nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2017‒04‒23
forty papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. The effects of the TPP in the Mexican economy: CGE assessment. By Gabriela Ortiz Valverde; María de la Concepción Latorre Muñoz
  2. 신통상정책에 나타난 EU의 FTA 추진전략과 시사점 (EU's FTA Strategies in Its New Trade Policy Initiatives and Policy Implications) By Kim, Heung Chong; Lee , Cheol-Won; Lee , Hyun Jean; Yang , Hyoeun; Kang , Yoo-Duk
  3. Determinants of India’s Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade over 2001-15: Empirical Results By Aggarwal, Sakshi; Chakraborty, Debashis
  4. Services trade costs: Tariff equivalents of services trade restrictions using gravity estimation By Sebastian Benz
  5. 한국의 수입구조 결정요인과 기업분포에 미치는 영향 (Determinants of Korea's Import and Its Effects on Firm's Distribution) By Kim , Young Gui; Park , Hyeri; Keum , Hye Yoon; Lee , Seungrae
  6. Natural Resources Giant Kazakhstan: What kind of international economic regulation framework is applicable to its SOEs? (Japanese) By Alisher UMIRDINOV
  7. An Assessment of the Potential Economic Impacts of RCEP on Vietnam Automobile Sector By Le, Minh Ngoc; Tu, Thuy Anh
  8. Accounting for the new gains from trade liberalization By Chang-Tai Hsieh; Nicholas Li; Ralph Ossa; Mu-Jeung Yang
  9. Investor State Dispute Settlement and Multinational Firm Behavior By Schjelderup, Guttorm; Stähler, Frank
  10. Trade Patterns and the Ecological Footprint - a theory-based Empirical Approach By Thi Anh Dam; Markus Pasche; Niclas Werlich
  11. Heterogeneous economic integration agreements' effects, gravity, and welfare By Scott L Baier; Jeffrey H Bergstrand; Matthew W Clance
  12. Japan–Korea Trade Liberalization Revisited: The Role of Armington Elasticities By Kim, Jiyoung; Nakano, Satoshi; Nishimura, Kazuhiko
  13. Impact of Transport Costs on Vietnamese Textile Exports By Huong, Trinh Thi Thu
  14. Trade impacts of the European Union - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: The Sussex Framework Analysis By Ha, Le Thu
  15. Gender, Informal Employment and Trade Liberalization in Mexico By Pamela Bombarda; Sarra Ben Yahmed
  16. What drives trade in services? Lessons from the Nordics By Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn
  17. 남북한 CEPA 체결의 중장기 효과 분석 및 추진 방안 연구 (Analysis of the Mid to Long-Term Effect and Promotion Strategy of an Inter-Korean CEPA) By Lim , Sooho; Lee , Hyo-young; Choi , Jangho; Choi , Yoojeong; Choi , Ji Young
  18. The ‘Smile Curve’: where Value is Added along Supply Chains By Armando Rungi; Davide Del Prete
  19. How Exporters Grow By Doireann Fitzgerald; Stefanie Haller; Yaniv Yedid-Levi
  20. Migrants and the Making of America: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Immigration during the Age of Mass Migration By Sandra Sequeira; Nathan Nunn; Nancy Qian
  21. Effects of Trade Wars on Belarus By Aleksandr Vashchilko
  22. Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa By Emiko Fukase; Will Martin
  23. Challenged by Migration: Europe’s Options By Constant, Amelie F.; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  24. Modelling the economic impacts of Korean unification By Warwick J. McKibbin; Jong Wha Lee; Weifeng Liu; Cheol Jong Song
  25. The Impact of Protection on Observed Productivity Distributions By Igor Bagayev; Ronald B. Davies
  26. The expansion of regional supermarket chains: Implications for local suppliers in Zambia By Francis Ziba; Mwanda Phiri
  27. Learning to Import From Neighbors By Hu, Cui; Tan, Yong
  28. Mondialisation Un modèle « anglo-américain » de l'organisation ? By Yvon Pesqueux
  29. Does Safeguards Need Saving? Lessons from the Ukraine - Passenger Cars Dispute By Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan; Simon Lester
  30. 브렉시트의 경제적 영향 분석과 한국의 대응전략 (Economic Impacts of Brexit and Its Policy Implications to Korea) By Kim , Heung Chong; Kim , Young Gui; Han , Minsoo; Kim , Jong Duk; Cho , Moon hee; Lim, You-Jin; Ko , Younglo; Cheon , Changmin; Choi , soon yeong; Hong , Sung Wook; Min , Seong-hwan
  31. The Infant Industry Argument: Tariffs, NTMs and Innovation By Igor Bagayev; Ronald B. Davies
  32. Structural Decisions of Multinationals in Regions with Weak Courts By Eugenia Bessonova; Gonchar Ksenia
  33. 한ㆍ아세안 기업간 지역생산네트워크 구축전략 (Study on Strategies for Building Regional Production Networks in the ASEAN Region) By Kwak , Sungil; Cheong , Jae Wan; Kim , Jegook; Shin , Minlee; La , Meeryung
  34. Foreign Institutional Ownership and Risk Taking By XU Peng
  35. Recent changes in food labelling regulations in Latin America: the cases of Chile and Peru By Barreda, Rocio; Boza, Sofía; Espinoza, Macarena; Guerrero, Monica
  36. America first! Wat is het banenverlies voor België en Europa By Hylke Vandenbussche; William Connell Garcia; Wouter Simons; Elena Zaurino
  37. Pattern of Comparative Advantage in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) By Roesmara Donna, Duddy; Widodo, Tri; Adiningsih, Sri
  38. An empirical study of firms’ absorptive capacity and export diversification By Wallin, Tina
  39. Concepts of Equilibrium and their Role in Economic Simulation Models By Sherman Robinson
  40. Brexit, the EU and its investment banker: rethinking ‘equivalence’ for the EU capital market By Niamh Moloney

  1. By: Gabriela Ortiz Valverde; María de la Concepción Latorre Muñoz
    Abstract: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is an ambitious multilateral agreement. Only a few studies have comprehensively evaluated the effects of TPP in different regions or have compared it with other Free Trade Agreements (TTIP, RCEP) using a CGE methodology. The TPP was signed in October 2015. That is why previous studies were done in a framework of uncertainty about the final outcome of the negotiations. The goal of this paper is to offer an updated analysis based on the TPP that has been signed. We focus in Mexico because it plays an important role to consolidate the bridge, between North American region and the Pacific Alliance. By contrast, previous studies have mainly focused on Asian countries. In addition, given the relative increase of services in the trade, we will pay particular attention to the impact of lowering those specific barriers. We want to analyze the effects of reduction in non-tariffs barriers and evaluate its effects at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates the complex analysis of reductions in NTBs. The estimates from NTBs are taken from the existing estimations of gravity-models, which provide Ad valorem tariff equivalents of the NTBs. We estimate an increase on production and trade flow across sectors, as well as in GDP, welfare and aggregate exports and imports. Because the TPP was signed in October 2015. This could be the right time to put into perspective the results of previous studies with ours.
