nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2014‒01‒17
fifty-five papers chosen by
Luca Salvatici
Universita' di Roma 3

  1. Does migration foster exports ? evidence from Africa By Ehrhart, Helene; Le Goff, Maelan; Rocher?, Emmanuel; Singh, Raju Jan
  2. Missing Gains from Trade? By Marc J. Melitz; Stephen J. Redding
  3. The Possible Effects of Trans-Pacific Partnership on Turkish Economy By Oduncu, Arif; Mavuş, Merve; Güneş, Didem
  4. The Flow Model of Exports: An Introduction By Mazurek, Jiri
  5. Geographical Indication Regulation and Intra-Trade in the European Union By Zakaria Sorgho; Bruno Larue
  6. Verti-zontal differentiation in export markets By Francesco DI COMITE; Jacques-François THISSE; Hylke VANDENBUSSCHE
  7. Bailout policy in a globalized economy By Nelly Exbrayat; Thierry Madiès; Stéphane Riou
  8. Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade? By Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu
  9. Market Shares in the Wake of the Global Crisis: the Quarterly Export Competitiveness Database. By Gaulier, G.; Santoni, G.; Taglioni, D.; Zignago, S.
  10. Bilateral versus Multilateral Free Trade Agreements: A Welfare Analysis By Demet Yilmazkuday; Hakan Yilmazkuday
  11. Network Analysis of World Trade using the BACI-CEPII dataset. By De Benedictis, L.; Nenci, S.; Santoni, G.; Tajoli, L.; Vicarelli, C.
  12. Is Free Trade the End All Be All? The Case of Log Exports By G. Cornelis van Kooten
  13. Connecting Local Producers in Developing Countries to Regional and Global Value Chains: Update By Penny Bamber; Karina Fernandez-Stark; Gary Gereffi; Andrew Guinn
  14. A meta-analysis of economic diplomacy and its effect on international economic flows By Moons, S.J.V.; van Bergeijk, P.A.G.
  15. Taxing Mobile Capital in Free Trade Zones to the Detriment of Workers By Glenn P. Jenkins; Chun-Yan Kuo
  16. Does MFN Free Riding Plague the Information Technology Agreement? By SATO Hitoshi
  18. Offshoring and Sequential Production Chains: A General-Equilibrium Analysis By Philipp Harms; Jaewon Jung; Oliver Lorz
  19. Energy Prices and the Real Exchange Rate of Commodity-Exporting Countries By Magali Dauvin
  20. Trade, Self-Governance,and the Provision of Law and Order, with an Application To Medieval English Chartered Towns By Angelucci, Charles; Meraglia, Simone
  21. The Welfare Impact of Global Migration in the OECD Countries By Amandine AUBRY; Michal BURZYŃSKI
  22. Prospects for Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from British Columbia: An Application of Monte Carlo Cost-Benefit Analysis By Matt Zahynacz
  23. Business cycle synchronization and vertical trade integration: A case study of the Eurozone and East Asia By Ayako Saiki; Sunghyun Henry Kim
  24. Evaluating aid for trade : a survey of recent studies By Cadot, Olivier; ernandes, Ana; Gourdon, Julien; Mattoo, Aaditya; de Melo, Jaime
  25. Multinationals in Sub-Saharan Africa: Domestic Linkages and Institutional Distance By Lucia Pérez-Villar; Adnan Seric
  26. Modeling Forest Trade in Logs and Lumber: Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis By G. Cornelis van Kooten
  27. Institutions and economic growth: Summary and synthesis By Szirmai, Adam
  29. To Ban or Not to Ban: Foreign Lobbying and Cross National Externalities By Toke Aidt; Uk Hwang
  30. Temporal Aggregation and Systematic Sampling Effects on Non Linear Granger Causality Tests between Trade Volume and Returns. Some Monte Carlo and Empirical Results from the Athens Stocks Exchange. By Dikaios Tserkezos
  31. Labor market polarization and international macroeconomic dynamics By Mandelman, Federico S.
  32. Tradable Services: Canada’s Overlooked Success Story By Daniel Schwanen
  33. International Human Trafficking: Measuring clandestinity by the structural equation approach By Friedrich Schneider; Alexandra Rudolph
  34. International Technology Diffusion of Joint and Cross-border Patents By Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.; Tang, J-T.
  35. Origin of FDI and domestic productivity spillovers: does European FDI have a ‘productivity advantage’ in the ENP countries? By Vassilis Monastiriotis
  36. Not so demanding: Preference structure, firm behavior, and welfare By Peter Neary; Monika Mrazova
  37. Financing U.S. External Trade, 1790-1819 By Javier Cuenca-Esteban
  38. Embodied Carbon Tariffs By Christoph Böhringer; Jared C. Carbone; Thomas F. Rutherford
  39. Foreign direct investment into transition economies: Are the Balkans different? By Saul Estrin; Milica Uvalic
  40. How portable is social security for migrant workers? By Taha, N.; Messkoub, M.; Siegmann, K.A.
  41. Crime and International Tourism By Duha T. Altindag
  42. Determinants of Technology Transfer through CDM: the Case of China By Matthias Weitzel; Wan-Hsin Liu; Andrea Vaona
  43. Over the Hedge: Do Exporters Practice Selective Hedging? By Richard Fabling; Arthur Grimes
  44. Social Media and Migration Research By McGregor, Elaine; Siegel, Melissa
  45. The fiscal consequences of unrestricted immigration from Romania and Bulgaria By Joakim Ruist
  46. The Strategic Value of Carbon Tariffs By Christoph Böhringer; Jared C. Carbone; Thomas F. Rutherford
  47. Eco labels and tourism flows: How much is a Blue Flag worth? By S. Capacci; A. E. Scorcu; L. Vici
  48. Migrant Networks and the Spread of Misinformation By Benjamin Elsner; Gaia Narciso; Jacco J. J. � Thijssen
  49. German Economic Models, Transnationalization and European Imbalances By Hans-Michael Trautwein; Finn Marten Körner
  50. Human Capital Formation and International Trade By Gregory Upton Jr.
  51. Border Studies By Donzelli, S.
  52. Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them By Jonathan David Ostry; Atish R. Ghosh
  53. Climate change and migration By Gómez, O.
  54. The determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings By Faruk Balli; Syed Abul Basher; Faisal Rana
  55. Measuring the Value of Time in Freight Transportation By KONISHI Yoko; Se-il MUN; NISHIYAMA Yoshihiko; Ji Eun SUNG

  1. By: Ehrhart, Helene; Le Goff, Maelan; Rocher?, Emmanuel; Singh, Raju Jan
    Abstract: This paper aims at assessing the impact of migration on export performance and more particularly the effect of African migrants on African trade. Relying on a new data set on international bilateral migration recently released by the World Bank spanning from 1980 to 2010, the authors estimate a gravity model that deals satisfactorily with endogeneity. The results first indicate that the pro-trade effect of migration is higher for African countries, a finding that can be partly explained by the substitution between migrants and institutions (the existence of migrant networks compensating for weak contract enforcement, for instance). This positive association is particularly important for the exports of differentiated products, suggesting that migrants also play an important role in reducing information costs. Moreover, focusing on intra-African trade, the pro-trade effect of African migrants is larger when migrants are established in a more geographically and ethnically distant country. All these findings highlight the ability of African migrants to help overcome some of the main barriers to African trade: the weakness of institutions, information costs, cultural differences, and lack of trust.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Free Trade,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2014–01–01
  2. By: Marc J. Melitz; Stephen J. Redding
    Abstract: The theoretical result that there are welfare gains from trade is a central tenet of international economics. In a class of trade models that satisfy a "gravity equation," the welfare gains from trade can be computed using only the open economy domestic trade share and the elasticity of trade with respect to variable trade costs. The measured welfare gains from trade from this quantitative approach are typically relatively modest. In this paper, we suggest a channel for welfare gains that this quantitative approach typically abstracts from: trade-induced changes in domestic productivity. Using a model of sequential production, in which trade induces a reorganization of production that raises domestic productivity, we show that the welfare gains from trade can become arbitrarily large.
