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on International Trade |
| By: | Byron Gangnes (Department of Economics and UHERO, University of Hawaii); Ari Van Assche (Department of International Business HEC Montréal) |
| Abstract: | The trade collapse of 2008-2009 and the anemic trade growth since then raise the question of whether trade elasticities may be undergoing fundamental structural change. A potential source of such change is the spread of global value chains (GVCs), which have brought a marked increase in the use of intermediate goods and changes in the nature of trade competition. We review the recent literature on the impact of GVCs on measured trade elasticities and the ways in which their emergence may affect how we estimate and interpret trade responsiveness. We then draw out a few implications of recent research for global modeling. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, trade elasticities |
| JEL: | C5 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201617&r=int |
| By: | Fabrice Defever; Alejandro Riaño |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of subsidies subject to export share requirements (ESR) - that is, conditioned on a firm exporting at least a given fraction of its output - on exports, the intensity of competition and welfare, through the lens of a two-country model of trade with heterogeneous firms. Our calibrated model suggests that this type of subsidy boosts exports more and provides greater protection for domestic firms than a standard unconditional export subsidy, albeit at a substantial welfare cost. |
| Keywords: | export share requirements; export subsidies; trade policy; heterogeneous firms; China |
| JEL: | F12 F13 O47 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67659&r=int |
| By: | Andrew B. Bernard; Renzo Massari; Jose-Daniel Reyes; Daria Taglioni |
| Abstract: | Two identical firms that start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first year export levels and biases up first year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partialyear bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 65 percent and the first year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect eliminates high first year export growth rates, raises initial export levels and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth. |
| Keywords: | export entry; export growth; margins of trade; heterogeneous firms |
| JEL: | C81 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67656&r=int |
| By: | Fiankor, Dela-Dem Doe; Ehrich, Malte; Brümmer, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | The integration of developing countries into the world trading system is an important development mechanism to reduce poverty in these countries. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have recently spread in terms of quantity and type. Some of these, like the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) differ from previous RTAs as they explicitly support export capacities of developing countries. Therefore, it is particularly relevant to investigate the effect of eligibility for various types of RTAs first on exports and second on rejections at EU borders. Empirical analysis is carried out on 52 African countries' exports of fruits, nuts and vegetables and fish to the EU-27 from 2008 to 2013. Adopting the gravity framework we find that only EBA eligibility has induced significantly exports of fruits, nuts and vegetables from Africa to the EU-27. Estimating different count models using border rejection data from the EU Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed database, we also find other trade enhancing effects of RTAs that go beyond tariff reductions, as all EU-Africa RTAs have negative effects on border rejections. The effects nevertheless differ across agreements and products. Specifically, EPA eligibility decreases rejections on both products, GSP decreases rejections on fish and fish products and FTA (TDCA and Euro-Med) decreases rejections on fruits, nuts and vegetables. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural trade, Border rejections, Regional trade agreements, Africa, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, F15, Q17, |
| Date: | 2016–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gagfdp:244352&r=int |
| By: | Derek Kellenberg; Arik Levinson |
| Abstract: | In official international trade statistics, annual commerce between every pair of countries is reported twice: once by the importing country and once by the exporter. These double reports provide an opportunity for audit. In principle, the two reported trade values should differ systematically only by transport costs, because the values reported by importers include freight and insurance. But in practice, after controlling for distance and other standard trade costs, the remaining gaps between importer- and exporter-reported trade vary systematically with GDP, tariffs and taxes, auditing standards, corruption, and trade agreements, suggesting that firms intentionally misreport trade data. These misreports have implications for trade agreements and domestic fiscal policy, and for empirical assessments of the efficacy of those policies. |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22593&r=int |
| By: | Pietro de Matteis (Banca d'Italia); Filomena Pietrovito (Università degli Studi del Molise); Alberto Franco Pozzolo (Università degli Studi del Molise) |
| Abstract: | It is frequently argued that the geographical context in which firms operate can have a crucial impact on their propensity to internationalize. In this paper, we present the results of an empirical analysis that examines the determinants of export performance for a sample including more than 4,300 Italian manufacturing firms over the period 2000-2013, focusing on the role of provincial context, after controlling for firm-level characteristics. To this end, we first adopt a cluster analysis methodology to classify each Italian province in terms of context variables, such as: the distance to foreign markets, the level of human and social capital and the degree of efficiency of the public administration. Second, we estimate a set of binomial choice and linear models to assess the impact of the economic and social environment on the extensive and intensive margins of trade. The results, after confirming that firm-specific factors (size, experience, productivity, capital intensity, innovation, geographical agglomeration and, to some extent, credit constraints) affect both the intensive and the extensive margins of exports, show that context characteristics at the province level have an additional (statistically and economically) significant impact on the export performances of firms. |
| Keywords: | firm internationalization, local context, firm heterogeneity |
| JEL: | D22 F10 F14 F18 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_352_16&r=int |
| By: | Thierry Mayer; Marc J. Melitz; Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano |
| Abstract: | We document how demand shocks in export markets lead French multi-product exporters to re-allocate the mix of products sold in those destinations. In response to positive demand shocks, those French firms skew their export sales towards their best performing products; and also extend the range of products sold to that market. We develop a theoretical model of multi-product firms and derive the specific demand and cost conditions needed to generate these product-mix reallocations. Our theoretical model highlights how the increased competition from demand shocks in export markets .and the induced product mix reallocations - induce productivity changes within the firm. We then empirically test for this connection between the demand shocks and the productivity of multi-product firms exporting to those destinations. We find that the effect of those demand shocks on productivity are substantial .and explain an important share of aggregate productivity fluctuations for French manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | productivity; trade; competition |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67678&r=int |
