nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
93 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Trade Policy along the Global Value Chain: A Rationale for the Existence of Deep Trade Agreements By Hartmut Egger; Christian Fischer-Thöne
  2. FDI Inflows and Domestic Firms: Adjustments to New Export Opportunities By Brian McCaig; Nina Pavcnik; Woan Foong Wong
  3. The Effects of Heterogeneous Sanctions on Exporting Firms —Evidence from Denmark By Ina C. Jäkel; Søren Østervig; Erdal Yalcin
  4. Vietnam’s Global Value Chains Participation and Policy Implications for South Korea-Vietnam Economic Cooperation By Truong, Quang Hoan
  5. On Trade Policy Preference and Offshoring Ties By Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Basu, Arnab K.; Chau, Nancy H.; Mitra, Devashish
  6. A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: Knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects By Kox, Henk L.M.
  7. The Determinants of U.S. olive oil imports By Hammami, A. Malek; Beghin, John C.
  8. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement By Igbatayo, Samuel
  9. FDI-led growth models: Sraffian supermultiplier models of export platforms and tax havens By Woodgate, Ryan
  10. A Review of the First Decade of the Korea-EU FTA By Joe , Dong-Hee
  12. Retailer-driven value chains in the agri-food sector: An analysis of French firms By Agbekponou, Kossi Messanh; Cheptea, Angela; Latouche, Karine
  13. Opening the black box of distance: evidence from Italy, 1862-1938 By Absell, Christopher David; Incerpi, Andrea
  14. Economic effects of FDI: How important is rising market concentration? By Vrolijk, Kasper
  15. Gravity and heterogeneous trade cost elasticities By Chen, Natalie; Novy, Dennis
  16. The US-China phase one trade deal: An economic analysis of the managed trade agreement By Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian
  17. Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation By Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
  18. Sea change in EU trade policy: Opportunities for diversification in the Indo-Pacific By Hilpert, Hanns Günther
  19. Study of the influence of various factors on the intensity and routing of imports to Russia and exports from Russia By Kuznetsov Dmitryi
  20. Two-sided Heterogeneity:New Implications for Input Trade By Tomohiro Ara
  21. Global Value Chain Participation and Labour Productivity in Manufacturing Firms in Viet Nam: Firm-Level Panel Analysis By Upalat Korwatanasakul; Tran Thi Hue
  22. Understanding Hainan Free Trade Port: China's Efforts to Explore High-level Opening-up By Wei, Wenfeng
  23. Footprint of Export-Related GHG Emissions from Latin America and the Caribbean By Li, Kun
  24. Can Russia reorient its trade and financial flows? By Simola, Heli
  25. Firm-level export and import survival over the business cycle By Gregory Corcos; Silviano Esteve-Pérez; Salvador Gil-Pareja; Yuanzhe Tang
  26. Linking the knowledge-capital model of foreign direct investment with national knowledge systems By Kox, Henk L.M.
  27. COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector By Ahn, Soojung; Steinbach, Sandro
  28. International Spread of Anti-dumping Measures and Diversification of Investigation Methodologies By Cho, Moonhee; Lee, Cheon-Kee; Kang, Min Ji; Chung, Min-chirl
  29. The Impact of ISO 14001 Environmental Standards on Exports By Blyde, Juan S.
  30. The Global Sanctions Data Base – Release 3: Covid-19, Russia, and Multilateral Sanctions By Constantinos Syropoulos; Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Aleksandra Kirilakha; Erdal Yalcin; Yoto V. Yotov
  31. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on international trade By Zsolt Darvas; Catarina Martins
  32. Do Trade Agreements Contribute to the Decline in Labor Share? Evidence from Latin American Countries By González Rozada, Martín; Ruffo, Hernán
  33. Exporting and Environmental Performance: Where You Export Matters By Blyde, Juan S.; Ramírez, Mayra A.
  34. The challenge of decarbonisation and EU-Turkey trade relations: A long-term perspective By Tastan, Kadri
  35. 한ㆍEU FTA 10주년 성과 평가 및 시사점(Ten Years of Korea-EU FTA: Achievements and Way Forward) By Joe, Dong-Hee; Kim, Jong Duk; Jang, Youngook; Oh, Taehyun; Lee, Hyun Jean; Chung, Minchirl; Yoon, Hyung Jun; Kang, Yoo-Duk
  36. Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition By Simola, Heli
  37. Sequentially exporting products across countries By Facundo Albornoz; Hector F. Calvo Pardo; Gregory Corcos
  38. Impact of the Russian ruble exchange rate on the prices of Russian exporters By Kuznetsov Dmitry; Firanchuk Alexandr
  39. Import Competition, Formalization, and the Role of Contract Labor By Chakraborty, Pavel; Singh, Rahul; Soundararajan, Vidhya
  40. Asymmetric Effects of Trade and FDI: The Role of Country Size and Bridge Multinational Production By Allub, Lian; Aragon, Nicolas
  41. When Immigrants Meet Exporters: A Reassessment of the Immigrant Wage Gap By Léa Marchal; Guzman Ourens; Giulia Sabbadini
  42. Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations By Julian Di Giovanni; Andrei A Levchenko; Isabelle Mejean
  43. 미ㆍ중 갈등시대 중국의 통상전략 변화와 시사점(China’s New Trade Strategy Amid U.S-China Confrontation) By Hyun, Sang Baek; Yeon, Wonho; Na, Suyeob; Kim, Youngsun; Oh, Yun Mi
  44. Stata–Python API for bulk data download: Example with UN Comtrade By Ka Lok Wong
  45. Pros and Cons of Globalization: Income-Based Attitudes By Assaf Razin
  46. The Effects of Online Export Promotion Policies for SMEs in Korea By Koo , Kyong Hyun
  47. The Covid-19 Pandemic and European Trade Patterns: A Sectoral Analysis By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Anamaria Diana Sova; Robert Sova
  48. The Impact of Immigration and Integration Policies On Immigrant-Native Labor Market Hierarchies By Guzi, Martin; Kahanec, Martin; Kureková, Lucia Mýtna
  49. Small and Internationalised Firms Competing with Chinese Exporters By Klaus Friesenbichler; Andreas Reinstaller
  50. Community Networks and Trade By Boken, Johannes; Gadenne, Lucie; Nandi, Tushar; Santamaria. Marta
  51. On Some “New” Interpretations of Ricardo’s Principle of Comparative Advantages By Parrinello, Sergio
  52. Duty Inversion and Effective Protection: A Theoretical Analysis By Aditya Bhattacharjea; Kanika Pathania; Uday Bhanu Sinha
  53. Who cares about sanctions? Observations from annual reports of European firms By Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
  54. Endogenous Product Adjustment and Exchange Rate Pass-Through By Andreas Freitag; Sarah M. Lein; Sarah Marit Lein
  55. Does the Rise of China Lead to the Fall of European Welfare States? By Erling Barth; Henning Finseraas; Anders Kjelsrud; Karl O. Moene
  56. Immigration, Innovation, and Growth By Stephen J Terry; Thomas Chaney; Konrad B Burchardi; Lisa Tarquinio; Tarek A Hassan
  58. Forecasting M&A deals with MIDAS count model By : Ojea Ferreiro, Javier; : Gregori, Wildmer Daniel; : Nardo, Michela
  59. Immigration and the top 1 percent By Advani, Arun; Koenig, Felix; Pessina, Lorenzo; Summers, Andy
  60. Multinationals and services imports from havens: when policies stand in the way of tax planning By Joana Garcia
  61. Term-Structure of Foreign Direct Investment Into Vietnam Economy By Ly Dai Hung
  62. Japan and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) By Mie Oba
  63. The Export Effect of Servitization of Manufacturing By Kim, Hyunsoo; Kang, Jungu; Keum, Hyeyoon; Jung, Jae Wook
  64. 주요 선진국의 외국인직접투자 정책변화와 시사점 (Changes and Implications of FDI Policies in Major Developed Countries) By Jeong, Hyung-Gon; Lee, Ara
  65. How Foreign Aid Affects Migration: Quantifying Transmission Channels By Léa Marchal; Claire Naiditch; Betül Simsek
  66. Do Immigrants Ever Oppose Immigration? By Kaeser, Aflatun; Tani, Massimiliano
  67. External Debts and Trade Balance: An International Evidence By Ly Dai Hung
  68. Seafood Supply and Demand Disruptions: The Covid-19 Pandemic and Shrimp By Schmitz, Andrew; Nguyen, Ly
  69. Rethinking regional integration in Africa for inclusive and sustainable development: introduction to the special issue By McKay, Andy; Ogunkola, Olawale; Semboja, Haji Hatibu
  70. The impact of corruption on migration flows: evidence from Sub Saharan African countries By Bianca Balsimelli Ghelli; Elton Bequiraj; Marilena Giannetti
  71. European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis By Sirgit Perdana; Marc Vielle; Maxime Schenkery
  72. Bolstering the India-Germany strategic partnership: Deepening commonalities, broadening the agenda, acknowledging differences By Wagner, Christian; D'Souza, Shanthie Mariet
  73. Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions By Erel, Isil; Jang, Yeejin; Weisbach, Michael S.
  75. The EU-CEAP impacts on developing countries: Recommendations for development policy By To, Jenny
  76. Global Trade Cycle and Financial Cycle in Vietnam Economy By Ly Dai Hung
  77. International spillovers of social challenges as a result of sanctions against Russia: An evaluation of the Azerbaijani case By Niftiyev, Ibrahim
  78. Have trade agreements been bad for America? By Alan Wm. Wolff; Robert Z. Lawrence; Gary Clyde Hufbauer
  79. A Nowcasting Model of Exports Using Maritime Big Data By Kakuho Furukawa; Ryohei Hisano
  80. The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth By Agustín S. Bénétrix; Hayley Pallan; Ugo Panizza
  81. [WTO Case Review Series No.40] Turkey – Pharmaceutical Products (EU) (DS583): The first use of the DSU Article 25 appeal arbitration mechanism in the context of the dysfunction of the WTO Appellate Body (Japanese) By HIRAMI Kenta
  82. DDA 서비스협상의 주요 쟁점 평가와 시사점(Major Issues of DDA Services Negotiations and Implications for Korea) By Kim, June Dong
  83. The Role of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in Promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) By Fusanori Iwasaki; Keita Oikawa
  84. Formation of trade networks by economies of scale and product differentiation By Chengyuan Han; Malte Schr\"oder; Dirk Witthaut; Philipp C. B\"ottcher
  85. Geopolitical Risk in the Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition and Economic Security By Heo, Jaichul
  86. Terrorism, Customs and fraudulent Gold exports in Africa By Fawzi Banao; Bertrand Laporte
  87. How International Experience Helps Shape Labor Market Outcomes By Davidson, Carl; Heyman, Fredrik; Matusz, Steven; Sjöholm, Fredrik; Chun Zhu, Susan
  88. Global Supply Chains in a Post-Covid Multipolar World: Korea’s Options By Leipziger, Danny; Yusuf , Shahid
  89. Argentina’s external insertion during both Convertibility and Post-convertibility: agro-export specialization and financial dependence By Miguel Montanya
  90. Social Upgrading in Global Agricultural Value Chains:What impacts labour relations in fruit production in the Brazilian Northeast? By Penha, Thales
  91. Methodological approaches to assessing illegal imports and the level of collection of customs payments By Balandina Galina
  92. French utilities committed to globalization (19th-21st centuries) By Hubert Bonin
  93. International patents: the role of large multinational firms in building competitive metropolitan areas By Patricia Laurens; Antoine Schoen; Philippe Larédo

  1. By: Hartmut Egger; Christian Fischer-Thöne
    Abstract: This paper sets up a model of trade, in which two countries with differing levels of technology specialize in the production of sub-stages of the global value chain. In the open economy, the technologically backward country exports intermediates in exchange for imports of a homogeneous consumption good from the technologically advanced country. This vertical specialization gives the two countries access to different policy instruments for appropriating rents in the open economy. The technologically advanced country can impose an import tariff on intermediates to lower foreign wages and increase national welfare. An import tariff is ineffective for the technologically backward economy, which can instead lower institutional quality and allow its workers to consume intermediate goods at a utility discount. In a non-cooperative policy equilibrium, the incentives to appropriate rents can be strong enough to lower welfare of the two countries to their autarky levels. This gives scope for a deep trade agreement that conditions tariff reductions on institutional quality improvements and is beneficial for both countries. Empirical evidence shows support for the main mechanisms of the model.
