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on International Trade |
| By: | Antimiani, Alessandro (DG Trade); Cernat, Lucian (DG Trade) |
| Abstract: | The growing role of services inputs in manufacturing exports ("services in boxes") has led to a proposal for a new modality of exporting services (mode 5 services) beyond the four modes of supply in the GATS. For the vast majority of WTO members the significance of mode 5 services is considerable, both in exports and imports. However unlike traditional GATS services trade, mode 5 services "in boxes" pay tariffs. This paper estimates that the global GDP gains from liberalizing mode 5 services at multilateral level could reach up to €300 billion by 2025 and world trade could increase by over €500 billion. The paper also examines the interplay between mode 5 services trade and the growing importance of future technological developments (e.g. software, digitalisation, the Internet of Things). Our preliminary set of results shows that a Mode 5 Services Initiative is important not only because of the positive impact it would have on global trade flows but also because it would facilitate trade-led technological progress in all regions of the world. |
| Keywords: | Mode 5 services; international trade; economic modelling |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2017_004&r=int |
| By: | Naomitsu Yashiro; Konstantins Benkovskis; Jaan Masso; Olegs Tkacevs; Priit Vahter |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of export entry on productivity, employment and wages of Latvian and Estonian firms in the context of global value chain (GVC). Like in many countries, exporting firms in Latvia and Estonia are more productive, larger, pay higher wages and are more capital intensive than non-exporting firms. While this is partly because firms that are originally more productive and have better performances are more likely to enter export, Latvian and Estonian firms also realise more than 23% and 14% higher labour productivity level as the result of export entry. Export entry also increases employment and average wages. Gains in productivity and employment are particularly large when firms enter exports that are related to participation in knowledge-intensive activities found in the upstream of GVC. For instance, Latvian firms that start exporting intermediate goods or non-transport services (which include knowledge intensive services) enjoy significantly higher productivity gains than those starting to export final goods or transport services. These findings underscore the importance of innovation policies that strengthen firms’ capabilities to supply highly differentiated knowledge-intensive goods and services to GVC. |
| Keywords: | estonia, export, global value chain, latvia, productivity |
| JEL: | F12 F14 O19 O57 |
| Date: | 2017–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1448-en&r=int |
| By: | Will Martin |
| Abstract: | The second United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG2) includes the goal to: “End hunger and achieve food security and improved nutrition” by 2030. While such an ambitious goal will clearly involve a wide range of policies and actors, this policy brief focuses on the role of trade policies in affecting food and nutrition security. Extensive and frequently contentious, debate swirls about whether trade in agricultural products is beneficial or detrimental for food security, particularly in developing countries (Diaz-Bonilla 2015). Food self-sufficiency proponents argue that global trade in food products can hurt smaller and poor producers in developing countries by exposing them to increased price volatility and competition (Edelman et al. 2014). For those on the pro-trade side, trade in food products is an important channel for improving consumers’ access to food, and agricultural exports are an importance source of income for many small farmers worldwide. This brief first examines the relationship between trade and food security. It then turns to how specific agricultural trade policies can impact food security and hunger. |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-1744&r=int |
| By: | Margherita Scoppola (University of Macerata); Valentina Raimondi (University of Milan); Alessandro Olper (University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990-2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive\textemdash number of exported products - or the intensive margin - volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and with the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, while the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products. |
| Keywords: | Gravity equation,EU trade preferences,Developing countries,Extensive/intensive margins |
| JEL: | F13 Q17 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcr:wpaper:wpaper00051&r=int |
| By: | Laura Dell'Agostino |
| Abstract: | In the last decades, the extension of the supply and production networks at global level has deeply modified the manufacturing production paradigm. This paper analyses the evolution of these networks, taking advantage of the informative potential of the Word Input-Output Database (WIOD) and of the methodology proposed by Wang et al. (2013) to look at this issue “through the lenses of value added”. More specifically, the paper focuses on Italy and its main trade partners and on two relevant industries (Machinery and Leather, leather products and footwear) and offers a comprehensive analysis of: (i) the export structure, to define the role of countries within the global networks; (ii) the main suppliers of foreign value added in exported goods and (iii) the productive inks of Italy with its major exporting markets, replacing the traditional customers-suppliers analysis with a more detailed wisdom that brings to light the productive integration among countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade, trade in value added, GVC, Italy, manufacturing |
| JEL: | F15 L23 L60 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0228&r=int |
