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on International Trade |
| By: | Pablo Fajgelbaum (Princeton University); Pinelopi K. Goldberg (Yale University); Patrick Kennedy (University of California, Berkeley); Amit Khandelwal (Columbia GSB); Daria Taglioni (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses, rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in the products targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt global trade growth. |
| Keywords: | Conflicts, Globalization, United States, China, Trade disputes, Exports, International relations, Tariffs |
| JEL: | F10 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2020-56&r= |
| By: | John Gilbert; Onur A. Koska (University of Canterbury); Reza Oladi |
| Abstract: | In the context of a model of international trade through reciprocal dumping with horizontally differentiated goods, we study the endogenous choice of quantities and prices as strategic variables. We show that while a Cournot outcome prevails under conditions of export rivalry, strategic asymmetry under foreign direct investment rivalry may be observed, especially when it is possible to initially deter FDI by committing to a price contract, and when switching is costly and/or takes time. |
| Keywords: | Exports vs. FDI; Horizontal Product Differentiation; Cournot-Bertrand-Nash Equilibrium |
| JEL: | D43 F12 F23 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:22/04&r= |
| By: | Gabriel Felbermayr; Mario Larch; Erdal Yalcin; Yoto V. Yotov |
| Abstract: | We quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member counties is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefitting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small for non-member countries. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to lower import prices and higher export demand. |
| Keywords: | GATT, WTO, Heterogenous Policy Effects, Welfare |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2022:i:195&r= |
| By: | Gnutzmann–Mkrtchyan, Arevik (Leibniz Universität Hannover); Hugot, Jules (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade reallocation and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes affecting Armenia, including (i) the alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union, (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union, and other economies—Iran and the People’s Republic of China, and (iii) the loss of beneficiary status for the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union. |
| Keywords: | gravity; Eurasian Economic Union; free trade agreements; generalised scheme of preferences; Armenia |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F17 |
| Date: | 2022–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0649&r= |
| By: | Tena Junguito, Antonio; Restrepo Estrada, María Isabel |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present for the first-time quantitative evidence of the effect of U.S. power policy on the expansion of its export market from the late-19th century to the eve of World War II. U.S. imperial policies were expressed through annexation, dominion, and gunboat policies, as did other empires, and exports to these markets grew more than three times faster than the rest of the territories. Our most relevant contribution to the discussion that power plays a critical role in international trade is based on a new geographically extensive database with information on bilateral trade flows, market size, trade costs and variables that capture U.S. political and military power. We first estimate a gravity equation to see the relationship between our political variables and U.S exports and then we present causal evidence of the role of the colonies and protectorates in the expansion of U.S exports through an event study and the estimation of a generalized difference-in-differences model. |
| Keywords: | Power politics and Us exports; Us Imperialism; 19th And 20th Century; Us international political activity |
| JEL: | F13 F54 N40 N70 |
| Date: | 2022–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:34225&r= |
| By: | Asche, Helmut |
| Abstract: | With the advent of the African Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA), regional economic integration in Africa has captured international attention and raised high hopes. In the new book "Regional Integration, Trade and Industry in Africa", the present state of economic integration on the continent is explored in the context of global trade and plans to foster industrialization. This policy brief authored by Helmut Asche summarises the book's main findings. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pegnpb:262021&r= |
| By: | Gaigné, Carl; Larue, Bruno; Zongo, Wendkouni Jean-Baptiste |
| Abstract: | We investigate two puzzles in the export duration literature. The first puzzle has to do with the frequent entries and exits of firms in export markets, which are at odds with the large fixed export costs in such markets. We introduce convex production technologies in a trade model to show how variable marginal costs create direct linkages between export markets. As fixed export costs vary across destinations, more productive firms need not necessarily export to more destinations. Cost convexity implies that the probability of supplying a given export market is adversely affected by positive export shocks in other markets. This is supported by our empirical analysis of bilateral flows for over 200 agri-food products to 176 destinations originating from six large exporting countries. The second puzzle has to do with the paradoxical effect of tariffs reported in empirical export duration studies. When endogeneity is addressed, tariffs increase the probability of an export failure. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:319672&r= |
| By: | Donal Smith; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Frank van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 has drawn renewed attention to the economic importance of cross border mobility. Frictions in cross border mobility of labour can substantially impact the economy and international trade, by causing a long-term decrease in net migration that would alter the labour supply in many economies. To capture these macro-economic and trade effects, a global macroeconomic model (NiGEM) and a general equilibrium trade model (METRO) were used to simulate a stylised scenario equivalent to a 20% reduction in net-migration accumulated over the past ten years for all economies and regions. In OECD countries, this would translate into a reduction of the overall labour supply, and this shock would shift some economic activity towards non-OECD countries. At the sectoral level, exports of labour intensive manufacturing activities in OECD countries would contract, with electronics (13% of the total reduction of exports in the long term), automobiles (12%) and pharmaceuticals (9%) among the most affected. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium model, International labour mobility, International trade, METRO model, NIGEM macroeconometric model, Sectoral economic effects |
| JEL: | F22 F47 C63 E10 N10 |
| Date: | 2022–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:259-en&r= |
| By: | Hui Xu; Yue Wu |
| Abstract: | How does import competition from China affect engagement on ESG initiatives by US corporates? On the one hand, reduced profitability due to import competition and lagging ESG performance of Chinese exporters can disincentivize US firms to put more resources to ESG initiatives. On the other hand, the shift from labor-intensive production to capital/technology-intensive production along with offshoring may improve the US company's ESG performance. Moreover, US companies have incentives to actively pursue more ESG engagement to differentiate from Chinese imports. Exploiting a trade policy in which US congress granted China the Permanent Normal Trade Relations and the resulting change in expected tariff rates on Chinese imports, we find that greater import competition from China leads to an increase in the US company's ESG performance. The improvement primarily stems from "doing more positives" and from more involvement on environmental initiatives. Indirect and direct evidence shows that the improvement is not driven by the change in production process or offshoring, but is consistent with product differentiation. Our results suggest that the trade shock from China has significant impact on the US company's ESG performance. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.12402&r= |
| By: | Hoch, Felix; Rudsinske, Jonas |
