nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒05‒09
forty-one papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States By Holger Breinlich; Elsa Leromain; Dennis Novy; Thomas Sampson
  2. Organizational Hierarchies and Export Destinations By Irene Brambilla; Andrés Cesar; Guillermo Falcone; Guido Porto
  3. Brexit and trade on the island of Ireland By Martina Lawless
  4. Firm-to-Firm Trade: Imports, Exports, and the Labor Market By Jonathan Eaton; Samuel Kortum; Francis Kramarz
  5. Expecting Brexit By Swati Dhingra; Thomas Sampson
  6. Nepal’s elusive quest for export success meets LDC graduation By Paras Kharel
  7. Knowledge flows and global value chains By Marta Bisztray; Niclas Poitiers
  8. Guide to OECD TiVA Indicators, 2021 edition By Joaquim Martins Guilhoto; Colin Webb; Norihiko Yamano
  9. The Extraterritorial Effects of Sanctions By Ohyun Kwon; Constantinos Syropoulos; Yoto V. Yotov; Yoto V. Yotov
  10. How important are Russia's external economic links? By Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
  11. Tasks, Occupations, and Slowbalization: On the Limits of Fragmentation By Steven Brakman; Charles van Marrewijk
  12. Does an Increase in the Cost of Imported Inputs Hurt Exports? Evidence from Firms' Network of Foreign Suppliers By Santiago Camara
  13. Measuring the Effects and Evolution of Non-tariff Measures By Yuting Gao
  14. How Resilient Was Trade to Covid-19? By Maria Bas; Ana Margarida Fernandes; Caroline Paunov
  16. Infrastructure and sectoral FDI in China: an empirical analysis By Faisal Mehmood; Muhammad Atique; Wang Bing; Hameed Khan; Henna Henna
  17. Lobbying for Trade Liberalization and its Policy Influence By Yuting Gao
  19. Export Capacity Constraints and Distortions By Xiao Feng; Yongjin Wang; Laixun Zhao
  20. Exposure to FDI and attitudes towards multinational enterprises: do M&A impact? By Franco, Chiara; Marin, Giovanni; Pietrovito, Filomena
  21. Covid-19, international agricultural economy and animal sectors: the case of China, the United States and the EU By Vincent Chatellier; Jean-Marc Chaumet; Thierry Pouch
  22. Reputation of Quality in International Trade: Evidence from Consumer Product Recalls By Zhong, Jiatong
  23. The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War By James Lake; Jun Nie
  25. Does an increase in the cost of imported inputs hurt exports? Evidence from firms' network of foreign suppliers By Santiago Camara
  26. Extraterritorial Trade Sanctions: Theory and Application to the US-Iran-EU Conflict By Eckhard Janeba
  27. Import Competition and Gender Differences in Labor Reallocation By Hani Mansour; Pamela Medina; Andrea Velásquez
  28. 코로나19가 무역에 미치는 영향 (Analysis of Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Trade) By Park, Soon Chan
  29. Does Immigration Affect Wages? A Meta-Analysis By Amandine Aubry; Jérôme Héricourt; Léa Marchal; Clément Nedoncelle
  31. FDI, technology & knowledge transfer from Nordic to Baltic countries By Arūnas Burinskas; Rasmus Holmen; Manuela Tvaronavičienė; Agnė Šimelytė; Kristina Razminienė
  32. Promotion of digital trade and responses of East Asian countries — Necessity of multi-pillar approaches with WTO and FTAs as the central pillars (Japanese) By NAKATOMI Michitaka
  33. India’s self-sufficiency policies for pulses and their implications for Myanmar By Roy, Devesh; Ajmani, Manmeet; Boss, Ruchira; Pradhan, Mamata; Laitha, Andrew
  34. Trade Corridors in the Caspian Region: Present and Future By Kalyuzhnova, Yelena; Pomfret, Richard
  35. Do Labels Polarise? Theory and Evidence from the Brexit Referendum By Su-Min; Alexandru
  36. Middle Corridor—Policy Development and Trade Potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route By Kenderdine, Tristan; Bucsky, Peter
  37. An Integrated and Smart ASEAN: Overcoming Adversities and Achieving Sustainable and Inclusive Growth By Park, Cyn-young; Yeung, Bernard
  38. Legalization and Long-Term Outcomes of Immigrant Workers By Deiana, Claudio; Giua, Ludovica; Nistico, Roberto
  39. The Social Integration of International Migrants: Evidence from the Networks of Syrians in Germany By Michael Bailey; Drew Johnston; Martin Koenen; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
  40. Cutting through the Value Chain: The Long-Run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West By Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp
  41. The world market for horticultural lighting By Aurelio Volpe; Sara Banfi

  1. By: Holger Breinlich; Elsa Leromain; Dennis Novy; Thomas Sampson
    Abstract: How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce industry-level exports by cutting domestic production. We show that this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). But there was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our empirical results to calibrate the strength of scale economies in a quantitative trade model. Counterfactual analysis implies that while PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries because of the export destruction effect. On aggregate, the US and China both gain from PNTR, but the gains are larger for China.
    Keywords: trade policy, import liberalization, comparative advantage, scale economies, China shock
    JEL: F12 F13 F15
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Irene Brambilla (IIE-FCE-UNLP); Andrés Cesar (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Guido Porto (IIE-FCE-UNLP)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new link relating export destinations and the organization of the firm. We claim that the production of higher-quality varieties exported to rich destinations induces firms to re-structure their production processes, becoming organizationally more complex. We introduce a theoretical model with these features and we explore the mechanisms using a panel of Chilean manufacturing plants. Our identification strategy relies on falling tariffs on Chilean products across destinations caused by the signature of Free Trade Agreements with high-income countries (the European Union, the United States, and South Korea). We find that Chilean plants that were induced by these tariff reductions to start exporting to high-income destinations increased the number of hierarchical layers and upgraded the quality of their products. This involved the addition of qualified supervisors that facilitated the provision of higher product quality. These effects took place at new high-income exporting firms.
