nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2018‒01‒15
28 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Exploring the Relationship between Trade Liberalization and Ethiopian Economic Growth By Bekele, Yetsedaw Emagne
  2. Notes on Sigwatch's NGO campaign database By Pamina Koenig
  3. Firm Size and the Intensive Margin of Import Demand By J. Blaum; c. Lelarge; M. Peters
  4. Do Governments Drive Global Trade Imbalances? By Joseph E. Gagnon
  5. Trade barriers and informality of trade: evidence from Benin's borders By Sami Bensassi; Joachim Jarreau; Cristina Mitaritonna
  6. [WTO Case Review Series No.24] Russian Federation—Measures on the Importation of Live Pigs, Pork and Other Pig Products from the European Union (DS475): Clarifying the regulatory framework of regionalization under Article 6 of the SPS Agreement (Japanese) By ISHIKAWA Yoshimichi
  7. The Life-Cycle Dynamics of Exporters and Multinational Firms By Anna Gumpert; Andreas Moxnes; Natalia Ramondo; Felix Tintelnot
  8. Transport Infrastructure Investments and Competition for FDI By Kate Hynes; Jie Ma; Cheng Yuan
  9. Do Emigrants Self-Select along Cultural Traits? Evidence from the MENA Countries By Docquier, Frédéric; Tansel, Aysit; Turati, Riccardo
  10. Food Trade, Biodiversity Effects and Price Volatility By Cecilia Bellora; Jean-Marc Bourgeon
  11. Value Chains: Production Upstreamness and Downstreamness Revisited By Patricio Aroca; Randall Jackson
  12. United States- Latin America and the Caribbean Trade Developments 2016-2017 By -
  13. Dynamic Openness and Finance in Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Minkoua N., Jules
  14. Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies By Drechsel, Thomas; Tenreyro, Silvana
  15. Politicized Trade: What Drives Withdrawal of Trade Preferences? By Martin Gassebner; Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan
  16. Aggregating From Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade By Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E.
  17. The role of mobile phones in governance-driven technology exports in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Asongu, Ndemaze
  18. Gender Gap and Trade Liberalization: An Analysis of some selected SAARC countries By Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad
  20. Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Korean bilateral trade balance models with her 14 partners By Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Baek, Jungho
  21. Reaching Up and Reaching Out: The Impact of Competition on Firms’ Productivity and Export Decisions By Kate Hynes; Eric Evans Osei Opoku; Isabel K. M. Yan
  22. Internationalisation of R&D: A Review of Drivers, Impacts, and new Lines of Research By Dachs, Bernhard
  23. AI and the Future Society: Impact on labor and globalization (Japanese) By HAYASHI Susumu
  24. Scenarios for modelling trade policy effects on the multifunctionality of European agriculture By Janet Dwyer; David Baldock; Hervé Guyomard; Jerzy Wilkin; Dorota Klepacka
  25. Are Democratic Regimes Antithetical to Globalization? By Mishra, SK
  26. The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote By Benjamin Born; Gernot Müller; Moritz Schularick; Petr SedláÄ ek
  27. La réforme de la PAC et les négociations du GATT : perspectives pour l'agriculture française et communautaire By Hervé Guyomard; Louis Pascal Mahe
  28. The Migration of Fear: An Analysis of Migration Choices of Syrian Refugees By Mehmet Balcilar; Jeffrey B. Nugent

  1. By: Bekele, Yetsedaw Emagne
    Abstract: Theoretical and empirical economic literature has shown the economic growth of countries is related to both liberalization and international trade integration. The main purpose of this study is to apply this knowledge to the Ethiopian case and estimate the impact of trade liberalization on Ethiopian economic growth. The study has employed an Error Correction Model (ECM) for the time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 to examine the economic effect of trade liberalization on the Ethiopian economy. The empirical results show that there are both short run and long run relationships between liberalization and economic growth. More specifically, trade openness has had a positive and significant impact on economic growth of Ethiopia. Therefore, the government of Ethiopian should have to design a more opened trade policies so as to reap the benefits associated with integrating ones economy with the world economy.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Economic Growth, ECM, Trade Liberalization
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2017–09–30
  2. By: Pamina Koenig (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics, URN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)
    Abstract: Activists monitoring global value chains are closely linked to international production and sales by companies. Academic research on international trade is however scarce in empirical work analyzing the behavior of these activists. The Sigwatch campaign database is a new and rich dataset listing campaigns launched by activists against multinational corporations. I provide explanatory notes on the raw data available for academics, and background information on the replication dataset for Hatte and Koenig (2017). Short descriptive statistics on campaigns are also presented.