| Abstract: | We show that firm internationalization is affected by the interaction between the board of directors' female share and gender-related institutions in foreign countries. The combination of a high share of female directors and gender-discriminating institutions in a destination reduces sales in that foreign country relative to less discriminatory destinations. We deal with potential endogeneity due to omitted variable bias by including firm-year and origin-destination-year fixed effects, while an event study exploiting the appointments of new female board members addresses endogeneity due to reverse causality. This firm-level relationship transfers to the country-level when using countries' aggregate share of female directors and bilateral exports in a structural gravity framework including origin-year, destination-year and origin-destination fixed effects. Our findings suggest that institutionalized discrimination against female managers is a barrier to firm internationalization on the micro level and international trade on the macro level. This might give rise to disadvantages for female managers even in non-discriminatory countries. |
| JEL: | F14 F23 J16 M16 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:12022&r= |
| By: | Effat Ara Easmin Lucky; Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany; Mumenunnesa Keya; Md. Moshiur Rahaman; Umme Habiba Happy; Sharun Akter Khushbu; Md. Arid Hasan |
| Abstract: | By trade we usually mean the exchange of goods between states and countries. International trade acts as a barometer of the economic prosperity index and every country is overly dependent on resources, so international trade is essential. Trade is significant to the global health crisis, saving lives and livelihoods. By collecting the dataset called "Effects of COVID19 on trade" from the state website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa, we have developed a sustainable prediction process on the effects of COVID-19 in world trade using a deep learning model. In the research, we have given a 180-day trade forecast where the ups and downs of daily imports and exports have been accurately predicted in the Covid-19 period. In order to fulfill this prediction, we have taken data from 1st January 2015 to 30th May 2021 for all countries, all commodities, and all transport systems and have recovered what the world trade situation will be in the next 180 days during the Covid-19 period. The deep learning method has received equal attention from both investors and researchers in the field of in-depth observation. This study predicts global trade using the Long-Short Term Memory. Time series analysis can be useful to see how a given asset, security, or economy changes over time. Time series analysis plays an important role in past analysis to get different predictions of the future and it can be observed that some factors affect a particular variable from period to period. Through the time series it is possible to observe how various economic changes or trade effects change over time. By reviewing these changes, one can be aware of the steps to be taken in the future and a country can be more careful in terms of imports and exports accordingly. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given a very gracious thought of the future world import and export situation in terms of trade. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.12291&r= |
| By: | C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Jos\'e Lages; Leonardo Ermann; Dima L. Shepelyansky |
| Abstract: | Using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform the Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018-2020 comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms -- the PageRank, the CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix -- take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links providing new insights on the international trade comparing to the usual import-export analysis. These algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering every countries on equal grounds, independently of their wealth, and every products on the basis of their relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occur for the year 2020 highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank-CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.07737&r= |
| By: | Ngo Van Long |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits trade theory under the Gossenian theme that consumption takes time. We show how the substitutability between time-intensive household-produced consumption goods and time-saving commercially produced consumption goods (which save households’ consumption and production time) together with capital accumulation can lead to an increase in trash and in international trade in trash. The applicability of the standard gains from trade theorems is shown to be compromised by the externalities associated with international trade in trash between North and South. Under some parameter values, South is better off under autarky than under free trade in trash and the gains from trade by North is not sufficient to compensate South’s loss from trade. Cet article étudie le commerce international des déchets, en tenant compte du thème gossenien selon lequel la consommation prend du temps. Nous montrons comment la substituabilité entre les biens de consommation produits par les ménages à forte intensité de temps et les biens de consommation produits commercialement qui font gagner du temps ainsi que l'accumulation de capital peuvent conduire à une augmentation des déchets et du commerce international des déchets. L'applicabilité des théorèmes de gains du commerce international est compromise par les externalités associées au commerce des déchets entre le Nord et le Sud. Sous certaines valeurs de paramètres, le bien-être du Sud en autarcie est supérieur à celui en libre-échange et les gains du Nord ne sont pas suffisants pour compenser la perte du Sud. |
| Keywords: | Trade in trash,gains from trade,household production,North South trade,the economics of time management, Commerce des déchets,gains d'échange,production domestique,Commerce Nord Sud,l'économie de la gestion du temps |
| JEL: | F18 F13 D1 |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-43&r= |
| By: | Chen, Eric R. |
| Abstract: | As cryptocurrencies develop and circulate at greater rates, countries have appeared to consider the technology as an adoptable medium of exchange. By expanding the influence of cryptocurrencies through adoption, countries raise its impact on the global economy. This paper is the first to apply an augmented version of the gravity model to examine the effects of global cryptocurrency adoption on international trade. This empirical study involves aggregating datasets on U.S. bilateral trade flows, gravity variable statistics, and the adoption of cryptocurrencies. In application of the gravity model, regression analyses are used on the aggregated data to test the magnitude of cryptocurrencies’ impact on trade. Based on the overall findings, the variables for cryptocurrency adoption produce negative coefficients suggesting a negative correlation between the adoption of cryptocurrencies and international trade. The central tendency in the empirical evidence offers the interpretation that countries with weak institutions to promote trade are more likely to adopt cryptocurrencies resulting in a negative association between cryptocurrency adoption and trade. |
| Date: | 2021–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cefj9&r= |
| By: | Baris, Kristina (Asian Development Bank); Crisostomo, Ma. Charmaine (Asian Development Bank); Garay, Krizia Anne (Asian Development Bank); Jabagat, Christian Regie (Asian Development Bank); Mariasingham, Mahinthan (Asian Development Bank); Mores, Elyssa Mariel (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In a highly integrated global economy, linkages of domestic sectors to global trade measure an economy’s ability to gain from participating in global value chains. On the other hand, the strength of domestic linkages can provide insights on an economy's cross-industry trade and extent of the localization of economic activity. This paper proposes a measure of domestic linkages based on a value added approach. Using the Asian Development Bank’s multiregional input–output table from 2000 and 2007 to 2020, this paper estimates a backward agglomeration index, which measures the extent to which different sectors in the economy source value added from domestic sectors for domestic consumption. An analogous forward agglomeration index, which measures the extent to which domestic sectors absorb value added, is also defined. The combinations of backward and forward agglomeration indexes are consequently used to analyze an economy or a sector’s agglomeration status. The agglomeration indexes show a positive correlation with existing reshoring indexes, and a negative correlation with global value chain participation. The indexes are further extended to account for distribution of activities within domestic sectors. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; value added; globalization; multiregional input–output table; global value chains |
| JEL: | D24 D57 F15 O14 |
| Date: | 2022–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0647&r= |
