nep-int New Economics Papers
on International Trade
Issue of 2005‒10‒15
twenty-six papers chosen by
Martin Berka
Massey University

  1. Airplanes and Comparative Advantage By James Harrigan
  2. Bayes and Gravity By Ranjan, Priya; Tobias, Justin
  3. Analysis of Non-Tariff Measures: The Case of Prohibitions and Quotas By Peter Czaga
  4. Exercises in Futility: Post-War Automobile-Trade Negotiations between Japan and the United States By Donald W. Katzner; Mikhail J. Nikomarvo
  5. "Trade Credit, Bank Loans, and Monitoring: Evidence from Japan" By Yoshiro Miwa; J. Mark Ramseyer
  6. The Environmental Consequences of Trade: Evidence from Subnational Trade Flows By Chintrakarn, Pandej; Millimet, Daniel
  7. Analysis of Non-Tariff Barriers of Concern to Developing Countries By OECD
  8. Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through: A Tale of Two Policy Regimes in India By Helena Marques; Sushanta Mallick
  9. Services Trade Liberalisation: Identifying Opportunities and Gains By Julia Nielson; Daria Taglioni
  10. Trade and Structural Adjustment Policies in Selected Developing Countries By Jens Andersson; Federico Bonaglia; Kiichiro Fukasaku; Caroline Lesser
  11. The Impact of Structural Policies on Trade-related Adjustment and the Shift to Services By Per Mathis Kongsrud; Isabelle Wanner
  12. Trade Preference Erosion: Expanded Assessment of Countries at Risk of Welfare Losses By Przemyslaw Kowalski; Douglas C. Lippoldt
  13. Trade Policy: Promoting Investment for Development By OECD
  14. Trade Facilitation Reforms in the Service of Development: Country Case Studies By Evdokia Moïsé
  15. Trade Preference Erosion: Potential Economic Impacts By Przemyslaw Kowalski; Douglas C. Lippoldt
  16. Impact of Changes in Tariffs on Developing Countries' Government Revenue By Przemyslaw Kowalski
  17. Regulatory Reform in the Russian Federation: Enhancing Trade Openness through Regulatory Reform By Blanka Kalinova
  18. Analysis of Non-Tariff Measures: Customs Fees and Charges on Imports By OECD
  19. The Cost of Introducing and Implementing Trade Facilitation Measures: Interim Report By Evdokia Moïsé
  20. The Benefits of Liberalising Product Markets and Reducing Barriers to International Trade and Investment: The Case of the United States and the European Union By OECD
  21. Regulatory Reform and Market Openness: Understanding the Links to Enhance Economic Performance By Peter Czaga
  22. The New OECD International Trade Model By Laurence Le Fouler; Annabelle Mourougane; Nigel Pain; Franck Sédillot
  23. Structural Adjustment in Textiles and Clothing in the Post-ATC Trading Environment By Denis Audet
  24. Regional Trading Arrangements and the Multilateral Trading System: Agriculture By OECD
  25. East Asian Economic Integration and its Impact on Future Growth By Phillipa Dee
  26. Managing Request-Offer Negotiations under the GATS: The Case of Environmental Services By Massimo Geloso Grosso

  1. By: James Harrigan
    Abstract: Airplanes are a fast but expensive means of shipping goods, a fact which has implications for comparative advantage. The paper develops a Ricardian three-country model with a continuum of goods which vary by weight and hence transport cost. Comparative advantage depends on relative air and surface transport costs across countries and goods, as well as stochastic productivity. In the model, countries that are far from their export markets will have low wages and tend to specialize in high value/weight products, which will be shipped on airplanes. Less remote exporters will have higher wages, and will tend to specialize in low value/weight products which will be sent by ship, train, or truck. These implications are confirmed using detailed data on U.S. imports from 1990 to 2003. Distance from the US is associated with much higher import unit values, an indication that the model identifies a quantitatively important influence on specialization and trade.