    Keywords: NGOs campaigns,multinational firms,dataset,global value chains
    Date: 2017–12
  3. By: J. Blaum; c. Lelarge; M. Peters
    Abstract: We use French microdata to test an ubiquitous property of firm-based models of importing. When firm efficiency is factor neutral and input prices and qualities are common across firms, firm size should have no effect on expenditure shares on the different products and varieties sourced, holding the extensive margin constant. We show that this property is not supported by the data. Holding the sourcing strategy fixed, we find that larger firms (i) have lower import shares, (ii) concentrate their import spending on their top varieties and (iii) pay higher prices for their imported inputs. Our findings imply that input trade, through the intensive margin, is less beneficial for larger firms. Our results are consistent with a complementarity between firm productivity and input quality.
    Keywords: Trade in Intermediate Inputs; Firm heterogeneity, Firm size, Non-homotheticities.
    JEL: F11 F12 F14 D21 D22 D24
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Joseph E. Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which government policies are responsible for the pattern of current account (trade) imbalances and, by implication, the extent to which such policies might be used to achieve the G-20 goal of reducing imbalances. Fiscal balances and foreign exchange intervention are the most important observable factors behind differences in current account balances across countries and over time. This finding is robust to alternative equation specifications, estimation techniques, and sample selections. The empirical results in this paper strongly suggest that G-20 countries (and others) have the necessary tools to achieve their stated goal of narrowing current account imbalances.
    Keywords: current account balance; fiscal balance; foreign exchange intervention
    JEL: F32 F41 F42
    Date: 2017–12
  5. By: Sami Bensassi (University of Birmingham); Joachim Jarreau (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University, IRD, LEDa, DIAL); Cristina Mitaritonna (CEPII, Paris, France)
    Abstract: Informal cross-border trade is large, ubiquitous, and persistent in Africa. This paper studies the role of trade barriers in this state of aairs. We use a unique survey of informal transactions across Benin's land borders, which pro- vides the rst direct and comprehensive account of trade volumes and product coverage for this type of trade. We combine this data with ocial trade records and exploit variation across products and countries to measure the impact of tari and non-tari barriers to trade on informality. Increasing taris on a given product by 10% makes it 12% to 14% more likely that this product is imported informally rather than formally. Non-tari measures also increase informality. Our results also suggest that compliance costs, aside from taris and regulations, contribute to explain informality.
    Keywords: Informal trade, Regional Integration, Trade facilitation, Evasion, Africa.
    JEL: O17 F15 H26
    Date: 2017–10
  6. By: ISHIKAWA Yoshimichi
    Abstract: It has been a generally accepted practice of World Trade Organization (WTO) Members, including Japan, to prohibit the importation of relevant products from the entire territory of an export country where an outbreak of animal infectious diseases occurs. Later on, upon the request from the exporting country to recognize disease-free areas within its territory and restart the imports therefrom, the importing country is required, in accordance with the idea of "regionalization" regulated by Article 6 of the SPS Agreement, to conduct a risk assessment, and restart the imports from the certain areas determined as disease-free under certain conditions. In the present dispute, when the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks were confirmed in Lithuania on January 24, 2014, Russia immediately placed the ban on the importation of pig-related products from the entire European Union (EU), including unaffected EU member States ("EU-wide ban"). Thus, this paper will analyze the issue as to how much the idea and function of regionalization regulated under Article 6 of the SPS Agreement has been clarified through the recent case law, including the present dispute, as well as India-Avian Influenza (DS430) and US-Animals (DS447).
