nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2019‒05‒20
33 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports By Falvey, Rod; Foster-McGregor, Neil
  2. Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world By Bekkers, Eddy; Koopman, Robert; Lemos Rego, Carolina
  3. Brazilian exporters and the rise of Global Value Chains: an empirical assessment By Torres Mazzi, Caio
  4. Exports, Imported Inputs, and Domestic Supply Networks By Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Salih Fendoglu
  5. Domestic intellectual property rights protection and exports: Accessing the credit channel. By Ndubuisi, Gideon
  6. Trade Policy Space and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows By Gnangnon, Sena Kimm
  7. The Technical Decomposition of Carbon Emissions and the Concerns about FDI and Trade Openness Effects in the United States By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Gozgor, Giray; Kofi Adom, Philip; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  8. Impacts of agricultural price support policies on price variability and welfare: evidence from China’s soybean market By Wang, Wenting; Wei, Longbao
  9. The persisting US trade deficit Is protectionism the right answer? By Riccardo Fiorentini
  10. Job automation risk, economic structure and trade: a European perspective By Foster-McGregor, Neil; Nomaler, Önder; Verspagen, Bart
  11. Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing By Christoph E. Boehm; Aaron Flaaen; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
  12. Working Paper 11-18 - Value chain integration of export-oriented and domestic market manufacturing firms - An analysis based on a heterogeneous input-output table for Belgium By Caroline Hambye; Bart Hertveldt; Bernhard Klaus Michel
  13. Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period By David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
  14. Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography By Thu Dao; Frédéric Docquier; Mathilde Maurel; Pierre Schaus
  15. On the General Impossibility of Persistent Unequal Exchange Free Trade Equilibria in the Pre-industrial World Economy By Soh Kaneko; Naoki Yoshihara
  16. Carnet de bal des accords commerciaux régionaux By Lionel Fontagné; Gianluca Santoni
  17. Interdependence of sectors of economic activities for world countries from the reduced Google matrix analysis of WTO data By C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Jos\'e Lages; Dima L. Shepelyansky
  18. Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism By Simplice A. Asongu
  19. Working Paper 07-18 - Multiregional Population Projection Model at the EU level By Marie Vandresse
  20. The Evolution of Import Content of Production and Exports in Turkey: 2002-2017 By Yasemin Erduman; Okan Eren; Selcuk Gul
  21. Social Effects of the Vote of the Majority: A Field-Experiment on the Brexit-Vote By Fernanda L. Lopez de Leon; Markus Bindemann
  22. Migration of higher education students from North Africa Region By Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Samia
  23. Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Exports in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Test Approacj By Akinbode, Sakiru Oladele; Ojo, Olutunki Timothy
  24. Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports By Thierry Mayer; Walter Steingress
  25. Asia and the world economy in historical perspective By Findlay Ronald
  26. Selling Hollywood to China By McMahon, James
  27. Enhancing local content in Uganda’s oil and gas industry By Sen Ritwika
  28. Avoiding a “No Deal” Scenario: Free Trade Agreements, Citizenship and Economic Rights By Ojo, Marianne
  29. Shipping the good apples under strategic competition By Creane, Anthony
  30. The North-South Divide, the Euro and the World By Konstantinos Chisiridis; Kostas Mouratidis; Theodore Panagiotidis
  31. Climate change, rice production, and migration in Vietnamese households By Ricciuti Roberto; Baronchelli Adelaide
  32. Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment to Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria By Edewor, S. E.; Dipeolu, A.O.; Ashaolu O. F.; Akinbode, S.O.; Ogbe, A. O.; Edewor, A.O.; Tolorunju, E. T.; Oladeji S.O.
  33. Optimal local content for extractive industries: How can policies best create benefits for Tanzania? By Ellis Mia; McMillan Margaret

  1. By: Falvey, Rod (; Foster-McGregor, Neil (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: We use recently available data on the core economic provisions of PTAs to identify which (types of) provisions seem to promote bilateral exports and the intensive and extensive margins of exports. Our evidence suggests that measures applied at the border tend to be aimed at expanding existing trade, while measures applied behind the border are aimed at creating trade in new products. Preferential measures tended to increase bilateral total exports and bilateral exports at the intensive margin, but have no significant effect on bilateral exports at the extensive margin. Measures applied on an MFN basis are unlikely to provide improved market access for PTA partners. When includeds individually we find that no provision has a statistically significant effect of the same sign on both trade margins, confirming the view that existing and potential exporters have opposing interests in PTA formation. Finally, we provide estimated effects for selected PTAs.
