nep-ino New Economics Papers
on Innovation
Issue of 2025–09–29
seven papers chosen by
Uwe Cantner, University of Jena


  1. A new approach to measuring invention commercialization: An application to the SBIR program By Carlo Bottai; Gaétan de Rassenfosse; Emilio Raiteri
  2. The anatomy of Green AI technologies: structure, evolution, and impact By Lorenzo Emer; Andrea Mina; Andrea Vandin
  3. The Last Shall Be First: Innovation as a Head-to-Head Race By Patrick Arnold, Marc Möller, Catherine Roux
  4. A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI By Erik Brynjolfsson; Anton Korinek; Ajay K. Agrawal
  5. Advantages and pitfalls of green public procurement as a European strategic tool By Marie-Sophie Lappe; Francesco Nicoli
  6. Does adoption always follow innovation? By Oliwia Kurtyka; Rania Mabrouk
  7. The comparative political economy of the green transition: economic specializations and skills regimes in Europe By Cigna, Luca; Di Carlo, Donato; Durazzi, Niccolò

  1. By: Carlo Bottai (University of Milano–Bicocca); Gaétan de Rassenfosse (Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne); Emilio Raiteri (Eindhoven University of Technology)
    Abstract: Measuring the commercialization of patented inventions remains a key challenge in innovation studies. This paper introduces a novel, web-based method for tracking the commercialization of patented inventions. The method leverages targeted web searches to identify online traces of the commercialization of patented products, offering a scalable alternative to surveys and case studies. We apply this method to patents arising from the U.S. Department of Defense’s Small Business Innovation Research program, linking 3, 070 patents to procurement contracts and assessing their commercialization outcomes. The results indicate that 21.5% of these patents show signs of commercialization, with variations across R&D stages and contract phases. The method provides a systematic way to identify market adoption of patented technologies and can be extended to other contexts where identifying commercialized patents is relevant.
    Keywords: government-funded research; invention commercialization; patents; policy evaluation; web-based evidence
    JEL: O31 O38 O34 L26 H81 C55
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iip:wpaper:28
  2. By: Lorenzo Emer; Andrea Mina; Andrea Vandin
    Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key enabler of innovation against climate change. In this study, we investigate the intersection of AI and climate adaptation and mitigation technologies through patent analyses of a novel dataset of approximately 63 000 Green AI patents. We analyze patenting trends, corporate ownership of the technology, the geographical distributions of patents, their impact on follow-on inventions and their market value. We use topic modeling (BERTopic) to identify 16 major technological domains, track their evolution over time, and identify their relative impact. We uncover a clear shift from legacy domains such as combustion engines technology to emerging areas like data processing, microgrids, and agricultural water management. We find evidence of growing concentration in corporate patenting against a rapidly increasing number of patenting firms. Looking at the technological and economic impact of patents, while some Green AI domains combine technological impact and market value, others reflect weaker private incentives for innovation, despite their relevance for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. This is where policy intervention might be required to foster the generation and use of new Green AI applications.
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.10109
  3. By: Patrick Arnold, Marc Möller, Catherine Roux
    Abstract: Uncertainty about the value of a contested innovation induces leaders and laggards to update their expectations in opposite directions. We characterize situations in which firms that have obtained an initial advantage are not the most likely to achieve final success. In spite of amplifying a leader’s advantage, greater contest intensity facilitates this effect, challenging the view that laggards require support to remain competitive.
    Keywords: innovation contests, learning, competitive balance, leapfrogging
    JEL: C72 D82
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2505
  4. By: Erik Brynjolfsson; Anton Korinek; Ajay K. Agrawal
    Abstract: As we approach Transformative Artificial Intelligence (TAI), there is an urgent need to advance our understanding of how it could reshape our economic models, institutions and policies. We propose a research agenda for the economics of TAI by identifying nine Grand Challenges: economic growth, innovation, income distribution, decision-making power, geoeconomics, information flows, safety risks, human well-being, and transition dynamics. By accelerating work in these areas, researchers can develop insights and tools to help fulfill the economic potential of TAI.
    JEL: A11 O33 O40
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34256
  5. By: Marie-Sophie Lappe; Francesco Nicoli
    Abstract: Green public procurement supports EU climate goals but may conflict with other objectives, creating trade-offs that challenge its effectiveness
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:node_11304
  6. By: Oliwia Kurtyka (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Rania Mabrouk (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: The extent to which innovation is good news for environment depends not only on the research and development incentives but also on adoption stimulus. We analyze firm's choice of abatement technology in vertical chains. A downstream polluting monopoly can sign a contract with an upstream supplier of mature end-of-pipe equipment or develop an in-house clean technology. We show that contracting plays a crucial role in the efficiency of environmental regulation in spurring adoption. We find that polluter's innovation may be undertaken only to increase bargaining power and a share of industry profits he manages to capture. Consequently, polluter's and regulator's interests are not always aligned. The role of regulator as a technology forcing authority is partially confirmed in regions of under-investment. However, the regulator may not be able to trigger innovation and/or adoption if clean technology increases marginal costs too much. On the other hand, regulator may become laxer and oppose innovation in case of over-investment. All these results rely upon the creation of total profits from the integrated vertical structure and the partitioning rule.
    Keywords: Bargaining, Regulation, Vertical chain, End-of-pipe equipment, Clean technology, Abatement technology, Environmental innovation
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05244378
  7. By: Cigna, Luca; Di Carlo, Donato; Durazzi, Niccolò
    Abstract: The green transition is fundamentally transforming contemporary economies and societies. This article investigates how European models of capitalism perform and specialize across the green value chain—conceptualized as innovation, manufacturing, services, and deployment—and how national skill formation systems underpin these specializations. Integrating insights from comparative capitalism literatures with descriptive statistics and principal component analysis (PCA), we develop and test expectations about growth regime‐specific patterns of green specialization and skill profiles. Our findings reveal marked cross‐national variation between green leaders and laggards: Nordic economies characterized by dynamic services and continental manufacturing‐based models are frontrunners in the green transition, while Eastern Europe's FDI‐led regimes and Southern Europe's demand‐led regimes emerge as laggards. Furthermore, PCA results uncover two distinct decarbonization pathways among European green leaders: one group of countries (Austria, Finland, Germany) specializes in green manufacturing, supported by high shares of STEM graduates; another (Denmark, Switzerland, and to a lesser extent Norway and Sweden) focuses on green innovation and dynamic services, sustained by a strong supply of STEM doctorates. This article contributes to political economy debates on the green transition by identifying distinct green specializations and decarbonization pathways across European models of capitalism and by underscoring the growing centrality of high‐level STEM skills in the green transition.
    Keywords: growth regimes; skill formation; global value chains; green transition; comparative political economy
    JEL: N0 R14 J01
    Date: 2025–09–23
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129591

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