nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2015‒08‒19
thirty-six papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis By Lewis, John; De Schryder, Selien
  2. The impact of antidumping on EU trade By Jan Baran
  3. The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products By Parra, Maria Dolores; Martínez Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Suárez Burguet, Celestino
  4. Trade Agreements and International Regulatory Cooperation in a Supply Chain World By Bernard Hoekman
  5. Spatial-Temporal Variations of Embodied Carbon Emission in Global Trade Flows: 41 Economies and 35 Sectors By Jing Tian; Hua Liao; Ce Wang
  6. Trade effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership By Elisa Borghi; Rodolfo Helg; Lucia Tajoli
  7. Regional trade and volatility in staple food markets in Africa By Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday
  8. The role of the technology and innovation gap in Polish trade relations. Empirical verification with the use of trade gravity approach By Tomasz Brodzicki; Katarzyna Sledziewska
  9. Does Foreign Entry Spur Innovation? By Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Svejnar, Jan; Terrell, Katherine
  10. Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China By Carlos Casanova Allende; Le Xia; Romina Ferreira
  11. Former Foreign Affiliates: Cast Out and Outperformed? By Beata Javorcik; Steven Poelhekke
  12. Economic Impact of Investment Agreements By Christian Bellak
  13. Share of exports to low-income countries, productivity, and innovation: A replication study with firm-level data from six European countries By Wagner, Joachim
  14. Liquidity-Driven FDI By Rahul Mukherjee; Linda Tesar; Ron Alquist
  15. Adjusting to a New Price Environment: Implications for the Farm and Trade Programs By Westhoff, Pat
  16. Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): Logistics Services By Kazuhiro Sugie; Massimo Geloso Grosso; Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Sébastien Miroudot; Frederic Gonzales; Dorothée Rouzet
  17. Trade, FDI, Migration, and the Place Premium: Mexico and the United States By Gandolfi, Davide; Halliday, Timothy J.; Robertson, Raymond
  18. EPAs: A Plan 'A+' By Patrick Messerlin; Claire Delpeuch
  19. International Trade and Migration: Why Do Migrants Choose Small Countries? By Fedotenkov, Igor
  20. Regulation, trade and economic growth By Silberberger, Magdalena
  21. The Space of Gravity: Spatial Filtering Estimation of a Gravity Model for Bilateral Trade By R. Patuelli; G. J. Linders; R. Metulini; D. A. Griffith
  22. Who's Getting Globalized? The Size and Implications of Intra-national Trade Costs By David Atkin; Dave Donaldson
  23. The Employment Effects of GVCs on Asian Countries and the Phenomenon of Value-Added Erosion By Xiao JIANG; Jose CARABALLO
  24. EU Anti-Circumvention Rules: Do They Beat the Alternative? By Edwin Vermulst
  25. The impact of Chinese competition on Africa’s manufacturing By Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY; Ping HUA
  26. Export Exposure and Gender Specific Work Participation in Indonesia By Tatyana Chesnokova; Jesmin Rupa; Nicholas Sim
  27. Transportation From a Shippers Perspective By Mack, Dan
  28. Global Perspectives on the Global Bioeconomy By Philp, Jim
  29. Labour Market Effects of International Trade When Mobility is Costly By Damoun Ashournia
  30. Markup heterogeneity, export status ans the establishment of the euro By Sarah Guillou; Lionel Nesta
  31. International Trade and Private Standards: Discussions in the WTO and initiatives outside the WTO (Japanese) By NAIKI Yoshiko
  32. Brazil’s Response to Lower Commodity Prices By Cordonnier, Michael
  33. EU-Russia trading relations: the challenges of a new gas architecture By Catherine Locatelli
  34. Foreign Tourists and Productivity of the Accommodation Industry (Japanese) By MORIKAWA Masayuki
  35. Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies By Frédéric Branger; Philippe Quirion
  36. Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices By Aasim M. Husain; Rabah Arezki; Peter Breuer; Vikram Haksar; Thomas Helbling; Paulo A. Medas; Martin Sommer

  1. By: Lewis, John (Bank of England); De Schryder, Selien (University of Ghent)
    Abstract: Using a panel model of goods exports for 16 OECD economies, we quantify advanced economies’ export performance since the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ (GTC). We go beyond the traditional determinants of trade to include a variable measuring shifts in the sectoral composition of world trade and split the real exchange rate into its constituent parts to allow for a differential response to unit labour costs and the nominal exchange rate. We find that, a pre-crisis model based on average coefficients explains the recovery in aggregate exports since the GTC well. But at the country level, we do find substantial cross-country variation in export performance.
