nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2018‒06‒25
twenty papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Impact of Latin-American and Caribbean Antidumping Measures on Chinese Exports By Yan Zhang
  2. Multinational suppliers: Are they different from exporters? By Van Pham; Mauro Caselli; Alan Woodland
  3. Direct and Relative Effects of the Import Tariff: Method and Application Using the Industrial Level Data By Miao, Zhuang; Wu, Xiaokang; Yu, Jinping
  4. Economic Impact of Tariff Hikes - A CGE model analysis - By Kenichi Kawasaki
  5. Productivity Investment, Power Laws, and Welfare Gains from Trade By Yi-Fan Chen; Wen-Tai Hsu; Shin-Kun Peng
  6. Currency Unions, Trade and Heterogeneity By Natalie Chen; Dennis Novy
  7. Miracle or Mirage: What role can trade policies play in tackling global trade imbalances? By Dorothee Flaig; David Haugh; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Dorothée Rouzet; Frank van Tongeren
  8. An adverse social welfare effect of a doubly gainful trade By Stark, Oded; Zawojska, Ewa; Kohler, Wilhelm; Szczygielski, Krzysztof
  9. Network service deregulation and manufacturing exports in Greece By Christian Daude; Christine de la Maisonneuve
  10. Transportation and Trade Interactions: A Trade Facilitation Perspective By Jerónimo Carballo; Georg Schaur; Christian Volpe Martincus
  11. Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World By Ufuk Akcigit; Sina T. Ates; Giammario Impullitti
  12. Markups, Productivity and the Financial Capability of Firms By Carlo Altomonte; Domenico Favoino; Tommaso Sonno
  13. On the Drivers of Global Grain Price Volatility : an empirical investigation By Fabio G., Santeramo; Emilia, Lamonaca
  14. The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe By Florian Nagler; Giorgio Ottonello
  15. Belt and Road Transport Corridors: Barriers and Investments By Lobyrev, Vitaly; Tikhomirov, Andrey; Tsukarev, Taras; Vinokurov, Evgeny
  16. Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Growth in Pakistan: The ARDL Approach By Nilofer, Nilofer; Qayyum, Abdul
  17. Skill premium divergence: the roles of trade, capital and demographics By Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho; Julian P. Daz
  18. Competition and the welfare gains from transportation infrastructure: evidence from the golden quadrilateral of India By Jose Asturias; Manuel García-Santana; Roberto Ramos
  19. Exchange Rate and External Trade Flows: Empirical Evidence of J-Curve Effect in Ghana By Kwame Akosah, Nana; Omane-Adjepong, Maurice
  20. Does Proximity to Foreign Invested Firms Stimulate Productivity Growth of Domestic Firms? Firmlevel Evidence from Vietnam By Stephan Kyburz, Huong Quynh Nguyen

  1. By: Yan Zhang
    Abstract: This paper uses customs transaction data covering all Chinese exporters and the World Bank's antidumping database to investigate how they responded to Latin-American and Caribbean (LAC) antidumping measures during 2000-2012 period. The paper uses the difference-in-differences identification strategy, and finds a substantial trade-dampening effect of these measures at the product level which operates through the intensive margin (i.e., a decrease in export volume per exporter) rather than the extensive margin (i.e., a decrease in the number of exporters) on average. Although we do not find a significant extensive margin effect, we still observe a positive number of exporters exited the LAC market after antidumping measures, specifically, less productive firms and trade intermediaries are more likely to exit the market. The pattern of Chinese exporters exiting the protected market was the same in ARG, BRA, MEX and COL. The antidumping measures taken by different countries had different impacts on Chinese exporters. MEX and BRA antidumping measures not only had an intensive margin but also an extensive margin effect on Chinese exports. ARG antidumping measures only had an intensive margin effect. COL antidumping measures had no effect. The paper also finds that MEX antidumping measures caused a significant increase in the export prices of the affected Chinese products, but no significant increase in the export prices for the other three countries. The paper does not find any shift in the destinations of the affected Chinese exports.
