nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2017‒09‒10
24 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000-2015: Synopsis By Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David
  2. Trade and Investment in the Global Economy By James E. Anderson; Mario Larch; Yoto V. Yotov
  3. The impact of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on Moroccan foreign trade: Comparison between developed and developing countries By Mustapha Khouilid; Abdellah Echaoui
  4. The Distance Effect in Banking and Trade By Michael Brei; Goetz von Peter
  5. Has the Offshore Service Network Been Expanded by Japanese Firms? By ITO Yukiko
  6. Exchange-rate Volatility and International Trade Performance: Evidence from 12 African Countries By BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; GELAN, Abera
  7. Quality Pricing-to-Market By Raphael Auer; Thomas Chaney; Philip Sauré
  8. Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism By Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta
  9. The impact of foreign direct investments on regional air pollution in the Republic of Korea: A way ahead to achieve the green growth strategy? By Hille, Erik
  10. Taking One for the Team: Shocks at Destination and Households' Supply of Migrants By Fajardo, Gustavo; Gutiérrez, Emilio; Larreguy, Horacio
  11. International Value-Added Linkages in Development Accounting By Robert Zymek; Alejandro Cunat
  12. Citizenship, Migration and Opportunity By Kanbur, Ravi
  13. Endogenous technology, matching, and labor unions: Does low-skilled immigration affect the technological alignment of the host country? By Cords, Dario
  14. Classical or Gravity? Which trade model best matches the UK facts? By Minford, Patrick; Xu, Yongdeng
  15. The Rise and Fall of U.S. Low-Skilled Immigration By Gordon Hanson; Chen Liu; Craig McIntosh
  16. Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and U.S. Immigration By Parag Mahajan; Dean Yang
  17. Malaysia-Japan Commodity Trade and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes By BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; Aftab, Muhammad
  18. Intangible Assets and the Organization of Global Supply Chains By S. Bolatto; A. Naghavi; G. Ottaviano; K. Zajc Kejzar
  19. Some global effects of President Trump’s economic program By Warwick J. McKibbin; Andrew Stoeckel
  21. La politique commerciale au service de la politique climatique By Lionel Fontagné; Jean Fouré
  22. Global cities, connectivity, and the location choice of MNC regional headquarters By Rene Belderbos; Helen S. Du; Anthony Goerzen
  23. Tariffs, R&D, and Two Merger Policies By ARZANDEH, Mehdi; GUNAY, Hikmet
  24. Política comercial agrícola: nivel, costos y efectos de la protección en Colombia By Juan José Perfetti; Jesús Botero; Sandra Oviedo; David Forero; Sebastián Higuera; Manuel Correa; José García

  1. By: Bouët, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David
    Abstract: Although food security has long been recognized as a universal human right, 795 million people worldwide remain undernourished. International trade can contribute to reducing such food insecurity, but the precise role that international trade policy should play in improving food and nutrition security remains the subject of a long-standing and intense debate. Many argue that countries must pursue the goal of food self-sufficiency to secure local production of agricultural items and local populations’ access to food. Food self-sufficiency implies import restrictions to support local production. Others argue that the best way to secure populations’ access to food is to remove all barriers to trade. In this line of thinking, free trade will more effectively increase the global production of agricultural and food products and secure the cheapest access to these items. Agriculture, Development, and the Global Trading System: 2000–2015 is devoted to the complex relationship between the global trading system and food security. The contributors focus on two important elements of the relationship between the trading system and food security: (1) the Doha Development Agenda of the World Trade Organization (WTO); and (2) whether food price volatility can be managed through trade instruments. They then offer policy recommendations for how the global trading system can foster food security in the future.
