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on International Trade |
| By: | Andrea Andrenelli; Javier López González |
| Abstract: | 3D printing technologies have attracted the attention of the trade policy community for their potential to disrupt international trade. It is argued that greater cross-border exchange in design files for local printing may lead to less trade in physical goods. New evidence presented in this paper suggests quite the opposite: that the adoption of 3D printing technologies, proxied by measures of imports of 3D printers, appears to be complementary to goods trade. On average, an increase of around USD 14 000 in imports of 3D printers is associated with a USD 3.3 million increase in the value of exports of 3D printable goods. Similar dynamics are found for imports of 3D printable goods. Overall, this implies that the wider adoption of the technology has, at present, limited implications for the ongoing debate on the renewal of the WTO Moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions as it is unlikely to result in loss of goods trade and traditional tariff revenue. |
| Keywords: | 3D printable goods, Additive manufacturing, Digital trade, Electronic transmissions, System GMM, WTO Moratorium |
| JEL: | F13 F14 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:256-en&r= |
| By: | David Kohn; Fernando Leibovici; Michal Szkup |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent studies on the impact of financial frictions on international trade. We first present evidence on the relation between measures of access to external finance and export decisions. We then present an analytical framework to analyze the impact of financial frictions on firms' export decisions. Finally, we review recent applications of this framework to investigate the impact of financial frictions on international trade dynamics across firms, industries, and in the aggregate. We discuss related empirical, theoretical, and quantitative studies throughout. |
| Keywords: | financial frictions; international trade; credit constraints; export decisions |
| JEL: | F1 F4 |
| Date: | 2021–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93275&r= |
| By: | Ana Catarina Pimenta; Carlos Melo Gouveia; João Amador |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemics and the lockdowns imposed to mitigate the rise of infections beyond manageable levels strongly affected international trade in the early months of 2020. Although the health crisis and the mobility restrictions associated to lockdowns are closely related, their impacts on international trade have a different nature. This paper uses monthly firm-level trade data for Portuguese firms to measure the impact of lockdowns on nominal export and import flows during 2020 and the first half of 2021, while also assessing the impact of the health crisis. The high time frequency and granularity of the data contribute to the identification of the impact of these obstacles on trade. We conclude that the detrimental impact of lockdowns is sizeable and broadly similar in exports and imports, and the impact of the health conditions is slightly stronger in exports. There is evidence of a lower impact of lockdowns as of June 2020, hinting at a progressive adaptation of international traders to the prevailing circumstances. Notwithstanding this adaptation, the impact of lockdowns partly remerged in the third wave of the pandemics, notably on imports flows. There is also evidence that the impact of lockdowns was stronger for larger firms and for those more integrated in global value chains. |
| JEL: | C23 F14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202114&r= |
| By: | Evdokia Moïsé; Stela Rubínová |
| Abstract: | Trade negotiations are frequently accompanied by sustainability impact assessment (SIA) to evaluate the potential economic, environmental, social and human rights effects of a possible agreement. SIAs can help promote environmental protection, and support the better integration of women, vulnerable populations, and small businesses into the global economy, as well as address growing concerns from civil society. They provide a critical opportunity for dialogue among stakeholders and trade policy makers, and thereby help to rebuild confidence in the trading system. However, SIA approaches ‒ including economic modelling, qualitative causal chain analysis and stakeholder consultations ‒ each have their strengths, challenges and limitations. Those need to be understood by policy makers if reliable and policy relevant conclusions are to be provided. This paper offers a perspective on the challenges and opportunities of various approaches and discusses best practices for assessing the sustainability impact of trade and trade agreements. |
| Keywords: | CGE models, Qualitative methods, Stakeholder dialogue, Sustainable growth, Trade liberalisation |
| JEL: | A13 B41 F6 F13 F18 |
| Date: | 2021–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:255-en&r= |
| By: | Yevgeniya Shevtsova (European Commission - JRC); Jorge Diaz-Lanchas (Universidad Pontifica Comillas); Damiaan Persyn (University of Göttingen); Giovanni Mandras (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a structural gravity model to explore the regional trade and welfare impact of the EU Cohesion Policy Transport Infrastructure Investment programme estimated using a novel dataset of the Generalised Transport Costs for the EU regions at the NUTS2 level. The results indicate that on average additional investment in transport infrastructure can increase NUTS2 total regional exports by 0.40% and regional real GDP 1.13%. Central and Eastern European Regions enjoy the highest exports and GDP gains, while few Western European regions experience a negligible decrease in wages, which may occur as a result of factor price convergence. |
| Keywords: | structural gravity, trade policy, general equilibrium analysis. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 R13 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202107&r= |
