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on International Trade |
| By: | Michael Blanga Gubbay; Paola Conconi; Mathieu Parenti |
| Abstract: | We study the role of firms in the political economy of trade agreements. Using detailed information from lobbying reports filed under the Lobbying Disclosure Act, we find that virtually all firms that lobby on free trade agreements (FTAs) support their ratification. Moreover, relative to non-lobbying firms, lobbying firms are larger, and more likely to be engaged in international trade and to operate in comparative advantage sectors. To rationalize these findings, we develop a model in which heterogeneous firms decide whether to lobby and how much to spend in favor or against a proposed FTA. We show that the distributional effects are asymmetric: the winners from the FTA have higher stakes in the agreement than the losers, which explains why only pro-FTA firms select into lobbying. The model also delivers predictions on the intensive margin of lobbying. In line with these predictions, we find that firms spend more supporting agreements that generate larger potential gains in terms of the extent of the reduction of tariffs on their final goods and intermediate inputs, the depth of the agreement, and the export and sourcing potential of the FTA partners and when politicians are less likely to be in favor of ratification. |
| Keywords: | Trade agreements; endogeneous lobbying; heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | F13 F53 F61 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/304059&r=all |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Aksel Erbahar (Erasmus School of Economics); Maurizio Zanardi (Lancaster University Management School) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how trade protection is affected by changes in the value-added content of production arising through global value chains (GVCs). Exploiting a new set of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules adopted in 1995 that impose an exogenously timed requirement for countries to reevaluate their previously imposed trade protection, we adopt an instrumental variables strategy and identify the causal effect of GVC integration on the likelihood that a trade barrier is removed. Using a newly constructed dataset of protection removal decisions involving 10 countries, 41 trading partners, and 18 industries over 1995-2013, we find that bilateral industry-specific domestic value-added growth in foreign production significantly raises the probability of removing a duty. The results are not limited to imports from China but are only found for the protection decisions of high-income countries. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that rapid GVC growth in the 2000s freed almost a third of the trade flows subject to the most common temporary restrictions (i.e., antidumping) applied by high-income countries in 2006. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, trade protection, antidumping |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F68 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp20-3&r=all |
| By: | Muhammad, Andrew; Smith, S. Aaron |
| Abstract: | On January 15, 2020, the U.S. and China signed a “Phase One” trade deal to address desired structural reforms and other changes to the Chinese economy affecting international trade and foreign investment. The U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement, which is the first agreement in what is expected to be a series of agreements, focuses on reforms in the Chinese economy in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange. The agreement also includes commitments by China to purchase additional U.S. goods over the next two years, including significant purchases of U.S. agricultural, food, fish and forest products (USTR, 2020a). Although the U.S. has agreed not to impose additional tariffs on imports from China, and China has agreed to reduce or eliminate certain tariffs imposed in retaliation, the Phase One Agreement does not specifically address the escalating tariffs between the two countries due to the ongoing trade dispute that started in 2018. However, the agreement signifies a decrease in tensions and a possible path to tariff reductions and eliminations in the future. This is particularly important for U.S. forest product exports, which suffered significant losses in 2018 and 2019 from Chinese retaliatory tariffs. In this report, we provide the context and overview of the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement and implications for U.S. forest product exports. Forest products are a major agricultural and agriculture-related export for the U.S. However, the negative impact of the trade dispute on the sector has received little attention compared to other agricultural commodities such as soybeans and cotton. Over the last decade, the sector has become increasingly reliant on China for sales and suffered considerable losses from the retaliatory tariffs that China imposed (Ward, 2019; Pryor, 2019). The U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement sets the stage for a decrease in tensions between the two countries and the eventual removal of Chinese tariffs on U.S. products. This could result in considerable gains for the U.S. forest product sector moving forward. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2020–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:utaeer:302978&r=all |