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2005–10
  2. By: Ranjan, Priya; Tobias, Justin
    Abstract: This paper seeks to empirically extend the \textit{gravity model}, which has been widely used to analyze volumes of trade between pairs of countries. We explicitly model the incidence of numerous zeros in our bilateral trade data by taking up the \textit{threshold tobit} variant of the gravity equation [Eaton and Tamura (1994)]. We generalize the basic threshold tobit model by allowing for the inclusion of country-specific effects into the analysis and also show how one can explore the relationship between trade volumes and a given covariate via a nonparametric approach, following the methodology of Koop and Poirier (2004). We use our derived methodology to investigate the impact of a particular aspect of institutions - the enforcement of contracts - on bilateral trade. We find that contract enforcement matters in predicting trade volumes for all types of goods, that it matters most for the trade of differentiated goods, and that the relationship between contract enforcement and trade in our threshold tobit exhibits some nonlinearities.
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2005–10–04
  3. By: Peter Czaga
    Abstract: This study, that investigates two specific types of quantitative restrictions, namely import prohibitions and quotas, is part of a broad reflection aimed at learning more about the nature and scope of non-tariff measures. The analysis reviews information on these measures contained in the WTO Trade Policy Reviews, WTO notifications and in various other trade reports. The objective of the report is to contribute to discussions, particularly on market access for non-agricultural goods, at the WTO, or elsewhere. The research revealed that the use of quotas and prohibitions for economic reasons has declined, but most countries use prohibitions as part of their regulatory frameworks for protecting human safety and health or the environment, and this tendency appears to be increasing. Traders would benefit from greater transparency of these measures. Also, there are import bans hampering the international trade in used goods, whose circumstances and appropriateness in terms of regulatory efficiency merit scrutiny.
    Keywords: non-tariff barriers, prohibitions, quantitative restrictions, quotas, used goods
    Date: 2004–09–27
  4. By: Donald W. Katzner (University of Massachusetts Amherst); Mikhail J. Nikomarvo
    Abstract: This paper traces the history of the failed automobile-trade negotiations between Japan and the United States from the 1970’s to the mid 1990’s. It attributes the failure of those negotiations to a lack of understanding on both sides of not only what was motivating the other side, but also the unalterable cultural, social, and economic constraints under which the other side operated. JEL Categories: F13
    Keywords: automobile industry, US-Japanese trade negotiations
    Date: 2005–10
  5. By: Yoshiro Miwa (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo); J. Mark Ramseyer (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Firms in modern developed economies can choose to borrow from banks or from trade partners. Using first-difference and difference-in-differences regressions on Japanese manufacturing data, we explore the way they make that choice. Whether small or large, they do borrow from their trade partners heavily, and apparently at implicit rates that track the explicit rates banks would charge them. Nonetheless, they do not treat bank loans and trade credit interchangeably. Disproportionately, they borrow from banks when they anticipate needing money for relatively long periods, and turn to trade partners when they face short-term exigencies they did not expect. This contrast in the term structures of bank loans and trade credit follows from the fundamentally different way bankers and trade partners reduce the default risks they face. Because bankers seldom know their borrowers' industries first-hand, they rely on guarantees and security interests. Because trade partners know those industries well, they instead monitor their borrowers closely. Because the costs to creating security interests are heavily front-loaded, bankers focus on long-term debt. Because the costs of monitoring debtors are on-going, trade creditors do not. Despite the enormous theoretical literature on bank monitoring, banks apparently monitor very little.
    Date: 2005–09
  6. By: Chintrakarn, Pandej (SMU); Millimet, Daniel (SMU)
    Abstract: The debate over the environmental consequences of free trade is not only quite heated, but also entails significant policy ramifications. The empirical difficulty with assessing this relationship is the fact that trade and environmental quality may be jointly determined, making it difficult to infer a causality. Recently, cross-sectional analysis at the country level has made use of exogenous determinants of trade to identify the causal effect of trade on the environment, finding moderate evidence of a beneficial impact of expanded trade on the environmental quality. Given the stakes involved, we revisit this finding using subnational data on ‘trade’ flows across US states and several measures of pollution. Our findings are striking, providing further evidence of the beneficial impact of trade.