| By: | Arturo Chang (University of Toronto); Thomas Ferguson (Institute for New Economic Thinking); Jacob Rothschild (Reality Check); Benjamin I. Page (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | Spontaneous, open-ended survey responses can sometimes better reveal what is actually on people`s minds than small sets of forced-choice, closed questions. Our analysis of closed questions and trade-related open-ended responses to 2016 ANES `likes` and `dislikes` prompts indicate that Americans held considerably more complex, more ambivalent, and – in many cases – more negative views of international trade than has been apparent in studies that focus only on closed-ended responses. This paper suggests that contrast between open- and closed-question data may help explain why the effectiveness of Donald Trump`s appeals to trade resentments surprised many observers. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade; Public Opinion; international trade; Donald Trump; opinion surveys, political economy. |
| JEL: | C83 F10 F13 F59 F68 |
| Date: | 2021–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp162&r= |
| By: | Maria Inês Castro; Maria Paula Fontoura |
| Abstract: | This study discusses the importance of hub airports’ air connectivity in improving the economic performance of the European Union countries during the period of 2008-2019. For this purpose, we use two different measurements of air connectivity - airport and hub connectivity, which are calculated using the Nestcan Model, and then, as a first step, we analyse the degree of linear association of each one of them with gross domestic product (GDP) and with a set of economic variables (hereafter designated as EVs) which, according to the literature, are expected to be positively determined by air connectivity and will boost a country´s economic performance, namely: inflows and outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), imports, exports, and international tourism expenditures. We conclude that the type of air connectivity adopted matters. The results show that hub connectivity has a higher correlation with key variables for economic growth and is increasingly correlated with GDP during the period analysed, while a downward tendency over the more recent years was observed with regards airport connectivity. Next, we test the strength and direction of the quantitative relationship between hub connectivity and GDP/each EV for a sample of EU countries with a hub connectivity level of at least 5% of the TOP hub-connected EU country (Germany). Finally, we extract conclusions for individual countries, with the help of the scatter diagrams and regression lines. The results provide policy guidance regarding the role of hub connectivity in increasing the economic performance of a country, especially for those countries that are highly dependent on FDI, trade, and tourism for economic growth, as we illustrate for the case of Portugal. |
| Keywords: | air connectivity; airport connectivity; hub connectivity; foreign direct investment; international trade; tourism; Netscan Model; European Union; Portugal. |
| JEL: | E69 F20 L93 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02002021&r= |
| By: | Hong, Sungwoo (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Yoon, Yeo Joon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jino (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Rim, Jeewoon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Nam, Jimin (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Korea) |
| Abstract: | The conflict between the United States and China may be the issue of most importance as well as interest to the world, prior to COVID-19. This conflict between the two countries is appearing not only in the economic sector, but also in various field such as politics, diplomacy, and military affairs. Such competition between the two countries is likely to escalate further as multilateral systems such as the WTO are threatened and protectionism intensifies in the post-COVID-19 world. Even within Latin America, the competition between the two countries frequently appears in a variety of forms. Conflicts between the United States and China in Latin America tend to occur mainly in the infrastructure sectors. Furthermore, the United States pressured Latin American countries to choose between the United States and China, with the results of this pressure depending on the political orientation of the ruling government. In order to investigate the impact of retaliatory tariffs between the two countries on Latin American countries’ exports and welfare, we employ an event analysis for exports and computational general equilibrium (CGE) model for welfare, with Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile as the subject of our analysis. Based on the outcome of the event study, Brazil’s exports to the United States moderately increased due to the tariff imposition, and such an effect persisted for short term. Its exports to China rose considerably immediately after the tariff imposition, and then the impact tended to decrease over time. By contrast, it is difficult to conclude that the tariff imposition had a statistically significant and lasting effect on the exports of the remaining three countries to the United States and China. As a result of the analysis using the CGE model, meanwhile, the tariffs imposed between the United States and China trivially increased the welfare of Latin American countries. |
| Keywords: | US-China; Latin America; rivalry; conflict |
| Date: | 2021–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2021_004&r= |