| By: | Miroudot, Sébastien; Ye, Ming |
| Abstract: | To better understand trade in the context of global value chains, it is important to have a full and explicit decomposition of value-added in gross exports. While the decomposition proposed by Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) is a first step in this direction, there are still three outstanding issues that need to be further addressed: (1) the nature of double counting in gross exports; (2) the calculation of the foreign value-added net of any double counting; and (3) the decomposition of gross exports at the industry level (the industry where exports take place). In this paper, we propose a new accounting framework that addresses these different issues and clarifies the definition of exports in inter-country input-output (ICIO) tables. It contributes to the literature: (i) by refining the definition of double-counted value-added in gross exports; (ii) by providing new expressions for the foreign value-added and double-counted terms; and (iii) by indicating how the new framework can be used to decompose exports at the industry level. |
| Keywords: | Trade accounting, input-output table, Value-added decomposition, Global value chains |
| JEL: | E01 F14 F23 L14 |
| Date: | 2017–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83273&r=int |
| By: | Harald Oberhofer (WIFO); Michael Pfaffermayr (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero. |
| Keywords: | Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Panel Data, International Trade, Structural Gravity Estimation, Trade Policy, Brexit |
| Date: | 2017–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2017:i:546&r=int |
| By: | Lungu, Ioana |
| Abstract: | The narratives in the media with respect to EU external policies and their effects on developing countries generally paint a picture of unequal power dynamics and negative externalities, particularly with respect to international trade and land grabbing. In this paper, I use trade data to argue that reality is more nuanced and aim to provide a preliminary sketch of the institutional dynamics between the EU and Africa. I focus on agricultural relationships to highlight the interplay between historical path dependencies, colonialism, trade policy and domestic institutions on the EU and African side. While trade is often portrayed in an overly simplified manner as the main factor hindering agricultural development, African countries are often plagued by a long history of extractive institutions, both politically and economically, which lead to a vicious cycle of unequally distributed resources, exploitation, insecure human rights and a lack of incentives for innovation. This becomes apparent when examining phenomena such as land-grabbing, which often involve African elites partnering with foreign investors to conclude controversial deals. Overall, this paper aims to highlight the necessity of building institutional capacity particularly in countries with a long history of extractive institutional continuity, and to underline the importance of state centralisation for agricultural development, so that African partners can fully take advantage of the preferential trade regime with the EU and improve their position with respect to power dynamics. |
| Keywords: | development; institutional economics; international trade; Economic Partnership Agreement; European Union; Africa; agricultural development; |
| JEL: | F19 H8 O1 O13 O2 O20 O24 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83112&r=int |
| By: | Nguyen Thi Xuan, Thu; Pham Anh, Tuan; Phung Duy, Quang |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 20/2017 by Quang Phung Duy, Tuan Pham Anh and Thu Nguyen Thi Xuan |
| Abstract: | This study examines determinants of intra-industry trade between Vietnam and ASEAN countries. By solving endogenous problems and applying a Hausman-Taylor model panel two-way dataset, we detect that export flows of Vietnam gravitate to neighbouring countries and those with similar GDP. More importantly, the research indicates the existence of spatial-lag interaction. |
| Date: | 2017–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1144&r=int |
| By: | Dekker, Vincent; Strohmaier, Kristina |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effect of transfer pricing regulations on trade ows. We base our estimation on a panel gravity model, where the transfer pricing regulations are modeled as trade costs. To abstract from any aggregate demand shocks, we focus on intermediate goods in the car industry. Our results suggest a significant volume effect on the exported quantity as a result of the introduction of transfer pricing laws in the exporting country. Exports to lower tax rate countries are reduced, whilst exports to higher tax rate countries are increased. In line with theory, transfer pricing regulations only play a role if a tax rate difference exists between the trading partners. |
| Keywords: | Panel Gravity Model,Transfer Pricing Regulations,Intermediate Goods Trade,Corporate Tax |
| JEL: | F23 H25 H26 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:322017&r=int |
| By: | Ana Cuadros (IIE and Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Joan Martín-Montaner (IIE and Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Jordi Paniagua (IIE and Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper models and quantifies the role played by migrants occupying a variety of jobs positions (managers, professional and non-qualified) in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Higher shares of migrants with management skills are expected to mitigate management and transaction costs of foreign affiliates. We test our model on a global panel data set of Greenfield bilateral investment with wide variety of gravity specifications, both at the extensive and intensive margins. The paper provides a novel rationale for the heterogeneous effects of low-skilled migration and new insights into the mechanisms by which migration operates in the firm’s FDI decisions, with particular attention to the relevance of firm size and activity. |