    Keywords: Bilateral Trade, Environmental Quality, Pollution Haven Hypothesis
    JEL: F18 Q25
    Date: 2005–10
  7. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper identifies non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by developing countries in their trade with developed countries and in South-South trade. The goal is to raise awareness of barriers that interfere with the ability of developing countries to build up trade. Data collected and analysed consist of the academic literature, notifications by developing countries to the Negotiating Group on Market Access for Non- Agricultural Products (NAMA) of the Doha Development Agenda, business surveys, and records relating to trade disputes brought before the World Trade Organization and regional dispute settlement mechanisms. The chapter identifies the categories and types of measures that are most reported and the products affected by the reported measures. Attention is also drawn to developing countries’ forwardlooking export strategies and related potential barriers. Overall, the chapter highlights similarities and differences in barriers reported in the data reviewed and compares barriers reported for trade with developed countries and for trade among developing countries.
    Keywords: market access, non-tariff barriers, developing countries, Doha Development Agenda, NAMA notifications, non-tariff measures, regional integration, south-south trade, surveys, trade disputes
    Date: 2005–06–03
  8. By: Helena Marques (Loughborough University); Sushanta Mallick (Loughborough University)
    Abstract: This paper uses panel data to analyse the extent to which the prices of India’s imports and exports in nine product groups react to exchange rate changes before (1980-90) and after (1991-2001) a change in policy that included the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime and an acceleration of trade liberalisation. It finds that for all the nine groups of Indian industries the null hypothesis of complete pass-through from exchange rate changes into import prices cannot be rejected. On the contrary, the results suggest that Indian exporters appear to have to some degree passed through exchange rate changes into foreign currency export prices in three industry groups in the 1980s and in six groups of industries in the 1990s. The increase in the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass-through in the 1990s, relative to the 1980s, may be partly attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls. Whilst the pass-through into import prices does not exhibit a structural break around 1991, a Chow test revealed the existence of such structural break in pass-through into export prices. The pass-through to import prices seems to be exogenous (determined by external factors), but the pass-through to export prices appears to be endogenous (driven by internal factors, mostly trade and exchange rate policies).
    Keywords: sectoral exchange rate pass-through, pricing-to-market, panel estimation, India
    JEL: F13 F14 F31 F41
    Date: 2004–03
  9. By: Julia Nielson; Daria Taglioni
    Abstract: This study has two components: identification of concrete examples of services exports by developing countries, and quantitative studies on the gains from services liberalisation. While the study is by no means comprehensive, and is subject to many limitations, two fundamental findings emerge. The first of these findings, documented in Part I of the study, is that there is clear evidence that developing countries have important service sector export interests beyond mode 4 (temporary movement of services supplying personnel), being global or regional players in sectors such as business services (out-sourcing), port and shipping services, audiovisual services, telecommunications, construction services and health services. The second of these findings, documented in Part II of the study, is that for most countries, including many developing countries, export-related gains from services liberalisation are neither the only nor the largest basis of expected gains. A large portion of benefits from services liberalisation derive, not from seeking better market access abroad, but from the increased competitiveness and efficiency of the domestic market. Together, the study’s two findings underscore the potential benefits of services liberalisation, both for developed and for developing countries.
