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on International Trade |
| By: | Ricardo Lopez (Brandeis University); Kathleen McQueeney (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs sector-level measures of trade facilitation in foreign countries to examine the effect of reducing the costs required to import abroad on export activity of Chilean plants. The results show that decreases in the number of documents required to import and in the number of days required to import in international markets significantly increase the probability of exporting of Chilean plants, while a decrease in the number of documents required to import increases plants’ export intensity. The estimates also show that the effect of improved foreign trade facilitation is larger in sectors with relatively low foreign tariffs. |
| Keywords: | Exporting, Trade Facilitation, Cost to Import, Plant-Level Data, Chile |
| JEL: | F14 L60 O54 D22 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brd:wpaper:112&r=int |
| By: | Oana Cristina Popovici (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy); Adrian Cantemir Călin (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to evaluate weather domestic or foreign investments are involved in the promotion of exports and imports in eight of the newest European Union member states. We apply the dynamic panel data model for identifying the determinants of both exports and imports in the period 1999-2013. Our main result point that there is a complementary relationship between FDI and both exports and imports. The EU membership is significant for the expansion of the trade activity, but is more relevant for the export activity than for the import one. |
| Keywords: | dynamic panel model, export, import, FDI, domestic investment |
| JEL: | C36 F14 F21 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:16&r=int |
| By: | Amiti, Mary; Dai, Mi; Feenstra, Robert; Romalis, John |
| Abstract: | China's rapid rise in the global economy following its 2001 WTO entry has raised questions about its economic impact on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the U.S. market and potential consumer benefits. We find that the China trade shock reduced the U.S. manufacturing price index by 7.6 percent between 2000 and 2006. In principle, this consumer welfare gain could be driven by two distinct policy changes that occurred with WTO entry. The first, which has received much attention in the literature, is the U.S. granting permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China, effectively removing the threat of China facing very high tariffs on its exports to the U.S. A second, new channel we identify is China reducing its own input tariffs. Our results show that China's lower input tariffs increased its imported inputs, boosting Chinese firms' productivity and their export values and varieties. Lower input tariffs also reduced Chinese export prices to the U.S. market. In contrast, PNTR had no effect on Chinese productivity nor export prices, but did increase Chinese entry into the U.S. export market. We find that at least two-thirds of the China WTO effect on the U.S. price index of manufactured goods was through China lowering its own tariffs on intermediate inputs. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12076&r=int |
| By: | Alim Rosyadi, Saiful; Widodo, Tri |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze the possible impacts of the US import tariff against China on global economy. The GTAP model is implemented. The simulation scenarios depicted short-run effects of full-protection and manufacturing protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. On global level, the policy was projected to lead to decline in GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare; and increase in trade balance for United States and China. Trade diversion phenomena would occur, predicting steep decline in bilateral trade between the two countries and increasing export towards their third trading partners. |
| Keywords: | Donald Trump, Tariff Increase, GTAP Model |
| JEL: | F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2017–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79493&r=int |
| By: | Judit Rariga (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to present new empirical evidence on the characteristics of service trader firms using a novel dataset for Hungary. In the period of slowing growth of goods trade, services, which are more resilient to cycles and are growing steadily since the crisis, might open new alternatives for foreign trade expansion. By using firm level data for the period 2006-2014, this paper documents a series of stylized facts as follows. First, services exporters or goods and services exporters (bi-exporters) are even fewer than goods exporters, but they are present in almost all major sectors of the economy. Even manufacturing firms trade in services. Second, average yearly export values are higher for bi-exporters, both in services and goods. Third, services exporters outperform goods exporters in various dimensions: they are larger in terms of employment, give higher wages, have higher labor and total factor productivity. The effect of exporting slightly differs by industries and it is more pronounced for SMEs than for large companies. Service traders increase their productivity before starting to export and increase it further after entering foreign markets. Lastly, there is also some evidence on switching trader status. Earlier services exporter status is positively correlated with future services exporter status and bi-exporter status, indicating that firms might be willing to diversify their export portfolio in the goods-services dimension and not only along product/service type and destination country, as documented earlier. Most of the above findings prevail for importing as well. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Services, Firm-level evidence |
