nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2018‒10‒08
thirty papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation Using the Gravity Model and the Synthetic Control Methods By Amat Adarov
  2. Trade Balance Analysis in Zimbabwe: Import and Export Examination Using Vector Auto-Regression Model By Bonga, Wellington G.
  3. The Not-So-Generalized Effects of the Generalized System of Preferences By Emanuel Ornelas; Marcos Ritel
  4. Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement By Gabriel Felbermayr; Fukunari Kimura; Toshihiro Okubo; Marina Steininger
  5. On the comparative advantage of U.S. manufacturing: evidence from the shale gas revolution By Arezki, Rabah; Fetzer, Thiemo; Pisch, Frank
  6. The Lack of Dynamic Gains from Trade in Agriculture: Implications for Governing Agricultural Trade By Moon, Wanki
  7. How Preferential Trade Agreements Affect the U.S. Economy By Congressional Budget Office
  8. India's Recent Inward Foreign Direct Investment: An Assessment By KS, Chalapati Rao; Dhar, Biswajit
  9. Mechanisms of non-tariff bariers in agri-food trade between Poland and the Chech Republic on the intra-EU market By Ambroziak, Adam A.; Grochowska, Renata
  10. The Falling Elasticity of Global Trade to Economic Activity: Testing the Demand Channel By Marc Auboin; Floriana Borino
  11. Population, Technological Progress and the Welfare of the North-South Trade: A Revisit of the Classic Ricardian Model By Yuqing Xing; Bo Zhang
  12. Exploring the Consumer welfare effects of MCOOL By Osei, Yeboah; Cephas, Naanwaab; Kingsley, Ekwemalor; Kelly, Chege
  13. To What Extent Does Trade Liberalisation Affect The Financial Performance of Korean Co-operatives? By Rünzel, Max Allan Siegfried; Han, Doo Bong
  14. The Evolution of Trade Unit Values: A Measurement on Quality By Alexandra Bykova; Mahdi Ghodsi; Robert Stehrer
  15. Global changes in the geographical structure of trade in Central Asia: Real flows in the 1989-2016 period versus gravity model predictions By Gharleghi, Behrooz; Popov, Vladimir
  16. Trade and Terroir. The Political Economy of the World’s First Geographical Indications By Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
  17. Offshoring, Mismatch, and Labor Market Outcomes By Arseneau, David; Epstein, Brendan
  18. Comparative Advantage in Digital Trade By Alan V. Deardorff
  19. MCMC estimation of panel gravity models in the presence of network dependence By LeSage, James P.; Fischer, Manfred M.
  20. Living with lower productivity growth: Impact on exports By Di Mauro, Filippo; Mottironi, Bernardo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco; Zona-Mattioli, Alessandro
  21. Assessing the Competitiveness of the Portuguese Chemical Sector By Ana Rita Marques; Cátia Silva
  22. Emigrant Selection and Wages: the Case of Poland By Anna Rosso
  23. Living with Lower Productivity Growth: Impact on Exports By Filippo di Mauro; Bernardo Mottironi; Gianmarco Ottaviano; Alessandro Zona-Mattioli
  24. Innovative Business Models In The Strategic Adaptation Of Multinationals To Emerging Economy Environment By Alexey Bereznoy
  25. A Classroom Experiment on the Specific Factors Model By Lin, Yu-Hsuan
  26. Impacts of the Largest Export Guaranteed Operations in Finland By Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kuusi, Tero
  27. "Trade and foreign direct investment in the Baltic Sea Region, 1990-2015: lessons from attempts at regional integration in post-communist Europe" By Mikael Olsson; Mikael Lönnborg
  28. Global silver: Bullion or Specie? Supply and demand in the making of the early modern global economy By Irigoin, Alejandra
  29. Challenges ahead for Trade Promotion Organizations in Africa By Mauro BOFFA; Jaime DE MELO
  30. Globalization, Structural Change and Innovation in Emerging Economies: The Impact on Employment and Skills By Marco Vivarelli

  1. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The study examines the impact of Eurasian economic integration at aggregate and industry levels using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic control methods. The analysis finds that the trade creation effect associated with the establishment of the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010 and its further deepening, while initially exhibiting high significance, largely dissipated towards the year 2015. Overall, the net impact was overwhelmingly positive for Belarus, generally positive for Russia and mixed for Kazakhstan. Most gains are attributed to the exports of commodities (mineral products and metals), agri-food sector, and, notably, machinery and transportation sectors. The inception of the Eurasian bloc was also associated with trade diversion effects, consistent with the expectations for trade-diverting customs unions, yet the impact on imports from some countries and sectors outside the bloc, on the contrary, was positive.
