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on Innovation |
| By: | Luca Repetto; Davide Cipullo; Edward Pinchbeck; Jan Bietenbeck |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how World War I mortality shocks to British communities affected long-run innovation. Linking parish-level military deaths to universal patent data (1895–1979) and inventor records, we compare high- and low-mortality areas. A 10 percent increase in deaths reduces the probability that a parish produces any patent by 0.09–0.12 percentage points and the probability that a parish produces a breakthrough patent by three times as much. Mortality depresses both the entry of new inventors and the productivity of established ones, particularly in frontier and technologically complex fields. Mobility, collaboration, and stronger local innovation ecosystems mitigate these effects, albeit only partially. |
| Keywords: | World War, innovation, human capital, patents, lost generation |
| JEL: | D74 O15 O31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12529 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin (Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Paolo Castelnovo (Department of Economics, University of Insubria and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Federico Fabio Frattini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Francesco Vona (Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel text-based approach to identify CRM-saving innovation using patent data and studies how mineral price signals shape the direction of technological change. Using patent data from 1978–2020, we distinguish technologies that rely on CRMs from those that explicitly aim to reduce their use through efficiency improvements, substitution, or recycling. We provide evidence consistent with the induced-innovation hypothesis: higher mineral prices reallocate inventive effort toward CRM-saving technologies, while having little effect on CRM-reliant innovation. The response strengthens over time and is especially pronounced for battery minerals and rare earth elements. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and are reinforced by complementary identification strategies, including a falsification test and the use of plausibly exogenous supply-side price variation. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition, Critical Raw materials, Patents |
| JEL: | C55 O31 O33 Q55 L72 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.05 |
| By: | Anabela Marques Santos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the spatial distribution of European Union research and innovation (R&I) funding, comparing excellence-oriented (Horizon 2020) and cohesion-oriented (Cohesion Policy) instruments, and analysing the role of governance level within Cohesion Policy. Using NUTS3-level data from the 2014-2020 programing period and spatial econometric models, we find that Horizon 2020 funding is concentrated in regions with high patent intensity, GDP per capita, and knowledge-intensive services, reinforcing cumulative advantage and contributing predominantly to within-country inequalities in access to funding. Cohesion R&I funding exhibits stronger between-country redistribution and integrates socio-economic vulnerability, though its internal allocation varies with governance: national management fosters clustering and positive spillovers, while regional management spreads resources more widely but intensifies intra-national competition. The results underscore the trade-offs inherent in EU R&I funding; policies that prioritise excellence, redistribution, or spatial coordination cannot maximise all objectives simultaneously, with governance choices mediating the balance between concentration, spillovers, and territorial equity. |
| Keywords: | R&I funding; Cohesion policy; Horizon 2020; Governance |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/404059 |
| By: | Dugoua, Eugenie; Noailly, Joelle |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns and mechanisms of global clean technology diffusion over the last two decades. We document four stylized facts: uneven sectoral progress favoring power and light transport; China’s dominance in innovation and manufacturing; the role of modularity in driving cost declines; and limited adoption in developing economies. Through case studies of solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, we analyze how policy and infrastructure enable scale. Finally, we assess emerging challenges for the next phase of diffusion, including critical mineral constraints, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | clean technology diffusion; climate change mitigation; renewable energy; industrial policy; solar photovoltaics; electric vehicles; hydrogen |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 O20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137498 |
| By: | Harashima, Taiji |
| Abstract: | Many empirical studies support the necessity of public funding of science, but endogenous growth models do not necessarily do so. In this paper, I distinguish between investments in research and development (R&D) for “discovery” and “invention” in a framework of an endogenous growth model and show that there is the optimal ratio of discovery to invention in the sense that the highest productivity of producing knowledge is achieved. Because discovery generally does not generate profit, investments in R&D for discovery have to be publicly financed. Therefore, a government has the responsibility to maintain an optimal ratio of discovery to invention to keep the highest rate of endogenous economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous growth; Discovery; Production of knowledge; Public funding of science; R&D |
| JEL: | H41 O32 O33 O38 O40 |
| Date: | 2026–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127672 |
| By: | Garbers, Julio (LISER); Gregory, Terry (LISER) |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel firm-level indicator of Artificial Intelligence adoption in Europe (MAP-AI) by extracting information from more than three million firm websites in Belgium, France, Germany, and Luxembourg between 2016 and 2024 using a Large Language Model. The indicator captures realized AI use as publicly signaled by firms, rather than potential exposure, and distinguishes firms by their role in the AI ecosystem and the type of AI technologies employed. Validation against human-coded benchmarks and external data confirms high accuracy. We show that the share of AI-active firms increased from 1% in 2016 to 12% in 2024, with a marked acceleration after 2022. This growth reflects a structural shift toward widespread adoption and more integrated AI use, including generative AI. AI adoption is concentrated among larger, younger, knowledge-intensive firms in urban regions, with workforce skills emerging as a key driver. Foundational data skills are necessary for adoption, while specialized AI skills—such as machine learning and natural language processing—act as strong complements, highlighting the central role of human capital in AI diffusion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, firm-level data, Large Language Models, AI diffusion, human capital, skills |