    Keywords: Productivity, Sequential Production, Welfare Gains from Trade
    JEL: F10 F11 F15
    Date: 2014–01
  3. By: Oduncu, Arif; Mavuş, Merve; Güneş, Didem
    Abstract: Due to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have started to establish Free Trade Agreements (FTA). In this context, twelve countries including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States (US) and Vietnam have decided to establish Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This study focuses on the impacts of this partnership on Turkish economy. By using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model, the effects of various scenarios on GDP and exports are studied. Obtained results show that Turkey could be in a loss up to 1% of GDP if present 12 countries establish the TPP. Otherwise, potential countries’ inclusions in TPP could cause higher losses – up to 2.4% of GDP- for Turkey.
    Keywords: Free Trade Agreements, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Turkey.
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2014–01
  4. By: Mazurek, Jiri
    Abstract: The aim of the paper is to propose a new simple frictionless model of international trade shares as an alternative to standard gravity models. In the proposed model (total) shares of export from a given country depend only on a gross domestic product and a distance of importing countries. The model is examined by a linear regression with corrected heteroscedasticity for the latest export data from Germany and the Czech Republic. Results show that the model is very successful in explaining export shares with coefficients of determinacy 0.75 and 0.98 respectively.
    Keywords: export; Czech Republic; Germany; gravity model; international trade
    JEL: C51 F14 F17
    Date: 2014–01–13
  5. By: Zakaria Sorgho; Bruno Larue
    Abstract: Protection of indications of geographical origin (GIs) can reduce information asymmetry between producers and consumers, and potentially enhance trade. However, GIs can also possibly divert trade. We rely on panel data about agri-food trade among the 27 countries of the European Union to investigate these issues using variations of estimators proposed by Head and Mayer (2000) and Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006). Our findings suggest that the protection of GIs creates trade when the importing and exporting countries have GI-protected products. There is also empirical evidence regarding a trade-diverting effect when the importing country does not have GIs and a border enlargement effect arising from European GI-protection.
    Keywords: Geographical Indications, European Union, Agri-Food Trade, Gravity Model
    JEL: F14 Q18
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Francesco DI COMITE; Jacques-François THISSE; Hylke VANDENBUSSCHE
    Abstract: Many trade models of monopolistic competition identify cost efficiency as the main determinant of firm performance in export markets. To date, the analysis of demand factors has received much less attention. We propose a new model where consumer preferences are asymmetric across varieties and heterogeneous across countries. The model generates new predictions and allows for an identification of horizontal differentiation (taste) clearly distinguished from vertical differentiation (quality). Data patterns observed in Belgian firm-product level exports by destination are congruent with the predictions and seem to warrant a richer modelling of consumer demand.
    Date: 2013–12
  7. By: Nelly Exbrayat (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon); Thierry Madiès (Université de Fribourg, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales - Université de Fribourg); Stéphane Riou (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon)
    Abstract: This paper explores how trade integration influences the decision by national governments to bailout manufacturing firms. We develop a 2-country model of generalized oligopoly with heterogenous firms and trade costs. High-cost firms are eligible for a bailout while low-cost firms are profitable. Our results show that trade liberalization influences both political benefits of a bailout and its relative cost as compared to a laissez-faire policy. If the fall in trade cost is so large that it allows high-cost firms to become exporters, governments might move away from a bailout policy to a laissez-faire policy. In contrast, a marginal decline in trade costs that does not affect the export status of high-cost firms, always makes governments more prone to adopt a bailout decision.
    Keywords: soft-budget constraint; tax competition; heterogenous firms; trade cost; location
    Date: 2014–01–07
  8. By: Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu
    Abstract: The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
    Keywords: Domestic investment;China;Sub-Saharan Africa;Exports;Trade;Spillovers;China, sub-Saharan Africa, investment, trade, spillover, panel data, econometrics
    Date: 2013–12–17
  9. By: Gaulier, G.; Santoni, G.; Taglioni, D.; Zignago, S.
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, international trade has become a privileged engine of growth for much of the developing world. In the wake of the global crisis, countries must pay close attention to their positioning on the global map of trade and production and become aware of how they fare relative to competitors and to their past export performance. To which extent changes in their market shares are driven by exporter own supply-side capacity as opposed to external or compositional factors, dues to their product and geographical specialization? This paper uses quarterly data, covering all exchanges flows at the product level since 2005, to compute indicators of export performance stripped of compositional effects. The resulting Export Competitiveness Database (ECD) reveals that emerging and developing regions, particularly the Asia and Pacific one, had strongest capacity to gain market shares in the most recent period, with changes reflecting growth in export volumes rather than price developments (once controlled for the composition effects). In contrast, ECD indicators also trace the legacy of the double-dip recession in the euro area, which have turned into negative the geographical effects of the traditional intra-zone specialization, despite the generally positive effects of sectoral structure. These measures of competitiveness correlate to nominal and real effective exchange rates, factors that are commonly perceived as important determinants of a country’s export competitiveness.
    Keywords: export competitiveness, trade performance, shift-share decomposition.
    JEL: F10 F14 F40 C43
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Demet Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University)
    Abstract: Why do we observe proliferation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) between certain types of countries instead of having progress in attaining global free trade through a multilateral FTA? We answer this question by exploring the enforceability of di¡èerent types of FTAs through comparing minimum discount factors that are necessary to sustain them in an in?nitely repeated game framework. We also search for the globally welfare maximizing trade agreements that are sustainable under different conditions. The results depict that transportation costs, differences in country sizes and comparative advantages are all obstacles for having a multilateral FTA. Accordingly, international development policies conducted for the removal of such obstacles should be the main goal toward achieving a multilateral FTA, which we show to be the ?rst-best solution to the maximization problem of global welfare.