    Keywords: global value chains, trade policy, institutional quality, tariffs, deep trade agreements
    JEL: F12 F13 F68
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Brian McCaig; Nina Pavcnik; Woan Foong Wong
    Abstract: We investigate the long-term effects of export opportunities to a large destination market on multinational affiliates and domestic firms in a low-income host country. The US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement reduced US import tariffs on exports from Vietnam. Tariff reductions led to entry of foreign and private firms and to employment expansion in formal manufacturing, with foreign entrants contributing most to employment growth. State firms stall employment reallocation through slower contraction. Half of tariff-induced foreign entrant growth is post-entry and exporter-driven. Foreign entrants are from non-US sources, highlighting the importance of studying FDI from multiple source countries in a lower-income host.
    JEL: F13 F14 O14 O19
    Date: 2022–12
  3. By: Ina C. Jäkel; Søren Østervig; Erdal Yalcin
    Abstract: Sanctions encompass a wide set of policy instruments restricting cross-border economic activities. In this paper, we study how different types of sanctions affect the export behaviour of firms to the targeted countries. We combine Danish register data, including information on firm-destination-specific exports, with information on sanctions imposed by Denmark from the Global Sanctions Database. Our data allow us to study firms’ export behaviour in 62 sanctioned countries, amounting to a total of 453 country-years with sanctions over the period 2000-2015. Methodologically, we apply a two-stage estimation strategy to properly account for multilateral resistance terms. We find that, on average, sanctions lead to a significant reduction in firms’ destination-specific exports and a significant increase in firms’ probability to exit the destination. Next, we study heterogeneity in the effects of sanctions across (i) sanction types and sanction packages, (ii) the objectives of sanctions, and (iii) countries subject to sanctions. Results confirm that the effects of sanctions on firms’ export behaviour vary considerably across these three dimensions.
    Keywords: sanctions, firm exports, trade margins
    JEL: F51 F13 F14 F52
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Truong, Quang Hoan (Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences)
    Abstract: The term “value chain” refers to the whole production process of a good or service from the design and raw material processing to manufacturing and market services for the final customers. A global value chain (GVC) indicates production across multiple countries (Simola 2021). Wang et al. (2017) distinguish between simple and complex GVC activities and classify GVC participation in the following four activities: (i) export its domestic value added in intermediate exports used by a direct importing country to produce products for the importing country’s final consumption (simple GVC); (ii) export its domestic value added in intermediate exports used by a direct importing country to produce products for importing countries’ exports to third countries (complex GVC forward participation); (iii) importing foreign value added in intermediate imports to produce products for domestic use (simple GVC); (iv) importing foreign value-added in intermediate imports to produce products for its gross exports (complex GVC backward participation). Trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are considered to be the main driving factors of Vietnam’s economic growth. However, Vietnam’s growth rates became substantially lower in the first decade of the 21st century and even lower after 2008, putting the country in high danger of falling into a middle-income trap (Nguyen and Truong 2022). Overcoming this huge challenge will require Vietnam to make greater progress in GVC participation, which can only be obtained by implementing the appropriate policy reforms and adjustments, particularly in FDI, trade, and industrial and institutional areas. In this regard, assistance and cooperation from Korea – an advanced economy, especially a top trade and FDI partner of Vietnam – would play a significant role in improving Vietnam’s GVCs participation. Against this backdrop, this study aims to examine Vietnam’s GVC participation. It then assesses the major challenges faced by Vietnam’s GVC participation. Based on this, the research draws relevant policy implications for Vietnam–South Korea (hereafter Korea) economic cooperation to improve Vietnam’s GVC participation in the following years.
    Keywords: Vietnam’s Global Value Chains Participation and Policy Implications; South Korea-Vietnam Economic Cooperation
    Date: 2022–09–15
  5. By: Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Mitra, Devashish (Syracuse University)
    Abstract: This paper unpacks the role of the domestic content of imports as a novel source of policy interdependence along the global supply chain. We show how a rise in local contents embodied in imports can skew national trade policy preferences, and pull upstream and downstream countries in asymmetric ways with respect to (i) the nature of unilaterally optimal trade policy prescriptions, and (ii) the attractiveness of leveraging market access-based dispute settlement procedures. We discuss the pros and cons of deep trade integration as a remedy, involving well-enforced labor standards both upstream and downstream as an integral part of trade agreements.
    Keywords: offshoring, dispute settlement reciprocity, labor standards
    JEL: F11 F13 F16 F66 O19 O24
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: Kox, Henk L.M.
    Abstract: The paper develops a stand-alone and testable gravity model to explain international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI). The core model is based on knowledge-based gravitational forces that are directly or indirectly linked to a country's economic mass (GDP). The micro-economic part of the model explains the bilateral extensive FDI margin. Firms self-select into FDI if their productivity is high enough to overcome the fixed costs of setting up costs a foreign subsidiary, using its proprietary knowledge assets as crystallization kernel. Aggregated at country level, the model explains the occurrence of zero FDI flows between countries. The bilateral part of the model accounts for direct FDI friction costs. The model is generalized to a n-country world by also accounting for the relative FDI friction costs of all countries, quantified via FDI-based multilateral resistance terms. The paper derives testable predictions from the model. The model implications have high potential policy relevance.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment,firm behaviour,decision model,structural gravity,zero FDI flows,policy implications
    JEL: D23 F23 G32 L1
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Hammami, A. Malek; Beghin, John C.
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of U.S. bilateral imports of olive oil and their dynamics from shocks in foreign supplies and changes in U.S. olive oil demand, using an augmented gravity framework that leads to an equilibrium of bilateral trade flows from olive oil exporters to the U.S. market. The empirical specification is applied at the disaggregated HS-6 level in a panel dataset, and three estimation techniques (truncated OLS, PPML, Heckman), for which the latter two account for zero trade flows, the extensive margin of trade and the potential censored distribution of exports with zero trade flows. We run Reset and HPC tests to qualify our results. On the supply side, exporters’ capacity to exports, multilateral trade resistance, and immigrants’ networks into the US are strong determinants of the bilateral trade flows for both aggregate olive oil exports and for virgin olive oil exports, On the consumer side, U.S. GDP, the import unit value, and immigrant network effects are robust determinants of bilateral flows as well for aggregate and virgin olive oil trade flows. Migrants’ stock, exporters’ GDP and population, and total exports revenues increase the probability of an exporter entering the U.S. market. We could not find robust evidence of consumer behavior being influenced by popular press measures of the emergence of Mediterranean diet and olive oil, or measures of cultural globalization of U.S. consumers.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12–15
  8. By: Igbatayo, Samuel (Afe Babalola University, Nigeria)
    Abstract: Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
    Keywords: The; Emergence; of; African; Continental; Free; Trade; Area; Agreement; and; Lessons;
    Date: 2022–10–27
  9. By: Woodgate, Ryan
    Abstract: This paper develops two Sraffian supermultiplier models of two different kinds of economies that are dependent upon foreign direct investment (FDI): the "export platform FDI-led" growth model and the "tax haven FDI-led" growth model. The former is driven by the growth of the exports of foreign-owned firms and is associated with greenfield FDI inflows, whereas the latter is driven by the growth of profits booked at foreign-owned shell companies that are partly absorbed through taxation and is associated with intangible FDI inflows. The two models achieve demand, output, and income growth via fundamentally different channels yet appear similarly export-led given how profit shifting artificially inflates the net exports of tax havens. Based on these models, a set of empirical indicators are proposed to differentiate exportplatform from tax haven economies. In contrast to Bohle/Regan (2021), who characterise output growth in both Hungary and Ireland as being led by the exports of foreign-owned firms, the model and indicators proposed here support the hypothesis that Ireland is closer to the tax haven FDI-led growth model.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment,growth model,multinational corporation,tax haven
    JEL: E12 P44 F21 F23 F62
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: Last year marked the tenth anniversary of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union (EU) and Korea, which entered into force in 2011. The EU is the world's largest economy and Korea's third largest trade partner, only after China and the United States. Back when the FTA nego-tiations began in 2007, the EU was Korea's second largest export destination, from which Korea enjoyed the largest surplus. Al-so, more than 35 per cent of Korea's foreign direct investment came from the member states of the EU. Korea is also a major econ-omy and a major trade partner of the EU, especially in Asia. The FTA with Korea was the first case of the EU's “next generation” FTAs, and is considered to have served as a benchmark for the EU's bilateral trade agreements thereafter (Kang 2016). As for Korea, it was the first FTA with a major economy, even before the US, its traditional ally, and China, its closest neighbor. Because of its importance, the Korea-EU FTA has received attention from economics and trade policy. KIEP also took a look at the first decade of its implementation last year (Joe et al. 2021). This Brief introduces some of the findings in Joe et al. (2021), fo-cusing on the impact of the FTA on the bi-lateral economic relationship between the two sides.
    Keywords: Korea-EU FTA; 한-EU FTA
    Date: 2022–07–06
  11. By: Aliev Timur (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In this paper the authors analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on international trade. Special attention is paid to the issues of trade policy uncertainty in the sphere of tariff regulation
    Keywords: uncertainty in trade, international economics
    Date: 2021–01
  12. By: Agbekponou, Kossi Messanh; Cheptea, Angela; Latouche, Karine
    Abstract: The present paper investigates the link between the decision of French agri-food firms to supply retailers with private-label (PL) products and their integration in global value chains (GVCs). In line with the recent literature, we identify firms that participate to GVCs by the ones that engage simultaneously in import and export activities. We consider the certification with the private International Featured Standard (IFS), required by all retailers operating in France, as an indicator of firms’ choice to become private label suppliers. We combine firm-level data from the AMADEUS database and French customs over the 2006-2011 period, and estimate the linkage betweens firms’ decision to engage in foreign trade and to integrate a retailer-driven value chain using a multivariate binary choice model. Results confirm a strong positive correlation of these decisions, and show that retailers’ PL suppliers (i.e. IFS-certified firms) are by 5.83 percentage points more likely to integrate GVCs (i.e. to jointly import and export) than other firms in the agri-food sector. This figure corresponds to an almost twofold increase in firms’ probability to participate to GVCs observed in the sector. We also show that the integration in GVCs is primarily driven by the higher probability to export of these firms. Our findings are robust to the control for endgeneity and the use of alternative estimation techniques.
    Keywords: Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12–22
  13. By: Absell, Christopher David; Incerpi, Andrea
    Abstract: Historical studies of international trade have firmly established that distance was an important determinant of bilateral trade during the last two centuries. Despite the distance effect being one of the most robust results in trade history, we do not know much about how this effect changes over time, trade flows, across trading partners or traded goods. This paper examines the effect of distance on Italian bilateral trade comparing two periods: the first globalisation and the interwar years. Using a structural gravity model and data on Italian exports and imports by country and product and a new series of freights for the period 1862 to 1938, we find that the size and significance of the distance effect was highly contingent on the period and product composition of trade. While the trend in the effect of distance on trade during the first globalisation reflected the conventional story of the decline of transport costs during this period, the 1920s displays opposite trends for exports and imports. Further analysis of imports on the product-level reveals a similar heterogeneity of effect by product class. The distance elasticities of manufactured and industrial products reflected the overall trend, while those of raw materials and fuels did not seem to follow any clear pattern. We generate time series of trade to distance elasticities on the four-digit product category level and regress these on measures of trade costs and substitutability. We find that the distance effect at the product-level is explained by shifts in Italy's transport costs and the (gamma) elasticity of substitution across products.
    Keywords: Gravity; Distance; International Trade; Italy; Heterogeneity
    Date: 2022–12–22
  14. By: Vrolijk, Kasper
    Abstract: Many governments adopt policies and actively compete to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Particularly for lower-income countries, attracting FDI - and with it the benefits of cooperating with multi-national enterprises (MNEs) - is a promising strategy for participating in global supply chains and increasing local firm productivity. However, empirical findings show contrasting effects and there is heated debate over FDI's advantages and drawbacks. The current trend to rising market concentration also begs the question: Have FDI effects changed in recent years? This Policy Brief aims to address these questions by studying FDI and what the apparent growth in market concentration implies. Although foreign investment theoretically raises productivity, creates employment and offers many other benefits, the empirical evidence is not unequivocal. Initial coarse country-level data found that receptivity to FDI raises the host country's economic growth. But later research used more detailed sector data and showed ambiguous effects (Görg & Greenaway, 2004). New microdata confirm that FDI effects are differential: Not all workers and households benefit equally. They also showcase the different ways in which MNEs and FDI benefit firms, workers and households in host countries. Recently, superstar firms, which capture large shares of industries and thereby increase market con-centration, have emerged. Linked to reduced national economic dynamism and evident in global markets, the rise of superstar firms could negatively impact on FDI effects. They differ from MNE competition effects and confer market power so that MNEs can determine prices and wages. This trend toward rising market concentration is observed across multiple sectors and has several possible causes, such as technological and legal factors. A literature survey reveals a lack of evidence about how rising concentration in global markets is affecting FDI gains. However, other evidence suggests that the positive spillovers to domestic firms may well be lower, with higher market concentration negatively affecting wages and employment. The following takeaways can be derived for policy-making: 1. Integrate competition policy: Competition effects should be considered when evaluating FDI and policies should be introduced to ensure competitive practises after FDI entry. 2. Improve monitoring: Collect data on competi-tive forces and how they change when MNEs enter host economies. 3. Absorb regressive effects: Introduce social benefits to counter the potential mixed effects of FDI and MNE market power.
