nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2017‒05‒07
39 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. EU Trade Regulations and Imports of Hygienic Poultry By Mahdi Ghodsi; Robert Stehrer
  2. Impact of Latin-American and Caribbean Antidumping Measures on Chinese Exports By Yan Zhang
  3. 베트남, 라오스, 캄보디아에 대한 무역을 위한 원조(Aid for Trade) 동향과 효과 분석 (The Effect of Aid for Trade on Exports: Vietnam, Lao PDR and Cambodia) By Kim , Han Sung; Lee , Hongshik; Kang , Moonsung; Song , Backhoon
  4. Review of Intra-ASEAN Nontariff Measures on Trade in Goods By Medalla, Erlinda M.; Mantaring, Melalyn C.
  5. Home sweet home: the home bias in trade in the European UnionAbstract: This study examines the home bias in trade in goods and services within the European Union. Using the newest release of the World Input Output database, available for the years 2000-2014, the effect is estimated using gravity regressions. The trade-reducing effect of borders is found to be sizeable. It is greater for trade in services than for goods, though the former declined more markedly throughout the period. The paper extends current literature by demonstrating and analysing the variation in the bias across Europe. The border effect is larger in Central and Eastern Europe than in other parts of the continent. The differences in the effect can be largely explained by the depth of a country’s integration with the European Union. The number of years passed since a country joined the EU has a signiï¬ cant impact on the bias. The longer a country has been in the EU, the lower its home bias, with the ï¬ rst years of membership having the largest (in absolute terms) effect. JEL Classification: F02, F15, F14 By Mika, Alina
  6. Japan's welfare gains through globalization: An evidence from Japan's manufacturing sector By Tadashi Ito; Toshiyuki Matsuura
  7. 한·중·일의 비관세장벽 완화를 위한 3국 협력방안규제적 조치를 중심으로 (A Proposal to Lower Non-Tariff Barriers of China, Japan and Korea) By Choi , Bo Young; Bang , Ho-Kyung; Lee , Boram; Yoo , Saebyul
  8. Assessing European firms’ exports and productivity distributions: the CompNet trade module By Antoine Berthou; Emmanuel Dhyne; Matteo Bugamelli; Ana-Maria Cazacu; Calin-Vlad Demian; Péter Harasztosi; Tibor Lalinsky; Jaanika Meriküll; Filippo Oropallo; Ana Cristina Soares
  9. Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Hysteresis in EU Exports to the Global Economy – The Role of Uncertainty By Ansgar Belke; Dominik Kronen
  10. 외국인직접투자의 유형별 결정요인 분석 (The Determinants of Greenfield and M&A Foreign Direct Investment) By Lee , Seungrae; Kang , Jungu; Kim , Hyuk-Hwang; Park , Ji Hyun; Lee , Joun Won; Lee, Jumi
  11. 북·중 분업체계 분석과 대북 경제협력에 대한 시사점 (Economic Cooperation between North Korea and China, and Implications for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation) By Choi , Jangho; Kim , Junyoung; Im , So Jeong; Choi , Yoojeong
  12. Foreign trade barriers and jobs in global supply chains By Kühn, Stefan.; Viegelahn, Christian,
  13. The Organization of Knowledge in Multinational Firms By Gumpert, Anna
  14. Trade in Health Products: Reducing Trade Barriers for Better Health By Helble, Matthias; Shepherd, Benjamin
  15. Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade By Patrick Alexander
  16. DDA협상 조기수확패키지의 경제적 효과분석과 정책 대응 (Economic Impact of the Bali Packages of the Doha Round) By Suh , Jin Kyo; Oh , Soo Hyun; Park , Ji Hyun; Kim , Min-Sung; Lee , Chang-Soo
  17. 글로벌 가치사슬에서 수출부가가치의 결정요인 분석과 정책시사점 (Determinants of Value Added in Exports and Their Implications ) By Choi , Nakgyoon; Park , Soonchan
  18. 국제 디지털 상거래의 주요 쟁점과 한국의 대응방안 (Issues of International Digital Trade and Their Policy Implications) By Kim , Jeong-Gon; Na , Seung Kwon; Jang , Jong-Moon; Lee , Sung Hee; Lee , Minyoung
  19. 중국 서비스 시장 개방전략의 변화와 시사점 : 상하이 자유무역시험구의 사례를 중심으로 (Changes in Market-Opening Strategy for China's Service Sectors and the Implications: With a Focus on Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone ) By No , Su Yeon; Oh , Jonghyuk; Pak , Jinhee; Lee , Hanna
  20. Firms' Global Engagement and Management Practices By Görg, Holger; Hanley, Aoife
  21. 북한 주변국의 대북제재와 무역대체 효과 (Neighboring Countries’ Sanctions Against North Korea and Changes in Trade) By Choi , Jangho; Lim , Sooho; Rhee , Jung-kyun; Im , So Jeong
  22. International trade consequences of climate change By Rob Dellink; Hyunjeong Hwang; Elisa Lanzi; Jean Chateau
  23. A Model of Influence on Trade Policy in a Computable General Equilibrium Model By Franck Viroleau
  24. Exchange rate volatility and exports: Estimation of firms risk preferences By Broll, Udo; Mukherjee, Soumyatanu; Sensarma, Rudra
  25. Do Announcements of WTO Dispute Resolution Cases Matter? Evidence from the Rare Earth Elements Market By Juliane Proelss; Denis Schweizer; Volker Seiler
  26. 아세안 경제통합과 역내 무역투자 구조의 변화 분석 및 시사점 (ASEAN Integration: Changing Patterns of Trade and Direct Investment within Southeast Asia and Its Implications) By Kwak , Sungil; Lee , Chang-Soo; Cheong , Jae Wan; Lee , Jae-Ho; Kim , Jegook
  27. 외국인직접투자가 국내 산업구조와 노동시장에 미치는 영향 (Differential Effects of FDI on the SMEs and Wage Premium for Skilled Labor) By Choi , Hyelin; Han , Minsoo; Whang , Unjung; Kim , Su Bin
  28. The Income Elasticity of Import Demand: Micro Evidence and An Application By David Hummels; Kwan Yong Lee
  29. NAFTA and the Gender Wage Gap By Shushanik Hakobyan; John McLaren
  30. The People’s Republic of China’s Import Competition and Skill Demand in Japanese Manufacturing By Yamashita, Nobuaki
  31. Having the right mix: The role of skill bundles for comparative advantage and industry performance in GVCs By Robert Grundke; Stéphanie Jamet; Margarita Kalamova; Mariagrazia Squicciarini
  32. Market Size in Globalization By Hayato Kato; Toshihiro Okubo
  33. Impact of foreign direct investment on poverty reduction in Botswana:An ARDL approach By Magombeyi, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  34. 국내 제조업 생산성의 결정 요인과 수출 간의 관계에 대한 분석 (Productivity and Export Performance in Korea: Focusing on Comparisons with China and Japan ) By Bae , Chankwon; Kim , Young Gui; Keum , Hye Yoon
  35. Optimal Tax Routing : Network Analysis of FDI Diversion By van 't Riet, Maarten; Lejour, Arjen
  36. Ability Drain: Size, Impact, and Comparison with Brain Drain under Alternative Immigration Policies By Schiff, Maurice
  37. Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis By Sascha O. Becker; Thiemo Fetzer; Dennis Novy
  38. The Internationalisation of Firms and Management Practices:A Survey of Firms in Viet Nam By Isao Kamata; Hitoshi Sato; Kiyoyasu Tanaka
  39. What Does ASEAN Mean to ASEAN Peoples? (The Philippine Case) By Siar, Sheila V.; Llanto, Gilberto M.; Albert, Jose Ramon G.

  1. By: Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Abstract Trade negotiations between the European Union, on the one hand, and the United States and Canada, on the other, have raised concerns of European consumers fearing food safety issues. Trade dispute settlements between these countries on food imports to the EU and remedies against the European Communities are other substantial factors governing the bilateral and multilateral trade policies between these countries. This study sheds light on various aspects of the particular issue of poultry imports to the EU during the period 1996-2014. First, we analyse the mechanisms of EU market protection through the evolution of tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs), both descriptively and econometrically. Second, we provide bilateral ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs imposed on the imports of poultry to the EU. These AVEs, which are equivalent to tariffs, hint towards the diverse impact of NTMs on various exporters based on their production compatibilities with EU standards. Third, we analyse the quality impact of NTMs, which are also differentiated by the exporting countries. Overall, this detailed study may assist dispute settlement bodies of the World Trade Organisation in analysing cases related to regulatory NTMs for which there is lack of scientific evidence.
    Keywords: EU regulations, non-tariff measures, gravity model, ad valorem equivalents, product quality
    JEL: F13 F14 Q17
    Date: 2017–04
  2. By: Yan Zhang
    Abstract: This paper uses customs transaction data covering all Chinese exporters and the World Bank's antidumping database to investigate how they responded to Latin-American and Caribbean (LAC) antidumping measures during 2000-2012 period. The paper uses the difference-in-differences identification strategy, and finds a substantial trade-dampening effect of these measures at the product level which operates through the intensive margin (i.e., a decrease in export volume per exporter) rather than the extensive margin (i.e., a decrease in the number of exporters) on average. Although we do not find a significant extensive margin effect, we still observe a positive number of exporters exited the LAC market after antidumping measures, specifically, less productive firms and trade intermediaries are more likely to exit the market. The pattern of Chinese exporters exiting the protected market was the same in ARG, BRA, MEX and COL. The antidumping measures taken by different countries had different impacts on Chinese exporters. MEX and BRA antidumping measures not only had an intensive margin but also an extensive margin effect on Chinese exports. ARG antidumping measures only had an intensive margin effect. COL antidumping measures had no effect. The paper also finds that MEX antidumping measures caused a significant increase in the export prices of the affected Chinese products, but no significant increase in the export prices for the other three countries. The paper does not find any shift in the destinations of the affected Chinese exports.
