nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒02‒28
forty-six papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Trade Under Lockdown By Antoine Berthou; Sebastian Stumpner
  2. China’s accession to the WTO and its impact on global agricultural trade By Glauber, Joseph W.
  3. Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty By Casadei, Patrizia; Iammarino, Simona
  4. Firm-to-Firm Trade: Imports, Exports, and the Labor Market By Jonathan Eaton; Samuel S. Kortum; Francis Kramarz
  5. Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide By Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Guriev, Sergei; Treisman, Daniel
  6. The Economic Impact of Deepening Trade Agreements By Lionel Fontagné; Nadia Rocha; Michele Ruta; Gianluca Santoni
  7. Trade Policy Uncertainty By Kyle Handley; Nuno Limão
  8. Why Do People Oppose Foreign Acquisitions? Evidence from Japanese Individual-Level Data By ITO Banri; TANAKA Ayumu; JINJI Naoto
  9. Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility By Clemens, Michael A.
  10. Effects of Globalization on Educational Choice and Unemployment under Search Friction By Chihiro INABA; Noritsugu NAKANISHI
  11. The role of value added across economic sectors in modulating the effects of FDI on TFP and economic growth dynamics By Asongu, Simplice; Meniago, Christelle; Salahodjaev, Raufhon
  12. The Challenges of Adapting Trade Policies to the Digital Era By Lee, Kyu Yub; Choi, Won Seok; Park, Ji Hyun; Eom, Jun-Hyun; Kang, Min Ji; Whang, Unjung
  13. The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters through Industrial Linkages By Hayato Kato; Toshihiro Okubo
  14. Agricultural Export, Growth and the Poor in Africa: A Meta Analysis By Adeabah, David; Asongu, Simplice
  15. Currency Undervaluation and Comparative Advantage By Paul Bergin
  16. Efficacy of US Immigration Policies: What Do Available Evidence Suggest? By John, Raju
  17. Multinationals and Structural Transformation By Vanessa ALVIAREZ; CHEN Cheng; Nitya PANDALAI-NAYAR; Liliana VARELA; YI Kei-Mu; ZHANG Hongyong
  18. Two-Sided Search in International Markets By Jonathan Eaton; David Jinkins; James R. Tybout; Daniel Xu
  19. Foreign Direct Investment under Uncertainty: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries By Caroline Jardet; Cristina Jude; Menzie D. Chinn
  20. The Common Currency Effect on International Trade: Evidence from an Accidental Monetary Union By Roger Vicquéry
  21. THE AFRICAN GREAT LAKES REGION: Obstacle and asset to the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) By Joseph Mimbale; Blondel Katongola
  22. ASEAN and African relations: towards a renewed partnership? By Kohnert, Dirk
  23. Foreign direct investments, international outsourcing and subcontracting: The underlying logics By Riad Haddadi; Slimane Merzoug
  24. International Transport costs: New Findings from modeling additive cost By Guillaume Daudin; Jérôme Héricourt; Lise Patureau
  25. Adaptation to transboundary climate risks in trade: investigating actors and strategies for an emerging challenge By Bednar-Friedl, Birgit; Knittel, Nina; Raich, Joachim; Adams, Kevin M.
  26. Carrying Carbon? Negative and Positive Carbon Leakage with International Transport By HIGASHIDA Keisaku; ISHIKAWA Jota; TARUI Nori
  27. Assessment of the impact of trade openness on economic growth: Case of Sub-Saharan Africa By Ali Sekkach
  28. Towards a multi-stakeholder Intermodal Trade-Transportation Data-Sharing and Knowledge Exchange Network By Alain Dudoit; Molivann Panot; Thierry Warin
  29. International trade and economic growth in Croatia By Leonarda Srdelić; Marwil Jhonatan Dávila-Fernández
  30. Institutions, trade openness and economic growth in transition economies By Hamimed Soumia; Mokhtari Fayçal
  31. Assessing Carbon Emissions Embodied in International Trade Based on Shared Responsibility By Palizha AIREBULE; Haitao CHENG; ISHIKAWA Jota
  32. Harmonization, Mutual Recognition or National Treatment: a Melitz approach By Beguin, Malo
  33. Heterogeneous Analysis of Pollution Abatement via Renewable and Non-renewable Energy: Lessons from Investment in G20 Nations By Kazeem Bello Ajide; Ekundayo Peter Mesagan
  34. International model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade-standard IFPRI multimarket model (IMPACT-SIMM): Technical description for version 1 By Robinson, Sherman; Anderson, Lillian; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Komarek, Adam M.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Sulser, Timothy B.
  35. The devil is in the detail: measuring intra-EU labour migration By Fenwick, Clare
  36. Remittances and firm performance in sub-Saharan Africa : evidence from firm-level data By Kabinet Kaba; Mahamat Moustapha
  37. Between a rock and a hard place: internal- and external institutional fit of MNE subsidiary political strategy in contexts of institutional upheaval By Schnyder, Gerhard; Sallai, Dorottya
  38. The case for a Carbon Border Adjustment: Where do economists stand? By Aliénor Cameron; Marc Baudry
  39. Are growth effects of foreign capital significant for increasing access to electricity in Africa? By Mbiankeu Nguea, Stéphane; KAGUENDO, Ulrich Vianney Elisée
  40. Exporting inequality: US investors and the Americanization of executive pay in the United Kingdom By Linsi, Lukas; Hopkin, Jonathan; Jaupart, Pascal
  41. Democracy, Institutions, and International Profit-Shifting By Delis, Fotios; Economidou, Claire; Hasan, Iftekhar
  42. Exchange Rate Elasticities of International Tourism and the Role of Dominant Currency Pricing By Ding Ding; Mr. Yannick Timmer
  43. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on the coffee value chain in Guatemala: Evidence from coffee growers in the Midwest and East By Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Paz, Cynthia; Berrospi, Maria Lucia
  44. Indicators of Complexity and Over-complexification in Global Food Systems By Loring, Philip A.; Sanyal, Palash
  45. Impact of official development assistance and migrant remittances on economic growth and income inequality in Senegal By Lassana Toure; M Diagne; M Sagbo
  46. The Dark Side of Samsung’s Value Chain: The Human Costs of Cobalt Mining “BLOOD, SWEAT AND COBALT” By Krummel, Daniel; Siegfried, Patrick

  1. By: Antoine Berthou; Sebastian Stumpner
    Abstract: To curb the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on public health, many countries around the world introduced lockdown policies in 2020. We estimate the effect of these lockdowns on international trade flows, using a rich dataset of monthly bilateral product-level trade flows that covers roughly three quarters of world trade. Our main findings are: (i) Both exporter and importer lockdowns substantially reduced international trade, with importer lockdowns having a stronger impact; (ii) The effect of lockdowns on trade was strongest during the first wave, and has since been declining; (iii) Beyond the direct effect of lockdowns, we find evidence for indirect effects (i.e. lockdowns by third countries) through global value chains.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Impact of Lockdowns, Global Value Chains
    JEL: F10 F14 F44
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Glauber, Joseph W.
    Abstract: China’s rapid rise as a leading global exporter of manufacturing goods since its accession to the WTO in 2001 has been the focus of both admiration and, increasingly, concern, but China is also a large importer of goods, particularly agricultural products. Since China's accession to the WTO, China agricultural exports have increased by 8 percent annually while imports have risen by almost twice that rate. China has become the world's largest importer of agricultural products and the first or second largest destination for many of the world's top agricultural exporters such as the US, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Argentina. This paper examines the evolution of China's agricultural trade since accession and discusses how agricultural trade policy and domestic support policies have evolved, with particularly emphasis on China's experience as complainant and respondent in WTO trade disputes.
