nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒07‒11
forty-four papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Modeling the Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers in Services on Intra-African Trade: Global Trade Analysis Project Model By Lukman OYELAMI; Amara ZONGO
  2. Analysis of U.S. International Economic Policies and its Implications By Kang, Gu Sang
  3. Service offshoring and export experience By Giuseppe Berlingieri; Luca Marcolin; Emanuel Ornelas
  4. Horizontal and Vertical Intra-industry Trade By Dutta, Sourish
  5. The impact of LDC graduation on trade: A quantitative assessment By Bekkers, Eddy; Cariola, Gianmarco
  6. RCEP-Countries create Asia-Pacific free trade zone: Trade facilitation but no integrated bloc By Dieter, Heribert
  7. Immigrant and native export benefiting from business collaborations: a global study By Shayegheh Ashourizadeh; Mehrzad Saeedikiya
  8. Cambodia’s Agri-Food Trade: Structure, New Emerging Potentials, Challenges & Impacts of Covid-19 By Piseth, Sok; Monyoudom, Yang; Tynarath, Houn
  9. 디지털 전환 시대의 디지털 통상정책 연구 (Digital Trade Policy in the Era of Digital Transformation) By Lee, Kyu Yub; Choi, Wonseok; Park, Ji Hyun; Eom, Jun Hyun; Kang, Minji; Whang, Unjung
  10. COVID-19 vs. GFC: A firm-level trade margins analysis using Kenyan data By Majune, Socrates Kraido; Türkcan, Kemal
  11. Communication break down: Typology of telecommunications provisions in regional trade agreements By Monteiro, José-Antonio; Posada, Kian Cassehgari; Tuthill, L. Lee
  12. Impacts of New International Tax System on Multinational Firms' FDI By Yea, Sangjun
  13. Intra-Bloc Tariffs and Preferential Margins in Trade Agreements By Ornelas, Emanuel; Tovar, Patricia
  14. Green New Deal for Carbon-neutrality and Open Trade Policy in Korea By Lee, Jukwan; Kim, Jong Duk; Moon, Jinyoung; Eom, Jun-Hyun; Kim, Ji Hyeon; Suh, Jungmin
  15. The Gravity of Distance: Evidence from a Trade Embargo By Afnan Al-Malk; Jean-François Maystadt; Maurizio Zanardi
  16. Immigrants and COVID-19 Travel Restrictions By Jang, Young-ook
  17. Globalization and market power By Giammario Impullitti; Syed Kazmi
  18. Size, Position and Length in Value Chains in Latin America By Lalanne, Ã lvaro
  19. B2B e-commerce marketplaces and MSMES: Evidence of global value chain facilitation? By Ladrière, Maxime; Lundquist, Kathryn; Ye, Qing
  20. Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting By Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
  21. The trade impact of the Covid-19 pandemic By Xuepeng Liu; Emanuel Ornelas; Huimin Shi
  22. Reassessing the health impacts of trade and investment agreements: a systematic review of quantitative studies, 2016–20 By Barlow, Pepita; Sanap, Rujuta; Garde, Amandine; Winters, L. Alan; Mabhala, Mzwandile A.; Thow, Anne Marie
  23. The Biden administration's Global Posture Review: Washington seeks to expand US military presence in Indo-Pacific without neglecting Europe By Overhaus, Marco
  24. Economic Integration and the Transmission of Democracy By Giacomo Magistretti; Marco Tabellini
  25. Improved Approximation to First-Best Gains-from-Trade By Yumou Fei
  26. Sequential exporting across countries and products By Facundo Albornoz; Hector F. Calvo Pardo; Gregory Corcos; Emanuel Ornelas
  27. Cutting Out the Middleman: The Structure of Chains of Intermediation By Matthew Grant; Meredith Startz
  28. The Growth of Firms, Markets and Rents: Evidence from China By Daniel Berkowitz
  29. Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the US By Marius Faber; Andrés P. Sarto; Marco Tabellini
  30. Building regional payment areas: the Single Rule Book approach By Douglas Arner; Ross Buckley; Thomas Lammer; Dirk Zetzsche; Sangita Gazi
  31. Foreign Ownership and Robot Adoption By Fabrizio Leone
  32. Maritime trade and economic development in North Korea By César Ducruet; In Joo Yoon
  33. Global Profit Shifting of Multinational Companies: Evidence from CbCR Micro Data By Clemens Fuest; Stefan Greil; Felix Hugger; Florian Neumeier
  34. Can the evolution of joint savings agreements counter the effect of higher costs of migration on its intensity? By Stark, Oded; Jakubek, Marcin
  35. Mobile Internet Access and the Desire to Emigrate By Joop Age Harm Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
  36. Industrial Parks in Africa: Building Nests for the Chinese Phoenix By Thierry Pairault
  37. Mergers, Foreign Entry, and Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Appliance Industry By Montag, Felix
  38. Copper to fibre migration: Regulated access fees incentivising migration By Eltges, Fabian; Fourberg, Niklas; Wiewiorra, Lukas
  39. Will the U.S. Dollar Continue to Dominate World Trade? By Mary Amiti; Oleg Itskhoki; Jozef Konings
  40. Toward achieving sustainable development agenda: Nexus between Agriculture, Trade Openness, and Oil rents in Nigeria By Festus F. Adedoyin; Olawumi A. Osundina; Festus V. Bekun; Simplice A. Asongu
  41. Population Adjustment to Asymmetric Labour Market Shocks in India - A Comparison to Europe and the United States at Two Different Regional Levels By Braschke, Franziska; Puhani, Patrick A.
