|
on International Trade |
| By: | Jan Hanousek (CERGE-EI, Charles University); Evzen Kocenda; Pavla Vozarova (Faculty of Information Technology, Czech Technical University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs), via their foreign direct investment, on domestic firms in 30 European host economies, from 2001 to 2013. We incorporate international industrial and trade linkages into a standard theoretical framework and test them empirically on a unique dataset compiled from the Amadeus, Eurostat, UNComtrade and BACI data sources and aggregated at industry level. While controlling for horizontal, vertical, and export channels at the upstream and downstream levels, we show that the presence of MNEs significantly affects domestic firms by changing the degree of competition and improving productivity. The impact is not always positive, as domestic firms are often crowded-out, but the negative effect for an average firm is mostly small. |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprise (MNE), foreign direct investment (FDI), European firms, spillovers, international trade |
| JEL: | C33 F15 F21 F23 O24 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1028&r=all |
| By: | Muhammad, Andrew; Griffith, Andrew P. |
| Abstract: | The signing of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in March 2018 could disadvantage U.S. beef in Japan. Beef-exporting countries party to the agreement (e.g., Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and Canada) will see an immediate reduction and phase- down of tariffs from their current levels of 38.5 percent (muscle cuts) and 50 percent (select offal products) to 9 percent over a 15-year period. For some offal products, tariffs will be phased out completely (New Zealand Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2018). On the other hand, U.S. beef will continue to face tariffs of 38.5 percent to 50 percent, as well as a global safeguard tariff of 50 percent when imports exceed a specified level (Muhammad et al., 2016). Although Australia and Mexico have existing agreements with Japan, the proposed CPTPP tariff reductions are beyond those negotiated in prior agreements. The U.S. has free trade agreements with several CPTPP countries, but a major exception is Japan, which is the leading market for U.S. beef exports. In 2017, U.S. beef exports totaled $7.3 billion; Japan accounted for more than 25 percent of this total ($1.9 billion) (USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, 2018). Understandably, the tariff advantage for a major competitor like Australia and smaller competitors like Canada, New Zealand and Mexico has raised concerns in the U.S. beef industry about its future in Japan. Japanese beef imports are largely split between the U.S. and Australia. While beef imports from other CPTPP countries are smaller by comparison, the proposed tariff reductions could make these countries more important players. For instance, the Government of Canada (2018) projects that Canadian beef exports to Japan will increase by 95 percent with full implementation of the CPTPP. The overall goal of this report is to examine how CPTPP tariff reductions in Japan could impact the competitiveness of U.S. beef, vis-à-vis Australian beef and beef from other CPTPP countries. While there is some evidence that Japanese consumers see U.S. and Australian beef as somewhat different (e.g., grain-fed versus grass-fed), prior research suggests that price competition is still important and that tariffs could affect the competitiveness of exporting countries (Muhammad et al., 2018). Based on recently published research on Japanese beef imports, we present findings of how tariff reductions for Australia and other CPTPP countries could impact U.S. beef in Japan. The recovery of U.S. beef in Japan since the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) ban was lifted in 2006 has been notable. However, these gains and the current status of U.S. beef in Japan could be in jeopardy if the U.S. does not obtain market access on par with CPTPP countries. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:utaeer:302910&r=all |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Guriev, Sergei (New Economic School, Moscow); Treisman, Daniel (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | How does international trade affect the popularity of governments and leaders? The recent backlash against globalization renders this question extremely topical. Yet, most previous work has looked for political effects of aggregate trade flows without decomposing into particular types of products. We provide the first large-scale, global evidence that trade shocks affect political approval and show that what matters is the match between workers' skills and the characteristics of goods traded. Using a unique data set including 118 countries, we show that growth in high skill intensive exports increases approval of incumbents among skilled individuals. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. High skill intensive trade has no discernible effect on the unskilled. To identify exogenous variation, we exploit the time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade flows. Our findings help explain responses to trade of economic elites in developing and middle income countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade, political approval, skill intensity of trade |
| JEL: | D72 F14 G02 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13026&r=all |
| By: | Ajmani, Manmeet; Choudhary, Vishruta; Kishore, Avinash; Roy, Devesh |
| Abstract: | We assess food trade among and across two Asian trading blocs, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and China. Using most recent innovations in the empirical trade model, we find subpar trade for several countries but some over-trading as well, likely driven by weak economic fundamentals determining trade. Further, we find that Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam under-export to China, and to nearly all ASEAN and SAARC countries, with the magnitude varying between 40 and 100 percent below the predicted trade levels. While checking for competing explanations, we identify trading pair time variant factors such as tariffs reducing the magnitude of under-exporting of ASEAN and SAARC countries by 1 and 3 percent, respectively. We also highlight unobserved variables such as trust between countries as factors important for strong agricultural trade. |
| Keywords: | CHINA; EAST ASIA; ASIA; ASEAN; models; trade; international trade; gravity model; multilateral resistance; zero trade; under-trading; over-trading; SAARC |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1914&r=all |
| By: | Mukunoki, Hiroshi; Okoshi, Hirofumi |
| Abstract: | prises (MNEs) manipulate their transfer prices to avoid a high corporate tax. ROO of a free trade agreement (FTA) require exporters to identify the origin of exports to be eligible for a preferential tariff rate. The results suggest that a value-added criterion of ROO restricts MNEs’ abusive transfer pricing. Interestingly, an FTA with ROO can induce MNEs to shift profits from a low-tax country to a high-tax country. Because ROO augment tax revenues inside FTA countries, they can transform a welfare-reducing FTA into a welfare-improving FTA. |