    Keywords: Trade & investment,FDI
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Chen, Natalie; Novy, Dennis
    Abstract: How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this framework to popular trade cost variables such as currency unions, trade agreements and World Trade Organization membership. While we estimate that these variables are associated with increased bilateral trade on average, we find substantial heterogeneity. Consistent with the predictions of our framework, trade cost effects are strong for 'thin' bilateral relationships characterised by small import shares, and weak or even zero for 'thick' relationships.
    Keywords: ESRC grant ES/L011719/1) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC grant ES/P00766X/1)
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2022–05–01
  16. By: Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian
    Abstract: In light of the recent tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the US, interest in quantifying the effects of the so-called phase one agreement has risen. To this end, the paper quantifies the impact of the asymmetric managed trade agreement using a multi-country open-economy dynamic general quilibrium model. Besides assessing the direct implications for China and the US, trade diversion effects are also analyzed. The model-based analysis finds noticeable positive (negative) impacts of the agreement for the US (China) as well as negative spillover effects for countries not directly affected by the managed trade deal due to trade diversion. The impact of possible future trade agreements is also examined.
    Keywords: phase one deal,managed trade,open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model,United States,China
    JEL: F13 F41 F42
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
    Abstract: A frequently employed argument against imposing international sanctions is that rival superpowers are likely to bust sanctions to simultaneously shield the target, harm the sender, and make a profit. We evaluate the legitimacy of this concern by studying the effect of US sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 1995–2019 using panel difference-in-differences estimations and an event study design. Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully undermine US sanction efforts, we test whether target countries’ trade with China and Russia increases under US trade sanctions. We find no evidence for systematic sanction busting. Russia does not change its trade patterns with sanctioned countries. Trade of targets of US sanctions with China declines even more than trade with the US. These general patterns are reconfirmed for trade in different groups of commodities. In addition, we find some evidence that a reduction in industrial value added and a devaluation of the domestic currency of the target country are transmission channels through which US sanctions hamper trade with third countries.
    Keywords: geopolitics, international political economy, international sanctions, trade substitution
    JEL: F13 F14 F50 F51 F52 F53 K33
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Hilpert, Hanns Günther
    Abstract: Europe's trade policy is heading for a sea change. But it is not Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine that is the main reason for this development. Rather, there are long-term influencing factors at work here: the WTO-centred multilateral trade order is visibly eroding. Protectionism is on the rise around the globe. World trade is growing only marginally or is even stagnating. Globalization is undergoing a transformation whose outcome is uncertain. And international trade is increasingly being instrumentalized for political purposes. In February 2021, the European Commission responded to these structural upheavals by announcing an "open, sustainable and assertive trade policy". However, there has so far been uneven progress towards implementing the objectives included in the new trade policy strategy. While the EU's intention to strengthen both Europe's assertiveness and the sustainability of trade is being realized through numerous new instruments and measures, its promise of openness and liberalization remains unfulfilled for the time being. In particular, the Indo-Pacific region beyond China would offer the German and European economies significant opportunities to tap new sources of raw materials and access reliable supplier networks and growing sales markets.
    Keywords: EU trade policy,Putin,aggression against Ukraine,protectionism,WTO,China,Taiwan crisis,Australia,New Zealand,India,Indo-Pacific
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Kuznetsov Dmitryi (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study of the influence of various factors on the intensity and routing of Russian import and export flows is provided.
    Keywords: factor analysis, trade balance
    Date: 2021–01
  20. By: Tomohiro Ara
    Abstract: This paper develops a heterogeneous firm model to analyze selection effects at different production stages on trade-induced intra-industry resource reallocations. Using a two-country symmetric setting in which both inputs and final goods are costly to trade subject to selection, we show that the trade elasticity of intermediate goods is endogenously greater than that of final goods due to an extra adjustment in the extensive margin. We also show that the welfare gains from input trade liberalization are greater than those from output trade liberalization if and only if the domestic input share is smaller than the domestic output share.
    Date: 2022–11–22
  21. By: Upalat Korwatanasakul (Waseda University, Japan); Tran Thi Hue (Department of Global Human Studies, Faculty of Literature, Kobe Women’s University, Japan)
    Abstract: This study describes the status of global value chains (GVCs) in Viet Nam and examines the roles of GVC participation and technology in enhancing labour productivity in manufacturing firms. The estimation method is a panel fixed-effect regression employing unique firm-level data matching the Vietnam Technology and Competitiveness Survey and Vietnam Enterprise Survey, 2009–2018. The findings show the positive effect of backward GVC participation when considering firm GVC participation status (i.e. whether they engage with backward linkages). However, when accounting for GVC participation degree (i.e. GVC participation index), the results show a stark contrast, revealing the negative effect of backward GVC participation on labour productivity. The results, therefore, partly reject the learning-to-learn hypothesis. On the other hand, regardless of GVC indicators, forward GVC participation positively impacts labour productivity, confirming the views of learning-by-exporting and learning-by-supplying. The findings also suggest the significance of research and development, digital technology, and foreign investment in enhancing labour productivity. Therefore, policies promoting forward GVC participation should be the priority, while policies to promote backward GVC participation should be well designed and accompanied by policies that ensure technology transfer and domestic technology development to avoid the trap of a subordinate role.
    Keywords: Global value chain participation; Labour productivity; Learning by-exporting; Learning-to-learn; Viet Nam
    JEL: F13 F14 F16 O19 O24
    Date: 2022–10–28
  22. By: Wei, Wenfeng (China Institute for Reform and Development)
    Abstract: On 13 April 2018, upon the 30th anniversary of Hainan province, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to build Hainan into a free trade port. According to the Master Plan for the Construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port released by the State Council on 1 June 2020, China aims to build this southern island province into a high-level free trade port with global influence by the middle of the century. As China's largest special economic zone, Hainan is expected to become the frontline of China's integration into the global economic system. Noting that the world is facing a new round of major development, changes and adjustment, with protectionism and unilateralism on the rise and economic globalization facing greater headwinds, it was also a strategic decision of Chinese authorities based on the domestic and international landscapes. As such, Hainan Free Trade Port (HNFTP) is more than a regional development initiative, and it has a much bigger role to play in China’s reform and opening endeavors.
    Keywords: Hainan Free Trade Port; Explore High-level Opening-up
    Date: 2022–10–27
  23. By: Li, Kun
    Abstract: To quantify the growth in GHG emissions related to international trade, we build an extensive database for export-related production and transportation GHG emissions covering 189 countries and 10 sectors from 1990 to 2014. We employ this database to quantify the contribution of production and international transportation to total export-related GHG emissions from Latin America and the Caribbean and decompose growth in these to contributions of the increase in the regions trade flows, shifts in the composition of trade partners, changes in the traded product basket, and technological progress.
    Keywords: Emission Intensity;Transportation Mode
    JEL: Q56 F18
    Date: 2021–09
  24. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions have substantially hurt Russia's economic relations with developed economies. Countries imposing sanctions on Russia accounted for half of Russia's foreign trade and over half of foreign financial flows before the war. We analyse the development of Russia's trade and financial relations in recent months and find that Russia's success in reorienting its trade and investment flows has been mixed.
    Keywords: Russia,Ukraine,sanctions,trade,FDI
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Gregory Corcos (Ecole polytechnique, IP Paris & CREST); Silviano Esteve-Pérez (Universitat de València and INTECO, Spain); Salvador Gil-Pareja (Universitat de València and INTECO, Spain); Yuanzhe Tang (Ecole polytechnique, IP Paris & CREST)
    Abstract: This paper examines how the duration of new exporters’ spells depends on business cycle conditions, using micro-level data on all spells initiated by French firms over the period 1998-2015. First, we find that exporters’ and importers’ hazard rates of leaving foreign markets are counter-cyclical. Second, new spells initiated during recessions face a lower hazard of leaving export/import markets (cohort effect), suggesting downturns have long-lasting effects on participation in foreign trade. Third, hazard rates are high at entry but fall sharply with spell age, both for cohorts ’born’ at good and bad times. Fourth, using the Full sample, approximately 2/3 (1/2) of aggregate negative age dependence in exports (imports) is related to ”true” age dependence, and 1/3 (1/2) is related to sorting. Finally, the estimation of a bivariate duration model confirms these patterns and reveals a positive association between the duration of import and export spells. Overall, our results suggest that business cycle conditions affect trade participation both in the short- and long-run, with both ’cleansing’ and ’scarring’ effects of recessions at work.
    Keywords: firm export and import survival; business cycle; inflow heterogeneity
    JEL: F14 C41 E32
  26. By: Kox, Henk L.M.
    Abstract: The paper models the links between public and firm-level knowledge processes. The knowledge-capital (KC) theory assumes that firms use their private knowledge assets to set up foreign subsidiaries. Countries with large outward FDI stocks should have a relative abundance of proprietary knowledge assets. This has not yet been adequately tested. Our model allows to test it by concentrating on national public knowledge inputs that are encapsulated in proprietary knowledge assets of firms. Using a rich international dataset we confirm the basic tenet of the KC theory and show the important role of public knowledge production for outward FDI.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment,Knowledge Transfer and Innovation,Knowledge Assets,Public Knowledge Creation,Multinational Companies,Empirical test,world coverage 2000-2020),
    JEL: O34 O31 D22 D83 F23
    Date: 2022
  27. By: Ahn, Soojung; Steinbach, Sandro
    Abstract: This paper assesses the determinants of temporary non-tariff measures (NTMs) in response to the coronavirus pandemic and their implications for agricultural and food trade. Using a control function approach, we show that economic and pandemic considerations played an essential role in implementing such NTMs. Relying on variation between treated and untreated varieties, we estimate a dynamic post-event trade response of 5.4% for import facilitating and -27.5% for export restricting NTMs. After revoking them, their trade effects fade away, implying that these temporary trade policies were effective in achieving the set policy goals, causing only a limited degree of long-term trade disruptions.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: As global economic growth has lost momentum due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the tension between U.S. and China, among other developments, concerns about the spread of protectionism are growing. In particular, anti-dumping (AD) measures are more likely to expand in the future in that they are relatively easy to take and have a direct effect on international trade compared to other protectionist trade policies. This study reviews the spread of AD measures and the effects of AD measures on trade. We also pay attention to the fact that AD investigation methodologies are being diversified. Focusing on particular market situation (PMS) and adverse facts available (AFA) provisions, which have been applied in many recent AD investigations on Korean export goods, we analyze the logic of investigation authorities.
    Keywords: Anti-dumping; PMS; AFA
    Date: 2022–09–16
  29. By: Blyde, Juan S.
    Abstract: Analyses that examine the role of international standards on export performance has been concentrated on quality certifications. Very little is known about the impact of environmental certifications on exports. In this paper we employ firm-level data from Ecuador to assess the impact of the ISO 14001 environmental certification on export outcomes. The results show that holding an ISO 14001 increases the likelihood of becoming an exporter by 0.31 percentage points (equivalent to 4%), and that this positive effect is concentrated among large firms. We did not find evidence that the environmental certification has a causal impact on the level or the growth rate of exports. Consequently, the results suggest that the ISO 14001 certification is most useful in reducing information frictions, allowing firms to initiate export transactions.
    Keywords: Exports;Environmental Standars
    JEL: F14 F18 Q56
    Date: 2021–11
  30. By: Constantinos Syropoulos; Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Aleksandra Kirilakha; Erdal Yalcin; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: This paper introduces the third update/release of the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB-R3). The GSDB-R3 extends the period of coverage from 1950-2019 to 1950-2022, which includes two special periods – COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The new update of the GSDB contains a total of 1,325 cases. In response to multiple inquiries and requests, the GSDB-R3 has been amended with a new variable that distinguishes between unilateral and multilateral sanctions. As before, the GSDB comes in two versions, case-specific and dyadic, which are freely available upon request at To highlight one of the new features of the GSDB, we estimate the heterogeneous effects of unilateral and multilateral sanctions on trade. We also obtain estimates of the effects on trade of the 2014 sanctions on Russia,
    Keywords: sanctions, Covid, Russia, multilateral sanctions, unilateral sanctions
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F50 F51 H50 N40
    Date: 2022
  31. By: Zsolt Darvas; Catarina Martins
    Abstract: The direct aim of trade sanctions seems to have been achieved, while Russia’s capacity to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink
    Date: 2022–12
  32. By: González Rozada, Martín; Ruffo, Hernán
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the role of trade in the evolution of labor share in Latin American countries. We use trade agreements with large economies (the United States, the European Union, and China) to capture the effect of sharp changes in trade. In the last two decades, labor share has displayed a negative trend among those countries that signed trade agreements, while in other countries labor share increased, widening the gap by 7 percentage points. We apply synthetic control methods to estimate the average causal impact of trade agreements on labor share. While effects are heterogeneous in our eight case studies, the average impact is negative between 2 to 4 percentage points of GDP four years after the entry into force of the trade agreements. This result is robust to the specification used and to the set of countries in the donor pool. We also find that, after trade agreements, exports of manufactured goods and the share of industry in GDP increase on average, most notably in the case studies where negative effects on labor share are significant. A decomposition shows that all the reduction in labor share is explained by a negative impact on real wages.