| By: | Jan Hagemejer (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland) |
| Abstract: | Since the transition of Central and Eastern European Countries in 1990s, liberalization in trade has changed the structure of these economies. The structural changes occurred as these countries to become the New Member States (NMS) of the European Union in the first decade of the 21st century. In this paper, we shed lights on these changes by analyzing the position of NMS within the global value chains (GVC). By calculation of upstreamness measures proposed by Antras et al. (2012), and tracing both the structure and the evolution of upstreamness over time, we are able to analyze the change in the organization of production around the world and the role the NMS play in the most important export sectors.. Although we observe a global increasing trend in the upstreamness of all countries, we find the convergence in the distance from final demand in trade of NMS and the EU15. There are, however, some large and persistent sectoral differences. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, upstreamness, European Union, New Member States |
| JEL: | C67 F10 F15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-23&r=int |
| By: | Cletus C. Coughlin; Dennis Novy |
| Abstract: | Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form aggregated macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the relative cost of trading within borders. The cost of trading across borders therefore appears relatively smaller. This mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium. Even if no border frictions exist at the micro level, gravity estimation on aggregate data can still produce large border effects. We test our theory on domestic and international trade flows at the level of U.S. states. Our results confirm the model's predictions, with quantitatively large effects. |
| Keywords: | Gravity; Geography; Borders; Trade Costs; Heterogeneity; Home Bias; Spatial Attenuation; Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) |
| JEL: | F10 F15 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67655&r=int |
| By: | Bown, Chad P.; Tovar, Patricia |
| Abstract: | There is not yet consensus in the trade agreements literature as to whether preferential liberalization leads to more or less multilateral liberalization. However, research thus far has focused mostly on tariff measures of import protection. We develop more comprehensive measures of trade policy that include the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping and safeguards; studies in other contexts have also shown how these policies can erode some of the trade liberalization gains that arise when examining tariffs alone. We examine the experiences of Argentina and Brazil during the formation of the MERCOSUR over 1990-2001, and we find that an exclusive focus on applied tariffs may lead to a mischaracterization of the relationship between preferential liberalization and liberalization toward non-member countries. First, any "building block" evidence that arises by focusing on tariffs during the period in which MERCOSUR was only a free trade area can disappear once we also include changes in import protection that arise through TTBs. Furthermore, there is also evidence of a "stumbling block" effect of preferential tariff liberalization for the period in which MERCOSUR became a customs union, and this result tends to strengthen upon inclusion of TTBs. Finally, we also provide a first empirical examination of whether market power motives can help explain the patterns of changes to import protection that are observed in these settings. |
| Keywords: | antidumping; Argentina; Brazil; MERCOSUR; MFN; preferential trade agreements; safeguards; Tariffs; temporary trade barriers |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11494&r=int |
| By: | NAITO Takumi |
| Abstract: | To examine the effects of unilateral trade liberalization on growth and welfare of the liberalizing and partner countries through intraindustry reallocations, we formulate an asymmetric two-country Melitz model of trade and endogenous growth based on capital accumulation. We obtain two general results analytically. First, each country's mass of exported varieties, revenue share of exported varieties, and growth rate increase if and only if its domestic productivity cutoff increases. Second, compared with the old balanced growth path, a permanent fall in any import trade cost raises the growth rates of all countries for all periods, and welfare of all countries. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16079&r=int |
| By: | KIYOTA Kozo; OIKAWA Keita; YOSHIOKA Katsuhiro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the competitiveness of industries in six Asian countries—China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—using the World Input-Output Database tables from 1995 to 2011. Competitiveness is measured by the value added that industries contribute to the production of final goods, which we refer to as global value chain (GVC) income, rather than by gross exports. We find that the competitiveness of manufacturing is increasing in China, India, and Indonesia, whereas it is decreasing in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Even though we focus on the GVC income rather than gross exports, the increasing competitiveness of Chinese, Indian, and Indonesian manufacturing is remarkable. We also find that, unlike EU countries, Asian countries have generally been able to combine increasing GVC job opportunities with a rise in real income. The GVC income in Asian countries presents a different picture to that in European countries. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16080&r=int |
| By: | Thanh Le (The University of Queensland [Brisbane]); Cuong Le Van (IPAG BUSINESS SCHOOL - IPAG BUSINESS SCHOOL PARIS, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the impact of trade liberalisation and R&D policies on exporting firms' incentive to innovate and social welfare. Key factors determining the government's optimal policy are the strength of R&D spillover effect and the toughness of firm competition. When firms only compete in an overseas market, the optimal policy is to tax R&D. Trade liberalisation in the overseas market induces a higher R&D tax rate to be imposed on firms. When firms also conduct business in the home market, the government should financially support firms' R&D. Trade liberalisation always increases firms' output sales, R&D investments, and social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Trade,R&D spillovers,subsidies,welfare,process innovation |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01314650&r=int |