    Keywords: México, General equilibrium modeling, Trade issues
    Date: 2016–07–04
  2. By: Kim, Heung Chong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Cheol-Won (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Hyun Jean (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Yang , Hyoeun (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kang , Yoo-Duk (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 2015년 10월 EU는 신통투자전략을 발표하여 2006년 이래 지속되어온 통상정책의 새로운 기조를 이어나갔다. EU 차원에서 보다 강력하고 광범위한 통상투자정책의 수단을 구사하여 해외시장 접근성을 강화하고, EU의 이해가 걸려 있는 비관세, 서비스, 지재권, 지속가능발전 이슈 등을 상대국에 관철시켜나가고자 한다. EU의 이러한 움직임은 EU 규범의 글로벌화를 촉진하고, 신통상정책의 주요 수단인 FTA를 통해서 역내 고용과 성장에 큰 도움을 주고자 하는 분명한 목표를 갖고 있다. 이 연구는 EU 신통상정책을 심도있게 분석하여 EU의 이러한 의도가 어떻게 구현되고 있는지를 살펴보고 있다. 아울러 EU의 신통상정책이 한국의 통상정책의 방향과 내용에 주는 시사점을 찾고자 하였다. English Abstract: Since the Global Europe Initiative in 2006, the EU has conducted active trade policy measures to contribute to economic growth, job creation and social cohesion in the community. One of the conspicuous features of the new trade policy is that the EU does its best to support EU companies to benefit from better market access through new trade policy tools. Comprehensive and high-leveled bilateral FTA initiatives, among others, have rapidly emerged as a major tool of the new trade policy to achieve the goals. The aim of the research is to illuminate how the goals of the new trade policy have been achieved through EU's FTA strategies. To do this, this research focuses on the three topics of EU standards, evaluation process of market openness and the global value chain (GVC), that is, how much EU's FTA strategies have contributed to achieving globalization of EU standards, job creation through careful evaluation processes and economic growth of the community by utilizing GVCs. First, the EU has made tremendous efforts to export its standards to other countries through various FTAs. Within its Community, the EU has tried to introduce unified technical and sanitary standards, but after little progress was observed, revised its standardization strategy to adopt a narrower harmonization area, leaving more flexibility in the area of general conformity. Since 1989, the EU has conducted international standardization of its community standards, and the process has been accelerated through bilateral FTAs after the new trade policy was initiated in the mid-2000s. The Korea-EU FTA was one of the best examples of EU's efforts in standard internationalization, which was also adopted in the EU-Canada CETA and the EU-Vietnam FTA. In the mega-FTAs, EU's efforts to export its standards do not seem to be so successful, not only because the EU faced big confrontation against the U.S. throughout the TTIP negotiations, but because uncertainties have grown after Brexit and a variety of standards have sprung up in the world recently. Second, it is utmost important that the FTA evaluation process should be carefully designed and conducted properly, in order to assess any impact of FTAs on community labor markets. EU has set out four stages for this evaluation process: impact assessment (IA), sustainability impact assessment (SIA), economic assessment of the negotiated outcome, and ex post evaluation. These assessments not only encompass aspects of quantitative economic analysis, but also qualitative economic analysis and social impacts such as broad impacts on the labor market, SMEs, competitiveness, income distribution, environment, human rights, etc. The trade sustainability impact assessment (SIA), among others, is particularly interesting with regards to the impacts of FTAs on employment. In the EU-Korea FTA SIA report, it is revealed that the Korea-EU FTA would bring about positive impacts on agriculture and services employment, but minor negative impacts on the manufacturing labor market. The dairy industry, with the exception of pork, would win in the case of a EU-Canada CETA, and manufacturing including automobiles would gain in employment in the case of an EU-Vietnam FTA. The TTIP may lead positive impacts on employment through a mutual investment boom, the TTIP SIA argues. Third, the FTAs pursued by the EU make full use of expansion of GVCs. The EU has set out global standards, prevailed competition in the services market, moved to high value-added stages in GVCs, strengthened market access not only in final goods but in the intermediate goods market. In addition, EU has increased forward linkage participation, provided better protection for IPRs, facilitated e-commerce, financial services supply and mode 4. Based upon the EU's FTA strategies revealed in its new trade policy, the following policy implications would follow: First, as for standard internationalization, we need to scrutinize various regulations and standards into several categories, and deal with them to the purposes. In case the standards would be helpful to globalize Korean standards, then we need to introduce them, which would help Korea lead the standard competition in East Asia. In newly emerging areas including IT, environment, and new technologies related to the fourth industrial revolution, it would be strongly recommended to lead platform competition. In this regard, we need to examine Chinese standards as they have rapidly emerged as a new competitor in the area of international standards. Second, Korea has its own assessment system in FTAs, but we need to cover a wider range of assessment fields such as social impacts and qualitative and institutional areas. A four-stage assessment system would be much more recommendable to conduct careful assessment of market opening. A stricter assessment process would be much helpful in maintaining public support to further FTA initiatives. Third, in order to make full use of GVCs, it is much desirable to upgrade value chains, and strengthen market access in East Asia in all stages of process. We need to focus more on the issues how to lift NTBs, widen services market opening, and persuade our trade partners to conduct enactment and enforcement of IPR protection. A single market for e-commerce and services must be established in East Asia. In order to harmonize different rules of origin among FTAs in East Asia, special dialogue channels must be created in RCEP or Trilateral FTA. More importantly, cooperative bodies for the East Asia Regulatory Dialogue can be utilized.
    Date: 2016–12–30
  3. By: Aggarwal, Sakshi; Chakraborty, Debashis
    Abstract: Over the last decade India’s integration in international production networks (IPNs) has deepened, with growing simultaneous export and import within product categories. This has been facilitated by India’s entry into several regional trade agreements (RTAs) and multilateral tariff and non-tariff barriers reforms. The present paper examines the patterns and determinants of aggregate bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) between India and 25 major trading partners during 2001-2015 in a panel data framework. India’s bilateral IIT indices display an upward trend over the sample period. The empirical results indicate that Vertical Intra-industry Trade (VIIT) dominates Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade (HIIT) for the selected countries in the Indian context. The analysis further concludes that trade facilitation among the trading partners may significantly enhance bilateral IIT level with respect to India’s high-income partners, while the same effect is non-significant for low-income countries. Interestingly, the preferential trade dummy is found to be non-significant, implying limited influence of the RTA partnerships on India’s aggregate bilateral IIT. The empirical results underline the need for fast-tracking the trade facilitation related reforms.
