nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒06‒13
twenty-six papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. A Rising Tide? The Local Incidence of the Second Wave of Globalization By Rowena Gray; Greg C. Wright
  2. Joint foreign ownership and global value chains effects on productivity: A comparison of firms from Poland and Germany. By Sabina Szymczak; Aleksandra Parteka; Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz
  3. Was the KORUS FTA a Horrible Deal? By Hyeongwoo Kim; Madeline H. Kim; Divya Sadana; Jie Zhang
  4. Enhanced Intergenerational Occupational Mobility through Trade Expansion: Evidence from Vietnam By Mitra, Devashish; Pham, Hoang; Ural Marchand, Beyza
  5. Spatial Effects of Foreign Direct Investment Flows on Industrial Performance in Sub-Saharan African Countries By Kirsi Zongo; Mahamadou Diarra
  6. AI, Trade and Creative Destruction: A First Look By Daniel Trefler; Ruiqi Sun
  7. Carbon pricing and industrial competitiveness: Border adjustment or free allocation? By Ritz, R.
  8. Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League By Max Marczinek; Stephan E. Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
  9. Is production in global value chains (GVCs) sustainable? A review of the empirical evidence on social and environmental sustainability in GVCs By Delera, Michele
  10. The war in Ukraine exposes supply tensions on global agricultural markets: Openness to global trade is needed to cope with the crisis By Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna; Prehn, Sören; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Djuric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
  11. The impact of regional integration of trade: Theoretical and empirical review By Ghyzlane El Alaoui; Lalla Zhor Alaoui Omari
  12. Multiproduct Mergers and the Product Mix in Domestic and Foreign Markets By Jackie M.L. Chan; Michael Irlacher; Michael Koch
  13. MERCOSUR and Brazilian's exports between 1997 and 2016 By Carmen de Souza Marcon
  14. Theoretical conceptions of transnational solidarity in working relations By Nussbaum Bitran, Ilana; Dingeldey, Irene; Laudenbach, Franziska
  15. Trade Liberalization and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Indian Census By Azam, Mehtabul
  16. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update By Gianluca Benigno; Julian di Giovanni; Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
  17. Offshoring via vertical FDI in a long-run Kaleckian model By Woodgate, Ryan
  18. Ship-owner Response to Carbon Taxes: Industry and Environmental Implications By Pierre Cariou; Ronald A. Halim; Bradley J. Rickard
  19. Is the American Soft Power a Casualty of the Trade War? By Haichao Fan; Yichuan Hu; Lixin Tang; Shang-Jin Wei
  20. UK labour shortages and immigration: looking at the evidence By Alan Manning
  21. The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures By Gianluca Benigno; Julian di Giovanni; Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
  22. When Immigrants Meet Exporters : A Reassessment of the Immigrant Wage Gap By Marchal, Léa; Ourens, Guzmán; Sabbadini, Giulia
  23. International Risk Sharing for Food Staples By Scott C. Bradford; Digvijay Singh Negi; Bharat Ramaswami
  24. Migration Aspirations and Intentions By Matthias Huber; Till Nikolka; Panu Poutvaara; Ann-Marie Sommerfeld; Silke Uebelmesser
  25. Foundations of the regional integration of the West African economic and monetary union (WAEMU) By Vincent Zoma; Wendpanga Manassé Congo
  26. What's across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects By Jha, Priyaranjan; Neumark, David; Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio

  1. By: Rowena Gray; Greg C. Wright
    Abstract: We estimate the short- and long-run local labor market impacts of the large increase in U.S. imports and exports that occurred over the 1970s. We exploit the sequential opening of overseas shipping container ports over the period, which generated discontinuous changes in U.S. trade ows. We find that the impacts of the export shock on employment, income, and home and rental prices were large, but short-lived, suggesting that U.S. local labor markets equilibrated quickly. The import effects were also large and mostly short-lived, but we find strong persistence in the impact on home and rental prices. We exploit differences in housing supply elasticities across markets to show that this is due to the fact that the housing stock is durable and so does not easily contract, a result with important welfare implications. Overall, we estimate that the net impact of the shock was to raise manufacturing sector employment by 250,000 workers over the decade of the 1970s.
