nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2021‒09‒27
forty-five papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Impact of US-China Trade War on Indian External Trade By Sanyal, Anirban
  2. The impact of regulatory heterogeneity on global value chain-related trade By Alessio Lombini
  3. EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit By Steven Brakman; Harry Garretsen; Tristan Kohl
  4. Heterogeneous Effects of Non-tariff Measures on Cross-border Investments: Bilateral Firm-level Analysis By Amat Adarov; Mahdi Ghodsi
  5. Russia’s participation in the WTO’s trade disputes By Knobel Alexander; Baeva Marina
  6. How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity By Gianluca Orefice; Hillel Rapoport; Gianluca Santoni
  7. The impact of COVID-19 on exports related jobs By Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa; Rueda-Cantuche, José Manuel
  8. Retailer-driven value chain in agri-food sector: analysis of the participation of French firms By Kossi Messanh Agbekponou; Angela Cheptea; Karine Latouche
  9. Gains from Free Trade Agreements: A Theoretical Analysis By Huria, Sugandha
  10. A Different Product?: Expansion and Geography of International Meat Trade in the First Globalization and the Great Depression By Pablo Delgado; Vicente Pinilla; Gema Aparicio
  11. The Spanish Industry Performance in International Markets (1890-1913) By Pablo Delgado
  12. Gravity of Covid-19 By Masood, Amjad; Ahmed, Junaid; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  13. ICT Diffusion, Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Isaac K. Ofori; Simplice A. Asongu
  14. Not all that glitters is gold: political stability and trade in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Yapatake Kossele, Thales; Nnanna, Joseph
  15. Do export transitions differently affect firm productivity? Evidence across Vietnamese manufacturing sectors By Ngo, Thanh; Nguyen, Canh
  16. Immigrants, Legal Status, and Illegal Trade By McCully, Brett
  17. Global Value Chain Participation and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Camara K. Obeng; Peter Y. Mwinlaaru; Isaac K. Ofori
  18. Foreign Direct Investment, Governance and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa By Isaac K. Ofori; Simplice A. Asongu
  19. Chinese Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth of Bangladesh: A VECM Analysis By Sakib, Mohammad Nazmus; pande, Saikat; kumar, Rimon; Arif, Dr. Kazi mostafa
  20. The Effect of Recent Technological Change on US Immigration Policy By Björn Brey
  21. Unilateral Tax Policy in the Open Economy By Miriam Kohl; Philipp M. Richter
  22. The Backlash of Globalization By Italo Colantone; Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano; Piero Stanig
  23. Towards Building Shared Prosperity in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Does the Effect of Economic Integration Compare to Social Equity Policies? By Isaac K. Ofori
  24. Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation By Isaac K. Ofori; Mark K. Armah; Emmanuel E. Asmah
  25. Globalized Business of Japanese Multinationals in Latin America: What Trade and Investment Statistics Do Not Show By Mikio Kuwayama
  26. Diversification through trade By Caselli, Francesco; Koren, Miklos; Lisicky, Milan; Tenreyro, Silvana
  27. The turning point of global value chain's Position: The case of emerging East Asian economies By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  28. Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition By Simola, Heli
  29. Trade, Gravity and Aggregation By Holger Breinlich; Dennis Novy; Joao M.C. Santos Silva
  30. Nowcasting aggregate services trade By Alexander Jaax; Frédéric Gonzales; Annabelle Mourougane
  31. Immigrant Misallocation By Serdar Birinci; Fernando Leibovici; Kurt See
  32. The Home Market Effects in a Home-Biased Geography By Jordan J. Norris
  33. Russian Foreign Trade in 2020 By Volovik Nadezhda
  34. Customs administration By Balandina Galina
  35. Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards By Els Bekaert; Amelie F. Constant; Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen
  36. Global dynamics of GDP and trade By Abhin Kakkad; Arnab K. Ray
  37. How Non-Diamond Exports Respond to Exchange Rate Volatility in Botswana By Johane Motsatsi
  38. Multinationals, innovation and institutional context: IPR protection and distance effects By Bruno, Randolph L.; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Estrin, Saul; Petralia, Sergio
  39. Medium- and High-Tech Export and Renewable Energy Consumption: Non-Linear Evidence from the ASEAN Countries By Dinh, Cong Khai; Ngo, Quang Thanh; Nguyen, Trung Thanh
  40. China’s Mergers & Acquisitions Activity in the United States – The Case of TikTok By Tamás Peragovics
  41. Transnational corporations’ participation in the Russian economy and foreign investments regulatory policies By Simachev Yuri; Kuzyk Mikhail; Fedyunina A.
  42. Exports vs. Investment: How Public Discourse Shapes Support for External Imbalances By Federico Maria Ferrara; Jörg Haas; Andrew Peterson; Thomas Sattler
  43. The Rise of China’s Global Middle Class in International Perspective By Terry Sicular; Xiuna Yang; Bjorn Gustafsson
  44. Challenges of international business taxation in the context of digitalization By Milogolov Nikolai; Berberov A.
  45. The world market for safety syringes By Aurelio Volpe; Sara Banfi

  1. By: Sanyal, Anirban
    Abstract: The recent US-China trade war refreshed the memory of trade protectionism in the era of global integration. In this context, this paper analyzes the impact of higher trade tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other, on India, a large country having significant trade ties with both the US and China, yet not directly involved in the tariff war. Using product level data on exports and imports, the paper analyzes the implication of the tariff war on India in short run through the lens of trade diversion and identifies the differential effect of trade diversion across different product types. The analysis reveals a significant trade diversion to India from China at an aggregate level with trade elasticity of 0.5-0.7 due to US tariffs on China which points towards a substitution effect in products targeted by the US-China tariffs. Further, the paper observes a heterogeneous impact of the trade diversion across different product classifications. Particularly, India's export of easily substituted products like final goods, homogeneous goods and high elastic goods, intensified plausibly driven by higher tariffs imposed by the US on China. However the effect on these tariffs on India's import intensity remains mixed.