  42. The EU after Brexit: Renewed debate about enlargement and deepening By Lippert, Barbara
  43. First summit of the anti-China coalition: Cornwall G7 highlights BRICS weakness By Dieter, Heribert
  44. The world uncertainty index By Hites Ahir; Nicholas Bloom; Davide Furceri

  1. By: Lukman OYELAMI; Amara ZONGO
    Abstract: In 2015, the African Union launched negotiations to establish an African free trade agreement named AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area). This paper examines the effects of the AfCFTA on intra-African trade in the short and long term. Associated with the implementation of this trade agreement, this paper assesses the impact of a reduction of 90% in import tariffs and 50% in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for goods and services on GDP and intra-African trade. In this study, we highlighted the role of services in intra-African trade. We use the computable general equilibrium model (GTAP) and ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTBs in services calculated using the Services Trade Restrictiveness Indices (STRIs) from the World Bank database following the Australian Productivity Commission’s methodology. Our results suggest that liberalization of services stimulates GDP growth in the long run. The reduction of NTBs in services leads to a rise in intra-African exports of agricultural products, manufactured goods, processed food, fuel, energyintensive products, wood and paper products, textiles and clothing in the long run. The manufacturing and natural resources sectors are the most affected by the reduction of barriers to services trade in Africa. Moreover, this trade agreement creates both long-term trade creation and diversion.
    Keywords: AfCFTA, Restrictions in Services, Trade in services, GTAP model
    JEL: F12 F13 F17
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: This study analyzes and evaluates the impact of foreign economic policies implemented during the Trump administration's four-year tenure, and aims to predict the direction of international economic policies under the Biden administration launched following the 2020 presidential election. The former President Trump put 'America First' as the slogan of economic policies and imposed import restrictions and tariffs on trading partners based on Sections 201, 232, and 301 of the U.S. trade acts. In addition, the Trump administration strongly promoted renegotiation, claiming that some existing trade agreements had been concluded unfavorably to the U.S. Furthermore, the Trump administration promoted the standardization of digital trade rules and the expansion of digital taxation in order to support the expansion of digital trade. Through the empirical analysis, we find that the Trump administration's tariff measures had a somewhat positive effect on the U.S. industrial employment, but it is difficult to say that the policy effect that President Trump initially expected was achieved as the measures also had a negative effect on industrial production. Moreover, we find that the tax reform had only a short-term effect in reducing the U.S. direct investment to foreign countries. Like the Trump administration, the Biden administration's international economic policy directions are showing strong protectionist perspectives such as maintaining tariffs on Chinese imports and reorganization of the global supply chains centered on the U.S. Based on our analysis, there are three policy implications. First, it is necessary to strengthen digital trade cooperation with middle power countries participating in the WTO e-commerce negotiations along with a detailed analysis and review of the economic impacts. Second, Korea needs to take advantage of the benefits provided by the U.S. federal government and strengthen cooperation in the supply chain based on norms with the U.S. Finally, Korea needs to reach an amicable agreement with the U.S. on trade remedies that have already been applied by raising the need to strengthen its supply chain with the U.S.
    Keywords: U.S.; International Economic Policy; Implication
    Date: 2022–05–09
  3. By: Giuseppe Berlingieri; Luca Marcolin; Emanuel Ornelas
    Abstract: Service inputs are a key component of the costs of exporting, and contribute to explain the process of internationalization of firms. A new dataset on the participation of French firms in global value chains reveals that firms with longer export experience in a market are more likely to source service inputs from there. We rationalize this fact in a model where firms are initially uncertain about how successful they are as exporters, but learn their export profitability as they keep selling abroad. Because offshoring requires larger sunk costs than domestic sourcing, some firms decide to offshore only when they become sufficiently confident about their export prospects, i.e., once they acquire enough export experience. More export experience in a foreign destination also induces firms to offshore within the boundaries of the firm rather than at arm's length. The model further implies that firms are more likely to offshore when frictions in the provision of services between the domestic and the foreign market are greater. In turn, offshoring firms sell greater volumes, display less volatility, and are less likely to exit foreign markets. Exploiting our novel dataset, we provide strong empirical support for each of these predictions.
    Keywords: export dynamics, commercial presence, global sourcing, services, firm boundaries
    Date: 2021–06–03
  4. By: Dutta, Sourish
    Abstract: From the beginning of the 1980s, the first theoretical analysis of intra-industry trade showed that the determinants and consequences of this type of trade are different, depending on whether the traded products differ in quality. When the products are subject to intra-industry trade between two countries with distinct quality, this trade is vertically differentiated. Otherwise, it is called horizontal differentiation. There is a method for distinguishing intra-industry trade between two countries in vertical differentiation from those in horizontal differentiation. This method compares the unit value of exports to that of imports for each industry's intra-industry trade. It considers the intra-industry trading carried out in this industry as vertical differentiation when the unit value of exports differs significantly from that of imports.
    Keywords: Intra-Industry Trade, Horizontal Differentiation, Vertical Differentiation
    JEL: F10 F11 F12 F14
    Date: 2022–05
  5. By: Bekkers, Eddy; Cariola, Gianmarco
    Abstract: Several Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will graduate from the LDC status in the coming decade implying that they will lose preferential access to export markets. We quantify the expected impact of LDC graduation on exports of graduating and non-graduating LDCs incorporating detailed preference utilization data in a partial equilibrium model. We compare the results under actual and full preference utilization rates. Separately, we explore how underutilization of tariff preferences affects the exports of countries benefiting from such preferences. The analysis generates four main results. First, according to our projections, graduation will have a negative impact on the exports of graduating LDCs (more than US$ 6 billion export loss or 6% of exports), especially in the clothing sector. Second, the adverse trade effects of graduation would be overestimated by 30% under full instead of actual utilization rates. Third, our projections suggest that the increase in exports of non-graduating LDCs following graduation of other LDCs would be limited, implying that non-graduating poorer LDCs may hardly benefit from graduation of richer LDCs. Fourth, our projections suggest that increasing the utilization of LDC preferences would have positive trade effects. The exports of LDCs would increase by almost US$ 7 billion if they simultaneously switched to a full utilization regime.