    Date: 2017–11
  7. By: Anna Gumpert; Andreas Moxnes; Natalia Ramondo; Felix Tintelnot
    Abstract: This paper studies the life-cycle dynamics of exporters and multinational enterprises (MNEs). We present a dynamic model of trade and MNE activity in which the mode of serving a market depends on the well-known proximity-concentration tradeoff. We show that the option of performing MNE activities in the model produces life-cycle patterns for exporters that differ from those in an export-only model. Calibrating our model to rich firm-level data from France and Norway, our main quantitative finding is that a reduction in trade costs triggers much larger responses in growth rates and exit rates, for young exporters, in the model with MNEs than in the model without MNEs. We also show that the model is largely consistent with a set of new facts on the joint life-cycle dynamic behavior of exporters and MNEs.
    Keywords: international trade, exporters, multinational firm, Markov process, sunk cost, proximity-concentration tradeoff, trade liberalization
    JEL: F10 F20
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Kate Hynes; Jie Ma; Cheng Yuan
    Abstract: This paper studies how transport infrastructure investments affect a bidding war for a firm between two asymmetric countries within a region in a context of imperfect competition, where transport infrastructure investments play the role of a global public good, leading to a reduction in the unit trade cost between the two countries. A number of interesting results are derived from the model. In particular, transport infrastructure investments can intensify fiscal competition between the two countries. Surprisingly, this conventional wisdom seems to be confirmed by this paper for the first time. Welfare implications of the model are also examined.
    Keywords: Transport infrastructure investments; Fiscal competition; FDI; Imperfectly competitive market
    JEL: F21 F23 H40
    Date: 2017–09
  9. By: Docquier, Frédéric (Université catholique de Louvain); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Turati, Riccardo (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates whether emigrants from MENA countries self-select on cultural traits such as religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. To do so, we use Gallup World Poll data on individual opinions and beliefs, migration aspirations, short-run migration plans, and preferred destination choices. We find that individuals who intend to emigrate to OECD, high-income countries exhibit significantly lower levels of religiosity than the rest of the population. They also share more gender-egalitarian views, although the effect only holds among the young (aged 15 to 30), among single women, and in countries with a Sunni minority. For countries mostly affected by Arab Spring, since 2011 the degree of cultural selection has decreased. Nevertheless, the aggregate effects of cultural selection should not be overestimated. Overall, self-selection along cultural traits has limited (albeit non negligible) effects on the average characteristics of the population left behind, and on the cultural distance between natives and immigrants in the OECD countries.
    Keywords: international migration, self-selection, cultural traits, gender-egalitarian attitudes, religiosity, MENA region
    JEL: F22 J61 Z10
    Date: 2017–11
  10. By: Cecilia Bellora (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Jean-Marc Bourgeon (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase food production risks and decrease productivity when agriculture specializes. Under free trade, they reduce the specialization in food production that otherwise prevails in a Ricardian two-country setup. Pesticides allow farmers to reduce biodiversity effects , but they are damaging for the environment and for human health. When regulating farming practices under free trade, governments face a trade-off: they are tempted to restrict the use of pesticides compared to under autarky because domestic consumption partly relies on imports and thus depends less on them, but they also want to preserve the competitiveness of their agricultural sector on international markets. Contrary to the environmental race-to-the-bottom tenet, we show that at the symmetric equilibrium under free trade restrictions on pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky. As a result, trade increases the price volatility of crops produced by both countries, and, depending on the intensity of the biodiversity effects, of some or all of the crops that are country-specific.
    Keywords: food prices,agricultural trade,agrobiodiversity,pesticides
    Date: 2017–12–20
  11. By: Patricio Aroca (CEPR, Business School, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Chile); Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: Measures devised to quantify production upstreamness and downstreamness in value chains have been introduced and used increasingly in recent years. While the constructs embodied in these measures are meaningful, this paper identifies an overlooked implementation problem. Specifically, the algorithms have been applied either as though the underlying data represent flows, or under the assumption of a one-to-one correspondence between industries and primary products. Implementation data, however, are drawn from modern input-output accounting frameworks that recognize secondary production explicitly. Although they describe the use of commodities by industries, published Use matrices unadjusted are not conventional flows matrices because they do not identify the industries from which commodities originate. Neither do they represent commodity destinations. We demonstrate logical inconsistencies that arise from treating the Use matrix as a flow matrix, provide correct flow matrix formulations for upstreamness and downstreamness calculations, and present comparisons among empirical results from the correct and incorrect formulations.
