|
on International Trade |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Andrada, Abigail E.; Moreno, Neil Irwin S. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has adopted free trade agreements (FTAs) as a major component of its trade policy in the last two decades. As it continues to pursue trade liberalization by joining these agreements, taking a closer look at the extent of FTA utilization in the country is important. This study attempted to reveal stylized facts on the trends of Philippine FTA utilization. Using the universe of trade transactions data, FTA utilization trends were observed both from the export and import perspectives. Throughout the 2010s, FTA utilization among exporters has been low; in contrast, utilization in imports has been expanding. The calculated utilization rates also revealed that Philippine imports have considerably utilized FTAs, except for imports from Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. The study also identified key determinants of FTA use among Philippine manufacturing firms, using a micro data set that merged the trade transactions data with the firm survey/census data. Results of the regression analysis suggest the significance of acquiring sufficient productivity levels, as well as knowledge and experience on international trade activities, in firm FTA use. It was also notable that foreign ownership was a positive determinant of FTA use in exports while exhibiting negative estimates on FTA import use. The state of competition at the industry level could negatively affect a firm’s decision to use FTAs, while larger preferential tariff margins could persuade firms to trade under FTA schemes. With regard to the Philippine FTA policy, the findings of this study highlight the need to focus on stimulating FTA use among Philippine firms. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | FTA utilization;self-selection;matched data;firm knowledge;free trade agreement |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2022-35&r=int |
| By: | Jakubik, Adam; Keck, Alexander; Piermartini, Roberta |
| Abstract: | Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed economic conditions. Using a newly built dataset of pre-Uruguay Round applied tariffs and relying on the theoretical framework of the terms-of-trade motive for trade agreements, we estimate hypothetical tariff commitments under current levels of market power and compare them with actual tariff commitments. We find that lower tariff commitments required to reflect current economic conditions would amount to a reduction in annual tariff costs of up to $26.4 billion - equivalent to nearly 10% of global tariff costs. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity between countries and sectors. The sectors with the largest potential tariff cost reductions are vehicles (HS 87) and machinery and appliances (HS 84-85). Product-level tariff reductions would range from 0 to 18.5 percentage points and are on average largest for China. In the past, the GATT/WTO system has updated tariff commitments through periodic rounds of negotiations, and our findings support the revival of the WTO's negotiation function in this area. |
| Keywords: | trade agreements, trade policy, terms of trade |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd202214&r=int |
| By: | Cevat G Aksoy (King‘s College London, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Sergei Guriev (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Daniel Treisman (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first large-scale, global evidence on the impact of the skill composition of trade on political approval. We show that political implications of trade shocks depend on the relationship between workers' skills and the characteristics of goods traded. Using Gallup World Poll surveys of a million respondents from 120 countries over 2005-2018, we show that growth in high skill intensive exports increases confidence in government among skilled individuals relative to unskilled ones. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. Growth in low skill intensive exports (imports) increases (decreases) confidence in government among unskilled individuals relative to skilled ones. To identify causal relationships, we construct instruments based on time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade in goods of different skill intensity. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Political approval, Skill intensity of trade |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03878678&r=int |
| By: | Michele Fioretti (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vanessa Alvariez (IDB - Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank); Ayumu Ken Kikkawa (UBC - University of British Columbia); Monica Morlacco (USC - University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | Global value chains (GVCs) typically involve large firms exerting bargaining power over the terms of trade. We develop a novel theory of international prices accounting for these features of GVCs and illustrate their e↵ect on the pass-through of trade shocks into import prices. We build a new dataset merging transaction-level U.S. import data with balance sheet data for both importers and exporters to evaluate the model's performance. Our estimated model generates more accurate predictions of pair-level price changes following trade shocks than standard models, improving the estimated impact of the 2018 trade war on aggregate U.S. import prices by 40-60%. |
| Date: | 2022–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03795736&r=int |
| By: | Clémence Lenoir (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Martin (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how frictions in the acquisition of new customers distort the allocation of activities across heterogeneous producers. We add bilateral search frictions in a Ricardian model of trade and use French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate search frictions faced by French exporters in foreign markets. Estimated coefficients display a strong degree of heterogeneity across countries and products, that correlates with various proxies for information frictions. A counterfactual reduction in the level of search frictions improves the efficiency of the selection process and increases the average productivity of exports, because the least productive exporters are pushed out of the market, whereas exports increase at the top of the productivity distribution. |
| Keywords: | Firm-to-firm trade, Search frictions, Ricardian trade model, Structural estimation |
| Date: | 2022–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03812813&r=int |
| By: | Christine Arriola; Charles Cadestin; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto; Sébastien Miroudot; Frank van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on international trade and supply chains. In February 2022, global trade was approaching pre-Covid levels in absolute terms, but with a different product and geographical composition resulting in a continued sense of tension in the trading system. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has added a new dimension of challenges as it has led to deliberate radical interruptions of trade linkages between Russia, Ukraine and many industrialised economies, with significant repercussions on prices of key commodities in the energy and agricultural sectors. |
| Keywords: | AMNE, General Equilibrium Model, ICIO analysis, Oil |
| JEL: | C67 C68 F14 F17 F5 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:265-en&r=int |
| By: | Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Martin (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | How do firms in global value chains react to input shortages? We examine micro-level adjustments to supply chain shocks, building on the Covid-19 pandemic as a case study. French firms sourcing inputs from China just before the early lockdown in the country experienced a relative drop in imports that increases from February to April 2020. This shock on input purchases transmits to the rest of the supply chain through exposed firm's domestic and export sales. Between February and June, firms exposed to the Chinese early lockdown experienced a 5.5% drop in domestic sales and a 5% drop in exports, in relative terms with respect to comparable non-exposed firms. The drop in foreign sales is entirely attributable to a lower volume of exports driven by a temporary withdrawal from occasional markets. We then dig into the heterogeneity of the transmission across treated firms. Whereas the ex-ante geographic diversification of inputs does not seem to mitigate the impact of the shock, firms with relatively high inventories have been able to absorb the supply shock better. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19 pandemic, Supply chain disruptions, Transmission of shocks, Global value chains |
| Date: | 2022–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03880125&r=int |
| By: | Ambroziak, Łukasz; Szczepaniak, Iwona; Pawlak, Karolina |
