nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2017‒02‒26
forty-nine papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does bilateral trade policy impact on backward and forward participation? By Jean Baliè; Davide Del Prete; Emiliano Magrini; Pierluigi Montalbano; Silvia Nenci
  2. The impact of 3D printing on trade and FDI By Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Prettner, Klaus
  3. Market-specific trade costs and firm dynamics in Pakistan: Evaluating the US integrated cargo containers control programme By Salamat Ali; Richard Kneller; Chris Milner
  4. The political economy of import substitution in the 21st century: the challenge of recapturing the domestic market in Rwanda By Pritish Behuria
  5. Do Migrant and Business Networks Promote International Royalty Receipts? By TOMOHARA Akinori
  6. Exchange Rate and Utilization of Free Trade Agreements: Focus on rules of origin By HAYAKAWA Kazunobu; Han-Sung KIM; YOSHIMI Taiyo
  7. Exports and American divergence. Lost decades and Emancipation collapse in Latin American and the Caribbean 1820-1870 By Tena Junguito, Antonio; Federico, Giovanni
  8. Transparency in Non-Tariff Measures : An International Comparison By Lili Yan ING; Janine WALZ; Olivier CADOT
  9. Non-tariff Measures in ASEAN: A Simple Proposal By Lili Yan ING; Olivier CADOT; Shujiro URATA; Rizqy ANANDHIKA
  10. China’s Dual Export Sector By Fabrice Defever; Alejandro Riaño
  11. Asymmetric tariff pass-through to trade prices By Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  12. Multi-Product Firms and Product Quality By Kalina Manova; Zhihong Yu
  13. When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in Interwar Britain By Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  14. WTO Membership and the Shift to Consumption Taxes By Büttner, Thiess; Madzharova, Boryana
  15. Cooperation in WTO’s Tariff Waters? By Marcelo OLARREAGA; Alessandro NICITA; Peri SILVA
  16. Technical Change, Non-Tariff Barriers, and the Development of the Italian Locomotive Industry,1850-1913 By Carlo Ciccarelli; Alessandro Nuvolari
  17. TRADE IN CARBON AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CARBON TARIFFS By Böhringer, Christoph; Schneider, Jan; Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel
  18. Heterogeneous Effects of Tariff and Nontariff Policy Barriers in General Equilibrium By Egger, Peter Hannes; Egger, Peter
  19. Do democratic transitions attract foreign investors and how fast? By Jean Lacroix; Pierre-Guillaume Méon; Khalid Sekkat
  20. Offshoring and firm overlap By Capuano, Stella; Egger, Hartmut; Koch, Michael; Schmerer, Hans-Jörg
  21. International trade and domestic competition: Evidence from Belgium By Bramati, Maria Caterina; Gaggero, Alberto A.; Solomon, Edna
  22. The impact of technical regulations on trade: Evidence from South Africa By Siyakiya, Puruweti
  23. Capital Market Imperfections and Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium By Irlacher, Michael; Unger, Florian
  24. Push Factors of Emerging Multinational Corporations: Evidence from South Africa and Egypt By Mustafa Sakr; Andre Jordaan
  25. A spatial regression approach to FDI in Vietnam: province-level evidence By Esiyok, Bulent; Ugur, Mehmet
  26. Effects of Intermediate Input Tariff Reduction on Innovations in China By Qing Liu; Larry D QiuAuthor-Workplace-Name: The University of Hong Kong
  27. German Direct Investments in the Czech Republic – Employment Effects on German Multinational Enterprises By Schäffler, Johannes
  28. The Economic Impact of East-West Migration on the European Union By Martin Kahanec; Mariola Pytlikova
  29. Europe in a new world order By Maria Demertzis; André Sapir; Guntram B. Wolff
  30. High-skilled migration and agglomeration By Pekkala Kerr, Sari; Kerr, William; Özden, Çağlar; Parsons, Christopher
  31. The evolution of world trade from 1995 to 2014: A network approach By Freddy Cepeda-López; Fredy Gamboa-Estrada; Carlos León-Rincón; Hernán Rincón-Castro
  32. Offshoring, Firm Selection, and Job Polarisation in General Equilibrium By Egger, Hartmut; Udo, Kreickemeier; Jens, Wrona
  33. On the heterogeneous effect of trade on unemployment By Céline CARRERE; Marco FUGAZZA; Marcelo OLARREAGA; Frédéric ROBERT-NICOUD
  34. Trade, Infrastructure and Development By Marcelo OLARREAGA
  35. Migration settlement networks in the Carpathian Basin, 2001–2011 By Kincses, Áron; Bálint, Lajos
  36. EU Mobility By Ritzen, Jo; Kahanec, Martin; Haas, Jasmina
  37. The Impact of Migration on Child Labor: Theory and Evidence from Brazil By Genicot, Garance; Mayda, Anna Maria; Mendola, Mariapia
  38. The balance between investor protection and the right to regulate in investment treaties: A scoping paper By David Gaukrodger
  39. CO2 Emission Intensity and Exporting: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data By Richter, Philipp; Schiersch, Alexander
  40. Addressing the balance of interests in investment treaties: The limitation of fair and equitable treatment provisions to the minimum standard of treatment under customary international law By David Gaukrodger
  41. Drivers of international shipments of hazardous waste: the role of policy and technology endowment By Giovanni Marin; Francesco Nicolli; Emy Zecca
  42. Using Internal and External Sources of Information to Reduce Customs Evasion By Chalendard, Cyril
  43. Improving EU Market Access for Jordanian Exports By Stéphanie BRUNELIN; Jaime DE MELO; Alberto PORTUGAL-PEREZ
  44. High-Skilled Immigration, STEM Employment, and Non-Routine-Biased Technical Change By Nir Jaimovich; Henry E. Siu
  45. Breaking down barriers when analyzing data to support customs modernization: a case study in Gabon By Joël CARIOLLE; Cyril CHALENDARD; Anne-Marie GEOURJON; Bertrand LAPORTE
  46. Export Promotion: what works? By Marcelo OLARREAGA; Stephan SPERLICH; Virginie TRACHSEL
  47. The Network View: applications to international trade and bank exposures By Luis Fernandez; Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago
  48. The impact of foreign direct investments on regional air pollution in the Republic of Korea: A way ahead to achieve the green growth strategy? By Hille, Erik
  49. How Immigrants Helped EU Labor Markets to Adjust during the Great Recession By Kahanec, Martin; Guzi, Martin

  1. By: Jean Baliè (FAO); Davide Del Prete (IMT School for advanced studies; FAO); Emiliano Magrini (FAO); Pierluigi Montalbano (Sapienza University; University of Sussex); Silvia Nenci (University of Roma 3)
    Abstract: The most recent literature on international trade highlights the key role of global value chains (GVCs) in structural transformation, development and growth. The common perception is that Africa, unlike most Latin American and Asian countries, has neither been able to intercept the main changes in trade patterns nor enter massively into global production networks. This work provides some insight into this topic. Using the EORA Input-Output Tables, we analyze whether bilateral import tariffs and shifts in trade regimes associated with regional trade agreements affect the backward participation (i.e., the use of foreign inputs for exports) and forward participation (i.e., the use of domestic intermediates in third country exports) of the SSA countries’ agriculture and food GVCs. Our results show that, despite their low world trade shares, GVC participation in SSA economies is increasing over time, mainly upstream as suppliers of unprocessed inputs. Furthermore, we show that the value added demand for SSA agricultural products primarily originates from the EU and emerging countries rather than from regional partners. Finally, by making use of a “gravity-like†identification strategy, we also find evidence that bilateral trade protection significantly affects GVC backward and forward participation in agriculture and food. These results call for a refinement of trade policy priorities in SSA.