    JEL: F14 F16 J24
    Date: 2022–05
  3. By: Martina Lawless (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland - Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
    Abstract: After decades of expansion and deepening integration in Europe, the referendum in the United Kingdom in June 2016 to leave the European Union was an unprecedented event. Amongst the many issues to be negotiated in unravelling membership, the withdrawal process has been dominated by the implications for the island of Ireland. Northern Ireland has been to the forefront as the location of the new border between the EU and a non-member state. While much of the focus has been on the political implications, this paper looks at the potential effects of Brexit on Ireland and Northern Ireland from an economic perspective. The current patterns of cross-border trade are examined and the potential impacts of Brexit discussed, depending on the extent to which it changes the economic relationship between the UK and EU and hence in the immediate neighbourhood of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
    Keywords: Brexit,Free trade agreements,Irish border
    Date: 2020–09
  4. By: Jonathan Eaton; Samuel Kortum; Francis Kramarz
    Abstract: Customs data reveal heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers. A key insight is how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm-to-firm matching that builds on this insight to separate the roles of iceberg costs and matching frictions in gravity. In the cross section, we find matching frictions as important as iceberg costs in impeding trade, and more sensitive to distance. Because domestic and imported intermediates compete directly with labor in performing production tasks, our model also fits the heterogeneity of labor shares across French producers. Applying the framework to the 2004 expansion of the European Union, reduced iceberg costs and reduced matching frictions contributed equally to the increase in French exports to the new members. While workers benefited overall, those competing most directly with imports gained less, even losing in some countries entering the EU.
    JEL: F12 F14 F16
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Swati Dhingra; Thomas Sampson
    Abstract: The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK’s membership of the world’s deepest economic integration agreement. This paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Brexit referendum changed expectations about future UK-EU relations. Studying its consequences provides new insights regarding the economic impacts of news and uncertainty shocks. Voting for Brexit had large negative effects on the UK economy between 2016 and 2019, leading to higher import and consumer prices, lower investment, and slower real wage and GDP growth. However, at the aggregate level, there was little or no trade diversion away from the EU, implying that many of the anticipated long-run effects of Brexit did not materialize before the new UK-EU trade relationship came into force in 2021.
    Keywords: Brexit, trade policy, uncertainty, exchange rates
    JEL: E22 E65 F13 F15 F16 F31 F40
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment)
    Abstract: Nepal is hurtling towards graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category with a low per capita income and meagre exports. This paper analyses the implications of graduation for Nepal's exports, and suggests measures that Nepal government should take to mitigate the adverse effects. It argues that export success has eluded Nepal despite trade preferences, and graduation could make it even more elusive. The fact that the prospect of tapping the country's export potential is partly predicated on preferential tariffs implies much higher export losses than projected by standard modelling exercises. Not factoring in changes in rules of origin in preference-granting countries adds to the downward bias of existing estimates. All this underlines the urgency of building productive capacity, alleviating supply-side constraints, and strengthening factors of non-price competitiveness.
    Keywords: LDC graduation, trade policy, export potential, export competitiveness, trade costs, coordination failure, policy space institutions, coordination failure
    JEL: F02 F12 F13 F14 F63 O2
    Date: 2021–12
  7. By: Marta Bisztray; Niclas Poitiers
    Abstract: This Working Paper is an output from the MICROPROD project, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 822390 The organisation of global value chains via supplier links and within business groups shapes global trade and forms a major channel through which knowledge is disseminated between countries. Global value chains are also an important channel through which economic shocks propagate. At...
    Date: 2022–04
  8. By: Joaquim Martins Guilhoto (OECD); Colin Webb (OECD); Norihiko Yamano (OECD)
    Abstract: The goods and services we buy are composed of inputs from various countries around the world. However, the flows of goods and services within these global production chains are not always reflected in conventional measures of international trade. The Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) indicators address this issue by considering the value added by each country in the production of goods and services that are consumed worldwide.This guide presents the TiVA indicators published by OECD. The latest indicators were generated using the 2021 release of the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables which cover the period 1995 to 2018. The indicators are provided for 66 economies and the rest of the world (including all OECD, European Union, ASEAN and G20 countries) and a selection of region aggregates and, for 45 unique industries and related aggregates (such as total manufactures and total services) based on the ISIC Rev. 4 classification.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains, Input-Output, Trade in Value Added
    JEL: F14 F15 F62 R15
    Date: 2022–04–28
  9. By: Ohyun Kwon; Constantinos Syropoulos; Yoto V. Yotov; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: We provide quantitative evidence that the primary effects of economic sanctions on trade and welfare are accompanied by strong extraterritorial effects — estimates of the former effects may be significantly biased if the latter effects are not taken into account. Furthermore, while the extraterritorial burden of sanctions on trade falls primarily on target countries, the corresponding effect on trade among senders and third countries is positive. General equilibrium analysis suggests that, for targets, the welfare losses due to extraterritorial effects are large and may exceed the losses due to reduced trade with senders. For senders, the gains from increased trade with third countries may outweigh the losses from decreased trade with targets to generate net welfare gains. The welfare effects on third countries are significant, too. However, the direction and size of these effects depend on three key factors: the size of the target, the size of the sender, and the economic ties among the target, the sender, and third countries.
    Keywords: economic sanctions, primary effects, extraterritorial effects, trade, welfare
    JEL: F14 F51 Q17
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli
    Abstract: In this note, we review recent data concerning Russia's economic integration with other countries. We first analyze the general picture of Russia's economic integration with the rest of the world and the importance of foreign economic relations for the country. We then turn to China, an increasingly significant economic partner for Russia. The European Union remains Russia's most important trading partner and is by far the most important source of foreign direct investment to Russia as well as sources of other financing. China's importance to Russia has also increased, especially with respect to merchandise trade.
