nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒09‒26
24 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Introducing the effects of foreign direct investment into the GTAP-GAC model By Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer
  2. Bargaining for Trade: When Exporting Becomes Detrimental for Female Wages By Halvarsson, Daniel; Lark, Olga; Tingvall, Patrik; Videnord, Josefin
  3. Indirect Energy Costs and Comparative Advantage By Ron H. Chan; Edward Manderson; Fan Zhang
  4. Salmonella Program in the European Union and the Trade Dispute with Brazil at the World Trade Organisation: A Partial Equilibrium Framework By Mahdi Ghodsi
  5. Reforming International Investment Agreements: The Case of China and Foreign Direct Investment By Christian Bellak; Markus Leibrecht; Julien Chaisse
  6. The impact of foreign direct investment on financial development in Asian countries By Tran, Viet Nhu Anh; Huynh, Cong Minh
  7. The Small Open Economy in a Generalized Gravity Model By Svetlana Demidova; Takumi Naito; Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
  8. Foreign Competition, Skill Premium, and Product Quality: Impact of Chinese Competition on Mexican Plants By Banh, Thi Hang; Caselli, Mauro
  9. Working Conditions, Export Decisions, and Firm Constraints-Evidence from Vietnamese Small and Medium Enterprises By Phan, Trang Hoai
  10. A Macroeconomic Perspective on Taxing Multinational Enterprises By Sebastian Dyrda; Guangbin Hong; Joseph B Steinberg
  11. A Snapshot on the Characteristics and Dynamics of Austrian Exporting Firms By Bernhard Dachs; Robert Stehrer; Maria Yoveska
  12. Relaciones bilaterales comerciales y de inversión entre la República Dominicana y México By Cordero, Martha
  13. Functional Specialisation in EU Value Chains: Methods for Identifying EU Countries’ Roles in International Production Networks By Aleksandra Kordalska; Magdalena Olczyk; Roman Stöllinger; Zuzana Zavarská
  14. Temperatures, Firm Size and Exports in Developing Countries By Clément Nedoncelle; Julien Wolfersberger
  15. Does Political Partisanship Cross Borders? Evidence from International Capital Flows By Kempf, Elisabeth; Luo, Mancy; Schafer, Larissa; Tsoutsoura, Margarita
  16. Preparing a multi-country, sub-national CGE model: EuroTERM including Ukraine By Glyn Wittwer
  17. Innovation union:Costs and benefits of innovation policy coordination By Teodora Borota Milicevic; Fabrice Defever; Giammario Impullitti; Adam Hal Spencer
  18. Immigration, wages, and employment under informal labor markets By Delgado Prieto, Lukas Andres
  19. International Assortative Matching in the European Labor Market By Thomas Peeters; Jan C. van Ours
  20. Towards the measurement of electromobility in international trade. An interactive online dashboard By Ronzheimer, Ira Nadine; Durán Lima, José Elías; Budnevich, Cristóbal; Gomies, Matthew
  21. Shipping Prices and Import Price Inflation By Maggie Isaacson; Hannah Rubinton
  22. Pro-business arbitration with ISDS By Bernard Caillaud; Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky
  23. Economic Preferences and the Self-selection of Immigrants By Zhan, Crystal; Deole, Sumit
  24. Export Commodity Dependence and Vulnerability to Poverty By Tseday J. Mekasha; Kenneth Mdadila; Jehovaness Aikaeli; Finn Tarp

  1. By: Peter B. Dixon; Maureen T. Rimmer
    Abstract: Since 2018, we have built a series of GTAP models for Global Affairs Canada (GAC). Each of these models introduces modifications to the standard GTAP model. This paper describes GTAP-GAC3 in which we add an FDI extension. Our main focus is on the role of foreignaffiliate production as a substitute for imports and thereby a method for getting behind a tariff wall. GTAP-GAC3 could also be used for investigating scenarios in which FDI is motivated by productivity effects. Relative to other CGE models that incorporate FDI, GTAP-GAC3 has several advantages, including: year-on-year dynamics; realistic labour-market responses and high levels of commodity and country disaggregation. As explained in the paper, these advantages are achieved mainly by simplifications in demand-side specifications relative to those in other FDI-extended CGE models. By comparing GTAP-GAC3 tariff simulations conducted without and with the FDI extension, we show that FDI can have significant implications for simulation results.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, computable general equilibrium modelling, GTAP model
