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on International Trade |
| By: | Chimere O. Iheonu (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Ekene ThankGod Emeka (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Princewill U. Okwoche (Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study complements existing literature by examining the short-run heterogeneous and long-run homogeneous impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade on ecological footprints in 37 African countries for the period 1990 to 2019. Utilizing the pooled mean group estimator, our findings show considerable heterogeneity in the impact of FDI and international trade on ecological footprints in the short run. In particular, the findings revealed that while FDI increases ecological footprints in Botswana, Egypt, and Mauritania, it reduces ecological footprints in Algeria, Comoros, Gambia, and Togo. Furthermore, the findings revealed that international trade increases ecological footprints in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, and Eswatini but reduces ecological footprints in Algeria, Mauritania, and Morocco. Nonetheless, the study finds that in the long run, FDI significantly reduces ecological footprints while international trade has no significant influence on the environment. The study further finds economic growth and population to be significant in propping up ecological footprints in the long run. Policy recommendations based on these findings are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, International Trade; Environmental Sustainability; Ecological Footprints; Pooled Mean Group |
| JEL: | C33 F18 F21 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/068&r= |
| By: | Francisco Requena (Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain); Guadalupe Serrano (Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain); Raúl Mínguez (Chamber of Commerce of Spain & Universidad Nebrija, Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of imports of intermediate inputs on export value and scope among Spanish regular two-way trade manufacturing firms over the period 1997-2018. After controlling for firm characteristics and addressing endogeneity using an IV strategy, we find that firms that import intermediate inputs from non-EUEFTA countries enhance the volume and scope of their EU15 exports. The impact was higher when firms imported intermediate inputs from the high-income non-EUEFTA countries before the 2008 financial crisis. However, since 2008, purchase of intermediate inputs from the low-income non-EUEFTA countries become as relevant as those from high income countries. We interpret this apparently surprising result as the optimal response of Spanish firms to diversify their import portfolio as a consequence of an increase in the product upgrading and quality improvement of cheaper intermediate inputs from developing countries after the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level data, exports value, firm scope, imports of intermediate inputs, origin of imports, pre and post-crisis |
| JEL: | F23 F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2206&r= |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | This brief examines the development of Russia's trade flows in the March-June period following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia ceased publication of foreign trade statistics after the war broke out, so we utilize the trade statistics of Russia's major trading partners. We find that Russia's imports declined substantially in the period with the country struggling to find alternative import sources. On the other hand, Russian export revenues increased post-invasion due to high commodity prices, the lag in transition periods for EU import restrictions and higher export volumes going to other markets. Russian industrial output reflects a shift in foreign trade. High-tech industries reliant on imported inputs contracted, while output remained robust for some export-oriented industries. The first months of war show sanctions took an increasing toll on the Russian economy, seriously eroding the country's long-term growth potential. |
| Keywords: | Russia,trade,sanctions |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:52022&r= |
| By: | Maria-Isabel Ayuda (Universidad de Zaragoza); Ignacio Belloc (Universidad de Zaragoza); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Since the mid-1990s, Latin American countries have substantially increased their agri-food exports, recovering a considerable part of their weight of overall global exports. The objective of this article is to explain the characteristics of the exporting boom experienced between 1994 and 2019 and its determining factors. To do this, we analyse the evolution of exports, their composition by product, the principal origins and destinations, the importance of the regional trade agreements and the behaviour of their prices. Furthermore, a series of gravity models are estimated, using the agri-food exports of nineteen Latin American countries to their 186 principal trading partners between 1994 and 2019. These models are estimated for total agri-food exports and for their breakdown into three product groups. Among the main determinants identified, our results suggest that external demand and the proliferation of regional trade agreements were the principal reasons of this export boom. |
| Keywords: | latin american international trade, agri-food industry, re-primarisation, regional trade agreements, gravity model |
| JEL: | F14 N76 Q17 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2206&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Bécuwe (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Bertrand Blancheton (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Samuel Maveyraud (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using an original dataset and theoretical framework, this paper offers a reinterpretation of the French wine international trade after external shocks during wine globalization based on trade policy. To maintain external position, particularly after phylloxera, French authorities promoted the development of Algerian vineyards by complex discrimination in tariffs. We highlight a negative relationship between discrimination in tariff policy and market share for wine trade partners to the detriment of Spain, Italy and Portugal and in favor of Algeria. By combining a counterfactual analysis and two theoretical models, we consider Algeria as a new competitor in an imperfect competition. Moreover, using data of wine quality at a desegregated level, we reveal that the control of imports by France allowed the diversification of the range of exports and maximisation of profits. |
| Keywords: | Wine,International trade,Tariff discrimination,Quality,External shocks |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03767178&r= |
