|
on International Trade |
| By: | Yuan Zi (IHEID, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model to study the impact of trade costs on developing countries¡¯ industrialization when sequential production is networked internationally in global value chains (GVCs). In a two-country setting, a decrease in trade costs of intermediates is associated with the South moving up the value chain and both North and South experiencing welfare improvement due in part to non-linear wage responses. Extending the model to a multi-country setting, I show that reduced trade frictions lead South countries to join supply-chain networks due to wage differentials and low trade costs. This increases the North wage but may decrease the wages of southern nations already part of the network. Moreover, the Southern nations that join tend to be regionally clustered, producing a Factory-Asia like outcome. The model provides a first look at GVCs from the development angle, and raises several interesting policy concerns regarding GVC governance. |
| Keywords: | supply-chain networks, trade cost, industrialization, joining and moving up the value chain |
| JEL: | F10 F63 O19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:cteiwp:ctei-2014-06&r=int |
| By: | Tiziana Assenza (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Domenico Delli Gatti (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Jakob Grazzini (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Giorgio Ricchiuti |
| Abstract: | In his seminal paper, starting from the premise that productivity is heterogeneous across firms, Melitz (2003) nicely accounts for the stylized fact that the level of individual productivity is key in determining the capability of a firm to export. In this paper we build a model along Melitz’s lines to show that also financial capacity, captured by the level of individual net worth, affects the behaviour of firms on international markets. In our framework, in fact, the decision to export depends on both productivity and net worth, and both are heterogeneous across firms. We show that firms with low productivity may still be able to penetrate foreign markets provided they have enough net worth to incur the cost of exporting. However, even a really high net worth may not guarantee the presence in both domestic and foreign markets if the firm does not have a minimum level of productivity. Finally, we explore the effects of changes in transport costs, fixed costs for exporters and the financial constraints. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Net Worth; International trade; Heterogeneous firms. |
| JEL: | E44 F12 F14 F21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def042&r=int |
| By: | Mathilde MAUREL (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne CNRS - Université Paris 1); Hugo LAPEYRONIE (FERDI); Bogdan MEUNIER (FERDI) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze how a set of slow moving determinants affect trade between the EU on one hand, and CEECs (Central and Eastern European countries) and African countries on the other hand, over the period 2005-2012. We focus on two sets of slow moving determinants, doing business institutions and logistical infrastructure, as well as embassies and ambassadors, by controlling for many other possible time-invariant trade cost determinants. Trade is disentangled for three types of goods: primary goods, parts and components and capital goods. Methodologically, we first derive dyadic country-pair fixed effects and in a second stage we correlate fixed effects with a set of influential factors. In our analysis, (i) we identify the beneficial effects of soft and hard infrastructure; (ii) we compare the latter with the benefit of opening an embassy and also compute the extra trade that would follow a move towards a better score of the trade facilitation and doing business indicators; and (iii) we show that a huge part of the missing bilateral trade fixed effect of North African countries is accounted for by soft and hard infrastructure, and that diplomatic activity is also a powerful driver of regional integration. |
| JEL: | C33 F14 F15 F49 O52 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2796&r=int |
| By: | Mathilde MAUREL (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne CNRS - Université Paris 1); Hugo LAPEYRONIE (FERDI); Bogdan MEUNIER (FERDI) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze how a set of slow moving determinants affect trade between the EU on one hand, and CEECs (Central and Eastern European countries) and African countries on the other hand, over the period 2005-2012. We focus on two sets of slow moving determinants, doing business institutions and logistical infrastructure, as well as embassies and ambassadors, by controlling for many other possible time-invariant trade cost determinants. Trade is disentangled for three types of goods: primary goods, parts and components and capital goods. Methodologically, we first derive dyadic country-pair fixed effects and in a second stage we correlate fixed effects with a set of influential factors. In our analysis, (i) we identify the beneficial effects of soft and hard infrastructure; (ii) we compare the latter with the benefit of opening an embassy and also compute the extra trade that would follow a move towards a better score of the trade facilitation and doing business indicators; and (iii) we show that a huge part of the missing bilateral trade fixed effect of North African countries is accounted for by soft and hard infrastructure, and that diplomatic activity is also a powerful driver of regional integration. |