    Keywords: Russia,economic integration,trade,investment
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Steven Brakman; Charles van Marrewijk
    Abstract: Following the trade collapse in 2009, Globalization has recovered but the growth rate slowed down compared to the preceding period of Hyper Globalization. The persistence of this slowdown is remarkable. We argue that increased awareness of firms for the costs of involvement in global supply chains can explain the recent developments in trade flows. We formalize the existence, length, and consequences of changes in fragmentation cost along global supply chains. From a theoretical point of view, the model endogenizes production fragmentation, allowing for multiple production stages in multiple countries, while remaining tractable. From an empirical point of view, the model explains both, the period of Hyper Globalization and the subsequent Slowbalization in terms of changing fragmentation costs along global supply chains. The model is also consistent with developments regarding labor market polarization associated with modern globalization: the labor market position of medium-skilled workers in advanced countries has deteriorated relative to high- and low- skilled workers, which can be understood by changing global supply chains. Our model implies, however, that even with zero fragmentation costs the demand for certain occupations does not fall to zero for any country.
    Keywords: Hyper Globalization, Slowbalization, global supply chains
    JEL: F10 F12
    Date: 2022
  12. By: Santiago Camara (Northwestern University/RedNIE)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between changes in the cost of imported inputs and export performance using a novel dataset from Argentina which identifies domestic firms' network of foreign suppliers. To guide my empirical strategy, I construct a heterogeneous firm model subject to quality choice and costly to adjust linkages with foreign suppliers. The model predicts the impact of an increase in the cost of imported inputs to be increasing in the adjustments cost of supplier linkages and in the quality of the product exported. I take the model to the data by constructing firm-specific shocks using a shift-share analysis which exploits firms' lagged exposure to foreign suppliers and finely defined import price shifts. Evidence suggests the presence of significant adjustment cost in firms' foreign linkages and strong complementarities between imported inputs and export performance, particularly of high-quality products.
    Keywords: Export Dynamics, International trade, Search and matching, Heterogeneous firms, Quality choice, Firm-to-firm linkages
    Date: 2022–03
  13. By: Yuting Gao (Indiana University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: How do Non-tariff Measures (NTMs) affect trade flows, and how do these effects evolve over time? I estimate and compare the trade effects for 6 types of NTMs over 15 years. I construct a dataset of import flows and trade policies for 110 countries and 96 HS2 level products. I use poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood to estimate structural gravity model during 2000-2015. The main results are that when measured by ad valorem equivalents, both implementation effects and marginal effects of NTMs converge to 0 over time. On the one hand, this pattern is good for countries seeking to impose more NTMs out of non-protective purpose, because they will face less distortions brought by the NTMs on import flows. On the other hand, this pattern hurts the countries seeking to impose more protective measures, because the NTMs are losing the power to effectively restrict imports.
    Keywords: non-tariff measures, ad valorem equivalents, gravity model
    Date: 2022–04
  14. By: Maria Bas; Ana Margarida Fernandes; Caroline Paunov
    Abstract: We examine the supply-side characteristics - unskilled labor, imported input intensity, dependence on inputs from China, production complexity - that determine different potential vulnerabilities of traded products to the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on monthly exports at the product level by all countries to the United States, Japan, and all 27 European Union countries from January 2018 to December 2020, we estimate a difference-in-differences specification of the COVID-19 incidence (deaths per capita) mediated by product vulnerabilities. We account for the precise lag between when the COVID-19 shock hit the exporting country and when exports reach their destination country relying on the products’ type of transportation and distance between exporter and importer countries. Higher reliance on foreign inputs, on China as input supplier, on unskilled labor and a lower degree of complexity negatively affected exports as a result of this shock.
    Keywords: exports, vulnerability, resilience, Covid-19, shock, high-frequency data
    JEL: F14 F61 D20
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Nicholas M. Odhiambo; Talknice Saungweme
    Abstract: In this study, the relationship between tourism development and trade in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries is examined during the period 1995-2019. Three proxies of trade are used, namely the total trade, total exports, and total imports of goods and services to examine this linkage, thereby leading to three separate model specifications. A wide range of modern econometric techniques were also employed to examine the relationship between the various proxies of trade and tourist arrivals. These include i) cross-sectional dependence tests based on Breusch-Pagan (1980) LM, Pesaran (2004) scaled LM, Baltagi et al. (2012) bias-corrected scaled LM, and Pesaran (2004) CD; ii) a slope homogeneity test based on Pesaran and Yamagata (2008); iii) an ECM panel cointegration test based on Westerlund (2007); and iv) a heterogeneous panel causality model based on Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), among others. Using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), the study found that, overall, international tourism has a positive and significant impact on trade in SSA countries. This finding is also corroborated by the heterogeneous Granger causality test, which found a distinct unidirectional causal flow from international tourism arrivals to trade. The study, therefore, recommends that SSA countries should implement policies aimed at promoting international tourism in order to increase their international trade and boost their overall trade balance.
  16. By: Faisal Mehmood (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Muhammad Atique (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Wang Bing (HUST - Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan]); Hameed Khan (KUST - Kohat University of Science and Technology); Henna Henna (KUST - Kohat University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: In this paper, for the first time, we investigate the relationship between infrastructure and sectoral distribution of FDI inflow in China. We use the Estimating Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) procedures of estimation. To unmask the shortcomings in the previous literature, we use a composite index of infrastructure with more than 30 indicators. The results show that there is a long-run relationship between sectoral FDI and infrastructure. A bidirectional causal relationship is confirmed by using VECM. However, we find unidirectional causality between the primary sector's FDI and infrastructure, and it is running from infrastructure to primary sector FDI. The inclusion of control variables, e.g., institutional quality, trade openness, and domestic investment, is robust in our analysis. The positive role of infrastructure in the sectoral distribution of FDI inflows is of utmost importance for policymakers and Chinese-government. Several policy implications are given in our study.
