|
on International Trade |
| By: | Kamil Galuscak; Ivan Sutoris |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extensive and intensive margins of trade of Czech firms in periods before, during and after the crisis of 2008-2009. The intensive margin explains most of the aggregate export growth in 2006-2014, which corroborates previous findings for other countries. The contribution of the extensive margin is smaller, explaining on average 39% of the aggregate export growth in 2006-2007 and around 25% to 30% of that in the post-crisis period. The lower contribution of the extensive margin may signal a lower rate of convergence of the Czech economy. The results indicate that the crisis had a more severe impact on small exporting firms and that exports to countries outside the EU gained more prominence in the post-crisis years. Our results are similar to findings from previous studies on the impact of participation in global value chains on firms' trade. Specifically, a more negative impact of the crisis was observed for exports with higher import intensity. Overall, our results point to the importance of using disaggregated data in the analysis of countries' export performance. |
| Keywords: | Exports, firms' heterogeneity, global crisis, intensive and extensive margins, production chains |
| JEL: | F02 F20 G01 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2016/12&r=int |
| By: | Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | Recently a number of large-scale uncertainties have emerged as threats to the development of regional integration. Most notably, the UK has decided to leave the EU, and the new US president has stated that he will withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This paper presents a quantitative comparison of the economic impact of a number of alternative regional trade agreement (RTA) scenarios. The impacts were estimated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade. It is estimated that the US will no longer gain, and may even lose, if it withdraws from TPP. The benefits of the bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan will be smaller than those of TPP. Higher tariffs on US imports from China and Mexico will lead to significant deterioration of the economic welfare of not only China and Mexico but also the US. Furthermore, China fs benefit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may be relatively limited depending on the levels of the agreement and weighed against the adverse impacts of the possible US tariffs. The UK economy will suffer as a result of BREXIT, but the cost of BREXIT could be smaller than the possible benefits of joining TPP. All in all, it has been shown that income gains resulting from non-tariff measures (NTMs) reductions are much larger than those arising from tariff removals. Global best efforts are required to achieve larger scale RTAs and the resulting predictably larger economic benefits. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:16-27&r=int |
| By: | Gregory Shaffer; L. Alan Winters |
| Abstract: | There is a serious imbalance between the sclerosis of the political system of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the automatic adoption of WTO Appellate Body judicial reports. The question is whether the WTO Appellate Body will recognize bilateral political agreements (such as under Free Trade Agreements, FTAs) that modify WTO obligations between two parties. In addressing this question, the Appellate Body decision in Peru-Additional Duty on Imports of Certain Agricultural Products is important. The decision addressed the availability of defenses under FTAs in WTO disputes, as well as under public international law generally. After critically assessing the decision, we set forth a series of judicial and political choices for addressing the interaction of WTO and FTA rules going forward. In particular, we contend that clear modifications of WTO commitments under an FTA should be recognized by WTO panels as a defense, but subject to the FTA itself complying with WTO requirements under GATT Article XXIV. The case is important not only for trade specialists, but generally for policymakers and scholars of global governance in a world of fragmented international treaties. |
| Keywords: | WTO, FTAs, variable levies, fragmentation |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/65&r=int |
| By: | Kamal Saggi; Mark Wu |
| Abstract: | Trade in agricultural products raises sensitivities, particularly when imports originate from a trading partner experiencing an outbreak of some type of agricultural disease. In this article, we explain why despite the negative externalities associated with diseased imports, an importing country is generally not permitted to ban such imports outright under WTO law. Rather, it is allowed to do so only under fairly specific circumstances. We also highlight how the recent India – Agricultural Products ruling contributes to the jurisprudence of two issues concerning the SPS Agreement: the interpretation of international standards, and the relationship between the risk assessment and scientific evidence requirements. |
| Keywords: | WTO, agricultural trade, bird flu, avian influenza, SPS Agreement |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/64&r=int |
| By: | Juan de Lucio (UNIVERSIDAD NEBRIJA); Raúl Mínguez (UNIVERSIDAD NEBRIJA); Asier Minondo (DEUSTO BUSINESS SCHOOL); Francisco Requena (UNIVERSITY OF VALENCIA) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses transaction-level trade data to analyse the differences in export prices across and within Spanish manufacturing firms in the year 2014. The transactional nature of the database uncovers sizable differences in the price that an exporter charges for the same product and destination. These differences are related to the number of goods covered within each product category, volume discounts and vertically differentiated varieties. Export prices are positively correlated with firms’ productivity, destination markets’ GDP per capita and distance to Spain. These latter results suggest that Spanish exporters compete in quality. |
| Keywords: | export prices, firm-level transaction data, heterogeneous firms, quality, Spain |
| JEL: | F1 F10 F23 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1634&r=int |
| By: | Keith E. Maskus; William Ridley |