| JEL: | F14 F19 F23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:opaper:2017/130&r=int |
| By: | Andritzky, Jochen; Kassner, Bernhard; Reuter, Wolf Heinrich |
| Abstract: | China's economy, the second largest in the world, is undergoing a fundamental transition. Its transition from a strong focus on investment and exports towards a larger share of consumption could have important ramifications for China's trading partners. Using China as a case study, this paper deploys a sectoral input-output (IO) analysis to take into account higher-round spillovers from a reduction in import demand or a shift in the composition of the Chinese economy. This approach demonstrates strong indirect effects that exceed by far the initial shock from direct trade links, reflecting China's integration into a closely knit global value chain. The result suggests that the ongoing transition in China will have important effects on the global economy. |
| Keywords: | Shock propagation,Trade channel,Input-Output,China |
| JEL: | F14 C67 F47 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:102016&r=int |
| By: | Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of globalization on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices in three core eurozone countries. To this end, we consider various indicators of globalization and rely on both aggregated (i.e., country level) and disaggregated (i.e., good level) data. Using quarterly data since 1992, we do not find compelling evidence that global factors cause a structural change in the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Indeed, increased trade openness or lower trade tariffs push up ERPT in some sectors, though results are quite sparse. However, regionalization, defined as a higher proportion of intra-EU imports' share in total imports, reduces the pass-through in a more generalized way. Most importantly, we show that ERPT incompleteness generally observed in the literature is in appearance only and not at play when intra-EU trade is controlled for. Overall, our findings show that ERPT is complete and significant in numerous sectors, meaning that exchange rate changes still exert important pressure on domestic prices. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through;Import prices;Globalization;Eurozone |
| JEL: | E31 F31 F4 C22 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2017-08&r=int |
| By: | James E. Anderson (Boston College); Yoto V. Yotov (Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | Short run gravity is a geometric weighted average of long run gravity and bilateral capacity. The model features (i) joint trade costs endogenous to bilateral volumes, (ii) long run gravity as a limiting case of efficient investment in bilateral capacities, (iii) a structural ratio of short run to long run trade elasticities equal to a microfounded buyers' incidence elasticity, and (iv) tractable short and long run models of the extensive margin. Application to manufacturing trade of 52 countries during the globalization period 1988-2006 strongly supports the model. Results solve several time invariance and trade elasticity puzzles in the literature. |
| Keywords: | trade elasticity puzzles, export dynamics, missing globalization. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2017–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:928&r=int |
| By: | Thorbecke, Willem (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) |
| Abstract: | Researchers found that manufacturing imports have caused dislocation and triggered protectionist pressures. This paper investigates whether manufacturing exports from China, Germany, and other exporters are disproportionate. Gravity model results indicate that Germany’s exports in 2015 were 24 percent more than predicted and China’s exports 5 percent less than predicted. However, China’s exports to North America were 71 percent more than predicted and China’s exports to East Asia 46 percent less than predicted. East Asia’s intra-regional exports were also 36 percent less than predicted. Dynamic ordinary least squares findings indicate that export price elasticities are higher for China, Korea, Taiwan, the UK and the US and lower for Germany and Japan. |
| Keywords: | RManufacturing exports; Gravity model; China |
| JEL: | F32 F14 F22 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-07&r=int |
| By: | Mariana Balan (“Athenaeum†University of Bucharest, Romania and Institute for Economic Forecasting- NIER, Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | The globalization of modern world stimulated marked increases in the migration to locations both near and far supported by several factors either of economic, social or environmental nature or by political instability and the development of some sophisticated, modern transport systems and networks that facilitated easier, cheaper and quicker movement of individuals than in any other moment in mankind’s history. Thus, the number of international migrants reached 244 million in 2015 on increase by 41% as compared with the year 2000. Characteristic for the migration phenomenon by the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the third millennium is the change in the structure, dimension and typology of migration flows, as the workforce demand regarding the labor force market in the countries of destination is addressed especially to high-skilled immigrants. Even though for most of the times, the volume, diversity, geographic expansion, as well as the general complexity of international migration are considered as on increase as effects of the globalization processes, still this idea remains for its largest part unverified. The paper presents a brief analysis of the main globalization characteristics of globalization and its impact on the volume, structure, and trends of the migration flows. |
