nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2015‒08‒01
39 papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Trade and FDI Liberalization in Multiple Oligopolies By Kenji Fujiwara
  2. Regional Trade Agreement, Global Trade Implications: EU-Mercosur Agricultural Trade Liberalization By Heerman, Kari E.R.; Riche, Stephanie M.
  3. The GATT/WTO Trade Effect 20 Years Later: A Critical Review and New Insights By Grant, Jason H.; Boys, Kathryn A.
  4. Estimating the Trade Duration of Kazakhstan’s Wheat Exports By Imamverdiyev, Nizami; Anders, Sven; Glauben, Thomas; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Prehn, Sören
  5. Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of the East African Community Regional Trade Agreement: A Gravity Model Analysis By Isaac, Shinyekwa; Lawrence, Othieno
  6. Follow the value added: bilateral gross export accounting By Alessandro Borin; Michele Mancini
  7. Terms of Trade Volatility and Persistence to Shocks in the United States By Asgari, Mahdi; Reed, Michael
  8. Product Complexity, Quality of Institutions and the Pro-Trade Effect of Immigrants By Anthony Briant; Pierre-Philippe Combes; Miren Lafourcade
  9. An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between the Quality of Food and the Direction of Trade By Steinbach, Sandro
  10. Trading processing for goods:a different view from the past on Italian trade flows? By Ludovico Bracci; Silvia Fabiani; Alberto Felettigh
  11. Global Implications of Prices on International Agriculture Trade & Policies By Carver, Jason
  12. RCEP – Thailand Trade Creation and Trade Diversion: Evidence and Analysis By Sattayanuwat, Wanasin
  13. Impediments to wheat export from Ukraine By Kulyk, Iryna; Herzfeld, Thomas
  14. Market Integration and Price Leadership in the Low Quality Rice Export Market By Pornsawang, Chotima; Rejesus, Roderick; Mohanty, Samarendu
  15. Non-Tariff Measures and Standards in Trade and Global Value Chains By Beghin, John C; Maertens, Miet; Swinnen, Johan
  16. Truly Preferential Treatment? Reconsidering the Generalized System of (Trade) Preferences By Sharma, Anupa; Grant, Jason; Boys, Kathryn
  17. A Coasian Model of International Production Chains By Russell Hillberry; Thibault Fally
  18. Adjusting to a New Price Environment: Implications for the Farm and Trade Programs By Westhoff, Pat
  19. Antitrust Enforcement and Foreign Competition: Special Interest Theory Reconsidered By Büthe, Tim; Morgan, Stephen
  20. The Protection of Geographical Indications in TTIP: a Mission Possible By Serra, Raimondo
  22. Difficulties in Determining the Future of China’s Commodity Trade: Policy Issues and Grain Production By Hansen, Jim; Gale, Fred; Marchant, Mary; Tuan, Francis; Zhong, Funing; Wei, Chen; Somwaru, Agapi
  23. Multi-product firms, exports and exchange rate policies. Evidence from an emerging economy By Mundaca, Gabriela
  24. Do labor standards benefit workers in horticultural export chains in Peru? By Schuster, Monica; Maertens, Miet
  25. Poultry Production and Trade in the Republic of South Africa: a Look at Alternative Trade Policy Scenarios By Cochrane, Nancy; Hansen, James; Seeley, Ralph
  26. The Impact of WTO Accession Growth on Agricultural Sector of Tajikistan By Khakimov, Parviz
  27. Estimation of U.S. Demand for Imported Shrimp by Country: A Two-stage Differential Production Approach By Wang, Xiaojin; Reed, Michael
  28. NAFTA at 20: Structural Change in Mexican’s Demand for U.S. Meat Products By Nti, Frank K.
  29. Like Me, Buy Me: The Effect of Soft Power on Exports By Rose, Andrew K
  30. Survival of the Fittest: Export Duration and Failure in U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Markets By Peterson, Everett B.; Grant, Jason H.; Rudi, Jeta
  31. Liberalized World Trade and Food Import Under Foreign Exchange Constraints in the CFA's Franc Zone of Sub-Saharan Africa By SENE, Mr. SEYDINA OUSMANE; SAGHAIAN, Dr. SAYED H.