    Keywords: Infrastructure,foreign direct investment,Estimating Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
    Date: 2021–06–30
  17. By: Yuting Gao (Indiana University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Lobbying activities are important to the promotion of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). I quantify the influence of lobbying on ratification probability of FTA by constructing a novel dataset containing all lobbying activities about FTAs in the United States. I setup a contest model of lobbying where heterogeneous players choose lobbying expenditures to affect the ratification probability of FTAs. I use structural gravity estimation to predict the trade profit gains from FTAs and use Maximum Likelihood estimation to back out the ratification probabilities. Results show that lobbying expenditures in manufacturing sector increase ratification probability by 21 percentage points on average, and the expected gains from lobbying are five times of the lobbying expenditures on average. Additionally, free riding lowers lobbying expenditures by 40%. These findings highlight the effects of lobbying on the formation of international agreements.
    Keywords: lobbying, free trade agreement, trade liberalization, contest model
    Date: 2022–04
  18. By: Nicholas M. Odhiambo
    Abstract: In this paper, the causal relationship between trade openness and energy consumption in 20 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1990-2019 is examined. Trade openness is derived from three components, namely total trade, total exports, and total imports, all expressed as a percentage of GDP. In order to account for the omission-of-variable bias, economic growth and urbanisation have been incorporated as intermittent variables between the various components of trade openness and energy consumption. The study first examines the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries employed using four cross-sectional dependence tests. Thereafter, both the first- and second-generation unit root tests are used to examine the order of integration. In addition, three panel cointegration tests are used to examine the cointegration among the variables included in the study. Using a multivariate ECM-based panel Granger-causality test, the study found that there is a unidirectional causal flow from trade openness to energy consumption, but only when the exports are used as a proxy for trade openness. When total trade and total imports are used as proxies, no causality is found to exist between trade openness and energy consumption in either direction, irrespective of whether the causality test is conducted in the short run or in the long run. This finding, though contrary to some of the previous studies, is not surprising given the disparity in trade balance and energy challenges facing many SSA countries.
  19. By: Xiao Feng (School of Economics, Nankai University, CHINA); Yongjin Wang (School of Economics, Nankai University, CHINA); Laixun Zhao (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, JAPAN)
    Abstract: We investigate how export capacity constraints (ECCs) affect resource misallocation and aggregate productivity by distorting the firm’s export mode. Using unique datasets in China, we first document a number of observed patterns for the socalled “dual-channel exporters”, which export only a fraction of their products directly with the rest via intermediaries. We show that introducing capacity constraints reconciles the theory with the observed patterns in the data. Our quantitative exercise suggests that removal of the ECCs leads to gains of 2.27% in aggregate productivity, 4.97% in total exports and 0.37% in national welfare.
    Keywords: Dual-channel exporters; Capacity constraint; Distortion; Resource misallocation
    JEL: F10 O18
    Date: 2022–04
  20. By: Franco, Chiara; Marin, Giovanni; Pietrovito, Filomena
    Abstract: While the formation of preferences towards flows of trade has been quite deeply investigated, the effect of the presence of (multinational enterprises) MNE on local business and their distributional effects have scantly been taken into consideration. The aim of the paper is that of investigating the role of MNE penetration for the formation of individual's preferences towards MNE. We combine individual's information on attitudes and perceptions of MNE from the International Social Survey Programme (2003 and 2013) with an indicator of occupational exposure to MNE based on data on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) from Securities Data Company Platinum database (Thomson Financial). Using an ordered probit model, we find that the role of MNE penetration is crucial to understand the way people think about MNE, even controlling for individual socioeconomic characteristics and for the presence of MNE in the occupation-country. We additionally find that this impact is particularly relevant for people more inclined to the presence of immigrants in their country and for residents in countries with high levels of employment protection.
    Keywords: Exposure to FDI, Individual attitude, Survey data, Ordered probit
    JEL: F20 F23
    Date: 2022–04–26
  21. By: Vincent Chatellier (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Marc Chaumet (IDELE - Institut de l'élevage); Thierry Pouch (APCA - Assemblée Permanente des Chambres d'Agriculture, URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne)
    Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic is a major global event. A reflection on the first implications of this sanitary crisis for the world agricultural economy and the animal sectors of three geographical areas is proposed in this article. The agri-food systems have been strongly affected by this crisis, whose global economic impacts (a 3.5 % drop in world gross domestic product and a 5.3 % drop in international trade in goods between 2019 and 2020) are affecting the purchasing power of final consumers. However, they have resisted the crisis well, both in terms of supply (stability or slight growth in the volumes of meat and milk produced on a global scale) and trade. In 2021, the sharp rise in international prices for agricultural products and the rapid resumption of economic growth, particularly in the three zones more specifically studied here (China, the United States and the European Union), suggest that agriculture should remain under pressure from sustained world demand. More than Covid-19, the impact of African swine fever in China has had a major impact on international meat trade flows for several years. In addition, the growing Chinese appetite for dairy products is playing a central role in the development of international dairy markets, to the benefit of exporting areas including the EU and the US.