    Keywords: PTA Breadth, Trade Margins, Gravity Equation
    JEL: F10 F15
    Date: 2019–04–15
  2. By: Bekkers, Eddy; Koopman, Robert; Lemos Rego, Carolina
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of structural change in China, in particular a reduction in the savings rate, an increase in the share of skilled workers, and an increase in productivity in technologically advanced manufacturing sectors targeted by Made in China 2025. Baseline projections until 2040 are generated with the WTO Global Trade Model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. With the modelled structural changes the Chinese economy is projected to reorient its focus increasingly onto the domestic economy, raising the share of private household and government consumption in GDP, turning China's trade surplus into a trade deficit, reducing China's share in global exports, raising the share of services in both production and exports, shifting the destination markets of Chinese exports from developed to developing countries, and changing its pattern of comparative advantage away from sectors like light and heavy manufacturing to electronic and machinery equipment. The large bilateral trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States is projected to fall to almost zero.
    Keywords: China; Dynamic CGE-Modelling; structural change
    JEL: F14 F43 I25
    Date: 2019–05
  3. By: Torres Mazzi, Caio (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: This paper studies how production fragmentation has affected the performance of Brazilian exporters in the manufacturing sector. We begin by combining existing classifications of internationally traded products to identify four different categories of goods, of which one ('customised intermediates') we associate more closely with fragmented trade. We then proceed to compare the productivity premium of international traders for these different categories. Our results confirm exporting customised intermediates is associated with a superior performance in comparison to other intermediates; but also highlights a strong influence of sector specificities. We also investigate the existence of learning-by-exporting effects and find no evidence for firms that produce customised intermediates exclusively. However, exports of customised products in general - i.e. both final and intermediate goods - are associated with learning. This result suggests trade in customised intermediates might be associated with learning when firms manage to upgrade their products to other customised goods.
    Keywords: exports, productivity, fragmentation, Global Value Chains
    JEL: F14 F12 O33 O31
    Date: 2019–04–23
  4. By: Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Salih Fendoglu
    Abstract: Exporters have large domestic supply networks. We examine the impact of import reliance within their domestic supply networks on exchange rate pass-through to export prices and volume. For identification, we use administrative firm-to-firm sales and firm-product-destination level customs databases from a large emerging market, Turkey. We find that (i) while exporters' degree of reliance on imported goods is 24\%, this number reaches nearly 45\% once their suppliers are taken into account; (ii) following a domestic currency depreciation, exporters that use imported inputs more or those working with import-intensive suppliers raise their producer-currency export prices significantly more and increase their export volumes significantly less; (iii) exporters with higher reliance on a single supplier have higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices; and (iv) exporters with higher overall import intensity experience greater disruption in their supply networks, e.g., they establish fewer new supplier linkages and terminate more of their existing linkages, following a domestic currency depreciation.
    Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, Exports, Import reliance, Domestic supply networks
    JEL: D24 F14 F31
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Ndubuisi, Gideon (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Recent studies on the export effects of domestic intellectual property rights protection focus on the innovation, border and technology transfer channels to underscore the pathways by which effective domestic IPRs protection influences own country's export. I extend this literature by arguing that another pathway domestic IPRs protection affects own country's export is via the credit channel i.e. firms access to external finance. Among many others, this occurs because effective domestic IPRs protection creates a scenario wherein exporters can use their intellectual properties in the same way they use tangible assets as collateral in order to overcome the huge variable and upfront fixed costs they face. To underscore this pathway, I evaluate the export effect of domestic IPRs protection within the comparative model framework and find empirical evidence for my hypothesis, with the results indicating that countries with more effective IPRs protection export more from sectors that depend more on external finance and that have more intangible assets.
    Keywords: Intellectual Property Rights, Exports, Access to Finance
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F36 O33 O34
    Date: 2019–05–06
  6. By: Gnangnon, Sena Kimm
    Abstract: This article introduces a quantitative measure of trade policy space at the national level, and investigates empirically whether it influences foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to countries. The empirical analysis covers an unbalanced panel dataset of 158 countries (both developed and developing countries), over the period 1995-2015, and uses the two-step system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) approach. Results suggest that the impact of trade policy space on FDI inflows is positive and increases as countries enjoy greater trade policy space. Furthermore, advanced economies tend to experience a higher positive impact of trade policy space on FDI inflows than less advanced economies. Overall, trade policy space matters significantly for countries' FDI inflows.