| JEL: | C33 F14 F15 F49 O52 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2799&r=int |
| By: | Salamat Ali |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines a connection between non-tariff measures (NTMs) and trade response at a micro level. It investigates the mechanism, drivers and speed of adjustment to a battery of sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade. It uses an administrative dataset of Pakistan’s mango-exporting firms at an eight-digit level of disaggregation and exploits a natural experiment in the identification strategy. The research finds the NTMs appear to have increased the volume of exports but through one specific channel and after some time lag. The intensive margins (IM) of trade have improved whereas the extensive margins (EM) have contracted. The increase in IM is, however, registered after a gap of four years and appears to be driven by larger quantities as well as higher prices. The contraction in the EM seems to operate mainly through a reduction in the number of customers in export markets. |
| Keywords: | Non-tariff measures, firms in agriculture, technical barriers to trade, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:16/02&r=int |
| By: | Cebreros Zurita Carlos Alfonso |
| Abstract: | I develop and estimate a model of export dynamics featuring self-discovery that accounts well for new exporter dynamics:(a) continuation rates that are increasing with tenure, and (b) growth rates of export sales that are decreasing with tenure. The option value generated by the acquisition of more information is key to understanding firm dynamics as the discovery stage lasts as long as this option value is positive. I use the model to study the impact of export promotion policies that temporarily subsidize the fixed costs of exporting. These policies can result in long-lived increases in aggregate trade, but their effectiveness crucially depends on the speed of learning. |
| Keywords: | Learning; Uncertainty; Firm dynamics; Dynamic export supply; Option value. |
| JEL: | C15 D21 D22 D83 F12 F14 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-08&r=int |
| By: | Murphy, Gavin; Siedschlag, Iulia |
| Abstract: | Financing constraints have been identified as an additional source of firm heterogeneity that affects export participation and export performance. This paper examines whether and to what extent financing constraints affect firms' exporting across different types of firms and industries. It uses comparable micro data from France, Germany, Italy and Spain and estimates the sensitivity of firms' extensive and intensive margins of exporting to financing constraints. The empirical results indicate that firms which were less constrained financially were more likely to export, while financing constraints did not affect the export intensity of existing exporters. It appears that financing constraints affect export participation via firms' productivity. The sensitivity of exporting to access to external financing appears to be most important for young, domestic-owned and firms in traditional industries. The sensitivity of the export propensity to financing constraints decreased with firm size. |
| Keywords: | data/exporters/Firm heterogeneity/Productivity |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp531&r=int |
| By: | Murphy, Gavin; Siedschlag, Iulia |
| Abstract: | Financing constraints have been identified as an additional source of firm heterogeneity that affects export participation and export performance. This paper examines whether and to what extent financing constraints affect firms' exporting across different types of firms and industries. It uses comparable micro data from France, Germany, Italy and Spain and estimates the sensitivity of firms' extensive and intensive margins of exporting to financing constraints. The empirical results indicate that firms which were less constrained financially were more likely to export, while financing constraints did not affect the export intensity of existing exporters. It appears that financing constraints affect export participation via firms' productivity. The sensitivity of exporting to access to external financing appears to be most important for young, domestic-owned and firms in traditional industries. The sensitivity of the export propensity to financing constraints decreased with firm size. |
| Keywords: | data/exporters/Firm heterogeneity/Productivity |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp530&r=int |
| By: | Acheampong, Theophilus; Omane-Achamfuor, Michael; Anang Tawiah, Nii |
| Abstract: | In December 2007, Ghana and the EU initialled the interim Economic Partnership Agreement (iEPA), which provides a framework for trade. This followed the near expiration of the Cotonou agreement, which had been in existence since 2000. Regional body ECOWAS gave their backing to the full EPA in July 2014 following a review of issues raised by Nigeria. Though the objectives of the EPA are simple with regard to increasing productive investments and job creation in Ghana and West Africa, as well intensifying and facilitating trade between Ghana (and the ECOWAS region) and the EU towards a win-win developmental relationship; we conclude that the attainment of these noble objectives cannot be attained without serious commitment to reforming the business environment especially the supply side constraints many businesses grapple with on a day to day basis. The EPA would, in effect, provide free access to the EU market of 500 million people for all products from Ghana thus providing a lot of scope for economies of scale and scope. It also conforms to meeting WTO rules, unlike the system operating under the Cotonou agreement; therefore, would save all parties from unnecessary legal challenges. |