    Keywords: global value chains, agro-food activities, multi-region input-output tables, bilateral trade policies, gravity model, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F15 L23 O11 O55 Q17
    Date: 2017–02
  2. By: Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Prettner, Klaus
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of 3D printing technologies on the volume of trade and on the structure of foreign direct investment (FDI). A standard model with firm-specific heterogeneity generates three main predictions. First, 3D printers are introduced in areas with high economic activity that also face high transport costs. Second, technological progress in 3D printing leads to FDI dependent on traditional production structures gradually being replaced with FDI based on 3D printing techniques. At this stage, international trade remains unaffected. Finally, at later stages, with 3D printers being widely used, further technological progress in 3D printing leads to a gradual replacement of international trade. Empirical evidence indicates that countries subject to higher transport costs and with high levels of economic activity are indeed among those importing more 3D printers. Anecdotal evidence also supports the second and third predictions of the model.
    JEL: F10 F23 O33
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Salamat Ali; Richard Kneller; Chris Milner
    Abstract: Using novel firm-level microdata that track the locations of export-processing stations and modes of shipments over time, this study examines the trade effect of the Integrated Cargo Container Control (IC3) programme, launched between Pakistan and the US in the wake of 9/11 to thwart the potential vulnerability of cargo containers to terrorist exploitations. Although primarily a security measure, IC3 affected the beyond-the-border and behind-the-border costs of exporting to the US. We exploit the exogenous nature of this shock and its specificity to one export market in the identification strategy. Using the EU as a counterfactual, the difference-in-difference estimates show that after this intervention, Pakistan’s overall exports to the US relative to the EU dropped by between 8% and 11% depending on the fixed effects structure. This security policy caused therefore a significant loss of US market access between 2007 and 2014. The IC3 effect on trade was, however, heterogeneous across firms depending upon where they exported from pre-IC3 and whether they switched export location following IC3. These findings have policy implications for the adoption of similar technologies aimed at ensuring the security of the supply chain together with facilitating trade in the wake of the emerging security situation in other parts of the world.
    Keywords: Trade Costs, Supply Chain Security, Scanning, Integrated Cargo Container Control, 9/11 and Trade, Trade Diversion JEL Codes: F1, F13, F14
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Pritish Behuria
    Abstract: Import substitution has been marginalised from development policy discourse since the 1970s. This paper examines the Rwandan government’s recent attempt at reintroducing industrial policy with some attention devoted to ‘recapturing the domestic market’ – a term used to replace the ignominy associated with ‘import substitution.’ The paper examines two cases – cement and textiles – where such policies have been recently established in Rwanda. The paper argues that any attempt at recapturing the domestic market will require a strategy close to the policies of East Asian developmental states in terms of ‘picking winners.’ However, strategically maintaining reciprocity through statebusiness relationships is only part of the challenge. Though foreign investors have been leant on initially, actions must be put in place to develop local capitalist partners who may step in if foreign investors leave once incentives are reduced. This is further complicated by the government’s failure to develop partnerships with existing local capitalist partners. The Rwandan government is also constrained by a small market size. Any attempt at import substitution must occur in the context of accessing larger markets through the East African Community (EAC). This paper demonstrates that such regional trade agreements constitute a much greater constraint on the use of industrial policy than multilateral trade agreements or bilateral trade agreements with the United States of America or European countries (although pressure from donors may also contribute to reducing policy space). Such challenges showcase how the Rwandan government has sought to build reciprocal control mechanisms while attempting to access large markets through regional integration. Though the Rwandan government has made some progress recently, state intervention is required to reintroduce import substitution in the 21st century and must be balanced by the need to meet domestic and international political constraints.
    Keywords: Import substitution; Industrial Policy; Rwanda; political economy; textiles; cement
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2017–02
  5. By: TOMOHARA Akinori
    Abstract: This study examines how migration and business networks affect trade on intellectual property using bilateral data on Japan (or the United States) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries. The analyses are distinct in that they examine network effects comprehensively by combining previous works on tangible trade-migration relationships, together with the literature on trade-foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships. We show that intellectual property exports are positively related with the number of immigrants residing in Japan (or the United States). However, other network effects, specifically business networks, are not necessarily universal because two forces, i.e., network effects and trade-FDI interactions, could operate in opposite directions. We conclude that positive immigration network effects occur, but emigration and business network effects could vary depending on the development stages of intellectual property trade.
    Date: 2017–01
  6. By: HAYAKAWA Kazunobu; Han-Sung KIM; YOSHIMI Taiyo
    Abstract: This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme considering the importance of rules of origin (RoOs). Exchange rates affect exporters' compliance with RoOs by changing the so-called value-added ratio, which is defined as [1 - (Non-originating input price / Export product price)]. We present theoretical underpinnings on this potential linkage with a model of pricing-to-market and provide an empirical examination using rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. The theoretical framework proposes that a depreciation of exporters' currency against importers' currency enhances FTA utilization by improving the value-added ratio, and such effects are stronger for products with higher demand elasticity. We also show strong empirical support for our theoretical predictions.
