nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒03‒14
thirty-one papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Late-Movers Outperform First-Movers in Export Markets By Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim
  2. Economic and social effects of a possible trade agreement between Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region By Durán Lima, José Elías; Aguiar, Angel; Ronzheimer, Ira Nadine
  3. The Extraterritorial Effects of Sanctions By Kwon, Ohyun; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yotov, Yoto
  4. Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility By Michael A. Clemens
  5. Internalization of Externalities in International Trade By Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim
  6. The impacts of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area on the Kenyan economy By NECHIFOR VOSTINARU Victor; BOYSEN Ole; FERRARI Emanuele; SIMOLA Antti Mikko; NANDELENGA Martin; LAICHENA Joshua; MALOT Kenneth
  7. Consequences of a Massive Refugee Influx on Firm Performance and Market Structure By Yusuf Emre Akgündüz; Yusuf Kenan Bağır; Seyit Mümin Cılasun; Murat Güray Kırdar
  8. When Quality Management Helps Agri-food Firms to Export By Charlotte Emlinger; Karine Latouche
  9. United States-Latin America and the Caribbean Trade Developments 2021 By -
  10. The Dynamics of Global Sourcing By Trang T. Hoang
  11. The Synergy between Governance and Economic Integration in Promoting Female Economic Inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa By Pamela E. Ofori; Simplice A. Asongu; Vanessa S. Tchamyou
  12. COVID-19 Working Paper: U.S.-Mexico Agricultural Trade in 2020 By Zahniser, Steven
  13. The relevance of re-exports for identifying strategic dependencies By RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose; PEDAUGA Luis; MANDRAS Giovanni
  14. What is The Impact of Chinas Entry into the WTO on CO2 Emissions? By Duan, Yuqi
  15. Supply Chain Resilience: Should Policy Promote Diversification or Reshoring? By Gene M. Grossman; Elhanan Helpman; Hugo Lhuillier
  16. Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the U.S. By Toman Barsbai; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Winter
  17. Using unit value indices as proxies for international merchandise trade prices By Guannan Miao; Enrico Wegner
  18. Recent trends in transport and insurance costs and estimates at disaggregated product level By Guannan Miao; Enrico Wegner
  19. Have unequal treaties fostered domestic market integration in Late Imperial China ? By Jean-Louis Combes; Mary-Françoise Renard; Shuo Shi
  20. Foreign Direct Investment, Information Technology and Total Factor Productivity Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  21. Extended Supply-Use Tables By Dutta, Sourish
  22. Changes in perceptions of border security influence desired levels of immigration By Briggs, Ryan C; Solodoch, Omer
  23. Environmental Factors and Internal Migration in India By Komeda, Kenji
  24. Possible Effects Of A Russian-Chinese Joint SWIFT System On The Eurasian Economy And The World Trade System By Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
  25. Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration By Ellora Derenoncourt
  26. Food policy measures in response to COVID-19 in Central Asia and the Caucasus: Taking stock after the first year of the pandemic By Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo
  27. Gender dynamics in value chains By Pyburn, Rhiannon; Stoian, Dietmar; Quintero, Sandra
  28. Air pollution and emigration behaviors – evidence of Hanoi By 子, 鬼谷
  29. Search and Information Frictions on Global E-Commerce Platforms: Evidence from AliExpress By Jie Bai; Maggie X. Chen; Jin Liu; Xiaosheng Mu; Daniel Yi Xu
  30. Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa By Di Falco, Salvatore; Kis, Anna B.; Viarengo, Martina
  31. Migration, Remittances and Accumulation of Human Capital with Endogenous Debt Constraints By Nicolas Destrée; Karine Gente; Carine Nourry

  1. By: Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim
    Abstract: Using exporter-level data from Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Guatemala, Jordan, Malawi, Mexico, Peru, and Senegal, as well as controlling for supply and demand shocks, I find that late-movers outperform first-movers in product-destination export markets.
