nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2007‒10‒20
23 papers chosen by
Martin Berka
Massey University

  1. Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade By Joseph Francois; Miriam Manchin
  2. "Globalization and the Changing Trade Debate Suggestions for a New Agenda" By Thomas I. Palley
  3. Endogenous growth and trade liberalization between asymmetric countries By Daniela Marconi
  4. Openess to trade and industry cost dispersion: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms By Massimo Del Gatto; Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano; Marcello Pagnini
  5. Comparative advantage patterns and domestic determinants in emerging countries: an analysis with a focus on technology By Daniela Marconi; Valeria Rolli
  6. The Social Consequences of Economic Globalization By Dumont M.
  7. The Shrinking Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas Criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union – A Beta Regression Approach. By João Silvestre; António Mendonça; José Passos
  8. Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and the Costs of Corporate Taxation By Christian Keuschnigg
  9. Trade Costs and Some Puzzles in International Macroeconomics By Luke Willard
  10. The End of Textiles Quotas, dilemma and vision in the Garments Sector: A Case Study on Bangladesh. By ASM, KABIR
  11. Trade, Technique and Composition Effects: What is Behind the Fall in World-wide SO2 Emissions, 1990-2000? By de Melo, Jaime; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole Andréa
  12. Tariff revenue sharing rules in a customs union: a new methodology applied to the MERCOSUR case By Marcel Vaillant; Alvaro Lalanne
  13. Export prices, product quality and firms' characteristic: An analisys on a sample of Italian firms By Matteo Bugamelli
  14. Tax Competition for International Producers and the Mode of Foreign Market Entry By Ronald B Davies; Hartmut Egger; Peter Egger
  15. Equity and Trade Policy By Joseph Francois; Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
  16. The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence By Sumie Sato; Manabe Masashi
  17. Antidumping Duties Under Asymmetric Information By Xenia Matschke; Anja Schottner
  18. Education and growth: an industry-level analysis of the Portuguese manufacturing By Marta Simões; Adelaide Duarte
  19. Containerization – Building Global Trade Competitiveness By Raghuram G.; Gangwar Rachna
  20. Why, how and when did GTAP happen? What has it achieved? Where is it heading? By Alan A. Powell
  21. Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913 By Michael D. Bordo; Alberto F. Cavallo; Christopher M. Meissner
  22. Evaluating the Location Efficiency of Arabian and African Seaports Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) By Ahmed Salem Al-Eraqi; Carlos Pestana Barros; Adli Mustaffa; Ahamad Tajudin Khader
  23. Export intensity and the competitive intelligence of exporting companies: evidence from Belgium and South Africa By Cuyvers L.; Dumont M.; Viviers W.; De Pelsmacker P.; Muller M.-L.; Jegers M.; Saayman A.

  1. By: Joseph Francois (Johannes Kepler University (Linz)); Miriam Manchin (University College (London))
    Abstract: We work with a panel of bilateral trade flows from 1988 to 2002, exploring the influence of infrastructure, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. We are interested in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. We depart from the institutions and infrastructure literature in this respect, using Heckman selection model-based gravity estimators of trade flows. We also depart from this literature by mixing principal components (to condense our institutional and infrastructure measures) with a focus on deviations from expected values for given income cohorts to control for multicollinearity. Infrastructure, and institutional quality, are significant determinants not only of export levels, but also of the likelihood exports will take place at all. Our results support the notion that export performance, and the propensity to take part in the trading system at all, depends on institutional quality and access to well developed transport and communications infrastructure. Indeed, this dependence is far more important, empirically, than variations in tariffs in explaining sample variations in North-South trade. This implies that policy emphasis on developing country market access, instead of support for trade facilitation, may be misplaced.
    Keywords: exports, trade, institutions, infrastructure, zero-trade, gravity model
    JEL: O19 F10 F15
    Date: 2007–04
  2. By: Thomas I. Palley
    Abstract: The failure of the Doha Development Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations in July 2006 was the first major collapse of a multilateral trade round since World War II. Research Associate Thomas I. Palley sees the failure as an event that could mark the close of a 60-year era of trade policy largely centered on increasing market access and reducing tariffs, quotas, and subsidies. Doha’s demise represents an opportunity to challenge the intellectual dominance of the current WTO paradigm, to expose the failings of the neoliberal model of economic development, and to reposition the global trade debate.