    Keywords: US-China Trade War,Trade Cost,Product Heterogeneity,Comparative Advantages
    JEL: F1 F12 F13 F14
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Alessio Lombini
    Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the impact of heterogeneity in non-tariff-measures (NTMs) policies on countries' global value chains (GVCs)-related trade and its backward and forward components. I firstly build a regulatory distance (RD) index, which measures the degree of dissimilarity in NTMs structures between two trade partners. By including the RD index in a structural gravity model, I then find a significant negative effect of regulatory distance on total, backward, and forward GVC-related trade. The negative impact results to be even stronger when I conduct the analysis only on manufacturing sectors. On the country dimension, I demonstrate that the effects of regulatory distance are associated with the exporters' and the importers' income levels.
    Keywords: Gravity equation, non-tariff measures, regulatory distance, trade protection, international trade, global value chains, technical regulations.
    JEL: E16 F13 F14 F15 F63 L51 O40
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Steven Brakman; Harry Garretsen; Tristan Kohl
    Abstract: The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its ‘Global Britain’ strategy, in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that ‘Global Britain’ yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that independence from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be entirely removed for each of these devolved nations conditional on a renewed trade deal with the EU.
    Keywords: Brexit, gravity model
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: We analyse the heterogeneous effects of technical regulations and safety standards embodied in non-tariff measures on foreign direct investment using global firm-level panel data of bilateral cross-border ownership relationships over the period 2008-2018. To this end, we develop a novel measure of time-varying bilateral ad valorem equivalents of sectoral non-tariff measures, which reveals that technical barriers to trade (TBTs) played a much greater role as a trade-inhibiting factor in comparison with import tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures over the period 1996-2018, with their relative importance increasing in the post-Great Recession period. Estimations using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood framework reveal the importance of non-tariff measures as a driver of foreign direct investment, with heterogeneous effects observed for the measures imposed by the host and the home country, as well as across sectors and types of non-tariff measures. Among other results, we find that an increase in the stringency of technical barriers to trade imposed by the host country is associated with higher investment in the foreign subsidiaries operating in this country, pointing to the regulatory barrier-jumping motive of foreign direct investment. The effect is much stronger for the multinational corporations operating in the information and communications technology sector.
    Keywords: FDI; non-tariff measures; ad-valorem equivalent of NTMs, TBT; SPS measures; ICT
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2021–09
  5. By: Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The WTO utilizes the trade dispute settlement mechanism in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). As a WTO member, Russia has the right to uphold its trade interests by means of this instrument.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Gianluca Orefice; Hillel Rapoport; Gianluca Santoni
    Abstract: How does immigration affect export performance? To answer this question we propose a unified empirical framework allowing to disentangle various mechanisms such as the role of networks in reducing bilateral transaction costs as well as productivity shifts arising from migration-induced knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity. While we find evidence supporting all three channels (at both the intensive and the extensive margins of trade), our framework allows to gauge their relative importance. We then focus on diversity and find stronger results in sectors characterized by more complex production processes and more intense teamwork cooperation. This is consistent with theories linking the distribution of skills to the comparative advantage of nations. The results are robust to using a theoretically-grounded IV approach combining three variations on the shift share methodology.
    Keywords: international trade, birthplace diversity, migration, productivity
    JEL: F14 F16 F22 O47
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa (DG Trade); Rueda-Cantuche, José Manuel (JRC)
    Abstract: The current COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic and unprecedented impacts on trade, and GDP worldwide and in the EU. We assess in the paper the potential export related jobs losses that would have affected European workers had not governments and the EU implemented large exceptional support packages to prevent real job losses. To this end, we use a global multi-region input output model based on the recently released FIGARO tables (Eurostat, 2021) and build a counterfactual analysis based on trade flows projections made before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Our results show that in the absence of jobs and enterprise retention measures, 6.4 million exports dependent jobs would have been at risk. Therefore, it is urgent for trade to recover quickly since millions of jobs are at stake.
    Keywords: COVID-19; EU; trade; jobs
    JEL: F13 F14 F16
    Date: 2021–09–01
  8. By: Kossi Messanh Agbekponou (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Angela Cheptea (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Karine Latouche (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: The present paper investigates the link between the participation of French agri-food firms to retailer-driven value chains and their integration in global value chains (GVCs). We propose an empirical methodology based on the econometric estimation of firms' extensive trade margins with multivariate models. We combine firm-level data from the AMADEUS database, French customs and the exhaustive list of firms certified with the private International Featured Standard (IFS) over the period 2006-2011. Our results show that firms that participate to retailer-driven value chains (IFS-certified firms) are by 8.35% more likely to integrate GVCs, i.e. jointly import and export, than other firms in the sector. This premium is primarily driven by the higher probability to export of these firms.