| Keywords: | migration; foreign Direct Investment; FDI; job skills; gravity equation; extensive margin |
| JEL: | F21 F22 F23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2017/15&r=int |
| By: | Geoffrey J Bannister; Manuk Ghazanchyan; Theodore Pierre Bikoi |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed. |
| Date: | 2017–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/251&r=int |
| By: | Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Nicholas Biekpe (Cape Town, South Africa.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of globalization on terrorism in 51 African countries for the period 1996-2011. Four terrorism indicators are used, namely: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism. Political, economic, social and general globalisation variables are employed and the empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effects regressions and Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). Whereas the FE regressions are overwhelmingly not significant, the following findings are established from GMM estimations. Political globalisation increases both domestic and transnational terrorism. Social globalisation and general globalisation increase transnational terrorism. Economic globalisation reduces domestic terrorism. Political globalisation, social globalisation and general globalization positively affect unclear terrorism. Social globalisation has a positive impact on total terrorism. Possible channels and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Terrorism; Globalization; Africa |
| JEL: | C52 D74 F30 F42 O55 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:17/053&r=int |
| By: | Emiliano Magrini (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome (IT).); Pierluigi Montalbano (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome (IT).); L. Alan Winters (Department of Economics, University of Sussex (UK)) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses vulnerability from trade in Vietnam by presenting an extended version of Ligon and Schechter’s (2003) Vulnerability as low Expected Utility (VEU) measure. It uses the VHLSS panel data covering the period 2002-06. The empirical results show that risk-induced vulnerability and het-erogeneity in trade exposure matters in determining household overall vulnerability and that this is not linked to the actual manifestation of shocks. Although it does not represent, by any means, an argument against free trade, this work is relevant for policymaking since it contributes to deepen our knowledge on the subtle links between trade openness and vulnerability providing some insight on the stabilisation needs of trade reforms. These include protecting vulnerable farmers from excessive price volatility, as well as fostering their risk management strategies. |
| Keywords: | trade openness, vulnerability, poverty, risk, consumption behaviour, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | F14 O12 D12 C31 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:12/17&r=int |
| By: | Mulu Gebreyesus (Ethiopian Development Research Institute); Alekaw Kebede (Ethiopian Development Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | By examining how much aligned the tariff and exchange rate regimes are with the export promotion in Ethiopia, this study tries to shed some light on why the export performance of the country and particularly that of manufacturing sector remained poor despite continued government promotion and support. Toward this it quantifies the extent of effective protection and defacto anti-export bias generated by the existing tariff and foreign exchange rate regimes. The disaggregated (approximately 2-digit) industry level estimates of the NRP, ERP and anti-export bias in the manufacturing sector show wide difference among industries. With about 35% nominal duty rate, the export oriented sectors such as Textiles, Apparels, Leathers, Footwear industries are the most protected ones within the manufacturing sector. The anti-export bias estimates suggest that the value added obtainable in the domestic market vis a vis exporting is greater than 1.5 times for the Leather and Footwear industries and more than 70% for the Textile & Apparel industries. The anti-export bias in these sectors remained large, even after considering a 100% of duty drawback on imported inputs, making the domestic market lucrative relative to the export market. This study further shows that exporters are penalized by the increasing overvalued exchange rate of the Birr. Finally, it highlights the inconsistency of the tariff and exchange rate policies with the export promotion of the country and provides some recommendations to address these anomalies. |
| Keywords: | Export promotion, protection, anti-export bias, macroeconomic policy, Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:etd:wpaper:019&r=int |
| By: | Dorothee Flaig; Frank van Tongeren; Emily Gray; Lucie Adenäuer |
| Abstract: | Switzerland’s overarching agricultural policy objectives reflect societal concerns about various production aspects of agriculture, such as environmental sustainability and animal welfare, and the expectation that agriculture will provide public goods demanded by society. Among the various policy instruments used by Switzerland to achieve these objectives, border protection represents a significant component of support. This study assesses the relevance of border protection for agriculture in Switzerland. It finds that border protection is not relevant for achieving the overarching objectives of Swiss agricultural policy, with one exception. By stimulating domestic production, high levels of border protection ensure that Switzerland meets its target rate of gross food production. But border protection is unlikely to deliver the other outcomes and public goods desired by Swiss society. This is because support provided through border protection is not conditional on delivery of the outcomes and public goods demanded by Swiss society, and is untargeted towards the activities, inputs and regions most strongly related to those outcomes and public goods. Moreover, border protection imposes significant costs on the Swiss economy. The study concludes by proposing alternative policies in place of border protection. |
