nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2017‒05‒28
29 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Analysis of the Experience of Using Measures of Non-Tariff Regulation of Foreign Trade in Countries Negotiating with the Eurasian Economic Union By Volovik, Nadezhda
  2. Determinants of Value-Added Exports: The Role of Import Demand Factors By Idrisova, Vittoria
  3. Smile Curve and its linkages with Global Value Chains By Aggarwal, Sakshi
  4. Export intermediaries and adjustments to exchange rate movements By S. Bolatto; M. Grazzi; C. Tomasi
  5. Core labour standards and exports By Jean-Marc Siroën
  6. Non-Tariff Measures and the Structure of Trade Flows By Ponomareva, Ekaterina; Magomedov, Rustam
  7. The Influence of Brexit on the Foreign Direct Investment Projects and Inflows in the United Kingdom By Simionescu, Mihaela
  8. Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China By Julien Gourdon; Laura Hering; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  9. Determinants of Entering the Export Markets and Behavior of Russian Firms in International Trade By Kuznetsov, Dmitry; Knobel, Alexander
  10. Viet Nam's Automotive Supplier Industry: Development Prospects under Conditions for Free Trade and Global Production Networks By Martin Schröder
  11. Exporters and Shocks By Fitzgerald, Doireann; Haller, Stephanie
  12. On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: Does export concentration matter? By Paulo Soares Esteves; Elvira Prades
  13. The Opening-up of ASEAN and Hub-Spoke Trade Pattern among By 黃登興; 黃幼宜; 蔡青龍
  14. Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports? By Julien Gourdon; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  15. Heterogeneity and the distance puzzle By Elizaveta Archanskaia; Guillaume Daudin
  16. Moves Towards an Islamic Common Market: Evaluation of the Potentials By Jafarli, Said
  17. German companies relaxed about Brexit By Grömling, Michael; Matthes, Jürgen
  18. Towards Deeper Integration Among China, Japan and Korea By Choi , Bo Young; Lee , Seo Young
  19. U.S. Immigration Reform and the Dynamics of Mexican Migration By Khulan Altangerel; Jan van Ours
  20. Does foreign investment reduce poverty?empirical evidence from Tanzania By Magombeyi, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  21. World Trade in Services; Evidence from A New Dataset By Prakash Loungani; Saurabh Mishra; Chris Papageorgiou; Ke Wang
  22. Incomplete VAT rebates to exporters : how do they affect China's export performance? By Julien Gourdon; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  23. Globalization and Executive Compensation By Wolfgang Keller; William W. Olney
  24. Global Perspective of CPEC Regarding Economic Integration and Trade Openness By Rabbi, Muhammad Ahsan
  25. Determinants of FDI inflows in advanced economies: Does the quality of economic structures matter? By Dellis, Konstantinos; Sondermann, David; Vansteenkiste, Isabel
  26. Migration for Development: From Challenges to Opportunities By Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  27. Illegal Re-Export and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Russian Food Embargo in 2014 By Firanchuk, Alexander
  28. Local Institutional Quality and Return Migration: Evidence from Vietnam By Ngoc Thi Minh Tran; Michael P. Cameron; Jacques Poot
  29. Evaluation of the Effects of Integration of Eurasian Economic Union By Sedalishchev, Vladimir; Chokaev, Bekhan; Knobel, Alexander

  1. By: Volovik, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Since the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, customs tariff rates have been constantly decreasing. The agreement of the WTO member countries to continue the GATT course for further reduction and partial cancellation of customs duties was an important result of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations regarding tariff liberalization. As a result, the weighted average level of customs duties on manufactured goods declined in all countries. Further tariff liberalization took place due to the growing number of multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements. The inability to regulate imports by increasing import duties stimulated the search by virtually all countries of other effective instruments for protecting national markets. As a result, as the general level of customs tariffs was reduced, the protectionist role of non-tariff methods (NTM) for regulating foreign trade increased.