| By: | Ulrich Schetter (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce quality differentiation into a Ricardian model of international trade. We show that (1) quality differentiation allows industrialized countries to be active across the full board of products, complex and simple ones, while developing countries systematically specialize in simple products, in line with novel stylized facts. (2) Quality differentiation may thus help to explain why richer countries tend to be more diversified and why, increasingly over time, rich and poor countries tend to export the same products. (3) Quality differentiation implies that the gains from inter-product trade mostly accrue to developing countries. (4) Guided by our theory, we use a censored regression model to estimate the link between a country’s GDP per capita and its export quality. We find a much stronger relationship than when using OLS, in line with our theory. |
| Keywords: | Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification, Nestedness, Product Complexity, Quality Differentiation |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F14 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:126a&r=all |
| By: | Ibukun Beecroft (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Evans S. Osabuohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Uchenna R. Efobi (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Isaiah Olurinola (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Romanus A. Osabohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | Investment in ICT infrastructure development is crucial to international trade through its provision of reliable interconnectedness via communication. This can be augmented via institutional intervention, which addresses opportunistic or rent-seeking behaviours of ICT infrastructure providers and reduces operational costs, among others. However, ICT infrastructural provision in West Africa remains low, necessitating the current drive by the regional economic community (ECOWAS) to make some advancement in this regard for enhanced trade outcomes of members. With the aim of unbundling institutional framework in the infrastructure-export nexus, this study empirically examines the relationship between manufacturing export and ICT infrastructure and articulates how economic and political institutions influence such interaction. Focusing on 14 West African countries, the study uses the Systems Generalised Method of Moments (SGMM) technique to address possible issues of endogeneity and reverse causality. The results reveal that in the face of improved economic and political institutions, particularly those related to enforcement of contracts, the influence of ICT infrastructure in strengthening the exporting capacity from the manufacturing sector is greater. In addition, some measures of economic and political institutions matter more than others. The study recommends that ECOWAS countries promote better institutional quality, particularly in terms of transparency, accountability, corruption control, regulatory quality and the rule of law. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic panel data; Infrastructural provision; Infrastructural development; Institutional framework; Institutional quality; Manufacturing export; Manufacturing value added |
| JEL: | F14 O14 O17 O43 P45 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/098&r=all |
| By: | Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) |
| Abstract: | On December 10, 2019, the WTO’s 25-year-old system of resolving disputes broke down. This paper explains why. It describes the dysfunctional system that preceded the WTO, when the United States dealt with politically troublesome imports by using voluntary export restraints and increasingly resorted to the “aggressively unilateral†Section 301 policy to resolve trade concerns. The WTO was a compromise between the rest of the world and the United States, whereby the latter accepted some constraints with the expectation that the new system of binding dispute settlement would serve its interests. But although the creation of the WTO resolved some concerns about American unilateralism in the short term, its system of handling disputes turned out to be politically unsustainable. |
| Keywords: | WTO, dispute settlement, Appellate Body, antidumping, trade remedies |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp20-4&r=all |
| By: | De Lyon, Josh; Pessoa, Joao Paulo |
| Abstract: | We exploit the recent surge in Chinese export growth to study the effects of a trade shock on a foreign market - the UK. We find that individuals initially employed in sectors highly exposed to Chinese imports earned less and remained out of employment longer than workers in sectors that were less exposed to import competition in the period 2000-2007. Earnings losses were most severe when workers remained in the same industry, whereas those who switched out of their 2-digit sector were able to mitigate these losses. The effects are heterogeneous across the distribution of earnings within the same age cohort, with initially better-paid workers suffering less in terms of employment and earnings than those initially worse-paid. Female workers experienced a greater fall in total earnings, mostly through reduced years of employment. Furthermore, firms in industries flooded by Chinese products displayed lower employment growth and higher probability of going out of business than firms in sectors more insulated from competition with China. |
| Date: | 2020–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3ws94&r=all |