| Abstract: | The aim of the article is to describe Polish agri-food exports to countries that are members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and to assess the possibilities of developing exports of Polish food producers to the markets of these countries. The study was conducted, among others, with the use of a synthetic perspective index based on the data from Statistics Poland and the WITSComtrade database. The study shows that RCEP countries have a relatively low share in Polish agrifood exports (2.7% in 2021) and the trade is characterized by a permanently negative balance of food turnover. In the context of the growth prospects for Polish exports, it is difficult to speak of the same product groups in all markets. On the contrary, the choice of a given market determines which products can be regarded as prospective in Polish exports to this market. The products include not only processed, but also agricultural and low-processed ones. There is a risk that the agreement, which has been in force since the beginning of 2022, will cause the diversion effect, consisting in reducing the trade of RCEP countries with non-RCEP countries. This may make it necessary to adapt the trade strategy implemented on the Asian market by EU countries, including Poland, to the new conditions. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:329864&r=int |
| By: | Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Iqbal, Badar (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The present evolutionary phase in international economic and political relations involves the analysis of a "new globalization" and the profound reshaping of multipolarity. This article examines the fundamental elements of the newly emerging globalization morphology from a critical standpoint on the key aspects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It aims to discern why such free trade agreements are significant expressions and imprints of the unfolding new multipolarity. It focuses on crucial dimensions of such international socioeconomic agreements for deepened global cooperation and development. For the analysis, we distinguish between the structures of the previous globalization regime and some evolutionary dimensions of the gradual transition to a "new globalization" (e.g., the RCEP). We contend that such agreements enrich regional economic and social integration and can expand globalized transnational flows, thereby boosting efficient cooperation for reconstructing future dynamics of international economic development. |
| Keywords: | New globalization; Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership; New multipolarity; Global socioeconomic development; International political economy |
| JEL: | F13 F53 F69 O10 |
| Date: | 2022–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2022_007&r=int |
| By: | Islam, Mohammad Mohidul |
| Abstract: | Considering the importance of economic development in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the developing economies, this study aims to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and economic development in Bangladesh using annual time series data for the period of 1991 to 2020. The empirical analysis is performed employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test method in order to find out the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between FDI inflows and economic development. The empirical evidence from the study indicates that the economic development indicator does not have any statistically significant positive relationship with FDI inflows in the long-run. Other variables, namely the interest rate and export receipts, have a significant statistical relationship with FDI inflows, and the right direction of these two variables in terms of the expected sign of the coefficients shows that to some extent there has been an insightful economic relationship. However, in the short-run, such a relationship between FDI inflows and economic development is statistically justified, where the negative coefficient of the error correction term indicates the dynamic adjustment to the long-run equilibrium has been found to be made in a consistent manner, which is supported by the statistical theory. Finally, this study also suggests that the government should take proper measures to attract higher FDI inflows in order to ensure the faster socio-economic development of the country as a whole. |
| Date: | 2022–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tehuf&r=int |
| By: | Tuano, Philip Arnold P.; Alvarez, Julian Thomas B.; Pascua, Gerald Gracius Y.; Lanzona, Leonardo A.; Castillo, Rolly Czar Joseph T.; Lubangco, Cymon Kayle |
| Abstract: | This study aims to determine the potential impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on the Philippines using a CGE-microsimulation model. From the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database, the paper first considers the impact of CPTPPP on the Gross Domestic Product, sectoral exports and imports, and welfare in terms of incomes or consumption. After looking at the aggregate market-level reactions, the study then measures the adjustments at the worker level and determines how the exposure to trade with a particular region, such as the CPTPP, affected these adjustments. The results of the empirical analysis indicate the benefits and costs of joining the CPTPP. The benefits are: (a) shifts toward unskilled labor employment relative to other inputs; (b) increases in employment, both skilled and unskilled; (c) increases in returns for primary factors, particularly labor; and (d) increased employment in NCR, Central Luzon, but also in Western Mindanao and BARMM. The costs, however, are (a) lower GDP (as higher value-added industries decline); (b) greater trade deficits (due to accessibility of more imports); and (c) lower consumption surplus given more countries in the bloc but higher surplus if the bloc is limited to original members (trade diversion due to the participation). Participation in CPTPP is expected to result in losers and winners, which in this case, are labor-intensive industries. The losses, however, can be mitigated through government support by moving these industries toward the favored ones. Apart from taking advantage of the abundant unskilled labor resources in the country and reducing wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, participation in CPTPP also indicates export diversification. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | free trade agreements;computable general equilibrium;trade;employment;factor returns |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2022-39&r=int |
| By: | Clémence Lenoir (Direction Générale du Trésor); Julien Martin (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how frictions in the acquisition of new customers distort the allocation of activities across heterogeneous producers. We add bilateral search frictions in a Ricardian model of trade and use French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate search frictions faced by French exporters in foreign markets. Estimated coefficients display a strong degree of heterogeneity across countries and products that correlates with various proxies for information frictions. Markets with high estimated frictions are shown to display less dispersion in sales between high- and low-productivity firms, a consequence of the distortive impact of frictions. A counterfactual reduction in the level of search frictions significantly improves the efficiency of the selection process by pushing the least productive exporters out of the market while increasing export sales at the top of the productivity distribution. |
| Keywords: | Firm-to-firm trade, Search frictions, Ricardian trade model, Structural estimation |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03880110&r=int |
| By: | Maxime Delabarre (Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Through a review of the different forms of interdependence between states and economies, this essay argues that an international response resulting from further global cooperation is the way forward. As interdependence is now weaponized to serve countries' interests, coordination is needed across global players. Specifically, trade and economic negotiations have to take place. However, one needs also to consider deep modifications to the current international framework, strongly unbalanced. International taxation, global public goods, climate change, and global value chain are among the subjects needed to be reconsidered. |
| Keywords: | Economic, International, International law, International trade, international affairs, Interdependence, Diplomacy, State |
| Date: | 2021–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03334550&r=int |
| By: | Pamela E. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Raufhon Salahodjaev (Tashkent, Uzbekistan) |
| Abstract: | The debate on the need for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to increase female participation in the economic sector has intensified the coming into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and good governance. This study investigates the joint effects of governance (comprising of political, economic and institutional governance) and trade openness on female economic participation in SSA. The study employs panel data of 42 countries in SSA for the period 1996-2020. The empirical strategy is the dynamic System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) estimation technique. The findings reveal that the single effect of trade openness on female economic participation is necessary but not sufficient. Hence, complementing trade openness with good governance further enhances female economic participation in SSA. In general, the joint effect of trade openness and good governance should be a concern for policymakers to promote female economic inclusion. |
