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on International Trade |
| By: | Yeon, Wonho (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Hyun, Sangbaek (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Park, Minsuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hyojin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Oh, Yunmi (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 최근 미·중 간 통상 분쟁, 중국의 국산화율 제고정책 강화 등 중국을 둘러싼 대내외 통상환경의 변화가 다이내믹하게 전개되고 있다. 이러한 변화는 한ㆍ중 무역구조에 직간접적으로 영향을 미칠 것으로 전망된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 향후 우리나라의 대중국 수출품이 중국산 또는 외국산 제품에 의해 대체될 수 있는 가능성에 주목하고, 한국산 수출품의 대체가능성을 분석하기 위한 새로운 정량 분석 방법론을 구축하였다. Recent changes in the trade environment surrounding China are developing dynamically. These changes are expected to directly or indirectly affect the Korea-China trade structure. Therefore, in this study, focusing on the possibility that Korea’s exports to China could be replaced by Chinese or foreign products in the future, we establish a new quantitative analysis methodology to analyze the level of substitutability of Korean exports. One of the most important external changes in China’s trade environment is the U.S.-China trade conflict. In particular, in countries such as Korea that export final products to the U.S. while forming a division of labor with China in the global value chain (GVC), the conflict between the U.S. and China is acting as a greater destabilizing factor. In terms of the substitutability of Korean exports to China, the U.S.-China conflict can have an effect through various channels, and one of the important events is the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade agreement. For internal changes, it is important to study China’s industrial upgrading strategy. China, which has been called the “world’s factory,” has been pursuing a strategy to improve the localization rate and upgrade its industrial structure through technological development and innovation. Accordingly, China has been adjusting its role and position within the GVC, in which China used to be in charge of the simple processing trade. As the U.S.-China trade dispute escalated since 2018, the U.S. containment policies have intensified as well, particularly against China’s advanced industry and technology sector. As a reaction to this, China has dealt with its industrial policies not only in the context of economic growth but also in national security. The strategy to indigenize core technologies and parts has been strengthened and pursued under the goal of establishing a fully independent supply chain within the nation. Due to China’s industrial advancement and import substitution strategy, concerns are growing about the replacement of Korean-made exports to China by Chinese products. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | South Korea; China; trade; trade structure; export; GVC; Global Value Chain; trade dispute |
| Date: | 2021–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_035&r= |
| By: | Ping Hua (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Despite its high implication into global value chains (GVCs), the Chinese real domestic value added in exports increased at an annual average growth rate of 14% over the 2000-2016 period and its ratio from 65% to 83%. To understand this evolution, a GVC augmented function of domestic value added in exports is proposed and estimated using panel data of 16 Chinese manufacturing sectors over the 2005-2014 period from OCDE TiVA and WIOD databases. Besides the traditional positive effects of labor productivity, capital intensity and employment on domestic value added in exports, we find that China's GVC positon improvement through withdrawing backward links and increasing forward links exerted positive effects. The negative elasticity of backward links multiplied by the decreasing share of foreign value added and by its indirect productivity effect contributed to increase Chinese domestic value added in exports. This contribution is 3.5 times higher than that of GVC forward links, measured as the product of the positive elasticity of forward links multiplied by the increasing share of exports of intermediate goods embodied to exports of third countries. This successful moving up from low cost labor-intensive processing and assembly to relatively higher value-added intermediated goods decreased the risk of being stuck in low-value-added tasks, while the future one should be much more complicated in the context of increasing trade protectionism. |
| Keywords: | China,domestic value added,global value chains JEL: F15,F41,F62 |
| Date: | 2021–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03373508&r= |
| By: | Asaduzzaman, Md |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the empirical relationship between economic growth (GDP) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as well as the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Trade Openness (TOP) of Bangladesh over the period from 1973 to 2017 by using Johansen cointegration test and VECM analysis. The empirical findings exhibit that there are a distinctive short-run and long-run relationship that exists between economic growth and foreign direct investment in Bangladesh. While the Error Correction Term (ECT) result exhibits that real effective exchange rate and trade openness are causing economic growth in the long-run. This study highly suggests that fully utilizing foreign direct investment and trade openness is one of the best chances of Bangladesh to develop its economy. Therefore, the policymaker should have more foresight to influence foreign direct investment and trade openness on the long term basis, especially to facilitate investment in the special economic zone (such as EPZ) and export more manufacturing goods and services and importing capital goods through maintaining the trade balance. |