    Keywords: Antidumping, Export Performance, Exporting Firm, Impact evaluation, Productivity Level, Firm performance, Bilateral trade, Manufacturing Exports, Non-tariff Barriers, Export Market, International Trade, Latin America, The Caribbean, Antidumping, China-LAC
    JEL: L25 F14 D22 F13
    Date: 2017–03
  2. By: Van Pham (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney); Mauro Caselli (School of International Studies, University of Trento); Alan Woodland (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW Sydney)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on an unexamined area of trade, the behaviour of heterogeneous intermediate suppliers facing final producers of different ability and pursuing different strategies. We develop a theoretical model to analyse the choice of an intermediate supplier between selling to domestic producers, selling to multinational producers and/or exporting to foreign producers. The model’s predictions are: (i) sufficiently productive firms self-select into supplying to multinationals or exporting, while the most productive firms pursue both strategies, and (ii) the order of preferred strategies between supplying to multinationals and exporting depends on foreign direct investment inflows and export set-up costs. The paper tests these theoretical predictions using firm-level data from 29 European and Central Asian countries in 2002 and 2005. The empirical analysis confirms our model’s predictions. Moreover, it suggests that multinational suppliers are more likely to have higher required levels of ex-ante labour productivity than exporters, implying that exporting is easier and a more popular choice for firms.
    Keywords: Firm heterogeneity, intermediate suppliers, multinational suppliers, exporters, productivity, FDI
    JEL: F12 F14 F23 L11 L23 L25
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Miao, Zhuang; Wu, Xiaokang; Yu, Jinping
    Abstract: The importing country usually imposes heterogeneous import tariff rates based on the national origins of the products. Reducing the tariff rates on the products from one origin country not only increases the import flows from this country, but also decreases the import flows from the other trade partners of the importing country. (Direct and relative effects of the import tariff) This paper constructs a variation of the conventional gravity model to analyze the direct and relative effects of the import tariff on international trade flows at the industrial level. Based on our theoretical framework, we compute a new indicator to measure the relative effect and estimate both effects using the Chinese industrial level data. Our empirical findings are consistent with our theoretical predictions: (i) if the tariff rates are reduced towards one origin country, the importing country will import more from this country but reduce the imports from the other origins; (ii) the relative effect is more effective at the industry or country where the importing penetration ratio is relatively high; and (iii) omission of the import penetration ratio will lead to the underestimation of the effects of the multilateral resistance terms on trade performances. Our research contributes to the existing literature by introducing a manipulable method to compute the direct and relative effects of the trade cost at the industrial level, which takes the heterogeneity among industries and countries into account.
    Keywords: International trade, Gravity equation, Industrial heterogeneity, China
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2018–05–15
  4. By: Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)
    Abstract: The US imposed US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in March 2018. An estimate of the economic impact of tariff hikes made using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, incorporating a dynamic capital formation mechanism, indicates that US import tariffs could protect the relevant US sectors but would have a negative impact on the US economy at the macro level. This key policy finding could not be attributed to the conventional framework of fixed labor in a CGE model. Also, a sensitivity analysis using a CGE model indicates that international capital movements would differentiate the impact of tariff hikes among countries. Trade deficits themselves would not necessarily be of much concern given the somewhat compensatory benefits of international capital inflows. On the other hand, possible capital outflows could exaggerate the adverse effects of tariff hikes. It is estimated here that for an import tariff hike of one percentage point worldwide, global trade would decrease by around 1.7 per cent and global GDP would decrease by around 0.2 per cent. It is of concern that emergent protectionism would reduce the growth of both global trade and the global economy.
