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on International Trade |
| By: | Varma, Anil |
| Abstract: | The general objective of the present paper is to review the provisions in India-ASEAN FTA and merchandise exports and imports between both parties. This is expected to provide deeper insight in to the research questions about the structural transformation in exports and imports of India and ASEAN especially after the formation of ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement. The present paper is also expected to provide an analysis about the direction of India’s trade with ASEAN. The study finds that almost all ASEAN countries use the FTA route to engage trade with India. Indian export baskets have not undergone changes even after the formation of the ASEAN –India FTA, but the import baskets have undergone a structural transformation during 2000-2014 period. Also imports grew faster than exports during the period of analysis. Major destinations of India’s exports are Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam while major sources of imports are Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Many of these countries enjoy greater productivity in agricultural sector as their farm production is incorporated in more capitalist production mode. The study finds that the lists are not prepared with scientific impact assessment techniques, where the non farming community largely represented by the organisation in this field during the trade negotiations will help them to put their commodities in the lists to which they are preference towards. |
| Keywords: | Free trade agreements, Tariff, exports, imports. |
| JEL: | F1 F15 |
| Date: | 2015–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75035&r=int |
| By: | Zhao, Liqui (Renmin University); Wang, Fei (Renmin University); Zhao, Zhong (UNU-MERIT, IZA Bonn, and Renmin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a quasi-natural experiment-the U.S. granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to China after China's accession to the World Trade Organization-to examine whether trade liberalisation affects the incidence of child labour in China. PNTR permanently set U.S. duties on Chinese imports at low Normal Trade Relations (NTR) levels and removed the uncertainty associated with annual renewals of China's NTR status. We find that the PNTR was significantly associated with the rising incidence of child labour in China. A one percentage point decrease in average export tariffs raises the odds of child labour by a 1.3 percentage point. The effects are greater for girls, older children, rural children, and children with less-educated parents. The effect of trade liberalisation on the incidence of child labour, however, disappears in the long run, because trade liberalisation can induce exporters to upgrade technology and thus have less demand for unskilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Child labour, Trade liberalisation, Trade policy uncertainty, Difference-in-differences, China |
| JEL: | F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2016–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016054&r=int |
| By: | Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Kimura, Fukunari; Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut |
| Abstract: | Using highly detailed import data for Thailand, this paper examines firm-level trade creation and diversion of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Specifically, by focusing on firm-product pairs in which firms import a particular product from non-members but not from RTA members in the initial year of our sample, we empirically investigate the start of imports from RTA members under RTA schemes and the cessation of imports from non-members at the firm-level. We find that firms are more likely to stop importing products with low RTA tariff rates or high most-favored-nation tariff rates from non-members and to start importing such products from RTA member countries. However, from the quantitative point of view, there are very few firms that switch import sources from non-members to RTA members when facing the introduction of RTA schemes. |
| Keywords: | International trade, International agreements, International economic integration, RTA, Trade creation, Thailand |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper621&r=int |
| By: | Kurtovic, Safet; Halili, Blerim; Maxhuni, Nehat |
| Abstract: | In this study, the effect of trade liberalization with the leading trade partners on the B&H trade balance was researched. The theoretical framework includes a gravity model and econometric technique GMM dynamic panel. The research results have shown that export of products from B&H increased thanks to the growth of macroeconomic indicators of trading partners, dummy variables and the export of certain products according to the sector structure. On the other hand, imports of products in B&H decreased due to the decline of macroeconomic indicators of B&H, dummy variables and reduced imports of certain products according to the sector structure. |
| Keywords: | Trade liberalization, trade balance, imports, exports, trade deficit |
| JEL: | F14 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2016–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75053&r=int |
| By: | Kenichi Kawasaki (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Badri Narayanan G (University of Washington Seattle); Houssein Guimbard (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)); Arata Kuno (Kyorin University) |