| JEL: | O33 C81 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18434 |
| By: | Domenico Dentoni (MBS - MBS School of Business); Marija Roglic (MBS - MBS School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This chapter clarifies the meaning and role of systems mapping in supporting social innovators as they confront complex societal challenges. While recognized for its capacity to visually represent intricate relationships between interconnected elements, systems mapping remains underutilized in management and organization theory and practice. Moreover, ambiguity in the definitions and uses of systems mapping endure also in other scientific fields – such as ecological economics, innovation studies, and sustainability science. Hence, this chapter redefined and highlights the multiple roles of systems mapping in strategizing for social innovation. We distinguish between the meanings of systems mapping as tool, event and process, and between its roles for making sense of complex issues, for deliberating where and how to address them, and for strategizing novel partnerships that address them. From the literature on participatory social innovation processes and the nexus with visual approaches of representing systems, we therefore shed light on the affordances and limitations of systems mapping in fostering multiple pathways of social-ecological transformation across scales. |
| Date: | 2025–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05525573 |
| By: | Francesco Crespi; Nicolò Geri; Dario Guarascio; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between technological capabilities, import dependency, and environmental policies, focusing on the lithium-ion battery supply chain (LBSC) – a critical sector for the net-zero transition. We contribute to the growing literature on the drivers and barriers to accelerating the transition in the following ways. First, we develop an original analytical framework that integrates two recent streams of literature – one focusing on the acceleration of the green transition and the other on structural dependencies and technological sovereignty – to examine potential trade-offs between these objectives. Second, we develop a strategic intelligence analysis of the LBSC allowing to quantify import dependencies and technological capacity gaps at a highly granular product/technology level. This allows to identify critical products and supply chain stages where policy action is needed to avoid the emergence of bottlenecks to the green transition. Third, we examine how technological capabilities influence import dependency, showing under what conditions technological upgrading strengthens competitive positions and mitigates dependency. Finally, we analyse how environmental policy stringency relates to import dependency, assessing whether and in which circumstances environmental goals may conflict with technological sovereignty and strategic autonomy ones. Our findings suggest that technological upgrading can reduce dependencies without compromising environmental goals so that the presumed trade-off between the net-zero transition and structural dependencies does not necessarily hold. In contrast, a welldesigned policy mix, aligning environmental objectives with targeted innovation and industrial policies, can enhance both resilience and the acceleration towards the net-zero transition. |
| Keywords: | Strategic autonomy; Technological capabilities; Net-zero transition; Environmental policy; Lithium-ion batteries; Technological sovereignty |
| JEL: | Q55 O38 Q58 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp276 |
| By: | Jeffrey W. Lockhart; Jamshid Sourati; Feng Shi; James Evans |
| Abstract: | How nations shape the scientific frontier matters for technological competition, but standard metrics, including publication counts, citations, and disruption indices, look backward and fail to distinguish between fundamentally different leadership strategies. We develop and validate two forward-looking model-based measures and apply them to tens of millions of articles since 1990. The first embeds research pathways within an evolving hypergraph of concepts and scientists to identify leadership in emerging areas--work that anticipates where the scientific crowd is heading. The second embeds evolving samples of ideas and disciplines drawn upon in past research to identify leadership in surprising new directions as unexpected combinations become routine and science reorganizes around them. China became the global leader in emerging areas roughly a decade ago, well before it led in volume, reflecting a capacity to detect and amplify nascent consensus at scale. The United States and Europe show the opposite profile: declining emergence shares but persistent leadership in prescient work, especially research bridging disciplinary boundaries. These patterns replicate across databases, attribution methods, and strategic domains, including AI, biotechnology, energy, and semiconductors. Nations lead science by reading the landscape or by reshaping it, and the institutional requirements for each strategy lie in tension. The distribution of these strategies promises to shape the global structure of technological leadership for decades. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.01117 |
| By: | Ignacio Banares-Sanchez; Robin Burgess; Dávid László; Pol Simpson; John Van Reenen; Yifan Wang |
| Abstract: | Do industrial policies that promote clean energy offer a “ray of hope”, increasing a country’s growth and welfare, whilst simultaneously reducing carbon emissions? We study the impact of Chinese solar subsidies whose implementation by city-regions went alongside massive expansion of the sector and a dramatic fall in global solar prices. We construct new city and firm panel data on solar policies, patenting and output. Using synthetic-difference-in-differences 2004-2020, we find production and innovation subsidies were more effective than demand-side (installation) subsidies in generating large and persistent increases in local innovation, net entry, production and exports. Demand policies did, however, reduce local pollution. To examine aggregate effects, we build and structurally estimate a quantitative spatial model with endogenous innovation and heterogeneous productivity across firms and cities, which accounts for business stealing and knowledge spillovers. Counterfactual analysis shows that: (i) local effects remain substantial at the macro level explaining 40%-50% of the aggregate changes in solar innovation, prices and revenues; (ii) social benefits to Chinese citizens exceed subsidy costs by 65% (and double this when environmental benefits are included); and (iii) although all subsidy types increase welfare, innovation subsidies are the most cost-effective. |
| JEL: | H25 L25 L5 L52 N5 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34893 |