| Keywords: | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER); Trade Openness (TOP); Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Model; Bangladesh Economy |
| JEL: | C1 C15 C3 C32 C4 C49 C5 C51 E6 F1 F3 |
| Date: | 2019–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110328&r= |
| By: | Cho, Moonhee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Bae, Chankwon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Kyu Yub (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Jungu (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Ji Hyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 최근 글로벌 통상환경의 가장 큰 특징은 일방적 통상정책의 확산이다. 이 보고서는 일방적 통상정책의 국제적 확산 동향을 살펴보고 무역구조의 변화를 실증적·이론적으로 분석한다. This study analyzes the widespread diffusion of unilateral trade policies and change in trade structures. Chapter 2 examines the trend in unilateral trade policies, the economic and trade uncertainty they generate, and the direct and indirect evidences of their diffusion. Unilateral trade policies are diverse in measures and unilaterally imposed on partner countries, hence increasing uncertainty in the international trade environment. In the case of the United States, after the Trade Preference Extension Act of 2015 came into force, anti-dumping and countervailing duties were actively used and higher rates were growingly imposed. Unilateral trade policies are spreading internationally. Non-tariff measures including anti-dumping, countervailing measures, SPS and TBT measures are increasing. Moreover, both developing and developed countries are adopting trade-disruptive measures and these are rapidly increasing. Uncertainty grows with the diffusion of unilateral trade policies, in particular the average value of the World Uncertainty Index almost increased to four-fivefold compared to 1990. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | US; trade policy; international; trade structure; unilateral; Global Value Chain; GVC |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_026&r= |
| By: | Suh, Jin Kyo (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Cheon-Kee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Jukwan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jihyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jung, Myeonghwa (Korea Maritime Institute (KMI)) |
| Abstract: | WTO 다자체제의 구조적 위기 이면에는 선진국과 개도국의 대립, 특히 미국과 중국의 대결이라는 쉽게 해소되기 어려운 난제가 있다. 따라서 WTO 다자체제의 회복을 기대하기 쉽지 않다. 향후 세계 무역은 신보호무역주의 정착과 미ﾷ중 통상마찰이 심화되는 과정에서 빠르게 서비스화·디지털화될 전망이다. 또한 글로벌 가치사슬은 지역화 및 지식 중심으로 변화가 뚜렷하다. 이에 우리나라의 WTO 다자협상 대책도 기존 상품 위주에서 서비스와 지재권 등 무형의 자산 중심으로 무게 추를 바꿀 필요가 있다. 또한 다양한 성격의 복수국간 협상이 부상할 전망이므로, 이에 대한 사전준비도 필요하다. 특히 가치사슬의 지역화 경향에 따라 기체결 FTA와 시너지효과를 낼 수 있는 협상전략도 강구해야 된다. The WTO is facing a historical crisis. Its main functions ‒ namely, providing a negotiating forum, administrating WTO trade agreements and monitoring national trade policies, and resolving trade disputes ‒ are significantly paralyzed. The WTO launched the Doha Development Round in 2001, but failed to produce meaningful outcomes to this day. Further, China’s entry into the WTO has neither opened up its economy, nor created a level playing field when it comes to potentially market-distorting subsidies. The surveillance of trade policies based on the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM), a fundamentally important activity running throughout the work of the WTO aimed at fostering transparency, is criticized for its lack of effectiveness. The Dispute Settlement Mechanism (DSM), once praised as the WTO’s “crown jewel,” is now on the verge of collapse due to the absence of an appeal court. Although the cause of the crisis is partly institutional, higher uncertainty is also a considerable problem aggravating the fate of the multilateral trading system. Such uncertainty comes from two factors: rising protectionism, and trade frictions between developed and developing countries including those between the United States and China. Meanwhile, the WTO also needs to respond to rapid structural changes in global trade. The center of the world’s trade is shifting towards trade in services. The development and spread of information and communication technology (ICT) are making it easier to supply services across borders. Global Value Chains’ (GVCs) regionalization or localization is deepening and GVCs are shifting towards knowledge-based goods. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | WTO; Korea; New Negotiation strategies; structural paralysis; GVCs; global value chains; DDA; TPRM; DSU |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_020&r= |
| By: | Minetti, Raoul (Michigan State University, Department of Economics); Murro, Pierluigi (Luiss University); Rowe, Nicholas (Michigan State University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of local nancial development on rms' internationalization in the presence of a heterogeneous banking sector. Using rm-level data from Italy, we document that, when driven by banks with a local focus, nancial development boosts export participation but can depress the export sales of incumbent exporters. We explain these patterns through an industry equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous rms and banks. Local nancial deepening enhances banks' ability to monitor domestic and export activities, easing the entry of credit rationed rms into export, but induces credit satiated exporters to partly redirect their production capacity to domestic markets. Calibrating the model to match the data reveals that, when nancial development is too local, increased domestic output and export participation can come at the cost of reduced aggregate exports. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Internationalization; Banking Structure; Aggregate Trade Flows |
