nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒11‒28
28 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs By Jung, Benjamin
  2. Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) By Morgan, Stephen; Farris, Jarrad; Johnson, Michael E.
  3. Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation By Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
  4. Do Free Trade Agreements Benefit Developing Countries? An Examination of U.S. Agreements By Ajewole, Kayode; Beckman, Jayson; Gerval, Adam; Johnson, William; Morgan, Stephen; Sabala, Ethan
  5. Trade Policy Coherence and Coordination in Nepal : An Explanatory Assessment By Paras Kharel; Kshitiz Dahal
  6. Agricultural Market Access Under Tariff-Rate Quotas By Beckman, Jayson; Gale, Fred; Lee, Tani
  7. Who Benefits from RCEP? Application of Trade Policy Tools By Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Barral, Mark Anthony A.; Andrada, Abigail E.
  8. Global Knowledge and Trade Flows: Theory and Measurement By Nelson Lind; Natalia Ramondo
  9. Mechanics of Spatial Growth By Sheng Cai; Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro; Wei Xiang
  10. China's Import Potential for Beef, Corn, Pork, and Wheat By Beckman, Jayson; Gale, Fred; Morgan, Stephen; Sabala, Ethan; Ufer, Danielle J.; Valcu-Lisman, Adriana; Zeng, Wendy; Arita, Shawn
  11. EU carbon border adjustment mechanism faces many challenges By Gary Clyde Hufbauer; Jeffrey J. Schott; Megan Hogan; Jisun Kim
  12. Analysis of Ghana’s Local Milk Value Chain: barriers to competitiveness By Boimah, M.; Gunarathne, A.; Behrendt, L.
  13. Welfare effects of common ownership in an international duopoly By Liu, Yi; Matsumura, Toshihiro
  14. Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual Methods in IO and Trade Compared By Keith Head; Thierry Mayer
  15. Prospects for Growth in U.S. Dairy Exports to Southeast Asia By Davis, Christopher G; Cessna, Jerry
  16. Export Market Size Matters: The effect of the market size of export destinations on manufacturing growth By Thomas Goda, Santiago Sánchez
  17. Linking Innovation Systems, International Integration, and Investment Climate to Firm Productivity in Developing Countries: By Mahyar Adibi; Keun Lee
  18. Trade and Selection with Heterogeneous Firms and Perfect Competition By Xue Bai; Arpita Chatterjee; Kala Krishna; Hong Ma
  19. Gains from Trade and the Food Engel Curve By Farrokhi, Farid; Jinkins, David; Xiang, Chong
  20. Instrumental-Variable Estimation Of Exponential Regression Models With Two-Way Fixed Effects With An Application To Gravity Equations By Koen Jochmans; Vincenzo Verardi
  21. The Impact of Immigration on Workers’ Protection By Adam Levai; Riccardo Turati
  22. Exploring the Drivers of Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Interactive Effect of Globalization and Financial Development By Yakubu, Ibrahim Nandom
  23. The Short-Term Labor Market Impact of Venezuelan Immigration in Peru By Celia P. Vera; Bruno Jiménez
  24. The effects of cross-border acquisitions on firms’ productivity in the EU By Wildmer Daniel Gregori; Maria Martinez Cillero; Michela Nardo
  25. Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions By Isil Erel; Yeejin Jang; Michael S. Weisbach
  26. The Role of Immigrants, Emigrants, and Locals in the Historical Formation of Knowledge Agglomerations By Philipp Koch; Viktor Stojkoski; C\'esar A. Hidalgo
  27. Global profit shifting, 1975-2019 By Ludvig Wier; Gabriel Zucman
  28. International Food Security Assessment, 2022–32 By Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Cardell, Lila; Valdes, Constanza; Ajewole, Kayode; Zeng, Wendy; Beckman, Jayson; Ivanic, Maros; Hashad, Reem N.; Jelliffe, Jeremy; Kee, Jennifer

  1. By: Jung, Benjamin
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Morgan, Stephen; Farris, Jarrad; Johnson, Michael E.