    Date: 2017–04
  2. By: Idrisova, Vittoria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The development of global, cross-border production and trade chains poses new challenges for states, authorities of regional integration groups to create conditions that would increase the competitiveness of firms within such chains. However, at the present time, the theoretical elaboration of approaches to the analysis of international trade within the framework of international value chains, that is, value-added trade, will remain fragmentary. The presented study provides an analysis of the validity of the models based on theories of comparative advantages and endowment with production factors, import demand models and export offers to identify and qualitatively and quantitatively assess the impact of various factors on value added trade in the sectoral context (for goods produced in the sector Industry). On the basis of the conducted empirical research, recommendations are given on the conduct of an economic (industrial-commercial) policy with a view to increasing the amount of added value embodied in gross exports of non-primary commodities.
    Date: 2017–05
  3. By: Aggarwal, Sakshi
    Abstract: The concept and logic of ‘smile curve’ in the context of global value chains has gained importance in recent time period and discussed at the individual firm level, but rarely identified and investigated at the sectoral level using real data for cross-country analysis. Using TIVA database for 2001 and 2011 time period, several conceptual value chain are investigated including exports of Base Metals, Computer Electronics, Electrical Machinery and Transportation equipment’s in Asian Economies. This paper focuses an idea to measure both the strength and linkages between producers and consumers of global value chain. The identified smile curve provides a very intuitive understanding of the roles played by different countries in various sectors and helps in identifying the benefits gained by them through their participation in global trade. The dynamics of structural upgrading and interactive growth via trade and investment within a hierarchy of countries is aligned with “flying-geese (FG)” theory of growth. The paper also gives emphasis on the role of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in broadening economic integration.
    Keywords: Economic Integration, Fragmentation, and Globalization
    JEL: F12 F15 F60
    Date: 2017–05–14
  4. By: S. Bolatto; M. Grazzi; C. Tomasi
    Abstract: Building on a heterogeneous-firm model à la Melitz (2003), we propose a theory of intermediaries in international trade which rationalizes the available evidence on both aggregate and firm-level exports as well as their responsiveness to exchange rate movements. We introduce double marginalization for goods traded indirectly, i.e. through intermediaries, and local distribution costs for all exporting firms, either intermediaries or direct exporters. This leads to heterogeneous markups, pricing-to-market and to a lower degree of exchange rate pass-through for goods exported by intermediaries. This result, validated on Italian firm-level trade data, is consistent with productivity sorting in the export mode and with the propensity of high productivity firms to absorb more exchange rate movements in their markups. We also explore how direct and intermediary export ows to a given destination react to exchange rate movements along the extensive margin of adjustment. Consistently with our theory, we find evidence of a larger variation in the overall number of varieties traded along the intermediary channel.
    JEL: F12 F14 D22 L22
    Date: 2017–05
  5. By: Jean-Marc Siroën (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: Core labour standards defined by the ILO in 1998 are universal, but applied very differently across countries. Compliance is much higher in high income countries. However, the causality between improved labour standards and economic growth remains a controversial issue. Export-led growth strategies might encourage developing countries to curb the process of standards improvement. In this way, they can raise the volume of their unskilled labour endowments (child and/or forced labour) in order to strengthen their comparative advantage over compliant countries and pursue "social dumping" strategies, which aim more directly at increasing competitiveness. We use a gravity model to assess the trade impact of curbing the level of compliance with core labour standards, distinguishing the effects on bilateral trade (geographical specialization) from the multilateral effects on all exports and imports. We show that, other things being equal, countries that meet the labour standards tend to trade more with each other, while non-compliant countries tend to trade more with compliant countries. These effects are identified mainly with respect to child labour and freedom of association. All other things being equal, countries that meet the labour standards tend to be less open than non-compliant countries, but differently depending on the standards, with a non-linear relationship for some of them. Less compliant countries, frequently the poorest ones, may simultaneously step up their trade and labour standards. For median countries, mainly the emerging countries, the level of compliance with labour standards is “optimal” from a mercantilist point of view. For the most compliant countries, the developed ones, their strict compliance with labour standards implies a trade shortfall.