    Keywords: Global value chains,Retailers,Private standards,Multivariate econometric models
    Date: 2021–07–20
  9. By: Huria, Sugandha
    Abstract: Empirical estimates from various studies on impact assessment of free trade agreements show that there are limited economic gains from concluding such arrangements. It has been argued by trade negotiators of many countries that while some partners gain more from an agreement, others gain less or, even suffer from a rise in their current account deficits and overall economic losses. Even the Indian scenario is not an outlier in such a case. This question about unequal gains from an FTA has raised various policy concerns. We attempt to provide an answer to this debate by incorporating the role of the type of commodities that countries trade with each other. In an imperfectly competitive setup with three countries and two types of commodities viz. a final good and an intermediate input, our findings reveal that bilateral free trade in final goods is more welfare-enhancing for the member countries vis-à-vis bilateral free trade in intermediates. However, the former possibility is feasible only for a very small range of parametric values given the pre-requisites for ensuring the formation of an effective FTA. More specifically, we find that a horizontal FTA covering final goods becomes feasible only when the degree of market size asymmetry between the two partners is very less. On the contrary, when we emphasise on the role of vertical trade, i.e., where one of the FTA members exports intermediate inputs to the other, and imports the final good in return, we find that FTA is feasible only when the larger partner is an exporter of final goods and an importer of intermediate inputs, vis-à-vis the smaller partner. In such a case, the larger partner accrues higher gains from such a bilateral engagement. While capturing the role of tradable intermediates, we also show that in the presence of well-connected GVCs, RTAs actually become a less attractive option for enhancing trade and welfare of an economy.
    Keywords: Free Trade Agreements, Global Value Chains, Vertical Industry Structure
    JEL: F12 F15
    Date: 2020–10–28
  10. By: Pablo Delgado (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2 (UNIZAR-CITA), University of Zaragoza, Spain); Vicente Pinilla (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2 (UNIZAR-CITA), University of Zaragoza, Spain); Gema Aparicio (Independent Researcher)
    Abstract: It is well known that the expansion of international trade was one of the key elements of the first globalization. Many studies have pointed out that both supply and demand factors in order to explain this process. However, the weight that these factors could have had in the expansion of trade in different products could have been very varied. In general, a perspective that places more emphasis on the characteristics and peculiarities of each product is missing to understand how the international market for them was formed in the first globalization and the reasons for the growth of their trade. In this context, our work deal with the evolution of meat global trade from its formation during the XIX century until the World War Two. Global market trade has two highly interesting features. On the one hand, the technical difficulties involved in transport and on the other hand the almost monosopnist nature of Great Britain.
    Keywords: international trade, agribusiness trade, first globalization, great depression
    JEL: F14 N50 Q17
    Date: 2021–09
  11. By: Pablo Delgado (Department of Applied Economics and Economic History and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, IA2 (UNIZAR-CITA), University of Zaragoza, Spain)
    Abstract: The role played by the Spanish industry in the international markets during the first globalization has led to a deep discussion in the literature. Some scholars point out that, despite of weak national demand, the Spanish industrial firms chose to focus on the domestic market rather than competing in the international markets. We dispute that hypothesis by analysing Spanish exports on the margins and in a highly disaggregated manner in 1890 and 1913. We find that manufacturing firms were highly dynamic finding out several new external markets and exporting new products. Nevertheless, the new markets were characterized by low potential demand due to both size and income. Last, we use the diplomatic network per country as well as several consulate reports to propose that Spanish firms were missing many market opportunities. This could be explained by a lack of diplomacy, emigration, insufficiency of propaganda or credit restriction to export.
    Keywords: first globalization, international trade, Spanish industrialization
    JEL: F14 N63 N73
    Date: 2021–09
  12. By: Masood, Amjad; Ahmed, Junaid; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
    Abstract: In this study, we analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on bilateral trade using monthly data from January to June 2020. Imports of the OECD member states are analysed using a structural gravity model of trade estimated with the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. The analysis is conducted for total imports and for fruit and vegetables. Our findings show a significantly negative impact of the pandemic on both import measures, which is more pronounced for the perishable goods than for aggregate imports.
    Keywords: Covid-19; Bilateral Trade; Structural Gravity; PPML; OECD
    JEL: F1 F14
    Date: 2021–09–07
  13. By: Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the joint effects of ICT diffusion (composed of access, usage and skills), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study draws on data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, and the Global Consumption and Income Project for the period 1980–2019 for the analysis. The study provides evidence robust to several specifications from ordinary least squares and dynamic system GMM estimation techniques to show that: (1) FDI and ICT diffusion and corresponding components (ICT access, usage, skills) induce inclusive growth in SSA; (2) compared to its direct effect, FDI is remarkable in fostering shared growth in SSA in the presence of greater ICT diffusion, and (3) compared to ICT access and usage, ICT skills are more effective in driving inclusive growth in SSA. Overall FDI modulates ICT dynamics to engender positive synergy effects on inclusive growth. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement and the projected rise in FDI in SSA from 2022.
    Keywords: FDI; ICT Access; ICT Diffusion; ICT Skills; ICT Usage; Inclusive Growth; sub- Saharan Africa
    JEL: E23 F21 F30 L96 O55
    Date: 2021–01
  14. By: Asongu, Simplice; Yapatake Kossele, Thales; Nnanna, Joseph
    Abstract: This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative relationship between political stability and merchandise trade is not significant while the negative relationship between political stability and trade openness (exports plus imports) is significant. Hence, the findings do not validate the tested hypothesis that political stability/no violence increases trade in the sub-region. The perspective that some forms of political stability can slow down and prevent international trade is consistent with Oslon in Rise and Decline of Nations (RADON) and recent contributions to the economic development literature which have shown that not all forms of political stability are development friendly because much depends on the extent to which stability translates into, inter alia, good governance. The principal policy implication is that standards of political governance need to be boosted in order to improve the anticipated effects of political stability on trade, especially in the light of the ambitious African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Other policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Political Stability; Trade; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F52 K42 O17 O55 P16
    Date: 2021–01
  15. By: Ngo, Thanh; Nguyen, Canh
    Abstract: This paper, by exploring the enriched information in annual Vietnamese enterprise surveys from 2010 to 2015, tries to shed light on the causal effect of the various statuses of export transitions on total factor productivity occurring across 20 manufacturing sectors and during various phases of export transition. The empirical results derived from the system GMM estimation provide evidence of causal direction from export transitions to total factor productivity, after controlling for endogenous variables and taking firm heterogeneity into account. Our results indicate that export effects on productivity are highly dependent on specific manufacturing sectors, and on type of export transition. From the perspective of trade and industrial policies, while supporting the creation of new exporters, some issues related to a high level of subsidy and tax incentives by the government to every exporting firm and export-oriented unit in every manufacturing sector seem to be questionable.