    Abstract: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) connects 1.3 billion people across 55 countries and presents a significant opportunity for increased economic growth in Africa. AfCFTA may also spur increases in foreign direct investment (FDI) on the continent by reducing regulatory barriers and expanding market access. This report examines emerging trends in FDI in Africa that may further shift under AfCFTA. Particular attention is given to assessing the sources and destinations of private investment in Africa and sectoral investment patterns. European investors remain the most important source of FDI stock in Africa, but the relative share of Africa’s FDI stock originating from Europe declined over the past decade, while Asia’s share increased. The destinations of FDI in Africa also shifted, with Northern and Southern Africa—which made up the majority of FDI stock in the mid-2000s—losing FDI share to Eastern Africa. Additionally, industries related to natural resource extraction that once dominated the sectoral composition of newly created subsidiaries in Africa made up less than one-third of greenfield FDI in Africa in 2016–20.
    Keywords: Financial Economics, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022–10–19
  3. By: Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
    Abstract: A frequently employed argument against imposing international sanctions is that rival superpowers are likely to bust sanctions to simultaneously shield the target, harm the sender, and make a profit. We evaluate the legitimacy of this concern by studying the effect of US sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 1995-2019 using panel difference-in-differences estimations and an event study design. Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully undermine US sanction efforts, we test whether target countries' trade with China and Russia increases under US trade sanctions. We find no evidence for systematic sanction busting. Russia does not change its trade patterns with sanctioned countries. Trade of targets of US sanctions with China declines even more than trade with the US. These general patterns are reconfirmed for trade in different groups of commodities. In addition, we find some evidence that a reduction in industrial value added and a devaluation of the domestic currency of the target country are transmission channels through which US sanctions hamper trade with third countries.
    Keywords: Geopolitics, international political economy, international sanctions, trade substitution
    JEL: F13 F14 F50 F51 F52 F53 K33
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Ajewole, Kayode; Beckman, Jayson; Gerval, Adam; Johnson, William; Morgan, Stephen; Sabala, Ethan
    Abstract: The United States has 14 free trade agreements (FTAs) in force across 20 countries—the majority of which are lower- or middle-income countries—what the authors of this report consider to be developing countries. FTAs are generally described as beneficial to a country as they generally lower prices; however, countries might be hesitant to enter into an agreement with a more economically developed country such as the United States. This report uses trend analysis to see whether movements in trade, production, and gross domestic product (GDP) data are consistent with the notion that FTAs produce beneficial effects for developing countries—focusing on FTA agreements between developing countries and the United States. Agricultural trade for U.S. imports and exports generally increased in the FTAs analyzed for this report. Given that many U.S. FTA partners have similar production profiles, data indicate that specialization occurs when a country switches production (and trade) to products where the countries own a comparative advantage in production (e.g., Colombia coffee). An increase in agricultural imports from the United States and a switch to specialization might impact individual commodities, but the data indicate that developing countries largely improved agricultural trade after implementing an FTA with the United States.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics
    Date: 2022–09–27
  5. By: Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment); Kshitiz Dahal (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment)
    Abstract: This paper is an exploratory assessment of the coherence of policies, strategies and laws that have a bearing on Nepal's international trade, and the mechanism and extent of coordination between government agencies and between the government and the private sector in trade-related decision making, including policy formulation and implementation. It outlines possible measures for achieving policy coherence and improved inter-agency coordination.