| By: | Celine de Quatrebarbes (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Bertrand Laporte (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Stéphane Calipel (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | As happened in West Africa in 2008, in an imported inflation context, it is common for the governments to take short-term tax action to protect the poor: VAT or trade tariffs exemptions. As part of the tax-tariff transition, the comparison between Trade tariffs and VAT has already been the subject of much works. The introduction of VAT, as a tax on final consumption, is supposed to be optimal, due to its economically neutral aspect for production decisions. However, some authors show that in developing countries, a large informal sector affects this result. In this paper, we use a CGE model and a micro-simulation model to compare the effects of VAT and Trade tariffs exemptions to combat rising agricultural food prices. The approach is innovative because it integrates how VAT works in developing countries (VAT increases production costs for some producers), in a context of imperfect competition for the service of marketing products. Results show that VAT exemptions are more effective than Trade tariffs exemptions in limiting the effects of the rise in world prices on poverty in Niger. In the context of the current increase in food prices linked to the Covid-19 crisis (FAO, 2020), this issues may one again be in the limelight for the African governments. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium model,Imperfect competition,Indirect taxes,Poverty,Niger |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03138369&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Bruce Muneaki Iwadate; Andreas Schrimpf; Alexander F. Wagner |
| Abstract: | Although real integration conceptually plays an important role for the comovement of international equity markets, documenting this link empirically has proven challenging. We construct a new dataset of theory-guided, relevant measures of bilateral trade in final and intermediate goods and services. With these measures, we provide evidence of a strong link between changes in real integration – in particular global value chains – and equity market comovement. This also holds when controlling for financial openness and other factors that could confound the role of real openness. These results suggest that supply chain disruptions, for instance due to political tensions and the COVID-19 crisis, might also affect the interconnections between stock markets via rippling through the global production network. |
| Keywords: | financial integration, global value chains, international asset pricing, international trade, real integration, spillovers, stock market comovement, supply chains. |
| JEL: | F10 F36 F65 G10 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1003&r= |
| By: | Uri Dadush |
| Abstract: | The author is grateful to Bruegel colleagues, especially Marek Dabrowski, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff, for useful comments. The world trading system is reeling from the trade war between China and the United States, the disabling of the World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlement Understanding and repeated rule-breaking by WTO members. This does not mean the end of the post-war system, but it is being transformed into a more complex, politicised... |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:47269&r= |
| By: | Owusu, Solomon (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and German Development Institute, and University of Oxford); Ndubuisi, Gideon (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and German Development Institute); Mensah, Emmanuel. B. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and GGDC, University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | Exposure to import competition can either help or hurt domestic employment creation. There is, however, a dearth of cross-country empirical evidence assessing labor market effects of import penetration in Africa. This paper fills this gap. Using manufacturing industry and establishment-level data across 20 African countries and estimating a conditional and unconditional labor demand model, we find an unambiguous employment creation effect of intermediate good import penetration, whilst final good import penetration has a negative, or at best, an insignificant effect on employment. Splitting intermediate good import penetration into their origins, we find that intermediate good import penetration from developed (developing) countries is employment increasing (reducing). Further analyses reveal that the positive employment effects of intermediate import penetration from developed countries disproportionately benefit the skilled workforce. We also find that industries with higher absorptive capacity stand to gain more from intermediate good import penetration from developed countries, with the negative effects of intermediate good import penetration from developing countries also diminished for these industries. We discuss the implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | Import Penetration, Employment, Absorptive Capacity, Manufacturing, Africa |
| JEL: | F11 F14 L25 L60 O14 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022007&r= |
| By: | Gu, Ke; Stoyanov, Andrey |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of spatial variation in female labor supply on international trade flows. We identify the set of gender-specific skills and argue that low female labor supply reduces the endowment of female-oriented skills and undermines comparative advantage in industries which use female labor intensively. We confirm this hypothesis using two different settings. First, we show that countries with low female labor supply, measured by female labor force participation, have comparative disadvantage in female-labor-intensive industries. To establish causality, we instrument female labor supply with cross-country differences in cultural values regarding the role of women in society. Second, we confirm the main hypothesis on trade data from Chinese regions. Using spatial variation in sex ratios resulting from the One Child Policy (OCP), we rely on the stringency of OCP as an exogenous female labor supply shifter. Other things equal, regions with higher female population share specialize in industries which use female labor intensively. We interpret our results as highlighting the importance of labor force gender composition for industry's productivity. Our results imply that the effect of gender imbalances in labor supply on labor market outcomes, observed in many parts of the world, can be mitigated through international trade by utilizing relatively abundant type of labor in export-oriented industries. |
| Keywords: | Female labor supply, comparative advantage, international trade, gender-dependent skills, China's one child policy, altered sex ratios |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111778&r= |
| By: | Grégoire Rota-Graziosi (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Rabah Arezki; Alou Adesse Dama (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the dynamic effects of trade liberalization on tax revenue using a worldwide panel dataset. Results point to statistically significant negative effect of liberalization on (non- resource) tax revenues in the short term and no significant effect in the medium term. Liberalization also alter the tax structure tilting revenues toward indirect taxes away from direct ones. Economies which have implemented value added taxes prior to liberalization have mitigated its negative effects on tax revenues. The evidence is supportive of the complementarity role of state capacity to reap the benefits of liberalization. |
| Keywords: | Tax,Tax structures,Openness,Liberalization,Natural resources |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03265604&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer (Bank for International Settlements (BIS)); Bruce Muneaki Iwadate (CUNY Baruch College); Andreas Schrimpf (Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department; CREATES - Aarhus University); Alexander F. Wagner (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | Although real integration conceptually plays an important role for the comovement of international equity markets, documenting this link empirically has proven challenging. We construct a new dataset of theory-guided, relevant measures of bilateral trade in final and intermediate goods and services. With these measures, we provide evidence of a strong link between changes in real integration – in particular global value chains – and equity market comovement. This also holds when controlling for financial openness and other factors that could confound the role of real openness. These results suggest that supply chain disruptions, for instance due to political tensions and the COVID-19 crisis, might also affect the interconnections between stock markets via rippling through the global production network. |
| Keywords: | financial integration, global value chains, international asset pricing, international trade, real integration, spillovers, stock market comovement, supply chains |