    Keywords: food security, volatility, international trade, agricultural policies, trade policies, World Trade Organization (WTO)
    Date: 2017
  2. By: James E. Anderson; Mario Larch; Yoto V. Yotov
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic multi-country trade model with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology capital. The model nests structural gravity sub-systems for FDI and trade, with accumulation/decumulation of phyisical and technology capital in transition to the steady state. The empirical importance of the FDI channel is demonstrated comparing actual aggregate cross-section data for 89 countries in 2011 to a hypothetical world without FDI. The gains from FDI amount to 9\% of world's welfare and to 11% of world's trade, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI substitute for export trade in the results.
    JEL: F10 F43
    Date: 2017–08
  3. By: Mustapha Khouilid (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Université Mohamed V - Souissi); Abdellah Echaoui (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Université Mohamed V - Souissi)
    Abstract: The world economy is still far from the ideal model of a barrier-free market, freed from any barriers to trade. In this paper, we will try to analyse the impact of non-tariff measures on Moroccan exportations. The review of the literature shows that the effect of non-tariff measures on international trade exceeds the tariff ones. In order to analyse empirically the impact of non-tariff measures on Moroccan foreign trade, we used the elasticity of imported demand and an estimated gravitational equation for a sample of 28 countries of different levels of development. Our database consists of 4242 tariff lines during the period 2000-2015. The results show that non-tariff measures negatively affect Moroccan foreign trade. Exporting sectors are not affected to the same degree and suffer more in trade with economically similar countries (Developing countries) than in trade with developed nations.
    Keywords: Gravity equation,International trade,Non-tariff measures,Ad-valorem tariff equivalents
    Date: 2017–05
  4. By: Michael Brei; Goetz von Peter
    Abstract: The empirical gravity literature finds geographical distance to be a large and growing obstacle to trade, contradicting the popular notion that globalization heralds "the end of geography". This distance puzzle disappears, however, when measuring the effect of cross-border distance relative to that of domestic distance (Yotov, 2012). We uncover the same result for banking when comparing cross-border positions with domestic credit, using the most extensive dataset on global bank linkages between countries. The role of distance remains substantial for trade as well as for banking where transport cost is immaterial - pointing to the role of information frictions as a common driver. A second contribution is to show that the forces of globalization are also evident in other, less prominent, parts of the gravity framework.
    Keywords: globalization, gravity framework, distance, international trade, international banking
    JEL: F14 F34 G21
    Date: 2017–08
  5. By: ITO Yukiko
    Abstract: Using the Basic Survey on Overseas Business Activities and the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) covering 1996-2014, we document how headquarter-foreign subsidiary network in service (hereafter offshore service network) has been expanded relative to the network of manufacturing. The main question is whether service network (inputs and outputs) co-move with the manufacturing network of Japanese multinational firms. This analysis intends to clarify the "trade co-movement puzzle," or the missing propagation mechanism between trade and economy in macroeconomic research. We break down the affiliates' purchasing modes into local sellers and imports and, in the same manner, their supplying modes into local buyers and exports. Then we aggregate these flows for each country. In contrast to Johnson (2014) which found "near-zero correlations" between goods and services on the country level, we suggest evidence for co-movement of manufacturing and service, transmitting international shocks through bilateral trades.
    Date: 2017–08
  6. By: BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; GELAN, Abera
    Abstract: In this paper, we study a sample of twelve African countries to examine the impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their trade flows. In order to distinguish the distinct impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their exports and imports, both in the short-run and long-run, we use the bounds-testing approach. We find that while exchange rate volatility affects trade flows of many of the countries in our sample in the short run, the long-run effects were restricted only on the exports of five countries and on the imports of only one country. The level of economic activity in the world and at home were identified to be major determinants of exports and imports, respectively.