  33. U.S. Imports Demand for Cocoa Products by Country of Origin By Kadjo, Abena Lucie; Seale, James L. Jr.
  34. A fresh look at GIs in the TTIP By Deserti, Riccardo
  35. Will Belarus fully benefit from the Eurasian Economic Union? By Sierz Naurodski; Uladzimir Valetka
  36. Domestic Price and Welfare Effects of the 2007-11 Indian Grain Export Restrictions By Elleby, Christian; Hansen, Henrik; Yu, Wusheng
  37. Uganda’s Tea Export Strategy Lies in Increasing Output and Improving Quality By Corti Paul, Lakuma; Ezra, Munyambonera; Madina, Guloba
  38. Trade diversion and high food prices - The impact of the Russian pig meat import ban By Djuric, Ivan; Götz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas
  39. Export Demand Estimation for U.S. Corn and Soybeans to Major Destinations By Saghaian, Yasser; Reed, Michael; Saghaian, Sayed

  1. By: Kenji Fujiwara (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This paper examines welfare effects of trade and FDI liberalization in a model where several oligopolistic industries compete for a common factor. With this general equilibrium effects, trade and FDI liberalization has a contrasting effect. While it is unclear whether trade liberalization benefits each country, it necessarily raises world welfare. When FDI is liberalized, the host country loses and the source country gains, resulting in no effect on world welfare. These results suggest that simultaneous liberalization of trade and FDI becomes welfare-improving for the world.
    Keywords: trade liberalization, FDI liberalization, oligopoly, factor price, general equilibrium
    JEL: F12 F13 F23
    Date: 2015–07
  2. By: Heerman, Kari E.R.; Riche, Stephanie M.
    Abstract: We examine the impact of EU-Mercosur trade liberalization on bilateral trade patterns, both among exporting countries within these trade blocs and with their competitors. We focus in particular on the sensitivity of U.S. agricultural exports to expanded access for Mercosur in the European Union and for the European Union in Mercosur. We find that the U.S. market share is particularly sensitive to such an agreement to the extent that it lowers the trade costs faced by Brazilian and Argentine exporters in E.U. markets. U.S. market share is also vulnerable to increased access for Spain and Italy, but to a much lesser degree.
    Keywords: European Union, Mercosur, trade liberalization, United States, agriculture, agricultural trade, free trade agreements, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Q17, Q18, F13, F14, F15,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Grant, Jason H.; Boys, Kathryn A.
    Keywords: trade, WTO, intensive, extensive, RTA, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F1, F14, Q17, Q18,
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Imamverdiyev, Nizami; Anders, Sven; Glauben, Thomas; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Prehn, Sören
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models explicitly testing for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. The results imply that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depend on the market share of Russian wheat exports, abolishing restrictive export policies, and maintaining good trade relationships with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies.
    Keywords: Wheat exports, trade duration analysis, probit, Kazakhstan, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, C41, Q17,
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Isaac, Shinyekwa; Lawrence, Othieno
    Abstract: The paper investigates the potential impact of the EAC (a South-South Regional grouping) on trade creation and diversion. The paper seeks to establish whether the EAC Regional Trade Agreement has diverted or created trade using an expanded (augmented) gravity model. The paper departs from the conventional estimation approach that uses average combined trade flows as the dependent variable which is prone to errors and uses exports. We estimate static and dynamic random effects models using a panel data set from 2001 to 2011 on seventy countries that trade mainly with the EAC partner states. Results suggest that indeed the implementation of the EAC treaty has created trade contrary to widely held views that South- South RTAs largely divert trade. There is thus evidence that the EAC, a south-south RTA has been a more trade creating than trade diverting as espoused in the literature. The paper explains the possible measures that have helped generate the trade underscored; formulation and implementation of EAC medium term development strategies, removal of internal tariffs and adoption of a CET structure. The paper further highlights that although progress has been made in other areas, there are challenges that need to be addressed to deepen the EAC integration: persistence of NTB; lack of a common policy with regard to partner states’ trade policies to non-partner states; the lack of standardized customs formalities; the lack of harmonized procedures; and different approaches to investment and export promotion. It is recommended that; the region adopts a legally binding approach to NTBs, harmonizes trade policies and standardizes documentation and procedures.