| By: | Luca Fontanelli; Mattia Guerini; Mauro Napoletano (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | We build a simple dynamic model to study the effects of technological learning, market selection and international competition in the determination of export flows and market shares. The model features two countries populated by firms with heterogeneous productivity levels and sales. Market selection in each country is driven by a finite pairwise Pólya urn process. We show that market selection leads either to a national or to an international monopoly in presence of a static distribution of firm productivity levels. We then incorporate firm learning and entry-exit in the model and we show that the market structure does not converge to a monopoly. In addition, we show that the extended model is able to jointly reproduce a wide ensemble of stylized facts concerning intra-industry trade, industry and firm dynamics. |
| Keywords: | international trade,industrial dynamics,firm dynamics,market selection,Pólya urn |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03370650&r= |
| By: | Ludovic Panon (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new determinant of labor share changes. Using micro-data on the universe of French manufacturing exporters over 1995-2007, I show that a measure of export demand growth exogenous to firm- level outcomes drives down the manufacturing labor share through two effects. First, foreign demand shocks allow low-labor share, highly internationalized "superstar" exporters to grow disproportionately more. Second, foreign demand growth decreases the labor share of exporters and this effect is stronger for larger exporters. Both effects explain 12% of the labor share decline over 1995-2000 and led to a 1.2 percentage point drop over 2000-2007. A simple model of endogenous competition with heterogeneous firms rationalizes the findings. A market size increase allows exporters to expand, which decreases their share of fixed labor cost in value-added, and increases competition on international markets. Fiercer competition favors superstar exporters, further decreasing their labor share through the fixed cost channel. Overall, these findings provide direct causal evidence of a "winner take most" phenomenon induced by trade globalization. |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03386549&r= |
| By: | Shaopeng Huang (Research Institute for Global Value Chains, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China); Jai Asundi (Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), Bengaluru, India); Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | The rise of the software service industry has been the most impressive achievements of the Indian economy in the last few decades. The success story of Indian software service industry is essentially a story of plugging into the GVC by taking up part of the mostly labour-intensive, low value-added tasks outsourced /offshored by lead firms from the developed country. With a view to expand our understanding of GVCs beyond manufacturing, we analyse in this paper the software services industry in India in the context of GVCs. By examining the organization of software value chains, the endowment profile and sources of comparative advantage of India, the relations between foreign (lead) firms and indigenous firm, and the role of Indian governments, this paper try to pin down India’s particular position in the global value chains and its upgrading status, and to demonstrate the structural barriers and future challenges if Indian firms are to upgrade further their positon in the GVC. |
| Keywords: | GVCs, software; Indian software industry, upgrading |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:21-04&r= |
| By: | Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | I study the short- and long-term effects of regional trade agreements (RTA) with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions. An empirical analysis using gravity methods suggests that regions signing these agreements share more technology in the form of technology licensing following the year of enforcement. I set up a multi-country model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption to quantify the effect of such agreements on innovation, growth and welfare. Adopters pay royalties to innovators for the use of their technology; the model allows for various degrees of IP rights enforcement ranging from pure imitation to perfect enforcement of IP rights. An improvement of IP protection in exchange for market access increases welfare, growth and innovation in the world. Developed countries benefit from a higher return to innovation and a lower home trade share, accruing welfare gains both in the short and long term. Developing countries are impacted through three channels: (i) internal IP reforms increase the return to domestic innovators, (ii) lower trade costs increase profits from exports, and (ii) higher royalty payments reduce the return to adopters. A counterfactual exercise shows that while the first two forces dominate in the long run, there are short-term losses from a lower return to adoption. |
| Keywords: | Technology Licensing; Regional Trade Agreements; Intellectual Property Rights |
| JEL: | F12 O33 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2021–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:93276&r= |
| By: | Park, Ji Hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 이 보고서에서는 국경간 전자조달의 최근 논의를 검토하고 관련 통계를 분석하였다. 또한 세계 각국의 전자조달 활용 현황과 주요국의 전자조달제도를 살펴본 후, 국제 무역협정의 전자조달 규범에 관한 비교분석을 토대로 정책 시사점을 제시하였다. This report analyzes statistics on cross-border e-procurement, examines the use of e-procurement and e-procurement systems in the USA, the EU, and Korea, and comparatively analyzes e-procurement norms in international trade agreements to identify implications. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | U.S; EU; Korea; cross-border; e-Procurement; digital transformation; trade agreement |
| Date: | 2021–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:2021_002&r= |