    Date: 2017–01
  7. By: Tena Junguito, Antonio; Federico, Giovanni
    Abstract: The period 1820-1870, or 'lost decades', is widely regarded as the key moment in the opening of gap between Latin America and the United States. We test this statement with a new set of export series. We show that the performance of Latin American countries was quite good, although not outstanding. Mexico was hit by foreign policy crisis, but the only real basket case have been the British and French colonies in the Caribbean. The emancipation of slaves caused a collapse in their exports, favoring other tropical countries, including Cuba and Brazil. Further South, independent countries such as Argentine and Chile increased their share of world trade. In a nutshell, most of the divergence in the 1820-1870 in the Americas was between tropical countries rather than between Latin America and North America.
    Keywords: Independence and Emancipation; Early Nineteenth century; Latin America and the Caribbean; International Trade
    JEL: N10 F14
    Date: 2017–02
  8. By: Lili Yan ING (FERDI); Janine WALZ (FERDI); Olivier CADOT (Faculté des hautes études commerciales - Université de Lausanne)
    Abstract: We construct an index of NTM transparency based on notifications to the WTO under the SPS and TBT agreements, the existence of a trade portal giving ready access to trade-relevant regulations, the existence of NTM data collected under the MAST classification, and the results of an experiment conducted between 2015 and 2016 where we asked for specific regulations concerning the import of a particular product on behalf of a private company. The resulting country ranking shows that OECD countries are, by and large, the most transparent, but also shows that ASEAN countries score well compared to other developing countries. Keywords: International trade, Non-tariff measures, transparency, governance, index, ranking
    Keywords: International trade, Non-tariff measures, transparency, governance, index, ranking
    JEL: F12 F13 F14 F15 F6
    Date: 2016–12
  9. By: Lili Yan ING (FERDI); Olivier CADOT (Faculté des hautes études commerciales - Université de Lausanne); Shujiro URATA (FERDI); Rizqy ANANDHIKA (FERDI)
    Abstract: IntroductionAfter close to 70 years of trade liberalization, a series of recent events suggests that the tide may well be turning. International trade as a proportion of global gross domestic product (GDP) has stopped growing in the last decade, in what Constantinescu et al. (2015) dub the ‘Great Trade Slowdown’. Momentum for trade liberalization at the multilateral level has stumbled on the Doha round’s failure, with limited hopes for revival. Even regional trade agreements, sometimes seen as alternatives to multilateral liberalization, are under heavy attack by politicians of all strides in the United States, traditionally the bulwark of free trade. Last but not least, while the 2008–2009 global financial crisis did not lead to the explosion of protectionism feared by many, the use of temporary trade measures by emerging countries has been markedly rising (Didier et al., 2016). .../...
    Date: 2016–12
  10. By: Fabrice Defever; Alejandro Riaño
    Abstract: China has transitioned from being an almost autarkic economy to become the world's largest exporter in less than three decades. Given this unique transformation, this paper investigates if the key stylized facts that characterize the behavior of firms' exports around the world, can also describe China's experience after joining the World Trade Organization. We find that, consistent with received wisdom, relatively few Chinese firms engage in exporting, and those doing so, are on average, larger and more productive than their domestic counterparts. However, unlike other large and developed countries, a substantial share of Chinese exporters sell the majority of their output abroad. In fact, the distribution of Chinese exporters according to their export intensity - the share of their revenues accounted for by exports - is strikingly bimodal. In contrast to recent work that has focused on the technological factors that explain the prevalence of high-intensity exporters, we instead concentrate on the role played by China's heterodox trade policy regime in promoting pure exporters. Our empirical analysis suggests that trade policy has played an instrumental role in fostering a dual export sector. Notably, nine out of ten manufacturing exporters in China are eligible to enjoy fiscal incentives contingent on export performance.
    Keywords: China; Firm-level exports; Export Intensity; Free Trade Zones; Export Processing Regimes
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Hayakawa, Kazunobu
    Abstract: This paper examines asymmetry in tariff pass-through, that is, how import prices react differently to the increase and decrease in most favored nation (MFN) rates. For this, we analyze Indonesia's imports because Indonesia not only reduced MFN rates for a significant number of products but also raised those rates for a large number of other products in 2010. The analysis results indicate asymmetric tariff pass-through: trade prices decrease when MFN rates decline but do not change when these rates rise. Furthermore, examining the effects of changes in MFN rates on product quality and quality-adjusted prices separately, we find that a decrease in trade prices when MFN rates decline is led by a reduction in (average) product quality. In addition, we find that controlling for the change in ad valorem equivalent rates, a change in tariffs from ad valorem form to specific form does not have any additional impact on import prices.
    Keywords: International trade, Imports, Prices, Tariff pass-through, Trade prices, Indonesia
    JEL: F15 F53
    Date: 2017–02
  12. By: Kalina Manova; Zhihong Yu
    Abstract: We examine the global operations of multi-product firms. We present a flexible heterogeneous-firm trade model with either limited or strong scope for quality differentiation. Using customs data for China during 2002-2006, we empirically establish that firms allocate activity across products in line with a product hierarchy based on quality. Firms vary output quality across their products by using inputs of different quality levels. Their core competence is in varieties of superior quality that command higher prices but nevertheless generate higher sales. In markets where they offer fewer products, firms concentrate on their core varieties by dropping low-quality peripheral goods on the extensive margin and by shifting sales towards top-quality products on the intensive margin. The product quality ladder also governs firms' export dynamics, both in general and in response to the exogenous removal of MFA quotas on textiles and apparel. Our results inform the drivers and measurement of firm performance, the effects of trade reforms, and the design of development policies.
    Keywords: trade, trade reforms, multi-product firms, product quality, export prices
    JEL: D22 F10 F12 F14 L10 L11 L15
    Date: 2017–02
  13. By: Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK’s imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain’s shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot.
    JEL: F13 F14 N74
    Date: 2017–02
  14. By: Büttner, Thiess; Madzharova, Boryana
    Abstract: This paper provides an empirical analysis as to what extent countries have been able to recover revenue losses from import duties due to trade liberalization policies through indirect taxes. In contrast to the existing literature, we identify major trade liberalization policies and explore their revenue effects. Specifically, we investigate how revenues from import duties and consumption tax revenues change as a result over the course of GATT/WTO accession. Employing a robust difference-in-difference specification as well as non-parametric methods, our results reveal a substantial, statistically significant inverse relationship between GATT/WTO membership and import duties supporting concerns about revenue losses. At the same time, however, we find a significant increase in revenues from indirect taxes and VAT. Our findings indicate that countries joining GATT/WTO, including low income countries, have successfully substituted revenues from import duties with higher indirect taxes including VAT.
