nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2015‒01‒31
fifty-one papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. A new look at the extensive trade margin effects of trade facilitation By Beverelli, Cosimo ; Neumüller, Simon ; Teh, Robert
  2. Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports By Dreyer, Heiko ; Anders, Sven M.
  3. Do exporting firms benefit from retail internationalization? Evidence from France By Cheptea, Angela ; Emlinger, Charlotte ; Latouche, Karine
  4. Inflation and the Pattern of Trade: General Conclusions and Evidence for Russia By Borodin, Konstantin ; Strokov, Anton
  5. Export Competitiveness of Textile Commodities: A Panel Data Approach By Tarun Arora
  6. How do exporters react to changes in cost competitiveness ? By Stefaan Decramer ; Catherine Fuss ; Jozef Konings
  7. International Linkages, Value Added Trade and LAC Firms' Productivity By Pierluigi Montalbano ; Silvia Nenci ; Carlo Pietrobelli
  8. Trade Policy Coordination and Food Price Volatility By Christophe Gouel
  9. A gravity assessment of Moroccan F&V monthly exports to EU countries: The effect of trade preferences revisited By Márquez-Ramos, Laura ; Martinez-Gomez, Victor
  10. Asia-Pacific Integration with China vs. the United States: Examining trade patterns under heterogeneous agricultural sectors By Heerman, Kari E.R. ; Arita, Shawn ; Gopinath, Munisamy
  11. Are stricter investment rules contagious? Host country competition for foreign direct investment through international agreements By Neumayer, Eric ; Nunnenkamp, Peter ; Roy, Martin
  12. Clustering value-added trade: Structural and policy dimensions By Escaith, Hubert ; Gaudin, Hadrien
  13. More than copper: toward the diversification and stabilization of Zambian exports By Brulhart, Marius ; Dihel, Nora ; Kukenova, Madina
  14. Greek trade during the global financial crisis: a firm-level analysis By Evangelos Pastelakos
  15. Betting on Exports: Trade and Endogenous Heterogeneity By Alessandra Bonfiglioli ; Gino Gancia
  16. Estimation of Export Demand for U.S Meat Products By Yeboah, Osei ; Naanwaab, Cephas B. ; Poku, Peter Hilary Amoah
  17. Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China By Gourdon, Julien ; Hering, Laura ; Monjon, Stéphanie ; Poncet, Sandra
  18. Price and Quality Changes in Outsiders of Regional Trade Agreements By Toshiyuki Matsuura ; Kazunobu Hayakawa ; Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL ; Yuta Watabe
  19. What global fragmentation means for the WTO: Article XXIV, behind-the-border concessions, and a new case for WTO limits on investment incentives By Blanchard, Emily J.
  20. Technology and Geography in the Second Industrial Revolution: New Evidence from the Margins of Trade By Michael Huberman ; Christopher M. Meissner ; Kim Oosterlinck
  21. Exporting, Innovation and the Role of Immigrants By Isabelle Sin ; Richard Fabling ; Adam B. Jaffe ; David C. Maré ; Lynda Sanderson
  22. Infrastructure provision and Africa's trade and development prospects: Potential role and relevance of The WTO Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) By Niggli, Nicholas C. ; Osei-Lah, Kodjo
  23. Import Penetration, Intermediate Inputs and Firms’ Productivity in the EU Food Industry By Olper, Alessandro ; Curzi, Daniele ; Raimondi, Valentina
  24. Collateral Imbalances in Intra-European Trade? By Arne J. Nagengast ; Robert Stehrer
  25. Virtual water and input-output model framework: an alternative way to assess trade and water consumption in FYR Macedonia By Hristov, Jordan ; Martinovska-Stojcheska, Aleksandra ; Surry, Yves
  26. Survival is for the fittest: export survival patterns in Georgia By Martuscelli, Antonio ; Varela, Gonzalo
  27. Trade Restrictiveness Indices in Presence of Externalities: An Application to Non-Tariff Measures By Beghin, John C. ; Disdier, Anne-Célia ; Marette, Stéphan
  28. The Progress of Paperless Trade in Asia and the Pacific: Enabling International Supply Chain Integration By Ha, Sung Heun ; Lim, Sang Won
  29. Price discrimination and pricing to market behavior of Black sea region wheat exporters By Gafarova, Gulmira ; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr ; Glauben, Thomas
  30. Analysis of the impact of dollarization and CAFTA-DR on El Salvador's trade flows By Sandoval, Luis ; Malaga, Jaime ; Carpio, Carlos
  31. The Heterogeneity of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa – How Do the Horizontal Productivity Effects of Emerging Investors Differ from Those of Traditional Players? By Birte Pfeiffer ; Holger Görg ; Lucia Perez Villar
  32. Agricultural trade distortions during recent international price spikes: what implications for food security? By Magrini, Emiliano ; Montalbano, Pierluigi ; Nenci, Silvia ; Salvatici, Luca
  33. Gravity for Outsourcing: an Application with Input-Output Dataset. By de Mello-Sampayo, Felipa
  34. CEPII NTM-MAP: A Tool for Assessing the Economic Impact of Non-Tariff Measures By Julien Gourdon
  35. Psychic distance and FDI: the case of China By Katiuscia Vaccarini
  36. Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance By Gong, Li ; Kinnucan, Henry
  37. Forging a global environmental agreement through trade sanctions on free riders? By Thomas Eichner ; Rüdiger Pethig
  38. Simulating world trade in the decades ahead: Driving forces and policy implications By Fontagné, Lionel ; Fouré, Jean ; Keck, Alexander
  39. On the effects of unilateral environmental policy on offshoring in multi-stage production processes By Schenker, Oliver ; Koesler, Simon ; Löschel, Andreas
  40. Latin American Agriculture in a World of Trade Agreements By Josling, Tim ; Paggi, Mechel ; Wainio, John ; Yanazaki, Fumiko
  41. International diversification and performance in agri-food firms By Raúl Serrano ; Marta Fernández-Olmos ; Vicente Pinilla
  42. Domestic support and border measures: some instruments to reduce vulnerability of food security to trade in developing countries By Laroche Dupraz, Catherine ; Huchet Bourdon, Marilyne
  43. The long and winding road: How WTO members finally reached a trade facilitation agreement By Neufeld, Nora
  44. Napoleonic protectionism: how France's cotton industry gained By Réka Juhász
  45. Import Demand for Milk in China: Dynamics and Market Integration By Dharmasena, Senarath ; Wang, Jing ; Bessler, David A.