| Keywords: | Rules of origin; Free trade agreement; Transfer pricing |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F23 H26 |
| Date: | 2020–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:71608&r=all |
| By: | Twinam, Tate |
| Abstract: | Agglomeration economies and clustering effects are a key driver of urban growth. They can also be a source of vulnerability when cities and regions specialize in export-intensive industries. Foreign competition, exchange rate movements, macroeconomic volatility, and technological change are all potential threats to exporters, and shocks to these industries can have long-run impacts on population size and growth. In this paper, I study an unusual confluence of all four of these trade shocks: The quartz crisis in Switzerland, which devastated the globally-dominant Swiss watch industry in the 1970s. I document the geographic agglomeration pattern of the industry and the impact of the crisis on exports, employment, and wages. Using a differences-in-differences strategy, I show that this series of trade shocks led to a large and rapid loss of population in affected areas, and a long-run change in growth patterns. I explore the mechanisms behind this population change, including the role of manufacturing employment and immigration. I discuss the implications of these results for theories of urban growth, and contrast them with recent work on the China shock in Europe and the United States. |
| Date: | 2020–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:twscm&r=all |
| By: | Theresa Greaney (Department of Economics, University of Hawai'i); Kozo Kiyota (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | While Japan's outward FDI stock is historically high, it is not necessarily clear whether there is untapped growth potential, given the economic size of Japan and that of partner countries. This paper examines whether Japan's actual outward FDI stock is high or low relative to the FDI predicted by the gravity model using the outward FDI patterns of all OECD nations, which we call counterfactual FDI. The results indicate that the ratio of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI is the highest among the OECD countries as of the year 2015. The regional distribution of Japan's actual to counterfactual FDI favors Southeast Asian nations, South Africa and the US. These results imply that Japan has no unrealized potential for outward FDI. |
| Keywords: | Outward foreign direct investment, Gravity model, Japan |
| JEL: | F14 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2020–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2020-007&r=all |
| By: | Cheng, Haitao; Kato, Hayato; Obashi, Ayako |
| Abstract: | The spatial unbundling of parts production and assembly currently characterizes globalization, leading to the worldwide dispersion of pollution. We consider socially optimal (cooperative) environmental taxes in a two-country model of global value chains in which the location of both parts and assembly can differ. When unbundling costs are so high that parts and assembly must colocate in the pre-globalized world, pollution is spatially concentrated, and harmonizing environmental taxes maximizes global welfare. In contrast, with low unbundling costs triggering the dispersion of parts and thus pollution throughout the world as today, harmonization fails to maximize global welfare. Similar results hold when the two countries non-cooperatively choose their environmental taxes. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy, Fragmentation, Emission tax competition, International coordination, Trade in parts and components |
| JEL: | F18 F23 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2020-04&r=all |
| By: | Dadakas, Dimitrios |
| Abstract: | Advances in gravity literature have presented econometric approaches for the theoretically consistent estimation of structural gravity. When estimating the impact of policy-shocks on trade values however, researchers are confronted with two problems. Once multilateral resistances are taken into account, through time-varying importer and exporter fixed effects, they absorb the effect of policy-shock indicator variables. Hence, we cannot obtain a coefficient for the impact of policy. The second problem is rooted in the necessary panel data dimensions in structural gravity that requires multiple-exporters and multiple-importers. The (at least) three dimensional panel implies that any coefficients/impacts that are estimated apply to the whole set of exporters rather than the country related to the scope of the research. I propose a method to approach these two problems, estimate the impact that policy-shock variables have on trade and differentiate the results for the country/countries related to the scope of the research. A short application on the impact that the Global Financial Crisis had on trade values is presented. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Structural Gravity, PPML, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, Global Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | C1 C10 C2 C23 F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2020–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98956&r=all |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef; Fakraoui, Nissar; Mabrouki, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This article has examined the contribution of domestic investment, exports and imports on economic growth in Peru. To achieve this objective, annual data for the period between 1970 and 2017 were used and tested based on Johansen co integration analysis and the vector error correction model. According to the results of the analysis, it has been determined that domestic investment, exports and imports have not any effect on economic growth in the short run and in the long run. These outcomes manifest that trade openness and domestic investments are not beholden as a provenance of economic growth in Peru over this extended period and suffer from many issues and a miserable economic organization. |
| Keywords: | Domestic investment, Imports, Exports, Economic Growth, Peru |
| JEL: | E2 E22 F11 F13 F14 O4 O47 |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99041&r=all |
| By: | Monica Hernandez |
| Abstract: | This research examines non-tariff measures (NTMs) and their use in impact assessments of free trade agreements (FTAs) based on computable general equilibrium models (CGE) as well as its implications. We show that projected gains related to FTAs tend to rely on removing ‘actionable’ NTMs and that, usually, impact assessments and empirical studies that provide this recommendation lack case-specific explanations behind actionability as well as of the channels and the way NTM elimination is supposed to improve welfare. We also find that the estimated economic gains from FTAs based on CGE models tend to be small and based on a high percentage of NTM elimination, which underestimates the social significance of these measures. Since NTMs comprise measures that target not only economic aspects but also social and environmental ones, indiscriminate NTM elimination suggests that small gains may come at a high cost. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dae:daepap:19-03&r=all |