    Keywords: exporter dynamics; first-mover; late-mover; market entry; diversification; international trade
    JEL: F1 F11 F12 F13 F14 F6
    Date: 2020–11–09
  2. By: Durán Lima, José Elías; Aguiar, Angel; Ronzheimer, Ira Nadine
    Abstract: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) concluded between Asian Pacific States in 2020 is expected to change regional and global trade patterns. Based on a Computable General Equilibrium model (including 41 countries and 39 sectors), the underlying paper evaluates the impact of firstly, RCEP on trade between Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) and Asian Pacific member countries, and secondly, a hypothetical free trade area in LAC and thirdly, a free trade agreement within and between the two regions. Results are analyzed on the country —and sector— level by type of agent (small and medium-sized, MSMEs, and large companies). The model outputs imply a boost in trade in the Asian Pacific region caused by the RCEP agreement coming into force, while trade volumes of LAC countries would contract. This likely targets primarily exports of natural resources and low —and medium— technology manufacturers based in LAC.
    Date: 2021–12–31
  3. By: Kwon, Ohyun (Drexel University); Syropoulos, Constantinos (Drexel University); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University)
    Abstract: We provide quantitative evidence that the primary effects of economic sanctions on trade and welfare are accompanied by strong extraterritorial effects - estimates of the former effects may be significantly biased if the latter effects are not taken into account. Furthermore, while the extraterritorial burden of sanctions on trade falls primarily on target countries, the corresponding effect on trade among senders and third countries is positive. General equilibrium analysis suggests that, for targets, the welfare losses due to extraterritorial effects are large and may exceed the losses due to reduced trade with senders. For senders, the gains from increased trade with third countries may outweigh the losses from decreased trade with targets to generate net welfare gains. The welfare effects on third countries are significant, too. However, the direction and size of these effects depend on three key factors: the size of the target, the size of the sender, and the economic ties among the target, the sender, and third countries.
    Keywords: Economic Sanctions; Primary Effects; Extraterritorial Effects; Trade; Welfare
    JEL: F14 F51 Q17
    Date: 2022–01–28
  4. By: Michael A. Clemens (Michael A. Clemens)
    Abstract: The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists’ study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.
    Keywords: immigration, emigration, globalization, labor, demographic, development, wages, employment, model, causes, effects, mobility, long run
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim
    Abstract: Using disaggregated customs data about exporters from nine countries, I demonstrate that informational externalities are determinants of entry, survival, and growth of exporters at the product–destination market level. I show that exporters who optimize entry decisions and internalize informational externalities survive longer and grow faster. Then, I conceptualize why exporters enter certain international markets and why not all exporters from the same origin survive and grow in these markets. I incorporate the interaction between the performance and number of peers in a given market to identify a potential learning externality that exporters may be exposed to. Also, I highlight that, even without the formation of formal networks, the observation of the actions of peers in export markets can deliver implications for export flows: exporters may not need to start small in new markets if the actions of peers in those markets reveal enough information. By helping to explain how export relationships survive and grow, I complement the literature on the determinants of export diversification and signal to export promotion agencies the importance of internalization of informational externalities by exporters.
    Keywords: exporters dynamics; peer effects; informational externalities; market entry; diversification; trade; development
    JEL: F1 F10 F11 F14
    Date: 2021–09–01
  6. By: NECHIFOR VOSTINARU Victor (European Commission - JRC); BOYSEN Ole (European Commission - JRC); FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); SIMOLA Antti Mikko (European Commission - JRC); NANDELENGA Martin; LAICHENA Joshua; MALOT Kenneth
    Abstract: The study explores the impacts of establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the economy of Kenya. By using a fully disaggregated single-country CGE model (55 commodities, 22 household groups) in combination with a global CGE model, it seeks to offer a detailed characterization of the economic impacts in the country in a number of areas (macroeconomic, sectoral and household welfare). In the context of the pre-existing regional trade agreements that Kenya is part of, it captures the incremental value for the Kenyan economy of the further trade liberalization commitments across the continent as may be agreed in the final AfCFTA text. The combined modeling framework allows to consider the global repercussions of the AfCFTA and especially the interaction effects of the liberalization between the African countries in assessing the implications for Kenya in higher detail, in particular on agricultural commodities and households.