| JEL: | F10 F36 F65 G10 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2218&r= |
| By: | Okafor, Samson; Ekesiobi, Chukwunonso; Ifebi, Ogonna; Dimnwobi, Stephen; Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | Aware of the nature of deficits in the current account, fiscal account, and the financial account balances of the countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, this inquiry assessed the relationship between these deficits and the implication of such relationship for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). To do this, the study adopted panel data analysis techniques using the Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) specifications to test for the Triple Deficit Hypothesis (TDH) in the region. The findings of the study revealed the presence of the TDH in SSA where bidirectional causality exists between current account balance and budget balance, and between saving gap and current account balance, with a unidirectional causality running from budget balance to saving gap. The adoption of sound fiscal, monetary, and trade interventions in the region constitutes the major policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Triple Deficit Hypothesis; Sub-Saharan Africa; African Continental Free Trade Area |
| JEL: | C5 O1 O55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111839&r= |
| By: | Zamani, Omid; Chibanda, Craig; Pelikan, Janine |
| Abstract: | Due to the Avian Influenza outbreak in Europe, Ghana has imposed an import ban on some European countries. This paper analyses the potential effects of this partial ban on Ghanaian chicken producers and agricultural trade. Due to the growing support for a total ban on poultry imports by various value chain actors, we also analyze the impact of a complete ban on Ghana's poultry imports. We apply an integrated method covering General Equilibrium and typical farm analysis. Our findings show that the partial ban has a lower governmental cost compared with the total ban. Nevertheless, the effect of a total ban on domestic producers is more significant. Moreover, a total import ban increases production mainly for the large-scale integrated farms in Ghana. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317063&r= |
| By: | Raphael Auer; Ariel Burstein; Sarah M Lein; Jonathan Vogel |
| Abstract: | What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices, most analyses focus on variation across households in initial expenditure shares on imported goods. However, the unequal welfare effects of non-marginal foreign price changes also depend on differences in how consumers substitute between imported and domestic goods, on which there is scant evidence. Using data from Switzerland surrounding the 2015 appreciation of the Swiss franc, we provide evidence that lower income households have higher price elasticities. These differences in elasticities contribute significantly to the unequal welfare effects of large import price changes. |
| Keywords: | expenditure switching, large exchange rate shocks, gains from trade. |
| JEL: | E3 F1 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1001&r= |
| By: | Christian Friedrich; Peter Selcuk |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the impact of globalization and digitalization on the Phillips curve in a sample of 18 advanced economies over two decades. Using industry-level data from the World and EU KLEMS databases, we first estimate country-industry-specific Phillips curves for each decade by relating the growth rate of output prices to lagged inflation and an employment gap. We then assess the relative impact of globalization and digitalization on the slope coefficients of these Phillips curves, which represent the sensitivity of inflation to economic slack. We measure globalization by increases in trade and financial integration and digitalization by the use of industrial robots as a share of a country’s population. We find that globalization significantly reduces the slope of the Phillips curve, while digitalization has the opposite effect. We also find some evidence that globalization decreases the intercept of the Phillips curve and that digitalization increases it. Evidence for the impact of both trends on employment is less conclusive. When investigating the associated transmission channels for both trends in the context of our slope analysis, we find that the negative impact of globalization on the slope coefficient of the Phillips curve is muted in industries that experience a high growth rate of total factor productivity and that the positive impact of digitalization is muted in industries that have seen high investments in IT capital in the past. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Inflation and prices; International topics; Labour markets; Recent economic and financial developments; Trade integration |
| JEL: | E32 F6 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-7&r= |
| By: | Arogundade, Sodiq |
| Abstract: | This study examines the spatial impact of FDI on the poverty of 44 African countries. In achieving this, the study uses the Driscoll-Kraay fixed effect instrumental variable regression, instrumental variable generalised method of moments estimator (IV-GMM), and the spatial durbin model. The empirical investigation of this study yielded four significant findings: (1) neighbouring countries’ FDI has a positive and significant impact on the incidence and intensity of host country’s poverty. (2) Improved institutional quality in neighbouring countries has a significant impact on FDI-poverty reduction nexus of the host country. (3) the empirical results lend support for a significant spatial spillover of poverty in the region. (4) the marginal effect results indicate that countries within the region are no longer in isolation or independent, i.e., the level of poverty in a particular country is influenced by its determinants in the neighbouring country. This result is robust to the alternative proximity matrix, which is the inverse distance. Since there is spatial interdependence among African countries, we recommend that African governments through the African Union (AU) should not only champion the institutional reform in the region, but also establish a binding mechanism to ensure reform implementation. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Driscoll-Kraay fixed effect instrumental variable regression, IV-GMM, Spatial Durbin Model, Poverty, Institutional quality, Africa |
| JEL: | F00 F3 F30 P0 P00 |
| Date: | 2021–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:111789&r= |
| By: | Dolan, Lindsay; Kubinec, Robert (New York University Abu Dhabi); Nielson, Daniel; Zhang, Jack |
| Abstract: | Despite the harmful consequences of the U.S-China trade war, only a handful of firms took collective action to oppose it. To understand why, we implemented a field experiment in which we randomly provided detailed estimates of the costs of the trade war to U.S. company managers and measured their willingness to take actions either opposing or supporting the trade war. While overall our treatment counter-intuitively reduced opposition to the trade war, these effects were highly conditional on respondents' prior beliefs and the number of tariffs in their industry. The treatment increased opposition the most among subjects in industries with substantial tariffs who also thought the trade war was harmful. However, it decreased opposition among subjects who held neutral beliefs about the trade war. Finally, we find that a company’s political culture strongly predicts their political activity, suggesting political ideology and not just a company’s business interests shape corporate behavior. |
| Date: | 2021–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:435u9&r= |
| By: | Camille Laville (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, 1,300 people were killed and 300,000 displaced as a result of herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. These tensions threaten the already weakened security, economic development and food security in Western Africa. Indeed, cross-border transhumance of herders during the dry season is an important economic activity recognized by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This practice is also an important adaptation strategy to climate change for Sahelian States that have developed a comparative advantage in producing and exporting livestock. However, the establishment of a harmonized legal framework surrounding this practice is hampered by coordination failures between Coastal States (primary receivers of livestock flows) and the Sahelian States (primary providers of livestock flows). The growth of the Nigerian agricultural sector through the expansion of agricultural land threatens the last open pastures and transhumance corridors. Indeed, Nigeria faces a scarcity of arable land for a growing rural population. Is competition for the remaining Nigerian grassland a factor of violence between nomadic herders from Niger and Nigerian farmers? Recent empirical evidence suggests that climate-induced migration of herders to nearby agricultural areas (short transhumance) is associated with a higher risk of herder-farmer conflict for the remaining pastoral resources. However, no analysis has been made on the case of lengthy and costly transhumance. This article analyses the security implications of cross-border transhumance between Niger and Nigeria at the scale of 0.5x0.5 degree cells between 2006 and 2016. Using spatial panel techniques and satellite data on land cover, it questions the importance of grassland grabbing strategies as a cause of the recent herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria. The obtained results hardly coincide with the idea that transhumant herders from Niger enter into conflict with Nigerian farmers over the grabbing of the last grazing resources. Ultimately, the economy of Sahelian countries, which depends on livestock trade, is threatened by a political instrumentalization of herder-farmer conflicts through the rhetoric of "invaders against farmers." |