| By: | Gaetan de Rassenfosse (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne); Marco Grazzi (Department of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Daniele Moschella (Institute of Economics & EMbeDS, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna); Gabriele Pellegrino (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the extent to which international trade hinges on patents. We analyze the export and patenting activities of the universe of French exporting firms over the period 2002–2011. The noticeable feature of our study is that we observe export and patenting activities worldwide and at the product level. We exploit how heterogeneity of patent coverage across (and within) product-country relates to exports. We find a patent premium of at least 10 percent, which is mainly associated with a quantity effect. A modest price effect emerges in specific sectors, notably pharmaceuticals. |
| Keywords: | export, international trade, patent, product |
| JEL: | F14 O34 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iip:wpaper:8&r=all |
| By: | Ni, Bin; Kato, Hayato |
| Abstract: | Developing countries are eager to host foreign direct investment to receive positive technology spillovers to their local firms. However, what types of foreign firms are desirable for the host country to achieve spillovers best? We address this question using firm-level panel data from Vietnam to investigate whether foreign Asian investors in downstream sectors with different productivity affects the productivity of local Vietnamese firms in upstream sectors differently. Using endogenous structural breaks, we divide Asian investors into low-, middle-, and high-productivity groups. The results suggest that the presence of the middle group has the strongest positive spillover effect. The differential spillover effects can be explained by a simple model with vertical linkages and productivity-enhancing investment by local suppliers. The theoretical mechanism is also empirically confirmed. |
| Keywords: | FDI spillovers; Heterogeneous productivity; Firm-level data; Endogenous structural break; Vertical Cournot model |
| JEL: | D22 F21 |
| Date: | 2020–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99304&r=all |
| By: | Perekunah B. Eregha (Pan-Atlantic University, Lekki-Lagos. Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of exchange rate regimes on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow for WAMZ. The Arellano Panel Correction for Serial Correlation and Heteroskedaticity option of the Within Estimator for fixed effect panel data model as well as the Dynamic Panel Data Instrumental Variable Approach by Anderson and Hsiao (1981) for the countries selected based on data availability for the period 1980-2016 were used. The fixed exchange rate regime was found to hamper FDI flow in the zone while intermediate policy had a significantly positive effect in facilitating FDI flow during periods of declining foreign reserves and narrowing current account balance in WAMZ. This implies that the transmission of the effect of exchange rate regimes on FDI inflows depends on the positions of the foreign reserves and current account balance in the zone. Consequently, the fixed regime is not a good policy in periods of narrowing current account balance and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The study therefore recommends the need for monetary authorities to be cautious in managing their exchange rates especially in periods of depleting foreign reserves and narrowing current account so as not to deter the much needed FDI inflow. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate Regimes; Inflationary Expectation; Exchange rate uncertainty; Foreign Direct Investment Flow; Panel Data Analysis |
| JEL: | E31 F21 F31 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/069&r=all |
| By: | Chunding Li; Xin Lin; John Whalley |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a 29-country numerical general equilibrium model with inside money and trade cost to simulate and compare the effects of China and the US taking part in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is a high standard mega regional trade agreement. Comparison results show that China will benefit CPTPP member countries more than the US on trade, GDP, and manufacturing employment. China’s entering the CPTPP can also benefit most non-member countries on GDP and manufacturing employment. By joining, the US will benefit the whole world more, as the US economic scale is larger than that of China. Our simulation results reveal that China will be more welcomed to the CPTPP by member countries. |
| JEL: | C68 F47 F53 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26877&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to assess governance drivers of FDI in a panel of BRICS and MINT countries for the period 2001-2011. We bundle and unbundle governance determinants using a battery of contemporary and non-contemporary estimation techniques. Our findings reveal the following: Firstly, for both contemporary and non-contemporary specifications, while the majority of our governance determinants of Gross FDI are significant, they are overwhelmingly insignificant for Net FDI. Secondly, the significance of the governance dynamics in increasing order of magnitude are general governance, political governance, economic governance, political stability, regulation quality and government effectiveness. Thirdly, for non-contemporary specifications, the significance of governance variables is as follows in ascending order of magnitude: economic governance, institutional governance, general governance, corruption-control, political governance and political stability. The importance of combining governance indicators is captured by the effects of political governance, economic governance and institutional governance. The results indicate that the simultaneous implementation of the various components of governance clarifies a country’s attractiveness for FDI location. Policy implications are discussed with particular emphasis on the timing of FDI and its targeting. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, emerging countries, governance |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 P37 P39 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/057&r=all |
| By: | Refk Selmi (IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau, ESC Pau); Youssef Errami (ESC Pau, IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau); Mark Wohar (University of Nebraska [Omaha] - University of Nebraska System) |
