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on International Trade |
| By: | Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Yang, Chih-Hai |
| Abstract: | The literature has revealed the positive impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on export prices by employing product-level trade data. This paper empirically examines the impacts of FTAs on import prices at the firm level. We focus on firm-level imports in China from ASEAN countries by employing China’s firm-product-level trade data. As a result, controlling for firm characteristics and product characteristics, we could not find significantly positive impacts of an FTA’s entry into force on import prices of FTA eligible products. Instead, we found a significant increase in import quantities of FTA eligible products. Thus, at the firm level, the gains from FTAs for exporters may be the increase in export quantities rather than the rise in export prices. |
| Keywords: | China, Southeast Asia, International trade, Free Trade Agreement (FTA), Imports, Prices, FTA utilization |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper436&r=int |
| By: | Nakhoda, Aadil |
| Abstract: | The BRIC countries (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China) plus Turkey contribute a significant proportion of the exports that originate from developing countries. The varieties imported from the BRIC countries plus Turkey in the textile, creative and leather industries are likely to take precedence over the imported varieties from smaller developing countries as either their production is relatively more efficient in labor-intensive industries or their resources are relatively more abundant. Therefore, the prominence of the exports of the BRIC countries plus Turkey can have implications for smaller developing countries that also specialize in the production of labor-intensive products, such as Pakistan. I study the impact of the exports of the BRIC countries plus Turkey on the exports of Pakistan to the set of importing countries based on their importance as major export destinations of Pakistan for each industry considered and the set of importing countries based on the geographical location of the importing countries as regional and non-regional destinations of the BRIC countries plus Turkey. In this paper, I aim to determine whether the exports from the BRIC countries plus Turkey either complement or substitute exports from Pakistan to the specific set of export destinations. |
| Keywords: | International trade; crowding-out of exports; complementary exports; technology upgrading; exporter and importer linkages; |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F15 F23 M21 |
| Date: | 2013–12–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52477&r=int |
| By: | Sébastien Miroudot; Dorothée Rouzet; Francesca Spinelli |
| Abstract: | Taking global value chains (GVCs) into account has important implications for trade policy. When production is vertically fragmented and trade in intermediate inputs is prevalent, one has to look differently at a certain number of issues. Through case studies, this paper provides new evidence on the incidence on services of tariffs levied on goods (case study 1) and then discusses effective rates of protection in a world of GVCs and what the removal of tariffs on intermediate inputs implies, using the example of Canada (case study 2). To illustrate how trade agreements could be made more relevant for GVCs, the paper further looks at sectoral approaches in trade negotiations through the example of the Information Technology Agreement (case study 3) and finally compares the network of regional trade agreements in force with global production networks (case study 4). |
| Keywords: | regional trade agreements, global value chains, vertical specialization, fragmentation of production, cumulative tariffs, trade in intermediate inputs, effective rates of protection, network trade |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F20 F23 |
| Date: | 2013–12–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:161-en&r=int |
| By: | Bergstrand, Jeffrey (Department of Finance Mendoza College of Business University of Notre Dame); Larch, Mario (Rechts- und Wirtschatswissenschaftliche Facultät Universität Bayreuth); Yotov, Yoto (School of Economics LeBow College of Business Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel common econometric specification, we examine the measurement of three important effects in international trade that historically have been addressed largely separately: the (partial) effects on trade of economic integration agreements, national borders, and bilateral distance. First, recent studies focusing on precise and unbiased estimates of effects of economic integration agreements (EIAs) on members' trade may be biased upward owing to inadequate control for exogenous unobservable country-pair-specific technological innovations (decreasing the costs of international relative to intranational trade); we find evidence of this bias using a properly specified gravity equation. Second, our novel methodology yields economically plausible and statistically significant estimates of the declining effect of "national borders" on world trade, now accounting for endogenous EIA formations and unobserved country-pair heterogeneity in initial levels. Third, we confirm recent evidence providing a solution to the "distance-elasticity puzzle," but show that these estimates of the declining effect of distance on international trade are biased upward by not accounting for endogenous EIA formations and unobserved country-pair heterogeneity. We show that these results are robust to a battery of sensitivity analyses allowing for phase-ins of agreements, lagged terms-of-trade effects, reverse causality, various estimation techniques, disaggregation, inclusion of intranational trade, and accounting for firm-heterogeneity and country-selection bias. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Economic Integration Agreements; Gravity Equations |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2013–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2013_007&r=int |