  46. A model of IPRs in the international supply chain of seeds and agricultural production By Eaton, Derek
  47. Price transmission in the Swiss wheat market: does sophisticated border protection make the difference? By Esposti, Roberto ; Listorti, Giulia
  48. The role of trade-led economic growth in fostering development: Lessons for the post-2015 development agenda By Priyadarshi, Shishir ; Biswas, Trineesh
  49. Rising Imports and Domestic Rice Production in Togo By Hodjo, Manzamasso ; Acharya, Ram N.
  50. Globalization and Growth By Gene M. Grossman ; Elhanan Helpman
  51. TTIP: Theoretische Grundlagen, Maßnahmen und Wirkungen By Weeber, Joachim ; Becker, Amelie ; Elvers, Joost Henrik ; Fruggel, Kathrin ; Laouros, Anastasios ; Pergande, Katharina ; Ritz, Fabian ; Schmitt, Finja ; Werner, Christopher ; Wilkens, Marc ; Wulf, Arne

  1. By: Beverelli, Cosimo ; Neumüller, Simon ; Teh, Robert
    Abstract: We estimate the effects of trade facilitation on the extensive margins of trade. Using OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators - which closely reflect the Trade Facilitation Agreement negotiated at the Bali WTO Ministerial Conference of December 2013 - we show that trade facilitation in a given exporting country is positively correlated with the number of products exported by destination and with the number of export destinations served by product. To address the issue of causality, we employ an identification strategy whereby only exports of new products, or exports to new destinations, are taken into account when computing the respective margins of trade. Our findings therefore imply a positive causal impact of trade facilitation on the extensive margins of trade. The results are, to a large extent, robust to alternative definitions of extensive margins, to different sets of controls variables and to various estimation methods. Simulating the effect of an increase to the regional or global median values of trade facilitation, we are able to quantify the potential extensive margin gains of trade facilitation reform in different regions.
    Keywords: Trade facilitation,Export diversi cation,International trade agreements,WTO
    JEL: F13 F14 F17
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Dreyer, Heiko ; Anders, Sven M.
    Abstract: This paper estimates trade duration of raw coffee exports into the European Union (EU) market comparing different discrete-time duration models using monthly trade panel data from 1988 to 2013. As coffee is an important export commodity and revenue generator for many developing and least developed economies, successful and long-term trade relationships are essential. Results reveal that major gravity model variables also explain duration of EU coffee imports. Moreover, we find that both, exporting countries and importing county characteristics, matter in explaining duration of trade. Keywords: Trade duration, Discrete-time Analysis
    Keywords: Trade duration, Discrete-time Analysis, Coffee, EU, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  3. By: Cheptea, Angela ; Emlinger, Charlotte ; Latouche, Karine
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the link between globalization of the retail sector and the export activity of firms from their origin country. In a previous paper (Cheptea, Emlinger and Latouche, forthcoming), we showed that exporting firm from countries with internationalized retail companies benefit more from this process than firms from other countries. The underlying assumption of this paper is that the main benefits are grasped by the retailers’ domestic suppliers. In other words, firms that sell their products under retailers’ brands benefit more from the overseas expansion of retailers than other firms. We employ French firm-level data to evaluate the effect for the two types of firms. We identify retailers’ suppliers using the certification of French agri-food firms with the private IFS standard, granting them the right to sell their products under a retailer’s brand. Our empirical objective is to estimate whether firms with IFS certification have better export performance on markets where French retail companies have established outlets. We find that certified French firms export more than non-certified firms to markets where IFS retailers established outlets (mainly outside Europe). The difference is statistically significant and robust to the use of firm- and country-specific fixed effects. Results are similar for the extensive and the intensive margin of exports.
    Keywords: Multinational retailers, Firm-level exports, Private standards, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, F12, F14, F23,
    Date: 2014–08
  4. By: Borodin, Konstantin ; Strokov, Anton
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of differences in the inflation rates of trade-partner countries on their foreign trade patterns. The results of the analysis of a simple trade model served as the basis for an empirical study of Russia's foreign trade. For the purposes of experimental verification, we built Russia's export and import gravity models, using trade data for 2005-2012, as well as indicators reflecting the ratio of inflation rates in Russia and its trade-partner countries by the main commodity groups (inflation data for 1995-2012). The results of the empirical verification have basically confirmed the conclusions derived from the trade model analysis: Russia intensifies its export of fuel and raw-material commodities to countries with lower inflation rates and, simultaneously, increases its import of engineering, chemical, and agricultural products from countries with lower inflation rates.
    Keywords: trade pattern, inflation, gravity model, Russia, International Relations/Trade, F14, E31,
    Date: 2014–06
  5. By: Tarun Arora
    Abstract: The Paper assesses the export competitiveness of top fifteen textile products (different for each export destination) at 6 digit level of HS classification exported by India to top seven textile export destinations by using both price and income export elasticities. The export elasticities are estimated using dynamic panel data approach for each country separately. Commodity specific elasticities are further estimated to forecast the exports of commodities exported to respective export destinations. The resulting estimates can be used in designing destination specific export promotion policies for India.
    Keywords: Trade elasticities, Competitiveness, Forecasting
    JEL: F1 F14 F17
    Date: 2015–01
  6. By: Stefaan Decramer (University of Leuven ); Catherine Fuss (Research Department, NBB, and Université Libre de Bruxelles ); Jozef Konings (University of Leuven and University of Ljubljana )
    Abstract: Policy-making institutions such as the European Commission, the ECB and the OECD often use unit labor costs as a measure of international competitiveness. The goal of this paper is to examine how well this measure is related to international export performance at the firm level. To this end, we use Belgian firm-level data for the period 1999-2010 to analyze the impact of unit labor costs on exports. We use exports adjusted for their import content. We find a statistically significant negative effect of unit labor costs on export performance of firms with an estimated elasticity of the intensive margin of exports ranging between -0.2 and -0.4. This result is robust to various specifications, including firm, time and sector fixed effects and estimation approaches. We find that this elasticity varies between sectors and between firms, with firms that are more labor-intensive having a higher elasticity of exports with respect to unit labor costs. The micro data also enable us to analyze the impact of unit labor costs on the extensive margin. Our results show that higher unit labor costs reduce the probability of starting to export for non-exporters and increase the probability of exporters stopping. While our results show that unit labor costs have an impact on the intensive margin and extensive margin of firm-level exports, the effect is rather low, suggesting that passthrough of costs into prices is limited or that demand for exported products is not elastic. The latter is consistent with recent trade models emphasizing that not only relative costs, but also demand factors such as quality and taste matter for explaining firm-level exports.
