nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2020‒08‒31
25 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Non-tariff Trade Policy Analysis: An Ex-post Assessment of the EU-Korea Agreement By Julia Grübler; Oliver Reiter
  2. Characterising Non-tariff Trade Policy By Julia Grübler; Oliver Reiter
  3. Import Substitution Industrialization [ISI]: An approach to Global Economic Sustainability By Jackson, Emerson Abraham; Jabbie, Mohamed
  4. Different Antidumping Legislations within the WTO: What Can We Learn from China's Varying Market Economy Status? By Alexander Sandkamp; Erdal Yalcin
  5. Service characteristics and the choice between exports and FDI: Evidence from Belgian firms By Leo Sleuwaegen; Peter M. Smith
  6. International Trade and Labor Market Integration of Immigrants By Lodefalk, Magnus; Sjöholm, Fredrik; Tang, Aili
  7. The Structure of Multinational Firms' International Activities By Ronald B. Davies; James R. Markusen
  8. Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behavior to countries under sanctions By Crozet, Matthieu; Hinz, Julian; Stammann, Amrei Luise; Wanner, Joschka
  9. Global Sourcing under Uncertainty By Gervais, Antoine
  10. The Prospect Of ECOWAS Currency Union On Intra-Regional Trade By Abban, Stanley; Ofori-Abebrese, Grace
  11. Global Value Chains and Productivity: Micro Evidence from Estonia By Hang T. Banh; Philippe Wingender; Cheikh A. Gueye
  12. China US Trade War: Will it impact on Latin American Countries? By Adriana Peluffo
  13. International Friends and Enemies By Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding
  14. Labor Market Flexibility and Inward Foreign Direct Investment By KAMATA Isao
  15. Success in sectoral export promotion and economic and environmental indicators: a multisectoral modelling analysis for the UK By Grant Allan; Christos Barkoumas; Andrew Ross; Ashank Sinha
  16. Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade By Georgiadis, Georgios; Le Mezo, Helena; Mehl, Arnaud; Casas, Camila; Boz, Emine; Nguyen, Tra; Gopinath, Gita
  17. Evaluating the Impact of Export Finance Support on Firm-Level Export Performance : Evidence from Pakistan By Defever,Fabrice Fernand; Riano,Alejandro; Varela,Gonzalo J.
  18. Playing Easy or Playing Hard to Get: When and How to Attract FDI By Thomas A. Gresik; Dirk Schindler; Guttorm Schjelderup
  19. The Direct and Indirect Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Market Outcomes By Martina Magli
  20. Trick or treat? The Brexit effect on immigrants’ wellbeing in the UK By Rienzo, Cinzia
  21. Migration and Inequalities around the Mediterranean Sea By Björn Nilsson; Racha Ramadan
  22. India-Africa Partnership in Trade and Investment: With Focus on the Agriculture and Food Sector By Gulati, Ashok; Sandip, Das
  23. Brexit, collective uncertainty and migration decisions By Auer, Daniel; Tetlow, Daniel
  24. Does Emigration Drain Entrepreneurs? By Massimo Anelli; Gætano Basso; Giuseppe Ippedico; Giovanni Peri
  25. Globalization and Female Economic Participation in MINT and BRICS countries By Tolulope T. Osinubi; Simplice A. Asongu

  1. By: Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Many different approaches have developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). Moving on from models using simple dummy variables, today a range of databases can capture different aspects of NTMs and FTAs. Some assess the depth of FTAs by extracting information from legal texts. Other data sources are based on surveys, on complaints by trading partners at the World Trade Organization (WTO) or notifications by companies or countries. This paper uses a gravity model to assess the value added of information on FTAs and NTMs by evaluating ex-post their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, the first ‘second-generation’ FTA of the EU, applied since 2011. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the FTA components, no extra trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The message from the evolution of NTMs differs considerably according to the indicator used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. On the aggregate country level, provisions on investments exhibit a particularly strong positive effect, while regulations on intellectual property rights seem to hamper bilateral trade. Most specifications, furthermore, point to a negative effect of differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.