    Keywords: Learning-by-exporting; total factor productivity; export persistence; export fluctuation; export striving; manufacturing sectors
    JEL: C23 D21 F14 L60
    Date: 2019–10–06
  16. By: McCully, Brett
    Abstract: Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Some have controversially linked illegal trafficking to immigrants, especially immigrants without legal status. In this paper, I use novel data on nearly 10,000 confiscations of illegal drugs in Spain to study how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. To identify the causal effect of immigrants on trafficking, I construct an instrumental variable that interacts variation in total immigrant inflows into Spain across origin countries with the fraction of immigrants inflowing into a province. I find that a 10% increase in the population of immigrants from a given origin country relative to the mean raises the likelihood of illegal importing drugs from that origin country by 0.8 percentage points. Moreover, immigrants without legal status drive illegal drug imports, while authorized immigrants drive exports. To better understand the role of legal status, I exploit an extraordinary regularization of nearly half a million immigrants in 2005. Event study estimates suggest that granting immigrants legal status results in a decline in drug imports.
    Keywords: Immigration, Drug Trafficking, Trade, Legal Stutus
    JEL: F14 F22 J15 K42
    Date: 2021–07
  17. By: Camara K. Obeng (University of Cape Coast, Ghana); Peter Y. Mwinlaaru (University of Cape Coast, Ghana); Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy)
    Abstract: Global value chain (GVC) participation has been identified as one of the means by which developing countries can attain inclusive growth yet little attention has been paid to it in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Motivated by the dearth of studies on SSA, we investigate the effect of GVC participation on inclusive growth for 19 SSA countries for the period 1991 to 2017, using the system GMM estimator. The results show that GVC participation drives inclusive growth through employment creation. We find that though SSA’s foreign value addition is less than its domestic value addition, the former’s impact on inclusive growth is higher than that of the latter. We recommend that policymakers support downstream industries to acquire technologies while incentivizing and attracting upstream industries into their countries.
    Keywords: Global Value Chain, Inclusive Growth, Domestic Value Added, Foreign Value Added, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F14 F15 F43 F6 O4 Q55
    Date: 2021–01
  18. By: Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: Motivated by the projected rebound of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) following the implementation of the AfCFTA and the finalization of the Africa Investment Protocol, we examine how FDI modulates the effects of various governance dynamics on inclusive growth in SSA. We do this by testing two hypotheses first, whether unconditionally FDI and various governance indicators (rule of law, control of corruption, regulatory quality, governance effectiveness, political stability, and voice and accountability) foster inclusive growth in SSA; and second, whether these governance dynamics engender positive synergy with FDI on inclusive growth in SSA. Using data from the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators and the World Development Indicators for the period 1990–2020, we employ several fixed effects, random effects, and the system GMM estimators for the analysis. First, we find that FDI and all our governance dynamics are significant inclusive growth enhancers in SSA. Second, though FDI amplifies the effects of all our governance dynamics on inclusive growth in SSA, governance effectiveness, voice and accountability, and political stability are keys. Policy recommendations are provided.
    Keywords: AfCFTA; Economic Integration; FDI; Governance; Inclusive Growth; Africa
    JEL: F6 F15 O43 O55 R58
    Date: 2021–01
  19. By: Sakib, Mohammad Nazmus; pande, Saikat; kumar, Rimon; Arif, Dr. Kazi mostafa
    Abstract: The main objective of this study was to find out the impact of Chinese FDI on the economic growth of Bangladesh where yearly time series data is used over a period from 1997 to 2020. To obtain those objectives, this study implies the Johansen Co-integration test and vector error correction model as statistical techniques. This study explores that there is a positive and significant long-run relationship among Chinese FDI, Total FDI, Openness of trade, and economic growth of Bangladesh but those variables have no impact on Bangladesh economic growth in the short run. These results also identify there is a long-term granger causality occurring from Chinese FDI, TFDI, and trade openness to the GDP of Bangladesh. Our estimating error correction results is -.72 which conclude that in the long run, the economy is restored around .72 percent of the previous year's disequilibrium within the model and normalized co-integrating coefficient forecast a one percent increase in CFDI and one percent increase in TFDI elicit 0.04% and 0.17% increase in GDP respectively. So that, for enhancing GDP and economic development of Bangladesh our government should influence to bring out the Chinese FDI in our country and make effective policy that can create a strong long-run relationship between two countries.
    Keywords: Chinese FDI, Cointegration, error correction model, Bangladesh economic growth
    JEL: E22 E27 O1
    Date: 2021–03–01
  20. By: Björn Brey
    Abstract: Did recent technological change, in the form of automation, affect immigration policy in the United States? I argue that as automation shifted employment from routine to manual occupations at the bottom end of the skill distribution, it increased competition between natives and immigrants, consequently leading to increased support for restricting low-skill immigration. I formalise this hypothesis theoretically in a partial equilibrium model with constant elasticity of substitution in which technology leads to employment polarization, and policy makers can vote on immigration legislation. I empirically evaluate these predictions by analysing voting on low-skill immigration bills in the House of Representatives during the period 1973-2014. First, I find evidence that policy makers who represent congressional districts with a higher share of manual employment are more likely to support restricting low-skill immigration. Second, I provide empirical evidence that representatives of districts which experienced more manual-biased technological change are more likely to support restricting low-skill immigration. Finally, I provide evidence that this did not affect trade policy, which is in line with automation having increased employment in occupations exposed to low-skill immigration, but not those exposed to international trade.