| Keywords: | economic integration; governance; female economic participation; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aak:wpaper:23/001&r=int |
| By: | Julien Martin (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Mathieu Parenti (ECARES - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics - ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We study how stickiness in business relationships influences the trade impact of aggregate uncertainty. We first develop a product-level index of relationship stickiness estimated from firm-to-firm trade data. The measure is grounded into a search model in which more stickiness implies longer firm-to-firm trade relationships, conditional on match quality. We then show that relationship stickiness shapes the dynamics of trade in response to uncertainty shocks. Episodes of high macroeconomic uncertainty are associated with less trade, mostly driven by a decrease in the net creation of firm-to-firm relationships. Such adjustments are significantly more pronounced among the most sticky product categories. |
| Keywords: | Firm-to-firm, Trade relationship, Specificity uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03880132&r=int |
| By: | Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cheon, Gahyeon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Korea and China established formal relations 30 years ago. Vibrant bilateral trade has significantly contributed to the economic growth of both nations. However, a remarkable turning point has occurred recently: Bilateral trade seemed to balance out due to China’s lockdown policy and Korea’s stronger corporate competitiveness, but Korea has posted a trade deficit with China since last year for all goods except semiconductors. Such a deficit could signal the beginning of structural change, though the figure over the last four months might be a temporary phenomenon. Over the last 30 years, high-tech industries have played an increasingly important role in bilateral trade in both exports and imports. In exports, semiconductors, petrochemicals, and displays have leading positions but in imports, Korean manufacturing is highly dependent on China, which is expanding into other industries. That means Korea is increasingly reliant on components or raw materials from China, leading to greater risk factors. To effectively respond to the short-term deficit and mid- to long-term structural changes in trade with China, Korea must diversify its import partners, even if doing so is likely to incur high costs in the short term. In the mid-term, the country should develop overseas resources and change its strategic approach to the global market, which should be framed as economic blocs, rather than as a single entity. Over the long term, Korea must strengthen its industrial competitiveness and foster high-tech human resources to secure key technologies to maintain its comparative advantage over China. For the first time in its modern trade with China, Korea recorded a trade deficit for four consecutive months, representing reversal major reversal of roles: Korea had in the past recorded enormous trade surpluses in the tens of billions of USD. Thus looking at the trade deficit with China provides an opportunity to consider changes in the bilateral trade balance, the reasons for these changes, and potential responses to them. |
| Keywords: | Bilateral Trade; Trade Deficit with China; China’s Lockdown Policy |
| JEL: | F13 O53 |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2022_017&r=int |
| By: | Julian Di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Andrei A Levchenko (University of Michigan System, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level value added, imports, and exports over the period 1995-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. Because the largest firms are the most likely to trade internationally, foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the large firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly more sensitive to foreign GDP growth. We then implement a quantitative framework calibrated to the full extent of the observed heterogeneity in firm size, exporting, and importing. We simulate the propagation of foreign shocks to the French economy and report one micro and one macro finding. At the micro level heterogeneity across firms predominates: 45 to 75% of the impact of foreign fluctuations on French GDP is accounted for by the "foreign granular residual"-the term capturing the larger firms' greater responsiveness to the foreign shocks. At the macro level, firm heterogeneity attenuates the impact of foreign shocks, with the GDP responses 10 to 20% larger in a representative firm model compared to the baseline model. |
| Keywords: | Granularity, Shock transmission, Aggregate fluctuations, Input linkages, International trade |
| Date: | 2022–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03880697&r=int |
| By: | Maxime Delabarre (Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the economic and institutional determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the world post-2000. To this end, I analyze the inwards stocks of FDIs using unilateral and bilateral data. Based on the UNCTAD database, I also study the impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on the inflow of FDIs. Main results provide evidence supporting the idea that treaties increase the inflows of FDIs in the years following their signature. However, regulations aimed at increasing the protection of property rights have a larger effect on the attractiveness for investors. This paper does not find robust evidence demonstrating that political stability and corruption level have significant effects. More, I demonstrate that an increase of tariffs in the host country results in an increase of FDIs, supposedly due to relocation processes. |
| Keywords: | FDI, economics, law, investments, institutions, political, development |
| Date: | 2021–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03334549&r=int |
| By: | Antoine Berthou (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Guillaume Horny (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | Exporting firms face foreign exchange risk when the export contract is invoiced in a foreign currency. For instance, for firms located outside of the United States, the US dollar is often used as a vehicle currency. The cost of hedging against this risk represents an additional trade cost for exporters, which is specific to the targeted destination. In this paper, we exploit an episode of heightened tensions in the USD/EUR foreign exchange market in July 2011, which increased the cost of hedging against US dollar fluctuations for French exporters. Using disaggregated information on bank balance sheets, bank-firm relationships and individual export flows for France, we show that exporters with a higher propensity to use hedging instruments reduced more their exports to "US dollar destinations" after this shock. For the average "treated" individual export flow in our sample, the increased hedging cost is equivalent to a counterfactual rise in trade costs by about 3 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Dollar invoicing, Trade finance, Firm-level exports |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03560975&r=int |
| By: | Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Marc Melitz (Department of Economics, Harvard University - Harvard University [Cambridge], NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Gianmarco Ottaviano (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy], CEP - LSE - Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We document how demand shocks in export markets lead French multiproduct exporters to reallocate the mix of products sold in those destinations. In response to positive demand shocks, French firms skew their export sales toward their best-performing products. We develop a theoretical model of multiproduct firms and derive the specific demand conditions (with endogenous price elasticities) needed to generate these product-mix reallocations. Under those demand conditions, the increased competition from demand shocks in export markets also induces productivity changes within the firm. We empirically test for this connection between demand shocks and the productivity of multiproduct firms. We find that this connection is economically substantial. |
| Date: | 2021–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03796148&r=int |
| By: | Vanessa Alviarez (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - UBC - University of British Columbia); Keith Head (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - UBC - University of British Columbia); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4–7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU. |
| Keywords: | multinationals, oligopoly, markups, concentration, firm effects, brands, frictions, mergers and acquisitions, competition policy |
| Date: | 2021–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03389199&r=int |
| By: | Rivera, John Paolo R.; Gutierrez, Eylla Laire M.; Bautista, Marie Jel D. |