| Abstract: | While there are many studies focusing on the impacts of various trade policy agreements across the world in the recent years, there is not much focus in the literature on the extent to which these agreements are implemented later, in terms of the aspects agreed upon therein. In this paper, we firstly identify the past achievements of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in East Asian regions in terms of tariff removals and suggest future rooms for further economic benefits from trade liberalization in the region. Secondly, we provide the tariff concession dataset in the GTAP Data Base, which distinguishes the tariff removals agreed in these EPAs in East Asia but not implemented yet, from the existing overall tariffs in the benchmark year. As the standard GTAP Data Base only incorporates enforced tariff reductions through the base year applied tariffs, to analyse future trade integration, it might be worth it to integer commitments that are not yet implemented. We do that at the HS6 levels for East Asian EPAs that allows us to compare the economic impacts of partial versus complete implementation of the trade liberalization agreed in East Asian EPAs. Our results suggest that taking those commitments into account economically matters and that such satellite dataset might be taken as actual baseline for future policy simulations. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:16-21&r=int |
| By: | Kjetil Bjorvatn (NHH Norwegian School of Economics); Nicola Daniele Coniglio (Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro"); Hiroshi Kurata (Tohoko Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of globalization on the incentive to strengthen regional integration. In a simple three-country oligopolistic trade model, we demonstrate that increased external competitive pressure may induce governments, ináuenced by producer interests, to lower intra-regional trade costs in order to mitigate the effects of external competition on local businesses. |
| Keywords: | Regional integration; Globalization; Cournot competition |
| JEL: | F12 F15 F6 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_07-2016&r=int |
| By: | Dramane Coulibaly; Blaise Gnimassoun; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and to migration by focusing on African countries. Relying on robust estimation techniques dealing with both endogeneity and omitted variables issues, our results put forward the importance of accounting for the type of the partner country. We find evidence that while trade between Africa and industrialized countries has a clear and robust positive impact on Africa’s standards of living, trade with developing countries fails to be growth-enhancing. Moreover, our findings show that migration has no significant effect on per capita income in Africa regardless of the partner. Finally, exploring the trade openness transmission channel, we establish that the growth-enhancing effect of Africa’s trade with industrialized countries mainly occurs through an improvement in total factor productivity.. |
| Keywords: | Trade, International migration, Income per person, Africa. |
| JEL: | F22 F4 O4 O55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2016-50&r=int |
| By: | Endrész, Marianna; Skudelny, Frauke |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyse the role of the international trade network for the strength of the global recession across countries. The novelty of our paper is the use of value-added trade data to capture the importance of trade network structure. We estimate with BMA techniques how far network indicators measuring interlinkages in terms of value added trade has explanatory power both for the length and the depth of the recent crisis once we control for pre-crisis macroeconomic fundamentals. Our main findings are that the macroeconomic control variables with the strongest explanatory power for the length and the depth of the crisis are the growth rates of credit and of the real effective exchange rate in the pre-crisis period and, though to a lesser extent, GDP and inflation growth over the same period and pre-crisis foreign exchange reserves. Government debt, the GVC participation index and net foreign assets have very little explanatory power in the BMA estimations. The models’ performance increases when we introduce interaction terms of credit growth with other vulnerability measures. The results demonstrate that the coincidence of vulnerabilities matters a lot. Credit growth deepens the crisis mainly if accompanied with pre-crisis GDP growth or low reserves, while the crisis tends to be longer if credit growth has led to large leverage or the accumulation of net foreign liabilities. Finally, we find evidence that value added trade linkages have an impact on the severity of the crisis. While the increasing connectivity or openness of the country makes the crisis longer, the same characteristics of the neighbours makes it also deeper. The tendency to interact with already connected countries lowers or increases the impact of the crisis depending on the position of the country. Altogether we have mixed results on the direct trade channel, but we demonstrate the importance of network structure beyond the countries’ own openness. In addition, we are also able to improve results by using gross value added instead of gross trade data. JEL Classification: F14, C45, C52, C67 |
| Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging, crisis indicators, network indicators, value added trade, WIOD |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161971&r=int |
| By: | Anderson, Kym |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent to which sectoral trends and fluctuations in the Australian economy can be understood using international trade theory and knowledge of key policy developments. It suggests they are consistent with theory, but it also reveals several features that make Australia's economy unusual. The most striking are the facts that (1) the agricultural sector's share of GDP remained fairly constant rather than falling during 1860-1960 and even during the latest mining boom; and (2) the farm sector continued to enjoy a strong comparative advantage despite periodic spurts of growth in mining exports. |
