nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2014‒08‒16
twenty-one papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Università degli studi Roma Tre

  1. Trade Frictions and Market Access of Developing Countries : A Product-Level Empirical Investigation By Eugene Bempong-Nyantakyi; Steven Husted; Shuichiro Nishioka
  2. Markups, International Specialization, and the Gains from Trade By Ahmad Lashkaripour
  3. Trade and Uncertainty By Dennis Novy; Alan M. Taylor
  4. Innovative capacity and export perfor mance: Exploring heterogeneity along the export intensity distribution By Chiara Piccardo; Anna Bottasso; Luigi Benfratello
  5. The Critical Mass Approach to Achieve a Deal on Green Goods and Services: What is on the Table? How Much to Expect? By Jaime de MELO; Mariana VIJIL
  6. Import Competition, Domestic Regulation and Firm-Level Productivity Growth in the OECD By Sarah Ben Yahmed; Sean Dougherty
  7. Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Entrepreneurship: Blessing or Curse? By Saul Estrin; Seçil Hülya Danakol; Paul Reynolds; Utz Weitzel
  8. Preferentialism in Trade Relations : Challenges for the World Trade Organization By Patrick Low
  9. Long-term Patterns of Trade and Specialisation By Åsa Johansson; Eduardo Olaberria
  10. Tax Principles and Tariff-Tax Reforms By Kenji Fujiwara
  11. Technological Changes and Global Value Chains By Ramezan Ali Marvi
  12. Exports and Employment in China, Indonesia, Japan and Korea By Kozo Kiyota
  13. Special and Differential Treatment of Developing Countries in the WTO By Paola Conconi; Carlo Perroni
  14. Agricultural Trade, Biodiversity Effects and Food Price Volatility By Cecilia Bellora; Jean-Marc Bourgeon
  15. Determinants of direct cross-border public procurement in EU Member States By Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa; Lakatos, Csilla
  16. Political Determinants of the Extensive and Intensive Margins of International Arms Transfers By Florian Johannsen; Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso
  17. A Simple Model of Offshore Outsourcing, Technology Upgrading and Welfare By Jaewon Jung; Jean Mercenier
  18. Specification and Estimation of Gravity Models: A Review of the Issues in the Literature By Fatima Olanike Kareem; Olayinka Idowu Kareem
  19. Prospects for Constitutionalization of the WTO By Douglas R. Nelson
  20. International Migration: The Relationship with Economic and Policy Factors in the Home and Destination Country By Ben Westmore
  21. Land Grab in Africa: A Review of Emerging Issues and Implications for Policy Options By Ayodele F. Odusola

  1. By: Eugene Bempong-Nyantakyi (Whitworth University, School of Business); Steven Husted (University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics); Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virginia University, College of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of trade frictions, including tariffs and a variety of factors that raise trade costs, on export market access at the product level and, in particular, the role these frictions have on the ability of developing countries to access world markets. We find that a variety of trade frictions do serve to limit market access. We find distance and efficiency in trade facilitation are significant determinants of the probability of success in entering foreign markets. We examine whether there are any systematic development-related biases from these frictions that further limit market access for exporters from developing countries. Our results suggest that developing countries are not differentially impacted by these factors. In the spirit of an earlier study by Markusen and Wigle (1990), we also conduct a series of counterfactual exercises to see the impact of significant reductions in trade frictions on developing country market access. In contrast to their results, our findings show that reductions in tariffs do not greatly improve the number of new markets for developing countries. Our results suggest a traditional recommendation to resolve the market access problem for developing countries: expansion and diversification of the industrial base and productivity improvements in the handling of exports. Both are vital preconditions to increasing the number of export markets.
    Keywords: Trade Frictions, Market Access, Extensive Margin, Economic Development
    JEL: F12 F14 O19
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Ahmad Lashkaripour
    Abstract: This paper develops a new theory of international specialization that tractably combines all aspects of North-North and North-South trade into one model. The new theory also provides an alternative explana- tion for many other well-established facts, most notably the âWashington applesâ effect. The theory builds upon, and retains the central elements of Krugman [1980]. In the new framework, North-North trade is governed by national product differentiation. North-South trade is governed by a new channel of across product specialization that has been overlooked in the literature. Specifically, there are many products and each product comes in different varieties. Products differ in how (horizontally) differentiated they are. Monopolistically competitive firms charge a higher markup for varieties of highly differentiated products. In equilibrium, rich countries specialize in highly differentiatedâhigh markup products, while poor coun- tries specialize in less differentiatedâlow markup products. To quantify the gains from trade, I estimate the structural parameters of the model using disaggregated data. Incorporating the new channel of across- product specialization into the Krugman model magnifies the gains from opening to trade by around 200%. Despite trading less, low-income countries experience the largest gains from trade liberalization.
