nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒04‒11
twenty-six papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Casualties of Trade Wars By Kara Reynolds; Benjamin H. Liebman
  2. Demand for Protection: The Impact of Increased Populist Rhetoric on Trade Views By Kara Reynolds
  3. Trade Liberalization, Consumption Shifting and Pollution: Evidence from Mexico's Used Vehicle Imports By Liang Chen; Cecilia Garcia-Medina; Rui Wan
  4. Trade Liberalization, Collective Bargaining and Workers: Wages and Working Conditions By Bastien Alvarez; Gianluca Orefice; Farid Toubal
  5. Do Standards Improve the Quality of Traded Products? By Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl; Herghelegiu, Cristina
  6. Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tennessee Forest Product Exports By Muhammad, Andrew; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; Anosike, Ejimofor; Taylor, Adam
  7. Measuring illicit financial flows: A gravity model approach to estimate international trade misinvoicing By Lourenço S. Paz
  8. International Migration, Cross-Border Labor Mobility, and Regional Economic Integration in Asia and the Pacific By Aiko Kikkawa; Raymond Gaspar; Cyn-Young Park
  9. An Analysis on India's Foreign Economic Relations and Its Implications for Korea-India Cooperation By Kim, Jeong Gon; Han, Hyoungmin; Keum, Hyeyoon; Pek, Jonghun
  10. Digital Trade Agreements, Protection of Personal Information and Data Governance (Japanese) By ISHII Yurika
  11. A Case for Value-Added Exports in the Estimation of Export Diversification in Asia and the Pacific By Bajaj, Pallavi; Baris, Kristina; Gonzales, Patricia Georgina; Jabagat, Christian Regie; Lazatin, Janine Elora; Tan, Elaine
  12. Firm foundations: The statistical footprint of multinational corporations as a problem for political economy By Ergen, Timur; Kohl, Sebastian; Braun, Benjamin
  13. Costs of Trade Wars: The Distributional Consequence of US Section 301 Tariffs Against China By Kara Reynolds
  14. The Roles of Foreign Ownership and Growth Opportunity amid the Trade War: Evidence from an Emerging Country By 子, 鬼谷
  15. Immigrant Employment and the Contract Enforcement Costs of Offshoring By Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas; Karpaty, Patrik; Kneller, Richard; Lodefalk, Magnus
  16. Foreign Direct Investment, Information Technology and Total Factor Productivity Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  17. Migrant Smuggling to Europe: a Matching Model By Olivier CHARLOT; Claire NAIDITCH; Radu VRANCEANU
  18. Immigrant-native gap in risk and time preferences in Germany: Levels, socio-economic determinants, and recent changes By Deole, Sumit S.; Rieger, Marc Oliver
  19. Trade-Induced Adoption of New Work By Gueyon Kim
  20. Macro-economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Mongolia’s Economy: CGE Analysis with the GTAP 10a Data Base By Enkhbayar Shagdar
  21. Does Immigration Affect Wages? A Meta-Analysis By Amandine Aubry; Jérôme Héricourt; Léa Marchal; Clément Nedoncelle
  22. Analyzing EU-15 immigrants’ language acquisition using Twitter data By B. Sofia Gil-Clavel; André Grow; Maarten J. Bijlsma
  23. The Effect of Public Export Credit Supports on Firm Performance By Jung Hur; Haeyeon Yoon
  24. Tracking Regional Integration in Northeast Asia: A composite index approach By Cyn-Young Park
  25. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update By Gianluca Benigno; Julian di Giovanni; Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
  26. Regional Economic Cooperation and Integration in Northeast Asia—The way forward under the GTI Framework By Baajiikhuu Tuguldur; Magnus C. M. Brod

  1. By: Kara Reynolds; Benjamin H. Liebman
    Abstract: Although trade wars have existed throughout modern history, there is little empirical evidence as to how countries choose which products to target for retaliatory tariffs. We develop a political economy model of trade policy to explain a country’s choice of product for retaliation and test the implications of this model using the choices of seven countries in two retaliation episodes: (1) the US imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 and (2) the US passage of the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA) in 2000. The empirical results indicate that countries are more likely to sanction products with higher trade values and those in which they can extract terms-of-trade welfare, suggesting that trade wars move countries back to a terms-of-trade driven prisoner’s dilemma equilibrium. We find a significant amount of heterogeneity in the degree to which countries consider the political importance of producers when developing their retaliation list; for example, only the EU and Canada targeted products produced in politically important locales in 2018.