| By: | Felbermayr , Gabriel (Kiel Institute & Kiel University); Kirilakha, Aleksandra (Drexel University); Syropoulos , Constantinos (Drexel University); Yalcin , Erdal (Konstanz University); Yotov, Yoto (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | This article introduces the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB), a new dataset of economic sanctions that covers all bilateral, multilateral, and plurilateral sanctions in the world from 1950 to 2015 across three dimensions: type, political objective, and extent of success. The GSDB features by far the most cases amongst data bases that focus on effective sanctions (i.e., excluding threats) and is particularly useful for analysis of bilateral international transactional data (such as trade flows). We highlight five important stylized facts: (i) sanctions are increasingly used over time; (ii) European countries are the most frequent users and African countries the most frequent targets; (iii) sanctions are becoming more diverse, with the share of trade sanctions declining and that of financial or travel sanctions increasing; (iv) the main objectives of sanctions are increasingly related to democracy or human rights; (v) the success rate of sanctions has gone up until 1995 and fallen since then. Using state-of-the-art gravity modeling, we exemplify the usefulness of the GDSB in the realm of international trade. Trade sanctions have a negative but heterogeneous effect on trade, which is most pronounced for complete bilateral sanctions, followed by complete export sanction |
| Keywords: | Sanctions; Sanction Databases; Effects of Sanctions on Trade |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F50 F51 H50 N40 |
| Date: | 2020–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2020_002&r=all |
| By: | Murshed, S.M. |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to examine the short-run effects of economic sanctions taking the form of restrictions on international trade in goods and services, as well as brakes on international financial flows. A Keynesian disequilibrium, demand driven macroeconomic paradigm is postulated. The target country is envisaged to be part of the global South, the sender country is viewed to be located in the global North, and the sanctions are general rather than targeted at specific firms and sectors. The trade sanctions can take two forms: a diminution of exports to the target country and a reduction in exports from the target nation. Both type of sanctions damage the target country’s economy on impact: the first by lowering aggregate supply in the target country, the latter by worsening its terms of trade. From the viewpoint of the sender country, its economy may benefit from the demand generated by the rent from export restrictions to the targeted economy. Financial sanctions are more unequivocal in their damage to the target economy, they lower the supply of funds or capital in the target nation with adverse consequences for the supply of credit, investment finance, as well as reduced options on how to finance government expenditure. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, macroeconomic effects, trade policy |
| Date: | 2020–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:126242&r=all |
| By: | Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl; Herghelegiu, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Quality-focused non-tariff measures are increasingly adopted by policy makers to address market failures. This paper tests for their selection and quality effects in a context of information asymmetry regarding product attributes. Our theory reveals that the enforcement of quality standards (QSs) induces the exit of low-quality firms but also that of some high-quality ones. The overall quality effect is therefore ambiguous. Using French firm data, we find that the QSs imposed by destination countries increase the probability, volume and value of exports of high-productivity medium-quality firms at the expense of low-productivity high-quality firms. QSs improve the average quality of exported consumption goods. |
| Keywords: | Firm exports, Quality standards, Information asymmetry |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:1808&r=all |
| By: | Ingo Borchert; Paola Conconi; Mattia Di Ubaldo; Cristina Herghelegiu |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) often conditions preferential access to its market upon compliance by its trading partners with Non-Trade Policy Objectives (NTPOs), including human rights and labor and environmental standards. We systematically document the coverage of NTPOs in EU trade agreements and in its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). We then examine the extent to which trade agreements and GSP programs can be used to promote NTPOs. Preferential trade agreements are negotiated under multilateral rules, which require members to eliminate all tariffs reciprocally. As a result, once a trade agreement enters into force, the EU cannot easily restrict or extend access to its market so as to “punish bad behavior” or “reward good behavior” on NTPOs by its trading partners. By contrast, GSP preferences are granted on a unilateral basis, so they can be limited or extended, depending on compliance with NTPOs. EU GSP programs can thus provide a carrot-and-stick mechanism to promote NTPOs in partner countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade Agreements; GSP; Conditionality; Non-Trade Policy Objectives |
| JEL: | F13 F50 J80 K32 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/304060&r=all |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Xing, Xiaorong |