    Keywords: Free Trade Agreements; Self-Enforcing Rules; Transportation Costs; Country Size; Comparative Advantage; Repeated Game
    JEL: C72 C73 D60 F15
    Date: 2014–01
  11. By: De Benedictis, L.; Nenci, S.; Santoni, G.; Tajoli, L.; Vicarelli, C.
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the BACI-CEPII database using Network Analysis. Starting from the visualization of the World Trade Network, we then define and describe the topology of the network, both in its binary version and in its weighted version, calculating and discussing some of the commonly used network's statistics. We finally discuss some specific topic that can be studied using Network Analysis and International Trade data, both at the aggregated and sectoral level. The analysis is done using multiple software (Stata, R, and Pajek). The scripts to replicate part of the analysis are included in the appendix, and can be used as an hands-on tutorial. Moreover, the World Trade Network local and global centrality measures, for the unweighted and the weighted version of the Network, calculated using the bilateral aggregate trade data for each country (178 in total) and each year (from 1995 to 2010,) can be downloaded from the CEPII webpage.
    Keywords: International trade, Network Analysis, Density, Centrality, Stata, R, Pajek.
    JEL: F11 F14
    Date: 2013
  12. By: G. Cornelis van Kooten
    Abstract: The government of British Columbia imposes restrictions on the export of logs from public and private forestlands, primarily to promote local processing and associated employment benefits. Economists wholeheartedly oppose BC’s export restrictions, arguing that BC’s citizens are worse off as a result of the government’s measures. In this paper, it is shown that, while free trade in logs might well maximize global wellbeing, it might not necessarily result in the greatest benefit to British Columbia. Indeed, both economic theory and a follow-up numerical analysis indicate that some restrictions on the export of logs can lead to higher welfare for BC than free trade.
    Keywords: international trade; log exports; forest industry; quota rents
    JEL: F13 F14 Q23 Q27 Q28
    Date: 2014–01
  13. By: Penny Bamber; Karina Fernandez-Stark; Gary Gereffi; Andrew Guinn
    Abstract: This report analyzes the specific factors that affect the competitiveness of developing countries in global value chains (GVCs), and how these factors differ across four major economic sectors: agriculture, extractive industries, manufacturing and offshore services. Although integration into GVCs allows firms in developing countries to participate in international trade without developing the full range of capabilities required to produce a product or service, it will not automatically translate into positive development gains from trade without the appropriate policies to build productive capacity and ensure inclusive growth and upgrading capabilities. In order to inform these policies, it is necessary to identify the various local factors that affected the capacity of developing countries to meet GVC and RVC requirements, including their productive capacity, infrastructure and services, the business environment, trade and investment policies and industry institutionalization. The report identifies the need for further data and analysis in many areas, in particular the trade-related policy implications of TiVA-GVCs for developing countries, including emerging economies. This would provide a starting point for the discussion of the domestic policies and actions needed to promote and support developing countries’ beneficial participation in value chains and inform aid for trade interventions promoting effective integration into markets via GVCs.
    Keywords: competitiveness, productive capacity, trade integration, inclusive growth, developing countries, global and regional value chains
    JEL: F13 F15 F16 F21 F23 F35
    Date: 2014–01–08
  14. By: Moons, S.J.V.; van Bergeijk, P.A.G.
    Abstract: This meta-analysis deals with 29 empirical studies on the trade and investment impact of economic diplomacy (embassies, consulates and other diplomatic facilities, investment and export promotion offices, trade and state visits). The meta-regression results suggest that the significance of the coefficient of economic diplomacy is more pronounced when studies use embassies as an explanatory variable as compared to studies using consulates, trade missions, state visits and export promotion agencies. If the primary dependant variable under investigation is exports one may also expect to find more significant coefficients then in an otherwise similar regression explaining the relation between economic diplomacy and imports, total trade or foreign direct investment. Furthermore empirical design factors play a role in the reported results of the studies we reviewed. Studies based on a single country will in general show lower significance.
    Keywords: Meta-analysis, economic diplomacy, international flows, trade, FDI
    Date: 2013–10–01
  15. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Chun-Yan Kuo (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada)
    Abstract: Many countries exempt the income of firms operating in their free trade or export processing zones from corporate income taxation. This paper examines both theoretically and empirically the incidence of removing this exemption. The empirical analysis is carried out for the Dominican Republic. The findings indicate that removal of the corporate income tax exemption would inflict a burden on relatively low-waged workers of over nine times the amount of additional tax revenue collected from the companies operating in the country's free trade zones. In turn, this loss would largely be a gain to the more advantaged groups in society.
    Keywords: WTO, tax incidence, free trade zones, corporate income taxation, Dominican Republic
    JEL: F13 H22 O24 O54
    Date: 2013–12
  16. By: SATO Hitoshi
    Abstract: The Information Technology Agreement (ITA), enacted in 1997 as one of a few World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements realized after the Uruguay Round, lifted tariffs on a broad range of IT products such as telecommunication equipment and computers. As part of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/WTO system, the ITA is built on the most-favored nation (MFN) principle. However, since participation is not mandatory, any WTO member country can potentially free ride on the agreement. This paper empirically explores the extent to which the ITA has boosted trade in IT products. It then asks to what extent, if at all, the MFN free-rider problem has hampered the ITA's success. Using panel data on bilateral trade among 160 countries over the 1993-2007 period, we find that the ITA's trade creation effect can be observed for imports by developing countries. However, the result is fragile and depends on empirical specifications. When multilateral resistance is more appropriately controlled, the ITA's trade creation effect becomes weak or even disappears. Interestingly, there is little evidence demonstrating the existence of the MFN free-rider problem even when the trade creation effect was observed.
    Date: 2014–01
  17. By: Božić, Dragica; Nikolić, Marija M.
    Abstract: The agrarian sector plays an important role for the overall economic development of Serbia as shown by the main macroeconomic indicators, including the contribution to equilibrium of payment and trade balance of the country. Serbia has a large trade deficit, therefore the agrarian sector, which is constantly (starting from 2005) achieving a positive trade balance, has an important role in overcoming the unfavourable condition of Serbian foreign trade. The share of this sector in Serbia’s total exports is increasing and in recent years exceeds 20 percent. The goal of this paper is to establish the importance of the agrarian sector in the total foreign trade of Serbia, as well as its comparative advantages on the markets of major trading partners (EU, CEFTA-2006 and some members, and countries in the neighbourhood) between 2004-2011. In the first part of the paper we analyse the importance and participation of the agrarian sector in the total foreign trade of the Serbian economy. The second part includes the basic flows, developing trends and the structure of foreign trade of the agrarian sector in Serbia by products and by most significant trading partners. Then, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA – Revealed Comparative Advantage) index, which was used for the analysis of the position and comparative advantages of the agricultural sector, is determined.
    Keywords: agrarian sector, foreign exchange, revealed comparative advantage, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Q17,
    Date: 2013–09
  18. By: Philipp Harms (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz); Jaewon Jung (RWTH Aachen University); Oliver Lorz (RWTH Aachen University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a two-sector general equilibrium trade model which includes offshoring, sequential production, and endogenous market structures. We analyze how relative factor endowments and various forms of globalization and technological change affect equilibrium offshoring patterns. We show that, against common belief, a reduction in trade costs lowers the range of tasks offshored even though the aggregate volume of offshoring may increase.