    Keywords: Eurasian integration, economic integration, trade policy impact, synthetic counterfactual method, gravity model of trade
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2018–09
  2. By: Bonga, Wellington G.
    Abstract: Zimbabwe, just like many other developing nations have failed to register a positive trade balance for the past decade. Zimbabwe, is then labelled a net-importer or a permanent net-importer, since imports have always been greater than exports. Despite differences in value of imports and exports, quality is also essential to determine the country’s development path. The trade balance is affected by both international and domestic events. Chief exports for Zimbabwe remains primary products which are unprocessed, while the country imports finished products which have been value-added. The study seeks to analyse the trade balance over the years 1980 to 2017, paying particular attention to the periodic trends. The study also explore the relationship between the trade balance components, being imports and exports. The study employed a trend analysis and a statistical analysis to attain its study objectives. The study noted a general rise in both exports and imports, however imports significantly above imports for the entire study period, whether for merchandise or non-merchandise. ADF unit root tests were applied to time series data and variables were found to be integrated of order one. Imports have been found to Granger cause exports while exports Granger cause imports as well. Johansen Cointegration test shows that exports and imports are cointegrated, however using the VAR model, the error correction term was insignificant, discarding the existence of a longrun relationship. Exports levels are affected by its past values and also past values of imports significantly. Imports are also affected by historical exports significantly. Improvement in export policy is critical, value addition to exports, market fetching through regionalism and import substitution is essential to manage the trade balance.
    Keywords: Trade balance, Trade deficit, Trade surplus, Exports, Imports, Cointegration, Vector Auto-Regression, Granger Causality, Zimbabwe
    JEL: C01 C32 F13 F15 F18 F42 F43
    Date: 2018–09–14
  3. By: Emanuel Ornelas; Marcos Ritel
    Abstract: We use an empirical gravity equation approach to study how nonreciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), enacted mainly through the Generalized System of Preferences, affect the exports of the beneficiary nations. In line with existing studies, the average trade effect stemming from nonreciprocal preferences is highly unstable across specifications. However, once we allow for heterogeneous effects, results become robust and economically important. Specifically, NRTPs have a strong effect on the exports of beneficiaries when they are members of the World Trade Organization and are very poor. Not-so-poor beneficiaries also expand foreign sales, but only if they are not WTO members. For all others, the average export effects of NRTPs are mute.
    Keywords: trade preferences, gravity equation, trade policy, nonreciprocity, GSP
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F55 O19 O24
    Date: 2018–10
  4. By: Gabriel Felbermayr; Fukunari Kimura; Toshihiro Okubo; Marina Steininger
    Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the new EU-Japan free trade agreement (FTA), the biggest bilateral deal that both the EU and Japan have concluded so far. It employs a generalized variant of the Eaton-Kortum (2002) model, featuring multiple sectors, input-output linkages, services trade, and non-tariff barriers (NTBs). It uses the results of an econometric ex-post analysis of a related FTA, the one between the EU and Korea, in force since 2011, to approximate the expected reductions in the costs of NTBs. This approach yields long-run welfare effects for Japan of about 18 bn. USD per year (0.31% of GDP) and of about 15 bn. USD (0.10%) for the EU. On average, the agreement does not appear to harm third countries, but the Americas, Africa and MENA countries slightly lose. 14% of the welfare gains inside the FTA stem from tariffs, the remaining 86% from NTB reform, and the services sector accounts for more than half. In the EU, value added in the agri-food sector goes up most, while in Japan the manufacturing and services sectors gain.