    JEL: H24 F13 D12
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Marcelo OLARREAGA (FERDI); Alessandro NICITA (FERDI); Peri SILVA (FERDI)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which tariff cooperation is observed among World Trade Organization (WTO) members. With the help of a simple political economy model, we show that tariffs are positively correlated with the importer’s market power when they are set non-cooperatively, but negatively correlated when set cooperatively. We use this prediction to empirically identify the extent of cooperation in the WTO, and find that more than three quarters of WTO members’ tariffs are set non-cooperatively. Keywords: Export supply elasticities, WTO cooperation, tariff water
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2016–12
  16. By: Carlo Ciccarelli (University of Rome Tor Vergata, Department of Economics and Finance); Alessandro Nuvolari (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Institute of Economics)
    Abstract: The locomotive industry was one of the relatively sophisticated “high-tech” sectors in which Italy, a latecomer country, was successful before 1913. Using technical data on the performance of different vintages of locomotives, we construct a new industry-level index of technical change. We also study the impact of different policy instruments (import duties, non-tariff trade barriers and other discretionary interventions) in shaping the development of the industry. Our reassessment reveals the sound technological performance of Italian locomotives; the successful growth of this industry; and the critical role played by non-tariff barriers in its development.
    Keywords: technical progress, locomotive industry, non-tariff barriers, Italy, 19th century
    JEL: N73 O25
    Date: 2016–12
  17. By: Böhringer, Christoph; Schneider, Jan; Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel
    Abstract: Carbon-based import tariffs are discussed as policy measures to reduce carbon leakage and increase the global cost-effectiveness of unilateral CO2 emission pricing. We assess how the potential of carbon tariffs to increase cost-effectiveness of unilateral climate policy depends on the magnitude and composition of carbon embodied in trade. For our assessment, we combine multi-region input-output (MRIO) analysis with computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis based on data from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) for the period 1995 to 2007. The MRIO analysis confirms that carbon embodied in trade has sharply increased during this period. Yet, the CGE analysis suggests that the effectiveness of carbon tariffs in reducing leakage and improving global-cost effectiveness of unilateral climate policy does not increase over time, whereas the potential to shift the economic burden of CO2 emissions reduction from abating developed regions to non-abating developing regions increases substantially.
    JEL: Q58 D57 D58
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Egger, Peter Hannes; Egger, Peter
    Abstract: Most applied work in international economics treats trade policy (a) as a linear component of trade costs and (b) as an exogenous variable. This paper proposes a structural modelling approach that allows for the estimation of (possibly) non-parametric effects of trade policy using a propensity score method to account for the endogeneity bias of trade policy. The findings point to important nonlinear effects of tariff and nontariff policy. Specifically, they suggest that interdependencies between nontariff policy barriers and tariffs are an important determinant of the partial impact of a given policy change. Overall, trade policy changes seem to be effective only for low- and medium-tariff trade flows. In general equilibrium, loosening the linearity assumption translates to an increased heterogeneity of predicted trade effects with the mean and median effect being up to three times as large in a flexible, nonparametric specification.
    JEL: F14 F13 C14
    Date: 2016
  19. By: Jean Lacroix; Pierre-Guillaume Méon; Khalid Sekkat
    Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of foreign direct investment net inflows (FDI) around democratic transitions, in a panel of 115 developing countries from 1970 to 2014, using an event-study method. We find no effect of democratic transitions on FDI net inflows on average. We then distinguish the effect of democratic transitions per se and the effect of its consolidation. To do so, we specifically focus on consolidated democratic transitions, defined as transitions that did not reverse during five years at least. We find that consolidated democratic transitions do increase FDI net inflows. The bulk of the improvement appears ten years after the transition. Furthermore, the effect of consolidated democratic transitions on FDI is not limited to their impact on political risk. When controlling for the political risk index of the International Country Risk Guide, the intrinsic effect of consolidated democratic transitions appears immediately after the transition, suggesting that higher political risk accompanying the early years of democratic transitions offsets the positive intrinsic effect of democratictransition on FDI. The results are robust to controlling for GDP per capita and schooling, to alternative codings of the variables capturing the transition, disaggregating the political risk measure into several sub-components and the exclusion of outliers. Moreover local projections, propensity score matching, and IV estimates lend credence to a causal interpretation of our results. Furthermore the longer the democratic history of a country is, the fewer FDI this country may expect to attract thanks to a new democratic transition.
    Keywords: FDI; Democratic transitions; Institutions; Development
    JEL: E20 F21 O11
    Date: 2017–02–20
  20. By: Capuano, Stella (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Egger, Hartmut; Koch, Michael; Schmerer, Hans-Jörg (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "We set up a model of offshoring with heterogeneous producers that captures two empirical regularities of German offshoring firms. There is selection of larger, more productive firms into offshoring. However, the selection is not sharp, and offshoring and non-offshoring firms coexist over a wide range of the revenue distribution. An overlap of offshoring and nonoffshoring firms emerges in our model because, in contrast to textbook models of trade with heterogeneous producers, we allow firms to differ in two technology parameters thereby decoupling the offshoring status of a firm from its revenues. In an empirical analysis, we employ firm-level data from Germany to estimate key parameters of the model and show that ignoring the overlap lowers the estimated gains from offshoring by more than 50 percent and, at the same time, exaggerates substantially the importance of the extensive margin for explaining the evolution of German offshoring over the last 25 years." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    JEL: F12 F14 L11
    Date: 2017–02–21
  21. By: Bramati, Maria Caterina; Gaggero, Alberto A.; Solomon, Edna
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of domestic market competition on firm-level export intensity. We employ a comprehensive dataset of Belgian firms from 2005–2008, when the fall in the number of firms engaged in trade was accompanied by a growing amount of transactions. The resulting increase in the domestic concentration of Belgian firms has sparked numerous debates, since the direction of causality between domestic market structure and export performance is unclear. We apply the fractional logit estimator and control for both self-selection and simultaneity bias. We find that a positive linkage exists between the level of competition and export intensity.
    Keywords: Competition; Domestic rivalry; Exports; National champion
    Date: 2015–06
  22. By: Siyakiya, Puruweti
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically the impact of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) by using the gravity model. The study used data from South Africa’s exports of all products and other product groupings destined to 57 selected countries which comprise both developing and developed countries. To control for misspecification error the study incorporated other explanatory variables. STATA system version 13 was used to analyze the regression of data ranging from 1995 to 2015. The results revealed that TBT notifications in general are trade restrictive. The regression results unravel that TBTs negatively affect mechanic and electrical products more than other product groupings. Accordingly for all exports in general the study’s findings are an increase in the number of TBTs has an effect of reducing exports by 4.88% on average. Given the results from the study it is imperative for South Africa to harmonize its standards with its trading partners.