    Keywords: Trade policy, tariffs, revenue, non-tariff measures, export promotion, import substitution, institutions, coordination failure
    JEL: F10 F13 H20
    Date: 2021–03
  6. By: Beckman, Jayson; Gale, Fred; Lee, Tani
    Abstract: ERS surveys the first 20 years of World Trade Organization members’ tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for agricultural products, providing data for an analysis of how TRQ market access for agricultural products has evolved from 1995 to 2015 and the extent to which TRQs are fulfilling their goal of increasing that access.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2021–01
  7. By: Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Barral, Mark Anthony A.; Andrada, Abigail E.
    Abstract: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) gathers 10 ASEAN countries and five partners, namely, the Republic of Korea, China, Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. RCEP covers a market of 2.2 billion consumers and accounts for more than 30 percent of the global GDP. The agreement was signed last November 15, 2020 through a video conference with the abovementioned countries. RCEP is the largest free trade agreement and can be a catalyst for economic development for the Philippines. However, there are economic and political concerns being raised against RCEP. This paper contributes to the discussion on RCEP by providing a policy tool that calculates the impact of the trade agreement on exports and GDP. The calculations show that RCEP has a positive impact on Philippine exports and GDP. Other top gainers would be Vietnam and Korea. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email
    Keywords: regional integration; trade; sustainable development; digital
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Nelson Lind; Natalia Ramondo
    Abstract: We study the global innovation and diffusion of ideas by introducing trade into the model in Eaton and Kortum (1999) (EK). This extension allows us to use international trade flows and country-level factor costs to estimate both the intensity of innovation within countries over time and diffusion rates across countries. We find significant specialization across the globe: some countries have high innovation rates, while other countries rely on diffusion. Although innovation is correlated with economic growth, there are many high income countries that primarily produce using diffused ideas. Additionally, these patterns shift over time — we estimate that a wave of innovation began in China during the early-2000’s, reducing its reliance on diffused technology.
    JEL: F1 O3 O4
    Date: 2022–10
  9. By: Sheng Cai; Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro; Wei Xiang
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial growth model to explore the role of trade and internal migration in the process of spatial development and aggregate growth. Growth is shaped by the best global and local ideas that contribute to the local stock of knowledge. Global ideas diffuse more to locations that are relatively more exposed to international trade. Local ideas are diffused across space when workers move to another location. We embed the diffusion of ideas through trade and migration into a multi-country, multi-region framework with international trade, forward-looking dynamic migration decisions, and endogenous capital accumulation. We apply our framework to study the role of initial conditions, international trade, and internal migration on China’s spatial development and aggregate growth during the 1990s and 2000s. We find that initial conditions across space, idea diffusion, and capital accumulation play an important role in understanding the process of spatial development and aggregate growth in China. Changes in international trade costs and mobility restrictions during the 1990s and 2000s also contribute to aggregate growth, with large heterogeneity across space.
    JEL: F1 F10 F16 O1 O15
    Date: 2022–10
  10. By: Beckman, Jayson; Gale, Fred; Morgan, Stephen; Sabala, Ethan; Ufer, Danielle J.; Valcu-Lisman, Adriana; Zeng, Wendy; Arita, Shawn
    Abstract: China is one of the top importers of agricultural products, but it has nontariff measures that prevent its imports from growing even larger. In this report, the authors develop a quantitative framework to examine China’s import market potential using a price wedge approach—the difference between domestic and imported prices—for commodities that are imported by China. The report estimates the impact of removing these barriers for the four highest wedges using a global economic model. Domestic prices in China exceeded foreign prices (using the United States as an example) by large margins for the four commodities we considered, as follows: beef (58 percent), corn (64 percent), pork (213 percent), and wheat (42 percent). Estimates reveal that removing these price wedges could lead to more imports into China. Benefits would be widespread, increasing sales for producers in the United States and other exporting countries and yielding lower food prices for China’s consumers.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Political Economy
    Date: 2022–08–25
  11. By: Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Megan Hogan (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jisun Kim (POSCO Research Institute)
    Abstract: This Policy Brief assesses the evolving EU Emissions Trading System and EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and explains objections within Europe and from major trading countries likely to be affected by the proposed CBAM import levies. While EU officials have sought to ensure that the CBAM is consistent with obligations under the World Trade Organization (WTO), key aspects of the CBAM could violate WTO rules and are likely to be contested, taking years to play out. Meanwhile, several other countries will adopt new carbon-inspired border restrictions, adding to global trade frictions. Major carbon-emitting countries, therefore, need to act cooperatively instead of unilaterally to both advance the fight against climate change and update the rules-based global trading system. Two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions result from nontraded activities, such as road transport, electricity generation, and home and office heating. Countries can curb emissions in these activities, while developing guidelines for carbon abatement in traded sectors.