    Keywords: Africa Continental Free Trade Area, Kenya
    Date: 2022–02
  7. By: Yusuf Emre Akgündüz (Yusuf Emre Akgündüz); Yusuf Kenan Bağır (Yusuf Kenan Bağır); Seyit Mümin Cılasun (Seyit Mümin Cılasun); Murat Güray Kırdar (Murat Güray Kırdar)
    Abstract: This study combines an administrative dataset of the full population of Turkish firms and the setting of the sudden mass migration of Syrian refugees to Turkey to identify the effect of migrants on firm performance and market structure. We find that economic activity increases in hosting regions, but negative implications exist for long-term productivity. As a result of the migrant shock, exiting firms expand and new firms are established; however, the resulting market structure shows less concentration. Quantitatively, a 10 percentage-point rise in the migrant-to-native ratio increases firm sales by 3.8% and the number of active firms by 5.8%, but reduces firms’ average market share by 4.1%. We further document an increase in the export volume and variety of exported products to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In addition, a decline in export prices is observed, implying a rise in the competitiveness of exporting firms. We also uncover evidence for an effect of migrants’ skills and networks on exports, as the export value and variety of products to the MENA region increase more than those to the EU region while the prices of products exported to the two regions show similar changes.
    Keywords: refugees, firm performance, market structure, sales, informality, exports, migrant business networks.
    JEL: J15 J61 F16 L11
    Date: 2022–02
  8. By: Charlotte Emlinger (Virginia Tech [Blacksburg]); Karine Latouche (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: From the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy outbreak in the 90's to the milk powder scandal in China in 2008, food safety incidents have led to an increasing demand for traceability and safety of food products, from both consumers and distributors. Governments have answered to this demand by strengthening public regulation on their territory (see for example the European Community Regulation 178/2002 on food traceability) or by increasing the number of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) and Technical barriers to trade (TBT) at the border. The private sector also implemented several certifications to facilitate the standardization of safety and traceability (HACCP, ISO standards) or to manage the buyer-supplier relationship (IFS, BRC retailers standards). Therefore, the ability to make safe products, to ensure traceability and to have it recognized through certifications appears to be an essential element of the international competitiveness of agri-food companies. Even if these characteristics are not systematically observed by final consumers, they may help to access to markets with high levels of sanitary requirements or enable to benefit from international retailer networks. In this paper, we investigate the effects of firms' commitment to traceability and food safety on export performance. We rely on the presence of quality management and control personnel in agri-food firms to proxy their level of commitment to product reliability and safety issues. Quality management and control personnel ensure that the firms' goods are safe and reliable, that they meet customers' expectation and that they follow regulatory requirements. Quality managers are therefore major players in the firm's quality policy, both by preventing failure and by copying with those that do occur. They are key in the adoption of standards and in their maintenance. Working both with the firms' other employees and with external partners such as suppliers, customers, health inspectors or customs, they can lead to better export performance through four channels. First, the increase of product safety allowed by the implementation of quality systems limits consumers' exposure to potentially hazardous foods, and reduces recalls and consumers complains. Second, quality control and management may increase the effectiveness of operation and the efficiency of supply chains, through a better optimization of the processes, inducing higher productivity and a reduction of losses or products deterioration. Third, quality specialists help to comply sanitary, phyto-sanitary or technical legal requirements in destination markets, both by applying the necessary procedures, and by being able to provide evidence of compliance with the measures. Finally, better procedures and traceability can increase firms' reputation among buyers, whether they are intermediaries, retailers or final consumers. This confidence can come from a simple perception or from different certifications (such as HACCP, IFS or ISO), whose adoption is facilitated by the presence of qualified and specialized personnel. The firms' commitment in traceability and food safety may thus lead to a differentiation of products for the buyers' point of view. Of course, firms do not need to have a dedicated staff on quality management to be able to meet standards, implement traceability systems and have certifications. We can however expect that firms hiring specialized employees have stronger policy and capability on these issues, and consequently better export performance, that we test in this article. Using French administrative employee-firm-level data merged with French customs data, we measure the effect of firms' quality management system first on the intensive and extensive margins of trade, and second on trade unit values and perceived quality on foreign markets, using Khandelwal's methodology (Khandelwal, 2010). Focusing on a single country's exports allows us to control for foreign consumers' preferences for the different origins. We compare exports of firms with quality management personnel with exports of firms without this category of employees to a given destination, product (defined at the 6-digit code of the Harmonized System) and year. We furthermore explore whether these effects vary according to destination countries, depending on the level of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) applied at their border.