    JEL: C01 C10 F10 F16
    Date: 2021–12
  33. By: Blyde, Juan S.; Ramírez, Mayra A.
    Abstract: Empirical analyses that rely on micro-level panel data have found that exporters are generally less pollutant than non-exporters. While alternative explanations have been proposed, firm level data has not been used to examine the role of destination markets behind the relationship between exports and pollution. In this paper we argue that because consumers in high-income countries have higher valuations for clean environments than consumers in developing countries, exporters targeting high-income countries are more likely to improve their environmental outcomes than exporters targeting destinations where valuations for the environment are not high. Using a panel of firm-level data from Chile we find support to this hypothesis. A 10 percentage point increase in the share of exports to high-income countries is associated with a reduction in CO2 pollution intensity of about 16%. The results have important implications for firms in developing countries aiming to target high-income markets.
    Keywords: exports;environment;climate change;emissions
    JEL: F14 F18 Q56
    Date: 2022–01
  34. By: Tastan, Kadri
    Abstract: The implementation of the European Union's (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU's trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing decarbonisation process of European economic sectors, the EU's climate policy will be increasingly integrated into its trade policy through measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and by strengthening the environment chapters of its trade agreements. Therefore, the debate on the future of Turkey-EU trade relations should focus on future prospects for decarbonisation and trade if both sides are keen to maintain or deepen their trade relations. In the current context, which is rife with geopolitical and energy security considerations, a long-term vision and a holistic approach are needed now more than ever.
    Keywords: Green Deal,Decarbonisation,Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,CBAM,Nationally Determined Contributions,NDCs,Customs Union,Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,TTIP,EU Emissions Trading System,Turkey
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: 2011년 발효된 한·EU FTA는 한국이 대규모 교역상대와 체결한 최초의 FTA이자, EU가 추진한 차세대 FTA의 첫 사례로 평가된다. 한·EU FTA 발효 10주년을 맞아 본 연구에서는 한·EU FTA의 의의를 돌아보고, 그 영향을 무역· 투자·서비스·양자 간 경제관계 등 다양한 측면에서 분석하였다. 또한 한·EU FTA의 이행 경험, EU가 최근 체결한 주요 FTA 등을 바탕으로 한·EU FTA의 나아갈 방향을 모색하였으며, 한·EU 간 경제협력 심화방안을 제시하였다. The year 2011 marked the 10th anniversary of the free trade agreement (FTA) between Korea and the European Union (EU). The Korea-EU FTA was Korea’s first FTA with a major trading partner and the first case of the EU’s “next generation”FTAs.At the 10th anniversary of its entry into force, this report looks back on the meaning of the Korea-EU FTA and analyzes its impact on the bilateral economic relationship between the two economies. Followingthe entry into force of the FTA, Korea’s export to the EU stagnated, while Korea’s import from the EU increased, particularly during the eurozone crisis in 2011-2013. Among the EU member countries, Korea’s major export partners include not only large Western European countries such as Germany, United Kingdom and the Netherlands,but also the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) such as Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic.In particular, Korea’s export to the latter countries increased substantially after the FTA enteredinto force.Also, Korea’s import from the CEECs more than tripled after the entry into force of the FTA, though Western Europe’s share still remained much larger. Industrial products take a large share both in Korea’s export to and import from the EU, while consumer products and high-tech equipment also take a big share in Korea’s import from the EU. Both Korea’s export to and import from the EU diversified after the entry into force of the FTA. The EU is the second largest (about 14 percent) foreign investor in Korea and the largest destination (about 41 per cent) of Korea’s investment abroad. The EU’s investment in Korea was larger thaninvestment the other way around before the FTA, but the opposite becametrue after the FTA. Western Europe receives most of Korea’s investment in the EU, but Poland and Hungary’s share is rapidlyincreasing in recent years. The EU’s investment in Korea comes mostly from Western Europe and Malta. While Korea’s investment in the EU is concentrated in services (about 62 per cent), manufacturing’s share is rapidly increasing in recent years. The EU’s investment in Korea is more balanced between services (about 53 per cent) and manufacturing (about 44 per cent). (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 경제협력; 경제관계; economic cooperation; economic relations
    Date: 2021–12–30
  36. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examine import trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis periods related to covid-19 and the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. As during the global financial crisis, we find that import-intensity-adjusted demand is a key factor contributing to trade developments during the covid-19 crisis. The analysis also reveals substantial differences between the current crisis and the global financial crisis. Trade decline during the global financial crisis was heavily investment-led. In the current crisis, consumption and import demand from the service sector have had much larger roles. The recovery of trade has been notably faster during the covid-19 crisis and led by exports as opposed to the much more important role played by domestic demand during the global financial crisis.
    Keywords: International trade,covid-19,import-intensity-adjusted demand
    JEL: F10 F14 F17 G01
    Date: 2021
  37. By: Facundo Albornoz; Hector F. Calvo Pardo; Gregory Corcos
    Abstract: Exploiting disaggregated data on French exporters, we show that firms expand their product scope and geographical presence sequentially. This process of internationalization is uneven over time, exhibiting more volatility early than later in the life cycle of exporters. Specifically, young exporters are particularly likely to exit, and if they keep exporting, to expand at the intensive and sub-extensive margins, doing so by widening product scope within a destination before entering new destinations. We also find that firms’ core products are particularly resilient despite being used to “test the waters” when entering additional countries. Existing models of firm export dynamics are not designed to explain these empirical regularities. We argue that they can be rationalized by a mechanism where new exporters are uncertain about the profitability of their products in different markets, but learn from their initial export experiences and then adjust their sales, number of products and destination countries accordingly.
    Keywords: Export dynamics, experimentation, uncertainty, multiproduct firms, market interdependence.
    Date: 2022
  38. By: Kuznetsov Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Firanchuk Alexandr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper studies the mechanisms of influence of changes in the ruble exchange rate against world currencies on price dynamics of Russian exports.
    Keywords: export, prices, international trade, firms, price rigidity, exchange rates, heterogeneous firms’ theory.
    Date: 2021–01
  39. By: Chakraborty, Pavel (Lancaster University); Singh, Rahul (Ahmedabad University); Soundararajan, Vidhya (Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay)
    Abstract: Does higher import competition increase formalization and aggregate productivity? Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation from Chinese imports, we provide empirical causal evidence that higher imports increases the share of formal manufacturing enterprise employment in India. This formal share increase is both due to the rise in formal-enterprise employment driven by the high productivity firms, and a fall in informal-enterprise employment. The labor reallocation is enabled by the formal firms' hiring of contract workers, who do not carry stringent string costs. Overall, Chinese import competition increased formal sector employment share by 3.7 percentage points, and aggregate labor productivity by 2.87%, between 2000-2001 and 2005-2006.
    Keywords: import competition, formal sector employment, informality, contract workers, Chinese imports, reallocation, misallocation
    JEL: F14 F16 O17 O47 F66
    Date: 2022–11
  40. By: Allub, Lian; Aragon, Nicolas
    Abstract: Total gains from openness come through three channels: (i) trade, (ii) domestic multinational production (DMP), and (iii) bridge multinational production (BMP). We develop a quantitative theory to measure the effects of trade barriers and country size on the gains from openness through each of these channels. We show that these are sensitive to country size and larger in Europe than in South America. Country size is a crucial determinant of the contribution of each of these channels to the total gains from openness. DMP is more important in large countries, whereas the BMP channel is more important in small countries.
    Keywords: Comercio internacional, Finanzas,
    Date: 2022
  41. By: Léa Marchal (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers], UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Guzman Ourens (Tilburg University [Tilburg] - Netspar); Giulia Sabbadini (Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement - Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies [Geneva, Switzerland])
    Abstract: We use French employer-employee data to reassess the wage gap between native and foreign workers. We find that the wage gap varies with the export intensity of the firm and the occupation of the worker. A model with heterogeneous firms and workers shows that our findings are consistent with white-collar immigrants capturing an informational rent. The evidence supports this mechanism. First, we show that the wage gap is positively correlated with the complexity of the firm export activity. Second, we show that wages react to changes in export intensity when the export destination coincides with the origin of foreign workers.
    Keywords: export, firm, immigrants, wage inequality
    Date: 2022–12–18
  42. By: Julian Di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Andrei A Levchenko (University of Michigan System, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Isabelle Mejean (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper uses a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level value added, imports, and exports over the period 1995-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. Because the largest firms are the most likely to trade internationally, foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the large firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly more sensitive to foreign GDP growth. We then implement a quantitative framework calibrated to the full extent of the observed heterogeneity in firm size, exporting, and importing. We simulate the propagation of foreign shocks to the French economy and report one micro and one macro finding. At the micro level heterogeneity across firms predominates: 45 to 75% of the impact of foreign fluctuations on French GDP is accounted for by the "foreign granular residual"-the term capturing the larger firms' greater responsiveness to the foreign shocks. At the macro level, firm heterogeneity attenuates the impact of foreign shocks, with the GDP responses 10 to 20% larger in a representative firm model compared to the baseline model.
    Keywords: Granularity, Shock transmission, Aggregate fluctuations, Input linkages, International trade
    Date: 2022–09–06
    Abstract: 본 보고서에서는 미‧중 간 전략 경쟁이 심화되는 시기에 미국 바이든 행정부 대중국 전략의 특징을 살펴보고 이에 대응하기 위한 중국의 통상전략 변화를 분석하였다. 중국의 통상전략 변화를 △경제안보 전략 연계 △지역 네트워크 구축 △글로벌 통상 거버넌스 주도 등 세 가지 측면에서 살펴보았다. 이상의 분석 내용을 근거로 중국의 통상전략을 평가·전망하고 우리나라에 주는 시사점을 도출하였다. This report analyzes changes in China’s trade strategy in response to US measures to check China’s influence at a time when strategic competition between the US and China intensifies, going on to draw implications for Korea. While there are a number of studies that have analyzed the recent US-China conflict from the perspective of the US movements against China, there are insufficient studies on how China responds to these movements on the part of the US and what kind of trade strategy it pursues. Therefore, this study examines changes in China’s trade strategy in response to the US measures against China in order to provide abalanced perspective on changes in Korea’s trade environment amid the US-China conflict. Chapter 2 analyzed the shift in the US’s perception of China and the Biden administration’s strategy for China. With the rise of the Chinese economy, the US’s perception of China has shifted from a “cooperation partner” to a “strategic competitor,” defined as athreat to US national and economic security. US measures to keep China in check have been in full swing since the former Trump administration, and the US Biden administration is further expanding its pressure front on China. Accordingly, we looked at the US measures against China from the perspective of high-techsectors, supply chain stability, and new trade norms (digital trade, labor, environment). The Biden administration’s strategic stance toward China emphasizes the right to China’s unfair practices and a comprehensive and systematic approach to safeguard national andeconomic security. By utilizing various means such as entity list, export control, stronger foreign investment screening, and financial sanctions, it is countering China’s growth in advanced technology, which could threaten the national security of the United States. In addition, in the course of strategic competition with China, it is promoting the establishment of a stable supply chain in the United States by reviewing the supply chain for key industries related to national security such as semiconductors,batteries, core minerals, and pharmaceuticals in the United States. Unlike the former Trump administration, the Biden administration is emphasizing joint response and pressure with its allies. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 무역정책; 중국법제도; Trade Policy; Chinese Legal System
    Date: 2021–12–30
  44. By: Ka Lok Wong (Geneva Graduate Institute)
    Abstract: This presentation aims to guide the audience through the bulk download of Comtrade data via a Stata–Python integration setup that has been made available since Stata 16. Though this presentation is explicitly about the UN Comtrade dataset, the methodology employed is generalizable to other data platforms that allow API downloads. The UN Comtrade Database is one of the best sources when it comes to bilateral trade data by product code. As of early 2022, it covers more country-year observations than the World Trade 1 Organization and the International Trade Centre. However, tailoring the raw data to each researcher’s needs is often time-consuming. Using the Comtrade API with my Stata–Python setup would allow researchers to tailor their downloaded data to their desired specification. In addition, employing this setup significantly reduces human error when compared with the manual downloading and cleaning of Comtrade data.