| By: | Hadrien Camatte; Guillaume Daudin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Violaine Faubert; Antoine Lalliard; Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Following the 2008 financial crisis, inflation rates in advanced economies have been at odds with the prediction of a standard Phillips curve. This puzzle has triggered a debate on the global determinants of domestic prices. We contribute to this debate by investigating the impact of exchange rate shocks on consumer prices from 1995 to 2018. We focus on cost-push inflation through global value chains. We build on three sectoral world input-output datasets (WIOD and two versions of TiVA). We assume a Cobb-Douglas production framework and work in a partial equilibrium setting. The construction of World Input-Output tables is data-demanding and WIOTs are typically released with a lag of several years. To address this gap, we use more up-to-date GDP and trade data, thus providing a tool for approximating the partial equilibrium impact of an exchange rate shock on consumer prices from 2015 onwards. Depending on countries, the absolute value of the elasticity of the household consumption expenditure (HCE) deflator to the exchange rate ranges from 0.05 to 0.35, confirming the importance of global value chains in channelling external shocks to domestic inflation. Using data from WIOD on a sample of 43 countries, we find that the mean output-weighted elasticity of the HCE deflator to the exchange rate increased in absolute value from 0.075 in 2000 to 0.094 in 2008. After peaking in 2008, it declined to 0.088 in 2014. Extrapolations based on more up-to-date GDP and trade data suggest that the decline continued until 2016, before reversing in 2017 and 2018. Our findings are robust to using three different datasets. |
| Keywords: | input-output linkages,spillovers,global value chains,cost-push inflation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03374355&r= |
| By: | Jean-Charles Bricongne; Antoine Cosson; Albane Garnier-Sauveplane; Rémy Lecat; Irena Peresa; Yuliya Vanzhulova |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact on financial flows of institutional factors promoting financial integration such as European integration or trying to tame them such as capital control or macro-prudential policies. We use a detailed database of bilateral financial assets and construct gravity models, for foreign direct investment, portfolio flows and other investments. Capital control policies have limited and disparate effects, being particularly effective through restrictions on inward flows for destination countries. The impacts of macro-prudential measures are complex, with macro-prudential measures in the origin country financial sector having a positive impact on outward capital flows and macroprudential measures in destination countries having a negative impact on inward capital flows. European integration has played a positive role on financial flows. We also emphasize the benefits of cooperation between the origin and destination countries, both for capital control and macro-prudential measures. |
| Keywords: | Gravity Equation, International Financial Assets and Flows, Macro-Prudential Measures, Restrictions to Financial Flows, European Integration |
| JEL: | F38 G15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:842&r= |
| By: | Vanessa Alviarez (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - UBC - University of British Columbia); Keith Head (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - UBC - University of British Columbia); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4–7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU. |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03389199&r= |
| By: | Matteo Gaddi (Fondazione Claudio Sabattini); Nadia Garbellini (Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the main transformations that are affecting European automotive industry and which challenges, in particular due to the transition to new forms of propulsion, the industry is going to face. The automotive industry is central to the European economy and the nature of the Global Value Chains are rapidly shifting. While individual countries have developed economic plans to address this, a broader EU wide plan is critically important to addressing the employment and environmental effects of these shifts. |
| Keywords: | Automotive Industry, Global Value Chains, European Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | L23 L24 L52 L62 L9 L98 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp160&r= |
| By: | Hong, T. |
| Abstract: | Newspaper coverage-based uncertainty measures are made popular by Baker et al. (2016), who created the Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) index by analyzing appearances of uncertainty-, economy-, policy- and trade-related search terms. This paper shows their set of search terms leads to systematic inaccuracies such as misclassification and omission of articles. I then construct an improved U.S. TPU index by expanding and modifying the set of search terms, and restricting attention to national newspapers. The new set of search terms uncovers 31 times more articles, and the individual newspaper-level series that aggregate up to the new TPU index are more highly correlated, hence agreeing more with each other about the movements of U.S. trade policy uncertainty. I also provide a detailed mapping between major U.S. trade policy events and the new U.S. TPU index, and shows that Baker et al. (2016)'s U.S. TPU index sometimes mistakes financial market and political uncertainty for trade policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy uncertainty, textual analysis, uncertainty shocks |
| JEL: | D80 E66 F1 |
| Date: | 2021–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2174&r= |
| By: | Stéphane Auray; Aurélien Eyquem (UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2) |