    Keywords: Value Chains, Input-output, Upstreamness, Downstreamness
    JEL: F12 D57
    Date: 2018–01
  12. By: -
    Abstract: United States Trade Developments, 2016-2017, provides an overview of the most relevant developments in United States trade relations with Latin America and the Caribbean and of the measures that inhibit the free flow of goods among countries in the Western Hemisphere. This is an annual report elaborated by the ECLAC Washington Office. The report also describes the main trade policy developments of the year, discuses United States trade deficits and presents trade inhibiting measures.
    Date: 2017–12–29
  13. By: Asongu, Simplice; Minkoua N., Jules
    Abstract: This study assesses dynamics of openness and finance in Africa by integrating financial development dynamics of depth, activity and size in the assessment of how financial, trade, institutional, political and other openness policies (of second generation structural and institutional reforms) have affected financial development. The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Method of Moments with data from 28 African countries for the period 1996-2010. The following findings are established. (i) While the de jure (KAOPEN) indicator of financial openness improves financial depth, the de facto (FDI) measurement decreases it, with the effect of the latter measure positive on financial size. (ii) Whereas trade openness improves financial depth, its effect on financial activity and size is negative. (iii) Institutional openness has a positive effect on financial dynamics of depth and activity, while its effect on financial size is negative. (iv) Political openness and economic freedom are detrimental to financial depth and activity. Justifications for these nexuses are discussed.
    Keywords: Banking; Trade; Institutions; Politics; Africa
    JEL: E50 G20 O16 O17 O55
    Date: 2017–01
  14. By: Drechsel, Thomas; Tenreyro, Silvana
    Abstract: Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles. The economy consists of two sectors, one of which produces commodities with prices subject to exogenous international fluctuations. These fluctuations affect both the competitiveness of the economy and its borrowing terms, as higher commodity prices are associated with lower spreads between the country’s borrowing rate and world interest rates. Both effects jointly result in strongly positive effects of commodity price increases on GDP, consumption and investment, and a negative effect on the total trade balance. Furthermore, they generate excess volatility of consumption over output and a large volatility of investment. The model structure nests various candidate sources of shocks proposed in previous work on emerging economy business cycles. Estimating the model on Argentine data, we find that the contribution of commodity price shocks to fluctuations in post-1950 output growth is in the order of 38%. In addition, commodity prices account for around 42% and 61% of the variation in consumption and investment growth, respectively. We find transitory productivity shocks to be an important driver of output fluctuations, exceeding the contribution of shocks to the trend, which is smaller, although not negligible.
    JEL: E13 E32 F43 O11 O16
    Date: 2017–08–21
  15. By: Martin Gassebner; Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan
    Abstract: While it is well understood that industrialized countries use aid to grant political favors, little research covers alternative channels such as trade policy towards developing countries. We analyze eligibility investigations and revoking of U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) benefits to see whether political friends of the U.S. receive favorable treatment. While countries politically aligned with the U.S. are equally likely to be investigated, they are significantly less likely to have their benefits suspended.
    Keywords: trade policy, development, GSP, United Nations General Assembly
    JEL: F13 F53 O19 O24
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E.
    Abstract: We develop a new framework for aggregating from micro to macro patterns of trade. We derive price indexes that determine comparative advantage across countries and sectors and the aggregate cost of living. If firms and products are imperfect substitutes, we show that these price indexes depend on variety, average demand/quality and the dispersion of demand/quality-adjusted prices, and are only weakly related to standard empirical measures of average prices, thereby providing insight for elasticity puzzles. Of the cross-section (time-series) variation in comparative advantage, 50 (90) percent is accounted for by variety and average demand/quality, with average prices contributing less than 10 percent.