    Date: 2007–07
  3. By: Daniela Marconi (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The paper presents a general equilibrium model of endogenous growth and trade between two countries, an advanced country (A) and a backward country (B). The development stage is summarized by the level of knowledge stock accumulated through R&D investments. The latter generates technological progress that intermediate goods producing firms, operating under increasing returns to scale and monopolistic competition, perform to obtain process innovations (reduction of production costs) when they are incumbents, or product innovations if they are new entrants. The model shows that convergence in long-run growth rates can be obtained even in absence of international technology spillover, in which case, under the assumption of no variety overlap, the gain from trade will be only static. Dynamic effects will be delivered instead in presence of an initial overlap in the varieties produced in the two countries, together with a wide gap in unit production costs. In this case it is shown that the impact of trade liberalization on firms profits might generate a cumulative causation process which may lead to a polarization of innovative productions in the advanced country.
    Keywords: endogenous growth; trade liberalization; scale effect.
    JEL: F12 O40
    Date: 2007–06
  4. By: Massimo Del Gatto (University of Cagliari); Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano (University of Bologna); Marcello Pagnini (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We use Italian firm-level data to investigate the impact of trade openness on the distribution of firms across marginal cost levels. In so doing, we implement a procedure that allows us to control not only for the standard transmission bias identified in firm-level TFP regressions but also for the omitted price bias due to imperfect competition. We find that more open industries are characterized by a smaller dispersion of costs across active firms. Moreover, in those industries the average cost is also smaller.
    Keywords: Cost dispersion, openness to trade, firm-level data, firm selection, total factor productivity.
    JEL: F12 F15 R13
    Date: 2007–06
  5. By: Daniela Marconi (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department); Valeria Rolli (Bank of Italy, Economic Research epartment)
    Abstract: During the last two decades a number of emerging economies have become deeply engaged in technology-intensive production. This has been reflected in a shift in their international trade specialization from labor-intensive towards capital-intensive goods and in rapid productivity gains across all manufacturing activities. The paper draws on a sample of sixteen emerging countries to investigate the linkages between the pattern of revealed comparative advantages (RCAs), captured by a modified version of the Lafay index of international trade specialization, and the competitiveness structure of the domestic manufacturing sector, measured by a set of industry and country-specific variables. Positive and large RCAs are found to be associated with low unit labor costs in both low-technology (labor-intensive) and medium-or-high tech sectors; on the other hand, domestic accumulation of physical capital is associated with positive and large RCAs in medium-or-high tech sectors. The international disadvantage (negative RCAs) in technology-intensive production tends to increase for countries with low human capital, whereas it diminishes for countries that have large domestic markets and import technology through foreign capital goods.
    Keywords: Revealed comparative advantages, technological up-grading
    JEL: F14 O10
    Date: 2007–09
  6. By: Dumont M.
    Abstract: If mainstream international trade theories overwhelmingly point out the welfare to be gained by all countries in reducing trade barriers, some of these theories also clearly imply that trade liberalisation is not neutral, e.g. in terms of income distribution. International trade competition, alongside with technological change, has been considered as a possible explanation for increased wage inequality in some industrialized countries. In some recent theories, free trade is shown to be potentially detrimental to technologically lagging countries. If this would be the case, trade liberalisation could actually hamper rather than spur economic growth in developing countries. In this chapter, a critical review is proposed of some theoretical and empirical arguments in favour or in opposition to economic globalisation as a way to reduce the welfare gap between developed and developing countries or as a threat to the social cohesion in (ageing) developed countries.
    Date: 2006–10
  7. By: João Silvestre; António Mendonça; José Passos
    Abstract: The endogeneity of optimum currency areas criteria has been widely studied since Frankel and Rose (1998) seminal paper. Literature normally suggests that there is a positive relationship between trade and business cycles correlation. This paper develops work on this subject (Silvestre and Mendonça, 2007) where we confirm this hypothesis in euro area countries and UE-15 for 1967-2003 period using OLS and 2SLS estimates. However, we also find then that trade influence on cycles synchronization diminished in the last years. Now our goal was precisely to evaluate this question. Using a non-linear model based on Beta distribution in the same sample, we concluded that trade has a decreasing marginal effect on business cycles correlation. This result shows that trade flows are important in the first stages of economic integration, but become less important as trade intensity increases. Other factors must then be considered.
    Keywords: European Monetary Union (EMU); Business Cycles Correlation; Optimum Currency Areas; International Trade; Beta Regression.