| Abstract: | We introduce heterogeneous mark-ups through Bertrand competition in a two-country model with endogenous firms' entry and tradability `a la Ghironi and Melitz (2005). Bertrand competition generates a distribution of mark-ups according to which firms that are larger and more productive charge lower prices, attract larger market shares and extract larger mark-ups. First, we characterize first-best allocations and their implementation. We find that they are inde- pendent from the degree of mark-ups' heterogeneity, suppress the dispersion of mark-ups and imply zero distortions on labor as well as substantial subsidies to preserve firm's incentives to enter. Second, second-best alternative policies with a restricted number of instruments and a balanced budget significantly reduce the potential welfare gains from fiscal policies. Third, the total welfare losses from passive policies are lower under heterogeneous mark-ups than under homogeneous mark-ups: while the dispersion of mark-ups has negative effects on the intensive margin, output per firm, it also raises expected profits for potential entrants and raises the ex- tensive margin, the number of firms in both domestic and export markets, pushing them closer to their efficient levels. Fourth, we also investigate the dynamic properties of allocations under passive and optimal policies considering aggregate productivity shocks and trade liberalization experiments. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous firms,endogenous entry,open economy,strategic pricing,optimal taxation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03373701&r= |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop an approach towards incorporation of nutritional accounts for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base. We rely on the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) food balance sheets data and nutritive indicators to estimate nutritional content of primary commodities and derived commodities represented in primary equivalent within the food balance sheets. Calories, fats, proteins and carbohydrates are estimated and reported. We further identify use categories that account for food, feed, seed, losses and other uses. In terms of food supply, we identify GTAP Data Base primary commodity sectors, food processing sectors and service sectors that supply food. To redistribute nutritional data according to GTAP Data Base sectors, we calculate Leontief inverses, operating only over those sectors (and uses) that supply food. Trade in both primary and processed commodities is taken into account. The approach is applied to all four GTAP 10 Data Base reference years and can be replicated in a dynamic modelling framework for each simulated year (time step). |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:6458&r= |
| By: | Joseph-Simon Görlach (Joseph-Simon Görlach) |
| Abstract: | As wages in migrant sending countries catch up with those in destinations, migrants adjust on several margins, including their duration of stay, the number of migrations they undertake, as well as the amount saved while abroad. This paper combines Mexican and U.S. data to estimate a dynamic model of consumption, emigration and re-migration, accounting for financial constraints. An increase in Mexican household earnings shortens migration duration, but raises the number of trips per migrant. For lower-income migrants, a rise in Mexican wages leads to a more than proportional effect on consumption expenditure in Mexico, arising from repatriated savings. |
| Keywords: | migration duration, repeat migration, borrowing constraints |
| JEL: | J61 D15 F22 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2129&r= |
| By: | Rimvie Enoc Kabore (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between public capital and manufacturing export performance. It also aims at investigating whether this relationship depends on the proximity of a country's technology frontier. To achieve this, we adopted a methodology that estimates the elasticities of public capital as a non-rival factor in a model that considers factor intensity as a mechanism of industrial development. We use an interaction model with panel data from 1999 to 2014 across 35 advanced and less advanced countries. Our results show that in countries far from the technology frontier, public capital accumulation is an element of industrial development as opposed to countries close to the technology frontier. The elasticity of public capital becomes more important in magnitude, particularly for African countries. |
| Keywords: | proximity to the technological frontier,Public infrastructure,Comparative advantage,Manufacturing exports |
| Date: | 2021–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03359665&r= |
| By: | Gregg, Amanda; Ruderman, Anne |
| Abstract: | The French slave ship the Bonne Société traded bundles of goods in exchange for slaves in the port of Loango in the late eighteenth century. This paper presents detailed evidence from the ship’s trading log that decomposes the goods in the bundle and, uniquely, identifies the European and African merchants who sold captives to the boat. We examine the cross-cultural trade documented by this dataset and show that total prices increased throughout the trade, since the ship faced time pressure as soon as the first captive was aboard, and that the captain increased the price of the bundle by adding more goods and especially by adding high-price goods. We also show that sellers participated both as one-shot traders and as repeat traders, selling the ship captives at multiple points in the trade, and that sellers with honorifics indicating status positions did not appear to earn greater prices as observed in the trading log. The market we observe was neither purely based on barter nor based on goods as substitutes for currency. Our results thus add a nuanced picture of how a trade that destroyed the lives of millions of people worked “on the ground.” |
| Keywords: | slave trade; markets; Atlantic world; West Central Africa |
| JEL: | N77 N87 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:112507&r= |