    Abstract: Les normes de travail fondamentales définies par l'OIT en 1998 sont universelles, mais différemment appliquées dans les pays. Leur respect est beaucoup plus élevé dans les pays à haut revenu. Toutefois, la causalité entre l'amélioration des normes de travail et la croissance reste un sujet débattu. Les stratégies de croissance par les exportations pourraient encourager les pays en développement à ralentir le processus d'amélioration des normes. Ils peuvent ainsi accroître leur dotation relative en travail non qualifié (travail des enfants et/ou forcé) pour renforcer leurs avantages comparatifs par rapport aux pays qui les respectent et poursuivre des politiques dites de "dumping social" qui visent encore plus directement à accroître leur compétitivité. Nous utilisons un modèle de gravité pour évaluer l'impact du commerce sur le respect des normes fondamentales de travail en séparant les effets sur le commerce bilatéral (spécialisation géographique) des effets sur l'ouverture multilatérale. Nous montrons que, toutes choses égales par ailleurs, les pays qui respectent les normes de travail tendent à échanger davantage entre eux alors que les pays qui ne les respectent pas tendent à échanger davantage avec les pays qui les respectent. Ces effets sont particulièrement nets avec le travail des enfants et la liberté d'association. Les pays qui respectent les normes de travail tendent à être moins ouverts que les pays qui ne les respectent pas, mais avec des différences selon les normes avec une relation non linéaire pour certaines d'entre elles. Les pays qui les respectent le moins, généralement les plus pauvres, améliorent simultanément leur commerce et leurs normes. Pour les pays intermédiaires en terme de respect des normes, principalement les pays émergents, le niveau de respect des normes de travail est “optimal” d'un point de vue mercantiliste. Pour les pays les plus respectueux, ce niveau élevé de normes conduit à réduire leur commerce.
    Keywords: Labour Standards,International Trade,Gravity Models,Exports,ILO,Exportations,Commerce international,Normes de travail,OIT,modèles de gravité
    Date: 2017–03–24
  6. By: Ponomareva, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Magomedov, Rustam (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Understanding the process of quantitative influence of foreign trade policy measures (tariff and non-tariff) on the development of Russian industry is the basis of decision-making process on using of different measures of industrial policy and the study of their impact on the import/export and product diversity is an important part of the development of a balanced industrial and trade policy. The main purpose of this work is to test the hypothesis about the negative impact of tariff and non-tariff measures for protection domestic market on import/export on HS-6(8) data, fnd testing the hypotheses about the different influence of trade policy measures (tariff and non-tariff) for protection the domestic market on product diversity of final and intermediate goods, evaluation of ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff measures on certain commodity groups at the level of HS – 6(8), quantify the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on the structure of trade flows and, in particular, on the export structure.
    Date: 2017–05
  7. By: Simionescu, Mihaela
    Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of Brexit on the foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United Kingdom. As a novelty, compare to previous studies from the literature, the research focused on two proxies for FDI: FDI projects with the associated new and safeguarded jobs and FDI inflows as percent of GDP. Moreover, other methods were used to measure the Brexit impact on the FDI: a gravity model approach based on mixed-effects Poisson models and a counterfactual analysis based on differences-to-differences estimators. The main results indicated that the number of FDI projects might decrease after Brexit by 65% till 90%. A higher increase by 97% is expected to the number of new and safeguarded jobs. Even if FDI inflows in the UK significantly increased compared to the rest of OECD countries because of the EU membership, the UK should follow the model of Norway and Iceland after Brexit in order to avoid significant losses in the FDI inflows.
    Keywords: Brexit,foreign direct investment,FDI projects,Poisson model,differences-in-differences estimator
    JEL: C51 C53 F21
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Julien Gourdon (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Laura Hering (Erasmus University Rotterdam - Department of Regional, Port and Transport Economics); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sandra Poncet (FERDI - Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International - Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as exporters may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-productlevel over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with supplied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields abetter understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially.
    Keywords: export tax,China,export performance,VAT System
    Date: 2017–03–27
  9. By: Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper examines the theoretical and empirical approaches to the modeling of firm’s behavior in international trade. Using these approaches to analyze the detailed statistics of Russian firms, in the presented study the characteristic of the behavior of Russian firms in international trade is given. We also study the cross-sectional structure of Russian exports to the position of individual enterprises. In general, results of the work should be considered as a better understanding of the behavior of Russian firms in international trade that interesting from both is both academic and practical point of views.
