nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2019‒08‒19
24 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Trade and Growth in the Age of Global Value Chains By Carlo Altomonte; Laura Bonacorsi; Italo Colantobe
  2. The Political Economy of a Northern Ireland Border Poll By McGuinness, Seamus; Bergin, Adele
  3. Revisiting the Natural Resource ‘Curse’ in the Context of Trade in Value Added: Enclave or High-development Backward Linkages? By Filippo Bontadini; Maria Savona
  4. Integration in Global Value Chains and Employment in Europe By Filippo Bontadini; Rinaldo Evangelista; Valentina Meliciani; Maria Savona
  5. Increasing Resistance to Globalization: The Role of Trade in Tasks By Hartmut Egger; Christian Fischer
  6. Costs of Utilizing Regional Trade Agreements By HAYAKAWA Kazunobu; JINJI Naoto; MATSUURA Toshiyuki; YOSHIMI Taiyo
  7. Economic preferences and trade outcomes By Korff, Alex; Steffen, Nico
  8. Voting with Their Money: Brexit and Outward Investment by UK Firms By Holger Breinlich; Elsa Leromain; Dennis Novy; Thomas Sampson
  9. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Japanese Multinational Corporations By SUN Chang; TAO Zhigang; YUAN Hongjie; ZHANG Hongyong
  10. Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile By Dong Cheng; Mario J Crucini; Hyunseung Oh; Hakan Yilmazkuday
  11. Trade War: Global land use implications of Chinese tariffs on US agricultural products By Taheripour, Farzad; Richards, Peter; Tyner, Wallace E.
  12. Trade Exposure and the Decline in Collective Bargaining: Evidence from Germany By Daniel Baumgarten; Sybille Lehwald
  13. The impact of border changes and protectionism on real wages in early modern Scania By Kathryn E. Gary; Cristina Victoria Radu
  14. Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization By Jorge Alvarez; Ivo Krznar; Trevor Tombe
  15. Integración regional por inversión extranjera directa del MERCOSUR y del TLCAN y el papel de sus socios menores, 1990-2016 By Nicolás Reig
  16. What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the US and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models By Xavier Jaravel; Erick Sager
  17. China shock: environmental impacts in Brazil By Victor Simões Dornelas; Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli
  18. Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration By Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
  19. The Quantitative Growth in North Korea's Trade: Is it Enough? By Kim, Kyoochul
  20. Learning from Siblings within Multinational Firms By CHEN Cheng; SUN Chang; ZHANG Hongyong
  21. Why Do Countries Engage in the Preferential Trade Agreement Network? By Marcel Vaillant; Flavia Rovira
  22. How resilient is ASEAN-5 to trade shocks? Regional and global shocks compared By Mala Raghavan; Evelyn S. Devadason
  23. Immigration and Work-Related Injuries: Evidence from Italian Administrative Data By Alacevich, Caterina; Nicodemo, Catia
  24. International transmission with heterogeneous sectors By Jin, Keyu; Li, Nan

  1. By: Carlo Altomonte; Laura Bonacorsi; Italo Colantobe
    Abstract: We revisit the relationship between trade and growth taking into account the recent expansion of global value chains (GVCs). We develop a new instrument for trade based on gravity estimations. Our instrument exploits a recent transportation shock: the sharp increase in the maximum size of container ships, which has more than tripled between 1995 and 2007. This shock has an asymmetric impact on different bilateral trade flows, based on the ex-ante presence of deep-water ports across countries, since these are the only ports that can accommodate the new larger ships. Our empirical set-up allows us to obtain instrumental variables not only for gross trade flows, but also for the different value added components of exports, for which we run separate gravity estimations based on WIOD data. We find that trade has a positive effect on GDP per capita, both in levels and in growth terms. Evidence at the country and industry level suggests that the effect works through both productivity improvements and capital deepening. We show that the effect of exports on income is crucially moderated by differences in their value added composition. In particular, we find evidence of stronger export effects on growth for countries that upgrade their positioning or improve their participation to GVCs more than others over time.