| Abstract: | Pour l'année 2018, le bilan estimé des affrontements entre éleveurs et agriculteurs au Nigéria est de 1 300 victimes et 300 000 personnes déplacées. Ces tensions menacent la stabilité, le développement économique et la sécurité alimentaire déjà affaiblis en Afrique de l'Ouest. En effet, la transhumance transfrontalière des éleveurs pendant la saison sèche est une activité économique dont l'importance régionale est reconnue par la Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO). Cette pratique relève également d'une stratégie d'adaptation au changement climatique essentielle pour les États sahéliens qui ont développé un avantage comparatif dans la production et l'exportation de bétail avec leurs voisins. Cependant, la mise en place d'un cadre juridique harmonisé autour de cette pratique est entravée par des problèmes de coordination entre les États côtiers (principaux destinataires des flux de bétail) et les États sahéliens (principaux fournisseurs de flux de bétail). La croissance du secteur agricole nigérian par l'expansion des terres agricoles menace les derniers pâturages ouverts et les couloirs de transhumance. En effet, le Nigéria est confronté à une pénurie de terres arables pour une population rurale croissante. La concurrence pour les derniers pâturages nigérians est-elle un facteur de violence entre les éleveurs nomades du Niger et les agriculteurs nigérians ? Des preuves empiriques récentes suggèrent que la migration des éleveurs induite par le climat dans les zones agricoles voisines (courte transhumance) est associée à un risque plus élevé de conflit éleveur-agriculteur pour les ressources pastorales restantes. Cependant, aucune analyse n'a été faite sur la question de l'accès aux pâturages lors de transhumances longues et coûteuses. Cet article analyse les implications sécuritaires de la transhumance transfrontalière entre le Niger et le Nigéria à l'échelle de cellules de 0,5x0,5 degrés entre 2006 et 2016. En utilisant des techniques de panel spatial et des données satellitaires sur la couverture terrestre, il questionne l'importance des stratégies d'accaparement des prairies comme une cause des récents conflits éleveurs-agriculteurs au Nigéria. Les résultats obtenus coïncident peu avec l'idée que les éleveurs transhumants depuis le Niger entrent en conflits avec les agriculteurs Nigérian pour l'accaparement des dernières ressources en pâturage. In fine, l'économie des pays sahéliens liée au commerce du bétail est menacée par l'instrumentalisation politique du conflit entre éleveurs et agriculteurs passant par l'utilisation de la rhétorique "envahisseurs versus agriculteurs". |
| Keywords: | Niger,Nigeria,Climate change,Agriculture,Migration |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03350202&r= |
| By: | Simone Bertoli (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Jesús FernÁndez-Huertas Moraga; Lucas Guichard |
| Abstract: | International migration decisions and costly information acquisition Migrants are confronted with the uncertainty about the returns that the might enjoy in the various destinations, and they can decide to gather information in order to reduce this uncertainty. Including costly information acquisition in the location-choice problem that migrants face allows us to refine our understanding of the pro-cyclical character of international migration flows. Read in french(/toutes-les-actualites/zoom-sur-la-recherche/migrations-internationales-et-acquisition-dinformations-218587.kjsp?RH=1505391225734#/admin) The decision about whether and where to migrate is portrayed as an investment decision that reflects a |
| Abstract: | Face à l'incertitude concernant les retours qu'ils pourraient obtenir dans les différents pays d'accueil, les migrants peuvent choisir de collecter des informations pour réduire cette incertitude. La prise en compte de la possibilité d'acquérir des informations dans un modèle qui décrit le choix de la destination des migrants nous permet de peaufiner notre analyse du caractère pro-cyclique des flux migratoires internationaux. |
| Keywords: | Migration internationale |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03514063&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : Discrimination against the approximately 500,000 African (mostly irregular) immigrants has recently spread in China. During the corona pandemic, it degenerates into a true Afrophobia. Shortly before, five Nigerians in Guangzhou had reportedly tested positive for Covid-19. Africans are widely accused as drug traffickers and criminals. Also, they would endanger China's global competitiveness for Africa's resources through media baiting abroad. Current reports testify the displacement of African migrants from homes and hotels in Guangzhou (Canton), where most of the Africans live. They are dependent on informal, mostly illegal networks in order to be able to stay in the country. In online social networks Afrophobia as cyber racism is particularly pronounced. Thereby, racism is more deeply rooted in the mentality of many Chinese than is commonly assumed. According to a traditional Chinese proverb, the greatest evil to be avoided is ‘the destroyed nation and the annihilated race’. In addition, since 2005 land-grabbing by Chinese entrepreneurs in sub-Saharan Africa arose international attention. Its main purpose is to ensure food security in China and to profit from international grain speculation. It was racially legitimized from the start, with slogans such as, only Chinese investments could save Africans from their traditional ‘laziness’. This repeats deeply rooted neo-colonial European prejudices of a ‘wild, ahistoric and uncivilized Africa’. The prejudices are still associated with a feeling of racial superiority. The social fabric of China has always embodied essential characteristics of the exclusion of ‘foreigners’, focused on ethnicity, race, religion, sexual orientation and gender. The African Union, various African governments and even the United States have sharply criticized Beijing for mistreating migrants, particularly those from Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and Uganda. Racist attacks on Africans in China have an oppressively long tradition, associated with the expansion of bilateral Chinese petty trade in sub-Saharan Africa in the early 2000s and the subsequent influx of African petty traders into China. RÉSUMÉ : La discrimination à l'encontre des quelque 500 000 immigrés africains (pour la plupart irréguliers) s'est récemment répandue en Chine. Pendant la pandémie de corona, cela dégénère en une véritable afrophobie. Peu de temps auparavant, cinq Nigérians de Guangzhou auraient été testés positifs pour Covid-19. Les Africains sont largement accusés d'être des trafiquants de drogue et des criminels. En outre, ils mettraient en danger la compétitivité mondiale de la Chine pour les ressources de l'Afrique par le biais du dénigrement médiatiques à l'étranger. Les rapports actuels témoignent du déplacement des migrants africains des maisons et des hôtels de Guangzhou (Canton), où vivent la plupart des Africains. Ils dépendent de réseaux informels, pour la plupart illégaux, pour pouvoir rester dans le pays. Dans les réseaux sociaux en ligne, l'afrophobie et le cyber-racisme sont particulièrement prononcés. Ainsi, le racisme est plus profondément enraciné dans la mentalité de nombreux Chinois qu'on ne le pense généralement. Selon un proverbe chinois traditionnel, le plus grand mal à éviter est « la nation détruite et la race anéantie ». En outre, depuis 2005, l'accaparement des terres par des entrepreneurs chinois en Afrique subsaharienne a attiré l'attention de la communauté internationale. Son objectif principal est d'assurer la sécurité alimentaire en Chine et de profiter de la spéculation céréalière internationale. Il a été légitimé racialement dès le départ, avec des slogans tels que, seuls les investissements chinois pouvaient sauver les Africains de leur « paresse » traditionnelle. |