    Abstract: La pandémie de Covid-19 est un évènement mondial majeur. Une réflexion sur les premières implications de cette crise sanitaire pour l'économie agricole mondiale et les filières animales est proposée dans le cadre de cet article. Les secteurs agricole et agroalimentaire ont été fortement concernés par cette crise dont les impacts économiques globaux (baisse de 3,5 % du produit intérieur brut mondial et de 5,3 % des échanges internationaux de marchandises entre 2019 et 2020) affectent le pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs finaux. Ils ont cependant bien résisté à la crise, tant au niveau de l'offre (stabilité ou légère croissance des volumes produits de viandes et de lait à l'échelle mondiale) que du commerce. En 2021, la forte hausse des prix internationaux des produits agricoles et la reprise rapide de la croissance économique, notamment dans les trois zones plus spécifiquement étudiées ici (Chine, États-Unis et Union européenne), suggèrent que l'agriculture devrait rester sous la pression d'une demande mondiale soutenue. Plus que la Covid-19, l'impact de la peste porcine africaine en Chine a eu, depuis plusieurs années, des répercussions majeures sur les courants d'échanges internationaux de viandes. De plus, l'appétit croissant des chinois pour les produits laitiers joue un rôle central dans le développement des marchés laitiers internationaux, au bénéfice des zones exportatrices dont l'Union européenne et les États-Unis.
    Keywords: Agricultural economy,EU,China,USA,Covid-19,Agriculture,Economie rurale,UE,Chine,Etats-Unis
    Date: 2022
  22. By: Zhong, Jiatong (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of exporting countries' reputations for product quality on aggregate trade flows. Using a Bayesian learning model, I construct a measure of exporter reputation in which consumers internalize product recalls as signals of poor quality. Structural estimation of the model finds that reputation is important and especially impactful for toys. The market share elasticity of an exporter's reputation is 2.396 for toys. Improving reputation can increase export value, but reputational change is sluggish. Counterfactual exercises confirm that quality inspection institutions are welfare improving.
    Keywords: International trade; reputation; Bayesian learning; quality uncertainty; product recalls
    JEL: D83 F14 L15
    Date: 2022–03–28
  23. By: James Lake; Jun Nie
    Abstract: The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the trade war: US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support but foreign retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump crossing the recount thresholds in Georgia and Wisconsin. These effects cross political and racial lines, suggesting the mechanism operates through the impact on local economies rather than political polarization. Even more important politically, voters abandoned Trump in counties with large expansions of health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this anti-Trump effect, Trump would have been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wisconsin by a few thousand votes.
    Keywords: 2020 US Presidential election, Trump, Affordable Care Act, health insurance, trade war, tariffs, retaliation
    JEL: D72 F13 F14 I18
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Nicholas M. Odhiambo
    Abstract: Purpose – This study examines the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1980 to 2017. The study also examines whether the causality between these two macroeconomic variables depends on the countries’ stage of development as proxied by their per capita income. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a panel cointegration test and panel Granger-causality model to examine the link between exports and growth. The study also incorporates external debt as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between exports and economic growth, thereby creating a dynamic multivariate panel Granger-causality model. Findings – Although the study found the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth, the study failed to find any export-led growth response in both low-income and middle-income countries. Instead, the study found evidence of a bidirectional causality and a neutrality response in middle-income and low-income countries, respectively. The study, therefore, concludes that the benefits of an export-led growth hypothesis may have been oversold, and that the strategy may not be desirable to some low-income developing countries. Practical implications – These findings have important policy implications as they indicate that the causality between exports and economic growth in SSA countries varies with the countries’ stage of development. Consistent with the contemporary literature, the study cautions low-income SSA countries against over-relying on an export-led growth strategy to achieve a sustained growth path as no causality between exports and economic growth has been found to exist in those countries. Instead, such countries should consider pursuing new growth strategies by building the domestic demand side of their economies alongside their export promotion strategies in order to expand the real sector of their economies. For middle-income countries, the study recommends that both export promotion strategies and pro-growth policies should be intensified as economic growth and exports have been found to reinforce each other in those countries. Originality/value – Unlike the previous studies, the current study disaggregated the full sample of SSA countries into two subsets – one comprising of low-income countries and the other consisting of middle-income countries. In addition, the study uses a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the emission-of-variable bias. To our knowledge, this may be the first study of its kind in recent years to examine in detail the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in SSA countries using an ECM-based multivariate panel Granger-causality model.
  25. By: Santiago Camara
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between changes in the cost of imported inputs and export performance using a novel dataset from Argentina which identifies domestic firms' network of foreign suppliers. To guide my empirical strategy, I construct a heterogeneous firm model subject to quality choice and frictions in the market for foreign supplier. The model predicts that the impact of an increase in the cost of imported inputs to be increasing in the adjustments costs of supplier linkages and in the quality of the product exported. I take the model to the data by constructing firm-specific shocks using a shift-share analysis which exploits firms' lagged exposure to foreign suppliers and finely defined import price shifts. Evidence suggests the presence of significant adjustment cost in firms' foreign supplier linkages and strong complementarities between imported inputs and export performance, particularly of high-quality products.
    Date: 2022–02
  26. By: Eckhard Janeba
    Abstract: Under extraterritorial sanctions the sanctioning country extends its policies to trade of third countries with the sanctioned country. A prominent example is former US President Trump’s decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multilateral agreement with Iran. The decision led to a shutdown of EU trade with Iran. In this paper, I develop a game-theoretic model to explain the emergence of extraterritorial sanctions. Such trade sanctions i) do not arise when the harmful activity of the sanctioned country (“build a nuclear bomb”) is verifiable even if monetary transfers are ruled out, but ii) emerge if a second activity (“sponsor international terrorism”) is not verifiable, and the sanctioning countries differ in their gains from trade with the sanctioned country, their harm from the non-verifiable, and their reputational cost from abandoning the international economic order. In the context of the US-Iran-EU conflict, I argue that the oil and gas fracking boom in the US together with former President Trump’s ignorance of his international reputation are key factors in the emergence of extraterritorial trade sanctions.