    Date: 2018
  2. By: McGuinness, Seamus (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Bergin, Adele (ESRI, Dublin)
    Abstract: Given the increased prominence of a border poll in Ireland, particularly following the outcome of the Brexit referendum, this paper provides an initial assessment of some of the issues that are likely to become central in any debate on this issue. We examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time. We further compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of FDI. The paper goes on to analyse other relevant issues, such as the relative strength and weaknesses of the healthcare systems and the factors determining the potential economic cost of Irish unification. The objective of the research is to initiate an evidence-based approach to the question of a border poll and to provide an initial indication of the breadth of detail and analysis required for any debate to proceed in a meaningful manner.
    Keywords: border poll, Brexit, Northern Ireland
    JEL: P52 J01 J10 R10
    Date: 2019–07
  3. By: Filippo Bontadini (OFCE-SciencesPo, Nice/SPRU, University of Sussex, UK); Maria Savona (SPRU, University of Sussex, UK)
    Abstract: This paper puts forward and empirically tests the conjecture that specialisation in Natural Resource Industries (NRI) might not necessarily be a ‘curse’ for (developing) countries, if it provides opportunities for export diversification in backward linked sectors à la Hirschman. We first revisit the evolution of the debate around the NRI ‘curse’, including those from scholars sceptical of diversification based on beneficiation from NRI. We then empirically test whether NRI might represent a sufficient “domestic representative demand” à la Linder for backward linked sectors such as Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS) or high tech manufacturing that might provide new opportunities for export diversification led by virtuous pathways of domestic structural change. We find empirical support for this conjecture and discuss some implications that revisit the NRI curse debate.
    Keywords: Natural Resource Curse, Backward Linkages, Trade, Value Added, Input-Output
    JEL: F14 N50
    Date: 2019–08
  4. By: Filippo Bontadini (SPRU, University of Sussex, UK/OFCE, Nice); Rinaldo Evangelista (University of Camerino); Valentina Meliciani (University Luiss Guido Carli, Department of Management); Maria Savona (SPRU, University of Sussex, UK)
    Abstract: This chapter aims at revisiting the empirical evidence on the recent trends of countries’ integration in global value chains in Europe. It investigates two potential sources of unbalances that these processes might relate to: (i) the sectoral specialization of the patterns of international fragmentation, whether high technology manufacturing or knowledge intensive services (KIBS); (ii) the occupational categories that have benefited or been penalized by these trends. A rich empirical mapping of these trends in the European countries is provided, based on OECD ICIO and EU ISCO data. The results on the overall and sectoral-specific trends of integration in GVCs and the associated changes in the shares of managers and manual workers show a dual-speed and qualitatively different integration patterns in Europe, with Eastern European (EE) countries rapidly integrating in high tech manufacturing, and the core of western countries strengthening their mutual integration in the KIBS area. Despite the relatively “good quality” integration of EE countries, the evidence does not seem to reveal a mirroring upgrading of employment structures. While this empirical contribution does not attempt to identify causal relationships, the picture provided in the chapter shows that, overall, integration in GVC seems to reproduce and perhaps exacerbate the initial asymmetries in the sectoral and employment structure, with manual workers occupation reducing overall and knowledge intensive occupations concentrating in western Europe.
    Keywords: Global value chains, offshoring, KIBS, High-tech manufacturing, employment, skills
    JEL: J24
    Date: 2019–08
  5. By: Hartmut Egger; Christian Fischer
    Abstract: Based on empirical evidence from cross-country survey data, we argue that the surge of trade in tasks over the last decades can explain increasing resistance to globalization in industrialized countries. In a traditional trade model of a small open economy, we demonstrate that public education provides protection against losses from trade in goods and services if trade increases the relative price of skill-intensive goods. Furthermore, increasing public schooling expenditure may help securing support for trade reform by a majority of voters. However, if education provides task-specific skills and trade in tasks makes some of these skills obsolete in the open economy, raising public schooling expenditure is of limited help to secure support for trade reform by a majority of voters, even if the reform is welfare-improving. Therefore, our analysis indicates that, in contrast to past episodes of globalization, public education does not shield workers from losses from trade in tasks and that drastic changes of the education system are needed in order to counter the increase of protectionist sentiments. To preserve majority support for trade reform, policy makers should adjust public education to provide broader, less-specialized skills. Although broader skills are less productive in a closed economy, acquiring them pays off as they increase the likelihood that a proposal for welfare-improving trade reform can be successful in a referendum.