    JEL: F12 F14 O15 L25
    Date: 2014–07–31
  3. By: Dennis Novy; Alan M. Taylor
    Abstract: We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or foreign suppliers, but with higher costs in the latter case. Due to fixed costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of intermediates. We show that in response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally adjust their inventory policy by cutting their orders of foreign intermediates disproportionately strongly. In the aggregate, this response leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic economic activity. We confront the model with newly-compiled monthly aggregate U.S. import data and industrial production data going back to 1962, and also with disaggregated data back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and the cyclical behaviour of international trade.
    Keywords: Uncertainty shock, trade collapse, inventory, real options, imports, intermediates
    JEL: E3 F1
    Date: 2014–05
  4. By: Chiara Piccardo (Università di Genova); Anna Bottasso (Università di Genova); Luigi Benfratello (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF)
    Abstract: This paper sheds additional light on the relationship between firm level innovative capacity and export intensity. By drawing from the recent literature on exporters' heterogeneity, we apply quantile regression techniques to a sample of Italian firms in order to verify whether the effect of innovative capacity – measured by R&D expenditures – varies along the conditional distribution of the export intensity, after controlling for censoring and potential endogeneity of the innovation variable. We confirm that R&D expenditures positively affect export intensity and we find that such effect has a bell shaped pattern along its conditional distribution: firms characterized by export intensity of about 60% can take highest advantage from investing in R&D activity. Overall results prove to be robust to several specification checks and suggest not only that firms innovative capacity helps to explain heterogeneity in export intensity performance, but also that its positive effect differs across the export to sales ratio distribution.
    Keywords: Exports, R&D, quantile regression, endogeneity, distance to the frontier
    JEL: F14 O32 D22 C31 C36
    Date: 2014–08–04
  5. By: Jaime de MELO (Ferdi); Mariana VIJIL (French DG Treasury)
    Abstract: At the Davos forum of January 2014, a group of 14 countries pledged to launch negotiations on liberalising trade in ‘green goods’ (also known as`environmental goods’(EGs)), focussing on the elimination of tariffs for an ‘APEC list’ of 54 products. The paper shows that the ‘Davos group’, with an average tariff of 1.8%, has little to offer as countries have avoided submitting products with tariffs peaks for tariff reductions. Even if the list were extended to the 411 products on the ‘WTO list’, taking into account tariff dispersion, their tariff structure on EGs would be equivalent to a uniform tariff of 3.4%, about half the uniform tariff-equivalent for non EG products. Enlarging the number of participants to low-income countries might be possible as, on average, their imports would not increase by more than 8 percent. However, because of the strong complementarities between trade in Environmental Goods and trade in Environmental Services, these should also be brought to the negotiation table even though difficulties in reaching agreement on their scope are likely to be great.
    JEL: F18 Q56
    Date: 2014–06
  6. By: Sarah Ben Yahmed (IEP Aix-en-Provence - Sciences Po Aix - Institut d'études politiques d'Aix-en-Provence - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Aix-en-Provence - Aix Marseille Université - Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques [FNSP], GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR7316); Sean Dougherty (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, OCDE - Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques - OCDE)
    Abstract: This paper examines how import penetration affects firms' productivity growth taking into account the heterogeneity in firms' distance to the efficiency frontier and country differences in product market regulation.
