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on International Trade |
By: | Pedro Martins; Luca David Opromolla |
Abstract: | The analysis of the effects of firm-level international trade on wages has so far focused on the role of exports, which are also typically treated as a composite good. However, we show in this paper that firm-level imports can actually be a wage determinant as important as exports. Furthermore, we also find significant differences in the relationship between trade and wages across types of products. In particular, firms that increase their exports (imports) of high- (intermediate-) technology products tend to increase their salaries. Our analysis is based on unique data from Portugal, obtained by merging a matched firm-worker panel and a matched firm-transaction panel. Our data set follows the population of manufacturing firms and all their workers from 1995 to 2005 and allows for several control variables, including jobspell fixed effects. |
JEL: | F16 J31 F15 |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201002&r=int |
By: | Jean-Charles Bricongne (Banque de France, 39, rue Croix-des-Petits-Champs, 75049 Paris Cedex 01, France.); Lionel Fontagné (Paris School of Economics, University Paris 1, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13, France.); Guillaume Gaulier (Banque de France, 39, rue Croix-des-Petits-Champs, 75049 Paris Cedex 01, France.); Daria Taglioni (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Vincent Vicard (Banque de France, 39, rue Croix-des-Petits-Champs, 75049 Paris Cedex 01, France.) |
Abstract: | The unprecedented drop in international trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 has mainly been analysed at the macroeconomic or sectoral level. However, exporters who are heterogeneous in terms of productivity, size or external financial dependence should be heterogeneously affected by the crisis. This issue is examined in this paper by using data on monthly exports at the product and destination level for some 100,000 individual French exporters, up to 2009M4. We show that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters. Small and large exporters are evenly affected when sectoral and geographical specialisations are controlled for. Lastly, exporters (small and large) in sectors structurally more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis. JEL Classification: F02, F10, G01. |
Keywords: | financial crisis, international trade, firms’ heterogeneity, intensive and extensive margins. |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101227&r=int |
By: | Archanun KOHPAIBOON |
Abstract: | This paper examines how the private sector responds to export opportunities induced by FTAs, using evidence from the Thai manufacturing sector during the period 2003-08. The core methodology is to undertake an inter-product panel-data econometric analysis to gain a better understanding of FTA utilization across products. Different from previous studies, it makes an explicit distinction between actual and preferential trade in which the latter is measured by the administrative records of FTA implementation. Our findings suggest that the product coverage is limited. Products that have benefited from FTA tariff preferences so far are highly concentrated. Our key finding from the econometric analysis is that as rules of origin (ROO) constraints are binding empirically, the ability to comply with ROO as well as tariff margin does matter in firmsf decisions to use FTAs. The estimated cost in compiling ROO is equivalent to a tariff in the range of 2% to 10%. Besides, the FTA impact on exports is conditioned by trade volume during the pre-signing FTA period. The key policy inference is that it is unlikely to be able to promote exports by maximizing the number of FTAs, while ignoring the nature of FTA partners. The nature of the FTA partner does matter in establishing whether the signed FTA would be useful. In addition, for Japan and countries which are enthusiastic about FTAs as a mode for further liberalization, FTA negotiation on tariff cuts schedules must be undertaken in a more comprehensive way in which ROO and trade facilitation issues must be incorporated in the negotiation. |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:10039&r=int |
By: | Angela Cheptea; Lionel Fontagne; Soledad Zignago |
Abstract: | Countries no longer specialise in products or sectors, but in varieties of the same product (sold at different prices). To study the way in which the European Union copes with the emergence of new big world exporters in this context, we analyse the redistribution of world market shares at the level of product variety. We distinguish for each product three price ranges. We decompose the growth of exports into structural effects (geographic and sectoral) and into a pure performance effect. From 1994 to 2007 the EU25 withstood the competition of emerging countries better than the U.S. and Japan. European market share losses arise during the 1994-2000 period, and are mainly explained by poor export performance of old member states. More precisely, the EU gains market shares in the upper segment of the market, by cumulating good performance and favourable structure effects, contrary to the U.S. and Japan which withdraw extensively from this segment of the market. Finally, all developed countries lose market shares in high-technology products to developing countries, with the EU losing less than other countries. |
Keywords: | International trade; export performance; market shares; shift-share; European Union |
JEL: | F12 F15 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-12&r=int |
By: | Armando Silva (Instituto Politécnico do Porto - ESEIG) |