| Keywords: | agricultural development; manufacturing protection; mining booms; structural transformation; Trade Costs |
| JEL: | F13 F63 N47 O13 Q17 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11598&r=int |
| By: | Artecona, Raquel; Plank-Brumback, Rosine M. |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the balance struck under the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) between the right to health and access to medicines and the need to maintain the economic incentives to spur innovation and research and development through intellectual property protection. The analysis focuses on the patent and data-related intellectual property protection provisions of the TPPA, specifically regarding pharmaceutical (small-molecule and biologic) products, including on patent duration, linkage and term extensions as well as clinical test data protection and market exclusivity. Special attention is paid to the United States and its negotiating position with respect to those aspects of intellectual property rights, as it has been and remains the world’s principal demandeur for high intellectual property rights (IPR) standards in trade agreements, including the TPPA. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col034:40729&r=int |
| By: | Cecilia Jona Lasinio (ISTAT); Stefano Manzocchi (LUISS "Guido Carli"); Valentina Meliciani (LUISS "Guido Carli") |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of intangible assets as factors influencing participation in global value chains (GVC) in a sample of European economies. We distinguish between different forms of participation in GVC entailing a different degree of capability to create value added domestically and we examine how different intangible assets contribute to foster countries’ engagement in GVC and the reaping of benefits from such participation. The data cover 14 European countries in two broad sectors (manufacturing and total market services) over the period 1995-2014. We find that investing in intangible assets favours participation in GVC and contributes to value appropriation along the chain. Moreover, different intangible assets contribute differently to forward and backward participation. |
| Keywords: | Intangible assets; global value chains; forward and backward participation; R&D expenditure |
| JEL: | F23 O30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lui:lleewp:16129&r=int |
| By: | Pekkala Kerr, Sari (Wellesley College); Kerr, William (Harvard Business School); Ozden, Caglar (World Bank); Parsons, Christopher (University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | The global distribution of talent is highly skewed and the resources available to countries to develop and utilize their best and brightest vary substantially. The migration of skilled workers across countries tilts the deck even further. Using newly available data, we first review the landscape of global talent mobility, which is both asymmetric and rising in importance. We next consider the determinants of global talent flows at the individual and firm levels and sketch some important implications. Third, we review the national gatekeepers for skilled migration and broad differences in approaches used to select migrants for admission. Looking forward, the capacity of people, firms, and countries to successfully navigate this tangled web of global talent will be critical to their success. |
| Keywords: | migration, talent, diaspora |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J15 J31 J44 L14 L26 O31 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10328&r=int |
| By: | Plank-Brumback, Rosine M. |
| Abstract: | The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) commissioned this study to analyze the implications of the balance struck under the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) between the right to health and access to next-generation medicines on the one hand, and on the other, the private right to intellectual property protection and the need to maintain profit-earning incentives to spur innovation and research and development. The study focuses on the patent and data-related intellectual property protection provisions of the TPPA, specifically regarding pharmaceutical (small-molecule and biologic ) products, including on patent duration, linkage and term extensions as well as clinical test data protection and market exclusivity. The study considers the position of the United States in this respect, as it has been and remains the world’s principal demandeur for high intellectual property rights (IPR) standards in trade agreements, including the TPPA. |
| Keywords: | ACUERDOS ECONOMICOS, NEGOCIACIONES COMERCIALES, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL, PROPIEDAD INTELECTUAL, PRODUCTOS FARMACEUTICOS, POLITICA COMERCIAL, INNOVACIONES, ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, PHARMACEUTICALS, TRADE POLICY, INNOVATIONS |
| Date: | 2016–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:40723&r=int |
| By: | Potelwa, Xolisiwe Y.; Nyhodo, Bonani; Ntombela, Sifiso M. |
| Abstract: | South African trade has been showing a growth increase in recent years, from R221 billion in 2001 to over R906 billion in 2014, which is equivalent to an annual average rate of 13%. The agricultural sector’s exports have increased even more rapidly, recording an annual growth rate of 14% between 2001 and 2014. The European Union (EU) has been South Africa’s traditional export market since the signing of the Trade Development Co-operation Agreement (TDCA) between South Africa and the EU. In recent years, the South African export share has been moving towards the African and Asian markets. The growth towards these markets has been driven by income growth, population growth, the formal retail evolution, and the establishment of new political ties in the East. This paper concludes that South African exports are mainly driven by economic factors, although political relations also complement the export growth. |