    Keywords: Trade policy space,FDI inflows
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Gozgor, Giray; Kofi Adom, Philip; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: This paper decomposes the environmental Kuznets curve into the scale, technique and composition effects while incorporating the roles of energy consumption, trade openness and foreign direct investments (FDI) effects in a carbon emissions function for the United States (U.S.). We have incorporated information about unknown structural breaks into this function while investigating the cointegration between the related variables. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration between the variables in the presence of structural breaks. Moreover, the scale effect increases carbon dioxide emissions, but the technique effect reduces it as expected. Energy consumption also adds to carbon emissions, while the composition effect improves environmental quality by lowering carbon dioxide emissions. Further, trade openness decreases carbon dioxide emissions. However, increases in FDI hamper environmental quality by increasing carbon emissions. To reduce the level of carbon emissions, the technical processes of production should be improved by investing in technological innovations and capital stock and upgrading environmental regulations to channel in environment-friendly FDIs. There should also be a transformation of the energy consumption structure towards cleaner energy sources.
    Keywords: carbon emissions; scale effect; composition effect; technique effect; international trade; foreign direct investment
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2019–05–01
  8. By: Wang, Wenting; Wei, Longbao
    Abstract: As the world’s largest importer of agricultural commodities, China’s agricultural policies have significant implications for the world agricultural market. For the first time, we develop an aggregate structural econometric model of China’s soybean market with linkage to the rest of the world to analyze the worldwide impacts of China’s soybean price support policies from 2008 to 2016. We investigate the impacts of China’s policies on the variability of their domestic and world prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the distributional and aggregate welfare effects. Results indicate that (a) China’s soybean price support policies play an effective role in stabilizing their domestic price, while its increasing imports absorb world production surplus and reduce world price swings; (b) China’s producers gain at the expense of consumers and budgetary costs, and the net welfare change in their domestic market is negative; (c) Soybean exporting countries experience considerable welfare gains, and the world net welfare change is positive. Our findings provide new insights for future trade negotiations and agricultural market reforms in developing countries.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2019–07
  9. By: Riccardo Fiorentini (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
    Abstract: On January 22, 2018, the Trump administration imposed Safeguard Tariffs on $8.5 billion of imports of solar panel and $1.8 billion for washing machines. This move marked the beginning of what is now considered a trade war the USA is fighting against China and other traditional American trade partners such as EU and NAFTA members states. The “official” motivation for Trump’s trade war is that the persisting US trade deficit depends on “unfair competition” by trade partners. Tariffs are therefore seen as a political tool for levelling the field of international trade. In this paper we present and discuss two main objections to this view: the first is that current and trade account disequilibria are ultimately due to differences between domestic savings and investments driven by macroeconomic fundamentals which in general do not depend only on the trade policies of foreign countries. The second objection consists in the fact that the role of the US dollar as the “world’s money” in the current asymmetric international monetary system makes the US trade deficit both inevitable and sustainable in the long run. Unless protectionist measures permanently affect the domestic savings-investment balance they alone cannot eliminate a structural trade deficit.
    Keywords: Trade, tariffs, trade war, Trump, China
    JEL: F13 F33 F41
    Date: 2019–05
  10. By: Foster-McGregor, Neil (UNU-MERIT); Nomaler, Önder (UNU-MERIT); Verspagen, Bart (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Recent studies report that technological developments in machine learning and artificial intelligence present a significant risk to jobs in advanced countries. We re-estimate automation risk at the job level, finding sectoral employment structure to be key in determining automation risk at the country level. At the country level, we find a negative relationship between automation risk and labour productivity. We then analyse the role of trade as a factor leading to structural changes and consider the effect of trade on aggregate automation risk by comparing automation risk between a hypothetical autarky and the actual situation. Results indicate that trade increases automation risk in Europe, although moderately so. European countries with high labour productivity see automation risk increase due to trade, with trade between European and non-European nations driving these results. This implies that the high productivity countries do not, on the balance, offshore automation risk, but rather import it.