    Keywords: LDC graduation,tariff preferences,partial equilibrium model
    JEL: F13 F17 O19
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Dieter, Heribert
    Abstract: The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on 15 November 2020 establishes the world's largest free trade area. The agreement was hailed as an important step forward for the international trade system: protectionism is no longer the only visible option for the third decade of the twenty-first century. But RCEP is a relatively weak instrument. It consolidates existing trade agreements in the region, but does not represent a breakthrough to a liberal economic space. It lacks the potential to make the Asia-Pacific region into a monolithic trading bloc, nor does it contribute to overcoming growing political tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Shayegheh Ashourizadeh; Mehrzad Saeedikiya
    Abstract: The authors hypothesised that export develops in the network of business collaborations that are embedded in migration status. In that, collaborative networking positively affects export performance and immigrant entrepreneurs enjoy higher collaborative networking than native entrepreneurs due to their advantage of being embedded in the home and the host country. Moreover, the advantage of being an immigrant promotes the benefits of collaborative networking for export compared to those of native entrepreneurs. A total of 47,200 entrepreneurs starting, running and owning firms in 71 countries were surveyed by Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and analysed through the hierarchical linear modelling technique. Collaborative networking facilitated export and migration status influenced entrepreneur networking, in that, immigrant entrepreneurs had a higher level of collaborative networking than native entrepreneurs. Consequently, immigrant entrepreneurs seemed to have benefited from their network collaborations more than their native counterparts did. This study sheds light on how immigrant entrepreneur network collaborations can be effective for their exporting.
    Date: 2022–05
  8. By: Piseth, Sok; Monyoudom, Yang; Tynarath, Houn
    Abstract: This study provides overall analysis and informs readers about Cambodia’s agri-food trade regarding recent structures of trade flows, new emerging potentials, main challenges, and impacts of COVID19. The main data source is BACI datasets produced by Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), the French leading center research and expertise on the world economy. Cambodia is a net importer of agricultural products for the last several years, resulting in agricultural trade deficit of 1.26 billion US dollars in 2018. Top agricultural products for export include cassava, rice, rubber, nuts, and animal feeds. At the same time, Cambodia imports massive amounts of tobacco products (i.e. cigarette), sugar, non-alcoholic beverages, and beer. The country is seen to export low-value agricultural primary products (i.e. fresh manioc or sliced cassava) and import highvalue manufactured products and processed foods (i.e. starch, flour, and prepared meats). Comparing to neighboring countries, Cambodia still lags behind in terms of product quality, productivity, and export competitiveness due to low value addition, high costs of production, unfavorable transport conditions, burdensome of border documents, and market diversification. Cambodian’s economy faced negative growth for the first time in decades. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, does not hurt agricultural sector much in Cambodia. The Royal Government of Cambodia, during the pandemic, has banned export of white rice to ensure domestic consumption. The export of fragrant rice, on the other hand, was seen substantially increased in 2020. In late 2020, Cambodia has signed free trade agreement with China, allowing 340 agricultural products to enter Chinese market. However, there was a significant drop of manioc export from Cambodia. As policy recommendation, Cambodia should explore import substitution in processed foods to diverse its export structure that heavily depends on garments and primary agriculture. Consequently, promoting more investments in domestic processing industry of the primary agricultural products and enhancing current processing capacity are the foremost step to increase value-addition of agricultural sector. Cost of production including electricity, gas or oil, water, and quality transportation should be highly considered by relevant government ministries to achieve better efficiency of each stage of value chains. Technology in agriculture such as AI, drone, and farm-based technology is immensely needed to improve productivity and quality assurance of the products for commercialization. At broader perspective, not solely depending on regional or free trade agreements, Cambodia should explore further potential markets around the globe to expand its exports of agricultural products. Therefore, joint coordination among relevant government ministries and stakeholders is immensely needed to achieve the ambitious goal.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis
    Date: 2021–11–01
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 이 보고서에서는 한국의 중장기 디지털 통상정책 방향과 주요 정책과제를 제시하기 위해 디지털 무역과 디지털 무역장벽의 현황을 살펴보고, 글로벌 디지털 통상규범의 제정 추이와 한국의 정책 대응을 점검한다. 이후 한국의 디지털 통상정책을 평가한다. English Abstract: This study focused on digital trade policies that affect the trading of goods and services over the internet. After examining digital trade and digital trade barriers, changes of global digital trade norms, and Korea’s digital trade policy response, the study presented major tasks of Korea’s digital trade policy and mid- to long-term policy direction. The scale of goods imported and exported by Korea through the internet in 2020 was about KRW 6 trillion and 4.1 trillion, respectively. It is difficult to find statistics on Korea’s service exports through the internet. In this study, we estimated the size of Korea’s service exports through the internet in 2018 and 2019 by combining data on electronic intangible goods import/export confirmation document from the Korea International Trade Association and data on value-added declaration from the National Tax Service. First, Korea’s service exports through the internet exceeded at least KRW 3 trillion in both 2018 and 2019. Second, in 2019, the volume of service exports through the internet increased by about 6.89% from the previous year. Third, the scale of export of services through the internet (except for the duty-free shop performance) was larger than that of goods. To estimate the sales effect of domestic e-commerce firms, we matched survey data by KIEP and Korean Enterprise Data and applied the Difference-in-Difference estimation using the propensity score matching technique. In the year of first entry into the e-commerce market, it was estimated that the per capita sales growth rate of e-commerce firms was about 9.5% higher than that of general domestic firms included in the control group. We also conducted a survey titled with Status of Digital Trade Barriers and Difficulties from January to June 2021. As a result of analyzing the randomized data (number of firms: 1,029), we identified that common difficulties of firms were from e-commerce facilitation, digital products, and data regulation, and the difficulties caused digital trade barriers were more burdensome to smaller size of firms. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: Digital Trade Policy; Digital Transformation; Korea
    Date: 2021–12–30
  10. By: Majune, Socrates Kraido; Türkcan, Kemal
    Abstract: This study describes trade margins (intensive and extensive) and establishes determinants of the mid-point export and import growth during the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic by relying on Kenya's monthly customs transaction data (at 6-digit level of Harmonized System) for the period January 2006-June 2020. Exports fell during the two crises, of which the intensive margin was responsible for the drop during GFC while the extensive margin dominated the COVID-19 era. Imports are mainly driven by the extensive margin which grew during GFCbut declined during the pandemic. However, the fall in the intensive and extensive margins was near symmetrical during the pandemic. Estimates from the fixed-effects regression model reveal that the decrease in export and import mid-point growth was larger during the COVID-19 pandemic than GFC and it was determined by several factors: firm-, product- and partner-country characteristics. Overall, addressing both supply- and demand-side shocks can help countries adjust better to future crises.