Abstract: | Using a longitudinal database (1996-2003) at the plant level, this paper aims to shed light on the causal nexus between production-related subsidies and exports, in Portugal. Given that there is a selection of firms for subsidies we implement a propensity score matching approach in order to evaluate adequately the effects of subsidies on both the probability of domestic firms to begin exporting and on the probability of increasing the export share of already exporters. At one hand, we find no impact of subsidies on the ability of domestic firms to become exporters; at the other hand, some evidence of positive effects of subsidies are detected on export shares, especially for higher levels of subsidy per employee and for specific sectors as a clear sectoral heterogeneity is observed. Complementarily, some weak positive effects of subsidies are noticed in employment but no evidence is observed for firms´ sales or efficiency. |
Keywords: | Subsidies, Exports, Portugal, Matching |
JEL: | F13 F14 H29 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:fepwps:383&r=int |
By: | Indra Nath Mukherji (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) |
Abstract: | Relations between India and Nepal have been bound by long-standing geographical, historical, cultural, social and economic ties that the peoples of the two countries have shared since times immemorial. For quite some time, and particularly with the installation of Maoist-led coalition government in August 2008, the demand for revision of treaties trade and of peace and friendship was being made in the context of new developments in bilateral relationships. Underscoring the close linkage between security and economy, India’s first treaty of Trade and Commerce with Nepal was signed on the same day as the Treaty of Peace and Friendship on 31 July 1950. The first section of this paper traces historically, the evolution of India’s Trade and Transit Treaties with Nepal beginning from the time such a Treaty was initiated in 1950 till the last revision was enacted on 28 October 2009. The paper focuses particularly on the last revision to analyze to what extent it addresses the concerns of the respective governments and stakeholders. The impression obtained is that the amendments rightly stress on a variety of non-tariff barriers as also non-tariff measures that need to be streamlined to enable trade, particularly exports from Nepal to flow more smoothly to India. However some time-bound institutional mechanism needs to be put in place to ensure that the incorporated provisions do not remain in the nature of best endeavor clauses. This is particularly relevant given that with the signing of several bilateral/regional free trade agreements by India over the last decade, the preference margin being enjoyed by Nepal has been severely eroded. In this context India’s offer to consider the removal of special additional duties on Nepalese exports to India (on specific request from Nepal) appears plausible. The paper highlights the trend in bilateral trade between the two countries. It notes that barring setbacks in certain years, the bilateral trade between the two countries has been growing briskly. It notes that even though Nepal has been able to diversify its trade with India, its trade deficit with India has been increasing sharply, and its export earnings are barely sufficient to meet the cost of imports of petroleum products from India. The paper identifies products with high trade potential of both the countries so that these could be targeted in trade facilitation measures or when mutual recognition of each country’s certification is accepted by the other. Noting the close linkage between trade and investment, the paper examines the volume and status of Indian foreign direct investments in Nepal. An exercise in intra-industry trade between the two countries gives direction for sectors/industries in which Indian investment could flow.The paper expresses concern about the labour situation in Nepal and the lack of arbitration tribunals in case of dispute. Quite a number of Indian industries have been shut down and those in the pipeline could also be adversely affected. In this context the need for long- pending Bilateral Investment treaty between the two countries has been emphasized. |
Keywords: | India, Nepal, security, trade, trade and transit treaty, trade treaty |
JEL: | F10 F14 F21 |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2215&r=int |
By: | Kamil Yilmaz (Koc University) |
Abstract: | This article focuses on the customs union (CU) already in effect for almost a decade and a half now and links the impact of the CU with the sources of support as well as resistance within Turkey to further integration with the EU. Overall the CU had a positive impact on Turkish economy through improved productivity in manufacturing industries. While the increased import penetration after the CU increased the competitive pressure on several industries in the short run, this short-run impact helped them improve productivity in the medium- to long-term. The CU also led to significant improvements in the implementation of competition policy with additional positive effects on Turkish economy. With increased productivity and competitiveness manufacturing industries was able to weather the storm during 2001 economic crisis and in the wake of Chinese entry to world export markets. However, following the successful initial adaptation phase and the significant changes in the EU’s trade policy framework towards preferential trade agreements, the CU has started to generate some strains on Turkish trade. |
Keywords: | Turkey, European Union, Customs Union, Free Trade Area, Welfare analysis, Computable General Equilibrium, Exports, Imports |
JEL: | F14 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1023&r=int |
By: | Richard Green; Nicholas Vasilakos |
Abstract: | On windy days, Denmark tends to export electricity to its neighbours, and to import power on calm days. Storing electricity in this way thus allows the country to deal with the intermittency of wind generation. We show that this kind of behaviour is theoretically optimal when a region with wind and thermal generation can trade with one based on hydro power. However, annual trends in Denmark's trade follow its output of thermal generation, Nordic production of hydro power, and the amount of water available to Scandinavian generators, not wind generation. We estimate the cost of volatility in Denmark's wind output to equal between 4% and 8% of its market value. |