| By: | David Grover (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management); Swaroop Rao (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management, IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides for the creation of a successor to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the parameters of which are currently being operationalised. This paper uses the broad literature on the relationship between general foreign direct investment (FDI) and inequality in FDI host countries to develop expectations about the likely impact of past and future international mitigation investment on inequality, unemployment and poverty outcomes. Using 2000 and 2010 census data for small geographic areas in Brazil, we compare the change in those outcomes in areas that experienced CDM project activity to the same in areas that did not, using a difference-indifference approach. We find that areas with CDM project activity experienced improvements in those outcomes, which appear to be driven by project types that are associated with 'primary' sector activity. Including measurement and reporting procedures for these broader sustainable development outcomes in the rulebook of a post-2020 agreement could be favourable to the interests of both developed and developing countries. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:gemptp:hal-03404189&r= |
| By: | Sarah Guillou (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | The note presents the computation of industry foreign inputs dependency using input-output tables. It gives details on each level of dependency and finish with the infinite computation using the Leontief inverse matrix. It ends with some evidence by using WIOT data from 2000 to 2014 which shows the high growth of the technical dependency to Chinese inputs over the past 15 years. Construction, Telecommunications and Chemicals are Chinese-dependent sectors among the 20 first which also contribute a lot to the French economy. Nevertheless, for France and European countries, the dependency to Chinese inputs is well behind the dependency to European inputs. |
| Keywords: | Input-output tables,Leontief matrix,Inputs dependency,Chinese inputs |
| Date: | 2020–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03389189&r= |
| By: | Emmanuel Chavez (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Cristobal Dominguez (Comision Nacional Bancaria y de Valores) |
| Abstract: | This research studies the effects of a value added tax (VAT) reform at Mexico's international frontiers. The reform raised the VAT rate from 11 to 16 percent at localities close to the international borders. We use the traditional "static" difference-in-differences methodology as well as dynamic difference-in-differences. The treatment group is composed of municipalities in the area where the VAT increased, and the control group is composed of municipalities close to the treatment group. We nd that the VAT hike had a positive effect on prices of around half the size of the full pass-through conter-factual. In addition, the reform had a negative effect on workers' wages and no effect on employment. The negative e ect on workers' real incomes is not smoothed out with credits. We nd evidence of a negative effect on consumption at Mexico's northern border due to the reform. However, we nd no evidence of an increase in shopping at the United States side of the border. |
| Keywords: | Worker purchasing power,Value Added Tax,Taxation,Border Crossing |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03364026&r= |
| By: | Sébastien Laffitte (CEPS - Centre d'Economie de l'ENS Paris-Saclay - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay - Université Paris-Saclay); Julien Martin (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Mathieu Parenti (ECARES - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics - ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles); Baptiste Souillard (ECARES - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics - ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles); Farid Toubal (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Minimum corporate taxation is the second Pillar of the reforms of international corporate taxation. It is a simple and powerful tool that could curb profit shifting towards low or no tax jurisdictions. Its implementation would allow France to tax the profits that French headquarters have shifted to tax havens, but also to reduce the erosion of its tax base. We estimate the French corporate income tax (CIT) revenues would increase by almost 6 billion euros in the short run after the implementation of an effective minimum tax rate of 15% and by 8 billion euros at a rate of 21%. CIT gains may vary substantially depending on the scope of the tax base, the possibility of headquarters' inversion, and whether it includes domestic corporations or not. CIT gains are relatively higher in France than in Germany or the United States. The expected gains are substantially larger than those to be expected from the implementation of the first Pillar of the reform in its version proposed by the US in April 2021, which opens up rights to tax the 100 largest corporations in the world according to their sales' destination. According to our estimates, Pillar One would bring in about 900 million euros for France. |
| Keywords: | Tax rate,multinational corporation,reform |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03361513&r= |
| By: | Javier Ortega; Gregory Verdugo (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of local immigration inflows on natives' wages using a large French administrative panel from 1976-2007. We show that local immigration inflows are followed by reallocations of blue-collar natives across commuting zones. Because these reallocations vary with the initial occupation and blue-collar location movers have wages below the blue-collar average, controlling for changes in local composition is crucial to assess how wages adjust to immigration. Immigration temporarily lowers the wages of blue-collar workers, with unskilled workers experiencing larger losses. Location movers lose more than stayers in terms of daily wages but move to locations with cheaper housing. |
