nep-int New Economics Papers
on All new papers
Issue of 2014‒09‒08
nineteen papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Firm performance and trade with low-income countries : Evidence from China By Schmerer, Hans-Jörg; Wang, Luhang
  2. Foreign Trade and Investments: Firm-Level Perspectives By Elhanan Helpman
  3. Trade obstacles, inventory level of inputs, and internationalization of enterprise activities : a comparison between Southeast Asia and Latin America By Ueki, Yasushi
  4. What Explains the Volume and Composition of Trade?: Industrial Evidence from a Panel of Countries By Åsa Johansson; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Eduardo Olaberría; Dario Pellegrino
  5. Aid for Trade: Assessing the Effects on Recipient Exports of Manufactures and Primary Commodities to Donors and Non-donors By Philipp Hühne; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnenkamp
  6. Impact of Sensitive Lists under SAFTA: Quantitative Assessment using a Partial Equilibrium Modeling By Shahid Ahmed; Sushil Kumar
  7. Bank Linkages and International Trade By Galina Hale; Christopher Candelaria; Julian Caballero; Sergey Borisov
  8. China and the Least Developed Countries: An Enquiry into the Trade Relationship during the Post-WTO Accession Period By Debapriya Bhattacharya; Farzana Misha
  9. Tunisian labor market responses to trade liberalization: A dynamic analysis By Charfeddine Lanouar; Zouhair Mrabet; Frederic Teulon
  10. An Update of the OECD International Trade Equations By Myriam Morin; Cyrille Schwellnus
  11. Matching, Sorting, and the Distributional Effects of International Trade By Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman; Philipp Kircher
  12. Linking FDI inflows to economic growth in North African countries By Anis Omri; Amel Sassi-Tmar
  13. The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption and Trade: Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa Countries By Mehdi Ben Jebli; Slim Ben Youssef; Ilhan Ozturk
  14. Antidumping echoing By Chrysostomos Tabakis; Maurizio Zanardi
  15. Why do Russian firms invest abroad? A firm level analysis By Anwar, Amar; Mughal, Mazhar
  16. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the Global Value Chain (GVC): Trends, Determinants and Challenges By Debapriya Bhattacharya; Khondaker Golam Moazzem
  17. Aid, Infrastructure, and FDI: Assessing the Transmission Channel with a New Index of Infrastructure By Julian Donaubauer; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnenkamp
  18. Paul Krugman et la nouvelle économie internationale By Frederic Teulon
  19. Informe MERCOSUR número 18 : Segundo semestre 2012 - Primer semestre 2013 By Schamis, Graciela; Ramos, Alejandro; Carciofi, Ricardo; Campos, Rosario; Gayá, Romina; Michalczewsky, Kathia; Lucángeli, Jorge; Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio

  1. By: Schmerer, Hans-Jörg (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Wang, Luhang
    Abstract: "Do firms in developing countries shift trade towards developed economies as a result of high economic growth? The matched customs-manufacturing firm data used in this study confront this hypothesized link with empirical evidence. Our analysis reveals a rising low-income country trade share around and after China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Based on this stylized fact, we analyze the link between firm characteristics and trade with low-income countries. We find evidence for sequential sorting into different export-modes according to firm-productivity: i) only the most productive firms export to low-income countries, ii) exporting to low-income countries is mostly coupled to exporting to high-income countries, and iii) firms that switch to export to markets with higher potential are younger than firms that switch to export to both high- and low-income markets. Moreover, we find that firms tend to start exporting through specialization on high-income markets before diversifying to both type of markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Export, Außenhandelsverflechtung, Entwicklungsländer, Industrieländer, China
    JEL: F1 O1
    Date: 2014–08–19
  2. By: Elhanan Helpman
  3. By: Ueki, Yasushi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of trade barriers such as customs clearance, subjective trade obstacles (customs and trade regulations), and inventory of inputs on the internationalization of enterprises in Southeast Asia and Latin America, using the World Bank's enterprise surveys. Empirical results show a negative association between the internationalization of enterprises and subjective trade obstacles, while the impact of subjective trade obstacles is not significant on enterprises already internationalized. An international comparison between Southeast Asia and Latin America suggests that enterprises in Latin America face unfavorable conditions that discourage them from becoming more closely inserted into international production networks.
