nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒07‒18
38 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Trade asymmetries: Research outputs from a model-based approach to reconciling asymmetries in UK trade in services data By Marilyn Thomas; Luke Weston
  2. Outward FDI and International Trade: the Study of Causal Effects By Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor; Igor Mikhailovich Drapkin
  3. Impacts of Globalization on the Adoption of Remote Work: Evidence from a survey in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic By TOMIURA Eiichi; ITO Banri
  4. Technical Barriers to Trade, Product Quality and Trade Margins: Firm-level evidence By DOAN Thi Thanh Ha; ZHANG Hongyong
  5. Language as a regional driver of the trade of place-sensitive products: The case of made-in-Italy goods By Amir Maghssudipour; Annalisa Caloffi; Marco Bellandi; Letizia Donati
  6. Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war By David Steinberg; Yeling Tan
  7. The Least Developed Countries' Services Waiver and the Stability of Least Developed Countries' Services Exports By Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
  8. Trade facilitation reforms worldwide: State of play in 2022 By Silvia Sorescu; Carolin Bollig
  9. An assessment of analytical options for estimating regional impacts of UK trade agreements on agriculture By Gobey, Will
  10. Effect of Trade Restrictive Provisions with Due-diligence on Bilateral Trade Flows: The case of the US regulation on conflict minerals By HIGASHIDA Keisaku; MURAKAMI Shinsuke; SHINKUMA Takayoshi
  11. Quality Innovation, Cost Innovation, Export, and Firm Productivity Evolution: Evidence from the Chinese Electronics Industry By Liu, Mengxiao; Wang, Luhang; Yi, Yimin
  12. Implications of the European Green Deal for agri-food trade with developing countries By Matthews, Alan
  13. Mastering the transition: A synthetic literature review of trade adaptation policies By Robert Grundke; Jens Matthias Arnold
  14. Tariffs, Agricultural Subsidies, and the 2020 US Presidential Election By Choi, Jaerim; Lim, Sunghun
  15. Global trade and investment megatrends By Hajkowicz, Stefan; Bratanova, Alexandra; Schleiger, Emma; Brosnan, A
  16. Covid-19 and international trade: Evidence from New Zealand By Nitsch, Volker
  17. The Real Effects of Invoicing Exports in Dollars By Antoine Berthou; Guillaume Horny; Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier
  18. Three essays on spatial frictions By Pierre Cotterlaz
  19. Reassessing the health impacts of trade and investment agreements: a systematic review of quantitative studies, 2016–20 By Barlow, Pepita; Sanap, Rujuta; Garde, Amandine; Winters, L. Alan; Mabhala, Mzwandile A.; Thow, Anne Marie
  20. Potential Impacts of the War in Ukraine on the Fourth District By Stephan Whitaker
  21. Migrant inventors as agents of technological change By Ernest Miguelez; Andrea Morrison
  22. Determinants and Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Austria: Spillovers to Novel Innovative Environmental Technologies By Mahdi Ghodsi; Branimir Jovanovic
  23. Costs and Benefits of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Chilean Local Labor Markets By Andrés César; Guillermo Falcone; Leonardo Gasparini
  24. Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting By Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
  25. The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021 By Josh De Lyon; Swati Dhingra
  26. When Europe Dances with the Dragon: Legal novelties and the policy implications of the China–EU investment agreement By Alisher UMIRDINOV
  27. Latin American trade in the age of climate change: impact, opportunities, and policy options By Lebdioui, Amir
  28. The Effect of Target-Country Institutions on Cross-Border Merger and Acquisition Activity : A Quantitative Literature Survey By Brada, Josef C.; Iwasaki, Ichiro
  29. Determinants of clove exports in Zanzibar: Implications for policy By Samwel J. Kabote; Jires Tunguhole
  30. Export Decision and Credit Constraints under Institution Obstacles By Phan, Trang Hoai; Stachuletz, Rainer; Nguyen, Hai Thi Hong
  31. Intended and Unintended Impacts of Minimum Wage Change: The Pivotal Role of Migration in the Philippines By Deborah Kim Sy; Nobuhiro Hosoe
  32. The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics? By Alberto Alesina; Marco Tabellini
  33. Foreign Firms Investment in Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation By Choi, Jangho; Rhee, Jung Kyun; Choi, Yoojeong; Lee, Dae-Eun
  34. The development of entrepreneurial orientation among female migrants and its influence on venture internationalization: a qualitative studybased on the French Context. By Eunice Cascant
  35. Policy Review/Policy Study/Policy Paper Preparation on Import Policy Order 2015-18 By Mai, Nhat Chi
  36. Enhancing a model of global beverage markets By Glyn Wittwer; Kym Anderson
  37. Global Supply Chain Sustainability: the Role of Non-governmental Enforcement Mechanisms By Michela Limardi; Francesca Battista
  38. The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis By Santiago Guerrero; Ben Henderson; Hugo Valin; Charlotte Janssens; Petr Havlik; Amanda Palazzo

  1. By: Marilyn Thomas; Luke Weston
    Abstract: This paper presents an approach to reconciling asymmetries in UK trade in services data based on methodology used by the OECD-WTO to produce a series of export and import 'symmetry indices' (a measure of the relative size of a country's asymmetries across a range of trading partners), and indicative ranges of reconciled values for UK total trade in services exports and imports with partner countries between 2014 and 2018. We present results for seven of the UK's trading partners in line with ONS asymmetries articles. UK export asymmetries are relatively small in a global context. Therefore, the indicative ranges of reconciled UK total trade in services exports to many of the UK’s trading partners are relatively close to official UK trade estimates. Where some of the UK's trading partners also have relatively small export asymmetries, indicative ranges of UK total trade in services exports are relatively close to the mid-point between the two country's estimates. UK import asymmetries are larger than UK export asymmetries. This means that the indicative ranges of UK total trade in services imports from many of the UK's trading partners tend towards the partner country's estimates.