| Keywords: | immigration,wages,employment,France |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03370661&r= |
| By: | Karaarslan, Can |
| Abstract: | During the year 2015 almost 1.4 million refugees arrived in Europe (eurostat, 2020). Germany was with 1.1 million individuals the major destination (Statista, 2018). A huge political divide occurred over this influx. While welcoming scenes dominated the media in the advent of the so called 'refugee crisis', criticism over the 'We'll-make-it policy' by Angela Merkel increased also among Christian Democrats.1A sudden human influx of such size into a society might not only have political, cultural and social impacts, but may also lead to economic disruptions. Human beings embody consumers as well as labour force. A significant increase in population might thus cause an increase in demand for commodities and in labour supply, which ceteris paribus simultaneously lead to increasing GDP and decreasing wages. Previous literature utilized quasi-natural experiments which can be exploited in social sciences for the detection of causal relations and the usage of methods, not applicable otherwise. The present paper applies the synthetic control methodology to wages, unemployment and economic growth in Germany in order to measure the causal impact of the 2015- refugee influx on these economic key elements. No impact on either of the economic factors has been found. European Union labour market and welfare policies are concerned with the protection of European citizens from disruptive processes. Falling wages and increasing unemployment, as well as decreasing production and consumption embody highly disruptive political potential. Thus, the findings concerning the impact of refugee migration into the European Union might influence EU-policies in the prospect of increased migration to Europe in the upcoming century due climate change and new crises. The remainder of the article is organized as follows: The lessons from the key literature concerning quasi- natural experiments and the impact of migration on wages, unemployment and economic growth are provided in section 2. Section 3 comprises the theoretical framework concerning the differences between refugees and economic migrants. Section 4 introduces the estimation strategy, while section 5 presents data and descriptive statistics. Section 6 shows the simulation results, followed by the concluding discussion in section 7. |
| Keywords: | Economic Impact,Refugee Migration |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ouwpmm:51&r= |
| By: | Kerstin Mitterbacher (Institute of Banking and Finance, University of Graz) |
| Abstract: | The present paper sheds light on the motives of economic migrants---an aspect that has not been discussed at a general level so far. Previous work has only focused on specific fields of interest and used different terminologies, hence impeding comparison and the synthesis of findings across studies. Derived from theoretical, empirical, and analytical research outcomes, the paper concludes that economic migrants’ movements are influenced by the socio-demographic factors of ‘age’ and ‘education’ and are motivated by both the economic motives of ‘expected income’ and ‘employment’ and the economic-related motives of ‘corruption’, ‘amenities’ and ‘happiness’. Furthermore, these motives reveal a typical profile of economic migrants: a typical economic migrant is characterized by being of working age, highly educated and male, and by wishing to migrate to developed countries to achieve a fulfilling life. |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpsses:2021-07&r= |
| By: | Martin, Anne |
| Abstract: | The legacy of colonialism in Northern Ireland has created an ideological divide between Irish nationalism and British unionism through which many questions of political economy are sorted, including questions of conflict, peace and European integration. This paper examines and considers how divergent nationalist discourses surrounding European integration have developed in Northern Ireland throughout history. This divergence can be linked to the fundamentally different and conflicting historical understandings these nationalist projects have of identity, borders and governance. |
| Keywords: | European integration,Northern Ireland,nationalism,borders,discourse |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1712021&r= |
| By: | Jorge Carreto Sangines (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico); Margherita Russo (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy); Annamaria Simonazzi (Sapienza Universita di Roma, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In less than three decades Mexico's automotive industry has gone from a minor role to the 7th largest world producer of automotive vehicles. The Mexican experience is part of the more general case of the ``integrated peripheries.`` The development of these cannot be accounted for separately from the developments occurring in its core country. Unlike the core-periphery literature, however, our analysis emphasizes that the various clusters of cores and integrated peripheries are not alike. In the case under study, the core has been systematically lagging behind the main transformations pioneered by its competitors. The paper traces the evolution of the Mexican automotive industry, emphasizing the difficulties faced by a late-comer country in developing an independent industry, and the importance of policy choices as well as the macroeconomic context in affecting its development. NAFTA represents the culmination of an integration process that has profoundly transformed the structure of the Mexican automotive industry, deepening its dependence on the US market. While there is no doubt that it has contributed to the spectacular growth of the Mexican auto industry, whether it also increased its resilience or, rather, its dependence is still an open question. This issue is particularly relevant in view of the transformations that are taking place in the automotive sector and in the geopolitical scenario. These include the end of NAFTA and the advent of USMCA, the entry of powerful competitors into the global market, and the transition to electric and autonomous vehicles, which all entail risks and opportunities. The lens of the centre-periphery relationship can help to understand the present integration of North America and its future direction. |
