nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2020‒01‒20
35 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Are African exports that weak ? A trade in value-added approach By NJIKE, ARNOLD
  2. The impact of Brexit uncertainties on international trade : Evidence from Belgium By Emerson Erik Schmitz
  3. Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism By Kyle Handley; Fariha Kamal; Ryan Monarch
  4. Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the trade in goods of the United States, Canada and Mexico By Piotr K?tski
  5. Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective By Maria Borga; Perla Ibarlucea Flores; Monika Sztajerowska
  6. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty By Tarek Alexander Hassan; Stephan Hollander; Laurence van Lent; Ahmed Tahoun
  7. Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective By Mary Amiti; Stephen J. Redding; David E. Weinstein
  8. Exporting Through Intermediaries: Impact on Export Dynamics and Welfare By Parisa Kamali
  9. The perils of crossing borders: The financial constraints of Brazilian exporters during the 2009 Global Trade Collapse By Stella Mendes Carneiro; Marcio Issao Nakane
  10. Misreported Trade By Mohammad Farhad; Michael Jetter; Abu Siddique; Andrew Williams
  11. Manufacturing Export and ICT Infrastructure in West Africa: Investigating the Roles of Economic and Political Institutions By Ibukun Beecroft; Evans S. Osabuohien; Uchenna R. Efobi; Isaiah Olurinola; Romanus A. Osabohien
  12. Services exported together with goods By Charles Cadestin; Sébastien Miroudot
  13. Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter? By Gustavo Adler; Sergii Meleshchuk; Carolina Osorio Buitron
  14. Trade Liberalization, Input Intermediaries and Firm Productivity: Evidence from China By Fabrice Defever; Michele Imbruno; Richard Kneller
  15. Human Capitalists and the Global Division of Labor By Jan Schymik
  16. Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs By Chen, Natalie; Juvenal, Luciana
  17. The mining global value chain By Jane Korinek
  18. Estimating the Gains from Trade in Frictional Local Labor Markets By Germàn Pupato; Ben Sand; Jeanne Tschopp
  19. Carbon fueling complex global value chains tripled in the period 1995-2012 By Hertwich, Edgar
  20. The Mutable Geography of Firms' International Trade: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications By Lu Han
  21. Chinese Export Competition Affects the Exports of Firms from Finland By Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina
  22. Import Inflows of Bangladesh: The Gravity Model Approach By Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Uddin, Gazi Salah; Taufique, Khan Md. Raziuddin
  23. Central and Eastern Europe’s dependent development in German automotive value chains By Tamas Gerocs; Andras Pinkasz
  25. Income Inequality and International Economic Law: From Flint, Michigan to the Doha Round, and Back By Thomas, Chantal; Library, Cornell
  26. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report. By Breznau, Nate; Rinke, Eike Mark; Wuttke, Alexander; Adem, Muna; Adriaans, Jule; Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia; Andersen, Henrik Kenneth; Auer, Daniel; Azevedo, Flavio; Bahnsen, Oke
  27. Analysis of time series to examine the impact of the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR) on European timber trade By Becher, Georg
  28. Globalization and Economic Growth in CEMAC: The Role of Complementarities By Mbiankeu Nguea, Stéphane
  29. Global Value Chain and International Alliance Strategy Review By Hadi, Wibisono Rachman
  30. The Long Arm of the Arab State By Tsourapas, Gerasimos
  31. Agricultural exports and economic development in Spain during the first wave of globalisation By María-Isabel Ayuda; Vicente Pinilla
  32. Import processing zones, tools for regional integration? The case of the free trade zone of Manaus (Brazil) By NJIKE, ARNOLD
  33. World Trade and Investment Law in a Time of Crisis: Distribution, Development and Social Protection By Library, Cornell; Trubek, David M.; Santos, Alvaro; Thomas, Chantal
  34. Protection without Protectionism? Foreign Investment Screening in Europe and the V4 Countries Today : A Comparative Analysis By Tamas Peragovics
  35. Effect of environmental and altruistic attitudes on willingness-to-pay for organic and fair trade coffee in Flanders By L Maaya; M Meulders; N Surmont; Martina Vandebroek

    Abstract: African countries are known to export less than any other group of countries in the world. Numerous studies have pointed out the high level of transport costs related to the lousy quality of transport infrastructures in the African continent to be the main explanation of this situation. We first show that depending on the estimator used, African countries on aggregate do not trade necessary less than the average country in the world when it comes to gross exports, even if they underperform clearly as regards final goods exports. We also formulate a model for trade in value-added by adapting the Anderson and Van Wincoop’s gravity equation to take into account the structure of value-added exports. The proposed model highlights the importance of indirect trade costs, which are trade costs of third countries through which the exported value-added of the origin country passes to reach its final destination. When we control for these indirect trade costs, it appears that the penalty on the direct trade costs between African countries’ and their partners is at least two times lower for value-added exports than what is predicted for gross exports and even six times lower in comparison to final goods exports.