| By: | Sergey Kokovin (Sobolev Institute of Mathematics - SB RAS - Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences); Pavel Molchanov (HSE - Vysšaja škola èkonomiki = National Research University Higher School of Economics [Moscow], AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Igor Bykadorov (Sobolev Institute of Mathematics - SB RAS - Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, NSU - Novosibirsk State University) |
| Abstract: | We study the canonical Krugman (1979) trade model with non-CES preferences that yield autarky at finite trade costs. We prove a non-monotone impact of gradual trade liberalization. At first, near autarky, emerging trade reduces world welfare, while at free trade it becomes large enough to be beneficial (Krugman's result). This non-monotonicity persists under heterogenous firms. The harmful small-scale trade is explained by variable markups and underpriced imports, which become socially excessive. Unlike protectionists, we argue that "liberalization should go far". On the other hand, we show that anti-dumping measures can be viewed as a remedy for the aforementioned imports distortion. |
| Keywords: | Trade gains,Monopolistic competition,Variable markups,Harmful trade,Autarky |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03740561&r= |
| By: | Michiel Gerritse (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Andrea Caragliu (Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | With China’s 2001 WTO accession, trade costs between the US and China fell sharply, but the transport costs of Chinese imports within the US remained sizable. We argue that domestic transport costs shield local labor markets from globalization. Using a shift-share design for industry-level Chinese imports across 42 ports of entry, we show that US job losses from competing imports occurred near the ports where they arrived. Once accounting for domestic transport costs, import competition affects coastal areas more than inland areas; shows larger impacts in housing markets and indirectly affected jobs; and explains voting, mortality and family formation |
| Keywords: | import competition, local labor markets, trade infrastructure, China syndrome, transport costs |
| JEL: | E24 F14 F16 R23 J23 J31 L60 O47 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:202200071&r= |
| By: | Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm |
| Abstract: | The present article has examined the effect of the duration of the membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and/or the World Trade Organization (WTO) (and not the mere membership in the GATT/WTO) on human development, considered as a measure of citizens' welfare. The theoretical hypothesis underpinning the analysis is that by fostering export product upgrading, the duration of the membership in the GATT/WTO would reduce economic growth volatility, and consequently promotes human development. The analysis has relied on a panel dataset of 148 developed and developing countries, over the period from 1990 to 2019. It has provided support for the theoretical hypothesis by showing that the membership duration fosters human development in countries that enjoy a high level of export product upgrading, measured through export product diversification, the quality of export products, and the level of economic complexity. Countries with low levels of export product upgrading experience no significant effect of the membership duration on the growth of human development. Interestingly, the membership duration is associated with a higher growth of human development regardless of countries' degree of economic growth volatility. However, the lower the level of economic growth volatility, the larger is the magnitude of the positive effect of the membership duration on the growth of human development. Finally, there exists an heterogenous effect of the membership duration on the growth rate of human development across countries in the full sample, reflecting the degree of stringency of countries' accession procedures to the GATT/WTO. |
| Keywords: | Duration of the membership in the GATT/WTO,Human development,Export product upgrading,Economic growth volatility |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:265061&r= |
| By: | Juan A. Sanchis Llopis (Universitat de València); Silviano Juan A. Mañez Castillejo (Universitat de València); Andrés Mauricio Gómez-Sánchez (Universidad del Cauca) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the dynamic linkages between firms’ imports of intermediate inputs and exports, for Colombia, an emerging economy. We use data for manufacturing firms from the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey, for the period 2007-2016. We specially focus on the identification of direct and indirect effects of past importing/exporting experience on the likelihood of exporting and importing intermediates. We understand by indirect effects those that accrue from past experience (in exporting and importing intermediates) on the probability of exporting/importing intermediates, through enhanced productivity. Further, we analyse both own-direct effects of exporting (importing) and cross-direct effects of exporting (importing) on importing (exporting). Finally, we identify and quantify the role of sunk costs and learning in explaining exporting and importing persistence. The estimation results suggest the relevance of both direct and indirect effects (own and cross) to explain firms’ exports and imports of intermediates decisions. |
| Keywords: | Exports, Imports of intermediates, bivariate probit, TFP, emerging country |
| JEL: | C35 D24 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2203&r= |
| By: | Jerg Gutman; Hans Pitlik; Andrea Fronaschütz; Jerg Gutmann |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused disruptions in international trade and highlighted the dependency of small open economies in Europe on imports, especially of energy. These events may have changed Europeans’ attitude towards globalization. We study two waves of representative population surveys conducted in Austria, one right before the Russian invasion and the other two months later. Our unique dataset allows us to assess changes in the Austrian public’s attitudes towards globalization and import dependency as a short-term reaction to economic turbulences and geopolitical upheaval at the onset of war in Europe. We show that two months after the invasion, anti-globalization sentiment in general has not spread, but that people have become more concerned about strategic external dependencies, especially in energy imports, suggesting that citizens’ attitudes regarding globalization are differentiated. |
| Keywords: | Austria, crisis, conflict, globalization attitudes, war |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F52 N40 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9915&r= |
| By: | Carzaniga, Antonia Giulia; Sharma, Swati |