    Keywords: exports, services, liberalisation, sector, developing countries, computable general equilibrium, barriers, benefits
    Date: 2004–02–06
  10. By: Jens Andersson; Federico Bonaglia; Kiichiro Fukasaku; Caroline Lesser
    Abstract: The experience of the five examined industries (agro-food in Chile, cut flowers in Kenya, garment in Lesotho and in Mauritius and seafood in Thailand) demonstrates that non-traditional industries can emerge and achieved strong growth rates in very diverse settings in terms of geography and initial economic and social conditions. In most of these cases, the government adopted a relatively export-oriented, business-friendly attitude and adapted its policies as the industries developed. Hence, a key factor for successful structural adjustment has been the pro-active role of government in establishing an enabling economic and policy environment that allows local firms to operate on a level-playing field and strengthen their competitive edge in international markets. This highlights the importance of implementing trade policies in the framework of comprehensive development strategies and establishing a consultative national policy-making process for ensuring a coherent approach to trade and structural adjustment. The case studies also underscore that countries (government and industry) are compelled to constantly adapt in light of new sources of competition, growing wage levels, environmental constraints, technological advances and demanding product and process standards. Policy-makers in most countries under review are aware of this challenge. As a consequence, some of them have taken the initiative to set up specific mechanisms or programmes for further enhancing the competitiveness of existing export sectors and/or promoting emerging non-traditional export industries. L’expérience des cinq filières étudiées (agro-alimentaire au Chili, fleurs au Kenya, vêtements au Lesotho et à Maurice, et fruits de mer en Thaïlande) démontre que des industries non traditionnelles peuvent naître et générer de solides taux de croissance dans les contextes les plus variés de géographie ou de fondamentaux économiques et sociaux. Dans la plupart de ces cas, les pouvoirs publics ont adopté une approche relativement favorable à l’exportation et aux affaires, et adapté leurs politiques au développement de ces activités. Partant, le facteur clé d’un ajustement structurel bénéfique a été la détermination des gouvernements à adapter leur économie et le cadre politique pour permettre aux entreprises d’opérer à un stade approprié et de renforcer leurs avantages comparatifs sur les marchés internationaux. Ce qui souligne l’importance d’inscrire la politique commerciale dans le cadre des stratégies de développement global et de mettre en place, pour assurer une approche cohérente de l’ajustement commercial et structurel, une procédure consultative nationale d’adoption des politiques. Les études de cas soulignent aussi que les pays (pouvoirs publics et entreprises) sont condamnés à s’adapter constamment en fonction des nouvelles sources de concurrence, de la charge salariale croissante, des contraintes de l’environnement, des avancées technologiques, et des exigences de la demande et des progrès. Les décideurs politiques de la plupart des pays passés en revue sont conscients de ce défi. Et c’est pourquoi plusieurs d’entre eux ont pris l’initiative de mettre en oeuvre des mécanismes ou des programmes spécifiques pour renforcer la compétitivité des actuelles filières d’export et/ou pour favoriser l’émergence d’activités exportatrices non traditionnelles.
    Date: 2005–07
  11. By: Per Mathis Kongsrud; Isabelle Wanner
    Abstract: What policy reforms are most urgently needed to remove obstacles to output and employment growth in service sectors and to enhance economies’ ability to adjust to structural change as a result of changing trade patterns? This paper reviews the impact of the structural policy framework conditions on the development of the service sector and economies' adjustment capacities. The paper builds on and summarises a vast body of previous work and briefly reviews policy recommendations given to countries in various surveillance processes in the OECD. <P>Les effets des politiques structurelles sur l’ajustement relatif aux échanges et au changement dans le secteur de services Quelles sont les réformes les plus urgentes pour remédier aux obstacles à la croissance de la production et de l’emploi dans les services et pour faire en sorte que les économies soient mieux à même de s’ajuster au changement structurel résultant de l’évolution des profils d’échanges? Ce document fait le point sur l'impact de la politique structurelle dans le développement du secteur des services et de la capacité d’ajustement des économies. Il s’appuie sur un grand nombre de travaux antérieurs dont il fait la synthèse et résume brièvement les recommandations formulées à l’intention des pays dans le cadre des divers mécanismes de surveillance à l'OCDE.
    Keywords: international trade, réglementation, labour mobility, mobilité du travail, regulations, commerce international, structural policies, politique structurelle, service sector developments, développement du secteur des services
    JEL: F16 F4 J6
    Date: 2005–04–18
  12. By: Przemyslaw Kowalski; Douglas C. Lippoldt
    Keywords: developing countries, CGE simulation, multilateral trade negotiations, nonreciprocal preferences, preference erosion, statistical review, tariff reductions
    Date: 2005–08–18
  13. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report describes the complex and changing interrelationship between trade, domestic investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) and provides examples of good practices in trade policymaking that create a healthy investment climate in developing countries. A two-by-two taxonomy is used to analyse the impact of policies affecting imports and exports in both host and home countries. After describing a typical investment project and its participants, the study identifies issues and practices that trade policymakers may wish to address to ensure that their trade policies attract investors and enhance the benefits of investment for development. The purpose of the document is to develop a framework for an operational and practical guide for trade policymakers. As such, it was circulated as a background document for the OECD Initiative on Investment for Development: A Policy Framework for Investment.