    Keywords: trade margins,mid-point growth,GFC,COVID-19,Kenya
    JEL: F02 F14 F23 F60 G01
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Monteiro, José-Antonio; Posada, Kian Cassehgari; Tuthill, L. Lee
    Abstract: Although a growing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) include telecommunications provisions, the collection and systematization of information on telecommunications provisions in RTAs remain limited. This paper addresses this gap by mapping and reviewing the different types of provisions on telecommunications found in RTAs that have been notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The analysis reveals that telecommunications provisions in RTAs cover a broad range of regulatory issues, from access and use to anticompetition to standards and technical regulations and cooperation. While some telecommunications provisions, in particular on telecommunications services, replicate existing WTO rules, many other provisions add clarifications or expand some of the disciplines set out in the WTO agreements. At the same time, new types of provisions have been devised to address new regulatory and technological issues, including mobile services, internet access and consumer rights. These new provisions, consistent with the overall aim of the WTO rules, aim at fostering a pro-competitive regulatory framework of the telecommunications sector.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization,Regional Trade Agreements,Telecommunications,Digital economy
    JEL: F13 F15
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: In this study, I present a theoretical model to quantitatively assess the economics impact of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2, especially focusing on the changes in the FDI patterns of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Pillar 1 offsets the incentives of MNEs' profits-shifting for tax-planning purposes, thereby reducing the inbound FDI into the countries with low corporate income tax rates. Pillar 2 burdens MNEs with 'top-up' taxes attributed from the subsidiaries in low tax countries. As the profits after tax (PAT) of MNEs shrink at the global level, innovation and R&D investment for new products will decrease, and as a result, global FDI flows will hamper.
    Keywords: International Tax System; Multinational Firms; FDI
    Date: 2022–04–28
  13. By: Ornelas, Emanuel; Tovar, Patricia
    Abstract: We study, theoretically and empirically, how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins when they form Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically lower preferential margins when the bloc takes the form of free trade areas (where members set external trade policies independently), relative to customs unions (where members coordinate external tariffs). Moreover, in customs unions (but not necessarily in free trade areas) preferential margins should increase with the supply of partner countries and decrease with the level of preferential imports. These relationships reflect, respectively, the internalization of political-economy goals within the bloc and the desire to curb trade diversion. Using a sample that covers most PTAs formed by Latin American countries in the 1990s, when their popularity in the region shot up, we find empirical support for each of those predictions. These findings make clear that the type of PTA matters significantly for the bloc’s tariff structure. Our results carry out important implications for the welfare consequences and social desirability of different types of PTAs.
    Keywords: Aduanas, Comercio internacional, Economía, Investigación socioeconómica, Políticas públicas,
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: This study focuses on Korea’s Green New Deal policy and global response measures to climate change that affect international trade. A trade policy perspective and approach have been applied while reviewing the carbon-neutral policy pursued by the Green New Deal. We attempted through an empirical analysis to determine whether the expansion of openness helps reduce carbon emissions and simulate the impact of a carbon-neutral policy, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment, on the global economy under global production networks. In addition, the amount of financial support from Korea's Green New Deal needed to offset the negative economic effects of other countries’ independent carbon-neutral policies was derived. This study finally suggests that the effect of the Green New Deal can be expanded through the restoration of openness and global cooperation.
    Keywords: Green New Deal; Carbon-neutrality; Open Trade Policy; Korea
    Date: 2022–05–24
  15. By: Afnan Al-Malk (Department of Finance and Economics, Qatar University); Jean-François Maystadt (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Maurizio Zanardi (School of Economics, University of Surrey)
    Abstract: On June 5th, 2017, an airspace blockade was imposed on the state of Qatar by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (neighboring countries) and Egypt. We exploit this exogenous increase in air transportation costs towards non-blockading countries to examine the effect of increased travel distance, due to re-routing, on bilateral trade. Based on a gravity model estimated with a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, we find a distance elasticity of imports between -0.3 and -0.5. Overcoming the limitations of cross-sectional studies and taking advantage of this quasi-natural experiment, our findings are robust and revise downwards previous estimates of the distance elasticity.
    Keywords: Embargo, Distance Effect, International Trade
    JEL: F14 L93
    Date: 2022–06–08
    Abstract: This study attempts to examine the impact of the presence of foreign workers on COVID-19 related border closures. In the countries that are highly dependent on foreign workers, there have been difficulties in supplying labor due to entry restrictions and border closure during the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical analysis shows that the entry restrictions were passively imposed where the share of immigrant is high. This trend was observed more conspicuously in high-income countries where various policy combinations could be used in addition to entry restrictions. The cost of entry restrictions could be alleviated by placing other measures which are deemed more efficient, including 3T (test, trace/isolate, treatment) strategy and Special Entry Procedure. It is necessary to develop policies to minimize negative effects on immigration and immigrants, while controlling epidemic waves at the same time.
    Keywords: Immigrant; COVID-19; Travel Restriction
    Date: 2022–05–11
  17. By: Giammario Impullitti; Syed Kazmi
    Abstract: Economic theory suggests that the markup is the most appropriate measure of market power and that its relationship with trade is rich and complex. Trade liberalisation can reduce markups via a decline in the residual domestic demand but also increase it via several channels. First, the incomplete pass-through of the cost reductions produced by lower input tariffs. Second, trade leads to more concentrated markets via entry and exit, putting upward pressure on markups. Third, market shares reallocation toward larger, more powerful firms, increase the aggregate markup. We propose a simple model of trade under oligopoly which incorporates all these channels. Using a large episode of trade liberalisation in Spain, we test this rich set of mechanisms linking trade and markups. The overall effects of trade on firm level and aggregate markups is pro-competitive but we find evidence of offsetting effects via the other channels. In particular, we show that firms protected by higher barriers to entry, measured as high intangible investment, R&D spending and patents, experience a weaker reduction in markups. Supporting a new theoretical insight emerging from our model that the feedback effect on trade-induced concentration on markups is stronger with higher barriers to entry.
    Keywords: international trade; markups; oligopoly
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Lalanne, Ã lvaro
    Abstract: In this article, I develop a framework that divides global value chains into regional and extra-regional and studies the participation of Latin American countries in international fragmentation of production along 25 years of globalization. Measures of depth, position, and length are developed for each kind of value chain. Between 1990 and 2015 the engagement in activities related to international trade increased in every country in Latin America and the prevalent way of integration is in Extra-Regional Value Chains. While South America engages mostly in value chains as a source of value added transformed by others, Central America participates more as end of chains and Mexico switched its position to a net forward position in regional value chains. Finally, the article examines the relationship between participation and length of domestic segment of chains, finding that a deeper participation in Extra-regional Value Chains is associated with shortening of chains, but this relationship does not hold for Regional.