    Keywords: containerization, international trade, globalization, housing durability
    JEL: F14 F16 F66 J21 R31
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Sabina Szymczak (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Aleksandra Parteka (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland)
    Abstract: The study confronts the joint effects of foreign ownership and its involvement in global value chains (GVC) on the productivity performance of firms from a catching-up country (Poland) and a leader economy (Germany). Domestic owned firms are less productive than foreign ones, which is particularly true at low GVC participation levels. However, as GVC involvement increases, the foreign ownership productivity premium decreases, leading to productivity catching up between foreign and domestic owned firms. This mechanism is similar in Poland and Germany. However, in the leader country (Germany), domestically-owned firms' productivity performance is more stable along the GVC distribution.
    Keywords: GVC, FDI, productivity, firms, Amadeus database
    JEL: F23 F21 F61 D24 D22
    Date: 2022–05
  3. By: Hyeongwoo Kim; Madeline H. Kim; Divya Sadana; Jie Zhang
    Abstract: Donald Trump claimed that the free trade agreement with Korea (KORUS FTA) was a horrible deal because the U.S. trade deficit increased substantially after the agreement went into effect in March 2012. However, similar deteriorations occurred during the same period in the U.S. trade balances with most other major trading partners, even though none of them had an FTA with the U.S. We investigate the causal effects of the KORUS FTA on the trade account balance between the U.S. and Korea via the difference-in-differences approach. Our empirical analysis provides strong evidence in favor of Trump's claim, controlling for potential impacts of economic fluctuations over time.
    Keywords: KORUS FTA; Trade Deficit; Difference-in-Differences; Causal Effect
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2022–06
  4. By: Mitra, Devashish (Syracuse University); Pham, Hoang (Oregon State University); Ural Marchand, Beyza (University of Alberta)
    Abstract: Using eight rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys (VHLSSs) spanning 16 years and exploiting the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001 as a large export shock, we investigate the impact of this shock on intergenerational occupational mobility in Vietnam employing a difference-in-differences research design. Our analysis suggests that the BTA has led to substantial upward occupational mobility, allowing both sons and daughters to have better occupations than their parents, with the effects being larger for daughter-mother pairs. The effect is larger in the long-run compared to the short-run. We find evidence that the driving force is an increase in skill demand via gender-biased expansion in export volumes. The effects are largely driven by intersectoral resource reallocation rather than within-sector upgrades. In addition, the BTA induced a higher likelihood of college education for both sons and daughters, but of vocational training only for sons. Overall, the BTA shock accounts for 36% of the overall increase in mobility for both genders. Our results control for Vietnam's own tariff reductions, which do not seem to have any statistically significant impact on mobility.
    Keywords: international trade, export market access, intergenerational mobility
    JEL: F13 F16 F66 J62 O19
    Date: 2022–04
  5. By: Kirsi Zongo (Université Norbert ZONGO de Koudougou); Mahamadou Diarra (Université Norbert ZONGO de Koudougou)
    Abstract: This paper rigorously analyzes the effects of foreign direct investment inflows on the industrial performance in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies. Applying the Durbin spatial method (SDM) on a two-sector model to account for spatial effects, the empirical results show that the higher the capacity of SSA countries to attract foreign investments, the higher is the job-inducing effect and value-added created in the industrial sector, while no technology transfer was induced. This finding highlights the importance for the countries of sub-Saharan Africa to direct foreign direct investment towards strategic sectors where they benefit from comparative advantages and improve the business climate to attract more FDI, a pledge of any industrial development.
