nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2018‒05‒21
29 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. The Impact of ASEAN’S FTAs with China, Japan, Korea and Australia-New Zealand: An Analysis in GTAP Framework By Nugraheni, Reninta Dewi; Widodo, Tri
  2. Firm-to-firm Connections in Colombian Imports By Andrew B. Bernard; Esther A. Bøler; Swati Dhingra
  3. Temporary exports and characteristics of destination countries: First evidence from German transaction data By Wagner, Joachim
  4. Labor union and firm fs relocation: A general oligopolistic equilibrium model analysis By Hosaki Sano
  5. Escaping Import Competition and Downstream Tariffs By Ana Cecília Fieler; Ann Harrison
  6. The endogenous decisions of unionization and international trade: A general oligopolistic equilibrium model analysis By Hosaki Sano
  7. Getting the Facts Right on Born Globals By Ferguson, Shon; Henrekson, Magnus; Johannesson, Louise
  8. Heterogeneous Foreign Direct Investment and Local Innovation in Italian Provinces By Andrea Ascani; Pierre-Alexandre Balland
  9. Estimating Ad Valorem Equivalents of Non-Tariff Measures: Combining Price-Based and Quantity-Based Approaches By Olivier Cadot; Julien Gourdon; Frank van Tongeren
  10. The Russian Food Embargo, its Impact on Food Imports, and the Role of Third Countries in Violating the Embargo (Re-Export) By Firanchuk, Alexander
  11. Networks and Trade By Andrew B. Bernard; Andreas Moxnes
  12. On the heterogeneous effects of market-access barriers: Evidence from small and large Peruvian exporters By Marco Fugazza; Marcelo Olarreaga; Cristian Ugarte
  13. Firm export diversification and change in workforce composition By Sarah Guillou; Tania Treibich
  14. The Impact of Exports on Innovation: Theory and Evidence By Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Matthieu Lequien, Marc J. Melitz
  15. Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network By Andrea Fracasso; Massimo Riccabonii; Martina Sartori; Stefano Schiavo
  16. The deterrence effect of immigration enforcement in transit countries: Evidence from Central American deportees By Martínez Flores, Fernanda
  17. Public Health and Economic Implications of the United Kingdom Exiting the EU and the Single Market By Maignen, F.; Berdud, M.; Hampson, G.; Lorgelly, P.
  18. Commodity Structure of Imports of the Russian Federation During the Period of the Foreign Trade Embargo By Mikhailova, Tatiana; Aksyuk, Svetlana
  19. Things have changed (or Have they ?) Tariff protection and environmental concerns in the WTO By Petros C. Mavroidis; Damien J. Neveny
  21. G-RDEM: A GTAP-based recursive dynamic CGE model for long-term baseline generation and analysis By Wolfgang Britz; Roberto Roson
  22. How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals By Frankel, Jeffrey
  23. Will the African Free Trade Agreement Succeed? By Rim Berahab; Uri Dadush
  24. Determinants of foreign direct investment inflow in real estate sector By Rita Yi Man Li; Beiqi Tang
  25. Investment subsidies and regional welfare: A dynamic framework By Korzhenevych, Artem; Bröcker, Johannes
  26. The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States By Anna Maria Mayda; Giovanni Peri; Walter Steingress
  27. Non-Linearities in International Prices By Inkoo Lee; Sang Soo Park; Marios Zachariadis
  28. Explaining Trade Flows in Renewable Energy Products: The Role of Technological Development By Mai Miyamoto; Kenji Takeuchi
  29. 'Globesity'? The effects of globalization on obesity and caloric intake By Costa-i-Font, Joan; Mas, Núria

  1. By: Nugraheni, Reninta Dewi; Widodo, Tri
    Abstract: ASEAN is one of dynamic and fast growing economic regionalism. ASEAN has shown rapid growth in trade liberalization with the free trade agreement (FTA), established with China Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of the free trade agreement between ASEAN-China (ACFTA), ASEAN-Korea (AKFTA), ASEAN-Japan (AJCEP), ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand (AANZFTA). The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9 are applied with the partial and full liberalization scenarios. The GTAP simulations results shows that ACFTA provides a greater positive impact than the other FTAs for each region. In the long run, the welfare of each region has increased, the trade balance has decreased, the volume of exports and imports has increased.