| Date: | 2022–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cmdxs&r= |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : Discrimination against the approximately 500,000 African (mostly irregular) immigrants has recently spread in China. During the corona pandemic, it degenerates into a true Afrophobia. Shortly before, five Nigerians in Guangzhou had reportedly tested positive for Covid-19. Africans are widely accused as drug traffickers and criminals. Also, they would endanger China's global competitiveness for Africa's resources through media baiting abroad. Current reports testify the displacement of African migrants from homes and hotels in Guangzhou (Canton), where most of the Africans live. They are dependent on informal, mostly illegal networks in order to be able to stay in the country. In online social networks Afrophobia as cyber racism is particularly pronounced. Thereby, racism is more deeply rooted in the mentality of many Chinese than is commonly assumed. According to a traditional Chinese proverb, the greatest evil to be avoided is ‘the destroyed nation and the annihilated race’. In addition, since 2005 land-grabbing by Chinese entrepreneurs in sub-Saharan Africa arose international attention. Its main purpose is to ensure food security in China and to profit from international grain speculation. It was racially legitimized from the start, with slogans such as, only Chinese investments could save Africans from their traditional ‘laziness’. This repeats deeply rooted neo-colonial European prejudices of a ‘wild, ahistoric and uncivilized Africa’. The prejudices are still associated with a feeling of racial superiority. The social fabric of China has always embodied essential characteristics of the exclusion of ‘foreigners’, focused on ethnicity, race, religion, sexual orientation and gender. The African Union, various African governments and even the United States have sharply criticized Beijing for mistreating migrants, particularly those from Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and Uganda. Racist attacks on Africans in China have an oppressively long tradition, associated with the expansion of bilateral Chinese petty trade in sub-Saharan Africa in the early 2000s and the subsequent influx of African petty traders into China. RÉSUMÉ : La discrimination à l'encontre des quelque 500 000 immigrés africains (pour la plupart irréguliers) s'est récemment répandue en Chine. Pendant la pandémie de corona, cela dégénère en une véritable afrophobie. Peu de temps auparavant, cinq Nigérians de Guangzhou auraient été testés positifs pour Covid-19. Les Africains sont largement accusés d'être des trafiquants de drogue et des criminels. En outre, ils mettraient en danger la compétitivité mondiale de la Chine pour les ressources de l'Afrique par le biais du dénigrement médiatiques à l'étranger. Les rapports actuels témoignent du déplacement des migrants africains des maisons et des hôtels de Guangzhou (Canton), où vivent la plupart des Africains. Ils dépendent de réseaux informels, pour la plupart illégaux, pour pouvoir rester dans le pays. Dans les réseaux sociaux en ligne, l'afrophobie et le cyber-racisme sont particulièrement prononcés. Ainsi, le racisme est plus profondément enraciné dans la mentalité de nombreux Chinois qu'on ne le pense généralement. Selon un proverbe chinois traditionnel, le plus grand mal à éviter est « la nation détruite et la race anéantie ». En outre, depuis 2005, l'accaparement des terres par des entrepreneurs chinois en Afrique subsaharienne a attiré l'attention de la communauté internationale. Son objectif principal est d'assurer la sécurité alimentaire en Chine et de profiter de la spéculation céréalière internationale. Il a été légitimé racialement dès le départ, avec des slogans tels que, seuls les investissements chinois pouvaient sauver les Africains de leur « paresse » traditionnelle. |
| Date: | 2022–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ugcq6&r= |
| By: | Spiegel, Alisa; Fournier Gabela, Julio G.; Heidecke, Claudia; Söder, Mareike; Freund, Florian; Gocht, Alexander; Banse, Martin |
| Abstract: | Many national climate policies are already using or planning to implement different carbon pricing schemes aiming to reach climate mitigation target efficiently. Inadequate international cooperation, however, can lead to emission leakage. To prevent this, several concepts of border carbon adjustment (BCA) have been developed for the energy sector. Despite the significant role of agriculture in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ongoing debates on agri-food carbon pricing, to date, there is no concrete BCA proposal for the agricultural sector. Our qualitative research aims to derive alternative agri-food BCA designs discussing on potential bottlenecks and suggesting solutions, while hypothesizing on potential effects of a BCA on GHG emission, trade balance, land use, and welfare. We conclude with outlining quantitative model-based research required to assess alternative agri-food BCA designs and to test the derived hypotheses. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2021–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi21:317084&r= |
| By: | Marcus Rösch (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Michiel Gerritse (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Bas Karreman (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Frank van Oort (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Bart Loog (Statistics Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | We decompose the wage premium after foreign acquisitions of Dutch domestic firms into the con- stituent firm- and worker-level premia. Firm-level premia grow up to 3.5%, accounting for the major- ity of the acquisition premium. Worker-level premia by contrast, grow up to 1% and only materialize with delay, as the acquired firms hire workers with higher earnings capacity than domestic firms. Within firms, premia are also higher for workers with a relatively high earnings capacity. Though in- dustry variation and firm size class heterogeneity is considerable, the dominance of firm-level premia suggests that foreign acquisitions change firms beyond a workforce reshuffling. |
| Keywords: | multinational firms, foreign acquisition, wage components, labor mobility, matched employer-employee data, AKM |
| JEL: | J31 F23 G34 |
| Date: | 2022–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20220014&r= |
| By: | Fenwick, Clare (Studio Europe Maastricht, RS: Studio Europa Maastricht, Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark) |
| Abstract: | Freedom of movement is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU) and yet this key pillar of European integration has become a topic of controversy as member states find their labour markets under pressure. This article examines key trends in intra-EU labour migration and explores what existing migration data has to offer researchers studying EU migration related research questions. |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2022–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2022003&r= |
| By: | Assen Slim (CREE EA 4513 - Centre de recherches Europes-Eurasie - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales, Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Brexit, desire for independence in Catalonia, weaknesses of the Eurozone, solidarity crisis resulting from the migrant crisis, etc. The incessant crises rise shaking the European Union (EU) are gradually rising the idea of its potential "disintegration". Since there is no any theory of international economic disintegration, this paper examines the opportunity to use the "exact reversal method". It is about "reversing" the concepts forged for the understanding of regional economic integration. This original method rises theoretical, methodological and practical constraints. These constraints, as well as the results of the method are discussed in the paper. |
| Abstract: | Brexit, volonté d'indépendance de la Catalogne, fragilités de la zone euro, crise de solidarité provoquée par l'arrivée importante des migrants, etc. Les crises incessantes qui traversent l'Union européenne (UE) laissent désormais entrevoir sa possible « désintégration ». Partant du constat qu'il n'existe aucune théorie économique de la désintégration régionale, ce texte se propose d'étudier l'opportunité d'en poser les bases en s'appuyant sur la méthode d'« exacte inversion ». Il s'agira de formuler de nouveaux concepts en inversant ceux forgés pour l'étude de l'intégration régionale. Cette méthode originale pose des contraintes tant théoriques, méthodologiques que pratiques. Ces contraintes, ainsi que les résultats de l'application de cette méthode à l'UE sont discutés. Mots-clés : intégration, désintégration, méthode de l'exact inversion |
| Keywords: | Integration,Disintegration,exact reversal method,integration,désintegration,méthode de l'exacte inversion |
| Date: | 2020–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03518267&r= |
| By: | Javier Garcia-Bernardo; Petr Jansk\'y |