    Keywords: Aduanas, Comercio internacional, Competitividad, Integración, Investigación socioeconómica, Políticas públicas, Puertos,
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Ladrière, Maxime; Lundquist, Kathryn; Ye, Qing
    Abstract: In theory, e-commerce marketplaces connect buyers and sellers, open trade opportunities, and reduce transaction costs thereby creating opportunities for more inclusive trade and even GVC participation, especially for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Further, there is some evidence that MSMEs are more likely to use e-commerce marketplaces than large firms given these websites reduce search frictions and transaction costs, which can be relatively more beneficial for smaller firms. This discussion paper explores non-traditional data to investigate whether e-commerce marketplaces may contribute to MSME GVC participation. By looking at the development of business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce marketplaces, the gross merchandise value (GMV) of regional e-commerce marketplaces, and MSMEs' overall participation in B2B e-commerce marketplaces, descriptive statistics are gathered that contributes to the overall discussion on this topic. This discussion paper also links B2B e-commerce marketplaces with GVC facilitation through a novel approach of cataloguing these platforms' merchandise and finds that on average, roughly one third of B2B e-commerce marketplace listings are intermediate goods.
    Keywords: Micro,Small and Medium Sized Enterprise (MSME),SME,e-commerce,marketplaces,global value chains (GVC)
    JEL: F13 L81 O30
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
    Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.
    Keywords: globalization, labor market outcomes, fertility, marriage
    JEL: F14 F16 J13
    Date: 2022
  21. By: Xuepeng Liu; Emanuel Ornelas; Huimin Shi
    Abstract: Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from China during 2020. We find that a country's own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed over the negative supply effects of the pandemic. On the other hand, Covid-19 deaths in the main trading partners of a country (excluding China) induces more imports from China, partially offsetting countries' own effects. The net effect of moving from the pre-pandemic situation to another where the main variables are evaluated at their 2020 mean is, on average, a reduction of nearly 10% in imports from China. There is also significant heterogeneity. For example, the negative own effects of the pandemic vanish when we restrict the sample to medical goods and are significantly mitigated for products with a high "work-from-home" share or a high contract intensity for products exported under processing trade, and for capital goods. We also find that deaths and lockdowns in previous months tend to increase current imports from China, partially offsetting the contemporaneous trade loss, suggesting that trade is not simply "destroyed", but partially "postponed".
    Keywords: trade flows, Covid-19, lockdown, stringency, China
    Date: 2021–05–26
  22. By: Barlow, Pepita; Sanap, Rujuta; Garde, Amandine; Winters, L. Alan; Mabhala, Mzwandile A.; Thow, Anne Marie
    Abstract: To ensure a high level of health protection, governments must ensure that health and trade policy objectives are aligned. We conducted a systematic review of the health impacts of trade policies, including trade and investment agreements (TIAs), to provide a timely overview of this field. We systematically reviewed studies evaluating the health impacts of trade policies published between Jan 19, 2016, and July 10, 2020. Included studies were quantitative studies evaluating the impact of TIAs and trade policies on health determinants or outcomes. We evaluated methodological quality and performed a narrative synthesis. 21 of 28 067 articles identified via searches met our criteria. Methodologically strong studies found reduced child mortality, deteriorating worker health, rising supplies of sugar, ultra-processed food, tobacco, and alcohol supplies, and increased drug overdoses following trade reforms, compared with the time periods before trade reform. However, associations varied substantially across contexts and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings show that trade policies, including TIAs, have diverse effects on health and health determinants. These effects vary substantially across contexts and socioeconomic groups. Governments seeking to adopt healthy trade policies should consider these updated findings to ensure that opportunities for health improvement are leveraged and widely shared, while harms are avoided, especially among vulnerable groups.
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2022–05–01
  23. By: Overhaus, Marco
    Abstract: The global implications of a switch to hydrogen (H2) are far-reaching, as hydrogen will, at least in part, gradually replace the oil and gas trade, and new international trade flows will emerge. In addition, hydrogen will transform the industry, and its use will have disruptive effects that reshape the economic geography. Policymakers are being called upon to make far-reaching, fundamental decisions that will decisively shape the contours of the hydrogen world. Germany and the European Union (EU) should consider the geo-economic and political consequences when setting the course.
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Giacomo Magistretti; Marco Tabellini
    Abstract: In this paper, we study if exposure to the institutions of trade partners changes individuals' attitudes towards democracy and favors the process of democratization. We combine survey data with country-level measures of democracy from 1960 to 2015, and exploit the improvement in air, relative to sea, transportation to derive a time-varying instrument for trade. Relying on within-country variation across cohorts, we find that individuals who grew up when their country was more integrated with democracies are, at the time of the survey, more supportive of democracy. In line with the change in citizens' preferences, economic integration with democratic partners has a large, positive effect on a country's democracy score. Instead, economic integration with non-democratic partners has no impact on either individuals' attitudes or countries' institutions. We provide evidence consistent with the transmission of democratic capital from more to less democratic countries.
    JEL: F14 F15 P16
    Date: 2022–05
  25. By: Yumou Fei
    Abstract: We study the two-agent single-item bilateral trade. Ideally, the trade should happen whenever the buyer's value for the item exceeds the seller's cost. However, the classical result of Myerson and Satterthwaite showed that no mechanism can achieve this without violating one of the Bayesian incentive compatibility, individual rationality and weakly balanced budget conditions. This motivates the study of approximating the trade-whenever-socially-beneficial mechanism, in terms of the expected gains-from-trade. Recently, Deng, Mao, Sivan, and Wang showed that the random-offerer mechanism achieves at least a 1/8.23 approximation. We improve this lower bound to 1/3.15 in this paper. We also determine the exact worst-case approximation ratio of the seller-pricing mechanism assuming the distribution of the buyer's value satisfies the monotone hazard rate property.