    Keywords: resistance to globalization, trade in tasks, public education, majority voting
    JEL: F11 F50 D72 I28
    Date: 2019
  6. By: HAYAKAWA Kazunobu; JINJI Naoto; MATSUURA Toshiyuki; YOSHIMI Taiyo
    Abstract: This paper proposes a method of quantifying the additional fixed cost to exporters of taking advantage of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Such additional fixed costs can be measured by the ratio of fixed costs resulting from preference utilization to those associated with non-preferential export activities, or "fixed cost ratio (FCR)." Our method is built on a model of international trade where heterogeneous exporters decide what tariff schemes to use. By applying our method to Japan's imports from RTA partner countries, we obtain the median estimate for FCR of 0.04-0.08, implying that RTA utilization imposes fixed cost increases of 4-8%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the reduction of the FCR by half raises the RTA utilization rate by 22 percentage points. We also compute the change in procurement costs resulting from compliance with RTA rules of origin. Our estimate of the change is two percent of per-unit production cost. Then, we simulate the complete elimination of these additional procurement costs, which had the impact of a 20 percentage point rise in RTA utilization rate.
    Date: 2019–07
  7. By: Korff, Alex; Steffen, Nico
    Abstract: Utilizing the new Global Preference Survey (GPS) by Falk et al. (2018) and its data of unique scope on national preference structures in patience, risk attitude, reciprocity, trust and altruism, we are the first to explore a potential in uence on international trade outcomes of this broad set of economic and social preferences in a unified setting. Adding to the evidence on preferences' importance for aggregate outcomes, we find distinct relationships between national preference leanings and marked differences in trade ows and relationships, both on the country-level and between bilateral partners. Our main results suggest that countries differing in their willingness to behave negatively reciprocal tend to trade significantly less amongst each other, while countries that are patient or risk-averse tend to shift towards exporting more differentiated goods as opposed to homogeneous goods and vice versa.
    Keywords: Trade determinants,Non-Tari Barriers,Economic preferences,Sociocultural variation
    JEL: F10 F14 D01 D91 Z10
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Holger Breinlich; Elsa Leromain; Dennis Novy; Thomas Sampson
    Abstract: We study the impact of the 2016 Brexit referendum on UK foreign direct investment. Using the synthetic control method to construct appropriate counterfactuals, we show that by March 2019 the Leave vote had led to a 17% increase in the number of UK outward investment transactions in the remaining EU27 member states, whereas transactions in non-EU OECD countries were unaffected. These results support the hypothesis that UK companies have been setting up European subsidiaries to retain access to the EU market after Brexit. At the same time, we find that the number of EU27 investment projects in the UK has declined by around 9%, illustrating that being a smaller economy than the EU leaves the UK more exposed to the costs of economic disintegration.
    Keywords: Brexit, foreign direct investment, synthetic control method
    JEL: F15 F21 F23
    Date: 2019
  9. By: SUN Chang; TAO Zhigang; YUAN Hongjie; ZHANG Hongyong
    Abstract: Using detailed data on Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs), we examine the impact of the US-China trade war on MNC activities and market values. We first use quarterly data on the foreign affiliates of these MNCs and show that, relative to affiliates in other Asian countries, Chinese affiliates, especially those with high exposure to trade with North America (NA), in general see a decline in sales since the trade war began. This decline is largely driven by a drop in sales to third countries. Second, we use data on listed Japanese firms and find that, relative to other listed firms, firms exposed to China-NA trade see a decline in stock prices after Trump proposed tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports on Mar 22, 2018. This decline is larger for firms whose Chinese affiliates rely more on inputs from Japan. We see this as evidence that the negative impact of the trade war propagates through the global value chain.