| By: | Yuichi Ikeda (Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University); Tsutomu Watanabe (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | We developed a model to reconstruct the international trade network by considering both commodities and industry sectors in order to study the effects of reduced trade costs. First, we estimated trade costs to reproduce WIOD and NBER- UN data. Using these costs, we estimated the trade costs of sector specific trade by types of commodities. We successfully reconstructed sector-specific trade for each types of commodities by maximizing the configuration entropy with the estimated costs. In WIOD, trade is actively conducted between the same industry sectors. On the other hand, in NBER-UN, trade is actively conducted between neighboring countries. This seems like a contradiction. We conducted community analysis for the reconstructed sector-specific trade network by type of commodities. The community analysis showed that products are actively traded among same industry sectors in neighboring countries. Therefore the observed features of the community structure for WIOD and NBER-UN are complementary. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf393&r=int |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kazaryan, Margarita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsov, D.E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sedalishchev, V.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Firanchuk, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of the agreement on free trade area between Ukraine and the EU and an assessment of the signing of this agreement and the political situation around him will affect the GDP of Russia, Ukraine and the EU, trade flows between the two countries and discussed the risks of termination of cooperation for the individual enterprises of Ukraine and Russia. On the basis of the general equilibrium model, the authors consider the implications for different scenarios of further development of trade relations between Russia and Ukraine. The first scenario is the implementation of the trade agreement on association, namely the zeroing reciprocal duties between the EU and Ukraine. The second scenario is the introduction of CCT EAEC countries in relation to imports from Ukraine, without consideration of the implementation of the commercial part of the association agreement. The third scenario is considering a complete cessation of mutual trade through the introduction of protective (in magnitude) of mutual non-tariff barriers Russia and Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine , Russia, EU, CIS, trade unions |
| Date: | 2016–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1854&r=int |
| By: | Robert Kollmann (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of the real exchange rate, consumption and net foreign assets, in a two country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country’s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, in equilibrium; this raises its consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. The effects of risk appetite shocks resemble those of volatility shocks. In a recursive preferences-complete markets framework, volatility and risk appetite shocks account for a noticeable share of the fluctuations of the real exchange rate, net exports and net foreign assets. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption growth and the real exchange rate. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:721&r=int |
| By: | Kuznetsov, D.E.kuznetsovde@iep.ru (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work is devoted to the analysis of the export, import and consumption of Russia in terms of jobs. The calculations in this section are mainly used data base WIOD Socio Economic Account. An important aspect of the global value chains of international corporations is to optimize the costs of factors of production, in particular labor. Production of sophisticated technology products are often composed of a plurality of production steps, each of which requires a different proportion of production factors and components. Logistics and development of information technology has led to the fact that the manufacturing steps can be greatly geographically quite distant from each other. All these circumstances oblige governments to take into account not only domestic but also global factors in the formation of the optimal industrial policy and the rules of the game in the labor market. Depending on the conditions, some goods can be carried out within the country, thus creating jobs or imported, that could be perceived as an import jobs. Ultimately, these aspects may be important in determining the level of the country's total income, exactly as determining the level of inequality. |
| Keywords: | WIOD, export, import, jobs |
| Date: | 2016–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1856&r=int |
| By: | Mili, Samir |
| Abstract: | This contribution explores the buyer side of the value chains for the main agricultural products sourced from the Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPCs) in North Africa and Middle East into the EU, taking Spain as study case of these European import flows. Using the Global Value Chain (GVC) approach, it provides new survey-based evidence for better understanding and profiling the opportunities and constraints for these trade flows, and therefore deriving implications to improve the efficiency of the target value chains both in origin and in destination. Primary information has been gathered using two complementary methods. First, a buyer survey has been conducted through structured questionnaires directed to major Spanish importing and trading companies of orange, strawberry, tomato and olive oil sourced from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. Subsequently, survey results have been supplemented by in depth, semi-structured interviews to a representative group of knowledgeable experts from the academic, public administration and business sectors. Results show differences depending on the product and the country studied. The approach used has been efficient in fulfilling the research objectives. It complements conventional quantitative inquiries where available evidence reveals serious difficulties to conduct thorough empirical analysis of the functioning of this trade with quantitative models. It is shown that the suggested approach is an alternative avenue to overcome these difficulties. |
| Keywords: | Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, agricultural trade, Global Value Chain, buyer survey, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iefi16:244541&r=int |
| By: | Cecilia Bellora; Sébastien Jean |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief assesses the possible economic impacts for the European Union of granting market economy status (MES) to China in antidumping investigations. The issue is important: China ranks first among the countries targeted by European antidumping, and sanctions cover tariff lines worth 8.7% of EU imports from China, based on pre-investigation imports (0.5% for MES partners). We find that China’s exports face a larger number of antidumping investigations than those from MES partners, even accounting for China’s trade specificities. These investigations also have a higher chance of being won by the plaintiff. Furthermore, when a sanction is decided, its trade-restrictive impact is higher against China. In addition, we show that antidumping measures lead not only to an increase in the prices of targeted Chinese products but also in those of Chinese untargeted products similar to those directly targeted. This chilling effect materializes in 4 to 14% prices increases for untargeted exports belonging to the same sector as those targeted. It does not affect MES partners. Antidumping cases against non-MES partners other than China are not numerous enough to isolate the impact of the MES per se. We thus assess the impact of granting MES to China assuming that all China’s specificities in EU antidumping procedures would disappear as a result. Under this assumption, disregarding the chilling effect, changing China’s status would boost its exports to the EU by 3.9% to 5.3% in volume (€13bn to €18bn). Factoring in the removal of the present chilling effect, the impact might reach 7.4% to 21% in volume (€25bn to €72bn). Domestic output losses would be small in relative terms (up to 0.06% disregarding the chilling effect, up to 0.32% taking it into account), but significant in absolute terms (respectively, €3.9bn and €23bn); 90% of these impacts reflect the decline in the number of investigations, as opposed to the level of duty in case of sanction. Accordingly, dropping the so-called lesser duty rule would not alter significantly these impacts. |