    Keywords: International trade; forecasting; cross-country panel
    JEL: C23 F14 F17
    Date: 2015–07–24
  2. By: Jan Baran
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of antidumping on EU trade. Compared to previous studies, this paper moves the time horizon of analysis forward, covering the period from 1992 to 2010. Information on antidumping investigations is taken from relatively new Global Antidumping Database. The theoretical model suggests that both import and export flows should be affected. The econometric investigation shows that the use of antidumping significantly distorts imports. A strong and long-lasting effect of trade destruction is identified for AD cases ending with the imposition of final protection. For AD cases withdrawn by applicants or rejected by AD authority, the trade destruction effect is short-lived, and is limited to the duration of provisional measures. The introduction of AD protection also causes an increase in imports from countries not covered by the AD investigation (the trade diversion effect). The results obtained from the model augmented with leading variables reveal that EU antidumping is used against aggressive exporters that rapidly increase their sales on the European market. There is no convincing evidence of antidumping having an impact on EU exports. Although there is a decline in exports, it cannot be associated with antidumping as it starts before the initiation of AD.
    Keywords: antidumping, trade policy, international trade, trade destruction, trade diversion
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2015–07
  3. By: Parra, Maria Dolores; Martínez Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Suárez Burguet, Celestino
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15
    Keywords: Negocis, Finances internacionals, Integració econòmica, 339 - Comerç. Relacions econòmiques internacionals. Economia mundial. Màrqueting,
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Bernard Hoekman
    Abstract: Many of the policies that affect international supply chains and associated trade flows are regulatory in nature. Governments generally do not pursue domestic regulation or design trade agreements with a view to support the “trade as production” model by reducing regulatory differences that have the effect of impeding trade. This paper proposes several mechanisms to help make policy more supportive of regulatory cooperation initiatives that are aimed at reducing excess costs that negatively affect supply chain trade and investments, and that can be incorporated into trade agreements. While the analysis and suggestions are general, specific context and examples are provided by recent trade agreements and regulatory cooperation initiatives involving Canada, the EU and the US.
    Keywords: Supply chains, trade agreements, regulation, CETA, TTIP
    JEL: F13 F50 K20
    Date: 2015–01
  5. By: Jing Tian; Hua Liao; Ce Wang
    Abstract: The spatial-temporal variations of embodied carbon emissions in international trade at global scope are still unclear. This paper studies the variations of outflows and inflows of embodied carbon emissions at 35-disaggregated sectors level of 41 countries and regions, and an integrated world input-output model is employed. It also examines what would happen if there were not international trade flows in China, USA and Finland, the representatives of three different levels of the global balance of embodied carbon. We find that: (1) Embodied carbon in global trade increases at about 3% per year since 1995 World Trade Organization founded, and East Asia tends to burden more from the net increase of the balance of embodied carbon. (2) China¡¯s export has the largest and increasing outflow of carbon burden, USA's import the largest and increasing inflow of carbon burden, and Finland¡¯s export and import have the decreasing carbon burden. (3) The global trade structure tends to be not so much carbon-intensive. BRIIAT (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Australia and Turkey) has the largest embodied carbon intensity in export (about 7.35 kg/$) while NAFTA (the United States, Canada and Mexico) the largest embodied carbon intensity in import (about 10.32 kg/$). (4) There existed some inclination of embodied carbon flows including neighbors-centered outflows and country-centered inflows.
    Keywords: Embodied carbon flow, International trade, Spatial-temporal variations, Input-output analysis
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2014–09–16
  6. By: Elisa Borghi; Rodolfo Helg; Lucia Tajoli
    Abstract: In this paper we estimate the trade effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership by means of a gravity model. Even if making some assumptions related to the specificity of this trade agreement, our results are in line with the existing studies, implying unambiguously that a significant increase in trade is expected to follow a positive conclusion of the negotiation. Furthermore, the impact of the agreement increases significantly as the depth and the scope of the agreement grows. The results also show that there is a small but significant trade diversion effect, meaning that the agreement between EU and the US could produce a small reduction in trade with other areas. But given the much smaller coefficient of trade diversion compared to the trade creation effect, the expected net effect on trade remains strongly positive.