    Keywords: Antidumping Measures, Export Performance, Exporting Firm, Impact evaluation, Productivity Level, Firm performance, Bilateral trade, Manufacturing Exports, Non-tariff Barriers, Export Market, International Trade, The Caribbean, Latin America, China-LAC, Antidumping
    JEL: L25 F14 D22 F13
    Date: 2017–03
  3. By: Kim , Han Sung (Ajou University); Lee , Hongshik (Korea University - Department of Economics); Kang , Moonsung (Korea University - Division of International Studies); Song , Backhoon (Sungshin Women's University)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 2005년 WTO 홍콩 각료회의에서 무역을 위한 원조(AfT: Aid for Trade) 이니셔티브가 채택된 이후 다방면에 걸쳐 국제사회의 AfT는 증가하여 왔다. 실제로 AfT가 ODA에서 차지하는 비중은 2006년 이후 꾸준히 증가하여 2012년에는 전체 ODA의 약 31%를 차지하고 있다. 그러나 이와 같은 AfT가 개발도상국의 무역비용 감소와 수출경쟁력 증가에 실질적으로 기여했는가에 대해서는 다양한 의견이 존재하고 있다. 이에 따라 무역을 위한 원조가 과연 개발도상국의 수출과 성장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지에 대하여 많은 국내외 연구자들의 관심이 집중되고 있다. 이처럼 AfT에 대한 관심이 증가하면서 한국의 AfT 규모 또한 크게 증가하여 DAC 회원국가 중 8위에 해당하는 금액을 지원하고 있으며, 이는 우리나라 전체 ODA의 40%를 차지하고 있다. 그러나 지금까지 한국의 AfT 원조는 절대적인 규모에만 초점을 맞추고 있어 효율적인 자원 배분이 이루어지지 않는다는 문제가 제기되고 있다. 즉 우리가 지원한 AfT 사업이 어떠한 방식으로 사용되었는지, 실제로 공여국과 수원국 사이에 무역량을 증진시키는 데 효과적으로 기여하였는지를 모니터링할 수 있는 연구는 실시되지 않고 있는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 지금까지 한국의 AfT가 실제로 수원국과 공여국 간의 무역을 활성화시켰는지 여부를 실증적으로 분석하고, 앞으로의 AfT가 수원국의 무역을 통한 경제성장에 어떠한 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 한국과 수원국 간의 무역증진에 어떻게 기여할 수 있는지를 분석하고 있다. 이를 위하여 동남아시아국가연합 후발 가입국이고 체제전환국가로 빠른 경제성장을 이룩하고 있는 베트남, 라오스 및 캄보디아를 대상으로 연구를 실시하였다. English Abstract: Since the adoption of the WTO-led Aid for Trade (AfT) initiative in 2005, there has been a steady increase in trade related aid around the world. The share of AfT in total official development assistance (ODA) reached to 31% in 2012. Along with the increase in AfT, there has a slight controversy regarding the impact of AfT on reduction of trade costs and/or expert competitiveness of recipient countries. The Korea's volume of ODA has been increasing, with Korea becoming the 8th largest AfT donor country among DAC member countries; Korean ODA comprised 40% of the AfT itself. Interest regarding AfT, however, has mostly been concerned with the volume of AfT and there was relatively less attention toward its effectiveness. Our study, rather, is focused on the qualitative aspect of AfT; we would like to answer the questions on whether Korea's AfT had positive impacts on recipient countries' trade capacity - meaning our investigations would concern how the AfT contributed to their economic growth and what will be its impact on the trade between Korea and recipient countries. We selected three Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam, Cambodia and Lao PDR, who are late-comers among ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) members and also transition countries with a high economic growth.
    Keywords: AfT; Aid For Trade; Trade; Trade Policy; International Aid; Vietnam; Laos; Cambodia
    Date: 2015–12–30
  4. By: Medalla, Erlinda M.; Mantaring, Melalyn C.
    Abstract: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been working toward the free movement of goods in the region. Although significant progress has been made in the opening up of markets through tariff elimination, addressing the issues on nontariff measures (NTMs) remain. With the reduction in tariffs across the globe, increasing attention has thus shifted to the effects of these NTMs that become simply nontariff barriers (NTBs) to trade. NTMs could be justified for different reasons, such as health, security, environment, and consumer protection. However, they could adversely affect the global and regional production chains by unnecessarily increasing the cost of doing business.This paper reviews existing studies on NTMs for better understanding of NTM implications to international trade, as well as to local business, and to propose some ways forward. For additional insights, it presents the results of the small sample survey (perception) among exporters on the types of NTMs encountered within and outside ASEAN, and the perceived operating cost impact of NTMs. The survey identifies three main NTBs affecting operations of their businesses either within or outside ASEAN: (1) Custom formalities, (2) rules of origin, and (3) technical barriers to trade (TBTs). These are consistent with the findings of an International Trade Center Business Survey on NTMs in the Philippines in 2015-2016. Some of the policy recommendations of the paper are creating a comprehensive and updated database of NTMs, intensive reforms to streamline NTM procedures, improvements in testing laboratories and facilities, accreditation and certification process, and capacity building on what and how to comply with applicable sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and TBTs.
    Keywords: Philippines, nontariff measures, ASEAN, nontariff barriers, trade in goods, NTMs, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade, rules of origin, international trade, accreditation, capacity building
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Mika, Alina
    Keywords: border effect, European Union, gravity, trade
    Date: 2017–04
  6. By: Tadashi Ito (Faculty of International Social Science, Gakushuin University); Toshiyuki Matsuura (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)
    Abstract: Welfare gain through international trade is a cornerstone of international economics literature. However, it is only recently that the data and the methodologies become available to empirically assess such welfare gain. Building on the recently developed methodologies of estimating elasticity of substitution and computing welfare gains from trade, we estimate welfare gains of Japan from its trade liberalization in manufacturing sector. To do this as precisely as possible, the elasticities of substitution for HS 9-digit product code are estimated for various periods of time. The analyses show that Japan's welfare gains from trade liberalization took place especially from the 1990s, and reached eleven percent vis-a-vis the autarky situation.
    Keywords: Trade Liberalization, Welfare gains, Japan
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2017–01–14
  7. By: Choi , Bo Young (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Bang , Ho-Kyung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Boram (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Yoo , Saebyul (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 비관세조치는 “잠재적으로 국제무역에서 거래되는 상품의 수와 가격에 영향을 미치는 등 경제적인 효과가 있을 수 있는 관세 외의 정책적 조치” 로 정의되며, 비관세장벽은 비관세조치 중에서 불필요하게 무역에 장애요인이 되는 조치를 가리킨다. 비관세조치 중 규제적 조치로 분류되는 TBT와 SPS 조치는 건강, 안전과 소비자 후생 등의 공공정책적인 목표를 가지고 있으나, 종종 불필요하게 무역의 장애요인이 되기도 한다. 특히 글로벌 금융위기 이후에 각국이 자국 산업보호를 위해 TBT와 SPS조치를 적극적으로 도입하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 이는 1995년 WTO 출범이후 지금까지 전세계적으로 꾸준히 하락하고 있는 관세율과 대조적인 현상으로 관세장벽을 대신하여 증명하기 어려운 비관세장벽을 통해 자국의 산업을 보호하려 하는 시도로 해석할 수 있다. 이러한 현상은 한중일 3국에서도 나타난다. 특히 우리나라의 주요 교역국인 중국과 일본의 TBT와 SPS조치로 인하여 우리 수출기업이 어려움을 겪는 것으로 조사되어 3국의 TBT와 SPS 현황과 비관세장벽 완화를 위한 협력방안 논의가 중요하다 할 수 있다. 본 보고서에는 특히 한·중·일 3국의 무역특징을 파악하는데 있어 기존 연구에서 많이 사용되어 온 총 액기준 무역통계 이외에도 세계투입산출표(World Input-Output Tables, WIOT)를 함께 살펴봤다. 이는 한·중·일 3국의 경우 여타 지역에 비해 글로벌 가치사슬(global value chain)이 활발한 대표적인 지역으로 거론되고 있기 때문이다. WIOT를 이용한 3국의 부가가치 무역을 계산해보면, 3국 모두 대외수출에서 자국의 부가가치가 줄어든 반면 역외국의 부가가치는 늘어나 그동안 GVC가 심화되어 온 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 이러한 특징은 3국 중에서도 한국에서 명확히 나타났다. 한국의 경우 수출에서 자국의 부가가치가 줄어드는 한편 중국의 부가가치가 빠르게 증가하고 있고, 일본은 반대로 감소하고 있으나 여전히 한국의 수출에서 높은 부가가치 비중을 차지하고 있다. 한편, GVC가 활발히 구축된 지역일수록 비관세장벽이 높을 경우 최종재 수출비용의 관세상당치 수준이 더 빠르게 증가하여 수출에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이에 한·중·일 각국의 관세와 비관세장벽을 살펴본 바, 3국 모두 대외무역에 부과되는 관세수준은 낮아졌으나 비관세조치 건수는 오히려 크게 늘어난 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 비관세조치 중에서도 TBT와 SPS와 관련된 조치가 활발히 시행 혹은 발의되어온 것으로 나타났다. 이는 한·중·일 역내무역의 활성화에 있어 비관세조치, 특히 TBT와 SPS의 중요성을 시사한다. English Abstract: Since the Global Financial Crisis, there is a clear trend that the implementation of non-tariff measures has become more prevalent, implying the possibility of countries' usage of non-tariff measures to protect their own domestic economy. The three Northeast Asian countries, China, Japan and Korea are not an exception, where firm survey results identify TBT and SPS measures as major obstacles to trade. Although many non-tariff measures are legitimate with non-economic objectives such as human health, safety and environment, some non-tariff measures create unnecessary obstacles to trade where these non-tariff measures are called "non-tariff barriers". Hence, it is important for these three countries to build a cooperative system to identify TBT and SPS measures which unnecessarily impede trade. In this report, we analyze the pattern of international trade and non-tariff measures of China, Japan and Korea, and come up with an effective counterplan for these three countries to cooperate in order to identify and lower non-tariff barriers. To examine the trade patterns of China, Japan and Korea, we looked at the World Input-Output Tables (WIOT), along with the gross trade statistics which has been generally used in the literature. The rationale behind this owes to the fact that the region has been one of the areas actively forming global value chains (GVCs). By calculating the three countries' value added trade based on the WIOT, we find the deepening of GVC – all three nations experienced an increase in the foreign value added embodied in goods with decreasing domestic value added. By looking at China, Japan and Korea's tariff and non-tariff measures, we observe a drastic increase in the three nation's non-tariff measures (particularly TBT and SPS-related measures), while average tariff rates has decreased for each country. This highlights the importance of non-tariff measures – specifically TBT and SPS – in facilitating intra-regional trade among China, Japan, and Korea.
    Keywords: Economic Integration; Multilateral Negotiation; Trade Barrier; Nontariff Barrier; Nontariff Measures; NTB; Korea; China; Japan
    Date: 2015–12–30
  8. By: Antoine Berthou (Banque de France); Emmanuel Dhyne (National Bank of Belgium); Matteo Bugamelli (Banca d’Italia); Ana-Maria Cazacu (Banca Nationala a României); Calin-Vlad Demian (European Central Bank); Péter Harasztosi (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); Tibor Lalinsky (National Bank of Slovakia, Research Department); Jaanika Meriküll (Eesti Pank); Filippo Oropallo (ISTAT); Ana Cristina Soares (Banco de Portugal)
    Abstract: This paper provides a new cross-country evaluation of competitiveness,focusing on the linkages between productivity and export performance among European economies. We use the information compiled in the Trade module of CompNet to establish new stylized facts regarding the joint distributions of the firm-level exports performance and productivity in a panel of 15 countries, 23 manufacturing sectors during the 2000’s. We confirm that exporters are more productive than non-exporters. However, this productivity premium is rising with the export experience of firms, with permanent exporters being much more productive than starters. At the intensive margin, we show that both the level and the growth of firm-level exports rise with firm productivity, and that the bulk of aggregate exports in each country are made by a small number of highly productive firms. Finally, we show that during the crisis, the growth of exports by high productive firms sustained the current account adjustment of European “stressed” economies. This last result confirms that the shape of the productivity distribution within each country can have important consequences from the point of view of the dynamics of aggregate trade patterns.
    Keywords: Firm-level exports, productivity, firm heterogeneity
    JEL: F10 F14
    Date: 2016–12
  9. By: Ansgar Belke; Dominik Kronen
    Abstract: This paper estimates the role of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks for EU countries’ exports to the world economy. We examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in ex-ports to some of the most important global export destinations (United States, Japan, Brazil, Russia, and China). For this purpose, we apply a non-linear model, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area – analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on exports is estimated based on the period from 1995M1 to 2015M12. Looking at some of the main export destinations of our selected EU member countries, the United States, Japan and some of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia and China), we identify significant hysteretic effects for a large part of the EU member countries’ exports. We find that their export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange. To check for robustness we estimate export equations for limited samples (a) excluding the recent financial crisis and (b) excluding the period up to the burst of the dotcom bubble and September 11th. In addition, we employ an economic policy uncertainty variable and an ex-change rate uncertainty variable as determinants of the width of the area of weak reaction of exports. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit, with economic policy uncertainty dominating exchange rate uncer-tainty. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on the EU member countries’ exports.