| Keywords: | Antidumping;Market Economy Status;Chilling effect ;China |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2016-11&r=int |
| By: | Povilas Lastauskas (Bank of Lithuania); Julius Stakenas (Bank of Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a theoretical model that introduces frictional unemployment in a multisectoral heterogeneous firms model. We allow for multi-worker firms and dynamic matching process. In doing so, we have a rich environment that combines product, labour, and international markets. The focus is on unemployment benefits and employment contingent subsidies. We establish a mechanism, which is different from the standard search and matching model. A change in labour market policies due to the feedback from labour market tightness to wages transforms the share of exporters and affects average productivity. Partial equilibrium effects are overturned for subsidies in general equilibrium due to sectoral arbitrage condition. We address the following questions in the quantitative exercise: How does trade along intensive and extensive margins evolve with changes in labour market policies? How do firms’ profitabilities and thus reallocations across exporters/non-exporters react to labour market institu-tions? What are the differences between a domestic and a trade-bloc wide shock? In addition to the theory contribution, we find that unemployment benefits bear differ-ent policy implications with regards to international coordination than employment subsidies. |
| Keywords: | labour market institutions, heterogeneous multi-worker firms, dynamic matching, openness |
| JEL: | E24 F12 F16 |
| Date: | 2016–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lie:wpaper:33&r=int |
| By: | Allan Webster (Bournemouth University, Executive Business Centre) |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines the relationship between innovation and foreign ownership for a large sample of firms in 29 transitional countries, taken from the 2013 BEEPS survey. The analysis is based on two different aspects of FDI theory – technology transfer and strategic asset seeking (with respect to R&D). It finds that firms who innovate with respect to new products, new processes and new management techniques have, on balance, more foreign ownership than those who do not. The evidence supports a view that strategic asset seeking is associated with inward FDI. It also supports the view that technology transfer is also an important feature of the relationship between innovation and FDI in transitional countries. Of the two effects the technology transfer effect is of more consequence than the strategic asset seeking effect. |
| Keywords: | FDI; innovation; transition; firm; technology transfer; strategic asset seeking |
| JEL: | F23 O30 P20 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes02&r=int |
| By: | Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road initiative, recently embarked on by China, aims to improve cross-border infrastructure in order to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. The authors estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, should benefit considerably. This is also true for eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, south-east Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the Belt and Road region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping’s current vision for the Belt and Road, centred on improving transport infrastructure, is very good news for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:16296&r=int |
| By: | Gumpert, Anna; Hines Jr, James R; Schnitzer, Monika |
| Abstract: | Multinational firms with operations in high-tax countries can benefit the most from reallocating taxable income to tax havens, though this is sufficiently diffcult and costly that only 20.4 percent of German multinational firms have any tax haven affiliates. Among German manufacturing firms, a one percentage point higher foreign tax rate is associated with a 2.3 percent greater likelihood of owning a tax haven affiliate. This is consistent with tax avoidance incentives, and contrasts with earlier evidence for U.S. firms. The relationship is less strong for firms in service industries, possibly reflecting the difficulty of reallocating taxable service income. |
| Keywords: | multinational firms; tax havens |
| JEL: | F23 H87 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11495&r=int |
| By: | Hoai-Son Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi); Minh Ha-Duong (Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi - USTH (VIETNAM) - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | My doctoral research intersects two recent developments of the global economy. The first is the emergence of the wind turbine industry, to provide the machines for climate-friendly electricity generation. The second is the increasing importance of production networks in East Asia. Production networks are defined by the cross-border dispersion of component production/assembly within vertically integrated production processes. In industries where a production network pattern is in place, each country specializes in a particular stage of the production sequence. The ultimate goal of my research is to understand which factors determine the participation of East Asia developing countries in wind turbine industry’s production network. The findings from this research will broaden our understanding on production networks and its policy implications for developing countries in East Asia, Vietnam in particular. This first-year poster presents four preliminary trade data analysis results. A) Except for a unique decline in 2009, the extent of the wind turbine network had been expanding during the period 2007-2014. B) The network was intra-regional rather than inter-regional. C) Europe was the largest one followed by Asia. D) Developing countries in East Asia only account for minor share of the network. Next, these findings will be confronted to the existing theoretical concept models based on neo-classical trade theory; industrial organization theory and global value chain theory. In the following years, such quantitative international trade analysis will be completed by qualitative sector surveys, most likely in Europe. |
| Keywords: | International Economics, Organization Behavior, Trade, Production fragmentation networks, Renewable Energy, Wind turbine industry |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01321551&r=int |
| By: | de Carvalho, Bernardo Reynolds Pacheco |
