nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2022‒02‒21
thirty-two papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Economic Integration and Agglomeration of Multinational Production with Transfer Pricing By Kato, Hayato; Okoshi, Hirofumi
  2. The Changing Shape of the World Automobile Industry: A Multilayer Network Analysis of International Trade in Components and Parts By Margherita Russo; Fabrizio Alboni; Jorge Carreto Sangines; Manlio De Domenico; Giuseppe Mangioni; Simone Righi; Annamaria Simonazzi
  3. The US–China phase one trade deal : An economic analysis of the managed trade agreement By Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian
  4. Potential consequences of post-Brexit trade barriers for earnings inequality in the UK By Rachel Griffith; Peter Levell; Agnes Norris Keiller
  5. Why Do People Oppose Foreign Acquisitions? Evidence from Japanese Individual-Level Data (Japanese) By ITO Banri; TANAKA Ayumu; JINJI Naoto
  6. Global value chains of the EU member states: Policy options in the current debate By Kolev, Galina V.; Obst, Thomas
  7. An effective industrial policy tool in China By Julien Gourdon; Laura Hering; Stéphanie Monjont; Sandra Poncet
  8. Economic Integration and Agglomeration of Multinational Production with Transfer Pricing By Hayato Kato; Hirofumi Okoshi
  9. Trade policy 2.0 and algorithms: towards the "easification" of FTA implementation By Lucian Cernat
  10. Low-cost products in the internationalization of agri-food markets: The case of European exports of milk powders to West Africa By Christian Corniaux; Guillaume Duteurtre; Djiby Dia; Vincent Chatellier
  11. Can EU carbon border adjustment measures propel WTO climate talks? By Gary Clyde Hufbauer; Jisun Kim (POSCO Research Institute; Jeffrey J. Schott
  12. Agri-food trade in the EU and France between 2000 and 2020 By Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch
  13. Labor-related knowledge transfers from Chinese foreign direct investment in Ethiopia and Tanzania By Ellis, Mia; McMillan, Margaret S.; Sovani, Manali
  14. Do natural resources and FDI tend to erode or support the development of national institutions? By Grivas Chiyaba; Carl Singleton
  15. Covid-19, international agricultural economy and animal sectors: the case of China, the United States and the EU By Vincent Chatellier; Jean-Marc Chaumet; Thierry Pouch
  16. Importing inequality: immigration and the top 1 percent By Arun Advani; Felix Koenig; Lorenzo Pessina; Andy Summers
  17. Harmonizing and reducing trade distorting domestic support: An analysis of the impacts of new domestic support disciplines at the WTO By Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria
  18. Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League By Max Marczinek; Stephan Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
  19. International Transport costs: New Findings from modeling additive cost By Guillaume Daudin; Jérôme Héricourt; Lise Patureau
  20. The Trade Effects of Pandemics By João Tovar Jalles; Georgios Karras
  21. Measuring the effect of distance on the network topology of the Global Container Shipping Network By Dimitrios Tsiotas; César Ducruet
  22. Productivity Growth and Spillovers across European Industries: A Global Value Chain Perspective Based on EURO KLEMS By Liu, Weilin; Cheng, Qian; Sickles, Robin C.
  23. Entry and Spatial Competition of Intermediaries: Evidence from Thailand’s Rice Market By Bunyada Laoprapassorn
  24. Managing the Impact of Climate on Migration: Evidence from Mexico By Chort, Isabelle; de la Rupelle, Maëlys
  25. Brexit and Multilingualism in the European Union By Victor Ginsburgh; Juan D. Moreno-Ternero
  26. Gauging the gravity of the situation: The use and abuse of expertise in estimating the economic costs of Brexit By Semken, Christoph; Hay, Colin
  27. Mergers and Acquisitions by Chinese Multinationals in Europe: The Effect on the Innovation Performance of Acquiring Firms By Tian Xiong
  28. The legacies of armed conflict: insights from stayees and returning forced migrants By Isabel Ruiz; Carlos Vargas-Silva
  29. Symmetric and asymmetric relationships between renewable energy, oil imports, arms exports, military spending, and economic growth in China By Ben Youssef, Slim
  30. Cross-Border Activities as a Source of Information: Evidence from Insider Trading during the COVID-19 Crisis By Sanz, Leandro
  31. Climate and Migration By Katrin Millock; Cees Withagen
  32. Tenure security research: Key findings and lessons learned By McLain, Rebecca

  1. By: Kato, Hayato; Okoshi, Hirofumi
    Abstract: Do low corporate taxes always favor multinational production over economic integration? We propose a two-country model in which multinationals choose the locations of production plants and foreign distribution affiliates and shift profits between them through transfer prices. With high trade costs, plants are concentrated in the low-tax country; surprisingly, this pattern reverses with low trade costs. Indeed, economic integration has a non-monotonic impact: falling trade costs first decreases and then increases the plant share in the high-tax country, which we empirically confirm. Moreover, allowing for transfer pricing makes tax competition tougher and international coordination on transfer-pricing regulation can be beneficial.