    Keywords: CHINA; EAST ASIA; ASIA; WORLD; WTO; agricultural trade; dispute settlement; trade disputes; international trade; trade; tariffs; imports; exports
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Casadei, Patrizia; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: Since the 2008 economic and financial crisis, the rise of populism and nationalism has been associated with increased protectionism and policy uncertainty in the world trade system, with profound side effects for international business (IB) activities and global value chains (GVCs). The aim of this paper is to investigate the way trade policy uncertainty linked to Brexit has affected firms’ behaviors along the GVC of the UK textile and apparel (T&A) industry. We draw upon data from an original survey carried out between June 2019 and January 2020 with 688 firms amongst UK T&A manufacturers, designers, and retailers to grasp their perception of Brexit uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty over trade policy between the UK and the EU – started in the wake of the 2016 referendum – has affected a significant number of firms operating upstream and downstream of the UK T&A value chain, which shows clear signs of ongoing restructuring. Our findings also provide some preliminary evidence of the way the (perceived) effects of trade policy uncertainty may vary depending on firms’ position, production phase, and degree of integration in the GVC. Policy directions for supporting the UK T&A value chain post-Brexit and implications for future IB research are discussed.
    Keywords: trade policy; global value chains; survey method; Brexit; uncertainty; textile and apparel industry
    JEL: R14 J01 L81
    Date: 2021–06–01
  4. By: Jonathan Eaton; Samuel S. Kortum; Francis Kramarz
    Abstract: Customs data reveal heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers. A key insight is how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm-to-firm matching that builds on this insight to separate the roles of iceberg costs and matching frictions in gravity. In the cross section, we find matching frictions as important as iceberg costs in impeding trade, and more sensitive to distance. Because domestic and imported intermediates compete directly with labor in performing production tasks, our model also fits the heterogeneity of labor shares across French producers. Applying the framework to the 2004 expansion of the European Union, reduced iceberg costs and reduced matching frictions contributed equally to the increase in French exports to the new members. While workers benefitted overall, those competing most directly with imports gained less, even losing in some countries entering the EU.
    JEL: F12 F14 F16
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Guriev, Sergei; Treisman, Daniel
    Abstract: We provide the first large-scale, global evidence on the impact of the skill composition of trade on political approval. We show that political implications of trade shocks depend on the relationship between workers’ skills and the characteristics of goods traded. Using Gallup World Poll surveys of a million respondents from 120 countries over 2005-2018, we show that growth in high skill intensive exports increases confidence in government among skilled individuals relative to unskilled ones. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. Growth in low skill intensive exports (imports) increases (decreases) confidence in government among unskilled individuals relative to skilled ones. To identify causal relationships, we construct instruments based on time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade in goods of different skill intensity.
    Date: 2022–01–29
  6. By: Lionel Fontagné; Nadia Rocha; Michele Ruta; Gianluca Santoni
    Abstract: This paper explores the economic impacts of preferential trade agreements, conditional on their level of ambition. We cluster 278 agreements, encompassing 910 provisions over 18 policy areas and estimate the trade elasticity for the different clusters. We then use these elasticities in a series of general equilibrium counterfactual situations for endowment economies, revealing that deepening existing agreements (the intensive margin of regional integration) could boost world trade by 5 percent and world GDP by 1 percent. The expected gains from deepening agreements within or across regions vary depending on the initial depth of agreements and the size of regional markets.
    Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreements, Deep Integration, Structural Gravity
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Kyle Handley; Nuno Limão
    Abstract: Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has become an important source of economic uncertainty and research. We review the main sources and measures of TPU. We then provide a conceptual framework for modeling TPU and methods of estimating and quantifying its effects. We analyze its role in trade agreements and discuss open questions for future research.
    JEL: D81 F1 F13 F21 F4
    Date: 2022–01
  8. By: ITO Banri; TANAKA Ayumu; JINJI Naoto
    Abstract: This study empirically examines the determinants of individuals' attitudes about inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using responses from questionnaire surveys that were originally designed. Individuals' preferences for inward FDI tend to differ between greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and people are more likely to have a negative attitude toward M&A than greenfield investments. Our results show that people with a negative image of the so-called "vulture fund" for foreign capital tend to oppose inward FDI, and this is more pronounced for M&A than greenfield investments. Moreover, loss aversion and high time preference rates are strongly related to opposition to inward FDI, and people with such behavioral biases tend to refuse indigenous firms to be acquired by foreign capital, even if they agree to accept greenfield investment. These results indicate that people's preferences for inward FDI depend more on non-economic attributes than economic attributes, which is consistent with recent empirical studies on trade policy preferences.
    Date: 2022–01
  9. By: Clemens, Michael A. (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists' study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.
    Keywords: labor, immigration, emigration, selection, impact, wages, employment, roy model, production, globalization, history
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2022–01
  10. By: Chihiro INABA (Corresponding author. Kansaigaidai University / Research Fellow, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Noritsugu NAKANISHI (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: Trade liberalization increases the import of foreign goods fosters the penetration of foreign firms into the local markets and makes local markets more competitive. To survive the severer competition, local firms must improve the qualities of production factor,goods and employ more highly skilled workers more. An increase in the demand for skilled workers encourages workers to pursue higher education. Despite that the world economy has witnessed the trend of freer international transactions in decades, However, the recent trend of the employment of highly educated workers is seems stagnant in many countries, in particular, in developed countries globally. Although trade liberalization enhances the demand for skilled workers, it may does not necessarily contribute to increasing an improvement of their employment. I analyze how trade liberalization affects the local employment of both skilled workers, and unskilled workers, occupational choices by workers, and the wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. If When firms a firm start to production enters the market, they it must has to employ one unit of skilled worker labor to develop its own variety of the differentiated good in advance of actual production and some unskilled workers. The abilities of Each skilled workers has are heterogeneous ability, so that the ex post productivities of firms are become different heterogeneous ex post. The unskilled workers, whose abilities are homogeneous, are used for the production of the good. However, due to search friction, matches between firms and to unskilled and skilled workers (either skilled or unskilled) are not always successful. With this knowledge, knowing all this, workers choose make their educational choices: and either to remain to be unskilled workers or to get educated to be skilled workers learn skills. Trade liberalization changes affects the wage rates of unskilled and skilled workers and the successful probability of successful matching, which may encourage unskilled workers to learn skill but increase the number of the skilled workers after trade liberalization. Therefore, the unemployment rate of the skilled workers may increase after globalization.
    Date: 2022–02
  11. By: Asongu, Simplice; Meniago, Christelle; Salahodjaev, Raufhon
    Abstract: This study investigates: (i) the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth dynamics, and (ii) the relevance of value added from three economic sectors in modulating the established effect of FDI on TFP and economic growth dynamics. The geographical and temporal scopes are respectively 25 Sub-Saharan African countries and the period 1980–2014. The empirical evidence is based on non-interactive and interactive Generalised Method of Moments. The following main findings are established. First, FDI has a positive effect on GDP growth, GDP per capita and welfare real TFP. Second, the effect of FDI is negative on real GDP and TFP, while the impact is insignificant on real TFP growth and welfare TFP. Third, values added to the three economic sectors largely modulate FDI to produce negative net effects on TFP and growth dynamics. Policy implications are discussed with particular emphasis on the need to complement added value across various economic sectors in order to leverage on the benefits of FDI in TFP and economic growth. To the best of knowledge, this is the first study to assess how value added from various economic sectors affect the relevance of FDI on macroeconomic outcomes.