    Keywords: unit labor costs, exports, competitiveness, heterogeneity
    JEL: F1 F4 F16
    Date: 2015–01
  7. By: Pierluigi Montalbano ; Silvia Nenci ; Carlo Pietrobelli
    Abstract: This paper addresses the following research questions: i) are firms characterized by international linkages more productive than other firms? ii) are those belonging to industries more involved in GVCs even more productive? To this end, we combine the WB Enterprise Survey dataset with the new OECD-WTO TiVA dataset and present three main empirical exercises: 1) an analysis of productivity premia associated with participation in international trade and presence of inward FDI; 2) a Cobb-Douglas output function expanded to firms international linkages; 3) a further expanded version of the above relationship including the TIVA-based indicators of value added trade and industry participation and position in global value chain. Our empirical outcomes confirm the presence of a positive causal relationship between participation in international activities and firm performance in the LAC region. Focusing on four big Latin American countries we show that the actual level of involvement into GVCs matters as well.
    Keywords: International Trade; Trade in Value a dded; Global value chains; Firm productivity.
    JEL: F14 D24 L22 O54
    Date: 2014–12
  8. By: Christophe Gouel
    Abstract: Many countries adjust their trade policies countercyclically with food prices, to the extent that the use by numerous food exporters of export restrictions has occasionally threatened the food security of food importing countries. These trade policies are inconsistent with the terms-of-trade motivation often retained to characterize the payoff frontier of self-enforcing trade agreements, as they can worsen the terms of trade of the countries that apply them. This paper analyzes trade policy coordination when trade policies are driven by terms-of-trade effects and a desire to reduce domestic food price volatility. This framework implies that importing and exporting countries have incentives to deviate from cooperation at different periods: the latter when prices are high and the former when prices are low. Since staple food prices tend to have asymmetric distributions, with more prices below than above the mean but with occasional spikes, a self-enforcing agreement generates asymmetric outcomes. Without cooperation, an importing country uses more frequently its trade policy because of the concentration of prices below the mean, but an exporting country has a greater incentive to deviate from a cooperative trade policy because positive deviations from the mean price are larger than negative ones. Thus, the asymmetry of the distribution of commodity prices can make it more difficult to discipline export taxes than tariffs in trade agreements.
    Keywords: commodity price stabilization;export restrictions;repeated game;WTO
    JEL: F13 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2014–12
  9. By: Márquez-Ramos, Laura ; Martinez-Gomez, Victor
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of different trade preferences granted to Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs). Specifically, we focus on monthly exports of four fruits and vegetables from Morocco to EU countries. We construct three indicators that consider different types of preferences and trade policies, and we include them in a gravity model. Furthermore, quantitative limits for these preferences are modelled. Our main results are that trade preferences are significant in positively determining exports from Morocco to the EU. Therefore, the Moroccan policy option that consists on negotiating trade preferences in key competitive sectors is translated into export increases.
    Keywords: Gravity, fruits and vegetables, trade preferences, EU countries, Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  10. By: Heerman, Kari E.R. ; Arita, Shawn ; Gopinath, Munisamy
    Abstract: This article compares the effects on global agricultural trade patterns of Asia-Pacific regional economic integration led by the United States versus that by China. Our analysis employs a Eaton-Kortum type model in which agricultural producers have access to technology with heterogeneous productivity. Unlike the standard Eaton-Kortum model, product specific-productivity is linked to a country’s land and climate characteristics and trade costs are product-specific. We derive a structural relationship between the probability a country has comparative advantage in a given export market for an individual agricultural product and the bilateral costs of trading that product controlling for the product-specific unit costs of production from a general equilibrium framework. We specify the relationship as a random coefficients logit model to estimate a country-specific distribution of trade costs and productivity across agricultural products. We use these estimated distributions to explore the set of bilateral relationships from which Asia-Pacific integration is likely to generate the largest shifts in agricultural trade patterns.
    Keywords: Asia-Pacific integration, agricultural trade, free trade agreements, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015–11
  11. By: Neumayer, Eric ; Nunnenkamp, Peter ; Roy, Martin
    Abstract: We argue that the trend toward international investment agreements (IIAs) with stricter investment rules is driven by competitive diffusion, namely defensive moves of developing countries concerned about foreign direct investment (FDI) diversion in favor of competing host countries. Accounting for spatial dependence in the formation of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and preferential trade agreements (PTAs) that contain investment provisions, we find that the increase in agreements with stricter provisions on investor-state dispute settlement and pre-establishment national treatment is a contagious process. Specifically, a developing country is more likely to sign an agreement with weak investment provisions if other developing countries that compete for FDI from the same developed country have previously signed agreements with similarly weak provisions. Conversely, contagion in agreements with strong provisions exclusively derives from agreements with strong provisions that other FDI-competing developing countries have previously signed with a specific developed source country of FDI.
    Keywords: bilateral investment treaties,preferential trade agreements,investment provisions,competition for FDI,spatial dependence
    JEL: F21 F53
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Escaith, Hubert ; Gaudin, Hadrien
    Abstract: A second approach focuses on the relationships existing between the variables themselves, using multi-criteria and graph analysis. Natural resources endowments, on the one hand, and services orientation, on the other one, are among the most determinant variables for defining Trade in Value Added (TiVA) clusters. The level of economic development remains a crucial determinant of the TiVA profile as is the size of the economy, even if not as important as initially expected. Pro-active GVC up-grading strategies, such as investments in ICT and R&D tend to foster a higher foreign content in exports, compensating the lower domestic margin by higher volumes. Inward-oriented protectionist policies are not particularly successful in exporting higher share of domestic content, except in services exports; but in this case, export volumes remain marginal.
    Keywords: trade in value-added,global value chains,trade policy,input-output analysis,effective protection rate,exploratory data analysis
    JEL: D57 F13 F14 F15 F23 O19 O24
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Brulhart, Marius ; Dihel, Nora ; Kukenova, Madina
    Abstract: This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products). This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Free Trade,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2015–01–01
  14. By: Evangelos Pastelakos
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to identify and quantify factors which influenced exporting firms' performance during the last global financial crisis. A structured questionnaire is utilized to interview a sample of Greek exporters. The survey generated a unique dataset describing the firms' characteristics and the degree to which various trade factors affected their exports. The econometric analysis which implements a multinomial logistic model incorporates various firms� profile and trade factor variables to estimate firms' changes in export volumes over the crisis. From this exercise we highlight the factors that discouraged exports and conclude that the crisis's impact was uneven across firms of different characteristics. Firms' age, size, destination markets and the impact of taxation, euro exchange rate and foreign demand are statistically significant predictors of firms' exporting performance during the crisis period.
    Date: 2014–12–07
  15. By: Alessandra Bonfiglioli ; Gino Gancia
    Abstract: We study the equilibrium determinants of firm-level heterogeneity in a model in which firms can choose between different probability distributions when drawing productivity at the entry stage and explore the implications in closed and open economy. One novel result is that export opportunities, by increasing payoffs in the tail, induce firms to draw technology from riskier distributions. When more productive firms also pay higher wages, trade amplifies wage dispersion by inducing firms to take more risk ex-ante and hence making them more unequal ex-post. Our model is consistent with new evidence on how firm-level heterogeneity varies across U.S. industries.