    Keywords: international trade, sanctions, extraterritorial sanctions, US-Iran conflict
    JEL: F02 F51 K33
    Date: 2022
  27. By: Hani Mansour; Pamela Medina; Andrea Velásquez
    Abstract: We study gender differences in the labor market reallocation of Peruvian workers in response to trade liberalization. The empirical strategy relies on variation in import competition across local labor markets based on their industrial composition before China entered the global market in 2001. In contrast to much of the existing literature, we find that import competition did not have persistent negative employment effects on men or led them to sort into the non-tradable or informal sectors. The adverse effects on the employment of low-educated women in the tradable sector, however, persist over time leading them to sort into the non-tradable sector or out of the labor force. The results are consistent with a mechanism in which gender occupational and industrial segregation leads to a widening of the gender gap in employment.
    Keywords: import competition, female employment, gender discrimination
    JEL: E24 F14 J16 J71
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Park, Soon Chan (Kongju National University)
    Abstract: 위기에 대한 선행 연구는 금융 또는 정치적 위기가 경제성장 및 실업에 미치는 파급효과에 집중되어 있었고, 팬데믹이 무역에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구는 상대적으로 드물었다. 본 연구는 코로나19가 수출에 미치는 영향, 그리고 사스·메르스 등 코로나19 이전에 발생했던 팬데믹이 무역에 미치는 동태적 파급효과를 분석한다. 이에 기초하여 팬데믹 심각성으로 인한 경제성과의 차이를 살펴보고 방역의 경제적 의미를 포함하여 다양한 정책적 시사점을 도출한다. Although many studies have documented that financial and political crises are associated with severe recessions, little attention has been paid to pandemic crises. Furthermore, they focus on estimating the effect of the crises on economic growth and unemployment, but not on trade. With deepening global value chains, the growth of trade exceeds that of GDP, and countries are increasingly exposed to foreign risks or shocks. International trade therefore is no more derived transactions but a crucial factor driving economic growth. This paper makes progress understanding the economic effects of the Covid-19 by investigating the impact of the previous 21-century pandemics and the Covid-19 on trade. To study how long the negative effects of the pandemics persist, we also estimate the effect of these health crises on trade, both in the onset year of the crisis as well as the dynamic effects over time. An another important question on the economic effects of the pandemics is whether pandemics are demand shocks or supply shocks. This is a fundamental question for both economists and policymakers, because it helps design effective policy responses to future health crises. Yet there were few evidence-based arguments based on similar events in the past. (the rest omitted)
    Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; Global Trade; Economic Effects
    Date: 2021–12–30
  29. By: Amandine Aubry (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Jérôme Héricourt (IESEG School of Management Lille); Léa Marchal (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Clément Nedoncelle (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Does immigration affect wages? No decisive answer has been provided until now. We propose an up-to-date meta-analysis of the literature investigating this question, based on 2,146 es- timates from 64 studies published between 1972 and 2019. We find that, on average, the literature reports a negative and close to zero effect of immigration on native wages. This result holds for both low/medium-skilled and high-skilled native individuals. This average effect, however, hides a large heterogeneity across studies. Variation across estimates can be explained by the presence of structural heterogeneity such as the country of analysis or the use of micro-level data, as well as to heterogeneity in research designs such as the use of difference-in-differences. Finally, we estimate a significant and negative effect of publishing in leading academic journals and propose a discussion on the potential publication bias in the literature.
    Abstract: L'immigration a-t-elle un impact sur les salaires ? Aucune réponse tranchée n'a été jusqu'à présent apportée à cette interrogation. Nous proposons une méta-analyse actualisée de la littérature consacrée à cette dernière, consistant en 2146 estimations issues de 64 articles publiés entre 1972 et 2019. Il apparaît qu'en moyenne, la littérature estime un effet négatif, quoique quantitativement proche de zéro, de l'immigration sur les salaires des travailleurs nationaux. Ce résultat prévaut tant pour les individus faiblement ou moyennement qualifiés que pour ceux hautement qualifiés. Cet effet moyen dissimule cependant une hétérogénéité substantielle entre les différentes études. Cette dernière apparaît de nature structurelle, et renvoie tant au pays analysé qu'à l'utilisation de données microéconomiques ou à la méthodologie empirique mise en place, telle que le recours aux différences en différences. Nous concluons enfin à un effet négatif significatif de la publication dans les revues académiques de référence, et proposons une discussion du biais potentiel de publication dans la littérature.
    Keywords: Immigration,Marché du travail,Méta-analyse,salaire Immigration,Labor Market,Meta-Analysis,Wage
    Date: 2022–02–18
  30. By: Mercy T. Musakwa; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The study was motivated by the need to establish if burgeoning foreign capital inflows in Vietnam can support the poverty alleviation agenda. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt were used as proxies for foreign capital inflows; and infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI) and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study found foreign direct investment to reduce poverty in the short run and long run when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure. However, the study found FDI to worsen poverty in the short run when infant mortality rate and HDI were used as poverty proxies. The study found external debt to have poverty mitigating effect in the short run regardless of the poverty measure used and in the long run only when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure.
  31. By: Arūnas Burinskas (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Rasmus Holmen (Institute of Transport Economics - UiO - University of Oslo); Manuela Tvaronavičienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Agnė Šimelytė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Kristina Razminienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the intensity of technology and knowledge transfer to the selected Baltic countries through foreign direct investment. The intensity of technology and knowledge transfer across the Baltic countries varies widely, with Estonia showing the leading position in the Baltic region. The amount of foreign direct investment in three countries is linked with the level of technology and knowledge transfer. It is indicated that during the Financial Crisis in 2008, the extent of foreign direct ownership changed in all three countries and later recovered. In the aftermath of this disruption, countries recovered their stock Foreign direct investment attraction rates and almost reached their 2004 level. Latvia has achieved a 50 per cent increase among Baltic countries, benefiting from it. Foreign direct investment and technology transfer increased through effective strategies and policies. In contrast, Estonia maintains a sustained stock foreign direct investment and has moderately lower margins than in other Baltic countries. Among countries, Estonia is the dominant stock FDI absorber in the Baltic region and have made significant contributions in the region.