    Keywords: Southeast Asia, Latin America, International trade, Exports, Business enterprises, Export propensity, Export intensity, Trade cost, Inventory control
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2014–08
  4. By: Åsa Johansson; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Eduardo Olaberría; Dario Pellegrino
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the importance of different determinants of trade at the industry level using a sample of 54 OECD and non-OECD economies. The empirical methodology extends the approach of previous empirical studies to explicitly quantify the impact that trading partners’ factor endowments and policies have on bilateral trade, and to analyse the effect of tariffs on the volume and composition of trade. We find that distance, common language, common border and regional trade agreements are important determinants of overall trade, and that factor endowments, policies and institutions, of both the exporter and its trading partners, are main determinants of what and where a country exports. By contrast, we find that trade policies based on tariffs on imported goods not only generate negative spillovers to trading partners by reducing their exports, but they are also likely to reduce exports of countries that impose the tariffs, in particular in industries that rely more on intermediate goods. Quels sont les déterminants du volume et de la composition des échanges? : Analyse empirique sur des données de panel de divers pays Ce document évalue l'importance des différents déterminants des flux commerciaux à un niveau industriel dans 54 pays membres et non membres de l’OCDE. La méthode empirique étend l'approche de travaux empiriques antérieurs à la quantification explicite de l’impact que les dotations factorielles des partenaires commerciaux et les politiques ont sur le commerce bilatéral et à l’analyse des effets des tarifs sur le volume et la composition des échanges. Nous constatons d’une part, que la distance, la langue et la frontière communes ainsi que les accords commerciaux régionaux sont autant de facteurs déterminants des échanges commerciaux et, d’autre part, que les dotations factorielles ainsi que les politiques et institutions des pays exportateurs et de leurs partenaires commerciaux ont une influence cruciale sur la composition des exportations et leur destination. En revanche, nous constatons que les politiques commerciales qui reposent sur les droits de douanes des biens importés nuisent, non seulement, aux partenaires commerciaux en réduisant leurs exportations mais peuvent aussi nuire à leurs propres exportations en particulier dans les industries qui dépendent davantage des biens intermédiaires.
    Keywords: trade, industry specialisation, intermediate input tariff, factor endowments, dotations en facteurs, commerce international, tarifs sur les intermédiaires importés, spécialisation industrielle
    JEL: C23 F14 O57
    Date: 2014–06–18
  5. By: Philipp Hühne; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnenkamp
    Abstract: Considering that primary commodity dependence continues to be a major problem of various lower income countries, we analyze whether Aid for Trade (AfT) has helped recipient countries upgrade and diversify their exports. Estimating an asymmetric and aggregated gravity model, we find that AfT has been effective in promoting recipient exports of manufactures – whereas the effects on primary commodities are typically insignificant. These findings hold not only for trade relations with donor countries but also in south-south trade with other developing countries
    Keywords: aid for trade, recipient exports, export diversification, south-south trade
    JEL: F35 F14
    Date: 2014–08
  6. By: Shahid Ahmed; Sushil Kumar
    Abstract: The long list of product in sensitive list maintained by the member countries is one of the major weaknesses of South Asia Free Trade agreement for its effectiveness. Present study analyzes the impact of sensitive list (Phase II) under the SAFTA at disaggregate level (HS6 digit) by using partial equilibrium modeling. This paper more specifically looked at consumer surplus, trade creation, trade diversion as well as impact on tariff revenues among India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as a result of removal of sensitive list. The study indicates positive effect on consumer surplus and trade flows; and negative effect on tariff revenues. RCA index indicated comparative advantage in textiles, machinery/ electric product, chemicals and allied products and metal products and different categories of textile products. The simulation results shows that aggregate total trade effect is US$ 902.82 million and a surge in export of crude oil, technically specified natural rubber, cotton, smoked sheets, articles of apparel and clothing accessories etc. Finally, the study recommended that each country should reduce the sensitive list.