| Abstract: | In this paper the author argues that sustainable development starts always solving the basic needs, mainly food needs and food security concerns of any community. Those concerns are key stones for any social‐economic development process, and need to be addressed in terms of guarantees in time and through time. Security concerns at several levels should be on the agenda, but food is a necessary condition to address the other dimensions of the human security concerns. The actual food system today represents one of the big achievements of the human community, at global/world level, in terms of solving the global needs in food, but it is still far away from solving the human needs at local community level and individual level where many problems are present. For example, hunger in the last 20‐30 years have been always between 800 million persons and 1 billion, and malnutrition is now even with bigger numbers, with estimations for obesity above 1,2 billion persons. The main argument of the paper is around the understanding that global sustainable development can only be achieved with local economic development, and it will be used the food system analysis to provide evidences on that matter. However this view cannot be confused with an inward perspective and it will be shown that improvements in trade flows are also important moves in most cases, regarding economic development and quality of life. Food security concerns and food sovereignty are both key dimensions to be analyzed in any food system, but both concepts have a lot in common, and can be seen as convergent in many dimensions. Two case studies will be used to provide support to the discussion, (one European Country and an African Country), showing that human welfare and food nutrition can be improved through time, where the food production system play an important role, but also trade, and where local economic development does not mean necessarily lower dependency from abroad. Policy and economic development experts should be able to address and provide solutions to improve welfare, food security and food sovereignty, preserving and improving equilibrium with nature, autonomy, freedom of choice, less vulnerability of the systems and, at the same time, taking full advantage of the international relations and trade opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iefi16:244443&r=int |
| By: | Jenifer Piesse (Bournemouth University and University of Stellenbosch); Dragana Radicic (University of Cambridge); Allan Webster (Bournemouth University, Executive Business Centre) |
| Abstract: | This empirical study examines the effect of EU accession on firm efficiency in a sample of 27 transitional countries using data from the 2005 and 2013 BEEPS surveys. Using stochastic frontier analysis and a separate propensity score matching approach it finds a statistically significant association between EU membership and firm performance in both cross-sections. Since EU membership involves more than the liberalisation required for the single market it also uses propensity score matching to find a statistically significant association between EU membership and the internationalisation of firms in transitional countries. Finally it uses inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to test the proposition that stronger firm performance in transitional countries was associated with firms with higher levels of internationalisation (exports and foreign ownership). Our results support the view that EU membership enhanced firm efficiency in new members from transitional economies and that internationalisation was an important mechanism in that process. |
| Keywords: | firm efficiency; productivity; European Union; transition |
| JEL: | F14 F15 D22 I25 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes03&r=int |
| By: | Zharkov, Vasiliy Petrovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Malakhov, Vladimir Sergeevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Simon, Mark Evgenievich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Letnyakov, Denis Eduardovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to the international political and economic aspects of global migration. Contemporary international migration seems as a natural effect of the free trade policy. Being under the influence of the macroeconomic foundations, international migration couldn’t be explained only in terms of economic reasons. The regulation of the global migration is the question of both economic and politics at the same time. Obstacles to the formation of an international regime on migration looks in a clash of international actors interests, security problems, human rights, collective identity, based values of democracy and nation-state, which actually do political issues. The research presents a critical review of the main approaches existing in modern theories of international relations and international political economy in their relation to international migration. |
| Keywords: | global migration, free trade police, macroeconomy |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:16611&r=int |
| By: | Ncube, Prince; Cheteni, Priviledge |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the BRICS alliance on South Africa’s economy and the impact that trade openness in the alliance has on South Africa’s economy. The study uses series data from 1980 to 2012 and employs up to date econometric methodologies- unit root and vector error correction model estimates to achieve its aims. The empirical result reveals that international trade has contributed a lot to the high economic growth rates experienced by the BRICS economies during the recent decades. However, it is also found that international trade is not the only contributing factor. Human Capital formation, Gross Domestic Capital Formation and Real Effective Exchange Rate appreciation are equally important contributors. Results of the study however reveal that South Africa’s trade openness in the alliance has detrimental long run effects for the economy. The study also reveals that despite the growth experienced overall in the alliance, South Africa’s economic participation is limited due to unfair trade practices amongst the members of the alliance. The findings provide an insight of the policies to be adopted to achieve higher growth rates in South Africa within BRICS alliance. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Trade openness, Growth, BRICS, Unit Root, Vector Error Correction Model. |
| JEL: | E2 E22 E6 G2 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73488&r=int |
| By: | Soumyatanu Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | This paper, using a full-employment general equilibrium model for a developing Asian country like India with internationally non-traded goods and international fragmentation in skill-intensive production, illuminates how liberalised input trade, by enhancing demand for skills in the skill-intensive service sectors, could affect the unskilled wages prevailing in the informal sectors and employment conditions in those sectors, through the existence of finished non-tradable and the corresponding domestic demand-supply forces. The model economy is characterised by dual unskilled labour market with unionised formal and non-unionised informal sectors. Quantitative analyses have also been performed to simulate how the changes in elasticities of factor substitution in production of different sectors account for the movement in informal wage and therefore the movement in skilled–unskilled wage gap. Therefore, the relative wage inequality in a developing Asian country like India with dual labour markets has not been governed only by the increase in the skilled wages. |