    Keywords: asymmetries, services, trade
    JEL: C00 F10 F14
    Date: 2021–02
  2. By: Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor (Department of International Economics, School of Economics, Ural Federal University); Igor Mikhailovich Drapkin (Department of International Economics, School of Economics, Ural Federal University)
    Abstract: Numerous studies have examined whether the interrelationship between outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and international trade are complementary or substitutive. However, one major concern of policymakers is the possibility of OFDI precipitating de-industrialization and jobs losses of domestic economy. This study critically addresses these views by examining the interaction between OFDI and disaggregate international trade based on world bank country income classification which includes, the low income, lower-middle income, upper-middle income, and High income for a panel of 179 countries for the period of 2003 ? 2019. Based on dynamic panel data model for system-GMM, empirical findings show that OFDI has negative and significant effects on exports and imports of low-income countries, an indication of a substitutional relationship. Regarding the effects of exports on OFDI, and with exception of low-income countries, we found a positive and significant relationship for in all income cluster, an indication of a complementarity relationship. This shows that home country?s export is an important facilitator of OFDI. Overall, our empirical results support complementary effects on the dynamic interplay between OFDI and disaggregate international trade, suggesting a greater competitiveness in foreign markets as well as an increase in commercial integration.
    Keywords: Outward FDI, Trade, Export, Import, Income economies, Dynamic panel data
    JEL: F10 F21 F43
    Date: 2021–07
  3. By: TOMIURA Eiichi; ITO Banri
    Abstract: Global activities, such as international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), require firms not only to attain high productivity but also to skillfully manage distant communications across different institutions and cultural backgrounds. As an experience of cross-border coordination may facilitate the adoption of remote work, this paper examines whether a firm adopted remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic if the firm had experience in global activities before the pandemic. We combine our unique survey on the responses of Japanese firms to the COVID-19 pandemic with firm-level data derived from official statistics. Firms engaged in international trade or FDI before the pandemic tend to actively adopt remote work during the pandemic even after controlling for various firm characteristics. Even if we consider high productivity of globalized firms by utilizing the two-step estimation procedure, we find that this positive impact of globalization on remote work remains statistically significant. This suggests an important role of non-technological, possibly organizational, barriers to remote work.
    Date: 2022–06
  4. By: DOAN Thi Thanh Ha; ZHANG Hongyong
    Abstract: Utilizing matched firm-trade data, this study examines the effect of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) on trade margins and quality upgrading in Chinese manufacturing. We find that TBTs are associated with higher probability of exit. Surviving exporters enjoy larger sales and charge higher export prices. They upgrade product quality by expanding their research and development and importing more intermediate inputs and capital goods. The positive impact of TBTs on quality upgrading offsets that on price increases, resulting in lower quality-adjusted export prices. This suggests the net welfare-enhancing effect of TBTs for the consumers of imported products.
    Date: 2022–06
  5. By: Amir Maghssudipour; Annalisa Caloffi; Marco Bellandi; Letizia Donati
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between language and international trade of place-sensitive products at a regional level. Focusing on ‘made in Italy’, we assess whether its trade is influenced by Italian migrants and organisations offering Italian language courses in the importing region. To analyse this relationship, we collected an original database of 147 regions, on which we estimated Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood regressions, also controlling for various country effects across trading regions. Results show that the trade of made-in-Italy goods is positively associated with the diffusion of the Italian language in the regions. This does not apply to goods produced in Italy that are not characteristic of ‘made in Italy’.
    Keywords: international trade, place-sensitive products, made in Italy, Italian migration, Italian language
    JEL: F14 R10 R23
    Date: 2022
  6. By: David Steinberg (Johns Hopkins University); Yeling Tan (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: America's recent turn toward protectionism has raised concerns about the future viability of the liberal international trading system. This study examines how and why public attitudes toward international trade change when one's country is targeted by protectionist measures from abroad. To address this question, the authors fielded three original survey experiments in the country most affected by US protectionism: China. First, they find consistent evidence that US protectionism reduces Chinese citizens' support for trade. This finding is replicated in parallel experiments on technology cooperation, and further validated outside of the China context with a survey experiment in Argentina. Second, they show that responses to US protectionism reflect both a "direct reciprocity" logic—citizens want to retaliate against the United States specifically—and a "generalized reciprocity" logic that reduces support for trade on a broader, systemic basis.