    Keywords: Trade Policy, Intra-Industry Trade, Trade Facilitation, LPI, Empirical Estimation
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2017–03–25
  4. By: Sebastian Benz (OECD)
    Abstract: Estimates for ad valorem tariff equivalents of services trade restrictions for cross-border trade in six services sectors are presented in this paper. These equivalents are found to be very big in several service sectors with estimates ranging as high as 2000% when trade flows are relatively inelastic, as opposed to between 20% and 300% in most other sectors. The results indicate that trade costs may even increase less than proportionally as the degree of services trade restrictiveness rises. In addition, the paper shows that services trade liberalisation has the largest effect on trade flows in smaller markets. The estimates presented in this Paper are based on a gravity framework using data on both bilateral trade flows and on the value of domestic production. Production values are used to construct measures for the domestic consumption of domestic services in each country, which enables country-specific trade restrictions to be identified, while controlling for multilateral resistance using fixed effects.
    Keywords: services trade restrictions, trade costs, Trade in services, trade liberalisation
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F68
    Date: 2017–04–21
  5. By: Kim , Young Gui (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Park , Hyeri (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Keum , Hye Yoon (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Seungrae (Kyungpook National University)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 한국의 수입구조에 대한 이해를 높이기 위하여 수입구조를 수출 및 해외투자와의 상호작용 속에서 파악하고, 수입이 기업의 퇴출과 구성요소별 생산성을 통해 기업의 분포구조에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 토대로 수출 및 투자와 연동된 새로운 수입통계 시스템 도입, 무역조정 지원제도의 개선, 유형별 수입을 고려한 맞춤형 대책수립을 제안하였다. English Abstract: Recently, our trades have been declining for the second year in a row, due to the maturity of the global value chain and the delay in the recovery of the world economy. In particular, imports decline more than exports, but trade surplus is rather expanding. Policy makers and experts expressed concern about the decline in exports, but did not show interest in decreased imports. Behind these responses, there is dichotomy that the increase in exports is positive but the increase in imports is negative. More importantly, there is still a lack of clear understanding of Korea's import structure. In this paper, we analyze determinants of Korea's imports in the context of the interaction between exports and foreign investments, and investigate the effects of imports on firms' exit and productivity in order to understand Korea's import structure and distributional influences of imports. Since 1988, Korea's overall imports have increased substantially, except for the currency crisis and the period of the global financial crisis, but it has recorded a continuous declining trend due to recent sharp drop in imports of raw materials. Major importing countries have changed from developed countries in the past to resource-abundant countries and developing countries. By type, intermediate goods account for about 50% of imports, raw materials and capital goods account for 20% respectively, and consumption goods account for around 10%. In order to analyze determinants of imports by type, we constructed theoretical model and found two propositions. First, regardless of types, imports will increase as the economic sizes of importing countries become larger, and will decrease as the transaction cost with the importing partner increases. Second, while imports of consumption goods increase as the income level and market size of importing countries increases, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials used as production inputs increases as the outputs and exports of industries increase. The results of the empirical analysis based on the theoretical model are summarized as follows. First, as the export becomes more active, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials used as production input factors will increase, while imports of consumer goods will decrease. Second, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials are positively related with inward foreign direct investment (FDI), but imports of consumption goods are negatively affected by inward FDI. Third, the more industries spend R&D investments, the more the industries import intermediate goods and raw materials. Fourth, the effects of import liberalization are different for each type of import. The influence of the tariff rate was limited for raw materials and capital goods imports. According to the analysis of Korea's import structure, imports of consumption goods declined by 0.137%, and imports of intermediate materials and raw materials were analyzed to increase by 0.235% and 0.193%, respectively when exports increased by 1%. When inward FDI increased by 1%, imports of consumption goods and capital goods decreased by 0.02% and 0.017% respectively, but imports of raw materials were expected to increase by 0.071%. The main results of analyzing the effects of imports on probability of firms' exit are as follows. First, the increase in total imports increase the probability of a firm's exit but the firm size, capital stocks, productivity decrease the probability. Second, imports of raw materials and intermediate goods decrease the probability. Third, whether firms are exporting or not does not significantly affect the relationship between import penetration and firms' exit. Fourth, the magnitude of the effects of imports on firms' exit varied from industry to industry. The results of effects of imports on productivity structure are summarized as follows. First, the total import penetration rates have an inverse U-shaped relationship with total factor productivity. Second, these nonlinear relationships between import penetration rate and total factor productivity are very different for each type of imports by industry. In order to investigate the effects of imports on the distribution of productivity within the industry, we decompose changes in the productivity into within firm effects, between firm effects, and exit and entry effects. Second, when imports increase, within firms effects are significant in food, iron, transportation industries and between firms effects are significant in oil and iron industries. Only in the transportation industry, exit and entry effects turn out significant. Third, the total import penetration rates have a positive impact on the growth rate of productivity by economies of scale, whereas the penetration rates of intermediate goods imports increase productivity through technological progress. Based on this, three policy proposals were derived. The first is the introduction of a new statistical system for imports linked with export and investment. Also, the new system should contain statistics for e-commerce imports in order to analyze the current situation of import of consumption goods. The second is improvement of the trade adjustment assistant (TAA) program. An increase in imports will increase the competitiveness of the domestic market and induce the exit of companies with low productivity, but these impacts were analyzed to be somewhat different depending on type and industry. In addition, a nonlinear relationship between imports and productivity was also considered. Third one is customized policies taking into account effects of imports by type. As the FTA tariff elimination schedule goes forward, the effects of imports are expected to continue to expand. To introduce customized policy for imports by type, it is necessary to raise the understanding of Korea's import structure.
    Date: 2016–12–30
  6. By: Alisher UMIRDINOV
    Abstract: This paper investigates the applicable international economic regulation framework for the state owned enterprises (SOEs) of Kazakhstan, one of the powerhouse in the Central Asian region in respect to natural resources, territory, and scale of economy. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, notwithstanding to the fact that Kazakhstan chose the path of radical transition to a market economy and organized several rounds of a large scale privatization program, the presence of SOEs in the economy is still high, and more than half of its gross domestic product (GDP) reportedly is produced by SOEs. Moreover, the sovereign wealth fund keeps important assets under its management, and competition law does not function well on state subsidy issues. In 2015, on the other hand, the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union entered into force, and Kazakhstan joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) and concluded a new Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the European Union (EU). The importance of such international economic treaties lies in that Kazakhstan made several significant accession commitments, including price regulation during the WTO accession and agreed to inclusion of a far-fetching SOE chapter in the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with EU. Although, with respect to Kazakhstani SOEs, these treaties have not yet generated enough practice, but it can be concluded that the above treaties highly disciplined the Kazakhstani SOEs, and that their enforcement and dispute settlement situation needs to be followed carefully.
    Date: 2017–04
  7. By: Le, Minh Ngoc; Tu, Thuy Anh
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 5/2017 by Thuy Anh Tu and Minh Ngoc Le
    Abstract: This research aims at examining impacts of ASEAN+6 trade agreements on the automobile industry in Vietnam. Vietnam's automobile industry competes with Thailand, Indonesia and the ASEAN countries as well as China, Korea, Japan and those covered by the ASEAN agreement. By 2018, the automobile import tariff from China, Korea and Japan will be reduced to 5%. In the context of multiple trade agreements, the study of the automobile industry has recently become an interesting topic, especially for policy debate.