    Keywords: Gravity model, imports, exports, intra and extra EAC, trade creation, trade diversion, trade flows, RTA, regional integration, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Public Economics,
    Date: 2013–12
  6. By: Alessandro Borin (Bank of Italy); Michele Mancini (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The diffusion of international production networks has challenged the capability of traditional trade statistics to provide an adequate representation of supply and demand linkages among the economies. To address this issue, new statistical tools (the Inter-Country Input-Output tables) and new analytical frameworks have been developed. Koopman, Wang and Wei propose an accounting methodology to decompose a country’s total gross exports by source and final destination of their embedded value added. We develop this approach further by deriving a fully consistent counterpart for bilateral trade flows, refining the original framework. Along with other contributions, our methodology completes the bridge between traditional trade statistics and the systems of national accounts and provides new tools for investigating global value chains. Here we present two empirical applications of two different versions of our decomposition of bilateral trade flows: one explores the forward linkages of Italian exports; the second derives a measure of the share of value-chain-related trade and assesses how its evolution since the mid-1990s has affected the relationship between world trade and income.
    Keywords: global value chains, input-output tables, trade in value added, trade elasticity
    JEL: F1 F14 F15
    Date: 2015–07
  7. By: Asgari, Mahdi; Reed, Michael
    Keywords: terms of trade, dynamic persistence, International Relations/Trade, C22, F14,
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Anthony Briant (Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques); Pierre-Philippe Combes (Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille); Miren Lafourcade (Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics (EEP-PSE))
    Abstract: The paper assesses the trade-creating impact of foreign-born residents on the international imports and exports of the French regions where they are settled. The protrade effect of immigrants is investigated along two intertwined dimensions: the complexity of traded goods and the quality of institutions in partner countries. The trade-enhancing impact of immigrants is, on average, more salient when they come from a country with weak institutions. However, this positive impact is especially large on the imports of simple products. When we turn to complex goods, for which the information channel conveyed by immigrants is the most valuable, immigration enhances imports regardless of the quality of institutions in the partner country. Regarding exports, immigrants substitute for weak institutions on both simple and complex goods.
    Date: 2014–01
  9. By: Steinbach, Sandro
    Keywords: food quality, direction of trade, sectoral gravity model, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–05–27
  10. By: Ludovico Bracci (Istat); Silvia Fabiani (Banca d'Italia); Alberto Felettigh (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: The new international standards for national accounts and balance of payments statistics (ESA 2010 and BPM6) introduced a new treatment of goods sent abroad for processing without changing ownership, now considered as an exchange of services. In this paper we explore to what extent this innovation affects the structural analysis of Italian trade flows, in particular along the geo-sectoral dimension. We also draw, for the first time, a detailed picture of exports and imports of processing services in order to shed light on how Italian firms participate, through this channel, in global value chains. Our findings largely validate the geo-sectoral interpretations based on the previous statistical standards. The data reveal that Italy is historically a net exporter of processing services, especially for high-technology products; flows are highly concentrated across destinations and sectors.
    Keywords: trade, processing services, global value chains.