    Keywords: International Trade; International Political Economy; China; Public Opinion
    JEL: F13 F42 F50 F68
    Date: 2022–06
  7. By: Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm
    Abstract: The least developed countries (LDCs) are weakly integrated into the global trading system. To foster their participation in international trade in services, the Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adopted in 2011 a Decision ("LDC Services Waiver") that allows any WTO Member to offer preferential treatment to LDC services and service suppliers. This Decision became operational only from 2014, and is valid until 2030, or before 2030 for beneficiaries that lose the LDC status. The present analysis investigates whether the LDC Services Waiver Decision has been instrumental in dampening the volatility of LDCs' commercial services exports. We submit the theoretical hypothesis that by providing certainty to the access of trading partners' markets, and hence improving the predictability of such market access for LDCs' trading firms, the LDC Services Waiver could contribute to dampening the volatility of LDCs' commercial services exports. The analysis uses the difference-in-difference approach where the treatment group contains 38 LDCs and the control group contains 22 Low-income countries that are not eligible for the benefits of this Waiver. It covers the period from 2004 to 2019, with the treatment period (i.e., the period of operationalization of the LDC Services Waiver) running from 2014 to 2019. Based on within fixed effects and random-effects Mundlak estimators, the empirical exercise has provided support to the hypothesis that the LDC Services Waiver has been instrumental in dampening the volatility of total commercial services exports, and in particular the volatility of modern commercial services. Thus, meaningful preferences to LDCs, under the Services Waiver, would provide significant benefits to LDCs, including in terms of stability of services exports.
    Keywords: Least developed countries' Services Waiver,Volatility of commercial services exports,World Trade Organization
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Silvia Sorescu; Carolin Bollig
    Abstract: Trade facilitation measures are key in offsetting some of the time and cost increases experienced by firms and consumers against a backdrop of continued supply chain disruptions. Through the lens of the updated OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators (TFIs), this paper assesses progress and challenges in trade facilitation reforms, including as these relate to the implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement. Since 2019, most progress occurred in improving the availability of trade-related information, simplifying documentary requirements, and automating and streamlining procedures. The TFIs also show significant gaps between the establishment of regulatory frameworks for trade facilitation and operational practices across all areas covered. Confirming digital trade facilitation measures introduced during the COVID-19 crisis can help close these gaps. There is also scope to build on COVID-19 border agency co-operation structures, and international co-operation more broadly, to enhance crisis responsiveness and resilience.
    Keywords: Customs, Digitilisation, Simplification, Transparency, WTO
    JEL: F13 F14 F63 F68
    Date: 2022–07–05
  9. By: Gobey, Will
    Abstract: The UK is in the process of signing a raft of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), with potentially large ramifications for domestic agricultural sectors. In Defra, we use a variety of trade models to establish the costs and benefits of such policies on UK consumers and agri-food producers. However, all our trade models aggregate impacts to the UK level. Given we expect production impacts in particular to be regionally concentrated, this is a significant limitation to understanding the overall impact of these FTAs. A variety of approaches could be adopted to estimate these impacts, from the more rudimentary to the more resource intensive. The costs and benefits of these approaches will be discussed. A recommended approach is set out. We examine the appropriateness of this at both a country level – England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland – and at a more detailed regional level. This approach is then tested on an example Free Trade Agreement, the UK’s recent FTA with Australia.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics
    Date: 2022–04
  10. By: HIGASHIDA Keisaku; MURAKAMI Shinsuke; SHINKUMA Takayoshi
    Abstract: The US Congress passed the Dodd--Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in 2010. It includes the provision (section 1502) of a due diligence requirement: publicly listed firms in the US Securities and Exchange Commission must check their supply chains for tantalum, tin, tungsten, and gold originating from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) or neighboring countries thereof and must check if they are free from conflicts in the target region. Focusing on tantalum and tungsten, this study empirically examines (i) the effect of the act on trade flows from the target countries to the US, and (ii) the trade diversion effects in terms of both production (export) and consumption (import) sides. We also clarify whether the act weakens the relationship between international transactions and conflicts, by using the data provided by the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, on the number of georeferenced deaths caused by such conflicts. We find that the export from the target countries to the US and OECD countries decreased after the act was enforced, whereas the trade diversion effects rose. Although the act weakened the relationship between trade values and conflicts, there is a possibility that corruption in the trade of these resources increased.
    Date: 2022–06
  11. By: Liu, Mengxiao; Wang, Luhang; Yi, Yimin
    Abstract: This paper classifies innovation as quality-improving or cost-reducing and estimates a dynamic model incorporating firm export, quality innovation, and cost innovation decisions. Estimation results show that export, quality innovation, and cost innovation increase next-period firm productivity by 1.39%, 1.23%, and 1.27%, respectively. Additionally, quality innovation raises next-period export demand by 47%. Counterfactual analyses suggest that (1) foreign market growth has a larger impact on firm export and innovation decisions than domestic market growth, but neither market significantly affects firm productivity; (2) subsidizing continuing quality innovators generates the highest financial return, and subsidizing continuing cost innovators brings the most productivity gain.
    Keywords: export; quality innovation; cost innovation; firm productivity; dynamic estimation; neural network; machine learning; trade liberalization; innovation policy
    JEL: C45 F14 L1 L10 L25
    Date: 2022–07
  12. By: Matthews, Alan
    Abstract: The European Green Deal has the ambition to bring about a more sustainable food system. Trade policy is required to be coherent with and supportive of the objectives of the Green Deal. Various legislative and other initiatives have been introduced or proposed to use trade policy measures to support the move to higher sustainability standards in the food system both in the EU and globally. Mandatory due diligence requirements for companies are proposed to ensure they have ‘clean’ supply chains. Mirror clauses have been proposed in agri-food trade to require that imported products meet similar regulatory standards as EU producers. Promoting this agenda is a priority of the French EU Presidency in the first half of 2022. Higher sustainability standards and accompanying trade measures will have a significant impact on the competitiveness of EU producers as well as international trade in food. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of this debate, with a particular focus on vulnerable developing countries for which the EU is an important market.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–04
  13. By: Robert Grundke; Jens Matthias Arnold
    Abstract: International trade has supported economic convergence and poverty reductions in many emerging market economies. Nonetheless, there are significant challenges during the transition towards a more open economy. Reallocations of resources and structural change are one key source of aggregate productivity improvements, but they will come with adjustment costs. Less competitive firms and sectors may decline, while more competitive sectors will have to adapt and seize new opportunities from trade and global value chains. Some workers will move to more productive firms, change occupations, sectors or even location. Non-trade policies can help to smooth these challenges and support workers seize new opportunities. This paper reviews the existing literature on how policy reforms have managed to support structural change of economies.