    Keywords: Spatial Econometrics,Industrial Performance,Foreign Direct Investment
    Date: 2022–03–23
  6. By: Daniel Trefler; Ruiqi Sun
    Abstract: Artificial Intelligence is a powerful new technology that will likely have large impacts on the size, direction and composition of international trade flows. Yet almost nothing is known empirically about this. One AI-enabled set of services that can be tracked resides in the palm of our hands: the Mobile Apps used by half the world's population. To analyze the impact of AI on international trade in mobile App services we merge 2014-2020 data on international downloads of mobile Apps with data on the AI patents held by each App's parent company. From this we build a measure of AI deployment. We instrument AI deployment using cost-shifters from the theory of comparative advantage: Countries with a large stock of AI expertise will have a comparative advantage producing AI-intensive Apps. We show the following IV results. (1) Bilateral Trade: AI deployment increases App downloads by a factor of six. (2) Variety Effects: AI deployment doubles the number of exported App varieties. (3) Creative Destruction: AI deployment increases creative destruction (entry and exit of Apps) and in 2020 the net effect was an increase in welfare of between 2.5% and 10.6%.
    JEL: F1 F12 F14
    Date: 2022–04
  7. By: Ritz, R.
    Abstract: To mitigate concerns about carbon leakage and industrial competitiveness, cap-and-trade systems have typically relied on the free allocation of carbon allowances to trade-exposed sectors. The European Union’s Green Deal raises the prospect of free allocation being replaced by a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on imported products. This paper provides a simple framework to analyze the competitiveness support provided by these policy instruments. It shows how the rate of carbon leakage can be a “sufficient statistic†to determine the output and profit impacts of the switch to a CBAM. High-leakage sectors will prefer the CBAM while low-leakage sectors will prefer free allocation.
    Keywords: Cap-and-trade, carbon border adjustment, carbon leakage, industrial competitiveness
    JEL: H23 L11 Q54
    Date: 2022–05–27
  8. By: Max Marczinek; Stephan E. Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
    Abstract: How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21,590 city-level trade flows over 190 years, covering 1,425 cities. We use the Sound Toll data, a dataset collected by the Danish crown until 1857 that registered every ship entering or leaving the Baltic Sea, forming one of the most granular and extensive trade data sets. We measure trade flows by counting the number of ships sailing on a particular route in a given year and estimate gravity equations using PPML and an appropriate set of fixed effects. Bilateral gravity estimation results show that trade among former Hansa cities only shows persistence after its dissolution in 1669 for about 30 years, but this persistence is not robust across different regression specifications. However, when we incorporate the flag under which a ship is sailing and consider trilateral trade (where an observation is a combination of origin, destination, and flag), we find that trade persistently exceeds the gravity benchmark: Hansa cities continued to trade more with each other, but only on ships that were owned in another former Hansa city and thus sailed under a Hansa flag. Similar effects are found for trade among former Hansa cities and their trading posts abroad, yet again only conditional on the ship sailing under a former Hanseatic flag. Trade flows among the same pair of origin and destination cities, but under a different flag, do not show this persistence. Our main result shows that the identity of traders persists longer and more strongly than other forms of trading relationships we can measure. Apart from these new quantitative and qualitative insights on the persistence of trade flows, our paper is also of historic interest, as it provides new and detailed information on the speed of decline of trade amongst members of the Hanseatic League.
    Keywords: Hanseatic League, Hansa, gravity
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Delera, Michele
    Abstract: Sustainability in global value chains (GVCs) hinges on the interplay between specialisation, scale, and efficiency effects. This paper reviews different strands of literature which provide evidence on these channels. The evidence that I collect suggests that the sustainability impacts of GVCs are ambiguous. By allowing firms to specialise through the offshoring of relatively more polluting production activities, GVCs are associated to sizeable amounts of carbon leakage. Insofar as firms expand following entry in foreign markets, environmental impacts may also increase. Yet at the same time, participation in GVCs makes firms more energy and emission efficient than their domestic peers through a variety of mechanisms. Thus, GVCs also contribute to dampen emission growth. In terms of social sustainability, GVCs are associated with an income premium for workers and producers alike, although these benefits are not equally distributed.