    Date: 2022–04
  26. By: Facundo Albornoz; Hector F. Calvo Pardo; Gregory Corcos; Emanuel Ornelas
    Abstract: How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a consequence, exporters add products and countries sequentially, in an interdependent process. Exploiting disaggregated data on French exporters, we find empirical support consistent with such a mechanism, where firms learn from their initial export experiences and then adjust their sales, number of products and destination countries accordingly. Our results indicate that part of the learning is firm-specific, and not merely product- or market-specific. Furthermore, we find that firms tend to expand in the sub-extensive margin first by widening product scope within a destination and later by entering new destinations; and that firms' core products are particularly resilient despite being used to "test the waters" when entering additional countries.
    Keywords: export dynamics, experimentation, uncertainty, multiproduct firms, market inter-dependence
    Date: 2021–06–02
  27. By: Matthew Grant; Meredith Startz
    Abstract: Distribution of goods often involves multiple intermediaries engaged in sequential buying and reselling. Why do these chains of intermediation exist, and what are their implications for consumers? We show that multi-intermediary chains arise in response to internal economies of scale in trade costs. This suggests that chains will be longer on average in developing countries, and can account for empirical patterns in firm size and prices that we document using original data on imported consumer goods in Nigeria. While policy wisdom often calls for shortening chains, we show that this has ambiguous welfare implications. Equilibrium distribution structures are not generally efficient, and policies and technologies that lead to shorter chains will not necessarily benefit consumers, even when intermediaries hold market power. Instead, there is a fundamental trade-off: shorter chains have lower marginal cost but also fewer sellers, which can reduce competition, product availability, and access to retailers. We embed this insight in a quantifiable model of endogenous intermediation chains, which we calibrate for distribution of Chinese-made apparel in Nigeria, and describe changes in chain structure in response to counterfactual changes in regulation and e-commerce technologies. We find that cutting out middlemen has heterogeneous welfare impacts but may harm remote consumers.
    JEL: F1 F12 F14 O1
    Date: 2022–06
  28. By: Daniel Berkowitz
    Abstract: During 1995-2007, China enacted reforms fostering competition including acceding to theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) and encouraging entry of non-state firms. While there isevidence that firms reduced markups, there is competing evidence that incumbent firms gainedrents. We estimate the impact of net entry on rents at the market level using US trade uncertaintyand colonial treaty ports as excluded and included instruments for net entry. Wedocument that: 1) rents existed; 2) rents arose from a market expansion that was faster thannet entry; 3) rents grew most rapidly outside of treaty ports and in low-trade uncertainty sectors.
    Date: 2022–01
  29. By: Marius Faber; Andrés P. Sarto; Marco Tabellini
    Abstract: Migration is a key mechanism through which local labor markets adjust to economic shocks. In this paper, we analyze the migration response of American workers to two of the most important shocks that hit US manufacturing since the 1990s: Chinese import competition and the introduction of industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across US local labor markets over time, we establish a new fact. Even though both shocks drastically reduced employment in the manufacturing sector, only robots led to a sizable decline in population size. We provide evidence that negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots but not by Chinese imports, can explain the different migration responses. We interpret our findings through the lens of a model that highlights two mechanisms: the cost savings that each shock provides and the degree of complementarity between directly and indirectly exposed industries.
    JEL: J21 J23 J61
    Date: 2022–05
  30. By: Douglas Arner; Ross Buckley; Thomas Lammer; Dirk Zetzsche; Sangita Gazi
    Abstract: In October 2020, the G20 endorsed a significant initiative to enhance cross-border payments. Faster, cheaper, more transparent, and more inclusive cross-border payment services will deliver widespread benefits for citizens and economies worldwide, supporting economic growth, international trade, global development, and financial inclusion. Enhancing cross-border payments requires more than mere adoption of technical standards. The best outcome involves aligned technological, regulatory, and legal frameworks. This paper analyzes such payment integration projects. Each border adds to the costs of a cross-border payment if crossing the border means entering into a different technological, regulatory and legal environment, with different systems, regulators, and courts. Under ideal circumstances, cross-border payments will be processed as seamlessly as comparable domestic payments, even where various currencies are processed. While this highly ambitious target is unlikely to be achieved globally in the short to medium term, regionally, the gap between cross-border and domestic payments has already been narrowed. At the global level, mismatches between the inter-institutional framework on the back-end and the contractual relationship with clients on the front-end represent potential costs for the payment services provider and increase legal risk, prompting costly legal, due diligence manual adjustments in payments processes. A high degree of cross-border harmonization via rulebooks along the technological, regulatory, and legal dimensions has been instrumental for successful regional integration projects and has promoted straight-through-processing. Potentially costly events such as rejects, returns, and revocations of payment orders have been reduced, sanction screening and financial crime compliance processes agreed. Drawing on this insight, this paper suggests globally coordinated action to develop a comprehensive framework to guide and support regional payment integration. This we call a "Single Rule Book." Such a Single Rule Book could be instrumental in enhancing safety, efficiency, and integrity in cross-border payments. We explore its potential contents, and importantly, the minimum standards it would impose.
    Keywords: payments, cross-border payments, central banks, harmonization of law
    JEL: G20 G21 G28 E42 E58 K23 K24 O16
    Date: 2022–05
  31. By: Fabrizio Leone
    Abstract: This paper shows that multinational enterprises (MNEs) spur the adoption of industrial robots. First, I document a positive and robust correlation between multinational production and robot adoption using a new cross-country industry-level panel. Second, using detailed data about Spanish manufacturing, I combine a difference-in-differences approach with a propensity score reweighing estimator and provide evidence that firms switching from domestic to foreign ownership become about 10% more likely to employ robots. In terms of mechanism, increased foreign market access via the parental network generates incentives to scale-up production, and robot adoption is one way to achieve this goal. An empirical model of rm investment reveals that multinational-induced robot adoption raises productivity but decreases the labor share at the industry level. Theseresults provide new evidence about the efficiency versus equity trade-off that policymakers face when attracting MNEs.