    Keywords: Export, transaction-level data, fixed cost of trade, probability model, export premium, extensive margin, intensive margin, Ýêñïîðò, ìèêðîäàííûå, ôèêñèðîâàííûå èçäåðæêè òîðãîâëè, âåðîÿòíîñòíàÿ ìîäåëü, ýêñïîðòíàÿ ïðåìèÿ, ýêñòåíñèâíàÿ ìàðæà, èíòåíñèâíàÿ ìàðæà
    Date: 2017–05
  10. By: Martin Schröder
    Abstract: Despite foreign direct investment occurring in the 1990s, automobile production in Viet Nam has not progressed beyond assembly. Due to forthcoming trade liberalisation in ASEAN, these assembly operations are endangered from closure as car-makers consider shifting to imports from more developed automobile manufacturing countries in the region. This paper analyses the current state of the automotive industry in Viet Nam and seeks to formulate policy recommendations based on the findings.
    Keywords: automotive industry, industrial development, Vietnamese industry
    JEL: L62
    Date: 2017–05
  11. By: Fitzgerald, Doireann (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Haller, Stephanie (University College Dublin)
    Abstract: We use micro data for Ireland to estimate how export participation and the export revenue of incumbent exporters respond to tariffs and real exchange rates. Both participation and revenue, but especially revenue, are more responsive to tariffs than to real exchange rates. Our estimates translate into an elasticity of aggregate exports with respect to tariffs of between -3.8 and -5.4, and with respect to real exchange rates of between 0.45 and 0.6, consistent with estimates in the literature based on aggregate data. We argue that forward-looking investment in customer base combined with the fact that tariffs are much more predictable than real exchange rates can explain why export revenue responds so much more to tariffs.
    Keywords: Tariffs; Real exchange rates; International elasticity puzzle
    JEL: F14 F41
    Date: 2017–05–18
  12. By: Paulo Soares Esteves (Banco de portugal); Elvira Prades (Banco de España)
    Abstract: During economic downturns, weak domestic demand developments seem to be an additional driver of exports, as firms increase their efforts to serve markets abroad to compensate the fall in domestic sales. This may constitute an additional mechanism adjustment for the euro area countries where real exchange rate variations are limited by the common currency itself and the present low inflation environment. However, this substitution effect between domestic and foreign sales could be different across euro area members. This paper uses panel data techniques to assess the role of the export structure in explaining these differences. Building a novel indicator for product concentration, the results suggest that domestic demand developments are more relevant to explain exports in countries with a lower product concentration index (that is, more diversified exports). This contributes to explain why euro area countries under stress registered different economic performance during the most recent years.
    Keywords: exports, domestic demand pressures, external adjustment
    JEL: C22 E03 F10
    Date: 2017–05
  13. By: 黃登興 (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan); 黃幼宜 (National Taiwan Ocean University Institute of Applied Economics); 蔡青龍 (Tamkang University Department of Diplomacy and International Relations)
    Abstract: It is well known, that ASEAN Economic Community will be created by the end of 2015. By that AEASN as a whole will become a huge market of 615 million populations. However, population size is not equivalent to market size, simply for its cross border cost in many aspects, like logistic difference, cultura land institutional heterogeneities. This project aims at exporting the empirical relationship between common market (CM) and home market effect, the effect of CM on the pattern of hub-spoke trade, the theoretical relationship between CM and the likely change on the position of vertical production specialization for the CM. In the first year, we will compute and investigate the trend of HM (hubness measure) index for the East Asian region countries, not only by total trade but also by industry
    Keywords: Regional Integration, East Asian bicycle, Hubness Measure, Spokeness Measure, 經濟整合, 中日雙軸心, 軸心指數, 輻緣指數
    Date: 2017–05
  14. By: Julien Gourdon (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sandra Poncet (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)
    Abstract: This work investigates the motivations behind the Chinese fiscal policy on exports. It relies on very detailed product level (HS 6 digit) data over the period 2002-12 covering both export tax and export VAT rebate. It aims to uncover the respective importance of the various policy motivations and how they evolved over time. Our empirical analysis relates the tax rates to proxies of official objectives pursued by the Chinese public authorities such as those related to the promotion of technology or protection of the environment but also other unstated motives pertaining to subsidization of downstream sectors and terms of trade. Our results suggest that the Chinese fiscal policy targeting exports followsa variety of objectives whose relative importance changed over the period 2002-2012.