    Keywords: political economy, voting, immigration policy, technological change
    JEL: F22 J61 K37 O30
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Miriam Kohl; Philipp M. Richter
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of a unilateral reform of the redistribution policy in an economy open to international trade. We set up a general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous agents allowing for country asymmetries. We show that under international trade compared to autarky, a unilateral tax increase leads to a less pronounced decline in aggregate real income in the reforming country, while income inequality is reduced to a larger extent for sufficiently small initial tax rates. We highlight as a key mechanism a tax-induced reduction in the market size of the reforming country relative to its trading partner, resulting in a firm selection effect towards exporting. From the perspective of a non-reforming trading partner, the unilateral redistribution policy reform resembles a unilateral increase in trade costs leading to a deterioration of terms-of-trade and a decline in both aggregate real income and inequality.
    Keywords: income inequality, redistribution, international trade, heterogeneous firms
    JEL: D31 F12 F16 H24
    Date: 2021
  22. By: Italo Colantone; Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano; Piero Stanig
    Abstract: We review the literature on the globalization backlash, seen as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. Using newly assembled data for 23 advanced democracies, we document a protectionist and isolationist shift in electorates, legislatures, and executives from the mid-1990s onwards. This is associated with a noticeable protectionist shift in trade policy –although with some notable nuances– especially since the financial crisis of 2008. We discuss the economics of the backlash. From a theoretical perspective, we highlight how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when taking into account the ‘social footprint’ of globalization. Then, we review the empirical literature on the drivers of the backlash. Two main messages emerge from our analysis: (1) globalization is a significant driver of the backlash, by means of the distributional consequences entailed by rising trade exposure; yet (2) the backlash is only partly determined by trade. Technological change, crisis-driven fiscal austerity, immigration, and cultural concerns are found to play an important role in creating politically consequential cleavages. Looking ahead, we discuss possible future developments, with specific focus on the issue of social mobility.
    Keywords: globalization, social footprint, backlash
    JEL: F10
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy)
    Abstract: The debate on the need for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries to foster inclusive growth has intensified following the coming into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic. A conspicuous lacuna in the literature is a lack of rigorous empirical work(s) exploring: (1) the joint effect of economic integration and resource allocation, and (2) social equity policies on inclusive growth in SSA. Using data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and the Global Consumption and Income Project (1980–2019) for 43 SSA countries, I provide evidence robust to several econometric techniques the fixed-effect, random-effect, and the system generalized method of moments estimators to show that: (1) though economic integration induces inclusive growth, the effect is higher in the presence of greater financial deepening and productive government expenditure; (2) relative to economic integration, social equity policies are rather remarkable in enhancing inclusive growth. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the AfCFTA and the reversals of welfare gains due to the coronavirus pandemic.
    Keywords: AfCFTA, Economic Integration, Financial Deepening, Globalisation, Inclusive Growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Social Protection, Social Inclusion
    JEL: E6 F14 F15 F6 H5 O55
    Date: 2021–01
  24. By: Isaac K. Ofori (University of Insubria, Varese, Italy); Mark K. Armah (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana); Emmanuel E. Asmah (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana)
    Abstract: Policy recommendations for building resilient and all-inclusive societies post COVID-19 pandemic continue to dominate the media and research landscapes. However, rigorous empirical content backing such claims, particularly, on both poverty and income inequality, is hard to find. Motivated by the bleak outlook of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as driven primarily by the floundering hydrocarbon sector, vulnerable employment, and low foreign direct investment, we analyse the poverty and income inequality effects of globalisation and resource allocation in the region. Using data from the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Database for the period 1990–2019, we provide estimates robust to several econometric techniques the pooled least square, fixed effect, random effect, and the system generalized method of moments estimators to show that: (1) while economic globalisation reduces both poverty and income inequality, social globalisation matters only for income inequality in MENA; (2) economic globalisation is remarkable in reducing income inequality through resource allocation. Policy recommendations are provided in the light of the geopolitical fragility and rise in social globalisation of the region.
    Keywords: Economic Integration, Financial Deepening, GMM, MENA, Globalisation, Inequality, Poverty
    JEL: F14 F15 F6 I3 O53
    Date: 2021–01
  25. By: Mikio Kuwayama (Research Fellow of Kobe University Research Institute for Economics and Business (RIEB) and Managing Director of the Japan Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (JALAC).)
    Abstract: China has displaced Japan as the most important Asian trading partner for the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region since the turn of the century. However, this rather pessimistic view of the Japan-LAC commercial relationship based on bilateral trade statistics drastically changes when business activities of Japanese subsidiaries and affiliates (S&As) operating in the LAC region are considered. Extrapolating from the annual surveys of “Basic Survey on Overseas Business Activities” conducted by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), this paper brings to light highly globalized and multi-faceted business operations by Japanese multinational companies operating in LAC, the scale of which goes far beyond the magnitude indicated by Japan’s official trade and investment statistics. Notably, a significant part of their global business is exported to, or sourced from, third countries, which significantly underestimates the scale of trade and investment by these S&As in the LAC region. At the same time, almost half of their sales are directed to domestic/local markets of LAC countries, whereas sales back to Japan are minimal. This paper also evaluates the Japanese S&As performance in LAC with that in other regions (the ASEAN countries in particular), with respect to: 1) industrial/sectoral distribution of their sales and procurements, 2) export orientation, and 3) capital investment, R&D expenditure, and ordinary profit. The paper also points out several distinctive features of S&As business in Brazil and Mexico, their two major host countries in the region.