    JEL: C68 F21 F23
    Date: 2022–08
  2. By: Halvarsson, Daniel (The Ratio Institute); Lark, Olga (Department of Economics, Lund University); Tingvall, Patrik (The National Board of Trade Sweden, Södertörn University); Videnord, Josefin (Uppsala University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the link between globalization of firms and gender inequality. Specifically, we examine how the need for interpersonal contacts in trade and gender-specific differences in negotiations are related to the gender wage gap. Our key finding is that export of goods that are intensive in interpersonal contacts widens the gender wage gap. The effect is robust across various specifications and is most pronounced for domestic exporting firms, which do not trade within multinational corporations but with external foreign partners, where the contracting problem is most distinct. We ascribe this result to a male comparative advantage in bargainin
    Keywords: Export; Gender wage gap; Gender inequality; Contract intensity; Interpersonal contacts; International trade
    JEL: F16 F66 J16 J31
    Date: 2022–09–07
  3. By: Ron H. Chan; Edward Manderson; Fan Zhang
    Abstract: We investigate whether the costs of an input to production embodied in the supply chain can be a source of comparative advantage. Motivated by the fact that most industrial energy use takes place in the supply chain, we focus on the case of energy costs. Using a disaggregated dataset on trade flows in manufacturing industries around the world, we find that both direct and indirect energy costs passed on through intermediate goods have a significant effect on the pattern of international trade. We also show that industries in countries with high energy prices attempt to mitigate these effects by importing energy-intensive, intermediate goods from countries that have lower energy prices. We consider the economic significance of our results by calculating the effects of the energy price increases that occurred in the European Union in the mid-2000s onwards. We find that EU manufacturing exports decline anywhere from 6.8 percent to 15 percent, depending on the elasticity of input substitution. Our results demonstrate that there is a substantial difference in the estimated effect of energy prices on international trade when indirect energy costs are taken into account.
    Keywords: Energy prices; Intermediate goods; Comparative advantage; Exports
    JEL: Q5 Q4 F1 L2
    Date: 2022–09
  4. By: Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This contribution provides a cost-benefit analysis in a partial equilibrium framework to investigate the welfare consequences of a prohibitive regulatory non-tariff measure (NTM) in the form of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure aimed at a foreign product with perceived negative characteristics. Two groups of consumers are distinguished one that is indifferent to the foreign product’s negative attributes, and another that is concerned about them. Different scenarios concerning the welfare gains from the introduction of an NTM are explored. The results depend on consumer awareness and information policies pursued by the government of the importing country or group of countries. The theoretical model is illustrated with data on the production and importation of prepared poultry in the EU. This paper focusses on the recent Dispute Settlement (DS) case 607 at the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was initiated by Brazil in November 2021 to consult with the EU on restrictive measures imposed on the importation of prepared and preserved poultry. These restrictions are in line with the comprehensive and restrictive programme legislated by the EU to combat salmonella spp. The findings suggest that the consumer surplus may be reduced after the imposition of prohibitive SPS measures because the market structure changes from a duopoly to a monopoly. However, when the perceived harm of the bad product increases and the portion of the concerned population in society regarding the bad product increases, the change in the consumer surplus also increases.