| Abstract: | We study the role of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) with complex chapters covering intellectual property rights (IPRs) in determining the magnitude and composition of countries’ trade. Changes in the global IPRs environment have increasingly been negotiated within the terms of PTAs. Despite the proliferation of PTAs with strong IPRs standards, little attention has been paid to their effects on the trade of member countries. Using a carefully designed empirical framework, we find that PTAs, where one partner is either the United States, the European Union, or the European Free Trade Assocation, with rigorous IPRs chapters have significant impacts on members’ aggregate trade. The results are further broken down by income groups and the composition of sectoral trade. The findings accord with predicted relationships from previous research on IPRs and trade and suggest that regulatory aspects of trade agreements have important cross-border impacts. This possibility has been little studied to date. |
| Keywords: | China, intellectual property, IPRs, innovation policy, trade agreements |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/35&r=int |
| By: | Durán Lima, José Elías; Cracau, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The entry into force of the Additional Protocol of the Framework Agreement of the Pacific Alliance in May 2016 marked an important step towards the regional integration efforts of its four members: Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. In addition to promoting trade and investment linkages among its members, a core objective of the Pacific Alliance —and what distinguishes it from other regional integration efforts in Latin America— is to serve as a platform for economic and commercial integration between Latin America and Asia-Pacific. It is, therefore, of particular interest to evaluate current economic developments taking part in modern Latin America and their impact upon these integration efforts. The data of bilateral flows of trade in goods at the product and sector level, together with the study of trade in services as well as foreign direct investment, reflect the strong links within the Pacific Alliance. It also reveals the potential to further increase its members’ participation in regional and global value chains. The Additional Protocol will serve not only to immediately eliminate tariffs for nearly 95% of intraregional imports, but also to foster economic integration through cumulation of origin and trade facilitation. The Pacific Alliance faces several challenges in the medium-term. First, it must successfully incorporate Costa Rica as a full member, the first accession since the Pacific Alliance was formed. Further, it must clearly define how to fulfill one of its driving forces: to serve as a bridge between Asian and Latin American countries on both sides of the Pacific. |
| Keywords: | COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL, ACUERDOS ECONOMICOS, INTEGRACION ECONOMICA, INVERSIONES, INVERSION EXTRANJERA DIRECTA, POLITICA COMERCIAL, PRODUCTOS MANUFACTURADOS, INDICADORES ECONOMICOS, ESTADISTICAS COMERCIALES, RELACIONES ECONOMICAS INTERNACIONALES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE POLICY, MANUFACTURES, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, TRADE STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col025:40860&r=int |
| By: | J. Blaum; C. Lelarge; M. Peters |
| Abstract: | Trade in intermediate inputs allows firms to reduce their costs of production and thus benefits consumers through lower prices of domestically produced goods. The extent to which firms participate in foreign input markets, however, varies substantially. We develop a methodology to measure how consumer prices are affected by input trade in environments that allow for such heterogeneity in import behavior. We provide a theoretical result that holds in a variety of settings: the firm-level data on value added and domestic expenditure shares in material spending are sufficient to compute changes in consumer prices. Approaches that abstract from firm level heterogeneity and rely on aggregate statistics give biased results. In an application to French data, we find that prices of manufacturing products would be 27% higher in the absence of input trade. |
| Keywords: | Euro area countries, natural rate of interest, common monetary policy, fragmentation |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F14 F62 D21 D22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:612&r=int |
| By: | Eum, Jihyun; Sheldon, Ian |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252435&r=int |
| By: | Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights India’s unique services export led growth path. Observing that Indian business services have helped manufacturers all over the world to become more efficient and productive, it raises the question how Indian business services can do the same for local manufacturers and thus support the Make in India initiative. The paper also explores the potential for broadening the export base in services. The services sector that appears to have the largest prospect for unleashing the potential of both manufacturing and knowledge intensive business services is the telecommunications sector, particularly broadband internet services. In addition reforms in the distribution sector that enable multi-channel wholesale and retailing could facilitate the development of marketing channels for SME manufacturers both across the vast Indian market and abroad. Reforms in the logistics sector would further improve the competitiveness of local manufacturers producing time-sensitive goods including inputs to global value chains. Finally, competitiveness in knowledge-intensive services is obtained through knowledge sharing across borders. A prerequisite for broadening the export base in these sectors is openness to foreign professionals. The set of proposed recommendations emerging from this analysis underlines the importance of streamlining sector-level regulatory frameworks in all sectors to encourage foreign entry and competition, and the role that cross-cutting improvements in the trade and business environment would play to render services providers as well as down-stream manufacturers more competitive. |
| Keywords: | competitveness, services trade restrictions, trade in manufacturing, trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F60 L80 O53 |
| Date: | 2017–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:196-en&r=int |