    Keywords: Foreign Ownership, Industrial Robots, Total Factor Productivity, Factor-Biased Productivity, Labor Share
    Date: 2022–05
  32. By: César Ducruet; In Joo Yoon
    Abstract: The North Korean economy is experiencing a deepening economic and political crisis since the early 1990s. Although North Korea is not commonly seen as a shipping nation, its major cities are coastal, and it hosts nine international trading ports. However, little is known about the role of maritime transport in its development. This article uses vessel movement data to reconstitute the maritime network linking North Korean ports and other ports, over the period 1977-2021. Besides the drastic connectivity loss, main results conclude about a limited role of maritime transport in economic development, except for its participation to China's increasing grip on North Korea. This research brings new knowledge about North Korea and contributes to advance maritime network studies in general.
    Keywords: multivariate analysis, international trade, maritime connectivity, network analysis
    JEL: R40 N75 P20
    Date: 2022
  33. By: Clemens Fuest; Stefan Greil; Felix Hugger; Florian Neumeier
    Abstract: This paper uses micro data from country-by-country reporting of more than 3600 large multinational companies operating in 238 jurisdictions to analyze global profit shifting to avoid taxes. These companies report 7% of their global profits in jurisdictions with effective average tax rates below 5%, but only 0.4% of their employees and 3% of their tangible assets are located there. We find that globally, these companies reduce their tax burden by EUR 53 billion (15% of their overall tax payments) by shifting profits to low-tax countries. Losses of the US and Canada are slightly lower, the losses of the EU 27 member states are similar to the global average. 60% of the profit shifting is carried out by the 10% largest multinational companies. We show that taking into account non-linearities in profit shifting and subsidiaries reporting zero profits is of key importance for accurate estimates of profit shifting. We also investigate profit shifting channels and provide evidence suggesting that the location of IP and equity in low tax countries as well as the provision of loans to entities in high tax countries play a key role for tax planning.
    Keywords: : corporate taxation, tax avoidance, profit shifting, multinational enterprises, country-by-country reporting
    JEL: F23 H25 H26
    Date: 2022
  34. By: Stark, Oded; Jakubek, Marcin
    Abstract: In this paper we consider a population of would-be migrants in a developing country. To begin with, this population is divided into two sets: those who save by themselves to pay for the cost of their migration, and those who pool their savings with the savings of another would-be migrant to pay for the cost. Saving jointly brings forward the timing of migration: funds needed to pay for the migration of one of the co-savers can be accumulated more quickly, enabling him, using his higher income at destination than at origin, to speed up the migration of his co-saver. However, people may hesitate to save jointly for fear that a co-saver who is the first to migrate might fail to keep his part of the agreement. We show that an increase in the cost of migration stimulates the formation of co-financing, joint-saving arrangements that enable would-be migrants to cushion the impact of the increase. The evolution of joint-saving arrangements can create a time window during which the intensity of migration need not decrease: no fewer people (and conceivably even more of them) will migrate during a time interval that follows the increase in the cost. This prediction is at variance with the canonical economic model of migration according to which if migration is costlier, then there will be less of it.
    Keywords: Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2022–06–14
  35. By: Joop Age Harm Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: In this paper, we present theory and global evidence on how mobile internet access affects desire and plans to emigrate. Our theory predicts that mobile internet access increases desire and plans to emigrate. Our empirical analysis combines survey data on 617,402 individuals from 2,120 subnational districts in 112 countries with data on worldwide 3G mobile internet rollout from 2008 to 2018. We show that an increase in mobile internet access increases the desire and plans to emigrate. Instrumenting 3G rollout with pre-existing 2G infrastructure suggests that the effects are causal. The effect on the desire to emigrate is particularly strong in high-income countries and for above-median-income individuals in lower-middle-income countries. In line with our theory, an important mechanism appears to be that access to the mobile internet lowers the cost of acquiring information on potential destinations. In addition to this, increased internet access reduces perceived material well-being and trust in government. Using municipal-level data from Spain, we also document that 3G rollout increased actual emigration flows.
    Keywords: migration aspirations, migration intentions, internet access
    JEL: F20 L86 D83
    Date: 2022
  36. By: Thierry Pairault (CECMC-CCJ - Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine - CCJ - Chine, Corée, Japon - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This essay examines the impact and consequences of the promotion in Africa of China's experience with special economic zones (SEZs), how these zones could enable African countries to emulate the "Chinese miracle," and how they will serve China's ambition to pursue its economic goals. There is evidence that Chinese industrial parks in Africa, which China refers to as overseas economic and commercial cooperation zones (OECCZs), are not replicating the experience of SEZs in China. While an SEZ is a zone created by a host country on its own territory to attract foreign investors and to promote its own development, an OECCZ is an enclave designed by a Chinese company appointed by China to create a Chinese ecosystem in a host country's territory to accommodate Chinese companies. OECCZs are de facto subject to Chinese law and thus boost Chinese economic development. While China is forging such economic dependence of African countries on its own economy, it is also building a political clientele to serve its power assertion.
    Keywords: SEZ,China,Africa,ZES,Chine,Afrique
    Date: 2022–05–03
  37. By: Montag, Felix
    Abstract: Proponents of industrial policy argue that merger control should consider domestic employment. I propose a model to assess how a product market merger affects rival product entry, consumer welfare, and domestic employment. Firms endogenously decide which products to offer. Domestic jobs depend on production locations and equilibrium quantities in the product market. I estimate the structural parameters of this model for the U.S. home appliance industry. Using the structural model, I examine the impact of Whirlpool’s acquisition of Maytag and compare it to the impact of a counterfactual acquisition by a foreign buyer with no prior presence in the U.S. market. Four key findings emerge from the comparison of these two acquisitions: First, rival product entry is mostly independent of the acquirer. Second, a Whirlpool acquisition leads to the removal of more merging party products. Third, it always leads to lower consumer welfare. Fourth, a Whirlpool acquisition leads to a smaller decrease in U.S. employment. I use these results to estimate the job value necessary for domestic employment effects to offset consumer welfare losses.