    Keywords: free trade agreements, general equilibrium, quantitative trade models, Japan, European Union
    JEL: F15 F17 N74
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Arezki, Rabah; Fetzer, Thiemo; Pisch, Frank
    Abstract: This paper provides novel empirical evidence of the effects of a plausibly exogenous change in relative factor prices on United States manufacturing production and trade. The shale gas revolution has led to (very) large and persistent differences in the price of natural gas between the United States and the rest of the world reflecting differences in endowment of difficult-to-trade natural gas. Guided by economic theory, empirical tests on output, factor reallocation and international trade are conducted. Results show that U.S. manufacturing exports have grown by about 10 percent on account of their energy intensity since the onset of the shale revolution. We also document that the U.S. shale revolution is operating both at the intensive and extensive margins.
    Keywords: Manufacturing; Exports; Energy prices; Shale gas
    JEL: L71 N52 O13 Q33 R11
    Date: 2017–03–25
  6. By: Moon, Wanki
    Abstract: Research has shown that agricultural trade is not poised to generate dynamic/productivity gains in contrast to the mounting evidence of such gains (in addition to the conventional static gains) in manufacturing. This paper interprets below the lack of the dynamic gains from trade in agriculture in order to provide further insights to better understanding the nature of the difficulty of liberalizing agricultural trade; proffer development strategies for food-importing low income countries; and suggest a new way of governing agricultural trade in the post-Doha Round era.
    Keywords: International Development, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018–01–17
  7. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: In CBO's view, the consensus among economic studies is that preferential trade agreements have had small positive effects on the U.S. economy. Although the benefits of those agreements tend to accrue to everyone, the costs have been concentrated among workers and businesses exposed to greater competition from U.S. trade agreement partners.
    JEL: F10 F13 F16
    Date: 2016–09–29
  8. By: KS, Chalapati Rao; Dhar, Biswajit
    Abstract: Most often the reported FDI flows are accepted unquestioningly and are analysed and interpreted in a simplistic manner in spite of their many nuances. The discovery of some serious limitations and specific features of India’s FDI inflows adds a hitherto little discussed dimension which impacts the understanding of the flows significantly. The study, India’s Recent Inward Foreign Direct Investment: An Assessment, published in July 2018, vividly explains the various shortcomings and special features of the data using multiple examples and case studies and demonstrates that the annual aggregates cannot provide adequate guidance regarding the year-to-year changes. Nor do they truly reflect capacity creation in the economy. The problem turns out to be more acute at the sectoral level. The study conveys a strong message that the reporting mechanism and analysis have to be reshaped drastically in order to provide reliable guidance to policymakers and other national and international users. It could provide a template for understating the inflows into developing countries, in general.
    Keywords: FDI, India, Make in India, RBI, Foreign Direct Investment, Data issues, OECD, UNCTAD, World Bank, Industrial Policy, Repatriation, Private Equity, DIPP, BoP, Remittanes
    JEL: F2 F21 F3 O16 P45
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Ambroziak, Adam A.; Grochowska, Renata
    Abstract: The paper aimed identification of mechanisms of non-tariff barriers used by the EU Member States that affect the intra-EU exchange of agri-food products on the example of the trade between Poland and the Czech Republic. In the beginning the paper presents, the main theoretical assumptions of the free movement of goods, based on subsequent economic integration stages according to Balassa. Next it discusses, examples of the identified actions of the Czech Republic against the agri-food products imported from Poland, together with an analysis of potential economic mechanisms resulting from these activities. The next section presents the statistical effects of trade exchange, which allows us to formulate conclusions regarding the potential consequences of the barriers. On the basis of the analysis, it was found that soft non-tariff barriers on the Czech market have not brought any significant negative effects for the overall Polish exports of agri-food products to the Czech Republic. The negative consequences have been borne by individual traders, who according to the Czech authorities offered products that do not meet the requirements. Moreover, our study identified traditional non-tariff barriers introduced on the Czech market for export of all food suppliers which led to the collapse of exports from Poland, while at the same time the growth of the main suppliers from other EU Member States continued to grow.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Marc Auboin; Floriana Borino
    Abstract: Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990’s to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade slowdown, and related falling trade-to-income elasticity, was structural or cyclical. Some papers emphasized the slowing pace of international vertical specialization. Other works emphasized the prominent role of aggregate demand, notably when weighted by its trade component. Our paper goes in this latter direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared results with regressions using GDP. The integration of IAD allows us to predict 76% to 86% of the changes in global imports, a better performance than if using GDP. The use of IAD also enabled us to measure the relative importance of each component of demand, according to their trade intensity. The model is able to account for over 90% of the recent trade slowdown (2012-2015), with IAD alone explaining 80% of it. The slowdown in global value chains explains more than half of the remaining share of the global trade slowdown, not explained by demand factors. Protectionism does not come up as statistically significant.