    Keywords: export demand, global economy, hysteresis, policy uncertainty, BRICs, play-hysteresis, real exchange rate, switching/spline regression
    JEL: F14 C51
    Date: 2017–05
  10. By: Lee , Seungrae (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kang , Jungu (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Hyuk-Hwang (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Park , Ji Hyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Joun Won (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee, Jumi (Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 개방화의 진전으로 세계경제환경이 하루가 다르게 변화하고 있는 가운데 선진국과 개발도상국을 막론하고 모든 국가들이 자본유입, 기술이전, 고용창출 등을 통해 자국의 산업발전을 도모할 수 있는 외국인직접투자(FDI: Foreign Direct Investment) 유치를 위해 다각적인 노력을 기울이고 있다. 특히 세계 FDI 규모는 투자 진입장벽 완화와 투자 인센티브 제공 등의 적극적인 FDI 유치정책에 힘입어 유입액 기준으로 2004년에는 6,480억 달러에서 2014년에 1조 2,300억 달러를 기록함으로서 2004년 대비 약 90% 증가하였고, 이러한 추세는 향후 2년간 계속될 것으로 예상되고 있다. 우리나라 역시 1998년 외환위기 이후 정부의 적극적인 투자유치정책에 따라 외국인 투자기업의 국내진출이 활발해지면서 FDI가 증가하여 2014년 FDI 유입액은 신고기준으로 전년대비 31% 증가한 190억 달러를 기록하였고 도착기준으로는 전년대비 17% 증가한 115억 달러를 기록하여 누적 신고금액과 도착금액 모두 사상 최대실적을 보였다. 이와 같이 FDI가 규모 측면에서 최대실적을 보이고 있지만 이는 다른 OECD 국가들과 중국, 인도, 인도네시아, 태국, 브라질 등의 개발도상국들에 비해서는 여전히 낮은 수준이다. 특히 한국의 FDI 유치실적은 2014년 현재 GDP 대비 0.7% 수준으로 주요 선진국 및 개발도상국의 6~10% 수준에 비하면 여전히 낮은 수준이다. 또한 UNCTAD Division of Investment and Enterprise에 따르면 한국의 투자유치 실적은 투자유치 잠재력에 비해 현저하게 떨어지는 수준(2000년대 이후 투자유치 실적은 30~32위, 투자유치 잠재력은 17~18위)인 것으로 나타나고 있다. 본 연구보고서는 국내외 선행연구 조사와 실증분석을 통해 국내와 세계 FDI 결정요인을 분석하고 평가하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 특히 지금까지 FDI 결정요인을 분석한 국내외 선행연구들을 조사하고 도출된 결정요인을 다시 경제적 특징을 나타내는 변수와 비경제적 특징을 나타내는 변수로 구분하여 각 변수를 중심으로 과거부터 현재까지의 FDI 관련 연구들이 어떻게 진화되었는지 검토하였으며, 우리나라 산업의 투자진입장벽을 조사·분석한 결과를 토대로 Hoekman(1995) 방식을 활용하여 산업별 투자개방지수를 도출, 국내 FDI에 미치는 효과를 실증 분석하였다. English Abstract: Along with the rapid process of trade liberalization, developed and developing countries began to put forth a multilateral effort into promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) for the purpose of capital inflows, technology transfer, and job creation. By implementing FDI promotion policies such as providing investment incentives and lowering investment barriers, global FDI inflows have increased constantly over time. In case of Korea, the size of FDI inflows and number of foreign invested companies dramatically increased after the government implemented foreign investment promotion policy to overcome the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and reached its highest peak in 2014. While FDI inflows became an essential part of domestic economy, they are still considered to be marginal when compared to those of developed and also developing countries. Taking into account of the importance of FDI inflows in Korean economy yet marginal FDI performance with respect to its potential, therefore, it is important to acknowledge the determinants that promote and hinder the FDI in Korea. This report analyzes and evaluates the determinants of FDI by investigating prior foreign and domestic trade studies and by performing the empirical analysis. In particular, we estimate for the determinants of FDI by dividing the analysis based on FDI patterns (Greenfield FDI and M&A FDI). In particular, based on the results from analyzing the changes in investment barrier across domestic industries over time, we derive FDI openness index for each industry sector and estimate its effects on different patterns of FDI inflows into domestic industries by using Korean industry-level FDI data.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Local Industrial linkage
    Date: 2015–12–30
  11. By: Choi , Jangho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Junyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Im , So Jeong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Choi , Yoojeong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 중국은 2002~11년 중 연평균 9%가 넘는 고도성장을 거듭해 왔으며, 북한은 무역을 통해 중국 고성장의 혜택을 입으며 경제 안정기를 누렸다. 2000년대 북한은 무연탄과 철광석 수출을 통해 1990년대의 경제난을 극복하고 중국과의 경제협력을 성장의 동력으로 활용하기 시작한다. 중국경제에 대한 의존도는 중국에 대한 자원수출 확대로 경제성장을 추구하려는 북한의 내적인 동인과 국제사회의 대북제재라는 외부요인에 따라 빠르게 심화되었다. 그런 가운데 2012년부터 중국의 경제성장 둔화가 북․중 무역의 구조적인 변화를 야기하면서 북․중간 경협은 새로운 전환기를 맞이하고 있다. 본 연구는 중국의 성장 둔화로 인한 북․중 교역환경 변화가 북․중 경제협력에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 2000년대 중국 경제성장의 수혜로 경제안정을 누리던 북한의 경제와 무역이 현재 어떤 모습을 하고 있는지 점검하고, 2012년부터 시작된 중국경기 둔화가 새로운 도약을 꿈꾸는 북한에게 어떤 영향을 미치는 지를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 북․중 경제협력을 국경을 마주한 국가 간 분업체계로 의제하고, 분업체계 형성과 심화 요인을 이론적으로 규명한 뒤, 중국 중앙정부와 랴오닝 및 지린 지방정부가 경기둔화의 충격을 완화하기 위해 시행한 일련의 정책으로부터 이런 요인이 어떤 영향을 받아 북․중 분업체계 형태를 변화시켜가는지 밝혔다. 본 연구가 갖는 차별성은 자료와 방법론에 있다. 먼저 연구 자료는 기존 연구에서 사용되지 않던 새로운 중국 세관별 북․중 무역자료를 분석하였다. 이를 통해 북․중 무역이 단순교역에서 위탁가공과 중간재 교역으로 발전하는 질적인 변화를 보이고 있으며, 북한이 국제사회의 대북제재에 대응하여 무역의 일부를 중국을 경유한 대한, 대일 무역으로 우회하고 있을 가능성을 밝혔다. 연구방법에서는 북․중 경협을 분석하는 이론적 틀을 제시하고, 수차례에 걸쳐 중국 현지조사를 실시함으로써 차별화 하였다. English Abstract: From 2002 to 2011 China has maintained an average annual growth of over 9%, and North Korea as a result enjoyed economic stability benefiting from China's growth. In the 2000s North Korea goes beyond overcoming economic difficulties in the 1990s through anthracite and iron ore export, and begins to utilize its economic cooperation with China as a tool for its economic growth. Its dependency on Chinese economy quickly intensified due to the internal motivation for North Korea's aspiration of economic growth through expansion of resource exports to China as well as external motivational factor of intranational economic sanctions. However, beginning from 2010, North Korea and China's economic cooperation faced a turning-point. China's economic slowdown induced a structural change in North Korea–China trade since 2012 and led to a new pattern of North Korea-China relations. This research aims to analyze the effect that recently facilitated North Korea and China's economic relations have on North Korean economy and find the implications this has on inter-Korean economic integration and the development of Northeast Asian economic community. For thorough analysis of the economic cooperation between North Korea and China, we defined what exactly international economic cooperation stands for, theorized various factors that create and facilitate this cooperation, and analyzed how changes in trade environment and China's economic policy towards North Korea due to China’s economic slowdown impacts these various factors in terms of North Korea China trade and economic cooperation projects. The originality of this research is in the data and methodology it adapts. The Chinese customs data from 2010 to 2014, consisted of 8 digit HS code product level list by year, country, import and export, custom districts, as well as customs regime categories enabled us to analyze the qualitative change in North Korea-China trade from simple trade to higher shares of process trade and intermediate goods trade. As for the methodology, we have provided a theoretical framework analyzing the division of labor between countries and fieldwork results. Our theoretical framework delineates the sectors and incentives where international economic cooperation occurs which is used in our analysis of the North Korea-China economic cooperation. As for the fieldwork, we tried to enhance the quality of the research by interviewing people who are indirectly and directly involved in trade and business with North Korea in the Chinese border region.
    Keywords: Economic Cooperation; Economy North Korea; Division Of Work System North Korea; Division Of Work System China; North Korea Economic Cooperation; China; North Korea
    Date: 2015–12–30
  12. By: Kühn, Stefan.; Viegelahn, Christian,
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of foreign barriers to goods and services trade on domestic jobs that are directly or indirectly related to trade flows. Using the ILO’s recently published estimates of the number of jobs in global supply chains, the empirical analysis in this paper largely confirms predictions derived from a theoretical model closely calibrated to actual data from international input-output tables. First, it identifies a sizeable cross- border impact of barriers to manufacturing trade not only on manufacturing jobs, but also on services jobs. Second, service trade barriers affect the number of jobs in both services and manufacturing. Third, spill-over effects of trade policy in one sector to jobs in other sectors have become more important over time. Based on this evidence, the paper shows the labour market consequences of the increased interconnectedness of countries and sectors through global supply chains, suggesting that trade policy can have significant external effects on foreign labour markets.
    Keywords: value chains, globalization, trade policy, employment
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Gumpert, Anna (University of Munich)
    Abstract: This paper provides the first in-depth study of the organization of knowledge in multinational firms. In the theory, knowledge is a costly input for firms that they can acquire at their headquarters or their production plants. Communication costs impede the access of the plants to headquarter knowledge. The model shows that multinational firms systematically acquire more knowledge at both their foreign and domestic plants than non-multinationals if their foreign plants face higher communication costs with headquarters than their domestic plants. This theoretical prediction helps understand why multinational firms pay higher wages to workers than non-multinational firms, and why their sales decrease across space. The empirical analyses show that higher communication costs indeed decrease multinational firms\' foreign sales. Consistent with model-specific comparative statics, the decrease is stronger in sectors with less predictable production processes. Novel data on corporate transferees allow shedding light on one tool of multinational firms\' organization of knowledge.
    Keywords: multinational firm; knowledge hierarchy; organization; geography of FDI; multinational wage premium; corporate transferees;
    JEL: D21 D24 F21 F23
    Date: 2017–04–25
  14. By: Helble, Matthias (Asian Development Bank Institute); Shepherd, Benjamin (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Trade in health products has been flourishing in recent years as the demand for better health has been growing throughout the world. At the same time, trade in health products is hampered by substantive trade barriers. In this paper, we present evidence that countries around the world still apply tariffs and nontariff measures that increase prices and limit the availability of health-related products such as pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and medical equipment. The case for liberalizing trade in these products is therefore strong. In addition, we show that improving trade facilitation performance, using the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement as a starting point, can be linked to improved handling of health-related products such as vaccines which, in turn, would boost usage. In the last part of the paper, we study the price differences for insulin across countries. We observe that the price of insulin has various determinants, one of them being open trade: the higher the level of competition between manufacturers, the lower the price of insulin. In summary, lowering trade barriers on health products can make a substantive contribution to building up health systems and lowering out-of-pocket payments of patients.