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: Yi-Fan Chen (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); Wen-Tai Hsu (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Shin-Kun Peng (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Economics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan)
    Abstract: We study a trade model with monopolistic competition a la Melitz (2003) that is standard except that firm heterogeneity is endogenously determined by firms investing to enhance their productivities. We show that the equilibrium productivity and firm-size distributions exhibit power-law tails under rather general conditions on demand and technology. In particular, the emergence of the power laws is essentially independent of the underlying primitive heterogeneity among firms. We explore the welfare implication of productivity investment, and find that it results in a higher welfare gains from trade than the Melitz-Pareto framework due to productivity investment. Our quantitative analysis shows that, conditional on the same trade elasticity and values of the common parameters, our model yields 36% higher welfare gains from trade than Melitz-Pareto and the margin due to productivity investment alone contributes 31% of the welfare gains.
    Keywords: : Productivity investment, power law, regular variation, welfare gains from trade, firm heterogeneity.
    JEL: F12 F13 F41
    Date: 2018–04
  6. By: Natalie Chen; Dennis Novy
    Abstract: How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this framework to the effect of currency unions on international trade. While we estimate that currency unions are associated with a trade increase of around 38 percent on average, we find substantial underlying heterogeneity. Consistent with the predictions of our framework, we find effects around three times as strong for country pairs associated with small import shares, and a zero effect for large import shares. Our results imply that conventional homogeneous currency union estimates do not provide helpful guidance for countries considering to join a currency union. Instead, countries need to take into account the distribution of their trade shares to assess the impact of trade costs.
    Keywords: currency unions, Euro, gravity, heterogeneity, trade costs, trade elasticity, translog
    JEL: F14 F15 F33
    Date: 2018–06
  7. By: Dorothee Flaig; David Haugh; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Dorothée Rouzet; Frank van Tongeren
    Abstract: Global trade imbalances narrowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. They have remained at a lower level but are still of concern to policy makers because of the risks they pose to individual economies, as well as globally. However, the ultimate causes of these imbalances are not fully clear. Current account positions reflect the gap between national saving and investment, which are in turn affected by policy distortions, including in trade policy. Simulations of the OECD’s METRO model show liberalisation of existing trade distortions would modestly narrow aggregate trade imbalances in the medium term for some countries. Reducing tariffs, non-tariff measures and the combined market access and productivity-enhancing effects of pro-competitive measures in services all have some rebalancing potential. Liberalisation would also offer economically significant income gains for all countries. By contrast, narrowing trade imbalances using trade restrictions would come at disproportionately high economic costs for all countries.
    Keywords: balance of payments, bilateral trade balance, current account, efficiency, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, global imbalances, investment, non-tariff measures, productivity, savings, services trade, tariffs, trade imbalance, trade liberalisation, trade policy, trade restrictions, welfare
    JEL: C68 F13 F17 F32
    Date: 2018–06–11
  8. By: Stark, Oded; Zawojska, Ewa; Kohler, Wilhelm; Szczygielski, Krzysztof
    Abstract: Acknowledging individuals' distaste for low relative income renders trade less appealing when trade is viewed as a technology that integrates economies by merging separate social spheres into one. We define a "trembling trade" as a situation in which gains from trade are overtaken by losses of relative income, with the result that global social welfare is reduced. A constructive example reveals that a "trembling trade" can arise even when trade is doubly gainful in that it increases the income of every individual and narrows the income gap between the trading populations.
    Keywords: Gains from trade,Increase of incomes,Decrease of income gap,Integration,Change of social space,Low relative income,Social welfare
    JEL: D31 D63 R12
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Christian Daude; Christine de la Maisonneuve
    Abstract: Global trade imbalances narrowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. They have remained at a lower level but are still of concern to policy makers because of the risks they pose to individual economies, as well as globally. However, the ultimate causes of these imbalances are not fully clear. Current account positions reflect the gap between national saving and investment, which are in turn affected by policy distortions, including in trade policy. Simulations of the OECD’s METRO model show liberalisation of existing trade distortions would modestly narrow aggregate trade imbalances in the medium term for some countries. Reducing tariffs, non-tariff measures and the combined market access and productivity-enhancing effects of pro-competitive measures in services all have some rebalancing potential. Liberalisation would also offer economically significant income gains for all countries. By contrast, narrowing trade imbalances using trade restrictions would come at disproportionately high economic costs for all countries.