    Date: 2014–01
  19. By: Magali Dauvin (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West Nanterre-la Défense, France)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and the real effective exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. We consider two sets of countries: 10 energy-exporting and 23 non-fuel commodity-exporting countries over the period 1980-2011. Estimating a panel cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, we provide evidence for the existence of "energy currencies". Relying on the estimation of panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models, we show that there exists a certain threshold beyond which the real effective exchange rate of both energy and commodity exporters reacts to oil prices, through the terms-of-trade. More specifically, when oil price variations are low, the real effective exchange rates are not determined by terms-of-trade but by other usual fundamentals Nevertheless, when the oil market is highly volatile, currencies follow an "oil currency" regime, terms-of-trade becoming an important driver of the real exchange rate.
    Keywords: Energy Prices, Terms-of-Trade, Exchange Rate, Commodity-Exporting Countries, Panel Cointegration, Nonlinear Model, PSTR
    JEL: C33 F31 Q43
    Date: 2013–12
  20. By: Angelucci, Charles; Meraglia, Simone
    Abstract: We build a model to investigate the interaction between trade, the supply of law and order, and the nature of governing political institutions. To supply law and order necessary for a representative merchant to create wealth, a ruler (i) appoints officials capable of coercion and (ii) introduces a system of taxation. When potential gains from trade are important, the demand for law and order is high but appointing numerous officials capable of coercion may pave the way to arbitrary and distortive expropriation. Delegating the task of appointing offi- cials to the better-informed merchant lowers the cost of sustaining good market institutions, but exacerbates the latter's temptation to escape taxation. When gains from trade are instead low delegation never occurs. Our theory provides a rationale for the case of post-Norman Conquest England (1066-1307) where, in parallel with the rise of trade, kings increasingly give in to the citizens' desire of self-governance by granting Charters of Liberties.
    Keywords: Institutions, Law Enforcement, Trade, Delegation, Taxation, Bureaucracy
    JEL: D02 D23 D73 P14 P16
    Date: 2013–10–23
  21. By: Amandine AUBRY (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Michal BURZYŃSKI (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and Poznan University of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the impact of global migration on the welfare of native workers in the OECD countries. We develop a multi-country, general equilibrium model with trade and migration. Labor is assumed to be heterogeneous, whereas the wages, prices, trade flows, the mass of varieties of goods and the TFP levels are endogenized. The issue of the redistribution is also examined. The main result of this paper is the quantification of the welfare effects of migration for different groups of workers. These outcomes depend substantially on the size and the structure of migration in the OECD countries, and vary with educational levels of migrants. We consider the overall effect as a sum of three channels: the market size, wage and TFP effects. The key finding is that the market size effect plays a vital role in determining the benefits and costs of migration. Its consequences are prone to spillovers due to the international trade. Analyzing the shocks on the stock and the 1990-2000 flow of migrants, we discuss different patterns of the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of non-OECD (South-North) and OECD (North-North) migration. Nearly all the OECD countries benefit from the South-North migration. On the contrary, there are only few economies which are gaining from the North-North migration. Finally, we confirm a common belief that migration increases inequality between poor and wealthy citizens of the OECD countries, although this effect is mainly due to the intra-OECD emigration.
    Keywords: migration, market size, inequalities, general equilibrium, brain drain
    JEL: C68 F22 J24
    Date: 2013–12–24
  22. By: Matt Zahynacz
    Abstract: British Columbia’s natural gas industry is currently facing competitive pressures from other gas-producing jurisdictions in North America. The emergence of shale gas developments has resulted in natural gas prices falling dramatically. Nonetheless, British Columbia is positioned to take advantage of growing markets in Asia that have considerably higher prices than in North America through the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in carrier ships. This paper aims to assess the economic viability of an LNG industry in British Columbia by analyzing world LNG prices and trade, market development, and costs through a Monte Carlo risk assessment.
    Keywords: LNG trade, natural gas as coal replacement, Monte Carlo simulation, shale gas
    JEL: Q37 Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2013–04
  23. By: Ayako Saiki; Sunghyun Henry Kim
    Abstract: Business cycle synchronization is an important condition for a currency union to be successful. Frankel and Rose (1998) showed empirically that increased trade would have a positive impact on business cycle correlation while acknowledging the theoretical ambiguity on the relationship. Based on their finding, they claimed that the Eurozone’s optimal currency criteria (OCA) can be satisfied ex-post. In this paper, we first investigate whether the Eurozone exhibits more synchronized business cycles since the adoption of the euro. Then, we attempt to link the business cycle synchronization with trade integration. Our new contribution is that we examine the role intra-industry trade (IIT), and vertical IIT (V-IIT), in business cycle synchronization using the data of two sets of countries, Eurozone and East Asia that have been going through distinctively different kinds of economic integration. Our main findings are as follows. First, our empirical results suggest that the business cycle correlation increased over time, in both the Eurozone and East Asia, but synchronization has been progressing much faster in East Asia. Also, with respect to trade, intra-regional trade intensity in various measures has risen in East Asia but fallen in the Eurozone in recent years, perhaps due to the rise of China as an important trade partner for Europe. Second, unlike Frankel and Rose (1998), we find that the impact of increased trade intensity on business cycle correlation is ambiguous. This could be due to the fact that trade among countries with different factor endowment – e.g. countries within East Asia, among the Eurozone’s old and new member states – may dampen the business cycle correlation via increased specialization in different industries that receive different shocks. Instead, IIT, in particular V-IIT, unambiguously increased business cycle correlation in both regions. Vertical IIT increased substantially over the last few decades in East Asia but not in the Eurozone, which is consistent with the rapid increase in business cycle correlation in East Asia.
    Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; global integration; intra-industry trade; currency union
    JEL: F15 F41 F42 F44
    Date: 2014–01
  24. By: Cadot, Olivier; ernandes, Ana; Gourdon, Julien; Mattoo, Aaditya; de Melo, Jaime
    Abstract: The demand for accountability in aid-for-trade is increasing but monitoring has focused on case studies and impressionistic narratives. The paper reviews recent evidence from a wide range of studies, recognizing that a multiplicity of approaches is needed to learn what works and what does not. The review concludes that there is some support for the emphasis on reducing trade costs through investments in hard infrastructure (like ports and roads) and soft infrastructure (like customs). But failure to implement complementary reform -- especially the introduction of competition in transport services -- may erode the benefits of these investments. Direct support to exporters does seem to lead to diversification across products and destinations, but it is not yet clear that these benefits are durable. In general, it is difficult to rely on cross-country studies to direct aid-for-trade. More rigorous impact evaluation is an underutilized alternative, but situations of clinical interventions in trade are rare and adverse incentives (because of agency problems) and costs (because of the small size of project) are a hurdle in implementation.