    Keywords: Firm productivity growth ; Behind-the-border regulatory barriers ; Product market regulation ; Import competition, international trade
    Date: 2014–03–14
  7. By: Saul Estrin; Seçil Hülya Danakol; Paul Reynolds; Utz Weitzel
    Abstract: This paper explores the effects of foreign direct investment, measured by mergers and acquisitions, on domestic entrepreneurial entry. We use a micro‐panel of more than two thousand individuals disaggregated by industry in seventy countries including both developed and developing economies, 2000‐2009. The theory yields ambiguous predictions about the relationship between FDI and entrepreneurship; positive spillovers via dissemination of technology or negative because of crowding out. Our empirical analysis is conducted at three levels of aggregation. We find the relationship between FDI and domestic entrepreneurship in aggregate and intra‐industry to be negative. Policies need to consider how to counteract this effect.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, entrepreneurship, new firm entry, spillovers
    JEL: F23 M13 L26
    Date: 2014–05
  8. By: Patrick Low (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))
    Abstract: This paper argues that preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) are not substitutes, and while PTAs are without doubt here to stay, dispensing with a multilateral venue for doing business in trade matters is not a serious option. It is therefore necessary to seek out better accommodation between PTAs and the WTO than has been apparent to date. The law of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/WTO has systematically fallen short in imposing discipline on discriminatory reciprocal trade agreements, while procedural requirements, such as notifications, have been partially observed at best, and dispute settlement findings have tended to reinforce existing weaknesses in the disciplines. One approach to remedying this situation is to explore a different kind of cooperation—that of soft law. A soft law approach to improving coherence and compatibility between the WTO and PTAs may hold some promise, but the option also has its pitfalls.
    Keywords: Preferentialism in trade relations, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), WTO, soft law
    JEL: F1 F5 K3
    Date: 2014–05
  9. By: Åsa Johansson; Eduardo Olaberria
    Abstract: This paper presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to 2060, taking into account international spillovers. The paper highlights that comparative advantage in terms of factor endowments matters for trade specialisation, although framework and trade policies also play a role. For instance, tariffs on intermediate inputs are found to adversely affect trade with this adverse effect found to have increased over time, likely reflecting expanding global supply chains magnifying the impact of tariffs. The forward-looking analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions, reflecting faster growth in these countries. Multilateral global trade liberalisation could raise world trade by 15% by 2060 relative to the status quo, whereas regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries only would raise world trade by 4% due to trade diversion. Profils des échanges mondiaux et de la spécialisation Ce rapport présente des données descriptives concernant les tendances en matière de spécialisation et examine empiriquement ses causes et conséquences tout en analysant le rôle des politiques publiques à cet égard. À partir des enseignements tirés de l’analyse rétrospective, il établit ensuite des scénarios d’échanges mondiaux et de spécialisation jusqu’en 2060 en tenant compte des retombées internationales qu’ils pourraient avoir. Le rapport souligne que la spécialisation commerciale dépend de l’avantage comparatif que représente la dotation en facteurs de production, bien que les politiques générales et les politiques commerciales aient aussi leur importance. Par exemple, les droits de douane prélevés sur les biens intermédiaires s’avèrent préjudiciables aux échanges, cet effet s’accentuant au fil des ans. Cette évolution témoigne vraisemblablement du fait que le développement des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales amplifie l’incidence des droits de douane. L’analyse prospective laisse supposer qu’au cours des cinquante prochaines années, le centre géographique des échanges s’éloignera encore des pays de l’OCDE au profit de pays d’autres régions dont la croissance s’accélèrera. La libéralisation des échanges mondiaux multilatéraux pourrait entraîner une augmentation des échanges mondiaux de 15 % d’ici 2060 par rapport à la situation actuelle tandis que la hausse induite par la libéralisation régionale dans un groupe composé des grands pays de l’OCDE ne serait que de 4 % en raison de la réorientation des courants d’échanges.
    Keywords: trade liberalisation, trade policy, global value chains, Long-term trade and specialisation patterns, intermediate input tariffs, profils des échanges et de la spécialisation à long terme, chaine mondiale de production, libéralisation des échanges, droits de douane sur les biens intermédiaires
    JEL: F13 F14 F17 F43
    Date: 2014–07–04
  10. By: Kenji Fujiwara (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This paper develops a two-country general equilibrium model to examine the welfare effect of tariff-tax reforms that fix the world price. We show that this reform improves welfare if an origin tax is adjusted, but that it reduces welfare if a destination tax is used. Moreover, this result is reversed in the export tax case. In short, whether the proposed policy reform improves welfare depends on which between imports and exports are taxed as well as tax principles.