    Date: 2017–03–15
  8. By: Chang-Tai Hsieh; Nicholas Li; Ralph Ossa; Mu-Jeung Yang
    Abstract: We measure the "new" gains from trade reaped by Canada as a result of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). We think of the "new" gains from trade of a country as all welfare effects pertaining to changes in the set of firms serving that country as emphasized in the so-called "new" trade literature. To this end, we first develop an exact decomposition of the gains from trade which separates "traditional" and "new" gains. We then apply this decomposition using Canadian and US micro data and and that the "new" welfare effects of CUSFTA on Canada were negative.
    Keywords: Gains from trade, trade liberalization, CUSFTA
    JEL: F10 F12 F14
    Date: 2017–03
  9. By: Schjelderup, Guttorm (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Stähler, Frank (School of Business and Economics, University of Tübingen)
    Abstract: Investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS) were supposed to become an integral part of multilateral trade and investment agreements although the partner countries of these deals do not suffer from substantial institutional weakness. This paper shows why multinational firms lobby for ISDS also in this environment beyond the potential compensation an ISDS provision may offer. ISDS makes them more aggressive by increasing cost-reducing investment. Therefore, potential compensations to a foreign investor do not imply a zero-sum game, and competition with a domestic firm does not necessarily help but may imply even more excessive investment.
    Keywords: Investor-State Dispute Settlement; Mulitnational Enterprises; Foreign Direct Investment; TTIP; TPP
    JEL: F21 F23 F53 F55
    Date: 2017–03–30
  10. By: Thi Anh Dam (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena); Markus Pasche (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena); Niclas Werlich (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)
    Abstract: With global specialization and trade, countries make directly but also indirectly use of the environment via traded goods. Based on the theory of comparative advantages, the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek approach, we are using the Ecological Footprint as a broad measure of environmental use because its methodology explicitly accounts for the environmental use embodied in the traded goods. The comparative advantages depend on the endowment of environment as well as on the stringency of environmental policy which regulate the access to these factors. We empirically analyse the determinants of the ecological side of the trade pattern, i.e. whether the net export of the Ecological Footprint, embodied in the traded goods, depends on the comparative advantages as predicted by the theory, but also on a couple of control variables. A special focus is put on the role of environmental policy stringency which links our analysis to the "Pollution Haven" hypothesis. We also briefly analyse the role of FDI flows for the emergence of the ecological specialization pattern of production and trade.
    Keywords: Trade, comparative advantage, Ecological Footprint, environmental policy, Pollution Haven, FDI
    JEL: F18 F14 F11 Q57 Q56
    Date: 2017–04–18
  11. By: Scott L Baier; Jeffrey H Bergstrand; Matthew W Clance
    Abstract: It is now widely accepted that economic integration agreements (EIAs) and other trade-policy liberalizations contribute to nations' economic growth and development and help alleviate poverty. However, the economic effects of such policies vary across countries' economic structures; importing developing countries face higher market-entry costs (partly due to poorer international networks). In this paper, we address how the trade and welfare effects of EIAs are sensitive to the levels of country-pairs' variable and fixed trade costs. It is now well established that the (variable-cost) 'trade elasticity' typically estimated using gravity equations of international trade flows is central to computing general equilibrium impacts on trade and economic welfare of trade-policy liberalizations using the new quantitative trade models. However, this trade elasticity is generally assumed to be an exogenous parameter, such as the elasticity of substitution in consumption or an index of heterogeneous productivities; moreover, most studies have ignored the role of the fixed-export-cost trade elasticity for trade-policy liberalizations (when not ignored, assumed parametric). This paper offers three potential contributions. First, we extend a standard Melitz general equilibrium trade model with firm heterogeneity to show how variable-cost and fixed -cost trade elasticities associated with trade liberalizations are heterogeneous and endogenous to levels of country-pairs' bilateral policy and non-policy, variable and fixed trade costs even allowing for CES preferences and an untruncated Pareto distribution of productivities. Using associated comparative statics, we provide explicit predictions of the heterogeneous (variable- and fixed-cost) bilateral extensive-margin, intensive-margin, and trade elasticities. Second, a modification of the state-of-the-art panel-data methodology to estimate consistent average treatment effects of economic integration agreements (that liberalize variable and fixed trade-policy costs) provides empirical support for the theoretical hypotheses. Consistent with a growing empirical literature, trade elasticities vary across particular settings; such variation is especially pronounced for North-South EIAs. Third, we demonstrate the relevance of these theoretical and empirical results for welfare calculations using the new quantitative trade models. We show empirically that 83-94 percent of the welfare (or probability) estimates of economic integration agreement liberalizations between 2,266 North-North, North-South, and South-South country-pairs can be explained by our heterogeneous economic integration agreement partial treatment effects.
    Keywords: International trade, economic integration agreements, gravity equation, welfare JEL Codes: F1; F13; F63; O10; O24.
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Kim, Jiyoung; Nakano, Satoshi; Nishimura, Kazuhiko
    Abstract: The elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic products, i.e., Armington elasticity, is measured by way of two-state calibration according to the temporally distant observations of the market shares, and associated price changes. Along with the sector-wise multifactor CES elasticity estimated using the linked input-output tables, we integrate domestic production of the two countries (Japan and the Republic of Korea) with bilateral trades and construct a bilateral general equilibrium model. Thereupon, we perform an economic assessment of trade liberalization between the two countries.
    Keywords: International trade, Input-output tables, Tariff, South Korea, Japan, Linked Input-Output Tables, Two-state Calibration, Tariff Elimination
    JEL: D57 D58 F24
    Date: 2017–04
  13. By: Huong, Trinh Thi Thu
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 2/2017 by Trinh Thi Thu Huong
    Abstract: Transport cost is a critical component that structure price of goods at destination points in international trade. This research explored and analysed transport cost and its impact on export by investigating the relationship between transport cost and export of textile (a specific sector) in Vietnam (a developing country) from 2012 to 2014.
    Date: 2017–03–07
  14. By: Ha, Le Thu
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 3/2017 by Le Thu Ha
    Abstract: In February 2016, after more than three years of negotiation, the European Union and Vietnam officially announced the conclusion of negotiation and published the text of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). This research focuses on the impacts of EVFTA on both economies. By using the Sussex Framework, the EVFTA is expected to have positive impacts on both economies, also exposing many opportunities and challenges to Vietnam as a developing country when trading with an economy giant of the EU. Based on the results of both quantitative and qualitative analysis, the research proposed some recommendations for Vietnamese government and enterprises to enhance the benefits of the FTA.
    Date: 2017–03–10
  15. By: Pamela Bombarda; Sarra Ben Yahmed (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)
    Abstract: We study how trade liberalization a ects labour reallocation in formal and informal jobs across gender. We link the Mexican labour force survey with data on tariffs at the 4-digit level from 1993 to 2001, and find that a tariff reduction increases the probability of holding a formal job for both men and women within industries. Constructing a regional tarif measure, we show that local effects of changes in trade policy differ between gender and industries. At the regional level, trade liberalization decreases the probability of working formally for women, but increases the probability of working formally for high- skilled men. Then, controlling for sectoral differences, we find that in the manufacturing sector, men benefit more from the formalization of jobs induced by trade liberalization. While in the service sector, workers, especially low- skilled women, have higher chances to work informally.