    Keywords: investment, global outlook, trade policy, trade forecasting, business cycles
    JEL: E22 F01 F13 F17 F44
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Bo Zhang (School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how the technology progress of the South country affects the welfare of the North country in a free trade world. Using the standard Ricardian model of the North-South trade, we show that, import biased technological progress of the South will undermine the welfare of the North, once the cumulative technological progress of the South exceeds a threshold. The relative population size of the South to North affects the threshold. Generally, a relatively larger South country has a lower threshold and the technological difference between the two countries remains even beyond the threshold. To a certain extent, the findings of the paper offer an theoretical explanation about the concerns of rising China in an integrated world economy.
    Date: 2018–09
  12. By: Osei, Yeboah; Cephas, Naanwaab; Kingsley, Ekwemalor; Kelly, Chege
    Abstract: Imposing MCOOL in the United States was anticipated to affect demand by providing customers with additional, valuable information. Advocacy groups for MCOOL pointed to studies suggesting that consumers would prefer U.S. meat products and would be willing to pay premiums for confirmation of U.S. origin. MCOOL detractors, including Canada and Mexico, argued that the increased burden from record keeping would favor domestic meat. The subsequent lawsuits and WTO hearings have called into question the relative value of MCOOL to consumers as compared to costs faced by both domestic meat processors and North American trading partners promoting the idea that MCOOL imposes restrictions on imports and acts as a de facto trade barrier. To measure consumer welfare effects on MCOOL, we develop a measure by approximating Hicksian compensating variation as a function of three imported meat product prices and compensated price elasticities. The results show a mild consumer welfare and decrease in demand when MCOOL was implemented.
    Keywords: Agribusiness
    Date: 2018–01–17
  13. By: Rünzel, Max Allan Siegfried; Han, Doo Bong
    Abstract: This study aims at evaluating agricultural co-operative performance in Korea based on financial data vis-à-vis trade liberalisation after subsequent Free Trade Agreements. With the help of the Du Pont expansion method this paper examines the financial performance and its drivers for 1,060 agricultural primary Korean co-operatives between 2012 and 2016 within the Korean National Agricultural Cooperatives Federation. Subsequently, we estimate the effect of the producer protection ratio, agricultural export and import volumes, co-operative size and world food prices on co-operatives' net profit margins, total asset turnovers and equity multipliers. The empirical results show that trade liberalisation has an ambiguous effect on agricultural co-operatives. Increased exports have a positive effect on the co-operatives' return on equity and profitability while imports have a reducing effect. Greater import and export volumes do not result in significant effects on efficiency and solvency. This study provides valuable lessons for countries seeking to alleviate external shocks on farm income and the rural economy following trade liberalisation by emphasising strong co-operative structures, as benefits and bottlenecks of the co-operative organisational structure are displayed.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018–01–17
  14. By: Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: In this paper, unit values and unit value ratios in bilateral manufacturing trade across all countries in the world are analysed over the period 1998-2014. Descriptive evidence of price differences across country groups and groups of manufacturing industries according to technology intensity is presented. Furthermore, the determining factors of unit values taking both demand and supply side factors into account are analysed. Estimation results confirm the arguments put forward in the existing literature that (i) advanced countries demand and supply high-quality products; (ii) capital- and skill-abundant countries export higher quality products, and (iii) larger economies tend to have lower unit values in their exports due to scale effects. However, the results by different industries and country groups point at a more diverse pattern.