    Keywords: Profit shifting; Multinational firms; Intra-firm trade; Trade costs; Foreign direct investment (FDI)
    JEL: F12 F23 H25 H26
    Date: 2022–01–09
  2. By: Margherita Russo (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Fabrizio Alboni (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Jorge Carreto Sangines (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico); Manlio De Domenico (Fondazione Bruno Kessler); Giuseppe Mangioni (University of Catania); Simone Righi (Ca' Foscari University of Venice Italy); Annamaria Simonazzi (Sapienza Università di Roma, Italy)
    Abstract: In 2018, after 25 years of the North America Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the United States requested new rules which, among other requirements, increased the regional content in the production of automotive components and parts traded between the three partner countries, United States, Canada and Mexico. Signed by all three countries, the new trade agreement, USMCA, is to go into force in 2022. Nonetheless, after the 2020 Presidential election, the new treaty's future is under discussion, and its impact on the automotive industry is not entirely defined. Another significant shift in this industry - the accelerated rise of electric vehicles - also occurred in 2020: while the COVID-19 pandemic largely halted most plants in the automotive value chain all over the world, at the reopening, the tide is now running against internal combustion engine vehicles, at least in the announcements and in some large investments planned in Europe, Asia and the US. The definition of the pre-pandemic situation is a very helpful starting point for the analysis of the possible repercussions of the technological and geo-political transition, which has been accelerated by the epidemic, on geographical clusters and sectorial specializations of the main regions and countries. This paper analyzes the trade networks emerging in the past 25 years in a new analytical framework. In the economic literature on international trade, the study of the automotive global value chains has been addressed by using network analysis, focusing on the centrality of geographical regions and countries while largely overlooking the contribution of countries' bilateral trading in components and parts as structuring forces of the subnetwork of countries and their specific position in the overall trade network. The paper focuses on such subnetworks as meso-level structures emerging in trade network over the last 25 years. Using the Infomap multilayer clustering algorithm, we are able to identify clusters of countries and their specific trades in the automotive international trade network and to highlight the relative importance of each cluster, the interconnections between them, and the contribution of countries and of components and parts in the clusters. We draw the data from the UN Comtrade database of directed export and import flows of 30 automotive components and parts among 42 countries (accounting for 98% of world trade flows of those items). The paper highlights the changes that occurred over 25 years in the geography of the trade relations, in particular with regard to denser and more hierarchical network generated by Germany's trade relations within EU countries and by the US preferential trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the upsurge of China. With a similar overall variety of traded components and parts within the main clusters (dominated respectively by Germany, US and Japan-China), the Infomap multilayer analysis singles out which components and parts determined the relative positions of countries in the various clusters and the changes over time in the relative positions of countries and their specializations in multilateral trades. Connections between clusters increase over time, while the relative importance of the main clusters and of some individual countries change significantly. The focus on US and Mexico and on Germany and Central Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) will drive the comparative analysis.
    Keywords: international trade; regional specialization; automotive components and parts; dynamics of change; Infomap multilayer analysis.
    JEL: F14 L62 D85
    Date: 2022–01–03
  3. By: Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian
    Abstract: In light of the recent tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the US, interest in quantifying the effects of the so-called phase one agreement has risen. To this end, the paper quantifies the impact of the asymmetric managed trade agreement using a multi-country open-economy dynamic general quilibrium model. Besides assessing the direct implications for China and the US, trade diversion effects are also analyzed. The model-based analysis finds noticeable positive (negative) impacts of the agreement for the US (China) as well as negative spillover effects for countries not directly affected by the managed trade deal due to trade diversion. The impact of possible future trade agreements is also examined.
    JEL: F13 F41 F42
    Date: 2022–01–20
  4. By: Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester); Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Agnes Norris Keiller (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: We examine the distributional consequences of post-Brexit trade barriers on wages in the UK. We quantify changes in trade costs across industries accounting for input-output links across domestic industries and global value chains. We allow for demand substitution by ?rms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We document the impact at the individual and household level. Blue-collar workers are the most exposed to negative consequences of higher trade costs, because they are more likely to be employed in industries that face increases in trade costs, and are less likely to have good alternative employment opportunities available in their local labour markets. Overall new trade costs have a regressive impact with lower-paid workers facing higher exposure than higher-paid workers once we account for the exposure of other household members.
    Date: 2020–08–06
  5. By: ITO Banri; TANAKA Ayumu; JINJI Naoto
    Abstract: This study empirically examines the determinants of individuals' attitudes about inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using responses from questionnaire surveys that were originally designed. Individuals' preferences for inward FDI tend to differ between greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and people are more likely to have a negative attitude toward M&A than greenfield investments. Our results show that people with a negative image of the so-called "vulture fund" for foreign capital tend to oppose inward FDI, and this is more pronounced for M&A than greenfield investments. Moreover, loss aversion and high time preference rates are strongly related to opposition to inward FDI, and people with such behavioral biases tend to refuse indigenous firms to be acquired by foreign capital, even if they agree to accept greenfield investment. These results indicate that people's preferences for inward FDI depend more on non-economic attributes than economic attributes, which is consistent with recent empirical studies on trade policy preferences.