    Keywords: Global value chains, Gravity model, trade costs, African trade
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2019–09–02
  2. By: Emerson Erik Schmitz (Tilburg University and Central Bank of Brazil)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the short-run effects of the uncertainties brought along with the Brexit referendum on the bilateral trade between Belgium and its main trading partners. I find that import and export markets have specific dynamics and react differently to changes in political uncertainty and economic variables. While import flows are more rigid and do not react to the uncertainties related to the Brexit referendum, export flows are more sensitive to this event. Consequently, I find that the instable environment created by the Brexit referendum leads to lower intensive margin of Belgian exports to the UK in comparison to Belgium’s’ main neighboring countries. The impact of uncertainties is more pronounced in larger Belgian exporting firms in the period preceding the Brexit referendum, since these firms are better able to absorb the associated costs of postponing or diverting exports. The results for Belgian manufacturing firms, which are more responsive to changes in competitiveness, also suggest more intense reaction to the Brexit uncertainties than commodities’ producers but are not conclusive.
    Keywords: Brexit, European Union, political uncertainty, international trade, exchange rates
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F31 F60
    Date: 2019–12
  3. By: Kyle Handley; Fariha Kamal; Ryan Monarch
    Abstract: We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and represented 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from the underlying firm micro data. More exposed products experienced 2 percentage point lower growth relative to products with no exposure. The decline in exports is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on U.S. exports of almost 2% for the typical product and almost 4% for products with higher than average exposure.
    JEL: F1 F13 F14 F23 H2
    Date: 2020–01
  4. By: Piotr K?tski (Maria Curie-Sk?odowska University, Lublin)
    Abstract: The aim is to investigate the effect of the entry into force of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the development of trade relations between the signatories (the United States, Canada and Mexico). The analysis was based on the data regarding trade values between the parties to the treaty in years 1994-2017. Moreover, their market share in overall imports and exports is compared for start and end years. Data used come from the World Bank, Statistics Canada and U.S. Census Bureau. It can be concluded that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has had a mixed effect on the bilateral trade relations within the bloc.
    Keywords: NAFTA, United States, Mexico, Canada, free trade agreement, import, export
    JEL: F10 F15
    Date: 2019–10
  5. By: Maria Borga (OECD); Perla Ibarlucea Flores (OECD); Monika Sztajerowska (OECD)
    Abstract: Divestment by multinational enterprises is an important yet understudied phenomenon. The few available estimates indicate that about a fifth of all foreign affiliates are divested every five years. This paper presents the findings from a novel cross-country firm-level dataset with financial and ownership information for over 62 000 foreign-owned affiliates from a selection of 41 OECD and G20 countries and their economic groups from 164 home countries for the period 2007-2014. The data allow an assessment of the relative importance of different determinants of divestment in a cross-country setting, including host country policies and bilateral factors, including trade, investment and tax agreements. The findings confirm that parents divested about one of every five foreign-owned affiliates between 2007-2014 and show that a number of host country policy and economic factors, including labour costs and international trade agreements, influence the divestment decision, on top of the firm considerations considered in previous studies.
    Keywords: Bilateral Investment Treaties, Divestment, Double Taxation Agreements, International Investment, Multinational Firms, Preferential Trade Agreements
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F23 F53
    Date: 2020–01–15
  6. By: Tarek Alexander Hassan; Stephan Hollander; Laurence van Lent; Ahmed Tahoun
    Abstract: Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world; these measures are based on the proportion of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on the costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK's intention to leave the EU. We identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate effects of the different types of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty extends far beyond British or even European firms; US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have also reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects from Brexit (the first moment) should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, limited trade access, and the costs of post-Brexit operational adjustments. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet significantly affected firm actions.