| By: | Trevor Tombe (University of Calgary); Jennifer Winter |
| Abstract: | Within countries, internal trade is costly and the gains from trade depend on migration and taxes. We measure internal trade costs in Canada, China, and the United States; they are large, especially in poor regions. To investigate their consequences, we develop a model of trade, within-country factor mobility, and taxes and transfers that endogenously generates unbalanced trade and matches trade and income data. Simulations reveal substantial gains from lowering internal trade costs. We cleanly decompose the gains from trade and find tax effects are quantitatively important, amplifying gains in poor regions and diminishing them in rich. |
| Date: | 2013–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clg:wpaper:2013-28&r=int |
| By: | Gaulier, Guillaume; Santoni, Gianluca; Taglioni, Daria; Zignago, Soledad |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, international trade has become a privileged engine of growth for much of the developing world. With the global economy evolving continuously and rapidly, countries must pay close attention to their positioning on the map of global trade and production. Within this framework, countries must also become aware of how they fare relative to competitors and to their past export performance. Of particular importance is the extent to which their performance is driven by exporter own supply-side capacity as opposed to external or compositional factors, including product and geographical specialization and how these trends compare across countries. This paper describes a new initiative that uses quarterly data for 2005q1-2013q1 to compute comparable indicators of export performance for 228 countries and territories. The database, the Export Competitiveness Database, reveals interesting patterns in trade performance. Export performance, stripped of compositional effects, was strongest for countries from the Asia and Pacific region, on average. Moreover, such performance was almost entirely driven by exporting country specific factors, with changes reflecting growth in volume rather than price developments. All emerging and developing regions have, on average, improved export performance. The indicators in the database trace the legacy of supply-side capacity and the overall export performance of the double-dip recession in the euro area. An illustrative set of results suggests that the paper's measure of competitiveness correlates to a country's nominal and real effective exchange rate, factors that are commonly perceived as important determinants of competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Currencies and Exchange Rates,Markets and Market Access,E-Business,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2013–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6733&r=int |
| By: | Hasanat Shah, Syed; Li, Jun Jiang |
| Abstract: | Our paper analyzed the impact and causal relation of outbound Chinese FDI on growth, employment and export performance of 16 selected US states. The study employed Panel data where contemporaneous panel fixed estimation results shows that the impact of Chinese outbound FDI on employment and export are insignificant. However, the impact of FDI on growth is positive and significant in interaction with States export to China. Applying heterogeneous panel causality approach on a refined dynamic panel model indicates that Chinese FDI does not cause GDP, exports and employment while the results of reverse causality shows that US States GDP (market size) cause the inflow of Chinese outbound FDI. Though the impact of meager Chinese out bound FDI in the US is insignificant to marginally positive but in no way the impact is adverse. Keeping in view the experience of Japanese outbound FDI to the US in 1980's, we come up with some policy recommendation for Chinese investors. |
| Keywords: | Chinese out-bound FDI, US States, Panel Unit root, fixed effect, growth, employment, exports |
| JEL: | F2 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52575&r=int |
| By: | Satoshi Inomata (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide a non-technical explanation of the concept of trade in value added, with particular reference to East Asia. The trade in value added approach allows us to redefine the relationship between countries of origin and destination in international trade, and thereby addresses an important issue of measuring international trade in the face of growing production sharing among different countries. In contrast to the orthodox concept of trade balances based on foreign trade statistics, it focuses on the value added contents of a traded product, and considers each country’s contribution to the value added generation in a production process. |
| Keywords: | trade in value added approach, East Asia, production sharing, trade statistics |
| JEL: | C67 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:23855&r=int |
| By: | Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut; Shiino, Kohei |
| Abstract: | The literature on the use of free trade agreements (FTAs) has recently been growing because it is becoming more important to encourage the use of current FTAs than to increase the number of FTAs. In this paper, we discuss some practical issues in the computation of FTA utilization rates, which provide a useful measure to discover how much FTA schemes are used in trade. For example, compared with the use of customs data on FTA utilization in imports, when using certificates of origin data on FTA utilization in exports, there are several points about which we should be careful. Our practical guidance on the computation of FTA utilization rates will be helpful when computing such rates and in examining the determinants of those rates empirically. |
| Keywords: | Thailand, Asia, International trade, Free Trade Agreement (FTA), Certificates of Origin, FTA Utilization |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper438&r=int |