| Abstract: | Amid the signing of various trade agreements defining trade rules and commitments for economies globally, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) both emerged as the largest and latest of them. Dubbed as a comprehensive agreement involving 15 and 11 member economies, respectively, the combined impact of these trade agreements is expected to facilitate deepened integration of its members to the global economy, resulting in global economic growth and poverty alleviation. Similarly, such agreements may also present threats such as increased inequality and stiffer competition for local industries, among others. Given the opportunities and threats of these agreements to participating economies, examining the readiness of enterprises to liberalization remains a crucial subject for its member economies and prospective members, including the Philippines. We look at the tourism industry in the Philippines, given its significance as the country’s top economic pillar heavily affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We explicate the continuously expanding role of the tourism industry in the economy, identify opportunities for and threats to the tourism industry, and assess the readiness of tourism enterprises to participate—by addressing the research problem: how can tourism enterprises prepare themselves for the impacts of trade liberalization brought about by RCEP and CPTPP? Using the triangulation method, specifically qualitative data gathering methods: document review, key informant interviews (KIIs), and focus group discussion (FGD), we construe that both agreements offer limited opportunities for tourism stakeholders to participate in liberalization activities, while tourism stakeholders remain challenged by issues pertaining to mutual recognition and standardization of skills and capacity development. Findings are useful to industry practitioners, government, and academicians understand where the tourism industry stands amid these local and international economic developments. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | CPTPP;enterprises;RCEP;trade liberalization;travel and tourism |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2022-38&r=int |
| By: | Lee, Sora (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Sungwoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | ● The value of the Korean won (KRW) to the US dollar (USD) recently fell to its weakest level since 2009, and its real effective exchange rate (REER) was even lower. - The KRW to USD rate exceeded 1, 400 won per dollar due to the tight monetary policy of major economies, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and fears of a recession. - Korea’s REER in July also posted a 4.8% year-on-year drop, boosting the price competitiveness of Korean exports. ● But since 2010, FX rates have had less of an impact on the exports of major Korean industries. - Exports of general machinery, cars, displays, and semiconductors have been less affected by FX fluctuations. - FX rates have a relatively smaller effect on the export of intermediate goods than that of final goods. ● The reduced influence of exchange rates on exports is due to Korea’s sophisticated export structure and greater participation in the global production system. - Since 2000, the Korean government has prioritized advanced technologies. Thanks to this policy, hightech industries, which value technological prowess over price competitiveness, now account for a relatively high proportion of exports. - With the globalization of production systems, intra-country trade, overseas production, and trade in intermediate goods have also expanded, reducing the impact of FX rates on export prices. ● It is important to upgrade the economic structure and establish a consistent support system for sectors most vulnerable to fluctuations in FX rates. - Companies highly vulnerable to FX risks should receive policy support and monitoring to prepare for price fluctuations. - Long-term tasks include pursuing differentiation with comparative advantage based on key technologies, securing a leading position in supply chains, and upgrading Korea’s economic structure by increasing the contributions of domestic consumption to economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; recession; FX rates; Export Structure |
| JEL: | F18 F21 O24 |
| Date: | 2022–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2022_020&r=int |
| By: | Finck, David; Tillmann, Peter |
| Abstract: | Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables with data from international container trade. Using a novel identification scheme, we augment conventional sign restrictions on the impulse responses by narrative information about three episodes: the Tohoku earthquake ¯ in 2011, the Suez Canal obstruction in 2021, and the Shanghai backlog in 2022. We show that a global supply chain shock causes a drop in euro area real economic activity and a strong increase in consumer prices. Over a horizon of one year, the global supply chain shock explains about 30% of inflation dynamics. We also use regional data on supply chain pressure to isolate shocks originating in China. Our results show that supply chain disruptions originating in China are an important driver for unexpected movements in industrial production, while disruptions originating outside China are an especially important driver for the dynamics of consumer prices. |
| Keywords: | Container Trade, Supply Chain, Inflation, Narrative Identification, Sign Restrictions |
| JEL: | E32 F14 F62 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:142022&r=int |
| By: | G.K., Chetan Kumar; K.B., Rangappa; S., Suchitra |
| Abstract: | Covid-19 Pandemic has slumped the growth of entire world economy. In this globalized world each economy is interdependent on one another. In this context, the degree and intensity of trade between major economies of the world has the potential to play a significant role in global economic recovery. Our study aims to analyze the intensity of pandemic’s shock on American trade with prominent emerging economies and its subsequent influence on world economic recovery. By doing so, our study aims to provide useful insights for policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, bi-lateral trade, major economies, emerging economies, GDP, VECM. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F17 F6 F62 F68 |
| Date: | 2022–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:115729&r=int |
| By: | Lea Marchal (University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, France.); Claire Naiditch (University of Lille, France.); Betul Simsek (Institute of Law and Economics - Hamburg University, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This is the first global study that quantifies the transmission channels through which foreign aid impacts migration to donor countries. We estimate a gravity model derived from a RUM model, using OECD data between 2011 and 2019 and an instrumentation strategy. Our identification takes advantage of data on multilateral aid provided by multilateral agencies which is non-donor specific. We find evidence that aid donated by a country increases migration to that country through an information channel. If that channel were the only one at play, a 1% increase in bilateral aid would induce a 0.17% increase in migration. In addition, a 1% increase in multilateral aid reduces migration from the less poor origin countries by 0.05% via a development channel. |
| Keywords: | Aid, Gravity, Migration |
| JEL: | F22 F35 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:egeiwp:egei_wp-2_2022&r=int |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Krzysztof Beck |
| Abstract: | We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995-2019 period, we use Bayesian Model Averaging and quantile regression to assess notably the relevance of unemployment and earnings. We find that the existence of a common border increases the number of net migrants by 172 people per 1000 inhabitants. In addition, 1000 PPP Euro increase in the difference in net annual salaries increases net migration by approximately 50 and 42 people per 1000 inhabitants in a working age of both countries under uniform and binomial-beta model prior, respectively. Moreover, one percentage point increase in the difference in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase in net immigration by approximately 6 and 3 persons by 1000 inhabitants in both countries. These results are also corroborated with the quantile regression results. Hence, human capital inside the EU is moving in search of higher cross-country earnings. |
| Keywords: | migration flows, earnings, unemployment, Bayesian Model Averaging, quantile regression, EU |
| JEL: | J61 J62 E24 F15 F22 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10131&r=int |