Keywords: | Electricity, Wind generation, Hydro generation, storage, international trade |
JEL: | D43 L13 L94 Q41 Q42 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:10-19&r=int |
By: | Dolores Anon Higon; Nicholas Vasilakos |
Abstract: | This paper discusses the impact of foreign-ownership presence on the productivity performance of British-owned domestic retailers. In particular, we analyse the existence of productivity spillovers, in the form of knowledge transfer, by using establishment-level data from the Annual Respondents Dataset over the period 1997-2003. The results confirm the presence of such spillovers and highlight their positive and significant impact on the productivity of domestic firms, though these spillovers are mostly confined to the region in which foreign subsidiaries locate. There is also evidence that the productivity benefit from regional FDI spillovers increases with the absorptive capacity of domestic retailers. |
Keywords: | FDI, Multinationals, Productivity, Retailing, Spillovers |
JEL: | D24 F23 L25 L81 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:10-23&r=int |
By: | Prabir De (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) |
Abstract: | The primary objective of this paper is to find whether or not the governance and institutions matter for enhancing Asia’s trade. In this study, we have performed a comprehensive empirical analysis of the linkages between governance and trade at the Asian subregional level. Our results indicate that all individual governance indicators except regulatory quality have significant impact on trade in Asia, of which government effectiveness is the most crucial for Asia’s trade promotion. One of the conclusions of this paper is that soft infrastructure such as the institutions and governance are important for enhancing Asia’s trade. In other words, good governance and institutions help unlock trade potential of a region (or a nation). Improved governance, particularly at the sectoral level, can carry huge payoffs at a time when Asia is planning to pursue a free trade for the entire region. Ignoring “governance weaknesses” can stultify economic returns to free trade. Therefore, more effective policy approaches toward improved governance are needed to complement the regional trade policy in Asia and beyond. |
Keywords: | governance, institutions, trade, Asia |
JEL: | F10 F13 F53 |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:2219&r=int |
By: | Jaime Martínez-Martín (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona) |
Abstract: | This paper provides further insights into the dynamics of exports and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Spain from a time-series approach. The contribution of the paper is twofold: i) the existence of either substitution or a complementary relationship between Spanish outward investments and exports is empirically tested using a multivariate cointegrated model (VECM). The evolution in exchange flows (1993-2008) and country-specific variables (such as world demand - including Spain’s main recently growing foreign markets - for trade flows and the relative price of exports in order to proxy new global competitors) are taken into account for the first time. And ii) the growth in the trade of services in recent decades leads us to test a specific causality relationship by disaggregating between goods and services flows. Our results provide evidence of a positive (Granger) causality relationship running from FDI to exports of goods (stronger) and to exports of services (weaker) in the long run, the complementarity relation of which is consistent with vertical FDI strategies. In the short run, however, only exports of goods are affected (positively) by FDIs. |
Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Granger-Causality. JEL classification:F21, F40 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201010&r=int |
By: | Ram Upendra Das (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) |
Abstract: | Rules of origin (ROO) have emerged as an area in which consensus is hard to achieve among negotiating countries within an RTA. Disagreements over rules of origin have often deferred the implementation of several trade agreements. One of the reasons for this is because ROO are viewed as those obstructing trade. Most of the literature on the subject too argues that ROO reduce efficiency costs in production and restrict market access. It is argued in this paper that both the negotiations and the analytical literature pertaining to ROO display a lack of sound understanding of the implications of rules of origin. Developing a comprehensive view on the subject, with a developmental perspective of ROO, could help prevent wastage of negotiating-time, avoid cumbersome procedures and implement the agreements with the intention to reap the economic benefits of ROO. The paper highlights the economics of ROO, focuses on the issue of near-optimum ROO formulation, presents a factual account of ROO as evolved in South Asia, empirically estimates of the effects of ROO on trade in an FTA and finally makes new policy suggestions relating to ROO implementation and enforcement. |
Keywords: | Rules of origin, trade, South Asia |
JEL: | F00 F10 F13 |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2218&r=int |
By: | Bouet, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David |