    JEL: E32 E42
    Date: 2007
  8. By: Christian Keuschnigg (University of St.Gallen (IFF-HSG), CEPR and CESifo)
    Abstract: This paper develops a model of a monopolistically competitive industry with extensive and intensive business investment and shows how these margins respond to changes in average and marginal corporate tax rates. Intensive investment refers to the size of a firm’s capital stock. Extensive investment refers to the firm’s production location and reflects the trade-off between exports and foreign direct investment as alternative modes of foreign market access. The paper derives comparative static effects of the corporate tax and shows how the cost of public funds depends on the measures of effective marginal and average tax rates and on the behavioral elasticities of extensive and intensive investment.
    Keywords: Exports, foreign direct investment, corporate taxation, extensive and intensive investment, effective tax rates, costs of public funds
    JEL: D21 F23 H25 L11 L22
    Date: 2007
  9. By: Luke Willard (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) argue that trade costs provide at least part of the explanation for a number of puzzles in international macroeconomics. Using data on imports to the United States from developed economies, this paper investigates whether trade costs are associated with correlations associated with three of these puzzles: the Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment puzzle; the purchasing power parity real exchange rate persistence puzzle; and the international consumption correlation puzzle. In general there is some evidence in support of Obstfeld and Rogoff’s argument, though the parameters are often imprecisely estimated.
    Keywords: consumption smoothing; Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; purchasing power puzzle; trade
    JEL: F00 F3 F4
    Date: 2007–10
  10. By: ASM, KABIR
    Abstract: Abstract: The phase-out of the quota is likely to have particular significance for the export of Bangladesh apparels to the US market. MFA’s impacts are not much related to a question of our $2 billion exports to the USA; or the $5 billion worth of exports made by Bangladesh globally. Rather, it is a question of how Bangladesh’s entire economy will be affected by the issue of quota phase out. RMG exports constitute about 75% of Bangladesh’s annual export and provide direct employment to 1.5 million females and indirectly an additional 8 to 10 million people. The global clothing trade is evolving on a continuous basis and that the phase out of quota restrictions and forming of trade blocs has become a reality. Moreover Bangladesh is convulsed by fierce class struggles, centred on the country’s garment industry. Many tens of thousands of workers have gone on strike, blocked roads, attacked factories and other buildings, demonstrated, fought the police and rioted in the streets. Every day comes news of fresh strikes in a variety of industries — mainly the ready-made garment (RMG) sector, but also mill workers, river transport workers, rail workers, journalists, lecturers and teachers. The revolt began on 20 May2006 with garment workers’ strikes in the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka — beginning in a small number of factories over issues including the arrest of worker activists and non-payment of wages. By 23 May2006 this struggle had been generalised, with action at a much larger number of factories and demonstrations across the city. A massive army and police presence around garment factories, in some cases completely blockading and creating check points for entry to Export Processing Zones, temporarily calmed things; but strikes continued to take place at numerous factories, leading to solidarity strikes from nearby workplaces and semi-spontaneous demonstrations.
    Keywords: Preferential trade arrangements in South Asia: options for Bangladesh; wto; MFA Phase-Out: The Emerging Scenario Early signals and major competitors
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2007–01–09
  11. By: de Melo, Jaime; Grether, Jean-Marie; Mathys, Nicole Andréa
    Abstract: Combining unique data bases on emissions with sectoral output and employment data, we study the sources of the fall in world-wide SO2 emissions and estimate the impact of trade on emissions. Contrarily to concerns raised by environmentalists, an emission-decomposition exercise shows that scale effects are dominated by technique effects working towards a reduction in emissions. A second exercise comparing the actual trade situation with an autarky benchmark estimates that trade, by allowing clean countries to become net importers of emissions, leads to a 10% increase in world emissions with respect to autarky in 1990, a figure that shrinks to 3.5% in 2000. Additionally, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that emissions related to transport are of smaller magnitude, roughly 3% in both periods. In a third exercise, we use linear programming to simulate extreme situations where world emissions are either maximal or minimal. It turns out that effective emissions correspond to a 90% reduction with respect to the worst case, but that another 80% reduction could be reached if emissions were minimal.