    Keywords: Gravity Model; South Africa; Technical Regulation; WTO
    JEL: F1 F4
    Date: 2017–02–12
  23. By: Irlacher, Michael; Unger, Florian
    Abstract: This paper develops a new international trade model with capital market imperfections and endogenous borrowing costs in general equilibrium. A key element of our model is that firm heterogeneity arises from the interaction of credit constraints at the firm-level with financial frictions at the country-level. Producers differ in pledgeability of sales which results in firm heterogeneity, if financial institutions are imperfect. We show that endogenous adjustments of capital costs represent a new channel that reduces common gains from globalization. Trade liberalization increases the borrowing rate, leads to a reallocation of market shares towards unconstrained producers and a larger fraction of credit-rationed firms. This increases the within-industry variance of sales and reduces welfare gains as consumers dislike price heterogeneity. Our theory is consistent with new empirical patterns from World Bank firm-level data. We highlight that credit frictions are positively related to the degree of product market competition, and to the variance of sales across firms.
    JEL: F10 F36 F61
    Date: 2016
  24. By: Mustafa Sakr (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa); Andre Jordaan (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa and IPAG Business School, Paris, France)
    Abstract: As literature remains sparse regarding emerging African multinational corporations (EAMNCs), this article focuses on examining the key push factors (i.e. home country macroeconomic specifications) influencing the outward foreign direct investment flow from South Africa and Egypt. Based on dynamic panel data model estimation, the empirical research proves that trade openness, patent and the gross domestic product (GDP) and the GDP growth rate of South Africa and Egypt are dominant drivers of their outward foreign direct investment. In contrast, the number of investment treaties and inward foreign direct investment rate do not significantly influence outbound investment decisions of South African and Egyptian corporations.
    Keywords: South African MNCs, Egyptian MNCs, emerging African MNCs, emerging MNCs, push factor determinants of OFDI
    JEL: P45 F21
    Date: 2017–02
  25. By: Esiyok, Bulent; Ugur, Mehmet
    Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Vietnam have increased significantly in recent years and are distributed unequally between provinces. This paper aims to investigate the locational determinants of FDI in 62 Vietnamese provinces and whether spatial dependence is a significant factor that both researchers and policy-makers should take into account. We report that province-specific percapita income, secondary education enrolment, labor costs, openness to trade, and domestic investment affect FDI directly within the province itself and have indirect effects on FDI in neighboring provinces. The direct and indirect effects coexist with spill over effects and spatial dependence between provinces. Our findings indicate that FDI in Vietnam reflects a combination of complex vertical and export platform motivations on the part of foreign investors; and an agglomeration dynamics that may perpetuate the existing regional disparities in the distribution of FDI capital between provinces.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; spatial dependence; agglomeration; Vietnam
    Date: 2015–11–23
  26. By: Qing Liu (University of International Business and Economics); Larry D QiuAuthor-Workplace-Name: The University of Hong Kong
    Abstract: Innovation plays a key role in economic growth. In this paper, we investigate the effects of intermediate input tariff reduction on the innovation activities of domestic firms. Input tariff reduction has two opposite effects on the innovation decision of a firm: it may promote innovation because the cost of innovation activities decreases, but it may also result in a decrease in innovation because foreign technologies become cheaper. We use Chinese firm-level data from 1998 to 2007, which features a drastic input tariff cut in 2002 because of China's WTO accession, and find that input tariff cut results in less innovation undertaken by Chinese firms. The findings are obtained using the difference-in-differences technique and are robust to various specifications checks of the model. We also provide a theoretical framework to generate insights to the empirical findings.
    JEL: F13 F15 O14
    Date: 2017–02
  27. By: Schäffler, Johannes
    Abstract: Do investments in the Czech Republic lead to employment growth or employment losses in the German firms involved? To address this question, a unique database about German firms with foreign direct investments (FDI) in the Czech Republic and firms without FDI in any country has been established. By developing a new method for linking firm-level data with establishment-level data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), this database is linked with the IAB employment data. As the exact date of the investments in the Czech Republic is known, the employment development of firms with Czech affiliates and firms without FDI is compared for the same time periods. The analyses show that these groups actually develop differently. One year after the investment, the German workforce of the multinational enterprises (MNEs) shrinks relative to the employment of the reference group. The negative trend continues for some years. However, not all types of jobs are affected negatively. The negative effects refer to medium and low-skilled workers only, whereby the demand for high-skilled workers even increases after the investment.
    JEL: F15 F23 F66
    Date: 2016
  28. By: Martin Kahanec; Mariola Pytlikova
    Abstract: This study contributes to the literature on destination-country consequences of international migration with investigations on the effects of immigration from new EU member states and Eastern Partnership countries on the economies of old EU member states over the years 1995-2010. Using a rich international migration dataset and an empirical model accounting for the endogeneity of migration flows we find positive and significant effects of post-enlargement migration flows from new EU member states on old member states’ GDP, GDP per capita, and employment rate and a negative effect on output per worker. We also find small, but statistically significant negative effects of migration from Eastern Partnership countries on receiving countries’ GDP, GDP per capita, employment rate, and capital stock, but a positive significant effect on capital-to-labor ratio. These results mark an economic success of the EU enlargements and EU’s free movement of workers.
    Keywords: EU enlargement, free mobility of workers, migration impacts, European Single Market, east-west migration, Eastern Partnership
    JEL: J15 J61 J68
    Date: 2017–02–16
  29. By: Maria Demertzis; André Sapir; Guntram B. Wolff
    Abstract: THE ISSUE The United States is the European Union’s most important trade and bilateral investment partner, which has, until now, supported a multilateral trade system and European integration and has provided a security guarantee to the countries of the EU. But like other advanced economies, the US’s relative weight in the global economy has declined. The new US administration seems intent on replacing multilateralism with bilateral deals. In trade, it aims to secure new trade deals in order to reduce bilateral trade deficits and to protect, in particular, the US manufacturing sector. In climate policy, the US commitment to the Paris Agreement is being questioned. In defence, the security umbrella appears less certain than previously. The overall promise behind this change of direction is to put ‘America first’ and deliver better results for US citizens. POLICY CHALLENGE The EU is a relatively open economy and has benefited from the multilateral system. If the US does change from its previous course, the EU should respond with a four-part strategy - (1) Collaborate with partners around the world in defence of the World Trade Organisation; (2) Establish deeper economic relations with China and other partners; in particular, the EU should accelerate discussions on the Bilateral Investment Treaty with China while safeguarding its interests and favouring public courts for dispute settlement; (3) Reform EU trade governance and address internal imbalances, to increase the EU’s external credibility. Moreover, strengthening Europe’s social model would provide a response to protectionist temptations; (4) Prepare tools that could be deployed bilaterally against the US, including WTO-compatible anti-subsidy measures and possible tax measures.