    Keywords: firm heterogeneity, productivity dispersion, wage inequality, international trade
    JEL: F12 F16 E24
    Date: 2014–12
  16. By: Yeboah, Osei ; Naanwaab, Cephas B. ; Poku, Peter Hilary Amoah
    Abstract: With the productivity of US agriculture growing faster than domestic food and fiber demand, U.S farmers and agricultural firms rely heavily on export markets, to sustain price revenues. U.S agricultural exports have been larger than imports since 1960, generating a surplus in agricultural trade. The surplus helps counter the persistent deficit in non-agricultural merchandise trade, ERS - USDA (2013). From its modest beginning during the nineteenth century as a niche market, Asia has grown enormously in importance as a trading partner for the United States, (Foreign Trade Statistics, U.S Census Bureau). For example, by mid-2008, China accounted for 11.2% of all U.S trade behind Canada’s 17.9% share but ahead of Mexico’s 10.7%. This paper econometrically analyzes the export demand of U.S. meat products into these countries using the Export demand model. The model is applied to yearly aggregated data of U.S. meat product exports to some Asian countries from1980 to 2013. Export values were regressed on the per capita GDP of the countries in question, Exchange rates of the currencies of these countries to the U.S. dollar and WTO Membership. Results indicated that, per capita GDP and exchange rates positively affect the quantity of export.
    Keywords: chicken, pork, export demand model, beef, turkey., International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Gourdon, Julien ; Hering, Laura ; Monjon, Stéphanie ; Poncet, Sandra
    Abstract: Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as export - ers may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-product level over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with sup - plied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields a better understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially.
    Keywords: VAT System; export tax; export performance; China;
    JEL: F10 F14 O14
    Date: 2014–12
  18. By: Toshiyuki Matsuura ; Kazunobu Hayakawa ; Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL ; Yuta Watabe
    Abstract: Countries excluded from a regional trade agreement face disadvantages in tariffs when exporting to member countries. In this context, previous studies found that such excluded countries, i.e., outsiders, lower their export prices. In contrast, this study aims to examine not only prices but also the quality of outsiders' exports. Specifically, we first estimate the quality of products exported from each country to Thailand under certain tariff schemes. In addition to our estimates on cross-price elasticity, we use this measure to compute the potential magnitude of trade diversion for outsiders. Then, we investigate the relationship between this trade diversion and changes in the quality of exports from outsiders. Consequently, we found that only outsiders exporting higher quality products exhibited a greater improvement in quality to decrease the negative effect of tariff disadvantages. Length: 22 pages
    Date: 2014–10
  19. By: Blanchard, Emily J.
    Abstract: The rapid rise in global fragmentation - foreign investment, global supply chains, and 'production sharing' - is fundamentally reshaping the multilateral trading system. This paper uses a simple economic modeling framework to understand how the global fragmentation phenomenon may reshape the WTO, and particularly its developing country members that are most affected by the rise in global production sharing and foreign direct investment. The paper argues that the surge in global production sharing, supply chain agreements, and investment has not only recast the role of existing GATT/WTO rules, but that these same forces also create a strong rationale for new multilateral disciplines pertaining to investment incentives and other 'behind-the-border' policies.
    Keywords: GATT WTO,International Investment,Global Supply Chains,Production Fragmentation,Multilateral Investment Agreements
    JEL: F13 F15 F21 F23
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Michael Huberman ; Christopher M. Meissner ; Kim Oosterlinck
    Abstract: In the Belle Époque, Belgium recorded an unprecedented trade boom, but growth in output per capita was lackluster. We seek to reconcile this ostensible paradox. Because of the sharp decline in both fixed and variable trade costs, the trade boom was as much about the expansion in the number of products delivered and markets served as it was about shipping more of the same old products. We use a new highly disaggregated data set on bilateral exports at the product level to illustrate these claims. In line with new trade theory, the effect of trade on productivity was mediated by sector-level firm heterogeneity and product differentiation. In new technology sectors, like tramways, the high degree of firm heterogeneity amplified the effect of trade on productivity. But in other sectors, mainly old staple industries like cotton textiles, a high level of firm uniformity muted the effect of trade. Into the twentieth century, old staples trumped new technology sectors, per capita income growing modestly as a result.
    JEL: F14 F15 N73
    Date: 2015–01
  21. By: Isabelle Sin (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research ); Richard Fabling (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research ); Adam B. Jaffe (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research ); David C. Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research ); Lynda Sanderson (New Zealand Treasury )
    Abstract: This research uses Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure and data from the Business Operations Survey to investigate the correlations at the firm level between a) employee characteristics and firm international engagement, and b) firm international engagement and innovation. The main findings on employee characteristics and international engagement are: • Firms that employ a higher fraction of high-ability foreigners (and thus a lower fraction of high-ability natives) are more likely to export. • Firms that employ a higher proportion of people who previously worked for an exporter are more likely to export. • The proportions of foreign employees and employees with export experience are correlated with many other types of international engagement by firms. • Employees from Australia and the Pacific and from Europe are positively correlated with firm exporting. The correlations are absent for foreign employees from Asia. • The probability that a firm earns income in a given country is more correlated with its fraction of employees from that country than with its total fraction of foreign employees. • A firm with a higher fraction of employees from a given country is more likely to earn income in that country only if the country is developed. The main findings on international engagement and innovation are: • Firms that export innovate more, even after controlling for size. • Among exporters, the proportion of firm sales that comes from exports shows little correlation with innovation. • Firms that export to more countries innovate more. • Exports of raw goods have little correlation with innovation; exports of manufactured goods or services have a strong correlation. • Firms that recently entered a new export market report especially high innovation, and firms that began earning overseas income in the previous two years report higher innovation than those that have earned overseas income for a longer period. • Not all export destinations are correlated with higher innovation. Exports to the Americas are positively correlated with innovation, but there is no evidence that firms that export more to Asia are more likely to innovate. • In addition to exporting, most other types of international engagement, such as inward and outward foreign direct investment, are positively correlated with innovation. • Firms' sources of ideas for innovation vary with the types of international engagement in which they are involved. The patterns are consistent with exporters gaining ideas from their international customers, firms gaining ideas from their foreign owners, and importers gaining ideas from their foreign suppliers. Although these relationships are correlations only and should not be interpreted as proof of causality, they do suggest that the experience and specialized knowledge of employees may be relevant to firms’ decisions to engage internationally, and that such engagement may act as a conduit for foreign knowledge to enter the country.