| Abstract: | For decades, the two economic superpowers-the U.S and China-have been integrated. But the U.S. administration under Trump presidency is now attempting to undo that, as a deepening trade rift with China affect businesses in both economies. In July, August and September 2018, the United States successively increased tariffs on a total of $250 billion in annual imports of Chinese goods, stating that it wished to safeguard U.S. companies from unfair Chinese practices and lessen the bilateral trade deficit. China responded with tariffs on $110 billion of imports from the United States. The trade tensions between the two economic superpowers have led to a significant and rapid reduction in bilateral trade in taxed goods. This paper seeks to examine the heightened uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade war to shed some light on the reactions of sectoral U.S. stock market to China tariff threats. While all sectors face increasing uncertainty, this trade war had varying sectoral effect. Specifically, the responses of information technology, industrials and energy were even more severe than the reactions of financials, consumer discretionary and staples, healthcare, real estate, aerospace and defense and utilities. Such positioning is designed to create a portfolio with balanced exposure to certain sectors for offense (information technology and industrials) and others for defense (healthcare, real estate and utilities). |
| Keywords: | US-China trade war,Tariffs,US stock market,Sectoral level analysis |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02523186&r=all |
| By: | Bertoli, Simone (CERDI, University of Auvergne); Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Guichard, Lucas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Acquiring information about destinations can be costly for migrants. We model information frictions in the rational inattention framework and obtain a closed-form expression for a migration gravity equation that we bring to the data. The model predicts that ows from countries with a higher cost of information or stronger priors are less responsive to variations in economic conditions at destination, as migrants rationally get less information before deciding where to move. The econometric analysis reveals systematic heterogeneity in the pro-cyclical behavior of migration flows across origins that is consistent with the existence of information frictions. |
| Keywords: | rational inattention, information, international migration, gravity equation |
| JEL: | F22 D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13083&r=all |
| By: | Bahar, Dany (Brookings Institution); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Turati, Riccardo (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the relationship between a country's economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that countries with higher birthplace diversity by one standard deviation are more economically complex by 0.1 to 0.18 standard deviations above the mean. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country's export basket. |
| Keywords: | economic complexity, birthplace diversity, immigration, growth |
| JEL: | F22 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13078&r=all |
| By: | Claire Naiditch (LEM - Lille économie management - LEM - UMR 9221 - Université de Lille - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Radu Vranceanu (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | The important flows of irregular migration could not exist without the emergence of a criminal market for smuggling services. A matching model à la Pissarides (2000) provides a well-suited framework to analyze such a ow market with significant trade frictions. Our analysis considers the competitive segment of this underground market in which small-business smugglers can freely enter. The model allows us to determine the equilibrium number of smugglers, the matching probability, the number of successful irregular migrants and, as an original concept, the equilibrium migrant welfare. Changes in parameters can be related to the various policies implemented by destination countries to cut down irregular migration. |
| Keywords: | Migrant welfare,Smuggling,Irregular migration,Matching model |
| Date: | 2020–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02463193&r=all |
| By: | Peri, Giovanni (University of California, Davis); Rury, Derek (University of California, Davis); Wiltshire, Justin C. (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Using a synthetic control estimation strategy we examine the economic impact of a large inflow of people from Puerto Rico into Orlando in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in September 2017. We find that aggregate employment in Orlando increased as a result of the inflow, as did employment in the construction and retail sectors. We also find positive overall employment effects on non-Hispanic and less-educated workers, as well as positive effects on compensation for those same subgroups in the retail sector. In the construction sector – which absorbed the preponderance of this migrant labor supply shock – we find that earnings for non-Hispanic and less-educated (workers likely to be natives) decreased by a modest amount. These results together suggest that, while migrant inflows may have small negative impacts on the earnings of likely-native workers in sectors directly exposed to the labor supply shock, employment and earnings of likely-native workers in other sectors are positively impacted, possibly by increased local demand. |
| Keywords: | migration, natural disasters, local economies |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J21 J61 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13049&r=all |
| By: | Alex Izurieta; Pierre Kohler; Juan Pizarro |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effects of trade and investment agreements on income distribution and government policy. The critical process underpinning these effects is the rise of ‘financialization’. Global patterns of greater financialization and of worsening functional income distribution as well as tighter fiscal stances are identified in the data. Tests are conducted by combining financial statistics with databases of bilateral investment agreements and free trade agreements, as well as data generated by the UN Global Policy Model that encompasses several fiscal policy instruments. The empirical validation of these relationships brings to the fore the policy-oriented debate about the purported benefits of modern-era ‘comprehensive’ trade and investment agreements such as TTIP, TTP and CETA. The authors corroborate the findings of their respective earlier studies of these agreements and reiterate their call for caution. To preserve policy space and to avert increases of inequality, policy-makers should resist pressures to get their economies locked in such agreements and should look instead for sustainable forms of international policy coordination. |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dae:daepap:18-02&r=all |
| By: | Hearson, Martin |