    Keywords: decomposition; embodied emissions in trade; Environment; Growth; Trade; transport
    JEL: F11 Q56
    Date: 2007–10
  12. By: Marcel Vaillant (Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Alvaro Lalanne
    Abstract: Mechanisms for sharing the common tariff revenue in a customs union have received little attention in the literature (Syropoulus, 2003). Comparative analyses show that in past and current customs unions two main mechanisms are been used: generals rules and common funds. In this paper, a new mechanism which is fiscally neutral is developed, based on the final consumption criterion. The new methodology computes the extrazone imports and the common tariff revenue incorporated in intrazone trade both directly and indirectly. It extends the methodology of Lumega-Neso, Olarreaga and Schiff (2005) which was developed in a different context (measuring the effects of trade opening on technical progress). The technique developed here employs input-output tables together with observed trade flows, and is applied in the case of MERCOSUR. This methodology is useful not only because it offers a new option to policymakers but also because it leads to a new characterization of interregional trade flows. The paper derives interesting results in this respect. Intraregional trade in MERCOSUR comprises mainly locally produced goods with little extrazone import content, though there are important differences among MERCOSUR members. Brazil’s intrazone exports incorporate the most extrazone imports and hence should be the main net contributor to the compensation fund created by the proposed mechanism.
    Keywords: common tariff revenue; sharing rules; Customs Union
    JEL: F15 F13
    Date: 2007–08
  13. By: Matteo Bugamelli (Bank of Italy, Research department)
    Abstract: The unsatisfactory performance of Italian export volumes in the last decade has been attributed to three factors; the product specialization still centered around traditional sectors, the small firm size and the exceptional rise in export unit values. This paper analyzes the latter with the aim of testing three alternative hypotheses: i) measurement error; ii) composition effect: globalization forcing the exit of less productive firms producing low quality goods would have raised the average quality and thus prices of exported goods; iii) pricing strategies: Italian firms would have maximized profit margins sacrificing volumes. On the basis of sample data on price variations by destination market at the firm-level, we find that: a) in the last decade (1996-2005), export unit values have overestimated export price dynamics by 2 percentage points on average every year; b) on the basis of our new export prices, the Italian loss in world market share has been smaller, but still larger as compared to France and Germany; c) the composition effect has had a limited role.
    Keywords: export unit values, product quality, firm size
    JEL: F1 L11 L15
    Date: 2007–06
  14. By: Ronald B Davies (University of Oregon); Hartmut Egger (University of Zurich, CESifo Munich, and Centre for Globalization and Economic Policy, University of Nottingham.); Peter Egger (Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, CESifo Munich, and Centre for Globalization and Economic Policy, University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: This paper studies tax competition between two countries for an international producer. The international producer chooses where to locate its headquarters and whether to serve the overseas market through exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) and local supply. We show that, in the absence of tax competition, the international firm may choose FDI even though this has welfare costs from a global point of view. With tax competition, the parent country’s tax is pinned down, allowing the host country to use its tax rate to enforce exporting instead of FDI. This leads to a Nash equilibrium in the tax setting game which is associated with higher world welfare than the no-tax situation. Thus, because of the effect on entry mode, tax competition provides heretofore unexplored benefits.
    Keywords: Tax competition; Multinational enterprises; Profit taxation
    JEL: F12 F23 H25
    Date: 2007
  15. By: Joseph Francois (Johannes Kepler University (Linz)); Hugo Rojas-Romagosa (CPB (the Hague))
    Abstract: We develop a dual approach to analyzing general equilibrium relationships between trade policy and household (as distinct from functional) income distribution, highlighting how general equilibrium distributional aspects of social welfare related to import protection may be examined alongside corresponding efficiency aspects in a dual framework. This includes the introduction of a social welfare function into the dual GE system that is explicitly separable between mean income and income dispersion. This then follows through to the government ob jective function. For government, this is manifested not only in special interest politics, but also through the direct impact of inequality on a governmentÕs ob jective function. We find that equity considerations may serve to counter lobbying interests in both capital-rich and capital-poor countries, though with an opposite marginal impact on the final policy outcome. We also identify a protectionist bias on the part of welfare maximizing governments in capital-rich countries. Our dual framework also offers a possible empirical framework for decomposition of policy-induced price changes into household inequality for a broad class of models.
    Keywords: Trade and inequality, Sen welfare functions, duality, political economy of equity
    JEL: F13 O15 D31 D72
    Date: 2007–05
  16. By: Sumie Sato (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Manabe Masashi (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka university)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate causal relationships among exports, imports, and economic growth in North Korea by using time series data for the period between 1964 and 2004. The empirical results show that there was Granger causality from imports to GNP in the first half of the period. However, there was a causal relationship from GNP to imports in the second half of the period. This implies that economic growth stimulates imports in North Korea. The North Korean economy escaped its import-led growth situation, which some socialist economies had experienced.