| By: | Joel Hellier (LEM-CNRS (UMR 9221), Lille Univ. and LEMNA, Nantes Univ.) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new explanation for the rise in top performers’ income based on an asymmetry in globalization, with one country producing globalized non-rivalrous performances (music, films, series, entertainment programmes etc.) whereas other countries produce purely domestic ones. In the country with globalized performances, the globalization dynamics (growing number of countries involved in the global market) entails an increase in the number and incomes of performers and an increase in inequality by the top. In countries with purely national performances, the participation in the global economy reduces the number and incomes of performers and lessens inequality by the top. In contrast, when globalization is symmetric (all countries producing globalized performances), there is no change in the number and incomes of performers in all countries compared to cultural autarky. These results are in line with several characteristics observed in activities directly impacted by the cultural supremacy of American and English speaking countries in the global economy: 1) the share of Anglo-Saxon countries in the top 100 richest is substantially higher for actresses, actors, singers and TV show and film producers than for other occupations (CEOs, businessmen etc.), 2) the increase in the share of top incomes is significantly higher in Anglo-Saxon countries, and 3) the increase in inequality is greater in those countries. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetry, Globalization, Inequality, Performers, Superstars. |
| JEL: | F66 J31 J44 L82 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2023-634&r=int |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mattia Guerini (University of Brescia, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]); Mauro Napoletano (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, SKEMA Business School, SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]) |
| Abstract: | We build a simple dynamic model to study the effects of technological learning, market selection and international competition in the determination of export flows and market shares. The model features two countries populated by firms with heterogeneous productivity levels and sales. Market selection in each country is driven by a finite pairwise Pólya urn process. We show that market selection leads either to a national or to an international monopoly in presence of a static distribution of firm productivity levels. We then incorporate firm learning and entry-exit in the model and we show that the market structure does not converge to a monopoly. In addition, we show that the extended model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade, industrial dynamics, rm dynamics, market selection, Pólya urn |
| Date: | 2022–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:halshs-03509092&r=int |
| By: | Felipe Saffie (University of Virginia Darden); Liliana Varela (London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Kei-Mu Yi (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; University of Houston; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)) |
| Abstract: | We study empirically and theoretically the effects of international capital flows on resource allocation. Using the universe of firms in Hungary, we show that financial openness triggers input-cost and consumption channels, with the latter dominant and reallocating resources toward high expenditure elasticity activities in the short-run. A multi-sector heterogeneous firm trade model replicates these dynamics. In the long-run, the model predicts that resources will shift towards manufacturing exports to service debt. Owing to endogenous terms of trade dynamics, countries face a trade-off between the speed of convergence and their long-run capital stock; thus, financial openness can lead to welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | firm dynamics, financial liberalization, reallocation, capital flows, welfare, non-homothetic preferences |
| JEL: | F15 F41 F43 F63 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2121&r=int |
| By: | Nils Haakon Lehr; Pascual Restrepo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how gradualism affects the welfare gains from trade, technology, and reforms. When people face adjustment frictions, gradual shocks create less adverse distributional effects in the short run. We show that there are welfare gains from inducing a more gradual transition via temporary taxes on trade and technology, and provide formulas for the optimal path for taxes. Our formulas account for the possibility that reallocation effort responds to policy, and for the existence of income taxes and assistance programs. Using these formulas, we compute the optimal temporary taxes needed to mitigate the distributional consequences of rising import competition from China and the deployment of automation technologies substituting for routine jobs. Our formulas can also be used to compute the optimal timing of economic reforms or trade liberalizations, and we apply them to study Colombia’s trade liberalization in 1990—a prominent example where optimal policy called for a more gradual reform. |
| JEL: | E24 F68 H23 J2 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30755&r=int |
| By: | Gabriele Pellegrino (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Orion Penner (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne); Etienne Piguet (University of Neuchatel); Gaetan de Rassenfosse (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between migration and the productivity of high-skilled workers, as captured by inventors listed in patent applications. Using machine learning techniques to identify inventors across patents uniquely, we are able to track the worldwide migration patterns of nearly one million individual inventors. Migrant inventors account for more than ten percent of inventors worldwide. The econometric analysis seeks to explain the recurring finding in the literature that migrant inventors are more productive than non-migrant inventors. We find that migrant inventors become about thirty-percent more productive after having migrated. The disambiguated inventor data are openly available. |
| Keywords: | inventor; productivity; skilled migration |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O30 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iip:wpaper:20&r=int |
| By: | Ozge Akinci; Gianluca Benigno; Hunter L. Clark; William Cross-Bermingham; Ethan Nourbash |
| Abstract: | In a January 2022 post, we first presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), a parsimonious global measure designed to capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators. In this post, we review GSCPI readings through December 2022, and then briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index. While supply chain disruptions have significantly diminished over the course of 2022, the reversion of the index toward a normal historical range has paused over the past three months. Our analysis attributes the recent pause largely to the pandemic in China amid an easing of “Zero COVID” policies. |
| Keywords: | Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI); COVID-19; COVID-19 pandemic; China; imbalances |
| JEL: | E31 F0 |
| Date: | 2023–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:95444&r=int |
| By: | Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Zhu, Zheyi (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | We look for statistically significant effects of Brexit events in UK data relationships. We find evidence of trade disruption by Brexit departure from the single EU market, much as we would expect. However, with investment, we find no statistically significant effects of Brexit. With GDP, inflation and interest rates we find some positive effects due to the fall in the pound. Previous work using weighted averages of selected other countries to mimic UK behaviour is inconsistent with economic theory stressing the key role of idiosyncratic country structure and shocks; it is also vulnerable to selection bias and does not test for the statistical significance of Brexit events, which have occurred in the context of enormous turbulence in the past few years in all economies due to Covid and the Ukraine war, besides accompanying large fiscal and monetary policy fluctuations. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/1&r=int |
| By: | Colas, Mark (University of Oregon); Sachs, Dominik (University of St. Gallen) |
| Abstract: | Low-skilled immigrants indirectly affect public finances through their effect on resident wages & labor supply. We operationalize this indirect fiscal effect in a model of immigration and the labor market. We derive closed-form expressions for this effect in terms of estimable statistics. An empirical quantification for the U.S. reveals an indirect fiscal benefit for one average low-skilled immigrant of roughly $750 annually. The indirect fiscal benefit may outweigh the negative direct fiscal effect that has previously been documented. This challenges the perception of low-skilled immigration as a fiscal burden. |
| Keywords: | immigration; fiscal impact; general equilibrium; |
| JEL: | H20 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:352&r=int |
| By: | Nicholas Oulton (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); London School of Economics (LSE); National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR); Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)) |