    Keywords: Automation risk for employment, Industry 4.0, Globalisation, Global Value Chains
    JEL: F16 O33 J24
    Date: 2019–04–08
  11. By: Christoph E. Boehm; Aaron Flaaen; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
    Abstract: We provide new facts about the role of multinationals in the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1993-2011, using a novel microdata panel with firm-level ownership and trade information. Multinational-owned establishments displayed lower employment growth than a narrow control group and accounted for 41% of the aggregate manufacturing employment decline. Further, newly multinational establishments in the U.S. experienced job losses, while their parent firms increased input imports from abroad. We develop a model that rationalizes this behavior and bound a key elasticity with our microdata. The estimates imply that a reduction in the costs of foreign sourcing leads firms to increase imports of intermediates and to reduce U.S. manufacturing employment. Our findings suggest that offshoring by multinationals was a key driver of the observed decline in manufacturing employment.
    JEL: F14 F16 F23 F4
    Date: 2019–05
  12. By: Caroline Hambye; Bart Hertveldt; Bernhard Klaus Michel
    Abstract: For a finer analysis of competitiveness and value chain integration, this working paper presents a micro-data based breakdown of manufacturing industries in the 2010 Belgian supply-and-use and input-output tables into export-oriented and domestic market firms. The former are defined as those firms that export at least 25% of their turnover. Analyses based on the resulting export-heterogeneous IOT reveal differences between the two in terms of input structures and import behaviour: export-oriented manufacturers have lower value-added in output shares, and they import proportionally more of the intermediates they use. Moreover, exports of export-oriented manufacturers generate a substantial amount of value added in other Belgian firms, in particular providers of services. The policy implication of these results is that Belgium's external competitiveness depends not only on exporters but also on firms that mainly serve the domestic market. To maximise the impact of export promotion in terms of domestically generated value added, the entire value chain for the production of exports must be taken into account.
    JEL: C67 F14 F15
    Date: 2018–09–26
  13. By: David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
    Abstract: What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs.
    JEL: F1 F3 N7
    Date: 2019–05
  14. By: Thu Dao (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, Bielefeld University); Frédéric Docquier (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles], FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Pierre Schaus (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century, for two skill groups, and for all relevant pairs of countries. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct a backcasting exercise which demonstrates that our model fits the past trends in international migration very well, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. We then describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with backcasts, our world migration prospects and emigration rates from developing countries are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes: they are virtually insensitive to the technological environment. As far as OECD countries are concerned, we predict a highly robust increase in immigration pressures in general (from 12 in 2010 to 17-19% in 2050 and 25-28%in 2100), and in European immigration in particular (from 15% in 2010 to 23-25% in 2050 and 36-39% in 2100). Using development policies to curb these pressures requires triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants countries of origin. Increasing migration is therefore a likely phenomenon for the 21st century, and this raises societal and political challenges for most industrialized countries.
    Keywords: international migration,migration prospects,world economy,inequality
    Date: 2018–03–26
  15. By: Soh Kaneko (Faculty of Economics, Oita University); Naoki Yoshihara (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the persistency of the unequal exchange of labor (UE) in international trade. An intertemporal model of a world economy is defined with a leisure preference and no discount factor. Every incompletely specialized free trade equilibrium is characterized as having non-persistent UE, which verifies the convergence of economies without relying on economic growth or diminishing returns to scale. In particular, it characterizes a sub-class of equilibria in which the sequence of real interest rates does not converge to zero, but UE tends to disappear while equivalently the distribution of capital assets tends to be equalized in the long run.
    Keywords: Unequal exchange of labor; a world economy with a leisure preference; non-stationary relative prices of commodities
    JEL: D51 D63 D91
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Gianluca Santoni
    Abstract: Les difficultés du multilatéralisme ont renouvelé l'intérêt pour le régionalisme en matière d'accord commercial. Avec quels partenaires un pays a-t-il un intérêt économique à signer un accord ? Quels seraient les gains à le faire quand un tel accord n'existe pas ? Au contraire, y a-t-il des gains à sortir d'accords signés pour lesquels il n'y a au départ pas d'intérêt économique ? Telles sont les questions que l'étude reprise dans cette Lettre permet d'aborder. Ses résultats montrent que la décision de sortir d'accords existants, quand bien même ils ne seraient pas justifiés par un intérêt économique, occasionne des pertes, et qu'il y a encore des gains à attendre de la signature de nouveaux accords pour lesquels il existe un intérêt économique. Néanmoins, les gains à attendre d'un accord régional, comme celui poussé par la Chine depuis novembre 2012 en réaction au partenariat Trans-Pacifique à 11, diminuent au fil du temps. Parce qu'elle est devenue un acteur d'importance globale, ce n'est plus tant avec ses voisins que la Chine a intérêt à signer des accords, mais avec d'autres puissances mondiales plus éloignées telles que l'Union européenne.