    Keywords: trade; trade barriers; health products; pharmaceuticals; tariffs; non-tariff measures; trade liberalization; WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement; vaccine; insulin
    JEL: F14 I11 I15 I18
    Date: 2017–01–23
  15. By: Patrick Alexander
    Abstract: Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Meanwhile, specialization across stages of production, or “vertical specialization," has been largely ignored in these models. In this paper, I provide evidence that vertical specialization is a salient feature in the international trade data, which implies that the assumption made in standard models is inaccurate. I then develop a model with multi-stage production where country-level productivity differences provide a basis for vertical specialization and additional global gains from trade beyond those currently accounted for in standard models. I quantify the gains from vertical specialization according to the model. Despite the importance of vertical specialization in the data, I find that the average gains from trade are only slightly higher than the gains suggested by standard models with multi-stage production. Moreover, much of the impact of across-stage specialization is largely offset by across-sector intermediate input linkages. These results suggest that vertical specialization is not the source of missing gains from trade that have recently confounded trade economists.
    Keywords: Economic models, International topics, Trade Integration
    JEL: F11 F14 F60
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Suh , Jin Kyo (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Oh , Soo Hyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Park , Ji Hyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Min-Sung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Chang-Soo (Kyung Hee University)
    Abstract: 2004년 기본골격 합의 도출 이후 특별한 성과를 내지 못한 채 계속 표류해온 DDA 협상이 인도네시아 발리(Bali)에서 개최된 제9차 WTO 각료회의(MC9: The 9th Ministerial Conference)를 통해 12년 만에 발리 패키지를 도출하는 성과를 이루어냈다. The 9th WTO Ministerial Conference in Bali reached agreement in December 2013 on a package of measures that form a small component of the much wider Doha Development Round agenda. The study seeks to review the outcomes of the Conference in terms of their possible impact on the world economy, including Korean economy.
    Keywords: Free Trade Agreement; Economic Impacts; FTA; Doha Development Round
    Date: 2017–03–21
  17. By: Choi , Nakgyoon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Park , Soonchan (Kongju National University)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 최근 무역 및 투자 자유화에 따라 중간재 교역이 활발하게 이루어지고 글로벌 경쟁이 첨예화되면서 가치사슬이 지리적으로 분화되고 있다. 이에 따라 생산공정과 직무에 특화하는 생산분할 네트워크가 자리잡게 되었다. 특히 제품 디자인, 원자재 및 부품 조달, 조립생산, 유통, 애프터서비스와 같은 생산 과정들이 지리적으로 세밀하게 분해되고 있다. 예를 들어 미국의 애플사는 아이폰의 디자인을 담당하고, 제품 생산에 필요한 소재 및 부품을 독일, 일본, 한국, 대만 등에서 조달한다. 애플사는 주문자생산방식으로 중국에서 아이폰을 생산한 후에 유통 및 애프터서비스 등을 통해 부가가치를 창출하고 있다. 우리나라에서도 점차 국내 본사가 제품 디자인 및 부품 조달을 담당하고 외국의 현지 공장에서 제품을 조립생산한 후에 세계시장에 유통시키는 추세가 강화되고 있다. 기업의 글로벌 가치사슬활동이 심화되면서 주요국은 글로벌 가치사슬이 세계무역과 투자뿐 아니라 성장, 고용, 소득분배 등에 미치는 영향에 대해 관심을 가지게 되었다. 수출의 부가가치는 제품 디자인, 원자재 및 부품 조달, 조립생산, 유통, 애프터서비스와 같은 가치사슬에서 결정된다. 최근에는 조립생산이 부가가치에서 차지하는 비중이 낮아지는 반면 그 밖의 가치사슬이 차지하는 부가가치비율이 높아지고 있으며 생산단계가 길수록, 다시 말해 공정이 복잡할수록 해당되는 가치사슬의 부가가치 비율도 높아지는 추세이다. 수출을 많이 하는 것이 중요한 것이 아니라 어떤 직무에 참여하여 부가가치를 높일 수 있는가의 문제가 점차 중요해지고 있다. 이에 따라 글로벌 가치사슬이 심화되면서 수출의 부가가치가 국가별로 어떤 차이를 나타내는지에 대한 분석이 필요하게 되었다. 또한 국제생산분할이 가속화되고 있는 전자, 운송기기, 기계, 금속 등과 같은 제조업과 도소매 및 운송서비스, 금융ㆍ통신서비스 등 서비스산업에서 가치사슬 네트워크가 어떻게 변화하고 있는지를 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 글로벌 가치사슬에 대한 국제적 관심이 높아진 것은 수출의 부가가치가 생산분할의 글로벌 시스템에 참여하는 경제와 그렇지 못한 경제 간에 큰 차이를 보이기 때문이다. 이에 따라 글로벌 가치사슬에서 부가가치를 창출하는 요인은 무엇이며 비교우위를 업그레이드하는 정책방안은 무엇인지를 모색할 필요성이 높아졌다. 이러한 문제의식하에 본 연구는 글로벌 가치사슬에서 수출의 부가가치가 구성요소별로 어떻게 변화하고 있으며, 주요국 및 산업별로는 어떤 추세를 보이는가를 살펴보고자 한다. English Abstract: As global production networks proliferate, assembly processes tend to create less value added than other activities along value chains such as design, research and development (R&D), distribution, and after-sale services. In addition, domestic value added in gross exports turn out to be smaller than foreign value added in gross exports. As a result, which tasks along global value chains a company decides to participate in has become more important than how much a company exports. In other words, companies pay more attention to value added than gross exports. This study decomposes the value added in gross exports into its components including domestic value added and foreign value added. Specifically, we exclude transaction costs such as net taxes on products for this study, which accounted for about 3 percent of total gross world exports from 1995 to 2011 on average. This study indicates that the share of Korean domestic value added in exports to exports in gross value decreased from 69.9 percent in 1995 to 55.4 percent in 2011, comparable to the shrinkage in the world average from 83.5 percent to 78.3 percent during the same period. Domestic value added in exports returned to Korea increased from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent while domestic value added reexported to third countries rose from 12.7 percent to 13.8 percent during the same period. On the contrary, foreign value added in exports increased substantially from 22.7 percent to 37.8 percent. This result reveals that Korean exports of parts and raw material have been utilized in a relatively small degree, while foreign components imported to Korea have been utilized for Korean exports in a relatively large degree.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains; Export Added Value; Gross Output
    Date: 2015–12–30
  18. By: Kim , Jeong-Gon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Na , Seung Kwon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Jang , Jong-Moon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Sung Hee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Minyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 인터넷을 통한 국경간 거래 또는 이전 대상으로서 유형재화 뿐만 아니라, 디지털재화, 그리고 개인정보를 포함한 각종 정보의 중요성이 날로 높아지고 있다. 이러한 배경에서 이 연구는 최근 새롭게 부각되고 있는 국경간 디지털 상거래의 쟁점을 식별하고, 관련 산업 또는 분야의 잠재력을 검토하였다. 특히 핵심 쟁점인 국경간 데이터 이동, 디지털 지식재산권, 그리고 역외 인터넷 서비스 공급자에 대한 과세와 관련된 쟁점을 분석하여 정책 대응방안을 제안하고, 아울러 최근 공개된 TPP 전자상거래 협정의 내용을 분석하여 우리나라의 대응방향과 과제를 짚어보았다. 제2장에서는 국제 디지털 상거래에 대한 국제논의와 주요 이론, 그리고 경제적 파급력을 검토하여 디지털 상거래의 개념과 범위, 그리고 관련 쟁점을 식별하였다. 디지털 상거래는 인터넷을 통한 주문에 기초하여 정의되며, 거래 대상은 상품과 서비스(디지털 전송가능 서비스), 상품과 서비스 어디에도 분류하기 힘든 디지털재화가 존재한다. 그리고 이에 더하여 인터넷 상으로 전송되는 각종 정보가 있다. 제3장에서는 국경간 데이터 이동에 대한 국제 논의와 주요쟁점을 분석하였다. 국경간 데이터 이동은 자유로운 정보의 흐름과 개인정보 보호라는 목표간 균형을 모색하는 것이 핵심이다. 이에 각국 정부는 OECD, APEC 등 국제기구의 관련지침을 토대로 다양한 제도를 통해 이를 실현해가고 있으나, 정책방향과 접근방식은 국가별로 상당한 차이를 보인다. 제4장에서는 인터넷 기술의 발달과 더불어 새로운 쟁점이 제기되는 분야인 디지털 지식재산권의 주요 이슈와 국제논의 동향을 살펴보았다. 일반적으로 디지털 재화의 공공재적 특징은 시장실패 가능성을 높이고 기존의 지식재산권의 범주로 권리보호가 어려운 측면이 존재한다. 제5장에서는 OECD 등 국제적 논의에 기초하여 국경간 디지털 상거래에 수반되는 조세관련 쟁점을 도출하고, 한국의 여건을 검토하였다. 조세분야의 핵심쟁점은 고정사업장 규정(직접세), 부가가치세 징수(간접세), 과세대상으로서의 디지털 재화의 범위 규정 등이다. 최근 타결된 TPP 전자상거래 협정은 디지털 상거래의 새로운 규범을 제시하고 있다. TPP 전자상거래 협정문을 검토한 결과, 국경간 정보 이전, 컴퓨팅 시설 현지화 조치 금지, 소스코드 요구 공개 금지 등 주요 쟁점에 대해 우리나라는 전향적인 입장을 취할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. 다만 높은 수준의 국제 규범 참여와 더불어 새로운 ICT 산업의 발전 기반을 다지는 한편, 관련 국내 정책과 제도의 개선을 반드시 병행할 필요가 있다. English Abstract: Cross-border transactions of intangible goods/services and information are rapidly increasing, and raise new issues in terms of both domestic and international rules. This study defines digital trade and identifies issues of cross-border digital trade and its economic potentials. Especially we focus on three major issues of cross-border digital trade: cross-border data transfer, IPRs and taxation issues. Chapter 2 defines digital trade and categorizes the relevant issues by examining international debates, economic theories, and empirical literature. Digital trade is commercial transactions conducted over internet by methods designed for receiving or placing of orders. Payment and delivery do not have to be conducted over internet. Subjects of digital trade consist of goods, services(digitally deliverable services), digital products that cannot be categorized neither goods nor services. Chapter 3 covers issues on cross-border data flows and its implications. It is essential to balance between freer data flows and personal information protection. Countries has introduced different policy measures to regulate data flows across borders and data protection. Chapter 4 examines the trend of international discussions as well as major issues of digital IPRs, where debates arise along with the development of internet technology. In general, due to the characteristics of digital products as public goods, there is a high possibility of market failure, and it is difficult to protect rights with the existing IPR regulations. Chapter 5 draws core taxation issues of international digital trade, and examines them in the context of Korea. Major issues are permanent establishment rule(direct tax), effective VAT collection(indirect tax), and characterization of taxation scope. In terms of international trade policy, TPP(Trans-Pacific Partnership)'s Electronic Commerce chapter suggests new rules on global digital trade. In general, Korea has conditions to occupy a strong position to major issues such as privacy protection, cross-border information transfer, location of computing facilities, and requirement of softwares' source codes. Nevertheless, it is necessary to improve domestic regulations and establish a strategy to build up core ICT industries' competitiveness.