    Keywords: FDI,Technology transfer,Knowledge transfer,Baltic countries,Nordic countries
    Date: 2021–09–30
  32. By: NAKATOMI Michitaka
    Abstract: Under the current environment where legislative and judiciary functions of the WTO are paralyzed and protectionist movements are conspicuous including in major players such as the United States and China, it is getting clear that a trade regime dependent solely on the WTO does not function, which is that major reason for the requirement for WTO reform. At the same time, networks of FTAs have realized substantial progress as in the case of CPTPP, the Japan-EU FTA, the Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement and RCEP. Without exaggeration, FTAs are becoming the main instruments for creating rules in international trade. In this context, there is a growing need to discuss how countries can structure the regime for creating trade rules. Multi-pillar approaches to dealing with issues are essential, while simultaneously utilizing such available tools as the WTO, FTAs, issue-based plurilateral agreements, regulatory collaboration and international standards. This study focuses on digital trade issues where political and economic importance and urgency for rule making are present and where there are enormous discrepancies between the fast pace of technological development and its products, and a lack of rules governing them. It analyzes the status quo of efforts for creating rules, including the challenges and problems currently faced, and try to show the way forward with emphasis on the need for taking multi-pillar approaches as the WTO and FTAs as the central pillars.
    Date: 2022–04
  33. By: Roy, Devesh; Ajmani, Manmeet; Boss, Ruchira; Pradhan, Mamata; Laitha, Andrew
    Abstract: Globally, India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses, but increasing demand due to population growth has made the country reliant on imports, including from Myanmar. In turn, Myanmar is highly dependent on exports to India. A proposed advance purchase agreement between India and Myanmar in 2016 failed, but revisiting the original proposed purchase agreement could be in the best interest of both countries, as Myanmar could secure a large market for pulses at stable prices and India could ensure its supply of pulses.
    Keywords: INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; policies; grain legumes; pulses; nutrition; tariffs; trade; trade agreements; exports; chickpeas; lentils; pigeon peas; urd; wheat; food prices
    Date: 2022
  34. By: Kalyuzhnova, Yelena (Asian Development Bank Institute); Pomfret, Richard (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The historical routes from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India to the Middle East or Europe ran north of, south of, and across the Caspian Sea. Since 1500, maritime transport has dominated trade between Europe and East Asia. Central Asia became an economic backwater, incorporated into the Russian Empire and later forming part of the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1991. Practically all the trade links ran north to the Russian Federation. In the 21st century, with the increasing significance of Central Asia as an energy producer, countries have constructed several oil and gas pipelines. However, for trade in other goods, new transport corridors opened up more slowly until, in the 2010s, the PRC–EU rail links began operating through Kazakhstan. We examine the establishment of new trade corridors in the form of pipelines and railway lines, focusing on trans-Caspian links. We also discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade. The disruption resulting from lockdowns and quarantine requirements has negatively affected maritime, air, and other types of transportation. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with substantially depressed energy prices, is putting additional financial pressure on the Caspian governments, which are struggling with the major medical challenges that the pandemic has created.
    Keywords: trade; Caspian region; Trans-Caspian International Transport Route; energy; oil
    JEL: F13 P25 P28 Q35
    Date: 2021–05
  35. By: Su-Min; Alexandru
    Abstract: Why has geographical political polarisation increased in recent times? We propose a theoretical social learning mechanism whereby policy preferences become more homogeneous within geographical units, yet increasingly heterogeneous between units over time as voters become better informed on the views of those in their vicinity. To study our model’s predictions, we exploit the delayed implementation of Brexit and its salience in the elections following the 2016 referendum. Analysing constituency-level longitudinal-data, we find that voters updated their Brexit views after observing the referendum’s local results, and acted upon their new beliefs in the following elections. We document a two percentage-point relative decrease in the (anti-Brexit) Liberal Democrat vote share in constituencies where Leave narrowly won, mirrored by an increase for the Conservatives. Our findings have implications for how group-based identities form more broadly.
    Keywords: Elections, Brexit, Local Contextual Effects, Information, Social Learning, Political Attitudes
    JEL: D71 D72
    Date: 2022–04–11
  36. By: Kenderdine, Tristan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Bucsky, Peter (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), known as the Middle Corridor, is a multilateral institutional development linking the containerized rail freight transport networks of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the European Union through the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Turkey, and Eastern Europe. The multilateral, multimodal transport institution links Caspian and Black Sea ferry terminals with rail systems in the PRC, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Poland. Trans-Eurasian and intra-Eurasian rail freight development remains fundamentally policy- and subsidy-driven on the PRC side, yet dependent on European Union demand-side drivers to create traffic flow volumes. The development of the Middle Corridor, though, is institutionally independent and potentially transformative for the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey. We explore the institutional development of transport infrastructure and economic potential from three macroregional angles: policy- and subsidy-driven development, the Central Asia–Caucasus–Turkey physical industrial geography and political institution limitations, and lack of demand-side fundamentals from European Union market agents. The PRC’s supply-side-policy evidence suggests that growth in transcontinental containerized rail transport is politically feasible. However, demand-side factors suggest that trade development potential is largely limited to greater extraregional connectivity from the Middle Corridor economies with little economic rationale for increased PRC–Europe transcontinental freight flows.