    Date: 2018–05–16
  17. By: C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Jos\'e Lages; Dima L. Shepelyansky
    Abstract: We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several countries, including China, Russia and USA, properly taking into account the influence of all other world countries and their economic activities. Within this analysis we also obtain the sensitivity of economy sectors and EU countries to petroleum activity sector. We show that this approach takes into account multiplicity of network links with economy interactions between countries and activity sectors thus providing more rich information compared to the usual export-import analysis.
    Date: 2019–05
  18. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon)
    Abstract: Linkages between foreign aid, terrorism and natural resource (fuel and iron ore) exports are investigated in this study. The focus is on 78 developing countries with data for the period 1984 to 2008. The generalised method of moment is employed as empirical strategy. Three main foreign aid variables are used for the analysis, namely: bilateral aid, multilateral aid and total aid. The corresponding terrorism variables employed are: domestic terrorism, transnational terrorism, unclear terrorism and total terrorism. The following findings are established. First, the criteria informing the validity of specifications corresponding to iron ore exports do not hold. Second, there is evidence of convergence in fuel exports. Third, whereas the unconditional impacts of aid dynamics are not significant, the unconditional impacts of terrorism dynamics are consistently positive on fuel exports. Fourth, the interaction between terrorism and aid dynamics consistently display negative signs, with corresponding modifying aid thresholds within respective ranges. Unexpected signs are elicited and policy implications discussed. Given the unexpected results, an extended analysis is performed in which net effects are computed. These net effects are constitutive of the unconditional effect from terrorism and the conditional impacts from the interaction between foreign aid and terrorism dynamics. Based on the extended analysis, bilateral aid and total aid modulate terrorism dynamics to induce net positive effects on fuel exports while multilateral aid moderates terrorism dynamics to engender negative net effects on fuel exports. The research improves extant knowledge on nexuses between resources, terrorism and foreign aid.
    Keywords: Foreign Aid; Exports; Natural Resources; Terrorism; Economic Development
    JEL: F40 F23 F35 Q34 O40
    Date: 2019–01
  19. By: Marie Vandresse
    Abstract: This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. In this case, 'consistent' means that the sum of all intra-EU movements should be equal to 0. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.This paper shows that the currently available official statistics on migration flows can be used to build a multiregional migration model at the EU level. Although more developments should be implemented to test and improve the model, it produces promising results.
    Keywords: Demography, International migration, Multiregional population projection
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2018–06–08
  20. By: Yasemin Erduman; Okan Eren; Selcuk Gul
    Abstract: This study explores the evolution of the import content of production and exports in Turkey for the 2002-2017 period. Using 2002 and 2012 input-output tables, we estimate the production and imported input use for the remaining years based on a large data set of production and foreign trade for 20 selected sectors, mostly from the manufacturing industry. Import requirement ratios, comprising both direct and indirect linkages, for each sector are calculated using the Leontief inverse matrix. Our findings indicate that import dependency increases for exports, but stays roughly the same for production over time. In general, the import content of production is below the import content of exports. This divergence can mainly be attributed to the services sector, which has relatively low import dependency, yet a significant share in production. Sectors with the highest import requirements are found to be those with higher capital and technology intensity such as coke and refined petroleum products, basic metals and motor vehicles. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery; service and mining sectors are found to have the lowest import requirements.
    Keywords: Input-output tables, Leontief inverse matrix, import content
    JEL: C67 D57 F14 L60
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Fernanda L. Lopez de Leon; Markus Bindemann
    Abstract: The 2016 EU referendum result -the so-called Brexit vote-was widely perceived as a statement against immigration. We conducted a field-experiment to test whether the Brexit vote triggered anti-social attitudes. In a computerized quiz, our (non-deceptive) intervention randomized the information of whether the local majority voted to Leave or to Remain in the EU. We find that such information in support of Brexit increased negative attitudes towards immigrants. Moreover, the impactful treatments inhibited (rather than reinforced) individuals' pre-existing views to conform to the vote of the majority. Our findings provide insight into the effects of referenda results in changing individuals' attitudes.