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Common Carriers Industry,Transport and Trade Logistics
    Date: 2014–01–01
  25. By: Lucia Pérez-Villar; Adnan Seric
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of institutional distance in the establishment of domestic linkages by multinational enterprises in a cross- section of 19 Sub- Saharan countries. Investors’ familiarity with formal and informal procedures in the host country lowers uncertainty and facilitates networking with local firms. Hence, a similar degree of institutional development boosts linkages between domestic firms and multinationals. Using a novel dataset from the 2010 Africa Investor Survey by UNIDO we find that institutional distance in terms of contract enforcement deters the domestic linkage in host countries with worse institutions relative to the origin country. Additionally, institutional distance matters more for multinationals from the north. The paper sums to the literature on domestic linkages by including the understudied institutional dimension, to the still scarce literature on South- South FDI in least developed countries and contributes to the definition of clearer targets for foreign investment policies
    Keywords: Multinational Firms, South- South, Backward Linkages, Institutions
    JEL: F14 F23 O19
    Date: 2014–01
  26. By: G. Cornelis van Kooten
    Abstract: This paper deals with forest trade modelling from a theoretical, analytic and empirical perspective. An integrated dynamic log-lumber trade model is developed and then used to examine two trade issues, namely, a reduction of Russian taxes on log exports and removal of the taxes on Canadian lumber destined for the United States. To demonstrate the dynamic aspect of the model, both sets of taxes are lowered over a period of time. The trade model consists of five Canadian regions, three U.S. regions, New Zealand, Australia, Chile, Rest of Latin America, Russia, Sweden, Finland, Rest of Europe, Japan, China, Rest of Asia, and Rest of the World – a total of 20 regions. It concerns only coniferous logs and softwood lumber, ignoring hardwoods. The model is also calibrated on 2010 observed bi-lateral flows of logs and lumber using positive mathematical programming. The forest trade model is written using an Excel-GAMS interface, with input data retrieved by GAMS from Excel and GAMS output written to Excel, where final calculations are made.
    Keywords: log-lumber trade, spatial price equilibrium model, mathematical programming
    JEL: Q23 Q27 Q28 F17 Q21
    Date: 2013–05
  27. By: Szirmai, Adam (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG)
    Abstract: This paper provides a review and synthesis of the findings of the second phase of a research project on institutions and long-run economic performance. It discusses research findings in five areas, namely (1) the relationship between institutional characteristics and the duration of economic slumps; (2) the relative importance for growth of institutions, trade openness and geography; (3) the determinants and consequences of state capacities; (4) the interactions between institutions, foreign direct investment and domestic investment; and (5) the relative contributions of growth and inequality to poverty reduction. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research in the field of institutions and economic development.
    Keywords: Institutions, Economic Growth, State Capacity, Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, Poverty
    JEL: E02 O43 B52 O10
    Date: 2013–12–31
  28. By: Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey); Chun-Yan Kuo (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada); Sener Salci (Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, UK)
    Abstract: In this paper we develop an analytical general equilibrium framework to measure the foreign exchange premium and the premium for non-tradable outlays for a country. The framework allows us to capture in a consistent manner the impacts of the sourcing of funds and their expenditure on tradable and non-tradable goods and services of investment projects. An application of the model is carried out for 20 countries in Africa. The results show that the foreign exchange premiums range from 4.00% to 9.50% and the premium for non-tradable outlays from -1.75% to 1.50%. The empirical values depend on a number of factors, including the indirect taxes, production subsidies and international trade distortions of a country. These premiums should be incorporated into the economic evaluation of investment projects.
    Keywords: Distortions, taxes, subsidies, foreign exchange premium, premium for non-tradable outlays, tradable goods, Africa
    JEL: D58 H23 H43 O55 P45 R13
    Date: 2013–12
  29. By: Toke Aidt; Uk Hwang
    Abstract: This paper studies the costs and benefits of foreign lobbying. We show how and when foreign lobbying can help internalize cross national externalities. We argue that this is an often overlooked benefit of foreign lobbying. We also study under what conditions a constitutional rule banning foreign lobbying is in the national interest of a country. A key factor in this calculus is whether the interests of foreign lobby groups and domestic unorganized groups coincide or not. We illustrate the logic with examples from trade policy and environmental regulation.
    JEL: D62 D72
    Date: 2014–08–01
  30. By: Dikaios Tserkezos (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)
    Abstract: Several tests for nonlinear causality are available on the literature. In this paper we investigate the effects of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling using some well known linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. The conducted Monte Carlo simulation experiments and the empirical applications using data from the Athens Stocks Exchange Market, show that the use of temporally aggregated and systematic sampled data can affect seriously our conclusions about the linear or nonlinear causality effects between Trade Volume and Returns
    Keywords: Granger Non Linear Tests, Temporal Aggregation ,Systematic Sampling, Trade Volume and Returns
    JEL: C32 C43 C51
    Date: 2013–12–02
  31. By: Mandelman, Federico S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
    Abstract: During the last thirty years, labor markets in advanced economies were characterized by their remarkable polarization. As job opportunities in middle-skill occupations disappeared, employment opportunities concentrated in the highest- and lowest-wage occupations. I develop a two-country stochastic growth model that incorporates trade in tasks, rather than in goods, and reveal that this setup can replicate the observed polarization in the United States. This polarization was not a steady process: the relative employment share of each skill group fluctuated significantly over short-to-medium horizons. I show that the domestic and international aggregate shocks estimated within this framework can rationalize such employment dynamics while providing a good fit to the macroeconomic data. The model is estimated with employment data for different skills groups and trade-weighted macroeconomic indicators.
    Keywords: labor market polarization; international business cycles; heterogeneous agents; stochastic growth; two-country models
    JEL: F16 F41
    Date: 2013–12–01
  32. By: Daniel Schwanen
    Abstract: While manufacturing has been struggling to recoup job losses, Canada’s tradable services sectors have been expanding, providing an increased number of well-paying jobs in Canada in the midst of tough economic times, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Tradable Services: Canada’s Overlooked Success Story,” author Daniel Schwanen finds the relative strength of the Canadian economy has shifted towards the services side, and policy should now seek to exploit that strength.
    Keywords: International Policy; Canada's trade policy and Canada's labour market.
    JEL: F13 F14
  33. By: Friedrich Schneider; Alexandra Rudolph (Ruprecht-Karl-University Heidelberg)
    Abstract: Worldwide human trafficking (HT) is the third most often registered international criminal activity, ranked only after drug and weapon trafficking. The aim of the paper is to measure the extent of HT inflows to destination countries. It proposes the application of the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) structural equation model in order to include potential causes and indicators in one model and generate an index of the intensity of HT in destination countries. Thus, we account for the unobservable nature of the crime as well as for visible aspects that both shape the extent of it. By including both dimensions of the trafficking process the model is applied over a period of ten years. The resulting measure orders 142 countries between 2000 and 2010 according to their potential of being a destination country based on characteristics of the trafficking process. The results are that OECD countries are the most likely destination countries while developing countries are less likely.
    Keywords: Human trafficking, MIMIC models, latent variable, structural equation models
    JEL: C39 F22 K42 K49
    Date: 2013–12
  34. By: Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.; Tang, J-T.
    Abstract: With the advent of globalization, economic and financial interactions among countries have become widespread. Given technological advancements, the factors of production can no longer be considered to be just labor and capital. In the pursuit of economic growth, every country has sensibly invested in international cooperation, learning, innovation, technology diffusion and knowledge. In this paper, we use a panel data set of 40 countries from 1981 to 2008 and a negative binomial model, using a novel set of cross-border patents and joint patents as proxy variables for technology diffusion, in order to investigate such diffusion. The empirical results suggest that, if it is desired to shift from foreign to domestic technology, it is necessary to increase expenditure on R&D for business enterprises and higher education, exports and technology. If the focus is on increasing bilateral technology diffusion, it is necessary to increase expenditure on R&D for higher education and technology.