    Keywords: industrial policy,export tax,Trade policy,VAT system,China
    Date: 2017–04–13
  15. By: Elizaveta Archanskaia (OFCE - Observatoire Français des Conjonctures économiques - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris - Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques [FNSP]); Guillaume Daudin (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: This paper shows that reduced heterogeneity of exporter-specific goods can provide a direct explanation of the distance puzzle. Using COMTRADE 4-digit bilateral trade data we find that the elasticity of trade to distance has increased by 8% from 1962 to 2009. Theoretical foundations of the gravity equation indicate that the distance coefficient is the product of the elasticity of trade costs to distance and a measure of heterogeneity, e.g. the substitution elasticity between exporter-specific goods in the Armington framework. This parameter has increased by 13% from 1962 to 2009. The evolution of the distance coefficient is thus compatible with a 4% reduction in the elasticity of trade costs to distance.
    Keywords: Gravity equation,distance puzzle,trade elasticity,trade costs
    Date: 2017–03–27
  16. By: Jafarli, Said
    Abstract: The Organization of Islamic Cooperation members had proposed the establishment of an Islamic Common Market among themselves in the early 1970s. This notion currently listed among the core objectives of the Organization and, to this end, the members adopted the TPS agreement in 1990. This study provides the first systematic and comprehensive evaluation of the TPS signatories’ potential to increase trade by applying five different trade indexes suggested in the literature. The findings reveal different characteristics of the TPS countries and shed light on their potential for enhancing economic cooperation. In general, the results are in favor of the establishment of a Preferential Trade Agreement among the TPS signatories.
    Keywords: Organization of Islamic Cooperation,Islamic Common Market, TPS-OIC, Economic Integration, Regionalism, Development Economics, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Growth Orientation of Markets Index, Trade Intensity Index, Trade Complimentary Index
    JEL: F10 F13 F14 F15 F40 F50 F53
    Date: 2017
  17. By: Grömling, Michael; Matthes, Jürgen
    Abstract: The United Kingdom intends to leave the single market, yet still wants to retain broad access to it by means of a comprehensive free trade agreement. But the question remains as to whether the European Union is prepared to play ball. Brexiteers claim that German companies in particular, worried about their exports to the UK, will push for a gentle compromise in the favour of the UK, so that trade can continue with as little disruption as possible. Yet a survey by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln) has cast doubt on this view.
    Date: 2017
  18. By: Choi , Bo Young (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Seo Young (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the contents of all preferential trade agreements (PTAs) of China, Japan, and Korea whose date of entry into force is prior to February 2015, on the basis of sectoral coverage and legal enforceability. Based on the methodology of Horn et al. (2010), the 52 policy areas covered by the three countries' agreements are classified into two groups, WTO (provisions reconfirming the existing commitments in the WTO agreements and providing for additional obligations) and WTO-X (provisions in areas outside the mandate of WTO). We find that the three countries' coverage of WTO provisions is extensive, while less so for WTO-X. Among the three countries, Korea has the most extensive coverage of WTO provisions, followed by Japan, then China. The legal inflation rate is also low for these provisions. On the other hand, WTO-X provisions show higher legal inflation, implying that these provisions tend to be less legally enforced. Among the three countries, Korea displays the highest coverage of WTO-X areas, followed by Japan, and then China. Overall, the three countries' legal inflation rate is below the world and the EU PTAs average, but higher than the average of US PTAs. Interestingly, Korea and Japan show a broader sectoral coverage and contain higher number of legally enforceable provisions in recent PTAs. While China's PTAs have shown low coverage of deep provisions in the past, more recent PTAs are converging to the depth of Korea's and Japan's PTAs as China began negotiating PTAs with developed countries.
    Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreements; China; Japan; Korea
    JEL: F15 F50
    Date: 2017–05–04
  19. By: Khulan Altangerel (Tilburg university); Jan van Ours (Erasmus School of Economics and Tinbergen Institute)
    Abstract: The 1986 US Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) was directed at tackling the problem of growing unauthorized migration through legalization of unauthorized immigrants, increasing border security and sanctioning employers who hired unauthorized immigrants. Our paper investigates how the IRCA affected the migration dynamics of Mexican immigrants focusing on their age of onset of migration and the duration of their first trip. We find that the IRCA had a positive effect in reducing unauthorized migration to the US. Although primarily aiming at unauthorized immigration, the IRCA had substantial effects on legal migration through its legalization program.