    Keywords: retaliation, trade wars, political economy of trade protection
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Kara Reynolds
    Abstract: The recent backlash against globalization is often tied to the rise in populism over the past decade. This paper studies the degree to which an increase in populist rhetoric on the part of nation’s leaders can increase the support for trade protection among constituents using data from the International Social Survey Program’s (ISSP) National Identity module and the Global Populism Database between 1995 and 2013. I find evidence that support for protection does increase with the level of leftward-leaning populist rhetoric, or that which focuses on economic cleavages in society, by the country’s leaders. As one might expect, this increase in support is particularly strong among voters that identify with political parties on the left.
    Keywords: Populism, Trade Preferences
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Liang Chen; Cecilia Garcia-Medina; Rui Wan
    Abstract: This paper develops a model of used vehicle trade between countries with different environmental regulations regarding vehicle emissions. We show that the US, given its strict environmental regulations, has incentives to export used vehicles to Mexico, which impacts air pollution emissions caused by automobile driving in Mexico. Using a unique database on vehicle registration in Mexico and imports after the NAFTA enactment, we find that Mexico's used vehicle imports reduced average pollution emissions generated by vehicles, mainly due to the "technique effect" -differences in emissions of vehicles of comparable model and age between those that operate in the US before being imported (that emit less pollutants) and those operating in Mexico.
    JEL: F13 L62 Q56 Q51
    Date: 2022–01
  4. By: Bastien Alvarez; Gianluca Orefice; Farid Toubal
    Abstract: Using large scale data on Eastern European workers, we show significant and sizable deteriorations of their wages and working conditions in regions that faced large tariff liberalization and strong erosion of collective bargaining over the process of accession to the European Union. Import tariffs liberalization reduces workers' wages. The deterioration of working conditions is mostly driven by increased labor demand due to the improvement of Eastern countries' international market access. The erosion of collective bargaining worsens wages and working conditions.
    Keywords: Trade Liberalization;Working Conditions;Wages;Labor Market Institutions;Eastern Europe;E.U. Enlargement
    JEL: F15 F16 J30 J51 J81
    Date: 2022–04
  5. By: Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl; Herghelegiu, Cristina
    Abstract: We examine whether standards raise the quality of traded products by correcting market failures associated with information asymmetry on product attributes. Matching a panel of French firmproduct- destination export data with a dataset on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), we find that such quality standards enforced on products by destination countries: (i) favor the export probability of high-quality firms provided that their productivity is high enough; (ii) raise the export sales of high-productivity high-quality firms at the expense of low-productivity and low-quality firms; (iii) improve the average quality of consumption goods exported by France. We then develop a simple new trade model under uncertainty about product quality, in which heterogeneous firms can strategically invest in quality signaling, to rationalize these empirical results on quality and selection effects.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2021–12–31
  6. By: Muhammad, Andrew; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; Anosike, Ejimofor; Taylor, Adam
    Abstract: In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe and had severe impacts on the global economy. As the pandemic began to spread across the U.S., businesses closed and individuals were asked to comply with shelter-in- place and stay-at-home orders (Baker et al., 2020). Countries around the globe imposed similar measures, which negatively affected the global economy beyond anything experienced in nearly a century (Jackson et al., 2020; Sarkodie and Owusu, 2021). Consequently, the pandemic had a negative impact on U.S. forestry exports at the national and state level. Lower global economic activity and disruptions to transportation networks decreased international timber trade. Early in the pandemic, foreign ports were closed, which curtailed timber shipments, and worldwide shutdowns in construction and manufacturing weakened international demand for logs, lumber and other forest products (Riddle, 2020). In this report, we assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tennessee forest product exports. We examine export losses in 2020 by destination countries and forest product category and further assess the full economic impact of decreased export sales on income and jobs at the state and county level. According to Muhammad and Taylor (2020), the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on Tennessee’s forest product exports in 2020 due to supply and demand disruptions in the global market for finished wood products markets (e.g., furniture) and the interrelated market for raw materials and inputs (e.g., logs and lumber). In 2020, U.S. forest-product exports were down by more than $670 million when compared to the previous year. Geographically, the decline in export sales was mostly in southern states ($240 million), followed by western states ($217 million). Losses in 2020 were in addition to losses in 2019, due to the trade war between the U.S. and China. In 2020, the decrease in export sales for Tennessee was $38 million. Given the state’s dependence on foreign export sales of hardwoods, losses for Tennessee in percentage terms (22 percent in 2020 and 46 percent since 2018) exceeded national and regional averages (see Table 1) (USDA-FAS, 2021). The impacts of the trade war on U.S. and Tennessee forest product exports have been discussed in previous UT Extension reports (Muhammad and Taylor, 2020; Muhammad and Smith, 2020). The analysis in this report is based on the decrease in export sales in 2020, which has been mostly attributed to the pandemic (Riddle, 2020).