    JEL: F13 F17
    Date: 2014–08–28
  7. By: Galina Hale; Christopher Candelaria; Julian Caballero; Sergey Borisov
    Abstract: This paper shows that bank linkages have a positive effect on international trade. A global banking network (GBN) is constructed at the bank level, using individual syndicated loan data from Loan Analytics for 1990-2007. Network distance between bank pairs is computed and aggregated to country pairs as a measure of bank linkages between countries. Data on bilateral trade from IMF DOTS are used as the subject of the analysis and data on bilateral bank lending from BIS locational data are used to control for financial integration and financial flows. Using a gravity approach to modeling trade with country-pair and year fixed effects, the paper finds that new connections between banks in a given country-pair lead to an increase in trade flow in the following year, even after controlling for the stock and flow of bank lending between the two countries. It is conjectured that the mechanism for this effect is that bank linkages reduce export risk, and four sets of results that support this conjecture are presented.
    JEL: F10 F15 F34 F36
    Date: 2013–12
  8. By: Debapriya Bhattacharya; Farzana Misha
    Abstract: In the post-WTO accession decade, China’s trade relationship with the least developed countries (LDCs) has undergone significant transformation. In this context, the present paper seeks to analyse trends, nature and determinants of the evolving trade relationship between China and the LDCs. The paper, based on a cross-section analysis, further intends to develop an understanding of this relationship in terms of its changing regional attributes and product composition. The analysis reveals that trade regime between China and the LDCs is characterised by high product concentration, regional orientation and positive trade balance in favour of China. As a part of the effort to explain the China-LDC trade performance, a basic gravity model has been used in the paper which shows that China’s entry into the WTO had both direct and indirect impact in promoting trade with the LDCs.
    Keywords: China, WTO accession, LDCs, China-LDC trade
    Date: 2013–08
  9. By: Charfeddine Lanouar; Zouhair Mrabet; Frederic Teulon
    Abstract: The impact of trade openness and technology transfer on the relative demand for skilled labor remains a puzzle. The empirical findings surrounding this question are in total contradiction with the prediction of traditional international trade theory. This paper addresses this puzzle by investigating the Tunisian economy. For this purpose, a database covering 12 Tunisian sectors from the period of 1983-2010, was constructed and a dynamic panel data method was employed. Empirical results indicate that trade openness positively affects skilled labor employment levels. Empirical results also show that the effects of changes in technology are ambiguous; on the one hand, advances in technology have positive effects mediated via export channels, but on the other hand, advances can have a negative effect mediated via imports. These empirical findings have important economic implications; for instance Tunisian economic policy should be oriented to improve a firm's competitiveness and labor market capacity to minimize the cost of trade liberalization in terms of employment losses.
    Keywords: Wages inequalities, technology change, skill upgrading, dynamic panel data model.
    Date: 2014–08–29
  10. By: Myriam Morin; Cyrille Schwellnus
    Abstract: This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments. The set of countries covered by the estimations has been significantly enlarged, with estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and trade prices presented for 41 countries, including countries that have recently joined the OECD (Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia) and major emerging countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). Reflecting the heterogeneity of countries included in the estimations, procedures for grouping them have been modified to allow for country specifics as much as possible. Structural breaks over the estimation period – which now typically covers the mid-1980s to 2012 and includes the global trade collapse of 2009 – are dealt with by the flexible modelling of deterministic trends, including the allowance for several rather than single trend reversals. Une mise à jour des équations de commerce international de l'OCDE Ce document fournit une description détaillée du travail de ré-estimation et re-spécification des équations de volume et de prix du commerce international qui sont utilisées dans le Département des affaires économiques de l'OCDE pour analyser et prévoir l'évolution du commerce international. L'ensemble des pays couverts par les estimations a été considérablement élargi : les estimations des facteurs affectant la performance à l'exportation, la pénétration des importations et les prix du commerce sont présentées pour 41 pays, y compris les pays qui ont récemment adhéré à l'OCDE (Chili, Estonie, Israël et Slovénie) et les grands pays émergents (Argentine, Brésil, Chine, Inde, Indonésie, Russie et Afrique du Sud). Afin de mieux refléter l'hétérogénéité des pays inclus dans les estimations, les procédures de regroupement des pays ont été modifiées pour prendre en compte les spécificités des pays autant que possible. Les ruptures structurelles au cours de la période d'estimation - qui maintenant couvre généralement le milieu des années 1980 jusqu’à 2012 et désormais comprend l'effondrement du commerce mondial de 2009 - sont traitées par la modélisation flexible de tendances déterministes qui permet de multiples points d’inflexion plutôt qu’un point unique d’inversion de tendance.