    JEL: D8 E22 E24 E32 E6 F0 G18 G32 G38 H32
    Date: 2020–01
  7. By: Mary Amiti; Stephen J. Redding; David E. Weinstein
    Abstract: Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.
    JEL: F13 F14 F68
    Date: 2020–01
  8. By: Parisa Kamali
    Abstract: In many countries, a sizable share of international trade is carried out by intermediaries. While large firms tend to export to foreign markets directly, smaller firms typically export via intermediaries (indirect exporting). I document a set of facts that characterize the dynamic nature of indirect exporting using firm-level data from Vietnam and develop a dynamic trade model with both direct and indirect exporting modes and customer accumulation. The model is calibrated to match the dynamic moments of the data. The calibration yields fixed costs of indirect exporting that are less than a third of those of direct exporting, the variable costs of indirect exporting are twice higher, and demand for the indirectly exported products grows more slowly. Decomposing the gains from indirect and direct exporting, I find that 18 percent of the gains from trade in Vietnam are generated by indirect exporters. Finally, I demonstrate that a dynamic model that excludes the indirect exporting channel will overstate the welfare gains associated with trade liberalization by a factor of two.
    Date: 2019–12–27
  9. By: Stella Mendes Carneiro; Marcio Issao Nakane
    Abstract: This paper explores the 2008–2009 Global Trade Collapse to estimate the effects of a credit supply shock on exporters’ investment decisions. Using a Brazilian firm-level dataset compiled by the Brazilian Internal Revenue Service (IRS) over the 2007–2013 period, we pair export-intensive firms with their domestically oriented counterparts. We subsequently calculate the differences in terms of the sensitivity of investment to cash flow between these two groups over the years. After controlling for the effect of international falling demand, our study reveals that exporters are more severely constrained than their peers in the control group only in 2009, when the supply of credit instruments to finance international trade decreased. Given their high need for external financing to support exporting activities and the volatility of the cost of trade finance, which is usually priced against the 3-month LIBOR, our results are in line with our expectations. A number of robustness and placebo tests confirm the validity of the findings.
    Keywords: credit constraints; international trade collapse; investment decisions
    JEL: G32 E22 E51
    Date: 2020–01–15
  10. By: Mohammad Farhad; Michael Jetter; Abu Siddique; Andrew Williams
    Abstract: We propose a methodology to measure misreported trade across countries and over time in a consistent and comparable manner. Our methodology does not require a priori assumptions about which countries may be more or less likely to misreport. We derive seven indices on overall misreporting, as well as over- and under-reporting of trade, exports, and imports. Exploring bilateral trade data from 1996-2015, we derive country and product rankings and discuss prominent cases, such as China. We conclude with an application, documenting positive and statistically meaningful correlations of tariff and VAT rates with our import under-reporting index, even after controlling for potentially confounding factors.
    Keywords: international trade, trade misreporting, tariff evasion
    JEL: D73 F13 F14 H26
    Date: 2019–08
  11. By: Ibukun Beecroft (Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Evans S. Osabuohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Uchenna R. Efobi (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Isaiah Olurinola (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria); Romanus A. Osabohien (Covenant University, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria)
    Abstract: Investment in ICT infrastructure development is crucial to international trade through its provision of reliable interconnectedness via communication. This can be augmented via institutional intervention, which addresses opportunistic or rent-seeking behaviours of ICT infrastructure providers and reduces operational costs, among others. However, ICT infrastructural provision in West Africa remains low, necessitating the current drive by the regional economic community (ECOWAS) to make some advancement in this regard for enhanced trade outcomes of members. With the aim of unbundling institutional framework in the infrastructure-export nexus, this study empirically examines the relationship between manufacturing export and ICT infrastructure and articulates how economic and political institutions influence such interaction. Focusing on 14 West African countries, the study uses the Systems Generalised Method of Moments (SGMM) technique to address possible issues of endogeneity and reverse causality. The results reveal that in the face of improved economic and political institutions, particularly those related to enforcement of contracts, the influence of ICT infrastructure in strengthening the exporting capacity from the manufacturing sector is greater. In addition, some measures of economic and political institutions matter more than others. The study recommends that ECOWAS countries promote better institutional quality, particularly in terms of transparency, accountability, corruption control, regulatory quality and the rule of law.