| Keywords: | Economic Partnership Agreements, Trade, EU, Africa, Ghana |
| JEL: | F1 F15 F16 L5 |
| Date: | 2014–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66232&r=int |
| By: | Čede, Urška; Chiriacescu, Bogdan; Harasztosi, Péter; Lalinsky, Tibor; Meriküll, Jaanika |
| Abstract: | The literature shows that openness to trade improves long-term growth but also that it may increase exposure to high output volatility. In this vein, our paper investigates whether exporting and export diversification at the firm level have an effect on the output volatility of firms. We use large representative firm-level databases from Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia over the last boom-bust cycle in 2004-2012. The results confirm that exporting is related to higher volatility at the firm level. There is also evidence that this effect increased during the Great Recession due to the large negative shocks in export markets. In contrast to the literature and empirical findings for large or advanced countries we do not find a statistically significant and consistent mitigating effect from export diversification in the Central and Eastern European countries. In addition, exporting more products or serving more markets does not necessarily result in higher stability of firm sales. JEL Classification: F14, F43, O57 |
| Keywords: | business cycle, CEE, Central and Eastern Europe, export diversification, export share, volatility of sales |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161902&r=int |
| By: | Marianne Matthee; Neil Rankin; Tasha Naughtin Author-Name: Carli Bezuidenhout1 |
| Abstract: | Existing South African work on firm-level data has been limited by access to large datasets that track firms over time. This paper overcomes this by analysing a new dataset of the population of manufacturing firms that are matched to their export transactions. South African firm-level exporting is similar to the stylized facts of firm-level exporting found internationally. Moreover, heterogeneity that exists within exporting is evident. Not only do exporters differ in terms of the amount exported, but also in terms of the number of products and destinations they export too. These in turn are related to firm-level characteristics including productivity. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous firms, exports, productivity, firm-level data, multi-destination, multiproducts |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-038&r=int |
| By: | Juan Carluccio (University of Surrey (UNIS)); Denis Fougere (Observatoire sociologique du changement); Erwan Gautier (Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of international trade on firm-level wage bargaining using a unique administrative firm-level dataset for French manufacturing. Exports have a positive effect on the probability of signing firm-level wage agreements, while offshoring has no significant effect. Results are consistent with the predictions of rent-sharing models of the export wage-premium. |
| Keywords: | exports; offshoring; collective bargaining |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/412asd97908d29h7vip399st54&r=int |
| By: | Lainez, Christopher (School of Economics Drexel University); Matschke, Xenia (University of Trier); Yotov, Yoto (School of Economics Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | The United States introduced Federal Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) as part of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act to dampen the adverse impact of increased trade on workers. Applications to receive TAA require approval from the Department of Labor. Guided by the technical criteria used by the U.S. government in the official TAA certification process, we capitalize on a rich multi-dimensional panel dataset to quantify the effects of political influence on the TAA certification decision. We find that political factors such as party affiliation of the President, voting outcomes at the state level, and whether a petition was certified in an election year influence the TAA certification outcome. Those effects remain even when including a wide array of controls and a rich set of fixed effects. |
| Keywords: | trade adjustment assistance; political economy; trade protection |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2015–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2016_005&r=int |
| By: | Sugata Marjit (Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta); Biswajit Mandal (Department of Economics & Politics, Visva-Bharati University Santiniketan, India) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to propose a model where trade has a direct and positive impact on growth rate of two trading nations beyond the level effect. We use the idea of virtual trade in intermediates induced by non- overlapping time zones and show how trade can increase the equilibrium optimal rate of growth. In this structure the trade impact goes beyond the level effect and directly causes growth. Typically standard models of trade cannot generate an automatic growth impact. Virtual trade may allow production to continue for 24x7 in separated time zones such as between US and India and that can lead to higher growth for both countries. Later we extend the model to incorporate accumulation of skill which becomes necessary for sustaining steady state growth. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Time Zone, Growth |
| JEL: | F10 F43 |
| Date: | 2016–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:560&r=int |