    Keywords: ASEAN, Free Trade Agreement, Tariff Liberalisation, GTAP Simulations
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2018–03–11
  2. By: Andrew B. Bernard; Esther A. Bøler; Swati Dhingra
    Abstract: The vast majority of world trade flows is between firms. Only recently has research in international trade started to emphasize the importance of the connections between exporters and importers both in aggregate trade flows and in the negative relationship between trade and geographic distance. This chapter documents the role of firm-to-firm connections in trade flows and the formation and duration of these importer-exporter relationships. Using customs data from Colombia for 1995-2014, we are able to identify both the Colombian importing firm and the foreign exporter in every Colombian import and export transaction. We document both the nature of these bilateral trading relationships and their evolution over time.
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Wagner, Joachim
    Abstract: This paper uses information on all export transactions of goods by German firms with countries outside the European Union from 2009 to 2014 to document for the first time the patterns of export participation at the firm-good-destination level over time and to investigate the link between the duration of export patterns and characteristics of destination countries. It turns out that only some seven percent of all combinations were recorded in each year while more than half of all patterns are only observed once. In line with theoretical hypotheses the likelihood of permanent trade patterns increases within a firm with proximity and market size of destination countries.
    Keywords: temporary exports,permanent exports,transaction level data,Germany
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Hosaki Sano (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This paper presents a multi-sector general oligopolistic equilibrium trade model in which unionized and nonunionized sectors interact. We investigate how a country fs labor union structure affects firm fs relocation. Firstly, we analyze the case of international trade between unionized country and non-unionized country. As a result, non-unionized country should lower the unemployment benefit to attract firms. Secondly, we analyze the case of international trade between partial unionized country and non-unionized country. When the proportion of unionized sector is low, welfares of countries are equal, otherwise, unionized country fs welfare is lower than non-unionized. Comparing non relocation case, difference of welfare is larger.
    Keywords: labor union, international trade, general oligopolistic equilibrium
    JEL: F15 F16 L13
    Date: 2018–05
  5. By: Ana Cecília Fieler; Ann Harrison
    Abstract: We propose and provide evidence for a new source of gains from trade: Firms invest in product differentiation to escape import competition. In the data and in the model, these investments are associated with increases in measured productivity, introduction of new goods, and shifts to skill-intensive sectors. Investment in differentiation downstream leads upstream firms to also invest in differentiation. For China, these "downstream tariff" reductions lead to big increases in measured productivity for upstream suppliers. The effect on measured productivity is larger for upstream than for downstream firms, and we explain this difference theoretically through heterogeneous changes in markups.
    JEL: F12 F13 F14
    Date: 2018–04
  6. By: Hosaki Sano (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This paper presents a multi-sector general oligopolistic equilibrium trade model in which unionized and non-unionized sectors interact. In our model, the proportion of unionized sectors to all sectors is endogenously determined. We show that the proportion of unionized sectors depends on exogenous parameters such as productivity, population, the number of firms, union costs, and globalization. The increase in population raises the proportion of unionized sectors and lowers the competitive wage, whereas the increase in the number of firms and in the union cost lowers the proportion of unionized sectors and raises the competitive wage. We also show that trade openness between symmetric countries raises the competitive wage and lowers the proportion of unionized sectors, whereas the effect on welfare is ambiguous.
    Keywords: labor union, international trade, general oligopolistic equilibrium
    JEL: F15 F16 L13
    Date: 2018–05
  7. By: Ferguson, Shon (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Johannesson, Louise (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: Policymakers in several countries have recently taken steps to promote the rapid export expansion of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The goal of these policies has been to create successful export-intensive firms, which are often referred to as born globals. These measures are motivated by studies claiming that born global firms are disproportionately important for job creation and economic growth. Using detailed register data on the universe of Swedish manufacturing firms born between 2001 and 2008, we find that born globals are a very small group of firms whose long-run size and growth do not outperform other exporting firms. Thus, the notion that born globals are superior to firms that follow a more gradual internationalization process, a conclusion largely based on case studies and surveys, does not withstand scrutiny. Policymakers must therefore be aware that encouraging more born globals need not necessarily lead to large benefits for the overall economy, especially in terms of employment.