    Keywords: Africa, Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Volatility
    JEL: F31
    Date: 2017–08–07
  7. By: Raphael Auer; Thomas Chaney; Philip Sauré
    Abstract: This paper analyses firm's pricing-to-market decisions in vertically differentiated industries. We first present a model featuring firms that sell goods of heterogeneous quality levels to consumers who are heterogeneous in their income and thus their marginal willingness to pay for quality increments. We derive closed-form solutions for the unique pricing game under costly international trade. The comparative statics highlight how firms' pricing-to-market decisions are shaped by the interaction of consumer income and good quality. We derive two testable predictions. First, the relative price of high qualities compared to low qualities increases with the income of the destination market. Second, the rate of cost pass-through into consumer prices falls with quality if destination market income is sufficiently high. We present evidence in support of these two predictions based on a dataset of prices, sales, and product attributes in the European car industry.
    Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, intra-industry trade, monopolistic competition, pricing-to-market, vertical differentiation
    JEL: E3 E41 F12 F4 L13
    Date: 2017–08
  8. By: Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta
    Abstract: This study employs interactive quantile regressions to assess the conditional role of foreign aid in reducing the potentially negative effect of terrorism on fuel exports in 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilateral and multilateral aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. Interactive quantile regressions are used. The following findings are established. First, the effects of terrorism are both positive and negative across quantiles and specifications, with the impact most apparent in the highest and lowest quantiles. Second, while bilateral aid consistently decreases (increases) fuel exports at the top (bottom) quantiles, multilateral aid regularly decreases fuel exports in the top quantiles. Third, for negative thresholds in the 50th quartile and 90th decile, interaction effects between bilateral aid and terrorism dynamics are overwhelmingly not significant. Conversely, for transnational terrorism, the interaction effects between multilateral aid and terrorism dynamics significantly have negative thresholds. The hypothesis of a positive threshold is only confirmed for transnational terrorism and multilateral aid at the 90th decile. Justifications for unexpected signs and implications for fuel export policy and the management of multinational companies are discussed. This study contributes to the literature on the role of external flows in reducing the negative externalities of terrorism on development outcomes.
    Keywords: Exports; Foreign Aid; Terrorism; Natural Resources; Development
    JEL: F23 F35 F40 O40 Q34
    Date: 2017–01
  9. By: Hille, Erik (HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management)
    Abstract: Can FDI help to reduce regional air pollution emissions in Korea? Given the proclamation of a far-reaching national green growth strategy that requires a shift in both public and private investments, this paper addresses the need for empirical estimates on the environmental consequences of FDI inflows into Korea. Using a simultaneous equations model the impacts of FDI inflows are decomposed into direct as well as indirect scale, composition, and technique effects. Thereby, the analysis utilizes panel data on six air pollutants in 16 Korean provinces and self-governing cities for the time period 2000 to 2011. The estimation results show that FDI inflows concurrently stimulate regional economic growth and reduce air pollution intensities. However, the total level of air pollution emissions mostly remains unchanged. While confirming the findings of the existing national level research on the FDI growth relationship in Korea, the results are partly contrary to the respective earlier findings on the FDI environment nexus. Given Korea’s high level of development paired with the aforementioned impact on economic growth and air pollution intensities, foreign investments are, therefore, regarded as one potential pillar to achieve the goals of the green growth strategy.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investments; green growth; air pollution; decomposition analysis; Republic of Korea; province level
    JEL: F21 O44 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2017–08–30
  10. By: Fajardo, Gustavo; Gutiérrez, Emilio; Larreguy, Horacio
    Abstract: We study how unemployment shocks in the United States affect Mexican households’ migration decisions. We emphasize households at origin (as op-posed to individuals) as the decisionmaking units for migration decisions. We show that negative changes in US labor market conditions, which are diffused by household members at destination to those at origin, lead to heterogeneous migration responses by Mexican households that have members abroad. We argue that this heterogeneous response is driven by the relative magnitudes of income and substitution effects after a negative employment shock in the United States. While the income effect dominates the substitution effect for poor households, the opposite holds for richer households. These results also inform the literature on selection patterns in international migration, which suggests a new channel through which negative shocks in the host economy negatively affect the skill composition of subsequent migrants.