| By: | Adnan Akram (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses country-specific and industry-specific determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) between Pakistan and other SAARC countries using panel data techniques. This paper also disentangles total IIT into horizontal and vertical IIT. Vertical IIT is further divided into high-quality and low quality IIT. This paper finds that country-specific variables are more important in explaining IIT relative to industry-specific variables. Decomposition of IIT shows that in the SAARC region Pakistan’s IIT is mostly comprised of the vertical IIT and to a lesser extent is horizontal IIT. The paper offers specific policy recommendations for the promotion of IIT in the SAARC region. |
| Keywords: | IIT, Horizontal IIT, Vertical IIT |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2013:93&r=int |
| By: | Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes new measures of the liberalization level of free trade agreements (FTAs). Our measures take three issues into account. First, in order to identify the differences in FTA liberalization level over time, we compute the annual liberalization level rather than the level during the whole period. Second, our measure includes information on tariff margins, i.e. the difference between FTA rates and most favoured nation rates. Third, the restrictiveness of rules of origin (RoOs) is also taken into account in order to penalize the liberalization level of products with more restrictive RoOs. In this paper, we compute such measures of FTA liberalization level for three FTAs in Thailand. |
| Keywords: | Thailand, International trade, Free Trade Agreement (FTA), Tariff, Trade policy, Rules of origin, FTA utilization |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper437&r=int |
| By: | Choongjae Cho (KEIP - Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This study tries to find the causal relationship between bilateral trade and FDI in India and East Asian countries using macroeconomic data and derive policy implications for regional integration. Since the late 2000s, Korea, Japan and Singapore’s trade and FDI with India have been rapidly increasing, but the causal relationship between trade and FDI could not be found, contrary to expectations. The relationship between trade and FDI in the US, the UK and Germany with India showed one-way or two-way causality, respectively. The estimation suggests that the causal relationship between trade and FDI in both countries could be formed by long-term economic exchange rather than a short-term surge in scale. |
| Keywords: | trade, FDI, Causality, India, East Asia |
| JEL: | C22 F19 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:23857&r=int |
| By: | Kondo, Illenin O. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | Using data on trade-induced displacements, this paper documents that locations facing more foreign competition in the U.S. have: higher job destruction rates, lower job creation rates, and thereby lower employment rates. In contrast to standard trade theory, a model with variable markups and heterogeneous segmented labor markets is consistent with these facts. Foreign competition has a correlated effect on job destruction and job creation precisely because the most vulnerable locations also have lower productivity. Following an unexpected trade liberalization with limited mobility, employment sharply falls in the worse hit locations while welfare and employment increase in the aggregate. |
| Keywords: | Foreign competition; nonemployment; job flows; spatial heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F16 |
| Date: | 2013–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1095&r=int |
| By: | Koen De Backer; Sébastien Miroudot |
| Abstract: | World trade and production are increasingly structured around “global value chains” (GVCs). The last few years have witnessed a growing number of case studies describing at the product level how production is internationally fragmented, but there is little evidence at the aggregate level on the prevalence of GVCs. The main objective of this paper is to provide for more and better evidence allowing the examination of countries’ position within international production networks. We propose a number of indicators that give a more accurate picture of the integration and position of countries in GVCs, as well as a more detailed assessment of the value chain in six broad industries: agriculture and food products, chemicals, electronics, motor vehicles, business services and financial services. |
| JEL: | F14 F23 L16 L23 |
| Date: | 2013–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:159-en&r=int |
| By: | Chakrabarty, Subhajit; Nag, Biswajit |
| Abstract: | Perceptions of international trade barriers are important in the decision of firms to export.This study makes an empirical analysis of the perceptions with respect a particular sector. Two industrial hubs (locations) were chosen. The perceptions of the firms were very different in the two locations (in the same geographical region of the country).In one of these, lack of knowledge (in particular, lack of staff for export planning) was found to be the most important barrier as perceived by the firms, while competition was found as the most important barrier in the other. We also found further clusters within each of the two industrial ‘clusters’. It is not just the firms which can be associated with some stages of internationalization but the clusters can also be in different evolutionary stages of internationalization, in view of the differences.Policy makers may note these and focus their export promotion and information dissemination plans based on cluster membership so as to improve perceptions. |
| Keywords: | International marketing, trade, barrier, perception, apparel |
| JEL: | F10 F12 F14 |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52635&r=int |
| By: | Joachim Pohl |