| Keywords: | globalization, migration, urban immigration, economic and social effects |
| JEL: | F22 J10 J21 J24 J61 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:3&r=int |
| By: | Christopher M. Meissner; John P. Tang |
| Abstract: | Japanese exports between 1880 and 1910 increased massively in volume, changed composition, and shifted away from leading industrialized countries toward poorer Asian neighbors. The product mix also varied with the level of development of the destination, with new products and specializations more likely to ship to less developed regional economies. Using a new disaggregated data set of the bilateral-product level exports for the universe of Japanese trade partners, we find that changes in various extensive margins (new markets, new goods) account for over 30 percent of export growth over this period. Determinants of initial entry include trade costs and market size. Products started in a small number of markets and accumulated additional destinations building on earlier successes. Subsequent entry was also influenced by product-level characteristics interacting with destination-specific characteristics. We confirm that export growth for “new” products was stronger in LDCs than in advanced economies, but the latter still claimed a larger share of overall trade growth. There is little evidence that Japan exported low quality manufactured goods to new, low-income destinations. Instead, reductions in trade costs helped Japan augment market share. Exit is relatively rare but appears to be determined by market-specific demand-side effects and product-specific factors. |
| JEL: | F14 F15 N75 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23481&r=int |
| By: | Mihaela Simionescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy); Mirel Daniel Simionescu (Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | Considering that foreign direct investment (FDI) is the principal mechanism for economic globalization, this study analyzes the relationship between FDI and unemployment rate in the US. A vector error correction model was built for checking the long-run and the short-term relationship between FDI inflows and the absolute variation of unemployment rate in the current period compared to previous period. The quarterly data covered the period from 2000 to 2016. The empirical findings showed that only on long-run the changes in the US unemployment rate influenced the FDI. There was not any short-run relationship between FDI and variation in unemployment rate. The macroeconomic policies for attracting FDI in the US should take into account that the foreign investors are sensitive on long-term to the shocks in the unemployment rate. |
| Keywords: | unemployment rate, FDI, vector error correction model, cointegration |
| JEL: | C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:18&r=int |
| By: | Chort, Isabelle; de la Rupelle, Maëlys |
| Abstract: | This paper uses state-level migration ow data between Mexico and the U.S. from 1999 to 2011 to investigate the migration response to climate shocks and the mitigating impact of an agricultural cash-transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden). Our results suggest that lower than average precipitations increase undocumented migration, especially from the most agricultural states. Fonden amounts are found to mitigate the effect of climate shocks on migration by lowering the undocumented migration response to precipitation anomalies. Similarly an increase in the state-level share of PROCAMPO funds to non-irrigated plots in the ejido sector decreases migration after a shock. |
| Keywords: | International migration,Climate change,Public policies,Weather variability,Natural disasters,Mexico-U.S. migration |
| JEL: | F22 Q54 Q18 J61 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:78&r=int |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala |
| Abstract: | This paper examines China’s evolving role in global production networks and its implications for assessing the potential impact of the ‘trade war’ declared by President Trump. The analysis, which is based on a systematic disaggregation of trade based on global production sharing into components and final assembly, suggests that the Sino-US trade gap is a structural phenomenon driven by the pivotal role played by China within East Asia centered production networks. The global competitiveness of US MNEs depends on their ability to use China as the production base for supplying the rest of the world, and China is now an important supplier of components used in US manufacturing. Given this intricate interdependence between the two countries, attempt to impose punitive tariffs on China is bound to face formidable opposition from business interests in the United States. Even if the protectionist threat becomes a reality, the impact may not be as damaging as commonly thought because global production sharing has considerably weakens the link between relative prices and trade flows. |
| Keywords: | China, global production networks, Sino-US trade dispute, punitive tariffs, MNEs |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F59 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2017-08&r=int |
| By: | Adina Ardelean; Miguel Leon-Ledesma; Laura Puzzello |