    Keywords: Export performance,Traceability and quality mangement,Firm level data,Quality management and control personnel
    Date: 2021–12–12
  9. By: -
    Abstract: United States trade is showing a healthy recovery in 2021 in both imports and exports of goods and services, although some categories of services are still suffering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Travel, transport, and tourism have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, trade in goods has recovered in all major categories. United States-Latin America and the Caribbean Trade Developments 2021 provides an overview of developments in United States trade relations with Latin America and the Caribbean. Following the global focus on the climate crisis and the specific emphasis on President Biden’s trade policy on advancing a sustainable environment and climate path, this year’s report includes a section on United States trade in circular economy goods.
    Date: 2021–12–02
  10. By: Trang T. Hoang
    Abstract: This paper studies an import model that incorporates both static crosscountry interdependence and dynamic dependence in firm-level decisions. I find that the benefit of sourcing from one country increases as a firm imports from more countries. Furthermore, using a partial identification approach under the revealed preferences assumption, I provide evidence for the sunk costs of importing, which make establishing relationships with new sellers costlier than maintaining existing ones. The coexistence of cross-country interdependence and sunk costs implies that temporary trade policy changes can have long-lasting effects on both the targeted and non-targeted markets through firm-level decisions.
    Keywords: Intermediate goods; Imports; Sunk costs; Exit and entry; Interdependence; Partial identification
    JEL: F10 L20
    Date: 2022–02–16
  11. By: Pamela E. Ofori (Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: The debate on the need for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to increase female participation in the economic sector has intensified the coming into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and good governance. This study investigates the joint effects of governance (comprising of political, economic and institutional governance) and economic integration on female economic participation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study employs panel data of 42 countries in SSA spanning 1996-2020 for the analysis. The empirical strategy uses the dynamic System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) estimation technique. The findings reveal that the single effect of economic integration on female economic participation is necessary but not sufficient. Hence, complementing economic integration with good governance further enhances female economic participation in SSA. In general, the joint effect of economic integration and good governance should be a concern for policymakers to promote female economic inclusion.
    Keywords: economic integration; governance; female economic participation; sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: G20 I10 I32 O40 O55
    Date: 2021–01
  12. By: Zahniser, Steven
    Abstract: Agricultural trade between the United States and Mexico underwent many changes in 2020 in the face of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Overall, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico declined in April 2020 and did not recover until November 2020. Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico declined in April and May 2020 before resuming their long-term upward trend. Beef and veal, cotton, and pork were the U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico with the largest decreases in export value between calendar years 2019 and 2020. The agricultural imports from Mexico with the largest increases in import value were tequila, fresh tomatoes, and beer. The economic downturn and shift away from food expenditures at hotels, restaurants, and institutional establishments because of the pandemic explain some of these changes. However, a larger set of supply and demand determinants was at play, including conventional factors unrelated to the pandemic, such as the long-term expansion of Mexico’s horticultural export sector and year-to-year changes in crop production.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Financial Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2022–02–28
  13. By: RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose (European Commission - JRC); PEDAUGA Luis (European Commission - JRC); MANDRAS Giovanni (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Re-exports matter when measuring foreign import concentration and production capacity substitution to identify strategic dependencies. The Eurostat’s new FIGARO database allows for disentagling domestic exports and re-exports. Our results provide evidence that certain raw materials (aluminium, nickel and copper), photosensitive semiconductors and spacecraft might deserve special attention in future-in-depth reviews. Other products are chemicals and textiles.