    Keywords: R&D, cross-border patent, exports, imports, international technology diffusion, joint patent, negative binomial panel data
    JEL: F14 F21 O30 O57
    Date: 2013–07–01
  35. By: Vassilis Monastiriotis
    Abstract: The process of approximation between the EU and its ‘eastern neighbourhood’ has created conditions for deepening economic interactions and market integration, giving to the EU –and to EU businesses– an elevated role in the process of economic modernisation and transition in the neighbourhood countries. This raises the question as to whether European business activity in these countries produces indeed measureable economic advantages both in absolute and in relative terms (e.g., compared to business activity from other parts of the world). Similarly, a question arises as to whether European business activity reduces or amplifies spatial imbalances within the partner countries. This paper examines these issues for the case of capital flows (foreign ownership) and the related productivity spillovers, using firm-level data from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) covering 28 transition countries over the period 2002-2009. We estimate the direct and intra-industry productivity effects of foreign ownership and examine how these differ across regional blocks (CEE, SEE and ENP), according to the origin of the foreign investor (EU versus non-EU), across geographical scales (pure industry versus regional spillovers) and for different types of locations (capital-city regions versus the rest). Our results suggest that FDI of EU origin plays a distinctive role in the countries concerned helping raise domestic productivity significantly more than investments from outside the EU. However, this process appears to operate in a spatially selective manner, thus enhancing regional disparities and spatial imbalances. This, then, assigns a particular responsibility for EU policy, as it continues to promote economic integration (and FDI flows) to its eastern neighbourhood, to devise interventions that will help redress these problems.
    JEL: Z00
    Date: 2014–01
  36. By: Peter Neary; Monika Mrazova
    Abstract: We introduce two new tools for relating preferences and demand to firm behavior and economic performance.� The "Demand Manifold" links the elasticity and convexity of an arbitrary demand function; the "Utility Manifold" links the elasticity and concavity of an arbitrary utility function.� Along the way we present some new families of demand functions; show how the structure of demand and preferences determine the responses of monopoly firms and monopolistically competitive industries to exogenous shocks; characterize the efficiency of a�monopolistically competitive equilibrium; and present a quantitative framework for predicting the welfare effects of exogenous shocks.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous Firms, Quantifying Gains from Trade, Super- and Sub-Convexity, Supermodularity
    JEL: F23 F15 F12
    Date: 2013–12–31
  37. By: Javier Cuenca-Esteban (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)
    Abstract: In the "neutrality years" 1793-1807 and beyond, U.S. merchants drew on Spanish-American silver to finance their carrying trade and to settle deficits with Europe and the Far East. The size and direction of these payments must remain unknown, because no records of silver flows were kept until 1821. This paper infers the financial claims and liabilities involved from estimated balances of trade and services at foreign ports by geographic areas. It suggests that the seemingly central role of Spanish silver pesos in financing U.S. deficits with China is only partially explained by legal exchange between the United States and Spain, Spanish America, or Europe. The weight of evidence and argument thus points to any additional silver coin that U.S. merchants may have secured through unofficial exports directly to Spanish America.
    JEL: N71 N73 N75 N76 N77 N41 N43 N45 N46 N47
    Date: 2013–12
  38. By: Christoph Böhringer (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre & ZenTra); Jared C. Carbone (University of Calgary and Resources for the Future, Department of Economics); Thomas F. Rutherford (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
    Abstract: Embodied carbon tariffs tax the direct and indirect carbon emissions embodied in trade — an idea popularized by countries seeking to extend the reach of domestic carbon regulations. We investigate their effectiveness using simulations from an applied general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use. We find that the tariffs do reduce foreign emissions, but their ability to improve the global cost-effectiveness of climate policy is limited. Their main welfare effect is to shift the burden of developed-world climate policies to the developing world.
    Keywords: climate policy, border tax adjustments, carbon leakage
    JEL: D58 H2 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2013–08
  39. By: Saul Estrin; Milica Uvalic
    Abstract: The paper explores the determination of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Balkan transition economies – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. Detailed FDI inflows to Southeast Europe (SEE) are analysed to determine the main differences in the volume, timing and sectoral structure of FDI within the region and in comparison to the Central East European countries. A gravity model to all transition economies during 1990-2011 is then estimated to assess whether the factors driving FDI to the Western Balkans are different. They are found to be so; even when size of their economy, distance, institutional quality and prospects of EU membership are taken into account, Western Balkans countries receive less FDI. These issues are of high policy relevance for the Balkan economies and ought to contribute to the current debate on the ‘new growth model’.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, Balkans, transition
    JEL: P3 O4 F2
    Date: 2013–07
  40. By: Taha, N.; Messkoub, M.; Siegmann, K.A.
    Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on the portability of social security entitlements for migrant workers, who moved along North-North, South- North, and South-South migration flows. Portability of social security entitlements is the ability of migrant workers to preserve, maintain, and transfer benefits of social security programmes spatially and socially, among their families. The paper uses a gender perspective where possible as part of an intersectional approach. We find that North-North migrants have the best access to social protection and portability, due to generally higher income of migrants, the inter-governmental agreements and developed administrative capacities in the North. There is limited coordination between South/origin and North/destination countries on the portability of social entitlements (such as pensions) of South-North migrants. In general, these migrants are dealing with immigration discourses and discriminatory policies that treat them as second class citizens, even as they are providing much-needed labour to their host countries and contribute to their economy. This hinders bilateral agreements on social security portability. South-South migrants are seeing new regional mechanisms addressing portability. However, beyond legal agreements, many of the impacts of these mechanisms are not yet known. Knowledge gaps in the landscape of research on the portability of social security entitlements for migrant workers that future research should address relate to internal migration and South-South migration, the role of gender and other social identities, migrants' occupations as well as the legality of workers' immigration status.
    Keywords: Portability, migrant workers, migration, social security, social protection, research gaps, gender
    Date: 2013–11–30
  41. By: Duha T. Altindag
    Abstract: Using a panel data set of European countries, this paper investigates the impact of crime on international tourism. Violent crimes are negatively associated with incoming international tourists and international tourism revenue indicating that international tourists consider the risk of victimization when choosing a location to visit. This impact is smaller in magnitude in Southern European countries with a coastline which are generally more attractive tourist destinations in terms of sea tourism, suggesting that victimization risk and attractiveness of the destination may be substitutable traits.