    Keywords: North Korea, import-led growth, export-led growth, causality test.
    JEL: P27 O11 E10
    Date: 2007–10
  17. By: Xenia Matschke (University of Connecticut); Anja Schottner (University of Bonn)
    Abstract: In the last two decades, trade liberalization under GATT/WTO has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping. The cost-based definition gives regulating authorities an opportunity to choose protection according to their liking. This paper investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework where the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. To induce truthful revelation, the government can design a tariff schedule, contingent on firms' cost reports, accompanied by a threat to collect additional information for report verification (i.e., auditing) and, in case misreporting is detected, to set penalty duties. We devise a mechanism where the domestic and foreign firm may be asked to provide cost reports under which the full-information, i.e., efficient, tariffs are implementable. We also discuss the conditions under which this policy is optimal and when it may be better to instead adopt a "facts available" policy, i.e., a policy where no information from the foreign firm is solicited.
    Keywords: antidumping duties, asymmetric information, trade protection
    JEL: F13 F16
    Date: 2007–10
  18. By: Marta Simões (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra); Adelaide Duarte (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)
    Abstract: TThis paper investigates the education–growth link at the more disaggregate industry level in the Portuguese manufacturing sector with a focus on different levels of education. The insights from new growth theory and a modified and augmented version of the Benhabib and Spiegel (1994) specification are the basis for the empirical analysis of the role of education in innovation and imitation activities highlighting a role for specific schooling levels across industries according to their technological characteristics and its interaction with international trade. We use data for the period 1986–1997, fourteen Portuguese manufacturing industries and panel data econometric techniques. Our most robust finding concerns the relevance of technology spillovers embodied in imports for productivity growth, as long as manufacturing industries employ workers with skills provided by secondary education. The Portuguese manufacturing industry cannot rely on automatic technological catch up for productivity growth so active trade and education policies are crucial to recover from the present bottom position in the rank of OECD productivity levels.
    Keywords: education, innovation, technology diffusion, productivity growth, panel data
    JEL: C23 I20 O30 O33
    Date: 2007
  19. By: Raghuram G.; Gangwar Rachna
    Abstract: India has 12 major and 187 non-major ports along its 7517 km coastline. Cargo traffic handled by Indian ports in 2006-07 was 649 mt, of which 80 mt (6.0 mTEUs) was the container traffic. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of container traffic for the past five years (2002-07) was 22.9 per cent. This was higher than the world’s average for the same period. Trade growth, penetration of containerisation, and hub and feeder service structure are the drivers of the container traffic growth. India’s export import growth has grown around 24 per cent during 2002-07. Its impact on container traffic growth could be higher, since a greater share of trade is moving towards finished goods requiring containerization. Presently, containerized cargo represents about 30% by value of India’s external trade, and this proportion is likely to grow as containerization increasingly penetrates the general cargo trades and increases its share from the current 68 per cent to nearer international levels of around 75-80 per cent [World Bank, 2007]. Considering various growth scenarios and studies, it appears that international trade growth and penetration would result in 21 mTEUs by 2015-16. Looking at the container traffic growth in the past few years, there seems to be scope for hub operations in India, possibly one each on the east and west coast. As per the projections made by a study of the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, 9 mTEUs of the Indian traffic of 21 mTEUs will be hubbed in 2015-16 [JNPT, 2006]. If 50 per cent hubbing were to take place in India, then 4.5 mTEUs will be hubbed in India, implying transhipment handling of 9 mTEUs. This requires port handling capacity of 30 mTEUs, with 9mTEUs as transhipment at hub ports. Further, shipping trends will play an important role in deciding whether the Indian ports have potential for hub operations. Hinterland connectivity is a critical area to ensure a seamless flow of containers and improved port productivity. Currently, 30% of the traffic is expected to move hinterland by rail and the remaining is expected to move entirely by road, mostly to nearby CFSs, and some to the interior Inland Container Depots (ICD) [PC, 2006]. There are also issues with respect to evacuation of containers from ICDs. There is a lot of road based congestion due to insufficient infrastructure. Interfacing with customs is another issue. This paper focuses on issues in marine and port operations, hinterland connectivity, and ICDs; in short, the entire supply chain of container movement for building global trade competitiveness.