    Keywords: Born globals; Exporting; Firm growth; Globalization; Job creation
    JEL: F14 F23 L25 M13
    Date: 2018–05–03
  8. By: Andrea Ascani; Pierre-Alexandre Balland
    Abstract: Countries and regions all over the world compete to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a way to access knowledge, technology, and boost economic development. Although the literature shows a positive impact of FDI on local economies, little is known about (1) the impact on innovation of neighbouring regions and the type of FDI that generates the strongest learning effects. To fill this gap, this article investigates the relationship between FDI and the innovation capacity of Italian provinces (NUTS3). In order to capture the heterogeneity of FDI in terms of knowledge inputs, we apply the Pavitt categorisation of manufacturing sectors to inward FDI within Italian provinces, thus accounting for the nature and sources of knowledge in different sectors where foreign multinationals are active. Our results suggest that only some specific typologies of inward FDI, such as that in "Science based" sectors and to a lesser extent in "Specialised supplier" activities, benefit local economies. Nevertheless, other types of inward FDI can produce possible negative outcomes in terms of local innovation. We detect only weak evidence on the spatial implications of inward FDI.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, spillovers, Pavitt taxonomy, FDI heterogeneity
    JEL: O3 F23 R11
    Date: 2018–05
  9. By: Olivier Cadot (University of Lausanne); Julien Gourdon (OECD); Frank van Tongeren (OECD)
    Abstract: A novel econometric method is used to estimate trade effects of non-tariff measures (NTMs) for roughly 5 000 traded goods and 80 countries. It explicitly distinguishes several types of measures and ascertains their distinct effects on trade volumes and prices. The latter feature allows disentangling trade-cost effects associated with non-tariff measures from possible demand-enhancing effects that come from reducing information asymmetries and strengthening consumer confidence in imported products. The volume-based estimates yield information on how NTMs ultimately affect trade: the trade cost associated with NTMs, as captured by the ad valorem estimates, often reduces trade volumes, as expected, but not always. In a number of cases, in particular in the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) area, trade is found to expand, even though trade costs rise. This is likely explained by closer regulatory environments between the countries examined, but the trade-enhancing features of such measures merit further study.
    Keywords: Non-tariff measures, price gaps, regulation
    JEL: F13 F15 L51
    Date: 2018–05–16
  10. By: Firanchuk, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The task of this work is to formulate theoretical hypotheses about the factors influencing the probability of re-export occurrence, the provision of descriptive statistics that may be indicative of the existence of such re-exports, and the construction of an econometric model for evaluating the proposed theoretical hypotheses. In addition, the analysis of trade statistics of Russia, the main changes and the most likely cases of illegal re-export of sanctions goods were carried out. To analyze the completeness of the implementation of the embargo, a comparison is made between the EU monthly data on exports and the data of the FCS of Russia on imports. The authors proposed a method for identifying countries involved in re-export activity and an algorithm for identifying specific commodity positions and periods when re-exports were likely. The idea of ??this method is to compare the physical (weight) volumes and prices of EU goods to a third country and the same goods (commodity groups) from that third country to Russia. It was shown that mainly re-exports pass through the territories of Belarus and the Balkan countries (Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina), which is consistent with the results using annual trade data, [1]. Also, the distribution of the value of the identified re-exports in time and the price increase, probably caused by it, are presented. Based on these data, the losses of importing firms are estimated as an increase in the price of re-export goods, which is due to the ban on direct supplies.
    Date: 2018–04
  11. By: Andrew B. Bernard; Andreas Moxnes
    Abstract: Trade occurs between firms both across borders and within countries, and the vast majority of trade transactions includes at least one large firm with many trading partners. This paper reviews the literature on firm-to-firm connections in trade. A growing body of evidence coming from domestic and international transaction data has established empirical regularities which have inspired the development of new theories emphasizing firm heterogeneity among both buyers and suppliers in production networks. Theoretical work has considered both static and dynamic matching environments in a framework of many-to-many matching. The literature on trade and production networks is at an early stage, and there are a large number of unanswered empirical and theoretical questions.