    Date: 2019–07
  10. By: Dong Cheng; Mario J Crucini; Hyunseung Oh; Hakan Yilmazkuday
    Abstract: The beginning of the twentieth century provides a unique opportunity to explore the interaction of rapid technological progress and trade barriers in shaping the worldwide diffusion of a new, highly traded good: the automobile. We scrape historical data on the quantity and value of passenger vehicles exported from the United States to other destination countries, annually from 1913 to 1940. We model the rise of US automobile from global obscurity toward a level dependent upon the extent of long-run pass-through of US prices into destination markets and destination GDP per capita. The results based on a diffusion model with CES preferences and non-unitary income elasticity shows that 62% of the gap in diffusion levels between the U.S. and the rest of the world is due to price frictions such as markups, tariffs, and trade costs, while the remaining 38% is due to income effects.
    Keywords: Product Diffusion, Automobile, International Trade, Wedge Accounting
    JEL: F10 L62 N60 N70 O33
    Date: 2019–08
  11. By: Taheripour, Farzad; Richards, Peter; Tyner, Wallace E.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2019–06–25
  12. By: Daniel Baumgarten; Sybille Lehwald
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of the increase in trade exposure induced by the rise of China and the transformation of Eastern Europe on collective bargaining coverage of German plants in the period 1996–2008. We exploit cross-industry variation in trade exposure and use trade flows of other high-income countries as instruments for German trade exposure. We find that increased import exposure has led to an increase in the probability of German plants leaving industry-wide bargaining agreements, accounting for about one fifth of the overall decline in the German manufacturing sector. The effect is most pronounced for small and medium-sized plants.
    Keywords: international trade, import competition, collective bargaining
    JEL: F16 J51
    Date: 2019
  13. By: Kathryn E. Gary (Lund University); Cristina Victoria Radu (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: In the aftermath of Brexit there has been increased speculation into what national borders mean for economic and individual wellbeing. Investigating similar events in history can help us understand some of these potential effects. Malmö, a city in modern-day southern Sweden, was a part of Denmark until the middle of the seventeenth century, located just across the Sound from the capital of Copenhagen. Malmö and its surrounding regions were ceded to Sweden at the end of the Second Northern War in 1658 and Sweden immediately established barriers to trade and to human capital flow between its new territories and Denmark, going so far as to prohibit Swedish attendance to Copenhagen University and instead establishing its own university in Lund in 1666. Malmö and its surrounding region, Scania, quickly shifted from an important trade city located within sight of the capital to a distant periphery with limited trade capacity. This change in possession of Scania provides a historical experiment that can highlight the effect of the second nature geography changes as well as protectionism on well-being. We use a novel database of Danish and Swedish real wages to investigate the impact of these changes on Scanian living standards by employing a difference in difference approach to show that wages fell more in Scania than those in surrounding regions in relation to the border change and associated protectionism.
    Keywords: Border Changes, Real Wages, Second Nature Geography, Welfare Ratios, Standard of Living, Denmark, Sweden, Malmo, Scania, Scandinavia, Early Modern Period
    JEL: J31 N33 N93
    Date: 2019–08
  14. By: Jorge Alvarez; Ivo Krznar; Trevor Tombe
    Abstract: This paper assesses the costs of internal trade barriers and proposes policies to improve internal trade. Estimates suggest that complete liberalization of internal trade in goods can increase GDP per capita by about 4 percent and reallocate employment towards provinces that experience large productivity gains from trade. The positive impact highlights the need for federal, provincial and territorial governments to work together to reduce internal trade barriers. There is significant scope to build on the new Canadian Free Trade Agreement to more explicitly identify key trade restrictions, resolve differences, and agree on cooperative solutions.
    Date: 2019–07–22
  15. By: Nicolás Reig (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: El objetivo de este documento es analizar y comparar los procesos de integración por inversión extranjera directa (IED) del MERCOSUR y del TLCAN y el rol de Uruguay y México en el periodo 1990-2016. El análisis empírico se realiza mediante una nueva propuesta metodológica, elaborada en base a la metodología de análisis estructural y los índices sistémicos de integración comercial definidos por Prakas, Dietzenbacher y Basu (2007). La evidencia y los resultados sugieren que los bloques y los socios menores tuvieron diferentes trayectorias en sus procesos de integración. El MERCOSUR tuvo bajos niveles de integración aunque se incrementaron a lo largo del periodo, mientras que en el TLCAN la integración fue elevada, especialmente en algunos subperíodos. En este contexto, la integración de los socios menores tuvo grandes diferencias, siendo mucho más intensa en el caso de México que en el de Uruguay.