| Abstract: | We develop an empirical framework that allows us to account for producer-country, industry, and demand shocks as drivers of volatility at the industry level in open economies. Our methodology separately accounts for demand shocks originating in the home and foreign markets. Using a panel of manufacturing and trade data, our findings suggest that, independent of the level of aggregation, output volatility is driven primarily by shocks originating in the destination markets for an industry's sales (demand shocks) including home markets. Further, we show that industries more open to trade are more volatile because intra-industry imports increase the uncertainty of 1) domestic demand, and 2) production through greater exposure to foreign shocks. |
| Keywords: | Output Volatility; Demand Shocks; Trade; Industry-level Data |
| JEL: | F15 F44 F61 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1709&r=int |
| By: | Ekkayokkaya, Manapol; Foojinphan, Pimnipa; Wolff, Christian C |
| Abstract: | We study cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in ten countries in the Indochina region during the period 1993-2015. Countries with a French colonial history showed markedly lower levels of cross-border M&As (value as well as volume) than other countries, whether previously colonized or not. This difference persists even after accounting for the known drivers of cross-border M&A activity, including legal origin, trade openness, and labor cost levels. Together, these findings suggest that the colonial past of a country plays an important role in cross-border M&A activity. |
| Keywords: | colonial history; Foreign direct investment; South-East Asia |
| JEL: | F54 G15 G34 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12078&r=int |
| By: | Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Mileva, Mariya |
| Abstract: | We use a dynamic trade model with two sectors and two types of workers to analyze the optimal setting of income-generating tariffs. This approach allows us to take account of adjustment dynamics, distributional aspects and the time horizon of policy makers and workers. In response to a unilateral increase in tariffs aggregate consumption increases only sluggishly so that policy makers with a short time horizon tend to set lower tariffs. Workers' preferences for tariffs depend on the sector where they are employed as well as their skill class, with the relative weight of both aspects determined by the time horizon of the workers. Unskilled workers in the unskilledintensive sector are the ones most in favor of protectionism and might even benefit from a trade war. |
| Keywords: | protectionism,optimal tariffs,dynamic trade model,inequality |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2082&r=int |
| By: | Generalova Svetlana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration- Stolypin Volga Region Institute of administration) |
| Abstract: | The article reveals the essence and purpose of the diversification of agricultural production in the conditions of import substitution. Settle the causes that gave rise to the need to deepen the process of diversification of agricultural production to meet the requirements of import substitution in Russia. |
| Keywords: | diversification, import substitution, agricultural products. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:gen06&r=int |
| By: | Trofimov, Ivan D. |
| Abstract: | The paper provides comprehensive review of alternative explanations of the trade policy formation, associated rise of trade protectionism, and difficulties of trade liberalisation. Normative economic, systemic, public interest, political, institutional and constitutional economic theories of trade policy, together with political science models of trade cooperation are considered. The paper shows that current research in the area tends to accentuate the factors that entrench trade protectionism, while paying insufficient attention to the role of agency, policy dynamics and informal institutions that may bring in trade liberalisation. Requirements for holistic and dynamic analysis of trade policy are outlined. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy, protectionism, liberalisation, policy dynamics. |
| JEL: | F13 F50 P11 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79504&r=int |
| By: | Generalova Svetlana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration- Stolypin Volga Region Institute of administration) |
| Abstract: | In article the essence and purpose of diversification of agricultural products in the context of import substitution. Justified causes that gave rise to the need for deepening the process of diversification of agricultural products, taking into account the requirements of import substitution in Russia. CLASSIFICATION: |
| Keywords: | Diversification of types of diversification, import substitution, agricultural products, agriculture. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:gen04&r=int |
| By: | Generalova Svetlana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration- Stolypin Volga Region Institute of administration) |
| Abstract: | The article reveals the essence and purpose of the diversification of agricultural production in the conditions of import substitution. Settle the causes that gave rise to the need to deepen the process of diversification of agricultural production to meet the requirements of import substitution in Russia |
| Keywords: | diversification, import substitution, agricultural products. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:gen02&r=int |
| By: | Olga A. Timoshenko (George Washington University); Erick Sager (Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, firm size distribution, extensive margin, trade elasticities. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2017-8&r=int |