    Date: 2022–11–30
  45. By: Assaf Razin
    Abstract: Which income group is pro-globalization or anti-globalization—the wealthy skilled-labor or the poor low-skilled labor? How globalization affect income-based attitudes towards globalization? The paper addresses these issues in the framework of a small open economy which trades in goods and financial securities with the rest of the world. Income-based political cleavages analyzed are grounded on trade-related and macro-related fundamentals, familiar from a standard open-economy model. They are: (i) The degree of trade border frictions, (ii) The degree of international finance frictions, (iii) The relative factor abundance that determines the capital intensity of the country’s exports; and, (iv) The domestic savings and productivity of domestic investment, which determines whether the country is a financial capital exporter or importer.
    JEL: F00 F1 F30
    Date: 2022–12
    Abstract: This study explores the impact of participating in five major online export support programs currently being implemented by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups on online exports of SMEs in 2018-20. The main findings show that the online export support program appear to significantly have improved the online export-related performance of participating SMEs in a short period of time. In addition, the online export support program’s online export enhancement effect tend to be relatively greater when the participating SMEs have relatively little experience with online export and low sales volume. Manufacturers also appear to benefit from support programs more than resellers. In summary, the findings suggest that Korea's online export support policy has had a significant impact in providing incentives for SMEs to start/increase online exporting.
    Keywords: online export; e-commerce; SME; digital platform
    Date: 2022–10–13
  47. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Anamaria Diana Sova; Robert Sova
    Abstract: This paper examines how the Covid-19 pandemic affected European trade patterns. Specifically, dynamic panel data models are estimated to assess the effects on exports and imports of various sectors and products (selected on the basis of their trading volume or strategic importance) of the restrictions and of other policy measures adopted by national governments during the crisis. The results suggest that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was heterogeneous across sectors and product types, both the initial drop and the subsequent rebound being different depending on sectoral characteristics and the degree of resilience. In particular, trade flows of durable products were more significantly affected by the pandemic compared to those of non-durable ones.
    Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic, trade patterns, sectoral analysis, product analysis, stringency, policy responses, uncertainty, Europe, dynamic panel models, GMM estimator
    JEL: C25 E61 F13 F15
    Date: 2022
  48. By: Guzi, Martin (Masaryk University); Kahanec, Martin (Central European University); Kureková, Lucia Mýtna (Slovak Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: Across European Union (EU) labor markets, immigrant and native populations exhibit disparate labor market outcomes, signifying widespread labor market hierarchies. While significant resources have been invested in migration and integration policies, it remains unclear whether these contribute to or mitigate labor market hierarchies between natives and immigrants. Using a longitudinal model based on individual-level EU LFS and country-level DEMIG POLICY and POLMIG databases, we explore variation in changes of immigration and integration policies across Western EU member states to study how they are associated with labor market hierarchies in terms of unemployment and employment quality gaps between immigrant and native populations. Our findings imply that designing less restrictive policies may help mitigate immigrant-native labor market hierarchies by reducing existing labor market disadvantages of immigrants and making the most of their potential.
    Keywords: decomposition, immigrant-native gaps, labor market, DEMIG POLICY database, immigrant integration, hierarchies
    JEL: J15 J18 J61 K37
    Date: 2022–11
  49. By: Klaus Friesenbichler; Andreas Reinstaller
    Abstract: The import competition literature suggests that Chinese industrial policies and technological trends have altered the nature of competition with China so that it does not take place on a level playing field anymore. Empirical evidence about firms' reactions in developed economies to competition with China is inconclusive, however. This paper studies how small, highly internationalised and specialised firms react to the growing penetration of Chinese exporters on their markets. We use a sample of Austrian manufacturing companies to explore the impact of increasing competition on changes in corporate strategy. We propose a novel indicator capturing import competition that highly internationalised companies face. We examine how firms adapt their search strategies related to technological capabilities and markets. While the exposure to Chinese competition has been on average relatively low, its impact on diversification choices has been significant. Companies exposed to growing Chinese competition are more likely to diversify their geographic markets, but less likely to diversify their product portfolio or broaden their competence base. These patterns are also reflected by changes in trade data.
    Keywords: Import competition, China, Austria, Strategy, Diversification, Manufacturing, Small and medium-size Enterprises
    Date: 2022–12–19
  50. By: Boken, Johannes (University of Warwick); Gadenne, Lucie (Queen Mary University of London, Institute for Fiscal Studies and CEPR.); Nandi, Tushar (IISER Kolkata); Santamaria. Marta (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: Do community networks shape firm-to-firm trade in emerging economies? We study the role of communities in facilitating firm-to-firm trade and firm outcomes using data on firm-to-firm transactions and firm owners’ community (castes) affiliations for the universe of medium- and large- sized firms in West Bengal, India. We find that firms are substantially more likely to trade, and trade more, with firms from their own caste. Studying the mechanisms underlying this effect, we find evidence consistent both with castes alleviating trade frictions and taste-based discrimination by firms against those outside their community. Guided by these stylized facts, we develop a model of firmto- firm trade in which communities affect pair productivity and matching costs and estimate the model using our reduced-form estimates. A counterfactual extending the positive effects of castes on trade to all potential supplier-client pairs would increase the number of network links by 60% and increase average firm-to-firm sales by 20%.
    Date: 2022
  51. By: Parrinello, Sergio (Sapienza University of Rome)
    Abstract: Different theories of international trade have originated from Chapter VII “On Foreign Trade” of Ricardo’s Principles and particularly from the interpretation of his numerical example of the gains from trade. In this paper a relatively new interpretation of such example and the resulting implications will be assessed in the light of Sraffa’s writings (1930, 1951) and of the so-called Neo-Ricardian approach applied to the theory of foreign trade. In particular, it will be reconsidered: i) the analogy between the choice of interna-tional specialization and the choice of techniques; ii) the conditions under which absolute cost advantages may prevail over comparative advantages and affect the pattern of inter-national trade and the delocalization of the national industries.
    Keywords: David Ricardo; Comparative advantage; Gains from trade
    JEL: B12 B17 F10
    Date: 2022–12–22
  52. By: Aditya Bhattacharjea (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Kanika Pathania (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Uday Bhanu Sinha (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics)
    Abstract: Indian industrialists have been complaining that the country’s tariff structure has resulted in an inverted duty structure or IDS (i.e., higher tariffs on inputs compared to outputs), leading to lower profitability. Traditional trade theory uses the concept of effective rate of protection (ERP) in such a scenario. If the ERP remains positive for an industry despite IDS, then the latter may not affect the industry badly as the structure of tariff is still giving some positive protection. However, if ERP becomes negative, then industry is better off under free trade than under restricted trade. This paper makes the first attempt to check theoretically if there are any specific conditions that make tariff rates supporting IDS an optimal policy solution while maximizing a country’s social welfare, even if it leads to negative ERP. We use an international oligopoly framework with two countries (home and foreign) and two vertically related goods (a final good and an intermediate input), situated in a three-stage game, to answer our research question. Depending upon various parametric configurations, our model suggests that there do exist such optimal rates of input and output tariffs that could lead to IDS in an economy, and negative ERP as well. However, this does not imply that IDS always coincides with negative ERP. In fact, we show that ERP for an industry may remain positive despite IDS, meaning thereby the latter may not adversely affect that industry because the tariff structure is still giving it protection. However, it is a completely different matter if the effective rate of protection for an industry turns out to be negative due to IDS. Key Words: Effective rate of protection; inverted duty structure; preferential trade agreements; tariff inversion; trade policy under oligopoly. JEL Codes: F13; L13; O24
    Date: 2022–11
  53. By: Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: This paper uses textual analysis to examine how European corporations assess sanctions in their annual reports. Using observations from a panel of almost 11,500 corporate annual reports from 2014-2017, we document significant cross-country variation in how firms perceive Russia-related sanctions. Even after controlling for firm-level characteristics, cross-country differences remain for sentiments about sanctions and contexts in which sanctions are mentioned. We also examine the role of macroeconomic linkages in explaining these differences. We show that the Russia's inward and outward FDI stocks and high levels of imports and exports with Russia only partially explain the cross-country variation, leaving a nontrivial share of variation unexplained.
    Keywords: sanctions,textual analysis,European firms,annual reports
    JEL: D22 F51
    Date: 2021
  54. By: Andreas Freitag; Sarah M. Lein; Sarah Marit Lein
    Abstract: We document how product quality responds to exchange rate movements and quantify the extent to which these quality changes affect the aggregate pass-through into export prices. We analyze the substantial sudden appreciation of the Swiss franc post removal of the 1.20-CHF-per-euro lower bound in 2015 using export data representing a large share of the universe of goods exports from Switzerland. We find that firms upgrade the quality of their products after the appreciation. Furthermore, they disproportionately remove lower-quality products from their product ranges. This quality upgrading and quality sorting effect accounts for a substantial share of the total pass-through one year after the appreciation. We cross-check our results with the microdata underlying the Swiss export price index, which includes an adjustment factor for quality based on firms’ reported product replacements, and obtain similar results.
    Keywords: large exchange rate shocks, exchange rate pass-through, quality adjustment
    JEL: E30 E31 E50 F14 F41
    Date: 2022
  55. By: Erling Barth (Institute for Social Research, Norway; Department of Economics, University of Oslo; IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Henning Finseraas (Norwegian Social Research); Anders Kjelsrud (University of Oslo); Karl O. Moene (University of Oslo - Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Have recent trends in globalization changed the positive link between trade openness and social insurance? The consensus view - that voters want better social insurance against income loss the more open the economy - is seemingly contested by the rise of populism and the China shock. We present a theoretical framework of risk and income effects of globalization that captures the conventional view, but also shows when it will be modified: When the income effect is negative, the political support for social insurance can decline in spite of the risk effect. We construct an empirical measure of welfare state support across European regions and leverage the rapid integration of China into the world economy to show that higher import competition reduces the support for social insurance. Consistent with our framework, we decompose the overall effect of the shock into a (weak) positive risk effect and a (strong) negative income effect.
    JEL: J21 J23 H55 F16 F6
    Date: 2021–02–01
  56. By: Stephen J Terry (BU - Boston University [Boston], NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Thomas Chaney (USC - University of Southern California, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Konrad B Burchardi (Stockholm University); Lisa Tarquinio (UWO - University of Western Ontario); Tarek A Hassan (BU - Boston University [Boston], NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: We show a causal impact of immigration on innovation and growth in US counties. To identify the causal impact of immigration, we use 130 years of detailed data on migrations from foreign countries to US counties to isolate quasi-random variation in the ancestry composition of US counties; interacting this plausibly exogenous variation in ancestry composition with the recent inflows of migrants from different origins, we predict the total number of migrants flowing into each US county in recent decades. We show immigration has a positive causal impact on innovation, measured as patenting of local firms, and on economic growth, measured as real income growth for native workers. We interpret those results through the lens of a quantitative model of endogenous growth and migrations. A structural estimation of this model targeting the well identified causal impact of migration on innovation suggests the large inflow of foreign migrants into the US since 1965 may have contributed to an additional 8% growth in innovation and 5% growth in wages.
    Keywords: Migrations, Innovation, Patents, Endogenous growth, Dynamism
    Date: 2022–11–24
  57. By: Sedalishev Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Unexpectedly for many, 2020 brought many events that multiplied the already existing global external economic turbulence, which arose, first of all, due to the global trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump in 2017. The main driver of most significant economic events in the first half of 2020 was the COVID-19 virus pandemic, which, due to the quarantine introduced in many countries of the world, led to a noticeable decline in the output of almost all industries.