    Keywords: international trade, professional training, skills, trade adjustment policies
    JEL: F16 F66 F68 I28
    Date: 2022–06–23
  14. By: Choi, Jaerim; Lim, Sunghun
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the effects of US and Chinese trade policies on the 2020 US presidential election. In response to a series of US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, China imposed retaliatory tariffs, especially on US agricultural products, which largely affected Republican-leaning counties. The US government then subsidized US farmers by providing direct payments through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) to mitigate the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Using the universe of actual county-level MFP disbursement data, we first document that US agricultural subsidies relative to the Chinese retaliatory tariff exposure were especially higher in solidly Republican counties, implying that Trump allocated rents in exchange for political patronage. Then, we find that US agricultural subsidies outweighed Chinese retaliatory tariffs and led to an increase in the Republican vote share in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we uncover evidence that China’s retaliatory trade policy and US agricultural policy exacerbated political polarization in the US, especially the rural-urban divide.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Public Economics
    Date: 2022–04
  15. By: Hajkowicz, Stefan; Bratanova, Alexandra; Schleiger, Emma; Brosnan, A
    Abstract: The purpose of this report is to help secure Australia’s future and catalyse new trade and investment by identifying global megatrends emerging in the post-COVID-19 world. This report presents the results of a CSIRO and Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade) strategic foresight study exploring changes in the global trade and investment landscape likely to occur over the coming months and years. The report also presents a set of strategic actions for Australian governments and industries to capitalise on significant shifts in the global trade and investment landscape. Trade and investment strategies responding to the new normal of the mid/post-COVID-19 world will boost jobs and growth plus speed up Australia’s economic recovery.
    Keywords: Trade; investment; international economics; Australia; COVID
    JEL: F1 F13 F17 F53 O24 O33 O38
    Date: 2020–10
  16. By: Nitsch, Volker
    Abstract: The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international trade varies along several dimensions, including the type of product, the size of firm and over time. In this note, I provide evidence of systematic variation in the trade response to the pandemic along another, previously unexplored dimension, the mode of transportation. Analyzing daily data from New Zealand, I find that the value of seaborne exports and imports increases relative to shipments by air during pandemic lockdowns. While this finding is consistent with many explanations, including the sensitivity of trade to external finance, it generally provides support for the importance of frictions on the supply side.
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Antoine Berthou (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Guillaume Horny (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)
    Abstract: Exporting firms face foreign exchange risk when the export contract is invoiced in a foreign currency. For instance, for firms located outside of the United States, the US dollar is often used as a vehicle currency. The cost of hedging against this risk represents an additional trade cost for exporters, which is specific to the targeted destination. In this paper, we exploit an episode of heightened tensions in the USD/EUR foreign exchange market in July 2011, which increased the cost of hedging against US dollar fluctuations for French exporters. Using disaggregated information on bank balance sheets, bank-firm relationships and individual export flows for France, we show that exporters with a higher propensity to use hedging instruments reduced more their exports to "US dollar destinations" after this shock. For the average "treated" individual export flow in our sample, the increased hedging cost is equivalent to a counterfactual rise in trade costs by about 3 percentage points.
    Keywords: Dollar invoicing,Trade finance,Firm-level exports
    Date: 2022–03
  18. By: Pierre Cotterlaz (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Spatial frictions are key to explain many economic phenomena. This thesis provides three pieces of evidence on the origins, prevalence and consequences of such frictions.In the first chapter, we focus on spatial frictions in the diffusion of knowledge. We explain the puzzling persistence and stability of the spatial decay in patent citation flows by innovator networks. We establish that knowledge percolates: firms disproportionately cite new patents from prior contacts, and form links with contacts of their contacts. Embedding this percolation into a network formation model is sufficient to rationalize the negative link between aggregate knowledge flows and distance.In the second chapter, we shed some light on the role of spatial information frictions in shaping international trade flows. We use the specific context of the XIXth Century, during which the creation of international news agencies facilitated the transmission of information across countries. We show that trade between a pair of countries increases when both are covered by a news agency. The reduction in information friction was therefore one of the many factors behind the First Globalization.The last chapter investigates whether transport costs are the main component of within-country trade costs. While it is well-established that international trade costs are not limited to transport costs, evidence is much scarcer for intra-national trade flows. We use hurricane Sandy as a natural experiment shifting upwards transport costs in some areas of the US to establish that if transport costs were the sole driver of the distance elasticity of trade flows within the US, this distance elasticity would be much lower.