    JEL: F10 F14
    Date: 2015–07
  11. By: Carver, Jason
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  12. By: Sattayanuwat, Wanasin
    Keywords: International Development,
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Kulyk, Iryna; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: According to prospects of international organisations like OECD and FAO, Ukraine will be one of the important suppliers of agricultural products on the world market in the coming decade. Thus, Ukrainian agricultural production and exports are important elements in sustaining global food security. However, the country threatens global food security as well as its own agricultural development when applying grain export restrictions, as happened several times in recent years. Therefore, any impediments to grain trade in the country should be carefully inspected. In this paper we analyse recent developments of Ukrainian agricultural policy influencing grain trade. We show that any export restriction brings large welfare losses compared to a free trade situation. We support our claim by a comparative analysis of the different export policies applied by the Ukrainian government on the domestic wheat market between 2006 and 2014. Additionally, we suggest and discuss alternative policy responses to realise the policy goal of domestic food security. As the policies applied, export tax, export quota and tax reimbursement, cannot be compared directly we quantify the tax equivalent of each trade policy measure. Under a set of specific assumptions the tax equivalent can be used to compare the effects of policies theoretically and empirically. Our findings go along with theory and show that export quotas in 2006 and in 2010 had a more restrictive effect on export than export taxes in 2011. Effects of non-reimbursement of VAT are very close to the effects of export tax in 2011 (at the level of 9%), mainly because most of the time these two measures were implemented simultaneously. We also calculated tariff equivalent of VAT non-reimbursement excluding the period of export taxes. Based on these results, the measure corresponds to a slight decline of the tariff equivalent in absolute terms. As an alternative policy option for the Ukrainian government to respond more efficiently to increasing world market prices in the future it is advised to use consumer-oriented measures for the most vulnerable groups of people instead of distorting market mechanisms.
    Keywords: export restrictions, non-tariff barriers, Ukraine, wheat trade, Agribusiness,
    Date: 2015–05
  14. By: Pornsawang, Chotima; Rejesus, Roderick; Mohanty, Samarendu
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Beghin, John C; Maertens, Miet; Swinnen, Johan
    Abstract: We assess the literature on public and private quality standards and their impact in food markets, international trade, and global supply chains. We focus on their effects on welfare, trade, industrial organization, and labor markets and with special attention to the North-South context. We also attempt to better characterize when these measures constitute protectionism, a complicate task. We look at studies investigating public and private standards and across various quantitative approaches and countries. These standards have complex effects. The evidence is mixed regarding standards as catalyst for or impediment against trade and development, reflecting the complexity of these effects and their specificity to industries and countries. The analysis of standard-like nontariff measures and their impacts does not lead to sweeping prescriptions for policy reforms. We identify more modest prescriptions and make some recommendations for fruitful research directions.
    Keywords: supply chain, standards, nontariff measures, SPS, NTM, trade, welfare, North-South, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, F13, F15, Q17, O19,
    Date: 2015–02
  16. By: Sharma, Anupa; Grant, Jason; Boys, Kathryn
    Abstract: Empirical research focusing on preferential treatment for developing economies have not considered how preferential margins might influence market access particularly when competing non-members might be receiving preferential benefit of their own with a common trade partner. In this paper, we compute two indices (based on existing studies) to measure bilateral trade restrictions by considering product line tariff restrictions and the product line market participants. One index captures the restrictions bilateral tariff rates impose on market access conditions of a country as compared to the most favored nation rate, called Exponential Trade Restrictiveness Index (ETRI). The other index captures the relative ease with which a country can access foreign markets compared to its competing suppliers, called Exponential Relative Preferential Margin (ERPM). Second, we use these two bilateral indices in a gravity framework to re-evaluate the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in terms of relative preferences. The results show that the GSP programs do not improve the direct market accessibility but they do improve the relative market accessibility of low-income countries.
    Keywords: Relative Preferential Margin, Trade Restrictiveness Index, PTAs, Generalized System of Preferences, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Russell Hillberry (The World Bank); Thibault Fally (University of California Berkeley)
    Abstract: International supply chains require coordination of numerous activities across multiple countries and firms. We develop a theoretical model in which the optimal organization of a supply chain involves a series of linked decisions that equate, at the margin, (domestic or international) transaction costs and the costs of coordinating more tasks within the firm. The parameters that govern the two types of costs explain variation in supply chain length as well as cross-country variation in gross output-to-value added ratios. Comparative advantage within chains depends solely on the coordination cost parameter. Conditional on participation in a chain, countries with lower coordination costs locate downstream. Within a chain, domestic transaction costs only aect countries' absolute advantage, but a country with large transaction costs tends to specialize in those chains for which its coordination costs are especially low. We provide an analytical treatment of trade and welfare responses to trade cost change in a simple two-country model. To explore the model's implications in a richer setting we calibrate the model to match key observables in East Asia, and evaluate implications of changes in model parameters for trade, welfare, the length of supply chains and countries' relative position within them.