    Keywords: Integración regional, Inversión extranjera directa, MERCOSUR, TLCAN, Uruguay, México
    JEL: F15 F21 F23
    Date: 2018–11
  16. By: Xavier Jaravel; Erick Sager
    Abstract: This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in import penetration from China causes a 1.91% decline in consumer prices. This price response is driven by declining markups for domestically-produced goods, and is one order of magnitude larger than in standard trade models that abstract from strategic price-setting. The estimates imply that trade with China increased U.S. consumer surplus by about $400,000 per displaced job, and that product categories catering to low-income consumers experienced larger price declines.
    JEL: F10 F13 F14
    Date: 2019–08
  17. By: Victor Simões Dornelas; Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli
    Abstract: We study whether the “China shock†, defined as China’s rapid emergence in global markets, caused environmental impacts in Brazilian municipalities, since previous evidence points to effects on real wages and formal sector employment over the period of 2000 to 2010. Building on recent theoretical developments, we implement a shift-share strategy to explore variation in economic specialization between municipalities and find that China’s direct influence on deforestation of the Amazon and Cerrado was on average insignificant, which is supported by the literature. On the other hand, China’s demand for commodities seems to have increased pollution-related mortality of children in mining municipalities, a result obtained by comparing it to mortality caused by other factors. However, we show that this is most likely explained by a municipality’s degree of specialization in mining activities rather than its exposure to trade with China. We conclude that the environmental impacts of the China shock on Brazilian municipalities were small, if not negligible.
    Keywords: international trade; deforestation; infant mortality; Brazil; China
    JEL: F18 Q52 Q56
    Date: 2019–08–06
  18. By: Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
    Abstract: We show that the creation of the first integrated pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that interregional trade was strongly influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is largely explained by selective infrastructure routing and cultural integration due to bilateral convergence in preferences and values. Both plausibly arise from network-induced history of repeated socio-economic interaction. We show that our results are Roman-connectivity specific and do not reflect pre-existing patterns of exchange.
    Keywords: business links; cultural similarity; economic integration; Roman trade; transport network connectivity
    JEL: F15 F21 N73 O18 R12 R40
    Date: 2019–07
  19. By: Kim, Kyoochul
    Abstract: Despite international sanctions, North Korea's trade has exhibited quantitative growth. However, the sanctions have also limited North Korea's trade partners to China. The surging demand for anthracite in China has skewed North Korea's trade structure, leaving it vulnerable to external shocks and possibly distorting the allocation of resources and diminishing the capital investment in other industries. In response, the South Korean government must make efforts to seek new measures for economic cooperation to encourage North Korea to foster other industries that have comparative advantage. In addition, assistance must be made available to enable North Korea to establish a balanced trade structure by diversifying its trade partners and trade portfolio. - North Korea's trade has grown in quantity since the 2000s. - North Korea's economic growth was unable to catch up with the growth in trade due to the qualitative decline. - North Korea's trade has been heavily dependent on China from the mid-2000s. - From 2008, North Korea's top export item has been anthracite and its export volume has expanded sharply. - The spike in North Korea's anthracite exports from the late 2000s was driven by demand factors including an increase in the demand for fossil fuels on China's economic development and also supply factors including the difficulties in earning foreign currency. - National income and economic growth are determined by qualitative aspects such as what items are being exported. - The trends in North Korea's physical and human capital investment helps to evaluate the quality of its export and to project the sustainability of its long-term economic growth. - An anthracite-dependent export structure would reduce the investment in physical and human capital, possibly leading to longterm economic stagnation. - Vietnam's exports have grown in both quantity and quality, since consistently expanding its export of hightech products, contrary to North Korea whose trade quality has weakened. - North Korea's China- and anthracite-dependent trade structure is vulnerable to external shocks as well as reducing human and physical capital investment, diminishing long-term growth. - The South Korean government needs to act as a bridge between North Korea and the world, helping North Korea discard the existing trade structure and transform itself into a normal member of the global economy.