    Date: 2021–01
  6. By: Kolev, Galina V.; Obst, Thomas
    Abstract: In 2020, EU companies imported intermediate products worth 2.4 trillion euros, which made up more than half of total merchandise imports of the EU. Compared to the pre-crisis year 2019, imports of intermediates decreased by 13 percent, partly driven by the lower fuel prices. A detailed analysis of trade in value added shows that in most EU countries more than half of the imported intermediate products come from other EU member states. Extra-EU sources of value added in domestic final demand and exports are particularly important in the smaller economies like Luxembourg and Malta, but also in the biggest EU member states Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Among the Non-EU countries, especially the USA, UK, China, and Russia contribute substantially in terms of value added to the production process of EU member states. The USA are the most important source of value added outside the EU for several countries like Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Spain, etc. The UK is the top non-EU-provider of value added for Cyprus. China delivers the largest share of non-EU value added in some countries from Central and Eastern Europe like Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Poland. Russia is particularly important for the Baltic countries, Bulgaria and Slovakia. Among the EU member states, Germany is the most important source of value added for the domestic final demand and exports in most of the other EU countries - notable exceptions are Belgium and Ireland, where more value added comes from France than from Germany. The corona crisis has revealed the fragility of global value chains. Industries are increasingly and asymmetrically connected with each other. Value chains were internationalized to achieve efficiency and economies of scale. Outsourcing, offshoring and lean production lines with low inventory stocks, however, have made the European economy vulnerable to disruptions and shortages of supply chains. A disruption caused by an event such as the corona crisis can propagate along supply chains affecting direct and indirect suppliers as well as customers of disaster-stricken firms. Hence, the perceived trade-off between low prices of intermediate products and the increased risk of being dependent on complex global supply chains has gained new attention in the context of the pandemic. European policymakers are thus calling for a larger role of reshoring in some industries. However, the actual size and dimensions of reshoring in Europe and Germany in the past have been limited as this is only one of many possible strategies to increase resilience of value chains. This indicates a misalignment between the perspective of companies and priorities of policy makers. The design of the value chain network is a matter of economic decision-making and a potential structural change can only be initiated by companies in the course of reassessing the above-mentioned trade-off and of reconsidering the risks of international supply chains. Besides reshoring, other potential measures to increase resilience concern the diversification of supply chains, increasing stockkeeping, or adjusting delivery times. In terms of economic policy, state interventions are only reasonable for industries producing essentials (e.g. certain medicines or personal protective equipment). However, it is crucial that supply chains, which are already disrupted, are not further affected by additional trade conflicts. Protectionist measures covered in the strategy of restructuring supply chains motivated by the current crisis hence entail the danger of reversing the achievements in trade liberalization and specialization of the last decades.
    JEL: F10 F13 F02
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Julien Gourdon (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Laura Hering; Stéphanie Monjont; Sandra Poncet
    Abstract: Our study shows that China's export value-added tax (VAT) rebate system is a major industrial policy that affects its exports. We use export data at the HS6-product level for a panel of 329 Chinese cities over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in the export VAT tax have affected China's export performance. We consider different trade margins in terms of volumes, prices, and the number of countries served. To counter endogeneity, we exploit variations in the expected impact of the export VAT rebates by trade regime, which come from an eligibility rule disqualifying certain export flows from the rebates. Our results suggest that a 1% decline in the export VAT tax leads to a 7.2% relative increase in eligible export values at the city level. This effect is due to an adjustment of quantities and the number of foreign markets served while the average unit values of exports remain unchanged.
    Abstract: Peu connu, le système de remboursement de la TVA sur les intrants aux exportateurs constitue un réel levier de la politique industrielle chinoise. Son impact discriminant pour les entreprises chinoises affecte fortement la composition et le dynamisme des exportations du pays. Depuis 1994, la Chine a mis en place un système de taxe sur la valeur ajoutée (TVA). Le pays n'en a pas fait une taxe neutre pour les exportateurs, à la différence, par exemple, des pays de l'UE. Ainsi, si les exportations ne sont pas soumises à cette taxe, les autorités ne remboursent pas systématiquement la totalité de la TVA que les exportateurs ont payée sur les intrants achetés dans le pays.
    Keywords: évaluation des politiques,système de TVA,taxe aux exportations,performance des exportations,élasticité au commerce,Chine
    Date: 2021–07
  8. By: Hayato Kato; Hirofumi Okoshi
    Abstract: Do low corporate taxes always favor multinational production over economic integration? We propose a two-country model in which multinationals choose the locations of production plants and foreign distribution affiliates and shift profits between them through transfer prices. With high trade costs, plants are concentrated in the low-tax country; surprisingly, this pattern reverses with low trade costs. Indeed, economic integration has a non-monotonic impact: falling trade costs first decreases and then increases the plant share in the high-tax country, which we empirically confirm. Moreover, allowing for transfer pricing makes tax competition tougher and international coordination on transfer-pricing regulation can be beneficial.
    Date: 2022–01
  9. By: Lucian Cernat
    Abstract: The EU is the trading bloc with the most extensive network of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). These trade agreements offer tremendous market access opportunities for EU companies. However, FTAs are becoming increasingly complex. Therefore, in trying to cover many trading partners and a growing range of trade-related issues, a critical question emerges: how easy is it for EU firms to understand and take advantage of FTAs? This is a crucial question since a perfectly negotiated FTA offering optimal trade conditions would be useless if no exporter would make use of it. One effective way to facilitate FTA implementation is to rely on a combination of firm-level Trade Policy 2.0 combined with the use of algorithms to codify trade rules in simple online tools for SMEs. This paper describes two concrete examples (ROSA and Access2Procurement) deployed by the EU to "easify" the FTA implementation and ensure that companies can understand their provisions and take advantage of their benefits. L'UE est le bloc commercial qui possède le plus vaste réseau d'accords de libre-échange (ALE) bilatéraux. Ces accords commerciaux offrent d'énormes possibilités d'accès au marché pour les entreprises de l'UE. Toutefois, les ALE sont de plus en plus complexes. Par conséquent, en essayant de couvrir de nombreux partenaires commerciaux et un éventail croissant de questions liées au commerce, une question cruciale se pose : dans quelle mesure est-il facile pour les entreprises de l'UE de comprendre et de tirer parti des ALE ? Il s'agit d'une question cruciale, car un ALE parfaitement négocié offrant des conditions commerciales optimales serait inutile si aucun exportateur n'y a recours. Heureusement, il existe des preuves solides suggérant que les exportateurs utilisent les ALE, y compris les petites et moyennes entreprises (PME). Un moyen efficace de faciliter la mise en œuvre des ALE consiste à s'appuyer sur une combinaison de la politique commerciale 2.0 au niveau de l'entreprise et de l'utilisation d'algorithmes pour codifier les règles commerciales dans des outils en ligne simples pour les PME. Ce document décrit deux exemples concrets (ROSA et Access2Procurement) déployés par l'UE pour "faciliter" la mise en œuvre des ALE et faire en sorte que les entreprises puissent comprendre leurs dispositions et profiter de leurs avantages.