| Keywords: | Input trade reform; non-traded goods; informal wage; informal employment; wage inequality; general equilibrium; India |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:16/15&r=int |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsov, D.E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sedalishchev, V.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of the work is to establish the regularities inherent in the behavior of exporters in the formation of export prices and an explanation of the mechanisms of these laws, the following theoretical models of international trade. |
| Keywords: | export, world market |
| Date: | 2016–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1855&r=int |
| By: | ITO Koji; ZHU Lianming; YUKIMOTO Tadashi |
| Abstract: | Foreign production and sales of Japanese multinational firms are factors that may have impeded the recovery of Japanese exports experienced since 2010 after the world financial crisis. By applying the two-stage least squares method for the matched panel data of the Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities, Survey of Overseas Business Activities, and Census of Manufacture and Economic Census for Business Activity from 2000 to 2012, this paper estimates two gravity equations for exports and foreign sales of Japanese manufacturing multinational firms simultaneously and analyzes what has caused Japanese exports to fall in the 2010s. The result of the estimation indicates exports are affected positively by foreign sales and negatively by foreign markets and exchange rates while foreign sales are affected positively by exports and foreign markets and negatively by exchange rates. The result implies that inactive foreign sales of multinational firms as well as appreciation of the Japanese yen and recovery of foreign markets have induced the stagnation of Japanese exports in the 2010s. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:16049&r=int |
| By: | Grégoire Tallard; Peter Liapis; Graham Pilgrim |
| Abstract: | Reducing hunger and undernourishment is a global priority and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have the ambitious target of eradicating hunger entirely by 2030. Using the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook to 2024, this paper provides projections on the availability of calories at the national level, for the number of persons undernourished, and for the proportion of undernourishment (PoU) that are consistent with the market projections of the Outlook’s baseline. It also considers the impact on undernourishment of four alternative scenarios: faster income growth relative to the baseline in developing countries; stronger growth in agricultural productivity; a combination of a faster income growth with a stronger productivity growth; and finally a more equitable access to available food supplies. Under the baseline, the global PoU is projected to fall from 11% to 8% over ten years, with Latin America as a whole dipping under the 5% threshold at which the FAO considers hunger to be effectively eradicated. The PoU falls from 12% to 8% in Asia and the Pacific and from 23% to 19% in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global total of undernourished people declines from 788 million to 636 million. The number of undernourished individuals fall the most in Asia. Higher income growth or more productive agriculture removes more people from the ranks of the undernourished, but in most cases, more equitable access to food leads to the biggest reductions. The analysis confirms that it is not lack of available food that is the fundamental problem, but rather effective access to that food. Trade plays an increasing role in ensuring national food availability for many countries. |
| Keywords: | food security, development goals, hunger, Prevalence of undernourishment, sustainable development goals millennium, scenarios |
| JEL: | I31 O13 Q10 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:95-en&r=int |
| By: | Gordon Hanson; Craig McIntosh |
| Abstract: | How will worldwide changes in population affect pressures for international migration in the future? We contrast the past three decades, during which population pressures contributed to substantial labor flows from neighboring countries into the United States and Europe, with the coming three decades, which will see sharp reductions in labor-supply growth in Latin America but not in Africa or much of the Middle East. Using a gravity-style empirical model, we examine the contribution of changes in relative labor-supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and then apply this model to project future bilateral flows based on long-run UN forecasts of working-age populations in sending and receiving countries. Because the Americas are entering an era of uniformly low population growth, labor flows across the Rio Grande are projected to slow markedly. Europe, in contrast, will face substantial demographically driven migration pressures from across the Mediterranean for decades to come. Although these projected inflows would triple the first-generation immigrant stocks of larger European countries, they would still absorb only a small fraction of the 800-million-person increase in the working-age population of Sub-Saharan Africa that is projected to occur over the coming 40 years. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22622&r=int |
| By: | Chiswick, Barry R. (George Washington University); Rebhun, Uzi (Hebrew University, Jerusalem); Beider, Nadia (Hebrew University, Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the Hebrew language proficiency, probability of employment, and labor market earnings of immigrants in Israel. It uses the 2010/11 Immigrant Absorption Survey conducted by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. Unique features of the analysis include the study of long-duration immigrants (3 to 20 years), and analyses for: males and females, primary reasons for immigration, the subsidized intensive Hebrew language training program (ulpan), Ethiopian Jews, and Jewish and non-Jewish immigrants from the Former Soviet Union (FSU), in addition to standard immigration, demographic, and human capital variables. Results from multivariate analyses largely accord with the "standard theoretical model" of language proficiency regarding the mechanisms of "exposure", "efficiency", and "economic incentives". Acquaintance with the local language, on its part, increases the likelihood of being employed, and it has positive earnings outcomes. We discuss implications of the findings for public policy which can improve the adjustment of these new immigrants into their new society hence also moderate inter-group tensions. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, Israel, language proficiency, employment, earnings, motive for immigration, ulpan |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10214&r=int |
| By: | Heery, Declan; O’Donoghue, Cathal; Ó Fathartaigh, Mícheál |