| Keywords: | Export growth, drivers, economical, political, agriculture, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae16:249318&r=int |
| By: | Mike Waugh (New York University); B Ravikumar (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we derive a new measure of openness—the trade potential index—that quantifies the potential gains to trade as a simple function of data. Using a standard multicountry trade model, we measure openness by a country’s potential welfare gain from moving to a world with frictionless trade. A country’s trade potential depends on only the trade elasticity and two observable statistics: the country’s home trade share and its income level. Quantitatively, poor countries have larger trade potentials relative to rich countries, while their welfare costs of autarky are similar. This leads us to infer that rich countries are more open to trade. Our trade potential index correlates strongly with estimates of trade costs, while both the welfare cost of autarky and the trade-to-GDP ratio exhibit weak correlations with trade costs. Thus, our measure of openness is informative about the underlying frictions to trade. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:1329&r=int |
| By: | Vanessa Alviarez (University of British Columbia, Sauder); Andrei A. Levchenko (University of Michigan and NBER); Javier Cravino (University of Michigan and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Using a large firm-level dataset, this paper studies multinational firmsÕ performance during the Great Recession. Foreign multinationals grew faster than local firms outside of the crisis, but slower during the crisis. Industry and size differences between domestic and foreign-owned firms account for much of this slowdown. However, multinationals from different countries performed differently during the crisis. The paper then assesses the role of multinationals in the global recession using a quantitative model. Had multinationalsÕ relative performance remained unchanged during the crisis, the median countryÕs aggregate growth would have been 0.12% higher, with a range of -0.13 to 0.5% across countries. |
| Keywords: | Great Recession, multinational firms |
| JEL: | F23 F44 |
| Date: | 2016–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mie:wpaper:654&r=int |
| By: | Mutreja, Piyusha |
| Abstract: | Composition of capital varies systematically with incomes: rich countries have higher equipment capital shares than poor countries. Also, equipment production is highly concentrated and most countries import equipment. I investigate the quantitative importance of equipment trade for capital composition and how it affects incomes through capital composition. In a multi-country trade model, I show that equipment trade accounts for one-quarter of the cross-country variation in equipment capital share. The decline in equipment trade barriers during 1985-2005 resulted in income gains for all countries. Digging into these income gains reveals that capital composition is an important transmission mechanism: changes in capital composition alone account for 45 percent of the gains, on average. |
| Keywords: | Equipment capital, Structures capital, Capital composition, Trade, Income, Capital goods, Equipment goods |
| JEL: | E22 F14 F43 O16 O47 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:74908&r=int |
| By: | Fabrice Defever; José-Daniel Reyes; Alejandro Riaño; Miguel Eduardo Sánchez-Martín |
| Abstract: | Special economic zones, one of the most important instruments of industrial policy in developing countries, often feature export share requirements. That is, firms located in these zones are obliged to export more than a certain stated share of their output to enjoy the wide array of incentives available there, a practice prohibited by the World Trade Organization. This paper exploits the staggered removal of export requirements across products and over time in the special economic zones of the Dominican Republic to evaluate whether the importance of exports originating from the zones was affected by the elimination of export requirements. The findings show that entry increased among firms in special economic zones, while the average value of export transactions fell for existing exporters following the reforms. At the same time, continuous exporters were unaffected by the policy change, possibly because these firms were not constrained by the export requirement. Overall, special economic zones became more important with respect to the number of exporters based there but not in terms of the value of exports. The findings suggest that the elimination of performance requirements made it more attractive for firms to be based in special economic zones. |
| Keywords: | Special Economic Zones; Export Share Requirements; Export Subsidies; Dominican Republic; Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:16/18&r=int |
| By: | Lubinga, Moses H.; Potelwa, Yolanda; Ntshangase, Thandeka; Nyondo, Bonani; Ngqangeni, Simphiwe |
| Abstract: | This work evaluates the effect of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP1) on EU’s fruit imports from Southern African Development Community (SADC) member countries during 2005-2014, using a new and advanced micro-econometric tool known as the Triple-Difference estimator. The estimator is advantageous given that it is robust to policy endogeneity and it uses a very flexible benchmark to which the intensive margin and extensive margin of trade performance are compared. Two preference margin measures are used as proxies for the preferential treatment granted to SADC member countries by the EU. Furthermore, highly disaggregated data at HS 6-Digit level, for 12 SADC member countries and 27 EU member states are used for the analysis. The analysis employed takes into consideration of zero-trade flows. Empirical results suggest that the EU-GSP scheme generally has a significant positive impact on EU’s fruit imports from SADC member countries. Notably, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) benefited more from the scheme as compared to the non-LDCs. |