    Keywords: welfare, trade policy, non-tariff measures, technical barriers to trade, dispute settlement
    JEL: D61 F13
    Date: 2022–09
  5. By: Christian Bellak (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Markus Leibrecht (Shanghai Ocean University); Julien Chaisse (City University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: The paper contributes to the debate on the effects of reforms of bilateral investment treaties on Foreign Direct Investment. So far studies show mixed empirical evidence as to the existence of positive effects on Foreign Direct Investment, pointing to rather small impacts. However, isolating the impact of a reform of bilateral investment treaties on Foreign Direct Investment is plagued by methodological issues as well as data restrictions. This paper adds to the literature as it mitigates some of these limitations by focusing on a particular reform-step in China’s international treaty policy, namely the substitution of a first-generation bilateral investment treaty with a much more “investor-friendly” third-generation bilateral investment treaty. Our basic findings, derived from a two-way fixed-effects framework, suggest that the more investor-friendly third-generation bilateral investment treaties indeed increase Foreign Direct Investment stocks in China. These findings are of policy relevance not only for capital importing countries, but also from the viewpoint of China’s increasing relevance as an outward investor in countries included in the Belt and Road initiative.
    Keywords: China, Foreign Direct Investment, Bilateral Investment Treaties, Reform
    JEL: D22 E52 D31 E23 E32
    Date: 2022–07
  6. By: Tran, Viet Nhu Anh; Huynh, Cong Minh
    Abstract: This paper empirically studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on financial development from 37 Asian nations covering the period 2001-2020 from a panel data set. The findings show that FDI has a positive impact on financial development, implying the spill-over effect of FDI in Asian financial markets. Furthermore, this study discovers that trade openness and population growth have a positive impact on financial development, while inflation affects financial development negatively. However, it is found that there is no relationship between government consumption and financial development in the Asian context.
    Keywords: Asian countries; Financial development; FDI; Panel data
    JEL: B22 F21 G20 O16 O53
    Date: 2022–08–24
  7. By: Svetlana Demidova; Takumi Naito; Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
    Abstract: To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the modern trade literature a SOE is defined instead as one that takes foreign-good prices and export demand schedules as given. In this paper we develop a generalized gravity model that nests all of its standard microfoundations (e.g., Armington and Melitz-Pareto) and show how to take the limit so that an economy that becomes infinitesimally small behaves like a SOE. We then show how the resulting model of a SOE can be used to understand comparative statics and the optimal tariff in a way that is robust across the different microfoundations consistent with the gravity model.
    JEL: F10
    Date: 2022–08
  8. By: Banh, Thi Hang; Caselli, Mauro
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of rising competition from Chinese exports on the skill premium of Mexican plants. Using detailed product-plant-level production data from Mexico and bilateral product-level trade data for 1994-2007, we provide evidence that Mexican plants reduce their skill premium in response to increasing competition from Chinese exports, and the effect is more pronounced among non-exporting plants. Thus, we develop a model linking competition and wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers by introducing these two types of labour to a model with heterogeneous firms and quality differentiation. Our model predicts that tougher competition leads plants to downgrade quality, which induces a decline in the wage difference between skilled and unskilled workers. We investigate this hypothesis empirically by analysing the effect of Chinese competition on the product quality of Mexican plants. Consistent with the fall in the skill premium, we document a downgrading impact of China's rise on Mexican plants' product quality and this quality downgrading is less intense for products sold in the foreign market. These findings provide empirical support for the predictions of our model.
    Keywords: product quality,Chinese competition,skill premium,Mexico,heterogeneous firms
    JEL: D21 D22 F12 F14
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Phan, Trang Hoai
    Abstract: Better working conditions promote employee creativity and loyalty. Meanwhile, a stable and skilled workforce contributes to a firm’s sustainable growth. Therefore, providing favorable working conditions is one of the critical sustainable goals of many countries worldwide. However, some critics are concerned participating in international trade causes worsening employment conditions in developing countries. Driven by these concerns, the relationship between exports and labor conditions is worth illuminating. This study adopts the data from Vietnam’s small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs). The dataset was collected by the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) and the University of Copenhagen, UNU-WIDER from 2011 to 2015. Unlike previous studies, this study clusters firms by export status, including four groups: non-exporting, consecutive exporting, start-exporting, and exit-exporting. Observing dynamic exports sheds light on the effects of export decisions more thoroughly than the static export. Another contribution, this study focuses on an essential aspect of working conditions: providing fringe benefits. Subsequently, the analysis is upgraded by controlling for firm constraints as interaction variables. A major constraint and financial constraint are adopted to proxy for a firm’s constraints. This work promotes assessments to be more accurate, thereby providing more valuable information to policymakers. Finally, a robustness test is applied to each type of fringe benefit. Instrumental variables are used to solve the problem of endogeneity. The results found that exporting firms provide better working conditions. Additionally, constrained firms have worse working conditions.