    Keywords: Dynamic panel data; Infrastructural provision; Infrastructural development; Institutional framework; Institutional quality; Manufacturing export; Manufacturing value added
    JEL: F14 O14 O17 O43 P45
    Date: 2019–01
  12. By: Charles Cadestin (OECD); Sébastien Miroudot (OECD)
    Abstract: How prevalent are services sold together with goods? Using aggregate and micro-data, this report assesses this prevalence so as to gain a better understanding of how firms combine goods and services in their exports. Leaving aside the specific case of distribution services, 'Other business services', 'Construction' and 'Research and development' are the most common services supplied by manufacturing firms. With respect to industries, 'paper and printing', as well as 'repair and installation' come first in terms of prevalence of bundles of goods and services. Since the trade regime is different for trade in goods and trade in services, manufacturing firms engaged in servitisation strategies may face higher trade barriers just by expanding their activities in sectors that are less open to trade. When negotiating trade agreements, policy makers need to take into account complementarities between goods and services, and look at the joint restrictiveness for goods and services.
    Keywords: services, servicification, servitisation, trade in services, trade policy
    JEL: F13 F23 L16 L80
    Date: 2020–01–14
  13. By: Gustavo Adler; Sergii Meleshchuk; Carolina Osorio Buitron
    Abstract: The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater integration into international value chains reduces the exchange rate elasticity of gross trade volumes. This result holds both in the short and medium term, pointing to the rigidity of value chains. At the same time, greater value chain integration is associated with larger gross trade flows, relative to GDP, which tends to amplify the effect of exchange rate movements. Overall, combining these two results suggests that, for most countries, integration into global value chains does not materially alter the working of exchange rates and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility in facilitating external adjustment remain.
    Date: 2019–12–27
  14. By: Fabrice Defever; Michele Imbruno; Richard Kneller
    Abstract: We investigate theoretically and empirically the role of wholesalers in mediating the productivity effects of trade liberalization. Intermediaries provide indirect access to foreign produced inputs. The productivity effects of input tariff cuts on firms that do not directly import therefore depends on the extent that wholesalers are a feature of input supply within an industry. Using firm level data from China, we document that wholesalers play no such role for direct importers. However, other firms experience productivity gains from reducing input tariffs if trade intermediation of foreign inputs within their sector is high. They suffer efficiency losses otherwise.
    Keywords: firm heterogeneity, trade liberalization, intermediate inputs, productivity, intermediaries, China
    JEL: F12 F13
    Date: 2019
  15. By: Jan Schymik
    Abstract: Many corporate top earners are compensated with equity claims on firms’ profits. This paper investigates the consequences of trade-induced economic reallocation on the compensation structure of top earners. I introduce managerial equity ownership into a model of heterogeneous firms to show that reallocation of economic activity towards large, import intensive firms raises the prevalence of equity ownership within these firms. Calibrating the model suggests that equity ownership responds more elastically to globalization than labor incomes such that focusing on the income skill premium fundamentally underestimates the returns to globalization for top earners. I then combine data on equity ownership and income streams for British and U.S. top managers with international I-O tables and firm level data to study this relation empirically. Using a shift-share instrumentation strategy, I find that improved access to global input markets raises the value of equity ownership for managers of large and importing firms altering the compensation structure towards lower labor income shares. This suggests that intra-industry reallocation can raise top inequality and the prevalence of capital incomes for top earners.
    Keywords: Top Inequality, Offshoring, Equity Ownership
    JEL: F14 F16 J33 L22
    Date: 2020–01
  16. By: Chen, Natalie (University of Warwick); Juvenal, Luciana (International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: We investigate theoretically and empirically how exporters adjust their markups across destinations depending on bilateral distance, tariffs, and the quality of their exports. Under the assumption that trade costs are both ad valorem and per unit, our model predicts that markups rise with distance and fall with tariffs, but these effects are heterogeneous and are smaller in magnitude for higher quality exports. We find strong support for the predictions of the model using a unique data set of Argentinean firm-level wine exports combined with experts wine ratings as a measure of quality.
    Keywords: Distance; export unit values; heterogeneity; markups; quality; tariffs; trade costs; wine JEL Classification: F12, F14, F31
    Date: 2019
  17. By: Jane Korinek (OECD)
    Abstract: The mining sector accounts for a substantial share of exports and GDP in some countries, but rarely creates many direct jobs. This paper examines the mining sector using a value chain perspective, looking at both direct and indirect inputs and outputs. It finds that inputs from other sectors, in particular services, represent an opportunity for some minerals-rich countries. This paper aims to shed light on what those opportunities might be, and on some of the policies that influence whether or not such sectors emerge and develop.