| Keywords: | Triple-Difference estimator, Generalised System of Preference, SADC, fruits, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae16:246449&r=int |
| By: | Bredtmann, Julia; Martínez Flores, Fernanda; Otten, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Research on the relationship between high-skilled migration and remittances has been limited by the lack of suitable microdata. We create a unique cross-country dataset by combining household surveys from five Sub-Saharan African countries that enables us to analyze the effect of migrants' education on their remittance behavior. Having comprehensive information on both ends of the migrant-origin household relationship and employing household fixed effects specifications that only use within-household variation for identification allows us to address the problem of unobserved heterogeneity across migrants' origin households. Our results reveal that migrants' education has no significant impact on the likelihood of sending remittances. Conditional on sending remittances, however, high-skilled migrants send significantly higher amounts of money to their households left behind. This effect holds for the sub-groups of internal migrants and migrants in non-OECD countries, while it vanishes for migrants in OECD destination countries once characteristics of the origin household are controlled for. |
| Abstract: | Auf Basis von Haushaltsbefragungen in fünf Ländern Sub-Sahara Afrikas untersuchen wir den Einfluss der Bildung von Migranten auf deren Rücküberweisungen an ihre im Heimatland verbliebenen Haushalte. Das Vorhandensein umfangreicher Informationen über die Migranten als auch über die Haushalte im Heimatland sowie die Verwendung von Haushalts-Fixed-Effects-Schätzungen erlauben es uns, das Problem unbeobachtbarer Heterogenität zwischen den Herkunftshaushalten zu adressieren. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Bildung der Migranten keinen signifikanten Einfluss auf deren Wahrscheinlichkeit hat, Rücküberweisungen zu schicken. Gegeben, dass Rücküberweisungen gesendet werden, überweisen Migranten mit einem Universitätsabschluss jedoch signifikant höhere Beträge an ihre Herkunftshaushalte als geringer qualifizierte Migranten. Schätzungen für unterschiedliche Gruppen von Migranten zeigen, dass dieser Effekt für interne Migranten sowie für Migranten in Nicht-OECD-Ländern bestehen bleibt. Für Migranten in OECD-Ländern finden wir hingegen keinen signifikanten Einfluss des Bildungsniveaus auf deren Rücküberweisungen sobald Charakteristika des Haushaltes im Herkunftsland in den Modellen berücksichtigt werden. |
| Keywords: | migration,remittances,skill level,brain drain,Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | F22 F24 O15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:654&r=int |
| By: | Fitawek, Wegayehu Bogale; Kalaba, Mmatlou |
| Abstract: | The government of Ethiopia implemented a 150 percent export tax on raw hides and skin and semi-finished leather products and crust leather in 2008 and 2012 respectively, in order to encourage leather manufacturing industry. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of export tax on Ethiopia’s leather industry export competitiveness. Constant Market Share (CMS) model has been used to evaluate Ethiopian’s performance in leather product trade. Export value data in 2007 was used as a base year, whereas data in 2013 was considered as a year after export tax. The results indicated that, implementation of export tax shifted the export of hides and skins and unfinished leather product to finished leather product. Besides the shift in export products from raw materials to finished leather product, implementation of export tax has also resulted in positive export growth (2.55. this indicate that,the country’s leather product export growth was higher than world demand after implementation of export tax; which is most likely achieved by an increase in export competitiveness of the leather industry (2.25). |
| Keywords: | raw hide and skin, leather, export tax, competitiveness, CMS, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaae16:246458&r=int |
| By: | Mary Amiti; Tyler Bodine-Smith; Colin Hottman; Logan T. Lewis |
| Abstract: | In this post, we explore what has been driving the recent slump in U.S. imports of non-oil goods. |
| Date: | 2016–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgin:2016-11-07&r=int |
| By: | BAKARI, SAYEF |
| Abstract: | The nexus between trade and economic growth in Panama has been widely debated. This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in Panama. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1980 and 2015 was tested by using Johansen co-integration analysis of Vector Auto Regression Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is no relationship between exports, imports and economic growth in Panama. On the other hand, we found that there is a strong evidence of bidirectional causality from imports to economic growth and from exports to economic growth. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, are seen as the source of economic growth in Panama. |
| Keywords: | export, import, economic growth, Panama, cointegration and causality. |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2016–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75051&r=int |