    Keywords: Immigration policy; migrant behavior
    JEL: J61 J68
    Date: 2016–12–02
  20. By: Magombeyi, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
    Abstract: This paper investigates the direct impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on poverty reductionin Tanzania between 1980 and 2014. The paper attempts to answer one critical question: Does FDI reducepoverty in Tanzania? The study employs three poverty reduction proxies, namely, household consumptionexpenditure (Pov1), infant mortality rate (Pov2), and life expectancy (Pov3). The three poverty reductionproxies have been selected based on the need to capture poverty in its multidimensional nature. Using theautoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the study finds that FDI has a short-runpositive impact on poverty reduction when infant mortality rate is used as a proxy for poverty reduction.However, when infant mortality rate and life expectancy are used as poverty reduction proxies, FDI has noimpact on poverty reduction. This applies irrespective of whether the analysis is conducted in the short runor in the long run. The study, therefore, concludes that the impact of FDI on poverty reduction is sensitiveto the proxy used to measure the level of poverty reduction, and varies over time.
    Keywords: Tanzania; Poverty Reduction; Foreign Direct Investment; Household Consumption Expenditure;Infant Mortality Rate;Life Expectancy
    Date: 2017–05
  21. By: Prakash Loungani; Saurabh Mishra; Chris Papageorgiou; Ke Wang
    Abstract: Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014, this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an increasingly important component of global production. A detailed analysis of patterns and stylized facts reveals that exports of services are not only gaining strong momentum and catching up with exports of goods in many countries, but they could also trigger a new wave of trade globalization. Research applications of the trade in service dataset on structural transformation, resilience, labor reallocation, and income distribution are outlined.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Globalization;Trade in services, sector-level data, technology, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Economic Growth of Open Economies, General, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    Date: 2017–03–29
  22. By: Julien Gourdon (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sandra Poncet (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)
    Abstract: During the last decade, the Chinese government has frequently changed the value added tax (VAT) refund levels offered to exporters. Indeed, China’s VAT system is not neutral, in particular because the exporters may not receive complete refund of the domestic VAT paid on their inputs. This paper investigates how changes in the VAT rebates affect export performance in China. Our empirical analysis relies on export volume data at the HS6 product level over the 2003-12 period. To address potential endogeneity, we exploit an eligibility rule that disqualifies processingtrade with supplied materials from the rebates. We find that the adjustments to the VAT rebates have significant repercussions on the exported volume: a one percentage point increase in the VAT rebate can lead to a 7% increase in export volumes. This magnitude allows to better understand the strong resistance of China’s exports amid the global recession.
    Keywords: China,VAT system,Export performance,Export tax
    Date: 2017–03–28
  23. By: Wolfgang Keller; William W. Olney
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of globalization in the rapid increase in top incomes. Using a comprehensive data set of thousands of executives at U.S. firms from 1993-2013, we find that exports, along with technology and firm size, have contributed to rising executive compensation. Isolating changes in exports that are unrelated to the executive's talent and actions, we show that globalization has affected executive pay not only through market channels but also through non-market channels. Furthermore, exogenous export shocks raise executive compensation mostly through bonus payments in poor-governance settings, in line with the hypothesis that globalization has enhanced the executive's rent capture opportunities. Overall, these results indicate that globalization has played a more central role in the rapid growth of executive compensation and U.S. inequality than previously thought, and that rent capture is an important part of this story.
    JEL: F14 J3
    Date: 2017–05
  24. By: Rabbi, Muhammad Ahsan
    Abstract: There is a misconception about CPEC that this mega project is only going to benefit China and Pakistan. However, this corridor is going to restructure and transform not only South and Central Asia, but also Middle East and Europe. Unlike EU, this project is planned to link different regions for economic integration and trade. This study is to analyse the importance of CPEC for its participants and its role in enhancing the economic integration and trade openness among Asian, European and African states. Not only this, challenges and opportunities associated with this project are also been discussed in this paper.