    Keywords: transport policy; economic geography; geoindustrial policy; industrial policy; Eurasian economic integration
    JEL: B15 B27 B52 E02 E61
    Date: 2021–05
  37. By: Park, Cyn-young (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yeung, Bernard (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Asia’s economic significance has risen substantially over the past several decades. Further economic development in ASEAN, with its massive population, requires very efficient utilization of resources and cross-border cooperation. While ASEAN has much to gain from economic cooperation and integration, it faces non-trivial growth and integration barriers: (i) an infrastructure development gap; (ii) an education gap; and (iii) a market institutions gap, especially in financial sectors, which is very much related to governance issues such as government inefficiency and policy ineffectiveness. We offer an overall perspective on maintaining sustainable and inclusive development in ASEAN—the broad trend and the barriers. Three lessons emerge for ASEAN to seize the economic opportunities. First, the governments can gain great mileage in sustainable development from building sound market institutions, catering to financial and economic stability, and establishing sound health care and redistribution programs. Second, governments should promote deeper regional economic integration, invest in digital infrastructure and wireless access, and invest in training workers and companies to tune into the virtual technology. They should partner with the private sector to multiply the gains from the opportunities arising from crises. Finally, governments should embrace digital–IOT–AI technology while considering strategies to address the associated challenges.
    Keywords: ASEAN; economic cooperation and integration; digital–IOT–AI transformation; COVID-19; geopolitical tensions
    JEL: F00 F02 F15 F63
    Date: 2021–05
  38. By: Deiana, Claudio (University of Essex); Giua, Ludovica (European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II)
    Abstract: This paper establishes a new fact about immigration policies: legalization has long-term effects on formal employment of undocumented immigrants and their assimilation. We exploit the broad amnesty enacted in Italy in 2002 together with rich survey data collected in 2011 on a representative sample of immigrant households to estimate the effect of regularization in the long run. Immigrants who were not eligible for the amnesty have a 14% lower probability of working in the formal sector a decade later, are subject to more severe ethnic segregation on the job and display less linguistic assimilation than their regularized counterparts.
    Keywords: undocumented immigrants, amnesty program, formal employment, discrimination, segregation
    JEL: J15 J61 K37
    Date: 2022–03
  39. By: Michael Bailey; Drew Johnston; Martin Koenen; Theresa Kuchler; Dominic Russel; Johannes Stroebel
    Abstract: We use de-identified data from Facebook to study the social integration of Syrian migrants in Germany, a country that received a large influx of refugees during the Syrian Civil War. We construct measures of migrants’ social integration based on Syrians’ friendship links to Germans, their use of the German language, and their participation in local social groups. We find large variation in Syrians’ social integration across German counties, and use a movers’ research design to document that these differences are largely due to causal effects of place. Regional differences in the social integration of Syrians are shaped both by the rate at which German natives befriend other locals in general (general friendliness) and the relative rate at which they befriend local Syrian migrants versus German natives (relative friending). We follow the friending behavior of Germans that move across locations to show that both general friendliness and relative friending are more strongly affected by place-based effects such as local institutions than by persistent individual characteristics of natives (e.g., attitudes to-ward neighbors or migrants). Relative friending is higher in areas with lower unemployment and more completed government-sponsored integration courses. Using variation in teacher availability as an instrument, we find that integration courses had a substantial causal effect on the social integration of Syrian migrants. We also use fluctuations in the presence of Syrian migrants across high school cohorts to show that natives with quasi-random expo-sure to Syrians in school are more likely to befriend other Syrian migrants in other settings, suggesting that contact between groups can shape subsequent attitudes towards migrants.
    Keywords: integration, immigration, social networks, place effects
    JEL: F22 J15 K37 D85
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Gabriel J. Felbermayr; Hendrik Mahlkow; Alexander Sandkamp
    Abstract: This Policy Brief analyses the long-run effects of an economic decoupling between the political West (i.e. the EU, the US and their allies) and the East (first and foremost Russia and China). A decoupling of Russia from the US and its allies would have much more severe long-term impacts for real income in Russia (minus 9.7 percent) than in the US and its allies (minus 0.2 percent). The reason for the uneven distribution of costs lies primarily in Russia’s low economic importance compared with the US and its allies.
    Date: 2022
  41. By: Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The aim of the Report The world market for Horticultural Lighting is to better understand the GLOBAL MARKET FOR HORTICULTURAL LIGHTING, its competitive landscape, and the new opportunities arising from the growth of the agritech business. Horticulture lighting is a technology that stimulates photosynthesis in plants by emitting suitable wavelength. The scope of the analysis includes different types of horticulture lighting installations: Top lighting, Vertical farming, Interlighting (intracanopy lighting). These lighting systems playing several roles in plant growth: supplemental lighting, photoperiodic lighting, and sole-source lighting. The analysis has been based on a mixed METHODOLOGY, combining primary and secondary research: Desk research. The desk research will include available data from CSIL database; web surfing; balance-sheets and related international databases; collected statistics (Eurostat, IMF, World Bank, etc). Field analysis. Direct interviews with industry testimonials. The GEOGRAPHICAL CLASSIFICATION is as follows: North America: United States and Canada; Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela; Europe: Austria, Belgium (including Luxembourg), Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom; CSI countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine; Asia-Pacific: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam; Middle East: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates; Rest of the world: remaining countries. The Report provides estimates 2018-2020 and FORECASTS 2021-2023 of Total and LED-based consumption of horticultural lighting fixtures at global level and broken down by geographical area. The horticultural lighting fixtures DEMAND is broken down by Light Source (Conventional and LED) and by Application (Greenhouses, Indoor and Vertical Farming, and Others, which include R&D, animal barns, and aquaculture). The Cannabis business encompasses both the Greenhouse segment and the Indoor and vertical farming segment, therefore is treated as a separate section. The Distribution Channels and Reference Prices are examined. The Technological Evolution of the horticultural lighting industry is provided by analysing Intellectual Property (IP) applications. The competitive system analyses the main companies active in the horticultural lighting fixtures market are reported with data on sales, market shares, and short company profiles. The main Market Drivers (food demand and population dynamics, climate change and weather uncertainty, and cannabis legislation evolution) together with the Other Players operating in the agritech industry complete the study.
    JEL: L11 L22 L68
    Date: 2021–09

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