    Keywords: exporting, innovation, migrants, international engagement, workforce composition
    JEL: O31 F16 F22 J61 J24
    Date: 2014–12
  22. By: Niggli, Nicholas C. ; Osei-Lah, Kodjo
    Abstract: Two issues stand out in this conversation. The first concerns the unfinished business of the global fight against the scourge of poverty, which impacts one region more than most: Africa. At the same time, a key pre-requisite for economic performance - affordable and efficient public infrastructure and services - remains lacking in this region - notably, in Sub-Saharan Africa. To address this, the region itself has initiated a major, long-term, continent-wide infrastructure development programme which is intended to fix this problem sustainably - namely, the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). Its success foreshadows an economic transformation that will potentially usher in an emergent Africa in the 21st century. Secondly, in one area of economic activity - trade in government procurement markets - the revised WTO Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) is emerging as a multi-dimensional tool of trade, governance and development. The thesis of this paper is that GPA participation by African countries - a prospect which, to date, they have declined to take up - holds strong potential to reinforce the positive effects of PIDA and to contribute to the region's growth and development more generally. [...]
    Keywords: Africa,Agreement on Government Procurement,Aid,Corruption,Development,Developing Countries,Economic Integration,Foreign Investment,Foreign Trade,GDP,Governance,Government Procurement,GPA,Infrastructure,Integration,International Trade,International Trade Organizations,LDCs,Liberalization,Openness,Procurement,Public Goods,Public-Private Partnerships,Public Procurement,Regional Integration,Strategic Trade,Trade,Trade Agreements,Trade Policy,WTO
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 H44 H54 H57 O19
    Date: 2014
  23. By: Olper, Alessandro ; Curzi, Daniele ; Raimondi, Valentina
    Abstract: The aim of this contribution is to study empirically the effect of trade liberalization on productivity growth exploiting a large micro-dataset of more than 20,000 French and Italian food firms, over the 2004-2012 period. This relationship has been studied focusing on import penetration at both industry and upstream sectors level, to investigate the role played by imports in intermediate inputs. Main findings show that import penetration in both final products and intermediate inputs systematically contributed to firm-level productivity growth. Yet, the productivity growth effect induced by import penetration in upstream sectors is 10 times higher than the one at the industry level. Horizontal import competition coming from the EU15 and OECD countries exerts the strongest effect on productivity growth. By contrast, when vertical import penetration is considered, also sourcing intermediate inputs from emerging markets appears important for firms’ productivity growth. Finally, we also find a strong confirmation that the effects of import penetration are increasing with the initial level of firms’ productivity. All these stylized facts may have interesting policy implications.
    Keywords: import penetration, intermediate inputs, firm-level TFP, food industry, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Production Economics, F14, F15, F61, L66, Q17,
    Date: 2015
  24. By: Arne J. Nagengast ; Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw )
    Abstract: Abstract One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU-27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners.
    Keywords: trade balances, global value chains, vertical specialisation, value added, input-output tables
    JEL: F1 F2 C67 R15
    Date: 2014–07
  25. By: Hristov, Jordan ; Martinovska-Stojcheska, Aleksandra ; Surry, Yves
    Abstract: This study aims to analyse the water consumption of the Macedonian economic sectors and their trade strategies by means of virtual water in an input-output (IO) framework. By analysing the trade balance we determine that as consequence of high virtual water content and significant exports of some sectors, Macedonia is a net exporter of virtual water and lost around 124 million of m3 water at 2005 level or 18% of the total water consumption. Considering a policy option of export nullification for the most water-intensive products with significant net positive exports, yields a substantial water savings by 42.53% of the total water consumption.
    Keywords: virtual water content, trade, Macedonia, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2014–08
  26. By: Martuscelli, Antonio ; Varela, Gonzalo
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of export flow survival in Georgia. The paper uses a unique Georgian firm-level data set, in which firms'characteristics and output dynamics are matched with their customs'export transactions, for the period 2006-12. A discrete survival model is used to explore the role of firm level characteristics, diversification strategies, and network effects on the survival rates of export flows. Low survival rates at the product level are found to limit the ability of Georgian firms to consolidate new products in international markets. The analysis finds that it is production efficiency, rather than size, that boosts export survival chances, that firms’ diversification strategies matter for the prospects of survival, and that there is strong evidence of network effects in export survival. The analysis also finds that ratified foreign trade agreements contribute to increase the survival of export flows by reducing policy-induced trading costs and increasing information about destination markets.
    Keywords: Markets and Market Access,Microfinance,Economic Theory&Research,Small Scale Enterprise,Debt Markets
    Date: 2015–01–01
  27. By: Beghin, John C. ; Disdier, Anne-Célia ; Marette, Stéphan
    Abstract: We extend the trade restrictiveness index approach to the case of market imperfections and domestic regulations addressing them. We focus on standard-like non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting cost of production and potentially enhancing demand by reducing negative externalities. We apply the framework to the database of Kee et al. (2009) and derive ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) for technical measures. About 39% of the product lines affected by NTMs exhibit negative AVEs, indicating a net trade-facilitating effect of these measures. Accounting for these effects significantly reduces previous measures of countries’ trade policy restrictiveness obtained while constraining these NTMs to be trade reducing.
    Keywords: Non-tariff measures, externalities, ad valorem equivalents, trade restrictiveness indices, International Relations/Trade, F13, F18, Q56,
    Date: 2014–08
  28. By: Ha, Sung Heun (Korea Trade Network (KTNET) ); Lim, Sang Won (Trade Facilitation Unit, Trade and Investment Division, UNESCAP )
    Abstract: This paper discusses on how to facilitate paperless trade for international supply chain integration in the Asia and Pacific region. The paper defines paperless trade and describes how paperless trade can improve efficiency of international supply chain, including its economic benefits. Based on the review of paperless trade initiatives and assessment of paperless trade readiness of countries in the Asia and Pacific region, the paper identifies five critical challenges in facilitating cross-border paperless trade: use of common international standards, harmonization of different legal frameworks, capacity gaps among the parties, cooperation between the public and private sectors, and lack of coordination mechanisms for cross-border data exchanges. For each challenge, the paper describes its nature and possible measures for alleviating it. In its annexes, the paper also provides implementation cases of cross-border paperless trade in the Asia and Pacific region, namely Pan Asian e-Commerce Alliance (PAA) and electronic Certificate of Origin between the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China.
    Keywords: Paperless trade; international supply chain integration; trade facilitation
    JEL: F15 F19
    Date: 2014–10–01
  29. By: Gafarova, Gulmira ; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr ; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: As a result of some important changes in the international wheat market, market shares of leading exporters have recently altered. The Black Sea region countries – Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine have become important wheat exporters. Consequently, the pricing behavior of these countries has become a key issue. By applying the pricing-to-market model to annual wheat exports, this study analyses price discriminating behavior of the KRU exporters in foreign markets during 1996-2012. The results demonstrate that even though the KRU countries are able to exercise price discrimination in some importing countries, they usually face perfect competition in most destinations.