| Abstract: | A landmark achievement of the Uruguay Round, and notably, the Agreement on Agriculture, was the full inclusion of agriculture in multilateral rules and disciplines. Since the birth of World Trade Organization (WTO), a significant number of member countries have used the dispute settlement mechanism (DSM) for resolving the disputes in agriculture. The DSM has played an important role not only for those parties involved in the disputes, but also by helping member countries to better understand the WTO rules, and therefore help guide them in developing domestic policies and trade policies that are consistent with WTO requirements. This paper examines trade disputes involving the Agreement on Agriculture since the WTO was formed in 1995 through December 2019. It analyzes who brought the disputes and against whom disputes were brought, and provides details on the natures of the disputes, the duration of disputes, and, the outcome of those disputes. |
| Keywords: | WORLD; WTO; dispute settlement; agriculture; trade policies; trade; trade agreements; Agreement on Agriculture; dispute settlement mechanism; appellate body |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1917&r=all |
| By: | Ajzenman, Nicolas (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV); Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Guriev, Sergei (Sciences Po, Paris) |
| Abstract: | Does exposure to mass migration affect economic behavior, attitudes and beliefs of natives in transit countries? In order to answer this question, we use a unique locality-level panel from the 2010 and 2016 rounds of the Life in Transition Survey and data on the main land routes taken by migrants in 18 European countries during the refugee crisis in 2015. To capture the exogenous variation in natives' exposure to transit migration, we construct an instrument that is based on the distance of each locality to the optimal routes that minimize travelling time between the main origin and destination cities. We first show that the entrepreneurial activity of natives falls considerably in localities that are more exposed to mass transit migration, compared to those located further away. We then explore the mechanisms and find that our results are likely to be explained by a decrease in the willingness to take risks as well as in the confidence in institutions. We also document an increase in the anti-migrant sentiment while attitudes towards other minorities remained unchanged. We rule out the possibility of out-migration of natives or of trade-related shocks (potentially confounded with the mass-transit migration) affecting our results. Using locality-level luminosity data, we also rule out any effect driven by changes in economic activity. Finally, we find no statistically significant effects on other labor market outcomes, such as unemployment or labor force participation. |
| Keywords: | migrant routes, entrepreneurship, public attitudes, political instability |
| JEL: | F22 L26 D91 O15 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13130&r=all |
| By: | Michael Bailey; Abhinav Gupta; Sebastian Hillenbrand; Theresa Kuchler; Robert J. Richmond; Johannes Stroebel |
| Abstract: | We use anonymized data from Facebook to construct a new measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 180 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more with each other when they are more socially connected and when they share social connections with a similar set of other countries. The social connections that determine trade in each product are those between the regions where the product is produced in the exporting country and those where it is used in the importing country. Once we control for social connectedness, the estimated effect of geographic distance on trade declines substantially, and the effect of country borders disappears. Our findings suggest that social connectedness increases trade by reducing information asymmetries and by providing a substitute for both trust and formal mechanisms of contract enforcement. We also present evidence against omitted variables and reverse causality as alternative explanations for the observed relationships between social connectedness and trade flows. |
| JEL: | F1 F6 G0 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26960&r=all |
| By: | Qirjo, Dhimitri; Pascalau, Razvan; Krichevskiy, Dmitriy |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates how the presence of CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) may affect per capita emissions of four air pollutants. It follows closely the empirical work of (Qirjo et al., 2019), but it focuses in each category of GHGs. It finds statistically significant evidence suggesting that trade openness between the EU and Canada could help reduce per capita emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O in a typical CETA member, respectively. In the case of CO2, the presence of CETA may help reduce per capita emissions in almost all CETA members. However, there is empirical evidence that suggests that per capita emissions of CH4 could move from the EU towards Canada due to the implementation of CETA. There is also empirical evidence implying that there could be a shift of emissions per capita of N2O from Canada towards 8 former EU members due to the implementation of CETA. There is mainly statistically insignificant evidence of a positive relationship between the trade intensity of each EU member and Canada and per capita emissions of HFCs/PFCs/SF6. Furthermore, the study reports unambiguous empirical evidence in support of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis originating from national population density variations (PHH2) for Canada, in the case of CH4. Moreover, there is also clear evidence consistent with the Pollution Haven Hypothesis due to national income differences (PHH1) for 8 former Communist EU members, in the cases of N2O and HFCs/PFCs/SF6. |