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Glauben, Thomas; Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna; Prehn, Sören; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Djuric, Ivan; Kuhn, Lena
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine has aggravated existing tensions on the agricultural commodities market. Since late 2021, prices for commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have reached record highs, surpassing even the levels of the global food price crises of more than a decade ago. Now, the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine has sent prices soaring even higher. This has above all affected import-dependent countries in the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, which rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region and high prices are further destabilizing food security in these regions. However, global demand for wheat is expected to be met in the current marketing year since countries such as Australia, India and the USA will increase exports to fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine. It is difficult to predict what will happen beyond this marketing year, as this will be determined by the development of the current conflict in addition to agricultural fundamentals in key supply and demand regions. Global food systems and competitive international trade structures, in particular, are key to dealing with crises and mitigating the risks of food shortages. That way, disruptions in some exporting regions can be compensated for by exports from another. However, this requires greater collaboration in international trade. Any calls to move towards a centrally planned economy or autarky are strongly advised against, as this would only be to the detriment of food security in the Global South.
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Ghyzlane El Alaoui (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Lalla Zhor Alaoui Omari (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl)
    Abstract: Regional integration (RI) is a global phenomenon that has existed for a long time, its ultimate goal is the development of member countries. Several authors have tried to precisely develop this concept but have not been able to produce a universal definition of it. Indeed, its multidimensional character can take several forms, going from a simple creation of economic links between nations and even between individual units within a national economy, to a complex social phenomenon whose economic content is closely related to the political aspect. The same observation can be made with regard to the phases that this regional integration can take, which, according to economic theory, go from a free-trade zone characterized by the abolition of customs tariffs towards mutual trade to total economic integration determined by a common economic policy. The objective of this work is to analyze the theoretical framework of the regional integration through the enumeration of this phenomenon's different types and various conceptions. Also, this article aims to pay particular attention to this integration's impact on bilateral trade, thanks to the theories dealing with integration such as the neoclassical theory of customs unions which aims to study the abolition of customs borders effects on trade, the theory of the new geographical economy which attempts to provide information on the place where certain industries produce goods and on their distribution in space, as well as the theory of the new institutional economy which emphasizes the way in which institutions, new or already existing, can influence the interactions between economic agents, on one hand, and thanks to the empirical studies that have dealt with the question of the integration's impact on trade, on the other hand.
    Abstract: L'intégration régionale (IR) est un phénomène mondial qui ne date pas d'aujourd'hui, son objectif final est le développement des pays membres. Plusieurs auteurs ont tenté de développer ce concept d'une manière précise, mais n'ont pu produire une définition universelle de ce dernier. En effet, son caractère multidimensionnel peut prendre plusieurs formes allant d'une simple création de liens économiques entre nations et même entre unités individuelles au sein d'une économie nationale à un phénomène social complexe dont le contenu économique est en étroite relation avec l'aspect politique. Le même constat est observé pour ce qui est des phases que peut prendre cette intégration régionale et qui vont, selon la théorie économique, d'une zone de libre-échange caractérisée par la suppression des tarifs douaniers vis-à-vis du commerce mutuel à une intégration économique totale déterminée par une politique économique commune. L'objectif de ce travail est d'analyser le cadre théorique de l'intégration régionale à travers l'énumération des différents types et des diverses conceptions de ce phénomène. Aussi, cet article ambitionne de porter une attention particulière à l'impact de cette intégration sur le commerce bilatéral grâce, d'une part, aux théories traitant l'intégration et notamment la théorie néoclassique des unions douanières qui vise à étudier les effets de la suppression des frontières douanières sur le commerce, la théorie de la nouvelle économie géographique qui tente de renseigner sur le lieu où certaines industries produisent leurs biens et sur la distribution de ceux-ci dans l'espace ainsi que la théorie de la nouvelle économie institutionnelle qui met l'accent sur la manière avec laquelle les institutions, nouvelles ou déjà existantes, peuvent influencer les interactions entre les agents économiques, et d'autre part, aux études empiriques qui ont traité la question de l'impact de l'intégration sur le commerce.