    Keywords: FTA implementation,CETA,SMEs,rules of origin,public procurement,computational law,Trade Policy 2.0., Mise en Åuvre des ALE,AECG,PME,règles d'origine,marchés publics,droit computationnel,politique commerciale 2.0.
    Date: 2021–12–13
  10. By: Christian Corniaux (UMR SELMET - Systèmes d'élevage méditerranéens et tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Montpellier SupAgro - Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Guillaume Duteurtre (ISRA - Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles [Dakar]); Djiby Dia (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Vincent Chatellier (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: The internationalization of agricultural markets is a process that has been underway for many decades, some areas of the planet having a greater potential for agricultural production than others, at least in proportion to their population. The development of trade in agricultural and agri-food goods, encouraged in particular by logistical progress and liberalization policies (lowering of customs duties), concerns low value-added products (low-cost) destined for the poorest countries on the planet. The following analysis focuses on one of these products, namely blends of milk powder and palm oil, where trade flows have been growing rapidly for about a decade. The focus is on imports from West African countries for this particular product, which are mainly supplied to the European Union (EU), where these products are not traded. This approach has three main objectives: to gain a better understanding of the internal and external logic behind the development of these flows; to quantify the importance of these trade flows and the potential substitution effects that they induce in terms of imported dairy products; and to discuss the implications that these imports may have for local dairy sector.
    Abstract: L'internationalisation des marchés agricoles est un processus engagé depuis de nombreuses décennies, certaines zones de la planète ayant un potentiel de production agricole plus important que d'autres, du moins au prorata de leur population. Le développement du commerce de biens agricoles et agroalimentaires, encouragé notamment par les progrès logistiques et les politiques de libéralisation (baisse des droits de douanes), porte pour une part sur des produits à faible valeur ajoutée (low-cost) destinés souvent aux pays les plus pauvres de la planète. L'analyse qui suit s'intéresse à l'un de ces produits, à savoir les mélanges de poudre de lait et d'huile de palme, dont les courants d'échanges augmentent rapidement depuis environ une décennie. Une focalisation est faite principalement sur les importations des pays de l'Afrique de l'Ouest pour ce produit particulier, et dont les approvisionnements se font essentiellement dans l'Union européenne (UE), zone où ces produits ne sont pas commercialisés. Cette démarche poursuit trois objectifs principaux : mieux comprendre les logiques internes et externes qui sont à l'origine du développement de ces flux ; quantifier l'importance de ces courants d'échanges et des potentiels effets de substitution que ceux-ci induisent en termes de produits laitiers importés ; discuter des implications potentielles que ces importations peuvent avoir pour la filière laitière locale.
    Keywords: Agri-food trade,West Africa,Dairy sector,Low-cost products,Commerce agroalimentaire,Afrique de l’Ouest,Secteur laitier,Produits low-cost
    Date: 2021–12–09
  11. By: Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jisun Kim (POSCO Research Institute (POSCO Research Institute); Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Reforms proposed in the European Union’s "Fit for 55" climate policy package are likely to sharply increase the cost paid by European firms for their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recognizing that increased carbon prices would put European firms at a disadvantage in competing with imports from countries that produce without incurring these costs, the European Commission has proposed a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requiring that the most carbon-intensive EU imports either incur comparable carbon charges as EU firms or pay the equivalent of a carbon-based tariff. The CBAM aims to deter carbon leakage, which could arise if firms shift carbon-intensive production out of Europe to facilities in countries that do not tax GHG emissions (or tax at a low rate) and then export the goods to Europe. European production and output would suffer and global climate efforts to reduce GHG emissions would be undercut. The loftier goal is to encourage other countries to follow the European example and strengthen their own national decarbonization policies, which in turn would exempt their goods from CBAM charges. The CBAM would cover five carbon-intensive industries: iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizer, electricity, and cement. Countries most affected by the CBAM include Russia, China, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, South Korea, and India. Some are likely to contest the policy, claiming that the CBAM is a unilateral measure that violates World Trade Organization rules and bolsters protectionism while hampering rather than encouraging efforts in other countries to tackle climate change. A better and more feasible approach would be adoption of a CBAM moratorium while negotiations are conducted to promote carbon abatement policies that comply with the rules-based global trading system.
    Date: 2021–11
  12. By: Vincent Chatellier (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thierry Pouch (URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, APCA - Assemblée Permanente des Chambres d'Agriculture)
    Abstract: World agri-food trade has been growing steadily for several decades under the influence of a growing demand for food, particularly in Asia and Africa, and of an unequal territorial distribution of agronomic and productive potential. With a trade balance in agri-food products of nearly 40 billion euros in 2020, and moreover an improvement compared to the period before the Covid-19 health crisis, the European Union (EU-27) has become a major player in this trade. At the same time, it is the world's leading exporter and importer. Within the EU, competition between Member States has been particularly fierce in recent years, to the detriment of France, whose agri-food balance is deteriorating. Using information from three databases (Baci, Comext and French Customs), an analysis of the main trade dynamics is conducted here for the agri-food sector over a 20-year period (2000 to 2020).
    Abstract: Le commerce agroalimentaire mondial connait un développement soutenu depuis plusieurs décennies sous l'influence d'une demande alimentaire en croissance, notamment en Asie et en Afrique, et d'une répartition territoriale inégale des potentiels agronomiques et productifs. Avec un solde commercial en produits agroalimentaires de près de 40 milliards d'euros en 2020, de surcroît en amélioration par rapport à la période antérieure à la crise sanitaire de la Covid-19, l'Union européenne (UE-27) est devenue un acteur majeur de ce commerce. Elle cumule, en même temps, la première position mondiale tant des pays exportateurs et que des pays importateurs. Au sein de l'UE, la concurrence entre les Etats membres est particulièrement vive depuis quelques années, au détriment de la France dont le solde agroalimentaire se dégrade. En utilisant les informations issues de trois bases de données (Baci, Comext et Douanes françaises), une analyse des principales dynamiques commerciales est conduite ici pour le secteur agroalimentaire, et sur une période de 20 ans (2000 à 2020).