    Keywords: Economía, Investigación socioeconómica, Trabajo y protección social,
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Robert Zymek; Alejandro Cunat
    Abstract: We generalise the traditional development-accounting framework to an open economy setting. In addition to factor endowments and productivity, relative factor costs emerge as a source of real-income variation across countries. These are determined by bilateral trade frictions (which underpin the patterns of international value-added linkages) and the global distribution of factor endowments and final expenditures. We use information on endowments, trade balances and value-added trade to back out the relative factor costs of 40 major economies in a theory-consistent manner. This reduces the variation in residual TFP required to explain the observed per-capita income differences by more than one half.
    Keywords: world input-output, development accounting, transfer effect
    JEL: E01 F15 F40
    Date: 2017–07
  12. By: Kanbur, Ravi
    Abstract: The basic global distributional facts of inequality within and between countries are structuring a range of debates on policy issues which have analytical import. This paper raises three such questions: (1) Should Middle Income Countries like India continue to receive concessional development assistance from agencies like the World Bank? (2) Should the borders of richer countries be more open than they currently are to economic migration from poorer countries? (3) How does the equality of opportunity discourse within a country translate to equality of opportunity in a global perspective? But these questions appear not to have been as thoroughly investigated in the capability framework as their urgency and importance demands. They are worthy of deep and sustained investigation.
    Date: 2017–08
  13. By: Cords, Dario
    Abstract: In recent years, Germany and other European countries face the strongest immigration flow in their history. Experts unanimously agree that one of the core factors of a successful social integration is the labor market participation of the new arrivals. This paper investigates the impact of low-skilled immigration on a unionized economy with labor market frictions. It especially examines how immigration affects the technology choice of firms and, thereby, the technological alignment of the host country. The labor market is characterized by heterogeneity on both sides of the market. Within this framework, it can be shown that low-skilled immigration encourages firms to invest more in a basic technology, which leads to a deterioration of the technology level in the whole economy. It can be further shown that policies, which improve the access of already existing low-skilled immigrants to the labor market counteract the effect that is triggered by an increase in low-skilled immigration.
    Keywords: Immigration,Technology Choice,Search and Matching,Labor Unions,Skillheterogeneity
    JEL: F22 J24 J31 J51 J61 J64
    Date: 2017
  14. By: Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School); Xu, Yongdeng (Cardiff Business School)
    Abstract: We examine the empirical evidence bearing on whether UK trade is governed by a Classical model or by a Gravity model, using annual data from 1965 to 2015 and the method of Indirect Inference which has very large power in this application. The Gravity model here differs from the Classical model in assuming imperfect competition and a positive effect of total trade on productivity. We found that the Classical model passed the test rather easily, and that the Gravity model did so too but at a rather lower level of probability. As the gravity elements are strengthened the model's probability falls and vice versa. The two models' policy implications are also similar.
    Keywords: Bootstrap, indirect inference, gravity model, classical trade model, UK trade
    Date: 2017–08
  15. By: Gordon Hanson; Chen Liu; Craig McIntosh
    Abstract: From the 1970s to the early 2000s, the United States experienced an epochal wave of low-skilled immigration. Since the Great Recession, however, U.S. borders have become a far less active place when it comes to the net arrival of foreign workers. The number of undocumented immigrants has declined in absolute terms, while the overall population of low-skilled, foreign-born workers has remained stable. We examine how the scale and composition of low-skilled immigration in the United States have evolved over time, and how relative income growth and demographic shifts in the Western Hemisphere have contributed to the recent immigration slowdown. Because major source countries for U.S. immigration are now seeing and will continue to see weak growth of the labor supply relative to the United States, future immigration rates of young, low-skilled workers appear unlikely to rebound, whether or not U.S. immigration policies tighten further.