    Keywords: export unit value, unit value ratio, product quality, international trade
    JEL: F02 F14 C23
    Date: 2018–09
  15. By: Gharleghi, Behrooz; Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: In the 1980s, six former southern republics of the USSR (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), like other former Soviet republics, traded very intensively both between themselves and with the other Soviet republics, but had a meagre volume of trade with the rest of the world. After the transition to the market, the deregulation of foreign trade, and the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, trade between the former Soviet republics shrank dramatically and was only partially replaced by trade with other countries, mostly from Western Europe. In the 2000s and 2010s, the relative importance of trade with Western Europe has declined and the share of trade with China and other Asian countries has grown. This paper compares changes in the geographical structure of trade of both former Soviet republics (Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan) and Turkey, with the predictions of the gravity model. The gravity model suggests that trade between two countries is proportionate to their respective GDPs and is inversely related to the geographical distance between them.2 Turkey serves as a yardstick for comparison. For Turkey, changes in its geographical trade structure resulted from a rise in the proportion of trade with Asian countries and a decline in the proportion of trade with other regions in the world economy. In contrast, for the former Soviet republics there was an additional reason for changes in their geographical trade structure: the collapse of trade within the former USSR.
    Keywords: Central Asia, Gravity Model, Trade
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2018–09–17
  16. By: Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: The world’s first geographical indications (GIs) were in the wine sector and focused on the delineation of the location of production, the ‘terroir’: the Burgundy wines in the fifteenth century, the Port wines and Chianti wines in the eighteenth century, and the Champagne wines in the early twentieth century. We analyze the causes for the introduction of these GIs (‘terroirs’) and for changes in their delineation (expansion) later on. Our analysis shows that trade played a very important role in the creation of the ‘terroirs’ but not always through the same mechanisms. For the Port and Chianti GIs it was exports to Britain that were crucial; for Burgundy it was domestic trade to Paris; and for the Champagne GI it was not exports but pressure from wine imports and new wine regions that played a crucial role. For the expansions of the GIs later in history, other factors seem to have been equally important. Expansions of the GIs in the years and centuries after their introduction followed major changes in political power; the spread of a new philosophy in liberal and free markets across Europe; and infrastructure investments which opened up markets and made exports cheaper from “new” producers.
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Arseneau, David; Epstein, Brendan
    Abstract: We study the role of labor market mismatch in the adjustment to a trade liberalization that results in the offshoring of high-tech production. Our model features two-sided heterogeneity in the labor market: high- and low-skilled workers are matched in a frictional labor market with high- and low-tech frms. Mismatch employment occurs when high-skilled workers choose to accept a less desirable job in the low-tech industry. The main result is that this type of job displacement is actually benefcial for the labor market in the country doing the o¤shoring. The reason is that mismatch allows this economy to reallocate domestic high-skilled labor across both high- and low-tech industries. In doing so, this reallocation dampens both the increase in the aggregate unemployment rate and the decline in aggregate wages that come as a consequence of shifting domestic production abroad. From a policy perspective, this result is perhaps counter-intuitive because it suggests that some degree of job dislocation is actually desirable as it helps facilitate adjustment in the labor market following a trade liberalization.
    Keywords: search and matching; unemployment; vacancies; trade.
    JEL: E24 F16 J63
    Date: 2017
  18. By: Alan V. Deardorff (University of Michigan)
    Abstract: Digital trade takes a variety of forms, several of which are examined here with regard to whether they can be explained by comparative advantage. The five forms of digital trade considered are 1) physical products that are advertised, ordered, and/or paid for digitally, but transported by normal trade means; 2) digital products (music, movies, books, software) that are transmitted to purchasers via the internet and are most likely to be marketed and paid for via that as well; 3) services that are provided remotely by digital means; 4) data storage and computer applications accessible in the ÒcloudÓ; and 5) web platforms that serve an international audience and are supported by advertising. I argue that the first three of these can be well explained by comparative advantage, but there are problems with the last two.
    Keywords: digital trade, comparative advantage
    JEL: F1 F11
    Date: 2017–11–13
  19. By: LeSage, James P.; Fischer, Manfred M.
    Abstract: Past focus in the panel gravity literature has been on multidimensional fixed effects specifications in an effort to accommodate heterogeneity. After introducing fixed effects for each origin- destination dyad and time-period speciffic effects, we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence in flows. We propose a simultaneous dependence gravity model that allows for network dependence in flows, along with computationally efficient MCMC estimation methods that produce a Monte Carlo integration estimate of log-marginal likelihood useful for model comparison. Application of the model to a panel of trade flows points to network spillover effects, suggesting the presence of network dependence and biased estimates from conventional trade flow specifications.