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Westhoff, Pat
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–02–20
  19. By: Büthe, Tim; Morgan, Stephen
    Keywords: Antitrust, International Trade, Competition Policy, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Serra, Raimondo
    Keywords: TTIP, GIs, Trade, IPRs, Legal, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Public Economics,
    Date: 2015–04
  21. By: Boys, Kathryn A.; Grant, Jason H.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–01
  22. By: Hansen, Jim; Gale, Fred; Marchant, Mary; Tuan, Francis; Zhong, Funing; Wei, Chen; Somwaru, Agapi
    Abstract: Demonstrate the difficulty in developing long-term commodity projections for global markets based on current assumptions about China’s agriculture trade policies and production potential. Analyze two independent issues affecting China’s long-term projections,which affect the global markets and other country projections. Analyze the impact of restricting sorghum imports by China. What are the effects of these restrictions on global market trade, international and domestic prices, producers and consumers? Analyze impact of limiting the continuous expansion in area planted to corn in China and lowering restrictions on corn imports. What will be the effect on global markets, international prices and trade as China increases corn imports for domestic feed demand?
    Keywords: China, Trade, sorghum, corn, long-term projections, simulation partial equilibrium modeling, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–05–27
  23. By: Mundaca, Gabriela
    Abstract: Bulgaria follows a currency board tied to the euro. The analysis of the effects that adopting the euro might have on its export sector is crucial for Bulgaria and other similar Eastern European countries. Bulgaria, a middle-income country has now more multi-product firms (MPFs) than single-product firms (SPFs). Thus, MPFs is not only a characteristic of only high-income countries. The contribution of adding and dropping products within a single firm is important to the export sector and the aggregate economy. MPFs benefit from exporting to EU markets by becoming more productive and encouraged to exporting more product varieties while beating down the costs of producing these new varieties and the cannibalization effect. These MPFs might be in advantage as a result of facing lower exchange rate costs and being better exposed to the acquisition of know-how and technology from participating in EU markets. MPFs cut their product diversity only to non-EU countries to keep core competence and in response to adverse changes in the exchange rate.
    Keywords: exchange rate, exports, MPFs, cannibalization, core competence
    JEL: F12 F14 F31 F33 F41
    Date: 2015–07–23
  24. By: Schuster, Monica; Maertens, Miet
    Abstract: Private standards are spreading rapidly in international food production and trade, and are moving beyond food quality and safety aspect to address environmental and ethical concerns. We examine how effective private standards are in improving employment conditions in global food supply chains. Using panel data from company and workers surveys and different econometric techniques, we analyze how the adoption of a variety of private standards, that differ with respect to their focus on labor standards, influences employment conditions in production, processing and exporting companies in the horticultural export chain in Peru. We find that workers employed in companies adopting private labor standards are more likely to be paid a minimum wage, to have a contract and to receive training but there is no effect of private standards on the level of the wage and on the employment period. We conclude that private labor standards contribute to the enforcement of national labor laws but have no beneficial effect beyond legal employment entitlements; and that despite the enactment of labor regulations at the national level and the wide spread of private labor standards, ethical labor concerns remain an issue in the Peruvian horticultural export sector.
    Keywords: global food supply chains, labor standards, private standards, employment conditions, horticultural exports, Peru, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–12
  25. By: Cochrane, Nancy; Hansen, James; Seeley, Ralph
    Abstract: This research presents a set of alternative trade policy scenarios for the long term outlook of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) poultry sector. Consumer demand for poultry has risen dramatically in the past twenty years, but domestic output has not been able to keep pace, and imports have been rising. In a drive towards self-sufficiency, the South African Government has raised tariffs on higher value chicken cuts, including anti-dumping duties imposed on U.S. chicken legs in 2000. The U.S. poultry industry is demanding that the duties be lifted and is attempting to link renewal of AGOA to improved access for U.S. poultry. This analysis finds that if the duties on U.S. poultry are lowered to the MFN level of 37 percent, the U.S. could capture 35 percent of the South African market.