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Sebastian Dyrda; Guangbin Hong; Joseph B Steinberg
    Abstract: We develop a framework to study the macroeconomic implications of taxing multinational enterprises (MNEs) that shift profits to subsidiaries in low-tax jurisdictions by transferring ownership of non-rival intangible capital. We first prove analytically that profit shifting increases intangible investment, leading to higher profits and output at the MNE level. We then calibrate our model so that it reproduces salient country-level facts about production, trade, FDI, and, most importantly, profit shifting. We use our calibrated model to evaluate the consequences of two proposals by the OECD and G20 governments to reduce profit shifting by MNEs: allocating the rights to tax some of an MNE's profits to the countries in which it sells its products; and a 15% minimum global corporate income tax. We show that these policies would reduce profit shifting by more than two-thirds, but would also reduce intangible investment and output in high-tax regions. This highlights a key tension for policymakers: profit shifting erodes high-tax countries' tax bases, but also boosts economic activity, and thus policies that reduce profit shifting have harmful macroeconomic side effects.
    Keywords: Multinational enterprise; transfer pricing; profit shifting; base erosion; intangible capital; corporate tax
    JEL: E6 F23 H25 H27
    Date: 2022–09–01
  11. By: Bernhard Dachs; Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maria Yoveska
    Abstract: In view of the importance of the export economy for Austria this study examines the role and characteristics of Austrian exporting firms compared with non-exporting firms. Specifically, it assesses how the share of exporting firms has developed in recent years, whether exports have become more important for firms over time and to what extent exporters have an advantage over other firms (export premium). The results show that about two third of the Austrian manufacturing firms are engaged in exporting activities and indicate that – in line with existing literature - exporting firms are larger, more productive, generate higher surpluses, invest more, and spend more on environmental protection than non-exporters. Further, the results highlight that only a small number of firms account for a large share of Austrian manufacturing exports. Finally, the results point towards a mutual positive relationship between export behaviour, productivity, and R&D expenditures.
    Keywords: export premium, firm-level analysis, productivity and exporting
    JEL: D22 F14
    Date: 2022–09
  12. By: Cordero, Martha
    Abstract: Este trabajo responde a la petición del Gobierno de la República Dominicana, a través de su Embajada en México, de identificar oportunidades de comercio e inversión con México. Para elaborarlo se aplicó una metodología de análisis de competitividad ex post, adaptada a las peculiaridades de su comercio bilateral. En el primer capítulo de este documento se incluye un análisis de los perfiles comerciales globales de ambas economías. En el segundo capítulo se presenta un análisis de sus relaciones bilaterales, entre 2012 y 2021; en el tercer capítulo se muestran los principales resultados del ejercicio de competitividad aplicado y en el cuarto capítulo se abordan los flujos de inversión bilaterales. Finalmente, en las conclusiones del quinto capítulo se delinean algunas recomendaciones para incentivar el comercio y la inversión bilateral.
    Date: 2022–08–19
  13. By: Aleksandra Kordalska; Magdalena Olczyk; Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Geographically dispersed production networks have allowed countries to specialise in different functions of the value chain. By making use of two methodologies for quantifying the magnitude of functional specialisation – one based on trade flows and one based on FDI flows – detailed profiles of the functional specialisations of EU member states are identified. The analyses are conducted at the country, industry and regional level. In line with the existing literature, they reveal that EU-CEE countries are predominantly specialised in the fabrication stage, that is, they serve as ‘factory economies’, while the Western EU countries are mainly performing knowledge-intensive pre-fabrication activities – a characteristic of ‘headquarter economies’. This dualism within the EU is confirmed by a cluster analysis. While functional specialisation patterns tend to be persistent, especially in the fabrication stage, there are also some signs of functional diversification in EU-CEE countries in more recent years. Still, these functional changes remain limited to a few industries. The dichotomy of factory and headquarter economies is also clearly discernible at the regional level. However, the fact that in most EU countries – mainly in the capital regions – there are some headquarter-type regions implies that a complete functional ‘lock-in’ in fabrication is less likely than suggested by the country-level patterns. Hence, while the results point towards major difficulties of functional diversification beyond the fabrication stage in the EU-CEE countries and regions, there are also several promising elements and trends discernible, in particular at the industry and the regional level.