| By: | Evgeny A. Kanaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander S. Korolev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | With its strong economic, technological and innovative potential, Asia-Pacific has the potential to drive the global economy. The “engine” of this drive is the system of supply-value chains within the vertically-organized Asia-Pacific conglomerates specializing in producing value-added intermediate goods and services. In the academic literature, this phenomenon is conceptualized as “Factory Asia”. To unlock Asia-Pacific’s true potential, the implementation of measures embracing regional infrastructural, institutional and people-to-people connectivity becomes the key prerequisite for success. The initiatives of Asia-Pacific economic regionalism covering the trans-Pacific and the East Asian/South Asian geographical domain—the Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—have different possibilities to develop the connectivity agenda. While FTAAP and potentially RCEP can stimulate these processes, for TPP it is highly problematic. This broadens the possibilities for Russia to get more involved in Asia-Pacific economic cooperation with an emphasis upon technologically-advanced exchanges within Factory Asia. Strengthening regional connectivity is the key component in Russia’s agenda in multilateral cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries, which was exemplified by Russia’s APEC agenda. While at present the resource-intensive production in Russia’s Far East is prioritized, the multiplier effect produced by the Territories of Advanced Development on the industrial and innovative sectors of Russian economy can help Russia to enter Factory Asia. |
| Keywords: | Asia-Pacific, economic regionalism, Factory Asia, TPP, RCEP, Russia |
| JEL: | F5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:27/ir/2016&r=int |
| By: | Poot, Jacques (University of Waikato); Alimi, Omoniyi (University of Waikato); Cameron, Michael P. (University of Waikato); Maré, Dave C. (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust) |
| Abstract: | For at least half a century, and building on observations first made a century earlier, the gravity model has been the most commonly‐used paradigm for understanding gross migration flows between regions. This model owes its success to, firstly, its intuitive consistency with migration theories; secondly, ease of estimation in its simplest form; and, thirdly, goodness of fit in most applications. While fitting gravity models of aggregate migration flows started taking backstage to microdata analysis in the 1980s, a recent comeback has resulted from increasing applications to international migration and from the emergence of statistical theories appropriate for studying spatial interaction. In this paper we review the status quo and argue for greater integration of internal and international migration modelling. Additionally we revisit the issues of parameter stability and distance deterrence measurement by means of a New Zealand case study. We argue that gravity modelling of migration has a promising future in a multi‐regional stochastic population projection system – an area in which the model has been to date surprisingly underutilised. We conclude with outlining current challenges and opportunities in this field. |
| Keywords: | gravity model, internal migration, international migration, population projection |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10329&r=int |
| By: | Erik Canton; Irune Solera |
| Abstract: | Greenfield FDI flows into EU countries account for a non-negligible share of total EU FDI. They create new capital assets and additional production capacity which are important elements to support the transition to a stronger European growth path. This project investigates determinants of Greenfield FDI flows into the EU countries using sectoral data on bilateral greenfield FDI flows and associated job creation for the 2003-2014 period. The dataset covers the 28 EU countries and also includes as country of origin the main non-EU investors. A gravity model explaining FDI from distance indicators and policy variables is built, while controlling for other important factors, employing Heckman two-step selection procedure. The results suggest that the business climate (from World Bank's Doing Business) and product market regulations (from OECD's PMR) are important determinants of greenfield investment in the EU. This project provides additional evidence on the importance of removing unnecessary regulatory barriers to investment and could help in the discussion on the Investment Plan for Europe. |
| JEL: | C33 C34 E22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:033&r=int |
| By: | Dotti, Valerio |
| Abstract: | I investigate the effects of population ageing on immigration policies. Voters' attitude towards immigrants depends on how the net gains from immigration are divided up in the society by the fiscal policy. In the theoretical literature this aspect is treated as exogenous to the political process because of technical constraints. This generates inconsistent predictions about the policy outcome. I adopt a new equilibrium concept for voting models to analyse the endogenous relationship between immigration and fiscal policies and solve this apparent inconsistency. I show that the elderly and the poor have a common interest in limiting immigration and in increasing public spending. This exacerbates the effects of population ageing on public finances and results in a high tax burden on working age individuals and further worsens the age profile of the population. Moreover, I show that if the share of elderly population is suffciently large, then a society is unambiguously harmed by the tightening in the immigration policy caused by the demographic change. The implications of the model are consistent with the patterns observed in UK attitudinal data and in line with the findings of the empirical literature about migration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration , Ageing , Policy , Voting |
| JEL: | D72 C71 J61 H55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnh:wpaper:41185&r=int |