    Keywords: investment, trade policy, exports, trade, development, imports, developing countries, benchmarks, FDI, good practices, home, host, linkages, policy making
    Date: 2005–06–06
  14. By: Evdokia Moïsé
    Abstract: This document presents country studies on customs reforms that have taken place in Mozambique, Angola, Pakistan and Peru. The studies were used as supporting material for the report on "Trade Facilitation Reforms in the Service of Development" (document TD/TC/WP(2003)11/FINAL).
    Keywords: developing countries, reforms, benefits, costs, customs, trade facilitation
    Date: 2005–02–22
  15. By: Przemyslaw Kowalski; Douglas C. Lippoldt
    Abstract: This paper presents the new findings from the on-going work of the OECD project on trade preference erosion. Following a review of the recent literature, the paper develops two main types of analysis. First, a detailed statistical analysis is undertaken drawing on the trade preferences database developed by the Secretariat and covering the Quad countries and Australia. This includes a presentation of the structure of tariff regimes in these key developed countries and identification of countries and sectors that are most reliant on tariff preferences. The second analytical approach uses the standard model and database of the Global Trade Analysis Project to simulate trade liberalisation scenarios that would entail preference erosion. While highlighting a number of cases of preference reliance, the paper underscores the advantages of multilateral liberalisation. Globally and for a majority of developing regions, liberalisation by preference-granting countries will result in positive welfare gains, notwithstanding the effects of preference erosion. In a comparatively small number of cases, however, the analysis points to a risk of net welfare losses under the scenarios modelled here.
    Keywords: developing countries, CGE simulation, multilateral trade negotiations, nonreciprocal preferences, preference erosion, tariff reductions
    Date: 2005–04–26
  16. By: Przemyslaw Kowalski
    Abstract: This paper addresses tariff revenue concerns that some countries have been expressing in the context of the current multilateral trade negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda. This paper: discusses methodological issues associated with estimating revenue impacts; provides impact estimates for a sample of developing countries; links the differences in impacts to cross-country differences in existing tariff regimes as well as properties of formulas for tariff cuts; and, discusses efficient tax replacement policies and past experiences. Additionally, the paper presents results of a simulation of the welfare effects of reducing tariffs and simultaneously replacing lost tariff revenues with revenues from consumption tax. It concludes with some policy implications.
    Keywords: tariffs, CGE simulation, government revenue, multilateral trade negotiations, tariff reductions formulas
    JEL: C68 E61 E62 F13 F14 H20
    Date: 2005–04–18
  17. By: Blanka Kalinova
    Abstract: This study forms part of Russia’s regulatory reform review undertaken under the OECD regulatory reform programme. It describes Russia’s trade environment and its recent trade and foreign investment policy developments with a focus on trade-related regulations and their role in supporting Russia’s market openness. It examines in particular to what extent Russia’s trade regulations comply with the principles of transparency and non-discrimination and facilitate foreign trade operations and international competition. The paper proposes a series of policy recommendations to make Russia’s regulatory framework more market-oriented and trade-andinvestment friendly.
    Keywords: trade, transparency, regulations, liberalisation, trade barriers, Russia, customs, non-discrimination, WTO
    Date: 2005–03–01
  18. By: OECD
    Abstract: This study examines the nature and the extent of use of customs fees and charges that affect imports at borders. It is part of a series of studies that analyse various types of non-tariff measures and the objective of this paper is to contribute to discussions in the Negotiating Group on Market Access (NAMA), the Council on Trade in Goods and elsewhere in the trade policy community. The analysis draws on data collected from WTO Trade Policy Reviews, non-tariff barrier notifications to NAMA, and the UNCTAD TRAINS database and country notes. The study reveals that most types of customs fees and charges on imports are applied ad valorem rather than with regard to the underlying costs of the services rendered. The use of customs fees and charges has also evolved over time: the use of both customs surcharges and consular invoice fees has markedly declined over the last two decades while more countries nowadays charge importers fees for the use of various customs-related services.