    Abstract: Les frictions spatiales jouent un rôle crucial dans l'explication de nombreux phénomènes économiques. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les origines, la prévalence et les conséquences de telles frictions à travers trois exemples. Dans le premier chapitre, nous nous intéressons aux frictions spatiales pesant sur la diffusion de la connaissance. Nous expliquons l'effet négatif de la distance sur les flux de citations entre brevets par la structure des réseaux d'innovation. Nous montrons que la connaissance percole: les entreprises tendent à citer davantage les nouveaux brevets de leurs contacts existants, et à former de nouveaux liens avec des contacts de leurs contacts. Dans le second chapitre, nous explorons les liens entre frictions informationnelles et commerce international. Nous utilisons le contexte spécifique du XIXe siècle, au cours duquel émergent des agences de presse mondiales, facilitant le partage d'informations sur les marchés étrangers. Nous montrons que deux pays commercent davantage une fois qu'ils bénéficient de ce choc positif sur la capacité à obtenir de l'information. Les agences de presse s'insèrent donc parmi les nombreux facteurs explicatifs de la Première Mondialisation. Le dernier chapitre cherche à déterminer si les coûts de transport constituent l'essentiel des obstacles au commerce à l'intérieur d'un pays. Nous utilisons l'ouragan Sandy comme une expérience naturelle à l'origine d'une hausse des coûts de transport pour les flux transitant par certaines zones, et montrons que l'élasticité intra-USA des flux commerciaux à la distance serait bien plus faible si les coûts de transport étaient les seuls responsables de cette élasticité.
    Keywords: Trade costs,Innovation,Networks,News agencies,Coûts du commerce,Réseaux,Agences de presse
    Date: 2021–06–03
  19. By: Barlow, Pepita; Sanap, Rujuta; Garde, Amandine; Winters, L. Alan; Mabhala, Mzwandile A.; Thow, Anne Marie
    Abstract: To ensure a high level of health protection, governments must ensure that health and trade policy objectives are aligned. We conducted a systematic review of the health impacts of trade policies, including trade and investment agreements (TIAs), to provide a timely overview of this field. We systematically reviewed studies evaluating the health impacts of trade policies published between Jan 19, 2016, and July 10, 2020. Included studies were quantitative studies evaluating the impact of TIAs and trade policies on health determinants or outcomes. We evaluated methodological quality and performed a narrative synthesis. 21 of 28 067 articles identified via searches met our criteria. Methodologically strong studies found reduced child mortality, deteriorating worker health, rising supplies of sugar, ultra-processed food, tobacco, and alcohol supplies, and increased drug overdoses following trade reforms, compared with the time periods before trade reform. However, associations varied substantially across contexts and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings show that trade policies, including TIAs, have diverse effects on health and health determinants. These effects vary substantially across contexts and socioeconomic groups. Governments seeking to adopt healthy trade policies should consider these updated findings to ensure that opportunities for health improvement are leveraged and widely shared, while harms are avoided, especially among vulnerable groups.
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2022–05–01
  20. By: Stephan Whitaker
    Abstract: This District Data Brief examines the trade connections between Ukraine and Russia and the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. It appears that supplies to the District will be substantially reduced for several items that Ukraine and Russia export, such as primary metals and fertilizer. We should expect prices to rise for these goods, as they have already for petroleum. However, there are generally alternate global suppliers for many of the goods sold by Ukraine and Russia, so Fourth District firms will probably not be forced to halt production because of lack of materials.
    Keywords: imports; supply; global exports; trading partners
    Date: 2022–06–23
  21. By: Ernest Miguelez (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Andrea Morrison
    Abstract: How do regions enter new and distant technological fields? Who is triggering this process? This work addresses these compelling research questions by investigating the role of migrant inventors in the process of technological diversification. Immigrant inventors can indeed act as carriers of knowledge across borders and influence the direction of technological change. We test these latter propositions by using an original dataset of immigrant inventors in the context of European regions during the period 2003–201. Our findings show that: immigrant inventors generate positive local knowledge spillovers; they help their host regions to develop new technological specialisations; they trigger a process of unrelated diversification. Their contribution comes via two main mechanisms: immigrant inventors use their own personal knowledge (knowledge creation); they import knowledge from their home country to the host region (knowledge transfer). Their impact is maximised when their knowledge is not recombined with the local one (in mixed teams of inventors), but it is reused (in teams made by only migrant inventors). Our work contributes to the existing literature of regional diversification by providing fresh evidence of unrelated diversification for European regions and by identifying important agents of structural change. It also contributes to the literature of migration and innovation by adding fresh evidence on European regions and by unveiling some of the mechanisms of immigrants' knowledge transmission.
    Keywords: Patents,Migration,Technological diversification,Relatedness,Europe
    Date: 2022–05
  22. By: Mahdi Ghodsi; Branimir Jovanovic
    Abstract: This study investigates the determinants of FDI in Austria, as well as their spillovers to innovating technologies, productivity, and employment, using firm-level data, for the period 2008-2018. The findings point out that a decrease in the costs of trade increases investment in foreign-owned subsidiaries in Austria, and that FDI is pre-dominantly carried out in industries characterised by greater capital-intensity, higher wages, more agglomeration and regional concentration. Furthermore, FDI is higher in regions with a larger GDP and with a larger share of the population with upper secondary and post-secondary nontertiary education. The study also finds that there are positive spillovers of FDI to the domestic economy, which are strongest and most positive for innovative activities in environmental technologies. In other words, FDI helps Austrian firms to become more innovative in major environmental technologies. Such innovative efforts are best supported at the firm-level by supporting the total assets and investment of domestic firms, and at the regional level by increasing the share of the population with higher levels of education and employing more R&D personnel. The active presence of innovative foreign MNEs that enjoy extensive technological capacities, high-skilled labour, experienced management, and large-scale resources are also conducive to innovative activities.