    Date: 2017–02
  30. By: Pekkala Kerr, Sari; Kerr, William; Özden, Çağlar; Parsons, Christopher
    Abstract: This paper reviews recent research regarding high-skilled migration. We adopt a data-driven perspective, bringing together and describing several ongoing research streams that range from the construction of global migration databases, to the legal codification of national policies regarding high-skilled migration, to the analysis of patent data regarding cross-border inventor movements. A common theme throughout this research is the importance of agglomeration economies for explaining high-skilled migration. We highlight some key recent findings and outline major gaps that we hope will be tackled in the near future.
    JEL: F15 F22 J15 J31 J44 L14 L26 O31 O32 O33
    Date: 2017–02–13
  31. By: Freddy Cepeda-López (Banco de la República de Colombia); Fredy Gamboa-Estrada (Banco de la República de Colombia); Carlos León-Rincón (Banco de la República de Colombia); Hernán Rincón-Castro (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007-2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a two-group (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure; gravity models of international trade may explain this evolution. Furthermore, we find that WTN’s connective features do not conform to a linear aggregation of sectorial trade networks. Classification JEL: F10, F14, D85
    Keywords: world trade, network analysis, graph, minimal spanning tree
    Date: 2017–02
  32. By: Egger, Hartmut; Udo, Kreickemeier; Jens, Wrona
    Abstract: We set up a general equilibrium model, in which offshoring to a low-income country can lead to job polarisation in the high-income country, with the number of jobs paying either very high or very low wages increasing, and jobs in the middle of the wage distribution disappearing. The firm population is heterogenous with respect to firm productivity, and rent sharing leads to a positive link between wages and productivity at the firm level. Offshoring involves fixed and task-specific variable costs, and as a consequence it is chosen only by the most productive firms, and only for those tasks carrying the lowest variable offshoring costs. A reduction in those variable costs increases offshoring at the intensive and at the extensive margin, with domestic employment shifted from the newly offshoring firms in the middle of the productivity distribution to firms at the tails of this distribution, paying either very low or very high wages.
    JEL: F12 F16 F23
    Date: 2016
  33. By: Céline CARRERE (University of Geneva); Marco FUGAZZA (FERDI); Marcelo OLARREAGA (FERDI); Frédéric ROBERT-NICOUD (FERDI)
    Abstract: We embed a model of the labor market with sector-specific search-and-matching frictions into a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods to show that trade reduces unemployment in countries with comparative advantage in sectors with more efficient labor markets and leads to higher unemployment in countries with comparative advantage in sectors with less efficient labor markets. We test this prediction in a panel dataset of 107 countries during the period 1995-2009 and find that the data supports the theoretical prediction. Our results also help reconciliate the apparently contradicting evidence in the empirical literature on the impact of trade on unemployment.
    Keywords: Trade, Search unemployment
    Date: 2016–12
  34. By: Marcelo OLARREAGA (FERDI)
    Abstract: We survey the literature on trade and development with a particular emphasis on the role of complementarities associated with trade infrastructure. The empirical literature shows that on average trade causes growth, but the relationship is far from being homogeneous across countries. Initial conditions matter. We focus on the role played by infrastructure. While the empirical literature shows that investment in soft and hard infrastructure have an unambiguously positive impact on trade flows, the theoretical literature argues that priority may be given to investments in domestic rather than international infrastructure in countries with relatively poor domestic infrastructure (Martin and Rogers, 1995). We found that the data supports this prediction.Keywords: Trade, Infrastructure, Development
    JEL: F10 O19 O47
    Date: 2016–12
  35. By: Kincses, Áron; Bálint, Lajos
    Abstract: Looking at the relationship between the place of birth and current residential locations of foreign citizens arriving in Hungary from the neighbouring countries, in general, we establish that smaller migration distance involves migrants with a lower level of education, while preference for longer distances is determined by higher qualifications of migrants. The potential impact area of migrants grows in line with the education attainments of migrants. A scale-free settlement topology can be seen from the neighbouring countries of immigration to Hungary. This means that most of the settlements of Hungary have just a few links to settlements of neighbouring countries, from a migration point of view, while few Hungarian settlements have many connections. This finding also means that, instead of the national migration strategy, the subsidiary and the regional strategies can play a decisive role in the management of the international migration process
    Keywords: international migration Carpathian Basin network analysis
    JEL: F50 J61 R12
    Date: 2017–02
  36. By: Ritzen, Jo (IZA and Maastricht University); Kahanec, Martin (Central European University); Haas, Jasmina (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: The free movement of people and of workers (intra EU mobility) is one of the corner-stones of the EU. It has overwhelmingly benefitted the citizens of the EU member states both in the countries of work and in the countries of origin. Earlier apprehensions on crowding out of less educated workers in the countries of destination and on welfare migration turned out to be by and large refuted. At the same time, EU mobility policies still need a significant deepening and upgrading, to deal with special cases of crowding out in subsectors and with fraudulent contracts. Full integration of some groups of mobile EU workers is difficult because of linguistic and cultural barriers. There is a new challenge for EU policy: integration of circular mobile migrants. EU countries should be guided by the EU to cut red tape and harmonize administration.
    Keywords: EU enlargement, free movement of workers, labor mobility, migration policy, European Single Market, labor adjustment, stabilization, vibrant Europe
    JEL: J15 J61 J68
    Date: 2017–02
  37. By: Genicot, Garance (Georgetown University); Mayda, Anna Maria (Georgetown University); Mendola, Mariapia (University of Milan Bicocca)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of internal migration on child labor outcomes in Brazil. We develop a theoretical model and evaluate it on children aged 10 to 14 using two decades of Census data. In our model, migration impacts child labor through changes in the local labor market, which is made up of both adults and children. Thus we complement the individual-level child-labor analysis with an empirical study of the labor-market impact of internal migration within Brazil. We exploit variation in the concentration of both skilled and unskilled immigrants at the municipality level and employ an instrumental variable strategy that relies on the historical (1980) distribution of immigrants within the country. Our results show that internal migration of a given skill level has a negative impact on corresponding adults' labor market outcomes. We also find that unskilled (skilled) immigration has a negative (positive) and significant impact on child labor. Finally, unskilled immigration increases children school attendance and decreases their likelihood of being idle.