    Keywords: functional specialisation, global value chains, smile curve, factory economy, greenfield FDI
    JEL: F15 F21 F23 F60
    Date: 2022–08
  14. By: Clément Nedoncelle (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julien Wolfersberger (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Climate Economics Chair - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)
    Abstract: We study how temperature shocks affect exports in developing countries both at the firm-and aggregate-level. We find that while the average effect of temperature rise on exports is negative, small firms are disproportionately harmed compared with others. This feature is robust across subsamples, specifications and confounding factors. We show that this heterogeneity across firms has aggregate implications. In particular, we find that the overall trade deterring effect of temperatures would be significantly larger in absence of the largest exporters. We also show that firm structure matters for exports under future climate change scenarios, with large firms reducing the costs of predicted temperature rise. We conclude that the existing firm distribution in developing countries may increase the cost of climate change.
    Abstract: Nous étudions comment les chocs de température affectent les exportations dans les pays en développement à la fois au niveau des entreprises et au niveau global. Nous constatons que si l'effet moyen de la hausse des températures sur les exportations est négatif, les petites entreprises sont touchées de manière disproportionnée par rapport aux autres. Cette caractéristique est robuste à travers les sous-échantillons, les spécifications et les facteurs confondants. Nous montrons que cette hétérogénéité entre les entreprises a des implications globales. En particulier, nous constatons que l'effet dissuasif global des températures sur le commerce serait nettement plus important en l'absence des plus grands exportateurs. Nous montrons également que la structure des entreprises a une importance pour les exportations dans les scénarios de changement climatique futurs, les grandes entreprises réduisant les coûts de l'augmentation prévue des températures. Nous concluons que la distribution actuelle des entreprises dans les pays en développement peut augmenter le coût du changement climatique.
    Keywords: Climate change,Economic development,International trade,Firms Structure
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Kempf, Elisabeth; Luo, Mancy; Schafer, Larissa; Tsoutsoura, Margarita
    Abstract: Does partisan perception shape the flow of international capital? We provide evidence from two settings, syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds, to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by U.S. institutional investors. Our empirical strategy ensures direct economic effects of foreign elections or government ties between countries are not driving the result. Ideological alignment with foreign countries may also affect capital allocation of non-U.S. investors and can explain patterns in bilateral investment. Combined, our findings imply partisan perception is a global phenomenon and its economic effects transcend national borders.
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Glyn Wittwer
    Abstract: This paper describes the preparation of a database that identifies 74 industries in each of 328 regions in 40 countries, predominantly in Europe. The data are configured to support EuroTERM models of Europe at user chosen levels of industry and regional disaggregation. The TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) methodology has been applied to many countries over the past two decades to model sub-national regional impacts of policy scenarios. The methodology does not rely on sub-national regional input-output tables. Instead, estimates of regional activity shares are used to split a national CGE database into regions. Activity shares are based on industry by region employment numbers extracted from census data, regional agricultural and mining activity data and international trade data by port. EuroTERM provides an example of extending the TERM methodology. First, the GTAP master database is aggregated for non-European nations while keeping European nations plus Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (proxied by Rest of Eastern Europe), Belarus, Georgia, Albania, Iran, Turkey and North Africa represented separately. The database is reconfigured to 40 individual CGE databases. Using NUTS2 data and regional data for the oblasts of Ukraine, regional shares are estimated. Eurostats is the main source of these data. Regional shares provide the basis for splitting 24 European CGE databases to the NUTS-2 level and Ukraine to oblasts. The other nations in the database remain as single country regions. Industry cost structures or technologies are based on GTAP data for each nation. This approach differs from single-nation TERM, in which a single industry technology applies to each region. The methodology used to estimate inter-regional trades in TERM has been modified to accommodate matrices of known international trades from GTAP, while splitting origins and destinations into sub-national regions. Port activity data also contribute to estimation of subnational trade matrices. Electricity Global data on power plants by location have contributed to a split of electricity into 9 generating sectors plus distribution. The war in Ukraine has provided motivation for adding Ukraine, represented by 24 oblasts plus Kyiv city. The EuroTERM master database at present includes 74 sectors in 328 regions. A prototype 438 region GlobeTERM model, including virtually all regions in the GTAP master database, has also been developed as part of the project.