    Keywords: FDI, Austria, spillovers, innovation, environmental technologies
    JEL: F21 F23 O30 Q55
    Date: 2022–06
  23. By: Andrés César (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET)
    Abstract: We study Chile’s labor market responses to trade shocks during 1996-2006, exploiting spatial and time variations in trade exposure arising from initial differences in industry specialization across local labor markets and the evolution of shocks across industries. We take advantage of China’s supply and demand’s worldwide shocks to instrument for Chinese import competition and demand for Chilean exports. Our main finding is that increasing manufacturing import competition implied a significant rise in labor informality in more exposed local markets, especially among young and unskilled workers. These groups also suffered significant relative wage losses. Meanwhile, locations that benefited most from the increased demand for primary products experienced a relative increase in employment, particularly among young individuals, and reallocation from self-employment towards salaried jobs in the formal sector, along with relative wage gains among old-age workers. Interestingly, these areas experienced a smaller increase in tertiary education enrollment rates than less exposed areas.
    JEL: F14 F16 J23 J31 L60 O17 Q02 R12 R23
    Date: 2022–07
  24. By: Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
    Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.
    JEL: F1 F16 J1 J13
    Date: 2022–06
  25. By: Josh De Lyon; Swati Dhingra
    Abstract: We use real-time firm survey data to describe trends in the UK economy in early 2021. As of April 2021, business activity and expectations for the future have improved. However, real wage growth is down and firms are reporting that average input costs have increased. Firms are reporting that Brexit has affected their operations, leading to a fall in exports to the EU for a quarter of exporters and a fall in imports from the EU for a third of importers. Increased border costs are the most cited Brexit-related issue. We discuss how policies can support workers and firms in adapting to the structural changes from Covid-19 and Brexit.
    Keywords: Covid-19
    Date: 2021–05–06
  26. By: Alisher UMIRDINOV
    Abstract: The main goal of this paper is to analyze the novelties and limitations of the European Union (EU)–China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) and examine its policy implications for investment rulemaking in the Asia-Pacific region. As rightly put by the EU side, the CAI is the most ambitious investment liberalization agreement that China has ever concluded with a third party. The CAI aims to improve market access to China’s manufacturing and services sectors, introduces a definition of state-owned enterprise that is even broader than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), tightens subsidy regulations, ensures equal participation in standard-setting, prohibits compulsory technology transfers, and requires transparency in the operation of competition law. That being the case, the paper argues that by subjecting China to these groundbreaking obligations, the CAI could be a litmus test for China’s bid for membership in the CPTPP. From the perspective of sustainable development, China committed to making sustained efforts to ratify the fundamental Conventions of the International Labour Organization (ILO). In this regard, effective implementation and ratification of ILO Conventions may show whether China is honest in making labor protection commitments in the wake of its membership bid to the CPTPP. Finally, the CAI does not cover investor–state dispute settlement since the parties decided to continue negotiations on investment protection on a separate track while aiming to complete negotiations within 2 years of the signature of the CAI. If China supports it, then a Multilateral Investment Court based on the approach developed by the EU may increase its influence globally. Although the ratification of the CAI has been frozen indefinitely due to bilateral sanctions, it is still too early to be certain that the CAI has been completely shelved.
    Date: 2022–06
  27. By: Lebdioui, Amir
    Abstract: The economic future of Latin America and the Caribbean is intrinsically linked to climate change. In the context of a 21st century that will be marked by climate change and the global fight against it, the status quo is unlikely to help Latin American economies leap forward economically, which calls for a major rethinking of trade and investment strategies in the region. A Latin American Green Deal, based on regional coordination to exploit existing synergies and economies of scale, could be the way forward. Across the region there is growing evidence of climate change - precipitation patterns are shifting, temperatures are rising, and some areas are experiencing changes in the frequency and severity of weather extremes such as floods and droughts. By 2050, it is estimated that climate change damage could cost USD 100 billion annually to the region. The impact of climate change, which will be more devastating in Latin America than in most parts of the world, also influences the region’s ability to trade and its long-term export prospects. The increasing frequency of extreme meteorological events has already led to devastating effects on production, tourism, and trade infrastructure, while expected fluctuations in precipitation and temperature also threaten the long-term productivity of several agricultural outputs, which many countries in the region depend on as a source of exports.
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2022–05–01
  28. By: Brada, Josef C.; Iwasaki, Ichiro
    Abstract: In this paper, we synthesize and compare 2,961 estimates extracted from 90 papers of the effect of target-country institutions on cross-border merger and acquisition (CBMA) intensity and premia. The synthesis results show statistically significant effects of institutional quality, cultural similarity, corruption control and political stability and effectiveness on CBMA activity, although the economic significance of these effects is modest. Study characteristics such as the choice of target and acquiring countries, estimation techniques and sample selection strongly influence the effect estimates. Moreover, we examine the literature for the possible influence of publication-selection bias on the estimated effects and conclude that the presence of such bias calls into question whether the literature reports true effects of institutions on CBMA activity. The results presented in our quantitative literature review suggest further research efforts to identify the true effect size.