    Keywords: deregulation, firm level data, manufacturing firm’s export, network industries
    JEL: C23 F1 L5 L8
    Date: 2018–06–11
  10. By: Jerónimo Carballo; Georg Schaur; Christian Volpe Martincus
    Abstract: Trade facilitation policies intend to simplify administrative processes and accelerate the handling of shipments across borders. Recent research shows that these policies have substantial effects on trade flows. In this chapter, we discuss what the existing evidence for trade implies for the provision of transportation services. In addition, we make use of a particular policy change, an upgrade to a new transit trade regime, to illustrate the many direct and indirect linkages between trade facilitation and transportation. These multiple connections imply that a well-functioning transportation sector is important to realize the full potential of trade facilitation policies. Our conceptual and empirical analyses show that, despite an increase in demand for transportation services, the effect of trade facilitation on freight rates and the underlying transportation sector is far from obvious. This calls for future research to examine equilibrium adjustment channels to trade facilitation policies in the transportation sector.
    Keywords: Transport Costs, Trade Policy, Export Performance, Customs Administration, Freight, Trading costs, Exporting Firm, Latin America, freight, customs, Trade Interactions
    JEL: F14 F13 F10
    Date: 2017–03
  11. By: Ufuk Akcigit; Sina T. Ates; Giammario Impullitti
    Abstract: How do import tariffs and R&D subsidies help domestic firms compete globally? How do these policies affect aggregate growth and economic welfare? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic general equilibrium growth model where firm innovation endogenously determines the dynamics of technology, market leadership, and trade flows, in a world with two large open economies at different stages of development. Firms’ R&D decisions are driven by (i) the defensive innovation motive, (ii) the expansionary innovation motive, and (iii) technology spillovers. The theoretical investigation illustrates that, statically, globalization (defined as reduced trade barriers) has ambiguous effects on welfare, while, dynamically, intensified globalization boosts domestic innovation through induced international competition. Accounting for transitional dynamics, we use our model for policy evaluation and compute optimal policies over different time horizons. The model suggests that the introduction of the Research and Experimentation Tax Credit in 1981 proves to be an effective policy response to foreign competition, generating substantial welfare gains in the long run. A counterfactual exercise shows that increasing tariffs as an alternative policy response improves domestic welfare only when the policymaker cares about the very short run, and only when introduced unilaterally. Tariffs generate large welfare losses in the medium and long run, or when there is retaliation by the foreign economy. Protectionist measures generate large dynamic losses by distorting the impact of openness on innovation incentives and productivity growth. Finally, our model predicts that a more globalized world entails less government intervention, thanks to innovation-stimulating effects of intensified international competition.
    Keywords: Economic growth ; Short- and long-run gains from globalization ; Foreign technological catching-up ; Innovation policy ; Trade policy ; Competition
    JEL: F13 F43 O40
    Date: 2018–06–15
  12. By: Carlo Altomonte; Domenico Favoino; Tommaso Sonno
    Abstract: We extend a framework of monopolistically competitive firms heterogeneous in productivity and with endogenous markups (as in Melitz and Ottaviano, 2008) to incorporate the presence of financial frictions. Before producing, firms need to obtain a loan necessary to cover part of production costs, for which they have to pledge collateral in the form of tangible assets. In addition to productivity, firms are also heterogeneous in their financial capability: some firms have access to collateral at lower costs. As a result, financial capability and collateral requirements enter together with productivity in the expression of the equilibrium firm-level markup. At the aggregate level, the model shows that tighter credit constraints in the form of higher collateral requirements mitigate the pro-competitive effect of trade. We validate our theoretical results capitalizing on a representative sample of manufacturing firms surveyed across a subset of European countries during the financial crisis. Guided by theory, we estimate for each firm financial capability, TFP and markups. We then employ those estimates to structurally retrieve from the model a firm-specific measure of collateral requirements (a proxy of credit constraint), and test our main propositions.