    Keywords: Trade policy, non-tariff measures, free trade agreement, ex-post assessment, EU, South Korea, gravity model, TBT, SPS, FTA, WTO
    JEL: C52 C54 E17 F13 F14 F68 O24
    Date: 2020–08
  2. By: Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Starting in the 1960s with the Kennedy Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), non-tariff measures (NTMs) have been replacing tariffs continuously as the core element of trade negotiations. Today they take centre stage in all EU trade agreements with industrialised and emerging economies. By matching product codes to the rich data of NTM notifications to the World Trade Organization and complementary information provided by the Temporary Trade Barriers Database, we provide a valuable open data source for trade policy analysis. Using data for 148 NTM-imposing economies for the period 1995-2019, we describe the evolution of different types of NTMs along countries and sectors, with a special focus on NTMs implemented by the EU. The analysis of our data, paired with comparisons with other sources, shows the merits and shortcomings of the WTO's service in providing transparency over members' trade policies.
    Keywords: non-tariff measures, trade policy, trade barriers, database, open data, WTO, I-TIP, TTBD
    JEL: F13 F14 F68 O24
    Date: 2020–08
  3. By: Jackson, Emerson Abraham; Jabbie, Mohamed
    Abstract: Globalisation has over the years brought about openness, thus creating an inextricable link among countries through various channels, including trade and investment. Consequently, there has been a substantial expansion in trade in goods and services and the flow of foreign direct investment between developed and developing countries. Even though, both have benefitted from this global openness, the balance of benefits is mainly tilted to developed countries, reinforced by the fact that developing countries have been importing more and exporting less to these countries – a reflection of the under-developed state of their industrial sector, which is evident in their export of mainly unrefined or primary products, with little or no value addition taking place. This gives attestation to the presence of an insignificant import substitution-oriented manufacturing activity in such countries, which have rendered them heavily reliant on imports for their survival – by extension making them highly susceptible to external risks and shocks. This brought about the inception of ISI, which originated from as early as in the 1930s through into the 1960s in Latin America and some parts of Asia and Africa – a notion that was meant to incorporate three stages, namely ‘domestic production of previously imported non-durable consumer goods, extension of production to a wide-range of consumer durables and complex manufactured items and finally, exporting of manufactured goods, with the vision of diversifying to multiple range of items’ (Bussell,, n/d).
    Keywords: Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI), Economic Sustainability, Globalization, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
    JEL: O12 O14 O25
    Date: 2020–01–03
  4. By: Alexander Sandkamp; Erdal Yalcin
    Abstract: This paper examines how varying antidumping methodologies applied within the WTO differ in the extent to which they reduce targeted exports. We show that antidumping duties, on average, hit Chinese exporters harder than those of other targeted countries. This difference can be traced back in part to China’s non-market economy status, which affects the way AD duties are calculated. Furthermore, we show that the type of imposed duty matters, as ad-valorem duties affect exports differently compared to specific duties or duties conditional on the export price. Overall, however, antidumping duties remain effective in reducing imports independent of market economy status.
    Keywords: antidumping, China, trade, market economy status, World Trade Organization
    JEL: F10 F13 F21
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Leo Sleuwaegen (MSI, KU Leuven , Belgium, Naamsestraat 69, 3000 B Leuven); Peter M. Smith (MSI, KU Leuven , Belgium, Naamsestraat 69, 3000 B Leuven)
    Abstract: The decision to serve foreign markets through exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) has been studied within proximity-concentration models of location, mainly in the context of trade in goods. This paper adapts these models to account for the specific nature of services that are traded across borders. We show how services can be characterized by a bundle of attributes that collectively describe the service. These attributes are then tested to show how they affect the choice between exports and FDI using service-level data for firms in Belgium selling services abroad. Three different types of characteristic are shown to affect the export versus FDI decision: intangibility, the searchexperience-credence framework and the requirement for either the supplier or the client to physically move to the point of production.
    Keywords: Services; International Trade; Exports; Foreign Direct Investment; Service characteristics.