    Keywords: South Africa, poultry, AGOA, anti-dumping duties, U.S. poultry exports, USDA baseline, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Khakimov, Parviz
    Keywords: International Development, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2013–10
  27. By: Wang, Xiaojin; Reed, Michael
    Abstract: The demand for imported shrimp in the United States by country of origin is estimated by using the two-stage differential production method. Conditional and unconditional own/cross price elasticities are derived. We further project how countervailing duties imposition by U.S. affect source-specific shrimp imports. The results from aggregate level data show that overall the ownprice elasticities indicate that U.S. demand for imported shrimp is inelastic. U.S. total shrimp imports would experience an increase despite the countervailing duties, which may not be effective.
    Keywords: shrimp, import demand, elasticities, differential production approach, countervailing duties, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Q11, Q13, Q17.,
    Date: 2014
  28. By: Nti, Frank K.
    Keywords: NAFTA, meat demand, Mexico, AIDS model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Rose, Andrew K
    Abstract: In this paper I quantify a gain that a country receives when its global influence is considered to be admirable by others. I use a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2013, and an annual survey conducted for the BBC by GlobeScan which asks people in up to 46 countries about whether each of up to 17 countries were perceived to have “a mainly positive or negative influence in the world.” Holding other things constant, a country’s exports are higher if it is perceived by the importer to be exerting more positive global influence. This effect is statistically and economically significant; a one percent net increase in perceived positive influence raises exports by around .8 percent. Succinctly, countries receive a commercial return on their soft power.
    Keywords: BBC; data; empirical; global; gravity; influence; model; negative; net; panel; positive; world
    JEL: F14 F59
    Date: 2015–07
  30. By: Peterson, Everett B.; Grant, Jason H.; Rudi, Jeta
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–05–27
    Abstract: This paper finds a long-run relationship between food imports, commodities prices, exchange rates, food production, GDP, and trade openness in the CFA zone of Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a panel Vector Error Correction Model with exogenous prices expanded beyond the Hemphill’ approach (1974) on rice, wheat, maize, and sugar under fixed exchange rate constraint.
    Keywords: International Trade, CFA Zone in West Africa, Food Imports, Food Prices, Cointegration, Food Security, Foreign exchange reserve and Exchange Rate, VECM, Sub Saharan Africa., Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, F1, Q12, O13, Q17, Q18,
    Date: 2014–01–16
  32. By: Chavez, Eddie C.; Wailes, Eric J.; Durand-Morat, Alvaro
    Abstract: Thailand’s Paddy Pledging Program has created an excessive domestic rice stockpile, causing budgetary and operational controversies in the country and uncertainties in the global rice market. This study looks at the deterministic and stochastic impacts on global rice trade, price, and net welfare of potential release of Thailand’s excess rice stocks into the international market. Results show that the potential rice trade supply shock results in global rice price declines and global rice consumption increases. While rice producers are worse off and rice consumers are better off, the overall net welfare changes are relatively moderate. The stochastic analysis generates confidence intervals of outcomes for the scenarios analyzed, providing a better understanding of the response dynamics of the global rice market.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics,
    Date: 2014–01
  33. By: Kadjo, Abena Lucie; Seale, James L. Jr.
    Abstract: In this paper, we utilize four functional approaches, AIDS, Rotterdam, CBS, and NBR to estimate the U.S. elasticities of import demand for chocolate products and cocoa beans by country of origin. Additionally, we estimate the general model and use likelihood ratio tests to choose which of the four competing models best fits the cocoa products import da-ta. The likelihood ratio test indicates that the general model fails to reject the Rotterdam and CBS for the estimation of cocoa beans. With regards to chocolate products, the general model fails to reject the AIDS.