    Keywords: Credit constraints, heterogeneous rms, markups, international trade
    JEL: F10 F14 G32
  13. By: Fabio G., Santeramo; Emilia, Lamonaca
    Abstract: A vast number of studies examined the determinants of price volatility in agricultural markets. It is clear that the joint influence of several causes may generate market instability, but the partial contribution of different factors is still debated. We investigate how market-based drivers influence the global price volatility of three major grains: wheat, corn, barley. We adopt a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations model, in order to investigate potential common patterns and to control for the influence of external drivers. We compare inter-annual, intra-annual, and global volatility, to conclude on short-run and long-run dynamics of markets instability. We quantify the negative relationship linking (temporal) arbitrage and grain price volatility and conclude on the effects of supply movements on price volatility.
    Keywords: Volatility; Grain; Price; SUREG; Arbitrage
    JEL: Q02 Q11 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Florian Nagler; Giorgio Ottonello
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of globalization on electoral outcomes in fifteenWestern European countries, over 1988-2007. We employ both official election results at the district level and individual-level voting data, combined with party ideology scores from the ComparativeManifesto Project. We compute a region-specific measure of exposure to Chinese imports, based on the historical industry specialization of each region. To identify the causal impact of the import shock, we instrument imports to Europe using Chinese imports to the United States. At the district level, a stronger import shock leads to: (1) an increase in support for nationalist parties; (2) a general shift to the right in the electorate; and (3) an increase in support for radical right parties. These results are confirmed by the analysis of individual-level vote choices. In addition, we find evidence that voters respond to the shock in a sociotropic way.
    Keywords: Globalization; Nationalism; Radical Right; Economic Vote
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Lobyrev, Vitaly; Tikhomirov, Andrey; Tsukarev, Taras; Vinokurov, Evgeny
    Abstract: The report presents an analysis of the impact that international freight traffic barriers have on logistics, transit potential, and development of transport corridors traversing EAEU member states. Restrictions discussed in this report include infrastructural (transport and logistical infrastructure), border/customs-related, and administrative/legal barriers. The authors also provide the recommendations regarding removal of barriers that hamper international freight traffic along the China-EAEU-EU axis.
    Keywords: Transport corridors, Belt and Road Initiative, transport infrastructure, non-tariff barriers, freight traffic, EAEU, China, EU
    JEL: F15 R41 R42
    Date: 2018–05–10
  16. By: Nilofer, Nilofer; Qayyum, Abdul
    Abstract: Investment is vital ingredients of growth in an economy. Saving contributes to investment which contributes to physical and human capital formation both of which promote growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country. This study aims at determining the role of the three types of investment i.e., public, private and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the growth of Pakistan economy with a special focus on the contribution of FDI in GDP growth of the Pakistan. Cointegration analysis of time series data was used to analyze model. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been used to analyze the long run relationship between GDP growth, investment and government expenditure for Pakistan using data (1970-2015). The results indicate that while public and private investment and lending rate have a positive impact on growth, public consumption and FDI decelerate GDP growth. Also the investor confidence should be bolstered by improving the law and order and security situation of the country and introducing investment friendly policies to further harness the positive impact of investment on growth.
    Keywords: Investment, FDI, Growth, Cointegration, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, Bounds Testing, Pakistan
    JEL: E22 O4
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho; Julian P. Daz
    Abstract: We construct an applied general equilibrium model to account for diverging patterns of the skill premium. Our framework assesses the roles of various factors that a ect the demand and supply of skilled and unskilled labor|shifts in the skill composition of the labor supply, changes in the terms of trade and the complementarity between skilled labor and equipment capital in production. We nd that increases in the relative skilled labor supply due to demographic changes lead to a decline in the skill premium, while equipment capital deepening raises the relative demand for skilled labor which in turn increases the skill premium. In addition, terms of trade changes lead to the reallocation of resources towards sectors in which countries enjoy comparative advantages. Since our model incorporates multiple factors simultaneously, it can generate either rising or falling skill premium paths. When we parametrize the model to the Baltic states|countries that were similar along many dimensions at the onset of their transition from centrally-planned to market-oriented economies|our model can closely account for the diverging patterns of skill premia for the period between 1995 and 2008.