| By: | Hubert Gabrisch; Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Johannes Pöschl; Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary The aim of this study is to analyse the state of the competitiveness of seven Western Balkan economies and to suggest policy recommendations in order to increase their capacity to compete. Most countries from the Western Balkans have a persistent current account deficit of about 10% of GDP which indicates their substantial lack of competitiveness. Also their goods export share makes only about 20% of GDP while it is around 70% for the new EU member states in Central Europe. Contrary to their northern neighbours, the Western Balkan countries have specialised in low and low-medium tech industries and have only little higher-tech products e.g. from the machinery and automotive or chemical industry to offer on the international markets. Several of these countries are excluded from international production networks. The quality of the institutions in the Western Balkans is weak but improving with further steps in the European integration process; the EU acts as an anchor of institutional stability. There are still considerable administrative and technical barriers to trade. Public transport infrastructure is more often than not in a very bad shape. Most of these countries are excluded from the international transport networks. Also the human capital could be improved. Unemployment is extremely high and large parts of the population are stuck in subsistence farming or are migrating. The labour market has problems to absorb the idle labour force. Financing is clearly a major restriction for an increase in much needed productive capacities. Real interest rates are high, the share of non-performing loans is large and credit growth is weak. A number of policy recommendations are made. Most of the countries need strong investment in transport infrastructure, both to connect internally as well as to connect across borders. Some also need substantial investment in their ailing energy infrastructure. Additional support for foreign direct investment could quickly generate new production capacities and transfer of technology. Given that most of the Western Balkan economies have either unilaterally adopted the euro or have pegged their currency to the euro, monetary and exchange rate policy is not available as a tool to foster competitiveness. An alternative option would be to support social partnership and a cooperative incomes policy that aims to orientate itself at full employment, productivity gains and inflation. For some of the more developed economies, investment into a dual system of vocational education could be costly but beneficial. Lower priced measures that in part could also be implemented more quickly include the following policies An administrative reform should aim at increasing the absorption capacities of EU support funds in order to identify and co-finance the most advantageous projects. A quick solution of the dragging issue of non-performing loans could cause a much needed improvement in credit activity. A measure that could be implemented in a budgetary neutral way is a fiscal devaluation, whereby an increase of the value added tax and a reduction of the employer’s social security contribution could have the same competitiveness improving effects as a nominal exchange rate devaluation. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, economic policy, non-performing loans, capital inflow, real exchange rate, production networks, trade in goods, trade in services, foreign direct investment, labour market, migration, infrastructure, dual education, fiscal devaluation, Western Balkans |
| JEL: | E24 E60 F10 F21 F22 F31 F32 H52 H54 I25 L14 O18 O24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:411&r=int |
| By: | Paul Gretton (EABER) |
| Abstract: | Effective economic reform agendas provide a means for promoting national economic growth, raising living standards and adapting to changes in trading conditions, new technologies and ways of working. Taking as a focus the Australia-China economic relationship, the GTAP model of the global economy is used to project the implications for Australia and China of preferential, unilateral and broader approaches to trade liberalisation, a broad agenda for reform across the services sector and financial market reform. The simulations show that reform strategies based on non-discriminatory trade liberalization and broadly-based concerted domestic reforms are likely to deliver substantive economic benefits and contribute to growth. Agendas that are restrictive, either through preferential deals between trading partners or through a narrow sectoral focus domestically are likely to constrain gains below levels that would otherwise be attainable. |
| JEL: | F1 F3 F4 O4 O5 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:macroe:25630&r=int |
| By: | Daniel Gay |
| Abstract: | Economic growth, environmental sustainability and human development in the Solomon Islands have lagged much of the Pacific region since independence in 1978. Trade contributes insufficiently to development, partly because of the dominance of the logging industry but also due to the lack of emphasis on building productive capacities with a view to economic transformation toward higher productivity activities. Targeted soft industrial policies may help address these shortcomings, in the form of sectoral prioritisation; linkages policies; joint government-donor support to build appropriate infrastructure; and the development of human resources in specific areas. Government institutional capacity will only be allowed to improve if policymakers are permitted true ownership over policies and if they are allowed to make mistakes. |