    Date: 2007–10–11
  20. By: Alan A. Powell
    Abstract: Team research has been much more widespread in the natural sciences than in economics. Yet when it comes to modeling an economy (especially the global economy) in detail, the quantity and range of inputs necessary makes team work the only viable option. Drawing some inspiration from Australian experience, GTAP's founder, Tom Hertel, realized this from his Project's inception in 1993. The data base required to model international trade flows could not have been developed without the enthusiastic cooperation of many individuals and institutions around the world. Funding GTAP's central team at Purdue required external support. National agencies in Australia, Denmark, France, Germany, Holland, Japan, and the US are members of the supporting research consortium. The natural interest of international economic agencies led to GTAP having five such supporting agencies by 1997, which grew to ten by 2006. GTAP has striven to put the maximum feasible amount of its data, methodology and models into the public domain. It has run numerous residential intensive training courses in the use of the GTAP data and model: these have been held in the US, Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America. The success of these courses reflects the modeling experience of the teams of course instructors and the availability of special-purpose software which allows simulations to be run without programming skill or previous knowledge of the software used. Researchers making use of GTAP have been prolific in number, and in their output. In mid April 2007, applications listed on the GTAP web site numbered 781. There were 366 subscribers to the GTAP data base at the end of April 2007, but the number of individuals making use of GTAP data exceeded 4,000. A web search using Google Scholar for the 1997 GTAP monograph records more than 1,150 citations, while versions 3 and 5 of GTAP's data base are cited 279 and 389 times respectively. It is clear that GTAP has engendered a community of quantitatively-oriented trade economists, and has integrated their efforts with those of other economists having an economy-wide perspective, especially those working on economic development. GTAP's success as a policy tool has led to an ever increasing demand for its extension to cover more commodities, regions, and economic issues: international migration of labor and climate change, for instance. With the current level of financial support, such expansions to GTAP's range are possible only on a limited scale.
    Keywords: History of Global Trade Analysis Project,
    JEL: F1 F2 F4 C6 C8 D5
    Date: 2007–09
  21. By: Michael D. Bordo; Alberto F. Cavallo; Christopher M. Meissner
    Abstract: Using a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and stronger commitment to the gold standard had the opposite effect. These results are robust for many sudden stop definitions used in the literature. Finally, we use a treatment effects model to show that after controlling for endogeneity sudden stops have a strong negative association with growth in per capita output. We also show that banking, currency and debt crises that were preceded by a sudden stop have much greater negative relation with growth than in the absence of a sudden stop.
    JEL: F21 F32 N1 N10
    Date: 2007–10
  22. By: Ahmed Salem Al-Eraqi; Carlos Pestana Barros; Adli Mustaffa; Ahamad Tajudin Khader
    Abstract: In this paper the efficiency and performance is evaluated for 22 seaports in the region of East Africa and the Middle East. The aim of our study is to compare seaports situated on the maritime trade road between the East and the West. These are considered as middledistance ports at which goods from Europe and Far East/Australia can be exchanged and transhipped to all countries in the Middle East and East Africa. All these seaports are regional coasters, and dhow trade was built on these locations, leading this part of the world to become an important trade centre. Data was collected for 6 years (2000-2005) and a non-parametric linear programming method, DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) is applied. The ultimate goal of our study is: 1) to estimate the performance levels of the ports under consideration. This will help in proposing solutions for better performance and developing future plans. 2) to select optimum transhipment locations.
    Keywords: Middle East and East African Seaports; Data Envelopment Analysis; Seaports Efficiency; Performance measurement of Containers Ports; transshipment.
    Date: 2007
  23. By: Cuyvers L.; Dumont M.; Viviers W.; De Pelsmacker P.; Muller M.-L.; Jegers M.; Saayman A.
    Abstract: The present paper investigates into the relationship between Competitive Intelligence (CI) factors, characteristics, information sources, needs, requirements and the export intensity of exporting companies in two distinct samples (Flanders and South Africa). We establish whether there are significant differences between firms, grouped according to export intensity with respect to awareness, use, information sources and attitude towards CI activities. A questionnaire was developed and sent to exporting firms, resulting in a usable sample of 309 South African and 295 Flemish respondents. These firms are grouped according to export intensity, and CI practices between groups are compared. In contrast with some distinct cross-country differences, in both Flanders and South Africa, export intensive firms appear to be more aware and supportive of CI activities than less export intensive firms.
    Date: 2006–10

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