| By: | Andrea Ascani; Riccardo Crescenzi; Simona Iammarino |
| Abstract: | This article investigates how the location behavior of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) is shaped by the economic institutions of the host countries. The analysis covers a wide set of geographically proximate economies with different degrees of integration with the ‘Old’ 15 European Union (EU) members: New Member States, Accession and Candidate Countries, as well as European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) countries and the Russian Federation. The article aims to shed new light on the heterogeneity of MNE preferences for the host countries’ regulatory settings (including labor market and business regulation), legal aspects (i.e. protection of property rights and contract enforcement) and the weight of the government in the economy. By employing data on 6,888 greenfield investment projects, the random-coefficient Mixed Logit analysis shows that, while the quality of the national institutional framework is generally beneficial for the attraction of foreign investment, MNEs preferences over economic institutions are highly heterogeneous across sectors and business functions. |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprises; economic institutions; location choice; European Union |
| JEL: | F23 L20 P33 R30 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:65496&r=int |
| By: | Swati Dhingra; Thomas Sampson |
| Abstract: | This general election is pitched as the 'Brexit Election', one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK's exit from the European Union (EU). The Conservatives and Labour have both made it clear they will respect the referendum result and take the UK out of the EU. But there are many ways to leave and the referendum did not allow voters to choose between them - Brexit does not simply mean Brexit. What matters, of course, is the content of the withdrawal agreement and of any new trade deal between the UK and the EU. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, economy, EU, single market |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:040&r=int |
| By: | Jonathan Wadsworth |
| Abstract: | Immigration to the UK has grown a lot over the last 20 years and a significant fraction of this growth has been from other EU countries, especially after 2004 and the accession of the eight East European countries ('A8'). There are now around 9 million individuals (and 7.4 million adults of working age) living in the UK who were born abroad. The number of immigrants from EU countries living in the UK has tripled from 0.9 million to 3.3 million over this period. In the 2016 referendum debate, a major argument of the Leave campaign was that Brexit would allow more control over the flow of immigrants to the UK from the EU. Many people continue to be concerned that high levels of immigration have hurt their jobs, wages and quality of life. Higher immigration has increased overall national income (more workers will generate more GDP) and benefited the immigrants who have come to the UK since, by and large, they are better off than in their country of origin. But has it been harmful to people born in the UK? |
| Keywords: | immigration, EU countries, economy, Brexit |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:039&r=int |
| By: | Generalova Svetlana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration- Stolypin Volga Region Institute of administration) |
| Abstract: | The article presents the results of the economic analysis of the structure and dynamics of the imports of foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials. This analysis allowed us to conclude that currently there is a high share of import of agricultural products and the overall import dependence of the agro-food complex, which necessitates a policy of accelerated import substitution. |
| Keywords: | Import substitution, import dependence, import share, agro food complex, food security, food imports and agricultural raw materials |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:gen03&r=int |
| By: | Richard C. Bart |
| Abstract: | Summary chk |
| Keywords: | Agricultural prices;Keywords chk |
| Date: | 2018–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/01&r=int |
| By: | Murard, Elie (IZA) |
| Abstract: | I examine the effect of immigrant inflows in Europe on natives' individual attitudes towards redistribu-tion and immigration policy over the last decade. Unlike previous studies, I analyze the evolution over time of these two types of attitudes in a joint empirical framework. Using migration data at the NUTS regional level from the European Labor Force Survey and individual attitudes data from the European Social Survey, I exploit variation over time and across regions in the size and composition of immigrant inflows. I address the endogeneity of immigrant inflows by using a shift share instrument and within-country specification. I find evidence coherent with a theoretical model in which individual attitudes depend essentially on how immigration is perceived to affect wages and net welfare benefits. Specifi-cally, I find that, when immigrants tend to compete with natives for jobs (due to having similar skills or occupations), natives prefer policies that support welfare and put restrictions on migration. When mi-grants are mostly low-skilled (high-skilled), European citizens typically favor lower (higher) levels of redistribution. |
| Keywords: | immigration, welfare state, political economy |
| JEL: | F22 F1 J61 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10805&r=int |