    Keywords: trade, trade forecasting, trade elasticity, élasticité du commerce, prévisions de commerce, commerce international
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2014–06–23
  11. By: Gene Grossman; Elhanan Helpman; Philipp Kircher
  12. By: Anis Omri; Amel Sassi-Tmar
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between FDI inflows and the economic growth for three African economies (Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt) during 1985–2011. Our analysis, which is based on a simultaneous equations model, reveals that in overall terms a mutually promoting two-way linkage between FDI and economic growth exists in these countries. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the two-way linkage between FDI inflows and economic growth has been verified in all three economies , i.e., high level of foreign direct investment inflows had accelerated economic growth and high economic growth in these economies does send positive signals to prospective foreign investors.
    Keywords: Economic growth; FDI inflows; GMM-estimator; North African countries.
    JEL: G20 H54 C36
    Date: 2014–08–29
  13. By: Mehdi Ben Jebli; Slim Ben Youssef; Ilhan Ozturk
    Abstract: Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this paper uses panel cointegration techniques to investigate the short and the long-run relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable energy consumption and trade openness for a panel of 24 Sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 1980-2010. The validity of the EKC hypothesis has not been supported for these countries. Short-run Granger causality results reveal that there is a bidirectional causality between emissions and economic growth; bidirectional causality between emissions and real exports; unidirectional causality from real imports to emissions; and unidirectional causality runs from trade (exports or imports) to renewable energy consumption. There is an indirect short-run causality running from emissions to renewable energy and an indirect short-run causality from GDP to renewable energy. In the long-run, the error correction term is statistically significant for emissions, renewable energy consumption and trade openness. The long-run estimates suggest that real GDP per capita and real imports per capita both have a negative and statistically significant impact on per capita CO2 emissions. The impact of the square of real GDP per capita and real exports per capita are both positive and statistically significant on per capita CO2 emissions. For the model with imports, renewable energy consumption per capita has a positive impact on per capita emissions. One policy recommendation is that Sub-Saharan countries should expand their trade exchanges particularly with developed countries and try to maximize their benefit from technology transfer generated by such trade relations as this increases their renewable energy consumption.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Renewable electricity consumption; International trade; Panel cointegration; Sub-Sahara.
    JEL: C33 F14 Q43 O55
    Date: 2014–08–29
  14. By: Chrysostomos Tabakis; Maurizio Zanardi
    Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of “echoing†in antidumping (AD) cases (i.e., different countries sequentially imposing AD measures on the same product from the same exporter). We develop a dynamic game in which two competing importers can choose to impose an AD duty on a third exporting country in one of two periods, if at all. Assuming that governments are politically motivated (favoring their import competing industries), we find that a country imposes an AD duty in the first (second) period independently of the other country’s actions if its political-economy parameter is “very high†(“highâ€). Instead, it never introduces AD measures when its political-economy parameter is below a critical “low†threshold. Echoing occurs for intermediate values of the political-economy parameter: a country chooses to impose an AD duty in the second period if and only if the competing importer has done so in the first period. Using a novel AD dataset, we document that echoing is a common practice among both traditional and new users of AD. In line with the conclusions of the theoretical model, the econometric results show that AD measures are more likely to be introduced in response to other countries’ measures when governments care to some extent, but not too much, about their import-competing industries. Thus, this paper shows that countries’ political-economy-driven trade policies are interdependent and should not be analyzed in isolation.