    Keywords: destination principle, origin principle, tariff-tax reform
    JEL: F11 F13 H2
    Date: 2014–08
  11. By: Ramezan Ali Marvi (Bocconi University and AMSE (Aix-Marseille School of Economics))
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the pattern of task and income distribution within a Global Value Chain. Using the recently developed WIOD database, collecting data on the trade in value added within a world Input/Output matrix, we reveal a high heterogeneity of countries in terms of their trends of skill premia. The latter is a stylized fact at odds with the assumption of a recent theoretical model of Global Value Chains (Costinot et al. [2013]), which we extend by allowing for different types of labor and different types of production stages. The model generates a pattern of vertical specialization in which the position of each country in the chain is a function of two factors: its productivity and skill intensity of its labor endowments. Moreover, the wage of each labor type depends on the position of the country, its skill intensity and productivity of skilled workers. As a result, depending on the model parameters and labor endowments, technological innovations will induce various trends in the relative position of countries, prices, wages and exports, in line with the stylized fact. The model thus represents a suitable candidate for addressing the heterogeneity of countries in terms of skill premia.
    Keywords: global value chains, technological changes, wage premium, vertical specialization
    JEL: F10 F16 F19
    Date: 2014–05–21
  12. By: Kozo Kiyota
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of exports on employment in China, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. It draws on input-output data for the period from 1995 to 2009 to estimate the effects on each industry's employment (i.e. direct effects) and on other industries' employment through intra-industry linkages (i.e. indirect effects). There are four major findings. First, at the aggregate level, the implied employment from exports increased in China, Japan and Korea. Second, at the industry level, exports and the shares of implied employment from exports increased in machinery-related industries such as Machinery (NEC), Electrical and Optical Equipment, and Transport Equipment in China, Indonesia and Korea. Third, although more than 80% of exports in the four study countries are from manufacturing industries, the employment effects are not limited to manufacturing industries. A significant number of workers in non-manufacturing industries depend upon manufacturing exports through vertical inter-industry linkages. Non-manufacturing industries account for between 40% and 60% of the implied employment from exports. Finally, in 2009, the share of implied employment from Chinese final demand exceeded that from the US final demand in both Japan and Korea. An implication of the overall results is that even in cases where an industry is not particularly directly export-oriented, the industry may still be subject to potential effects – positive or negative – of changes in export demand.
    Keywords: trade, employment, intra-industry linkages, exports
    JEL: F16
    Date: 2014–08–01
  13. By: Paola Conconi; Carlo Perroni
    Abstract: Rules on special and differential treatment (SDT) constitute the centerpiece of the WTO's strategy for integrating developing countries into the world trading system. We examine the theoretical rationale for SDT when trade liberalization in developing countries is impeded by a policy commitment problem. We show that SDT rules, if reconciled with the principle of reciprocity, can help developing countries to reduce trade barriers and improve their trading prospects.
    Keywords: Trade agreements, S&,D rules, commitment, reciprocity
    JEL: D72 D78 F13
    Date: 2014–05
  14. By: Cecilia Bellora (THEMA and INRA - UMR Economie Publique); Jean-Marc Bourgeon (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X, INRA - UMR Economie Publique)
    Abstract: Production risks in agriculture due to biotic elements such as pests create biodiversity effects that impede productivity. Pesticides reduce these effects but are damaging for the environment and human health. When regulating farming practices, governments weigh these side-effects against the competitiveness of their agriculture. In a Ricardian two-country setup, we show that free trade results in an incomplete production specialization, that restrictions on pesticides are generally more stringent than under autarky and that trade increases the price volatility of crops produced by both countries and some of the specialized crops. If biodiversity effects are large, the price volatility of all crops is larger than under autarky.
    Keywords: agricultural trade, food prices, agrobiodiversity, pesticides
    Date: 2014–07–29
  15. By: Kutlina-Dimitrova, Zornitsa (DG Trade); Lakatos, Csilla (DG Trade)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of direct cross-border public procurement in the EU Member States. For this purpose, we use a unique dataset based on obligatory data published on TED (Tenders Electronic Daily) which covers public procurement contract award notices for the period 2008-2012 and consists of more than 30 variables. Among others, results of the econometric estimation suggest that the probability of awarding a contract cross-border depends positively on the value of the contract awarded and negatively on the number of offers. Among awarding country characteristics, GDP per capita and euro-area membership are found to positively impact the probability of a cross-border award, while population and the share of government expenditure in total GDP have a negative influence. Barriers to trade (a proxy of tariff and non-tariff barriers) are shown to have a significant negative impact on cross-border awards while investment freedom (a proxy of openness to FDI) is found to have a positive effect on the probability of a cross-border win.