    Date: 2018
  20. By: CHEN Cheng; SUN Chang; ZHANG Hongyong
    Abstract: Using a unique dataset of Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs), we provide evidence that MNCs learn about potential profitability in the destination market by observing the performance of their affiliates (henceforth "siblings") in other nearby markets. Specifically, good historical performance of siblings in nearby markets raises the probability of foreign direct investment (FDI) entries into the destination market. For a market where the MNC has established an affiliate, good sales performance of nearby siblings raises the sales expectations of affiliates established in that market. To explain these facts, we provide a simple model of a multinational firm learning about its profitability in multiple markets. The model further predicts that nearby siblings' historical performance has a larger impact on the established affiliate's expectations when the affiliate is less experienced and/or its own signals are noisier. We confirm both predictions in our data.
    Date: 2019–07
  21. By: Marcel Vaillant (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Flavia Rovira (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas)
    Abstract: We analyze the determinants of Preferential Trade Agreements Networks dynamics. We propose a theoretical framework based in an extension of Baldwin (1995) to rationalize the determinants of PTA formation as a way to maximize preferential market access and/or diminish market discrimination. To build the empirical model we use a Stochastic Actor Oriented Models proposed by Snijders (2001). We suppose that three main set of variables will affect the countries motivation to change their PTA neighborhood at each moment. The first is related to natural trade cost and market size. The second group is related to political economy effects. And finally, we include a variable related to trade specialization, which has not been used in earlier works to explain PTAs. Following Snijders et al. (2012) we also control for hierarchy structures of the PTA, and we extend their work by analyzing the change in this phenomenon when considering a broader period of time. Results show that the signs of usual variables behave as expected in the literature for the first period but hierarchy effect dilutes after 2004. As a contribution to existing literature we found that trade rivalry between countries is also significant in explaining the dynamics of PTA.
    Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreements, networks
    JEL: F02 F14
    Date: 2018–10
  22. By: Mala Raghavan; Evelyn S. Devadason
    Abstract: This paper revisits the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amidst the unfolding effects of the US-China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (US, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a structural VAR framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1 to 2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the US and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the US and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects, apart from the direct trade links.
    Keywords: trade links, SVAR model, ASEAN-5, China, US
    JEL: F41 C32
    Date: 2019–08
  23. By: Alacevich, Caterina (Pompeu Fabra University); Nicodemo, Catia (University of Oxford)
    Abstract: There is growing evidence that foreign-born workers are over represented in physically demanding and dangerous jobs with relatively higher injury hazard rates. Given this pattern, do increasing inflows of foreign-born workers alleviate native workers' exposure to injuries? This paper provides evidence of the effects of immigration on the incidence and severity of workrelated accidents. We combine administrative data on work-place accidents in Italy with the Labour Force Survey from 2009 to 2017. Our approach exploits spatial and temporal variation in the distribution of foreign-born residents across provinces. Using province fixed-effects and an instrumental variable specification based on historical settlements of immigrants, we show that inflows of foreign-born residents drive reductions in the injury rate, paid sick leave, and severity of impairment for natives. Next, we investigate potential underlying mechanisms that could drive this effect, such as increased unemployment and selection of the workforce, and the sorting of native workers into less physically demanding jobs. Our results rule out that decreased injuries are driven by higher native unemployment. We find that employment rates are positively associated with immigration, in particular for workers with higher education. While not statistically significant at conventional levels, we also find that average occupational physical intensity for natives is lower in provinces that receive larger foreign-born inflows.
    Keywords: immigration, labour-market flexibility, work-related injuries, health
    JEL: J61 J28 I1
    Date: 2019–07
  24. By: Jin, Keyu; Li, Nan
    Abstract: This paper documents new facts about the behavior of capital- and labor-intensive goods over the business cycle and also identifies a mechanism that generates international investment comovement through shifting compositional changes of production and trade across sectors. Our model’s quantitative predictions not only match aggregate and sectoral statistics but also generate empirically plausible sectoral composition effects. Finally, we show that essential segments of the transmission process receive empirical support.
    Keywords: International Business Cycles; International Comovement; Relative Prices; Factor proportions trade
    JEL: F41
    Date: 2018–10–01

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