    Keywords: unpredictability, macroeconomic forecasting
    Date: 2021–01
  58. By: : Ojea Ferreiro, Javier (Bank of Canada); : Gregori, Wildmer Daniel (European Commission); : Nardo, Michela (European Commission)
    Abstract: This report focuses on the forecast of the number of monthly cross-border deals in the European Union. We propose a new model to improve the forecasting properties of a count model of Foreign Direct Investment deals in EU, by taking into account past trends in high-frequency (daily) deal data and the decomposition of the conditional overdispersion into short-term and long-term components. Our model relies on the dynamic behaviour of the first two moments of the distribution of FDI deals to explain the evolution of parameters η and π in the Negative Binomial distribution. We test this model with several subsets of M&A deals from 1998 to 2021 obtaining sizable forecast improvements as compared to benchmark INGARCH models
    Keywords: M&A forecasting, MIDAS approach, count process, overdispersion
    JEL: C10 C19 C35
    Date: 2022–12
  59. By: Advani, Arun; Koenig, Felix; Pessina, Lorenzo; Summers, Andy
    Abstract: We study the contribution of migrants to the rise in UK top incomes. Using administrative data on the universe of UK taxpayers, we show migrants are over-represented at the top of the income distribution, with migrants twice as prevalent in the top 0.01% as anywhere in the bottom 97%. These high incomes are predominantly from labour, rather than capital, and migrants are concentrated in only a handful of industries, predominantly finance. Almost all (90%) of the observed growth in the UK top 1% income share over the past 20 years has accrued to migrants.
    Date: 2022
  60. By: Joana Garcia
    Abstract: We study the extensive and intensive margins of services imports by multinational groups from tax havens, and investigate to what extent those imports may have profit shifting motives. Drawing on rich data covering the universe of multinational groups with a presence in Portugal, we show that in a high-tax country where policies strongly discourage transactions with tax havens, multinational groups do not have an excess propensity to import intra-group from those countries. For the havens directly targeted by the policies, there is even a negative excess propensity to do so. This notwithstanding, we document the existence of an excessive value of intra-group imports from a set of targeted havens.
    JEL: F14 F23 H26 K34
    Date: 2022
  61. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the term structure of foreign direct investment into Vietnam economy by dividing the short-term, medium-term and long-term contribution on the domestic economic growth. The data is an annual sample of Vietnam economy over 2007-2021. The empirical evidence records that the foreign direct investment stimulates the domestic economic growth by promoting the net exports in the medium-term and by the capital accumulation process in the long-term. In the short-term, the foreign direct investment also provides the foreign currency, which affect directly the equilibrium foreign exchange rate. Therefore, the foreign direct investment is a crucial growth engine for the Vietnam economy. The evidence suggests that the foreign direct investment can be a priority for the public policy to enhance the domestic economic growth rate. Beside the domestic sector, including the state-owned firms and private firms, the foreign direct investment needs to be managed so that its contribution to domestic economic growth is maximized.
    Date: 2022–11
  62. By: Mie Oba (Kanagawa University)
    Abstract: This paper aims to clarify the role of Japan in the process leading up to the establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While emphasising that respect for the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was a principle of RCEP, Japan played a leading role in the process of RCEP negotiations. For Japan, RCEP is one of the fruits of its strategy in East Asia/Asia-Pacific that began the mid-1990s to protect and increase the interests and advantages of Japanese business and retain Japan’s political leverage in the region. When substantial negotiations for RCEP began in 2013, its importance for Japan was secondary to other free trade agreements (FTAs) including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, China–Japan–Korea FTA, and Japan–European Union FTA. However, the Government of Japan and the business community had set a lot of economic and strategic goals in promoting RCEP. After the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, RCEP was seen as an essential framework for establishing a rules-based regional order in the Indo-Pacific region. Although it was after India’s withdrawal from the RCEP negotiations, Japan further emphasised the importance of RCEP as the measure to sustain and foster the rule-based regional order and simultaneously pursued the conclusion of negotiations and the establishment of high-level rules, achieving some success. Ultimately, the havoc brought about by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the sense of crisis in the traditional liberal international order caused by the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China, drove the conclusion of RCEP. RCEP will be increasingly important for economic order in Japan and Asia in the coming years. Ironically, as the strategic competition between the US and China escalates and leads to a surge in protectionism, the economic and strategic importance of RCEP – an FTA that incorporates China – is becoming more significant as a measure to counter unilateralism and protectionism. In addition, RCEP needs elements that address globalisation’s adverse effects and pitfalls, in areas such as the environment, labour rights, and a reduction in the disparity between the rich and poor.
    Keywords: Japan; RCEP; TPP; CJK FTA; Rule-based order; Regionalism
    JEL: F15 F53 F55
    Date: 2022–10–24
    Abstract: This study examines the status and characteristics of Korea’s servitization of manufacturing and its impact on business performance and exports. In particular, we focus on servitization in manufacturing, which can be seen as a part of servicification in manufacturing. It is the phenomenon of manufacturing firms producing more services as final goods and provide them to the market with their products. Looking at the status of servitization in the manufacturing sectors focusing on the service sales generated by manufacturing firms, the servitization in manufacturing in Korea has gradually increased. Sales in service sectors, which stood at 4.5% of the total sales of manufacturing firms in 2012, surged to 15.9% in 2017, and then decreased to 6.9% in 2019. Based on the stylized fact that servitization in manufacturing in Korea has gradually increased, we empirically analyze the effect of servitization in manufacturing on the business performances and exports. The result suggets that the servitization in manufacturing is progressing in the direction of improving firm’s productivity, profitability, and exports.
    Keywords: Servicification; Servitization; Export
    Date: 2022–09–02
    Abstract: 우리나라는 경제규모 대비 외국인투자 유치 비중이 낮은 상황으로, 외국인투자를 유치하기 위해 다음과 같은 보완조치가 필요하다. 첫째, 여전히 우리나라는 대규모 외국인투자 유치를 위한 파격적 인센티브 수단을 갖추지 못하고 있어 이를 보완할 필요가 있다. 싱가포르의 경우 개척자 지위를 부여해 최대 15년간 조세면제와 같은 파격적인 조건들을 제시하고 있다. 둘째, 선진국 사례에서 얻을 수 있는 또 하나의 교훈은 이들 국가의 경우 현금지원 수단을 매우 적극적으로 활용하고 있다는 것이다. 단 우리의 경우 현금지원 수단 사용 시 외국인투자로 인해 얻을 수 있는 경제적 파급효과를 평가해서 이에 부합하도록 지원하는 방식을 모색할 필요가 있다. 특히 영국이나 미국의 경우도 입지지역의 경제적 낙후도를 평가하여 종합적으로 인센티브 지원방안을 조성하고 있다. 우리의 경우는 수도권과 비수도권으로 획일적으로 나누어서 기업지원을 달리하고 있으나, 영국의 경우 지역의 경제 낙후도 평가 시 실업률, GRDP, 재정자립도, 산업구조, 인프라 등을 종합적으로 고려하고 있다.(the rest omitted) Due to COVID-19, global FDI has decreased rapidly, and the trade environment to attract foreign investment is rapidly changing. Amid the decreasing inflow of FDI worldwide, the trend of corporate tax cuts continues as competition among major countries to attract foreign investment intensifies. The global average corporate tax in 2000 was 28.3%, but fell to 20% in 2021. The OECD average fell from 32.3% in 2000 to 22.9% in 2021. Along with the trend of corporate tax cuts to attract investment, there is also a movement to set the so-called global minimum corporate tax rate, aiming to prevent excessive corporate tax cuts. On July 1, 2021, following negotiations at the OECD, 130 countries which account for 90% of the world’s GDP agreed to apply the global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% from 2023. Subject to the application are multinational companies with total annual sales of EUR 750 million or more. In recent years, active reshoring policies to protect domestic industries and create jobs in developed countries have made it more difficult to attract FDI to Korea. On his fifth day in office, President Biden announced Executive Order 14005, which prioritizes the federal government’s financial support and procurement, laying the legal foundation for the revival of U.S. manufacturing and job creation through the “Made in America” and “Buy American” initiatives. In addition, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (H.R. 3684), which legislated federal support for domestic infrastructure construction, passed both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 외국인직접투자; 해외직접투자 foreign direct investment; overseas direct investment
    Date: 2022–07–29
  65. By: Léa Marchal (Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Claire Naiditch (LEM, Université de Lille); Betül Simsek (ILE, Hamburg University)
    Abstract: This is the first global study that quantifies the transmission channels through which foreign aid impacts migration to donor countries. We estimate a gravity model derived from a RUM model, using OECD data between 2011 and 2019 an instrumentation strategy. Our identification takes advantage of data on multilateral aid provided by multilateral agencies which is non-donor specific. We find evidence that aid donated by a country increases migration to that country through an information channel. If that channel were the only one at play, a 1% increase in bilateral aid would induce a 0.17% increase in migration. In addition, a 1% increase in multilateral aid reduces migration from the less poor origin countries by 0.05% via a development channel
    Keywords: Aid; Gravity; Migration
    JEL: F22 F35 O15
    Date: 2022–11
  66. By: Kaeser, Aflatun (Utah State University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: This paper analyses immigrants' views about immigration, filling an important void in the immigration literature. In particular, it explores the role of statistical discrimination as a cause of possible opposition to immigration in absence of stringent immigration policies and large volumes of undocumented immigration. We test this hypothesis using US data from the 7th wave of the World Value Survey finding that successful immigrants in the US – i.e. those in the highest socio-economic group – have negative views about immigration especially with respect to its contribution to unemployment, crime, and the risk of a terrorist attack. This effect does not arise in the case of host countries that apply stricter controls on immigration, like Australia, Canada and New Zealand, or do not attract large volumes of undocumented immigrants. We interpret these results as evidence that undocumented or uncontrolled immigration negatively affects the standing of existing high socio-economic status immigrants by lowering it in the eyes of US natives, hence triggering an anti-immigration view as a response.
    Keywords: immigration, beliefs, attitudes, behaviors
    JEL: D1 D89 D90 F22 J15
    Date: 2022–12
  67. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between the external debts and the trade balance on a data sample of 190 economies over 1990-2020. In particular, the trade surplus provides the financial resource to repay the external debts. Thus, a greater trade surplus ensures a greater ability to sustain a huger external debts. The qualitative analysis records that there exits mixed results on the external debts and trade balance. And the quantitative analysis illustrates that the external debts are positively correlated with the trade balance. Thus, the evidence confirms that a greater trade surplus can sustain a huger external debts. The empirical results uncover that the trade balance is crucial for a sustained quantity of external debts. Thus, an appropriated policy for the external debts is to stimulate the trade balance, such as with the international trade policy and associated exchange rate policy.
    Date: 2022–09
  68. By: Schmitz, Andrew; Nguyen, Ly
    Abstract: We develop a theoretical trade model based on classical welfare economics and apply it empirically to both importers and exporters of shrimp, the most traded seafood, to determine the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the excess supply and excess demand of shrimp industry. We consider two time periods and compare these to the base period before the pandemic. Period 1 (March–June 2020): there is a net economic loss globally of $194 million due to lockdowns. Period 2 (July 2020–June 2021): there is a net welfare gain globally of $885 million due to increased shrimp demand. Overall, the global net economic gain was $692 million. For the United States alone, shrimp consumers gained $470 million while shrimp producers gained $24 million, which is relatively consistent with the net quasi-consumer gain of $475 million due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–01
  69. By: McKay, Andy; Ogunkola, Olawale; Semboja, Haji Hatibu
    Abstract: This article is an introduction to this Special Issue on Rethinking in Regional Integration in Africa which is based on a collaborative research project, implemented by African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), the leading economic capacity building institution in Africa, and funded by the African Development Bank (AfDB). This project is very timely given the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which came into force on 01 January 2021. In this introduction, we first provide a brief background on regional integration in Africa. We next describe the AERC project and the process of selection of the papers and then provide a quick summary of the ten published papers and their contributions.
    JEL: M40 F3 G3 J1
    Date: 2022–11–20
  70. By: Bianca Balsimelli Ghelli; Elton Bequiraj; Marilena Giannetti
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of corruption on the migration flows from SSA countries to the OECD countries between 2000 and 2019. Fixed-effects and system GMM (generalized method of moments) estimation techniques are used to establish a relationship between emigration and corruption. The empirical results indicate that when corruption increases, migration flows also increase, where corruption is measured on a scale of 0 (not corrupt) to 100 (totally corrupt). Splitting the sample by income inequality suggests that increased inequality doesn't reduce the ability to emigrate. Indeed, below and above the threshold the results are the same. Finally, splitting the sample by corruption level suggests that a high level of corruption in the home country doesn't affect the migration decision.
    Keywords: Corruption; Migration; SSA countries
    JEL: F22 O55 D73
    Date: 2022–12
  71. By: Sirgit Perdana (CMCS-EPFL - CMCS-EPFL - EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Marc Vielle (CMCS-EPFL - CMCS-EPFL - EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Maxime Schenkery (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School)
    Abstract: The recent economic sanctions against Russia can jeopardize the sustainability of the European Union's (EU) energy supply. Despite the EU's strong commitment to stringent abatement targets, fossil fuels still play a significant role in the EU energy policy. Furthermore, high dependency on Russian energy supplies underlines the vulnerability of the EU energy security. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, we prove that the current EU embargo on coal and oil imported from Russia will have adverse supply effects, substantially increasing energy prices and welfare costs for the EU resident. Although it reduces emissions, extending the embargo to include natural gas doubles this welfare cost. The use of coal is likely to increase, especially with respect to EU electricity generation, given the current constraints of additional import capacities from nonRussian producers. The impact on Russia once the EU extends the sanctions to natural gas is less substantial than on the EU. Russian welfare cost will increase less than 50%, indicating that extending the current restriction to boycott Russian gas is a costly policy option.