    Date: 2014–12
  7. By: Badiane, Ousmane; Odjo, Sunday
    Abstract: This paper deals with the role of regional trade in fostering the resilience of domestic food markets. Using country production and trade data from FAOSTAT database, a series of simple indicators are calculated that shed light on the potential for domestic markets stabilization through trade among African countries within Regional Economic Communities, including the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A regional, economy-wide multimarket model is then used to simulate changes in current productivity levels and trade costs. The findings reveal that it is possible to significantly boost the pace of regional trade expansion and thus its contribution to creating more resilient domestic food markets through modest reduction in the overall cost of trading, a similarly modest increase in crop yields, or the removal of barriers to trans-border trade.
    Keywords: Production volatility, cross-border trade, domestic food market stabilization, regional integration, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, F14, F17, Q17, Q18,
    Date: 2015–06
  8. By: Tomasz Brodzicki (University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics; Institute for Development); Katarzyna Sledziewska (University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The technology gap theory as advocated by Posner (1961) described an advantage enjoyed by a country that introduces new goods into a market, gaining an initial edge and establishing its initial exporter status. The nexus between technology and innovation gap and trade is however much more complex. The goal of this paper is to investigate the actual role of technology and innovation gap in explaining intensity of bilateral trade flows of Poland with its trade partners at the general (country level) with the use of trade gravity approach. The analysis is carried out for 234 trade partners of Poland in the period 1999-2013. Technology gap is measured by TFP and relative patenting performance controlling for quality of institutions as well as technology and innovation indices of Global Competitiveness Report by the WEF (2014). In order to obtain unbiased results we utilize semi-mixed effects model using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator.
    Keywords: technology, gap trade gravity, semi-mixed effect panel model
    JEL: C23 F10 F14 F15
    Date: 2015–08
  9. By: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Svejnar, Jan; Terrell, Katherine
    Abstract: Our estimates, based on large firm-level and industry-level data sets from eighteen countries, suggest that FDI and trade have strong positive spillover effects on product and technology innovation by domestic firms in emerging markets. The FDI effect is more pronounced for firms from advanced economies. Moreover, our results indicate that the spillover effects can be detected with micro data at the firm-level, but that using linkage variables computed from input-output tables at the industry level yields much weaker, and usually insignificant, estimated effects. These patterns are consistent with spillover effects being rather proximate and localized.
    Keywords: emerging markets; FDI; foreign competition; horizontal and vertical linkages; innovation; spillovers
    JEL: F23 M16 O16 P23
    Date: 2015–08
  10. By: Carlos Casanova Allende; Le Xia; Romina Ferreira
    Abstract: In this paper we deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand.
    Keywords: Asia , Economic Analysis , Latin America , Research , Working Paper
    JEL: D51 F02 F14
    Date: 2015–08
  11. By: Beata Javorcik; Steven Poelhekke
    Abstract: The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To establish a causal effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching. We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a decline in output, markups as well as export and import intensity. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent.
    JEL: F21 F23
    Date: 2015–06–16
  12. By: Christian Bellak (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: Based on a thorough analysis of theoretical arguments, this meta-analysis does not find a genuine empirical effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment after correcting for publication selection bias.
    Keywords: bilateral investment treaty (BIT), foreign direct investment (FDI), policy evaluation
    JEL: C83 K33 F21
    Date: 2015–08
  13. By: Wagner, Joachim (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany, Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS), & Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden.)
    Abstract: Crinò and Epifani (2012) report and discuss two empirical regularities they find in a representative sample of Italian manufacturing firms. First, there is a negative correlation between firms’ productivity and their export share to low-income destinations. Second, there is a negative correlation between firms’ innovation activity and their export share to low-income destinations. This note uses recently available comparable high quality firm level data for six European countries (including Italy) and similarly specified empirical models in an attempt to replicate these results. Replication failed completely. The link found between the share of exports to low-income countries and either productivity or R&D intensity is never in line with the results from Crinò and Epifani (2012).