    Keywords: Agri-food trade,Exports,Imports,Competitiveness,EU,Commerce agroalimentaire,Exportations,Importations,Compétitivité,UE,France
    Date: 2021–12–09
  13. By: Ellis, Mia; McMillan, Margaret S.; Sovani, Manali
    Abstract: We examine worker training by Chinese manufacturing firms using nationally representative firm-level data from both Ethiopia and Tanzania. While Chinese firms make up a relatively small portion of the manufacturing industry in both Ethiopia and Tanzania, at the firm-level they contribute significantly to both domestic employment and labor training. In both countries more than 85 percent of the workers employed by Chinese firms are local, and Chinese firms (and other foreign firms) are more likely to offer labor training than their domestic counterparts. However, we find evidence that Chinese firms underperform relative to other foreign firms in the share of local workers employed, and in Tanzania the difference is especially large for managerial positions.
    Keywords: ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; TANZANIA; labour; training; knowledge; investment; manufacturing; foreign investment; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Chinese FDI; labour training; local employment
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Grivas Chiyaba (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Carl Singleton (Department of Economics, University of Reading)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationships between natural resources, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and the quality of national institutions, also known as ``the rules of the game''. Using a panel dataset of 69 developing countries over the period 1970–2015, we find negative and significant effects of natural resource use or extraction on the development of national institutions. We focus on legal and property rights, but these findings also apply to the quality of some other national institutions. Our results align with a theory that abundant natural resources lead to weakened institutions because of the potential for firms to secure monopoly rents. Further, we find that the effects of FDI inflows on institutional development are not robust to controlling for natural resource rents. This suggests that the latter tend to erode institutions regardless of whether those resources are exploited alongside increased foreign investment into the local economy.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Natural resource abundance, Institutional quality
    JEL: F21 O13 O17 Q33
    Date: 2022–02–18
  15. By: Vincent Chatellier (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Marc Chaumet (CNIEL - Centre National Interprofessionnel de l'Economie Laitière [Paris]); Thierry Pouch (URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, APCA - Assemblée Permanente des Chambres d'Agriculture)
    Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic is a major global event. A reflection on the first implications of this sanitary crisis for the world agricultural economy and the animal sectors of three geographical areas is proposed in this article. The agri-food systems have been strongly affected by this crisis, whose global economic impacts (a 3.5% drop in world gross domestic product and a 5.3% drop in international trade in goods between 2019 and 2020) are affecting the purchasing power of final consumers. However, they have resisted the crisis well, both in terms of supply (stability or slight growth in the volumes of meat and milk produced on a global scale) and trade. In 2021, the sharp rise in international prices for agricultural products and the rapid resumption of economic growth, particularly in the three zones more specifically studied here (China, the United States and the European Union), suggest that agriculture should remain under pressure from sustained world demand. More than Covid-19, the impact of African swine fever in China has had a major impact on international meat trade flows for several years. In addition, the growing Chinese appetite for dairy products is playing a central role in the development of international dairy markets, to the benefit of exporting areas including the EU and the US.
    Abstract: La pandémie de Covid-19 est un évènement mondial majeur. Une réflexion sur les premières implications de cette crise sanitaire pour l'économie agricole mondiale et les filières animales est proposée dans le cadre de cet article. Les secteurs agricole et agroalimentaire ont été fortement concernés par cette crise dont les impacts économiques globaux (baisse de 3,5 % du produit intérieur brut mondial et de 5,3 % des échanges internationaux de marchandises entre 2019 et 2020) affectent le pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs finaux. Ils ont cependant bien résisté à la crise, tant au niveau de l'offre (stabilité ou légère croissance des volumes produits de viandes et de lait à l'échelle mondiale) que du commerce. En 2021, la forte hausse des prix internationaux des produits agricoles et la reprise rapide de la croissance économique, notamment dans les trois zones plus spécifiquement étudiées ici (Chine, Etats-Unis et Union européenne), suggèrent que l'agriculture devrait rester sous la pression d'une demande mondiale soutenue. Plus que la Covid-19, l'impact de la peste porcine africaine en Chine a eu, depuis plusieurs années, des répercussions majeures sur les courants d'échanges internationaux de viandes. De plus, l'appétit croissant des chinois pour les produits laitiers joue un rôle central dans le développement des marchés laitiers internationaux, au bénéfice des zones exportatrices dont l'Union européenne et les Etats-Unis.
    Keywords: Agricultural economy,Animal sector,EU,USA,China,Covid-19,Economie agricole,Filières animales,UE,Etats-Unis,Chine
    Date: 2021–12–09
  16. By: Arun Advani (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Warwick); Felix Koenig (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Carnegie Mellon University); Lorenzo Pessina (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia University, New York); Andy Summers (Institute for Fiscal Studies and London School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the contribution of migrants to the rise in UK top incomes. Using administrative data on the universe of UK taxpayers we show migrants are over-represented at the top of the income distribution, with migrants twice as prevalent in the top 0.1% as anywhere in the bottom 97%. These high incomes are predominantly from labour, rather than capital, and migrants are concentrated in only a handful of industries, predominately finance. Almost all (85%) of the growth in the UK top 1% income share over the past 20 years can be attributed to migration.