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2022–02–01
  7. By: Lourenço S. Paz
    Abstract: Illicit financial flows have recently attracted the attention of academia, practitioners, and multilateral organizations who consider them harmful to economic development. Some observers suggest that many of these flows occur via the misinvoicing of international trade transactions. This study develops a novel methodology based on the gravity model of international trade to estimate illicit financial flows using publicly available product-level international trade data.
    Keywords: Gravity model, Illicit financial flows, International trade, Misinvoicing, Transportation cost
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Aiko Kikkawa (Asian Development Bank (ADB)); Raymond Gaspar (Asian Development Bank (ADB)); Cyn-Young Park (Asian Development Bank (ADB))
    Abstract: International migration is considered an essential element of economic integration. Yet, the intraregional movement of people and labor in Asia and the Pacific has stagnated in recent years in contrast to the steadily rising flow of goods, services, and investment. This paper examines the key factors driving the movement of people from and within the region using bilateral international migrant stock data and evaluates whether some key indicators of economic integration between origin and destination economies have additive effects on this movement/these movements. Our analysis shows that commonly known determinants such as income differences; population size; and political, geographical, and cultural proximities between the migrant origin and destination countries are associated with greater movement, along with the growing share of older population in destination economies and the similarities in the level of educational attainment. The paper also finds that cross-border migration is affected, in varied directions, by the degree of economic integration between the origin and destination economies, especially through bilateral trade and value chain links. The offshoring of production—and hence jobs and other economic opportunities—to migrant origin countries suppresses outmigration, but the expected rise in the origin country income will eventually promote migration by relaxing financial constraints.
    Keywords: international migration, labor mobility, regional economic integration
    JEL: F22 O15
    Date: 2021–12
    Abstract: Economic exchanges between Korea and India have been expanding since the signing of the Korea-India CEPA, which took effect in 2010, and the promotion of the New Southern Policy (NSP) by Korea, but the level of exchange still remains insufficient considering the potential of the two countries. We aim to contribute to deepening Korea-India trade cooperation by analyzing India's foreign trade investment relations. Part II and III examine India's recent trade and investment structure with major countries including Korea, and Part IV analyzes India's status on the global production networks. In conclusion, Part V presents various implications for Korea-India trade cooperation.
    Keywords: India; Korea; economic relation; cooperation; CEPA; New Southern Policy; trade; investment
    Date: 2022–03–04
  10. By: ISHII Yurika
    Abstract: Recent digital trade agreements and digital chapters of free trade agreements that provide for a high level of obligations require member states to ensure free cross-border transfer of data, prohibit member states from requiring the installation of computer-related equipment in their territory and ban member states from requiring source code and algorithm disclosure to the operators. On a separate track, states have enacted or amended laws to protect personal information and data. Many regulate the cross-border transfer of personal data and require foreign operators to comply with strengthened regulations. However, such legislation includes rules that may conflict with the laws of the digital trade agreements. Based on empirical evidence, this paper examines how (1) privacy and data protection legislation and (2) measures taken by importing countries against business operators as part of data governance, in particular regulations requiring disclosure of source code or algorithms, are governed under digital trade agreements.