    Keywords: regional economics, Europe, global analysis
    JEL: C68 R10 R11 R15
    Date: 2022–08
  17. By: Teodora Borota Milicevic; Fabrice Defever; Giammario Impullitti; Adam Hal Spencer
    Abstract: We build a two-region endogenous growth model to analyse the gains from innovation policy cooperation in an economic union. The model is calibrated to two blocks of the EU: the old and new members. R&D subsidy coordination is motivated by the distortion from subsidy competition, the strategic motive, and by intertemporal knowledge spillovers, which drive growth. The ideas production function features decreasing returns, making growth semi-endogenous, where policy affects growth temporarily. We compute gains from harmonised subsidies, chosen in each region to maximise EU welfare, with respect to competitive and observed subsidies. First, we find substantial gains to coordination, which derive exclusively from the strategic motive. Second, extending to include endogenous idea flows via FDI gives knowledge spillovers as the main driver of coordination gains. Third, extending to fully endogenous growth gives similar results. Fourth, conclusions based on steady state analysis have misleading optimal subsidies and overstate the estimated gains.
    Keywords: Optimal innovation policy, growth theory, international policy coordination, EU integration, FDI spillovers.
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Delgado Prieto, Lukas Andres
    Abstract: This paper studies the labor market impacts of Venezuelan immigrants in Colombia. Exploiting spatial variation in exposure, I find a negative effect on native wages driven by the informal sector (where immigrants are concentrated) and a reduction in native employment in the formal sector (where the minimum wage binds for many workers). To explain this asymmetry, I build a model in which firms substitute formal for informal labor in response to lower informal wages. Consistent with the model's predictions, I document that the increase in informality is driven by small firms that use both labor types in production.
    Keywords: Immigration; Event Study; Labor Market; Informality
    JEL: F22 O15 O17 R23
    Date: 2022–09–09
  19. By: Thomas Peeters (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We investigate whether national borders within Europe hinder the assortative matching of workers to firms in a high skilled labor market. We characterize worker productivity as the ability to contribute to physical output and define firm productivity as the capacity to transform physical output into revenues. We rank workers and firms according to their individual productivity estimates and study the ensuing rank correlation to gauge the degree of assortative matching within and across countries. We find strong evidence for positive assortative matching at the national level, and even more so at the international level. This suggests national borders do not prevent workers and firm from pursuing profitable complementarities in production.
    Keywords: Assortative matching, international worker mobility, football managers
    JEL: M51 J63 J24 Z22
    Date: 2022–09–01
  20. By: Ronzheimer, Ira Nadine; Durán Lima, José Elías; Budnevich, Cristóbal; Gomies, Matthew
    Abstract: The dashboard presented here was developed in the framework of a collaboration project between ECLAC and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on electromobility in Latin America. The dashboard represents the visualization of a methodology proposed for analysing trade flows in electric bus components in Latin America and worldwide in order to evaluate the productive capacity of Latin American countries in this area. The required components have accordingly been disaggregated into three levels: processed and semi-processed components and raw materials. The dashboard captures the complexity of this methodology and makes it accessible to policymakers and entrepreneurs, who can use it to evaluate their country’s or business’s potential to participate in the value chain of electric buses.