    Keywords: embodied services, extractive industries, global value chains, GVCs, input-output methodology, mining
    JEL: F1 F13 F60 F63 O33 Q32 Q37 Q38
    Date: 2020–01–14
  18. By: Germàn Pupato; Ben Sand; Jeanne Tschopp
    Abstract: We develop a theory and an empirical strategy to estimate the welfare gains of economic integration in economies with frictional local labor markets. The model yields a welfare formula that nests previous results in the literature and features an additional adjustment margin, via the employment rate, that generates new insights. We show that the quantitative impact of this new channel depends on the goods market structure and on the degree of firm heterogeneity. To obtain causal estimates of the two key structural parameters needed for the welfare analysis, the trade elasticity and the elasticity of substitution in consumption, we propose a theoretically-consistent identification strategy that exploits exogenous variation in production costs driven by differences in industrial composition across local labor markets. As an application, we exploit Germany's rapid trade integration with China and Eastern Europe between 1988 and 2008 to assess the quantitative importance of accounting for unemployment changes when computing the gains from trade across local labor markets in West Germany. Under monopolistic competition with free entry and firm heterogeneity, the median welfare gains in the frictional setting are 6% larger relative to the frictionless setting. The relative welfare gains are typically more modest under alternative market structures.
    Keywords: Welfare gains from trade, trade elasticity, local labor markets, unemployment, wages, search and bargaining
    JEL: F12 F16 J31 J60
    Date: 2019–08
  19. By: Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Complex global value chains are those involving more than two countries and imply that a country imports products as capital goods or intermediate inputs to the production of its exports. When tracing the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of traded products, for example for border carbon adjustments, such emissions are counted at each border crossing. The prevalence and dynamics of this phenomenon have been poorly understood. This paper shows that GHG emissions associated with the production of imports used for producing exports have risen rapidly from 1995, peaking in 2012 and declining slightly to 2016. They now constitute a total of 4.4 PgCO2equ. or 10% of global emissions. The most important exported products in terms of emissions associated with imported inputs are chemicals, vehicles, machinery, and information and communications technology (ICT). Crude petroleum, iron and steel, chemicals, and ICT components are the imported products being used for this export production. A driver analysis indicates that in industrialized countries, the declining domestic value added in exports and increasing share of exports in GDP have contributed most to this development, while in emerging economies, the growth of GDP itself has been an important driving factor, while declines in the energy intensity of export production have provided a weak counterbalance. The importance of transiting carbon raises questions of how climate policies affect industrial competitiveness and how border tax adjustment would account for such emissions.
    Date: 2018–11–29
  20. By: Lu Han
    Abstract: Exporters add and drop destination markets in response to a variety of global, national and industry-specific shocks. This paper develops empirical measures of these market changes and documents a set of key stylized facts using the customs databases of China (2000-2006) and the United Kingdom (2010-2016). First, I find within-firm changes in destination markets involve large trade values and 30-40% of all market changes involve simultaneously adding and dropping markets. Second, around 20% of within-firm market changes are driven by fluctuations in bilateral exchange rates and local CPI measures. Taken together, these facts suggest that firms face large destination-specific fluctuations in the demand for their products. Third, while adding and dropping markets, firms simultaneously adjust prices and quantities across all other destinations they serve. I build a multi-country general equilibrium model to investigate the channels that can generate the observed data patterns and study the aggregate implications of mutable markets (within-firm market changes) on the distribution of markups, trade volumes, and welfare. Applying the multi-country model to analysis of a bilateral trade war, I find that aggregate productivity for countries directly involved in the trade war drops more (1-2%) and that of countries not involved rises more (8-10%) when firms endogenously vary their markets in response to the new conditions of competition in local markets induced by the bilateral trade war.
    Date: 2019–09
  21. By: Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina
    Abstract: Abstract China’s export competition has decreased the total export value of Finnish firms’ products, primarily through price cuts. Firm-level analysis shows that the export competition with China leads to substantial price cuts to retain market shares, especially for homogeneous products. Price cuts to maintain market shares as competition intensifies do not seem to be as relevant for differentiated (heterogeneous) products. On the other hand, firms respond to the increased level of Chinese export competition by dropping their marginal product exports. The study highlights the importance of export competition with China for developed countries, as China’s production climbs higher on the value chain ladder. It is important that policy measures will focus on supporting the growth of production and export of specified products. The continuing support of R&D investments in both companies and in public sector is one of the most important policy actions that will generate new competitive high-skill export products.