| JEL: | E44 G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2021–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msuecw:2021_003&r= |
| By: | Ma, Xiao; Nakab, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | Trade openness can affect welfare through changes in workers’ skill acquisition. We develop a multisector Eaton–Kortum model, in which skill intensities and on-the-job learning opportunities are heterogeneous across sectors. Workers decide whether to become skilled before entering the labor market and accumulate human capital on the job. Through the lens of our model, trade-induced sector reallocation changes the returns of becoming skilled and on-the-job learning opportunities. Our model allows for an analytical formula of the gains from trade. This formula is an augmented version of the ACR formula and includes gains due to changes in skill acquisition. Our calibrated model suggests that the gains from trade due to changes in skill acquisition are vastly different across countries and may be negative, with sizable gains for the United States, the United Kingdom, and India, as well as considerable losses for Germany, Brazil, and Argentina. |
| Keywords: | international trade; sector reallocation; gains from trade; skill acquisition; human capital; college education; on-the job learning. |
| JEL: | F1 J2 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110267&r= |
| By: | Gloria Allione (Bank of Italy); Alberto Felettigh (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We econometrically investigate the heterogeneous ability of Italian exporting sectors at coping with the Covid-19 shock, which affected in an idiosyncratic fashion both supply, mainly due to the selective suspension of non-essential activities in the country during the lockdown in March-April 2020, and foreign demand. Our results show that had the lockdown not impaired production, overall Italian manufacturing exports would have fallen essentially one-to-one with foreign demand. We conclude that there is no evidence, so far, of Covid-19 having permanently weakened the decade-long ability of Italian firms to safeguard their positions in international markets. |
| Keywords: | potential demand, export performance, sectoral heterogeneity, Covid-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | F14 F40 L60 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_643_21&r= |
| By: | Stefano Federico (Banca d’Italia); Claire Giordano (Banca d’Italia) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting several highly granular datasets, we compute Italy’s goods export market shares at a 5-digit sector of economic activity level over 2010–19 to identify the “market-share gainer†and “loser†sectors in world markets over the past decade, and “stable†sectors, identified residually. We next assess the main structural characteristics, both domestic and external, of these categories of sectors. Finally, we analyse Italy’s 5-digit goods export developments in 2020 in order to verify the performance of the various sector groupings during the Covid-19 pandemic. Italy’s gainers are mainly agri-food products, the fashion industry and pharmaceuticals, whereas losers are more heterogeneous across macro-sectors; around 40 per cent of industries are classified as stable, consistently with the resilience of Italy’s aggregate world market share. Gainers are characterized by significantly lower competition from both China and Central-Eastern Europe and by higher quality positioning than losers; they are also more productive, more intensely involved in GVCs and display a higher share of young and of female workers. On average, market-share gainers fared relatively better than the other industries in 2020, albeit only slightly. |
| Keywords: | Export market shares, world goods trade, structural characteristics, Covid-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | F14 L60 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_641_21&r= |
| By: | Richard Baldwin; Jonathan I. Dingel |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced huge numbers of employers and employees to remote work. How many of these newly remote jobs will go overseas? We offer a rough quantification based on two observations: 1) offshore work is trade in services, and 2) the number of telemigrants is the volume of this trade divided by the average wage. Combining these with gravity-model estimates, we can roughly predict the number of new telemigrants that would arise from lower barriers to trade in services. Telemigration seems unlikely to be transformative when it comes to the development paths of most emerging economies. The baseline service trade flows are modest, and the standard gravity model restricts modest changes to have modest impacts. There are no tipping points in structural gravity models. Finally, we propose a simple model of telemigration in which small changes can have large consequences. The key is to assume that latent comparative advantage takes a different shape than typically assumed in quantitative trade models. Given this, small changes in trade costs can generate large and asymmetric increases in the exports of service tasks from low-wage nations. |
| JEL: | F1 J2 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29387&r= |