    Keywords: origin-destination panel data flows, cross-sectional dependence, log-marginal likelihood, sociocultural distance, convex combinations of interaction matrices
    Date: 2018–10–02
  20. By: Di Mauro, Filippo; Mottironi, Bernardo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco; Zona-Mattioli, Alessandro
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of sustained lower productivity growth on exports, by looking at the role of the productivity distribution and allocative efficiency as drivers of export performance. It follows and goes beyond the work of Barba Navaretti et al. (2017), analysing the effects of productivity on exports depending on the dynamics of allocative efficiency. Low productivity growth is a well-documented stylised fact in Western countries - and possibly a reality likely to persist for some time. What could be the impact of persistent sluggish growth of productivity on exports? To shed light on this question, this paper examines the relationship between the productivity distribution of firms and sectoral export performance. The structure of firms within countries or even sectors matters tremendously for the nexus between productivity and exports at the macroeconomic level, as the theoretical and empirical literature documents. For instance, whether too few firms at the top (lack of innovation) or too many firms at the bottom (weak market selection) drives slow average productivity at the macro level has very different implications and therefore demands different policy responses.
    Keywords: productivity,exports
    Date: 2018
  21. By: Ana Rita Marques; Cátia Silva
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine the set of variables that determine competitiveness in the Portuguese Chemical sector. By performing a micro-econometrics analysis, whose temporal gap ranges between 2010 and 2016, and using data from the Portuguese firms’ population, two models were constructed: the first aims to identify what features influence the export-status of a firm while the second one, a Fixed-effect regression, has the goal of spotting the characteristics associated with higher exports’ volume. It was possible to conclude that the only variables that are associated with a positive impact on both dependent variables are the Export Persistency and the Share of Investment in Innovation. Interesting and unusual results were found regarding the statistical significance and impact of firms’ age and size on their competitiveness.
    Keywords: Chemical, Exports, Competitiveness, Firm-level data
    JEL: D22
    Date: 2018–09
  22. By: Anna Rosso (University of Milan and Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano)
    Abstract: In this paper, I use a unique individual-level pre-migration labour market dataset for Poland, which provides also emigrant final destination, to examine emigrant selection into two major destination countries, the United Kingdom and Germany. Specifically, within a simple theoretical framework, I compare pre-migration observable and unobservable characteristics of emigrants with those of non-emigrants in Poland and test for selection by estimating skill price differences between Poland and the destination based on detailed labour market data for all three countries. I contribute to the migrant selection literature by providing additional evidence on how migrants react to both labour market differences and different migration policies across countries.
    Keywords: International migration, selection, skill prices, EU enlargement, inequality
    JEL: F22 J61 O15 D33
    Date: 2018–09–28
  23. By: Filippo di Mauro (National University of Singapore and CompNet); Bernardo Mottironi (London School of Economics); Gianmarco Ottaviano (Bocconi University); Alessandro Zona-Mattioli (European Central Bank)
    Abstract: Productivity growth has slowed in most Western countries, and the slowdown is likely to persist for some time. This paper investigates the impact of this phenomenon on export performance, with a particular focus on its heterogeneity across countries. To explain such heterogeneity, the authors pay particular attention to the role of productivity distribution and allocative efficiency. They rely on data from the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet), a unique micro-aggregated database that provides a rich set of information on the variables’ distribution at the granular level, together with micro-founded indicators such as the level of allocative efficiency. They argue that increases in both productivity dispersion and allocative efficiency, measured with the methodology of G. Steven Olley and Ariel Pakes, are associated with higher export competitiveness for the set of countries in this analysis. They evaluate four separate scenarios according to different levels of productivity growth and different degrees of allocative efficiency and conclude that, while a reduction in productivity growth is always associated with a decrease in export competitiveness, for those countries placed in the top 10 percent of the distribution of the Olley and Pakes gap, this negative effect can be offset for as long as eight years.