    Keywords: Economic output, total factor productivity, foreign investment, agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, service sector, sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: E23 F21 F30 F43 O55
    Date: 2021–01
    Abstract: This study provides evidence on barriers to digital trade and the economic effect of digital trade, based on surveys of domestic firms in Korea and data collected from random sampling. After briefly examining the prospects of e-commerce talks at the WTO and characterizing digital trade rules at the FTA level, the study concludes by providing suggestions for major policy tasks and mid- to long-term directions of Korea’s digital trade policy.
    Keywords: digital trade; trade policy; Korea; e-commerce; WTO; FTA
    Date: 2022–01–04
  13. By: Hayato Kato; Toshihiro Okubo
    Abstract: When do multinationals show resilience during natural disasters? To answer this, we develop a simple model in which foreign multinationals and local firms in the host country are interacted through input-output linkages. When natural disasters seriously hit local firms and thus increase the cost of sourcing local intermediate inputs, most multinationals may leave the host country. However, they are likely to stay if they are tightly linked with local suppliers and face low trade costs of importing foreign intermediates. We further provide a number of extensions of the basic model to incorporate, for example, multinationals with heterogeneous productivity and disaster reconstruction.
    Date: 2022–01
  14. By: Adeabah, David; Asongu, Simplice
    Abstract: Over the past decade, a growing number of studies have examined the role of agricultural export in economic growth in Africa. The literature, however, provides conflicting results about the agricultural export-led growth hypothesis. In this study, we aim to examine the impact of agricultural export on economic growth by performing a meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis finds significant presence of negative publication bias in the literature. Using mixed-effect multilevel meta-regression, we find that after correction for publication bias, the average agricultural export elasticity to economic growth is 0.763 for the poor in Africa. Interestingly, agricultural export is growth for the rich in Africa, although the elasticity of GDP is 0.043. These results are consistent with the agricultural export-led growth hypothesis. The implication is that export promotion should be targeted at agricultural output in low-income and lower middle-income countries whereas upper middle-income countries in Africa may focus on non-agricultural export.
    Keywords: Africa; export-led growth; agricultural export; meta-analysis
    JEL: C10 C40 I30 N50 O55
    Date: 2021–11
  15. By: Paul Bergin
    Abstract: This paper highlights a tradeoff implied by a policy of export-led growth through currency undervaluation. While undervaluation can foster domestic manufacturing in countries like China by sustaining trade surplus, it also can harm a country’s comparative advantage by altering the composition of exports. Undervaluation may discourage specializing in high-value added manufacturing and instead favor specialization in non-differentiated goods with higher price elasticity. A dynamic general equilibrium model of two traded good sectors and capital account restrictions shows that undervaluation can either raise or lower welfare depending on two competing effects on comparative advantage: agglomeration versus an elasticity effect.
    JEL: F41
    Date: 2022–01
  16. By: John, Raju
    Abstract: This paper tries to gather available evidences pertaining to the potential effects of changes in immigration policies of United States of America (USA), the top global emigrant destination. USA government seems to go ahead with restrictions on emigration to USA. In this context, this paper attempts to examine the efficacy of such curbs using available historical and empirical evidence. It is important to gather evidence pertaining to potential impact of such curbs as they are likely to depress global emigrant flows considerably. This is likely to induce negative shocks on nations who send large number of emigrants (for ex: India). The paper is expected to provide some information regarding the historical/empirical evidence pertinent to actual association between immigration policies and immigration so that stakeholder community of emigration systems of these nations can be more realistic in their approach towards immigration curbs in USA and other major destinations.
    Keywords: Migration, Emigration, Immigration, Policies, USA, DEMIG data.
    JEL: F22
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Vanessa ALVIAREZ; CHEN Cheng; Nitya PANDALAI-NAYAR; Liliana VARELA; YI Kei-Mu; ZHANG Hongyong
    Abstract: We study the role of multinationals (MNCs) in driving structural transformation. We begin by developing a stylized two-country, three-sector general equilibrium model with multinational production and trade. We show analytically that a decrease in FDI costs leads to an increase in the manufacturing employment share of the host country and a decrease in the source country, consistent with structural transformation. We test the model's firm-level predictions by using confidential microdata to study the response of Japanese MNC parents and affiliates to an exogenous change in China's openness to FDI. We find that the China affiliates of Japanese MNCs in industries where inward FDI was exogenously encouraged experienced increases in manufacturing employment. We also find that MNC parents in industries where inward FDI was exogenously encouraged experienced larger losses in home country manufacturing employment and increases in home country services and R&D employment. Finally, we expand our confidential microdata to cover several high and middle-income countries and implement an accounting decomposition separating the change in overall manufacturing employment shares into MNC and non-MNC components. We find a significant role for MNCs across all countries, suggesting the mechanism we highlight is an important driver of structural transformation.
    Date: 2021–12
  18. By: Jonathan Eaton; David Jinkins; James R. Tybout; Daniel Xu
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic model of international business-to-business transactions in which sellers and buyers search for each other, with the probability of a match depending on both individual and aggregate search effort. Fit to customs records on U.S. apparel imports, the model captures key cross-sectional and dynamic features of international buyer-seller relationships. We use the model to make several quantitative inferences. First, we calculate the search costs borne by heterogeneous importers and exporters. Second, we provide a structural interpretation for the life cycles of importers and exporters as they endogenously acquire and lose foreign business partners. Third, we pursue counterfactuals that approximate the phaseout of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (the “China shock”) and the IT revolution. Lower search costs can significantly improve consumer welfare, but at the expense of importer profits. On the other hand, an increase in the population of foreign exporters can congest matching to the extent of dampening or even reversing the gains consumers enjoy from access to extra varieties and more retailers.
    JEL: F12 F14
    Date: 2022–01
  19. By: Caroline Jardet; Cristina Jude; Menzie D. Chinn
    Abstract: We examine the effect of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows for a heterogeneous sample of advanced, emerging market and developing countries over a 25 year long (pre-Covid) sample. Using a push-pull framework, and controlling for both global and local factors, we find policy uncertainty has discernable and significant effects on inflows, but those effects vary in strength and direction between different groups of countries. Moreover, it is not host country uncertainty that seems to matter the most, but rather global uncertainty. Additionally, we find that high levels of uncertainty matter disproportionately. Finally, financial openness accentuates the impact of uncertainty for emerging market and developing countries.
    JEL: F21 F4
    Date: 2022–01
  20. By: Roger Vicquéry
    Abstract: I rely on a historical natural experiment to provide, for the first time, a causal estimate of the effect of currency unions on international trade. Since the seminal paper by Rose (2000), a large literature has developed around currencies as a trade cost. However, self-selection and endogeneity bias implied by membership of a currency union are likely to be pervasive and might explain the large pro-trade effect of currency union found in the literature. I offer a quasi-experimental contribution by exploiting an exogenous variation in currency union membership, driven by an unexpected geopolitical shock – the 1861 Italian unification - and involving a French franc pan-European zone that existed throughout the 19th century. I employ original data and structural gravity equations to estimate an effect in the order of 35%, consistent with a large - if heterogenous - effect of common currencies on trade.
    Keywords: Currency Unions, Common Currency, Trade, Natural Experiment, Gravity Regressions.
    JEL: F15 F33 F54 N73
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Joseph Mimbale (UNIKIN - University of Kinshasa); Blondel Katongola
    Abstract: This paper aims to demonstrate why the geopolitics of the African Great Lakes region can be both an obstacle and an asset to the effective implementation of the AfCFTA in the DRC. It begins by noting the negative factors unfavourable to the successful implementation of the AfCFTA in the DRC before presenting the positive factors favourable to the operationalisation of the AfCFTA in this country. But also this paper considers that the negative factors of the African Great Lakes region are not inevitable-and that the positive factors, when properly operationalised, can override any obstacles to the implementation of the AfCFTA.