    Keywords: FIGARO database, bilateral trade, strategic dependencies
    Date: 2022–02
  14. By: Duan, Yuqi (Monash University)
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of China’s entry into the WTO on carbon dioxide emissions from a global standpoint. A panel of production-based CO2 emissions and consumption-based CO2 emissions of 39 countries from 1995 to 2007 is constructed by integrating country-sector level data from WIOD. Using a triple difference design, I observe additions in production and consumption emissions after this specific trade openness event. The results vary according to the country’s income level. For example, this event has a more significant effect in developed countries than developing countries. The above results are due to the growth in both production and consumption emission intensities after the event. Notably, the magnitude of the increase in the production emissions is smaller than the consumption emissions, thus inferring that the CO2 emissions embodied in domestic production used for exports or final consumption partially decrease through the growing highemission intensity intermediate goods imported from China.
    Keywords: trade liberalization ; China’ entry into the WTO ; production CO2 emissions ; consumption CO2 emissions ; developed and developing countries JEL Classification: F18 ; Q53 ; Q54
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Gene M. Grossman (Princeton University); Elhanan Helpman (Harvard University); Hugo Lhuillier (Princeton University)
    Abstract: Supply chain disruptions, which have become commonplace, are often associated with globalization and trade. Little is known about optimal policy in the face of insecure supply chains. Should governments promote resilience by subsidizing backup sources of input supply? Should they encourage firms to source from closer and presumably safer domestic suppliers? We address these questions in a very simple model of production with a single critical input and with exogenous risks of relationship-specific and country-wide supply disturbances. We follow Matsuyama and Ushchev (2020) in positing a class of preferences that are homothetic with a single aggregator and that obey Marshall’s Second Law of Demand. The familiar case of CES preferences is a member of the class, but it imposes restrictions that are important for policy conclusions. We find that, in the CES case, a subsidy for diversification achieves the constrained social optimum and dominates a policy that promotes reshoring or offshoring. When the demand elasticity rises with price, two policy instruments generally are needed to achieve efficient supply chains, private investments in resilience may be socially excessive, and policy that alter incentives to invest at home versus abroad may achieve greater welfare than ones that encourage or discourage diversification.
    Keywords: global supply chains, global value chains, input sourcing, resilience
    JEL: F13 H21 F12
    Date: 2021–09
  16. By: Toman Barsbai (Toman Barsbai); Andreas Steinmayr (Andreas Steinmayr); Christoph Winter (Christoph Winter)
    Abstract: We analyze how economic conditions at the time of arrival affect the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the U.S. Our identification strategy exploits long waiting times for family-sponsored immigration visas that decouple the migration decision from economic conditions at the time of arrival. A one pp higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by four percent in the short run and two percent in the longer run. The loss in wage income is the result of substantial occupational downgrading, lower hourly wages, and a reduction in working hours. Family migrants who immigrate into a recession draw on migrant and family networks to mitigate the negative labor market effects. As a result, they take up occupations with higher concentrations of fellow countrypeople. They are also more likely to reside with family members, potentially reducing their geographical mobility.
    Keywords: Immigrant integration, family reunification, migrant networks, labor market, business cycle
    JEL: E32 F22 J31 J61
    Date: 2022–01
  17. By: Guannan Miao; Enrico Wegner
    Abstract: In light of the need for detailed and timely internationally comparable trade price indices, this paper describes a multi-tiered methodology to mitigate many of the empirical challenges associated with using customs data, to provide more robust estimates of unit value indices (UVIs) by country and product. UVIs are available for both exports and imports, by reporting country and the CPA 2-digit level of classification. Although the approach cannot capture changes in the quality of products nor compositional changes happening at a lower than HS 6-digit classification, the results indicate that at higher levels of aggregation (SITC 1-digit level), estimated UVIs closely follow price changes obtained from other sources. This is observed both for products with significant and rapid quality changes, such as hi-tech products, and for products with a low rate of quality changes, such as commodities, other primary and low-tech goods. Furthermore, products where little quality change occurs over time show similarity between UVIs and price changes from other sources at lower levels of disaggregation. The methodology is used to produce the Merchandise Trade Price Index and the data is made publically available on .Stat under the International Trade and Balance of Payments heading.