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: Bajaj, Pallavi (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development); Baris, Kristina (Asian Development Bank); Gonzales, Patricia Georgina (Asian Development Bank); Jabagat, Christian Regie (Asian Development Bank); Lazatin, Janine Elora (Asian Development Bank); Tan, Elaine (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: Export diversification, or the breadth of exports of an economy, is increasingly seen as a means of accelerating economic growth, mitigating instability due to price, demand, and exchange rate fluctuations, and stabilizing earnings from exports in the long run. As economies integrate into global and regional value chains, the new fragmented production structures may not be adequately reflected in diversification measurements based on gross exports. This paper develops a new indicator of export diversification based on value added in sectors contributing to exports. For most Asia and the Pacific economies, the gross exports approach underestimates export diversification compared to the value-added approach. Analyzing the trends suggests a strong case for the latter approach to complement the more traditional approach. The relationship between export diversification and growth is complex and is dependent on the diversification indicator and varies by income levels. One general finding is that divergence between diversification in exporting sectors and in sectors contributing to exports narrowed as income levels of economies increased.
    Keywords: export; value added; diversification; global value chains
    JEL: C82 F10 F43 F63
    Date: 2022–03–07
  12. By: Ergen, Timur; Kohl, Sebastian; Braun, Benjamin
    Abstract: The discipline of comparative political economy (CPE) relies heavily on aggregate, country-level economic indicators. However, the practices of multinational corporations have increasingly undermined this approach to measurement. The problem of indicator drift is well-documented by a growing critical literature and calls for systematic methodological attention in CPE. We present the case for a rocky but ultimately rewarding middle road between indicator fatalism and indicator faith. We illustrate our argument by examining two important cases - Sweden's recent export success and the financialization of non-financial corporations in France. A careful parsing of the data suggests corrections to common characterizations of the two cases. Swedish exports have been reshaped by intragroup trade among foreign subsidiaries of domestic corporations. The growth of financial assets held by French firms is attributable to the growth of foreign direct investment and to cumulative revaluation effects, while what remains of financialization is concentrated among the very largest firms. Based on these findings, we propose a methodological routine that parses data by zooming in on the qualitative specifics of countries, sectors, and firms, while using all available options for disaggregation.
    Keywords: comparative methodology,comparative political economy,economic indicators,financialization,France,globalization,growth models,multinational corporations,Sweden,Finanzialisierung,Frankreich,Globalisierung,multinationale Unternehmen,Schweden,vergleichende Methoden,Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie,Wirtschaftsindikatoren,Wachstumsmodelle
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Kara Reynolds
    Abstract: Between 2018 and 2020, the United States imposed massive new tariffs under a variety of trade laws, most notably the Section 301 tariffs against China. This new protection is extensive in magnitude and breadth; tariffs range from 10 to 30 percent and cover 50 percent of US consumer imports from China and 16 percent of total US consumer imports. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, I find that the new taxes are highly regressive; the lowest income consumers pay more than 1.2 percent of their after-tax income to fight these trade wars, while the wealthiest consumers pay just 0.18 percent of their after-tax income. I find additional evidence that women and parents are paying an unfair share of efforts to put America first.
    Keywords: Tariffs, Section 301, Consumer Loss
    JEL: F13 F61 F14
    Date: 2022
  14. By: 子, 鬼谷
    Abstract: In recent years investors tend to divert their investment to emerging economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), especially during the U.S.-China trade war. The present study adopts the Weighted Least Square (WLS) and PROCESS macro tool to examine the effects of foreign ownership and growth opportunity on financial performance of Vietnamese listed firms over the period 2011-2018. Our findings show that foreign ownership plays as moderator variable in the relationship between short-term and long-term performance of firms. Empirical results also reveal that mediating effects of growth opportunity on short-term and long-term performance are different before and after the trade war. These findings have important implications for investors and managers in the ASEAN countries.
    Date: 2020–06–19
  15. By: Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas; Karpaty, Patrik; Kneller, Richard; Lodefalk, Magnus
    Abstract: Offshoring continues to be an important dimension of firms' internationalization choices. However, offshoring also increases contract enforcement costs by inhibiting the coordination and monitoring of performance. Immigrant employees may reduce such costs through their specific knowledge of the employer, their country of birth and access to foreign networks. We develop a heterogeneous firm framework with immigrants and offshoring costs, including technology leakage. In the model, immigrant employees augment the supervisory services of headquarters and limit technology leakage, thereby reducing contract enforcement costs. Then, we bring our conjectures to rich administrative Swedish microlevel data that include specific information about the characteristics of employees, manufacturing firms and their bilateral offshoring. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrant employees increase offshoring intensity by lowering contract enforcement costs. Hiring one additional immigrant employee can increase offshoring by up to three percent on average, with the strongest effects found for skilled immigrant employees.