    Date: 2022–01–06
  22. By: Kohnert, Dirk (GIGA - German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg)
    Abstract: ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ & ZUSAMMENFASSUNG : The ASEAN summit of October 2021 showed the increased geopolitical importance of the Indo-Pacific realm. Today ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in Asia and the second largest worldwide behind the EU. The establishment of the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership (NAASP) more than 15 years before (2005) aimed to revive the Bandung spirit of the non-aligned movement of 1955. This time with a stronger focus on economic ties. In 2013 these countries counted around 620 million inhabitants or 8.8% of the world population. They wanted to fight colonialism and neocolonialism by promoting Afro-Asiatic economic and cultural cooperation. Almost all member countries gained sovereignty and political independence by the 1960s and 1970s, with the exception of Palestine. However, the aftermath of the Bandung conference also promoted negative developments, including the polarization of Asian countries, the strengthening of political authoritarianism and regional interventions. In addition, most countries continued to grapple with economic and political challenges, including poverty, debt burdens, backwardness, ignorance, disease and environmental degradation. Their access to the markets of the industrialized countries also remained limited. At the global level, the NAASP received little attention so far. Despite the longstanding rhetoric of Asia-Africa solidarity, Asia and Africa still lack formal institutional and trade links. Although interregional trade increased, Africa remained a small part of ASEAN with only around 2% of its total market. The most important trading countries of ASEAN with Africa were Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore, while South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were the largest African import markets. RÉSUMÉ : 'Les relations commerciales entre l'ASEAN [ANASE] et l'Afrique: vers un partenariat renouvelé ?' --- Le sommet de l'ASEAN d'octobre 2021 a montré l'importance géopolitique accrue de la region indo-pacifique. Aujourd'hui, l'ANASE est l'organisation régionale la plus performante d'Asie et la deuxième au monde derrière l'UE. La création du Nouveau partenariat stratégique Asie-Afrique (NAASP) plus de 15 ans auparavant (2005) visait à raviver l'esprit de Bandung du mouvement des non-alignés de 1955. Cette fois en mettant davantage l'accent sur les liens économiques. En 2013, ces pays comptaient environ 620 millions d'habitants soit 8,8% de la population mondiale. Ils voulaient combattre le colonialisme et le néocolonialisme en promouvant la coopération économique et culturelle afro-asiatique. Presque tous les pays membres ont acquis leur souveraineté et leur indépendance politique dans les années 1960 et 1970, à l'exception de la Palestine. Cependant, les conséquences de la conférence de Bandung ont également favorisé des développements négatifs, notamment la polarisation des pays asiatiques, le renforcement de l'autoritarisme politique et les interventions régionales. En outre, la plupart des pays ont continué à faire face à des défis économiques et politiques, notamment la pauvreté, le fardeau de la dette, le retard, l'ignorance, la maladie et la dégradation de l'environnement. Leur accès aux marchés des pays industrialisés restait également limité. Au niveau mondial, le NAASP a reçu peu d'attention jusqu'à présent. Malgré la rhétorique de longue date de la solidarité Asie-Afrique, l'Asie et l'Afrique manquent encore de liens institutionnels et commerciaux formels. Bien que le commerce interrégional ait augmenté, l'Afrique est restée une petite partie de l'ASEAN avec seulement environ 2% de son marché total. Les principaux pays commerçants de l'ASEAN avec l'Afrique étaient la Thaïlande, l'Indonésie et Singapour, tandis que l'Afrique du Sud, le Nigéria et l'Égypte étaient les plus grands marchés d'importation africains.
    Date: 2021–11–15
  23. By: Riad Haddadi (Université Abderrahmane Mira, Algeria); Slimane Merzoug (Université Abderrahmane Mira [Béjaïa])
    Abstract: In this paper, we put into perspective international outsourcing and subcontracting, as alternative strategies of firm internationalization. We also identify the trade-offs that allow the firm to choose between integration or outsourcing. Our main results show that if asset ownership is separable without the risk of losing its competitive advantage, the firm should opt for outsourcing through international subcontracting, provided that the transaction costs are lower than the control costs of a foreign subsidiary.
    Abstract: Dans cet article, nous mettons en perspective l'externalisation et la sous-traitance internationales, en tant que stratégies alternatives d'internationalisation de la firme. Nous identifions également les arbitrages qui permettent à la firme de choisir entre l'intégration ou l'externalisation. Nos principaux résultats montrent que si la propriété des actifs est séparable sans risque de perdre son avantage concurrentiel, la firme doit opter pour l'externalisation via la sous-traitance internationale, à condition que les coûts de transaction soient inférieurs aux coûts de contrôle d'une filiale à l'étranger.
    Keywords: Investissement direct étranger,Externalisation,Sous-traitance,Fragmentation de la production L23,F23 Foreign direct investment,Outsourcing,Subcontracting,Production fragmentation. JEL Classification Codes: L23,F23 Investissements directs étrangers,externalisation et sous-traitance internationales: Les logiques sous-jacentes
    Date: 2021–12–30
  24. By: Guillaume Daudin (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jérôme Héricourt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lise Patureau (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: International transport costs do have an additive part. How large is it? Does it matter?This paper provides new answers to these questions. Using information contained in the US imports flows from 1974 to 2019, we develop an empirical model that disentangles the ad-valorem and the additive components of international transport costs. The per-unit component of transport costs rep-resents a sizeable share of total transport costs, between 30% and 45% depending on the year and the transport mode considered. We then investigate the important consequences of additive costs, under two different perspectives. First, modelling varying additive costs modifies the decomposition of transport costs time trend between the reduction in "pure" transport costs and trade composition effects, the latter playing a minor role. Second, we revisit the welfare gains of the transport costreduction in presence of additive costs. In this regard, we shed light on the welfare variations in-duced by the international trade acceleration and the "hyper-globalization", as well as the key role of additive transport costs in determining those welfare variations. Neglecting the additive component substantially underestimates the welfare gains of the transport cost decrease.
    Abstract: Les coûts du transport international ont une part additive. Quelle est l'ampleur de cette dernière ? Est-ce important pour l'analyse économique ? Cet article apporte de nouvelles réponses à ces questions. A cet effet, nous développons une méthodologie empirique permettant de distinguer précisément les composantes multiplicative et additive des coûts de transport internationaux, que nous appliquons sur des données exhaustives d'importations pour les États-Unis sur la période 1974-2019. L'analyse révèle que la composante additive représente une partie significative des coûts de transport totaux, comprise entre 30 et 45% selon l'année et le mode de transport considéré. Dans un second temps, nous évaluons les conséquences pour l'analyse économique de cette importance des coûts additifs, sous deux angles différents. Tout d'abord, la modélisation de coûts additifs variables modifie la décomposition de la tendance temporelle des coûts de transport, entre d'une part la réduction des coûts de transport "purs" et d'autre part les effets de composition du commerce, ces derniers jouant un rôle mineur. Par la suite, nous réévaluons les gains de bien-être produits par la réduction des coûts de transport en présence de coûts additifs. A cet égard, nous mesurons les variations de bien-être induites par l'accélération du commerce international observée à partir des années 1980 et le phénomène d'hyper-mondialisation, ainsi que le rôle-clé des coûts de transport additifs dans la détermination de ces variations de bien-être. Nous montrons ainsi que négliger la composante additive des coûts de transport conduit à sous-estimer considérablement les gains de bien-être produits par la décrue de ces coûts.