    Date: 2019–04
  22. By: Satti Osman Mohamed Nour, Samia (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University)
    Abstract: This paper uses both the descriptive and comparative approaches to provide overview of migration of higher education students from North Africa region. We fill the gap in the African literature and present a more comprehensive and recent analysis of migration of higher education students from North Africa region using UNESCO recent secondary data on international students mobility in tertiary education. We provide an interesting comparative analysis of migration of higher education students from North Africa region compared to South Africa. A novel element in our analysis is that we examine migration of higher education students from North Africa from both national and regional perspectives; mainly we discuss migration of higher education students for each individual country in North Africa region (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia) and then discuss the total for the entire North Africa region. Therefore, we provide an extremely valuable contribution to the increasing debate in the international literature concerning the increasing interaction between migration and increasing internationalisation of higher education. Our findings support the first hypothesis that from national perspective, the pattern and size of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region increased substantially over the past years but the distribution showed considerable variation across North African countries. Our results corroborate the second hypothesis that the increasing trend of migration of higher education students from the North Africa region is caused by several push-pull factors (e.g. economic, social, political, cultural and educational). Our results support the third hypothesis that migration of higher education students from the North Africa region lead to mixed positive and negative impacts (e.g. transfer of knowledge, brain gain and skill acquisition for returned migrant students, but weak capacity to retain talents and brain drain for non-returned migrant students). Our findings corroborate the fourth hypothesis that skills of migrant higher education students from North Africa region can be better mobilised in their countries of origin by addressing the push-pull factors that determine migration of skills from the North Africa region.
    Keywords: Migration, higher education students, International student mobility, Internationalisation of higher education, Africa, North Africa region
    JEL: J60 J61 I23 I25
    Date: 2019–04–08
  23. By: Akinbode, Sakiru Oladele; Ojo, Olutunki Timothy
    Abstract: There have been fluctuations in the exchange rate of Naira to other world major currencies especially the US Dollar over time. The implication of this on agricultural exports is unknown. This study determined the effect of exchange rate returns volatility on Nigeria's agricultural export performance using annual data from 1980-2015 sourced from CBN and FAOSTAT. The ARCH-LM test was carried out to establish the presence ofheteroscedasticity in the exchange rate return series as revealed by the significant F-statistic and the nR2• The GARCH (1, 1) model was used to generate the exchange rate return volatiiity series which was subsequently incorporated into the ARDL model for determining factors affecting agricultural exports (cocoa and rubber). The Bound test revealed longrun relationship among variables. Results indicated that exchange rate return volatility did not significantly affect exports both in the short-run and the long-run. This may be partially attributed to the inelastic nature of agricultural commodities' supply particularly in the short run. It was also revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate, inflation, GDP, domestic prices, world prices and agricultural export. The study recommended among others that fiscal and monetary policies such as lower interest rate and import restriction on certain agricultural products should be adopted by the relevant authorities alongside other measures which may improve local production to meet both international and local demands, thereby, improving agricultural export and raising foreign exchange earnings which may translate to sustainable economic growth and lead the country out of recession.
    Keywords: Agribusiness
    Date: 2017–10
  24. By: Thierry Mayer; Walter Steingress
    Abstract: This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation. This theory-consistent aggregation leads to unbiased estimates when prices are set in an international currency as postulated by the dominant currency paradigm. We use Monte-Carlo simulations to compare elasticity estimates based on this new “ideal-REER” regression against typical regression specifications found in the REER literature. The results show that the biases are small (around 1 percent) for the exchange rate and large (around 10 percent) for the demand elasticity. We find empirical support for this prediction from annual trade flow data. The difference between elasticities estimated on the bilateral and aggregate levels reduces significantly when applying an ideal-REER regression rather than a standard REER approach.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Exchange rates; International topics
    JEL: F11 F12 F31 F32
    Date: 2019–05
  25. By: Findlay Ronald
    Abstract: This paper studies the political and economic evolution of trade and international relations of the nations and regions of Asia between themselves and the rest of the world over the past millennium, paying particular attention to: the Pax Mongolica and overland trade during the Middle Ages; the European intrusion at the turn of the fifteenth century and the impact of the New World; the spread of European imperialism and the rise of nationalism and the achievement of independence.A final section discusses the comparative evolution of Europe and Asia and the question of why the Industrial Revolution did not first occur in Asia.