| Keywords: | Free Trade, Environmental Economics, CETA. |
| JEL: | F11 F53 Q27 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99646&r=all |
| By: | Robertson, Raymond (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | The rise of global supply chains over the last three decades intensified international attention to the conditions endured by workers in poor countries. Collapsed buildings, fires and death created an imperative to address poor conditions. Consumers, non-governmental organizations, inter-governmental organizations, international buyers and governments began seeking ways to improve working conditions in exporting factories in developing countries. The goals of this chapter is to describe the birth and growth of the Better Factories Cambodia (BFC) program, review the academic literature that has focused on both the BFC program and its descendent, Better Work, and identify some of the key aspects of the program that have been shown to be particularly successful. |
| Keywords: | working conditions, global value chains, Cambodia, Better Factories Cambodia |
| JEL: | F16 F66 F23 J8 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13095&r=all |
| By: | Rene Belderbos; Christoph Grimpe |
| Abstract: | We suggest that the benefits of learning in international value chains for firms’ innovation performance are heterogeneous and depend on the specific source of learning (customers, suppliers, or competitors), whether these sources are based in countries that are technologically advanced or less advanced (learning opportunities), on technology leadership (learning capabilities) on the part of the focal firm, and on the simultaneous learning that occurs from domestic firms. Using direct survey evidence on learning and innovation by German firms, we confirm that technology leaders benefit from advanced foreign customer and supplier learning, that technology laggards benefit from less advanced foreign customer learning and advanced foreign competitor learning, and that both leaders and laggards benefit from domestic customer learning. The findings suggest a tradeoff between the opportunities to learn from foreign or domestic customers. |
| Keywords: | learning from internationalization, innovation, technology leadership |
| Date: | 2020–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:653332&r=all |
| By: | Michael Baltensperger; Uri Dadush |
| Abstract: | The quantifiable gains from the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Mercosur – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – are small on account of the small share of EU trade with Mercosur and the relatively modest ambitions of the deal in terms of liberalising agriculture in the EU and manufacturing in Mercosur. Nevertheless, the agreement, if ratified and accompanied by reforms that strengthen competitiveness, could represent a major... |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:32541&r=all |
| By: | Pajaron, Marjorie; Latinazo, Cara T.; Trinidad, Enrico G. |
| Abstract: | The Philippine government has focused most of its migration policy initiatives to encouraging international labour migration and protecting the rights of Filipino migrant workers. However, government interventions and aids to left-behind families and children left much to be desired. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the impact of parental migration on the welfare of left-behind children in the Philippines so that policies can be devised to support them. This study’s analytical methods (instrumental variable analysis and propensity score matching) enable it to address several issues in migration research including endogeneity, migrant selectivity and community (regional) context, using previously unexamined nationally representative data from the Philippines. Our results suggest an overall positive impact on education, work, and temper of left-behind children. However, they tend to be more physically sickly. This warrants government attention to preclude any long-term negative health effects. |
| Keywords: | Parental Migration,Children’s Welfare,Instrumental Variable,PSM |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:507&r=all |
| By: | Nico Stoeckmann (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | The outcome of Bergstrand's 1985 famous and widely cited gravity equation is corrected. Instead of resulting in PX_{ij} = (1/2) * Y_i^{1/2} * Y_j^{1/2}, the basic gravity model actually results in PX_{ij} = Y_i^{1/2} * Y_j^{1/2}. Even if his derivation is primarily used to find suitable control variables, Bergstrand also contributes a large amount to the theoretical justification of the model, which makes the correctness indispensable. The new solution leads to a better fit of his model in the set of other economists' approaches of the gravity model. |
| Keywords: | International Economics, Trade, Gravity Model |
| JEL: | F11 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:131&r=all |
| By: | Bahri Yilmaz (Sabanci University, Koç University) |
| Abstract: | China’s expansionary economic policy toward Western countries was not predicted only in Washington but also in the EU. As expected, the EU became aware of the fact that China is a tough competitor, redesigning not only the world economy but also challenging Europe under the 17+1 and the Belt and Road Initiative. In this paper, first attempt will be made to examine the EU’s trade relations with China. Then, it will be discussed the main economic issues and disputes between the EU and China. We will ask the following questions: Why is China important for the EU, and why is the EU important for China? What about the EU Strategy on China? What are the trade priorities for the EU and China? How can the EU counter unfair competition from China? What are the EU's and China's plans to connect with each other across the continent? Is China welcome in Europe? What are the advantages of the Member States in the EU working together vis-à-vis China? |