    Date: 2022–10
  12. By: Boimah, M.; Gunarathne, A.; Behrendt, L.
    Abstract: Ghana imports more milk and other dairy products yearly than it produces. Even for what is processed domestically, almost all are exclusively made from imported milk powder. It is in this regard that this study was initiated to analyze the barriers to the local dairy sector’s competitiveness employing both primary and secondary data sources. For the collection of primary data, in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants. A total of 34 actors along the local fresh milk and milk powder value chains were sampled and interviewed and the data descriptively analyzed. Results show that the local milk value chain of Ghana is informal, not developed and with minimal value addition to fresh milk compared to the value chain of imported milk powder. Moreover, local products sold on the Ghanaian markets do not undergo any form of safety tests and have not been approved by the regulatory and standard authorities. Further, a host of challenges along the local milk value chain are identified as factors limiting its competitiveness. Nevertheless, a window of opportunity for developing the local milk value chain is presented considering the growing demand for fresh milk-based dairy products in Ghana as well as increasing international trade to integrate into the Global Value Chain.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2021–06
  13. By: Liu, Yi; Matsumura, Toshihiro
    Abstract: We formulate an international oligopoly model in the presence of global common ownership. We theoretically investigate how common ownership affects the volume of international trade in an oligopoly market and global welfare. We find that welfare decreases (increases) with the degree of common ownership when the international transport costs are low (high)
    Keywords: overlapping ownership, transport cost, welfare-improving production substitution
    JEL: F12 K21 L13
    Date: 2022–10–13
  14. By: Keith Head (UBC - University of British Columbia); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand for monopolistically competitive firm-varieties is a standard tool for models in international trade and macroeconomics. Inter-variety substitution in this model follows a simple share proportionality rule. In contrast, the standard toolkit in industrial organization (IO) estimates a demand system in which cross-elasticities depend on similarity in observable attributes. The gain in realism from the IO approach comes at the expense of requiring richer data and greater computational challenges. This paper uses the dataset of Berry et al. (1995), who established the modern IO method, to simulate counterfactual trade policy experiments. We use the CES model as an approximation of the more complex underlying demand system and market structure. Although the CES model omits key elements of the data generating process, the errors are offsetting, leading to reasonably accurate counterfactual predictions. For aggregate outcomes, it turns out that incorporating non-unitary pass-through matters more than fixing oversimplified substitution patterns. We do so by extending the commonly used methods of Exact Hat Algebra and tariff elasticity estimation to take into account oligopoly.
    Keywords: Constant Elasticity of Substitution,Industrial Organization,Oligopoly,Trade,Tariffs,Counterfactual analysis
    Date: 2022–12–07
  15. By: Davis, Christopher G; Cessna, Jerry
    Abstract: Food demand in Southeast Asia (SEA) is expected to grow in the coming decades, creating opportunities for exporters of dairy products. This study examines the prospects for growth of U.S. dairy exports to the SEA region, and how the U.S. potential to gain or lose market share varies from one Southeast Asian country to another and among products.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Industrial Organization
    Date: 2020–12
  16. By: Thomas Goda, Santiago Sánchez
    Abstract: Literature contends that the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic development, and it is conventional wisdom that exports drive manufacturing growth. However, it has not yet been established empirically whether the market size of export destinations is an important factor to explain diverging regional and sectorial manufacturing growth patterns. This article argues that accessing large external markets reduces transaction costs, increases expectations of economies of scale and fosters capital formation. To test this hypothesis, we construct a novel Relative Export Market Size (REMS) index that measures whether the share of sectoral exports that are destined to large economies in one region is higher than in other regions. Using a PVAR model, we verify the impact of the REMS index on value added, employment and capital accumulation of 129 manufacturing sectors in 23 regions in Colombia during the period 1992-2017. The obtained results show that exporting to larger markets has a positive impact on employment, capital formation and value added per capita of manufacturing sectors at a regional level. This finding indicates that exporting to the largest market of the world helps to develop competitive manufacturing sectors.