    Keywords: Digital Commerce; IPRs Intellectual Property Rights; Digital Intellectual Property Rights
    Date: 2015–12–30
  19. By: No , Su Yeon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Oh , Jonghyuk (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Pak , Jinhee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Hanna (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 중국이 중속성장 시대의 지속가능한 경제발전을 위한 동력으로 서비스업의 역할을 강조하는 가운데 한·중 자유무역협정(FTA)이 발효(2015년 12월)됨에 따라 한국의 중국 서비스시장 진출 및 협력에 대한 기대가 높아지고 있다. 이 연구는 중국 시진핑 정부가 추진하는 서비스 시장 개방전략의 변화를 상하이 자유무역시험구 사례를 중심으로 분석하고, 중국과의 서비스분야 협력을 위한 한국 정부와 기업에 대한 시사점을 제공하고 있다. 제2장에서는 중국 서비스업의 발전현황과 주요정책을 분석하고, 서비스시장 개방전략의 변화가 필요한 이유를 제시하였다. 서비스업이 중국경제에서 차지하는 위상은 12차 5개년 규획시기(2011~2015년)에 크게 높아졌다. 3차 산업이 GDP에서 차지하는 비중이 2012년 처음으로 2차 산업을 추월한 이후 2014년에는 48.1%로 꾸준히 높아졌다. 3차 산업이 중국의 전체 고용자 및 외국인직접투자에서 차지하는 비중은 각각 2011년과 2010년부터 3개 산업부문 중 1위를 차지하였다. 제3장에서는 연구대상인 금융, 의료, 법률, 교육, 관광, 콘텐츠 6대 서비스분야를 중심으로 중국 서비스시장의 개방현황을 평가하고, 서비스시장 개방전략의 변화를 분석하였다. 중국의 서비스분야는 대체로 2001년 WTO 가입을 전후로 개방수준이 크게 제고되었으나, 2005년 개정된 DDA 양허안에서는 큰 폭의 변화가 없었다. 한국과 중국의 개방도를 비교하면 금융, 콘텐츠분야의 경우 한국의 개방도가 높으나, 의료, 법률, 교육, 관광은 중국이 한국보다 개방도가 높다. 제4장에서는 제3장에서 제시한 대외개방전략을 대표하는 사례로 상하이 자유무역시험구를 선정하여 6개 분야의 개방조치를 분석하였다. 현재까지 상하이시험구에서 진행된 분야별 개방조치를 분석한 결과, 파격적인 조치는 발견되지 않았다. 법률서비스의 개방조치는 외국 법률사무소가 기대하는 수준, 즉 중국측과의 동업 또는 합작, 중국 변호사의 직접 고용 등에 미치지 못하고 있어 실효성이 떨어진다. 의료서비스는 외국인 독자의 의․병원 설립을 일시 허용했다가 다시 제한함으로써 과거로 회귀한 상태이다. 제5장에서는 상하이 자유무역시험구의 서비스 시장 개방조치에 대한 총평과 함께 향후 중국 서비스시장의 개방이 우리 정부 및 기업에 주는 시사점을 제시하였다. 상하이 시험구에서 서비스분야에 대한 개방이 예상보다 지체되는 이유는 상하이 시험구의 본질이 개방보다는 개혁의 성격이 더 강하고, 지방정부 주도의 개혁개방에 한계가 있기 때문이다. English Abstract: As China emphasizes the role of service sectors in achieving medium-to-high level of economic development and bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) between Korea and China comes into effect in December 2015, the Korean government and companies expect to extend the opportunity to enter the domestic service market of China. This study considers the market-opening strategy for China's service sectors is changing during the 12th Five-year Plan period (2011 to 2015). Based on the results from the case study of Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone (PFTZ), the study evaluates the level of market openness for China's service sectors and provides suggestions for furthering Korea-China cooperation in the service sectors.
    Keywords: Service Market China; Service Industry China; Korea; China
    Date: 2015–12–30
  20. By: Görg, Holger (Kiel Institute for the World Economy); Hanley, Aoife (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
    Abstract: We investigate whether firms' "global engagement", either in the form of exporting or opening up affiliates abroad, is related to the change in their management performance. Using new and unique data from a recent large scale firm survey of management practices in Germany, we calculate management scores for firms as in Bloom et al. (2013). These indicate how structured management is in a given firm. We find that switching into exporting, and to a lesser degree opening up affiliates abroad, is related to improving management performance in the sense of firms applying more structured management practices.
    Keywords: management practices, global engagement, exporting, outward investment
    JEL: F2 L2 M2
    Date: 2017–03
  21. By: Choi , Jangho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lim , Sooho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Rhee , Jung-kyun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Im , So Jeong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 이 연구는 지금까지 이루어진 대북제재의 역사와 내용, 쟁점을 살펴보고 대북제재가 북한과 그 주변국의 무역 구도를 어떻게 바꾸어 놓았는지 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 바탕으로 북한의 핵개발을 효과적으로 저지하기 위한 한국정부의 정책방안을 제시하였다. 이 연구의 새로운 기여는 첫째, 대북제재가 북한무역에 미친 영향을 중단ㆍ대체ㆍ우회ㆍ창조로 구분하고 이를 실증 분석했다는 점, 둘째, 이를 통해 대북제재 이후 북한의 대중 무역 의존도 증가는 북ㆍ중 양국 무역 증가로만 설명할 수 없으며, 북한-중국-제3국의 우회무역도 포함하고 있다는 점, 셋째, 본 연구에서 정립한 개념들을 현지조사를 통해 재확인함으로써 연구의 정합성을 높였다는 점이다. 한반도 비핵화는 남북관계뿐 아니라 동북아 지역의 평화로운 공존을 위해서 반드시 달성해야 하는 과제이다. 이 연구가 디딤돌이 되어 대북정책 수립에 유용하게 활용될 수 있기를 기대한다. English Abstract: The international community's sanctions are getting tighter due to North Korea's continued nuclear missile tests in January and September 2016. This report aims to examine the impact of sanctions against North Korea on its neighboring countries' trade. First, in the 2nd chapter we analyzed the history, main contents, and issues of multilateral and bilateral sanctions against North Korea. In the 3rd chapter we categorized North Korea's trade into termination, substitution, detour, creation, and provided empirical analysis using trade dataIt is necessary to clarify the concept of detour trade among the concepts of termination, substitution, detour, and creation in trade as a result of sanctions. In general, detour trade(sanction target country-3rd country-sanction sender country) is a trade that makes a detour via a 3rd country in order to avoid sanctions by the sanction sender country, which is based on illegality. However, detour trade concept used in this research is similar to the usual usage of the term in that it maintains the trade route using a detour, but is different in that it does not necessarily need to be illegal. In this research detour trade encompasses both legal and illegal trade. Legal detour trade is trade that abides by the customary rules of origin. For example, if an item that is traded on a detour from North Korea to a 3rd country via China is 60% produced by China and 40% by North Korea, then its origin is legally China. Therefore in this case even if the item had been in part manufactured in North Korea, it will not be subject to sanctions. In the 4th chapter we surveyed the history of cross-border business in the North Korea-China border region and how the how the main actors and locations(Dandong and Yanbian) of the cross-border business changed after the sanctions, and how export items changed through trade statistics analysis. Finally in the 5th chapter we analyzed the future scenario, issues and implications of sanctions against North Korea.
    Date: 2016–12–30
  22. By: Rob Dellink; Hyunjeong Hwang (OECD); Elisa Lanzi; Jean Chateau
    Abstract: This report provides an analysis of how climate change damages may affect international trade in the coming decades and how international trade can help limit the costs of climate change. It analyses the impacts of climate change on trade considering both direct effects on infrastructure and transport routes and the indirect economic impacts resulting from changes in endowments and production. A qualitative analysis with a literature review is used to present the direct effects of climate change. The indirect impacts of climate change damages on trade are analysed with the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with global coverage and sector-specific international trade flows. By building on the analysis in the OECD (2015) report "The Economic Consequences of Climate Change", the modelling analysis presents a plausible scenario of future socioeconomic developments and climate damages, to shed light on the mechanisms at work in explaining how climate change will affect trade.
    Keywords: CGE model, Trade and climate change, Trade and environment
    JEL: C68 F17 F18 O44 Q56
    Date: 2017–04–29
  23. By: Franck Viroleau
    Abstract: This paper aims at making explicit the micro foundations of the government's preference function in an influence-driven political economy model. It also addresses the behavior functions of domestic and foreign firms in their attempts to gain policy favors. These favors are granted by means of subsidies. In our model, the government simultaneously chooses three interdependent policy instruments under the political influence of domestic and foreign firms. Thus, we create a political market characterized by utility-maximizing and profit-maximizing behaviors of its actors, which takes place in a computable general equilibrium model. Endowed with these features, this model fills a gap in the literature. However, our results demonstrate that the model is only valid under a reasonable set of constraints on its parameters. Finally, this paper formally shows the key role of the subsidy elasticity of political cost in limiting the distortions created by the influence of interest groups.
    Keywords: Lobbying, Public Policies, Computable General Equilibrium Model.
    JEL: C68 D72 D78 F13 H32 P16
    Date: 2017
  24. By: Broll, Udo; Mukherjee, Soumyatanu; Sensarma, Rudra
    Abstract: In this companion paper to Broll and Mukherjee (2017), we empirically analyse how exchange rate volatilities affect firms optimal production and exporting decisions. The firms elasticity of risk aversion determines the direction of the impact of exchange rate risk on exports. Based on a flexible utility function that incorporates all possible risk preferences, a unique structurally estimable equation is used to estimate the risk aversion elasticities for a panel of Indian service sector (non-financial) firms over 2004-2015, using the quantile regression method.
    Keywords: exports,exchange rate volatility,risk aversion
    JEL: D21 D81 F10 F31
    Date: 2017
  25. By: Juliane Proelss (Concordia University); Denis Schweizer (Concordia University); Volker Seiler (Paderborn University)
    Abstract: Rare earth elements (REEs) have gained increasing attention recently for several key reasons: 1) they are vital to many strategic industries, 2) they are relatively scarce, 3) they frequently exhibit high price fluctuations, 4) China holds a quasi-monopoly on their mining, and 5) China’s REE policy, which was overly restrictive and led to a formal complaint from the U.S., Japan, and the EU at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012. This paper investigates whether the announcement of a WTO dispute resolution case has the power to fundamentally change market dynamics. We find empirical support for this notion, because REE prices exhibit a structural break around the announcement of the WTO dispute, and show lower variance ratios for all tested REEs afterward. This indicates a tendency toward efficiency, although REE prices still do not follow a random walk. Similarly, we find that the stock price informativeness of companies in the REE industry increases after the announcement, reflecting more firm-specific than marketwide information and less governmental influence. Finally, we show that the model uncertainty for option pricing models decreases, which we measure by the lower pricing differences among them.