    Keywords: Trade flows, Export competition, Firm-level, Product mix, China
    JEL: F14 F15 F61 L25
    Date: 2020–01–09
  22. By: Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Uddin, Gazi Salah; Taufique, Khan Md. Raziuddin
    Abstract: Bangladesh suffers from a chronic deficit in her trade balance. The paper is an attempt to explore the imports of Bangladesh which is one of the most significant factors responsible for unfavorable trade balance of the country. The aim of the study is to intend some initiatives for an attempt to ultimately reshaping the trade balance of Bangladesh with her foreign trade partners. The paper examines the existence of the gravity theory for the imports of Bangladesh with its eight major trading partner countries- India, China, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, USA and Malaysia. The data set consists of yearly data from 1985 to 2003 in a panel approach. The paper comes across with the findings that the gravity theory is consistent with the imports of Bangladesh. That is, the geographical distance of Bangladesh with its partner countries has significant impacts on its imports. But in near future this may change because of different factors such as profitability, easy trade procedures, product delivery time etc. that influence the imports decision more than does the geographical distance. This paper finds mixed relationship between the GDP and imports of Bangladesh. It also shows that the imports of Bangladesh influence the domestic production very little because Bangladesh mostly imports consumer goods rather than capital goods. Moreover, the population of Bangladesh has significant impacts on imports which in turn implies that Bangladesh is not capable of producing adequate consumer goods to meet the increased demand resulted from high population growth. It also shows that partner countries‟ GDP has significant positive impacts and partner countries‟ population has mixed impact on imports of Bangladesh. This paper concludes that it will be an alarming situation for trade balance of Bangladesh if the imports continue to increase in such a pattern that the rate increases five to eight times more in respect of population increases and at the same time the ratio of capital goods in proportion of total imports decreases.
    Date: 2019–02–20
  23. By: Tamas Gerocs (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Andras Pinkasz (Hungarian Central Statistical Office)
    Abstract: For several decades, the German automotive industry has been under mounting pressure to reorganize its production processes and its modes of value-chain governance. In this paper, we analyze the effects this restructuring has had on the economic development of the Central and Eastern European countries that have specialized in automotive production during the capitalist transition. We focus on two global market forces: the standardization of the production of electric engines and the changing patterns of international trade regulation, mostly under the German neo-mercantilist trade regime. Our hypothesis is that structures of dependent development are reproduced by the forms of vertical specialization that have emerged in the automotive industry in these countries. To prove this, we combine the theory of global value chains with Vernon’s product life-cycle theory.
    Keywords: core-periphery, dependent development, global automotive value chains, product life cycle, relocation, vertical specialization
    JEL: B5 F6 F4 L6 P1 N1
    Date: 2019–05
  24. By: Thomas, Chantal; Library, Cornell
    Abstract: The world is on the point of a stunning reversal. Nationalism and isolationism have surged against the global laws and institutions that have advanced economic liberalization and integration for half a century. Hostility is rising against international trade and international migration, both of which the new cadre of self-styled “anti-globalists” see as interrelated and threatening to national security and economic stability.
    Date: 2019–04–15
  25. By: Thomas, Chantal; Library, Cornell
    Abstract: At a time when global poverty is at its lowest, how can it be that income inequality is higher than it has been since the end of the Second World War? How have global trade and international law shaped these trends? Can we connect economic inequality at the domestic and international levels?
    Date: 2019–03–08
  26. By: Breznau, Nate (University of Bremen); Rinke, Eike Mark (University of Leeds); Wuttke, Alexander (University of Mannheim); Adem, Muna; Adriaans, Jule; Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia (Max Planck Institute for Research on collective goods); Andersen, Henrik Kenneth; Auer, Daniel; Azevedo, Flavio (Cologne University); Bahnsen, Oke
    Abstract: In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area. This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.