    Keywords: exports; low-income destinations; productivity; innovation; EFIGE data
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2015–07–29
  14. By: Rahul Mukherjee (Graduate Institute); Linda Tesar (University of Michigan); Ron Alquist (Kings Peak Asset Management)
    Abstract: We develop a model of foreign direct investment (FDI) in which financially liquid foreign firms acquire liquidity-constrained target firms. Using a large dataset of emerging-market acquisitions, we find evidence supporting three central predictions of the model: (i) firms in external finance dependent and intangible sectors are more likely to be targets of foreign acquisitions; (ii) these targets have ownership structures with larger foreign stakes; (iii) these effects are most prominent in countries with low levels of financial development. The regression evidence indicates that liquidity is at least as economically important as technology- or trade-related motives for FDI in emerging-market economies.
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Westhoff, Pat
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  16. By: Kazuhiro Sugie; Massimo Geloso Grosso; Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Sébastien Miroudot; Frederic Gonzales; Dorothée Rouzet
    Abstract: This paper presents the services trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) for logistics services. The STRIs are composite indices taking values between zero and one, zero representing an open market and one a market completely closed to foreign services providers. The indices are calculated for 40 countries, the 34 OECD members and Brazil, the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and South Africa. The STRIs capture de jure restrictions. This report presents the first vintage of indicators for logistics services and captures regulations in force in 2014. The scores range from 0.08 to 1 for cargo-handling services, 0.04 to 1 for storage and warehouse services, 0.02 to 0.58 for freight transport agency services and 0.03 to 1 for customs brokerage services. It is observed that the regulatory profile differs across countries. In cargo-handling and storage and warehouse services, one country reserves all services provision to a statutory monopoly while another country reserves cargo-handling to a monopoly at port. Freight transport agency has the lowest average score among four subsectors while restrictions on foreign entry, restrictions on the movement of people and regulatory transparency significantly contribute to the results. One country is completely closed to foreign participation in customs brokerage services. The paper presents the list of measures included in the indices, the scoring and weighting system for calculating the indices and an analysis of the results.
    Keywords: logistics services, services trade, services trade restrictions, regulation
    JEL: F13 F14 K33 L87 L89 L91
    Date: 2015–08–04
  17. By: Gandolfi, Davide (Macalester College, Minnesota); Halliday, Timothy J. (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Robertson, Raymond (Macalester College, Minnesota)
    Abstract: Large wage differences between countries ("place premiums") are well documented. Theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased migration, capital flows, and commercial integration. All three have increased between the United States and Mexico over the last 25 years. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between these countries during the period 1988 and 2011. We match survey and census data from Mexico and the United States to estimate the change in wage differentials for observationally identical workers over time. We find very little evidence of convergence. What evidence we do find is most likely due to factors unrelated to US-Mexico integration. While migration, trade, and FDI may reduce the US-Mexico wage differential, these effects are small when compared to the overall wage gap.
    Keywords: migration, labor-market integration, factor price equalization
    JEL: F15 F16 J31 F22
    Date: 2015–07
  18. By: Patrick Messerlin (GEM - Groupe d'économie mondiale - Sciences Po); Claire Delpeuch (IEP Paris - Sciences Po Paris - Institut d'études politiques de Paris)
    Abstract: The ACPs should take an initiative--a 'Plan A+'. The note explores what could be envisaged in the Doha Round context. The ACP could offer a better access to their markets to the non-EU WTO Members for being allowed by these countries to limit the forthcoming preferential liberalization towards the EU. An attractive, mutually beneficial, Doha-consistent ACP offer would consist in the ACPs cutting substantially their bound tariffs, and modestly their applied tariffs. As bound tariff cuts substantially reduce the current huge uncertainty in trading with the ACPs, they will generate new trade opportunities, more diversified ACP economies, and better regional trade agreements between the ACPs willing to do so. In short, they will deliver a much more progressive and balanced liberalization of the ACP economies than the one envisaged by the current EPAs. Such an offer is attractive to non-EU WTO Members--from China to the US. These countries are unlikely to be pleased by ACP markets being open to EU firms while remaining closed to their own firms. The note also explores ways for the ACP countries to conclude 'Interim Agreements' with the EU in 2007--without preempting an attractive, Doha-consistent solution by hasty decisions taken in the EPA context.
    Date: 2014–04–03
  19. By: Fedotenkov, Igor
    Abstract: This paper analyses the link between migration and sizes of countries. It explains why larger countries (in terms of population) have lower shares of migrants in their populations. First, the data is analysed; next, a macroeconomic model with international trade and migration, explaining the stylised facts, is developed. The model includes country size, which gives rise to cheaper country-specific goods produced in a large country relative to the goods produced in a smaller country. Higher wages in the small country spur immigration to it.