    Date: 2021–09
  26. By: Caselli, Francesco; Koren, Miklos; Lisicky, Milan; Tenreyro, Silvana
    Abstract: A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and show that in recent decades international trade has reduced economic volatility for most countries.
    Keywords: 313164; 240852
    JEL: E32 F41
    Date: 2020–02–01
  27. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This paper aims to examine the dynamic process of participation in global value chains (GVCs) along with development stages in emerging East Asian economies by using the GVC indexes and the UNCTAD-Eora Global Value Chain Database. The main research focus of this study is to investigate a turning point of the GVC position from a downstream-driven participation to an upstream-driven one, which reflects an industrial upgrading from a buyer position for industrial inputs to a supplier position for them. The empirical estimation could verify the U-shaped curve in the combination between the GVC position index and per capita GDP, and identify a turning point of the GVC position in the reasonable range of per capita GDP. The estimation result also showed variability of the turning points in per capita GDP among the sectors: 3,668 US dollars in total industry, 6,088 US dollars in manufacturing sector, and 9,510 US dollars in machinery industry.
    Keywords: Global value chains (GVCs), Turning point, Emerging East Asian economies, GVC position index, U-shaped curve
    JEL: F12 F14 O53
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examineimport trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis periods related to covid-19 and the global financial crisis in 2008–2009. As during the global financial crisis, we find that import-intensity-adjusted demand is a key factor contributing to trade developments during the covid-19 crisis. The analysis also reveals substantial differences between the current crisis and the global financial crisis. Trade decline during the global financial crisis was heavily investment-led. In the current crisis, consumption and import demand from the service sector have had much larger roles. The recovery of trade has been notably faster during the covid-19 crisis and led by exports as opposed to the much more important role played by domestic demand during the global financial crisis.
    JEL: F10 F14 F17 G01
    Date: 2021–09–21
  29. By: Holger Breinlich (University of Surrey); Dennis Novy (University of Warwick); Joao M.C. Santos Silva (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: Gravity regressions are a common tool in the empirical international trade literature and serve an important function for many policy purposes. We study to what extent micro-level parameters can be recovered from gravity regressions estimated with aggregate data. We show that estimation of gravity equations in their original multiplicative form via Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) is more robust to aggregation than estimation of log-linearized gravity equations via ordinary least squares (OLS). In the leading case where regressors do not vary at the micro level, PPML estimates obtained with aggregate data have a clear interpretation as trade-weighted averages of micro-level parameters that is not shared by OLS estimates. However, when regressors vary at the micro level, using disaggregated data is essential because in this case not even PPML can recover parameters of interest. We illustrate our results with an application to Baier and Bergstrand’s (2007) influential study of the effects of trade agreements on trade flows. We examine how their findings change when estimation is performed at different levels of aggregation, and explore the consequences of aggregation for predicting the effects of trade agreements.
    JEL: C23 C43 F14 F15 F17
    Date: 2021–09
  30. By: Alexander Jaax; Frédéric Gonzales; Annabelle Mourougane
    Abstract: The increasing importance of services trade in the global economy contrasts with the lack of timely data to monitor recent developments. The nowcasting models developed in this paper are aimed at providing insights into current changes in total services trade, as recorded in monthly statistics of the G7 countries. Combining machine-learning techniques and dynamic factor models, the methodology exploits traditional data and Google Trends search data. No single model outperforms the others, but a weighted average of the best models combining machine-learning with dynamic factor models seems to be a promising avenue. The best models improve one-step ahead predictive performance relative to a simple benchmark by 30-35% on average across G7 countries and trade flows. Nowcasting models are estimated to have captured about 67% of the fall in services exports due to the COVID-19 shock and 60% of the fall in imports on average across G7 economies.
    Keywords: Dynamic factor models, G7 economies, Machine learning
    JEL: C4 C22 F17
    Date: 2021–09–23
  31. By: Serdar Birinci; Fernando Leibovici; Kurt See
    Abstract: We quantify the barriers that impede the integration of immigrants into foreign la-bor markets and investigate their aggregate implications. We develop a model of occupational choice with natives and immigrants of multiple types whose decisions are subject to wedges which distort their allocation across occupations. We esti-mate the model to match salient features of U.S. and cross-country individual-level data. We ?nd that there are sizable GDP gains from removing the wedges faced by immigrants in U.S. labor markets, accounting for approximately one-?fth of the overall economic contribution of immigrants to the U.S. economy. These e?ects arise from both increased ?ows from non-participation to predominantly manual jobs as well as from reallocation within the market sector that raises productivity in non-routine cognitive jobs. We contrast our ?ndings for the U.S. with estimates for 11 high-income countries and document substantial di?erences in the magnitude of im-migrant wedges across countries. Importantly, we ?nd di?erences in the distribution of immigrant wedges across occupations lead to substantial variation in the gains from removing immigrant misallocation, even among countries with similar average degrees of distortions.
    JEL: J24 J31 J61
    Date: 2021–04
  32. By: Jordan J. Norris (Division of Social Science)
    Abstract: A demand-side mechanism for international trade, the Home Market Effect (HME), predicts a more-than-proportional relationship between domestic expenditure and domestic production. Yet, since its inception in the 1980s by Paul Krugman, this theoretical result has only been shown to be generally valid in two-location models. I prove that the HME is maintained in an arbitrary number of locations provided the geography of trade is home-biased: the majority of domestic sales go to domestic consumers. Intuitively, without home bias, increasing domestic expenditure can actually benefit foreign production more, thus causing domestic production to rise by less, violating the more-than-proportional relationship. This result has been overlooked until now because in standard two location models all geographies are necessarily home-biased.