    Keywords: Market Efficiency, Rare Earth Elements, Stock Price Informativeness, Structural Break Tests, Variance Ratio Tests, World Trade Organization (WTO)
    JEL: C22 C58 F13 G14 G18 G28 Q02 Q38
    Date: 2017–04
  26. By: Kwak , Sungil (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Chang-Soo (Kyung Hee University); Cheong , Jae Wan (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Jae-Ho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Jegook (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: AEC는 2015년 말 출범할 예정이지만 실질적 경제공동체 형태를 달성하지는 못할 것 같다. 다만 출범은 그동안의 통합노력을 정리하고 부진한 부분을 식별하는 계기가 될 전망이다. 아세안이 지난 2014년 네피도에서 아세안공동체의 향후 10년 추진비전(Nay Pyi Taw Declaration on the ASEAN Community's Post-2015 Vision)을 제시한 것은 2015년 말 출범할 아세안 경제공동체(AEC)가 장기적으로 보완돼야 한다는 인식을 나타낸 것이다. 따라서 AEC가 경제공동체로서 역내 무역 및 투자 구조에 미치는 영향은 출범 초기에는 미약하거나 없을 수도 있다. 그러나 회원국 간에 제도적 통일성이 완비되고, 통합을 위해 국가 간 조정되고 있는 제도와 정책이 실질적으로 이행된다면 점진적으로 통합의 기대효과를 누릴 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 2장에서는 아세안 경제통합의 전개를 통시적으로 살펴보고 새롭게 출범할 아세안 경제공동체에 대한 주변국의 대응을 살펴보았다. 1967년 창설된 아세안은 경제협력보다는 주로 정치적 목적에 주안점을 두고 있었기에 경제협력에 대한 관심은 상대적으로 적었다. 1970년대 후반에야 아세안은 경제협력 및 통합에 관심을 두었다. 그리고 1992년에 아세안자유무역협정(AFTA)를 이행하면서 본격적으로 경제통합을 추진하였다.3장에서는 아세안 경제공동체(AEC) 창설의 전개과정을 경제통합 필요성 인식기(1단계, 1993~2001), 경제통합노력의 발현기(2단계, 2002~2007), 경제통합 구체화기(3단계, 2007~2015)로 구분하여 각 기간의 특징과 변화추이를 분석했다. 역내무역비중은 부침이 있었지만 90년대 이후 꾸준히 증가해 오다가 3단계(경제통합 구체화기)에 들어서면서 정체되었다. 이는 새로운 물품무역협정인 아세안 물품무역에 관한협정(ATIGA)를 아세안이 발효시켰음에도 역외국가와의 ‘아세안 1 FTA’의 체결로 인해 역외 무역비중이 큰 폭으로 증가했기 때문이다. 무역보다 규모 면에서 상대적으로 작다는 점을 고려하면 역내무역을 증가하기 위해서는 투자국의 역내국가 간 생산네트워크 확대가 필요하다. 즉 아세안 국가의 GVC 참여는 선진국의 FDI 유입을 통해 이루어진 것이므로 투자국이 역내 투자조정을 해야 역내교역이 증가할 수 있음을 시사한다. 통시적으로 보았을 때 외부로부터의 FDI 유입이 없다면 아세안 역내 무역․투자구조에 변화가 거의 없음을 확인했다. 이런 상황에서 AEC라는 경제공동체가 출범하고 자유화 조치에 합의를 이룬다 해서 역내 무역 및 투자구조가 변화할지는 의문이다. 이 질문에 대한 정책 실험을 위해 4장에서 CGE 모형을 활용하여 AEC가 출범되었을 때 역내 무역 및 투자 구조, 그리고 산업구조가 어떻게 변화하는지를 살펴보았다. 모형으로부터 AEC 형성이 각국 GDP에 미치는 효과를 추정한 결과에 따르면 아세안 역내 모든 국가에서 그 효과가 낮게 나타났다. 또한, 산업별 수출입구성비와 중간재 투입비중의 변화도 거의 영향력이 없는 것으로 나타났다.5장에서는 아세안 역내 국가별로 차이가 존재하는 산업정책 및 경제발전 전략을 살펴보았다. 인도네시아는 경제규모에 비해 역내 비교우위를 가진 산업이 줄어들고 있으므로 보호주의적인 정책 기조를 유지하고 있다. 반면에 말레이시아는 아세안의 산업화를 주도해 온 국가답게 AEC 출범에 대비해 관세․비관세 장벽 철폐, 서비스 개방 등 적극적인 개방노선을 채택했다. 마지막 6장은 이상의 연구결과를 바탕으로 정책적 시사점을 제시하고 있다. English Abstract: Despite the formal launch of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in December 2015, it is debatable whether the Community will work well. Instead, it is more appropriate to view the launch of AEC as an opportunity to align the efforts in integrating the ASEAN and to identify its strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, the impact of the AEC on regional trade and investment is likely to be minimal or even not visible at all in the early stage immediately following the launch. However, the Nay Pyi Taw Declaration on the ASEAN Community's Post-2015 Vision in 2014 is a display of the ASEAN's willingness to advance the AEC in a long-term vision. When standardized institutions and policies are implemented in the member states, the AEC will be able to successfully integrate the ASEAN economy. This study begins with an overview of the progress in ASEAN economic integration and responses from surrounding nations. At its establishment in 1967, the motivation for ASEAN was mainly political, not economic. It was only in the late 1970s when the ASEAN started to express interest in economic integration and cooperation. In the second chapter, we conduct in-depth survey to review the awareness of Korean businesses to the establishment of the AEC and to see if the response to the launch of the AEC is prepared. Survey questionnaires were distributed to both companies based in Korea as well as those based in ASEAN region. The results showed low level of awareness regarding the launch of the AEC. In the third chapter, the study categorizes the progress of the establishment of the AEC into three stages. The first stage begins in 1993 when the member states began to recognize the needs for economic integration. The second stage is when initiatives took place between 2002 and 2007. In the third stage, detailed efforts were made regarding the integration of ASEAN economy. This study reviews the features and transitions. The following chapter 4 experiments the change in regional trade, investment and industrial structure assuming the launch of AEC through dynamic CGE models. According to the findings, GDP change in each ASEAN country was nominal. Little change was observed in net export composition and intermediary material input by each industry. Chapter Five seeks to compare different industrial policy as well as economic development strategy of ASEAN members. Considering the study results, the final chapter provides policy implications for Korea regarding the launch of AEC.
    Keywords: Economic Integration; AEC; ASEAN; Industrial Policy; Trade; ASEAN Countries
    Date: 2015–12–30
  27. By: Choi , Hyelin (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Han , Minsoo (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Whang , Unjung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Su Bin (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 국내 외국인직접투자는 1980년대부터 유입되기 시작하여 1998년 ?외국인투자 촉진법?이 제정되면서 급격히 증가하였다. 2000년대 초반에는 9ㆍ11테러, IT 거품 붕괴 등으로 인한 세계 경기 침체, M&A 물량 축소 등으로 감소세로 전환되었다가 다시 2004년부터 회복세를 보이기 시작했다. 이후 매년 100억 달러 이상의 안정적인 외국인직접투자를 달성하였고, 정부의 적극적인 외국인투자 유치 정책에 힘입어 2014년에는 약 190억 달러의 사상 최고치를 기록하였다. 그동안 선진국 및 개발도상국은 ‘외국인직접투자가 고용창출, 선진기술 및 경영방식 도입 등의 긍정적인 효과를 가져온다’는 믿음하에 규제완화 및 제도개선, 세금혜택, 현금지원 등의 다양한 정책을 통해 외국인투자 유치 전략을 추진하였다. 우리나라도 외환위기를 기점으로 종전의 소극적인 투자 유치전략에서 적극적인 개방 및 지원 중심의 정책으로 전환하여 투자 유치 확대에 많은 노력을 기울여왔으며, 그 결과 외국인직접투자가 국내 수출의 20%, 고용의 6%를 차지하기에 이르렀다. 이에 따라 외국인직접투자는 국내 기업 및 고용 전반에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인으로 대두되었다. 하지만 최근 외국인직접투자의 기업 및 노동시장에 미치는 차별적 영향에 대한 우려가 나타나기 시작하면서, 외국인직접투자와 경제 양극화 간의 관계에 대한 의문이 제기되었다. 주로 국내기업보다 생산성이 높고 선진기술을 보유한 외국인투자기업(이하 ‘외투기업’)의 유입은 경쟁을 심화시키고 국내시장을 잠식할 수 있는데, 특히 경쟁력이 약한 국내 중소기업에 상대적으로 큰 구축효과를 일으켜 대기업과 중소기업의 차이를 더욱 심화시킬 수 있다. 또한 기술집약산업과 서비스산업에 집중된 외투기업의 진입은 숙련 노동자에 대한 수요를 증가시키고, 따라서 숙련 노동자와 비숙련 노동자의 임금격차를 확대시킴으로써 임금의 양극화를 초래할 수 있다. 이러한 배경하에서 본 보고서는 현 한국경제의 중요한 두 이슈인 외국인직접투자 확대와 경제 양극화 현상의 관계에 대한 면밀한 분석이 필요하다는 문제의식하에 산업통상자원부에서 제공하는 ?외국인투자 통계?와 통계청의 ?기업활동조사?, 고용노동부의 ?고용형태별 근로실태조사?의 미시데이터를 활용하여 외국인직접투자가 중소기업의 퇴출 및 성장에 미치는 영향과 숙련노동자의 임금 프리미엄에 미치는 영향을 실증분석하였다. 우선 외국인직접투자가 국내기업의 퇴출에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과에 따르면, 외투기업의 유입은 국내기업의 퇴출을 증가시키는데, 특히 중소기업일수록 더 큰 퇴출 압력을 받는 것으로 확인되었다. 그리고 제조업 종사 그룹과 서비스업 종사 그룹, 고수출 그룹과 저수출 그룹을 비교한 세부 분석에서는 제조업 종사 그룹과 저수출 그룹에서 구축효과가 더 크게 나타났다. 또한 각 그룹에서 규모가 작은 기업일수록 상대적으로 더 큰 퇴출 압력을 받는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 하지만 경쟁에서 생존한 기업들만을 대상으로 매출액 증감을 분석한 결과에 따르면, 외투기업의 유입은 국내기업의 매출액에 유의한 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 관찰되었다. 하지만 제조업 종사 그룹과 서비스업 종사 그룹, 고수출 그룹과 저수출 그룹을 비교한 세부 분석에서는 제조업 종사 그룹과 고수출 그룹이 더 큰 폭의 매출액 증가를 보이고, 각 그룹별 중소기업일수록 더 큰 매출액 증가를 경험하는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 결과를 종합하면 외투기업의 국내 진출이 반드시 대기업과 중소기업의 양극화를 심화시킨다고 단정하기 어렵다. 외국인직접투자는 중소기업을 중심으로 구축효과를 일으켜 기업의 양극화를 심화시키는 것처럼 보이지만, 일부 그룹에서는 경쟁에서 살아남은 중소기업의 경우 오히려 더 큰 매출액 증가를 경험하는 것으로 나타나 양극화를 완화시킬 수도 있기 때문이다. 이를 경제 전체적인 관점에서 해석하면 외투기업의 국내 진출은 생산성이 낮고 경쟁력이 약한 기업을 시장에서 퇴출시킴으로써 산업 전반의 경쟁력을 향상 시키는 효과가 있다고 볼 수 있으며, 또한 경쟁에서 살아남은 기업들에는 연쇄 및 선진기술전파 효과를 일으켜 경제 전체의 경쟁력을 증대시키는 효과도 있다. 외국인직접투자가 숙련 노동자와 비숙련 노동자의 임금 프리미엄에 미치는 영향을 실증분석하기에 앞서, 이론적으로는 외투기업의 특성, 즉 상대적으로 숙련 노동 집약적인 경우와 비숙련 노동 집약적인 경우에 따라 상반되는 결과를 초래함을 알 수 있었다. 전자의 경우 외국인직접투자의 증가는 숙련노동자에 대한 수요를 증가시켜 숙련 노동자에 대한 임금 프리미엄을 증가시키는 반면, 후자의 경우에는 비숙련 노동자에 대한 수요를 증가시키고 오히려 숙련 노동자에 대한 임금 프리미엄을 감소시킴을 확인할 수 있었다. 이를 실제 데이터를 이용해 분석한 결과, 종합적으로는 뚜렷한 관계가 나타나지 않지만 전기ㆍ전자, 음식ㆍ숙박, 금융ㆍ보험, 기계ㆍ장비, 비즈니스 서비스업, 도소매유통, 기타 제조, 화공산업 분야에서는 외국인직접투자가 숙련 노동자에 대한 임금 프리미엄을 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 이론과 연결시켜보면 위 산업의 외투기업은 상대적으로 숙련 노동 집약적이며, 따라서 외투기업의 진입은 숙련 노동자에 대한 수요와 임금 프리미엄의 증가로 이어진다고 해석할 수 있다. 또한 위 산업분야에 이미 외국인직접투자가 많이 들어와 있는 상황임을 고려할 때, 이외의 산업에서는 아직 충분한 외국인직접투자가 이루어지지 않아 숙련 노동자의 임금 프리미엄 증가가 관찰되지 않은 것일 뿐 외국인직접투자의 증가에 따라 숙련 노동자에 대한 임금 프리미엄이 증가할 가능성을 완전히 배제할 수 없다. 이상의 결과를 종합하여 국내에 진출한 외투기업의 긍정적인 효과를 극대화할 수 있는 방안을 다음과 같이 제시할 수 있다. 일부 그룹에서 외국인직접투자가 경쟁에서 생존한 중소기업들의 매출액을 높이는 것으로 분석됨에 따라 외투기업의 선진기술 및 경영방식이 국내 중소기업으로 전파될 수 있는 메커니즘이 활발하게 작동하도록 해야 할 것이다. 예를 들어 외투기업과 국내 중소기업을 직접 중개하거나 중개대행하는 기구를 만들어 사업기회를 교류하고 투자정보를 공유할 수 있는 장을 마련해야 할 것이다. 또한 외투기업이 국내기업으로부터 중간재를 조달하는 경우에는 세금혜택, 규제완화 등의 정책적 유인을 제공하여 두 기업간의 연계 강화를 위해 노력해야 할 것이다. 이외에도 기존 제조업의 중간재 공급에만 한정되어 있는 관계를 연구개발, 법률자문, 회계, 금융, 보험, 컨설팅 등의 전문 서비스 영역으로 확대함으로써 연쇄 및 선진기술ㆍ경영방식 전파 효과를 더욱 극대화할 수 있을 것이다. 뿐만 아니라 국내기업들은 외투기업의 필요를 잘 인지하고 그에 맞는 질높은 중간재를 경쟁력 있는 가격에 제공할 수 있도록 기술경쟁력을 키워야할 것이며, 정부는 중소기업의 원천적 한계를 극복하기 위해 사업기회를 수시로 제공하고 시장에 대한 정보제공 및 자금조달 애로 해소를 위한 강구책을 마련해야 할 것이다. 또한 외국인직접투자가 이미 상당히 유입된 산업에서 숙련 노동자의 높은 임금 프리미엄이 관찰됨에 따라, 노동력의 재배치 또는 적절한 직업 재교육을 통해 노동시장의 수급 균형을 이루어야 할 것이다. 예를 들어 적절한 언어 및 기술적 훈련을 통해 최근 정부가 투자 유치 노력을 기울이고 있는 첨단 지식서비스분야의 글로벌 기업에 바로 고용될 수 있는 노동력을 준비하는 것이 한 방법일 수 있다. 또한 외투기업과 노동자를 직접 연결해주는 프로그램을 통해 매칭비용을 절감하고 효과적인 매칭이 이루어질 수 있도록 하는 것도 하나의 방안이 될 것이다. 