    Keywords: Export market size; manufacturing exports; trade; manufacturing growth; regional growth; industrialization
    Date: 2022–11–09
  17. By: Mahyar Adibi; Keun Lee
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the importance of investment climate (IC), international integration (II), and innovation system (IS) variables on firm productivity. These variables are measured at the firm, sector, and country levels, and the interaction effects among them are also investigated. Multilevel-mixed effect analysis is conducted using the World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 20 developing countries in 21 sectors. Results indicate that firm-level variables tend to be more robust than sector- or country-level variables, and that more II variables are shown be significant than either IC or IS variables. Specifically, sector-level II variables are significant, whereas sector-level IC variables and sector-level R&D variables are not significant. Sector-level IC and IS variables become significant only when they interact with firm-level variables. The results underscore the importance of firm-level capabilities, which can be enhanced by II (e.g., firm-level learning by exporting and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) arrangement) and IS (e.g., firm-level education and training), as well as by spillover from sector-level II and human capital. Results also reveal the channels through which IC may affect firm productivity. IC exhibits an effect on firm productivity when it interacts with firm-level capabilities and activities.
    Keywords: Firm Productivity; Innovation Systems; Investment Climate; International Integration; Multilevel Analysis; Developing Country;
    JEL: O10 O29 O30 O57
    Date: 2022–11
  18. By: Xue Bai; Arpita Chatterjee; Kala Krishna; Hong Ma
    Abstract: This paper develops a new model with heterogeneous firms under perfect competition in a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson setting. We show that trade need not make selection in the comparative advantage sector stricter as suggested by earlier work. Selection is driven by the capital intensity in entry costs relative to production costs. If trade raises (reduces) the wage rental ratio, and entry costs are more labor intensive than production costs in a sector, then the ratio of entry cost to production costs will rise (fall) and selection will become weaker (stricter) in this sector. Moreover, we show that the central theorems of the HOS model (as well as the standard generalizations using duality) carry over in our setting.
    JEL: F0 F11
    Date: 2022–11
  19. By: Farrokhi, Farid (Purdue University); Jinkins, David (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Xiang, Chong (Purdue University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which gains-from-trade predictions from commonly-used trade theories are consistent with observed household consumption decisions. Our approach is based on inference from household-level estimation of food Engel curves in the US and in a few other countries. For a given price index as the deflator of income, deviations from food Engel curves indicate how biased that price index is relative to the true household price index. We construct open-economy price indices based on trade theory and data, evaluate their biases according to our approach, and compare them with the bias of official CPI statistics. We find that theory-consistent open-economy price indices that account for industry-level heterogeneity and input-output linkages tend to eliminate a large fraction of the bias of CPI.
    Keywords: Food Engel Curves; Price Indices; Household-level Consumption; Gains from Trade
    JEL: D12 E31 F14
    Date: 2022–10–29
  20. By: Koen Jochmans (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées); Vincenzo Verardi (Unknown)
    Abstract: This paper introduces instrumental-variable estimators for exponential-regression models that feature two-way fixed effects. These techniques allow us to develop a theory-consistent approach to the estimation of cross-sectional gravity equations that can accommodate the endogeneity of policy variables. We apply this approach to a data set in which the policy decision of interest is the engagement in a free trade agreement. We explore ways to exploit the transitivity observed in the formation of trade agreements to construct instrumental variables with considerable predictive ability. Within a bilateral model, the use of these instruments has strong theoretical foundations. We obtain point estimates of the partial effect of a preferential-trade agreement on trade volume that range between 20% and 30% and find no statistical evidence of endogeneity.