    Date: 2021–09
  33. By: Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to the world economy and global commodity markets. The COVID-19 containment measures have taken a toll on economic activity particularly in Q2 2020 when the majority of G20 countries demonstrated an unprecedented drop in real GDP. In relation to G20 as a whole, GDP decreased by a record 6.9% which markedly exceeded a decline by 1.6% recorded in Q1 2019 at the height of the financial crisis.2 China was the only G20 nation exhibiting in Q2 2020 economic growth by 11.5% which was due to the fact that China was the first to exit the crisis. All other G20 economies reported contraction of GDP by 11.8% on average in Q2 2020 when the pandemic fallout was more pronounced.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2021
  34. By: Balandina Galina (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The 2020 was the final year for implementing fundamental policy documents that determined the development vector of the customs authorities of the Russian Federation in the expiring decade, i.e. the RF FCS Comprehensive Development Program until 2020 and the Development Strategy of the Customs Service of the Russian Federation until 2020.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation
    JEL: F10 F13
    Date: 2021
  35. By: Els Bekaert; Amelie F. Constant; Killian Foubert; Ilse Ruyssen
    Abstract: Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique individual-level Gallup World Polls data, a random utility model, and a multinomial logit we model the aspirations or stated preferences of immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host countries’ level of economic development.
    Keywords: economics of immigrants, geographic labor mobility, public policy, microeconomic behaviour, underlying principles, international migration, large data sets, modelling and analysis
    JEL: J15 J61 J68 D01 F22 C55
    Date: 2021
  36. By: Abhin Kakkad; Arnab K. Ray
    Abstract: We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made available by the World Bank, we predict the maximum values of the growth of GDP and trade, as well as the duration over which exponential growth can be sustained. We set up the correlated growth of GDP and trade as the phase solutions of an autonomous second-order dynamical system. GDP and trade are related to each other by a power law, whose exponent differentiates the six national economies into two types. Under conducive conditions for economic growth, our conclusions have general validity.
    Date: 2021–09
  37. By: Johane Motsatsi (Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-diamond exports in Botswana using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model used quarterly data for the period 1995-2018, to estimate both the long and short run dynamics. The estimated results show that real GDP in the non-diamond sector, GDP growth of OECD countries, transport investment and water & electricity investment have a positive impact on non-diamond exports. While the lending interest rate, inflation differentials, exchange rate volatility and misalignment impact non-diamond exports negatively. The findings indicate that the coefficients with respect to the exchange rate volatility in both models are relatively low, suggesting that it has not had harmful impacts on non-diamond exports. This reflects the emphasis given to a stable and competitive exchange rate that will attract increased foreign demand which, as a result, could lead to export diversification. However, Botswana’s export structure is still undiversified, despite efforts made to diversify the sector. To achieve the national objectives of sustainable export and economic diversification, the policy should continue encouraging a stable and competitive exchange rate. Other policies intended to boost export growth should focus on: expanding the production base of the non-diamond sector, committing more investment in the transport sector, and improving water & electricity infrastructure.
    Keywords: Non-diamond exports; Exchange rate volatility; Botswana
    Date: 2020–03
  38. By: Bruno, Randolph L.; Crescenzi, Riccardo; Estrin, Saul; Petralia, Sergio
    Abstract: We characterise the knowledge production process whereby the inventive capabilities of the firm generate innovation output in highly inventive multinational enterprises (MNEs). We explore the sensitivity of this relationship to the strength of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection across the MNEs R&D subsidiaries. We argue that MNE innovative performance will be enhanced when the firm’s R&D activities are based in locations where IPR protection is stronger. Moreover, when considering the internal geography of the MNEs R&D activities, innovation performance depends on the distance between the home and host country IPR regime. Thus, innovation performance is worse as the difference between home and host IPR regimes increases. Finally, we explore asymmetries in this relationship, in particular that the deterioration is more marked when MNEs locate their R&D activities in host economies with IPR protection significantly less strict than in their home country. We test these ideas using a unique new dataset about the most innovative MNEs in the world, an unbalanced panel of around 900 MNEs observed for the period 2004 to 2013 and find strong support for all our hypotheses.
    Keywords: multinationals; innovation; IPR protection; institutional distance; patents; inventive capabilities; 639633-MASSIVE-ERC-2014-STG; 822781-GROWINPRO; Internal OA fund
    JEL: R14 J01 L81
    Date: 2021–07–19
  39. By: Dinh, Cong Khai; Ngo, Quang Thanh; Nguyen, Trung Thanh
    Abstract: Sustaining economic growth while reducing dependence on fossil fuels remains a challenge for our world to fight against climate change and therefore finding a way to promote economic growth and increase renewable energy use is needed. This paper uses a 22-year panel dataset (1994– 2015) of 9 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations provided by the World Bank World Development Indicators to examine the impact of medium- and high-tech export on renewable energy use. We employ a fixed-effects regression model with the Driscoll–Kraay nonparametric covariance matrix estimator to account for sectoral and temporal dependence. We also control for inflation, employment, population growth, and gross domestic product per capita in our estimations. Our results demonstrate a U-shaped association between medium- and high-tech export and renewable energy consumption of these economies. The results propose that enhancing medium- and high-tech export could be a feasible solution for promoting renewable energy consumption.
    Keywords: renewable energy; medium- and high-tech export; economic growth; employment; inflation; ASEAN
    JEL: E0
    Date: 2021–07–22
  40. By: Tamás Peragovics (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)
    Abstract: One of the protagonists of globalization in the past decade has been China. Its economic and financial footprint has deepened across the globe, and its companies are active in all industries, with few countries left untouched by such interest. A key instrument in this expansion are mergers and acquisitions (M&A) projects pursued by Chinese companies, many of which are focused on technologically advanced, and thus politically sensitive, businesses in Western countries. This expansion is fueled in large part by China’s Go Global strategy, initiated in 1999, and, more recently, the Made in China 2025 campaign. The US has drawn considerable interest from Chinese companies since the 2010s, many of which are aimed to buy into key American businesses. This working paper discusses Chinese M&A activities in the US during this period, focusing on the political obstacles and regulatory difficulties they encounter. In so doing, the study demonstrates that the American M&A market showed more receptivity towards Chinese projects in the first half of the 2010s, while it became more politically charged after 2016, in large part due to the steady deterioration of ties between Beijing and Washington. The case of TikTok and other high-profile Chinese businesses are used to illustrate these developments.