| Abstract: | In 2015, under its Food Wise 2025 strategy, the Irish government set itself the ambitious target of increasing Ireland’s income from agri‐food exports to €19 billion within ten years, an 85 per cent increase. This paper analyses the structure of the two main food systems in Ireland; the dairy and beef industries, to examine value chain efficiencies in production needed to achieve such a level of growth. This paper, lays bare a reality characterised by significant inefficiencies and suggests innovations to increase the competitiveness of the industries internationally. Moreover, the paper recognises that the ability of stakeholders to add value to primary products in the two main Irish food systems is key to the success of the Food Wise strategy. The methodology that the paper employs to analyse the dynamics of the Irish dairy and beef systems is the Global Value Chain (GVC) methodology championed and developed by the Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness at Duke University. Through the disaggregation of the various segments that comprise the food systems, the GVC methodology allows for a multidimensional analysis, and for the identification of where rationalisation is required and where value may be added to primary products. The paper presents value chain maps for both the Irish dairy and beef systems to compare and contrast the structures, institutions, characteristics and effectiveness of the two value chains. The comparison illustrates cogently where rationalisation is needed and where value may be added. The paper finds that the Irish dairy system is more fragmented than the systems of other dairy‐producing countries and that at the farm and processing levels it still requires, despite much rationalisation since the 1980s, substantial consolidation may still be necessary. Regarding where value may be added to primary products, the paper finds that in the Irish dairy system there remains an over‐reliance on basic commodity sales and that innovation to open up entirely new markets, both in terms of products, such as in the area of sports nutrition, and geographically, such as middle‐eastern markets, with white cheese, is required. Regarding the Irish beef system it finds that while there is not as much scope for product diversification, innovation in branding and standardisation could produce a considerable dividend. Comparing value chain integration, the institutional structure built upon farmer owned cooperatives in the dairy sector allows for greater coordination and responsiveness to market opportunities. The beef value chain however is much less integrated, beset by cross‐value chain competition and low levels of trust, which has implications for future value generation and transformation across the chain. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iefi16:244470&r=int |
| By: | John F. Helliwell; Aneta Bonikowska; Hugh Shiplett |
| Abstract: | Strong versions of the set point hypothesis argue that subjective well-being measures reflect each individual’s own personality and that deviations from that set point will tend to be short-lived, rendering them poor measures of the quality of life. International migration provides an excellent test of this hypothesis, since life circumstances and average subjective well-being differ greatly among countries. Life satisfaction scores for immigrants to Canada from up to 100 source countries are compared to those in the countries where they were born. With or without various adjustments for selection effects, the average levels and distributions of life satisfaction scores among immigrants mimic those of other Canadians rather than those in their source countries and regions. This supports other evidence that subjective life evaluations, especially when averaged across individuals, are primarily driven by life circumstances, and respond correspondingly when those circumstances change. |
| JEL: | F22 I31 J61 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22601&r=int |
| By: | Yu Ri KIM; TODO Yasuyuki; SHIMAMOTO Daichi; Petr MATOUS |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impacts of informational and motivational seminars on export promotion targeting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the traditional apparel and textile clusters in Vietnam. To control for biases due to self-selection, we conducted a randomized controlled trial and invited randomly selected firms to participate in one-day seminars. Because only some of the invited firms participated in the seminars, we employ an instrumental variable approach in which dummies for random invitation are used as instruments for quantifying participation. We find that the seminars had no significant effect on most firms' preparation for, perception of, or engagement in exporting activity. However, the seminars encouraged large firms and firms with prior export experience, which possibly embody higher productivity and absorptive capacity, to (re-)start exporting. Our results suggest that productivity improvement is an effective means to encourage underdeveloped firms to export, whereas provision of information is effective for productive firms. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16078&r=int |
| By: | Orbie, Jan; Van den Putte, Lore |
| Abstract: | European Union (EU) trade policy has become increasingly contested and politicised. Citizens and politicians have become more and more concerned about the human rights and sustainable development implications of free trade. The European Commission in its 'Trade for All' Strategy has recognized the need for a more value-based trade policy. In the same vein, the EU has included a chapter on Trade and Sustainable Development in recent free trade agreements. However, there is still much uncertainty about the specifics of these legal commitments and about their implementation in practice. In this study, we aim to assess the labour rights commitments in the EU-Peru-Colombia agreement, with a specific focus on Peru and the agricultural sector. Based on an analytical framework that summarises the labour-related commitments of the sustainable development Title into three categories - upholding ILO Core Labour Standards, non-lowering domestic labour law, and promoting civil society dialogue - we conclude that Peru has failed to comply in a number of areas. We also make recommendations for the EU and civil society and suggestions for more profound and systematic research. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie zeigt, dass sowohl die Peruanische Regierung als auch die EU ihre Bemühungen verstärken könnten, die in ihren Handelsabkommen enthaltenen Verpflichtungen zum Thema Arbeitsnormen einzuhalten, und die Zivilgesellschaft in dieser Hinsicht eine wichtige Rolle spielen könnte. Die Europäische Handelspolitik ist zunehmend umstritten geworden. In Reaktion darauf hat die Europäische Union (EU) in ihren jüngsten Handelsabkommen ein Kapitel zur nachhaltigen Entwicklung aufgenommen, welches Bestimmungen zu den Themen Arbeitsund Umweltschutz enthält. Dies ist unter anderem der Fall für das EU-Peru-Kolumbien Handelsabkommen, das im Jahr 2013 in Kraft getreten ist. Während das Abkommen ein Kapitel zur nachhaltigen Entwicklung enthält und obwohl die Achtung von Arbeitsnormen in Peru allgemein recht gering ist, ist die Einhaltung der Verpflichtungen zu Arbeitsnormen durch Peru im Rahmen des Abkommens bislang nicht untersucht worden. Wir konzentrieren uns in unserer Untersuchung auf den landwirtschaftlichen Exportsektor im breiteren Kontext von Arbeitsnormen. [...] |
| Keywords: | Peru,labour,European Union,trade |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:58&r=int |
| By: | Swati Dhingra (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Abstract. This paper investigates the distributional gains from changes in agricultural world prices in developing economies. Agricultural markets in developing countries are rarely perfectly competitive. The market structure is characterized by a large number of small farmers who typically sell their produce to one or few big companies with significant monopsony or oligopsony power. We provide a flexible theoretical framework that captures this market structure and allow us to investigate how international trade affects the incomes of small farmers, agribusiness and intermediaries in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:712&r=int |