| Abstract: | International investment agreements (IIAs) almost universally define their temporal validity and thus set conditions for States’ exit from these treaties. This study presents the results of the survey of language that determines the temporal validity of 2,061 bilateral investment agreements that the 55 economies participating in the OECD-hosted Freedom of Investment Roundtables have concluded with any other economy. The paper summarises in its first part past and current treaty practice in this regard: how do States design the parameters that define the temporal validity of their treaties and the duration of the obligations contained therein? How has this design evolved over time? Do different kinds of IIAs take different approaches to this matter? Have individual States developed distinct practices or policies? The second part of the paper presents key findings that result from the analysis of treaty practice in a large number of agreements. It highlights characteristics of the provisions on temporal validity employed in IIAs; emphasises the collective engagement that results from the clauses in IIAs and the consequences of country-specific practice; and suggests questions on intriguing policy choices that a large comparative study reveals. |
| Keywords: | bilateral investment treaty, international investment law, comparative law, international investment agreements, international investment, foreign investment, investment treaties, investment law |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F53 F55 K33 K41 N40 P45 |
| Date: | 2013–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaaa:2013/4-en&r=int |
| By: | Koen Dillen (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Emanuele Ferrari (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Pascal Tillie (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); George Philippidis (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sophie Helaine (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constraints for this study, the choice was made to perform the analysis through the use of a computable general equilibrium model and focus on the dairy and beef sector. The different model scenarios are constructed based on combinations of the discussed policy options such as a ban or traceability and labelling requirements with the productivity increase associated with cloning. The results show that only the situation where trade with countries using the technique of cloning is suspended has an effect on competitiveness. This suspension could be due to express prohibitions or a de facto decision by exporters when traceability and labelling costs increase. Under this scenario imports drop significantly which is followed by a slight increase in domestic production and prices, especially for beef and cattle. |
| Keywords: | Cloning, CGE, European policy, international trade, competitiveness |
| JEL: | F11 F13 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc79995&r=int |
| By: | Matteo Cacciatore (HEC Montreal) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of trade integration for the conduct of monetary policy in a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous producer entry, and labor market frictions. The model reproduces important empirical regularities related to international trade, namely synchronization of business cycles across trading partners and reallocation of market shares across producers. Three key results emerge. First, when trade linkages are weak, the optimal policy is inward-looking but requires significant departures from price stability both in the long run and over the business cycle. Second, as trade integration reallocates market share toward more productive firms, the need of positive inflation to correct long-run distortions is reduced. Third, increased business cycle synchronization implies that country-specific shocks have more global consequences. Welfare gains from cooperation are small relative to optimal non-cooperative policy, but sizable relative to historical Federal Reserve behavior. The constrained efficient allocation generated by optimal cooperative policy can still be achieved by appropriately designed inward-looking policy rules. However, sub-optimal (historical) policy implies inefficient fluctuations in cross-country demands that result in large welfare costs when trade linkages are strong. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed013:724&r=int |
| By: | HATTORI Tetsuya |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the influence of international investment agreements (IIAs) on the actions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the social welfare of host countries according to the market structure in the host country. In cases where MNEs are monopolies and duopolies, IIAs promote foreign direct investment (FDI) and improve the social welfare of the host country. When MNEs are in competition, the social welfare of the host country increases more significantly, but the optimal level of commitment to IIAs for the host country will be higher as the range in which MNEs have incentives in choosing FDI will be narrower. When MNEs compete with import-competing firms in the host country, the range of FDI incentives of the former will widen if the discount rate is below a certain threshold, but this worsens the social welfare of the host country. However, if import-competing firms exist in the host country, with the spillover effects of FDI, IIAs will encourage MNEs to engage in FDI and increase the social welfare of the host country. In such case, the optimal level of commitment to IIAs for the host country must be higher compared to the case in which there is competition between MNEs. It is important to negotiate IIAs based on the analysis of the market structure in the home country, because the influence of IIAs on the social welfare of the host country and the optimal level of commitment to IIAs for the home country change according to the market structure in the home country. |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:14001&r=int |