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Anwar, Amar; Mughal, Mazhar
    Abstract: This study examines the motives for Russian outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) around the world. Using firm-level data for Russian firms, home and host country economic, geographical, cultural and institutional drivers of Russian OFDI are analyzed. Findings show that Russian OFDI seems to be motivated by both the push and the pull factors. Results suggest market-seeking to be the main motive behind Russian outward foreign direct investments, followed by resource and technology acquisition, while efficiency-seeking does not appear to be a major objective. Compared with the pre-crisis period, Russian firms have been seeking more foreign investments since 2008. The study helps better understand the economic, geographical, cultural and institutional factors that Russian transnational corporations consider while planning investments abroad.
    Keywords: Outward Foreign Direct Investment; 2008 financial crisis; Russia
    JEL: F23 G01 O53
    Date: 2014–06–24
  16. By: Debapriya Bhattacharya; Khondaker Golam Moazzem
    Abstract: The present paper, based on a review of available literature and empirical evidence, has pointed out that the opportunities for the least developed countries (LDCs) to participate in the global values chains (GVCs) are expanding discernibly. However, the analyses show that the LDCs remain greatly handicapped in exploiting the full potential that the GVCs offer them due to their participation in low-value segment as well as the assymetric global governance structure of the value chains. Segment-specific analyses of participation in specific products indicate that the LDCs are facing multi-faceted challenges in the GVC process in terms of the production process, logistical and infrastructural requirements as well as complicated business processes. The paper has suggested some supportive measures, adoption of which could strengthen the position of the LDCs in GVCs, particularly in areas such as building productive capacity, development of trade-related infrastructure, access to inputs and logistical services, strengthening trade and industrial policies, and social upgrading.
    Keywords: LDCs, global value chains, business process, social upgradation
    Date: 2013–08
  17. By: Julian Donaubauer; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnenkamp
    Abstract: We raise the hypothesis that aid specifically targeted at economic infrastructure helps developing countries attract higher FDI inflows through improving their endowment with infrastructure in transportation, communication, energy and finance. By performing 3SLS estimations we explicitly account for dependencies between three structural equations on the allocation of sector-specific aid, the determinants of infrastructure, and the determinants of FDI. We find fairly strong and robust evidence that targeted aid promotes FDI indirectly through the infrastructure channel. In addition, aid in infrastructure appears to have surprisingly strong direct effects on FDI
    Keywords: aid effectiveness, sector-specific aid, foreign direct investment, infrastructure
    JEL: F21 F35 O18
    Date: 2014–08
  18. By: Frederic Teulon
    Abstract: Economiste américain, Paul Krugman a reçu le prix Nobel 2008 pour avoir analysé « les effets des économies d'échelle sur les modèles du commerce international et la localisation de l'activité économique ». Les nouvelles théories du commerce international qui justifient la mise en oeuvre de politiques commerciales dites « stratégiques » remettent en cause le caractère optimal du libreéchange généralisé.
    Keywords: Commerce international, Localisation des firmes, Paul Krugman, Politique industrielle.
    Date: 2014–08–29
  19. By: Schamis, Graciela (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Ramos, Alejandro (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Carciofi, Ricardo (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Campos, Rosario (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Gayá, Romina (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Michalczewsky, Kathia (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Lucángeli, Jorge (Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe, INTAL); Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio
    Abstract: Desde 1996, el Instituto para la Integración de América Latina y el Caribe del BID (BID-INTAL) ha publicado la edición anual del Informe MERCOSUR, con el objeto de documentar los aspectos más importantes del desarrollo económico y comercial de esta entidad regional, haciendo un recuento ordenado de los principales aspectos de su evolución durante el período del estudio. Este Informe Nº 18, corresponde al período comprendido entre el segundo semestre de 2012 y el primer semestre de 2013, y al igual que aquéllos que le precedieron, se inscribe dentro de un ámbito más amplio de actividades realizadas por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) orientadas a analizar y fortalecer los procesos de integración regional y multilateral de América Latina y el Caribe, como el del Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR), creado por el Tratado de Asunción y suscrito en 1991, que presentamos en esta oportunidad.
    JEL: F15 F21 F4 F5 O4
    Date: 2013–12

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