| Abstract: | When it comes to services traded through the international movement of individuals (mode 4), Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have increasingly adopted trade-facilitating disciplines that both build upon and innovate the GATS framework. By analysing relevant provisions of RTAs, we are able to identify trends and commonalities in approach. We find that mode 4 RTA disciplines address mostly aspects related to transparency and application procedures. With the exception of low-income economies, these provisions have been adopted in RTAs concluded by WTO Members across all income levels and all geographic regions, albeit with differing intensity. This points to the potential for some of the improvements and innovations captured in RTAs to be considered in a wider, possibly multilateral, context. |
| Keywords: | temporary movement of natural persons,GATS mode 4,Regional Trade Agreements,regulatory disciplines |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F22 L8 K33 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd202212&r= |
| By: | Zhang, Ruosi; Sasanabanchakul, Chuwankorn |
| Abstract: | The scheduling approach constitutes a key element of services trade agreements as it is the means to pursue liberalization. This paper provides an overview of the scheduling approaches adopted in 187 trade agreements notified under GATS Article V as of 30 April 2022, analyses the differences between the positive and negative list approaches, and discusses their implications for negotiation strategies and trade policies. Theoretically, both positive and negative list approaches can achieve high level of liberalization as long as governments are willing to open market. We however note in this paper that the scheduling approach is not a stand-alone technique. Rather, it is associated with the design and legal structure of a services trade agreement as well as different core obligations. In addition, establishing a positive or a negative list usually entails different negotiation dynamics and internal consultation processes. With FTAs as important trade policy instruments fast evolving and deepening, governments are becoming more flexible and more "innovative" in their use of scheduling approaches, including creating different hybrid patterns to accommodate their sensitivities in certain sectors, supplementing the positive list with a standstill requirement, or allowing transition from the positive list to the negative list. Governments' practices in FTAs would be inspiring for future services trade negotiations, be it bilateral, plurilateral, or multilateral. |
| Keywords: | Trade in services,scheduling approaches |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd202213&r= |
| By: | Agramont Lechín, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Following Xi Jinping’s lead, China is heading towards a new modernization with the ambitious goal of becoming the leader in technological development. This has not gone unnoticed in the West, especially in the US. Tensions have increased, and a bilateral escalation is underway in what has already been dubbed as a return to great power competition. As a result, warnings are being voiced concerning a deepening of the deglobalization process, reinforced by an ongoing decoupling process between the two largest economies. This process is of special significance for the Andean Community, given that the contenders are its two largest trading partners. A first finding is that the Andean nations are far more dependent on trade with them than the other way around. This contradicts any notion that the Andean nations have a strong position in the world commodities trade. Nevertheless, several trade opportunities were found that stem from the trade tensions between China and the US. More importantly, it is shown that possibilities indeed exist to increase exports to both China and the US of non-traditional products over and above the usual commodity sales. Colombia has the largest opportunities in both destination markets, but one unexpected finding is that Ecuador has the second largest, with several such non-traditional products. Plus, Peru and Bolivia have several opportunities for diversification of exports to the US. |
| Keywords: | foreign policy; trade wars; China; Latin America; US; Andean region; primary dependence |
| JEL: | N26 F00 F50 F59 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:116642&r= |
| By: | Alejandra Martínez Martínez (Departamento de Estructura Económica, Facultad de Economía. Avda, de los Naranjos s/n. 46022, Valencia, Spain.); Silviano Esteve Pérez (University of Valencia and INTECO Joint Research Unit UJI-UV); Salvador Gil Pareja (University of Valencia and INTECO Joint Research Unit UJI-UV); Rafael Llorca Vivero (University of Valencia and INTECO Joint Research Unit UJI-UV) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of climate change on bilateral trade flows. To this end, we estimate a theory-grounded gravity model using bilateral trade flows on a sample of 65 countries during the period 1986-2016. We use temperatures and extreme weather events (and its consequences) as proxies for climate change. Overall, we find that international flows are less affected by the evolution of temperatures and events than domestic ones. However, there is an interesting heterogeneity across countries and across types of events. In particular, the results suggest that biological events (epidemics and insect infestation) have a negative differential impact on international flows relative to internal ones. Additionally, the differential average behaviour observed for China (the biggest exporter) is associated with the occurrence of storms (cyclones, tornados, convective hails, etc). Finally, our General Equilibrium estimations show that the aforementioned biological events have a remarkable negative impact on welfare. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Domestic flows, International flows, Temperatures, Weather events |
| JEL: | C1 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2208&r= |
| By: | Kevin Lim; Daniel Trefler; Miaojie Yu |
| Abstract: | Innovation depends on exporting and, in particular, on scale and competition in export markets. We develop a theory featuring (1) quality-segmented markets, (2) step-by-step innovation that moves firms forward along the quality ladder, and (3) escape-the-competition motives for innovation. We derive four predictions about the impact on innovation of scale and competition: a firm with a large and less-competitive quality segment ahead or forward of it will have strong incentives to innovate into this profitable segment, while a firm with a small and more-competitive quality segment behind it will also have strong incentives to innovate for fear of facing firms in this segment in the future. We take these predictions to Chinese firm-level data during a period of explosive export growth (2000-2006). Using information about scale and competition by quality segment in China's export markets, we confirm all four hypotheses. By implication, and unlike in standard CES models, the impact of trade on innovation depends critically on how it drives scale and competition in high- versus low-quality segments. |