    Date: 2020–09–21
  17. By: Glauber, Joseph W.; Laborde Debucquet, David; Piñeiro, Valeria
    Abstract: The upcoming WTO Ministerial in November 2021 will once again provide WTO Members with an opportunity to address and reform agricultural domestic support. As pointed out in the Draft Chair Text on Agriculture of 29 July 2021, the Domestic Support pillar has been at the heart of the agricultural negotiations since their commencement in 2000, and, to date, has proven to be a challenging area to achieve consensus on how best to further reforms in that area. This paper examines three broad questions: First, what would be the effect on agricultural trade if Members were to fully utilize domestic support entitlements under the current Agreement on Agriculture. To study the role of existing policy space inherited from the Uruguay Round, we examine the impact of full utilization of domestic support entitlements on agricultural markets. Under the scenario, trade-distorting support would increase to USD 1.3 trillion, 5.5 times the level under the baseline scenario (USD 246 billion). Assuming full use of policy space, global agricultural production is projected to increase by 6 percent and global prices will drop by 8 percent, with all agricultural product prices showing declines. While farm income rises, a greater share of farm income comes from taxpayer resources, and the efficiency of additional transfers (ratio between increase in farmer income and taxpayer cost) is about 60 percent. The second objective of the paper is to discuss and analyze new disciplines that would further the re-forms accomplished under the Agreement on Agriculture by harmonizing support levels across Members and providing additional constraints to prevent Members from undermining these disciplines by concentrating support in a few commodities. The paper examines how these disciplines would affect production, prices, trade and farm sector income compared to a business-as-usual baseline. We find that using an overall concept of Overall Trade Distorting Support including all forms of trade-distorting measures, associated with amber and blue boxes, will have very negligible impacts on applied policies by 2030 and small effects on the agricultural markets overall. Extending this discipline to measures currently notified under Art. 6.2., the development box, will not put significant constraints on developing countries. Moving to this simplified and more transparent framework will require to define properly an anti-concentration clause, limiting the amount of payments that can benefit the producers of a specific commodity. Such feature will be quite important for sensitive commodities like cotton. Lastly, the paper examines how the proposed disciplines would affect agricultural markets under the alternative baseline that assumes that Members will utilize full entitlements under the current AoA. De-pending on the discipline scenarios, the potential subsidies increase will be reduced by USD 240 billion to USD 800 billion.
    Keywords: models; computable general equilibrium models; trade; WTO; agricultural trade; MIRAGRODEP; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Max Marczinek; Stephan Maurer; Ferdinand Rauch
    Abstract: How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21,590 city-level trade flows over 190 years, covering 1,425 cities. We use the Sound Toll data, a dataset collected by the Danish crown until 1857 that registered every ship entering or leaving the Baltic Sea, forming one of the most granular and extensive trade data sets. We measure trade flows by counting the number of ships sailing on a particular route in a given year and estimate gravity equations using PPML and an appropriate set of fixed effects. Bilateral gravity estimation results show that trade among former Hansa cities only shows persistence after its dissolution in 1669 for about 30 years, but this persistence is not robust across different regression specifications. However, when we incorporate the flag under which a ship is sailing and consider trilateral trade (where an observation is a combination of origin, destination, and flag), we find that trade persistently exceeds the gravity benchmark: Hansa cities continued to trade more with each other, but only on ships that were owned in another former Hansa city and thus sailed under a Hansa flag. Similar effects are found for trade among former Hansa cities and their trading posts abroad, yet again only conditional on the ship sailing under a former Hanseatic flag. Trade flows among the same pair of origin and destination cities, but under a different flag, do not show this persistence. Our main result shows that the identity of traders persists longer and more strongly than other forms of trading relationships we can measure. Apart from these new quantitative and qualitative insights on the persistence of trade flows, our paper is also of historic interest, as it provides new and detailed information on the speed of decline of trade amongst members of the Hanseatic League.
    Date: 2022–01–26
  19. By: Guillaume Daudin (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jérôme Héricourt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lise Patureau (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: International transport costs do have an additive part. How large is it? Does it matter?This paper provides new answers to these questions. Using information contained in the US imports flows from 1974 to 2019, we develop an empirical model that disentangles the ad-valorem and the additive components of international transport costs. The per-unit component of transport costs rep-resents a sizeable share of total transport costs, between 30% and 45% depending on the year and the transport mode considered. We then investigate the important consequences of additive costs, under two different perspectives. First, modelling varying additive costs modifies the decomposition of transport costs time trend between the reduction in "pure" transport costs and trade composition effects, the latter playing a minor role. Second, we revisit the welfare gains of the transport costreduction in presence of additive costs. In this regard, we shed light on the welfare variations in-duced by the international trade acceleration and the "hyper-globalization", as well as the key role of additive transport costs in determining those welfare variations. Neglecting the additive component substantially underestimates the welfare gains of the transport cost decrease.
    Abstract: Les coûts du transport international ont une part additive. Quelle est l'ampleur de cette dernière ? Est-ce important pour l'analyse économique ? Cet article apporte de nouvelles réponses à ces questions. A cet effet, nous développons une méthodologie empirique permettant de distinguer précisément les composantes multiplicative et additive des coûts de transport internationaux, que nous appliquons sur des données exhaustives d'importations pour les États-Unis sur la période 1974-2019. L'analyse révèle que la composante additive représente une partie significative des coûts de transport totaux, comprise entre 30 et 45% selon l'année et le mode de transport considéré. Dans un second temps, nous évaluons les conséquences pour l'analyse économique de cette importance des coûts additifs, sous deux angles différents. Tout d'abord, la modélisation de coûts additifs variables modifie la décomposition de la tendance temporelle des coûts de transport, entre d'une part la réduction des coûts de transport "purs" et d'autre part les effets de composition du commerce, ces derniers jouant un rôle mineur. Par la suite, nous réévaluons les gains de bien-être produits par la réduction des coûts de transport en présence de coûts additifs. A cet égard, nous mesurons les variations de bien-être induites par l'accélération du commerce international observée à partir des années 1980 et le phénomène d'hyper-mondialisation, ainsi que le rôle-clé des coûts de transport additifs dans la détermination de ces variations de bien-être. Nous montrons ainsi que négliger la composante additive des coûts de transport conduit à sous-estimer considérablement les gains de bien-être produits par la décrue de ces coûts.