    Keywords: comparative advantage; prices; Quality; Trade; Variety
    JEL: F11 F12 F14
    Date: 2017–11
  17. By: Asongu, Simplice; Asongu, Ndemaze
    Abstract: This study assesses how the mobile phone influences governance to improve information and communication technology (ICT) exports in Sub-Saharan Africa with data from 2000-2012. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and three main governance concepts are used, namely: (i) institutional (comprising the rule of law and corruption-control); (ii) political (involving political stability/no violence and voice & accountability) and (iii) economic (including regulation quality and government effectiveness) governance. The following findings are established. First, there are positive net effects on ICT goods exports from independent interactions between mobile phones and ‘political stability’ ‘voice and accountability’ and corruption-control. Second, significant net effects are not apparent from independent interactions between mobile phones and government effectiveness, regulation quality and the rule of law. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Knowledge Economy; Development; Africa
    JEL: L59 L98 O10 O30 O55
    Date: 2017–01
  18. By: Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad
    Abstract: Trade liberalization plays a significant role in the development of an economy as all countries have insufficient resources and depend on trade to grow and prosper. The key objective of this study is to explore the relationship of trade liberalization on women empowerment. It also aims to find out whether it is beneficial for gender gap or not. This study utilizes the sample of five SAARC countries for the time period of 15 years, that is, from 2000 to 2014. It emphasizes on tariffs and regulatory trade barriers, which are considered significant indicators of trade liberalization, along with the freedom of trade, that is a composite index. The gender gap is measured through the female to male participation rate, whereas, gender development index(GDI) is used as a relative measure of women empowerment after adjusting HDI for gender disparity in three dimensions. The other control variable incorporated in this study includes: gross domestic product growth, education of female, female unemployment rate and the hiring regulations & minimum wage standards. The econometric technique applied is the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) method along with various diagnostic tests. When trade liberalization goes up, it increases the GDI, meaning lower gender disparity, which in turn refers to greater women empowerment. The research concludes that whenever the trade liberalization increases, it does not reduce the gender gap, which means the female to male participation rate goes down. It encourages women to actively participate in the labor market, but it does not play a role in reducing gender gap. Education of female is essential because it creates awareness among girls and enhances their skills, which leads to empowering women, making them self-sufficient and active participants in the economic activity, which can improve their standard of living.
    Keywords: Gender Gap, Trade liberalization
    JEL: F1 J0
    Date: 2017–01
  19. By: Priit Vahter, Jaan Masso
    Abstract: While an abundance of studies exists documenting the significant wage premium of multinationals (MNE) and the effects of foreign direct investments (FDI) on wage inequality, much less is still known about how foreign ownership affects the gender wage gap of employees in firms. Based on employer-employee level data from Estonia – a country with the largest gender wage gap in the EU – this study highlights the regularity that foreign owned firms display on average a substantially larger gender wage gap than domestically owned firms. Among different occupation groups, this result is especially evident among managers. Furthermore, this difference is also evident if we focus on acquisitions of domestic firms by MNEs and estimate its effects based on propensity score matching. The resulting increase in gender wage gap is due to men capturing a higher wage premium from working at foreign owned firms than women, although both tend to gain in terms of wages from being employed at MNEs. We find evidence (albeit limited) suggesting that one of the explanations of the difference in the gender wage gap between foreign-owned and domestically-owned firms could potentially be that MNEs require more of a continuous commitment from their employees compared to other firms.
    Keywords: FDI, foreign ownership, wages, gender wage gap
    JEL: F10 F23 J16 J31
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Baek, Jungho
    Abstract: Introduction of new econometric methods raises interest in assessing the old theories and the J-curve phenomenon is no exception. Like previous research we first use the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) to investigate the phenomenon between Korea and each of her 14 trading partners. We then employ recent nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) to show that in most cases, exchange rate changes have short-run and long-run asymmetric effects on the bilateral trade balances. Separating depreciations from appreciations which is the main feature of the nonlinear model relies upon nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate and provides relatively more support for the J-curve effect.