| Abstract: | What effect, if any, do changes in the terms of trade have on the level of output (GDP) or welfare? I examine this issue through two versions of a textbook, Hecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS), two-good model of a small, open economy. In the first version both goods are for final consumption. In the second, one good is an imported intermediate input into the other. In both versions, economic theory suggests that an improvement in the terms of trade raises welfare (consumption) but leaves aggregate output (GDP) unchanged. I then show that a national income accountant applying the principles of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) would reach the same conclusions. This follows from a continuous-time analysis using Divisia index numbers. However in the case where imports are intermediate inputs and competition is imperfect, an improvement in the terms of trade does raise GDP: the size of the effect depends on the size of the markup of price over marginal revenue. I argue that the continuous time Divisia approach is the right framework for national income accounting, even though it can only be implemented approximately in practice. For the time being the chained Fisher index (as in the US and Canada) or the chained Tornqvist are the best approximations rather than the chained Laspeyres (as used in Europe). But eventually it may be possible to develop indices which are good approximations to Divisia indices while also (unlike the Fisher and the Tornqvist) possessing their other desirable properties. |
| Keywords: | GDP, welfare, SNA, Hecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson, terms of trade, Divisia |
| JEL: | E01 F11 C43 D60 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2126&r=int |
| By: | Marjit, Sugata; Das, Gouranga G. |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to build up a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model of production and trade where capital is introduced outside the production process as a financial capital or credit as per the classical Ricardian wage fund framework. Stock of credit or financial capital as past savings, finances employment and machines or capital goods used in the process of production with Ricardian fixed coefficient technology. Availability of finance does not affect production or pattern of trade only nominal factor prices. International financial flows will not alter pattern of trade, but movement of labour and machines will. Such results change drastically when we consider a model with unemployment and finance dictates real outcomes much more than before. Introducing finance affects trade patterns with unemployment and especially with imperfect credit markets. In a two-period extension with credit demand being allocated for financing R&D expenditure, a rise in interest rate in the subsequent period will motivate perpetual tendencies to invest in machine via R&D so that machine-intensive sector will expand at the expense of the labour-intensive sector. This can account for the secular decline in labour income share as has been observed for some time. Our results are consistent with contemporary empirical evidence and have serious policy implications for role of financial development and quality of institutions for innovation and economic development. Numerical illustration corroborates this. |
| Keywords: | Wage-Fund, Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson, Ricardo, Inequality, Credit, General Equilibrium, Financial Development, Unemployment, Machine-biased Technical Change, R&D |
| JEL: | B12 B13 B17 F11 F63 F65 F16 O12 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1218&r=int |
| By: | Max Franks; Matthias Kalkuhl; Kai Lessmann |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2212.09299&r=int |
| By: | Shai Bernstein; Rebecca Diamond; Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon; Timothy McQuade; Beatriz Pousada |
| Abstract: | We characterize the contribution of immigrants to US innovation, both through their direct productivity as well as through their indirect spillover effects on their native collaborators. To do so, we link patent records to a database containing the first five digits of more than 230 million of Social Security Numbers (SSN). By combining this part of the SSN together with year of birth, we identify whether individuals are immigrants based on the age at which their Social Security Number is assigned. We find immigrants represent 16 percent of all US inventors, but produced 23 percent of total innovation output, as measured by number of patents, patent citations, and the economic value of these patents. Immigrant inventors are more likely to rely on foreign technologies, to collaborate with foreign inventors, and to be cited in foreign markets, thus contributing to the importation and diffusion of ideas across borders. Using an identification strategy that exploits premature inventor deaths, we find that immigrant inventors create especially strong positive externalities on the innovation production of their collaborators, while natives have a much weaker impact. A simple decomposition illustrates that immigrants are responsible for 36% of aggregate innovation, two-thirds of which is due to their innovation externalities on their native-born collaborators. |
| JEL: | J6 O31 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30797&r=int |
| By: | Huong, Pham Thu |
| Abstract: | Vietnam continuously liberalizes the financial market as a requirement for its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2007. This paper discusses the foreign investors’ expectation and their experience when penetrating into Vietnam’s market. The role of the foreign entrants is also assessed. By synthesizing and analyzing relevant research and reports, several important insights are discovered. Firstly, the presence of foreign investors and banks improves market competition, efficiency, and stability. Wholly and partly foreign-owned banks provide the spillover effects in management quality, in the introduction of world standard banking products and services, and in the application of information technology. Secondly, by looking into the foreign owned banks, it is found that the banks’ foreign investors are not likely to play an influential role in managing the banks they invested in. The motive of the investors to control the invested companies leads to their decision of holdings withdrawing. |
| Date: | 2022–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fkhbt&r=int |
| By: | Enrico Spolaore |
| Abstract: | This paper overviews theoretical and empirical contributions that study political borders from an economic perspective. It reviews theories of the number and size of nations focused on the trade-off between economies of scale in public-good provision and heterogeneity of preferences over public policies as well as on the factors affecting this trade-off, such as democratization, international openness, and conflict. It also reviews studies of political integration and disintegration that focus on economic inequality, redistribution policies, and the geographical distribution of resources. Finally, the paper discusses recent empirical studies that shed light on the relations among heterogeneity, conflict, and borders. This line of research is part of a growing literature on the interplay between cultural variables and economic and political outcomes. |
| Keywords: | borders, economies of scale, public goods, federalism, decentralization, ethnicity, culture, conflict |
| JEL: | D70 D74 F50 F55 H10 H40 H77 N40 P00 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10165&r=int |
| By: | Sengupta, Shruti (Oklahoma State University); Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | Using a district-level panel constructed from five waves of decennial Indian censuses covering 1971-2011, we examine the medium-term (1991-2001) and long-term (1991-2011) impacts of the 1991 Indian trade liberalization on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15-34 years. We exploit the fact that countrywide tariff reductions varied across industries creating exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial employment composition of the district. We find heterogeneous results across urban and rural areas. We find that urban areas of the districts that experienced larger tariff cuts experienced relative increase in marriage rate compared to the districts that experienced smaller tariff cuts. Moreover, tariff cuts positively affect the workforce participation among both young men and women in urban areas. However, there is no impact of tariff cuts on marriage rate or workforce participation among young for rural areas. In contrast, tariff cuts reduced fertility rate mostly in rural areas. |
| Keywords: | marriage, fertility, trade liberalization |
| JEL: | J12 J13 O12 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15841&r=int |