    Keywords: skill premium, international trade, capital-skill complementarity, demographic change, Baltic state
    JEL: E25 J24 J31
  18. By: Jose Asturias (Georgetown University Qatar); Manuel García-Santana (UPF, Barcelona GSE and CEPR); Roberto Ramos (Banco de España)
    Abstract: A significant amount of resources is spent every year on the improvement of transportation infrastructure in developing countries. In this paper, we investigate the effects of one such large project, the Golden Quadrilateral in India. We do so using a model of internal trade with variable markups. In contrast to the previous literature, our model incorporates several channels through which transportation infrastructure affects welfare. In particular, the model accounts for gains stemming from improvements in the allocative efficiency of the economy. We calibrate the model to the Indian manufacturing sector and find real income gains of 2.7%. We also find that allocative efficiency accounts for 7.4% of these gains. The importance of allocative efficiency varies greatly across states, and can account for up to 18% of the overall gains in some states. The remaining welfare gains are accounted for by changes in labor income, productive efficiency, and average markups that affect states’ terms of trade.
    Keywords: transportation infrastructure, internal trade, welfare, allocative efficiency
    JEL: F12 F14 O40
    Date: 2018–06
  19. By: Kwame Akosah, Nana; Omane-Adjepong, Maurice
    Abstract: Ghana’s external trade has remained in perpetual deficits over the three decades alongside depreciating domestic currency. This paper therefore examines the effect of real exchange rate (RER) movements on Ghana’s external trade performance, using a battery of times series models. The study particularly assesses the validity of Marshall-Lerner Condition, the J-Curve and Kulkarni Hypotheses in the case of Ghana. The empirical analysis reveals inelastic responses of both export and import demand to changes in RER. We found a steady long run link between RER movements and Ghana’s trade balance. However, the impact of RER on Ghana’s trade balance was found to be asymmetric. Periods of minimal real depreciation (a “tranquil” regime) lend support to Marshall-Lerner Condition (MLC), the J-Curve theory and Kulkarni Hypothesis in the context of Ghana. In contrast, we found less visible evidence of J-curve for periods of excessive real depreciation (an “intemperate” regime). It is therefore critical to sustain macroeconomic stability in order to engender low and stable inflation and stable foreign exchange rates. This however requires the adoption of appropriate and coordinated monetary and fiscal policies.
    Keywords: J-Curve Hypothesis; Kulkarni Hypothesis; Marshall-Lerner Condition; Trade Balance.
    JEL: F13 F14 F31
    Date: 2017–03
  20. By: Stephan Kyburz, Huong Quynh Nguyen
    Abstract: Inward foreign direct investment (FDI) is regarded as a key engine of industrial growth and technological progress, especially in emerging markets. Regarding the relevance of geographic proximity between foreign and domestic firms for FDI spillover effects, there is yet little clear evidence, owing to a lack of precise location specific firm-level data. This paper presents the so far spatially most detailed analysis of FDI spillover effects by geo-referencing the census of Vietnamese enterprises for the period 2005 to 2010, allowing us to measure the changing presence of foreign invested firms around each domestic firm. We apply a first-differenced two-stageleast- squares estimator to identify spillover effects from proximate FDI exposure on TFP growth of domestic manufacturing firms. We find positive and significant within-industry (horizontal) spillover effects within radii of 2 to 10 km, that decay beyond. Importantly, in particular small and medium enterprises (SMEs) gain from foreign firms in their vicinity. Furthermore, vertical spillovers through forward and backward linkages to other manufacturing firms are localized, while vertical spillovers from foreign firms in the service sector are less geographically restricted.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, spillover effects, geographic proximity, horizontal and vertical linkages
    JEL: D22 D24 F23 O12 O14 O33 R11 R32
    Date: 2017–10

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