    Keywords: Catchup,Dynastic cycle,Malthus-Ricardo model,Globalization
    Date: 2018
  26. By: McMahon, James
    Abstract: From the 1980s to the present, Hollywood's major distributors have been able to redistribute U.S. theatrical attendance to the advantage of their biggest blockbusters and franchises. At the global scale and during the same period, Hollywood has been leveraging U.S. foreign power to break ground in countries that have historically protected and supported their domestic film culture. For example, Hollywood's major distributors have increased their power in such countries as Mexico, Canada, Australia and South Korea (Jin, 2011). This paper will analyze a pertinent 'test case' for Hollywood's global power: China and its film market. Not only does China have a film-quota policy that restricts the number of theatrical releases that have a foreign distributor (~ 20 to 34 films per year), the Communist Party has also nurtured a Chinese film business that has steady film releases and its own movie star system. Theoretically, China would be a prime example of a film market that would need to be opened with the assistance of the U.S. government. Empirically, however, the case of Chinese cinema might be a curious exception; we can investigate how a political economic strategy rooted in explicit power is reaching a limit. Hollywood is, potentially without any other option, taking a more friendly, collaborative approach with China's censorship rules and its quota and film-production laws.
    Keywords: China,cinema,Hollywood,power,international trade,United States
    Date: 2019
  27. By: Sen Ritwika
    Abstract: This paper analyses policy options to promote local content in Uganda as it transitions into an oil-producing country. It contends that productive linkages between oil and gas exporters and domestic suppliers in a range of ‘connected’ goods and services sectors can be a source of broad-based economic growth.However, the success of policy initiatives or extensive regulatory requirements will ultimately hinge on domestic supplier capabilities to overcome barriers to entry into the global industry.The analysis comprises an evaluation of existing local content policies in Uganda, a mapping of the natural resource value chain, and an assessment of domestic firm capabilities to supply the anticipated demand for goods and services from the oil and gas industry.
    Keywords: Local content,Oil and gas,Tax administration data
    Date: 2018
  28. By: Ojo, Marianne
    Abstract: Whilst the legal and economic challenges presented by Brexit are gradually becoming more evident, observations and recommendations are already being drawn from consequences of a “ no deal scenario” and particularly the possibilities of entering into a variant of a Free Trade Agreement which should, prevent a “no deal” situation. Such a Free Trade Agreement existing between the current 28 EU Member States and the three EEA European Free Trade Association (EFTA) States Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway (EEA Internal Market) This paper, amongst other objectives, is aimed at highlighting such proposals which have been put forward to avert a “no deal scenario”. It is obvious that change – and more specifically, fundamental legislative, regulatory overhauls, will require not only the incorporation of expertise from different fields, but also time consuming and costly resources to address the demands of the transitional and implementation periods of such legislatively transformed landscapes. Certainly, a gradual process of incorporating and adapting to new regulatory and legislative changes and environments – and particularly in respect of economically sensitive related matters, would require not only thorough and dedicated observatory and monitoring periods, but also one which facilitates and encourages a process of greater democratic accountability and transparency to be incorporated into the legislative processes. Even though Brexit has generated a great degree of economic uncertainty – which has in turn presented challenges – as well as consequences, it also presents opportunities for new actors to engage and influence vital decision making aspects in areas which particularly revolve around information technology, sustainable development, innovation – as well hybrid financial instruments and volatile mediums which are embodied and personified by crypto currencies, derivatives and other complex financial instruments and mediums of exchange - all of which are reflective of a rapidly changing and evolving financial environment. The challenges now involve to a larger extent, the manner and the degree of relevance to which vital and dominating actors and institutions will be accurately represented and impact future legislation – particularly those which focus around issues relating to trade, environment and sustainable development policies.