| Abstract: | We exploit the new multinational corporations' country-by-country reporting data with unparalleled country coverage to study the distributional consequences of profit shifting to tax havens. We find that countries with lower incomes tend to lose more tax revenue relative to total tax revenues. We estimate that multinational corporations worldwide shifted up to US\$1 trillion of profits in 2016. We further establish that corporations headquartered in the United States and China shift profits most aggressively and that the Cayman Islands is the largest tax haven. In terms of methodology, we show that a logarithmic function is preferable to linear and quadratic ones for modelling the extremely non-linear relationship between profits and tax rates. Although their estimates of the global scale of profit shifting are similar, they differ substantially at country level: the logarithmic function points to profits being shifted considerably more to countries with zero or very low effective tax rates. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2201.08444&r= |
| By: | Mensah, Charles; Enahoro, Dolapo |
| Abstract: | • This study explores how regional-level interactions of livestock and crop sectors influence the capacity of a southern Africa sub-region to meet its future demand for livestock-derived foods. • It uses a spatial equilibrium modeling framework to simulate regional trade in poultry and maize products in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. • Model outputs on the demand, production, and trade of poultry products and maize are compared for a baseline and an alternative future scenario representing drought conditions. • The study’s abstraction of a regional approach to livestock and feed sector interactions in the selected region highlights the role of markets in addressing cross-boundary challenges related to food demand expansion and resource management. • Results imply that the study countries could benefit from addressing their growing demands for livestock-derived foods using a harmonized approach. Further, regional livestock markets may offer cushioning effects to the impacts of climate change in at least one of the countries. • However, improved quality data and an enhanced specification of the analytical model to better account for the nuances of livestock and feed trade in the region and for varied scenarios of future climate change will be needed, to extend the current study to practical policy application. |
| Date: | 2022–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ehd3j&r= |
| By: | Natalia Vershinina (Audencia Business School); Allan Discua Cruz |
| Abstract: | In this paper we offer a scholarly reflection about the value of the ethnographic methods for studying migrant entrepreneurship, specifically through the lens of our own migration experiences. Our positionalities and subjectivities embedded in being migrants and researchers offer this opportunity for the in-depth reflection. Specifically, we examine what varieties of ethnographic research methods offer as well as what limitations these methods bring if adopted within migrant entrepreneurship research. We argue that specific ethnographic practice-based methods have the capacity to reveal the rich social context of migrant entrepreneurship, which can supplement the theoretical perspectives. We adopt two illustrations to highlight the relevance of ethnographic methodologies to studying migrant entrepreneurship. The contribution this study offers is in suggesting new methods that allow for fresh understanding of the complex narratives of migration dynamics to emerge. This study shows how narratives intertwine with migrants' stories of entrepreneurship and offers guidance for future research. |
| Keywords: | migrant entrepreneurship,autoethnography,ethnography,reflexivity,researcher positionality,context |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03275304&r= |
| By: | Benny Kleinman (Princeton University); Ernest Liu (Princeton University); Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University and CEPR and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic spatial model with forward-looking investment and migration. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of the steady-state equilibrium; generalize existing dynamic exact-hat algebra techniques to incorporate investment; and linearize the model to provide an analytical characterization of the economy’s transition path using spectral analysis. We show that U.S. states are closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period in 2015 than during the prior five decades. We !nd that much of the observed decline in the rate of income convergence across US states is explained by gradual adjustment given initial conditions, rather than by shocks to fundamentals, and that both capital and labor dynamics contribute to this gradual adjustment. We show that capital and labor dynamics interact with one another to generate slow and heterogeneous rates of convergence to steady-state. |
| Keywords: | spatial dynamics, economic geography, trade, migration |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F50 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2021-31&r= |
| By: | Md Nazmus Sadekin (Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University); Most Asikha Aktar (Comilla University); Md. Mahmudul Alam (UUM - Universiti Utara Malaysia) |
| Abstract: | This is a pre-publication copy. The published article is copyrighted by the publisher. Contribution of Fair Trade in Sustainable Development Definition "Fair trade is a model for alleviating global poverty. Many companies and markets are investing, impacting developing communities. From building sustainable businesses to providing education, the movement is life-changing for those living in poor communities around the world".-Brandi Gomez Fair Trade (FT) is a societal movement that aims to support poor and vulnerable producers in developing nations to attain improved trading conditions with direct link to consumers and excluding mediators in the trading chain (Young and Utting 2005). Therefore FT allows poor producers to be part of a trading organization that make sure a fair and steady price for their products. It also provides them and their systems different level of backing facilities and stimulates sustainable environment. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03520078&r= |
| By: | Riccardo Di Clemente; Bal\'azs Lengyel; Lars F. Andersson; Rikard Eriksson |
| Abstract: | Core objectives of the European integration are convergence and economic growth, but these are challenged by competition and value chain asymmetries within the common market. A difficult challenge for the EU is how to harmonize specialization of industries and countries to reach global competitiveness, and at the same time bridge productivity differences across more and less developed countries. Here, we develop a novel bipartite network approach and trace pairwise co-specialization, by applying the widely used revealed comparative advantage (RCA) method, within and between EU15 and Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states from 2000. This new co-specialization approach can be used to assess redundancies and division in the system as a whole, and at the level of industries and countries as well. This latter feature enables us to investigate how co-specialization across countries impact economic growth. We find significant overlap of RCA among CEE countries but a diverging RCA structure between EU15 and CEE. Our econometric analysis indicates that productivity increases in those CEE industries that have co-specialized with other CEE countries after EU accession, while co-specialization across CEE and EU15 countries is less related to productivity growth. These results inform European policy that a division of sectoral specialization can lead to productivity convergence between EU15 and CEE member states. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2202.01080&r= |
| By: | Verhoeven, Loesje (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University); Ritzen, Jo (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Institutional trust and interpersonal trust are supposedly threatened by globalisation. In a case study of twelve countries in Northern- and Western Europe, however, we show that the substantial globalisation of the first two decades of the 21st century has contributed to institutional trust and - less significant - to interpersonal trust. This relation is non-linear. The "usual suspects" of income inequality and diversity have decreased institutional and interpersonal trust. Only specific Government expenditures (education and culture) have contributed to trust, more so in combination with high quality of institutions. High trusting countries (compared to Austria) turn out to be: France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The positive effect of globalization on trust is "carried" by the higher educated and those with higher incomes. |
| Keywords: | Globalisation, Social Cohesion, Institutional Trust, Interpersonal trust, Diversity, Inequality, Government Expenditure, Government Intervention |