    JEL: F10 F12 F14 L11 L21
    Date: 2018–04
  12. By: Marco Fugazza; Marcelo Olarreaga; Cristian Ugarte
    Abstract: We examine the extent to which market-access barriers in Latin America affect small and large Peruvian exporters to the region. Using a dataset that allows us to distinguish between tariffs and different types of non-tariff measures introduced by Latin American countries between 2000 and 2014, we find that large Peruvian exporters benefit rather than lose from the introduction of tariffs and non-tariff measures in their destination markets. Their export value increases and the probability that they exit the export sector decreases as they face new market-access barriers abroad. The reverse is true for small exporters, which are hurt by more stringent market-access barriers.
    Keywords: Non-Tariff Measures, Tariffs, Firm heterogeneity.
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2018–05–10
  13. By: Sarah Guillou (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Tania Treibich (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to show that part of the fixed cost of firms’ trade expansion is due to the acquisition of new internal capabilities (e.g. technology, production processes or skills), which imply a costly change in the firm’s internal labor organisation. We investigate the relationship between a firm’s structure of labor, in terms of relative number of managers, and the scope of its export portfolio, in terms of product-destination varieties. The empirical analysis is based on a matched employer- employee dataset covering the population of French firms from tradable sectors over the period 2009-2014. Our analysis suggests that market expansion, and in particular export diversification, is associated with a change in the firm’s workforce composition, namely an increase in the number of managerial layers and in the ratio of managers. We show how these results are consistent with a simple model where the complexity of a firm’s operations increases in the number of product-destination couples exported, and where managers’ role is to address the unsolved problems arising from such increased complexity of operations
    Keywords: Export diversification; Managers; Occupations; Employer -employee data
    JEL: F16 E24 C14 D2
    Date: 2017–10
  14. By: Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Matthieu Lequien, Marc J. Melitz
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of export shocks on innovation. On the one hand a positive shock increases market size and therefore innovation incentives for all firms. On the other hand it increases competition as more firms enter the export market. This in turn reduces profits and therefore innovation incentives particularly for firms with low productivity. Overall the positive impact of the export shock on innovation is magnified for high productivity firms, whereas it may negatively affect innovation in low productivity firms. We test this prediction with patent, customs and production data covering all French manufacturing firms. To address potential endogeneity issues, we construct firm-level export proxies which respond to aggregate conditions in a firm's export destinations but are exogenous to firm-level decisions. We show that patenting robustly increases more with export demand for initially more productive firms. This effect is reversed for the least productive firms as the negative competition effect dominates.
    Keywords: Innovation, trade, export, demand shocks, patents
    JEL: D21 F13 F14 F41 O30 O47
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Andrea Fracasso (Department of Economics [Università di Trento]); Massimo Riccabonii (School for advanced studies Lucca); Martina Sartori; Stefano Schiavo (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation –a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to “imported water stress” as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.
    Keywords: Virtual water trade; Complex networks; Fitness model; Agricultural production; Preferential attachment; Gravity model; Water stress
    JEL: F14 F18 Q25 Q56
    Date: 2017–12
  16. By: Martínez Flores, Fernanda
    Abstract: Immigration enforcement cooperation between final destination and transit countries has increased in the last decades. However, the question whether these measures are successful in deterring undocumented migrants has not been previously explored by the empirical literature. This paper examines whether the Southern Border Plan, an immigration enforcement program implemented by the Mexican government in 2014, has curbed intentions of unauthorized migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to migrate to the United States. Combining surveys from Central American and Mexican deportees and using a DiD approach, I find that increased enforcement in Mexico decreases the likelihood of attempting repeated unauthorized crossings. The results indicate that in the short-run the cooperation between destination and transit countries could be effective in deterring undocumented migrants.
    Keywords: immigration enforcement,deportees,Central American migrants,unauthorized,undocumented,remigration,transit countries
    JEL: F22 K42 O15
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Maignen, F.; Berdud, M.; Hampson, G.; Lorgelly, P.
    Abstract: This report explores the consequences of the exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on public health in the UK and in the EU. It also provides an estimate of the economic impact for pharmaceutical companies. The impact of Brexit will be highly dependent on the nature of any agreement resulting from the negotiations between the UK and the remaining countries of the EU, and the extent that the UK is involved in future EU public health activities. As such, the sensitivity of the various public health and economic impacts is assessed according to a number of different possible combinations of trade and regulatory agreements. We find that the public health implications of Brexit will become more severe as public health cooperation and trade relationships lessen between the EU and the UK. Importantly, the public health impacts may not just occur in the UK, but may also be significant in the remaining countries of the EU and the European Economic Area. This report contains a summary of our results based on a series of individual analyses. Detailed methods and results for each of the individual analyses presented in the [Technical Annex]( Technical%20Annex%20-%20final.pdf).