| Keywords: | Border protection, METRO, multifunctionality, public goods, Switzerland |
| JEL: | Q15 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2017–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:109-en&r=int |
| By: | Chu Thanh, Giang; Dinh Hoang, Anh; Nguyen Phuong, Linh |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 18/2017 by Nguyen Phuong Linh, Dinh Hoang Anh and Chu Thanh Giang |
| Abstract: | Arbitration activities in Vietnam is becoming a popular choice of investors in dispute resolution. However, European investors in Vietnam repeatedly raised concerns that it is extremely difficult in practice to achieve the recognition and enforcement of foreign arbitral awards through the Vietnamese courts. Now the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) which is expected to take effect in 2018 has imposed a new two-tier investment court system (ICS) for investors-States dispute settlement (ISDS) instead of traditional arbitration-based ISDS. This paper focuses on analysing the compatibility between the ICS mechanism and Vietnam legal framework and current practice in recognition and enforcement of foreign arbitral awards, thereby proposing some recommendations for Vietnam’s preparation with the EVFTA ahead. |
| Date: | 2017–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1135&r=int |
| By: | Park, Joungho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kang, Boogyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Min, Jiyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Yun, ChiHyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Gwun, Kawon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Khon, Yevgeniy (Central Asia Institute for Strategic Studies) |
| Abstract: | Amid global economic uncertainties arising from prolonged oil prices, China’s economic slowdown, and increased protectionist US trade policies, the Central Asian governments are developing and pursuing individual eco-nomic development strategies which reflect their own socio-economic characteristics and key policy goals. Central Asia’s three resource-rich countries, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, have several common obstacles threatening further economic growth: inadequate transpor-tation and logistics networks due to land-locked locations, high dependency on primary commodity exports, among others. Thus their economic development strategies aim to pro-mote economic diversification for sustainable growth. The purpose of this study is to focus on Ka-zakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, ana-lyzing the new economic development strate-gies of these countries, and to discover oppor-tunities and demand for economic cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development Strategies; Major Central Asian Countries; Resource-rich countries; Economic Cooperation |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2017_025&r=int |
| By: | Häberli, Christian |
| Abstract: | r4d Working Paper by Christian Häberli |
| Abstract: | Recent economic treaties contain references to labour standards with increasing specificity and stringent enforcement mechanisms. However, despite evidence for continuing massive violations of workers’ rights, forced and child labour, these mechanisms are very seldom used. This article focuses on enforcement in respect of gross and continuing violations of so-called peremptory standards i.e. those generally recognised as norms from which no derogation is permitted (cogent law or ius cogens). It looks at a number of new trade and investment agreements, and conditional tariff preferences. Goods and services produced in violation of clearly peremptory standards not only raise the question of importer involvement. These violations may also cause trade distortions against which importers may take countermeasures, sometimes explicitly in cooperation with non-state stakeholders. Sanctions may consist, for instance, in suspensions of tariff concessions or outright import bans in response to labour standard violations creating trade and investment conditions. A possible barrier against sanctions are the non-discrimination rules enshrined in all economic treaties which seem to overprotect policy space and hence to also prevent, for instance, countermeasures against social dumping. This is particularly true for the rules framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) which has no social clauses, but also for economic treaties with few stringent commitments, and a dearth of case law. Adjudicators in litigation cases would then have to decide whether ius cogens does take precedence over WTO and other economic treaty rules. Even though this has never occurred, this article argues that when trade measures are taken against violations of cogent law, they will withstand legal challenges better than would appear from looking at comparable WTO cases involving public morals. At the same time, producers respecting these international bottom lines for employment policies can defend their treaty-enshrined market access rights against unilateral standard setting and protectionism in disguise. It is too early to contend that economic treaty implementation has become more holistic by adding social and environmental dumping to the list of trade distortions subject to trade remedies. Nonetheless, this article concludes that some peremptory labour standards have become easier to enforce. International Economic Treaty Law still protects against non-trade distorting sanctions. But the new venues described here can limit the race to the bottom, and contribute to sustainable employment even in countries needing ‘more’ rather than ‘better’ jobs. |