    Keywords: Country size, migration, international trade, population
    JEL: F16 F22
    Date: 2015–05–25
  20. By: Silberberger, Magdalena
    Abstract: The role of regulatory quality as one of the so-called deep determinants of growth has emerged as an important issue in economic research in the past 20 years. The positive or negative growth effects of a country´s regulatory framework are amplified by economic integration, which makes factors and producers more mobile and enables them to avoid burdensome regulation. Therefore, the two potential determinants to growth might be interlinked. So far there is very little empirical evidence on the impact of the regulatory framework in an integrated economy on growth. We deal with the most common problems in estimating growth equations by using internal instruments to identify a causal relationship between regulation and growth in the presence of international trade and find evidence that both regulation and trade have a significant positive influence on growth, with the effect of regulation being especially pronounced for countries that have worse regulatory quality and for middle-income countries.
    Keywords: institution,integration,regulation,openness,trade,growth
    JEL: F11 F43
    Date: 2015
  21. By: R. Patuelli; G. J. Linders; R. Metulini; D. A. Griffith
    Abstract: Bilateral trade flows traditionally have been analysed by means of the spatial interaction gravity model. Still, (auto)correlation of trade flows has only recently received attention in the literature. This paper takes up this thread of emerging literature, and shows that spatial filtering (SF) techniques can take into account the autocorrelation in trade flows. Furthermore, we show that the use of origin and destination specific spatial filters goes a long way in correcting for omitted variable bias in an otherwise standard empirical gravity equation. For a cross-section of bilateral trade flows, we compare an SF approach to two benchmark specifications that are consistent with theoretically derived gravity. The results are relevant for a number of reasons. First, we correct for autocorrelation in the residuals. Second, we suggest that the empirical gravity equation can still be considered in applied work, despite the theoretical arguments for its misspecification due to omitted multilateral resistance terms. Third, if we include SF variables, we can still resort to any desired estimator, such as OLS, Poisson or negative binomial regression. Finally, interpreting endogeneity bias as autocorrelation in regressor variables and residuals allows for a more general specification of the gravity equation than the relatively restricted theoretical gravity equation. In particular, we can include additional country-specific push and pull variables, besides GDP (e.g., land area, landlockedness, and per capita GDP). A final analysis provides autocorrelation diagnostics according to different candidate indicators.
    JEL: C14 C21 F10
    Date: 2015–08
  22. By: David Atkin; Dave Donaldson
    Abstract: How large are the intra-national trade costs that separate consumers in remote locations of developing countries from global markets? What do those barriers imply for the intra-national incidence of the gains from falling international trade barriers? We develop a new methodology for answering these questions and apply it to newly collected CPI micro-data from Ethiopia and Nigeria (as well as to the US). In order to overcome three well-known challenges that arise when using price gaps to estimate trade costs, we: (i) work exclusively with a sample of goods that are identified at the barcode-level (to mitigate bias due to unobserved quality differences over space); (ii) collect novel data on the origin location of each product in our sample (to focus only on the pairs of locations that actually identify trade costs); and (iii) use estimates of cost pass-through to correct for mark-ups that potentially vary over space (to extract trade costs from price variation in an environment with potentially oligopolistic intermediaries). Without these corrections, we find that our estimates of the cost of distance would be biased downwards by a factor of approximately four. Our preferred estimates imply that the effect of log distance on trade costs within Ethiopia or Nigeria is four to five times larger than in the US. We also use our pass-through estimates to calculate the incidence of surplus increases due to falling world prices. We find that intermediaries capture the majority of the surplus, and that their share is even higher in distant locations, suggesting that remote consumers see only a small part of the gains from falling international trade barriers.