| JEL: | F01 F12 F14 O3 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30455&r= |
| By: | Shunta Yamaguchi |
| Abstract: | Circular economy business models often rely on reverse supply chains and reverse logistics to close material loops, such as recycling waste and scrap into secondary raw materials, and extending product life by promoting direct reuse, repair, refurbishment and remanufacturing. Such activities can extend beyond borders and require the transboundary movement of end-of-life products to enable economies of scale. In this context, this report explores the opportunities and challenges for governments to facilitate cross-border reverse supply chains for a resource efficient and circular economy. It mainly focuses on the role of trade facilitation mechanisms and standards, and provides potential ways forward in utilising them to improve and strengthen cross-border reverse supply chains. The report also investigates other relevant policy responses such as addressing trade restrictions, combatting illegal waste trade, and introducing upstream policies such as eco-design initiatives that may work to support cross-border reverse supply chains. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, environment policy, resource efficiency, reverse logistics, reverse supply chains, standards, trade and environment, trade facilitation, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F18 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaaa:2022/02-en&r= |
| By: | Martina Miotto; Luigi Pascali |
| Abstract: | In the 19th century, the process of European expansion led to unprecedented changes in the urban landscape outside of Europe, with the urban population moving towards the coast and tripling in size. We argue that the majority of these changes can be explained by a single innovation, the chronometer, which allowed European explorers and merchants to measure longitude at sea. We use high-resolution global data on climate, ship routes, and demography from 1750 to 1900 to investigate empirically (i) the role of the adoption of the marine chronometer in re-routing trans-oceanic navigation, and (ii) the impact of these changes on the distribution of cities and population across the globe. Our identification relies on the differential impact of the chronometer across trans-oceanic sailing routes. |
| Keywords: | longitude, chronometer, gravity, globalization, trade, development |
| JEL: | F1 F15 F43 R12 R4 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1326&r= |
| By: | Keun Lee |
| Abstract: | Whereas all the latecomer economies have been open to invite FDI for their development, they found it tricky or hard to take advantage of FDI to bring up indigenous capabilities in production and innovation. Spillover effect of FDI does not occur if host countries do not focus on the linkages between FDI and the domestic economy. While observed to rely more on MNCs than South Korea, the success of Taiwanese catch-up is also supported by the eventual rise of indigenous. If this dimension of the global-local interface is wrongfully managed, MNCs will remain dominant in local economies, which might lead to premature de-industrialization or a middle-income trap. Thus, managing the global-local interface is a key determinant of building up technological capabilities and long-term success of latecomer economies. This paper will elaborate the importance of local value-added, knowledge and ownership, drawing upon several cases, such as several resource sectors in Chile and Malaysia, auto sectors in Thailand, Malaysia, China and Korea, and the three IT hubs of Shenzhen, Penang and Taipei in Asia. |
| Keywords: | Global-local Interface; Innovation; FDI; Technological Capabilities; GVC; Middle-income Trap; |
| JEL: | F14 F23 O19 O25 O38 O57 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snu:ioerwp:no150&r= |
| By: | Yin Li (Fudan University); William Lazonick (The Academic-Industry Research Network) |
| Abstract: | We employ the "social conditions of innovative enterprise" framework to analyze the key determinants of China's development path from the economic reforms of 1978 to the present. First, we focus on how government investments in human capabilities and physical infrastructure provided foundational support for the emergence of Chinese enterprises capable of technological learning. Second, we delve into the main modes by which Chinese firms engaged in technological learning from abroad -joint ventures with foreign multinationals, global value chains, and experienced high-tech returnees - that have contributed to industrial development in China. Third, we provide evidence on achievements in indigenous innovation - by which we mean improvements in national productive capabilities that build on learning from abroad and enable the innovating firms to engage in global competition - in the computer, automobile, communication - technology, and semiconductor - fabrication industries. Finally, we sketch out the implications of our approach for current debates on the role of innovation in China's development path as it continues to unfold. |
| Keywords: | China, investment, infrastructure, knowledge, indigenous innovation, globalization, development. |
| JEL: | D2 F2 F6 H1 H4 H5 H7 L1 L2 L5 L6 O1 O2 O3 O5 P1 |
| Date: | 2022–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp190&r= |
| By: | Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of FDI in Austria, as well as their spillovers to innovating technologies, productivity, and employment, using firm-level data, for the period 2008-2018. The findings point out that a decrease in the costs of trade increases investment in foreign-owned subsidiaries in Austria, and that FDI is pre-dominantly carried out in industries characterised by greater capital-intensity, higher wages, more agglomeration and regional concentration. Furthermore, FDI is higher in regions with a larger GDP and with a larger share of the population with upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education. The study also finds that there are positive spillovers of FDI to the domestic economy, which are strongest and most positive for innovative activities in environmental technologies. In other words, FDI helps Austrian firms to become more innovative in major environmental technologies. Such innovative efforts are best supported at the firm-level by supporting the total assets and investment of domestic firms, and at the regional level by increasing the share of the population with higher levels of education and employing more R&D personnel. The active presence of innovative foreign MNEs that enjoy extensive technological capacities, high-skilled labour, experienced management, and large-scale resources are also conducive to innovative activities. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Austria, spillovers, innovation, environmental technologies |