    Keywords: EU Member States; public procurement; international competition; econometric analysis
    JEL: F13 F14 H41 H57
    Date: 2014–07–29
  16. By: Florian Johannsen (University of Goettingen / Germany); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (University of Goettingen / Germany)
    Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to investigate the political determinants of international arms transfers. We distinguish between the decision to exports arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin). A theoretically-justified gravity model of trade augmented with political factors is estimated using a two-stage panel-data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period 1950 to 2007. As main political factors the level of democracy in the trading partners as well as the political orientation of the ruling governments are considered. Furthermore we account for the political differences between trading partners, the political environment differences in their respective regions and the existence of military pacts. The main results indicate that political closeness between countries is an important determinant of transfers in arms and that economic and strategic interests are not the only drivers of the transfers.
    Keywords: arms trade, political factors, democracy, conflict, gravity model, military pacts
    JEL: F14 F51
  17. By: Jaewon Jung (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise); Jean Mercenier (ERMES - Equipe de recherche sur les marches, l'emploi et la simulation - CNRS : UMR7017 - Université Paris II - Panthéon-Assas)
    Abstract: We adapt Yeaple's (2005) heterogeneous agents framework to model firms in the North as making explicit offshore outsourcing decisions to cheap-labor economies. Globalization results from a lowering of the set-up costs incurred when engaging in offshore activities. We highlight how firms' technology transformations due to globalization will induce skill upgrading in the North, increase aggregate productivity, average wages and therefore total welfare at the cost of increased wage inequalities. We analytically derive mild conditions under which all consumers--including lower-skilled workers--will nevertheless gain from the surge of offshore outsourcing. A parameterized version of the model roughly calibrated on U.S. data is then numerically explored and confirms our positive welfare predictions.
    Keywords: Offshore outsourcing ; Globalization ; Skill upgrading, Technology upgrading ; Firm heterogeneity
    Date: 2014–03–28
  18. By: Fatima Olanike Kareem; Olayinka Idowu Kareem
    Abstract: The gravity model has become an efficient tool in the analysis of international economic relations due to its theoretical derivation and ability to explain these relationships. The contending issue now is the appropriate specification and estimation techniques. This paper presents a review of current controversy surrounding the specification and estimation of gravity model with zero trade data, which we called ‘gravity modeling estimation debate’. Different positions in the literature were enunciated with the view of bringing the readers to the frontier of knowledge in this area of empirical strategies revolving on the gravity modeling in the presence of zero trade. By and large, the identification of the most appropriate estimation technique in the presence of zero trade is still an empirical issue. This paper deduced that the choice of the estimation technique should largely be based on the research questions, the model specification and the choice of data to be used for the analysis.
    Keywords: Gravity Model, Specification, Estimation, Debate
    JEL: C13 C51 F10
    Date: 2014–06
  19. By: Douglas R. Nelson
    Abstract: The WTO is regarded as one of the few successes of (proto-) constitutionalism in response to globalization. However, the rapid deepening of economic integration that has occurred in recent decades has meant that the relevant civil society is less obviously well-represented by nation-state representatives, while the expansion in WTO membership and its coverage implies a constitutional claim that neither the WTO process nor the resulting structure supports. This paper characterizes the challenges confronting the WTO through the lens of constitutionalization. It discusses the link between globalization and interest in the WTO; what constitutionalization might mean for the WTO; and considers two models of constitutionalization in the WTO: an “English” model of court made law without a discrete constitutional moment; and an “American” model of a constitutional convention.