    Keywords: European Union, Russia, Computable General Equilibrium Model, Fit for 55 Package, Imports Ban
    Date: 2022–11–01
  72. By: Wagner, Christian; D'Souza, Shanthie Mariet
    Abstract: In 2000, the Strategic Partnership between India and Germany symbolised new-found commonalities shared by the countries in the era of globalisation. More than two decades later, the agreement requires an upgrade in order to address the changing international, regional and national dynamics. This upgrade should include, first, further deepening of the strong pillars of the relationship, i.e. in the fields of trade, economics, science and technology. Second, the agenda should be broadened to accord greater priority to areas including defence, security, political relations and people-to-people contact. Finally, both sides should acknowledge their differences with regard to their respective national interests and foreign policy objectives, and should find ways to bridge the gap. The focus on common interests in specific policy areas should be the guiding principle for enhancing India-Germany bilateral and international collaboration.
    Keywords: India-Germany strategic partnership,trade,economics,science,technology,defence,security,political relations,people-to-people contact
    Date: 2022
  73. By: Erel, Isil (Ohio State University and ECGI, Brussels); Jang, Yeejin (UNSW Sydney); Weisbach, Michael S. (Ohio State University and ECGI, Brussels)
    Abstract: One of the most consequential events in any firm’s lifetime is a major acquisition. Because of their importance, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been an enormous area of research. However, the vast majority of this research and survey papers summarizing this research have focused on domestic deals. Cross-border ones, however, constitute about 30% of the total number and 37% of the total volume of M&As around the world since the early 1990s. We survey the literature on cross-border M&As, focusing on international factors that can lead firms to acquire a firm in another country. Such factors include differences in economic development, laws, institutions, culture, labor rights, protection of intellectual property, taxes, and corporate governance.
    JEL: F00 G32 G34
    Date: 2022–10
  74. By: Sascha Keil (Chemnitz University of Technology)
    Abstract: Unit labour cost is considered being a decisive determinant of manufacturing exports and, thus, of industrial value added. This paper tests empirically to what degree manufacturing activities are exposed to international cost competition and whether the cost reliance decreases when a country specializes in industries, which are characterized by high innovative efforts and technological sophistication. For more precise sectoral estimates of the value added elasticity with respect to cost, unit labour cost is constructed as a vertically integrated metric, taking the input cost structure into account. The analysis focusses on 18 manufacturing sectors of 28 European countries over the period 1995-2018. The importance of competitive cost structures for manufacturing value added is broadly confirmed. The estimated cost elasticity differences across sectors tend to reflect the sectoral dependence on export sales and, thus, international competitive pressure. The highest elasticities belong to the production of automobiles, vehicles, pharmaceuticals and computers. These results are at odds with the common view according to which the cost elasticity decreases per se producing more advanced commodities.
    Keywords: vertically-integrated sectors, competitiveness, sectoral analysis
    JEL: C67 F12 F41 L16
    Date: 2022–12
  75. By: To, Jenny
    Abstract: The European Union Circular Economy Action Plan (EU-CEAP) is key to transitioning to a circular economy and climate neutrality under the EU Green Deal, with developing and emerging countries (DECs) playing an important role. First, DECs are essential for the primary material chains, for example, supplying material for electric vehicle (EV) batteries to the European Union (EU). Second, DECs are involved in secondary material chains: To recycle its plastic packaging, Europe relies on DECs. But despite the essential role DECs play in Europe's transition to a circular economy, the EU-CEAP's impact on DECs has largely gone unexamined in literature and policy discourses - a shortcoming that could reinforce Eurocentrism and jeopardise the much-needed willingness to cooperate on multilateral solutions to global challenges (Messner, 2022). This policy brief and associated discussion paper (To, 2022) outline challenges and opportunities for DECs that are related to the EU-CEAP and present recommendations for German development cooperation. In the plastic packaging sector, DECs will likely be impacted by stricter waste shipment regulation (WSR), along with higher EU recycling targets, mandatory recycled content for plastics, and bans on certain single-use plastic items. Hence, the following recommended policy actions: To lower the risks of illegal plastic waste trade and disposal, DECs must be helped to enforce the WSR and meet tightened import regulations. The impact of plastic waste imports on DEC domestic markets in light of changing WSR must be monitored; discussion about stricter EU waste export regulations should be initiated accordingly. In response to plastic waste imports, plastic recycling in DECs must be improved by raising standards and investments in advanced machinery as well as working conditions for informal labourers. Changing EU plastic ban regulations must be monitored to anticipate increased demand for plastic alternatives. For EVs and batteries, EU-CEAP regulations that could impact DECs include stricter due diligence requirements for raw materials, higher targets for retrieving secondary battery materials, as well as reusing, repurposing and recycling EVs and their batteries. In response, the following policy actions are recommended: Help DEC suppliers meet tighter supply-chain require-ments in light of the expected steady increase in demand for virgin raw materials from DECs. Help expand road infrastructure to make it possible to reuse EVs, ensure EV batteries for repurposing, and provide recycling machinery and know-how.
    Keywords: circular economy,green economy,EU Green Deal,EU Circular Economy Action Plan,plastic waste,plastic packaging,electric vehicles,electric vehicle batteries,developing and emerging countries
    Date: 2022
  76. By: Ly Dai Hung (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the jointly dynamics of international trade cycle and financial cycle in the Vietnam economy. The data is a time-series sample of Vietnam economy over the 1995-2021 time period. And the research objective is to analyze the co-movement of foreign trade and financial cycle, incorporating the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Methodology: The research methodology combines both qualitative analysis with quantitative one. In particular, the qualitative analysis reviews the recent literature on the global trade and financial cycle, with a focal point on the developing economies. Then, the quantitative analysis considers the time-series analysis of Vietnam economy, as one typical small open economy. Findings: The global trade and financial cycle are considered as a central role within the current international monetary system. The trade cycle can be effective in the short and medium term while the financial cyle exists for a longer term. In the Vietnam economy, the trade and financial cycle co-moves closedly, especially during the time period of structural break such as Covid-19 pandemic. Implications: The results uncover that the public policy needs to be adjusted according to the points in the global trade and financial cyle. The policy at the peak of cycle can be tightened while the policy at the trough of cycle needs to be expanded. And the policy at both the peak and trough needs to be accompanied with an excellent communication to the whole economy.
    Keywords: Global Trade Cycle,Financial Cycle,Quantitative Analysis,Qualitative Analysis,Vietnam economy
    Date: 2022–09
  77. By: Niftiyev, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Since February 2022, a new phase of the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun. Apart from the direct consequences for Russia and Ukraine, all post-Soviet countries are affected, as Western sanctions against Russia significantly limit the economic development and cooperation prospects of the post-Soviet region. Azerbaijan is one of Russia's most important trading partners and a neighboring country, and there are serious concerns that these sanctions could have a negative impact on Azerbaijan's socioeconomic life. This is mainly because domestic production in Russia has declined, agricultural exports have been curtailed, and trade and transportation routes have been disrupted. Against the background of all these factors, the social impact of this situation seems to be dramatic. Therefore, this article analyzes qualitative data from social media and websites dealing with Azerbaijan's social challenges. To this end, expert opinions were analyzed using the thematic analysis method to examine the social impact of sanctions at three levels: people living abroad (migrants or expats), remittances, and the purchasing power of locals. The results show that there is a high expectation among experts that sanctions could have a negative impact on remittance flows from Russia to Azerbaijan due to the devalued Russian ruble. There is also a possibility that migrants working and living in Russia will return to Azerbaijan in greater numbers. Finally, experts agreed that the purchasing power of locals in Azerbaijan has declined due to sharp price increases that followed the production slump and export restrictions in Russia. These findings could support ongoing preparations for new socioeconomic realities in Azerbaijan as a result of Western sanctions against Russia. Now policymakers must develop a plan to quickly address Azerbaijan's social problems, even if it is not an emergency.
    Keywords: Azerbaijani economy,expert opinion,Russia,sanctions,social impacts,thematic analysis
    Date: 2022
  78. By: Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Robert Z. Lawrence (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Many Americans are persuaded that trade agreements of the last 40 years have been a costly mistake. To be sure, open markets leave some people behind, and promises to help those hurt were broken. But on balance, expanding trade has greatly benefited the US economy, and policy approaches taken need to be built on rather than abandoned. Alan Wm. Wolff, Robert Z. Lawrence, and Gary Clyde Hufbauer say more must be done to help those harmed, but protectionism is not the solution. The international trading system needs more outspoken US support and leadership if it is to be maintained and improved.
    Date: 2022–12
  79. By: Kakuho Furukawa (Bank of Japan); Ryohei Hisano (The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: We nowcast Japan's exports using maritime big data (the Automatic Identification System data), which contains information on vessels such as their locations. The data has been only relatively rarely used for capturing economic trends. In doing so, we improve the accuracy of nowcasts by utilizing official statistics such as geographical data on ports and machine learning techniques. The analysis shows that the nowcasting model augmented with AIS data improves the performance of nowcasting relative to existing statistics (provisional reports on the Trade Statistics of Japan) that is available in close to real-time. In particular, the nowcasting model developed in this paper follows the movements of exports reasonably well even when they increase or decrease significantly (e.g., when the pandemic began in the spring of 2020 and when the supply chain was disrupted around mid-2021).
    Keywords: Nowcasting; Alternative data; AIS data; Exports
    JEL: C49 C55 E27
    Date: 2022–12–23
  80. By: Agustín S. Bénétrix (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Hayley Pallan (World Bank); Ugo Panizza (Graduate Institute Geneva)
    Abstract: This paper revisits the link between FDI and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. When we study the early decades of our sample, we find that there is no statistically significant correlation between FDI and growth for countries with average levels of education or financial depth. In line with previous contributions, we find that this correlation is positive and statistically significant for countries with sufficiently well-developed financial sectors or high levels of human capital. However, we also find that the link between FDI and growth varies over time. For more recent periods, we find a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI and growth for the average country, with local conditions having a negative effect on this link. We also develop a novel instrument aimed at addressing the endogeneity of FDI inflows. Instrumental variable estimates suggest that our results are unlikely to be driven by endogeneity.
    Keywords: FDI,EconomicGrowth,HumanCapital,FinancialDevelopment
    JEL: F21 F43 C21 C26
    Date: 2022
  81. By: HIRAMI Kenta
    Abstract: This case is the first case in which the DSU Article 25 arbitration was used as an ad hoc alternative appeal mechanism against the backdrop of the dysfunction of the WTO Appellate Body since the end of 2019. This arbitration procedure is very similar to the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), which is expected to be utilized soon, and in that sense, it may serve as a touchstone for the future operation of the MPIA. The question is whether this appeal arbitration mechanism is a mere replication of the Appellate Body procedure or a new appeal mechanism that fixes the problems of the Appellate Body. As far as this case is concerned, its arbitral award appears to be generally restrained, and one gets the impression that this appeal mechanism is not a mere replication of the Appellate Body procedure. Nevertheless, it is too early to predict the course of the alternative appeal arbitration mechanism from this award alone, and since, in such a new dispute settlement mechanism, early practices will largely determine the working paradigm and legal culture to be followed thereafter, the future of the appeal arbitration mechanism under the DSU Article 25 will depend on how faithfully arbitrators and parties to a dispute use that mechanism in initial cases.