| JEL: | F21 F23 O30 Q55 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:221&r= |
| By: | Andre Groeger; Gianmarco León-Ciliotta; Steven Stillman |
| Abstract: | Venezuela is currently experiencing the biggest crisis in its recent history. This has led more than 5.6 million Venezuelans to emigrate, one million of those to Peru, which amounted to an increase of over 2 percent in the Peruvian population. Venezuelan immigrants in Peru are relatively similar in cultural terms, but, on average, more skilled than Peruvians. In this paper, we first examine Venezuelans’ perceptions about being discriminated against in Peru. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we document a causal relationship between the level of employment in the informal sector – where most immigrants are employed – and reports of discrimination. We then study the impact of Venezuelan migration on local’s labor market outcomes, reported crime rates and attitudes using a variety of data sources. We find that inflows of Venezuelans to particular locations led to increased employment and income among locals, decreased reported crime, and improved reported community quality. We conduct a heterogeneity analysis to identify the mechanisms behind these labor market effects and discuss the implications for Peruvian immigration policy. |
| Keywords: | immigration, forced migration, discrimination, labor markets, Peru, Venezuela |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1350&r= |
| By: | Koen Deconinck; Lucinda Toyama |
| Abstract: | Food systems exert major pressures on the environment. This paper reviews what is known and not known about environmental impacts along food supply chains, looking at the contribution of different stages of the supply chain, the impact of different products, heterogeneity among producers, and the role of international trade. This review shows that most environmental impacts in food supply chains occur through land use change or at the stage of agricultural production. Livestock (especially ruminant livestock) has a higher footprint than plant-based food. However, there is also important heterogeneity among producers, even within the same region. A significant share of total environmental impacts is "embodied" in international trade, although considerably less than half. In terms of evidence gaps, some impacts (e.g. biodiversity, soil carbon) have been less studied, and there are geographic and product blind spots. Moreover, existing evidence is not sufficiently granular. While important evidence gaps thus exist, the overall picture that emerges is one of a rapidly growing evidence base, which can inform innovative supply chain initiatives to reduce impacts. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural trade, Global value chains, Input-output analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, Sustainability |
| JEL: | Q17 Q27 Q51 Q56 Q37 |
| Date: | 2022–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:185-en&r= |
| By: | Emanuel Ornelas; John L. Turner |
| Abstract: | We study the welfare impact of rules of origin in free trade agreements where final-good producers source customized inputs from suppliers within the trading bloc. We employ a property-rights framework that features hold-up problems in suppliers’ decisions to invest, and where underinvestment is more severe for higher productivity firms. A rule of origin offers preferred market access for final goods if a sufficiently high fraction of inputs used in the production process is sourced within the trading bloc. Such a rule alters behavior for only a subset of suppliers, as some (very-high-productivity) suppliers comply with the rule in an unconstrained way and some (very-low-productivity) suppliers choose not to comply. For those suppliers it does affect, the rule increases investment, but it also induces excessive sourcing (for given investment) within the trading bloc. From a social standpoint, it is best to have a rule that affects high-productivity suppliers. The reason is that the marginal net welfare gain from tightening the rule increases with productivity. Therefore, when industry productivity is high, a strict rule of origin is socially desirable; in contrast, when industry productivity is low, no rule of origin is likely to help. Regardless of the case, a sufficiently strict rule can (weakly) ensure welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | hold-up problem, sourcing, incomplete contracts, regionalism |
| JEL: | F13 F15 L22 D23 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9920&r= |
| By: | Olivier Bargain (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Jean‐marie Cardebat (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Raphaël Chiappini (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | A nascent literature explores the impact of taste differences on trade. In gravity model estimations, the coefficient on geographic distance is large because it tends to capture such (usually unobservable) preference-related frictions. We examine this question in the context of French wine, that is, a cultural good characterized by a great variety of types (i.e. accommodating a large heterogeneity in wine tastes) and of quality levels (from cheap table wine to the finest grands crus). A series of gravity models are estimated using the universe of French bottled wine exports by detailed appellation between 1998 and 2015. We use genetic distance as a proxy for taste differences inherited from biology and culture. We show that this interpretation is not ruled out by other possible roles of genetic distance on trade (i.e., microgeography or nongustatory cultural dimensions such as trust). We find that genetic distance has an independent effect on trade, explaining between 20% and 40% of the coefficient on geographic distance. Dynamic estimates confirm this result and establish both the persistent and contemporaneous effects of genetic differences. A heterogeneous analysis also corroborates previous findings in the literature showing that high-tier goods tend to escape gravity. In addition, we find that premium wines escape the home bias associated with taste differences, possibly illustrating that luxury wines have become global iconic products purchased for status and investment motives rather than for gustatory pleasure. |
| Keywords: | cultural/genetic distance,geographic distance,gravity model,PPML,wine trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03773090&r= |
| By: | Jee-Hyeong Park; Jaeyoun Roh |