| By: | Rui Mano |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Spillovers;China;Demand;Consumption;Economic sectors;International trade;Trade models;Transition economies;Spillovers, China rebalancing, trade channel, sectoral trade |
| Date: | 2016–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/219&r=int |
| By: | Andrea Ariu; Florian Mayneris; Mathieu Parenti |
| Abstract: | Goods and services have been generally analyzed as two different items in the consumer portfolio supplied by firms in separate industries. In this paper, we challenge this view by providing evidence on interactions within the firm between foreign sales of goods and services. We show empirically and theoretically that demand complementarities between both activities enable firms that export goods and services - we call them bi-exporters - to boost their manufacturing exports by also providing services. The provision of services thus participates to the perceived vertical differentiation of the goods. Under monopolistic competition, adding a service boosts firms' sales only through quantities. Accounting for large oligopolistic firms uncovers instead a different channel: bi-exporting may increase firms' market power that translates into higher prices. Our IV estimates show the price channel to be important. These results imply that ignoring such complementarities will lead to a mis-quantification of the welfare and business consequences of economic integration. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains; Service and Goods Trade |
| JEL: | F10 F14 L80 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/243160&r=int |
| By: | Mutreja, Piyusha (Syracuse University); Ravikumar, B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Sposi, Michael J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | International trade in capital goods has quantitatively important effects on economic development through two channels: capital formation and aggregate TFP. We embed a multi country, multi sector Ricardian model of trade into a neoclassical growth framework. Our model matches several trade and development facts within a unified framework: the world distribution of capital goods production and trade, cross-country differences in investment rate and price of final goods, and cross-country equalization of price of capital goods. Reducing barriers to trade capital goods allows poor countries to access more efficient means of capital goods production abroad, leading to relatively higher capital output ratios. Meanwhile, poor countries can specialize more in their comparative advantage—non-capital goods production—and increase their TFP. The income gap between rich and poor countries declines by 40 percent by eliminating barriers to trade capital goods. |
| JEL: | E22 F11 O11 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:294&r=int |
| By: | Schminke, Annette; Van Biesebroeck, Johannes |
| Abstract: | For small open economies, it is essential that many firms find their way to the export market and most governments provide some form of export promotion assistance. We use detailed firm-level data for Flanders, the largest region in Belgium, to evaluate whether its program raises firms' propensity to start exporting outside the EU single market. We find robust evidence for such an effect by relying on the selection-on-observables assumption which we implement using various estimators. Results remain positive and statistically significant, but are smaller in size, when we use two strategies to mitigate self-selection concerns: (i) focus on sub-samples of firms where endogenous selection into treatment is less likely, and (ii) use firms that receive the weakest form of support as controls for firms receiving more extensive support. |
| Keywords: | export market entry; International Trade; trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11776&r=int |
| By: | Anirudh Shingal |
| Abstract: | Existing work examining the trade effect of colonial legacy does not consider services trade or the impact on LDCs. We bridge this gap by providing evidence from the Commonwealth and Francophonie countries assembling a larger, more recent panel (241 countries, over 1995-2010). Commonwealth membership is found to increase services exports by 56.2% in our baseline estimates while being a Francophonie country is associated with four times more trade; both effects are significantly larger than the corresponding goods trade effects. Descriptive statistics reveal the growing reliance of small, low-income former colonies on the respective “colonial groups”. Corroborating this, we find much larger (than average) services trade effects for ex-colonies characterized as LDCs, a significant finding given the links between market access and development. Our results are robust to accounting for China and to Brexit (for the Commonwealth). |
| Keywords: | Colonies, services trade, LDCs, Commonwealth, Francophonie |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/70&r=int |
| By: | G. Rossini |
| Abstract: | A hot issue in trade negotiations concerns the existence of stateowned firms and state subsidies. Disputes between the US and the EU and the issue of the recognition of the status of a market economy to China are often the epitome of that. In Germany the giant Volkswagen is state controlled, in China almost 1/3 of firms are state controlled and loom in almost all industries often with relevant or even dominant market shares. State enterprises maximize home social welfare. When they export or compete with foreign producers at home their specific objective function make them a useful vehicle for disguised trade policies. We investigate trade cases with oligopoly and state or quasi state owned firms. Increasing returns to scale come into the picture in some instances. Dumping and foreclosure of the domestic market emerge explaining both the possibility of having home prices higher or lower than export prices. Possible counteracting policies can be devised and an example of a production subsidy is presented. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 L32 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1093&r=int |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta |
| Abstract: | We employ interactive quantile regressions to assess conditional linkages between foreign aid, iron ore exports and terrorism from a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. The following main findings are established. First, it is primarily in the countries with the highest level of iron ore exports that terrorism affects exports. Second, bilateral aid has an impact on iron ore exports, while the evidence for such a relationship between multilateral aid and iron ore exports is limited. Third, there is limited support for the main hypothesis motivating this line of inquiry, notably that foreign aid can be used to mitigate a potentially negative effect of terrorism on resource exports. The results suggest that bilateral aid is more relevant at mitigating the negative effects of domestic and total terrorism on iron ore exports. |
| Keywords: | Exports, Foreign Aid; Terrorism; Natural Resources; Development |
| JEL: | F23 F35 F40 O40 Q34 |
| Date: | 2016–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76119&r=int |
| By: | James Nyarkoh, Bright |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the effect of trade liberalisation on poverty incidence for Ghana for the period 1960-2013. The estimation methods are the Johansen test, Vector Error Correction (VECM) test, and the Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The findings of the study suggest that poverty incidence is negatively related to trade liberalisation in the long-run and short-run. The implication of the finding is that poverty incidence is reducing with trade liberalisation. Future studies should consider the current topic in a multivariate modelling. |
| Keywords: | Poverty incidence, trade liberalisation, economic growth |
| JEL: | F14 I30 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2017–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76209&r=int |
| By: | Dauth, Wolfgang; Findeisen, Sebastian; Südekum, Jens |
| Abstract: | The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment. But this decline is much sharper in import-competing than in export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:242&r=int |
| By: | Zhu, Manhong |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252430&r=int |
| By: | Rueda-Cantuche, José (JRC); Kerner, Riina (Eurostat); Cernat, Lucian (DG Trade); Ritola, Veijo (Eurostat) |
| Abstract: | Services account for an overwhelming share of overall economic activities and are increasingly delivered across borders under various modes of supply. Given their growing importance for trade negotiators, the availability of statistics on the international supply of services detailed by services category, mode of supply and partner country is critically important for services trade policy making. Based on a recent Eurostat project, this paper presents the first estimates for EU trade in services by modes of supply and explores possible avenues to build a global services dataset by modes of supply, building on the latest European initiatives in this area. |
| Keywords: | Modes of Supply; Trade; Services; General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2016–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2016_003&r=int |
| By: | Kahanec, Martin (UNU-MERIT, Central European University, and IZA, Bonn); Pytlikova, Mariola (CERGE‐EI, Prague, and VSB‐Technical University, Ostrava) |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the literature on destination-country consequences of international migration with investigations on the effects of immigration from new EU member states and Eastern Partnership countries on the economies of old EU member states over the years 1995-2010. Using a rich international migration dataset and an empirical model accounting for the endogeneity of migration flows we find positive and significant effects of post-enlargement migration flows from new EU member states on old member states' GDP, GDP per capita, and employment rate and a negative effect on output per worker. We also find small, but statistically significant negative effects of migration from Eastern Partnership countries on receiving countries' GDP, GDP per capita, employment rate, and capital stock, but a positive significant effect on capital-to-labour ratio. These results mark an economic success of the EU enlargements and EU's free movement of workers. |
| Keywords: | EU enlargement, free mobility of workers, migration impacts, European Single Market, east-west migration, Eastern Partnership |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2017001&r=int |
| By: | Efobi, Uchenna; Asongu, Simplice; Okafor, Chinelo; Tchamyou, Vanessa; Tanankem, Belmondo |
| Abstract: | The paper assesses how remittances directly and indirectly affect industrialisation in a panel of 49 African countries for the period 1980-2014. The indirect impact is assessed through financial development channels. The empirical evidence is based on three interactive and non-interactive simultaneity-robust estimation techniques, namely: (i) Instrumental Fixed Effects (FE) to control for the unobserved heterogeneity; (ii) Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) to control for persistence in industrialisation and (iii) Instrumental Quantile Regressions (QR) to account for initial levels of industrialisation. The non-interactive specification elucidates direct effects of remittances on industrialisation whereas interactive specifications explain indirect impacts. The findings broadly show that for certain initial levels of industrialisation, remittances can drive industrialisation through the financial development mechanism. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Financial development; Industrialisation; Remittances |
| JEL: | F24 F43 F63 G20 O55 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76121&r=int |
| By: | Brink, Lars; Orden, David |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252422&r=int |
| By: | Brink, Lars |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252423&r=int |
| By: | Makram Khalil (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | to be added soon |
| Keywords: | dynamic factor model, dual Kalman-filter, financial conditions index, credit supply shocks, time varying parameter VAR. |
| JEL: | F21 F36 F41 G11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2017/2&r=int |
| By: | Pekkala Kerr, Sari; Kerr, William; Özden, Çağlar; Parsons, Christopher |