| By: | Kim, Hyunsoo (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Yea, Sangjun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Keum, Hyeyoon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Minji (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 국제기구와 지역무역협정에서의 지식재산권 보호 논의 동향을 파악하고 지역무역협정을 통한 지식재산권 보호의 강화가 무역에 미치는 영향을 분석함으로써 향후 기체결 FTA 개선과 새로운 FTA 추진 전략 수립에 유용한 기초 자료와 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. This study investigates changes in the trend regarding the IP protection level in RTA and how the IP protection through RTAs has affected the composition of aggregate trade flows of member countries in order to provide basic findings necessary to formulate the FTA policies regarding the protection of intellectual property (IP) in Korea. This study first quantifies the depth of IP protection in RTAs based on more than 300 RTAs all over the world, showing that recent RTAs contain more comprehensive and strong IP protection provisions. We find that only 6 out of 71 RTAs had a high level of IP protection before 2000, while 45 out of 105 RTAs have a high level of IP protection after 2010. Second, we find that establishing such RTAs with high level of IP protection has positive effects on trade. In particular, exports in IP-intensive industries have increased in member countries of RTAs with high level of IP protection compared to other countries. However, the impact that strengthening IP protection through RTA has on imports is complex; it is negative in IP-intensive industries but positive in other industries. In order to rationalize these findings, we develop a two country and multi sector model featuring North firms deciding between exports and FDI, while South firms decide between imitation and R&D. In the model the increased IP protection affects South firm’s R&D incentives and relative wages, followed by changes in North firm’s FDI incentives. These strategic interactions between North and South firms vary depending on IP intensity of the industry, partly explaining the empirical findings. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | IP; FTA; RTA; intellectual property protection; trade; |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_011&r= |
| By: | Aaron B. Flaaen; Flora Haberkorn; Logan T. Lewis; Anderson Monken; Justin R. Pierce; Rosemary Rhodes; Madeleine Yi |
| Abstract: | We evaluate high-frequency bill of lading data for its suitability in international trade research. These data offer many advantages over both other publicly accessible official trade data and confidential datasets, but they also have clear drawbacks. We provide a comprehensive overview for potential researchers to understand these strengths and weaknesses as these data become more widely available. Drawing on the strengths of the data, we analyze three aspects of trade during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we show how the high-frequency data capture features of the within-month collapse of trade between the United States and India that are not observable in official monthly data. Second, we demonstrate how U.S. buyers shifted their purchases across suppliers over time during the recovery. And third, we show how the data can be used to measure vessel delivery bottlenecks in near real time. |
| Keywords: | Bill of lading; COVID-19 trade; Firm-level trade |
| JEL: | C81 F14 F17 |
| Date: | 2021–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-66&r= |
| By: | Luca Citino (Bank of Italy); Andrea Linarello (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the effects of increased import competition from China on the Italian labour market. In line with recent studies (Autor et al., 2013, 2014), we take two complementary approaches and study the effects on both local labour markets and manufacturing workers. Our analysis shows that Italy’s local labour markets, which were more exposed to Chinese trade because of their industry composition, ended up suffering larger manufacturing and overall employment losses. Nevertheless, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the aggregate effect on total manufacturing employment is modest. At the individual level, contrary to what has been documented for many developed countries, workers initially employed in more exposed manufacturing industries did not suffer long-term losses in terms of lower earnings or more discontinuous careers. While they were indeed less likely than other similar workers to continue working in manufacturing, they were also able to carry out successful transitions towards the non-tradable sector, in other areas with better job opportunities. |
| Keywords: | import competition, Italy, China, manufacturing, local labor market, worker mobility. |
| JEL: | F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1345_21&r= |
| By: | Koo, Kyong Hyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Hyuk-Hwang (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 2000년대 이후 중국과 베트남의 부상으로 인한 우리나라 무역구조의 변화가 국내 고용구조의 변화에 미친 영향을 산업 및 직종 수준에서 분석하고, 이러한 고용구조의 변화가 근로자들의 소득과 고용안정성에 미친 영향을 살펴봄으로써 포용적 무역을 위한 통상보완정책 및 노동정책에 대한 시사점을 도출하였다. Korea’s trade with China and Vietnam has increased remarkably for the last decades and this trend is one of the most notable changes in the Korean trade structure since the 2000s. This study analyzes the impact of changes in the Korean trade structure caused by the rise of China and Vietnam on the changes in the domestic employment structure at the industry and occupation level, and examines how the changes affected workers’ earnings and employment security over a longer period. This study finds that the increase in imports from/exports to China and Vietnam from 2003 through 2018 has caused significant changes in Korea’s manufacturing employment by industry and occupation. Specifically, the employment declined in industries that are more exposed to import competition from China and Vietnam (e.g., textiles, clothing, shoes, computers and video equipment, etc.), while the employment increased in industries with large export growth to China and Vietnam(e.g., machinery and equipment, precision equipment, semiconductors, ferroalloys, etc.). The fact that not only imports from but also exports to China and Vietnam rose sharply in Korea partly explains why Korean manufacturing employment rebounded from the mid-2000s, unlike other advanced countries. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Korea; China; Vietnam; labor market; policy implications; structure; employment; industry |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_019&r= |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Erik Frohm; Emily Highkin; Carter Mix |