| By: | Berbée, Paul (ZEW); Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Garloff, Alfred (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action); Sommerfeld, Katrin (ZEW) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor demand effect of immigration on local labor markets by exploiting the fact that refugees in Germany are banned from working in the first few months after arrival. This natural experiment allows isolating a pure immigration-induced labor demand effect. For empirical identification we rely on the local presence of vacant military bases and on allocation quotas from a dispersal policy. The results are in line with our predictions from a theoretical framework with non-homothetic demand, where an increasing share in the consumption of necessities is associated with rising demand of labor-intensive goods: As the number of recently arrived refugees and thus the demand for locally produced goods increases, local employment increases particularly in non-tradable sectors in the short run. At the same time, unemployment drops while individual wages do not change significantly which can be traced back to widespread labor market rigidities in Germany. The isolation of labor demand effects complements the literature that isolates labor supply shocks from immigration, so as to gain a more comprehensive understanding of how immigration affects labor markets. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, employment, immigration, refugees, natural experiment |
| JEL: | J23 J60 H50 R10 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15833&r=int |
| By: | Park, Joungho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Boogyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Seok Hwan (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies); Kovsh, Andrey (Saint Petersburg State University) |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to identify new directions for energy cooperation between Korea and Russia, focusing on the areas of natural gas and hydrogen. In particular, we derive new directions and tasks for energy cooperation between the two countries, reflecting changes in the international energy environment, such as climate change and decarbonization, which are in full swing at the global level. To this end, this study is consisted of the following four parts. Part II examines the geopolitics of energy coming into the 21st century and Russia’s new energy strategy. Part III conducts an in-depth analysis of the energy cooperation strategies of China and Japan, major Northeast Asian countries, with Russia, and Part IV comprehensively evaluates Korea’s energy strategy and Korea-Russia energy cooperation. In conclusion, Part V presents new plans for Korea-Russia energy cooperation. As a side note, after carrying out this study, the policy environment for energy cooperation with Russia has significantly changed. Russia’s war against Ukraine is expected to change the landscape of global energy and its geopolitics in profound ways. In the midst of these significant changes, it is hoped that this study will serve as a meaningful reference for analyzing and forecasting the global energy dynamics surrounding Russia. |
| Keywords: | Russias Energy Strategy Korea-Russia Cooperation; Natural Gas and Hydrogen Sectors |
| Date: | 2022–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2022_026&r=int |
| By: | Julia Bredtmann (IZA Institute of Labour Economics); Sebastian Otten (Universitaet Duisburg Essen) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of source-country culture on the labor supply of female immigrants in Europe. We find that the labor supply of immigrant women is positively associated with the female-to-male labor force participation ratio in their source country, which serves as a proxy for the country’s preferences and beliefs regarding women’s roles. This suggests that the culture and norms of their source country play an important role for immigrant women’s labor supply. However, contradicting previous evidence for the U.S., we do not find evidence that the cultural effect persists through the second generation. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation, immigration, integration, culturaltransmission, epidemiological approach |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J61 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2227&r=int |
| By: | Magli, Martina (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | I provide new empirical evidence on the direct and indirect impact of services offshoring on local employment and wages, using a unique dataset on firms in the UK for the period 2000-2015. Exploiting variation in firms' services offshoring across labour markets, I show positive aggregate local labour employment and wage elasticity to services offshoring. Spillovers from offshoring to non-offshoring firms explain the positive results, and services offshoring complementary to firms' production has a larger effect than the offshoring competing with firms' outputs. Finally, I show that services offshoring widens firms' employment and wage dispersion within local labour markets. |
| Keywords: | services offshoring; local labour market; spillover effect; quantile analysis; |
| JEL: | F1 F16 J2 |
| Date: | 2022–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:351&r=int |
| By: | Alviarez, Vanessa; Cravino, Javier; Ramondo, Natalia |
| Abstract: | We measure the contribution of firm-embedded productivity to cross-country income differences. By firm-embedded productivity we refer to the components of productivity that differ across firms and that can be transferred internationally, such as blueprints, management practices, and intangible capital. Our approach relies on micro-level data on the cross-border operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We compare the market shares of the exact same MNE in different countries and document that they are about four times larger in developing than in high-income coun-tries. This finding indicates that MNEs face less competition in less-developed coun-tries, suggesting that firm-embedded productivity in those countries is scarce. We propose and implement a new measure of firm-embedded productivity based on this observation. We find a strong positive correlation between our measure and output per worker across countries. In our sample, differences in firm-embedded productivity account for roughly a third of the cross-country variance in output per worker. |
| Keywords: | Development Accounting;TFP;Multinational Enterprises |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:11020&r=int |
| By: | Bredtmann, Julia; Otten, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of source-country culture on the labor supply of female immigrants in Europe. We find that the labor supply of immigrant women is positively associated with the female-to-male labor force participation ratio in their source country, which serves as a proxy for the country's preferences and beliefs regarding women's roles. This suggests that the culture and norms of their source country play an important role for immigrant women's labor supply. However, contradicting previous evidence for the U.S., we do not find evidence that the cultural effect persists through the second generation. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation, immigration, integration, cultural transmission, epidemiological approach |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J61 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:986&r=int |
| By: | Xavier Mateos-Planas (Queen Mary University of London; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Giulio Seccia (Nazarbayev University) |
| Abstract: | Recent micro evidence shows that default on trade credit repayments is substantial. What is the role of trade credit default in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks? We build a heterogeneous-firms quantitative model where an intermediate input is purchased by final-goods producers partly on trade credit before observing the realisation of their productivity. A bad productivity shock may ex-post induce final good producers to skip payment to suppliers or, alternatively, liquidate via bankruptcy. Aggregate trade credit delinquency and liquidation are taken into account by input suppliers; the individual liquidation risk is priced in by lenders supplying bank credit. The response of trade-credit delinquency and bankruptcy, via their effect on intermediate input supplier’s markups, provides an amplification mechanism of aggregate shocks. We consider productivity, financial and volatility shocks. In a calibrated version of the model, the surge in trade credit default that follows a negative shock accounts for a large portion of the fall in output and employment, and feeds into further firm liquidation and delinquency. For instance, trade-credit default accounts for about one third of the impact of a volatility shock. |
| Keywords: | trade credit, default, delinquency and bankruptcy, heterogeneous firms, amplification of macroeconomic shocks, markups |
| JEL: | D21 D25 E32 E44 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2125&r=int |
| By: | Łuczyk, Iwona |