    Keywords: non-tariff barriers, custom charges, custom fees, GATT article VIII, non-tariff measures
    Date: 2005–03–08
  19. By: Evdokia Moïsé
    Abstract: This report presents preliminary findings from a series of country surveys on the costs of introducing and implementing trade facilitation measures. It was prepared in response to concerns with respect to the cost implications of a future WTO agreement on trade facilitation and will be complemented in the near future by additional data from a wider range of developing and least-developed countries. The report contains observations with respect to the methodology of assessing trade facilitation costs and highlights common cost features in the various country experiences.
    Keywords: developing countries, capacity building , costs, customs, trade facilitation
    Date: 2004–11–10
  20. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper provides an assessment of the impact of a package of structural reforms in the European Union and the United States on long-run trade and output gains accruing to OECD countries. The package includes reforms that reduce competition-restraining regulations, cut tariff barriers and ease restrictions on foreign direct investment to “best practice” levels in the OECD area. The analysis, which is based on earlier OECD studies, indicates that such reforms could lead to gains in GDP per capita in both transatlantic areas of up to 3 to 3 ½ per cent. Moreover, due to trade linkages, the benefits of reforms in the United States and the European Union would spread to other OECD countries, with an estimated increase in GDP per capita of up to 1½ per cent. As the analysis is confined to a relatively narrow set of policies and abstracts from potential dynamic effects from reform-induced increase in innovation, the overall gains from broad reforms could be significantly higher than reported in the paper. <P>Les bénéfices de la libéralisation des marchés de produits et de la réduction des barrières aux échanges et aux investissements internationaux: Ce document offre une évaluation des réformes globales structurelles en Europe et aux États-Unis sur les échanges et la croissance de long terme dans les pays de l’OCDE. Ces réformes incluent l’ensemble des mesures politiques visant la réduction de la réglementation anti-compétitive, la baisse des barrières tarifaires et des restrictions sur les investissements directs étrangers vers les «meilleures pratiques» observées au sein des pays de l’OCDE. L’analyse, qui s’appuie sur de précédents travaux de l’OCDE, montre que de telles réformes peuvent conduire à une augmentation du PIB par habitant entre 3 et 3 ½ pour cent. De plus, en raison d’effets de transmission via les échanges, le bénéfice des réformes en Europe et aux États-Unis devrait se répandre à l’ensemble des autres pays de l’OCDE conduisant à une augmentation du PIB moyen par habitant de plus de 1 ½ pour cent. Étant donné que l’analyse ne couvre qu’un nombre de mesures spécifiques et exclut les effets dynamiques potentiels de l’innovation, les bénéfices tirés d’un ensemble de reformes beaucoup plus large pourraient bien être plus élevés que ceux reportés dans ce document.
    Keywords: international trade, réglementation, regulations, foreign direct investment, investissement direct étranger, commerce international, productivity and growth, productivité et croissance
    JEL: F13 F21 K2 O4
    Date: 2005–05–26
  21. By: Peter Czaga
    Abstract: This study examines the interconnections between domestic regulatory reform and market openness by drawing on OECD’s earlier work on the regulatory aspects of trade. Part 1 considers how domestic regulations and regulatory reform affect market openness. It shows how with the help of advanced regulatory reform tools and approaches governments can create regulations and regulatory procedures that efficiently meet their policy objectives while at the same time supporting market access. Part 2 demonstrates that international market opening can contribute to facilitating domestic regulatory reform. Trade agreements signed on the multilateral, regional and bilateral levels can promote general principles or specific elements of good regulation and help guide or drive countries' individual regulatory reform efforts. Finally, part 3 analyzes the mutual benefits of regulatory reform and an open multilateral system for trade and investment. It is argued that by increasing domestic economic efficiency, raising the international competitiveness of domestic enterprises and reducing barriers to trade and investment, traderelated regulatory reform enables countries to take better advantage of trade liberalization and of open global markets.