    JEL: F14 M16 L8
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: Lodefalk, Magnus (The Ratio Institute); Sjöholm, Fredrik (Lund University); Tang, Aili (Örebro University)
    Abstract: We examine if international trade improves labor market integration of immigrants in Sweden. Immigrants participate substantially less than natives in the labor market. However, trading with a foreign country is expected to increase the demand for immigrants from that country. By hiring immigrants, a firm may access foreign knowledge and networks needed to overcome information frictions in trade. Using granular longitudinal matched employer–employee data and an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the causal effects of a firm’s bilateral trade on employment and wages of immigrants from that country. We find a positive, yet heterogeneous, effect of trade on immigrant employment but no effect on immigrant wages.
    Keywords: Export; Import; Immigrants; Employment; Wages
    JEL: F16 F22 J21 J31 J61
    Date: 2020–08–20
  7. By: Ronald B. Davies; James R. Markusen
    Abstract: The structure of a multinational firm, that is how its affiliates relate to one another, is critical for understanding where multinationals locate, how policy affects them, and their resilience to localized shocks. Here, we review the two main structures – market-seeking horizontal and cost-difference exploiting vertical investment – prevalent in the literature. In addition, we use data (primarily from the US) to examine which of these structures seems to dominate the data. This includes a novel use of measures of global value chain positioning of a country's industries. In each case, the data suggests a dominant role for horizontal investment. We conclude with a discussion of the challenge that intangibles play in multinational data and point towards potentially fertile areas for future research.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; Multinational corporations; Horizontal FDI; Vertical FDI; Global value chains
    JEL: F23 F14
    Date: 2020–02
  8. By: Crozet, Matthieu; Hinz, Julian; Stammann, Amrei Luise; Wanner, Joschka
    Abstract: How do exporting firms react to sanctions? Specifically, which firms are willing - or capable - to serve the market of a sanctioned country? We investigate this question for four sanctions episodes drawing on recent econometric advances in bias-corrected dynamic high-dimensional fixed effects binary choice estimators and monthly data on the universe of French exporting firms. We find that the introduction of new sanctions significantly lowers firm-level probabilities of serving the sanctioned markets, while, importantly, the lifting of sanctions is not found to yield symmetric trade recovery effects. Additionally, sanctions effects are very heterogeneous. Firms that depend more on trade finance instruments are more strongly affected, while prior experience in the sanctioned country considerably softens the blow of sanctions, and firms can be partly immune to the sanctions effect if they are specialized in serving "crisis countries". Finally, we find suggestive evidence for sanction avoidance by exporting indirectly via neighboring countries.
    Keywords: sanctions,trade,foreign policy,extensive margin,firm behaviour
    JEL: F51 F14 F13 F52
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Gervais, Antoine
    Abstract: This paper develops a general equilibrium model of international trade in homogenous intermediate inputs. In the model, trade between countries is driven exclusively by uncertainty in the delivery of inputs. Because their managers are risk-averse, final good firms contract with multiple suppliers located in different countries in an attempt to decrease the variability of their profits. The analysis shows that risk diversification provides an incentive for international trade over and above such reasons as comparative advantages (emphasized in classical models of international trade) and economies of scale (emphasized in new trade models), and highlights a new channel – a reduction in uncertainty – through which trade liberalization increases welfare.
    Keywords: Intermediate inputs, international trade, sourcing, trade liberalization, uncertainty.
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2020–08–06
  10. By: Abban, Stanley; Ofori-Abebrese, Grace
    Abstract: Currency union is viewed as a panacea for struggling economies with West Africa in their quest to adopt a common currency. However, despite the rattling efforts and measures laid down, the policy seems unrealistic and deemed to fail. The study empirically evaluates whether adopting a common currency in the ECOWAS sub-region will have a substantial impact on trade using data spanning from 2000 to 2017. Also, the study investigates whether adopting a common currency will have a trade creation or trade diversion effect. The study further estimates the trade potential of the ECOWAS sub-region. The study deployed the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) which is the most consistent estimator of the gravity model of trade and addresses issues about panel data. The study showed that adopting a common currency will ensure trade hence economic growth by eliminating exchange rate volatility among member-states. In the background, the sub-region will inure economic and other benefits with initiation of the policy.
    Keywords: Currency union, trade potential, trade creation, trade diversion, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML)
    JEL: F1 F13 F14 F15 F17 F4 O1 O11
    Date: 2019–11–29
  11. By: Hang T. Banh; Philippe Wingender; Cheikh A. Gueye
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.