| Abstract: | With regard to the third-country effects on bilateral incentives to sign new preferential trade agreements (PTAs), we develop a theory-based empirical approach that enables the assessment of how a country¡¯s pre-existing PTAs affect her formation of a new PTA. Assessment of this effect is not trivial because a country¡¯s pre-existing PTAs are also the pre-existing PTAs of her potential PTA partner¡¯s partner, generating two counter-acting effects on the bilateral incentives to sign a new PTA. Our empirical analysis shows that a country¡¯s pre-existing PTAs generate a positive effect on her incentive to sign a new PTA (i.e., Own PTA effect) but they generate a negative effect on her new partner¡¯s incentive to sign a PTA (i.e., Partner¡¯s PTA effect), as our theory predicts. The analysis also reveals that members of a CU are less likely to sign a new PTA than non-CU member countries as the Partner¡¯s PTA effect is magnified by the CU¡¯s joint negotiation requirement for a new PTA. Based on our n-country model of PTA proliferation, we conduct some calibration exercises that yield a varying degree of predictive power. |
| Keywords: | Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); Pre-existing PTA effects; Proliferation of PTAs |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snu:ioerwp:no148&r= |
| By: | Ridwan Ah Sheikh (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Sunil Kanwar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using disaggregated industry level data for 1976-2019, we find, unlike much of the received literature, that patent rights have a strong positive effect on developing country knowledge-intensive imports. Using the new gravity model of Anderson-van Wincoop, there is strong evidence of a market expansion effect across knowledge-intensive industries. The overall elasticity of knowledge-intensive imports w.r.t patent rights is 0.28, with considerable variation across industries, being 0.55 for electronics, 0.44 for rubber manufactures, and 0.32 for pharmaceuticals. This increase in imports appears to be (mainly) driven by quantity increases, not just price increases. Our results survive multiple robustness checks. Key Words: Imports, Intellectual property rights, Gravity model, Multilateral resistance JEL Codes: F13, F14, O34 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:329&r= |
| By: | Hermann Ndoya (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of digital divide on income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 2004-2016. In applying a finite mixture model (FMM) to a sample of 35 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, this study posits that digital divide affects income inequality differently. Our findings show that the effect of digital divide on income inequality varies across two distinct groups of countries, which differ according to their level of globalization. In addition, the study shows that, most globalized countries are more inclined to be in the group where the effect of digital divide on income inequality is negative. The results are consistent to several robustness checks, including alternative measures of income inequality and additional control variables. The study complements that extant literature by assessing linkages between the digital divide, globalization and income inequality in sub-Saharan African countries contingent on cross-country heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Digital Divide, Income Inequality, Globalization, Finite Mixture model |
| JEL: | C14 O15 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/064&r= |
| By: | Lisa Marie Timm (University of Amsterdam); Massimo Giuliodori (University of Amsterdam); Paul Muller (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines to what extent an income tax exemption affects international mobility and wages of skilled immigrants. We study a preferential tax scheme for foreigners in the Netherlands, which introduced an income threshold for eligibility in 2012 and covers a large share of the migrant income distribution. By using detailed administrative data ina difference-in-differences setup, we find that the number of migrants in the income range closely above the threshold more than doubles, whereas there is little empirical support for a decrease of migration below the threshold. Our results indicate that these effects are driven mainly by additional migration, while wage bargaining responses are fairly limited. We conclude that the preferential tax scheme is highly effective in attracting more skilled migrants |
| Keywords: | international migration, income tax benefits, wage bargaining, bunching. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 H24 H31 |
| Date: | 2022–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220068&r= |
| By: | Tijan L. Bah; Catia Batista; Flore Gubert; David McKenzie |
| Abstract: | Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe across the Sahara and Mediterranean is extremely risky for migrants and a key policy concern. A cluster-randomized experiment with 3,641 young men from 391 settlements in The Gambia is used to test three approaches to reducing risky migration: providing better information and testimonials about the risks of the journey, facilitating migration to a safer destination by providing information and assistance for migration to Dakar, and offering vocational skill training to enhance domestic employment opportunities. Current migration to Senegal was increased by both the Dakar facilitation and vocational training treatments, partially crowding out internal migration. The vocational training treatment reduced intentions to migrate the backway and the number of steps taken toward moving. However, the backway migration rate from The Gambia collapsed, even in the control group, resulting in no space for a treatment effect on irregular migration from any of the three interventions. |
| Keywords: | Irregular migration, Migration deterrence, Information interventions, Vocational training, Cash transfer, Randomized experiment |
| JEL: | O15 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2203&r= |
| By: | Viktor Stojkoski; Philipp Koch; C\'esar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | To achieve inclusive green growth, countries need to consider a multiplicity of economic, social, and environmental factors. These are often captured by metrics of economic complexity derived from the geography of trade, thus missing key information on innovative activities. To bridge this gap, we combine trade data with data on patent applications and research publications to build models that significantly and robustly improve the ability of economic complexity metrics to explain international variations in inclusive green growth. We show that measures of complexity built on trade and patent data combine to explain future economic growth and income inequality and that countries that score high in all three metrics tend to exhibit lower emission intensities. These findings illustrate how the geography of trade, technology, and research combine to explain inclusive green growth. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2209.08382&r= |