    Keywords: regulatory reforms, domestic regulation, market openness, regionalism
    Date: 2004–12–15
  22. By: Laurence Le Fouler; Annabelle Mourougane; Nigel Pain; Franck Sédillot
    Abstract: This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook. <P>Le nouveau modèle du commerce international de l'OCDE Cette étude présente de façon détaillée la respecification et la réestimation des équations de commerce extérieur (prix et volumes) qui sont utilisées par le Département des Affaires Économiques de l'OCDE pour analyser les développements du commerce mondial. L'impact des facteurs influençant la performance à l'exportation, le taux de pénétration des importations et l'effet du taux de change sur les prix du commerce extérieur des zones OCDE et non OCDE est estimé par le biais de données de panel. Le model présenté a déjà été mis en oeuvre avec succès pour assurer la cohérence globale des prévisions des flux commerciaux publiées dans les Perspectives Économiques de l'OCDE.
    Keywords: forecasting model, international trade prices, international trade volumes, modèle de prévision, prix du commerce extérieur, volumes du commerce extérieur
    JEL: F14 F17 F47
    Date: 2005–08–10
  23. By: Denis Audet
    Abstract: This study focuses on the adjustment challenges facing the textile and clothing industries across the globe. The analytical work was initially suggested during informal consultations between the OECD Trade Committee and Civil Society Organisations. It took two years of extensive discussions in the Working Party of the Trade Committee to deepen understanding of the issues and finalise the study...
    Keywords: trade policy, Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), clothing, customs facilitation, labour adjustment, Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), structural adjustment, technology and innovation, textiles
    Date: 2004–08–13
  24. By: OECD
    Abstract: Following up a 2003 publication by the Trade Committee, this paper examines the treatment of agriculture in regional trading arrangements (RTAs) against the background of treatment under the multilateral trading system (MTS). This paper describes 18 RTAs and its findings may not be generalizeable to the 169 RTAs that have been notified to the WTO. The relationship between the treatment of agriculture in RTAs and that within the MTS is complex. This paper contains illustrates the topography of agricultural treatment within RTAs under four separate headings including: coverage, domestic support, contingency protection and sanitary and phytosanitary regulations. This descriptive analysis is prepared both as a basis for assessing progress on agriculture in RTAs and as frame of reference for considering the treatment of agriculture at the multilateral level.
    Keywords: regionalism, trade and agriculture
    Date: 2005–03–22
  25. By: Phillipa Dee (Australia–Japan Research Centre)
    Abstract: Two propositions appear to be gaining wide currency, given the revealed preference for preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the East Asian region and elsewhere. The first is that economic integration is a good way to promote economic growth. The second is that PTAs, particularly ones that go beyond goods trade, are an effective way to promote economic integration. Yet both propositions are empirical questions. In this paper, a partial evaluation of the evidence suggests caution is called for. Current PTAs appear to be doing little to remove the important impediments to growth in the region. Far greater income gains would come from comprehensive reform of nondiscriminatory impediments to competition, as part of a thorough-going program of unilateral domestic regulatory reform. It may be time to rethink East Asian economic integration as a policy priority, or at least review the way in which it might be pursued.
    Keywords: East Asia, economic integration, growth, preferencial trade agreements, PTA,
    JEL: O16 O19 O24
    Date: 2005–01
  26. By: Massimo Geloso Grosso
    Abstract: This study forms part of on-going OECD work on trade in services, in co-operation with UNCTAD, aimed at assisting WTO Members in managing request-offer negotiations under the GATS. The key objective is to help officials of WTO Members in both gaining a greater insight into the particular issues of importance in the environmental services sector and how they might be approached in the negotiations. The current set of GATS negotiations offers WTO Members an opportunity to achieve greater levels of liberalisation of environmental services, which may lead to significant economic and environmental benefits for all countries. Nevertheless, liberalisation, particularly of environmental infrastructure services, must be appropriately designed and supported by a strong regulatory framework. Making commitments in these services thus raises questions in relation to their nature, although the flexibility provided for in the GATS can be used to schedule them to take account of their characteristics. Risks of market failure to achieve social objectives appear to be less significant for environmental non-infrastructure and support services.
    Keywords: exports, services, environment, regulations, liberalisation, barriers, benefits
    Date: 2005–02–15

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