| Date: | 2017–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1137&r=int |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | Current technological developments in manufacturing are likely to lead to a partial reversal of the wave of fragmentation and global value chains that was at the core of the rise of North-South trade from 1990 onwards. At the same time, China – the main hub of the global-growth-cum-structural-change of that period - may attempt to extend the previous wave through its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-1742&r=int |
| By: | Rueda-Cantuche, Jose Manuel (JRC); Sousa, Nuno (DG Trade) |
| Abstract: | This analysis sheds new light on the gender-balance of the employment opportunities supported by extra-EU exports. This is done using a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model with the information provided by the WIOD-World Input-Output Database (Timmer et al., 2015) and the EXIOBASE-3 database (Stadler et al., 2017). On that basis we show that in 2011 almost 12 million women in the EU had jobs thanks to the exports of goods and services to the rest of the world. However the data also reveals that a gender gap to the disadvantage of women persisted as these jobs represented only 38% of the total employment in the EU supported by exports to the rest of the world. The analysis suggests that such gender gap is largely due to the concentration of female employment in the less export-oriented sectors, notably in services. |
| Keywords: | International trade; gender; Multi-Regional Input-Output tables |
| JEL: | F19 |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2017_003&r=int |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura |
| Abstract: | The adaptation of crops, agricultural techniques, and farm size to the new environments ushered in by colonialism help identify the sources of long-term development. This paper is a simplified approach to this adaptation process. It analyzes the relative factor endowments (land and labor) based on the timing of settlement to study the regional differences in the adoption of improved agricultural techniques in Constantine at the beginning of the 1900s. During the colonial years, the Algerian farming system diverged into large estates reliant on indigenous wage labor and sharecropping. As fertile land became increasingly scarce, the ability to participate in the grain export market depended on the capability of engaging in new and non-labor saving agricultural techniques. The results demonstrate that innovation in cash-crop production depended on the abundance of indigenous labor but also required a significant capital investment to offset the worse land quality. Thus, access constraints to agricultural advancement help explain the Algerian origins of colonial land inequality and the failure of colonial institutions to create a small-peasant settler economy. |
| Keywords: | North Africa; Land Use; Land Ownership and Tenure; Adaptation; Technological Change; Economic Development; Agriculture |
| JEL: | Q16 Q15 O1 N5 |
| Date: | 2017–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:26085&r=int |
| By: | Giménez-Gómez, José-Manuel; Yabibal Mulualem Walle; Zergawu, Yitagesu Zewdu |
| Abstract: | The current migration and refugee crisis in Europe requires an understanding of the different migration drivers beyond the well-known economic determinants. In this paper, we view migration from a broader human security perspective and analyze the determinants of regular and irregular migration flows from Africa to Europe for the period 1990-2014. Our results show that, in addition to economic determinants, a combination of push and pull factors influence the migration decisions of individuals. In particular, rising political persecution, ethnic cleansing, human rights violations, political instability and civil conflicts in African source countries are all significantly associated with increased migration flows into European destination countries. Therefore, our results underscore the need for the EU and European countries to collaborate with the source countries, not only in terms of supporting economic development in the source countries, but also in promoting human security: human rights, democracy, peace and social stability. |
| Keywords: | international migration,asylum seeker,refugee crisis,human security,Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:330&r=int |
| By: | Falilou Fall; Boingotlo Gasealahwe |
| Abstract: | Deepening regional integration within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will raise potential growth for all member countries. Integrated economies will increase market size, trade opportunities and improve resource allocation across member countries. Key pillars of functioning regional integration are the free circulation of goods and services, mobility of workers and interconnected infrastructure. To boost regional integration, remaining tariff barriers and non-tariffs barriers should be removed. Ensuring greater compliance to agreements by SADC members will also facilitate intra-regional trade and cross-investments. More co-operation between competition authorities should facilitate harmonisation of competition rules in particular in services and transport-related services which would ease circulation of good and services. The other key pillars of regional integration (industrial policy, infrastructure, investment, financial integration and tax) are also reviewed. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, regional integration, SADC, South Africa, trade, trade agreements |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F53 O24 O25 |
| Date: | 2017–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1450-en&r=int |