    Keywords: Transport costs estimates,non-linear econometrics,period 1974-2019,additive costs,trade composition effects,gains from trade,coûts de transport,économétrie non linéaire,période 1974-2019,coûts additifs,effets decomposition du commerce,gains au commerce
    Date: 2022–01–21
  25. By: Bednar-Friedl, Birgit; Knittel, Nina; Raich, Joachim; Adams, Kevin M.
    Abstract: There is growing recognition that international trade can transmit climate risks across borders, requiring new forms of and approaches to adaptation. This advanced review synthesizes knowledge on how, by whom and where adaptation actions can be taken in the agriculture and industrial sectors to reduce these transboundary climate risks (TCRs). We find a material difference in the literature on TCRs in agriculture as compared with industrial sectors. Operational and market risks, in particular reductions in food availability, dominate in agriculture, while supply chain and trade-related risks are highlighted for industry. While the origin of the risk (source) is the primary target of adaptation to agricultural TCRs, the general governance structure, such as UNFCCC and WTO deliberations, are important targets in both sectors. Adaptation at the country of destination and along the trade network is of minor importance in both sectors. Regarding the type of adaptation option, agriculture heavily relies on trade policy, agricultural adaptation, and adaptation planning and coordination, while in industry knowledge creation, research and development, and risk management are seen as essential. Governments and the international community are identified as key actors, complemented by businesses and research as critical players in industry. Some measures, such as protectionist trade policies and irrigation, are controversial as they shift risks across countries and sectors, rather than reduce them. While more research is needed, this review shows that a critical mass of evidence on adaptation to TCRs is beginning to emerge, particularly underscoring the importance of international coordination mechanisms. This article is categorized under:. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance.
    Keywords: adaption; agriculture; industry; trade; transboundary climate risk; European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program; Grant number: 776479 (project COACCH). Funding information
    JEL: L81
    Date: 2022–01–31
  26. By: HIGASHIDA Keisaku; ISHIKAWA Jota; TARUI Nori
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of carbon pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international transport, production, and consumption of traded goods by modeling the international transport sector explicitly. Endogenous international transport explains the novel mechanism of carbon leakage across borders and sectors. The effectiveness of carbon pricing depends on whether the backhaul problem (i.e., the imbalance of shipping volume in outgoing and incoming routes) is present. If the backhaul problem is absent, any carbon pricing is effective because the global GHG emissions are necessarily reduced. With the backhaul problem, carbon pricing in goods consumption remains effective, whereas carbon pricing in goods production results in cross-border carbon leakage. However, endogenous transport costs mitigate this leakage. The opportunity of foreign direct investment also affects carbon pricing effectiveness. In particular, carbon pricing in the transport sector may not affect GHG emissions at all.
    Date: 2021–12
  27. By: Ali Sekkach (Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir])
    Abstract: This paper examines the growth effects of trade openessin sub-Saharan countries. We used Generalized method of moments GMM to analyze the data of 38 years (1981-2019). Our results show that trade openness has a significant impact on economic growth. During the reporting period, population growth and physical capital were among the main determinants of economic growth.
    Abstract: Le présent travail examine l'impact de l'ouverture commerciale de l'Afrique subsaharienne au commerce international sur sa croissance économique. Nous avons adopté une analyse à l'aide de la méthode des moments généralisée avec des données de 38 années (entre 1981 et 2019). Nos résultats montrent que l'ouverture commerciale a un impact significatif sur la croissance économique. La croissance démographique et le capital physique ont été parmi les principaux déterminants de la croissance économique au cours de la période objet de notre étude.
    Keywords: trade openness,Sub-Saharan Africa,economic growth,International trade,croissance économique,Afrique subsaharienne,ouverture,Commerce international
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Alain Dudoit; Molivann Panot; Thierry Warin
    Abstract: The performance of supply chains used to be mainly the concern of academics and professionals who studied the potential efficiencies and risks associated with this aspect of globalisation. In 2021, major disruptions in this critical sector of our economies are making headlines and attracting the attention of policy makers around the world. Supply chain bottlenecks create shortages, fuel inflation, and undermine economic recovery. This report provides a transversal and multidisciplinary analysis of the challenges and opportunities regarding data interoperability and data sharing as they relate to the ‘Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway Trade Corridor’ (GLSLTC)’s intermodal transportation and trade data strategy. The size and scope of this trade corridor are only matched by the complexity of its multimodal freight transportation systems and growing urbanization on both sides of the Canada-US border. This complexity is exacerbated by the lack of data interoperability and effective collaborations between the different stakeholders within the various jurisdictions and amongst them. Our analytical work relies on : 1) A review of the relevant documentation on the latest challenges to supply chains (SC), intermodal freight transport and international trade, identifying any databases that are to be used.; 2) A comparative review of selected relevant initiatives to give insights into the best practices in digital supply chains implemented in Canada, the United States, and the European Union.; 3) Interviews and discussions with experts from Transport Canada, Statistics Canada, the Canadian Centre on Transportation Data (CCTD) and Global Affairs Canada, as well as with CIRANO’s research community and four partner institutions to identify databases and data that they use in their research related to transportation and trade relevant data availabilities and methodologies as well as joint research opportunities. Its main findings can be summarized as follow: GLSLTC is characterized by its critical scale, complexity, and strategic impact as North America’s most vital trade corridor in the foreseeable further intensification of continental trade. 4% of Canadian GDP is attributed to the Transportation and Logistics sector (2018): $1 trillion of goods moved every year: Goods and services imports are equivalent to 33% of Canada’s GDP and goods and services exports equivalent to 32%. The transportation sector is a key contributor to the achievement of net-zero emissions commitment by 2050. All sectors of the Canadian economy are affected by global supply chain disruptions. Uncertainty and threats extend well beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic. “De-globalization” and increasing supply chains regionalization pressures are mounting. Innovation and thus economic performance—increasingly hinges on the quantity and quality of data. Data is transforming Canada’s economy/society and is now at the center of global trade “Transport data is becoming less available: Canada needs to make data a priority for a national transportation strategy.” * “How the Government of Canada collects, manages, and governs data—and how it accesses and shares data with other governments, sectors, and Canadians—must change.” To cite this report: Alain Dudoit & Molivann Panot & Thierry Warin, 2021. "Towards a multi-stakeholder Intermodal Trade-Transportation Data-Sharing and Knowledge Exchange Network", CIRANO Project Report, 2021RP-28, CIRANO. For a more general literature review: Alain Dudoit & Molivann Panot & Thierry Warin, 2021. "Bibliography: Towards a multi-stakeholder Intermodal Trade-Transportation Data-Sharing and Knowledge Exchange Network", CIRANO Project Report, 2021RP-28, CIRANO La performance des chaînes d'approvisionnement était auparavant surtout l'affaire des universitaires et professionnels qui étudiaient les éventuels gains d'efficacité et les risques liés à cet aspect de la mondialisation. En 2021 les importantes perturbations dans ce secteur névralgique de nos économies, font les manchettes et retiennent de plus en plus l’attention des responsables politiques du monde entier. Les goulets d'étranglement de la chaîne d'approvisionnement créent des pénuries, attisent l'inflation et fragilisent la reprise économique. Le présent rapport fournit une analyse transversale et multidisciplinaire des défis et des possibilités concernant l'interopérabilité et le partage des données dans le cadre de la stratégie de données sur le transport intermodal et le commerce du « Corridor commercial des Grands Lacs et du Saint-Laurent » (CCGLSL). La taille et la portée de ce corridor commercial n’ont d'égal que la complexité de ses systèmes multimodaux de transport de marchandises et l'urbanisation croissante des deux côtés de la frontière canado-américaine. Cette complexité est exacerbée par le manque d'interopérabilité des données et de collaborations efficaces entre les différents intervenants au sein des diverses juridictions et entre eux. Notre travail analytique s'appuie sur : 1) Un examen de la documentation pertinente sur les derniers défis posés aux chaînes d'approvisionnement (CA), au transport intermodal de marchandises et au commerce international, en identifiant les bases de données à utiliser ; 2) Un examen comparatif de certaines initiatives pertinentes pour donner un aperçu des meilleures pratiques en matière de chaînes d'approvisionnement numériques mises en œuvre au Canada, aux États-Unis et dans l'Union européenne.; 3) Des entrevues et des discussions avec des experts de Transports Canada, de Statistique Canada, du Centre canadien de données sur les transports (CCDT) et d'Affaires mondiales Canada, ainsi qu'avec la communauté de recherche du CIRANO et quatre institutions partenaires afin d'identifier les bases de données et les données qu'ils utilisent dans leurs recherches liées aux disponibilités de données et aux méthodologies pertinentes en matière de transport et de commerce, ainsi que les possibilités de recherche conjointe. Ses principaux constats peuvent être résumées comme suit : Le GLVMSL se caractérise par son échelle critique, sa complexité et son impact stratégique en tant que corridor commercial le plus vital de l'Amérique du Nord dans le cadre de l'intensification prévisible du commerce continental. 