| Keywords: | Solomon Islands, productive capacity, trade, least developed countries, industrial policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F35 F63 O1 O2 O11 O14 O24 O25 O56 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:une:cpaper:031&r=int |
| By: | Raphael, Brun-Aguerre; Ana-Maria, Fuertes; Matthew, Greenwood-Nimmo |
| Abstract: | We analyse exchange rate pass-through into import prices for a large group of 33 emerging and developed economies from 1980Q1 to 2010Q4. Our error correction models permit asymmetric pass-through for currency appreciations and depreciations over three horizons of interest: on impact, in the short run and in the long run. We find that depreciations are typically passed-through more strongly than appreciations in the long-run, suggesting that exporters may exert a degree of long-run pricing power. This asymmetry is stronger in economies which are more import dependent but is moderated by freedom to trade and a positive output gap. Given that this pass-through asymmetry is welfare-reducing for consumers in the destination market, a key macroeconomic implication is that import-dependent economies, in particular, can benefit from trade liberalisation. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Asymmetry; Nonlinear ARDL Model; Random Coefficients Panel Data Model; Emerging Markets. |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F30 F31 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71764&r=int |
| By: | Yannick Fiedler (Centre de recherches internationales); Massimo Lafrate |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in food, beverages and tobacco, including primary agriculture and retail, from 2003 to 2014. It provides information on global, regional and - where possible - national trends in FDI flows in food, beverages and tobacco. When data are available, this study also provides more detailed insights into particular qualitative traits of FDI flows, such as whether FDI seems to be market- or resource-seeking, or in how far changes in sub-sector-specific investment could be linked to changes in consumer demand. Thus it contributes to the ongoing global debate on the relevance and characteristics of FDI in developing country agriculture. |
| Keywords: | foreign investments; foods; beverages; tobacco |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53gvesh9a58lq804hmvlk76n1l&r=int |
| By: | Paini, Dean; Mwebaze, Paul; Heersink, Daniel; Nielsen, John |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235415&r=int |
| By: | Huang, Jikun |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235331&r=int |
| By: | Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Mitra, Devashish (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | The various channels through which a reduction in the cost of offshoring can improve wages in a developed country are by now well understood. But does a similar reduction in the offshoring cost also benefit workers in the world's factories in developing countries? Using a parsimonious two-country model of offshoring we find very nuanced results. These include cases where wages monotonically improve or worsen as well as those where wages exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship in response to parametric reductions in the cost of offshoring. We identify qualitative conditions under which wages and welfare increase or decrease in the developing world as a result of a reduction in offshoring costs. Since global welfare always rises with an improvement in offshoring technology, we find that there is a role for a wage tax or a minimum wage in the developing country. We derive the optimal levels of such policies. |
| Keywords: | Wages; International Offshoring; Wage Tax; Minimum Wage |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F16 F66 O19 O24 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2016-011&r=int |
| By: | Hamanaka, Shintaro |
| Abstract: | One of the most important policy questions relating to the future impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the global and regional economy is whether other countries in the region, particularly China, will join the partnership. While several commentators have made some observations regarding the future prospects of TPP expansion, little scholarly analysis has been conducted. To go beyond the speculation of a certain country's accession to TPP, we first attempt to generalize the issue before moving on to a specific question. We conduct a comparative analysis of a large number of regional trade agreements for a better understanding of the parameters of RTAs that are critical for membership expansion. This general framework enables us to conduct a systematic examination of specific membership expansion cases, such as China's membership in TPP. The paper also proposes a necessary "accession practice" that truly facilitates new members' participation. |
| Keywords: | International economic integration, International trade, International agreements, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), Membership, Accession, Majority voting, Veto |
| JEL: | F15 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper606&r=int |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Francisco Carneiro |