    JEL: F1 O1
    Date: 2015–07
  23. By: Xiao JIANG (Denison University, Granville); Jose CARABALLO (University of Puerto Rico at Cayey)
    Abstract: This paper first conducts a multi-regional input-output analysis to estimate the employment outcomes of global value chain (GVC) participation in the form of trading intermediates inputs for the six Asian economies included in the World Input-Output Database. This paper then tries to study the phenomenon of “value-added erosion”, characterised by the decline of the sectoral shares of domestic value-added in a country’s exports as the country becomes more integrated into GVCs. The variables of interest, namely, the degree of value-added erosion, the share of domestic intermediates in exports, and the amount of foreign high-skilled labour embodied in a country’s exports, were all estimated using the multi-regional input-output model. Using these results as well as other control variables, we conduct a panel data co-integration analysis to explain and assess the likelihood of value-added erosion and its possible determinants. The injection of foreign highskilled labour was found to be an important factor in a country’s sectoral decline of domestic value-added share while participating in GVCs.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains, Employment, Value-added, Asia
    JEL: D57 C23
    Date: 2015–08
  24. By: Edwin Vermulst
    Abstract: This article discusses EU law and practice with regard to tackling circumvention of trade defence instruments, notably anti-dumping measures. The author considers that, while strong legal arguments can be made that anti-circumvention rules are WTO-illegal, as a practical matter transparent and predictable anti-circumvention rules are to be preferred over vague and multi-interpretable non-preferential origin rules that vary from country to country. Furthermore, the many findings of transhipment in EU anti-circumvention investigations show that circumvention may constitute a real problem which warrants quick and effective relief. Therefore, the article suggests that the way forward is to agree on detailed anti-circumvention rules within the WTO with focus on further improvements in transparency and predictability.
    Keywords: Circumvention, trade remedies, trade defence instruments, dumping, anti-dumping measures, rules of origin
    Date: 2015–07
  25. By: Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY (University of Auvergne); Ping HUA (FERDI)
    Abstract: In this paper, the impact of Chinese competition on Africa’s manufacturing value added is analyzed through a model of manufacturing. Using panel data on 44 African countries covering the period 2000 to 2013, and controlling for the usual determinants of industrialization – such as the size of the domestic market, the quality of infrastructure and governance – we find that exports of manufactured goods by China and other countries to African countries mainly exert a negative effect on African manufacturing, while a moderate real appreciation of African currencies vis-à-vis the renminbi positively influences manufacturing value added, probably due to the reduced cost of imported machine and transport equipment from China (which accounted for 36% of total African imports from China in 2013) and to the reduced price of imported consumption goods increasing the remuneration of poor workers and therefore improving their productivity. However, a strong real appreciation (of more than 33%) instead exerts a negative effect on African’s manufacturing, as traditional theory predicts.
    Keywords: manufacturing, China, Africa, real exchange rates
    JEL: E60 L60 O55
    Date: 2015–07
  26. By: Tatyana Chesnokova; Jesmin Rupa; Nicholas Sim (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: The paper examines if exports have unequal influence on the work decisions of men and women using household panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We construct a novel measure – the export exposure index – which allows us to estimate the relationship between exports and the work decisions of individuals even after controlling for household and province-year fixed effects. Our regression analysis shows that an increase in exports does not have a statistically significant effect on men, but encourages women to allocate time away from paid employment towards unpaid house or family work. These results are consistent with our simple theoretical model which predicts that the relative increase in spousal income (following an increase in export exposure) strengthens females' comparative advantage in unpaid housework and allows them to devote more time to home production.
    Keywords: Exports, Gender, Labor Force Participation.
    JEL: O12
    Date: 2015–07
  27. By: Mack, Dan
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  28. By: Philp, Jim
    Keywords: International Development, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics, Public Economics,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  29. By: Damoun Ashournia
    Abstract: I build and estimate a dynamic structural model of sectoral choices with heterogeneous workers accumulating human capital that is imperfectly transferable across sectors. Utility costs of switching sectors provides an additional barrier to mobility. Estimating the utility costs by Simulated Minimum Distance on administrative data covering the population of Danish workers and firms, costs are found to be in the range of 10% to 18% of average annual wages. By conducting counterfactual policy experiments, it is shown that the both the imperfect transferability of human capital and the utility costs are important for explaining the slow adjustment of the labour market following shocks to the economy.
    Keywords: Globalisation, Adjustment costs, Worker heterogeneity
    JEL: E24 F13 F16
    Date: 2015–07–14
  30. By: Sarah Guillou (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Lionel Nesta (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of the establishment of the euro on the markups of French manufacturing firms. Merging firm-level census data with customs data, we estimate time-varying firm-specific markups and distinguish between eurozone exporters from other firms between 1995 and 2007. We find that the establishment of the euro has had a pronounced pro-competitive impact by reducing firm markups by 14 percentage points. By reducing export costs, the euro represented an opportunity for eurozone exporters to increase their margins relative to other firms. Quantile regressions show that the euro has led to a reduction in the variance of markups.