    JEL: I1
    Date: 2017–12–01
  18. By: Mikhailova, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Aksyuk, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The purpose of this research is to study the dynamics of import flows in Russia in 2013-2015, using the tools of regression models. The timeframe from 2013 to 2015 includes events destabilizing the dynamics of imports, in particular: the political crisis in Ukraine, trade sanctions introduced in 2014, the economic recession of the Russian economy. The authors evaluate the impact of these events and measures on the commodity, country and geographical structure of the import flows to the Russian Federation. The authors use data on imports of certain goods to the regions of Russia through border points for the period from 2013 to 2015 in order to evaluate a number of econometric models linking the intensity of the commodity flow from the counterparty country to the Russian region with the characteristics of the country, region, product. We also assess the model for the disaggregated flows of imported goods from foreign countries to the regions of the Russian Federation through border checkpoints in order to assess the impact of foreign trade shocks on the routing of cargo transportation.
    Date: 2018–04
  19. By: Petros C. Mavroidis; Damien J. Neveny
    Abstract: This paper considers the APEC and proposed EGA agreements which grant tariff concession in favor of "green" goods. We find that the practical significance of the APEC agreement should not be overestimated as it involves modest tariff concessions over a subset of goods which are not heavily traded. Still, these agreements involve a paradigm shift to the extent that they use tariffs concessions negotiated on a plurilateral basis as a policy instrument to meet public policy concern, instead of making market access conditional on meeting national regulations. We model the mechanism through which these tariff preferences provide incentives to change production in favor of green goods in exporting countries and highlight the challenges that the implementation of these agreements involve.
    Keywords: WTO, APEC, EGA, Tari¤s, Terms of Trade, ex outs
    JEL: K40
    Date: 2018–04
  20. By: Eduardo Fernando Terán Yépez (University of Almeria); Luna Santos Roldán (University of Cordoba)
    Abstract: When firms plan their internationalization strategies, they have to take several decisions before initiating its international venture, being one of the most complex selecting the most appropriate export market, because it could be a decisive factor that can determine the future success or failure of a business. Selecting an export market as part of an internationalization process requires the analyses of political, economic, social, cultural and legal environments, but also to examine a wide range of public services, purchasing power and demand-related issues, as well as international trade indicators. The need to obtain information concerning the destination markets is therefore fundamental. However, this type of analysis in most cases is a difficult situation, because not all companies (specially the small ones) have enough experience to carry out this analysis on their own and/or they don´t have enough investment capacity to contract a consultancy firm to do the research for them.So, the aim of this research is to propose a tool which assists companies when facing the challenge of selecting the most appropriate market for the internationalization of their products, i.e. providing an answer to the question of how to choose an appropriate export market. The tool is divided into three stages, as it is commonly agreed in the majority literature available on the process of market selection. In each of these stages, different indicators are defined, in order to finish with a comparison of different analytic-quantitative indicators through a 7-dimensional weighted decision matrix.However, this tool can also be generalized and used by companies searching for new markets abroad, as well as consulting companies or also it will be useful for future researchers that require a procedure to evaluate the potential of countries as export destination. The validity of the tool is proven through a case study, where it can be concluded that the obtained results through the applied methodology don´t differ from reality. This research is not exempt from some limitations. First, it has to be said that the reach of the tool is restricted to a selection analysis based on external factors that are not related to the internal environment of the company. Second, the methodology was developing with some no standard indicators, so some of them would vary depending on the sector and the export product itself.
    Keywords: Appropriate Export Market, International Expansion, International Market Selection.