    Keywords: Offshoring,contract enforcement,immigrant employees,networks,information
    JEL: F22 F23 F14 D21 D83
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: Compared to other regions of the world, the potential for information technology penetration in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is very high. Unfortunately, productivity levels in the region are also very low. This study investigates the importance of information technology in influencing the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics. The focus is on 25 countries in SSA. Information technology is measured with mobile phone penetration and internet penetration, while the engaged TFP productivity dynamics are TFP, real TFP, welfare TFP, and real welfare TFP. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that, with the exception of regressions pertaining to real TFP growth for which the estimations do not pass post-estimation diagnostic tests, it is apparent that information technology (i.e. mobile phone penetration and internet penetration) modulate FDI to positively influence TFP dynamics (i.e. TFP, welfare TFP, and welfare real TFP). Policy and theoretical implications are discussed.
    Keywords: E23; F21; F30; L96; O55
    Date: 2022–01
  17. By: Olivier CHARLOT; Claire NAIDITCH; Radu VRANCEANU (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: This paper develops a matching model à la Pissarides (2000) to analyze the migrant smuggling market, building on the empirical evidence related to the smuggling of migrants from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East to the European region in the last decade. The model allows us to determine the equilibrium numbers of smugglers and of incoming irregular migrants as well as the total migrant welfare. Most of the coercion-based measures targeting the smugglers achieve the reduction in the number of irregular migrants and smugglers at the expense of migrants’ overall welfare. Slightly increasing legal migration opportunities has the interesting feature of drastically reducing irregular flows, without deteriorating migrants’ welfare nor increasing the total number of migrants. The model reveals that an extremely restrictive asylum policy has similar effects in terms of the flows of irregular migrants as a quite loose one, with the largest flows of irregular migrants reached for a "middle-range" policy. Finally, the stay-home incentive of generous humanitarian policies might be partially offset by higher profits and a higher smuggling activity.
    Keywords: Migrant smuggling, Irregular migration, Matching model, Migrant welfare, Europe.
    JEL: F22 J46
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Deole, Sumit S.; Rieger, Marc Oliver
    Abstract: We present new descriptive evidence on the immigrant-native gap in risk and time preferences in Germany, one of the most preferred host countries for immigration. Using the recent waves of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) dataset, we find that the immigrant-native gap in risk preferences has widened for recent immigration cohorts, especially around the 2015 European Refugee Crisis. We attribute the recent widening to decreased assimilation rates of new immigrants caused by a reduced integration due to sudden increases in immigrants flows from culturally diverse parts of the world, particularly around the year 2015. We also find that the immigrant-native gap varies across different migrant groups: "Opportunity seekers", which we define as economic immigrants who intend to stay in Germany only temporarily, are very similar in their risk preferences to natives. Other immigrants, however, are substantially more risk-averse than natives. A smaller gap in risk preferences is also found among migrants who are female, highly educated, proficient in the host language, self-employed and working in predominantly high-skilled jobs. Concerning time preferences, although a noticeably large immigrant-native gap is evident, the gap is not found to vary across most individual-level socio-economic variables.
    Keywords: Risk aversion,time discounting,immigration,assimilation
    JEL: J61 D91
    Date: 2022
  19. By: Gueyon Kim (University of California, Santa Cruz)
    Abstract: I study the trade-induced restructuring process using a novel measure of new work that captures the firm’s demand for jobs employing new knowledge, skills, and technologies. To construct measures of new work, I identify newly emerged job titles using word embedding models. Using both regional and firm-level analyses, I find that greater import exposure causes a persistent increase in new work in managerial occupations, but a decrease in new work in other occupations. Examining the activities performed in managerial new work, I find evidence of increased investments in post-production activities such as customer support, marketing, and sales. I further show that the trade-induced increase in managerial new work is driven by college-educated workers, thereby shedding light on the role of new work adoption in the distributional consequences of import shocks.