    Date: 2014–01
  42. By: Matthias Weitzel; Wan-Hsin Liu; Andrea Vaona
    Abstract: Technology transfer (TT) is not mandatory for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, yet proponents of CDM argue that TT in CDM can bring new technologies to developing countries and thus not only reduce emissions but also foster development. We review the quantitative literature on determinants of TT in CDM and estimate determinants for CDM projects in China. China is by far the largest host country of CDM projects and it is therefore crucial to understand the factors that drive TT there. We focus on heterogeneity within a single country and results can thus be linked to specific policies of the country for better interpretation. Our probit estimations confirm results of international cross-country studies, indicating that larger projects and more advanced technologies are more likely to involve TT. In addition, we find evidence that agglomeration effects are more pronounced on the province level rather than larger regions. We also find a positive effect of FDI on TT and a complementary role of academic R&D engagement to TT
    Keywords: Clean Development Mechanism, Technology Transfer, R&D, Agglomeration, China
    JEL: O33 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2013–12
  43. By: Richard Fabling (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Arthur Grimes (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and University of Auckland)
    Abstract: What determines exporters’ exchange rate hedging decisions and do exporters attempt to “time the market”? We use a unique unit record longitudinal administrative dataset on firm exports to find the determinants of exporters’ currency hedging choices. Determinants include financial fragility, prior hedging experience, and natural hedge opportunities. In addition, firms alter their hedging ratios when the currency has recently trended in one direction. We test whether such behaviour reflects firm characteristics (such as pricing power). We find that these responses are ubiquitous for all but large firms and for all times other than when the exchange rate is near its extreme high or low historical values. These results are consistent with most firms practicing selective hedging (market timing) behaviour that reflects a belief in exchange rate momentum effects. However, this behaviour appears sub-optimal since momentum effects are statistically absent from the underlying exchange rate data.
    Keywords: Currency hedging; optimal hedging; selective hedging; momentum trading
    JEL: D21 F31 G15
    Date: 2014–01
  44. By: McGregor, Elaine (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG); Siegel, Melissa (UNU-MERIT / MGSoG)
    Abstract: The use of internet technologies in daily life has risen dramatically in recent years, increasing researchers' interest in how social media such as Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn are changing social realities and potentially facilitating innovative research methodologies. As technology and migration are considered prominent drivers of the globalization processes, the increasing interest of migration researchers is unsurprising. Nevertheless, given the relative youth of research in this field, approaches to the topic differ. By taking a step back and viewing the literature from a wide range of disciplines, this paper provides a broad overview of the current state of research on migration and social media in four key areas: 1) the use of social media to trigger and facilitate migration in both positive (networks) and negative ways (human trafficking); 2) the role of social media and migrant integration; 3) the use of social media in diaspora engagement; and 4) the use of social media in conducting migration research. This paper adds to the literature by being the first systematic review of the topic.
    Keywords: Social Media, Migration Research, Social Networking Sites, Diaspora Engagement, Integration, Facilitation of Migration
    JEL: F22 O15 O33 L86 L82 Q55
    Date: 2013–12–31
  45. By: Joakim Ruist (Centre for European Research and University of Gothenburg)
    Abstract: When Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 Sweden was one of two EU15 countries that did not restrict access to its labor market and welfare systems for Romanian and Bulgarian citizens. This article evaluates the net fiscal contribution in 2011 of Romanian and Bulgarian migrants who arrived in Sweden under this migration regime in 2007-2010. The average net contribution is found to be substantially positive: around 30,000 kronor, or one-sixth of public sector turnover per capita. This result is used to discuss expected corresponding net contributions in other EU15 countries, several of which lifted their restrictions on January 1st, 2014. The United Kingdom and Ireland stand out as two countries that unambiguously have reason to expect even more positive contributions.
    Keywords: immigration, welfare benefits, public finances, Romania, Bulgaria, EU
    JEL: H20 H50 J61
  46. By: Christoph Böhringer (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre & ZenTra); Jared C. Carbone (University of Calgary and Resources for the Future, Department of Economics); Thomas F. Rutherford (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
    Abstract: Unilateral carbon policies are inefficient due to the fact that they generally involve emission reductions in countries with high marginal abatement costs and because they are subject to carbon leakage. In this paper, we ask whether the use of carbon tariffs—tariffs on the carbon embodied in imported goods—might lower the cost of achieving a given reduction in world emissions. Specifically, we explore the role tariffs might play as an inducement to unregulated countries adopting emission controls of their own. We use an applied general equilibrium model to generate the payoffs of a policy game. In the game, a coalition of countries regulates its own emissions and chooses whether or not to employ carbon tariffs against unregulated countries. Unregulated countries may respond by adopting emission regulations of their own, retaliating against the carbon tariffs by engaging in a trade war, or by pursuing no policy at all. In the unique Nash equilibrium produced by this game, the use of carbon tariffs by coalition countries is credible. China and Russia respond by adopting binding abatement targets to avoid being subjected to them. Other unregulated countries retaliate. Cooperation by China and Russia lowers the global welfare cost of achieving a 10% reduction in global emissions by half relative to the case where coalition countries undertake all of this abatement on their own.
    Keywords: climate policy, border tax adjustments, carbon leakage, strategic retaliation, applied general equilibrium model
    JEL: D58 H2 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2013–10
  47. By: S. Capacci; A. E. Scorcu; L. Vici
    Abstract: The rise in destination accessibility and the emergence of new market segments have increased the competition among tourism destinations, both at national and international level. In order to gain a significant competitive advantage over competitors, destinations increasingly make use of signals that certify and communicate the level of quality provided. While existing research on tourism certifications mostly pertains to quality evaluation, this study exploits quantitative methods to assess the economic impact of destinations’ labels. The analysis considers one of the most popular certification of environmental quality attributed to beaches, the Blue Flag award. It explores the relationship between the certification achievement and inbound tourist flows, focusing on the Italian case study. In fact, given their aim of providing synthetized information on destinations, certification programs particularly affect foreign tourists who suffer more from asymmetric information. Panel data techniques and highly disaggregated data are employed to compare the attractiveness of certified and non-certified provinces, by controlling for several factors potentially confounding the effect of the certification.
    JEL: C23 L83 Z12
    Date: 2014–01
  48. By: Benjamin Elsner (Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Gaia Narciso (Trinity College Dublin); Jacco J. J. � Thijssen (University of York)
    Abstract: Diaspora networks provide information to future migrants and influence both their decision to migrate and their success in the host country. While the existing literature explains the effect of networks on migration decisions through the size of the migrant community, we show that the quality of the network is an equally important determinant. We argue that networks that are more integrated in the society of the host country can give more accurate information about job prospects to future migrants. In a decision model with imperfect signalling we show that migrants with access to a better network are more likely to make the right decision - they migrate only if they gain - and they migrate earlier. We test these predictions empirically using data on recent Mexican migrants to the US, and exploit the geographic diffusion of Mexicans since the 1980s as well as the settlement of immigrants that came during the Bracero program in the 1950s to instrument for the quality of networks. The results provide strong evidence that connections to a better-integrated network lead to better outcomes after migration. Yet we find no evidence that the quality of the network affects the timing of migration.