| By: | Saiz, Patricio (Departamento de Análisis Económico: Teoría Económica e Historia Económica. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Castro, Rafael (Departamento de Análisis Económico: Teoría Económica e Historia Económica. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we reflect on the links between the origin and rate of foreign direct investments (FDI) and the granting of intellectual property rights (IPRs) to foreigners in Spain during the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth century. Our main hypothesis is that the two issues were strongly related during the extension of industrialization in Europe, although distinct interests and goals could have led to different investment and IPR strategies. This was true during the whole period studied, and especially after 1880, when the first globalization emerged, progressively favoring corporative transnational investments and international agreements on IPRs. During both centuries, foreign investors from several North Atlantic countries flooded the Spanish economy, taking thousands of patents and trademarks. Based on outstanding data on FDI and foreign IPRs in Spain, the scope of this complex relation is explored. In doing so, our hypothesis is confirmed and distinct international strategies and performances in the Spanish economy disentangled. Thus, our study provides a better understanding: 1) of the spread of international capitalism and multinationals, 2) of the competition among pioneers and first followers in the international markets, and 3) of the role of IPRs in that process. Our findings also shed light on the current debates regarding the relation of international investments and the protection of intangible assets in today’s global markets. |
| Keywords: | foreign investments, patents, trademarks, Spain |
| JEL: | F21 N73 N74 O34 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uam:wpapeh:201302&r=int |
| By: | Leonard Leung (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada); Glenn Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Canada, Eastern Mediterranean University, Mersin 10, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Peru's Camisea gas fields hold nearly ninety percent of the country's natural gas reserves. In the 1990s, the government insisted on prioritizing Camisea gas for domestic consumption. The revocation of this policy in the 2000s allowed the private developers to export forty percent of Camisea's proven gas reserves, equivalent to Peru's one third of the total. This USD 3.9 billion LNG export project boasts the largest single foreign direct investment in Peru's history. A major component of the financing was granted by international financial institutions on economic grounds. While the project was expected to yield a substantial return to the private investors, it is clear that the exportation of one-third of Peru's total proven natural gas reserves is not aligned with its long term interests. In this paper, a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken under a series of scenarios starting with the situation during the projects formative stage in mid-2000s and again in 2012, two years after its commercial operation. In all cases, Peru does not have sufficient reserves to warrant export, and the economic costs far exceed the benefits. This project should not have been approved by the government, nor should have the loans been granted by the international financial institutions. |
| Keywords: | Peru, Camisea gas fields, LNG export, cost-benefit analysis, energy trade |
| JEL: | Q38 D61 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:227&r=int |
| By: | Houssa, Romain; Verpoorten, Marijke |
| Abstract: | The inability of Benin to comply with EU standards led to a ban on its shrimp exports. The ban had a negative impact on the exporting firms, the fishmongers and the artisanal fishermen, even several years after it was lifted. Exports did not revive because local and international institutions failed to resolve the sector’s increased perceived riskiness and its inadequate financial and technical resources. For the fishermen, the impact of the ban persisted because they were locked in the fishery sector, and the local shrimp demand could not fully compensate for the loss of the EU market. |
| Keywords: | EU food safety standards; Aid for Trade; export ban; shrimp; Benin |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2013011&r=int |
| By: | Deborah Kay Elms (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | Pressure has been building for the conclusion of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Getting the deal done is important, but the TPP is not just another free trade agreement (FTA). It represents the chance to set a trade agenda for the future across a wide range of topics for countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region. This means that the agreement should not be settled in haste. More importantly, it also means that key decisions need to be reached about broader issues related to the institutional structure of the TPP. These decisions must be made now, before the deal is closed, on issues such as how to create the TPP as a living agreement, the formation of a TPP Secretariat, and the clarification of entry conditions for future members such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These choices must be made deliberately and carefully even while officials are struggling with reaching closure on the most highly sensitive issues still remaining in the agreement. It will not be easy, but wise decisions are necessary now to ensure the long-term success of the TPP. |
| Keywords: | Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP, trade negotiation, the institutional structure of the TPP |
| JEL: | F13 F55 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:23856&r=int |
| By: | THORBECKE, Willem |
| Abstract: | China runs surpluses of $400 billion-$500 billion in processing trade. In value-added terms, East Asia as a whole runs surpluses in processing trade with the West. This generates appreciation pressures on exchange rates throughout the region. Using data up to 2012, this paper reports that a concerted appreciation would rebalance trade. An appreciation in China accompanied by depreciations in other surplus economies such as Taiwan and South Korea would not reduce China's surplus in processing trade but would increase its deficit in ordinary (labor-intensive) trade. To rebalance, East Asia as a whole needs to give market forces greater play in determining exchange rates, and international organizations need to conduct surveillance on regional production networks. |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:14002&r=int |