| Abstract: | The aim of the article is to present the phenomenon of land grabbing and its impact on ensuring food security in Africa between 2000 and 2020. The analysis used data on large-scale land acquisitions from the Land Matrix database and legal acts from the online contracts repository, i.e., the Open Land Contracts (OLC) kept at Columbia University. In the article non-reactive research methods were used, i.e., the analysis of the literature on the subject as well as statistical and descriptive methods. Between 2000 and 2020, Africa recorded the highest number of large-scale land acquisitions on a global scale. Transactions were concluded throughout the period, although most of them were concluded from 2007 to 2011, i.e., during the periods of higher prices of agricultural products. In terms of specific objectives, agricultural transactions were dominated by food crops (182 transactions and over 1 million ha of contracted land) and crop production for biofuels (55 transactions and almost 1.5 million ha of land). 64.3% of agricultural land purchase transactions were in the operational phase, i.e., in production. The conducted research allowed for drawing the following conclusions: some of the agreements omitted the issue of food security of local communities altogether, which contradicts the declarations of national governments, whose aim was to guarantee it as a result of the defectiveness of the contracts (vide the methods of their conclusion and enforcement), they are unilaterally invalidated by the national courts in the host country or are sued by investors; land grabbing contributes to the loss or reduction of food security in developing countries that seek to obtain investments in arable land. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2022–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:329863&r=int |
| By: | Celero, Jocelyn O.; Garabiles, Melissa R.; Katigbak-Montoya, Evangeline O. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has been a major source of female domestic labor in East Asia. The migration of Filipino female household service or domestic workers contributed to the sustained economic growth in countries like Japan, Hong Kong, PRC, and Singapore, amidst chronic demographic and labor issues. Being literate in the health and social security systems is vital to ensuring the well-being of Filipino migrant workers and the sustainable development of both the Philippines and East Asian countries. This scoping study examines the state of scholarship on health and social security systems literacy of Filipino migrant workers in East Asian countries, specifically Japan, Hong Kong SAR, and Singapore, as well as the Philippines. Using the Six-Stage Methodological Framework for Scoping Review adapted from notable social researchers (Arksey and O’Malley 2005; Levac, Colquhoun and O’Brien 2010; Liu et al. 2015) and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses-Extension for Scoping Reviews or PRISMA-ScR, the study searched for published literature on six databases and extracted studies based on criteria for inclusion using Covidence software. This scoping review showed that of the 60 studies analyzed, 25 focused on Japan, 16 on Hong Kong, and eight looked at the case of Singapore (including three, which focused on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN); the remaining 11 were about the health and social security systems in the Philippines for OFWs. The study found no existing conceptualization of migrant health and social security systems literacy in East Asia and the Philippines. While a few studies utilize the term ‘health literacy’, these papers also fail to operationalize the concept in the research. Most health and social security systems studies are concerned with accessibility more than literacy. A few studies that include Filipino migrant workers’ experiences with the health and social security systems of destination countries only go so far as describing such experiences using the words “knowledge”, “understanding”, and “familiarity.” To facilitate consultation as the sixth stage of the scoping review process, the study conducted focus group discussions with Filipino domestic workers in Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore and semi-structured interviews with select Philippine government agencies. Findings revealed that migrants themselves, governance, social networks, informal channels, and media contribute toward enabling or constraining Filipino migrant workers’ health or social security systems literacy. Most Filipino migrant workers are systems literate only to the extent that they are familiar with and partially understand the basic social and health security schemes offered in destination countries and the Philippines. This study proposes a framework for defining health and social security systems literacy both as a complex process that is intimately tied to the portability of healthcare and social security and as an individual migrant competence that consists of shifting levels of connection to the health and social security systems of the Philippines and destination countries. It offers several research and policy recommendations that advance collaboration between the Philippine government, academics, migrant NGOs, and Filipino migrant workers. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | health system;social security system;health and social security systems literacy;overseas Filipino workers;Japan;Hong Kong;Singapore;Philippines |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2022-46&r=int |
| By: | Oleg Itskhoki (University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA)); Dmitry Mukhin (London School of Economics (LSE); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | We show that the exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate depending on the specific mix of sanctions imposed, even if the underlying equilibrium allocation is the same. Sanctions that limit a country’s imports tend to appreciate the country’s exchange rate, while sanctions that limit exports and/or freeze net foreign assets tend to depreciate it. Increased precautionary household demand for foreign currency is another force that depreciates the exchange rate, and it can be offset with domestic financial repression of foreign currency savings. The overall effect depends on the balance of currency demand and currency supply forces, where exports and official reserves contribute to currency supply and imports and foreign currency precautionary savings contribute to currency demand. Domestic economic downturn and government fiscal deficits are additional forces that affect the equilibrium exchange rate. The dynamic behavior of the ruble exchange rate following Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resulting sanctions is entirely consistent with the combined effects of these mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2206&r=int |
| By: | Zsófia L. Bárány (CEU - Central European University [Budapest, Hongrie], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Nicolas Coeurdacier (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Stéphane Guibaud (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the importance of worldwide demographic evolutions in shaping capital flows across countries. Our lifecycle model incorporates crosscountry differences in fertility and longevity as well as differences in countries' ability to borrow inter-temporally and across generations through social security. In this environment, global aging triggers uphill capital flows from emerging to advanced economies, while country-specific demographic evolutions reallocate capital towards countries aging more slowly. Our quantitative multi-country overlapping generations model explains a large fraction of long-term capital flows across advanced and emerging countries. |
| Keywords: | Aging, Household Saving, International Capital Flows |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03803869&r=int |
| By: | Magdalena Adamus (Institute of Experimental Psychology of the Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Czech Republic); Matúš Grežo (Institute of Experimental Psychology of the Centre of Social and Psychological Sciences, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | Extant literature shows that well-being is one of the key drivers of attitudes towards migrants as well as preferences for asylum and refugee policies. To investigate the underpinnings of these relationships, two studies on representative samples of 600 Slovaks each were conducted before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and during its initial phase. The results show that well- being had a stable positive relationship with attitudes towards migrants across the studies, albeit not with preferences for asylum and refugee policies. During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the negative feelings elicited by the war predicted preferences for asylum and refugee policies beyond well-being. The divergence between the attitudes towards migrants and the preferences urges that there is a need to extend the traditional focus on general attitudes towards migrants. Finally, the results indicate that incorporating psychological factors, such as well-being and emotional responses to the looming threat of war, may considerably inform the debate surrounding the support for inclusive asylum and refugee policies. |
| Keywords: | well-being, attitudes towards migrants, asylum and refugee policies, migration crisis, common ingroup identity model |
| JEL: | D64 F22 I31 K37 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2023-01&r=int |
| By: | Johannes Buggle (University of Vienna [Vienna]); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Seyhun Orcan Sakalli (King‘s College London); Mathias Thoenig (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (of 1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12 to 20%, and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6 to 10%. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Migration Policy, Counterfactual History, Nazi Germany |
| Date: | 2022–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03799567&r=int |