| Keywords: | China, European Union, Trade. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2010&r=all |
| By: | Georg Zachmann |
| Abstract: | This Policy Contribution is a version of a paper prepared for the seminar ‘Trade relations between the EU, China and Russia’, co-organised by the Delegation of the European Union to Russia and Bruegel with the support of the EU Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN). The seminar was funded by the European Union. The content of this paper is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent... |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:33564&r=all |
| By: | Stéphane AURAY (CREST-Ensai and Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale. ENSAI, Campus de Ker-Lann, Rue Blaise Pascal, BP37203, 35172 BRUZ Cedex, France); Michel B. DEVEREUX (Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia 6000, Iona Drive, Vancouver B.C. CANADA V6T 1L4, CEPR and NBER); Aurélien EYQUEM (Univ Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, and Institut Universitaire de France. 93 Chemin des Mouilles, BP167, 69131 Ecully Cedex, France) |
| Abstract: | We build measures of the demand for trade protection, and relate it to permanent productivity and transitory monetary policy shocks identified from the U.S. monthly and quarterly data. The demand for protection is counter-cyclical conditional on productivity shocks and pro-cyclical conditional on monetary policy shocks. We then layout a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with trade in intermediate and final goods, sticky prices, incomplete financial markets and endogenous monetary policy rules, and propose a repeated non-cooperative policy game that determines tariffs endogenously. These tradepolicies (i) are consistent with small but positive tariffs, as in the data, and (ii) fit empirical evidence about the cyclical pattern of the demand for trade protection under a wide range of plausible model calibrations. We then use the model to quantify the macroeconomic and welfare effects of a change in tariff setters' preferences that induces tariffs to rise in both countries. |
| Keywords: | Protectionism, Tariffs, Business Cycle. |
| JEL: | F30 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2018–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2020-08&r=all |
| By: | Sigit, Aisyah Soemantri |
| Abstract: | A paper about International Economics related to Rattan Industry that talks about Comparative Advantage and the three types of Global Value Chain. |
| Date: | 2020–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8rwqf&r=all |
| By: | Sondermann, David; Lehtimäki, Jonne |
| Abstract: | The European Single Market created a common market for millions of Europeans. However, thirty years after its introduction, it appears that the benefits of the common European project are occasionally being questioned at least by some parts of the population. Others, by contrast, strive for deeper integration. Against this background, we empirically gauge the growth effect that arose from the Single Market. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we establish the growth premium for the Single Market overall and for its founding members. Broadly in line with the predictions made by Baldwin (1989) at the onset of the Single Market project, we find significantly higher real GDP per capita for the overall Single Market area of around 12-22%. In comparison, smaller EU Member States seem to have benefited somewhat more compared to larger countries. The estimated growth effects underline the case for further deepening and broadening the Single Market where possible. JEL Classification: F13, F14, F15, N14 |
| Keywords: | economic growth, Single Market, synthetic control method |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202392&r=all |
| By: | Soyoung Han (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The Summer Olympic Games are the most globalized sporting event on earth. Until now, the Summer Games had been postponed only three times—in 1916, 1940, and 1944—all because of world wars. So, the announcement that in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Tokyo Games would be postponed by a year is significant, implicit testimony to the destructiveness of the pandemic. The Tokyo Games were expected to continue the evolution of the Games away from the aristocratic European milieu where the modern Olympic movement began. As poverty has declined and incomes across the global economy have converged, participation in the Games has broadened and the pattern of medaling has become more pluralistic, particularly in sports with low barriers to entry in terms of facilities and equipment. This Policy Brief presents forecasts of medal counts at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Games had they had gone on as scheduled, setting aside possible complications arising from the coronavirus pandemic. The forecasts are not just a depiction of what might have been. They establish a benchmark that can be used when the Games are eventually held, to examine the impact of the uneven incidence of the pandemic globally. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb20-6&r=all |