Abstract: | In 2001, the World Trade Organization launched a highly ambitious program of multilateral liberalization. Eight years later, concluding the negotiations is uncertain, though an opportunity still exists. Since 2001, many proposals on market access have been brought to the negotiating table by the E.U., the United States, and the G-20. Because it is politically and economically acceptable to many parties, the final December 2008 package could be the basis of an agreement. An evaluation of these various proposals shows how trade negotiations have been following countries’ strategic interests. In eight years, the ambition of the formula to reduce agricultural market access tariffs has increased, but flexibilities added to accommodate domestic political constraints have offset delivered market access. The December 2008 package would reduce these average tariffs by 25 percent, a reduction very close to the one implied by the Harbinson and Girard proposals of 2003. This has to be compared with the 73 percent reduction in world agricultural protection by the very ambitious 2005 U.S. proposal. The 2005 G-20 and E.U. proposals were intermediate outcomes. The December 2008 package implies a reduction of agricultural protection by 6 percentage points in high-income countries and 0.5 percentage points in middle-income countries. If the U.S. proposal had been applied, these figures would have been 12.4 and 4.7, respectively. Different scenarios imply losses for developing countries, reflecting eroding preferences and rising terms of trade for imported commodities, including food products. We study how this trade reform can be more development-friendly. |
Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Developing countries, Trade negotiations, WTO Doha round, |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:997&r=int |
By: | Bouet, Antoine; Laborde Debucquet, David |
Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the rationales for the use of export taxes, in particular in the context of a food crisis. First, we summarize the effects of export taxes using both partial and general equilibrium theoretical models. When large countries have an objective of constant food domestic prices, in the event of an increase in world agricultural prices the optimal response is to decrease import tariffs in net food-importing countries and to increase export tariffs in net food-exporting countries. The latter decision is welfare improving while the former is welfare reducing: it is the price to pay to get domestic food prices constant. Small countries are harmed by both decisions. Second, we illustrate the costs of a lack of cooperation in and regulation of (binding process) such policies in a time of crisis using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model illustration, mimicking the mechanisms that have appeared during the recent food price surge. We conclude with a call for international regulation, in particular because small net food-importing countries may be substantially harmed by these beggar-thy-neighbor policies that amplify the already negative impact of the food crisis. |
Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE), export taxes, Food crisis, optimum tariff, |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:994&r=int |
By: | Bodvarsson, Örn B. (St. Cloud State University); Hou, Jack W. (California State University, Long Beach) |
Abstract: | China has been experiencing two major demographic sea changes since the late 1970s: (i) Internal migration, primarily rural-to-urban, on a scale that dwarfs all other countries at any time in history; and (ii) a shift in its age distribution. The basic question posed in this paper is: How are aging and migration related in post-reform China? We argue that there is probably two-way causality: Shifts in the origin region's age distribution induce changes in the scale and structure of migration, but out- (in-) migration shifts the origin's (destination's) age distribution. We examine theoretically and empirically the relationship between origin age distribution and interprovincial migration in China using province-level census data for 1985-2005. The goal of the paper is two-fold: (i) To develop a more refined theoretical model that explains how a migrant's age affects his/her likelihood of migration; and (ii) to obtain unbiased estimates of the effect of age on the interprovincial migration rate. Our theory section is motivated by the observation that, while most researchers recognize the importance of including age in theoretical and empirical models of migration, the exact reasons for why age affects migration have not been analyzed very thoroughly. We model the migration decision and demonstrate that there is an ambiguous relationship between age and the likelihood of migration. Implications of the theory are tested with an extended modified gravity model using OLS and 2SLS. |
Keywords: | internal migration, age distribution, reforms |
JEL: | J61 J11 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5070&r=int |
By: | Ram Upendra Das; Meenakshi Rishi (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) |
Abstract: | Trade liberalization and financial deepening have assumed greater significance for a country’s economic growth performance in recent times. Several theoretical and empirical studies have devoted considerable attention to the association between economic performance and trade liberalization as well as to the connections between financial market development and economic growth. However, literature is sparse in terms of the direct linkages between trade openness and financial sector development. This paper finds that trade openness and financial development are complementary and econometrically tests this hypothesis for India over a period of time. However, two important policy implications of the analysis presented in this paper deserve attention. First, although financial deepening has emerged as an important aspect of the economic growth strategy in the Indian context, since the sources of such a deepening may be both domestic as well as external; the importance of a judicious policy mix cannot be neglected, especially in the wake of the current global financial meltdown. Second, as documented in the econometric analysis, the complementarities between trade openness and financial deepening appear to be less pronounced. However, this should be interpreted with some caution. While the Indian data suggest that trade and financial liberalization policies may possibly be pursued independent of each other, this by no means suggests that there are no reinforcing linkages between the two. |