| By: | Patrik Vanek (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the ambiguity of the methods of measuring firm-level multinationality. The focus is on identifying the main criteria for evaluating the quality of methods for measuring the multinationality of multinational enterprises (MNEs), as it is practical to map the discrepancies and differences. The evaluation is structured to highlight the advantages and limitations of methods proposed by other authors in the international business (IB) literature. The main finding is the recognition of seven key aspects in measuring firm-level multinationality defined as follows: (1) aggregation, (2) complexity, (3) indicators, (4) geography, (5) robustness, (6) country effects, and (7) flexibility. The proposed list can serve as grounds for selecting which methods to use for research, evaluation of the quality of proposed methods, and development of an entirely new method of measuring firm-level multinationality. The main contribution of this paper is its proposal of an optimal approach to each of the seven aspects. |
| Keywords: | MNE, multinationality classification, firm internationalisation, measurement |
| JEL: | F23 L25 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:83_2022&r= |
| By: | Fatima F. El Hadad-Gauthier (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes); Isabelle Piot-Lepetit (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Institut Convergences Agriculture Numérique #DigitAg - IRSTEA - Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture) |
| Abstract: | The rise of digitalisation is fueling a dynamics of reconfiguration of food value chains. This article explores two rising challenges: Logistics and traceability. These issues are crucial for food value chains because of the very specific characteristics of food products, such as perishability, shelf life constraints, quality variability, sanitary risks, market uncertainty, and the increasing distance between producer and consumer due to the markets' globalization. |
| Keywords: | traceability |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03773407&r= |
| By: | Hyejin Kim; Jongkwan Lee; Giovanni Peri |
| Abstract: | In this study, we first evaluate the effect of a significant increase in low-skilled immigration in Korean municipalities from 2010-2015 on the internal migration of natives. Using Korean survey data we are able to distinguish between natives moving for work-related and non-work-related reasons. Using a change in immigration policy and the pre-existing networks of immigrants to construct an instrument for immigration across Korean municipalities, we find that locations experiencing significant low-skilled immigration attracted natives who moved for working purposes. However, these locations saw outflows of natives that moved for non-work-related reasons, such as due to housing and local amenities. We then estimate that immigration had positive effects on local firm creation and on native wages but reduced the quality of local amenities. It had small to no impact on local housing prices. These facts together suggest that immigration attracted natives who value labor income over local amenities but pushed out those who place a higher value on local amenities. Thus, immigration, while generating little net native migration, changed the composition of natives in Korean municipalities. |
| JEL: | J21 J61 R12 R31 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30464&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Carnazza; Pierluigi Vellucci |
| Abstract: | European Monetary Union continues to be characterised by significant macroeconomic imbalances. Germany has shown increasing current account surpluses at the expense of the other member states (especially the European periphery). Since the creation of a single currency has implied the impossibility of implementing competitive devaluations, trade imbalances within a monetary union can be considered unfair behaviour. We have modelled Eurozone trade flows in goods through a weighted network from 1995 to 2019. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that applies this methodology to this kind of data. Network analysis has allowed us to estimate a series of important centrality measures. A polarisation phenomenon emerges in relation to the growth of German dominance. The common currency has then not been capable to remove trade asymmetry, increasing the distance between surplus and deficit countries. This situation should be addressed with expansionary policies on the demand side at national and supranational level. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2209.09837&r= |
| By: | Olatunji A. Shobande (University of Aberdeen, UK); Lawrence Ogbeifun (University of Mississippi, USA); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study explored whether globalisation and technology are harmful to health for a global panel dataset of 52 countries for the period of 1990–2019. The study focused on four continents: Africa, the Americas, Asia/Oceania, and Europe. We used four advanced econometric methodologies, which include the standard panel fixed effect (FE), Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond dynamic panel analysis, Hausman-Taylor specification, and Two-Stage Least Squares (FE-2SLS)/Lewbel-2SLS approach. Our empirical evidence highlights the significance of globalisation and technology in promoting global health. Our findings are not only of interest because it suggests that globalisation has varied impact on global health indicators, but they indicate that technology is useful in tracking, monitoring, and promoting global health. In addition, our empirical evidence indicates that a truly health-centered process of globalisation and technological innovation can only be realised by ensuring that the interests of countries and vulnerable populations to health risks are adequately considered in international decision-making regarding global economic integration. We suggest that achieving the aspiration of global health will entail the use of globalisation and information technology to extend human activities and provide equal access to global health. |
| Keywords: | globalisation; technology; global health |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:22/070&r= |
| By: | JaeBin Ahn; Jee-Hyeong Park |
| Abstract: | This note compares three different schemes to identify FDI types and documents that correlation among different classification schemes is extremely low. Empirical exercises in line with the proximity-concentration tradeoff hypothesis support the sales information based scheme. |
| Keywords: | FDI types; Horizontal FDI; Vertical FDI; Sales Information based Scheme; Industry Information based Scheme; |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snu:ioerwp:no149&r= |