| Abstract: | The global distribution of talent is highly skewed and the resources available to countries to develop and utilize their best and brightest vary substantially. The migration of skilled workers across countries tilts the deck even further. Using newly available data, we first review the landscape of global talent mobility, which is both asymmetric and rising in importance. We next consider the determinants of global talent flows at the individual and firm levels and sketch some important implications. Third, we review the national gatekeepers for skilled migration and broad differences in approaches used to select migrants for admission. Looking forward, the capacity of people, firms, and countries to successfully navigate this tangled web of global talent will be critical to their success. |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J15 J31 J44 L14 L26 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_002&r=int |
| By: | C.S. Mastinu; M. Del Gatto |
| Abstract: | We study how the probability of engaging in mergers and acquisitions is related to geographical and cultural distance, and to a combination of distance and experience, referred to as sequentiality (i.e., number of past mergers and acquisitions in the target country and in countries that are, either geographically or culturally, “contiguous” to the acquisition and/or the target country). We start by showing that aggregate flows of mergers and acquisitions are first directed toward culturally similar, larger, richer, more developed, and less risky countries, in spite of higher unit labor costs. Thereafter, the number of mergers and acquisitions in each country continues to be driven by cultural distance, notwithstanding high tax rates and low trade openness. Geographical distance is unimportant in both steps. We then find strong evidence of sequentiality effects related to cultural but not geographical (sharing a common border) contiguity. While the cultural effects tend to disappear at the level of second-order contiguity (being contiguous to the acquisition country’s contiguous countries but not to the acquisition country), a geographical pattern seems to emerge only when second-order contiguity is addressed. |
| Keywords: | Experience,cultural distance,spatial contiguity,M&A,FDI |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201616&r=int |
| By: | Wang, Ping; Wilson, Norbert; Tran, Nhuong; Dao, Danh; Chan, Chin Yee |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252434&r=int |
| By: | Ivo J. Leke (Heverlee, Belgium); Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to dispel some myths associated with migrants in order to improve socio-economic appraisal of the consequences of the recent surge of migrants into Europe. We argue that: (i) the concern about loss of Christian cultural values is lacking in substance because compared to a relatively near historical epoch or era, very few European citizens do go to Church in contemporary Europe; (ii) the threat to European liberal institutions is falsifiable and statistically fragile because it is not substantiated with significant evidence; (iii) the insignificant proportion of the Moslem population that is aligned with Islamic fundamentalism invalidates the hypothesis on importation of radical Islamic fundamentalism and (iv) the concern about social security burden is relevant only in the short-term because of Europe’s ageing population. |
| Keywords: | Migration; the European Union; Development |
| JEL: | F20 J61 J83 K31 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:16/053&r=int |
| By: | Durán Lima, José Elías; Alvarez, Mariano; Cracau, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This manual systematizes the basics of a set of methodologies, analytical variables and indicators for a better understanding of international trade dynamics. For the systematic development of that document, the first part includes basic knowledge like definitions of proportions, percentages, annual growth rates, and structural analysis. Based upon that, the second part introduces more comprehensive concepts for a profound analysis of trade. Furthermore, concepts of tariff and nontariff protection, the link between production and trade as well as the main classifications of international trade and their different analytical uses are discussed in detail. The manual focuses on providing the largest number of possible indicators for a better understanding of a country’s trade pattern and its trade dynamics, taking into account the different types of firms and sectors involved in international trade. |
| Keywords: | COMERCIO EXTERIOR, MANUALES, POLITICA COMERCIAL, COMERCIO DE SERVICIOS, PRODUCCION, PREFERENCIAS ARANCELARIAS, CLASIFICACIONES ESTADISTICAS, COMERCIO INTRARREGIONAL, ESTADISTICAS COMERCIALES, FOREIGN TRADE, MANUALS, TRADE POLICY, TRADE IN SERVICES, PRODUCTION, TARIFF PREFERENCES, STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATIONS, INTRAREGIONAL TRADE, TRADE STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:40864&r=int |
| By: | Johannesson, Louise (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Mavroidis, Petros C. (Columbia Law School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide some descriptive statistics of the first twenty years of the WTO (World Trade Organization) dispute settlement. The database used in this paper was assembled by the authors and has been publicly available (http://globalgovernanceprogramme.eui.eu/wto-case-law-project/). The statistical information that we present here is divided into three thematic units: the statutory and de facto duration of each stage of the process, paying particular attention to the eventual conclusion of litigation; the identity and participation in the process of the various institutional players, that is, not only complainants and defendants, but also third parties, as well as the WTO judges (panelists and Appellate Body members); and, finally, information regarding the subject-matter of various disputes, regarding the frequency with which claims regarding consistency of measures with the covered agreements (but also, at a more disaggregate level, e.g., specific provisions) have been raised. We call our work “descriptive statistics”, because, in an effort to provide raw material that will help researchers to conduct their research as they see fit, we have consciously refrained from systematically interpreting the data that we have assembled. |
| Keywords: | WTO; Dispute Settlement; Panel; Appellate Body |
| JEL: | K40 |
| Date: | 2017–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1148&r=int |
| By: | Duvaleix-Treguer, Sabine; Emlinger, Charlotte; Gaigne, Carl; Latouche, Karine |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252436&r=int |