Keywords: | trade openess, financial liberalisation, India |
JEL: | F13 F15 C01 |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2217&r=int |
By: | Sadhana Srivastava; Ramkishen S. Rajan |
Abstract: | An important and vigorous policy debate ongoing in Asia concerns the impact of the economic rise of the PRC on the rest of the region. This paper examines the relative performances of the PRC, selected ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), and India over time, as well as the intensity and changing dynamics of their intra-regional economic interactions. Focus is on trends and patterns in merchandise trade, trade in commercial services, and FDI flows the last two decades and potential impact of the PRC’s continued economic emergence on ASEAN and India. [Working Paper No. 14] |
Keywords: | vigorous policy, debate, Asia, Economic Rise, ASEAN, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, intra-regional, economic interactions, commercial services, potential impact, |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2680&r=int |
By: | J L Ford; S Sen; Hongxu Wei |
Abstract: | The relationship between high levels of FDI and of economic growth has been of enduring interest in the development literature, particularly in the context of economies like China which have enjoyed exception inflows of foreign capital as well as experiencing unprecedented economic growth. The specific literature on China has failed to come to a definite conclusion as to whether FDI does increase growth mainly because they focus on one or several different channels through which FDI might affect the macro-economy. A more comprehensive framework is necessary to investigate the overarching relationships between economic development and FDI, as identified by endogenous growth theory, by including the potential influences on them, and vice-versa, of domestic capital stock, human capital, the state of technology, the openness of the economy and its gradual liberalisation. Although we investigate those influences in a VAR framework, our main focus is the presence of long-run cointegration, between the relevant variables and aggregate output in long-run equilibrium. We find, and then identify, such long run structural relationships; one of which identifies a long-run "production function". In the long-run FDI reduces economic growth; but the latter increases the former. There are important impacts on variables such as employment, from FDI and other factors such as openness and technology transfer, which have both indirect or direct spill-over effects from FDI. |
Keywords: | Economic growth, FDI, endogenous growth theory, spill-over effects, VAR, impulse reponses, VEC, identified cointegration vectors, long-run relationships between growth and FDI |
JEL: | O23 O24 F43 |
Date: | 2010–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:10-24&r=int |
By: | Kasturi Das (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) |
Abstract: | Over the recent past, Geographical Indication (GI) has emerged as one of the most contentious categories of intellectual property (IP). Two among the three TRIPS issues presently under discussion at the WTO pertain to GIs, the third being the relationship between the TRIPS and the CBD. Interestingly, in sharp contrast to the archetypical North-South divide on IP issues in the realm of the WTO and beyond, in the sphere of GIs one comes across developing countries joining hands with developed countries either as demandeurs or opponents in the ongoing WTO talks, depending on their respective stakes on GIs. The aim of this paper is to provide a concise account of the ongoing WTO discussions on GIs. However, the dynamics of the current negotiations cannot be put into perspective unless judged in the light of the key reasons underlying the discordance between the two sides of this highly contentious area, namely the ‘Old World’ and the ‘New World’. With this aim in view, the paper explores some of the key historical, legal and economic reasons underlying the GI row. Given that the issues presently under discussion have their origin in the Uruguay Round negotiations and the compromise deal on GIs that they culminated into, the paper undertakes a rigorous assessment of the drafting history of the Uruguay Round. It then goes on to track the ongoing negotiations and analyzes various negotiating proposals under consideration on the three GI issues: multilateral register for wines and spirits; extension of the higher level of protection presently available for wines and spirits to all product categories; and the ‘claw-back’ proposal of the European Communities (under the agriculture agenda). The paper argues that the recent emergence of a strategic alliance of more than 100 Member countries in support of a parallelism on the three IP issues may be helpful in pushing the GI agenda forward, including the case of ‘extension’ that has been strongly supported by many developing countries including China, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, among others. However, adequate legal protection at the international level through the ‘extension’ route can at best be regarded as necessary but in no way sufficient for reaping the commercial benefits out of the Southern GIs in the global market. Hence, the developing country proponents of GIs need to weigh the costs and benefits among various issues of interest to them before taking any particular stance at the WTO in the future. Given that the aforesaid strategic alliance was reached at the cost of a significant compromise on the part some of these developing countries on the TRIPS/CBD front, it remains an open question whether such a compromise was worth making for these countries, many of whom could actually have benefited more by getting a better deal on TRIPS/CBD than on GIs! |
Keywords: | geographical indication, intellectual property, WTO, |
JEL: | F00 F13 F19 |
Date: | 2010 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:tradew:2216&r=int |