| Abstract: | Economic textbooks outline a simple relationship between movements in a country’s exchange rate and its export volumes. When the exporter’s currency depreciates, export volumes are expected to increase due to competitiveness gains in foreign markets. |
| Date: | 2021–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2021-10-06-1&r= |
| By: | Yoon, Yeo Joon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Hong, Sungwoo (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jino (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jonghyuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Nam, Jimin (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Korea) |
| Abstract: | 본 보고서에서는 MERCOSUR와 PA의 역내외 통합에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. MERCOSUR와 PA의 역내외 통합에 대한 이해는 현재 진행되고 있는 협상을 위해 우리가 선제적으로 갖춰야 할 부분인 동시에 협상 타결 후 이들과 원활하게 교류하기 위한 중요한 밑거름이 될 것이다. 본 연구에서 다루는 역내외 통합은 몇 가지 의미를 지니고 있다. 먼저 무역, 투자, 역내공급망 등의 분야에서 통합지수(index)를 구축하고 분석함으로써 넓은 의미에서 통합 정도를 가늠한다. 이에 더해 MERCOSUR와 PA 출범 이후 회원국간의 통상갈등 사례를 조명함으로써 역내 통합의 저해 사례와 그 배경에 대해 분석한다. 그리고 MERCOSUR와 PA 간 무역협정 중에 나타난 문제점들을 짚어봄으로써 회원국간의 통합을 저해하는 요인 및 협상대상국과의 갈등 요인을 분석한다. MERCOSUR and the Pacific Alliance (PA) are the two major trade blocs in Latin America. Currently, Korea is negotiating a trade agreement (TA) with MERCOSUR and PA. The countries that Korea has signed FTAs in Latin America include Chile, Peru, Colombia and six Central American countries. In other words, Korea has signed free trade agreements with most Latin American countries except Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. Therefore, to have enhanced access to the Latin American market, Korea-MERCOSUR TA and joining the PA as an associate member is important for Korea. In this report we study the nature of internal and external integration of MERCOSUR and PA. For better integration of Korea and these Latin American trade blocs in the future, it would be important to understand their current level and nature of integration. The integration in this study has several facets. First, we take a quantitative approach. To do this an integration index is constructed and analyzed. This index considers integration in trade, value chains and so on. The second approach is more qualitative. Specifically the case of the MERCOSUR-EU Trade Agreement and PA associate member negotiation process are investigated. By doing this, we analyze the factors that hinder the external integration of these blocs. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | MERCOSUR; PA; Pacific Alliance; Korea; economic integration; trade agreement |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_032&r= |
| By: | Lee, Cheon-Kee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Jukwan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Park, Hyeri (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kang, Yoo-Duk (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구에서는 미국, 유럽연합, 우리나라의 FTA 환경·노동 규범을 살펴보고, FTA에서 환경·노동 이슈가 부상하게 된 배경과 그 영향을 경제학적으로 분석하였다. 한국의 ILO 핵심협약 미비준 관련 한·EU FTA 노동분쟁, 유럽연합에서 도입을 검토하고 있는 탄소국경조정메커니즘(CBAM) 등 우리나라에 중요한 의미가 있는 무역과 환경·노동 규범 연계 사례의 경우 사안별로 통상법적 시각에서 추가 분석하였다. 나아가 우리가 기수용한 FTA 환경·노동 의무의 ‘이행’ 측면에 특히 주목하여 우리 정부가 향후 FTA 체결·개정·이행 과정에서 참고할 만한 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. Trade-related issues such as market access, and tariff elimination or reduction have been the main concerns of free trade agreements or “FTAs” since the 2000s. But more of the recent FTAs appear to focus on non-trade concerns such as protection of the environment and workers. A typical example is the FTA between Korea and the European Union (hereinafter referred to as “Korea-EU FTA”), which was signed in 2009 and provisionally taken into force in 2011. Ever since Korea-EU FTA the European Union has included a chapter on “Trade and Sustainable Development” or “TSD” in its FTAs to extensively provide for environment and labour obligations. Further, it is noteworthy that the United States and the European Union have resorted to dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms within their FTAs to ensure their trade partners effectively implement environment and labour obligations at the domestic level. For instance, on December 17, 2018, the European Commission formally requested a consultation to Korea under Korea-EU FTA on the grounds that the Korean government had not shown sufficient efforts in ratifying the remaining four of the eight ILO core conventions and thus acted inconsistently with the TSD Chapter of the same FTA. This is the first case that the European Union has ever initiated a dispute settlement procedure under a TSD Chapter. The Panel of Experts was composed on December 30, 2019, and it recently published the final report on January 25th, 2021. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | FTAs; Korea-EU FTA; TSD; Trade and Sustainable Development; environment; labour; ILO |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_030&r= |
| By: | Keun Lee; Taeyoung Park |