    Date: 2015–01
  31. By: NAIKI Yoshiko
    Abstract: Private standards have emerged and proliferated in various fields, such as food, forestry, minerals, and services. The proliferation of private standards has been positively perceived as a new governance mode by private actors, addressing social, environmental, and ethical issues with which state governments have not fully dealt. However, the increase and fragmentation of private standards raise several problems. For instance, consumers may be confused with multiple private standard systems and do not understand their differences. Producers may not understand which standard is more suitable for their own production and business. What is worse, producers may choose to be certified by a weaker standard system because of loose monitoring procedures. This paper explores varied responses to mitigate such negative consequences from the fragmentation of private standards. This paper first looks at how private standards have been addressed in the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Committee of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Then, it examines three other initiatives and approaches outside the WTO, dealing with the increase of private standards: (1) the ISEAL Alliance's Codes for defining credible standards; (2) attempts to examine market impacts and effectiveness of private standards; and (3) the International Trade Centre's "Standards Map" database. This paper concludes by pointing out important topics to be addressed in future research.
    Date: 2015–07
  32. By: Cordonnier, Michael
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  33. By: Catherine Locatelli (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier)
    Abstract: Gas security is a key factor in the European Union's energy policy. Contractual relations based on long-term contracts during the 1970s and 1980s led to relative stability in energy trade between the EU and its gas suppliers. But since the mid-1990s, the process of opening up the EU's gas industries to competition and the desire to create a single gas market has led to an in-depth reorganization of the sector. The EU now intends to redefine the way in which it manages its relations with its main suppliers, such as Russia, by attempting to impose a model based on competition, unbundling of network industries and privatization. Russia does not intend to implement this "EU model" in its gas sector, despite the big changes taking place in its domestic market. An approach based on the preferential use of state instruments conflicts with the multilateralism and principles of competition upheld by the EU. The EU's normative power is thus in contradiction with the institutional environment of the Russian energy sector. It is therefore unlikely that energy relations between the EU and Russia will be structured solely on standards stemming from international rules and institutions.
    Date: 2015–04
  34. By: MORIKAWA Masayuki
    Abstract: Services have distinct characteristics of simultaneous production and consumption. As a result, capacity utilization is an important index in considering the productivity of the service industries. This paper analyzes quantitatively the effect of foreign tourists on the occupancy rate of the accommodation industry. The major findings of the analysis are as follows. 1) Recent depreciation of the yen has contributed greatly to the increase in the number of visitors from overseas. 2) Increase in the visitors from foreign countries has a positive impact on the occupancy rate of accommodation facilities through temporal smoothing of demand. 3) Solely from this demand smoothing effect, the total factor productivity (TFP) of the accommodation industry has improved by around one percentage point. These results suggest that policies to increase the number of visitors from foreign countries are effective for improving service sector productivity, as well as boosting external demand.
    Date: 2015–08
  35. By: Frédéric Branger (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CNRS, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS)
    Abstract: The efficiency of unilateral climate policies may be hampered by carbon leakage and competitiveness losses. A widely discussed policy option to reduce leakage and protect competitiveness of heavy industries is to impose border carbon adjustments (BCAs). The estimation of carbon leakage as well as the assessment of different policy options led to a substantial body of literature in energy-economic modeling. In order to give a quantitative overview on the most recent research of the topic, we conduct a meta-analysis on 25 studies, altogether providing 310 estimates of carbon leakage ratio according to different assumptions and models. The typical range of carbon leakage estimates are from 5% to 25% (mean 14%) without policy and from −5% to 15% (mean 6%) with BCAs. A meta-regression analysis is performed to further investigate the impact of different assumptions on the leakage estimates. The decrease of the leakage ratio with the size of the coalition is confirmed and quantified. Among the BCA options, the extension of BCAs to all sectors and the inclusion of export rebates are the most efficient features in the meta-regression model to reduce the leakage ratio. All other parameters being constant, BCAs reduce leakage ratio by 6 percentage points.
    Date: 2014
  36. By: Aasim M. Husain; Rabah Arezki; Peter Breuer; Vikram Haksar; Thomas Helbling; Paulo A. Medas; Martin Sommer
    Abstract: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
    Date: 2015–07–14

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