    Keywords: institutional economy,regional integration,bilateral trade,customs union theory,geographic economy,économie institutionnelle,économie géographique,théorie des unions douanières,modèle gravitationnel,commerce bilatéral,intégration régionale
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Jackie M.L. Chan; Michael Irlacher; Michael Koch (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of mergers on the product mix of multiproduct firms. Thus, we open the black box of post-merger efficiency improvements to reveal a new margin of adjustment along the product dimension. We analyze horizontal mergers in a theoretical model where oligopolistic firms employ a flexible manufacturing technology and allocate assets between differentiated varieties. After a merger, acquirers drop products from their consolidated domestic product portfolio and reallocate assets towards core varieties. We further demonstrate that such merger-induced efficiency gains imply greater activity in foreign markets. Using detailed Danish register data, we document novel facts regarding mergers and multiproduct firms and find empirical evidence strongly supporting the model’s predictions. Our results show that the number of domestic products of the post-merger acquirer falls relative to the sum of the premerger acquirer and target, that skewness of domestic sales rises towards core products, and that export activity increases.
    Keywords: Multiproduct firms; Horizontal mergers; Flexible manufacturing; Exports; Product mix; Event Study
    JEL: F12 F14 G34 L22 L25
    Date: 2022–04
  13. By: Carmen de Souza Marcon
    Abstract: Brazil fits, along with other Latin American countries, into a "national-dependent development", in which they continue to present various degrees of cultural dependence in relation to the central countries. The country's exports are presented as a strategic focus among macroeconomic policies, in order to overcome the underdevelopment, through the improvement of exports’ quality and economic integration could contribute to this process by breaking out of the vicious circle of dependence on the central countries. The purpose of this research is to analyze the Brazilian exports to MERCOSUR between 1997 and 2016.
    Keywords: Economic bloc; Exports; Technological intensity; Underdevelopment
    JEL: F15 F14 O14 O54
    Date: 2022–06–03
  14. By: Nussbaum Bitran, Ilana; Dingeldey, Irene; Laudenbach, Franziska
    Abstract: Solidarity is probably one of the most undeniable concepts of the social sciences as it is present in every group formation being this a country, a family or a trade union. But globalization has questioned the core of traditional solidarity and has challenged us to find new forms of solidarity that go beyond the borders of nation-states when we focus on the transnational or international level. Being once based on the identity and homogeneity of a group, solidarity must now transcend one specific group with a clear identity, clearly defined borders, constant and close interactions and settled stabilization mechanisms, the four prerequisites Engler (2016) found to be at its basis. Globalization brings two issues into play that break with these four prerequisites. On the one hand, it opens up the possibility to constitute groups beyond a specific geographical place and to grasp global problems such as climate change within transnational groups. On the other hand, globalization reinforces the idea of individualization and a decline of collectively shared identity which threads the classical idea of solidarity. In this paper we look for an enlarged concept of solidarity that can be grasped in different "places" in transnational working relations, taking the European Union as an example.
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: We exploit the pre-reform employment composition of Indian districts and differential tariff cuts across industries introduced by the 1991 trade liberalization to examine the impact of liberalization on human capital accumulation measured by completion of different stages of schooling and aggregate schooling. Using Census 2011 data, we divide age cohorts that attended school before and after liberalization to implement cohort wise difference-in-difference strategy. We also construct a district-level panel using four decennial censuses that covers 1981-2011 and get an alternative difference-in-difference estimate by looking at the pre and post liberalization outcomes. We find that once we allow for the differential state policies, there is no evidence that the Indian trade liberalization has any impact on either aggregate schooling or on the attainment at different stages of schooling. We find suggestive evidence that positive effect of the increased returns to education was mitigated by the increased opportunity cost of schooling.
    Keywords: liberalization, human capital accumulation, difference-in-difference
    JEL: O15 J24 F16 F63
    Date: 2022–05
  16. By: Gianluca Benigno; Julian di Giovanni; Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
    Abstract: Supply chain disruptions continue to be a major challenge as the world economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, recent developments related to geopolitics and the pandemic (particularly in China) could put further strains on global supply chains. In a January post, we first presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), a parsimonious global measure designed to capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators. We revisited our index in March, and today we are launching the GSCPI as a standalone product, with new readings to be published each month. In this post, we review GSCPI readings through April 2022 and briefly discuss the drivers of recent moves in the index.