| By: | Pierre van der Eng |
| Abstract: | The creation of the Common Market in the European Community required electronics multinational Philips to integrate production operations across European countries. This effort had consequences for its Australian subsidiary. Rather than become a regional Philips hub with the support of its parent, as intended in the 1960s, it was absorbed by addressing changes in Australian trade policy and increased Japanese imports. The parent company’s establishment of regional supply centres in Europe and Asia left no role for the small Australian production facilities in the company’s global structure. Production and employment at Philips Australia were scaled back drastically during the 1970s. |
| Keywords: | European integration, Australia, electronics industry, Philips, institutional change, co-evolution |
| JEL: | L20 L63 M19 N47 N87 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:hpaper:047&r=int |
| By: | Tan, Yong |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the model of Antras et al.(2014) to disentangle the link between demand shocks and firm-level offshoring decisions. The model predicts that a positive demand shock increases the firm-level purchases of imported intermediates in both the extensive and intensive margins. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we examine the response of Chinese exporters to a quota removal on textile and clothing products, which is equivalent to a positive demand shock. The findings indicate that firms import more varieties and higher volumes of intermediates after the quota removal. The results are robust to different regression designs. |
| Keywords: | Intermediates Offshoring, Textile and Clothing, Demand Shock, Quota Removal |
| JEL: | F10 F14 L11 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73734&r=int |
| By: | Bjerre, Liv; Helbling, Marc; Römer, Friederike; Zobel, Malisa Zora |
| Abstract: | The Immigration Policies in Comparison (IMPIC) database includes data on migration policies for 33 OECD countries and the period 1980-2010. The dataset is presented in Helbling, Marc, Liv Bjerre, Friederike Römer and Malisa Zobel (2016) “Measuring Immigration Policies: The IMPIC-Database”, European Political Science (forthcoming). When using the data, please cite Helbling et al (2016) and, when appropriate, this discussion paper (Bjerre et al 2016). Please always include the version number in analyses using the dataset. This technical report provides additional information on the data collection (part 1), the codebook of the dataset (part 2), a glossary that defines the relevant terms and concepts that have been used (part 3) and the questionnaire that has been used to collect the data (part 4). |
| Keywords: | immigration,policy,measurement,aggregation |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbdiv:spvi2016201&r=int |
| By: | Oosterhaven, Jan; Bouwmeester, Maaike (Groningen University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use a non-linear programming approach to predict the wider interregional and interindustry impacts of natural gas flow disruptions. In the short run, economic actors attempt to continue their business-as-usual and follow established trade patters as closely as possible. In the model this is modelled by minimizing the information gain between the original pattern of economic transactions and the situation in which natural gas flows are disrupted. We analyze four scenarios that simulate Russian export stops of natural gas by means of a model calibrated on an international input-output table with six sectors and six regions. The simulations show that at the lower levels of aggregation considerable effects are found. At the aggregate level of the whole economy, however, the impacts of the four scenarios are negligible for Europe and only a little less so for Russia itself. Interestingly, the effects on the size of the economy, as measured by its GDP, are predominantly positive for the various European regions, but negative for Russia. The effects on the welfare of the populations involved, however, as measured by the size of domestic final demand, have an opposite sign; with predominantly negligible but negative effects for European regions, and very small positive effects for the Russian population. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gro:rugsom:16003-gem&r=int |
| By: | Agbahey, Johanes; Siddig, Khalid; Grethe, Harald |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2016–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamf16:243992&r=int |
| By: | Borjas, George J. (Harvard University); Monras, Joan (CEMFI, Madrid) |
| Abstract: | The continuing inflow of hundreds of thousands of refugees into many European countries has ignited much political controversy and raised questions that require a fuller understanding of the determinants and consequences of refugee supply shocks. This paper revisits four historical refugee shocks to document their labor market impact. Specifically, we examine: The influx of Marielitos into Miami in 1980; the influx of French repatriates and Algerian nationals into France at the end of the Algerian Independence War in 1962; the influx of Jewish émigrés into Israel after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s; and the exodus of refugees from the former Yugoslavia during the long series of Balkan wars between 1991 and 2001. We use a common empirical approach, derived from factor demand theory, and publicly available data to measure the impact of these shocks. Despite the differences in the political forces that motivated the various flows, and in economic conditions across receiving countries, the evidence reveals a common thread that confirms key insights of the canonical model of a competitive labor market: Exogenous supply shocks adversely affect the labor market opportunities of competing natives in the receiving countries, and often have a favorable impact on complementary workers. In short, refugee flows can have large distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | immigration, refugee supply shocks |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J2 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10212&r=int |
| By: | Constant, Amelie F. (UNU-MERIT, and IZA); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, and Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Findings: Diaspora economics is more than a new word for migration economics. It opens a new strand to political economy. Diaspora is perceived to be a well-defined group of migrants and their offspring with a joined cultural identity and ongoing identification with the country or culture of origin. This implies the potential to undermine the nation-state. Diasporas can shape policies in the host countries. Design/methodology/approach: Combine ethnicity, migration and international relations into a new thinking. Provide a typology of diaspora and a thorough evaluation of its role and the roles of the home and host countries. Originality/Value: Provide a new understanding of global human relations. |
| Keywords: | Diaspora economics, ethnicity, migration, nation-state |
| JEL: | F22 F24 F66 F68 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–08–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2016042&r=int |