    Keywords: Export competitiveness, Productivity distribution, Allocative efficiency, Productivity slowdown, OP gap
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2018–09
  24. By: Alexey Bereznoy (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the frequently neglected role of business model innovation (BMI) as a key instrument of strategic adaptation of Western multinational enterprises to emerging economy enviroment. Despite an abundance of studies on BMI, prior works have paid little attention to how specific characteristics of emerging economy environment force MNEs to change their business models. In order to fill this gap the author developed the analytical framework allowing to trace potential directions of this changing impact, and suggested a typological classification of respective innovative business models responding to concrete challenges posed by emerging economies to MNEs. The paper identifies the main directions of influence exerted by emerging economy environment on various building blocks of MNEs’ business models, thus enabling related innovative activities. These growing BMI activities entail very serious implications for MNEs’ strategy and organization, and innovation governance mechanisms, which are increasingly required to enhance their abilities to support multiple business models adapted to specific environment in all major host countries
    Keywords: Business model innovation, Multinational enterprises, Emerging economies environment.
    JEL: F23 L22 O33
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Lin, Yu-Hsuan
    Abstract: This paper proposes a classroom-experiment approach to interrogate the specific factors model. Its design differs from earlier work in that students can observe both the factor prices in two different sectors, and the society’s welfare. Students participate as factor owners and can produce both of two kinds of goods by allocating their resources to maximise their teams’ welfare. Their resource endowment, relative prices, and trade rules vary round by round. Based on the outcomes, students discuss the impacts of relatively abundant resources, relative prices and trade rules on team welfare, individual income and the gains from trade. This classroom experiment could foster better learner understanding of the specific factors model, both individually and collectively.
    Keywords: Specific factors model; experiment design; economics education; international trade
    JEL: A22 C90 F16
    Date: 2018–09
  26. By: Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kuusi, Tero
    Abstract: Abstract This study focuses on the impacts of the largest export guaranteed operations on employment and value added including effects through companies’ value chains. The results suggest that the activities of Meyer and Nokia related to export guarantees create value added accounting for 0.29% (Meyer) and 0.27% (Nokia) of the Finnish GDP. Corresponding employment effects are 0.32 % (Meyer) and 0.12 % (Nokia) of the Finnish total employment. These effects cannot be interpreted in such a way that without export guarantees the Finnish GDP and employment would decline correspondingly. Our other results suggest that export guaranteed operations slightly crowd out other activities, but the net effect remains positive. The results also show that the suppliers of Meyer and Nokia are more productive than companies belonging to the control group.
    Keywords: Export credit agency, ECA, Guarantee, Exports, Finnvera, Value added, Employment, Impact, Value chain
    JEL: G23 G28
    Date: 2018–09–25
  27. By: Mikael Olsson (Södertörn University); Mikael Lönnborg (Södertörn University)
    Abstract: "It has been suggested that regionalism is defined “as an economic process whereby economic flows grow more rapidly among a given group of states [in the same region] than between these states and those located elsewhere” [1]. In this paper we approach the economic underpinnings for the Baltic Sea Region by analysing the developments with regard to trade and investment in the quarter of a century that has passed since the fall of the communist regimes that divided the European continent. The paper offers a novel use and presentation of data on two potentially important factors for regional integration; that is, trade and foreign direct investment. It adds to our understanding by combining national data with insights offered from case studies. The main question asked is whether developments with regard to investments and trade are in congruence with the notion of the building of an integrated region? In short, does it make economic sense to talk about a Baltic Sea Region or is the east-west divide still omnipresent? The question of what drives integration is pertinent against the backdrop of current discourse where globalization and factor mobility are increasingly being questioned. In the light of this it is of interest to see what lessons can be drawn from this very recent experiment in (re)uniting a once divided continent. For example, to what extent have the developments with regard to foreign direct investments proved sustainable? What sectors are leading the way and which are lagging? What divisions remain to be tackled? The structure of the paper is such that it starts off with an introduction followed by an overview of the policy initiatives taken to (re)unite this particular part of Europe. In the section to follow, the starting point for potential integration is outlined as we look at the economic reforms that moved the region from Cold War isolation to a process of economic transformation. The main thrust of the paper then comes in a section where developments with regard to trade and foreign direct investment, in turn, are analysed through a novel use of existing sources. The concluding section summarizes the lessons learned from this episode of (attempted) regional integration. In particular we believe there are important insights with regard to the relevance of existing theories on foreign direct investments. Also, the post- communist developments cast new light on the (side) effects of the much heralded policies with regard to mass privatization."