    Keywords: global supply chain; Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)
    JEL: F0 E31
    Date: 2022–05–18
  17. By: Woodgate, Ryan
    Abstract: This paper develops a two-country Kaleckian model in which "Northern" firms invest a fixed fraction of total investment in foreign affiliates in the low-wage "South" in order to offshore the production of intermediate goods over time and lower overall labour costs. On the back of this setup follows an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of offshoring in the short and long run. Offshoring through vertical FDI is found to lead to a falling wage share and a simultaneously falling price level and rising mark-up in the North, whereas the effect on equilibrium capacity utilisation may be positive or negative. Interestingly, however, regardless of the effect on capacity utilisation and firm profitability, we can show that the structural change implied by offshoring leads to lower rates of capital accumulation and employment in the North relative to the initial (pre-offshoring) values in the short run. The long-run effects on Northern employment and growth, on the other hand, depend crucially on the long-run accumulation rate of the Northern-owned multinational firms. However, the model shows that, if wages endogenously converge during the transition due to higher unemployment in the North and lower unemployment in the South, then the long-run Northern capacity utilisation and accumulation rates are increasingly likely to fall relative to pre-offshoring values. The model appears well suited to shed light on many real-world macroeconomic phenomena, such as rising FDI flows, falling wage shares, rising mark-ups in an era of low inflation, hysteresis, and secular stagnation.
    Keywords: offshoring,foreign direct investment,distribution,stagnation
    JEL: F62 F23 O41 E11 E12
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Pierre Cariou; Ronald A. Halim; Bradley J. Rickard
    Abstract: We consider the effects of a maritime bunker levy on ship-owner profits, trade, and emissions. Standard and augmented gravity models are employed using data from 2016 to estimate the impact of a change in transit time and transit cost on grain and soybean trade flows and on vessel speed. Results for a bunker levy of 50 USD/tonne of fuel, or less, stress that it will not trigger a change in the optimal speed of the vessel which is contrary to most theoretical models that predict an increase in fuel costs will always lead to a reduction in speed and carbon emissions. For markets where the shipowners pass the tax on to final consumers, it is also optimal to keep the same speed (and transit time) as long as the tax is equal to, or less than, 100 USD/tonne. Bunker levies exceeding 100 USD/tonne may be needed to reduce carbon when trade flows are sensitive to trade costs and transport time, as may be the case for many agricultural commodities.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022–05–10
  19. By: Haichao Fan; Yichuan Hu; Lixin Tang; Shang-Jin Wei
    Abstract: The US trade war against China in 2018–2019 can either enhance or diminish the US soft power in China, depending on whether it is recognized as legitimate by Chinese citizens. We study how the viewership of US movies—an important element of the US soft power—is affected by the trade war, utilizing variations across Chinese cities in the exposure to the Trump tariffs. We find a significant reduction in US movie revenue in regions more exposed to the Trump tariffs, but no corresponding reduction in the consumption of non-US movies. This is corroborated by a decline in online search for US movies, US tourist destinations, and US branded sports shoes. The aversion to US movies appears to persist at least to 2021. The effect is somewhat milder for more affluent people.
    JEL: F10 F6
    Date: 2022–04
  20. By: Alan Manning
    Abstract: Can the shortages of workers reported by the UK's food and drink sector be solved by making it easier to hire migrants? How will wages in these sectors change? And is there a conflict between short- and long-term fixes? Alan Manning sets out the trade-offs involved in answering these questions.
    Keywords: immigration, wages, labour, labor, labour shortage, employment, equality
    Date: 2022–02–22
  21. By: Gianluca Benigno; Julian di Giovanni; Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
    Abstract: We propose a novel indicator to capture pressures that arise at the global supply chain level, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). The GSCPI provides a new monitoring tool to gauge global supply chain conditions. We assess the index’s capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United States and the euro area.