    Keywords: Informality, trade liberalization, gender, Mexico.
    JEL: F13 F16 J16 J21
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Kyvik Nordås, Hildegunn (Örebro University School of Business)
    Abstract: The contribution of this paper to the literature is to make an empirical assessment of the relative importance of non-actionable institutional and cultural factors and actionable policy measures for services market integration, using the Nordic countries as a case study. It finds that intra-Nordic trade in services is about 2.5 times larger than predicted from the gravity model. This may not be surprising since the Nordics are perceived as a cluster of similar countries, but a detailed analysis of the Nordics’ policy framework, trade agreements, institutional and cultural factors concludes that these cannot explain the intra-Nordic bias. An unexplained “Nordicness” factor of this magnitude indicates that integration of services markets may rely on deeper institutional and cultural factors that do not readily lend themselves to trade negotiations. Conversely, trade agreements may yield the largest benefits among countries that share common cultural and institutional features.
    Keywords: Services trade; trade barriers; regulation
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2017–04–11
  17. By: Lim , Sooho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lee , Hyo-young (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Choi , Jangho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Choi , Yoojeong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Choi , Ji Young (Bank of Korea)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 남북경협의 확대 및 남북한 경제통합을 대비하여 남북한 FTA의 필요성과 가능성을 검토하고 추진방안을 제시하였다. 현재 남북경합의 거래관행은 GATT/WTO 체제의 규정, 특히 최혜국 대우 의무와 WTO보조금협정 규정 위반 소지가 있다. 본 연구는 이 문제에 대처하기 위한 가장 현실성 있는 방안이 남북한 CEPA 체결임을 확인하였다. 남북한 CEPA는 정부간 협정보다는 기관간 약정 형태로 체결하는 것이 바람직하며, 남북한 관계의 '역동성'을 감안할 때 중국-대만 방식보다는 중국-홍콩 방식으로 체결하는 것이 타당할 것으로 보인다. 또한 남북한 CEPA의 추진은 단기적 경제효과보다는 장기적 통합효과에 초점을 두어야 하며, CEPA 체결 이후 일정기간 동안 경제적 약자가 체감할 수 있을 정도의 긍정적 효과가 보장되어야 할 것이다. English Abstract: This study examines the necessity and possibility of an inter-Korean FTA to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation and prepare for economic integration between the two Koreas. First, in Chapter 1, we conceptualize an FTA between South and North Korea as a Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA), an FTA between two independent tariff zones in one country, reflecting the special relationship between the two Koreas. This CEPA between South and North Korea would aim at gradually liberalizing trade in goods and services, and facilitating trade and investment. Considering the current system and economic realities of North Korea, it will be necessary to approach the FTA by starting with a low or provisional FTA and gradually increasing this level according to North Korea's regime change and economic development. Therefore, a CEPA between the two Koreas represents an initial stage of economic integration between the two. In Chapter 2 we analyze the cases of the China-Hong Kong CEPA and China-Taiwan ECFA in terms of their respective backgrounds, process, legal status, major contents, and economic effects realized by the FTA. The China-Hong Kong and China-Taiwan FTAs are similar in that both specified the direction of opening and cooperating in each sector during the first round of negotiations, and then further defined the necessary regulations through follow-up negotiations. However, while the China-Hong Kong CEPA systematically opened the market through supplementary agreements once a year, the China-Taiwan ECFA has not led to specific negotiations for goods and services trade besides the EHP (Early Harvest Program). As a result, the performance of the two FTAs shows a marked difference. These differences are mainly attributed to differences in China's political relations with Hong Kong and Taiwan.
    Date: 2016–12–30
  18. By: Armando Rungi (IMT Lucca); Davide Del Prete (IMT Lucca)
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze where value is added along supply chains on a sample of more than 2 million of firms in the European Union. We detect a non-linear U-shaped relationship between the value added generated by firms and their position on a productive sequence, for which tasks at the top and at the bottom show higher value added. Our findings are in line with previous hypotheses on the existence of a so-called 'smile curve', resumed by both business and economic studies and discussed at length in international fora. Our results are robust to different empirical strategies for flexible functional forms. As far as we know, ours is the first firm-level successful attempt to test for value generation along supply chains. Further, we find empirical support for a phenomenon of domestic retention of value added by MNEs, which may prefer keeping at home the tasks at higher potential to safeguard present and future competitive advantages. By country, intermediate stages of production are at higher value when performed by foreign affiliates, whereas domestic producers retain higher value at the very top and at the very bottom of the supply chain, organized either as independent suppliers or as domestic affiliates. Although an economic theory is still missing for explaining how and why value generation is non-linear along a typical technological sequence, here we argue that a microfoundation with firm-level data is useful for understanding the growth potential of countries' specialization patterns along different segments of supply chains.
    Keywords: global value chains, global supply chains, downstreamness, smile curve, downstreamness, value added, heterogeneous firms, multinational enterprises
    JEL: F23 F15 F14 L23 L25 L22
    Date: 2017–04–10
  19. By: Doireann Fitzgerald; Stefanie Haller; Yaniv Yedid-Levi
    Abstract: We document how export quantities and prices evolve after entry to a market. Controlling for marginal cost, and taking account of selection on idiosyncratic demand, there are economically and statistically significant dynamics of quantities, but no dynamics of prices. To match these facts, we estimate a model where firms invest in customer base through non-price actions (e.g. marketing and advertising), and learn gradually about their idiosyncratic demand. The model matches quantity, price and exit moments. Parameter estimates imply costs of adjusting investment in customer base, and slow learning about demand, both of which generate sluggish responses of sales to shocks.
    Keywords: Exporter dynamics; Customer base; Learning
    JEL: F1 L11
    Date: 2017–01
  20. By: Sandra Sequeira; Nathan Nunn; Nancy Qian
    Abstract: We study the effects of European immigration to the United States during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920) on economic prosperity today. We exploit variation in the extent of immigration across counties arising from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and the gradual expansion of the railway network across the United States. We find that locations with more historical immigration today have higher incomes, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment. The long-run effects appear to arise from the persistence of sizeable short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.
    JEL: N31 N32 N61 N62 N71 N72 N91 N92
    Date: 2017–03
  21. By: Aleksandr Vashchilko
    Abstract: This paper looks at the effects of the trade wars that followed 2014 events in Ukraine on Belarus. The estimation of the model predicts the increase in the tari? revenue collected by Belarus. Because of ban on imports, the tariff revenue of Russian Federation declines. Being a part of Customs Union, Belarus needs to participate in the tariff revenue redistribution. The need to participate in the tariff revenue redistribution and the decline in the tariff revenue collected by Russian Federation lead to the decrease in the welfare of Belarus. To avoid this decrease, Belarus should argue for the modification of the redistribution schedule.