    Date: 2022–12
    Abstract: 본 연구는 2008년 7월 이후 중단된 도하개발어젠다(DDA: Doha Development Agenda) 서비스협상의 주요 쟁점을 정리·평가하고, 저자가 수석대표로서 활동하면서 취득한 공식·비공식 정보를 분석·기록한 일종의 사료이다. 이를 기초로 향후 협상 재개 시 우리나라의 제2차 수정양허안의 작성 방향과 기타 협상 관련 기술적 전략을 제시하고자 한다.(the rest omitted) This study seeks to stock-take and assess major issues of Doha Development Agenda (DDA) services negotiations. Unlike previous studies in this area, this study tries to analyze the plurilateral negotiations based on several plurilateral requests which were leaked on the internet. As the major issues at the multilateral level addressed at the Special Session of Council for Trade in Services, this study intends to analyze three areas, that is, the assessment of trade in services, the review of negotiation progress, and the modalities for the least developed countries. With regard to the plurilateral negotiations, among the total of 22 services sectors where plurilateral requests have been exchanged, this study aims to assess 19 services sectors, including 15 sectors whose plurilateral requests were leaked on the internet. As for the discussions at the subsidiary bodies, this study seeks to assess those conducted at the Working Party on GATS Rules, Committee on Trade in Financial Services, Committee on Specific Commitments, and Working Party on Domestic Regulations. As policy implications, this study suggests a pro-active position with regard to the second revised offer, considering the fact that in most of the service sectors, Korea has been experiencing remarkable developments. In addition, with regard to the other negotiation strategies, this study recommends for Korea to request the removal of MFN exemption measures, incorporation of additional commitment in architectural services related to qualification requirements as in Korea’s UR schedule, and request of improving offers in the five infrastructure services of telecommunication, construction, distribution services, financial services, and maritime services.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: 다자간협상; multilateral negotiations
    Date: 2022–10–25
  83. By: Fusanori Iwasaki (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: This paper aims to understand how the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), an international organisation established under the East Asia Summit framework in 2008, contributed to negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. Previous international relations studies have analysed the functions of international institutions, such as providing specialist information, skills, and knowledge, and helping states with international policymaking. In light of the functions of international institutions that the previous studies identified, we examine ERIA’s activities in support of the RCEP and their changing characteristics at each phase of the negotiating process: (i) before the launch of negotiations, (ii) during the early stage of negotiations, (iii) during the later stage of negotiations, and (iv) during the implementation phase after conclusion of the agreement. We show that ERIA studied the economic impact and feasibility of implementing the RCEP in the 16 countries participating in the RCEP negotiations before the negotiation launch phase, providing a rationale for establishing the RCEP. In the early stage of negotiations, ERIA promoted ASEAN centrality, which is the key concept of the RCEP negotiations, through research asserting the importance of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and the significance of the RCEP in realising the AEC. In the later stage of negotiations, ERIA expanded its scope of contribution to include more policy-oriented engagement with policymakers in the countries participating in the RCEP negotiations, exemplified by the establishment of ERIA’s Policy Design Department in 2016. The Policy Design Department provided technical support for preparing rules of origin and trade facilitation negative lists through capacity building programmes for RCEP negotiators in Cambodia and the Lao PDR. Even after the end of the RCEP negotiations, ERIA conducted capacity development programmes on RCEP issues in various fields (harmonised tariff nomenclature, rules of origin, and e-commerce). Throughout the four phases of the RCEP negotiating process, ERIA provided information-providing and decision-supporting functions. In line with the need for finalizing and implementing the RCEP, ERIA expanded its mission to include the specialist technical-providing function in the last phases.
    Keywords: International institution; Information-sharing; Regional integration; RCEP
    JEL: F53
    Date: 2022–10–24
  84. By: Chengyuan Han; Malte Schr\"oder; Dirk Witthaut; Philipp C. B\"ottcher
    Abstract: Understanding the structure and formation of networks is a central topic in complexity science. Economic networks are formed by decisions of individual agents and thus not properly described by established random graph models. In this article, we establish a model for the emergence of trade networks that is based on rational decisions of individual agents. The model incorporates key drivers for the emergence of trade, comparative advantage and economic scale effects, but also the heterogeneity of agents and the transportation or transaction costs. Numerical simulations show three macroscopically different regimes of the emerging trade networks. Depending on the specific transportation costs and the heterogeneity of individual preferences, we find centralized production with a star-like trade network, distributed production with all-to-all trading or local production and no trade. Using methods from statistical mechanics, we provide an analytic theory of the transitions between these regimes and estimates for critical parameters values.
    Date: 2022–12
    Abstract: Recently, the intensification of U.S.-China strategic competition, spread of COVID-19 infections, and the Russia-Ukraine war are disrupting the global supply chain and increasing instability in the global economy. The resulting instability in the supply of semiconductors, medicines, food, and energy is leading to an economic downturn, and the U.S., China, Japan, and EU are actively pursuing strategies to strengthen economic security. The key to recent economic security is the U.S.-China strategic competition. Because the United States is re-tightening economic-security links that were loosened in the post-Cold War era to counter China's economic rise. And the concept of recent economic security largely includes the elements of economic statecraft, economic resilience, and building mutual trust.
    Keywords: Geopolitical Risk; U.S.-China Strategic Competition; Economic Security
    Date: 2022–09–01
  86. By: Fawzi Banao (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles); Bertrand Laporte (UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)
    Abstract: The actions of terrorist groups destabilize border states and economies. The presence of mining activities, such as gold extraction, favors the illicit export of this ore to finance terrorist groups. Using COMTRADE data, we estimate gold customs fraud with mirror analysis (gold export missing) for 50 African countries between 2000 and 2019. We use ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, generalized method of moments, and local impulse strategy in our empirical strategies to estimate the impact of terrorism on gold customs fraud. Our results suggest that states affected by terrorism must pay more attention to the trafficking of gold, as this is a valued mineral for terrorist groups. The response to conflict with terrorist groups cannot be solely military. The State must necessarily get the various state services to work together, particularly the army, the police, and customs. The institutionalization of this cooperation remains a real challenge for these states. Regarding customs administration efficiency, data analysis is at the core of customs modernization programs. Only internal and external trade data have been used in risk management systems. Cooperation with the armed forces must allow the acquisition of tools and skills to analyze other data sources, such as satellite data. Customs could then carry out all of its missions at the borders: collecting duties and taxes but also protecting the local/border economy and cutting off the funding sources for terrorist groups.
    Keywords: Customs fraud, Terrorism, Mirror analysis, Gold, Performance of customs administration
    Date: 2022–12–07
  87. By: Davidson, Carl (Michigan State University); Heyman, Fredrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Matusz, Steven (Michigan State University); Sjöholm, Fredrik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Chun Zhu, Susan (Michigan State University)
    Abstract: This paper examines how experience from working in a foreign-owned firm affects worker mobility. International experience can be expected to provide a worker with knowledge about foreign operations, thereby making them more attractive to other employers who are also engaged in international business. We follow workers in local Swedish firms where some experience an internationalization shock when their firm is acquired by a foreign multinational firm. Matching acquired firms with a group of similar control firms and applying a stacked difference-in-differences estimation approach, we find that international experience increases the likelihood of job switching to a multinational firm by around 4 percentage points and decreases the likelihood of job switching to a local firm by around 5 percentage points. Moreover, the post-acquisition wage growth rate is 10 percentage points higher for workers moving to MNEs as compared to stayers at acquired firms, leading to a steeper wage growth trajectory for movers to MNEs.
    Keywords: Globalization; Multinational firms; FDI; Job mobility
    JEL: F16 F66 J60
    Date: 2022–12–22
  88. By: Leipziger, Danny (George Washington Univ.); Yusuf , Shahid (Growth Dialogue)
    Abstract: The history of South Korea’s spectacular growth trajectory is based on its export prowess, and that industrialization narrative is based on a supply chain strategy that connected the economy to the global economy. Korea was able to manage this process with tremendous efficiency and success. Contrary to the experience of past decades, however, the current global constellation of factors and other supply- chain realities are forcing a re-examination of this approach. What specifically has changed? First, the reliability of supply chains was severely impaired by the Covid-19 pandemic and its consequences. Near-shoring or on-shoring became much more attractive as compared with efficient global supply chain management and the costs of interruptions as compared with higher inventory levels has changed the production calculus. Second, the continuation of a bitter economic rivalry between the United States and China has seen both nations trying to become more resilient in the procurement of inputs, with consequences for others, such as Korea. Third, the nature of production has shifted with new technologies and the necessity of securing essential minerals and metals needed for new products, such as electric car batteries and micro-chips. These factors mean that industries that that don’t quickly adapt to new circumstances will suffer competitive disadvantages in the global marketplace. South Korea has long prided itself on being an industrial powerhouse that can insulate itself from many global disturbances. However, as the scenario analysis undertaken by KIEP in 2017 has shown, innocent by-standers can be affected by trade wars, global turndowns, and now pandemics. Korea’s “middle power status “does not provide sufficient insurance in a world of shifting supply chains and geo-political strife. For this reason, KIEP has undertaken a new analysis of supply chain management with the aim of understanding new developments and better protecting today’s, and more importantly, tomorrow’s industries from future shocks. The purpose of this study is to identify Korea’ vulnerabilities and to take a first step at suggesting changes in both government and corporate actions to help protect the economy. As Gereffi (2021) notes the disruptions resulting from the Covid pandemic uncovered supply chain fragilities that companies had previously ignored. As a result, all economies, especially, highly open economies like Korea, must now reassess the risks to existing supply chains.(the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Global Supply Chains; a Post-Covid Multipolar World; Korea’s Options
    Date: 2022–10–28
  89. By: Miguel Montanya
    Abstract: Abstract: This article contributes to the debate around the meaning and extent of changes to Argentina’s economy between 2002 and 2015 (usually referred to as the “Post-Convertibility†period), in contrast to the policies of 1991-2001 (known as the “Convertibility†period), as these changes may have altered operation of the Argentine economy following the abandonment of both the industrialization of import substitution and IMF adjustment policies. Specifically, this research focuses on external insertion, both commercial and financial. It is concluded that a common element throughout both periods was the persistence of trade specialization based on the primary sector and low value added products, while Argentina’s financial insertion in the world economy was characterized by vulnerability and dependency, subject to the reactions of international commodity prices to changes in geopolitics and the global economy. These factors continue to determine financing conditions for the Argentine economy. Resumen: Este artículo pretende contribuir al debate en torno al significado y alcance de los cambios económicos operados en la economía argentina entre 2002 y 2015 (habitualmente citado como «posconvertibilidad»), en contraste con las políticas del periodo 1991-2001 (conocido como «convertibilidad»), por cuanto hayan podido dar paso a un funcionamiento diferente de la economía argentina tras el abandono tanto de la industrialización sustitutiva de importaciones como de las políticas de ajuste de corte fondomonetarista. En concreto, la presente investigación se centra en la inserción exterior, tanto comercial como financiera. Se concluye que un elemento común en todo el periodo ha sido la persistencia de la especialización comercial fundamentada en productos primarios y de bajo valor anadido, mientras que su inserción financiera en la economía mundial cabe caracterizarla por la vulnerabilidad y la dependencia, fundamentadas en la variabilidad de los precios internacionales de las commodities a los cambios en la coyuntura política y económica mundial. Estos son los factores que determinan las condiciones de financiación de la economía argentina.
    Keywords: External insertion, trade specialization, financial capitalinserción externa, especialización interna, capital financiero
    JEL: O16 O54 E63 O11
    Date: 2022–01–29
  90. By: Penha, Thales
    Abstract: The paper aims to analyse the impacts on social upgrading in the two main fruit-produc-ing areas of the Brazilian Northeast – Açú-Mossoró and Petrolina-Juazeiro. The concept of decent work deficit was elected as a guideline for the theoretical background, as many authors have applied it to address social upgrading in a more objective way. The paper has adopted the time series econometric analysis to identify possible structural breaks in the formal workers’ demand per hectare for the two regions. The main results indicate some structural breaks in the formal labour market in both regions. This corroborates with the literature that some institutional changes impact working conditions. However, the intensity and direction of these impacts differed in each researched area. With the results is possible to affirm that a decrease in the decent work deficit resulted from the enforcement of the labour laws since the emergence of a new institutional environment.
    Date: 2022–12
  91. By: Balandina Galina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This research analyzes the applicable methods for estimating illegal imports and the level of collection of customs duties and taxes, describes the foreign experience in measuring the so-called "tax gaps" and the share of illegal imports.
    Keywords: tax gap, estimate of the level of gray imports
    Date: 2021–01
  92. By: Hubert Bonin (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Whilst being enrooted in public "common goods", French utilities, either State-controlled or private, became more and more committed to strategies of developing abroad their portfolio of engineering and managing skills. They followed the past of economic imperialism along geopolitics in emerging countries (Russia, Ottoman Empire, Latin America), then also throughout the colonial empire; such offensives were embodied by the adventure of the Suez Canal. From the 1980s, the reconstruction of the worldwide connections opened doors to geoeconomics, that is the will to resist competition and to conquer market shares abroad thanks to the valuation of capital of competence and trust. Every public, privatised or already quoted companies took part to the run for concessions and the deliveries of engineering and managing services (waste, water, postal, railway, bus, energy utilities). This contributed to the competitiveness of French economy and economic patriotism.
    Keywords: Internationalised public services, Concessions abroad, Suez Canal, Globalised business models, Colonial equipment
    Date: 2022–12–09
  93. By: Patricia Laurens (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ESIEE Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Schoen (Université Gustave Eiffel); Philippe Larédo (Université Gustave Eiffel)
    Date: 2020–12–06

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