    Keywords: global supply chain; inflation; transportation costs
    JEL: F40 F10 F20
    Date: 2022–05–01
  22. By: Marchal, Léa; Ourens, Guzmán (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Sabbadini, Giulia
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Scott C. Bradford (Brigham Young University); Digvijay Singh Negi (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Bharat Ramaswami (Ashoka University)
    Abstract: The global output of food staples is far more stable than most individual nations’ outputs, but does this lead to consumption risk sharing? This paper applies tools from the risk sharing literature to address this question for rice, wheat, and maize, using a multilateral risk sharing model that, unlike the canonical model, accounts for trade costs. While the data show that optimal risk sharing does not occur, the wheat market comes closest to the idealized model. Our analysis also implies that both trade and storage play significant roles in smoothing domestic output shocks. Further, we find that risk sharing tends to rise with a nation’s income.
    Keywords: food markets; risk sharing; international trade; supply shocks
    Date: 2022–02–21
  24. By: Matthias Huber; Till Nikolka; Panu Poutvaara; Ann-Marie Sommerfeld; Silke Uebelmesser
    Abstract: We carried out two multinational surveys to analyze aspirations and intentions to emigrate, and how these are linked to each other. One survey covered language course participants in 14 countries, and another students in 6 countries. We identify two groups that have been largely neglected in previous research on migration aspirations and intentions: those who intend to migrate permanently without aspirations to do so and those who intend to migrate temporarily. Analyzing main motivations to emigrate shows that discrepancy among women is driven mainly by family, and among men by work and studies.
    Keywords: international migration, migration choice, temporary migration, permanent migration, aspirations, intentions, multinational survey
    JEL: F22 D91 J16
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Vincent Zoma (UJZK - Université Joseph Ki-Zerbo [Ouagadougou]); Wendpanga Manassé Congo (UTS - Université Thomas Sankara)
    Abstract: After the independences, most of the countries of Africa in general and West Africa specially opted to unite within the framework of regional integration. It is in this context that the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) was created in 1994. Moreover, beyond the African continent or even on this continent, there is a variable geometry in the process of regional integration of setting up. Thus, the present article, based on a documentary research aims to surround the foundations or the main logics which favored the creation of the WAEMU which wants to be a space of regional integration. Overall, it emerges from this investigation that the establishment of this regional integration institution is based on historical, political and economic foundations linked to endogenous factors in the region and exogenous factors related to the influence of the former colonial power and especially global economic challenges.
    Abstract: Aux lendemains des années des indépendances, la pupart des pays de l'Afrique en general et de l'Afrique de l'Ouest en particulier a opté de s'unir dans le cadre de l'intégration régioanle. C'est dans ce contexte que l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) a été créé en 1994. Par ailleurs, au délà du continent africain ou même sur ce continent, il existe une géometrie variable dans le processus de mise en place de l'intégration régionale. Ainsi, le present article, basé sur une recherche documentaise vise à cerner les fondements ou les principales logiques qui ont favorisé la création de l'UEMOA qui se veut un espace d'intégration régionale. Il ressort globalement de cette investiagtion, que la mise en place de cette institution d'intégration régionale repose sur des fondements à la fois historiques, politiques et qu'économiques liés à des facteurs endogènes de la région et exogènes liés à l'influence de l'ancienne puissance coloniale et surtout des defis économiques d'ordre mondial.
    Keywords: WAEMU,West Africa,regional integration,Intégration régionale,Afrique de l’Ouest,UEMOA
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Jha, Priyaranjan (CESifo); Neumark, David (University of California, Irvine); Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio (CESifo)
    Abstract: Dube, Lester, and Reich (2010) argue that state-level minimum wage variation can be correlated with economic shocks, generating spurious evidence that higher minimum wages reduce employment. Using minimum wage variation within contiguous county pairs that share a state border, they find no relationship between minimum wages and employment in the U.S. restaurant industry. We show that this finding hinges critically on using cross-border counties to define local economic areas with which to control for economic shocks that are potentially correlated with minimum wage changes. We use, instead, multi-state commuting zones, which provide superior definitions of local economic areas. Using the same within-local area research design—but within cross-border commuting zones—we find a robust negative relationship between minimum wages and employment.
    Keywords: minimum wage, employment, commuting zones
    JEL: J23 J38
    Date: 2022–05

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