    Keywords: trade wars, FTA, CU
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Emiko Fukase; Will Martin
    Abstract: Sub-Saharan African exports of horticultural and processed agricultural products are growing in line with the major shift towards these products in world markets. Continued growth in these exports may be vitally important for expanding returns from African agriculture and for increasing its overall exports. Policy reforms such as reductions in the tariff escalation facing Africa, improvements in the productivity of agricultural processing, and reductions in trade barriers within Africa and beyond would all further stimulate exports of processed agriculture. While essential, expansion of these exports should be regarded as complements to—rather than substitutes for—development of other dynamic export sectors.
    Date: 2016
  23. By: Constant, Amelie F.; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
    Abstract: This paper examines the migration and labor mobility in the European Union and elaborates on their importance for the existence of the EU. Against all measures of success, the current public debate seems to suggest that the political consensus that migration is beneficial is broken. This comes with a crisis of European institutions in general. Migration and labor mobility have not been at the origin of the perceived cultural shift. The EU in its current form and ambition could perfectly survive or collapse even if it solves its migration challenge. But it will most likely collapse, if it fails to solve the mobility issue by not preserving free internal labor mobility and not establishing a joint external migration policy.
    Keywords: labor mobility,migration,European Union,refugees
    JEL: D01 D02 D61 F02 F16 F22 F66 J6
    Date: 2017
  24. By: Warwick J. McKibbin; Jong Wha Lee; Weifeng Liu; Cheol Jong Song
    Abstract: This paper explores the economic impacts of Korean unification on North and South Korea. It presents a new consistent database on macroeconomic, sectoral and trade data, and an input output table for the North Korean economy, and then incorporates it in a global intertemporal multi-sector general equilibrium model. Assuming three hypothetical scenarios such as North Korea’s reform and gradual convergence, its sudden collapse and immediate unification, and chaos and crises in both Koreas, we quantify the consequences of Korean unification on economic activity, trade and capital flows in the two Koreas. The results highlight the importance of the unification processes and of alternative policy responses in both Koreas to the economic impacts of unification.
    Keywords: Korean unification, North Korea, economic integration, dynamic general equilibrium, economic growth, convergence
    JEL: F15 H77 O19 O23 O53
    Date: 2017–04
  25. By: Igor Bagayev; Ronald B. Davies
    Abstract: As is well established, one prediction of the heterogenous firms literature spearheaded by Melitz (2003) is that trade liberalization, by increasing import competition, drives less productive domestic firms from the market. This increases average productivity of the domestic economy via the “selection effect”. In addition, it has the potential to affect the skewness of the observed productivity distribution, i.e. the gap between the productivity of the median firm and average productivity. We examine these predictions empirically using data on 28 sectors across 99 countries. On the whole, we find that higher protection levels lower average productivity and drive a larger wedge between mean and median productivity. This latter suggests that policy decisions based on mean outcomes may arrive at different conclusions than those based on median voters.
    Keywords: Productivity distribution; Heterogeneous firms; Non-tariff measures
    JEL: F12 F13
    Date: 2017–02
  26. By: Francis Ziba; Mwanda Phiri
    Abstract: The last two decades have seen rapid economic growth in Zambia and the proliferation of foreign supermarket chain stores. However, this growth has translated into neither significant job creation nor significant poverty reduction. Furthermore, while the expansion of supermarket chains in Zambia has continued, local processing firms’ participation in supermarket value chains remains limited. This paper assesses the hindrances to local processing firms’ participation in supermarket value chains and how those firms’ participation might stimulate growth through regional trade. Our results show that local processing firms’ participation in regional supermarket value chains is constrained by a number of factors that pose either strategic or structural barriers to entry.
    Date: 2017
  27. By: Hu, Cui; Tan, Yong
    Abstract: This paper studies how learning from neighboring firms affects the behaviors of new importers. We first develop a learning model in which firms update their beliefs about the import price in foreign markets based on several factors, including import prices and number of neighboring firms that import from the same country. The updating proceeds according to the Bayesian rule. The model predicts that a positive signal about import prices revealed by neighboring importers encourages entry and increases initial imports from the same country. The signal plays a stronger role when it is revealed by more neighbors. Using a transaction-level dataset of Chinese importers over the 2000-2006 period, we find supporting evidence for the model's predictions. Our results are robust to controlling for various fixed effects and different subsamples.
    Keywords: Learning to Import; Bayesian Updating; Agglomeration; Uncertainty
    JEL: D8 F1 F2
    Date: 2017–04–04
  28. By: Yvon Pesqueux (LIRSA - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Sciences de l'Action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM])
    Abstract: Si, avec la mondialisation, on se pose la question de savoir s'il s'agit d'une métaphore, alors, comme toute métaphore, il s'agit de savoir à quoi la notion se substitue. Ne serait-ce pas la remise en question de la souveraineté de l'Etat-nation, où territoire géographique et territoire institutionnel de la souveraineté sont confondus. Rappelons que la souveraineté s'exprime par l'expression d'une autorité au travers d'instruments formels de gouvernement et venant produire une régulation a priori et indiscutable. A ce moment-là, la mondialisation pourrait être considérée comme une version floue de la privatisation. De la souveraineté Cette crise de la souveraineté de l'Etat-nation est en effet une des caractéristiques du « moment libéral » 1 dont la déterritorialisation suscite, en réponse, quatre acceptions de la souveraineté, outre celle qui subsiste pour l'Etat-nation, deux économiques, une politique et une à la fois politique et territoriale au sens géographique du terme :-la CorporateGovernance constitue la forme codifiée de la souveraineté dans le cadre d'un territoire économique, celui de la grande entreprise, matérialisation d'une inter-régulation venant en quelque sorte confondre droit de propriété et souveraineté,-la « gouvernance des marchés » constitue une forme non codifiée de la souveraineté et donc plus émergente dans le cadre d'un autre territoire économique, celui des marchés financiers, matérialisation d'une autorégulation a posteriori,-la gouvernance comprise au sens large constitue la forme de la souveraineté dans le cadre d'un territoire politique « nouveau », celui de la supranationalité, c'est-à-dire celui d'institutions politiques telles que l'Union Européenne, la Banque Mondiale, l'OCDE qui bénéficient d'une délégation de souveraineté non contrôlée démocratiquement par les Etats (matérialisation d'une inter-régulation d'ordre politique),-mais aussi celle de l'infra-nationalité avec des « régions » qui ne correspondent d'ailleurs pas forcément à des régions administratives (le territoire « Seine – Nord », par exemple) lieu d'une autorégulation. La souveraineté inhérente aux « infra-territoires » peut être reliée à la notion de « localisme » pour ce qui est de son inscription géographique et à celle de clusterou d'écosystème d'affaires pour ce qui relève de sa dimension socio-économique, d'où l'importance accordée à la connectivité et au réseau ; la double dimension de l'ethnicité et de l'authenticité d'une part, de l'expertise et de la connectivité d'autre part, sont sans doute ce qui marque le plus la construction sociale et politique de l'« infra-territoire ». A une souveraineté partielle et partiale des grandes entreprises correspond une souveraineté des marchés qui s'ajoutent à une souveraineté des territoires politiques supra ou infra nationaux, puisqu'ils bénéficient également d'une délégation de souveraineté tout aussi peu contrôlée démocratiquement. Ces quatre « nouveaux » niveaux de souveraineté se situent en tension les uns par rapport aux autres, mais aussi en tension avec la souveraineté résiduelle de l'Etat-nation.