    Date: 2019–01–26
  27. By: Becher, Georg
    Abstract: The objective of the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR), enforced since March 2013, is for importers and exporters to commit to reducing the risk of trading timber products from illegal sources in the EU. EUROSTAT time series on monthly trade with wood products from January 1988 to August 2016 were used to monitor the law's impact. The time series, subdivided into sections before and after the implementation of EUTR, were investigated in time and frequency domains. The analyses in the time domain indicated the adequateness of the AR (1) and ARMA (1, 1) models. As the confidence intervals for their estimates before and after EUTR do not overlap, the respective time series are considered as different and the influence of EUTR legislation probable (also confirmed by the significant models with EUTR as intervening event). Long term variation of the monthly time series (March 2013 to August 2016) show an increasing linear trend for all wood products and for wood products with tropical woods excluded. Since EU imports of tropical wood were falling before EUTR, the stagnant imports thereafter are judged as uncertainty and time the markets need to adapt to a new legislative situation. The analyses in frequency domain based on inference from periodogram revealed cycles of 3, 4, 6 and 12 months, except for time series of tropical wood imports after EUTR. If cycles are thought of as inherent to import time series, this lack in tropical wood imports can be an indication of a 'wait-and-see' attitude of importers as a consequence of EUTR.
    Keywords: illegale Holznutzung,Zeitreihenanalyse,Interventionsmodell,illegal logging,time series analysis,periodogram,intervention model
    Date: 2019
  28. By: Mbiankeu Nguea, Stéphane
    Abstract: This study provides an empirical assessment of the relationship between economic globalization and economic growth. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. Based on CEMAC countries for the period from 1970 to 2015, analyses were performed using panel data regressions. In line with previous economic research, the findings indicate that the impact of economic globalization on economic growth in CEMAC is positive and significant. The results also show that the impact of economic globalization in CEMAC countries does not depend on the level of democracy and financial development.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Economic Globalization, CEMAC
    JEL: F62
    Date: 2019–11–20
  29. By: Hadi, Wibisono Rachman
    Abstract: Paper ini bertjuan untuk memahami Global Value Chain (GVC) memiliki kemampuan dan kemamuan untuk bagi setiap negaranya maupun berkembang dan maju dalam memberikan nilai tambah yang dapat dimanfaatkan secara adil, dan melihat bagaimana pengaruh dari GVC ini terhadap industri rotan, kemudian ada pula International Alliance Strategy dimana ada 5 alternatif partenrship yang dilakukan perusahaan lokal dengan multinasional, pada alternatif ini lebih di fokuskan untuk bagian international trade with the licence agreement, tujuannya jelas bagaimana setiap perusahaan yang bekerja sama memiliki linsensi dagang yang jelas dalam melakukan transaksi internasional karena pastinya ada beberapa syarat serta ketentuan yang berbeda beda disetiap negaranya.
    Date: 2019–12–07
  30. By: Tsourapas, Gerasimos (University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: Under what conditions do authoritarian states exercise control over populations abroad? The securitisation of cross-border mobility has been a common theme in examining immigration policies in the Global North. The securitisation of emigration and diasporas in non-democratic contexts remains neglected; this is particularly true with regard to Arab states’ extraterritorial authoritarian practices. This article argues that authoritarian states develop a range of migration policies that are driven by the contradictory pressures of economic and political imperatives or, put differently, an "illiberal paradox": if a state does not expect economic gains from cross-border mobility, it is more likely to securitise its emigration policy; otherwise, it is more likely to securitise its diaspora policy. The article illustrates this trade-off via a most-similar comparison of Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco. Drawing on Arabic and non-Arabic primary and secondary sources, it sketches a novel area of research on migration and security.
    Date: 2019–03–26
  31. By: María-Isabel Ayuda; Vicente Pinilla
    Abstract: The objective of this article is to study the evolution of Spanish agricultural exports, their share of agricultural production as a whole, the determinants of their expansion and, finally, the contribution that they have made to economic development. Our results show considerable dynamism in agricultural exports, which however faced certain obstacles that limited any further expansion. Their share on production varied greatly, but for some relevant products it was fundamental, substantially contributing to its growth. The increase in external demand but also the comparatively high profitability of export products and a high level of competitiveness in the international market generated highly dynamic behaviour in supply. The contribution of the export sector to Spanish economic growth was positive although moderate. It contributed to financing necessary imports during the industrialisation process, favoured a more efficient allocation of resources and produced intersectoral linkages. However, the geographical concentration of production for export limited its spatial impact on the Spanish economy.