| Abstract: | Global economic governance outcomes in areas such as corporate taxation may be influenced by transnational policy communities acting at national and transnational levels. Yet, while transnational tax policy processes are increasingly analysed through the politics of expertise, national preferences have usually been derived from domestic interest group preferences. We know little about how technical expertise interacts with interest group politics at national level, an important deficit given the sovereignty-preserving, decentralised way in which transnational tax norms become hard law. This article examines the drivers of expansion of the UK’s bilateral tax treaty network in the 1970s, which cannot be explained solely through monolithic interest group politics. Evidence from the British national archives demonstrates how tax experts in the civil service and the private sector, members of a transnational policy community, used tax treaties to impose OECD standards for taxing British firms on host countries, at times overruling the preferences of other political, bureaucratic and business actors. Expertise politics and business power may shape the development of norms and focal points within a transnational policy community, but it is often their interaction at domestic level that determines the implementation of transnational norms as hard law. |
| Keywords: | Bilateral tax treaties; Developing countries; Foreign direct investment; Multinational companies; Taxation; Transnational policy communities; United Kingdom; Doctoral training grant |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2018–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:88351&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Kohler; Francis Cripps |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes to revisit the debate on trade and investment agreements (TIAs), development and inequality, looking at the role of Global Value Chains (GVCs) and transnational corporations (TNCs). It first presents stylized facts about trade and investment (agreements), declining global economic growth and rising inequality under the latest round of globalization. It then provides a long-run perspective on the mixed blessings of external opening, summarizing some key contributions of the mainstream literature, which are converging with long-standing research findings of more heterodox economists, and the eroding consensus today. Based on this stock-taking, it takes a fresh critical look at the TIAs-GVCs-TNCs nexus and their impact. Using data on value-added in trade and new firm-level data from the consolidated financial statements of the top 2000 TNCs going back to 1995, it examines whether the fragmentation of production along GVCs led to positive structural change or rather stimulated unsustainable trends in extractive and FIRE sectors. It then turns to the role of TNC-driven GVCs as a vehicle for economic concentration. Finally, it presents evidence linking TIAs and their correlates to rising inequality. Key findings include the fact that the ratio of top 2000 TNCs profits over revenues increased by 58 percent between 1995 and 2015. Moreover, the rise in top 2000 TNCs profits accounts for 69 percent of the 2.5 percentage points decline in the global labour income share between 1995 and 2015, with the correlation coefficient between annual changes in both variables as high as 0.82. The paper concludes by calling for a less ideological policy debate on TIAs, which acknowledges the mixed blessings of external financial and trade opening, especially their negative distributional impact and destabilizing macro-financial feedback effects, which both call for policy intervention. As an alternative to short-sighted protectionism, it further discusses possible options for anticipating undesirable effects arising from TIAs (e.g. rising carbon emissions, economic instability, inequality, etc.) and addressing those in TIAs themselves. |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dae:daepap:18-03&r=all |
| By: | Akintoye V. Adejumo (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | Globally, investments in physical and human capital have been identified to foster real economic growth and development in any economy. Investments, which could be domestic or foreign, have been established in the literature as either complements or substitutes in varying scenarios. While domestic investments bring about endogenous growth processes, foreign investment, though may be exogenous to growth, has been identified to bring about productivity and ecological spillovers. In view of these competing–conflicting perspectives, this chapter examines the differential impacts of domestic and foreign investments on green growth in Nigeria during the period 1970-2017. The empirical evidence is based on Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality estimates. Also, the study articulates the prospects for growth sustainability via domestic or foreign investments in Nigeria. The results show that domestic investment increases CO2 emissions in the short run while foreign investment decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. When the dataset is decomposed into three sub-samples in the light of cycles of investments within the trend analysis, findings of the third sub-sample (i.e. 2001-2017) reveal that both types of investments decrease CO2 emissions in the long run while only domestic investment has a negative effect on CO2 emissions in the short run. This study therefore concludes that as short-run distortions even out in the long-run, FDI and domestic investments has prospects for sustainable development in Nigeria through green growth. |
| Keywords: | Investments; Productivity; Sustainability; Growth |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/078&r=all |
| By: | David Kunst; Richard B. Freeman; Remco Oostendorp |
| Abstract: | Firms hire workers to undertake tasks and activities associated with particular occupations, which makes occupations a fundamental unit in economic analyses of the labor market. Using a unique set of data on pay in identically defined occupations in developing and advanced countries, we find that occupational pay differentials narrowed substantially from the 1950s to the 1980s, then widened through the 2000s in most countries, creating a U-shaped pattern of change. The narrowing was due in part to the huge worldwide increase in the supply of educated workers. The subsequent widening was due in part to the weakening of trade unions and a shift in demand to more skilled workers associated with rising trade. The data indicate that supply, demand, and institutional forces are all drivers of occupational differentials, ruling out simple single factor explanations of change. The paper concludes with a call for improving the collection of occupational wage data to understand future changes in the world of work. |
| JEL: | F1 I2 J2 J3 J5 O3 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26863&r=all |