    Keywords: China, USA, mergers, acquisitions, TikTok
    JEL: G34 G11 P33 P45
    Date: 2021–04
  41. By: Simachev Yuri (RANEPA); Kuzyk Mikhail (RANEPA); Fedyunina A. (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Foreign companies’ declining interest in the Russian economy in the 2010s was accompanied by rather cautious activities of foreign investors which had already entered the Russian market. Sluggishness of foreign companies’ activities in Russia can be substantiated not only by slowdown of economic growth rates, but also a lack of progress in liberalization of foreign direct investments regulation. To rekindle investment activities in the Russian economy again, it is necessary to revise investment policies, switch over to the single nondiscriminatory policy in respect of foreign and Russian investors and combine the policy aimed at underpinning mid-sized projects with the one aimed at supporting investments in strategically important sectors, including fast-growing industries and short-term cycle sectors.
    Keywords: Russian economy, digital economy, corporate governance
    JEL: F3
    Date: 2021
  42. By: Federico Maria Ferrara (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Jörg Haas (Hertie School of Governance [Berlin]); Andrew Peterson (Poitiers UFR LL - Université de Poitiers - UFR Lettres et langues - Université de Poitiers, TECHNÉ - EA 6316 - Technologies Numériques pour l'éducation - Université de Poitiers); Thomas Sattler (UNIGE - Université de Genève)
    Abstract: The economic imbalances that characterize the world economy have unequally distributed costs and benefits. That raises the question how countries could run long-term external surpluses and deficits without significant opposition against the policies that generate them. We show that political discourse helps to secure public support for these policies and the resulting economic outcomes. First, a content analysis of 32,000 newspaper articles finds that the dominant interpretations of current account balances in Australia and Germany concur with very distinct perspectives: external surpluses are seen as evidence of competitiveness in Germany, while external deficits are interpreted as evidence of attractiveness for investments in Australia. Second, survey experiments in both countries suggest that exposure to these diverging interpretations has a causal effect on citizens' support for their country's economic strategy. Political discourse, thus, is crucial to provide the societal foundation of national growth strategies.
    Keywords: survey experiments,text analysis,trade,capital flows,ideas,public opinion
    Date: 2021
  43. By: Terry Sicular; Xiuna Yang; Bjorn Gustafsson
    Abstract: Defining the ‘global middle class’ as being neither poor nor rich in the developed world, we estimate the size of the global middle class in China and 33 other countries and analyze China’s expanding middle class in international perspective. China’s global middle class has grown rapidly and has been catching up with that in developed countries. By 2018 China’s global middle class constituted 25 percent of China’s population; in absolute size it was nearly double the size of the global middle class in the US and similar in size to that in Europe. Cross-country analysis of the relationship between the middle-class population share versus GDP per capita reveals an inverted-U pattern. China is not an outlier from the cross-country pattern, but the speed with which its middle-class has expanded is unusual. The only other countries with similarly large, rapid expansions of the middle class are transition economies.
    JEL: D31 O15 O53 P3
    Date: 2021–07
  44. By: Milogolov Nikolai (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Berberov A. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The current system of international taxation does not result in a fair distribution of the tax base between countries in a digital environment violating the principle of taxation in accordance with the added value created in the particular country. In the absence of international consensus, countries reform their tax systems aimed to collect taxes in the digital economy unilaterally by imposing Digital Services Tax (DST). By their nature, being indirect, these taxes (DST) are collected on the turnover of foreign digital companies in the market country (the country of the source of income).
    Keywords: Russian economy, taxation, international business taxation
    JEL: H2 H24 H25
    Date: 2021
  45. By: Aurelio Volpe (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Sara Banfi (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: The CSIL Report The world market for safety syringes provides a comprehensive market intelligence on the global level of safety syringes. The findings of the Report focus on safety syringes, but during the analysis other types of syringes have been considered. The research aims at better understanding the global market for safety syringes, its international competitive landscape, and the new opportunities arising from the evolution of its regulation frameworks and the COVID-19 outbreaks. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: Europe (European Union + UK); USA; Canada; Asia-Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand); Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and United Arab Emirates); South Americ (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela); Others (Rest of the world). LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK: The Report lists the main injection safety legislations signed by governments and international organizations, which are leading the transition from traditional to safety-engineered syringes in health care settings in order to reduce needle stick injuries. MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS: Syringes imports and exports are broken down by country and by geographical area of destination/origin (the time frame considered is 2009-2019); The global consumption of syringes is reported in volume and value and it is broken down by geographical area, by application and product (the time frame considered is: 2010-2019), in this section is estimated the size of the market for medical and surgical syringes for human applications and the market for safety syringes (value and volume, 2019); The forecasted evolution of the demand for medical and surgical syringes as well as for safety syringes is provided in volume for the years 2018-2025. COMPETITIVE SYSTEM: An analysis of the leading players selling safety syringes is provided. Sales data, market shares and short profiles of the leading players in the safety syringes industry are also available. An APPENDIX on the Covid-19 vaccine pre-purchases across the globe and total number of COVID-19 vaccinations administered in 2020 is also included.
    JEL: L11 L22 L68
    Date: 2021–01

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