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2018–04
  28. By: Irigoin, Alejandra
    Abstract: In the early modern period the world economy gravitated around the expansion of long distance commerce. Together with navigation improvements silver was the prime commodity which moved the sails of such trade. The disparate availability of, and the particular demand for silver across the globe determined the participation of producers, consumers and intermediaries in a growing global economy. American endowments of silver are a known feature of this process; however, the fact that the supply of silver was in the form of specie is a less known aspect of the integration of the global economy. This chapter surveys the production and export of silver specie out of Spanish America, its intermediation by Europeans and the re-export to Asia. It describes how the sheer volume produced and the quality and consistency of the coin provided familiarity with, and reliability to the Spanish American peso which made it current in most world markets. By the 18th century it has become a currency standard for the international economy which grew together with the production and coinage of silver. Implications varied according to the institutional settings to deal with specie and foreign exchange in each intervening economy. Generalized warfare in late 18th century Europe brought down governance in Spanish America and coinage fragmented along with the political fragmentation of the empire. The emergence of new sovereign republics and the end of minting as known meant the cessation of the silver standard that had contributed to the early modern globalization. A word of caution (and a disclaimer): readers should not expect to find hard quantitative evidence on the monetary regime as the institutional setting produced no consistent statistical information of note. Instead, the essay offers an analytical narrative of the pre-modern world monetary system without central banks.
    Keywords: Silver specie, international currency, international trade, monetary capacity, currency trade, global Smithian growth, early modern global economy
    JEL: E52 N10 N13 N15 N16 N2 N7
    Date: 2018–09–05
  29. By: Mauro BOFFA (European University Institute); Jaime DE MELO (Ferdi)
    Abstract: This study provides an anatomy of the activities of Trade Promotion Organizations (TPOs) in Sub-Saharan Africa, mostly LDCs. Both opportunities and challenges facing TPOs were identified by using a quantitative survey administered online and a structured questionnaire used during phone interviews. The study relied on ITCs’ TPO Network and contacts through FERDI and IGC. Of the 40 online invitations, 12 were filled out and of the 20 invitations for phone interviews, 6 were obtained. Almost all answers were from TPOs not covered in previous evaluations. Data from the online survey were compared with results from previous surveys mostly outside SSA. TPOs in SSA are young, relative to those elsewhere (half were started after 2007) and relatively small (average of 25 employees). Strategic objectives from 88 TPOs previously evaluated are systematically compared. Comparisons with the data gathered for this study reveal a higher elasticity of budget size to employee for SSA than elsewhere probably suggesting greater diversification into new supporting activities in SSA than elsewhere.The study summarizes the challenges and opportunities in each area of operation gathered from the phone interviews (see table 7). The phone interviews revealed that successes were concentrated in the agricultural activities. Word-cloud analysis uncovered convergence of themes (market access, audit, performance). Two challenges facing TPOs in the future are issues relating to the use of the internet and helping firms integrate into value chains (regional or global).AcknowledgementWe thank Anders Aeroe and Anne Chappaz for guidance, Marcelo Olarreaga for feedback during preparation, and Henar Bonet Vega, Ben Mohamed Imamo, Saskia Marx, Andrea Santoni, for their help in contacting TPOs. Collaboration from colleagues at FERDI and IGC helped us expand the sample. We thank all the staff of the Trade Promotion Organizations included in this study for their time and contributions that remain anonymous to retain confidentiality.
    Date: 2018–09
  30. By: Marco Vivarelli
    Abstract: This paper aims to provide a critical overview of the drivers that the relevant theoretical and empirical literature suggests being crucial in dealing with the challenges an emerging country may encounter in its attempts to further catch-up a higher income status, with a particular focus devoted to the implications for the domestic labor market. In the first part of the paper, attention will be focused on structural change, capability building and technological progress, trying to map - using different taxonomies put forward by the innovation literature - the concrete ways through which an emerging country can engage a successful catching-up, having in mind that developing countries are deeply involved into globalized markets where domestic innovation has to be complemented by the role played by international technology transfer. In the second part of the paper, the focus will be moved to the possible consequences of this road to catching-up in terms of employment and skills. In particular, the prescriptions by the conventional trade theory will be contrasted with a view taking into account technology transfer, labor-saving technological progress and skill-enhancing trade.
    Keywords: catching-up, structural change, globalization, capabilities, technological transfer
    Date: 2018–09–28

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