    Keywords: financial services; Brexit; Information Technology; innovation; e commerce; sustainability; GATS
    JEL: F1 F16 F18 G1 G14 G18 G3 K2
    Date: 2019–05
  29. By: Creane, Anthony
    Abstract: Production runs suffer from inadvertent quality variation. There are good apples; there are bad apples (also known as “seconds”). The Alchian-Allen theorem states that a common perunit charge on two goods differentiated only by quality, increases the relative export demand for the higher quality good leading to local consumers lamenting that they cannot find them locally. While usually stated for competitive markets, firms with market power also suffer from inadvertent seconds in their production. For example, brand-name retailers send their seconds to outlets, even though this undercuts the demand for their firsts. A model is presented of oligopolistic firms choosing production and what fraction of their first and seconds to export: a model of “shipping the good apples” with strategic competition. In this model an increase in the per-unit charge can increase the absolute fraction of high quality exported. Despite this, shipping the good apples may not hold, that is, an increase in the per-unit charge can decrease the quantity demanded of good apples relative to bad ones. Rather, shipping the good apples holds when the export market’s willingness-to-pay for high quality is greater (or greater value for “quality upgrading” (Johnson and Myatt, 2006)). Despite the consumers’ lament, domestic consumer welfare increases with exporting
    Keywords: Market power, Cournot, quality, trade
    JEL: D43 F12 L2
    Date: 2019–05
  30. By: Konstantinos Chisiridis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Kostas Mouratidis; Theodore Panagiotidis
    Abstract: The European north-south divide has been an issue of a long-standing debate. We employ a Global VAR model for 28 developed and developing countries to examine the interaction between the global trade imbalances and their impact within the euro-area framework. The aim is to assess the propagation mechanisms of real shocks, focusing on the interconnections among the north euro area and the south euro area. We incorporate theory-based long-run restrictions and examine the effects of (i) non-export real output shocks, (ii) expansionary shocks and (iii) real exchange rate shocks. The results provide support for symmetric adjustment in the euro area; an expansionary policy of the north euro area and increased competitiveness in the south euro area can alleviate trade imbalances of the debtor euro area economies. From the south euro area perspective, internal devaluation is the most beneficial policy. North euro area and U.S. origin shocks to domestic output exert a dominant influence in the rest of the Europe and Asia while the strong linkage between trade flows within the euro area is confirmed.
    Keywords: North-South Euro Area Trade Imbalances, Global Trade Imbalances, International Linkages, Global VAR, Spillover Effects
    JEL: C33 E27 F14
    Date: 2018–11
  31. By: Ricciuti Roberto; Baronchelli Adelaide
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between climate and migration in rural households in Viet Nam.We propose an instrumental variable approach that controls for the potential endogeneity between crop production and migration using monthly minimum temperatures in the growing season as an instrument of rice production. Results show that the rise in minimum temperature during the core month of the growing season (i.e. June) does cause a reduction in rice production which, in turn, has a positive impact on people’s propensity to migrate.This finding is robust to the use of different estimators and plausible violations to exogeneity of the instrument.
    Keywords: Food industry and trade,Migration,Climate change
    Date: 2018
  32. By: Edewor, S. E.; Dipeolu, A.O.; Ashaolu O. F.; Akinbode, S.O.; Ogbe, A. O.; Edewor, A.O.; Tolorunju, E. T.; Oladeji S.O.
    Abstract: Over the past few years, Nigeria has been faced with a series of policy changes and political instability that has somewhat led to the incidence of capital flight from Nigeria. This study sought to examine the contribution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the Agricultural Sector. The study made use of annual time series of some macroeconomic variables and agricultural productivity spanning the period 1990 to 2016. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics and Multiple Regression Model. The data was further tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dicky-Fuller unit root test where it was ascertained that the entire hypothesized variable were stationary were significant(p<0.01) at first difference. The study revealed that the amount allocated to agricultural sector declined steadily over the years with all-time highest in the 90's. Similarly, the determinants of agricultural productivity include exchange rate, interest rates, GDP and FDI inflow into the agricultural sector. The study therefore recommends that an enabling environment be created through stable macroeconomic policies (monitoring of interest and exchange rates) and political stability be promoted so as to attract both domestic and foreign investors to the country.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2017–10
  33. By: Ellis Mia; McMillan Margaret
    Abstract: Tanzania is rich with natural resources, which have significant potential to contribute to the country’s economic development.Several laws recently passed in Tanzania are dedicated to establishing linkages between foreign firms in natural resource extraction and the local economy. This paper documents this legislation and the institutions set up to enforce and monitor these laws.Effectiveness of local content legislation and the potential for firms in the mining sector to contribute to local development are then evaluated using a combination of qualitative and quantitative evidence. We then examine other developing countries’ experiences with local content legislation, drawing lessons for Tanzania.
    Keywords: Extractive industries,Local content,Mining,Natural gas,Natural resources
    Date: 2018

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