    Keywords: bias correction,count data,differencing estimator,endogeneity,fixed effects,gravity equatio,instrumental variable,transitivity.
    Date: 2022–08–23
  21. By: Adam Levai; Riccardo Turati
    Abstract: Even though the existing literature investigating the labor market impact of immigration assumes, implicitly or explicitly, that the law or labor market regulation is exogenous to immigration (in terms of both size and composition), this is not necessarily the case. To examine this link, we build a novel workers’ protection measure based on 36 labor law variables over a sample of 70 developed and developing countries from 1970 to 2010. Exploiting a dynamic panel setting using both internal and external instruments, we establish a new result: immigration impacts workers’ protection in the direction of the origin country workers’ protection (composition channel), while we find a small negative or null effect for the immigrant population (size channel). The composition channel, or the law transfer effect, is particularly strong for two components of the workers’ protection measure: worker representation laws and employment forms laws. Our results are consistent with suggestive evidence on transmission of preferences from migrants to their offspring (vertical transmission), and from migrants to natives or local political parties (horizontal transmission). Finally, calculations based on the estimated coefficients suggest that immigration, on average, contributes to a reduction in workers’ protection, particularly in OECD high-income countries.
    Keywords: Migration; Transmission of Preferences; Labor Market Institutions; Workers’ Protection; Labor Regulation; Legal Transplants
    JEL: F22 J61 K31
    Date: 2022–11
  22. By: Yakubu, Ibrahim Nandom
    Abstract: This study investigates how globalization and financial development interactively stimulate economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The author employs annual data spanning from 2000 to 2017 for 30 Sub-Saharan African countries and applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. The results show that while globalization significantly reduces economic growth, the impact of financial development on growth is positive when examined independently. With the interactive effect of globalization and financial development, a positive and statistically significant impact is documented. The study further reveals that trade openness significantly enhances growth while inflation inhibits growth. In light of the findings, the author presents key policy recommendations.
    Keywords: Globalization, Financial development, Economic growth, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F43 F62 G20
    Date: 2022–10–28
  23. By: Celia P. Vera (Universidad de Piura); Bruno Jiménez (Princeton University, CEDLAS & IIE-UNLP)
    Abstract: Peru is the second-largest recipient of Venezuelans worldwide. We combine newly available data on Venezuelans living in Peru and the Peruvian Household Survey to assess the impact of Venezuelan migration on natives’ wages and employment. The initial regression analysis exploits the variation in supply shifts across education-experience groups over time. It indicates that immigration in Peru had no adverse impact on native wages. However, the paper highlights that in Peru immigrants and natives with similar education and experience are likely to work in different occupations. The subsequent analysis based on occupational clustering confirms the null effect on wages and indicates that a 20% increase in immigrants decreases formal employment by 6%. We do not find evidence for changes in employment composition toward informality so that migration operates through the extensive margin of employment. We report evidence in favor of immigrants being a close substitute to the least productive natives, suggesting that firms substitute native formal labor for low-cost immigrant informal labor.
    JEL: J24 J31 J46
    Date: 2022–10
  24. By: Wildmer Daniel Gregori (European Commission); Maria Martinez Cillero (European Commission); Michela Nardo (European Commission)
    Abstract: This study empirically investigates the extent to which firms in the European Union, once acquired through a cross-border acquisition, show different productivity levels as compared to those firms that have not been acquired. Our identification strategy relies on the combination of Propensity Scores and the Staggered Difference-in-Difference estimator, using firms’ balance sheet for the years 2008-2018. We find that cross-border acquisitions decrease the productivity of the acquired firms, especially in the manufacturing sector, both high- and low-tech. We find evidence of origin and sector heterogeneity. Firms targeted by acquirers with ultimate owners originating in emerging market economies and Offshore Financial Centres also decrease productivity of target firms in high-tech manufacturing.