    Keywords: child labor, migration
    JEL: F22 J61 O12
    Date: 2016–12
  38. By: David Gaukrodger
    Abstract: There is vigorous debate about reforms to address the balance between investor protection and the right to regulate in the over 3000 existing investment treaties. This paper first notes the growing trend to analyse particular treaty rules rather than treaties as a whole and the importance of comparative analysis of balancing under other regimes. It then outlines issues in four areas: (i) the types of regulation potentially at issue in investment treaty claims by covered investors; (ii) the types and levels of investor protection; (iii) the degree of impact of treaties on regulation; and (iv) the processes and institutions that may be involved in balancing interests in investor protection and the right to regulate. While the paper recognises that dispute resolution institutions have a significant impact on the balance and the right to regulate, it focuses primarily on substantive issues in light of other ongoing work on dispute settlement.
    Keywords: bilateral investment treaties, investment treaties, investor protection, policy space, regulatory autonomy, right to regulate
    JEL: F02 F13 F23 F53 F60 H11 H40 K23 K29 K33 K4
    Date: 2017–02–24
  39. By: Richter, Philipp; Schiersch, Alexander
    Abstract: This study analyses whether exporting firms produce less CO2 emission-intensively than non-exporting competitors. It exploits a novel and unique dataset for Germany, a major exporting country. We make use of the particularity that CO2 emissions are directly linked to the type of fuel consumed. This allows us to directly estimate CO2 emission intensity within a production function framework. We show that such an integrated approach solves the issue of omitted variable bias that standard regressions approaches on CO2 emission intensity of firms are exposed to. It furthermore enables us to apply latest econometric techniques from the productivity literature that solve the problem of endogeneity. Our findings suggest a positive relation between export intensity and CO2 productivity—the inverse of emission intensity. This exporter’s environmental premium holds for most of the German manufacturing industries at the two-digit level.
    JEL: F18 D22 L60
    Date: 2016
  40. By: David Gaukrodger
    Abstract: The fair and equitable treatment (FET) provision has leapt to prominence in the last 15 years as the principal ground of liability at issue in many if not most investment treaty arbitration claims. In debates about the impact of investment treaties on the right to regulate, FET is second only to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) as the most-cited provision. This paper examines government action to address the balance between investor protection and the right to regulate by limiting fair and equitable treatment provisions to the minimum standard of treatment under customary international law (MST-FET). The paper reviews the distinction between MST-FET clauses and autonomous FET clauses, and notes growing use of an express MST-FET approach in many regions. NAFTA governments’ views about the nature of the MST-FET standard, how it is identified, and its content are then examined in detail. An initial focus on NAFTA, while limited, is justified due to many singularities in NAFTA, including numerous government interpretations of MST-FET since 1994, their availability to the public and the comparatively higher success rate of NAFTA governments in defending FET claims. The paper concludes with brief comparisons between the government views and the views of ISDS tribunals and commentators.
    Keywords: bilateral investment treaties, customary international law, fair and equitable treatment, investment treaties, investor protection
    JEL: F02 F13 F21 F23 F53 F60 H11 H40 K23 K29 K33 K4
    Date: 2017–02–24
  41. By: Giovanni Marin (University of Urbino 'Carlo Bo', Italy); Francesco Nicolli (IRCrES-CNR, Milano, Italy; University of Ferrara, Italy); Emy Zecca (University of Roma 'La Sapienza')
    Abstract: Using a gravity model for trade, this work analyzes the factors influencing the patterns of international hazardous waste flows, relying on newly available data reported in the E-PRTR (European Pollutant Release and Transfer Registry) for EU-OECD countries over the period 2007 to 2014. Exploiting a consolidated empirical framework (Kellenberg, 2012), we test two empirical hypotheses: firstly, we explicitly assess if, according to the pollution heaven hypothesis (PHH), the relative levels of environmental policies across countries are an important determinant of hazardous waste trade, and secondly, we test if technological specialization, proxied here by a technology-specific patent stock, can be considered as a pull factor capable to influence the patterns of international trade of hazardous waste.
    Keywords: International Trade, Hazardous waste, Gravity model, Environmental policy, Factors endowment
    JEL: F18 F64 O44 Q27 Q56
    Date: 2017–02
  42. By: Chalendard, Cyril
    Abstract: This paper aims to identify some factors that reduce evasion of customs duties in developing countries. Following the recent literature on customs evasion, we proxy customs fraud by discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics. Estimates first show that the more frequently a product is imported, the more customs fraud reduces. We argue that this result is indicative of the fact that customs officers use what they have learned from similar import declarations - use customs' internal information - to better assess the compliance of declarations. Then, we show that relying on an information provider - a pre-shipment inspection company in our case - seems to increase tax enforcement. Results indicate that pre-shipment inspections significantly reduce observed discrepancies in trade statistics. In line with previous studies, we find that the semi-elasticity of evasion increases with the tax rate. Finally, estimates confirm that enforcement is product-varying. Results are robust to various robustness checks.