4 % du PIB canadien est attribué au secteur du transport et de la logistique (2018) : 1 000 milliards de dollars de marchandises déplacées chaque année : Les importations de biens et services équivalent à 33 % du PIB canadien et les exportations de biens et services équivalent à 32 %. Le secteur des transports joue un rôle essentiel dans la réalisation de l'engagement d'émissions nettes nulles d'ici à 2050. Tous les secteurs de l'économie canadienne sont touchés par les perturbations de la chaîne d'approvisionnement mondiale. L'incertitude et les menaces vont bien au-delà de la pandémie de COVID-19. Les pressions liées à la "démondialisation" et à la régionalisation croissante des chaînes d'approvisionnement s'accentuent. L'innovation, et donc les performances économiques, dépendent de plus en plus de la quantité et de la qualité des données. Les données transforment l'économie et la société du Canada et sont désormais au cœur du commerce mondial. "Les données sur les transports sont de moins en moins disponibles : Le Canada doit faire des données une priorité pour une stratégie nationale des transports." * "La façon dont le gouvernement du Canada recueille, gère et gouverne les données - et la façon dont il accède aux données et les partage avec d'autres gouvernements, secteurs et Canadiens - doit changer. Pour citer ce rapport : Alain Dudoit & Molivann Panot & Thierry Warin, 2021. "Vers une plateforme multipartite de partage de données et d'échange de connaissances sur le commerce et le transport intermodal", Rapport de projet CIRANO, 2021RP-27, CIRANO. Pour une revue de littérature plus générale : Alain Dudoit & Molivann Panot & Thierry Warin, 2021. "Bibliographie : Vers une plateforme multipartite de partage de données et d'échange de connaissances sur le commerce et le transport intermodal", Rapport de projet CIRANO, 2021RP-27, CIRANO
    Keywords: Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway trade corridor,data science,intermodal transportation,data interoperability,supply chain, Corridor commercial Grands Lacs - Voie maritime du Saint-Laurent,science des données,transport intermodal,interopérabilité des données,chaîne d'approvisionnement
    Date: 2021–12–15
  29. By: Leonarda Srdelić (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia); Marwil Jhonatan Dávila-Fernández (Bucknell University, Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, USA)
    Abstract: This article argues that Croatia’s economic performance over the past two decadesis deeply related to the dynamics of international trade. Under the premise that what isbought and sold in international markets reflects the economy’s fundamentals, we show that the rate of growth compatible with equilibrium in the balance-of-payments, i.e. the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier, is a good predictor of the country’s actual long-rungrowth rate. For this purpose, we apply a State-space model and the Kalman smoother to obtain time-varying parameter estimates of the exports and imports functions. We proceed by using these estimates to investigate the determinants of international non-price competitiveness. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average LeastSquares (WALS) techniques are combined to tackle model selection uncertainty. It is shown that R&D investments and human capital accumulation are the most important explanatory variables. We conclude by highlighting the policy relevance of our findingsto the evaluation of Croatia’s catching-up performance as part of the European Union
    Keywords: Economic growth, International trade, State-space model, Bayesian model averaging, Croatia.
    JEL: F43 O11 O40
    Date: 2022–02–17
  30. By: Hamimed Soumia (University Mustapha Stambouli [Mascara]); Mokhtari Fayçal (University Mustapha Stambouli [Mascara])
    Abstract: This article attempts to examine the impact of institutional quality and trade openness on economic growth. To do this, we used panel data for 10 countries in transition (CEECs) over the period 2002-2018. The results confirmed that institutional quality and trade openness have a positive and statistically significant impact on long-term economic growth.
    Abstract: Cet article tente d'examiner l'impact de la qualité institutionnelle et de l'ouverture commerciale sur la croissance économique. Pour ce faire, nous avons utilisé des données de panel pour 10 pays en transition (PECO) sur la période 2002-2018. Les résultats ont confirmés le fait que la qualité institutionnelle et l'ouverture commerciale ont un impact positif et statistiquement significatif sur la croissance économique à long terme.
    Keywords: Qualité institutionnelle,ouverture commerciale,croissance économique,données de panel Code Jel : E02,F10,B22,O47 institutional quality,trade openness,economic growth,panel data. JEL Classification Codes : E02,O47
    Date: 2021–12–30
  31. By: Palizha AIREBULE; Haitao CHENG; ISHIKAWA Jota
    Abstract: We explore the carbon emissions of the world's five highest carbon emitters by applying the shared responsibility (SR) criterion, under which both producers and consumers share the responsibility for emissions. Using the SR method based on the value-added approach, we can investigate carbon emissions at both national and sectoral levels. Between 2002–2014, carbon emissions in China and India grew dramatically. SR increased by 157% in China and 116% in India. The main driving force of China's carbon emissions was the rapid growth of its exports, and the main driver of India's carbon emissions was its high carbon-intensive production technologies. Although carbon emissions had a declining trend in the USA and Japan, it could have resulted from cross-border carbon leakage. More than 40% of the five countries' national carbon emissions under SR were attributed to "electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply." This overwhelming share was attributable to their large amounts of production and high carbon emission intensity.
    Date: 2021–12
  32. By: Beguin, Malo (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper builds on a Melitz model to compare the welfare effects of three classic legal frameworks used in trade agreements: national treatment, mutual recognition, and harmonization. I specifically deal with two countries setting quality standards in a world where love-for-quality is heterogeneous across country. My results show that harmonization is the best choice in terms of national welfare when exporters are confronted with both lower and higher foreign standards. In addition, with a higher foreign standard, harmonization improves competition in a better way than mutual recognition.
    Date: 2021–11–01
  33. By: Kazeem Bello Ajide (University of Lagos, Nigeria); Ekundayo Peter Mesagan (Pan Atlantic University, Lagos, Nigeria)
    Abstract: Environmental sustainability and climatic change mitigation seem central in the fight against global warming and continuous human sustenance in the 21st century. However, non-renewable and renewable consumption energies lie at the core of these pollution concerns, particularly among the G20 economies that are top pollution emitters in the world. Unlike other mediators in energy-pollution nexus, capital investment has been argued to ameliorate or amplify the relationship. To this end, the study specifically sets out to unravel the mediating role of capital investment in energy-pollution link together with other pollution confounders including trade openness, foreign direct investment and energy use for G20 economies over the period 1990-2017. Using the pooled mean group estimator, the study accounts for both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity among the countries. They key findings show that renewable energy to negatively impact carbon emissions in both the short- and long-run, while non-renewable energy positively having a reverse impact. In addition, the results show that capital investment as lowering pollution in the short-run but increases it in the long-run. Lastly, on interacting capital investment with renewable energy, pollution is found to reduce to pollution in both short- and long-run, while its interaction with non-renewable energy expands pollution in both short- and long-run. On the policy front, since capital investment provides an important channel to reduce pollution in G20 nations, it is therefore recommended that if energy consumption is to work through the capital investment channel to lower pollution in the G20, the proportion of renewable energy must increase relative to non-renewable energy in their energy mix.