    JEL: C43 C82 E31
    Date: 2022–02–17
  18. By: Guannan Miao; Enrico Wegner
    Abstract: This paper updates the OECD International Transport and Insurance Cost (ITIC) of Merchandise Trade database, which covers more than 180 countries and partners, and over 1000 products from 1995 to 2020. Transport and insurance costs, also known as CIF-FOB margins, are estimated using a gravity model. A cross-validation procedure is used to evaluate model performance. In addition to describing the methodology, the paper highlights that transport and insurance costs are declining as a fraction of trade value, but this reduction has been flattening out in more recent years. However, an alternative measure, the explicit CIF-FOB margins per kilogramme imported, suggests that transport and insurance costs have been actually rising since 2002. Both CIF-FOB margins and cost per kilogramme imported show increases in 2020 when compared to 2019. This is robust to corrections for compositional changes. The methodology is used to produce the International Transport and Insurance Costs of Merchandise Trade data base and the data is made publically available on .Stat under the International Trade and Balance of Payments heading.
    JEL: C23 F14 L91
    Date: 2022–02–18
  19. By: Jean-Louis Combes (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mary-Françoise Renard (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Shuo Shi (CCES - China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University)
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to study the relationship between international trade openness and domestic market integration in Late Imperial China. More specifically, we focus on a natural experiment namely the Unequal Treaties of the second half of the nineteenth century that lifted the long-existing international trade restriction system. The integration of domestic markets is analyzed while looking at the existence of a long term common movement in the grain prices between provinces. The econometric results show that trade openness did not lead to better integration of the Chinese domestic grain markets. Our results support the hypothesis according to which long-distance trade has not generated efficiency gains in domestic markets. We evidence a strong segmentation between domestic and international grain markets owing to different traded products and operators.
    Keywords: Market integration,Law of one prices,Late Imperial China
    Date: 2020–05–25
  20. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: Compared to other regions of the world, the potential for information technology penetration in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is very high. Unfortunately, productivity levels in the region are also very low. This study investigates the importance of information technology in influencing the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics. The focus is on 25 countries in SSA. Information technology is measured with mobile phone penetration and internet penetration, while the engaged TFP productivity dynamics are TFP, real TFP, welfare TFP, and real welfare TFP. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that, with the exception of regressions pertaining to real TFP growth for which the estimations do not pass post-estimation diagnostic tests, it is apparent that information technology (i.e. mobile phone penetration and internet penetration) modulate FDI to positively influence TFP dynamics (i.e. TFP, welfare TFP, and welfare real TFP). Policy and theoretical implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Productivity; Foreign Investment; Information Technology; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: E23 F21 F30 L96 O55
    Date: 2022–01
  21. By: Dutta, Sourish
    Abstract: The statistical challenges of globalization are profound. We cannot rely solely on national statistics to understand how economies work and how to create industrial policies focusing on competitiveness. It is necessary to see the whole. National statistics build pictures based on relationships between producers and consumers and the rest of the world. But these relationships, especially those with the rest of the world, have become increasingly more complex. There is an increasing need to consider global production within a global accounting framework. This implies a departure from the traditional role of international organizations as compilers of internationally comparable national statistics to bring together the national tables to create a global table.
    Date: 2021–12–08
  22. By: Briggs, Ryan C (Virginia Tech); Solodoch, Omer
    Abstract: Security concerns about immigration are on the rise. Many countries respond by fortifying their borders. Yet little is known about the influence of border security measures on perceived threat from immigration. Borders might facilitate group identities and spread fear of outsiders. In contrast, they might enhance citizens' sense of security and control over immigration. We test these claims using survey experiments run on a nationally representative sample of over 1,000 Americans. The findings show that allocating more government resources to border security increases desired levels of immigration. This effect is likely driven by a sense of control over immigration, induced by border security measures even when the number or characteristics of immigrants remain unchanged. Our findings suggest that border controls, which are widely considered as symbols of closure and isolation, can promote openness to immigration.