| JEL: | F15 F68 D31 D78 E61 H5 O24 O52 |
| Date: | 2022–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022005&r= |
| By: | Eckert, Sandra |
| Abstract: | Joint Institutional Frameworks in bilateral relations are circumscribed in policy scope, can lack adequate instruments for dynamic adaptation and provide limited access to decision-making processes internal to the contracting parties. Informal governance, the involvement of private actors as well as rules such as equivalence provide avenues to remedy these limits in bilateral relations in sectoral governance. Through bilateral agreements, the scope of territoriallybound political authority is expanded. The formalised and institutionalised frameworks and bodies established are, however, frequently accompanied by mechanisms of informal cooperation and special rules either to cover policy fields where no contractual relation exists, to provide for flexible solutions where needed, or to involve both public and private actors that otherwise do not have access to formal decision-making bodies. This SAFE working paper conceptualises formal and informal modes of cooperation and varying actor constellations. It discusses their relevance for the case of bilateral relations between the European Union (EU) andSwitzerland in sectoral governance. More specifically, it draws lessons from EU-Swiss sectoral governance of financial and electricity markets for the future relations of the EU with the United Kingdom (UK). The findings suggest that there are distinct governance arrangements across sectors, while the patterns of sectoral governance are expected to look very much alike in the United Kingdom and Switzerland in the years to come. The general takeaway is that Brexit will have repercussions for the EU's external relations with other third countries, putting ever more emphasis on formal and rule-based approaches, while leaving a need for sector-specific cross border co-operation. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:341&r= |
| By: | Delgado-Prieto, Lukas |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor market impacts of a massive inflow of Venezuelans in Colombia. By comparing areas that received different shares of migrants, I find a negative effect on wages and on local employment for natives. The negative wage effect is driven by a large drop of wages in the informal sector, where migrants are mostly employed, while the negative employment effect is driven by a reduction of employment in the formal sector, where the minimum wage is binding. To explain these results, I develop a model in which firms hire formal and informal workers with different costs. If these workers have a high degree of substitutability, and wages for formal workers are rigid, firms reallocate formal to informal employment as a response to lower informal wages. In settings with informal labor markets migration can therefore lead to asymmetric employment and wage effects across the informal and formal sectors. |
| Date: | 2021–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:acr4v&r= |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella; Dimico, Arcangelo; Tedeschi, Gian Luca |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between natives' attitudes towards citizenship acquisition for foreigners and trust. Our hypothesis is that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the slave trade represents the deep factor behind contemporary attitudes toward citizenship, with more intense exposure to historical slave exports for an individual's ethnic group being associated with contemporary distrust for strangers, and in turn opposition to citizenship laws that favor the inclusion of foreigners. We find that individuals who are more trusting do show more positive attitudes towards the acquisition of citizenship at birth for children of foreigners, that these attitudes are also negatively related to the intensity of the slave trade, and that the underlying link between trust and the slave trade is confirmed. Alternative factors-conflict, kinship, and witchcraft beliefs-that, through trust, may affect attitudes toward citizenship, are not generating the same distinctive pattern of linkages emerging from the slave trade. |
| Keywords: | Citizenship,Trust,Slave Trade,Migration,Ethnicity,Conflict,Kinship,Witchcraft |
| JEL: | J15 K37 N57 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202202&r= |
| By: | Foks, Freddy |
| Abstract: | What role did migration play in the making of modern Britain? We now have a good sense of the way ethnicity, class, religion and gender structured immigrants’ experience and what impact they had on Britain’s culture, society and economy. But as Nancy Green pointed out almost two decades ago, scholars of migration must focus on exit as well as entry. Such a call to study ‘the politics of exit’ is especially apposite in the case of the UK. For in every decade between 1850 and 1980 (with the exception of the 1930s), the UK experienced net emigration year on year. This article analyses this outflow of migrants to give a new account of the UK as an 'emigration state'. With this concept in mind, this paper offers a new account of the formation of migration policy in the UK and seeks to transform our sense of the chronological and geographical boundaries of modern Britain. |
| Date: | 2021–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s8jz4&r= |
| By: | Lucas Guichard (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | European countries experienced a short-lived surge in the arrival of asylum seekers from 2014 to 2016. The size, diversity, and potential consequences of the large number of asylum seekers makes it important to identify the characteristics of the newcomers, which are likely to affect the socioeconomic outcomes of the stayers in the origin country and of the natives at destination. |
| Abstract: | Entre 2014 et 2016, les pays européens ont connu une brève et spectaculaire arrivée de demandeurs d'asile. La taille, la diversité et les conséquences potentielles de l'arrivée des demandeurs d'asile impliquent qu'il est important d'identifier les caractéristiques des nouveaux arrivants, susceptibles d'affecter les conditions socio-économiques des personnes qui restent dans le pays d'origine et des natifs habitant le pays de destination. |
| Keywords: | Individual-level data,Education,Selection,Refugee |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03513869&r= |
| By: | Simone Bertoli (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Elsa Gautrain (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Elie Murard |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that the occurrence of an international migration episode is associated with a variation in the living arrangements of the household members left behind. The migration of a married Mexican man typically induces his spouse and children to join the household of the wife's parents, a pattern that is at odds with the prevailing patrilocal norm. This change in living arrangements, which involves the extended family of the migrant, has two relevant implications for the analysis of the effects of paternal migration and remittances on the children left behind. First, it can give rise to an important heterogeneity in the effects of interest, which has not been explored in the migration literature. Second, it leads to attrition in longitudinal household surveys that is non-random with respect to potential outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Migration,Remittances,Household Structure,Living arrangements,Extended family,Schooling |
| Date: | 2021–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-03117677&r= |
| By: | Muysken, Joan (UNU-MERIT, SBE Maastricht University, and CofFEE-Europe); Meijers, Huub (UNU-MERIT, SBE Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | The Dutch economy is a small open economy. Due to its persistent large current account surplus, the Dutch net foreign assets have been increasing over time. The financial sector is dominated by special purpose vehicles created for tax reasons. The financial assets and liabilities of these vehicles are issued or held abroad, amounting to around 500 per cent of GDP. The remaining part of the financial sector has almost doubled in size relative to GDP over the past 25 years. While the growth of the banking sector stagnated since the financial crisis, the financial sector continued to grow because of the presence of a funded pension system. We analyse these developments using insights from stock flow consistent models for the Dutch economy that we have developed earlier. This analysis also enables us to highlight the role monetary policy played in facilitating and stimulating the growth of financialisation. |
| Keywords: | globalisation, financialisation, quantitative easing, stock-flow consistent modelling |
| JEL: | E44 B5 E6 F45 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2022–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2022006&r= |