그리고 이외에도 상대적 약자인 비숙련 노동자도 함께 성장하는 포용적 성장을 이루기 위해 이들을 위한 정부 차원의 사회보장정책이 마련되어야 할 것이다. English Abstract: The influx of foreign investment to Korea began in the 1980's, and increased dramatically following the establishment of the 'Foreign Investment Promotion Act' in 1998. However, it declined in the early 2000s because of global economic slowdown due to events such as the 9-11 terrorist attack and Information Technology Bubble Decay, etc. Investments have rebounded since 2004 and attracted more than 10 billion dollars thereafter, reaching a peak of 19 billion dollars in 2014. Most governments believe that FDI contributes to economic development by creating jobs and introducing advanced technology and management practices to the host country. Based on this belief, governments provided various incentives such as tax breaks, relaxed regulations, and cash grants to attract multinational companies to their respective countries. This includes the Korean government, which changed its restrictive strategy to actively attract foreign firms since the Asian financial crisis by providing a variety of incentives for foreign firms. As a result, foreign firms now account for about 20 percent of total exports and 6 percent of employment, and have had significant impacts throughout the economy. In recent days, some questions have been raised concerning differential effect of foreign firms on domestic small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and skilled labor, with subsequent discussions on the relationship of FDI and economic polarization. As multinational firms which are known to be more productive and possessed of more advanced technology enter the domestic market, they might bring about intense competition and crowd out domestic firms from the market, in particular SMEs. Also, foreign firms in technology-intensive and services industries might demand more skilled labor, and thus increase wage premium for high-skilled labor. Although both foreign direct investment and economic polarization are very important issues, there are relatively few studies which investigate their relationship. It is this lack of research on FDI and economic polarization that provided motivation for this report, which examines whether foreign firms have differential impacts on the survival and growth of SMEs and increase wage premium for high-skilled labor. This was done by using foreign investment data from Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy; firm-level data from Statistics Korea; and survey on labor conditions by type of employment from Ministry of Employment and Labor. According to the empirical investigation on FDI and exit and sales of domestic firms, foreign firms exert pressures to drive domestic firms from the market, and SMEs in particular. In addition, crowding-out effects are shown to be stronger for SMEs in the manufacturing sector and the low-export group. In contrast, according to the empirical investigation on FDI and change in sales of domestic firms, the presence of foreign firms in the same industry increases sales of domestic firms; the magnitude of the change being larger, in particular, for SMEs. Also, the positive impact are larger for SMEs in the manufacturing sector and high-export group. To summarize the results on FDI and survival/growth of domestic firms, we cannot say that FDI aggravates polarization of firms because while it drives SMEs from the market on one hand, its raises their sales on the other. From the perspective of the whole economy, foreign firms raise productivity of the economy by removing uncompetitive firms from the market and then increasing productivity of the surviving domestic firms. According to the theoretical and empirical investigation on FDI and wage premium for skilled labor, we found that FDI in specific sectors, such as electronics and electricity, food and accommodation, finance and insurance, machine equipment, business service, wholesale and retail distribution, other manufacturing, professional engineering in chemical industries; increases wage premium for high-skilled labor. In other words, foreign firms in these industries are more skill intensive, demand more high-skilled labor, and hence increase wage premium for high-skilled labor. Also, since these industries have common characteristics of having high levels of FDI, the impact of FDI on the increase in the wage premium for high-skilled labor can be interpreted as not being limited to these industries but in general. These results provide useful policy implications which bolster the positive impact of foreign firms. As foreign firms increase sales of domestic survival firms, the mechanism for linkage and technology diffusion effects should be expanded to reinforce growth of domestic firms. For example, there should be places to exchange business information and opportunities, and the government should provide various incentives for foreign firms to develop linkages with domestic firms. Furthermore, the linkage between foreign and domestic firms should be expanded to services such as R&D, accounting, consulting etc. beyond the manufacturing sector. Also, as presence of foreign firms in the same industry increases wage premium for skilled-labor, adequate labor reallocation and job training are needed to balance supply and demand of skilled-labor forces. For example, the government should facilitate efficient matching through programs to connect domestic labor supply and demand of foreign firms. In addition, the government should strengthen the social safety net for low-skilled labor, to aim for inclusive growth.
    Keywords: 외국인직접투자; 산업정책
    Date: 2015–12–30
  28. By: David Hummels; Kwan Yong Lee
    Abstract: We construct a synthetic panel of household expenditures from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) and use the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate expenditure shares and income elasticities of demand that vary by good-income-time. We show that the size and distribution of income shocks drives expenditure change in a manner that varies profoundly across traded goods. Our estimates of expenditure shares and income elasticities could be useful in many applications that seek to explain changes in trade behavior from the demand side, and indicate the strong sensitivity of trade to changes in the tails of the income distribution. We explore an application involving the Great Trade Collapse. Income-induced expenditure changes are positively correlated with the cross-good pattern of import changes, generating a predicted change 40% as large as the raw variation in import declines.
    JEL: D12 D31 F10 F14
    Date: 2017–04
  29. By: Shushanik Hakobyan (Fordham University); John McLaren (University of Virginia)
    Abstract: Using U.S. Census data for 1990–2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on U.S. wages, focusing on differences by gender. We find that NAFTA tariff reductions are associated with substantially reduced wage growth for married blue-collar women, much larger than the effect for other demographic groups. We investigate several possible explanations for this finding. It is not explained by differential sensitivity of female-dominated occupations to trade shocks, or by household bargaining that makes married female workers less able to change their industry of employment than other workers. We find some support for an explanation based on an equilibrium theory of selective non-participation in the labor market, whereby some of the higher-wage married female workers in their industry drop out of the labor market in response to their industry’s loss of tariff. However, this does not fully explain the findings, so we are left with a puzzle.
    Keywords: NAFTA, gender wage gap, local labor markets
    JEL: F16 F13 J31
  30. By: Yamashita, Nobuaki (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We examine the hypothesis that manufacturing industries in Japan that have been exposed to import competition from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) experience greater skill upgrading (increased demand for skilled workers). Using an industry panel dataset over the period 1980–2010, we exploit variations of worker skill categories by occupation, paired with detailed information and communication technology investment data in the employment share regression. We find that while the PRC’s comparative advantages in exports have shifted from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive products, this has not resulted in substituting skilled workers in Japanese manufacturing. Rather, it has had the profound positive effect of raising overall demand for skilled workers. Most of the competition effects were felt among production workers, leaving middle-skilled workers largely unaffected.
    Keywords: import competition; skill upgrading; skilled workers; manufacturing
    JEL: D24 F17 O47 O57 R15
    Date: 2017–01–24
  31. By: Robert Grundke; Stéphanie Jamet; Margarita Kalamova; Mariagrazia Squicciarini
    Abstract: This study investigates the role of countries’ skills endowment for comparative advantage. It tests the theoretical model of Ohnsorge and Trefler (2007) who argue that it is the bundling of various skills at the worker level and their joint distribution that matter for trade specialisation. This departs from the literature assuming that workers are endowed with only one type of skills, generally measured by educational attainment. The model’s predictions are tested using information on cognitive skills from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) and Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data. Results show that workers' skills bundles and their distribution have larger effects on specialisation than countries’ endowment of capital per employee, or the relative endowment of workers possessing different levels of education. Furthermore, this study tests the model of Bombardini et al. (2012) and finds evidence that the within-country dispersion of skills significantly affects specialisation patterns.