    Keywords: CPEC, Economic Integration, Trade Openness
    JEL: F60 F69 Z00
    Date: 2017–05–15
  25. By: Dellis, Konstantinos; Sondermann, David; Vansteenkiste, Isabel
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of economic structures as determinants of FDI inows. We expand on the existing literature by focusing on advanced economies, using a newly available measure of FDI which cleans the data from statistical artefacts, such as financial round tripping, and by relying on a wide variety of measures that proxy the quality of a country’s economic structures. Our results show that there is an empirical relation from the quality of a host country’s economic structures to FDI inflows. These results are robust to various economic specifications and are confirmed when restricting our sample to euro area countries only. JEL Classification: F21, F23, L51, O43
    Keywords: economic structures, euro area countries, foreign direct investment, institutions
    Date: 2017–05
  26. By: Zimmermann, Klaus F.
    Abstract: This contribution investigates the opportunities of migration for developing countries. The benefits of migration for sending countries are often undervalued. But migrants may foster trade, remittances, innovations, investments back home, and even return home at some time with better human capital. Functioning diasporas can lead to stable factors of development. Policies in receiving developed countries towards migrants can enhance the positive impact of migration for development. Among those are measures to support the early integration of migrants into the educational systems and in the labor markets, including jobs for asylees. Dual citizenships and circular migration contracts are possible instruments. Migration policy can be an effective development policy.
    Keywords: Remittances,circular migration,social remittances,diaspora economics,development,refugees,forced migration,dual citizenships,jobs for development,brain drain,brain gain
    JEL: F22 F24 F66 J61 O15
    Date: 2017
  27. By: Firanchuk, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The tasks of this work are: to formulate theoretical hypotheses about the factors influencing the probability of re-export occurrence; the provision of descriptive statistics that may serve as evidence for the existence of such re-exports; and the construction of an econometric model for evaluating the proposed theoretical hypotheses. In addition, we will pay attention to the statistics of trade in Russia, the main changes and the most probable cases of re-export of goods. In the framework of this work, an analysis was made of the effectiveness of the Russian food embargo, introduced in August 2014. Under the effectiveness of sanctions, we understand the extent to which they have limited the supply of goods to Russia that have fallen under the embargo. In the course of the study, a statistical analysis of the COMTRADE trade data was carried out, which resulted in the identification of a number of indirect signs of the re-export to Russia of goods banned by the food embargo. Suspicions for the re-export of sanctioned products in the period 2014-2015 most often fall on the partner countries of Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union - Belarus and Kazakhstan. Also, suspicions of the presence of re-exports can be found in the statistics of trade of Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey.
    Date: 2017–04
  28. By: Ngoc Thi Minh Tran (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: This paper examines the link between local institutional quality in the home country and locational choices of international return migrants. We scrutinize the locational choices of Vietnamese return migrants to the south central and the south regions in 2014. Binary and multinomial regression models are fitted to identify the influence of migrants’ individual attributes and the characteristics of regional destinations within Vietnam, with the main focus placed on regional institutional quality. Our analysis reveals that both individual-specific and region-specific variables are significantly related to Vietnamese return migrants’ choices when registering for permanent residency back in their home country. Older migrants are more likely to return to regions other than the central city, as are male migrants. More remarkably, we provide compelling evidence of the positive role of institutional quality at the local level in these migration decisions. Moreover, the effect of institutional quality differs by the characteristics of migrants: regions with better institutional quality are more attractive to younger return migrants, and to those who returned from host countries with better institutional quality. Our findings are strongly robust across different econometric specifications and alternative measures of host country institutional quality at the national level.
    Keywords: return migration; institutional quality; locational choice; Vietnam
    JEL: F22 O15 R23
    Date: 2017–05–15
  29. By: Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Chokaev, Bekhan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is devoted to assessment of the economic consequences of the integration policy on removing non-tariff barriers declared in the agreement on the EAEU using the methodology of numerical quantification using the computable general equilibrium (CGE). The general equilibrium model and the complex database for its estimation are constructed. A quantitative assessment of the impact of various scenarios of the EAEU integration on the economies of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia is given.
    Keywords: ÅÀÝÑ, íåòàðèôíûå áàðüåðû, ýôôåêòû èíòåãðàöèè, ìîäåëü îáùåãî ðàâíîâåñèÿ
    Date: 2017–05

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