| By: | Andreas Hau fler (University of Munich and CESifo); Mohammed Mardan (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | Following recent court rulings, cross-border loss compensation for multinational firms has become a major policy issue in Europe. This paper analyzes the effects of introducing a coordinated cross-border tax relief in a setting where multinational firms choose the size of a risky investment and host countries noncooperatively choose tax rates. We show that coordinated cross-border loss compensation may intensify tax competition when, following current international practice, the parent firm's home country bases the tax rebate for a loss-making subsidiary on its own tax rate. In equilibrium, tax revenue losses may thus be even higher than is implied by the direct effect of the reform. In contrast, tax competition is mitigated when the home country bases its loss relief on the tax rate in the subsidiary's host country. |
| Keywords: | cross-border loss relief, tax competition, multinational rms |
| JEL: | H25 H32 F23 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1310&r=int |
| By: | Timothy J. Hatton (University of Essex and Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Historical experience suggests that when a period of rising immigration is followed by a sudden slump, this can trigger a policy backlash. This has not occurred in the current recession. This paper examines three links in the chain between the slump and immigration policy. First, although immigration flows have responded to the slump, and immigrants have borne more than their share of the burden, this has done little to protect the employment of non-Immigrants. Second, despite the recession for Europe as a whole, attitudes to immigration have not changed very much, and they have been influenced more by fiscal concerns than by rising unemployment. Third, while far right parties have used the recession to renew the political pressure for tougher immigration policies, governments have been constrained by the composition of immigration and by EU regulation. |
| Keywords: | European immigration, Recession, Immigration policy |
| JEL: | F22 F52 J15 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1401&r=int |
| By: | Simon J. Evenett (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an account of the resort in recent years by governments in the Asia and Pacific region to discrimination against foreign commercial interests. As in previous systemic economic crises, policymakers altered the mix of discriminatory policies employed. This time around governments of higher income economies in the region frequently softened the budget constraints of firms, offering a range of financial incentives that went beyond high-profile bank sector bailouts. Meanwhile, many developing countries in the Asia and Pacific region relied more on traditional forms of protectionism. The result is a more fragmented set of markets in the Asia and Pacific region than before the crisis. |
| Keywords: | the Asia and Pacific region, financial incentives, traditional forms of protectionism, Global Trade Alert Database, financial sector bailout |
| JEL: | F13 F53 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:financ:23851&r=int |
| By: | Hasanat Shah, Syed; Li, Jun Jiang; Hasanat, Hafsa |
| Abstract: | In this study we employed the ARDL bound test in order to detect cointegration relation of oil price and oil price fluctuation with GDP, exports and inflation in Pakistan. Our results confirmed cointegration among the variables when GDP was considered as dependent variable, while in case of inflation as responding variable, the long run relation among the variables are confirm only when oil price was replaced with oil price fluctuations as an explanatory variable. Applying VECM technique, we confirmed that causal link is running from oil price and oil price fluctuation to GDP and inflation. We could not detect causality running from oil prices and oil price fluctuation to exports or vice versa. Finally the augmented granger causality verified our findings of causal relation running from oil price and oil price fluctuation to GDP and Inflation both in combination with other variables as well as individually. We found that oil price fluctuation compared to oil prices drastically and asymmetrically affect the macro-economy of Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price, Cointegration, Growth, Exports, Inflation, Granger Causality |
| JEL: | Q43 |
| Date: | 2013–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52560&r=int |
| By: | Islam, Faridul; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur |
| Abstract: | The paper implements the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing, supplemented by the Johansen-Juselius (JJ) approaches to cointegration to explore a long run relation among energy use, economic growth, financial development, capital, and trade openness in Australia. We also apply the vector error correction model (VECM) to understand the short run dynamics. The study period, 1965 – 2009, is hallmarked by major shocks across the globe which can potentially cause structural break in the series. To recognize this possibility, we implement the Zivot-Andrews (1992) and the Clemente et al. (1998) tests. The results confirm the long run relationship among the series. The Granger causality test shows bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth; financial development and energy consumption; trade openness and economic growth; economic growth and financial development; energy consumption and trade openness; and financial development and trade openness. The findings offer fresh perspectives and insight for crafting energy policy for sustained economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Financial Development, Trade, Structural Break, ARDL, Australia |
| JEL: | E00 |
| Date: | 2013–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52546&r=int |