    Keywords: mondialisation, organisation, modèle organisationnel
    Date: 2017–04–10
  29. By: Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan; Simon Lester
    Abstract: The Panel Report in Ukraine - Passenger Cars provides an opportunity to revisit an old debate over the role of safeguard measures in the WTO. With regard to the legal findings, the panel followed the established jurisprudence in this area, and found a number of violations of the Safeguards Agreement. With regard to the economics, we delve more deeply into the economic and political background of the safeguards investigation. Ukraine was hit by the economic crisis shortly after its WTO accession that significantly liberalized import tariffs on passenger cars. Next, we offer a de novo look at the injury and causation issues in this case, and discuss the challenges of an industry reliant on offshored production that sees a safeguard as a mechanism to attract FDI for production. We conclude with an assessment of the operation of the WTO?s safeguards regime, along with some tentative suggestions for reform. Overall, our examination of the economic analysis by the investigating authority and the legal review by the WTO panel raises questions about particular aspects of the domestic and WTO processes, but concludes that the system worked well in this case.
    Keywords: Safeguards, WTO disputes, Trade remedies trade protection, Ukraine
    JEL: F13 F53 F63
    Date: 2016–10
  30. By: Kim , Heung Chong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Young Gui (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Han , Minsoo (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Jong Duk (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Cho , Moon hee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lim, You-Jin (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Ko , Younglo (Government of the Republic of Kosovo - Ministry of Culture, Youth and Sport); Cheon , Changmin (Korea Capital Market Institute (KCMI)); Choi , soon yeong (Korea Capital Market Institute (KCMI)); Hong , Sung Wook (Texas A&M University); Min , Seong-hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 2016년 6월 23일 영국의 EU 탈퇴 국민투표에서 브렉시트가 결정되자, 전 세계는 큰 충격에 휩싸였고 세계경제에 불확실성이 더해졌다. 국민투표 이후 지난 6개월 동안 EU 탈퇴과정으로 인한 혼란이 계속되고 있으며, 브렉시트가 향후 몇 년 동안 세계경제의 불안요인으로 자리 잡을 것으로 보인다. 이 연구는 현재 진행 중인 브렉시트의 복합적인 측면을 이해하고 한국에 미치는 영향을 폭넓게 파악하기 위한 종합적 연구의 일환으로, 브렉시트 탈퇴협상의 진행상황과 향후 전망, 탈퇴과정상에서 예상되는 여러 문제점과 법적 쟁점, 브렉시트의 거시경제적 영향과 우리나라 산업에 미치는 영향, 한·EU FTA를 포함한 한·EU 경제통상관계의 변화에 대한 경제학적·법적 해석을 통한 정책 시사점 등 다양한 이슈를 폭넓게 다루고 있다. English Abstract: The Brexit referendum, which took place on 23 June, 2016, revealed the British people's willingness for their country to leave the EU. The year 2017 will witness the beginning of Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU taking place in a time full of uncertainties arising from the possibility of the negotiations extending beyond the originally planned duration of two years, ambiguity in EU’s competency areas leading to a complicated decision-making process in the Council, whether or not British MEPs should be given voting rights in the European Parliament, and so forth. One of the key issues in the relation between the UK and the EU in the post-Brexit era is whether or not the UK maintains full access to the Single Market, which is directly related to the issue of if the principle of free movement of the four factors of people, capital, goods and services still holds after Brexit. It will be a key factor to evaluate accessibility to the Single Market if British sovereignty on commercial policy and immigration is restored, and the principle of homogeneity does hold. Thinking carefully over several cases of the models of Single Market, half Single Market, or non-Single Market would lead to a pessimistic reasoning that the UK would hardly be able to maintain Single Market accessibility, and be inclined to take the non-Single Market model.
    Date: 2016–12–30
  31. By: Igor Bagayev; Ronald B. Davies
    Abstract: One rationale for the infant industry argument is that, by protecting domestic firms from foreign competition, this increases rents and investment in innovation and other growth enhancing measures. Using data on 4,750 firms across 13 developing countries, we examine whether protection via tariffs or non-tariff measures (SPS and TBT specifically) increase innovation in either products or processes. We find no such evidence; instead we find a small negative impact of protection, particularly tariffs and TBTs, on innovation.
    Keywords: Non-tariff measures; Technical barriers to trade; Innovation; Infant industry
    JEL: F13 H57 F12
    Date: 2017–01
  32. By: Eugenia Bessonova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Gonchar Ksenia (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of court conditions on multinational decisions on entry, subsidiary size and entry mode across subnational regions in Russia. We apply the literature on heterogeneous firms and the institution-based view of investor behavior, which predict that higher institutional costs raise the size and productivity cut-off of start-up subsidiaries. Our empirical results based on microestablishment data of foreign-owned firms in Russia show that a weaker judicial framework and stronger political power of the local governor significantly de-stimulate entry. The majority of multinationals enter Russia, which is viewed as a high-risk country, through large and very large subsidiaries wholly owned by the foreign parents. Variation of the business strategies of multinationals between regions is largely explained by regional court conditions, as foreign investors adapt their strategic decisions to compensate court deficiencies by increasing the size of the subsidiary and acquiring local institutional knowledge through partnership with resident firms. We also find that structural adjustments to court risks are typical for horizontal investments, which only serve the host market
    Keywords: Multinational enterprise, foreign direct investment, production location decision, affiliate size decision, entry mode decision, institutions, Russia
    JEL: F10 F23 L22 R30
    Date: 2017
  33. By: Kwak , Sungil (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Cheong , Jae Wan (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim , Jegook (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Shin , Minlee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); La , Meeryung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Korean Abstract: 한국은 최근 직접투자를 통해 ASEAN과 상호 의존적인 경제관계를 확대하고 있으므로, 장기적 안목에서 어떻게 전략적 관계를 발전시켜나갈지 고민할 때다. 양자간 관계를 더욱 강화하기 위해 본 연구는 한국의 ASEAN 역내 지역생산네트워크 구축 전략과 방안을 제시한다. ASEAN 지역 생산네트워크 구축 경험을 분석하고, ASEAN에 진출한 한국기업과 현지 토착기업을 대상으로 설문 조사와 심층 인터뷰를 진행하여 현실감 있는 전략과 방안을 도출하였다. English Abstract: Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of production networks in the ASEAN region, which has emerged as a new production base and consumer market for Korea. If Korean firms establish regional production networks with intra-regional enterprises, they can improve production efficiency by heightening the possibility of local survival and international market competitiveness. Meanwhile, given the fact that Korea has gained a trade surplus of about $ 30 billion in 2015 from the ASEAN region, Korean firms should seek further cooperation with local ASEAN firms. If the new protectionism that has been spreading across the world contaminates ASEAN member states (AMS), AMS may complain about the trade imbalance. ASEAN member states have recently demonstrated their willingness to support the participation of SMEs in global production networks. If firms in AMS successfully participate in a global production network and upgrade their competitiveness, they can become competitors to Korean firms working in the ASEAN region. The utilization of local firms can be considered a countermeasure against the growth of ASEAN firms. Based on the above needs, it will be necessary to establish regional production networks (RPN) in the ASEAN region, as a new strategy for increasing both the sustainability and efficiency of Korean firms in ASEAN. In addition, this will lead to the expansion of exports. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to establish strategies for regional production networks in the ASEAN region.