    Keywords: merger, jobs, Appliance Industry
    Date: 2022–06
  38. By: Eltges, Fabian; Fourberg, Niklas; Wiewiorra, Lukas
    Abstract: To shed more light on consumer-sided demand migration, we adapt Chen & Riordan's (2007) Spokes Model of spatial competition to a duopolistic-multi-product firm setting in which both firms simultaneously offer fibre and copper products comparable to Brito & Tselekounis (2017). Our model will be designed as a 2x2-product Spokes Model where two operators, an Incumbent and an Entrant, offer each a fibre and a copper based end customer internet product, with the Entrant paying an access fee for the latter one. Deriving operators' profits given demand shifts induced by asymmetric pricing strategies, we find that both operators experience trade-offs in the wholesale access fees, with the trade-off of the Incumbent being more binding as he has the higher interest in keeping demand in the copper network high. We characterise the relation of fibre take-up and welfare by finding out that fibre take-up and welfare both increase simultaneously in the copper wholesale access fee up to a critical threshold. Beyond this threshold, additional take-up will be paid by loss of total welfare.
    Date: 2021
  39. By: Mary Amiti; Oleg Itskhoki; Jozef Konings
    Abstract: There are around 180 currencies in the world, but only a very small number of them play an outsized role in international trade, finance, and central bank foreign exchange reserves. In the modern era, the U.S. dollar has a dominant international presence, followed to a lesser extent by the euro and a handful of other currencies. Although the use of specific currencies is remarkably stable over time, with the status of dominant currencies remaining unchanged over decades, there have been decisive shifts in the international monetary system over long horizons. For example, the British pound only lost its dominant currency status in the 1930s, well after Britain stopped being the leading world economy. In a new study, we show that the currency that is used in international trade transactions is an active firm-level decision rather than something that is just fixed. This finding raises the question of what factors could augment or reduce the U.S. dollar’s dominance in world trade.
    Keywords: currency invoicing; exporters; trade; US dollar
    JEL: E2 F0
    Date: 2022–06–21
  40. By: Festus F. Adedoyin (Bournemouth University, United Kingdom); Olawumi A. Osundina (Ogun State, Nigeria); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: Over the years, agriculture has been considered as a panacea for long-term economic growth as believed by the physiocracy school of thought. Aligning this with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (specifically UN-SDG-2 which highlights zero hunger), the present study empirically complements existing studies by exploring the interactions between agriculture, trade openness and oil rents using annual time frequency series data from 1981-2017. A series of analysis is conducted. First, a battery of non-stationarity and stationarity unit root tests are performed; these range from the traditional Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) techniques to the relatively recent Zivot Andrews (ZA) unit root test which accounts for a single structural break to ascertain stationarity properties in the variables under review. Subsequently, the recent Bayer and Hanck (2013) test in conjunction with the Johansen co-integration test were used for the co-integration analysis. Furthermore, to detect the direction of causality, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality test alongside the impulse response function technique shows insightful outcomes. From the empirical results, co-integration is apparent and a long-run equilibrium relationship is traced between the outlined variables over the investigated period. The causality results and impulse response analysis highlight the existence of one-way causality links running from agriculture to trade and from trade to oil rents. These are revealing given the dwindling oil market prices. More insights are elucidated in the conclusion section accordingly.
    Keywords: Agriculture, sustainability; Bayer-Hanck cointegration; Nigeria
    JEL: Q10 O13 C32 C33
    Date: 2022–01
  41. By: Braschke, Franziska; Puhani, Patrick A.
    Abstract: This paper uses Indian EUS-NSSO data on 32 states/union territories and 570 districts for a bi-annual panel with 5 waves to estimate how regional population reacts to asymmetric shocks. These shocks are measured by non-employment rates, unemployment rates, and wages in fixed-effects regressions which effectively use changes in these indicators over time within regions as identifying information. Because we include region and time effects, we interpret regression-adjusted population changes as proxies for regional migration. Comparing the results with those for the United States and the European Union, the most striking difference is that, in India, we do not find any significant reactions to asymmetric non-employment shocks at the state level, only at the district level, whereas the estimates are statistically significant and of similar size for the state/NUTS-1 and district level in both the United States and Europe. We find that Indian workers react to asymmetric regional shocks by adjusting up to a third of a regional non-employment shock through migration within two years. This is somewhat higher than the response to non-employment shocks in the United States and the European Union but somewhat lower than the response to unemployment shocks in these economies. In India, the unemployment rate does not seem to be a reliable measure of regional shocks, at least we find no significant effects for it. However, we find a significant population response to regional wage differentials in India at both the state and district level.
    Keywords: Migration; Population; Regional Convergence; Non-Employment, Unemployment; Wages
    JEL: J61
    Date: 2022–06
  42. By: Lippert, Barbara
    Abstract: The departure of the United Kingdom and the prospect of an independent Scotland seeking membership raise fundamental questions concerning the European Union's future size, geography and polity. Germany's policy on Europe is traditionally guided by the idea that enlargement and deepening are two sides of the same coin. In reality progress on integration has never matched the pace of (eastern) enlargement. The road to the 2009 Lisbon Treaty was rough, and the spectre of failure haunts any dis­cussion of deeper reforms, especially those requiring changes to the treaties by unanimity. The Scottish question has the potential to energise enlargement policy and spur in­ter­nal reforms - to prepare not just for a new 28th member, but for an EU-34.
    Date: 2021
  43. By: Dieter, Heribert
    Abstract: The 2021 G7 Summit of the heads of state and government of the seven leading indus­trial nations (Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) will be held in Cornwall, UK, from 11 to 13 June. As host, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has placed future relations with China at the top of the agenda. That priori­tisation is reflected in the guest list: Australia, India, South Korea and South Africa. The Cornwall G7 has been set up to develop a broad alliance against an increasingly aggressive China. The German government tends to play up China's economic signifi­cance and risks slipping into an outsider role, enabling a totalitarian state for eco­nomic gain.
    Date: 2021
  44. By: Hites Ahir; Nicholas Bloom; Davide Furceri
    Abstract: We construct the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) for an unbalanced panel of 143 individual countries on a quarterly basis from 1952. This is the frequency of the word "uncertainty" in the quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. Globally, the Index spikes around major events like the Gulf War, the Euro debt crisis, the Brexit vote and the COVID pandemic. The level of uncertainty is higher in developing countries but is more synchronized across advanced economies with their tighter trade and financial linkages. In a panel vector autoregressive setting we find that innovations in the WUI foreshadow significant declines in output. This effect is larger and more persistent in countries with lower institutional quality, and in sectors with greater financial constraints.
    Date: 2022–12

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