    Keywords: Transport costs estimates,non-linear econometrics,period 1974-2019,additive costs,trade composition effects,gains from trade,coûts de transport,économétrie non linéaire,période 1974-2019,coûts additifs,effets decomposition du commerce,gains au commerce
    Date: 2022–01–21
  20. By: João Tovar Jalles; Georgios Karras
    Abstract: Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses.
    Keywords: pandemics; current account; local projection; panel data; recessions; nonlinearities
    JEL: C33 E32 F14 F40 I15
    Date: 2022–02
  21. By: Dimitrios Tsiotas (Agricultural University of Athens); César Ducruet (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper examines how spatial distance affects network topology on empirical data concerning the Global Container Shipping Network (GCSN). The GCSN decomposes into 32 multiplex layers, defined at several spatial levels, by successively removing connections of smaller distances. This multilayer decomposition approach allows studying the topological properties of each layer as a function of distance. The analysis provides insights into the hierarchical structure and (importing and exporting) trade functionality of the GCSN, hub connectivity, several topological aspects, and the distinct role of China in the network's structure. It also shows that bidirectional links decrease with distance, highlighting the importance of asymmetric functionality in carriers' operations. It further configures six novel clusters of ports concerning their spatial coverage. Finally, it reveals three levels of geographical scale in the structure of GCSN (where the network topology significantly changes): the neighborhood (local connectivity); the scale of international connectivity (mesoscale or middle connectivity); and the intercontinental market (large scale connectivity). The overall approach provides a methodological framework for analyzing network topology as a function of distance, highlights the spatial dimension in complex and multilayer networks, and provides insights into the spatial structure of the GCSN, which is the most important market of the global maritime economy.
    Date: 2021–10–28
  22. By: Liu, Weilin (Institute of Economic and Social Development, Nankai University); Cheng, Qian (Institute of Economic and Social Development, Nankai University); Sickles, Robin C. (Rice University,)
    Abstract: The development of production networks has promoted knowledge flows and technology diffusion among industries over the past decades, which affects the productivity growth for most countries. This paper examines productivity growth in the presence of inter-sectoral linkages. We construct a spatial production model with technological spillovers and productivity growth heterogeneity at the industry-level. We use the global value chain (GVC) linkages from inter-country input-output tables to model the technological interdependence among industries, and estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) growth and spillover for the European countries. We find that the spillover effects from intermediate inputs is significant. There is a network effect of TFP growth from one country to another through input-output linkages. Our paper provides a better understanding of the impact of spillover effects on TFP growth in the context of GVCs.
    JEL: C23 C67 O47
    Date: 2022–01
  23. By: Bunyada Laoprapassorn
    Abstract: How does the market power along the agricultural value chains mediate the effects of policies on the welfare of farmers? Using microdata on farmers and rice mills in Thailand, I document heterogeneity in the spatial density of rice mills. I further provide reduced-form evidence that a one standard deviation increase in local competition among rice mills leads to a 7.7% increase in farmer prices. Informed by the empirical findings, I propose and estimate a quantitative spatial model that accounts for the market power and entry-location choices of intermediaries. I then simulate two policy counterfactuals. I find that gains to farmers from a country-wide improvement in road infrastructure are regressive; the percentage increase in income of the top decile farmers is on average 11% larger than that of the bottom decile. Changes in the entry decisions of the rice mills further exacerbate the regressive effect, more than doubling the gap between the percentage change in income of the top and bottom decile farmers. The second counterfactual simulation shows that the market power of intermediaries could lead to a lower than socially optimal level of technology adoption among farmers.
    Keywords: Intermediaries; Spatial Competition; Trade costs
    JEL: D43 F12 L13 O13
    Date: 2022–01
  24. By: Chort, Isabelle; de la Rupelle, Maëlys
    Abstract: While there is a growing literature on the impact of climate and weather-related events on migration, little is known about the mitigating effect of different policies directed to the agricultural sector, or aimed at insuring against environmental disasters. This paper uses state-level data on migration ows between Mexico and the U.S. from 1999 to 2012 to investigate the mitigating impact of an agricultural cashtransfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden) on the migration response to weather shocks. We find that Fonden decreases migration in response to heavy rainfall, hurricanes and droughts. Increases in PROCAMPO amounts paid to small producers are found to play a more ambiguous role on the migration response to shocks. Changes in the distribution of PROCAMPO favoring more vulnerable producers in the non irrigated ejido sector however seem to mitigate the impact of droughts on migration.
    Keywords: International migration,Weather shocks,Public policies,Weather variability,Natural disasters,Mexico-U.S. migration,Inequality
    JEL: F22 Q54 Q18 J61
    Date: 2022
  25. By: Victor Ginsburgh (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium and CORE, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium); Juan D. Moreno-Ternero (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: The EU spends more than one billion euros per year ensuring translation and interpretation of 24 languages to preserve multilingualism. We examine how this budget should be fairly allocated, taking into account linguistic and economic realities of each member country. Our analysis tries to estimate the value of keeping English as a procedural language (in fact, almost a lingua franca) in the post-Brexit EU, where, today, just about one percent of the population speaks it as native language.