    JEL: J11 J15 J61
    Date: 2017–08
  16. By: Parag Mahajan; Dean Yang
    Abstract: How readily do potential migrants respond to increased returns to migration? Even if origin areas become less attractive vis-à-vis migration destinations, fixed costs can prevent increased migration. We examine migration responses to hurricanes, which reduce the attractiveness of origin locations. Restricted-access U.S. Census data allows precise migration measures and analysis of more migrant-origin countries. Hurricanes increase U.S. immigration, with the effect increasing in the size of prior migrant stocks. Large migrant networks reduce fixed costs by facilitating legal immigration from hurricane-affected source countries. Hurricane-induced immigration can be fully accounted for by new legal permanent residents (“green card” holders).
    JEL: F22 O15 Q54
    Date: 2017–08
  17. By: BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; Aftab, Muhammad
    Abstract: Asymmetry analysis is a new norm in applied research and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. In this paper we investigate the asymmetric response of the trade balance of each of the 60 industries that trade between Malaysia and Japan. We find short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of 50 industries (including the two largest industries), short-run adjustment asymmetry in 47 industry, and short-run impact asymmetry in 30 industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects lasted into the long run only in limited number of industries. Results were industry-specific at best.
    Keywords: Nonlinear ARDL, Asymmetry, 60 Industries, Malaysia, Japan
    JEL: F31
    Date: 2017–01–16
  18. By: S. Bolatto; A. Naghavi; G. Ottaviano; K. Zajc Kejzar
    Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of intangible assets in sequential supply chains and the importance of their appropriability in the organizational decision of firms. We focus on the quality of intellectual property rights (IPR) institutions, which on top of the hold-up problem between a supplier and the final producer entails an additional risk of imitation as technology may leak to competing producers in the market. The level of IPR enforcement in the location of a supplier can therefore play a crucial role in determining the decision of a final good producer whether to outsource or integrate a particular stage of production. The analysis is performed with Antràs and Chor (2013) in the background, where the position of the input along the supply chain, i.e. its upstreamness, and the degree of sequential complementarity of stage-specific inputs influence the organizational strategy of firms through the incentive structure of supplier investments. Our findings show that introducing intangible assets in sequential supply chain may have the opposite effect of contractibility on outsourcing decision, where only tangible property rights are considered. We argue therefore that the risk of imitation is a relevant feature that needs to be accounted for in the incomplete contract literature. Our theoretical predictions are validated on Slovenian firm-level data.
    JEL: F12 F14 F21 F23 D23 L22 L23 L24 O34
    Date: 2017–08
  19. By: Warwick J. McKibbin; Andrew Stoeckel
    Abstract: The economic agenda of the Trump Administration, if implemented, will have large and long-lasting impacts on the US and global economies. This paper uses a global economic model to assess the consequences of President Trump’s likely economic program on the world economy. The model has 17 major economies and regions each with six sectors of production and trade as well as a capital goods producing sector. The paper shows how President Trump’s economic policies affect the global economy through trade and capital flows induced by increases in global interest rates. Using a consistent global economic model shows the contradictions in the aims of the President’s economic program particularly in the effects on the manufacturing sector. In the medium-term the policies imply increased likelihood of trade protection ultimately causing a recession.
    Date: 2017–08
  20. By: Safaa Tabit (Université Mohammed 5 Agdal); Charaf-Eddine Moussir (Université Mohammed 5 Agdal)
    Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the impact of MRA's remittances on economic growth by using two models VAR and ECM over the period 1975-2014. The results conclude that MRA's remittances represent a determinant of economic growth, in the short term, with an elasticity low compared to the long-term behavior. Given the impulse responses analysis, a shock on MRA's transfers has a positive impact on GDP, investment and consumption.