    Keywords: fixed-effects model, mark-up, price discrimination, pricing-to-market, wheat export, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  30. By: Sandoval, Luis ; Malaga, Jaime ; Carpio, Carlos
    Abstract: In January of 2001, El Salvador adopted the U.S. dollar as its currency, going through a full dollarization process that fixed the exchange rate at 8.75 colones (El Salvador’s former currency) per U.S. dollar and that took the colón out of circulation. Dollarization was expected to increase trade and attract international investment among other benefits. Later, in 2005, El Salvador signed CAFTA-DR which is a bilateral trade agreement between the United States and five Central American countries and the Dominican Republic. CAFTA-DR was also expected to increase trade, especially exports to the United States, El Salvador’s main commercial partner. Although several studies were conducted to evaluate the potential benefits of these two events on El Salvador’s Trade flows, studies evaluating the actual impact of these events are very limited. To evaluate the actual impact of these two events on trade flows we estimate two gravity models (one for imports and one for exports) using panel data on trade flows between El Salvador and 13 other countries between 1994 to 2012. Our preliminary results suggest that dollarization and CAFTA-DR did not have a major effect on El Salvador’s bilateral trade.
    Keywords: dollarization CAFTA-DR El Salvador, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  31. By: Birte Pfeiffer ; Holger Görg ; Lucia Perez Villar
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the horizontal productivity effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) from industrialized and developing countries in 10 sub-Saharan African countries. We establish a unique data set by combining data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys that allow us to distinguish between foreign investors from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. We find strong evidence of horizontal productivity spillovers to domestic firms derived from foreign-firm presence. However, these effects are clearly dependent on domestic firms’ absorptive capacity. The largest productivity effects seem to be driven by investors from sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis also shows that productivity effects differ according to the income level of host countries. Overall, the strongest productivity effects seem to materialize in lower-middle-income countries. These key findings emphasize the increasing importance of emerging investors, beyond the traditional players from industrialized countries, in sub-Saharan Africa
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, productivity, South–South firms, spillovers, sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F23
    Date: 2015–01
  32. By: Magrini, Emiliano ; Montalbano, Pierluigi ; Nenci, Silvia ; Salvatici, Luca
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the causal impact of trade policy distortions on food security. This is an hot issue since restrictions to agricultural trade have been generally applied by national governments, especially in developing countries, as a tool to insulate domestic markets from international prices turmoil. The added value of this work is twofold: i) the use of a non parametric matching technique with continuous treatment, namely the Generalised Propensity Score (GPS) to address the self selection bias; ii) the analysis of heterogeneity in treatment (by commodities) as well as in outcome (i.e., different dimensions of food security). The outcomes of our estimates show clearly that trade policy distortions are, overall, significantly correlated with the various dimensions of food security under analysis. Specifically, countries supporting the primary sector tend to be better off in all the dimensions of food security (food availability, access, utilisation and stability. However, the maximum level of food security is associated with moderate protection policies.
    Keywords: Food security, International trade, Trade measures, Impact evaluation, GPS, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  33. By: de Mello-Sampayo, Felipa
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of gravity on outsourcing. We derive a gravity equation from the classical spatial supply problem in which firms purchase some of their inputs from other firms paying the required transport costs. We also allow for different levels of productivity of the firms and build a gravity equation from entropy maximization. Even if the gravity equations look similar, we show that their underlying structures are different. In general terms, countries are viewed as competing with each other for interaction. The competing destinations gravity model represents a step forward in the recognition of interdependencies in spatial choice. Thus, we include a variable to explain the spatial structure of outsourcing countries in a geographical system. We find much stronger support for the gravity equation derived from the probabilistic input demand function than for the deterministic gravity model. The model shows that outsourcing is carried out mostly because of factor cost differentials and technological differences, but that distance and the gravity of other countries adversely affect trade in intermediate goods and services.
    Keywords: Outsourcing, Gravity Model, Trade, MNEs, Poisson regression
    JEL: C21 F1 F23 R15
    Date: 2014
  34. By: Julien Gourdon
    Abstract: This paper documents NTM-MAP, CEPII’s database measuring the incidence of Non-Tariff Measures through different methodologies, based on UNCTAD multilateral database. Three indexes are proposed as proxies for NTMs occurrence: frequency index, coverage ratio and prevalence score. Those indices are systematically computed for several countries and products classifications and for five different categories of NTMs (SPS, TBT, PSI, Price Control and Quantitative Restrictions). 63 countries are covered, with reference year 2010, 2011 or 2012, using two different product disaggregation levels (HS-2 and HS-Section). This comprehensive dataset on non-tariff measures is intended for descriptive, trade policy or econometric analysis.
    Keywords: trade;non-tariff measures
    JEL: F13 F15 O19
    Date: 2014–12
  35. By: Katiuscia Vaccarini (University of Macerata )
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent psychic distance (PD) is considered by scholars as specific determinant of inbound and outbound foreign direct investments (FDI) in China. The finding of this study, which is a systematic literature review show that PD as a variable of FDI determinants seems to be under-investigated. The difficulty in quantifying the variable in international business might be one of the reasons. Nevertheless, the literature does raise awareness on distance issues and its multi-dimensions since it first appeared. Besides, the most applicable indexes elaborated by international business scholars are based on Hofstede’s work, whose results are used both in psychology and management studies, pinpointing its interdisciplinary nature. This paper aims to systematize the limited and fragmented literature about non-tangible perceptions of distance between home and host economies this paper contributes in raising awareness . However, as part of a wider European Union project the ultimate results of the paper have not been leaked yet. This study provides useful insights and practical implications for international scholars regarding a more comprehensive review of PD, for managers in terms of raising awareness on PD and of the foreign environment (opportunities and difficulties which they are experiencing in the market context) as well as setting up and strengthening long-term cooperation between Europe and China and finally, policy makers on the issue of trade and investment flows between Europe and China, key barriers which affect companies and which require action at political and institutional level in order to ensure that opportunities are fully exploited.
    Keywords: psychic distance, China, FDI, determinants of FDI.
    Date: 2014–12
  36. By: Gong, Li ; Kinnucan, Henry
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the U.S. agricultural trade against the remaining of the world. The dynamic ARDL model of error correction version is applied, not only investigating if there is J-curve effect in the short-run or not, but also taking a deep analysis for U.S. recession effects and exchange rate as well as income growth effects in the long run on the U.S. trade balance of agricultural commodities which mainly consists of bulk products and high-value products. Our results indicate that there is no significant J-curve effect for three cases, while the long-run effect demonstrates that the domestic currency devaluation is positively related with U.S. agricultural trade balance for bulk, high-value and combined agricultural products, though the high-value products appear the more modest effects compared to the other two. In sum, the real trade-weighted exchange rate is found to be the key determinant of U.S. agricultural trade balance in the long-term, rather than domestic or foreign income. We find that the three categories of agricultural products do indeed respond differently to exchange rate and income. For bulk and high-value products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to exchange rate and foreign income, while U.S. imports barely respond. For combined agricultural products, on the other hand, U.S. exports respond greatly to exchange rate, and U.S. imports behave significantly with respect to both of changes in exchange rate and foreign income; besides, the 1980s recession had significant effects on U.S. trade balance while the most recent recession had great impact on U.S. imports, showing the U.S. trade with ROW partners was mainly influenced by the two times economic crisis during our sample period.