| By: | Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Phume, Maphelane |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the relationship between total factor productivity (TFP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in a country with skills shortage. South Africa is used as a case study. Literature is inconclusive on how FDI should affect TFP. This paper shows that it is important to account for the interactivity between FDI and human capital when assessing the effects of FDI on TFP. Moreover, the empirical results show that, contrary to countries with abundance of skills, in countries with skills shortage, it is in fact the change in stock of human capital - or human capital accumulation – that matters in determining the effects of FDI on TFP. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, foreign direct investment, human capital, skills shortage |
| JEL: | C10 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83288&r=int |
| By: | Muendler, Marc-Andreas |
| Abstract: | Trade and technological change continually alter the workplace and labor-market outcomes, with consequences for economy-wide welfare and the distribution of real incomes. This report assesses the state of economic research into those areas, with a particular focus on empirical methodologies and their adequacy for an assessment of general-equilibrium outcomes. While difference-in-differences techniques and instrumental- variable approaches provide answers, they exhibit shortcomings that limit conclusiveness. Recent advances in structural estimation of multi-country and multisector models that allow for reallocation frictions in domestic labor markets hold promise to deliver more definite empirical answers. Interestingly, a conclusion from a two-decades old strand of literature seems to be vindicated by conclusions from a related recent literature: roughly one-quarter of changes in labor-market outcomes (wage inequality then and manufacturing job losses now) was predicted by trade integration and roughly one-third by technological change. The remainder of changes in labor-market outcomes remains unaccounted. The report offers candidate explanations, rooted in recent evidence, how interactions between globalization, technological progress, and structural change may account for that remainder. |
| Keywords: | trade,current account balance,automation,choice of technology,industrial structure and structural change,labor-market outcomes,employment,jobs,wages,inequality |
| JEL: | F16 F32 J23 J24 L16 O14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201715&r=int |
| By: | Zhou, Haiwen |
| Abstract: | While financial or trade integration between countries may increase the size of the market and helps the adoption of more advanced technologies, will it also increase the level of urban unemployment for a developing country? In this model, there is unemployment in the urban sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Financial firms provide capital to manufacturing firms and they also engage in oligopolistic competition. We show that an increase in the wage rate in the manufacturing sector changes neither the level of technology nor the level of employment in the manufacturing sector. While financial or trade integration between developing countries leads manufacturing firms to adopt more advanced technologies, the level and rate of employment in the manufacturing sector will not deteriorate. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, economic development, financial integration, international trade, choice of technology |
| JEL: | D43 F12 O10 |
| Date: | 2017–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83313&r=int |
| By: | Joel CARIOLLE (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Cyril CHALENDARD; Anne-Marie GEOURJON (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Bertrand LAPORTE (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)) |
| Abstract: | Customs administrations in developing countries increasingly use risk-based techniques relying on data mining and statistical scoring. By demonstrating the value of using data analysis techniques to orient frontline controls so as to facilitate legal trade and combat fraud more effectively, these projects have helped promote a cultural change in these organizations. However, these risk management techniques may prove to be ineffective in assessing fraud risks based only on frauds detected by customs inspectors. In a context of moral hazard and low-performing customs administration, one way to address this weakness is to expand the approach by relying on other sources of information such as discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics. Several studies use these statistical discrepancies (mirror data) to identify fraudulent declarations and estimate their effects. By comparing Gabon's import customs data with discrepancies in its bilateral trade data, this paper stresses the usefulness of simultaneously analyzing customs fraud records and mirror trade statistics data. Such an analysis helps quantifying undetected fraud and therefore constitutes a valuable tool to target ex post audits. Then, based on the combination of these databases, the paper defines indicators to monitor the performance of customs controls. |
| Keywords: | Customs risk analysis, Performance of customs authorities, Customs fraud, Tax evasion, Administrative data, Mirror analysis. |
| JEL: | F13 D73 K42 H83 H26 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1899&r=int |
| By: | Jannick Damgaard; Thomas Elkjaer |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses three types of geographical decoupling in foreign direct investment (FDI), i.e., challenges when using traditional FDI data as a proxy for real economic integration between economies: (i) large bilateral asymmetries between inward and outward FDI, (ii) the role of special purpose entities (SPEs), and (iii) the effect of moving from immediate counterpart to ultimate investing economy (UIE). A unique global FDI network is estimated, where SPEs are removed and FDI positions are broken down by the UIE. Total inward FDI in the new network is reduced by one-third, and financial centers are less dominant. |
| Date: | 2017–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/258&r=int |