    Keywords: WTO, global governance, constitutions, civil society
    Date: 2014–05
  20. By: Ben Westmore
    Abstract: Unfavourable demographic trends in many OECD countries threaten the sustainability of potential labour resources, GDP growth and fiscal positions. One factor that is expected to mitigate these trends is continued inflows of migrant workers from low income economies. However, a rapid catch-up in productivity and wages in these traditional source countries vis-à-vis the OECD may weaken economic incentives for migration and imply a transition away from current migration patterns. This paper uses data of the high-skilled and low-skilled migrant stock between 92 origin and 44 destination countries to highlight the relationship between economic factors and migration. The paper also attempts to uncover links with policy and demographic factors prevailing in the origin and destination countries. The analysis suggests that higher skill-specific wages in the destination country are associated with more migration. This relationship appears to be particularly strong for migrants from middle-income countries, supporting theories of an inverted-U relationship between origin country economic development and the propensity to migrate. Policy differences between the destination and origin also appear important, for example in terms of regulations on businesses and labour markets, along with the relative quality of institutions. In some instances, the effects on high-skilled and low-skilled migrants differ markedly. Combining the estimated coefficients from the model with the skill-specific wage profile from the OECD long-term growth projections highlights the potential for weaker future migrant flows to OECD countries than implied by past trends and embedded in official projections. Migrations internationales: Les liens avec le contexte économique et stratégique dans les pays d'origine et de destination Les tendances démographiques défavorables en vigueur dans de nombreux pays de l’OCDE mettent en péril la pérennité de la main-d’oeuvre, la croissance du PIB et les situations budgétaires. L’arrivée constante de travailleurs migrants en provenance d’économies à faible revenu est un facteur qui devrait atténuer ces tendances. Toutefois, ces pays sources traditionnels rattrapent rapidement les pays de l’OCDE sur le plan de la productivité et des salaires, ce qui risque d’affaiblir les incitations économiques à l’émigration et entraîner une modification des schémas de migration actuels. Les auteurs du présent document ont eu recours à des données relatives aux migrants hautement qualifiés et faiblement qualifiés représentant 92 pays d’origine et 44 pays de destination, afin de souligner les liens entre facteurs économiques et migrations. Ils se sont également attachés à mettre au jour les relations entre le contexte stratégique et les facteurs démographiques en vigueur dans les pays d’origine et de destination. Leur analyse tend à démontrer que des salaires plus élevés pour des emplois correspondant à des compétences spécifiques sont associés à des migrations plus nombreuses. Cette relation est particulièrement forte pour les migrants originaires de pays à revenu intermédiaire, un constat qui vient confirmer les théories selon lesquelles il existe une relation en U inversé entre le développement économique des pays d’origine et la propension à migrer. Les différences au niveau des politiques publiques entre les pays de destination et les pays d’origine semblent également importantes, par exemple pour ce qui est des réglementations applicables aux entreprises et de celles en vigueur sur le marché du travail, ainsi que la qualité relative des institutions. Dans certains cas, les effets sur les migrants hautement et faiblement qualifiés varient fortement. Si l’on combine les coefficients estimés du modèle et le profil des salaires correspondant à des compétences spécifiques établi à partir des projections de croissance à long terme de l’OCDE, on s’aperçoit que les flux de migrants en direction des pays de l’OCDE pourraient être plus faibles que les tendances antérieures et les projections officielles le laissent entendre.
    Keywords: economic development, international migration, labour economics, public policy, politique publique, développement économique, migration internationale, économie du travail
    JEL: F22 J01 O15
    Date: 2014–07–17
  21. By: Ayodele F. Odusola (MDG and Development Policy Adviser, UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa, New York)
    Abstract: Over the past decade, large-scale land acquisition in Africa has become quite intense, especially in DRC, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Sudan, Tanzania and Zambia. While African countries are motivated by the need to transform the agricultural sector and diversify their economies, the urge to meet the needs of future food and biofuel security, among others, underpins foreign interest. This divergence of interest makes the realisation of the prospective benefits elusive in Africa. Maximsing the benefits of large-scale land acquisition requires bold actions against the following structural impediments: (i) weak land governance and a failure to recognise, protect and properly compensate local communities? land rights; (ii) lack of country capacity to process and manage large-scale investments; (iii) foreign investors? proposals that are inconsistent with local and national visions; (iv) resource conflict with negative distributional and gender effects; and (vii) inadequate capacity to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of the project on local communities. This paper suggests a 10-point agenda for maximising the benefits of the land grab in Africa. (?)
    Date: 2014–04

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