    Keywords: restructuring, word embedding models, import shocks
    JEL: J60 O00 F16
    Date: 2022–03
  20. By: Enkhbayar Shagdar (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA))
    Abstract: This paper evaluates macro-economic impacts of the various policy measures implemented by governments in response to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic by employing the standard GTAP Model and Data Base 10a, with Mongolia as the focus area. The simulation results demonstrate that Mongolia’s real economy would witness a 4.9% contraction, which is relatively compatible with the actual rate of -4.6% in 2020. All components of the welfare indicator are negative, and the country’s total welfare losses would equal $772.2 million. Most welfare deficits are associated with productivity drops followed by the terms of trade in goods and services and allocative efficiency losses. Also, both merchandise exports and imports decline along with worsening of the terms of trade. The pandemic triggers output drops for almost all sectors in Mongolia, including its major industry—the extractive sector. A few industries, such as textiles, other foods, and apparel, would experience output growths despite the pandemic shocks. However, the low self-sufficiency rates of these industries would undermine their output expansions during a prolonged pandemic, such as COVID-19. The Mongolian government’s stimulus packages to minimize the negative impacts of the pandemic on its economy have had positive effects on households by supporting consumption. However, unskilled labor has been the most vulnerable group during the pandemic, so it is desirable to implement targeted programs over universal stimuluses.
    Keywords: COVID-19 impacts, Economic growth, Welfare Impacts, CGE analysis
    JEL: E01 F17 C68
    Date: 2022–03
  21. By: Amandine Aubry (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Jérôme Héricourt (IESEG School of Management Lille); Léa Marchal (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Clément Nedoncelle (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Does immigration affect wages? No decisive answer has been provided until now. We propose an up-to-date meta-analysis of the literature investigating this question, based on 2,146 es- timates from 64 studies published between 1972 and 2019. We find that, on average, the literature reports a negative and close to zero effect of immigration on native wages. This result holds for both low/medium-skilled and high-skilled native individuals. This average effect, however, hides a large heterogeneity across studies. Variation across estimates can be explained by the presence of structural heterogeneity such as the country of analysis or the use of micro-level data, as well as to heterogeneity in research designs such as the use of difference-in-differences. Finally, we estimate a significant and negative effect of publishing in leading academic journals and propose a discussion on the potential publication bias in the literature.
    Abstract: L'immigration a-t-elle un impact sur les salaires ? Aucune réponse tranchée n'a été jusqu'à présent apportée à cette interrogation. Nous proposons une méta-analyse actualisée de la littérature consacrée à cette dernière, consistant en 2146 estimations issues de 64 articles publiés entre 1972 et 2019. Il apparaît qu'en moyenne, la littérature estime un effet négatif, quoique quantitativement proche de zéro, de l'immigration sur les salaires des travailleurs nationaux. Ce résultat prévaut tant pour les individus faiblement ou moyennement qualifiés que pour ceux hautement qualifiés. Cet effet moyen dissimule cependant une hétérogénéité substantielle entre les différentes études. Cette dernière apparaît de nature structurelle, et renvoie tant au pays analysé qu'à l'utilisation de données microéconomiques ou à la méthodologie empirique mise en place, telle que le recours aux différences en différences. Nous concluons enfin à un effet négatif significatif de la publication dans les revues académiques de référence, et proposons une discussion du biais potentiel de publication dans la littérature.
    Keywords: Immigration,Marché du travail,Méta-analyse,salaire Immigration,Labor Market,Meta-Analysis,Wage
    Date: 2022–02–18
  22. By: B. Sofia Gil-Clavel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); André Grow (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Maarten J. Bijlsma (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The increasingly complex and heterogeneous immigrant communities settling in Europe have led European countries to adopt civic-integration measures. Among these, measures that aim to facilitate language acquisition are often considered crucial for integration and cooperation between immigrants and natives. Simultaneously, the rapid expansion of the use of online social networks is believed to change the factors that affect immigrants’ language acquisition. However, so far, few studies have analyzed whether this is the case. This article uses a novel longitudinal data source derived from Twitter to: (1) analyze differences between destination-countries in the pace of immigrants’ language acquisition depending on the citizenship and civic-integration policies of those countries; and (2) study how the relative size of migrant groups in the destination-country, and the linguistic and geographical distance between origin- and destination countries, are associated with language acquisition. We focus on immigrants whose destination countries were in the EU-15 between 2012 and 2016. We study time until a user mostly tweets in the language of the destination-country for one month as a proxy of language acquisition using survival analysis. Results show that immigrants who live in countries with strict requirements for immigrants’ language acquisition and low levels of liberal citizenship policies have the highest median times of language acquisition. Furthermore, on social media such as Twitter, language acquisition is associated with classic explanatory variables, such as size of the immigrant group in the destination country, linguistic distance between origin- and destination-language, and geographical distance between origin- and destination-country.