| Abstract: | This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real GDP per capita growth. Based on 5-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980-2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant adverse effects on economic growth in countries with procyclical government spending; in countries where government spending is countercyclical terms of trade volatility has no significant effect on growth. Conditional on the mediating role of government spending cyclicality, the GDP share of domestic credit to the private sector has no significant effect on the relationship between growth and terms of trade volatility. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-36&r=int |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 9/2014 |
| Date: | 2014–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:910&r=int |
| By: | Swati Dhingra; Gianmarco Ottaviano; Thomas Sampson; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | For over two years, a CEP research team has been studying the likely impact on the living standards of UK households of a referendum vote to leave the European Union. The first of three reports summarised here focuses on the impact of 'Brexit' through changing trade patterns. |
| Keywords: | trade, Brexit, living standards, UK economy, EU Referendum |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:469&r=int |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 6/2014 |
| Date: | 2014–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:913&r=int |
| By: | JOAQUIM JOSÉ MARTINS GUILHOTO; DENISE IMORI |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:100&r=int |
| By: | Coxhead, Ian |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235265&r=int |
| By: | Anonymous |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236610&r=int |
| By: | Marina Azzimonti |
| Abstract: | I analyze the effects of political uncertainty on foreign direct investment flows to the US using a novel indicator, the partisan conflict index (PCI). Partisan conflict is relevant for the evolution of cross-border capital flows because the expected returns on investment projects are less predictable when the timing, size, and composition of fiscal policy is uncertain. The partisan conflict index tracks the evolution of political disagreement among policymakers as reported by the media. Using aggregate quarterly data from 1985 to 2015, I show that an innovation of the PCI is associated with a significant decline in FDI flows to the US. The magnitude of the effect is similar when disaggregated data from a panel of parent countries is considered instead. |
| JEL: | E62 F21 F3 H3 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22336&r=int |
| By: | John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | John Van Reenen summarises the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU. |
| Keywords: | EU Referendum, UK economy, UK politics, Brexit |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:477&r=int |
| By: | Jiayi Huang; Miguel Ramirez (Department of Economics, Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between exports and economic output for five major Asian economies using annual data in an expanded data set and employing unit root and cointegration analysis. It employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that treats all variables in the modified production function as potentially endogenous and then determines via weak exogeneity tests whether some of the key variables can be treated as exogenous (omitted from the system). Johansen cointegration tests find a positive long-run relationship between exports and economic output for the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Cointegration tests find a negative long-run relationship between exports and economic output for India. The Block Granger causality tests and impulse response functions for the Philippines and Singapore find stronger causality from exports to economic output rather than the reverse. Granger causality tests in level form also find significant causality from exports to economic output. No causality exists between exports and economic output in the case of India. Exports seem to promote economic growth in three of the four countries that have cointegrated data, which supports the exports-led growth hypothesis found in some of the extant literature. The paper does not find cointegration for China because the variables are integrated of different orders from I(0) to I(2). |
| Keywords: | Block Granger Causality Test, Export-led Growth Hypothesis, Johansen Cointegration Test, Modified Production Function, Pantula Procedure, Phillips-Perron Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Zivot-Andrews single-break unit root test. |
| JEL: | C22 F14 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tri:wpaper:1601&r=int |
| By: | Laszlo A. Koczy (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Keleti Faculty of Business and Management Óbuda University) |
| Abstract: | The possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union will have profound economic and political effects. Here we look at a particular aspect, the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. Since the Lisbon treaty the exit does not require new negotiations as the success of a voting initiative only depends on the number and total population of the supporting member states. Using the Shapley-Shubik power index we calculate the member states' powers with and without the United Kingdom and update earlier power forecasts using the Eurostat's latest population projections. There is a remarkably sharp relation between population size and the change in power: Brexit increases the largest members', while decreases the smallest ones' powers. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Council of the European Union, qualified majority voting, power index, a priori voting power, demographics |
| JEL: | C71 D72 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:1611&r=int |