    Keywords: Cross-border M&As, TFP, European Union, Propensity Score, DiD
    JEL: G
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Isil Erel; Yeejin Jang; Michael S. Weisbach
    Abstract: One of the most consequential events in any firm’s lifetime is a major acquisition. Because of their importance, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been an enormous area of research. However, the vast majority of this research and survey papers summarizing this research have focused on domestic deals. Cross-border ones, however, constitute about 30% of the total number and 37% of the total volume of M&As around the world since the early 1990s. We survey the literature on cross-border M&As, focusing on international factors that can lead firms to acquire a firm in another country. Such factors include differences in economic development, laws, institutions, culture, labor rights, protection of intellectual property, taxes, and corporate governance.
    JEL: F0 G15 G34
    Date: 2022–10
  26. By: Philipp Koch; Viktor Stojkoski; C\'esar A. Hidalgo
    Abstract: Did migrants help make Paris a center for the arts and Vienna a beacon of classical music? Or was the rise of these knowledge agglomerations a sole consequence of local actors? Here, we use data on the biographies of more than 22,000 famous historical individuals born between the years 1000 and 2000 to estimate the contribution of famous immigrants, emigrants, and locals to the knowledge specializations of European regions. We find that the probability that a region develops a specialization in a new activity (physics, philosophy, painting, music, etc.) grows with the presence of immigrants with knowledge on that activity and of immigrants specialized in related activities. We also find that the probability that a region loses one of its existing areas of specialization decreases with the presence of immigrants specialized in that activity and in related activities. In contrast, we do not find robust evidence that locals with related knowledge play a statistically significant role in a region entering or exiting a new specialization. These findings advance our understanding of the role of migration in the historical formation of knowledge agglomerations.
    Date: 2022–10
  27. By: Ludvig Wier; Gabriel Zucman
    Abstract: This paper constructs time series of global profit shifting covering the 2015-19 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb profit shifting. We find that (i) multinational profits grew faster than global profits, (ii) the share of multinational profits booked in tax havens remained constant at around 37 per cent, and (iii) the fraction of global corporate tax revenue lost due to profit shifting rose from 9 to 10 per cent.
    Keywords: Profit shifting, Multinational firms, Taxation, Corporate tax
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Cardell, Lila; Valdes, Constanza; Ajewole, Kayode; Zeng, Wendy; Beckman, Jayson; Ivanic, Maros; Hashad, Reem N.; Jelliffe, Jeremy; Kee, Jennifer
    Abstract: Millions of people around the world are food insecure and do not have access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs for an active and healthy life. Using a demand-driven international food security assessment model, this report helps the U.S. Department of Agriculture and its stakeholders estimate food security trends in 77 low- and middle-income countries. Food security in countries covered in the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) report is expected to deteriorate in 2022 due to the continued effects of the Coronavirus 2019 pandemic and high food commodity prices that have been intensified by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. The number of food insecure people in 2022 is estimated at 1.3 billion in the 77 low- and middle-income countries covered by this assessment, an increase of 9.8 percent (118.7 million people) from the 2021 estimate. This increase implies that 32.9 percent of the population of the countries in the assessment may be unable to consume 2,100 kilocalories a day, an average caloric level necessary to sustain a healthy and active lifestyle. However, over the next 10 years, food security is projected to improve in all countries analyzed by this assessment. By 2032, the number of food insecure people in the 77 IFSA countries is projected to be 577.3 million and falling to 12.4 percent of the population (62.5 percent less than in 2022). Given the evolving nature of the conflict in Ukraine and a rapidly changing global macroeconomic environment, the estimation results presented in this report are more representative of a conservative scenario.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Public Economics
    Date: 2022–09–15

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