| By: | Katharina van Treeck (Georg-August University Göttingen); K.M. Wacker (University of Mainz) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate how de facto financial globalization has influenced the labor share in developing countries. Our main argument is the need to distinguish between different types of capital in this context, as different forms of foreign investment have different fixed costs and impacts on the host countries' production process and vary concerning their bargaining power vis-à-vis labor. Assuming an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor would thus be misleading. Our econometric analysis of the impact of foreign direct vs. portfolio investment in a sample of about 40 developing and transition countries after 1992 supports this claim. Using different panel data techniques to address potential endogeneity problems, we find that FDI has a positive effect on the labor share in developing countries, while the impact of portfolio investment is significantly smaller, and potentially negative. Our results also highlight that de facto foreign investment cannot explain the decline of the labor share in developing countries over the investigated period. |
| Keywords: | Labor Share; Globalization; Income Distribution; International Capital Flows; FDI; Wage Bargaining |
| JEL: | C23 E25 F21 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:219&r=int |
| By: | Kohl, Miriam |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of international trade in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms where a welfare state redistributes income. We look at a very stylised progressive non-distortionary redistribution scheme. We show that for a given tax rate international trade increases income per capita, but also leads to higher income inequality. Two aspects of income inequality are examined. First, inter-group inequality between managers and workers is considered. Second, intra-group inequality within the group of managers is investigated. For a given tax rate the size of the welfare state and therefore the transfer per capita increases when going from autarky to trade. This second-round effect counteracts the primary increase in inequality, yet cannot outweigh it. Since the redistribution scheme is non-distortionary, it is possible to decrease trade-induced inequality by increasing the tax rate without jeopardising the gains from trade. |
| Keywords: | International trade,Income inequality,Redistribution,Heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | D31 F12 F16 H24 H25 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tudcep:0117&r=int |
| By: | Cary Coglianese; André Sapir |
| Abstract: | In a series of recent disputes arising under the TBT Agreement, the Appellate Body has interpreted Article 2.1 to provide that discriminatory and trade-distortive regulation could be permissible if based upon a “legitimate regulatory distinction.” In its recent compliance decision in the US-Tuna II dispute, the AB reaffirmed its view that regulatory distinctions embedded in the U.S. dolphin-safe tuna labeling regime were not legitimate because they were not sufficiently calibrated to the risks to dolphins associated with different tuna fishing conditions. This paper analyzes the AB’s application of the notion of risk-based regulation in the US-Tuna II dispute and finds the AB’s reasoning lacking in coherence. Although risk analysis and calibration can in principle play useful roles in TBT cases, the AB needs to provide more explicit and careful guidance to WTO members and to panels to avoid the kind of ad hoc decision-making exhibited throughout the US-Tuna II dispute. |
| Keywords: | WTO, TBT, regulation, risk |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/66&r=int |
| By: | Xie, Chaoping; Grant, Jason |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252433&r=int |
| By: | Chad P. Bown; Rachel Brewster |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Article 22.6 arbitration report of the WTO dispute over the United States’ country of original labeling (US-COOL) regulation for meat products. At prior phases of the legal process, a WTO Panel and the Appellate Body had sided with Canada and Mexico by finding that the US regulation had negatively affected their exports of livestock – cattle and hogs – to the US market. The arbitrators authorized Canada and Mexico to retaliate by over $1 billion against US exports; this is the second largest authorized retaliation on record and only the twelfth WTO dispute to reach the stage of an arbitration report. Our legal-economic analysis focuses on a number of issues that arise in the arbitration report. First, the complainants requested the arbitrators consider a new formula for computing the permissible retaliation limit that would also include the effects of domestic price suppression. We provide a simple, economics-based model explanation for the arbitrators’ rejection of such a proposal. Second, we provide market context for the $1 billion finding. While the arbitrators relied on the “trade effects” formula – which sets the retaliation limit as equivalent to the perceived loss of export revenue resulting from the WTO violation – we argue this amount to be implausibly large, given the actual conditions in the US market for cattle and hogs during this period. We then describe a number of the challenges facing arbitrators as they construct such estimates, including those likely to have arisen in this particular dispute. |
| Keywords: | WTO, dispute, arbitration, retaliation, regulation, nontariff barrier, remedies |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/68&r=int |
| By: | Orrenius, Pia M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Zavodny, Madeline (Agnes Scott College) |
| Abstract: | The U.S. economy has long relied on immigrant workers, many of them unauthorized, yet estimates of the inflow of unauthorized workers and the determinants of that inflow are hard to come by. This paper provides estimates of the number of newly arriving unauthorized workers from Mexico, the principal source of unauthorized immigrants to the United States, and examines how the inflow is related to U.S. and Mexico economic conditions. Our estimates suggest that annual inflows of unauthorized workers averaged about 170,000 during 1996-2014 but were much higher before the economic downturn that began in 2007. Labor market conditions in the U.S. and Mexico play key roles in this migrant flow. The models estimated here predict that annual unauthorized inflows from Mexico will be about 100,000 in the future if recent economic conditions persist, and higher if the U.S. economy booms or the Mexican economy weakens. |