    Keywords: cross-border merger and acquisition, institutions, foreign entry mode, metasynthesis, meta-regression analysis, publication selection bias
    Date: 2022–06
  29. By: Samwel J. Kabote; Jires Tunguhole
    Abstract: This paper analyses factors for the declining trend in clove exports in Zanzibar using time series data that were collected between 1980 and 2020 and analysed using the vector error correction model, complemented with qualitative analysis. Clove production, producer price, world price, gross domestic product, and the exchange rate showed positive statistically significant impacts in the long run at the one per cent level, while foreign direct investment, population growth rate, rainfall, and gross capital formation showed significant negative association. Inflation had no impact.
    Keywords: Exports, Vector error correction, Zanzibar
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Phan, Trang Hoai; Stachuletz, Rainer; Nguyen, Hai Thi Hong
    Abstract: The growing demand for goods and technology increases capital requirements, especially in exporting enterprises. However, many firms have difficulty accessing external capital due to institutional obstacles. This study analyzes two main issues: the influence of institutional obstacles on credit constraints and the relationship between credit constraints and export decisions, adopting firm-level data from 131 countries. The study’s remarkable contribution is to cluster the data into four country groups based on their national income. The typical specification of each group can lead to more precise results, thereby highlighting the role of institutions. More advanced, this study complements the literature’s gap in the relationship between credit constraints and exports by controlling for institutions as interactive variables in the model. This work upgrades assessments to be more accurate, thereby providing more valuable information to policymakers. In addition, credit constraints are measured by both quantitative and qualitative methods. The essential role of firm size is emphasized in further analysis. This study approaches the Probit method. Furthermore, an instrumental variable is used to solve the endogeneity problem. The results found that a weak institution prevents access to finance, especially in middle-income countries. In addition, firms’ access to capital negatively affects exports in all regions. The finding in the group of rich countries is most pronounced.
    Date: 2022
  31. By: Deborah Kim Sy (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Nobuhiro Hosoe (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: Minimum wage is used as a support for low-wage workers, but it is expected to increase unemployment and cause deterioration of the welfare of the unemployed. While earlier studies identify negative side effects of minimum wage, that may not be the case in the Philippines, where many workers migrate and send home large remittances. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to examine the impacts of an increase in the domestic minimum wage on unemployment, migration, and output, as well as on welfare and inequality, in the Philippines. Our simulation results show that a minimum wage increase would indeed reduce domestic labor demand and prompt many unemployed workers to migrate out, leaving relatively few unemployed at home. While an increased volume of remittances would improve household welfare, it would also have some unintended effects, such as currency appreciation; decreased domestic production in labor-intensive and export-oriented industries; greater income disparity; and tax base erosion.
    Keywords: Minimum wage, International Migration, Remittances, Income Inequality
    Date: 2022–06
  32. By: Alberto Alesina; Marco Tabellini
    Abstract: We review the growing literature on the political economy of immigration. First, we discuss the effects of immigration on a wide range of political and social outcomes. The existing evidence suggests that immigrants often, but not always, trigger backlash, increasing support for anti-immigrant parties and lowering preferences for redistribution and diversity among natives. Next, we unpack the channels behind the political effects of immigration, distinguishing between economic and non-economic forces. In examining the mechanisms, we highlight important mediating factors, such as misperceptions, the media, and the conditions under which inter-group contact occurs. We also outline promising avenues for future research.
    JEL: D72 J15 J61 Z1
    Date: 2022–05
    Abstract: This paper examines various channels and issues for foreign firms to invest in inter-Korean economic cooperation with the as-sumption that inter-Korean economic cooper-ation can be resumed after sanctions against North Korea have been lifted, and the same treatment is applied to foreign firms. Foreign firms' investment in inter-Korean economic cooperation will provide a new op-portunity for foreign firms to earn stable profits, while also playing a role in further solidifying the establishment of peace on the Korean Peninsula. Now, inter-Korean rela-tions have fallen into difficulties due to sanc-tions against North Korea and the coronavirus pandemic, making it difficult to resume inter-Korean economic cooperation or to expect foreign firms to invest in inter-Korean eco-nomic cooperation. However, if inter-Korean economic cooperation is resumed, foreign firms' investment in inter-Korean economic cooperation will be prioritized.
    Keywords: Foreign Firms; Investment; Inter-Korean; Economic Cooperation
    Date: 2022–04–20
  34. By: Eunice Cascant (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon)
    Abstract: Despite being on top of geopolitical and economic agendas, migration has continued drastically increase especially in the 21 ST century. This phenomenon has led to the rise on an intertwined migrant activity referred to as Migrant entrepreneurship, with no exception of female migrant entrepreneurship as a result of the loopholes that exist in the economic and main stream labor integration policies .Migrant entrepreneurship not only contributes to the gross domestic product of the host countries but also that of the country of origin through remittances, hence making it a win-win situation. However, most studies reveal the existence of a gender gap between the male and female migrant entrepreneurs as both groups are far from homogeneity as they come from different countries of origins, age groups, past experience and motivating factors. Nevertheless, recent studies have depicted migrants as more entrepreneurial then the host country natives. Whereas other literature credits migrant entrepreneurship as a way of integration with in the host society. Based on the mixed embeddedness and effectual approaches, the research will investigate how female migrants develop entrepreneurial orientations and its influence on venture creation. In supportive of the effectual approach, an analysis of the impact of the host country's extant resources, opportunity recognition and decision making based on volatile and uncertain environments. We will as well highlight the role of the individual habitus, social capital and networks. This research is qualitative in nature based on female migrant case studies in the context of France. Our key findings, are four-fold; First, the results reveal when it comes to migrant entrepreneurship ,there is a significant gap between male and female migrant entrepreneurs.Secondly ,we un cover that female migrants develop entrepreneurial orientations through five main dimensions namely: (i) Innovativeness (ii) Proactiveness (iii) Risk taking (iv) Competitive aggressiveness and (v) Autonomy .Thirdly our research highlights the key role female migrant entrepreneurs play by including sustainability in their business models .Lastly, results show that female migrant entrepreneurial orientation development can be encouraged by policies designed to promote resources fit for migrants that in the end helps them leverage their capabilities and networks to open up ventures with in the host countries and further to international markets.