    Keywords: Capital Investment; Renewable Energy; Non-renewable Energy; Carbon Emissions
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q53 F23 O50
    Date: 2022–01
  34. By: Robinson, Sherman; Anderson, Lillian; Dunston, Shahnila; Gabriel, Sherwin; Komarek, Adam M.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Sulser, Timothy B.
    Abstract: The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes a new country-level version of the model. IMPACT-SIMM (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade–Standard IFPRI Multimarket Model) is a partial equilibrium, multi-market, simulation model of the production, supply, and demand of agricultural commodities within a country or group of countries. It simulates the operation of agricultural markets, solving for equilibrium prices within a country and, in multi-country mode, global markets. It is designed to be a “portable†and potentially open-source version of the IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) IMPACT3 model documented in Robinson et al. (2015). IMPACT-SIMM shares model specification, equations, and computer code with IMPACT3, but is designed to be more flexible in application. It allows users to specify a standard multi-market model at any level of aggregation by commodities and countries by changing data inputs, without any change in model code. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies at the level of individual countries or groups of countries.
    Keywords: WORLD; commodities; trade; climate change; technological changes; commodity markets; prices; nutrition; ex ante impact assessment; modelling; agriculture; international trade; IMPACT model; multimarket model
    Date: 2021
  35. By: Fenwick, Clare (Studio Europe Maastricht, RS: Studio Europa Maastricht, Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark)
    Abstract: Freedom of movement is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU) and yet this key pillar of European integration has become a topic of controversy as member states find their labour markets under pressure. This article examines key trends in intra-EU labour migration and explores what existing migration data has to offer researchers studying EU migration related research questions.
    JEL: J61
    Date: 2022–02–17
  36. By: Kabinet Kaba (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Mahamat Moustapha (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan African firms face enormous obstacles to their development. The main constraints to business performance identified are poor access to finance and a weak domestic market. In this paper, we examine how international remittances affect firms' performance. Specifically, we investigate the role of remittances on capital accumulation, sales, and employment in 34,010 firms operating in 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 2006 and 2020. Using a fixed-effect instrumental variable approach to control for the endogeneity of remittances, we find that international remittances positively affect the share of capital held by nationals in manufacturing firms. Moreover, international remittances positively affect sales in non-manufacturing firms, while a negative effect on the sales of manufacturing firms is observed. Regarding the effect of remittances on employment, we find a positive impact on both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. Heterogeneity tests suggest that the effect of remittances on firms' performance is larger in less financially developed and non-resource-rich countries. As for the negative impact of remittances on sales in manufacturing firms, the results show that it is entirely due to small firms. Finally, using remittances per capita instead of remittances relative to GDP, similar result are found.
    Keywords: Remittances,Firm Performance,Entrepreneurship,Saving and Capital Investment,Firm Employment,Africa
    Date: 2021
  37. By: Schnyder, Gerhard; Sallai, Dorottya
    Abstract: We investigate how subsidiaries’ political capabilities in emerging markets are not just shaped by their home- or host country institutions, but by both simultaneously - presenting a dilemma for subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in host countries. Subsidiaries need to develop CPA that simultaneously “fit” parent company requirements and “external fit” requirements in relation to the host environment. Achieving this dual fit is particularly difficult in volatile host contexts, where the value of political capabilities changes rapidly. Subsidiaries face a dilemma because the easily transferable capabilities – that draw on parent resources - lose value due to their decreasing “external fit” with the host country’s volatile institutional environment. Conversely, the most valuable relational political capabilities lack “internal fit,” as they may not be legitimate in the home environment. To understand how firms deal with this dilemma, we develop a typology of political capabilities that takes into account their transferability/stickiness and their dynamic institutional contingency in the host country. Our study shows that MNEs - even from institutionally very different economies - can successfully transfer political capabilities to develop effective CPA in a volatile political environment. Yet, as political risk becomes discontinuous, this strategy may reach its limits.
    Keywords: nonmarket strategy; subsidiaries; capabilities; CPA; risk
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2020–06–01
  38. By: Aliénor Cameron (Climate Economics Chair, Université Paris-Nanterre & EconomiX-CNRS); Marc Baudry (Climate Economics Chair, Université Paris-Nanterre & EconomiX-CNRS)
    Abstract: On 14 July 2021, the European Commission formally adopted a proposal for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to mitigate the risk of carbon leakage caused by its increasingly ambitious environmental policies. There is a gap between the ways in which this issue is discussed in political spheres and the evidence provided by economic literature on it. The aim of this paper is to bridge this gap by presenting the context and policy debate surrounding carbon leakage and CBAs in the EU, reviewing the state of the economic literature on this topic, and discussing further research that is necessary to answer remaining policy concerns and unresolved research questions.
    Keywords: climate policy, carbon border adjustments, carbon leakage, ,
    JEL: H23 L51 O33 Q58
    Date: 2022–02
  39. By: Mbiankeu Nguea, Stéphane; KAGUENDO, Ulrich Vianney Elisée
    Abstract: Despite the advancements towards Sustainable Development Goal 7, access to electricity in Africa is still lagging far behind the goal. In this study, we employ a panel data covering 36 African countries from 2000 to 2017 to investigate the effects of FDI, remittances and foreign aid on access to electricity. We use a dynamic empirical model based on system GMM to control for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables. The results show that FDI and remittances matter for increasing access to electricity. Also, foreign aid reduces access to electricity. We also find that remittances reduce urban-rural disparities in access to electricity, while FDI and foreign aid increase disparities. Finally, these results remain globally robust when we perform sub-regional analyses.
    Keywords: FDI, Remittances, Foreign aid, Access to electricity, System GMM, Africa
    JEL: F21 F24 F35 Q41
    Date: 2022–01–07
  40. By: Linsi, Lukas; Hopkin, Jonathan; Jaupart, Pascal
    Abstract: Existing studies of the political determinants of top incomes and inequality tend to focus on developments within individual countries, neglecting the role of interdependencies that transcend national borders. This article argues that the sharp rises in top incomes observed in recent years are in part a product of specific features originating in the US political economy, which were subsequently exported to other economies through the global expansion of US-based financial investors. To test the argument, we collect fine-grained micro-level data on executive pay and firm ownership structures for a comprehensive sample of publicly listed firms in the United Kingdom (UK). Our analyses uncover robust evidence that the Americanization of UK firm ownership leads to the financialization of remuneration practices and sizeable pay increases for high-level managers at those firms. Scrutinizing the causal mechanisms underlying this effect, we find them to be more consistent with changes in bargaining power inside firms rather than coercion from outside or exogenous shifts in labor markets for executives. The findings show the disruptive potential of Wall Street investments abroad to empower local managerial elites to capture greater rents and, more generally, demonstrate the need to take the transnational seriously in order to understand patterns of inequality in the global political economy.