| Keywords: | Unauthorized immigrants; Illegal immigrants; Temporary foreign workers |
| Date: | 2017–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1701&r=int |
| By: | Mukherjee, Rudrarup |
| Abstract: | In a small open developing country context, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium framework and tries to find out the effects of foreign capital inflow on welfare of the country. Comparative-static results show that foreign capital inflow widens the skilled-unskilled wage gap under some reasonable conditions, although it causes an expansion of the foreign enclave and the agricultural sector and contraction of the domestic manufacturing sector. Taking sector specific foreign capital, the author finds that foreign direct investment is beneficial in a small open economy in the absence of tariffs. |
| Keywords: | foreign capital,small open economy,welfare,tariff,economic development |
| JEL: | D50 D60 F4 F63 O11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:20171&r=int |
| By: | hayat, arshad |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a threshold regression model and split the sample into groups of low-natural resource and high-natural resource groups. This paper used data from 70 countries for the period 1996-2015 and found evidence that FDI has a positive impact on economic growth of the host country if the host country’s natural resource sector is below the threshold. However, FDI inflow doesn’t have any significant impact on growth in countries with natural resource sector larger than the threshold. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Economic Growth, Natural Resources, Threshold Model |
| JEL: | O47 P28 P45 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76205&r=int |
| By: | Yoon, Jongyeol; Brown, Scott |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252428&r=int |
| By: | Kubo, Koji |
| Abstract: | Myanmar's trade with China is heavily concentrated in cross-border trade through the Yunnan province of China. In this qualitative analysis, we examine factors that yield such a concentration from the viewpoint that trade would be concentrated in the channel where transaction costs are relatively low compared with those in other channels. It is almost certain that weak law enforcement at the border gives rise to informal cross-border trade, which allows traders to save the time and costs for compliance with formal procedures. Apart from informality, unique institutional arrangements have been emerging spontaneously in the border area that can reduce transaction costs in a way compatible with formal trade, thus augmenting cross-border trade. Based on observations of thriving trade at Myanmar's border with China, we draw implications for the country's general trade facilitation measures. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Informal sector, Myanmar, Cross-border trade, Informal trade, Transaction costs of trade |
| JEL: | F19 O17 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper625&r=int |
| By: | Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David |
| Keywords: | Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), Regional trade, United States, European Union 28, Global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Tariffs, Non-tariff measures (NTM), Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, C68, D58, F15, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252425&r=int |
| By: | D'Agostino, Antonello; Modugno, Michele; Osbat, Chiara |
| Abstract: | We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latter being released in a more timely manner. Second, the model tracks well the dynamics of trade variables conditional on the path of macroeconomic variables during the great recession; this result makes our model a reliable tool for scenario analysis. JEL Classification: F17, F47, C38 |
| Keywords: | conditional forecast, euro area, factor models, news, now-cast, trade |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161986&r=int |
| By: | Cororaton, Caesar B.; Orden, David |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252424&r=int |
| By: | Bulatov, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | The selected paper presented at the IAMO Samarkand Conference |
| Keywords: | International Development, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamc16:250068&r=int |
| By: | Zafari, Khurshid; Ismailov, Azamat |
| Abstract: | The selected paper presented at the IAMO Samarkand Conference |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamc16:250075&r=int |
| By: | Jacob A. Jordaan; Vassilis Monastiriotis |
| Keywords: | FDI; agglomeration; regional externalities; spatial heterogeneity; Greece |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68816&r=int |
| By: | Bakari, Sayef |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between export, import, domestic investment and economic growth in Japan. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the period between 1970 and 2015 was tested by using Correlation analysis and regression analysis. The result of the Correlation analysis shows that all variables are positively correlated. According to the results of the regression analysis estimation, domestic investment and exports are significant in explaining the economic growth, namely an increase in domestic exports and investment leads to an increase in economic growth. On the other hand, import has no effect on gross domestic product. These results provide evidence that exports and domestic investment, thus, are seen as the source of economic growth in Japan. |
| Keywords: | Domestic Investment, export, import, economic growth, Japan. |
| JEL: | E2 E22 F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76110&r=int |
| By: | S. Guilloux-Nefussi |