    Keywords: Development Policy, Economic Development, Governance,
    Date: 2017
  43. By: Stéphanie BRUNELIN (FERDI); Jaime DE MELO (Ferdi); Alberto PORTUGAL-PEREZ (FERDI)
    Abstract: A request for relaxing current Rules of Origin (RoO) under the EU-Jordan FTA have been proposed under a EU/friends of Jordan initiative. This brève reviews RoO requirements under the EU-Jordan FTA and compares them with those under the Jordan-US FTA. It also compares the utilization of preferences under both FTAs that have been in existence for over a decade and fully operative for over five years. Preferential access, while higher for the US, is still substantial for the EU. In 2012, the most recent year for which preference utilization rates can be calculated, preference utilization is systematically higher under the US-Jordan FTA. In the high-preference, labour-intensive apparel sector (with 15%-18% preferential margin for sales in the US market and 11%-12% for sales in the EU markets), utilization of preferences for Jordanian sales in the US market are 99.5%, whereas utilization for sales in the EU market is only 50% (table A2). Similar patterns hold for other sectors and in the case of the EU-Jordan FTA, utilization of preferences in the top 10 sectors with the highest preference margins is low while it is 100% for the corresponding sectors in the Jordan-US FTA (table A5).Three pathways are suggested for simplification of RoO: (i) relaxing the double-transformation rule in apparel (yarn can be sourced from non-members but textiles must be sourced among PanEuroMed members) to a single-transformation-rule allowing for non-originating textiles should contribute to make Jordan attractive for Foreign Direct Investment in apparel to service the EU market; (ii) eliminating RoO requirements for tariff lines with unadjusted preferential margins below 3% —which corresponds to the middle range of estimates of fixed costs, at least for small firms—would also help Jordanian exporters who typically export small volumes to the EU; (iii) implementing a low uniform across-the-board value content rule perhaps combined with a Change of Tariff Classification (CTC) at the subheading (HS6) or heading (HS4) level. Note: Since this work was completed in March, the EU announced a relaxation of RoO for a twenty-year period allowing for up to 70 percent non-originating material manufactured in SEZs for origin that are manufactured in designated development zones and industrial estates in Jordan including 50 harmonised system non-agricultural chapters. See rdan-eu-relaxed%E2%80%99-rules-origin-de al-goes-effect-10-years
    Date: 2016–10
  44. By: Nir Jaimovich; Henry E. Siu
    Abstract: We study the role of foreign-born workers in the growth of employment in STEM occupations since 1980. Given the importance of employment in these fields for research and innovation, we consider their role in a model featuring endogenous non-routine-biased technical change. We use this model to quantify the impact of high-skilled immigration, and the increasing tendency of such immigrants to work in innovation, on the pace of non-routine-biased technical change, the polarization of employment opportunities, and the evolution of wage inequality since 1980.
    JEL: E0 J0
    Date: 2017–02
  45. By: Joël CARIOLLE (Ferdi); Cyril CHALENDARD (Cerdi - Université d'Auvergne); Anne-Marie GEOURJON (Ferdi); Bertrand LAPORTE (FERDI)
    Abstract: Over the last few years, customs authorities in many developing countries have introduced modern risk management techniques relying on data mining and statistical scoring techniques. By demonstrating that risk analysis in customs may be a valuable tool to facilitate legal trade and combat fraud more effectively, these techniques have helped improving the performance of customs authorities. However, these risk management techniques may prove to be inefficient in a context of moral hazard and low-performance customs administration. One way to address this weakness is to rely on information gained from discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics. The analysis of discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics (or mirror analysis) is increasingly used to identify high-risk import operations and to estimate revenue losses. By comparing data on fraud recorded by the Gabon customs administration with discrepancies in Gabon’s bilateral trade data, this paper highlights the benefits for a customs administration of a joint analysis of fraud records and mirror trade statistics data, the latter being indicative of the fraud remaining to be detected. Such an analysis helps customs to target ex post audits on risky import declarations unadjusted by the frontline customs officer. Finally, we point that analyzing jointly data on fraud records and mirror trade statistics data may be useful to (i) identify imported products for which the fraud remaining to be detected is large and (ii) monitor the performance of customs inspections.
    Keywords: douanes, administration douanière, évasion fiscale, fraude, analyse miroir
    JEL: H26 H83 K42 D73 F13
    Date: 2016–11
  46. By: Marcelo OLARREAGA (FERDI); Stephan SPERLICH (FERDI); Virginie TRACHSEL (FERDI)
    Abstract: We explore the heterogeneity in returns to export promotion across countries using a semi-parametric varying coefficient model. We find that a one percent increase in export promotion budgets generates an increase in export growth between 0.03 and 0.08 percent. Returns in terms of GDP per capita show less heterogeneity and vary from 0.05 to 0.07. Differences in the characteristics of export promotion agencies drive the heterogeneity in returns to export promotion across countries. More importantly, characteristics that may help export growth are not necessarily those that help GDP per capita growth.
    Keywords: Impact evaluation, export promotion
    JEL: F13 C14
    Date: 2017–02
  47. By: Luis Fernandez; Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago
    Abstract: Systems of interconnected elements are increasingly important in economic applications. This paper elaborates on some ideas of network analysis and its application to the study of systems of economic interest. It focuses on the Identification of influential and vulnerable elements, from both a global and a local perspective.
    Keywords: Banks , Global , Sectors and Industries Analysis , Working Paper
    JEL: C65
    Date: 2017–02
  48. By: Hille, Erik
    Abstract: Can FDI help to reduce air pollution emissions in Korea? Given the proclamation of a far reaching national green growth strategy that requires a shift in both public and private investments, this paper addresses the need for empirical estimates on the environmental consequences of FDI inflows into Korea. Using a simultaneous equations model the impacts of FDI inflows are decomposed into direct as well as indirect scale, composition, and technique effects. Thereby, the analysis utilizes panel data on six air pollutants in 16 Korean provinces and self-governing cities for the time period 2000 to 2011. The estimation results show that FDI inflows concurrently stimulate regional economic growth and reduce air pollution intensities. However, the total level of air pollution emissions mostly remains unchanged. Given Korea’s high level of development, foreign investments are, therefore, regarded as one potential pillar to achieve the goals of the green growth strategy.
    JEL: Q53 O44 F21
    Date: 2016
  49. By: Kahanec, Martin (Central European University); Guzi, Martin (Masaryk University)
    Abstract: The economic literature starting with Borjas (2001) suggests that immigrants are more flexible than natives in responding to changing sectoral, occupational, and spatial shortages in the labor market. In this paper, we study the relative responsiveness to labor shortages by immigrants from various origins, skills and tenure in the country vis-à-vis the natives, and how it varied over the business cycle during the Great Recession. We show that immigrants in general have responded to changing labor shortages across EU member states, occupations and sectors more fluidly than natives. This effect is especially significant for low-skilled immigrants from the new member states or with the medium number of years since immigration, as well as with high-skilled immigrants with relatively few (1-5) or many (11+) years since migration. The relative responsiveness of some immigrant groups declined during the crisis years (those from Europe outside the EU or with eleven or more years since migration), whereas other groups of immigrants became particularly fluid during the Great Recession, such as those from new member states. Our results suggest immigrants may play an important role in labor adjustment during times of asymmetric economic shocks, and support the case for well-designed immigration policy and free movement of workers within the EU. Paper provides new insights into the functioning of the European Single Market and the roles various immigrant groups play for its stabilization through labor adjustment during times of uneven economic development across sectors, occupations, and countries.
    Keywords: immigrant worker, labor supply, skilled migration, labor shortage, wage regression, Great Recession
    JEL: J24 J61 J68
    Date: 2016–12

This nep-int issue is ©2017 by Luca Salvatici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.