    Keywords: inequality; multinational firms; global economy; transnational diffusion; financialization; Americanization; shareholder value ideology; corporate governance; P2SKP1_168289; International Inequalities Institute (Research Innovation Fund 2016)
    JEL: R14 J01 N0
    Date: 2021–11–29
  41. By: Delis, Fotios; Economidou, Claire; Hasan, Iftekhar
    Abstract: Does constitutional democratization affect profit-shifting strategies among firms? Using a global sample of multinational enterprises, we develop a subsidiary-year measure of profit-shifting and examine how this measure responds to changes in constitutional democracy and the subsequent evolution of the host country’s institutions. Our main findings show that a one-standard-deviation increase in the Polity IV democracy index yields an approximately 37% decrease in profit-shifting to other countries. Protection of property rights, contract enforcement, and superior regulatory quality emerge as the key institutional channels that define the decision to keep profits at home. Our results are robust to an instrumental variables approach and a large battery of additional robustness tests.
    Keywords: profit shifting; multinational enterprises; democracy; institutions; non parametric
    JEL: E02 H26 M48 O50
    Date: 2022–01–28
  42. By: Ding Ding; Mr. Yannick Timmer
    Abstract: We estimate a variety of exchange rate elasticities of international tourism. We show that, in addition to the bilateral exchange rate between the tourism origin and destination countries, the exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar is also an important driver of tourism flows and pricing. The effect of US dollar pricing is stronger for tourism destination countries with higher dollar borrowing, indicating a complementarity between dominant currency pricing and financing. Country-specific dominant currencies (CSDCs) play only a minor role for the average country, but are important for tourism-dependent countries and those with a high concentration of tourists. The importance of the dollar exchange rate represents a strong piece of evidence of dominant currency pricing (DCP) in the international trade of services and suggests that the benefits of exchange rate flexibility for tourism-dependent countries may be weaker than previously thought.
    Keywords: International tourism; trade of services; exchange rate elasticity; dominant currency pricing; dominant currency financing
    Date: 2022–02–04
  43. By: Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Paz, Cynthia; Berrospi, Maria Lucia
    Abstract: Coffee is a growth market. Current estimates indicate that global coffee production (in volume) has increased by more than 60% since the 1990s. Coffee is produced by around 25 million farmers, which are mainly smallholders in developing and least developed countries, and over 70% of the coffee produced is exported, resulting in about 20 billion US dollars annual foreign exchange earnings (ICO, 2020). COVID-19 represented a severe joint supply and demand shock to the global coffee sector, particularly during the first months after the start of the pandemic. As noted by Hernandez et al. (2020), the coffee industry experienced important disruptions downstream the value chain, including the functioning of key export infrastructure and international shipping, which combined with local currency devaluations and volatile coffee prices, which resulted in significant challenges for coffee growers, farm workers, and traders.
    Keywords: GUATEMALA; LATIN AMERICA; CENTRAL AMERICA; NORTH AMERICA; coffee; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; food production; trade; value chains; coffeee production; coffee growers
    Date: 2021
  44. By: Loring, Philip A. (University of Guelph); Sanyal, Palash (University of Saskatchewan)
    Abstract: Global food systems have increased in complexity significantly since the mid-20th century, through such innovations as mechanization, irrigation, genetic modification, and the globalization of supply chains. While complexification can be an effective problem-solving strategy, over-complexification can cause environmental degradation and lead systems to become increasingly dependent on external subsidies and vulnerable to collapse. Here, we explore a wide array of evidence of complexification and over-complexification in contemporary global food systems, drawing on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and elsewhere. We find that food systems in developed, emerging, and least developed countries have all followed a trajectory of complexification, but that return on investments for energy and other food system inputs have significantly declined—a key indicator of over-complexification. Food systems in developed countries are further along in the process of over-complexification than least developed and emerging countries. Recent agricultural developments, specifically the introduction of genetically modified crops, have not altered this trend or improved return on investments for inputs into food systems. Similarly, emerging innovations belonging to the “digital agricultural revolution” are likewise accompanied by energy demands that may further exacerbate over-complexification. To reverse over-complexification, we discuss strategies including innovation by subtraction, agroecology, and disruptive technology.
    Date: 2021–10–02
  45. By: Lassana Toure (Université de Ségou); M Diagne; M Sagbo
    Abstract: This paper is a comparative analysis of the direct and indirect effects of official development assistance (ODA) and migrant remittances (MRT) on economic growth and income inequality in Senegal. Using the instrumental variables method to address the endogeneity problem, the econometric results obtained show a very significant positive impact of MRT on economic growth (13 points increase in the economic growth rate in the long run). Income inequalities should decrease by 12% if the average level of migrant transfers as a % of GDP over the long term increases by 1%. Income gaps are also reduced thanks to price stabilisation (Gini coefficient falls by 7% as a result of price control). Following a 1% increase in the share of ODA in GDP, the economic growth rate would decrease by 2 points while income inequality would increase significantly by 27%.
    Abstract: Ce travail est une analyse comparée des effets directs et indirects de l'aide publique au développement (APD) et des transferts de fonds des migrants (TFM) sur la croissance économiqueet les inégalités de revenu au Sénégal.En utilisant la méthode par variables instrumentales pour régler le problème d'endogénéité, les résultats économétriques obtenus montrent un impact positif très significatif des TFM sur la croissance économique (13 points d'augmentation du taux de croissance économique sur le long terme). Les inégalités de revenu devraient chuter de 12% si le niveau moyen des transferts des migrants en % du PIB sur le long terme augmente de 1%. Les écarts de revenus sont aussi réduits grâce à la stabilisation des prix (diminution du coefficient de Gini de 7% suite à la maitrise des prix).Suite à une hausse de 1% de la part de l'APD dans le PIB, le taux de croissance économique diminuerait de 2 pointstandisque les inégalités de revenus augmenteraient significativement de 27%
    Keywords: economic growth,income inequality,foreign aid,migrant remittances,instrumental variables.
    Date: 2021–11–11
  46. By: Krummel, Daniel; Siegfried, Patrick
    Abstract: Samsung has been implicitly linked to human rights abuses and wider social downgrading propagated within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Reports by different studies have shown artisanal cobalt mines (ASM) to exploit child labour and subject workers to perilous conditions. The IT multinational is dependent upon Congolese cobalt as a key element in lithiumion batteries used to produce their array of electronics. However, irresponsible cobalt sourcing practices undertaken by Tier 1 suppliers, Glencore and Huayou, have resulted in ASM operations being incorporated into Samsung’s global value chain, as Tier 2 suppliers. Analysis of the relationships underpinning Samsung’s cobalt value chain theoretical framework, highlights the presence of a relational governance structure, with captive elements among upstream Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers. Samsung is thereby reliant upon both Glencore and Huayou to transmit and enforce private codes of conduct down the value chain to expel human rights abuses. In conjunction, the DRC’s weak and unstable institutional environment has facilitated corruption and the improper enforcement of laws across the ASM industry. It is thereby imperative that Samsung takes ownership of the issues present within its value chain, as both Tier 1 suppliers and the Congolese government have failed to ensure responsible cobalt sourcing practices to date. This report recommends that Samsung adopt a holistic action plan, not only utilising their own resources and capabilities, but also those of critical stakeholders including Tier 1 suppliers, NGOs and the DRC and South Korean governments. Most prominently, this report suggests that supply chain transparency can be improved using certificates of origin and blockchain technology. Furthermore, it is recommended that poverty alleviation is targeted as a key measure through “Cobalt for Development”, an action plan designed to instigate both social and economic upgrading within ASM operations and the wider community. By employing a multi-scalar approach and addressing the issues inherent across multiple governance levels, Samsung can ensure a responsible source of cobalt be sustained.
    Keywords: Value Chain, Ethics, Child Labour
    JEL: A13 L6 L72 L9 L96 M11
    Date: 2021–02–26

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