    Keywords: female migrant entrepreneurship,Migrant entrepreneurship,migrant entrepreneurial orientation,migrant ventures,migrant internationalisation,female entrepreneurship
    Date: 2021–12–10
  35. By: Mai, Nhat Chi
    Abstract: The final report intends to respond to the requirement according to the provision of the contract agreement signed between Bangladesh Regional Connectivity Project-1 (BRCP 1) and South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) for conducting “Policy Review/Policy Study/Policy Paper Preparation under the Bangladesh Regional Connectivity Project 1)’’ in collaboration with International Development Association (IDA), The World Bank. The objective of this technical assistance project is to review the existing government policies related to trade to strengthen cooperation in trade, transport, and transit facilities and facilitate the economic empowerment of women traders. The ongoing context and challenges are compared with the existing policies. It has also analysed the best practices of regional comparators to promote and improve trade-related activities as well as the relevance of SHE trade with the existing policies. Finally, based on the findings, the recommendation for future policy has been identified. Consultancy services for conducting the “Policy Review/Policy Study/Policy Paper Preparation under the Bangladesh Regional Connectivity Project 1)’’ was provided by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), Bangladesh. The study team consists of four senior-level experts. The major objective of the study is to depict a clear picture of the current situation state of the implementation of the policies, challenges for upcoming LDC graduation to provide the suggestion for future policies. Furthermore, Reviewing and identifying the gaps in the existing policies were also aimed to be found out for this study.
    Date: 2021–12–14
  36. By: Glyn Wittwer (Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University, Australia); Kym Anderson (Wine Economics Research Centre, School of Economics and Public Policy, University of Adelaide, Australia, and Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia)
    Abstract: This paper outlines four enhancements to a global model of national markets for wine, beer and spirits to improve its usefulness in policy analysis: each still wine type is split into red and white; the model distinguishes on-premise from off-premise consumption; California (responsible for nearly 90% of US wine production) is distinguished from the rest of the United States; and top-down modules are added to capture sub-national grape and wine impacts in Australia and sub-state impacts in California. The paper provides several illustrations of the usefulness of these enhancements for estimating impacts of market and public policy shocks and options.
    Keywords: Global beverage modelling, impacts of excise and import taxes, on-premise consumption, beverage alcohol levels
    JEL: C68 F17 H21 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2022–06
  37. By: Michela Limardi (Université de Lille - RIME lab et Université de Paris 1 - Centre d'Eonomie de la Sorbonne); Francesca Battista (College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences - Virginia Tech)
    Abstract: Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) exert pressure on multinational enterprises (MNE) to force the application of social and environmental standards for subcontractors in developing countries. Non-governmental regulation relies on voluntary standards defined by the NGOs,or by the MNE themselves. This leads to an uncertainty and social regulation. In this respect, external pressure from NGOs constitutes a reputational risk for the company. MNEs, in turn, try to manage those risks by increasingly monitoring the environmental and social impact of their global suppliers. Two forms of non-governmental enforcement currently prevail: warning (i.e.disclosing information of a violation to the company) versus immediate punishment (i.e. penalizing a company without disclosing information). A theoretical model is developed to determine whether disclosing (or not) information to the MNE about reputational risk is more effective. The results demonstrate that MNEs with a low reputation (or a high degree of out-sourcing) will have a higher incentive to conduct inspections of its global suppliers in a warning regime. Conversely, when MNE visibility is high, disclosing information in advance does not provide additional incentives
    Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility; Non-governmental organizations (NGOs); Enforcement
    JEL: L30 F23 J80
    Date: 2022–06
  38. By: Santiago Guerrero (OECD); Ben Henderson (OECD); Hugo Valin (OECD); Charlotte Janssens (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Petr Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Amanda Palazzo (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
    Abstract: This study investigates whether agricultural policy reforms could help cushion the impacts of climate change on agriculture by facilitating the relocation of production and international trade. The agricultural sector faces immense challenges in ensuring the provision of food, farm incomes, employment and environmental services in a changing climate. Its ability to meet these challenges depends, in part, on the flexibility with which agricultural production can be relocated in response to agro-ecological and market conditions being reshaped by climate change in a sustainable manner. To better understand these interactions, this study employs a quantitative model to assess the economic and environmental effects of removing market distorting policies under climate change. The modelling results suggest that the policy reforms could reduce the extent to which climate change increases agricultural commodity prices and undernourishment and, in that sense, contribute to global adaptation to climate change. The results also suggest that accompanying policy measures may be required to address potential trade-offs in some regions, in terms of land use emissions, water demand and farm income losses.
    Keywords: Adaptive capacity, Agricultural policy, Land use change, Non-technical measures, Producer support, Tariffs, Trade policy, Water scarcity
    JEL: C61 F18 Q11 Q17 Q54 O13
    Date: 2022–06–21

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