    Date: 2020–07–03
  12. By: Adriana Peluffo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: This article gives a brief overview of the current trade war between China and the US, pointing out its main but multiple causes that lead to the current trade war. Then we take a look to the likely effects on the contenders. Finally, we analyze briefly the probable effects not only on the China and the US, but as well as on the world as a whole, and for Latin American countries in particular.
    Keywords: trade war, China, US, LACs
    JEL: F1 F51 F53
    Date: 2020–05
  13. By: Benny Kleinman; Ernest Liu; Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: We develop sufficient statistics of countries' bilateral income and welfare exposure to foreign productivity shocks that are exact for small shocks in the class of models with a constant trade elasticity. For large shocks, we characterize the quality of the approximation, and show it to be almost exact. We compute these sufficient statistics for over 140 countries from 1970-2012. We show that our exposure measures depend on market-size, cross-substitution and cost of living effects. As countries become greater economic friends in terms of welfare exposure, they become greater political friends in terms of United Nations voting and strategic rivalries.
    JEL: F14 F15 F50
    Date: 2020–07
  14. By: KAMATA Isao
    Abstract: Are inward FDI and its increase related to the labor market conditions in the host economy? This is still an open question, as the literature to date provides mixed evidence. This paper addresses this question on the debated relationship between inward FDI and the host country's domestic labor conditions empirically by testing whether the labor market flexibility—or strictness—in a host economy contributes to an increase in inward FDI, using publicly accessible macro-level data. The results of a set of estimations show that a host country with relaxed employment protection tends to attract more inward FDI, which is consistent with the findings in some recent studies. The analysis also indicates that the detected relationship between more flexible employment protection and FDI increases should chiefly be the case in "traditional" OECD members but may not apply to other countries.
    Date: 2020–06
  15. By: Grant Allan (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Christos Barkoumas (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Andrew Ross (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Ashank Sinha (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: UK policymakers are seeking to use the levers of a more active industrial policy to develop economic opportunities, including through new and expanded trading opportunities. At the same time, the UK Government has committed to a net zero greenhouse gas emissions target by 2050. While increases in exports are expected to raise economic activity, it is unclear what impact this will have on UK energy use and emissions. With a main plank of the UK strategy the development of _Sector Deals", it is unknown whether this is also true for specific industrial sectors. We examine this empirically in a multisectoral Computable General Equilibrium model of the UK that captures the interdependence between economic activity, energy use and emissions. Our results suggest that while economic outcomes move in the desired direction there are mixed impacts on energy use, UK territorial industrial emissions, and the energy- and emissions-intensity of the UK economy. Notably, we identify instances where growing exports in specific sectors help to meet the objectives of both the Clean Growth Strategy and Industrial Strategy.
    Keywords: energy policy, industrial strategy, trade policy, emissions
    JEL: C68 D58 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2020–07
  16. By: Georgiadis, Georgios; Le Mezo, Helena; Mehl, Arnaud; Casas, Camila; Boz, Emine; Nguyen, Tra; Gopinath, Gita
    Abstract: This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel data set of invoicing currencies in global trade. It provides data on the shares of exports and imports invoiced in US dollars, euros, and other currencies for more than 100 countries since 1990. The evidence from these data confirms findings from earlier research regarding the globally dominant role of the US dollar in invoicing – despite the comparatively smaller role of the US in global trade – and the overall stability of invoicing currency patterns. But the evidence also points to several novel stylised facts. First, both the US dollar and the euro have been increasingly used for invoicing even as the share of global trade accounted for by the US and the euro area has declined. Second, the euro is used as a vehicle currency in parts of Africa, and some European countries have seen significant shifts toward euro invoicing. And third, as suggested by the dominant currency paradigm, countries invoicing more in US dollars (euros) tend to experience greater US dollar (euro) exchange rate pass-through to their import prices; also, their trade volumes are more sensitive to fluctuations in these exchange rates. JEL Classification: F14, F31, F44
    Keywords: dominant currency paradigm, exchange rate pass-through, invoicing currency of trade