| Abstract: | The sensitivity of inflation to domestic slack has declined in developed countries since the mid-1980s. This article shows why this might result from globalization favoring concentration. To do so, I add three ingredients to an otherwise standard general equilibrium two-country new-Keynesian model. (1) Strategic interactions generate a time-varying desired markup; (2) endogenous entry and (3) heterogeneous productivity engender a self-selection of the most productive firms (which are also the largest ones) in international trade. Hence, the weight of large firms in domestic production increases in response to a fall in international trade costs. These large firms transmit less marginal cost fluctuations to price adjustments, rather absorbing them into their desired markup to protect their market share. At the aggregate level, this leads to domestic inflation reacting less to real activity fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Impact of Globalization, Strategic Interactions, Market Structure, Phillips Curve |
| JEL: | E31 F41 F62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:610&r=int |
| By: | Seppey, Frederic |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252469&r=int |
| By: | Matthews, Alan |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252431&r=int |
| By: | Adiiaeva, Chinara; Grings, Michael |
| Abstract: | The selected paper presented at the IAMO Samarkand Conference |
| Keywords: | International Development, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2016–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamc16:250076&r=int |
| By: | Sheldon, Ian |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:252432&r=int |
| By: | Iain Begg |
| Keywords: | Referendum; EU-Mitgliedschaft; Exit-Strategie; Großbritannien; EU-Staaten; Eurozone |
| JEL: | F15 F59 I31 O10 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68861&r=int |
| By: | Paola Conconi; Harm Schepel |
| Abstract: | The dispute Argentina-Measures Affecting the Importation of Goods concerns a series of measures imposed by Argentine authorities on economic operators as a condition for obtaining import licenses. These measures were introduced with the goal of advancing the Argentine government’s stated policies of re-industrialization, import substitution, and elimination of trade balance deficits. From a legal point of view, the least interesting feature of the dispute was the substantive compatibility of these measures with Article XI:1 GATT as they clearly constituted import restrictions. Identifying and classifying the measures involved, however, proved more challenging: based on vague policy guidelines, devoid of any legal basis, and consisting largely of wholly discretionary ad hoc action by the authorities, clouded in confidential obscurity, the measures escaped familiar categories and distinctions of WTO law. From an economic perspective, although Argentina’s measures appear to have had no impact on its overall imports, they imposed large costs on foreign companies, as well as on Argentine importers and consumers. |
| Keywords: | import restrictions, trade balance. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/67&r=int |
| By: | Piotr Gabrielczak (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Tomasz Serwach (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate Erceg, Henderson and Levin’s [2000] sticky price and sticky wage dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model while allowing for wage or price Calvo parameters regime switching and compare this with the constant parameters model. Our results suggest that the model with price and wage rigidity switching is strongly favored by the data. However, we do not find significant evidence in support of independent Markov chains. Moreover, we identify historical periods when price and wage stickiness were low and show that during such periods, the economy reacts more strongly to structural shocks. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone, international trade, Slovenia, complexity, synthetic control method. |
| JEL: | C21 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:3/2017&r=int |
| By: | Busch, Berthold; Diermeier, Matthias; Goecke, Henry; Hüther, Michael |
| Abstract: | Following the British decision to leave the European Union, the question arises as to how relations should be conducted going forward. The objective of the negotiations between Great Britain and the EU is to ensure which strategy is best - both for the British and the EU. Another important element is what long and short-term advantages can be obtained. Here, the authors will examine these questions from a game theoretical perspective. In any case, it is evident that the EU will benefit the most from an uncompromising approach to the negotiations in the long term, whatever the benefits in the short term. |
| JEL: | C72 E65 F13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:182016&r=int |
| By: | Petros C. Mavroidis; Niall Meagher; Thomas J. Prusa and Tatiana Yanguas |
| Abstract: | The World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement process allows a defending Member a “reasonable period of time” (RPT) to implement any findings that its contested measures are inconsistent with WTO law. If agreement on this RPT cannot be reached, Article 21.3(c) of the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU) provides for the possibility of arbitration on the length of the RPT. The DSU provides limited guidelines on the RPT, stating only that it should not normally exceed 15 months. In practice, Arbitrators have developed the standard that the RPT should reflect the shortest possible period under the domestic legal system of the defending Member to make the changes necessary to comply with the WTO rulings. Our research confirms that in practice Arbitrators have determined this period by “splitting the difference” approximately between the periods suggested by the complaining and defending Member. In addition, the process appears to reward defending Members that request an RPT that exceeds the 15-month guideline in Article 21.3(c). |
| Keywords: | WTO, Dispute Settlement, Reasonable Period of Time |
| JEL: | K40 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2016/45&r=int |
| By: | Zhunusova, Eliza |
| Abstract: | The selected paper presented at the IAMO Samarkand Conference |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, International Development, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamc16:250081&r=int |
| By: | Toman Barsbai; Hillel Rapoport; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the aftermath of the Russian crisis of 1998 strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia. |
| Keywords: | Emigration;Political institutions;Elections;Social networks;Information transmission;Cultural diffusion |
| JEL: | F22 D72 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-26&r=int |