| Abstract: | This paper has provided some overview of the changing GVC in Asia, especially since the outbreak of Covid-19, focusing on the phenomena of reshoring and nearshoring. It first discussed the role of the three factors responsible for changing and shaping GVC in Asia, and they are digitalization with Industry 4.0 since the 2010s, the US-China trade conflict since 2018, and the Covid-19 since 2020. Thus, an emerging trend is that FDI firms in China and Asia are either reshoring their factories back to their home bases or relocating to nearby locations, such as Vietnam and other Southeast Asian economies. These changes are also associated with MNCs¡¯ move to increase the resiliency of their value chains and by the national government to promote domestic jobs by offering incentives to reshoring. Investigating the cases of reshoring involving Korean firms getting out of China or SEA, the paper identifies three types, 1) reshoring of production of labour-intensive products requiring monetary or tax incentives, 2) reshoring getting possible by flattening of GVC by innovation, such as skipping a stage where semi-finished products are processed in foreign countries, and 3) large scale automation or transformation into Smart Factory, which requires considerable investment and innovation capabilities. These cases and typology suggest that effective reshoring requires not just monetary incentives but also technical assistance to realize the potentials for innovation and automation. In the meantime, some FDI firms are moving out of China and relocating into nearby SEA countries mainly for labour-saving reasons and avoiding tariffs imposed by the US on made-in-China products. Such exit from China might mean a new opportunity for SEA, as exemplified by Vietnam receiving many FDI firms out of China. It could be a new opportunity for SEA to overcome the challenges posed by 4IR and keep existing FDI (onshoring) and/or attract new factories getting out of China (nearshoring). |
| Keywords: | Reshoring; Near-shoring; China; Korea; Southeast Asia; Digital Factory; |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snu:ioerwp:no144&r= |
| By: | David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson |
| Abstract: | Abstract We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes. |
| JEL: | E24 F16 J23 J31 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29401&r= |
| By: | La, Meeryung (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Cheong, Jaewan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Shin, Mingeum (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jegook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 아세안은 2018년 아세안서비스기본협정(AFAS: ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services)의 10차 패키지 협상을 마무리하고, 2020년 아세안서비스무역협정(ATISA: ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement)에 서명하는 등 역내 서비스자유화를 위한 노력을 지속하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 아세안의 서비스시장 통합 현황을 파악하고, 그 경제적 효과를 분석하고자 하였다. ASEAN has been pursuing economic integration on services since 1995, reducing trade restrictions on services to ASEAN member states through the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) packages commitments. ASEAN signed the ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement (ATISA) on October 2020, which includes built-in agenda to convert members’ commitments to a negative approach, replacing the AFAS 10th package. Upon this backdrop, this report aims to analyze the current status of economic integration on services among ASEAN members and the impact of such commitments on ASEAN and non-ASEAN countries. The targets of AFAS packages are summarized as follows: (i) eliminating Mode 1 and 2 restrictions, (ii) substantially eliminating market access limitations regarding Mode 3, and (iii) raising minimum ASEAN equity participation to 70%. Upon reviewing the commitments concluded in the AFAS 10th package, Myanmar, the Philippines and Viet Nam were yet to reach the thresholds, and the overall degree of openness among ASEAN member states regarding Mode 3 restrictions remained relatively low. Meanwhile, ASEAN has restricted liberalization on the movement of natural persons (Mode 4), and signed the ASEAN Agreement on Movement of Natural Persons (AAMNP) in 2012 for facilitating the movement of high-skilled labor only. According to the theoretical model used in this report, ASEAN’s approach to Mode 4 liberalization could be appropriate. This is because, if the endowment gaps among countries are large enough, factor mobility could lead to agglomeration of productions in a single large country. However, if there is a complementary relationship between the modes, ASEAN’s efforts to lower trade barriers in the services sector are not expected to be effective as long as they pursue such asymmetric liberalization among modes of supply. Therefore, it would be proper to adopt different liberalization strategies regarding Mode 4 barriers depending on whether each service sector has inter-modal substitution or complementarity. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; AFAS; ASEAN Framework Agreement; service; economy; economic integration |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_029&r= |
| By: | Joe, Dong-Hee (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Cheolwon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hyun Jean (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jeong, Minji (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Moon, Seongman (Jeonbuk National University) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 유럽연합(EU)의 이민과 노동시장을 분석한다. 구체적으로, EU 및 유럽 주요국들의 이민 관련 제도를 살펴보고 특징을 파악한다. 이러한 특징을 한국과 비교하여, 한국의 관련 제도 발전을 위한 시사점을 도출한다. 또한 상황에 대한 구체적인 이해를 높이고자 EU의 이민 현황을 체계적으로 살펴본다. 이민 유입과 관련하여 EU뿐만 아니라 한국에서도 가장 관심 있는 주제는 이민 유입이 유입국 노동시장에 미치는 영향일 것이다. 이에 대한 객관적인 이해를 돕고자, 본 연구는 EU의 자료를 이용하여 이민 유입이 해당 노동시장에 미치는 영향을 추정한다. 이처럼 제도, 현황, 영향에 대한 종합적인 분석을 통해, 한국의 주요 교역상대인 EU의 이민과 노동시장에 대한 이해를 높이고, 관련된 한국의 제도 발전을 위한 시사점을 제공하며, 이민 유입이 한국의 노동시장에 미칠 영향을 가늠할 참고자료를 제공한다. This report analyzes migration and labor market in the European Union (EU henceforth). First, the EU’s and major European countries’ regulations and institutions on migration are analyzed, and some stylized-facts are established. Comparing these stylized-facts with the Korea counterparts, it offers policy implications for Korea. Also, main features of the states of migration in the EU are described, to deepen the understanding of the situation. A major interest regarding immigration, in Korea as well as in the EU, would be its impact on labor market in destination countries. To help better understanding on this, the impact of immigration on the recipient labor market is estimated, using the data from the EU. By doing a comprehensive analysis, this report aims to deepen the understanding on migration and labor market in the EU, derive policy implications for Korea, and offer a reference to assess the impact of an increase of immigration on the Korean labor market. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | EU; Korea; migration; immigration; labor market; |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_031&r= |