    Keywords: agricultural development, agricultural trade, Spanish economic history, first wave of globalisation
    JEL: N53 N73 O13 Q17
    Date: 2020–01
    Abstract: Characterised by low-quality transport infrastructures and located quite far from the country economic centre, the Amazonian region in Brazil was almost wholly disconnected from the rest of the country for several decades. In conjunction with other factors, this motivated the creation of a Free Trade Zone in the region by Brazilian authorities to foster economic linkages with the country’s other states. We examine in this article whether this challenging goal of connecting an isolated region marked by lowquality transport infrastructures to a distant economic centre has been accomplished and if the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has played a role in the process. Using a gravity model to assess each Brazilian state trade performance and level of trade costs, we found that the two entities representing the state of Amazonas (Manaus where the Free Trade Zone is implanted and the rest of Amazonas) were among the most effective intra-national exporters in Brazil in 2008 despite facing the highest level of trade costs in the country. These apparently counter-intuitive findings indicate a potentially significant role of the FTZ in this process of integration.
    Keywords: stochastic frontier analysis, regional integration, trade costs, Import processing zones
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2019–12–17
  33. By: Library, Cornell; Trubek, David M.; Santos, Alvaro; Thomas, Chantal
    Abstract: Anthem Press, 2019, Forthcoming World trade and investment law is in crisis: new and progressive ideas are needed. Rules that facilitated globalization and supported global economic growth are being challenged. A system of global governance that once seemed secure is now at risk as the US ignores the rules while developing countries struggle to escape restrictions. Some want to tear global institutions and agreements down while others try desperately to maintain the status quo. Rejecting both options, we convened a group of trade and investment law experts from 10 countries South and North who have proposed ideas for a new world trade and investment law that would maintain global growth while distributing costs and benefits more fairly. This essay frames the issues and introduces the volume. We look at the impact of trade and investment law on the global distribution of resources, and pay special attention to those who have suffered from trade dislocation and to restrictions that have hampered innovative growth strategies in developing countries. This perspective shapes a progressive trade and investment law agenda that is outlined in the book and summarized here. We suggest new ways to link trade with protection for labor; measures to ensure that gains from trade are used to offset losses; new rules that can protect foreign investments without hamstringing developing governments or harming local communities; innovative procedures to allow developing countries freedom to try innovative growth strategies; and methods to cope with new products like cannabis.
    Date: 2019–05–31
  34. By: Tamas Peragovics (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: European governments have shown growing interest in investment screening mechanisms in order to restrain access of non-EU investors to strategically sensitive industries. Most of this interest comes as recent high-profile takeovers by Chinese companies are increasingly perceived as detrimental for national security. While the practice of screening investments is not new, the strengthening of regulatory oversight in major European countries like the UK and Germany indicates a more challenging investment landscape for non-EU investors like Chinese companies. The EU also adopted a new framework to screen foreign investments, but it relies primarily on member state input and cannot veto actual acquisition plans on behalf of the community. While Slovakia has no dedicated investment screening mechanism, Czechia is in the legislative process of establishing one. Poland and Hungary, with generally similar screening processes, differ in their respective relations with China, spelling doubt over potential foreign and investment policy cooperation in the V4. This working paper provides an analysis of recent developments in investment screening regulations in Europe, with a special focus on the V4 countries.
    Keywords: FDI, investment screening, national security, V4
    JEL: F21 P33 P45 E61 O52
    Date: 2019–05
  35. By: L Maaya; M Meulders; N Surmont; Martina Vandebroek
    Abstract: Sustainability labels on food products provide information to consumers that the product has been produced in an ethical way. We explore the knowledge and purchasing behaviour of the organic label and fair trade label. Secondly, we investigate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for food products bearing organic and fair trade labels. Thirdly, we evaluate the correlation in WTP for organic and fair trade. Lastly, we examine the effect of environmental and altruistic attitudes on WTP for both sustainability labels. We draw our conclusions by analyzing a stated choice experiment on consumers coffee buying behaviour in Flanders, Belgium. Our results suggest that knowledge for the fair trade label is higher than that of the organic label. The importance of the organic and fair trade labels on coffee purchase decisions and their WTP estimates were similar. We found a high correlation in WTP for both labels. Our results indicate significant effects of environmental and altruistic attitudes in WTP for both organic and fair trade labels.
    Keywords: Coffee, Organic, Fair trade, Willingness-to-pay, Attitudes
    Date: 2018–10

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