    Date: 2021–12–06
  23. By: Komeda, Kenji (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of air pollution, water pollution and water scarcity on internal migration in India using gravity model with 2SLS estimation. It contributes to the literature by first incorporating nationwide migrants and those three environmental factors into the analysis. The migration data is drawn from the Indian Census 2001 and 2011 and provides us with state-district pair-wise migration flows for certain time periods. With a wide range of data sources including Indian government platforms and satellite data, this study compiles a rich and comprehensive dataset. We find that the increase in air pollutant (PM2.5) at origin pushes out migrants, with larger influence on male than female. This paper also discovers, with more robust evidence, that the increase in groundwater level, a proxy for water scarcity level, at origin leads to less out-migrants and increase in groundwater at destination pulls more in-migrants for both genders. However, consistent evidence on water pollutants was not found.
    Keywords: Internal Migration ; Pollution ; Water Scarcity ; Gender Inequality ; Gravity Model JEL Classification: J16 ; J61 ; O15 ; Q25 ; Q53
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul
    Abstract: The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, called SWIFT, is considered a cornerstone of global transactions. At its founding, SWIFT membership amounted to 239 banks from fifteen Western countries. Past examples show that SWIFT can also be used as a weapon, even though it is nominally independent. Recent statements indicate that the US and the EU are seriously considering removing Russia from the SWIFT system in case of tension. In fact, back in 2014 after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula, there were calls to cut Russia off from SWIFT. In response, Russia developed a its domestic financial-communications platform. It should be taken into account that in case certain Russian banks are disconnected from SWIFT, these Russian banks and multinationals looking for ways to move money may find a warm welcome in the growing Chinese Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). In recent years, there has been a significant increase in both the EU and the US use of economic sanctions to force other countries they consider as adversaries "in line" with Western interests. Being in the same alliance no longer suffices in guaranteeing exclusion from such economic sanctions. On the contrary, such sanctions have been turned into a teaching lesson even to allies, and it is undeniable that this behavior has reached a level that will shake even the strongest alliances. It should also be kept in mind that this contemptuous approach erodes the patience of the public opinions of the countries that are not included in the Western World or constantly excluded despite being in that group. It is unlikely that the results of employing sanctions, which has become a habit for the US and the EU, to the most significant countries of the world, such as Russia and China, in terms of their military power as well as their economies, will lead to beneficial results. The developments in the coming period may serve as a reminder that the Western world must act with common sense to avoid sowing divisions in the world trade system.
    Date: 2021–12–21
  25. By: Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper shows that racial composition shocks during the Great Migration (1940-1970) reduced the gains from growing up in the northern United States for Black families and can explain 27% of the region’s racial upward mobility gap today. I identify northern Black share increases by interacting pre-1940 Black migrants’ location choices with predicted southern county out-migration. Locational changes, not negative selection of families, explain lower upward mobility, with persistent segregation and increased crime and policing as plausible mechanisms. The case of the Great Migration provides a more nuanced view of moving to opportunity when destination reactions are taken into account.
    Keywords: migration
    JEL: R23
    Date: 2021–08
  26. By: Djanibekov, Nodir; Herzfeld, Thomas; Arias, Pedro Marcelo
    Abstract: Despite initial concerns of catastrophic outcomes, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting lockdown measures did not severely affect regional agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus. They did, however, affect food supply chains in terms of demand and logistics. Food prices were volatile throughout 2020 and particularly high in countries with currency depreciation. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic as a human and health crisis presents an ever increasing risk to the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus. The global implications of the pandemic, combined with a decline in oil and gas exports and migrant remittances, could impede recovery and undermine economic stability in the region. Policymakers should avoid disrupting domestic food supply chains and placing barriers to trade through export bans and quotas. At the same time, they must ensure food security and reduced price volatility through diversified trade networks. Deeper domestic value chains and efficient management of public and private food stock reserves will better prepare countries to face the continuing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Better-informed and targeted policy responses to a pandemic require improved national systems of nutrition research and monitoring, and timely availability of data not only relating to production but also to other levels of the agrifood chain.