| By: | Jeong, Hyung-Gon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Hong Bae (Dong-Eui University); Lee, Hyong-Kun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Park, Minsuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 한·중·일 소부장 산업은 2000년 이후 상호간 GVC 연계성이 보다 더 강화되었고, 중국 중심의 GVC로 개편되고 있다. 코로나19, 일본과 중국의 대한국 제재 등 경제외적 요인들이 한·중·일 경제협력의 장애요인이 되고 있으나, 한·중·일 소부장 산업의 GVC 연계성은 더 강화되고 있으며, 우리 산업에 미치는 스필오버 효과도 크게 나타나고 있어 한·중·일은 중요한 협력 파트너임에 분명하다. 설문조사에 나타난 소부장 기업들의 공급망 관리와 GVC 개편 필요성에서도 중국과 일본의 중요성이 다시금 부각되었으며, 당분간 일본과 중국을 대체하는 새로운 형태의 GVC 형성은 매우 어려울 것임이 확인되었다. China, Japan and Korea (CJK) have been competing and cooperating in many fields in the material, parts and equipment industries due to their geographical proximity and similarity in industrial structure. However, non-economic factors such as COVID-19 and sanctions against Korea by Japan and China pose obstacles to economic cooperation among CJK. Therefore, this study derives policy implications for the efficient management of global value chains (GVCs) in the materials, parts and equipment industries by comparing the supply chain structure of Korea’s materials, parts and equipment industries with Japan and China. The main contents of this study consist of four parts. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Korea; China; Japan; GVC; material; part; equipment; industry |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_034&r= |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Economic immigration from countries not belonging to the European Economic Area represented, on the average, a little more than 13,200 people per year between 2000 and 2018. This yearly figure, sensitive to political changes, has constantly risen since 2012. Economic immigrants are concentrated in Paris and a few neighboring departments, and most of them are male. Two major trends can be observed since 2018. First of all, the immigration of the highly skilled has steadily increased and accounted for more than 6,500 people in 2018. Secondly, a large proportion of economic immigration stems from a policy for legalizing the status of immigrants (including persons who were refused asylum) who had jobs but did not have working permits. |
| Abstract: | L'immigration professionnelle des ressortissants des pays ne faisant pas partie de l'Espace économique européen a représenté en moyenne un peu plus de 13 200 personnes par an entre 2000 et 2018. Les flux annuels, qui sont sensibles aux alternances politiques, sont en hausse constante depuis 2012. L'immigration professionnelle est très majoritairement masculine et très concentrée sur Paris et quelques départements limitrophes. Depuis 2008, deux inflexions majeures sont constatées. Premièrement, l'immigration professionnelle très qualifiée progresse à un rythme soutenu et a dépassé le nombre de 6 500 personnes en 2018. Deuxièmement, une part significative de l'immigration professionnelle relève d'une politique de régularisation par le travail de personnes en situation irrégulière, dont des déboutés du droit d'asile. |
| Keywords: | Professional integration,Immigration,Insertion professionnelle,France |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03229920&r= |
| By: | Valerio Della Corte (Bank of Italy); Claudio Doria (Bank of Italy); Giacomo Oddo (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the response to the COVID-19 pandemic of inbound tourism to Italy looking at variation across countries and across provinces. To this end, it uses weekly data on the number of foreign visitors in Italy from January 2019 until February 2021, as provided by a primary mobile phone operator. We document a very robust negative relation at province level between local epidemiological conditions and the inflow of foreign travellers. Moreover, provinces with a historically higher share of art tourism, and those that used to be ‘hotel intensive’ were hit the most during the pandemic, while provinces with a more prevalent orientation towards business tourism proved to be more resilient. Entry restrictions with varying degrees of strictness played a key role in explaining cross-country patterns. After controlling for these restrictions, we observed that the travellers that could arrive by their own, private, means of transportation decreased proportionally less. Overall, this evidence emphasises that contagion risk considerations played a significant role in shaping international tourism patterns during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, travel restrictions, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | I15 L83 F14 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_647_21&r= |
| By: | Choi, Ina (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kwak, Sungil (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Cheong, Jaewan (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Jung-Mi (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Park, Nayoun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Mi Lim (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Lee, Jaehyon (ASAN Institute for Policy Studies); Cho, Won Deuk (Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security) |