    Date: 2020–08
  17. By: Defever,Fabrice Fernand; Riano,Alejandro; Varela,Gonzalo J.
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of two export finance support schemes, the Export Finance Scheme and the Long-Term Finance Facility for Plant&Machinery on firm-level export performance in Pakistan. These policies offer loans to exporters at concessionary interest rates to finance short-term working capital and long-term investment in machinery and equipment, respectively. The paper combines customs data with information on firms that participated in each scheme and the value of the loans they obtained between 2015 and 2017. Using matching estimators to control for the nonrandom selection of firms into the schemes, the analysis finds that the Export Finance Scheme and Long-Term Finance Facility for Plant&Machinery increased the growth rate of export sales by 7 and 8-11 percentage points, but they do not have a significant impact on the number of products that a firm exports or the number of foreign countries to which it sells to. A cost-benefit analysis shows that although both schemes deliver net benefits, they entail a substantial financial cost to Pakistan's central bank.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Export Competitiveness,Technology Industry,Technology Innovation,Banks&Banking Reform,Legal Reform,Social Policy,Legislation,Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation,Trade Law,Judicial System Reform,Legal Products,Regulatory Regimes
    Date: 2020–08–13
  18. By: Thomas A. Gresik; Dirk Schindler; Guttorm Schjelderup
    Abstract: We study the link between a country’s institutional quality in tax collection and its optimal corporate tax policies in a model of heterogeneous multinationals that can shift income using both debt and transfer prices. Countries with weak institutional quality can be made worse off adopting policies that attract FDI as the benefits from higher wages and production are more than offset by tax base erosion. Countries with moderate institutional quality can gain from under-utilizing their ability to collect taxes, since the benefit of attracting more FDI outstrips the benefit of increased tax revenue. Countries with very strong institutions benefit from FDI and should utilize their full ability to collect taxes.
    Keywords: FDI, thin capitalization rules, transfer pricing, institutional quality
    JEL: F23 H26 H32 F68
    Date: 2020
  19. By: Martina Magli
    Abstract: The study proves evidence of five new empirical facts on the impact of services offshoring on local labour markets. First, services offshoring increases average employment and wages within local labour markets, much more so in the manufacturing industry than in the services one. Second, positive effects are both on firms directly offshoring services and on non-offshoring firms located in the same local labour market of offshoring ones. Third, larger firms and those paying higher wages benefit the most from local market services offshoring, rising the gap between firms. Fourth, services offshoring widens the differences between workers with those in managerial and professional occupations or with a higher level of education benefiting the most. Finally, the interpretation of a local labour market is pivotal for the results: local area and sector-local area specifications reveal positive impacts of services offshoring, opposite to sectoral one.
    Keywords: services offshoring, local labour market, spillover effect, quantile analysis, Great Britain
    JEL: F10 F16 J20
    Date: 2020
  20. By: Rienzo, Cinzia
    Abstract: This paper is the first attempt to analyse the effect of the Brexit Referendum results on subjective well-being of immigrants living in the UK. Using the national representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) data and adopting a difference-in-differences estimates, we define natives as control group, and different sub-groups of immigrants as treatment groups. The current analysis suggests that following the EU Referendum Results Non-EU migrants experienced an improvement in both mental health and life satisfaction relative to the UK natives. The results are robust to several robustness checks. Among others, we account for unobserved individual fixed effects and for unbalanced panel data. The results are consistent with the idea that the end of free movement for EU immigrants has alleviated the sense of discrimination and frustration felt by Non-EU immigrants results mainly of the toughened visa restrictions enforced since 2010 by the UK Government.
    Keywords: immigration,Subjective Wellbeing,Brexit
    JEL: O15 J61
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Björn Nilsson; Racha Ramadan
    Abstract: This paper aims to quantify the effects from migration on net income distributions, disentangling the roles played by factor reallocation and remittances, and focusing on two (primarily) destination countries (Spain and Italy) and two (primarily) origin countries (Jordan and Iraq). Using LIS-ERF data sets for the four countries; the paper relies separately on a variant of a shift-share instrument to identify the effect of migration on inequalities at the regional level in Spain and Italy, and on quantile regression to estimate the impact of receiving remittances on per capita expenditure in Iraq and Jordan. The results suggest that migration increases inequality in both origin and receiving countries.