    Keywords: Autoregressive distributed lag, recession effects, currency effects, agricultural trade., International Relations/Trade, Marketing, C22, F14, Q17,
    Date: 2015
  37. By: Thomas Eichner ; Rüdiger Pethig
    Abstract: This paper studies the formation of self-enforcing global environmental agreements in a world economy with international trade and two groups of countries that differ with respect to fuel demand and environmental damage. It investigates whether the signatories’ threat to embargo (potential) free riders secures all countries’ participation in the agreement. Resorting to numerical analysis, we find that an embargo may be unnecessary, ineffective or even counterproductive - depending on the degree of asymmetry and other parameters. On some subset of parameters, the embargo stabilizes the otherwise unstable global agreement, but the threat of embargo is not credible. However, in some of these cases credibility can be restored by suitable intra-coalition transfers.
    Keywords: embargo, trade, asymmetry, free rider, fuel demand, climate damage
    JEL: F02 Q50 Q58
    Date: 2014
  38. By: Fontagné, Lionel ; Fouré, Jean ; Keck, Alexander
    Abstract: Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: The emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South-South trade and diversification into skill-intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalization may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega-regionals could slow down, but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: For some countries, up-skilling will be crucial, for others labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced.
    Keywords: international trade,macroeconomic projections,CGE simulations
    JEL: E27 F02 F17 F47
    Date: 2014
  39. By: Schenker, Oliver ; Koesler, Simon ; Löschel, Andreas
    Abstract: In the last decades supply chains emerged that stretch across many countries. This has been explained with decreasing trade and communication costs. We extend the literature by analyzing if and how unilateral environmental regulation induces offshoring to unregulated jurisdictions. We first apply an analytical partial-equilibrium model of a two-stage production process that can be distributed between two countries and investigate unilateral emission pricing and its supplementation with border carbon taxes. To get a more comprehensive picture, we subsequently apply a computable general equilibrium model that includes a better representation of international supply chains. We find heterogeneous, but mostly positive effects of a unilateral carbon emission reduction by the European Union on the degree of vertical specialisation of European industries and explain these differences by heterogeneity in the emission-intensity and pre-policy vertical specialisation of sectors. Border taxes are successful in protecting upstream industries, but with negative side effects for downstream industries.
    Keywords: Unilateral Climate Policy,Border Carbon Taxes,Vertical Specialisation,Offshoring,Outsourcing,Computable General Equilibrium
    JEL: C68 F12 F18 Q58
    Date: 2014
  40. By: Josling, Tim ; Paggi, Mechel ; Wainio, John ; Yanazaki, Fumiko
    Keywords: Agribusiness, International Development,
    Date: 2015
  41. By: Raúl Serrano (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Universidad de Zaragoza ); Marta Fernández-Olmos (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Universidad de Zaragoza ); Vicente Pinilla (Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Universidad de Zaragoza )
    Abstract: : This paper studies the relationship between international diversification and performance in agri-food firms In line with the recent literature, it analyses the effects of the degree of internationalization using a uniform sample, a long-term focus and a measure that combines export intensity and regional diversification. The study empirically confirms the hypothesis of a horizontal S-curve relationship between diversification and performance and identifies three phases. Novice export firms are found in the first stage; their profits are low because they incur in the initial costs of exporting. Mature companies with a more advanced internationalization process are in the second stage; they benefit from the positive outcomes of operating at a larger scale. Lastly, the third stage contains internationally over-diversified companies; their performance decreases as a result of costs to enter extra-regional markets, which are especially steep in this sector, and dealing with greater organisational complexity
    Keywords: : Agribusiness, International diversification, Firm performance, Degree of Internationalization
    JEL: F23 L66 Q13
    Date: 2015–01
  42. By: Laroche Dupraz, Catherine ; Huchet Bourdon, Marilyne
    Abstract: The novelty of this paper is to use national rate of assistance (NRA) to assess the impact of domestic support on food security vulnerability to trade. We first build a theoretical framework linking the vulnerability of food security to trade and national policy intervention in agriculture. Second, we measure the impact of national policy responses to 2008 price surge using the NRA on importable food products for 42 countries over the period 1995-2010. Our results suggest that most developing countries have used their possibility to play with the NRA level to compensate the effects of the 2008 food price surge.
    Keywords: national rate of assistance, food security, exchange rate, food trade, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2014–08
  43. By: Neufeld, Nora
    Abstract: The paper chronicles the negotiating history of the recently concluded Trade Facilitation Accord. Analysing the various stages of the decade-long effort to get the Agreement off the ground, itAnalysing the various stages of the decade-long effort to get the Agreement off the ground, it examines what was at stake in the negotiations, how they evolved and why they finally succeeded - despite many obstacles and detours along the way. The study also suggests ways in which the exercise has broken new ground - for Trade Facilitation rule-making at the global level, for how WTO Members negotiate agreements, and for the world trading system as a whole.
    Keywords: WTO Agreement on Trade Facilitation,trade facilitation negotiations,negotiating history,multilateral trading system
    Date: 2014
  44. By: Réka Juhász
    Abstract: Can temporary protection from trade with advanced economies foster the development of 'infant industries' in developing countries? Reka Juhasz considers a natural experiment: Napoleon's wartime blockade of British exports, which allowed protected regions to build capacity in the new technology of mechanised cotton spinning and later to compete successfully in international markets.
    Keywords: Economic history, France, Great Britain, trade, industrialisation, technology
    Date: 2015–01
  45. By: Dharmasena, Senarath ; Wang, Jing ; Bessler, David A.
    Abstract: The consumption of milk in China has been increasing over past two decades. Currently, China does not produce enough milk to meet this increase in demand. Consequently a large volume of milk is imported. In this study, import demand for milk in China is explored using demand systems approach formulated through a vector error correction model (VECM). Additionally, import market integration is explored using contemporaneous causality structures developed through artificial intelligence and Direct Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) applied to innovations of VECM. Objectives of this study are to (1) Develop a VECM and test price homogeneity in the cointegration space; (2) Estimate almost ideal demand system model where prices are expressed in relative prices; (3) Calculate Chinese import demand elasticities for milk; and (4) Model import market integration using DAGs. Annual import volume (lbs) and total value ($US) of milk imported to China from Australia, New Zealand, United States and rest of the world, from 1992–2013 are collected from UN COMTRADE database. Calculated milk import demand elasticities shed light on the sensitivity of milk imports to changes in milk price of exporting country. Causality structure based off of innovations of VECM will allow us identify import market integration patterns. Preliminary results from causality structures reveal that the import share from the rest of the world is endogenous, while that of the United States, Australia and New Zealand was found to be weakly exogenous.