    Keywords: Elasticity, cocoa beans, chocolate, demand system, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014
  34. By: Deserti, Riccardo
    Keywords: TTIP, GIs, IPRs, Trade, Rural Development, Sustainable Development, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Public Economics,
    Date: 2015–04
  35. By: Sierz Naurodski; Uladzimir Valetka
    Abstract: Eurasian Economic Union, an ambitious project intended to benefit the countries in the post-soviet zone, evokes questions about its future. Is pulling together regional cooperation and tightening its relationship with Russia beneficial to Belarus in the long run? Having analyzed the recent trends in trade, labor and capital flows, Sierž Naurodski and Uladzimir Valetka shed light on the highly questionable nature of potential benefits the Union could bring to Belarussian economy within its current macroeconomic and institutional framework
    Keywords: Trade, economic integration and globalization, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia
    JEL: F10 F15
    Date: 2015–06
  36. By: Elleby, Christian; Hansen, Henrik; Yu, Wusheng
    Abstract: Food inflation has been a major concern for Indian policy makers the last decade. In an attempt to prevent domestic wheat and rice prices from rising during the food crisis the Indian government restricted export of these two key staples first by increasing minimum export prices successively followed by an outright export ban lasting from 2007-11. In this paper we ask, what was the effect of this ban on domestic prices and consequently on the welfare of the consumers? We approach this problem by applying new Bayesian techniques to estimate the price impact by calculating the entire counterfactual price development following the export ban. Our results indicate that the ban did indeed have a significant effect on domestic rice and wheat consumer prices. Domestic wheat prices increased around 40 percent less than they would have in the absence of a ban. We do not, however, find a significant relationship between international and domestic rice prices in India prior to the export ban. The effect of the export ban on domestic rice prices was to make them less responsive to changes in producer support. We conclude that welfare impact from the rice export ban was probably smaller than the literature suggests.
    Keywords: Export Ban, Price transmission, Counterfactual analysis, India, Food crisis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2015
  37. By: Corti Paul, Lakuma; Ezra, Munyambonera; Madina, Guloba
    Abstract: Tea is an important export commodity for Uganda. Increasing its output and quality remains at the heart of increasing Uganda’s tea export competitiveness. However, increased export competitiveness hasn’t been achieved due to a number of reasons, some of which are cost of production, limited research, inadequate processing facilities, barriers to land acquisition and poor farmer organization. This is especially true with smallholder farmers who do not have access to some of the resources that estates farmers do. A study by Munyambonera et. al. (2014)1 using data from the International Tea Committee (2012) provide lessons to Uganda on how Kenya increased its export value and volume through increasing of output and improving of quality.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,
    Date: 2014–05
  38. By: Djuric, Ivan; Götz, Linde; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the impact of the Russian ban on import of pig meat originating in the EU on the domestic pig meat price developments in Russia. We use a regime-switching price transmission model in order to identify possible changes in the long-run equilibrium between the pig meat prices of Russia and its main non-EU trading partners. Our results indicate the reduction of transaction costs in pig meat trade between Russia and its main non-EU trading partners, followed by the increase in transmission of price changes in the long-run. Though, our results indicate completely opposite results concerning domestic price relations between wholesale and end consumer pig meat prices in Russia. Overall, faced with the scarcity of pig meat on the domestic market, Russian consumers bear the biggest burden from the ban in the medium term by being faced with the significant increase in end consumer pig meat prices.
    Keywords: import ban, pig meat, price transmission, Russia, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, C22, I31, P22, Q11, Q17, Q18,
    Date: 2015
  39. By: Saghaian, Yasser; Reed, Michael; Saghaian, Sayed
    Abstract: The United States is the leading producer and exporter of corn and soybeans in the world. The United States exports 20% of the world’s corn and 30% of the world’s soybeans every year. In this study, we empirically estimate the export demand of U.S. corn and soybeans to three main destinations, China, Japan, and EU, in the current context of energy and agriculture linkages and production of ethanol from corn. A log-linear equation is used to estimate the export demand estimation of U.S. corn and soybeans. Data for the U.S. and its three main importer markets were gathered for the 1980-2011 period. The results of the logarithmic model estimates showed that china had the most elastic demand. China has the highest income elasticity of 2.5, while the income elasticity for Japan and EU were close to 1. The parameter estimates for price of soybean as a cross price was significant for China and EU, and parameter estimates for price of corn as a cross price was significant only for Japan. The positive sign revealed soybeans and corn to be substitutes in those countries.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis,
    Date: 2014

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