| Abstract: | 아세안과 인도를 둘러싼 강대국간 경쟁이 심화되면서 한국의 신남방정책과 미국의 인도태평양 전략 간 협력에 대한 대내외적 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 인도태평양 전략에 대한 아세안과 인도의 입장과 대응을 분석하여 신남방정책과 인도태평양 전략 협력 추진 시 고려해야 할 전략적 함의를 제시하였다. 또한 신남방국가들의 협력 수요 분석을 기반으로 한·미 협력이 유망한 협력 분야와 주요 정책 과제들을 제시하였다. Given its geostrategic position and growing importance in the world economy, the Indo-Pacific region has attracted many major powers to actively engage with the region. With the unveiling of the New Southern Policy (NSP) in 2017, Korea has also sought to upgrade its relations with ASEAN and India by boosting economic ties, socio-cultural exchanges and cooperation in the area of peace and security. While an earlier version of the NSP focused on bilateral cooperation with targeted countries, it gradually began to explore opportunities to collaborate with other players in addressing the needs of ASEAN and India. In particular, as the United States seeks cooperation with its key allies in forging the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP), there has been growing interest in the search for convergence between the FOIP and the NSP. Initially, the Korean government took an ambiguous stance toward the U.S.’s new policy, but in 2019 the two governments agreed to work together by building synergies between the NSP and the FOIP. Nevertheless, given the strategic nature of the FOIP as a counterbalance to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the attendant concerns in Southeast Asia about being embroiled in U.S.-China rivalry, close collaboration with the FOIP poses some challenges for the NSP, whose primary objective is to win the heart of targeted countries and steer toward stronger cooperation with them. Against this backdrop, this report presents suggestions on how the NSP could cooperate with the FOIP in ways that suit the interests of ASEAN and India. The policy recommendation is based on analyzing how the FOIP is received by NSP-targeted countries and the cooperation needs of this region. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | New Southern Policy; USA; Indo-Pacific; ASEAN; Korea; China geostrategic position; Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy; Belt and Road Initiative |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_013&r= |
| By: | Jung, Jihyun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Choi, Wonseok (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Hongwon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Joo Hye (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 중국의 내수확대 전략이 강화되었던 글로벌 금융위기 이후 중국의 지역경제구도 변화를 다각도로 분석하여, 자립 내수경제를 본격화할 14.5 규획시기 중국의 지역구도 변화를 전망하였다. 이를 통해 미·중 갈등의 시대, 지역협력 중심의 대중국 전략 방향 및 내수시장 진출방안을 제시하였다. The growth of the Chinese domestic market, in terms of final domestic demand, is an important factor influencing Korea's economic growth. With the progress of so-called “servicification” in the Chinese economy, the influence of Chinese domestic growth on Korean economic growth has decreased to some extent, but the Chinese domestic market still remains important to Korea. On the other hand, as the conflict between the United States and China intensifies in various fields, it has become difficult for Korea to openly publicize strategic economic cooperation or cooperation projects with China as before, as it must balance its traditional focus on the US from a security standpoint and on China in economic aspects. In particular, the Biden administration will further systematize anti-China solidarity centered on allies, and in response to this, China's willingness to cooperate with neighboring countries is expected to grow. In the meantime, there is a concern that the scope of Korea's operations in the area of foreign cooperation will further narrow. In this situation, Korea needs to promote economic cooperation with China, centered on regional cooperation, that can minimize the impact of unstable global governance. This is because it will be possible to promote cooperation at each regional level even in the midst of the US-China conflict, and this form of cooperation is much more flexible and practically accessible than cooperation between countries. Companies and associations in the US and Japan are maintaining and expanding cooperation with local governments, including participation in Chinese local government projects, even in the face of poor relations between their countries and China. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | China; Korea; global financial crisis; economic structure; economic strategy; domestic market; US-China conflict |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2020_025&r= |
| By: | Matthew Higgins; Thomas Klitgaard |
| Abstract: | The return of U.S. real GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of this year was driven by consumer spending on goods. Such spending was well above its pre-pandemic path, while spending on services was well below. Despite the surge in goods spending, domestic manufacturing has increased only modestly, leaving most of the increase in demand being filled by imports. While higher imports have been a drag on growth, the size of this drag has been moderated by the value created by the domestic transportation, wholesale, and retail sectors in selling these goods. Going forward, a rebalancing of consumer spending toward services could give a lift to growth, by shifting demand toward purchases with little import content. |
| Keywords: | consumer spending; goods; services; Gross National Product; GDP; imports; pandemic; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E2 F00 |
| Date: | 2021–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:93270&r= |