    JEL: F23 M31
    Date: 2018–04
  21. By: Wolfgang Britz (Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn); Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari; IEFE Bocconi University)
    Abstract: We motivate and detail the newly developed G-RDEM recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model as a tool for long-term counterfactual analysis and baseline generation from given GDP and population projections. It encompasses an AIDADS demand system with non-linear Engel curves, debt accumulation from foreign saving and introduces sector specific productivity changes, endogenous aggregate saving rates, as well as time-varying input-output coefficients. Parameters for these relationships are econometrically estimated or taken from published work. The core of the model is derived from the GTAP standard model and seamlessly incorporated into the modular and flexible CGEBox modelling platform. Accordingly, it can be applied with various other extensions such as GTAP-AEZ, GTAP-Water or a regional breakdown for Europe to 280 NUTS2 regions. G-RDEM maintains the flexible aggregation from the GTAP data base. It is open source, encoded in GAMS and can be steered by a Graphical User Interface, which also encompasses a tool to analyse results with tables, graphs and maps. Existing GDP and population projections for the Socio-Economic Pathways 1-5 can be directly incorporated for baseline construction. A comparison of the generated long-term structural composition of the economy against a simple recursive-dynamic variant, using the basic CDE demand system of the standard GTAP model, uniform productivity growth, fixed saving rates and technology parameters, and no debt accumulation shows that G-RDEM brings about much more plausible results, as well as a more realistic, internally consistent representation of the economic structure in a hypothetical future.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium models; Long-run economic scenarios; Structural change
    JEL: C68 C82 C88 D58 E17 F43 O11 O40
    Date: 2018
  22. By: Frankel, Jeffrey (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Countries that specialize in commodities have in recent years been hit by high volatility in world prices for their exports. This paper suggests four ways that commodity-exporters can make themselves less vulnerable. (1) They can use option contracts to hedge against short-term declines in the commodity price without giving up the upside, as Mexico has shown. (2) Commodity-linked bonds can hedge longer-term risk, and often have a natural ultimate counter-party in multinational corporations that depend on the commodity as an input. (3) The well-documented pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy among commodity exporters can be reduced by insulating official forecasters against optimism bias, as Chile has shown. (4) Monetary policy can be made automatically more counter-cyclical, judged by the criterion of currency appreciation in reaction to positive terms-of-trade shocks, under either of two regimes: Peggers can add the export commodity to a currency basket (CCB, for “Currency-plus-Commodity Basket†) and others can target Nominal Income instead of the CPI.
    JEL: E00 F00 G00 O00
    Date: 2017–08
  23. By: Rim Berahab; Uri Dadush
    Abstract: The recently signed African Continental Free Trade Agreement represents a countercurrent to protectionist tendencies across the Atlantic and the Pacific, and may well move the economic integration of the African continent forward. Translating the vision into action, however, will call upon signatories to undertake deeper domestic reforms and to confront specific challenges related to the agreement itself. This brief explains why the agreement is important for Africa and identifies policy implications for Africa and for third countries.
    Date: 2018–04
  24. By: Rita Yi Man Li; Beiqi Tang
    Abstract: Many of the previous research shows that ups and downs of real estate prices are affected by the foreigners' investments. Some countries such as Australia have implement relevant measures to lower the incentives of foreigners to invest in their housing sector. The objective of this paper is to examine the major determinants of FDI inflow in real estate sector in five countries, i.e. Korea, Japan, Australia, Canada and the UK via Artificial neural networks. It shall investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment inflow in real estate sector, residential property price index, gross domestic product per capita, global house price index growth rate, global housing price index, effective exchange rate, housing price to income index and natural disaster. The results show that there are different determinants in different countries. While global housing price index plays the most important role in foreign direct investment inflow in Korea, Japan and UK, Gross domestic product and house price to income ratio is the most important factor in Canada and Australia respectively.
    Keywords: Artificial Neural Network; Foreign Direct Investment Inflow
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  25. By: Korzhenevych, Artem; Bröcker, Johannes
    Abstract: Subsidising investment in lagging regions is an important regional policy instrument in many countries. Some argue that this instrument is not specific enough to concentrate the aid towards the regions that are lagging behind most, because investment subsidies benefit capital owners who might reside elsewhere, possibly in very rich places. Checking under which conditions this is true is thus highly policy relevant. The present paper studies regional investment subsidies in a multiregional neoclassical dynamic framework. We set up a model with trade in heterogeneous goods, with a perfectly integrated financial capital market and sluggish adjustment of regional capital stocks. Consumers and investors act under perfect foresight. We derive the equilibrium system, show how to solve it, and simulate actual European regional subsidies in computational applications. We find that the size of the welfare gains depends on the portfolio distribution held by the households. If households own diversified asset portfolios, we find that the supported regions gain roughly the amounts that are allocated to them in the form of investment subsidies. If they only own local capital stocks, a part of the money is lost through the drop in share prices. From the point of view of total welfare, the subsidy is not efficient. It can lead to a welfare loss for the EU as a whole and definitely leads to welfare losses in the rest of the world, from where investment ows to the supported EU regions.