    Date: 2022–07–14
  21. By: Maggie Isaacson; Hannah Rubinton
    Abstract: During the pandemic there have been unprecedented increases in the cost of shipping goods accompanied by delays and backlogs at the ports. At the same time, import price inflation has reached levels unseen since the early 1980s. This has led many to speculate that the two trends are linked. In this article, we use new data on the price of shipping goods between countries to analyze the extent to which increases in the price of shipping can account for the increase in U.S. import price inflation. We find that the pass-through of shipping costs is small. Nevertheless, because the rise in shipping prices has been so extreme, it can account for between 3.60 and 5.87 percentage points per year of the increase in import price inflation during the post-Pandemic period.
    Keywords: inflation; shipping; trade
    JEL: E31 F15
    Date: 2022–08–30
  22. By: Bernard Caillaud (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the Investor-State Dispute Resolution Settlement (ISDS) framework, which governs dispute resolution between foreign investors and host states in many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. We show that ISDS delivers fair justice in a one-shot setting. In a repeated-interaction setting however, it is prone to collusion to the benefit of all parties except the host states. Three factors are determinant: First, the investors are the sole parties able to file cases; Second, arbitrators' earning prospects depend on the investors' filing cases; And finally, treaties leave substantial discretion to arbitration courts in their interpretation of treaties' provisions. We give conditions for pro-business collusion between investors and arbitrators to develop and we show how it makes it profitable for foreign investors to file high-stake claims against states in response to new environmental, social or health regulations. Further, we address regulatory chill and show how the fear of ISDS attacks can hold back welfare improving regulation in the host country. Finally, we extend the model to show how regulatory chill affect policy-making in other countries in which the investor operates with similar activities.
    Date: 2022–08
  23. By: Zhan, Crystal; Deole, Sumit
    Abstract: Classical theories hypothesize individual economic preferences, including preferences toward risk, time, and trust, as determinants for migration intention. In the paper, we combine data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, European Social Survey, and World Values Survey to investigate how immigrants to Germany are self-selected from the origin population based on their preferences. We find a higher migration propensity among individuals who are more altruistic, patient, and trusting, conditional on age, gender, education, and a series of origin country's economic and political factors. However, individuals are positively selected on risk appetite in low-risk countries but adversely selected in high-risk countries. The degree of selectivity regarding preferences is also heterogeneous across demographics and origin-country characteristics.
    Keywords: self-selection,economic preferences,refugees,reasons for migration,origin country
    JEL: F22 J15 J6 O15 Z1
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Tseday J. Mekasha (University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics); Kenneth Mdadila (University of Dar es Salaam, School of Economics); Jehovaness Aikaeli (University of Dar es Salaam, School of Economics); Finn Tarp (University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the link between commodity dependence and vulnerability to poverty in rural Tanzania with a particular focus on coffee-growing households. Even if the vulnerability rate is quite high in rural Tanzania, our results show, on average, that coffee growers have a lower probability of being poor and vulnerable compared to non-growers. However, when coffee growers are disaggregated into small and large, we see that the result is mainly driven by large coffee growers. For small coffee growers, on the other hand, we do not find evidence to suggest that they are different from non-growers in terms of both poverty and vulnerability. When we disaggregate vulnerability into its components, poverty-induced vs risk-induced vulnerability, we find co ee growers to have a relatively higher probability of facing risk-induced vulnerability compared to non-growers. There are, however, heterogeneities in terms of the size of coffee growers. In particular, relative to non-growers, small coffee growers have a relatively higher probability of facing risk-induced vulnerability. On the other hand, conditional on being vulnerable, large coffee growers do not appear to have a statistically significant difference in their probability of facing a riskinduced vulnerability compared to non-coffee growers. These results indicate not only the need for vulnerability-reducing policies but also the importance of identifying the source of vulnerability as the choice of the right type of policy intervention depends on understanding the causes of vulnerability.
    Keywords: Commodity dependence, Poverty; Vulnerability; Tanzania
    JEL: I32 D31
    Date: 2022–04–22

This nep-int issue is ©2022 by Luca Salvatici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.