    Keywords: Asymmetry Cointegration, J-Curve, Korea, 14 Partners. Nonlinear ARDL
    JEL: F1 F3
    Date: 2016–02–13
  21. By: Kate Hynes; Eric Evans Osei Opoku; Isabel K. M. Yan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of competition in both the domestic and foreign markets on firm productivity and export decisions using firm level data from 139 countries. Using a Sample Selection Endogenous Treatment (SSET) Poisson model that tackles both the issue of endogenous sample selection and endogenous treatment at the same time, we document robust evidence that strong competition in the domestic market propels firms to be more productive, and rising domestic competition increases firms’ propensity to export. However, firms’ export intensity, i.e. how much they export, is not directly influenced by competition in the domestic market. Moreover, lower competition in the foreign market increases the propensity of domestic firms to export, enlarging the set of exporting firms to firms with relatively smaller export amount.
    Keywords: Productivity; Export propensity; Export intensity; Competition; SSET-Poisson model
    JEL: C21 J24 L25
    Date: 2017–09
  22. By: Dachs, Bernhard
    Abstract: This paper reviews the growing literature on the internationalisation of R&D in the business sector. By internationalisation of R&D, this paper means the fact that firms conduct research and development at locations outside their home countries. The survey focuses on three issues: first, the drivers of the process at the country, the sectoral and the firm level – why firms go abroad with R&D activities. Second, evidence on the effects of the internationalisation of R&D on the host and home countries of multinational firms. So far, there is a consensus in the literature that R&D internationalisation benefits the host countries. Third, the paper discusses some new lines of research on R&D internationalisation related to the role of indirect funding for R&D, R&D internationalisation in services and multinationals from emerging economies.
    Keywords: Internationalisation, R&D, innovation, foreign-owned firms, outsourcing
    JEL: F23 O31
    Date: 2017–12
  23. By: HAYASHI Susumu
    Abstract: Many U.S. artificial intelligence startups regard their technology as a means to augment the capacity of skilled professionals. Artificial intelligence is a kind of intellectual powered exoskeleton, and a professional augmented version with such an intellectual exoskeleton is another type of AI, or augmented intelligence. What really matters is not the "race against the machine" but the "race against the machine-powered human competitor." A highly skilled "AI-master craftsman" in the near future would replace less skilled human workers with artificial workers who work as his/her journeymen or apprentices. In this way, advanced AI technologies will worsen the problem of economic inequality, and destabilize the future society. Entirely new social systems must be studied and introduced to prevent it. A potential scenario could be Chinese workers assembling iPhones in mainland China being replaced by the AI-master craftsman's artificial workers located in the United States. It is even possible that the American AI-master and his team will work for Asian enterprises. Thus, AI might reverse the direction of offshoring. We should prepare for the possibility of such a drastic change in the world economic system caused by the advancement of AI technologies.
    Date: 2017–11
  24. By: Janet Dwyer (Independent); David Baldock (Independent); Hervé Guyomard (Économie et Sociologie Rurales - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Jerzy Wilkin (Independent); Dorota Klepacka (Inconnu)
    Abstract: Le document de travail propose différents scénarios "emboîtés" permettant d'analyser les impacts potentiels des réformes multilatérales des politiques agricoles à l'OMC sur la multifonctionnalité de l'agriculture européenne.
    Keywords: Production et marchés,POLITIQUE AGRICOLE COMMUNE,union européenne
    Date: 2017–09–26
  25. By: Mishra, SK
    Abstract: In this study we have made an attempt to investigate into the relationship between political regime type (that ranges from authoritarian to democratic) and the extent of globalization, which of late has been considered as a path to development. We have made use of the Democracy index (and its constituent indicators) provided by the Economist Intelligence Unit and the globalization index (and its constituent indicators) of the KOF. Applying canonical correlation analysis on the data we have made an attempt to look into the response of globalization to the quantitative measures of democratic (versus authoritarian) practices of the governments in 116 countries distributed over Asia, Africa, Australia/Oceania, Europe and the Americas. We have also tested the Lee thesis in the context of globalization as a path to development. Our findings indicate that the empirical support to Lee’s thesis if extended to globalization as a path to development is superficial and does not withstand critical analysis. Contrary to Lee’s thesis, democracy promotes globalization. In African countries political discordance (at the national as well as international level) is not much favourable while in the Asian countries, political will, irrespective of regime type, is more or less in concordance with globalization. Therefore, rather illusively, it so appears that democracies thwart development as well as globalization as a means to development by implication, while the reality is very different.