    Keywords: Exporter wage premium,Heterogeneous firms,Ability differences of workers,Positive assortative matching,Trade and wage inequality
    JEL: C31 F12 F15 J31
    Date: 2018
  26. By: Anna Maria Mayda; Giovanni Peri; Walter Steingress
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the effect on housing prices of the expansion of the Vancouver SkyTrain rapid transit network during the period 2001–11. We extend the canonical residential sorting equilibrium framework to include commuting time in the household utility function. We estimate household preferences in the sorting model using confidential micro data and geographic information systems (GIS) data on the SkyTrain network. Using these preference estimates and observed data for 2001, we simulate the equilibrium effects of expanding the SkyTrain. In our counterfactual analysis, the SkyTrain expansion increases housing prices not only in neighborhoods where the expansion occurred, but also in those with access to pre-existing segments of the network. We show how these network housing price effects depend on household commuting patterns, and discuss the implications of our results for targeted taxation policies designed to capture the housing price appreciation stemming from a public transit investment.
    Keywords: International topics, Labour markets
    JEL: F22 J61
    Date: 2018
  27. By: Inkoo Lee; Sang Soo Park; Marios Zachariadis
    Abstract: We consider multiple sources of non-linearity at the same time within a structural model that accounts for previously omitted variables and allows estimation of product-level convergence rates both within and outside the band of no trade. Accounting for the role of theoretically-implied variables and their non-linear interactions in the convergence process, we find that good-level convergence rates are systematically faster as compared to convergence estimates from reduced-form models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that good-level price differentials exhibit mean-reverting behavior even within the bands of no trade, and that rates of mean-reversion within or outside the no-trade band are strongly related to goods' economics characteristics. Furthermore, while implied trade costs dramatically increase as we move from within country comparisons to comparisons across countries, inconsistent with our priors services have somewhat comparable trade costs to tradable goods. Finally, wage differentials are negatively associated with the speed of price adjustment and this effect is stronger for city pairs that are farther apart.
    Keywords: law-of-one-price, threshold auto-regressive, structural estimation, convergence rates, trade costs
    JEL: F41
    Date: 2018–05
  28. By: Mai Miyamoto (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kenji Takeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This study investigates the trade flows of renewable energy products, focusing on the role of technological development. We estimate a gravity model that explains the trade flows among 35 OECD countries from 1996 to 2010 using patent counts as a proxy for technology level. We compare the pattern of the trade flows between two representative renewable energy products: those related to wind and solar electricity generation. The results suggest that technological level is correlated with trade flows and this correlation is weaker in the model for solar products than that for wind products. When we include China in the sample in estimation, the technological level of solar energy is no longer correlated with the exports of solar power products.
    Keywords: Renewable energy products; Trade; Technological development; Patent; Gravity model
    JEL: F14 O33 Q55
    Date: 2018–05
  29. By: Costa-i-Font, Joan; Mas, Núria
    Abstract: We examine the effect of globalization, in its economic and social dimensions, on obesity and caloric intake, namely the so –called ‘globesity’ hypothesis. Our results suggest a robust association between globalization and both obesity and caloric intake. A one standard deviation increase in globalization is associated with a 23.8 percent increase in obese population and a 4.3 percent rise in calorie intake. The effect remains statistically significant even with an instrumental variable strategy to correct for some possible reverse causality, a lagged structure, and corrections for panel standard errors. However, we find that the primary driver is ‘social’ rather than ‘economic’ globalization effects, and specifically the effects of changes in ‘information flows’ and ‘social proximity’ on obesity. A one standard deviation increase in social globalization increased the percentage of obese population by 13.7 percent.
    Keywords: health inequality; categorical data; entropy measures; health surveys; upward status; downward status.
    JEL: I18 P46
    Date: 2016–10–18

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