    Date: 2017–05–05
  32. By: Hayato Kato (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Toshihiro Okubo (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)
    Abstract: A salient feature of the current globalization is a loss of manufacturing in developed countries and rapid industrialization in middle-sized developing countries. This paper aims to construct a simple three-country trade and geography model with different market sizes and endogenous wage rates. The large country fosters industrial agglomeration (geographical concentration) in the early stage of globalization, but loses manufacturing in the later stage of globalization. When losing manufacturing, the large country might be worse off. Thus, the large country might have an incentive to implement welfare-maintaining policies to prevent a loss of manufacturing. All of these results can be explained by relative market sizes.
    Keywords: Agglomeration, Market size, Middle-sized country, Endogenous wages, Industry/welfare maintaining policy
    JEL: F12 F15 F20
    Date: 2017–01–08
  33. By: Magombeyi, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
    Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic impact of foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) on poverty reduction in Botswana from 1980 to 2014. The study employs the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach to cointegration and the error correction model to investigate the impact of FDI on poverty reduction. Unlike some studies that have relied on one poverty reduction proxy, this study uses three poverty reduction proxies, which are household consumption expenditure (Pov1), infant mortality rate (Pov2), and life expectancy (Pov3). The results from this study vary depending on the poverty reduction proxy used. FDI has a negative impact on poverty reduction in both the long run and the short run when Pov3 is used as a poverty reduction measure, while an insignificant relationship was revealed in both the long run and the short run when Pov2 is used as a proxy for poverty reduction. FDI has a negative statistically significant impact on poverty reduction in the short run and an insignificant impact on poverty reduction in the long run when Pov1 is used as a measure of poverty reduction. Past poverty reduction has a positive impact on current poverty reduction irrespective of the poverty reduction proxy used.
    Keywords: Poverty Reduction; Foreign Direct Investment; Household Consumption Expenditure; Infant Mortality Rate; Life Expectancy
    Date: 2017–02
  34. By: Bae , Chankwon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Young Gui (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Keum , Hye Yoon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 한중일 제조업 총요소생산성을 3국 간 경쟁구도 속에서 비교, 분석함으로써 국내 제조업의 경쟁력을 진단하고, 이를 토대로 향후 세계시장에서 한중일 3국 간 경쟁구조의 변화를 전망하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 제2장에서는 Olley and Pakes(1996) 방식으로 총요소생산성(TFP)을 추정하고 한중일 비교를 통해 1980년대부터 최근에 이르기까지 생산성으로 평가한 3국 간 경쟁력의 격차가 어떻게 변해왔는지 조망한다. 제3장에서는 수출통계를 통해 한중일 간 수출경쟁 현황을 살펴보고, 생산성과 수출 간의 관계에 대해 분석한다. 우리나라가 정유산업 이외에 확실한 우위를 점하고 있는 산업은 없으며 운송기기와 화학 산업은 일본, 전기·전자 산업은 일본, 중국과 경합을 벌이고 있다. 한중일 3국의 상위 20대 수출품목에 대한 분석에서는 2000년대 들어 전기·전자 산업을 중심으로 한중 경합관계가 한일보다 심화되고, 동일 산업내에서도 한중과 한일 간 경합품목이 확연히 구분되는 경향을 보인다. 한일 간 수출경쟁은 운송기기 산업에서 두드러지는데, 2000년대 중반 이후 소형과 중형 승용차 위주의 경쟁에서 다양한 모델의 승용차와 차량용 부분품 등으로 경합품목이 세분화되고 있다. 제4장에서는 먼저, 제2장의 분석 결과를 사용하여 산업별 TFP 프런티어와 이에 대한 한중일의 기술추격속도를 추정한 후 3국의 산업별 TFP의 장기적 추이를 전망한다. 우리나라는 화학과 정유 산업을 제외한 모든 산업에서 10∼15년 이내에 중국에게 추월당할 가능성이 큰 반면, 일본의 생산성 증가속도가 정체 내지 둔화되면서 운송기기와 비철금속 제조업 이외의 산업에서는 일본을 따라잡을 수 있을 것으로 예측된다. 제5장에서는 이상의 모든 분석 결과를 근거로 기술진보를 촉진하는 정책 지원, 생산의 기술적 효율성을 제고할 수 있는 경제구조로의 전환, 한중일 경쟁구도의 세밀한 분석과 예측을 통한 장단기 전략의 차별화, 효율적인 구조조정과 생산성 향상을 위한 R&D 투자의 실효성 확보, 창업 역량 및 지원 강화, 그리고 한중일 3국의 협력을 통한 상호이익의 극대화 모색을 정책적 시사점으로 제시한다. English Abstract: This study evaluates Korea's competitiveness in manufacturing exports, focusing on the rivalry among Korea, China, and Japan. In doing so, it aims to predict changes in competitive dynamics for Korea in the global manufacturing market. The findings from the study are as follows: first, there has been a dramatic catch-up of China with Korea in terms of productivity, especially since 2000, while there still exists a relatively large gap between Japan and Korea. It is reminiscent of the sandwich theory, meaning Korea is literally sandwiched between a fast-growing China and technologically-advanced Japan. Second, since 2000, industry-level productivity has increased mostly with respect to the ratio of value-added in productive firms to total value-added in Korea. Meanwhile, it is actually technological progress that has been the major contributing factor to productivity growth rather than economies of scale. Third, Korea competes with China and Japan, respectively, in different product markets. It implies that rivalry among the three countries even within the same industry may be divided in terms of the products. Fourth, productivity may be interconnected with exports in Korea. In particular, there seems to be a positive link between productivity growth created by technological progress and export performance. Fifth, current trends in productivity growth suggest that Korea will be overtaken by China in most manufacturing sectors except chemical and oil refining within 10∼15 years. For the long-term though, the productivity rankings will be reversed among Korea, China, and Japan; in virtually all industries but transportation equipment.
    Keywords: Manufacturing Industry; Export; Total Factor Productivity; Korea; South; China; Japan
    Date: 2015–12–30
  35. By: van 't Riet, Maarten; Lejour, Arjen (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: The international corporate tax system is considered as a network and, just like for transportation, ‘shortest’ paths are computed, minimizing tax payments for multinational enterprises when repatriating profits. We include corporate income tax rates, withholding taxes on dividends, double tax treaties and the double taxation relief methods. We find that treaty shopping leads to an average potential reduction of the tax burden on repatriated dividends of about 6 percentage points. Moreover, an indicator for centrality in the tax network identifies the United Kingdom, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, amongst others, as the most important conduit countries. Tax havens do not have a crucial role in treaty shopping. In the regression analysis we find that the centrality indicators are robustly significant explanatory variables for bilateral FDI stocks. This also holds for our treaty shopping indicator.
    Keywords: Corporate taxation; tax treaties; treaty shopping; tax havens; shortest path
    JEL: F23 H25 H26 H87
    Date: 2017
  36. By: Schiff, Maurice
    Abstract: Ability drain's (AD) impact seems economically significant, with 30% of US Nobel laureates since 1906 being immigrants, and immigrants or their children founding 40% of Fortune 500 companies. Nonetheless, while brain drain (BD) and gain (BG) have been studied extensively, AD has not. I examine migration's impact on ability (a), education (h), and productive human capital or 'skill' s=s(a,h), for source country residents and migrants under a) the points system (PS) which accounts for h, and b) the 'vetting' system (VS) which accounts for s (e.g., US H-1B program). Findings are: i) Migration reduces (raises) residents' (migrants') average ability, with an ambiguous (positive) impact on average education and skill, and net skill drain, SD, likelier than net BD; ii) these effects increase with ability's inequality or variance, are greater under VS than PS, and hurt source countries; iii) the model and two empirical studies suggest that, for educated US immigrants, average AD ≥ BD, with real income about twice home country income; iv) SD holds for any BD, and also for a very small AD (7.4% of our estimate). Policy implications are provided.
    Keywords: Migration,points system,vetting system,ability drain,brain drain,brain gain
    JEL: F22 J24 J61 O15
    Date: 2017
  37. By: Sascha O. Becker; Thiemo Fetzer; Dennis Novy
    Abstract: On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union. We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immigration and trade provides relatively little explanatory power for the referendum vote. Instead, we find that fundamental characteristics of the voting population were key drivers of the Vote Leave share, in particular their education profiles, their historical dependence on manufacturing employment as well as low income and high unemployment. At the much finer level of wards within cities, we find that areas with deprivation in terms of education, income and employment were more likely to vote Leave. Our results indicate that a higher turnout of younger voters, who were more likely to vote Remain, would not have overturned the referendum result.
    Keywords: political economy, voting, referendum, migration, austerity
    JEL: D72 N44 R23 Z13
    Date: 2017–04
  38. By: Isao Kamata; Hitoshi Sato; Kiyoyasu Tanaka
    Abstract: This study examines the role of management practices in the internationalisation of domestic firms through directly exporting and/or supplying to local affiliates of multinationals. An original survey of manufacturing firms in Viet Nam was conducted, investigating their management practices such as human resource management and internationalisation status. The survey results shed light on similarities and dissimilarities among firms in several dimensions of management practices. Findings reveal that internationalised firms tended to be more enthusiastic about the formal training of production workers, the modernisation of production and operation, and product and process innovation. Differences in skills and experience requirements for newly employed managers were less recognizable, but internationalised firms tended to have managers who studied overseas. Furthermore, the use of public support to employee training, teamwork in production, and unionisation of employees did not show a significant difference between internationalised and non-internationalised firms.
    Keywords: Management practices, Firm heterogeneity, Global value chains
    JEL: F23 F61 M11 M50
    Date: 2017–05
  39. By: Siar, Sheila V.; Llanto, Gilberto M.; Albert, Jose Ramon G.
    Abstract: Using a purposive online and paper-based survey and focus group discussions with select target groups, this study makes inferences about the level of awareness of the Filipino people on ASEAN; their perceived problems confronting the Philippines and ASEAN; and their aspirations, concerns, and hopes for the association. It reveals moderate familiarity about ASEAN, as well as modest identification as ASEAN citizens, which improves with age and experience. There is also a general sentiment that Philippine membership in the association is beneficial for the country, albeit only moderate as well. Media coverage on ASEAN is also perceived to be inadequate. The study validates the most immediate concerns being faced by the Philippines today, notably affordable internet connection, poverty, corruption, agriculture and food security, and energy provision and price. Most pressing regional-level concerns are climate change and natural disasters, territorial/maritime disputes, trade and investment issues, agriculture and food security, and income disparity and social inequality. These reflect the priorities that ASEAN leaders should focus on in the immediate future to remain relevant and responsive to the needs of ASEAN peoples. Aspirations are high for ASEAN to realize its integration agenda and to play an active role in global negotiations and forums and for its member-states to achieve inclusive economic prosperity. How to realize these aspirations rests in part on the ability of its member-states to work harmoniously with one another and contribute actively toward the realization of the ASEAN Community Vision. For its part, ASEAN has to provide a strong leadership role in integrating its member-states, which individually are also confronted by a host of problems. As ASEAN's coordinating body, its Secretariat needs to strengthen its capability so it can provide more effective technical support to the association in meeting its goals and aspirations.
    Keywords: Philippines, food security, regional integration, ASEAN, climate change, agriculture, ASEAN Secretariat, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, internet connection, poverty, corruption, international relations
    Date: 2017

This nep-int issue is ©2017 by Luca Salvatici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.