| By: | Orrenius, Pia M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Zavodny, Madeline (University of North Florida); Abraham, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | Immigration, like any positive labor supply shock, should increase the return to capital and spur business investment. These changes should have a positive impact on business creation and expansion, particularly in areas that receive large immigrant inflows. Despite this clear prediction, there is sparse empirical evidence on the effect of immigration on business dynamics. One reason may be data unavailability since public-access firm-level data are rare. This study examines the impact of immigration on business dynamics and employment by combining U.S. data on immigrant inflows from the Current Population Survey with data on business formation and survival and job creation and destruction from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database for the period 1997 to 2013. The results indicate that immigration increases the business growth rate by boosting business survival and raises employment by reducing job destruction. The effects are largely driven by less-educated immigrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration, business dynamics, firm entry, firm exit, job creation, job destruction |
| JEL: | J15 J61 L25 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13014&r=all |
| By: | Joshua AIZENMAN; ITO Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the political-economy trilemma: policy makers face a trade-off of choosing two out of three policy goals or governance styles, namely, (hyper-)globalization, national sovereignty, and democracy. We develop a set of indexes that measure the extent of attainment of the three factors for 139 countries in the period of 1975-2016. Using these indexes, we examine the validity of the hypothesis of the political-economy trilemma by testing whether the three trilemma variables are linearly related. We find that, for industrialized countries, there is a linear relationship between globalization and national sovereignty (i.e., a dilemma), and that for developing countries, all three indexes are linearly correlated (i.e., a trilemma). We also investigate whether and how three political-economic factors affect the degree of political and financial stability. The results indicate that more democratic industrialized countries tend to experience more political instability, while developing countries tend to be able to stabilize their politics if they are more democratic. The lower level of national sovereignty an industrialized country attains, the more stable its political situation tends to be, while a higher level of sovereignty helps a developing country to stabilize its politics. Globalization brings about political stability for both groups of countries. Furthermore, more globalized countries, whether industrial or developing, tend to experience more financial stability. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:20018&r=all |
| By: | Sinha, Apra; Kumar, Abhishek; Gopalakrishnan, Badri Narayanan |
| Abstract: | There has been limited empirical work done in the recent past to test the hypotheses of EKC and PH. Results obtained in this paper validate EKC hypothesis for total carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emissions from liquid fuel consumption from a panel of countries. This is robust to inclusion of additional covariates and division of countries on the basis of income. Financial development increases total emissions in high income countries whereas it decreases emissions in non high income countries in the long run. Trade to GDP ratio does not affect emissions significantly in case of high income countries. In case of non high income countries, trade to GDP ratio increases the emissions from solid fuel in the long run. Also in case of non high income countries increase in trade to GDP ratio increases total emissions and emissions from liquid fuel consumption in short run. Therefore, there is evidence in favour of pollution haven hypothesis in short run. It is logical as we expect the emissions shifting aspect of trade to be operative in short run whereas in long run the trade should be determined by comparative advantages. |
| Keywords: | Environment; CO2 emissions; Kuznets Curve; International Trade; Development |
| JEL: | Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98930&r=all |
| By: | TOMIURA Eiichi; ITO Banri; MUKUNOKI Hiroshi; WAKASUGI Ryuhei |
| Abstract: | Protectionist trade policies are increasingly observed in many countries. We need to explore which characteristics of individuals influence support for protectionist policies. For this purpose, we conduct a survey of 10,000 individuals in Japan. This review article summarizes the main findings from our project on trade policy preferences and discusses their policy implications. We confirm the impacts of previously well-established factors, such as occupation, industry, and education, but discover significant effects of behavioral biases. We also detect relationships with regional characteristics. Our research results suggest that various policy measures, not limited to traditional income compensation or insurance schemes, are required to widen support for trade liberalization. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:20006&r=all |
| By: | Köllő, János (Institute of Economics, Budapest); Boza, István (Central European University, Budapest); Balázsi, László (Central European University, Budapest) |
| Abstract: | We compare wages in multinational enterprises (MNEs) versus domestic firms, the earnings of domestic firm workers with past, future and no MNE experience, and estimate how the presence of ex-MNE peers affects the earnings of domestic firm employees. The analysis relies on monthly panel data covering half of the Hungarian population and their employers in 2003-2011. We identify the returns to MNE experience from changes of ownership, wages paid by new firms of different ownership, and the movement of workers between enterprises. We find high contemporaneous and lagged returns to MNE experience and significant spillover effects. Foreign acquisition has a moderate wage impact but there is a wide gap between new MNEs and domestic firms. The findings suggest that MNE experience is valued in the high-wage segment of the local economy, connected with the MNEs via worker turnover. |
| Keywords: | wage differentials, foreign direct investment, Hungary, multinational enterprises, wage spillover |
| JEL: | F23 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13040&r=all |
| By: | Knutsson, Polina (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a quasi-natural experiment to study the channels of labor market adjustment to an import shock. Using matched employer-employee data from Sweden, I study workers' adjustment after the removal of quotas set out by the Multi-Fiber Arrangement for Chinese producers upon China's entry into the WTO. I find evidence of substantial losses in terms of earnings and employment. Sectoral mobility mitigates a portion of these losses, but gives rise to substantial adjustment frictions. The largest losses accrue to workers with skills specific to the exposed industry. Some losses are recovered through mobility across labor markets, but only workers in high-skill occupations benefit from this channel. I also show that skill specificity of the local labor market is an important determinant of adjustment and provide evidence of skill upgrading in response to the import shock. |