    Keywords: Globalization; democracy; authoritarian regime; Lee thesis; canonical correlation; Asia; Africa; Australia; Europe; the Americas
    JEL: O51 O52 O53 O54 O55 O56 O57
    Date: 2017–12–17
  26. By: Benjamin Born; Gernot Müller; Moritz Schularick; Petr SedláÄ ek
    Abstract: This paper introduces a data-driven, transparent and unbiased method to calculate the economic costs of the Brexit vote in June 2016. We let a matching algorithm determine a combination of comparison economies that best resembles the growth path of the UK economy before the Brexit referendum. The economic cost of the Brexit vote is the difference in output between the UK economy and and its synthetic doppelganger. We show that, contrary to public perception, by the third quarter of 2017 the economic costs of the Brexit vote are already 1.3% of GDP. The cumulative costs amount to almost 20 billion pounds and are expected to grow to more than 60 billion pounds by end-2018. We provide evidence that heightened policy uncertainty has already taken a toll on investment and consumption.
    Keywords: Brexit, European Union, policy uncertainty, synthetic control method
    JEL: E65 F13 F42
    Date: 2018
  27. By: Hervé Guyomard (Unité d'économie et sociologie rurales de rennes - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Louis Pascal Mahe (Unité d'Économie et sociologie rurales de Rennes - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)
    Abstract: Après avoir replacé la réforme et les négociations du GATT dans le contexte mondial de l'agriculture et des politiques agricoles, les auteurs examinent le rôle possible du GATT dans la définition des politiques agricoles nationales. Les conséquences probables de la réforme de la PAC au niveau agrégé et sa compatibilité avec le pré-accord de Blair House sont présentées. En conclusion, les différentes perspectives qui s'offrent aux agricultures européenne et française, ainsi que pour l'agrofourniture, sont détaillées.
    Keywords: POLITIQUE AGRICOLE COMMUNE,Etats-Unis,reformation,general agreement on tariffs and trade,international negotiation,eec,négociation internationale,cee,gatt,france,usa,réforme
    Date: 2017–09–26
  28. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Jeffrey B. Nugent (University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, US)
    Abstract: The current literature on forced migration offers only limited knowledge of how each of the different consequences of war, such as damage to property and casualties to family members, and the services provided to the refugees in the host country, affect the difficult choices that refugees subsequently must make as to when and where to migrate once again. This paper contributes to the literature on forced migration by studying the effects of armed violence in the country that has given rise to the largest number of refugees in the world in the last decade, namely Syria, on those various migration-related decisions. The study is based on all three waves (2013, 2014 and 2015) of a survey conducted of Syrian refugees in Turkey, the country with the largest number of Syrian refugees. The study first examines the various impacts of war (property damage, casualties, sleeping disorders) on the refugees by gender, age, education, income and other characteristics. More importantly, it then investigates the consequences of these different impacts of war as well as the duration of the refugee’s stay in Turkey, the quality of services provided to these refugees and the individual characteristics of the refugees on various alternative choices about the timing and destination of future migration by refugees using a logit model. The results show that (1) the longer and greater the level of violence in the country of origin, and the longer the time spent outside of Syria, the lower the likelihood of the choice to return to the country of origin; (2). the longer the time the refugee has spent in Turkey, the higher is the probability of permanent settlement in another European country; and (3) the more and higher quality of services provided to the refugees, the more likely they are to remain in Turkey While females are more likely to want to return to Syria, men and especially those with greater education, higher income and personal networks are more likely to want to relocate somewhere in Europe or elsewhere.
    Keywords: refugees, forced migration, labor market, employment, immigration, logit model, civil war, Syria, Turkey.
    JEL: F22 J10 J15 R23 C25 N45
    Date: 2018

This nep-int issue is ©2018 by Luca Salvatici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.