    Keywords: European Union, computational social science, culture, immigration policy, international migration, languages
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022
  23. By: Jung Hur; Haeyeon Yoon
    Abstract: Many countries allocate public funds to export credit service—export insurance and loan services. This paper examines the effects of public export credit supports on firms’ global and domestic performance. This study differs from previous studies in that (i) it considers both export loan and insurance from export credit agencies (ECAs) (ii)in a developing country, and (iii) investigates heterogeneous effects by support types and firm characteristics. To construct unique firm-level panel data, this study combines data from two independent ECAs in Korea, each providing export loans and insurance. This paper finds that the effect of financial aids is significant and, more importantly, heterogeneous across support types and firm characteristics—export experience and financial status. The results can be a good reference for developing countries that have more incentives than developed countries to establish or expand ECAs given their weaker financial systems.
    Date: 2022–03–04
  24. By: Cyn-Young Park (Asian Development Bank (ADB))
    Abstract: In this paper, we employed a composite index approach in assessing regional integration in Asia and the Pacific, with special focus on Northeast Asia. Findings suggest that the pace of integration in Northeast Asia is broadly trending upward over the 2006 – 2016 sample period, catching up to the level of most integrated region in Southeast Asia. Of the six dimensions featured in the composite index, we find that trade and investment and movement of people are the main drivers of regional integration, while the money and finance dimension was the weakest link. An in-depth analysis of Northeast Asia indicates that infrastructure and connectivity as well as institutional and social integration drive the subregion’s integration with entire Asia. By contrast, integration within the subregion is lowest in terms of institutional and social integration, suggesting the dearth of formal integration mechanisms in Northeast Asia. Finally, country-level analysis for the subregion suggests that higher-income economies (such as People’s Republic of China, Japan, and Republic of Korea) show in general a broader regional integration compared to more narrowly-based subregional integration in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Mongolia.
    Keywords: international migration, labor mobility, regional economic integration
    JEL: F22 O15
    Date: 2021–12
  25. By: Gianluca Benigno; Julian di Giovanni; Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
    Abstract: Supply chain disruptions continue to be a major challenge as the world economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. In a January post, we presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) as a parsimonious global measure that encompasses several indicators used to capture supply chain disruptions. The main purpose of this post is to provide an update of the GSCPI through February 2022. In addition, we use the index’s underlying data to discuss the drivers of recent moves in the GSCPI. Finally, these data are used to create country-specific supply chain pressures indices.
    Keywords: supply chain; bottlenecks; global supply chain pressure index
    JEL: F0 I18
    Date: 2022–03–03
  26. By: Baajiikhuu Tuguldur (GTI Secretariat); Magnus C. M. Brod (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA))
    Abstract: This paper is elaborations on the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI)’s current situation and future development as a vehicle mandated to promote regional economic cooperation between China, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Korea and Mongolia. GTI is the only active intergovernmental mechanism in Northeast Asia. Hence, its future holds special importance for the region as a whole, including Japan and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. To assess GTI’s current state of play, its prospects, and challenges, we reviewed the wealth of official documents and studies of GTI as well as scholarly literature on the topic. The authors additionally draw from their long-standing involvement in the regionalization process in Northeast Asia. Based on the review, we highlight several success factors as well as challenges and propose four areas for improvement. Examples from GTIs work in four key sectors: transport, trade, energy, and business cooperation are utilized to highlight the importance but also the shortcomings of GTI. To justify the role of GTI in regional cooperation and integration, we emphasize capacity enhancement for project-oriented activities, improving operational processes, strengthening its institutional structure, and streamlining activities across sectors to achieve the set goals. GTI’s strategic development framework is also proposed, consisting of the institutional development plan and operational plan. The implications of this research can inform the institutional update of GTI to enhance operational output with a view to creating tangible results for regional integration.
    Keywords: regional integration, northeast asia, organisational development, economic cooperation, international trade
    JEL: O19
    Date: 2021–12

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