    Date: 2016–12–30
  34. By: XU Peng
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relationship between foreign institutional ownership and risk taking, and between risk taking and firm performance. Foreign ownership is positively related to risk taking, which, in turn, has statistically and economically significant effects on corporate sales growth and firm performance. During the credit crisis, risk taking was also positively related to corporate earnings, and thus higher risk-taking firms had smaller cash flow shortfalls. However, foreign ownership does not have direct effects on corporate sales growth or firm performance. Moreover, strong risk avoidance cannot be explained by a bank-centered governance system after a series of banking deregulation steps and decreased bank ownership. Our results suggest that the increased presence of foreign investors in Japan improves corporate value via encouraging value-enhancing risk taking. To intensify the roles of foreign investors, policymakers must improve government regulations to enhance the import of good corporate governance led by foreign investors.
    Date: 2017–04
  35. By: Barreda, Rocio; Boza, Sofía; Espinoza, Macarena; Guerrero, Monica
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 4/2017 by Sofia Boza, Monica Guerrero, Roccio Barreda and Macarena Espinoza
    Abstract: In Latin American countries, economic growth has been reflected in a generalized change of eating patterns, transforming in a few decades from high rates of under-nutrition to frequent obesity problems in the population. This overweight crisis raises the propensity of suffering important health issues. Changes in food labelling regulations, with the aim of giving the consumer more information, have been part of the proposed strategy to fight against this overweight problem in some Latin American countries. The objective of this paper is to present Chilean and Peruvian food labeling regulations, as well as the review of the evolution hitherto of their discussion within national industry and especially multilateral trade forums.
    Date: 2017–03–13
  36. By: Hylke Vandenbussche; William Connell Garcia; Wouter Simons; Elena Zaurino
    Date: 2017
  37. By: Roesmara Donna, Duddy; Widodo, Tri; Adiningsih, Sri
    Abstract: This paper investigates the comparative advantage pattern of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the period 2000 and 2010. Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) Index, paired sample F-test, t-test, and Spearman’s Rank Correlation are applied, This paper concludes thatthere are significant differences in comparative advantages among countries in the MENA region for 2000 and 2010 period. In addition, the stronger competition occured in resource-poor and labor abundant, resource-rich and labor abundant, and resource-rich and labor importing countries.
    Keywords: comparative advantage, RSCA, MENA
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2017–04–01
  38. By: Wallin, Tina (Centre for Entrepreneurship and Spatial Economics (CEnSE), Jönköping International Business School, Sweden)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study the firms’ internal knowledge in combination with the external knowledge diversity in their region to examine their joint relation to export diversification. Using a data set of the full population of Swedish manufacturing exporters for the period 2003-2013, allows for identifying when firms introduce new products on the export market. The results indicate that firms in the medium-high tech and the medium-low tech manufacturing sectors only benefit from a larger external knowledge diversity if they themselves have some internal knowledge increasing their absorptive capacity. Changing spatial scale or increasing the time lag yields mostly the same results, but extending the external knowledge diversity to include all types of education subjects does not. This further supports the suggested importance of an absorptive capacity to facilitate the acquisition, assimilation and usage of related external knowledge in producing new products.
    Keywords: new product; export diversification; absorptive capacity; related knowledge
    JEL: C33 D22 D83 F14 J24 O31
    Date: 2017–04–06
  39. By: Sherman Robinson
    Abstract: This paper considers the role of equilibrium concepts in economic simulation models. The paper defines different types of equilibria and describes their importance in simulation models in terms of their power to describe empirically the results of disequilibrium adjustment processes that then need not be explicitly modelled. The paper addresses the issue of the validity of different equilibrium concepts as “descriptive” or “realistic” and considers the “domain of applicability” of different types of equilibria in different economic models. Examples are drawn from various classes of models: CGE (static and dynamic), DSGE, macroeconomic, multi-market, microsimulation, agent-based, and game theoretic. The focus is on constructing "realistic" or "valid" empirical simulation models that rely on economic equilibrium concepts. Equilibrium concepts are very powerful in simplifying the construction of simulation models in that they obviate the need to incorporate disequilibrium adjustment processes in the models. They improve model clarity and simplicity, avoiding the "black box" syndrome common in simulation model. Suggest standards for judging the degree of realism of different economic simulation models, and for approaches to empirical validation.
    Keywords: Examples from various country/global CGE models, Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling
    Date: 2016–07–04
  40. By: Niamh Moloney
    Abstract: The EU/UK negotiations on Brexit are now imminent following the formal notification by Prime Minister May of the UK’s intention to leave the EU in the ‘Article 50 letter’ delivered to European Council President Tusk on 29 March 2017. The treatment of financial services will be a critical element of these negotiations. Prime Minister May had previously indicated in her 17 January 2017 speech on the UK’s negotiating objectives that the UK is to leave the single market and confirmed this position in the Article 50 letter. Under current EU financial law the UK will accordingly become a ‘third country’ on Brexit. UK financial firms and actors will lose the ability to ‘passport’ into the single market in financial services from the UK – unless passporting rights are preserved under any new EU/UK arrangement, an outcome which is highly unlikely. This paper considers the risks to the EU from its oft-described ‘investment banker’ becoming a third country and explores the regulatory remedies which may be available and the preferences which may shape these remedies. The paper adopts a legal-institutionalist perspective, which draws on the insights of comparative/international political economy, to examine the implications of the UK’s future status as a ‘third country’ for the EU capital market and for its current flagship Capital Markets Union (CMU) agenda. The extent to which EU regulation is transformative is contested in relation to the development of the EU capital market. But the EU regulatory regime which governs third country access to the EU capital market is likely to be a significant determinant of the strength of the EU’s capacity to absorb the loss of the UK from the single EU capital market and to contain related stability, liquidity, and efficiency risks. Drawing on international experience with access arrangements and on EU preferences and incentives, the paper considers the likely future of the current third country regime and how it might be re-configured so that third country access is based on a more secure footing.
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2017–03–08

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