    Keywords: Economic growth,Remittances,VAR,Error correction model,Moroccans resident abroad
    Date: 2017
  21. By: Lionel Fontagné (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Jean Fouré (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)
    Abstract: S’il constitue une avancée, l’Accord de Paris, entré en vigueur en novembre 2016, pose un certain nombre de questions, notamment quant à la responsabilité « commune mais différenciée » – qui se traduit par des engagements très variables d’un pays signataire à l’autre –, mais aussi concernant l’articulation entre politique climatique et politique commerciale. Pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), une politique commerciale ferait-elle mieux qu’une politique climatique ? À défaut, pourrait-elle inciter à des engagements plus ambitieux de réduction des émissions ? Cette Lettre montre, à partir de simulations d’un modèle dynamique de l’économie mondiale développé au CEPII, que la politique commerciale seule n’est pas un bon outil pour limiter les émissions de CO2, mais qu’elle peut venir compléter une politique plus ambitieuse.
    Keywords: protectionnisme, gaz à effet de serre, commerce international,climat
    Date: 2017–01–25
  22. By: Rene Belderbos; Helen S. Du; Anthony Goerzen
    Abstract: One of the manifestations of the increasing diversity in multinational corporation (MNC) operations is the growing importance of regional headquarters (RHQs). RHQs assume an intermediary, bridging role between the corporate headquarters and local affiliates and other actors in their respective regions. They can have a coordination and control (i.e., administrative) mandate as well as an opportunity seeking (i.e., entrepreneurial) mandate. Since these mandates require RHQs to interact with various internal and external entities and exchange knowledge across distant locations, MNCs tend to locate their RHQs in highly connected “global cities” because these places allow the firm to economize on spatial transaction costs. In this paper, we explore the interplay between geographic distance, RHQ roles, and connectivity by analyzing which global city is selected by an MNC when establishing an RHQ. We argue that there is substantial heterogeneity among MNCs in the importance they attach to city connectivity—which we conceptualize as encompassing the effects of the international flows of people, knowledge, and services—because the connectivity needs of an RHQ varies in relation to its corporate mandate as well as to the geographic configuration of the MNC’s activities. Our mixed logit analysis of the location choices for 1,031 newly established RHQs in 48 global cities between 2003 and 2012 provides qualified support for the notion that the relationship between city connectivity and location choice is more pronounced for RHQs with an entrepreneurial role. Although the geographic distance of a city to the MNC’s regional affiliates discourages the establishment of RHQs with administrative roles, distance effects disappear when the city is highly connected. Moreover, well connected cities are able to attract MNCs’ RHQs from distant countries-of-origin.
    Keywords: connectivity, geographic distance, global cities, location choice, regional headquarters
    Date: 2017–07
  23. By: ARZANDEH, Mehdi; GUNAY, Hikmet
    Abstract: In an international Cournot oligopoly model, we compare two different merger policies when firms are merging endogenously and engage in research and development (R&D). In the benchmark model, countries set optimal tariff levels but do not have merger policy. If ex-ante identical firms merge internationally, they have an ex-post cost advantage over the outsiders due to tariff savings. This gives the merger an incentive to increase its R&D investment, which increases the cost dispersion further; therefore, the merger paradox, where each firm wants to be an outsider, disappears when R&D is efficient. As a result, we find different equilibrium market structures depending on the efficiency of R&D. In the second part, we compare two different merger policies, one that puts emphasis on welfare (roughly the Canadian merger policy) and another one that puts emphasis on consumer surplus (roughly the European Union’s merger policy). We show that under the “welfare-increasing” merger policy, monopoly is the equilibrium market structure when R&D is very efficient. This explains why a merger, which created a monopoly, was approved in Canada. As R&D becomes less efficient, the equilibrium market structures become less concentrated under the two different merger policies. Each merger policy can be global welfare maximizing depending on the efficiency of R&D; however, the “consumer-surplus-increasing” merger policy is optimal for a wider range of parameters.