| Keywords: | automotive industry; Mexico; global production networks; core-periphery |
| JEL: | L62 F23 O3 |
| Date: | 2021–10–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp166&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | For liberal economists, with the end of the Soviet Union, globalization is a step towards peace. However, war is still a threat for a humanity capable today of committing suicide, with nuclear and cybernetic weapons. The analyses of mercantilism do not disappear and the relations of force are still alive. The nature of "war" has changed. National security cannot be limited to the military, it also includes health, education, industrial risks or the protection of natural resources. The economy is both a cause of war and a means of armed conflict. Economic warfare uses weapons adapted to obtain a right or the exercise of a domination. As such, blockades, embargoes, boycotts or mercantilist-type power actions are techniques of war or conflict recognized by States. The international economic system is largely dominated and organized by the great powers and by multinational corporations. Moreover, the coercive power of states is mainly controlled by the largest multinationals. The current globalization is criticized, it is accused of developing inequalities and factors of conflicts, by giving power to the actors of international finance and to an unscrupulous commercial world. With the process of digitalization, a new type of colonialism in a dematerialized world deeply influenced by mercantilist behavior. There is a need for economic and social democratization of democracy. |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03381421&r= |
| By: | Jean-Luc Arregle (emlyon business school); Francesco Chirico; Liena Kano; Sumit K. Kundu; Antonio Majocchi; William S. Schulze |
| Abstract: | Although the study of family firm internationalization has generated considerable scholarly attention, existing research has offered varied and at times incompatible findings on how family ownership and management shape internationalization. To improve our understanding of family firm internationalization, we systematically review 220 conceptual and empirical studies published over the past three decades, structuring our comprehensive overview of this field according to seven core international business (IB) themes. We assess the literature and propose directions for future research by developing an integrative framework of family firm internationalization that links IB theory with conceptual perspectives used in the reviewed body of work. We propose a research agenda that advocates a cross-disciplinary, multi-theoretic, and cross-level approach to studying family firm internationalization. We conclude that family firm internationalization research has the potential to contribute valuable insights to IB scholarship by increasing attention to conceptual and methodological issues, including micro-level affective motivations, background social institutions, temporal perspectives, and multi-level analyses.Bien que l'internationalisation des entreprises familiales ait fait l'objet d'un intérêt de recherche considérable, les travaux existants apportent des résultats variés et parfois incompatibles sur la manière dont la propriété et la gestion familiales façonnent l'internationalisation. Dans le but d'améliorer notre connaissance de l'internationalisation des entreprises familiales, nous examinons systématiquement 220 travaux conceptuels et empiriques publiés au cours des trois dernières décennies, permettant de structurer notre aperçu complet sur ce champ selon sept thèmes clés des affaires internationales (IB - International Business). Nous évaluons la littérature, et proposons des orientations de recherche pour l'avenir en développant un cadre intégrateur de l'internationalisation des entreprises familiales, lequel relie la théorie IB aux perspectives conceptuelles utilisées dans l'ensemble des travaux examinés. Nous proposons un programme de recherche qui prône une approche transdisciplinaire, multi-théorique et multi-niveaux pour étudier l'internationalisation des entreprises familiales. Nous concluons que les travaux portés sur cette dernière ont le potentiel d'apporter des renseignements précieux au champ de recherche IB, en accordant une attention accrue aux problèmes méthodologiques et conceptuels, plus particulièrement, aux motivations affectives au niveau micro, aux institutions sociales de base, aux perspectives temporelles et aux analyses multi-niveaux. |
| Keywords: | systematic review,family firm internationalization,international business theory |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03381228&r= |
| By: | Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow; Mr. Vikram Haksar; Emanuel Kopp; Gabriel Quiros; Emran Islam; Andrew Giddings; Kathleen Kao |
| Abstract: | The ongoing economic and financial digitalization is making individual data a key input and source of value for companies across sectors, from bigtechs and pharmaceuticals to manufacturers and financial services providers. Data on human behavior and choices—our “likes,” purchase patterns, locations, social activities, biometrics, and financing choices—are being generated, collected, stored, and processed at an unprecedented scale. |
| Keywords: | Data, finance, bigtech, competition, privacy, trade, policy coordination, global principles |
| Date: | 2021–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2021/005&r= |