| By: | Valerio Dotti (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of (1) population ageing and (2) rising income inequality on immigration policies using a citizen-candidate model of elections. In each period, young people work and pay taxes while old people receive social security payments. Immigrants are all young, meaning they contribute significantly to financing the cost of public services and social security. Among natives, the elderly and the poor benefit the most from public spending. However, because these two types of voters do not internalise the positive fiscal effects of immigration, they have a common interest in supporting candidates who seek to curb immigration and increase the tax burden on high-income individuals. Population ageing and rising income inequality increase the size and, in turn, the political power of such sociodemographic groups, resulting in more restrictive immigration policies, a larger public sector, higher tax rates, and lower societal well-being. Calibrating the model to UK data suggests that the magnitude of these effects is large. The implications of this model are shown to be consistent with patterns observed in UK attitudinal data. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Ageing, Policy, Voting |
| JEL: | D72 J61 J14 H55 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2022:14&r= |
| By: | Patrick Dylong; Silke Uebelmesser |
| Abstract: | We investigate the link between biased beliefs about immigrants, economic concerns and policy preferences. Conducting representative survey experiments with more than 8000 respondents, we first document substantial biases in respondents’ beliefs about the immigrant population in various domains. Exposure to different types of signals about immigrants reduces concerns about adverse effects of immigration on the welfare state. On the contrary, different types of signals offset their effects on concerns about increasing labor market competition. Employing a data-driven approach to uncover systematic effect heterogeneity, we find that prior beliefs about immigration explain conditional average treatment effects. While attitudinal change is thus more pronounced among individuals with pre-intervention biases about immigrants, education and attitudes towards cultural diversity are additional drivers of heterogeneity. Treatment effects on welfare state concerns persist in a five to eight week follow-up. |
| Keywords: | immigration attitudes, biased perceptions, belief updating, welfare state, labor market, causal forest |
| JEL: | C90 D83 F22 H20 J15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9918&r= |
| By: | Anna Lungarska (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thierry Brunelle (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Raja Chakir (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pierre-Alain Jayet (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Rémi Prudhomme (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane de Cara (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Christophe Bureau (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the effects of a public policy that reduces by 50% the use of mineral nitrogen in European agriculture. We use two techno-economic models to investigate the impacts on agricultural production, prices, and land use changes at the EU and global levels. Results show that halving synthetic fertilizer use leads to a decrease in agricultural production, a substantial increase in nitrogen use efficiency, and lower use of organic fertilizer. More importantly, we show that the results will critically depend on the potential for supply side adjustment, particularly, regarding the expansion of cropland area. |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous explorons les effets d'une politique publique qui réduit de 50% l'utilisation de l'azote minéral dans l'agriculture européenne. Nous utilisons deux modèles technico-économiques pour étudier les impacts sur la production agricole, les prix et les changements d'utilisation des terres aux niveaux européen et mondial. Les résultats montrent que la réduction de moitié de l'utilisation des engrais synthétiques entraîne une diminution de la production agricole, une augmentation substantielle de l'efficacité de l'utilisation de l'azote et une utilisation moindre des engrais organiques. Plus important encore, nous montrons que les résultats dépendront de manière critique du potentiel d'ajustement de l'offre, notamment en ce qui concerne l'expansion des terres cultivées. |
| Keywords: | agriculture,land use,nitrogen pollution,trade,environment.,Environment |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03761774&r= |
| By: | Andrei Dubovik (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Adam Elbourne (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Bram Hendriks (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis); Mark Kattenberg (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We compare machine learning techniques to a large Bayesian VAR for nowcasting and forecasting world merchandise trade. We focus on how the predictive performance of the machine learning models changes when they have access to a big dataset with 11,017 data series on key economic indicators. The machine learning techniques used include lasso, random forest and linear ensembles. We additionally compare the accuracy of the forecasts during and outside the Great Financial Crisis. We find no statistically significant differences in forecasting accuracy whether with respect to the technique, the dataset used - small or big - or the time period. |
| JEL: | F17 C53 C55 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:441&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Costa Ribeiro (CEDEPLAR/UFMG); Jorge Nogueira de Paiva Britto (UFF); Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (CEDEPLAR/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a structural change: the emergence of a Global Innovation System (GIS). Focusing on international knowledge flows (IKFs) we organize the network in three layers according to the type of IKF that connects the institutions: scientific collaboration, patent citation or article citation in patents. We investigate how those three layers overlap and entangle, figuring out a network of networks. We found that each layer follows a free-scale network structure associated with a self-organized system and creates an intrinsic hierarchy. The subnetwork that connects the three layers is also a free-scale network. The intertemporal analysis shows that those properties persist from 2009 to 2017.Therefore, we identified a complex network structure that is very unlike being created by a random process. This structure shows hierarchy, association with self-organized systems, robustness, and specialization, which are the fundamental aspects necessary to define a system. In the context of this analysis, that is the Global Innovation System. |
| Keywords: | International knowledge flows; Innovation systems; Networks of networks |
| JEL: | O32 O34 O39 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td645&r= |