    Keywords: Competition Policy, Merger Policy, R&D, Endogenous Mergers, Tariff, Trade, Policy, Cournot oligopoly, Merger Paradox
    Date: 2017–09
  24. By: Juan José Perfetti; Jesús Botero; Sandra Oviedo; David Forero; Sebastián Higuera; Manuel Correa; José García
    Abstract: Tras la ola de procesos de apertura comercial en el mundo, en las décadas finales del siglo pasado, el análisis de la política comercial pareció haber perdido importancia, tornándose incluso aparentemente irrelevante, tanto en el ámbito académico, como en el político. Dos hechos determinaron, sin embargo, la resurgencia del tema: el primero, el considerable incremento en la aplicación de medidas no arancelarias al comercio internacional, y segundo la emergencia de nuevos modelos, nuevas metodologías y especialmente mejores fuente de información, que permiten una mejor comprensión, tanto de los efectos de los acuerdos bilaterales, como de la implementación unilateral de políticas comerciales. La protección arancelaria y para-arancelaria ha sido una pieza fundamental de la política comercial agrícola del país. Sus resultados han sido, sin embargo, decepcionantes: en la última década, el valor de la producción agrícola a precios básicos ha pasado de representar el 5.9% del PIB en 2005, a 4.6% en 2014. Las exportaciones, por su parte, a precios básicos, han pasado del 1% del PIB al 0.6%, mostrando inequívocos signos de bajo dinamismo. Dados los diversos impactos derivados de la protección al sector agropecuario colombiano, Fedesarrollo en asocio con la Universidad EAFIT, adelantaron el presente estudio que tiene como objetivo establecer la situación actual de la protección agrícola en Colombia y los efectos y los costos que ella representa para los sectores agrícola y agroindustrial así como para los consumidores finales. El estudio consta, además de la introducción, de nueve capítulos. En el primer capítulo se revisa el tema del impacto teórico que la protección tiene sobre los sectores protegidos, sobre la economía en su conjunto y sobre el bienestar de la sociedad. En el segundo se presenta una breve descripción de la evolución de la política comercial agrícola desde mediados del siglo XX. En el tercero se presenta la evolución de la producción y el comercio agropecuario y agroindustrial del país durante las últimas décadas y se detallan las principales características del comercio agrícola de exportación e importación. En el capítulo cuatro se analiza, para el período 1990-2015, la evolución del arancel nominal de los bienes agropecuarios y agroindustriales, el comportamiento de las franjas de precios para algunos de estos productos y se calcula el arancel efectivo de las importaciones agropecuarias y agroindustriales. En el capítulo cinco se hace un análisis de la evolución de las medidas no arancelarias (técnicas y no técnicas) aplicadas a las importaciones agropecuarias y agroindustriales adoptadas en Colombia desde la liberación comercial de los años noventa. En el capítulo seis se presentan los resultados de los principales estudios realizados recientemente sobre los niveles de la protección a la agricultura colombiana y los niveles de apoyo recibidos por los productores agropecuarios. En el capítulo siete se hace un análisis sobre los efectos de la protección sobre la producción, el comercio y el consumo de los principales productos importables agropecuarios y agroindustriales. En el capítulo ocho se hace una breve revisión de literatura reciente sobre el uso de modelos de equilibrio general computable en el análisis de políticas comerciales y se presenta el modelo que EAFIT ha desarrollado para medir estos efectos y los resultados y las conclusiones básicas de los ejercicios realizados sobre el manejo de la política comercial agropecuaria en Colombia. Finalmente, en el capítulo nueve se realiza una simulación alternativa de la eliminación total y parcial de las medidas arancelarias y no arancelarias en la economía, siguiendo los ejercicios presentados en el capítulo anterior, utilizando el modelo de equilibrio general computable de Fedesarrollo, distinto al utilizado en el capítulo ocho, con el fin de darle robustez y consistencia a los resultados encontrados.
    Keywords: Política Comercial Agrícola, Política Agrícola, Agricultura, Agroindustria, Sector Agropecuario, Productos Agropecuarios, Aranceles, Medidas no arancelarias, Modelos de Equilibrio General Computable. Colombia
    JEL: O13 Q17 Q18 D58
    Date: 2017–08–29

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