| Keywords: | Import competition; worker mobility; human capital |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2020_003&r=all |
| By: | Chu, Amanda M.Y.; Lv, Zhihui; Wagner, Niklas F.; Wong, Wing-Keung |
| Abstract: | We investigate growth determinants for Mongolia as a small emerging economy considering China as its large neighbor. Our causality analysis during January 1992 to August 2017 reveals significant linear and nonlinear relationships in growth explanation. China’s GDP and coal prices, together with some of their linear and nonlinear lagged components, predict Mongolia’s GDP, where a one percent increase in China’s GDP relates to an increase in Mongolia of 1.5 percent. Current exchange rates and the nonlinear components of lagged levels of consumer prices also explain growth. Our results underline the role of macroeconomic drivers of growth in emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | gross domestic product (GDP); economic growth; energy prices; coal prices; consumer prices; foreign direct investment (FDI); exchange rates; cointegration; multivariate Granger causality; nonlinear Granger causality; |
| JEL: | C53 E52 F42 |
| Date: | 2020–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99185&r=all |
| By: | Wolfgang Keller; Markus Lampe; Carol H. Shiue |
| Abstract: | This paper describes broad regional and temporal trends in the evolution of international trade and international factor flows between 1700 and 1870, including key differences in trade costs across space and time. We find trade links in Western Europe and the European colonies of North America intensified at the same time these regions experienced the initial industrial revolution and the spread of industrialization, which led to sustained economic growth. At the same time, global differences in specialization and income emerged. To understand the contribution of global market forces, as well as colonialism to these differences, the chapter lays out theoretical reasons for links between trade and economic growth and examines related historical arguments and evidence. We conclude that trade contributed to global divergence, but the magnitude and mechanisms through which trade affected global welfare lies not so much in the direct impact of trade and specialization, but in multiplier effects emerging from the interactions of trade with other factors that affect economic development. |
| JEL: | N10 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26865&r=all |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Viola von Berlepsch |
| Abstract: | Does past migration beget future migration? Do migrants from different backgrounds, origins and ethnicities, and separated by several generations always settle – in a path dependent way – in the same places? Is there a permanent separation between migration-prone and migration-averse areas? This paper examines whether that is the case by looking at the settlement patterns of two very different migration waves to the United States (US), that of Europeans at the end of the 19th and early 20th centuries and that of Latin Americans between the 1960s and the early 21st century. Using Census data aggregated at county level, we track the settlement pattern of migrants and assess the extent to which the first mass migration wave has determined the later settlement pattern of Latin American migrants. The analysis, conducted using ordinary least squares, instrumental variable and panel data estimation techniques, shows that past US migration patterns create a path dependence that has conditioned the geography of future migration waves. Recent Latin American migrants have flocked, once other factors are controlled for, to the same migration prone US counties where their European predecessors settled, in spite of the very different nature of both migration waves and a time gap of three to five generations. |
| Keywords: | migration, migration waves, long-term, Latin America, Europe, counties, US |
| JEL: | F22 J15 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2022&r=all |
| By: | Aalto, Eero; Gustafsson, Robin |
| Abstract: | Abstract We review the extant research on the government export promotion policy interventions, concentrating on export promotion agencies (EPA). Based on the research literature, the review synthesizes export promotion policy intervention rationale and economic justifications for the intervention, impact evaluations of the export promotion interventions, and current forms of export promotion. We identify two types of information related market failures, information spillovers and information asymmetry, justifying public intervention and use of public funds to support firm exporting. Furthermore, four distinct economic and non-economic policy outcome objectives can be identified, accrued in the firm, industry or macro-economic level from increased exporting. Export promotion policy intervention as such impacts both export performance of firms, as well as industry and macro-economic performance of a country. However, export promotion impact studies indicate heterogenous effects on countries, firms, export barrier types, markets and products. With regards to policy interventions, it is especially SME firms who lack key competences to operate in the foreign markets. EPA services can help SMEs to overcome the external and internal barriers to internationalization by providing information, training, and other types of support as external resources. Public policy interventions are as such a means to share risks and to offer motivational stimuli for the SME executives to seek growth in the foreign markets. |
| Keywords: | Export promotion, Export promotion agencies, Impact evaluation, Policy rationales |
| JEL: | D83 F20 L15 N70 |
| Date: | 2020–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:100&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of globalization-fuelled regionalization policies on financial allocation efficiency in four economic and monetary regions in Africa for the period 1980 to 2008. Banking system and financial system efficiency proxies are used as dependent variables whereas seven bundled and unbundled globalization variables are employed as independent indicators. The bundling exercise is achieved by means of principal component analysis while the empirical evidence is based on interactive Fixed Effects regressions. The following findings are established. First, financial allocation efficiency is more sensitive to financial openness compared to trade openness and most sensitive to globalization. The relationship between allocation efficiency and globalization-fuelled regionalization policies is: (i) Kuznets or inverted U-shape in the UEMOA and CEMAC zones (evidence of decreasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization) and (ii) U-shape overwhelmingly in the COMESA and scantily in the EAC (increasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization). Established shapes are relevant to specific globalization dynamics within regions. Economic and monetary regions are more prone to surplus liquidity than purely economic regions. Policy implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Financial Development; Regional Integration; Panel; Africa |