    JEL: D31 D63 O15
    Date: 2020–05
  22. By: Gulati, Ashok; Sandip, Das
    Abstract: India imports more from Africa than Africa does from India. A large share of Indian imports from Africa are oil and minerals. However, the India-Africa relations in food and agriculture are already important but have potentials for expansion. For complex reasons Africa had no transformation of its agriculture comparable to India’s during its erstwhile Green Revolution in the 1960s and 70s. The African continent and the Indian Subcontinent still have a lot to learn from each other, especially as food systems and food value chains are modernizing and technologies in agriculture and food sectors are spreading. This paper looks at historical ties between India and Africa. It identifies trade and investment patterns in recent decades and describes the collaborations between India and several African countries in the field of agriculture. Finally, we point at potential areas for mutual cooperation in agriculture of the two regions in the future.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2020–08–25
  23. By: Auer, Daniel; Tetlow, Daniel
    Abstract: Brexit - the United Kingdom leaving the European Union - continues to create an unpredictable social and political landscape. Uncertainty and perceptions are influential drivers when it comes to migration decisions, and yet, the literature's inference typically relies on individual-level data. This leaves the possibility of unobserved confounding factors being simultaneously associated with uncertainty perceptions. We leverage the British referendum of 2016 to leave the European Union as a unique natural experiment to demonstrate how collective uncertainty, induced by national government policy, affects the migratory behaviour of the citizens of an entire nation. Using official bilateral migration statistics, we highlight a substantial increase in migration flows from the UK to the remaining EU/EFTA countries. Exceptional spikes in naturalisation figures further indicate that UK-immigrants already living in other EU member states are actively taking decisions to mitigate the negative impact Brexit can have on their lives and livelihoods. We analyse encompassing interview data conducted among UK-immigrants in Germany to show that uncertainty about future bilateral relations and concerns about a negative economic outlook and social consequences in the UK, have been by far the most important driver of migration and naturalisation decisions in the post-referendum period.
    Keywords: Migration Decisions,Uncertainty,Subjective Beliefs,Risk preferences,Brexit,Migrationsentscheidungen,Unsicherheit,Subjektive Wahrnehmungen,Risikopräferenz,Brexit
    JEL: F22 D80 D81 J61
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Massimo Anelli; Gætano Basso; Giuseppe Ippedico; Giovanni Peri
    Abstract: Emigration of young, motivated individuals may deprive countries-of-origin of entrepreneurs. We isolate exogenous variation in a large emigration wave from Italy between 2008 and 2015 by interacting diaspora networks with economic pull factors in destination countries, and find that larger emigration rates reduced firm creation and innovative start-ups. We estimate that for every 100 emigrants, 26 fewer firms were created. An accounting exercise shows that 37 percent of the effect was due to the disproportionate loss of young people. The remaining effect was due to selection into emigration of highly entrepreneurial individuals, as well as negative spillovers on firm creation.
    Keywords: emigration, demography, brain drain, entrepreneurship, innovation, EU integration
    JEL: J61 H70 O30 M13
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Tolulope T. Osinubi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) countries between 2004 and 2018. Four measures of globalization are employed and sourced from KOF globalization index, 2018, while the female labour force participation rate is a proxy for FEP. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators. The findings of the PMG estimator from the Panel ARDL method reveal that political and overall globalization in MINT and BRICS countries have a positive impact on FEP, whereas social globalization exerts a negative impact on FEP in the long-run. It is observed that economic globalization has no long-run effect on FEP. Contrarily, all the measures of globalization posit no short-run effect on FEP in the short-run. This supports the argument that globalization has no immediate effect on FEP. Thus, it is recommended that both MINT and BRICS countries should find a way of improving the process of globalization generally to empower women to be involved in economic activities. This study complements the extant literature by focusing on how globalization dynamics influence FEP in the MINT and BRICS countries.
    Keywords: Globalization; female; gender; labour force participation; MINT and BRICS countries
    JEL: E60 F40 F59 D60
    Date: 2020–08

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