    JEL: F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2014–01
  49. By: Hans-Michael Trautwein (University of Oldenburg - International Economics & ZenTra); Finn Marten Körner (University of Oldenburg - International Economics & ZenTra)
    Abstract: Germany’s net exports and macroeconomic policy stance are controversial issues in current debates about the Eurozone debt crisis. This paper shows that both are characteristics of what has been described in a variety of political economy literatures as the German socio-economic model. We argue that the model has evolved in three stages, from the economic miracle of the post-war era through the era of “Germany Inc.” and Bundesbank hegemony to the present transnationalization of German industries and finance. The three stages of the German model – or Models D, mark I - III – correspond closely to the exchange rate regimes of Bretton Woods, the European Monetary System and European Monetary Union (EMU). We describe them in three analogous settings that specify their different working conditions under the respective exchange-rate regime, following a chronology of success, dynamic instability and transformation. We point out that, while the German economy has under-gone substantial changes, there are two different mindsets of model thinking in Germany that have been remarkably persistent in public debate. We refer to these two mindsets as ordoliberalism and neo-mercantilism. Ordoliberalism is the normative mindset of policy speakers and academic econo-mists, whereas neo-mercantilism is the practical mindset of policymakers and business leaders. We discuss the differences and complementary uses of these modes of German model thinking and draw attention to their flaws and inadequacies at the present stage of European integration and transnationalization of the German economy.
    Keywords: macroeconomic policy regimes, export-led growth, global imbalances, ordoliberalism, neo-mercantilism
    JEL: E61 F43 N14 O43
    Date: 2014–01
  50. By: Gregory Upton Jr.
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of a statewide merit-based scholarship program on educational outcomes in Arizona. It tests whether Arizona’s Instrument to Measure Standards (AIMS) scholarship has an effect on a comprehensive set of educational outcomes such as the number of applicants, student admissions, first-year first-time enrollment, ACT scores of entering freshman, retention rates, as well as on the level of tuition and fees at the three schools targeted by the program; Arizona State University, University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University. Both difference-in-differences estimation as well as synthetic control methods shows that AIMS has an economically and statistically significant effect on many of these outcomes, primarily enrollment and tuition. Enrollment effects are greatest among African American and Hispanic students and are significant for both men and women.
  51. By: Donzelli, S.
    Abstract: In the last two decades, a novel interdisciplinary field of inquiry has emerged under the label of Border Studies. This area of research has mainly reflected on the nature and functionalities of borders and boundaries, bringing up discussions on space, politics, economics, and culture. In particular, Border Studies have significantly contributed to the understanding of the role of borders in shaping migratory movements. In order to map this very large field of investigation, numerous state of the art reviews have been published. However, none of the reviews encountered has addressed the following issues: first, the main assumptions informing different theoretical perspectives in Border Studies; second, the application of Border Studies to analyse human mobility in the Global South. Thus, in order to participate in producing a more complete understanding of the knowledge produced in this field, the present paper pursues a pair of objectives. One objective is to critically present the main theoretical approaches employed in the field of Border Studies, reflecting on their heuristic possibilities and limitations as well as their political implications. The other objective is to explore the intertwining of Border and Migration Studies with a specific focus on Africa, Asia and Latin America, devoting particular attention to the way this body of research has analysed the condition of migrant women workers. Overall, the essay generates suggestions for future significant investigations.
    Keywords: Borders, boundaries, migration, Global South, migrant women workers
    Date: 2013–11–30
  52. By: Jonathan David Ostry; Atish R. Ghosh
    Abstract: In bilateral and multilateral surveillance, countries are often urged to consider alternative policies that would result in superior outcomes for the country itself and, perhaps serendipitously, for the world economy. While it is possible that policy makers in the country do not fully recognize the benefits of proposed alternative policies, it is also possible that the existing policies are the best that they can deliver, given their various constraints, including political. In order for the policy makers to be able and willing to implement the better policies some quid pro quo may be required—such as a favorable policy adjustment in the recipients of the spillovers; identifying such mutually beneficial trades is the essence of international policy coordination. We see four general guideposts in terms of the search for globally desirable solutions. First, all parties need to identify the nature of spillovers from their policies and be open to making adjustments to enhance net positive spillovers in exchange for commensurate benefits from others; but second, with countries transparent about the spillovers as they see them, an honest broker is likely to be needed to scrutinize the different positions, given the inherent biases at the country level. Third, given the need for policy agendas to be multilaterally consistent, special scrutiny is needed when policies exacerbate global imbalances and currency misalignments; and fourth, by the same token, special scrutiny is also needed when one country’s policies has a perceptible adverse impact on financial-stability risks elsewhere.
    Keywords: Economic policy;International cooperation;Welfare;
    Date: 2013–12–12
  53. By: Gómez, O.
    Abstract: The present literature review aims to provide a panoramic view of the different ways in which the link between climate change and migration has been addressed in the existing literature, building on the recent non-annotated bibliography issued by the International Organization for Migration in December 2012. After a brief introduction of the background and the plurality of methodologies behind academic studies about the connection of the two phenomena, the review identifies four main themes and debates ongoing in the literature, namely: (1) scale and location of the climate induced migration, (2) mechanisms behind its occurrence, (3) emerging recognition of migration as adaptation, not only as an impact, and (4) measures for its management. Gaps in need of further work are divided into areas for analysis and areas for advocacy. Included among the former are more in situ knowledge production, focus on cities and additional research following a differentiated approach— e.g., gendered. Advocacy approaches need to motivate further research, maintaining advances against the stigmatization of migrants. The review is informed by human security ideas, which are presented as buttressing analyses at levels different from the national, facilitating joined-up thinking and providing a flexible framework to accommodate multiple layers of climate- migration interaction.
    Keywords: Global environmental change, human mobility, adaptation, environmental refugees, displacement, human security, human security methodology
    Date: 2013–11–30
  54. By: Faruk Balli; Syed Abul Basher; Faisal Rana
    Abstract: Using both panel and cross-sectional models for 28 industrialized countries observed from 2001 to 2009, we report a number of findings regarding the determinants of the volatility of returns on cross-border asset holdings (i.e., equity and debt). Greater portfolio concentration and an increase in assets held in emerging markets lead to an elevation in earning volatility, whereas more financial integration and a greater share held in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and by the household sector cause a reduction in the return volatility. Larger asset holdings by offshore financial corporations and non-bank financial institutions cause higher market volatility, although they affect volatility in the equity and bond markets in the opposite way. Overall, both panel and cross-sectional estimations provide very similar results (albeit of different magnitude) and are robust to the endogeneity problem.
    Keywords: Asset return volatility, financial integration, international portfolio choice, asset holdings, endogeneity bias
    JEL: E44 F36 G15
    Date: 2014–01
  55. By: KONISHI Yoko; Se-il MUN; NISHIYAMA Yoshihiko; Ji Eun SUNG
    Abstract: This paper presents an alternative approach to measuring the values of transport time for freight transportation, and examines its applicability through empirical analysis. We develop a model of the freight transportation market, in which carriers incur the cost associated with the effort to reduce transport time, and transport time is endogenously determined in the market. We estimate the freight charge function, expressway choice model, and transport time function, using microdata of freight flow in Japan collected by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Based on the estimated freight charge function, we obtain the values of transport time for shippers as an implicit price in the hedonic theory. The estimated values of transport time for shippers are larger than those obtained by the widely adopted method based on the discrete choice model. We also develop a method to evaluate the benefit of time-saving technological change (including infrastructure improvement) based on the hedonic approach. Application to the evaluation of expressway construction suggests that the benefits calculated by our method tend to be larger than those based on the other methods.
    Date: 2014–01

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