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Pyburn, Rhiannon; Stoian, Dietmar; Quintero, Sandra
    Abstract: Over the past 20 years, value chain development (VCD) initiatives and value chain research have increasingly integrated gender dimensions to allow for gender-differentiated employment and income opportunities and other benefits for women and men, and to address the exploitation of women’s labor (Pyburn and Kruijssen 2021). This research often addresses constraints to women’s participation in specific value chains, such as administrative procedures in transboundary fish trade (Ratner et al. 2018) or disproportionate harassment of women food traders by authorities in Nigeria (Resnick et al. 2019). This brief draws on research conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) to illustrate how VCD supports and constrains progress toward gender equality and women’s empowerment. In particular, the brief summarizes work from a portfolio of six PIM co-funded projects (2020–2021) on gender dynamics in value chains beyond the production node and single commodity analysis (Box 1), a book chapter in a CGIAR-wide gender publication (Pyburn and van Eerdewijk 2021), the Pro-WEAI (project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index) for Market Inclusion, and other gender-integrated value chain work within PIM (Crimi 2018; Vos and Pyburn 2021), and provides an outlook for future research.
    Keywords: WORLD; gender; value chains; women's participation; smallholders; women's empowerment; gender responsive approaches; women
    Date: 2021
  28. By: 子, 鬼谷
    Abstract: Expeditious increase in population and industrialization has led to alarming rates of air pollution in all countries. However, developing economies have had to face a more adverse and severe impact. This had led to many changes in the day to day living of citizens. In this paper we have focused on the psychological process and predictors of migration intention of the people living in Hanoi, Vietnam. Two stratified random datasets of 475 people were used, and Bayesian analysis was performed on this dataset. We found out that the intent to move was negatively associated to the individual’s satisfaction with air quality. We also found that people who have family members that have fallen victim to a disease caused by air pollution are more likely to migrate. This paper discusses an important topic: immigration of the younger demographic, i.e. the Hanoi workforce, which may cause restrictions and hurdles in the city's urbanisation and development. The findings suggest that, if measures against air pollution are not taken, economic forces may be disrupted, posing a threat to urban growth. As a result, collaborative activities and steps need to be taken by the government to curb this unfortunate consequence.
    Date: 2021–12–22
  29. By: Jie Bai (Harvard Kennedy School); Maggie X. Chen (George Washington University); Jin Liu (New York University); Xiaosheng Mu (Princeton University); Daniel Yi Xu (Duke University)
    Abstract: We study how search and information frictions shape market dynamics in global e-commerce. Observational data and self-collected quality measures from AliExpress establish the existence of search and information frictions. A randomized experiment that offers new exporters exogenous demand and information shocks demonstrates the potential role of sales accumulation in enhancing seller visibility and overcoming these demand frictions. However, we show theoretically and quantitatively that this demand-reinforcement mechanism is undermined by the large number of online exporters. Our structural model rationalizes the experimental findings and quantifies efficiency gains from reducing the number of inactive sellers.
    Keywords: global e-commerce, exporter dynamics, product quality, information frictions, search frictions
    JEL: F14 L11 O12
    Date: 2021–09
  30. By: Di Falco, Salvatore (University of Geneva); Kis, Anna B. (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
    Keywords: climate shocks, rural-urban migration, economic development
    JEL: O15 O13 Q54
    Date: 2022–02
  31. By: Nicolas Destrée (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Karine Gente (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Carine Nourry (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of migration and workers' remittances on human capital and economic growth when young individuals face debt constraints to finance education. We consider an overlapping generations model à la de la Croix and Michel (2007). In this no-commitment setting, education is the engine of growth. Individuals may choose to default on their debt and be excluded from the asset market. We show that remittances tend to tighten the borrowing constraints for a given level of interest rate, but may enhance growth at the equilibrium. The model replicates both negative and positive impacts of migration and remittances on economic growth underlined by the empirical literature. We calibrate the model for 30 economies.
    Keywords: Migration,Remittances,Overlapping generations,Human capital,Borrowing constraints,Indeterminacy
    Date: 2021–07

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