    Keywords: China milk demand, Directed acyclic graphs, dynamics, import demand, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F14, C81,
    Date: 2015–01
  46. By: Eaton, Derek
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of varying appropriability or strength of IPRs for agricultural seeds. Farmers are modelled as heterogeneous producers, purchasing seed from an innovating monopolist in a vertical product differentiation framework. The effects of IPRs on innovation are endogenized and the welfare of consumers assessed through the price for food. The theoretical analysis reveals some novel aspects of the traditional innovation versus diffusion tradeoff. Less productive producers, and also consumers, are better off with a moderate level of appropriability and lower level of innovation. The model is extended to a two country setting consisting of North and South.
    Keywords: innovation, intellectual property, product differentiation, trade, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  47. By: Esposti, Roberto ; Listorti, Giulia
    Abstract: This study deals with horizontal wheat price transmission from the international markets to the domestic Swiss market. The analysis takes into account trade policies implemented at the borders that might shelter the domestic market from international markets fluctuations, as well as the presence of explosive behavior in some of the price series. Furthermore, the Swiss case is peculiar due to the presence of different border policies for wheat according to its domestic use, food or feed. The paper investigates price transmission in this segregated domestic market under the respective different border policies but still acknowledging possible linkages among the two market segments. Vector Error Correction models with structural breaks are estimated, allowing to account for the influence of periods of market exuberance in the international markets as well as of the consequent policy regime changes.
    Keywords: Price transmission, price bubbles, cointegration, trade policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis,
    Date: 2014–08
  48. By: Priyadarshi, Shishir ; Biswas, Trineesh
    Abstract: This essay reviews the historical and ongoing role played by trade in sustained high growth and human development progress, and makes the case that the post-2015 development agenda should include considerations related to trade rules and supply-side capacity. Given the strong links between trade-led growth, economic upgrading, and poverty reduction, the paper argues that trade led economic growth must be prioritised in the post-2015 development agenda.
    Keywords: UN,Millennium Development Goals,Post-2015 Development Agenda,GATT WTO,trade,growth,development
    JEL: O1 O4 N4
    Date: 2014
  49. By: Hodjo, Manzamasso ; Acharya, Ram N.
    Abstract: Rice is one of the major food crop produced and consumed in Togo. Although it has the potential to produce more than it needs, Togo imports nearly 50 percent of domestic consumption. Realizing its potential for increasing household income and food security, the government has been encouraging domestic production through various farm support programs since early 1990s. Although these programs have achieved some success in increasing production, it has failed to keep up with the soaring market demand. Moreover, despite consistent efforts from the government, only about 20 percent of the land suitable for rice cultivation was producing paddy until 2007. Although most native varieties are in high demand and receive significantly higher prices than imported varieties, factors such as limited access to modern inputs, lack of market information, and rising cheap imports are the primary constraints for steady growth in domestic rice production. In this light, this study aims to evaluate the impact of rising imports on domestic rice production in Togo. A source differentiated import demand function is used to evaluate the impact of importing broken, brown, and milled rice on domestic production. Preliminary results show that imported broken rice is considered as an inferior good in Togo.
    Keywords: Rice, Production, Imports, Support programs, Togo, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2015
  50. By: Gene M. Grossman ; Elhanan Helpman
    Date: 2014–01
  51. By: Weeber, Joachim ; Becker, Amelie ; Elvers, Joost Henrik ; Fruggel, Kathrin ; Laouros, Anastasios ; Pergande, Katharina ; Ritz, Fabian ; Schmitt, Finja ; Werner, Christopher ; Wilkens, Marc ; Wulf, Arne
    Abstract: [TTIP – Ein Abkommen am Pranger?] Im Zuge der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise sind die vermeintlichen Vorteile internationalen Handels in Frage gestellt worden. Protektionistische Tendenzen zum Schutz der heimischen Volkswirtschaften fanden wieder den Weg in den Instrumentenkasten der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitiken. Einfuhrbeschränkungen von Waren und Kapitalverkehrskontrollen waren und sind Ausdruck von Unsicherheit und zunehmender Skepsis gegen die weiter fortschreitende Verflechtung der Staaten. Hinzu kommt Unbehagen gegenüber Großkonzernen und deren Einfluss auf Arbeitswelt und Gesellschaft. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird das beabsichtigte Freihandelsabkommen zwischen den Staaten der Europäischen Union (EU) und den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika (TTIP; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) in den Medien und bei der interessierten Öffentlichkeit zunehmend kritischer gesehen: "Freier Handel? Die meisten Kapitel dieses Abkommens werden mit Handel wohl gar nichts zu tun haben. Es geht um schleichende Liberalisierung durch die Hintertür." Vor allem die fehlende Transparenz wurde bemängelt, sodass die EU-Kommission mit der Schaffung der ‚TTIP-Advisory Group‘, die für mehr Transparenz in den TTIP-Verhandlungen sorgen soll, reagierte. Außerdem beschloss der damalige EU-Handelskommissar Karel de Gucht das Investitionskapitel der TTIP zur öffentlichen Konsultation freizugeben, woraufhin von der interessierten Öffentlichkeit Positionspapiere zu diesem Thema eingereicht und online zur Verfügung gestellt wurden. In diesem Arbeitspapier sollen zunächst die theoretischen Hintergründe des geplanten Freihandelsabkommen zwischen der EU und den USA skizziert werden. Ergänzt werden diese theoretischen Überlegungen durch eine kurze Datenanalyse, warum dieses Abkommen für Europa und speziell für Deutschland wichtig ist. Anschließend werden die im Abkommen diskutierten Maßnahmen aufgezeigt und systematisiert. Zudem wird gezeigt, an welchen Stellen das beabsichtigte Abkommen hinter möglichen, weitergehenden Vorstellungen eines freien Handels zurückbleibt – dies umfasst auch vernachlässigte Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftsbereiche. Die diskutierten Maßnahmen werden schließlich im Hinblick auf ihre Wirkungen untersucht. Dabei konzentriert sich die Analyse auf Auswirkungen für den beiderseitig wichtigen Wirtschaftsbereich der Automobilindustrie und die Konsequenzen für den Arbeitsmarkt. Schließlich werden noch die vielfach unbeachteten Auswirkungen für Drittstaaten, insbesondere Schwellenländer beschrieben.
    Date: 2014

This nep-int issue is ©2015 by Luca Salvatici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.