    Keywords: Multilingualism; European Union; Brexit; budget sharing; disenfranchisement
    JEL: D63 Z13
    Date: 2022
  26. By: Semken, Christoph; Hay, Colin
    Abstract: HM Treasury's estimation of the economic consequences of Brexit - using standard macroeconomic models - during the EU referendum campaign represents a remarkable intervention in a highly politicized public debate. It raises a series of questions about the use of economic expertise. Through a detailed theoretical and empirical critique of the Treasury's methodology - and a reassessment of the likely effects of Brexit in light of this - we cast doubt on the utility of their approach, highlighting methodological issues, unrealistic assumptions, and misrepresentations of established facts. In the process we seek to identify some of the wider implications for the use and potential abuse of economic expertise in highly charged political contexts, such as the EU referendum debate.
    Keywords: Brexit,DSGE model,economic consequences,economic expertise,gravity model,HM Treasury,methodology
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Tian Xiong (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by Chinese multinational firm in the EU28 on the subsequent innovation performance of acquiring firms with different technological intensities and types of corporate ownership The study does so by applying the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial estimation to analyze novel longitudinal firm-level data covering the period from 2010 to 2018. The empirical evidence suggests that Chinese acquiring firms are generally able to enhance their innovation performance after merging or acquiring firms from the EU28 countries. Furthermore, this study reveals that medium low- and low-tech firms significantly improved their innovation performance after undertaking M&As, but the same effect cannot be identified for firms in the high- and medium high-tech groups. Finally, strong evidence confirms the significant increase in innovation output of private-owned enterprises in the post-acquisition era compared with state-owned or -controlled enterprises.
    Keywords: mergers and acquisitions, M&A, innovation performance, emerging market multinationals (EMNEs), learning, China, EU
    JEL: O1 O3 F23
    Date: 2022–01
  28. By: Isabel Ruiz; Carlos Vargas-Silva
    Abstract: How does conflict, displacement, and return shape trust, reconciliation, and community engagement? And what is the relative impact of exposure to violence on these indicators? In this paper we explore these questions by focusing on the legacies of armed conflict and the differences between those who stayed in their communities of origin during the conflict (stayees) and those who were displaced internally and internationally and who returned home over time (returnees).
    Keywords: Trust, Conflict, Forced migration
    Date: 2022
  29. By: Ben Youssef, Slim
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between military spending (MS) and oil imports (OIM) in China. For this purpose, we use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the non-linear ARDL approaches, with annual data ranging from 1989 to 2016. In the long-run, MS increases OIM, renewable energy (RE) consumption, and gross domestic product (GDP). RE consumption increases arms exports (AE) and GDP but reduces OIM. Interestingly, OIM reduces AE and AE harm GDP. OIM seem to have a non-linear and asymmetric impact on MS both in the short- and long-run. In the long-run, an increase in OIM by 1% increases MS by 0.853%, while a reduction of OIM by 1% reduces MS by 1.467%. The cumulative dynamic multiplier effects indicate that China reacts very rapidly to positive shocks, but is very cautious about reducing its MS in the event of a negative shock. It appears that China is prompt to reduce considerably its MS whenever it is assured about its energy security. This could be partially achieved by increasing its RE consumption, and the military sector is invited to contribute especially through its R&D activities. This could lead to a cleaner environment and a more peaceful world.
    Keywords: Renewable energy; oil imports; arms exports; military spending; non-linear and linear autoregressive distributed lag; China.
    JEL: C32 H56 O53 Q42
    Date: 2021–07–01
  30. By: Sanz, Leandro (Ohio State University)
    Abstract: Insider trading during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique opportunity to study how corporate insiders benefit from information flows in their network of business contacts. I find that insiders at firms with activities in China sell more shares of their companies than other insiders and do so earlier. Consistent with an information channel, I show that firms with supply-chain relationships and subsidiaries in China, more local assets and employees, and insiders overseeing global operations drive these effects. Insiders' private information seems to have been forward-looking, which allowed them to avoid significant losses during the period.
    JEL: D83 D85 F23 G14
    Date: 2021–12
  31. By: Katrin Millock (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cees Withagen (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])
    Abstract: We review some of the recent estimates of the effect of weather and climate on migration, and articles examining the historical evidence of such links. We identify four issues that have received less attention in previous reviews on the topic. The first one is general equilibrium effects of climate change and migration. The second one concerns accounting for thresholds in the climate-migration relationship. Some of the articles that we review incorporate non-linear effects, but only in the relation between income and migration, and in the relation between weather, climate and migration. Other thresholds are not yet incorporated into the literature. A third issue where much work remains to be done relates to climate change and conflict, and their influence on migration. Finally, we conclude with some reflections on the implications of the results for economic development.
    Date: 2021–12–28
  32. By: McLain, Rebecca
    Abstract: Tenure insecurity has a variety of negative consequences for natural resource management, agricultural productivity, and poverty reduction, but the sources of tenure insecurity differ for men and women, and for individual, household, and collective lands. Research supported through PIM has helped advance policy reforms that improve access to, and tenure security of, land and natural resources and has supported more equitable and sustainable use of resources in less developed regions. Statutory recognition of customary rights, multistakeholder processes such as for land use planning, and organized social alliances such as Indigenous Peoples’ groups have emerged as important mechanisms for securing rights or enhancing access to collectively held lands. Long-term partnerships, ongoing engagement, and training for multiple actors at multiple scales increases the likelihood of successful implementation of tenure reforms. Further research on tenure security can contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially by clarifying how customary tenure can provide security and how tenure affects decision-making in multistakeholder platforms.
    Keywords: WORLD; tenure; research; tenure security; policies; reforms; Sustainable Development Goals
    Date: 2021

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