| JEL: | A10 D60 E40 O10 P50 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/085&r=all |
| By: | Ansala, Laura (City of Helsinki); Aslund, Olof (IFAU); Sarvimäki, Matti (Aalto University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between past immigration experiences of the host country and the way new immigrants enter the labor market. We focus on two countries—Finland and Sweden—that have similar formal institutions but starkly different immigration histories. In both countries, immigrants tend to find their first jobs in low-paying establishments, where the manager and colleagues share their ethnic background. The associations between background characteristics, time to first job, other entry job characteristics, earnings dynamics and job stability are also remarkably similar. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the host country's immigration history plays a limited role in shaping the integration process. |
| Keywords: | immigration, labor market integration, ethnic segregation, entry jobs |
| JEL: | J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13089&r=all |
| By: | Haas, Levi; Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R. |
| Abstract: | International trade is currently under fire from many sides. Protectionist trade policies are on the rise, putting an end to the decade-long march of free trade. Making sense of the daily headlines and having an informed opinion on your own has rarely been more important than it is now. Our work aims to explain the driving forces behind international trade, its history, how it shaped the world, its economic models, issues ranging from job losses to the environment and why eating kangaroos is better than buying local. We summarize the most important academic literature on these topics in a non-technical, educational manner. If the readers conclude that our report has been useful in forming their own views on the pros and cons of international trade and that they can `talk the talk', we are gratified with the fruit of our work. |
| Keywords: | International trade, survey. |
| JEL: | A2 A22 F1 |
| Date: | 2019–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99096&r=all |
| By: | Stephen T. Onifade (Selçuk University, Konya,Turkey); Ahmet Ay (Selçuk University, Konya,Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | The recent exacerbation of unemployment crisis in Nigeria stands to be a serious threat to both socio-economic stability and progress of the country just as the report from the nation’s bureau of statistics shows that at least over 8.5 million people had no gainful employment at all as at the last quarter of the year 2017. It is on the above premise, that the present study explores the link between trade and unemployment for the case of Nigeria with the intention of exploring how the unemployment crisis has been impacted within the dynamics of the country’s trade performance. The empirical evidence shows that the nation’s terms of trade were insignificant to unemployment rate while trade openness and domestic investment, on the other hand, have significant opposing impacts on unemployment in Nigeria over the period of the study. Further breakdowns from the empirical analysis also revealed that the Philips curves proposition is valid within the Nigerian economic context while the evidences for the validity of Okun’s law only exist in the short-run scenario. Based on the empirical results, we recommend that concerted effort should be geared toward stimulating domestic investment by providing adequate financial and infrastructural facilities that will promote ease of doing business while utmost precautions are taken to ensure that unemployment crisis is not exacerbated when combating inflation in the economy in the wake of dynamic trade relations. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria; Unemployment; Trade; Phillips Curves; Okun’s law |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/079&r=all |
| By: | David Lagakos; Samuel Marshall; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Corey Vernot; Michael E. Waugh |
| Abstract: | Recent studies find that observational returns to rural-urban migration are near zero in three developing countries. We revisit this result using panel tracking surveys from six countries, finding higher returns on average. We then interpret these returns in a multi-region Roy model with heterogeneity in migration costs. In the model, the observational return to migration confounds the urban premium and the individual benefits of migrants, and is not directly informative about the welfare gain from lowering migration costs. Patterns of regional heterogeneity in returns, and a comparison of experimental to observational returns, are consistent with the model’s predictions. |
| JEL: | O11 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26868&r=all |
| By: | Ojo, Marianne; DiGabriele, Jim; Serrano Caballero, Enriqueta; Joshi, Amol; Lahiri, Nandini; Im, Hemmatian |
| Abstract: | The financial markets have regained grounds following losses in recent weeks. However the current global outlook remains largely uncertain. The decision of the Federal Reserve to announce its emergency rate cut on the 3rd March 2020, the first since the Financial Crisis, sent shock waves amongst investors with the Dow tumbling nearly 1,000 points following what was regarded as the “surprising” announcement . Even though stocks have fluctuated in recent weeks, stock markets have rebound since the Tuesday announcement. Recent events have demonstrated the importance of engaging technologies and techniques to address matters of global significance – particularly those which impact economically, socially and environmentally, in a holistic and futuristic manner – taking into account the interests of future generations. Humanity and global relationships are shaped and defined, not just through the manner in which global issues are addressed, but the techniques and responsibilities towards others, at a global level also, in deploying such techniques. (The show cased chapter Conflict Framing, Multilateral Leadership, and Coalition Formation in International Trade Disputes, 1995 – 2011 is funded in part by a grant from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation). The major component of the volume "Rethinking Regulation and Monetary Policies: Recent Developments" accounting for 80 percent of the volume, cannot be highlighted/uploaded for copyright reasons) |
| Keywords: | interest rates, emergency rates, COVID-19, monetary policy, financial markets, emerging technologies |
| JEL: | E5 F2 F6 F62 F64 F65 K2 M4 |
| Date: | 2020–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98969&r=all |